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Speaker 2: Return to our other top story here, and it brings
Speaker 2: us to the Supreme Court oral arguments now underway a
Speaker 2: couple of hours now in Trump versus Anderson. This is
Speaker 2: the ballot access case, not to be confused with the
Speaker 2: one about presidential immunity. We're waiting to hear likely from
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court on that as well. But what we
Speaker 2: haven't gotten that far yet today is about primary ballot
Speaker 2: access after he was removed from the ballot by the
Speaker 2: Colorado Supreme Court.
Speaker 3: This brings us back to December.
Speaker 2: This is a case involving the Fourteenth Amendment and it
Speaker 2: has to do with Donald Trump actually engaged in and
Speaker 2: that's the appropriate term to use here, insurrection. Dave Ehrenberg's
Speaker 2: got his eyes on this from his perch in Florida.
Speaker 2: The Palm Beach County State Attorney is with us now
Speaker 2: and David's great to see you it's been a minute.
Speaker 2: I wonder if you can just first before we analyze
Speaker 2: all of this, and we don't need to relitigate what
Speaker 2: happened on January sixth, I want to understand what are
Speaker 2: the questions that the justices are trying to ask here, whether,
Speaker 2: in fact, beginning with the big one, whether in fact
Speaker 2: Donald Trump engaged in insurrection.
Speaker 3: How do you answer that question?
Speaker 4: Well, Joe, good to be with you.
Speaker 5: As expected, the justices are largely avoiding that question. Instead,
Speaker 5: they're dealing with larger constitutional issues such as did the
Speaker 5: framers intend that states would go ahead and do this
Speaker 5: on their own or would Congress have to pass a law?
Speaker 5: Is the Fourteenth Amendment self executing? And although I think
Speaker 5: in the end they will probably say that the fourteenth
Speaker 5: Amendment is self executing, meaning you don't need Congress to
Speaker 5: make it happen, there is still section five of the
Speaker 5: fourteenth Amendment which says that Congress shall enforce this section.
Speaker 5: So what I think the Court's going to do is
Speaker 5: they're going to punt and they're going to say, hey, Congress,
Speaker 5: do your job. Pass some uniform laws so we don't
Speaker 5: have fifty different states going in fifty different directions because
Speaker 5: even the liberal justices were worried that Colorado as one state,
Speaker 5: could decide the election for the whole country and they
Speaker 5: didn't want mass chaos. So I think, to me, the
Speaker 5: only question I have is whether this will be a
Speaker 5: unanimous nine zero opinion that overturns the Colorado Supreme Court case,
Speaker 5: or will it be eight to one with Justice Soda
Speaker 5: Mayor of dissenting, Because it seems like even the liberal justices,
Speaker 5: with the exception of possibly Soda Mayor, are going to
Speaker 5: go along with the majority of the conservatives on this one.
Speaker 3: Interesting. This is.
Speaker 2: A pretty interesting moment for this court, and I know
Speaker 2: that at least the conventional wisdom is they want to
Speaker 2: be very careful here. The fourteenth Amendment really just about
Speaker 2: the Civil War, Dave, because a lot of people seem
Speaker 2: to think so.
Speaker 5: Well, it's about preventing insurrectionists from getting into power again.
Speaker 4: I mean, it was.
Speaker 5: Written in response to the Civil War, but then it
Speaker 5: was not meant just to pertain to that. This was
Speaker 5: meant to pertain to any traders in government. They didn't
Speaker 5: want any future insurrectionists, any traders to be elected to office.
Speaker 5: People who were in office at the time of an
Speaker 5: insurrection and then later tried to stay in office.
Speaker 4: They didn't want those folks.
Speaker 5: Now, one question, one issue that Trump's layers are making
Speaker 5: is that they want him to be exempt from the
Speaker 5: Fourteenth Amendment because they'd like to say that the Fourteenth Amendment,
Speaker 5: Section three does not include the president. So what they're
Speaker 5: trying to say is that the framers of the amendment
Speaker 5: were so worried about having insurrectionists lead the way in
Speaker 5: our government except for being president. Like they could be senators,
Speaker 5: they can be. They don't want them to be senators.
Speaker 5: They don't want to be congressmen. But it's okay or
Speaker 5: an insurrection is to be the president. That defies common sense.
Speaker 5: So I think that argument is a loser for Trump's side.
Speaker 5: I think ultimately, though, the Supreme Court is going to say,
Speaker 5: come on, we can't have fifty different states going in
Speaker 5: fifty different directions.
Speaker 4: This would be mass chaos.
Speaker 5: Let Congress establish some uniform set of rules here.
Speaker 2: If the Court David has to consider whether Donald Trump
Speaker 2: engaged in an insurrection, it also has to establish whether
Speaker 2: January sixth was an insurrection.
