Speaker 1: Onward and upward to Mark Halpern. Now. Uh he is
Speaker 1: host of With All due respect weeknights at five pm
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Television. You can also catch this delightful show
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg in Washington, d C. So Mark, a lot
Speaker 1: going on, and certainly for Hillary Clinton. Um, there's a
Speaker 1: latest report on Benghazi. Uh this how how? How much
Speaker 1: of a deal is this for Hillary? I'm she says
Speaker 1: it's done. You know what happened? Does this offers anything
Speaker 1: new or anything that could influence voters on her campaign?
Speaker 1: I think very unlikely to influence voters, will continue to
Speaker 1: energize some Republicans. I think if Donald Trump can begin
Speaker 1: to talk about Hillary Flumen's record on judgment on things
Speaker 1: like Libya, uh not not necessarily relates to the horrible
Speaker 1: events tonight for Americans were killed, but the policy that
Speaker 1: led to such instability. There that the potential vulnerability for her.
Speaker 1: But she remains much more vulnerable on how voters feel better,
Speaker 1: on the email controversy, which is stoked impressions about her
Speaker 1: trustworthiness and truthfulness, and on whether she has an economic vision.
Speaker 1: I think that I wouldn't even put ben guys in
Speaker 1: the top ten in terms of things that potentially make
Speaker 1: her a vulnerable candidate against Donald Trump. Where does what is?
Speaker 1: What is the latest? What do we stand on Hillary
Speaker 1: Clinton's email? It seems like almost every day there's something
Speaker 1: in the news about the latest store. How would you
Speaker 1: sum that up for us at this point, Mark, Well,
Speaker 1: the biggest aspect of it is the FBI investigation, which
Speaker 1: is occurring largely out of you not entirely clear even
Speaker 1: to my best sources where the investigation stands. Hillary Clinton
Speaker 1: has not been interviewed yet by the FBI. As far
Speaker 1: as we know, we expect that to eventually happen. I
Speaker 1: remain skeptical based on the law and the facts, that
Speaker 1: that she'll be indicted. But there are other things that
Speaker 1: are keeping the story alive and certainly adding to a
Speaker 