Speaker 5: Right, they don't actually have to go into whether Trump
Speaker 5: engage in insurrection. That would be an embarrassing review because look,
Speaker 5: all the justices in Colorado, even the one trial court
Speaker 5: judge that rule for Trump, all agree that he engage
Speaker 5: in insurrection. The Supreme Court is not going to tackle that.
Speaker 5: They're going to avoid it, and they're just going to
Speaker 5: do with constutional issues because if they did deal with it,
Speaker 5: it would get really messy, and they don't have to.
Speaker 5: They don't like to get their hands dirty where they
Speaker 5: don't have to. One thing I musty, Joe, is that
Speaker 5: I'm a little disturbed that Justice Clarence Thomas not only
Speaker 5: is sitting on the bench for this case despite what
Speaker 5: seems to me having a conflict because his wife was
Speaker 5: part of the whole insurrection attempt, but he also asked
Speaker 5: the very first question from the bench.
Speaker 4: And so it just shows.
Speaker 5: You why so many people have a low estimation of
Speaker 5: the High Court.
Speaker 2: Dick Durbin had called on him that share of the
Speaker 2: Judiciary Committee in the Senate to do that very thing
Speaker 2: and recuse himself by Monday. Dave Ehrenberg, Donald Trump is
Speaker 2: also expected, and it could come before then to ask
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court to rule on this immunity claim.
Speaker 3: Where do you see that going.
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, I think he's going to lose there.
Speaker 5: But the question is how long will the Supreme Court
Speaker 5: take to act. Now, they could just accept the review
Speaker 5: or accept the petition and then deny the review, and
Speaker 5: hopefully that'll happen because that will speed things up and
Speaker 5: then we can get to the trial before the election.
Speaker 5: On the other hand, they could sit on it and
Speaker 5: they could review it, and they could make it impossible
Speaker 5: to try this case before the election. It's all in
Speaker 5: the hands of the Supreme Court. My best guess is
Speaker 5: that they don't want to wade into this one much either,
Speaker 5: especially because the DC Circuit Court of Appeals issued a
Speaker 5: very comprehensive, very strong opinion that I think the Supreme
Speaker 5: Court is.
Speaker 4: Just going to defer to.
Speaker 5: And when that happens, because I think it's a when,
Speaker 5: I think, then it's game on in DC and Judge
Speaker 5: Chuckkin is going to move forward with that trial for
Speaker 5: election interference, perhaps sometime in the late spring.
Speaker 2: So what's the most likely scenario then, as you just outline,
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court decides to not take up the case
Speaker 2: and just just let it lie where it is in
Speaker 2: the appeals court, or they in fact uphold that ruling.
Speaker 5: Is there a difference, Yes, One is whether they take
Speaker 5: it up, which is called cerciori or CERT. Well, they
Speaker 5: grant CERT, you need four judge justices is to grant
Speaker 5: CERT out of the nine. I don't think they're going
Speaker 5: to grant it because of the strength of the lower
Speaker 5: court ruling, but they could, and then if they do,
Speaker 5: then there'll be a built in stay and then we
Speaker 5: wait for an opinion on the merits, and that would
Speaker 5: take a lot longer. So a lot depends, not necessarily
Speaker 5: how they will rule, because I don't think there's a
Speaker 5: chance in the world they're going to give a president
Speaker 5: absolute immunity like Trump is seeking.
Speaker 4: But Trump's ttrategy really is delayed, delayed delay.
Speaker 5: And if they grant CERT and they take a long
Speaker 5: time to review and make a decision, then Trump will
Speaker 5: win by losing.
Speaker 3: Wow, do you have timeline in mind?
Speaker 2: I know you must hate being asked that, because nobody
Speaker 2: knows what the heck the Supreme Court is going to do.
Speaker 3: It can do whatever it wants, but will it be.
Speaker 2: Compelled to rule quickly on both of these Fourteenth amendments
Speaker 2: and presidential immunity?
Speaker 5: Yes, they see what's going on just like the rest
Speaker 5: of us. They know how important this is to get
Speaker 5: this done before the election, and I think they want to.
Speaker 5: I mean, just Chief Justice Roberts cares so deeply about
Speaker 5: the legitimacy of the Court. He wants people to buy
Speaker 5: into the Court as an a political institution. But if
Speaker 5: they sit on their hands and delay this thing so
Speaker 5: that he cannot be tried until after the election, they
Speaker 5: will look very political. So I think the Chief Justice
Speaker 5: is going to make sure this happens sooner than later.
Speaker 5: And I do believe that the two cases and only
Speaker 5: two cases involving Trump that will be heard before the
Speaker 5: election will be the DC case in front of Judge
Speaker 5: chuck In. I think that's the most powerful of the
Speaker 5: two cases. And then the second case, I think the
Speaker 5: New York case involving the Stormy Daniels hush money payments,
Speaker 5: will be heard before the election. The other two criminal cases,
Speaker 5: the mar Lago documents case, which I do believe is
Speaker 5: the strongest of all the cases, that's got Judge.
Speaker 4: Cannon, and she's slow walking that case.
Speaker 5: That's not going to be heard before the election, and
Speaker 5: the Fulton County case with all the issues with Fannie
Speaker 5: Willis and conflicts and all the complex Rico issues that's
Speaker 5: not going to be heard before the election either.
Speaker 3: Amazing.
Speaker 2: I don't know how you do that off the top
Speaker 2: of your head. Still great insights from Dave Ahrenberg. Let
Speaker 2: us know when you're back in the capitol. Palm Beach
Speaker 2: County State Attorney with us here on Balance of Power.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington with a lot more straight ahead.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 6: Here we are indeed on both Bloomberg Television and radio.
Speaker 6: Thank you so much as always, and Joe, we were
Speaker 6: just discussing here on set the idea that so much
Speaker 6: has happened over the course of just a few days
Speaker 6: after months of build up, months it took to actually
Speaker 6: get the text of the deal that would combine border
Speaker 6: security with aid for US allies. It was launched or
Speaker 6: released on Sunday, fell apart almost instantly finally was killed
Speaker 6: for real last night, and then we see I guess
Speaker 6: a resurrection of at least parts of the package that
Speaker 6: were not border security related. Now pass it cloture on
Speaker 6: the Senate floor.
Speaker 3: Well done, that's what is that?
Speaker 6: An accurate summary?
Speaker 7: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Look, the ambassador to Ukraine is in town today, the
Speaker 2: ambassador Ukrainian ambassador to the US. To be clear, We're
Speaker 2: going to spend some time with her later. This is
Speaker 2: a critical moment for Ukraine. We know it's a critical
Speaker 2: moment for Israel. No one talks about Taiwan in this bill. Yeah,
Speaker 2: but apparently the border provisions that Republicans demanded turned out
Speaker 2: to be the poison pill for Republicans and that's getting
Speaker 2: to be hard to decipher.
Speaker 6: Yes, it is confusing to the point you raised a
Speaker 6: few minutes ago, though, as Chuck Schumer just pointed out
Speaker 6: the possibility potentially of amendments to this bill, perhaps you
Speaker 6: could see some border related measures put back in after
Speaker 6: they were killed us.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, you figure that out. You let us know.
Speaker 2: Maybe Megan's gully will look, Megan was just cranking on
Speaker 2: this story in the newsroom about two minutes ago. The
Speaker 2: story that you'll read on this terminal in online and
Speaker 2: is with us now. She helps to run our congressional
Speaker 2: coverage here at Bloomberg. This is like the hand of
Speaker 2: the end of the horror movie that comes popping out
Speaker 2: of the water, maybe with one limb another limb missing
Speaker 2: in this case. If it passed the procedural vote, does
Speaker 2: that indicate that it will pass the full Senate.
Speaker 8: Yes, it most likely will pass the full Senate. They
Speaker 8: overcome the major hurdle. The issue, though, is what happens
Speaker 8: in the House. It needs to pass the House too,
Speaker 8: and we've already heard from Speaker Johnson that he will
Speaker 8: not bring this bill up. They're still clinging in the House.
Speaker 8: So House Republicans to their much stricter border language, and
Speaker 8: they're saying, we're not doing anything on this until we
Speaker 8: get what we want on the border. What was in
Speaker 8: the very short lived deal that we saw Sunday and
Speaker 8: that was ultimately killed yesterday doesn't go further far enough
Speaker 8: for them, but it's dead on arrival with Democrats. The
Speaker 8: Republican language.
Speaker 6: HR two is what we're talking about, the border bill
Speaker 6: that they passed months ago, that never even got a
Speaker 6: vote on the Senate floor. Why not just put it
Speaker 6: up for a vote and see if it passes, because
Speaker 6: theoretically it wouldn't get the requisite support of sixty votes
Speaker 6: in the Senate, right, so why not just call the bluff.
Speaker 8: Well, anytime you put something on the floor, people are
Speaker 8: taking risks right when they especially in an election year,
Speaker 8: when they vote. So if you are Kirson Cinema, for instance,
Speaker 8: who hasn't yet decided whether she's running for reelection or not,
Speaker 8: she's from a border state, this is a huge issue
Speaker 8: in her district. She doesn't want to vote on the
Speaker 8: Republican only bill because that then could be used against
Speaker 8: her as a vote against immigration changes. So I think
Speaker 8: that a lot of that, a lot of this election
Speaker 8: year politics is what's factoring in here. This is why
Speaker 8: things don't tend to get done, particularly in presidential election
Speaker 8: yeers on.
Speaker 2: Capitol Hill, Steve Danes, who chairs the NRSC, is telling
Speaker 2: members to vote against this or was and I suspect
Speaker 2: he will again if this comes to the floor, which
Speaker 2: we expect that it will, well that end up having
Speaker 2: a corrosive effect here as he reminds these members they
Speaker 2: want to run on the border if you vote for this,
Speaker 2: and of course we don't know what changes might go
Speaker 2: into the bill. You're effectively telling people that you're good
Speaker 2: for this with this money going out the door without
Speaker 2: securing the border.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 8: So Steve Danes has a much different mandate than Mitch McConnell,
Speaker 8: per se. He's trying to protect these Republicans who are
Speaker 8: running and immigration is becoming quickly the top issue, particularly
Speaker 8: in these border states, as our own polling has demonstrated.
Speaker 8: So what Steve Danes is saying is we don't want
Speaker 8: to have these candidates in a position where they're making
Speaker 8: a vote that can come back to haunt them in
Speaker 8: the general election. If you're Mitch McConnell, you're thinking he's
Speaker 8: made statements on the floor on an almost daily basis
Speaker 8: on the need to get money to Ukraine. That is
Speaker 8: what he is being driven by as well, as you know,
Speaker 8: from his standpoint, this is the direct that they need
Speaker 8: to go in order to keep the Senate in November.
Speaker 8: You have different, you have different.
Speaker 3: But that can change votes.
Speaker 8: Yes, yes, oh sure. If you're running for re election
Speaker 8: in the swing state and the chairman of the Republican
Speaker 8: Committee there is telling you this is not a great Yeah,
Speaker 8: you might listen.
Speaker 6: Well, and that speaks to what you were talking about earlier,
Speaker 6: not just with Senator Cinema, but if you're Shared Brown
Speaker 6: or John Tester, who are in these potentially flippable seats,
Speaker 6: then it's probably pretty difficult for you to vote against
Speaker 6: any vorder related measure. Absolutely, there's another individual I want
Speaker 6: to raise here because you talked about days, who potentially
Speaker 6: will encourage people to vote against this. Rand Paul is
Speaker 6: suggesting that this is not something he's going to allow
Speaker 6: to happen in a quick manner, because sure, you need
Speaker 6: sixty votes to pass a bill, but the way the
Speaker 6: Senate works, you need unanimous consent to do so quickly. Yes,
Speaker 6: So what kind of timeline realistically are we looking out
Speaker 6: here if he makes good on that threat.
Speaker 8: So we're coming up on a two week recess for
Speaker 8: the Senate, and as I've said before, the smell of
Speaker 8: jet fumes is a powerful motivator on Capitol Hill. I'm
Speaker 8: not making any plans for Saturday.
Speaker 3: I will say that I think that the.
Speaker 8: Senate will be in and working probably that day.
Speaker 3: Well, keep that in mind. We'll be here too, maybe.
Speaker 2: Megan Scully, thank you great reporting. Help us figure this
Speaker 2: out as we make our way through it, because it's
Speaker 2: getting to be pretty complicated. We haven't talked about a
Speaker 2: funding bill either, Kaylee before Oh, there's that three weeks
Speaker 2: from now a government shutdown could be starting partial partial
Speaker 2: shutdown by the eighth, maybe full shutdown. I just don't
Speaker 2: know if this is a crowd that's going to be
Speaker 2: in the business of writing spending bills between now and then.
Speaker 6: Well, if you can't pass a bipartisan piece of legislation
Speaker 6: that actually was pretty much negotiated over the course of
Speaker 6: months actively versus spending bills that I'm not really sure
Speaker 6: anyone's actively working on because we're all focused on this
Speaker 6: kind of stuff, how are you going to get it
Speaker 6: together in a couple of weeks with enough.
Speaker 3: How about that enough support?
Speaker 2: I have no idea. I look, maybe I'm a skeptic.
Speaker 2: Let's put that aside for now.
Speaker 6: Well, and keeping in mind that after next Tuesday, the
Speaker 6: margin in the House could be different. Speaker Mike Johnson's
Speaker 6: already having difficulty getting things done, and yet, uh.
Speaker 2: What if Tom Swazi is the next memory of the House,
Speaker 2: which is entirely possible. And the reason why Kaylee points
Speaker 2: to this is because we're yeah, we've got an election
Speaker 2: next week, and there are new numbers out today. This
Speaker 2: is the first credible poll we've seen on New York Three.
Speaker 2: It's coming from Sienna College. Did you see these numbers?
Speaker 2: It's pretty close, actually, Kaylee, and Sienna is working with
Speaker 2: Newsday on this. Remember this is the seat held by
Speaker 2: George Santos. Tom Swazi in this poll leads Mazi Pillup
Speaker 2: by only four.
Speaker 6: Points, yes, forty eight to forty four, so.
Speaker 2: Pretty close to within the margin here. If you're watching
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube, you can see what
Speaker 2: we're talking about here. As we turn to Don Levy
Speaker 2: for his experience. You know, Don was rated the nation's
Speaker 2: top polster by ABC and five thirty eight.
Speaker 3: That is quite a distinction. Don.
Speaker 2: It's great to have you with us here on Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: Thank you for joining us. What's going to happen next
Speaker 2: week in New York three?
Speaker 7: Close rays, As you point out right now, in our poll,
Speaker 7: we have Tom Swazi, the former congressman, up by four
Speaker 7: points over Mazzi Pillop, the Republican challenger who has a
Speaker 7: really engaging biography. And when we start to break this
Speaker 7: down by you know, where voters think these candidates are
Speaker 7: going to be better. You have opposite sides of the coin.
Speaker 7: Voters tend to feel as though Mazzi Pillup is better
Speaker 7: on the issue of immigration, you know what in New
Speaker 7: York is called the influx of migrants. Also on taxes,
Speaker 7: they prefer Pillop to Swazi. But you flip that around
Speaker 7: and Swase has an enormous lead amongst voters on issues
Speaker 7: like protecting democracy and on the very important issue in
Speaker 7: this of addressing abortion. So voters really have two different
Speaker 7: views of these candidates right now a small lead for Swase.
Speaker 6: Well, is this, then, don kind of a litmus test
Speaker 6: for the wider general election in November when the issues
Speaker 6: that you just mentioned border security and the economy, on
Speaker 6: the one hand, the big talking points for Republicans threats
Speaker 6: to American democracy and abortion rights the talking point for
Speaker 6: Democrats depending on how New York three goes, what issue
Speaker 6: it turns out came out on top. Should we read
Speaker 6: that straight through to November?
Speaker 7: I think we're going to absolutely read it that way.
Speaker 7: Whether that's fair or not, I'm not quite sure, but
Speaker 7: we're going to read it that way. I think we
Speaker 7: have to add another wrinkle to this story is that
Speaker 7: in this poll, even though these are special election voters,
Speaker 7: these are people who are going to turn out on
Speaker 7: a Tuesday in February. We're thinking that turnout will be
Speaker 7: no more than twenty five percent. Know that this is
Speaker 7: a district that in a presidential year this year, we're
Speaker 7: probably going to be looking at six two to sixty
Speaker 7: five percent. Still, we asked these voters, in addition to
Speaker 7: who are you going to vote for on Tuesday to thirteenth,
Speaker 7: if your vote for president was right now, would you
Speaker 7: vote for Joe Biden or Donald Trump? And this district
Speaker 7: moves nine points in Trump's erection. So instead of a
Speaker 7: four point Democratic advantage when we pit Biden against Trump,
Speaker 7: Trump is five points up in this district amongst these
Speaker 7: highly motivated special election VOTs. So again, if indeed it
Speaker 7: turns out that Swazi wins by this four and to
Speaker 7: whatever extent there are any exit polls at all, and
Speaker 7: these very same voters would prefer Trump, that's going to
Speaker 7: weigh heavily on the national discussion moving forward.
Speaker 2: Don we heard every day while George Santos was still
Speaker 2: in office, and there was an effort to have him
Speaker 2: ousted starting about a day after he got here, that
Speaker 2: he was ruining the district for Republicans for the foreseeable future.
Speaker 2: Does this tell us that the people of New York
Speaker 2: third are forgiving to the Republican Party because they have
Speaker 2: blamed the man?
Speaker 7: Well, certainly, the voters in New York three have a
Speaker 7: very strong Republican base. The Republican Party has a tremendously
Speaker 7: effective ground game there. Joe Biden is not popular in
Speaker 7: New York three. He's about eighteen points underwater in his favorability.
Speaker 7: And some of these issues, taxes protecting New York three
Speaker 7: and New York in general from what is seen in
Speaker 7: the district as an uncontrollable influx of migrants, and also
Speaker 7: the issue of safety and crime in general. These are
Speaker 7: all issues that have worked in New York in general.
Speaker 7: You remember that Lee Zelden came within six points a
Speaker 7: race for governor against our governor Kathy Focal in a
Speaker 7: state with a two to one democratic advantage. So New York,
Speaker 7: although historically bright blue, is starting to trend a little
Speaker 7: bit towards the purple tone, especially in a place like
Speaker 7: New York three.
Speaker 6: Well, and when we Joe was talking about the candidates
Speaker 6: in question here and how it's coming after George Santos,
Speaker 6: who obviously no longer is in Congress and can't be
Speaker 6: considered an incumbent here. But when we think about the
Speaker 6: body of Congress and the view of it, I also
Speaker 6: noticed you pulled voters on the idea that Swaz used
Speaker 6: to be in Congress, and the question you asked was
Speaker 6: new energy and new ideas representing us in Congress. Do
Speaker 6: voters think that's needed? Fifty eight percent said yes. Should
Speaker 6: that be a warning for all incumbents?
Speaker 7: Well, certainly a warning for Tom Swas Tom Swazi is
Speaker 7: known in this district, voters, in many cases a majority
Speaker 7: feel has always had his chance. He was a three
Speaker 7: term congressman. Prior to that, he was a county exec
Speaker 7: in Nassau County, So there is a little bit of
Speaker 7: we've seen this guy now. At the same time, you know,
Speaker 7: Tom Swase has his backers. And when we asked voters
Speaker 7: about some of the normal work of Congress people issues
Speaker 7: that are important in this district nine to eleven, relief,
Speaker 7: energy issues. The folks in New York three see Tom
Speaker 7: Swazi as being probably more effective than Mazi Pillop. So
Speaker 7: there is some anti incumbent and in some ways Swazi
Speaker 7: is representing more of the incumbent than of course his Pillop,
Speaker 7: But still there's an undergirding of strength that Swazi has
Speaker 7: in the districts he's known. This is a district that
Speaker 7: felt as though they got blindsided. Mazi Pillop, although her
Speaker 7: biography has been really well vetted, has not been front
Speaker 7: and center around the district. They're debating tonight, the first debate.
Speaker 7: It's the first time that Swazi and Pillop will appear
Speaker 7: on the same stage. So there are still some voters
Speaker 7: who have not been fully introduced to Pillop, despite the
Speaker 7: amount of money that her campaign and to a greater extent,
Speaker 7: Swazi has spent trying to tell the voters of the
Speaker 7: district who these candidates are. Swazi says he's a common
Speaker 7: sense vs. Problem solver who's going to go do the
Speaker 7: work of this district in Congress. The district knows him.
Speaker 7: Mazzi Pillop is an unknown person, an engaging biography, and
Speaker 7: rides this wave of an anti Biden sentiment of concern
Speaker 7: over crime, concern over migrants. It's going to be a
Speaker 7: close election that's going to come down to turnout. In
Speaker 7: our poll, we have the turnout being equal percentages of
Speaker 7: Democrats and Republicans. We do that because we anticipate that
Speaker 7: Republican ground game really getting Republicans out. If this turnout
Speaker 7: looked like an election year. In an election year, the
Speaker 7: Democrats have a ten to eleven point advantage in turnout.
Speaker 7: So Thomas Swazi has already said if he were not
Speaker 7: to prevail in the special, he's going to run again
Speaker 7: in November. An election year turnout, he might have a
Speaker 7: better opportunity than he has this coming Tuesday, still very close,
Speaker 7: four point lead for Swazi.
Speaker 2: All right, we brought you the authority here from Siena College.
Speaker 2: He's the director of Sienna's research Institute, Don Levy. Great
Speaker 2: to have you, Don. This sounds like an awfully important
Speaker 2: debate tonight. We appreciate your sharing your work with us
Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: Don't be a stranger.
Speaker 2: I want to hear from Don next time they do
Speaker 2: it next absolutely big poll on the presidential race, which
Speaker 2: will be later on this month. I'm Joe Matthew alongside
Speaker 2: Kaylee Lines on the Fastest show in Politics. Thanks for
Speaker 2: being with us on the radio, on YouTube, and on TV.
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Speaker 6: Joe and I indeed are live on both Bloomberg TV
Speaker 6: and radio in Washington when there has been a lot
Speaker 6: to discuss over recent days. But something Joe we should
Speaker 6: note as well is the issue of the Congressman Matt Rosendale,
Speaker 6: who apparently is jump into the Montana Senate race, one
Speaker 6: that could be one of the most closely watched in
Speaker 6: twenty twenty four because the incumbent Democrat John Tester could
Speaker 6: be vulnerable. But you get a Republican actual primary contest,
Speaker 6: maybe things look different. And we all woke up this
Speaker 6: morning to news that the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson,
Speaker 6: might be endorsing Rosendale for the job. And then they
Speaker 6: pulled it.
Speaker 2: This is really funny if you like the back room
Speaker 2: yeah drama here Mitch McConnell, the Senate Leadership Fund had
Speaker 2: gone with a different candidate here. So you wonder if
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson was poking Mitch McConnell in the eye or
Speaker 2: what the whole point of this.
Speaker 6: Was, well, there's certainly been a lot of poking between
Speaker 6: the two chambers going on in recent days. We know
Speaker 6: that to be sure. But actually the Congressman Rosendale weighed
Speaker 6: in on x just a few minutes ago, saying, Speaker
Speaker 6: Johnson and I have always had a great relationship. I
Speaker 6: am thankful for his continued to support, going on to say,
Speaker 6: Mitch McConnell and the DC cartel are terrified about me
Speaker 6: going to the US Senate. They know they can't control me.
Speaker 6: They know I won't vote for McConnell as a leader. Unbelievable,
Speaker 6: there's the latest on that.
Speaker 3: Rick Davis must have thoughts on this, Sure he does.
Speaker 2: Republican strategist who's been in the throes of a lot
Speaker 2: of back and forth in the Senate. Of course, Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Politics contributor, what do you make of this, Rick, What
Speaker 2: is Speaker Mike Johnson doing.
Speaker 9: Well? Mike Johnson is cawtaling to Donald Trump, which we've
Speaker 9: seen a lot of lately. There's no other explanation for
Speaker 9: him to get involved in a Senate primary as Speaker
Speaker 9: of the House than if he's just towing someone else's load.
Speaker 9: The reality is Mitch McConnell in the entire Republican Caucus
Speaker 9: need two seats. They need Tester's seat this race, and
Speaker 9: they need West Virginia, which is almost a foregone conclusion.
Speaker 9: So the Tester race is probably the most important race
Speaker 9: in America for Mitch McConnell and the Republicans to regained
Speaker 9: the majority. And they went out of their way to
Speaker 9: recruit Tim Shee to be that candidate, knowing after the
Speaker 9: twenty twenty two elections that candidates matter in these candidates
Speaker 9: and Donald Trump hands selected like Rosendale lost to Democrats,
Speaker 9: and so this was the hope that they could get
Speaker 9: competitive candidates to be in these seats. And this Rosendale's
Speaker 9: continued persistence in the primary just ties up the race,
Speaker 9: expends needed resources for a general election, and frankly is
Speaker 9: a lifeline to Democratic Tester. So it made no sense
Speaker 9: why he would stick his nose into it. It makes
Speaker 9: a lot of sense why the Speaker got his nose
Speaker 9: punched and went back into his turf. And so now
Speaker 9: we'll see whether or not Rosendale can mount any kind
Speaker 9: of real significant challenge against Shihi.
Speaker 6: Okay, so maybe the Speaker shouldn't have cared as much
Speaker 6: about this racer and his vocal about that. But Rick,
Speaker 6: we know that he definitely cares about the race that's
Speaker 6: ongoing right now in the third District of New York.
Speaker 6: We were just speaking to Don Levy of Siena College
Speaker 6: about this, because there is that special election to replace
Speaker 6: George Santos, who was kicked out of the House of Representatives,
Speaker 6: coming up quickly next week. When we're talking about a
Speaker 6: speaker in Mike Johnson, who already has had great difficulty
Speaker 6: getting anything done, including the impeachment of the Homeland Security
Speaker 6: Secretary attempted earlier this week in the Israel Aid standalone
Speaker 6: package that also was attempted and failed earlier this week.
Speaker 6: What changes for him if this seat flips to the Democrat.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I know. I mean, it's like the nightmare scenario.
Speaker 9: He started with the smallest margin in the history of
Speaker 9: a major party control of the House, and it's only
Speaker 9: gotten smaller since he's been elected Speaker, which hasn't been
Speaker 9: for that long. So it's a disaster. Democrats see this
Speaker 9: as just another opportunity to hold things up in the House.
Speaker 9: They're on defense, and frankly, Republicans if they lose another
Speaker 9: seat like this one they're going to be on defense
Speaker 9: to and nothing's going to get done. And it really
Speaker 9: does portend, as Joe and you mentioned earlier, a real
Speaker 9: crisis potentially with the funding a government, because right now
Speaker 9: there's no plan publicly announced by the Speaker on how
Speaker 9: he's going to actually knit together, you know, some vehicle
Speaker 9: that allows the government to be funded, and certainly not
Speaker 9: before the deadlines that he's self imposed on these CRS
Speaker 9: continuing resolutions, and so I don't know, I mean, it's
Speaker 9: a very big problem coming up. I know we've all
Speaker 9: been focused on the supplemental and the immigration package, and
Speaker 9: those are incredibly important, but nothing is more important than
Speaker 9: funding the government.
Speaker 2: You've been of the mind that they can pull this
Speaker 2: out of the fire here, Rick, Are you starting to
Speaker 2: get concerned because we've got a recess coming and not
Speaker 2: a lot of time to write these spending bills.
Speaker 9: Yeah, trying to legislate like this in an election year
Speaker 9: is crazy, right, I mean, Speakers and leader in the
Speaker 9: past say, you know, like we got to get all
Speaker 9: our work done on time in an election year for
Speaker 9: president because nothing ever happens in the election year. It's
Speaker 9: just too political. And we saw just that happen, you know,
Speaker 9: with this immigration package. I mean, Republicans demand an immigration package,
Speaker 9: they get one, and then they have to vote against
Speaker 9: it makes them look foolish. Republicans extend the budget until
Speaker 9: you know, the first quarter of this year, and now
Speaker 9: they're going to have a hard time finding the votes
Speaker 9: for it. It is a no brainer to package together
Speaker 9: these appropriations bills and pass the budget. They were supposed
Speaker 9: to have done that by September thirtieth, and they have
Speaker 9: been just kicking the can ever since then. They have
Speaker 9: a top line negotiated agreement, so the hard part of
Speaker 9: knowing how much you're going to spend has already been done,
Speaker 9: and the fact that you then apply that to each
Speaker 9: of these appropriations bills is not that hard a task.
Speaker 9: But we just don't see the committees doing the work
Speaker 9: to get those things passed. Maybe it all gets thrown
Speaker 9: into an omnibus. That would be certainly an easy way
Speaker 9: to get it done on time, say on time at
Speaker 9: this time, and maybe this is what the speakers. Maybe
Speaker 9: even his last act will be to fund the government.
Speaker 6: That would be saying something after he's only been the
Speaker 6: speaker for one hundred or so days. In bibment in
Speaker 6: March will be at what maybe one hundred and fifty
Speaker 6: and Kevin McCarthy this.
Speaker 2: Prospect, is it going to be a state of the
Speaker 2: Union or is it going to be a state of
Speaker 2: the Union without Speaker Johnson standing behind sitting behind Joe Biden.
Speaker 6: Can the State of the Union even go on if
Speaker 6: the government.
Speaker 3: Has partially sure? Great questions.
Speaker 6: I guess Congress keeps doing its work right.
Speaker 2: Not necessarily if they're not in session. In fact, I
Speaker 2: think Rick was encouraging Joe Biden to do the speech
Speaker 2: from the White House?
Speaker 3: Am I right?
Speaker 7: Rick?
Speaker 9: Yeah?
Speaker 4: Absolutely?
Speaker 9: I mean the President does not actually have to be
Speaker 9: in the well of the House of Representatives to give
Speaker 9: the State of the Union. In fact, they used to
Speaker 9: just send over a memo and never even did the speech.
Speaker 9: So the reality is, if his political came pain prevails,
Speaker 9: they would say, absolutely, you got to talk about the
Speaker 9: state of the Union because it's messed up and without
Speaker 9: your leadership is not going to get any better. And
Speaker 9: so show leadership by giving the speech sitting in the
Speaker 9: Oval Office behind the resolute desk and commence Americans that
Speaker 9: you are the only one who are keeping the lights
Speaker 9: on right now.
Speaker 6: Well, Donald Trump would probably beg to differ on that argument,
Speaker 6: and it raises the question for me, Rick, we just
Speaker 6: saw what Trump was eble, even if it wasn't entirely
Speaker 6: due to his thumb on the scale, his influence perhaps
Speaker 6: and members of the House, and how that ultimately proved
Speaker 6: enough to kill this border deal entirely. He used to
Speaker 6: be suggesting back what we were dealing with continuing resolutions
Speaker 6: about to expire twice before this. The Republicans shouldn't be
Speaker 6: fearing a government shutdown? Could the weather or not it
Speaker 6: happens actually come down to whether or not the former
Speaker 6: president gives his blessing for it to happen.
Speaker 9: Well, we've seen him metal in the House business this week,
Speaker 9: so sure that could have an influence on it. Although
Speaker 9: we haven't heard that from any of the leadership or
Speaker 9: even the rabble rouses in the Freedom Caucus lately that
Speaker 9: they actually want the government to shut down. I mean
Speaker 9: that conversation was really more germane. You know, at the
Speaker 9: end of last year. We haven't seen people actually think
Speaker 9: that's a good strategy right now. So the hope is
Speaker 9: that nobody actually believes that it's somehow their political advantage
Speaker 9: to shut the government down and that they do find
Speaker 9: a resolution to this, or what happens in these cases,
Speaker 9: a year long continuing resolution gets thrown on the floor
Speaker 9: and voted on that actually results in a budget cut
Speaker 9: based on the top line numbers that they'd already agreed to.
Speaker 9: But it also hurts the Defense Department at a time
Speaker 9: when we're in conflicts all around the world. And you know,
Speaker 9: I sure wouldn't want to be a Republican leader who
Speaker 9: has to go back to his district and explain to
Speaker 9: people that I was just party to a huge cut
Speaker 9: in defense spending at a time when our security is
Speaker 9: in jeopardy.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis, we thank you as always, Rick, thanks for
Speaker 2: the analysis and the clutch insights here as this bill
Speaker 2: clears a procedural hurdle in the Senate to fund Ukraine, Israel,
Speaker 2: and Taiwan.
Speaker 3: Rick was with us a bit earlier when this.
Speaker 2: Happened, and it looks like it could pass the full house. Here, Kayleie,
Speaker 2: this is important. It happened just a short time ago,
Speaker 2: teeing up a floor vote sooner than later.
Speaker 6: So it could pass potentially the full Senate. Even the
Speaker 6: tally that we've seen in the test measure today. If
Speaker 6: you will the House, though, is a massive question for
Speaker 6: everything we were just discussing with Rick. This is a
Speaker 6: speaker who has proven to have great difficulty exercise and
Speaker 6: control over his conference and also still has the motion
Speaker 6: to vacate potentially hanging over his head with every decision
Speaker 6: he makes. And there's members like Marjorie Taylor Green who
Speaker 6: have said, yes, we will bring that if you put
Speaker 6: Ukraine aid on the floor of this chamber.
Speaker 2: Indeed, it was only two days ago, by the way,
Speaker 2: a standalone Israel funding bill in the House failed. So
Speaker 2: let's wait to see what happens because.
Speaker 8: We simply can't REGI.
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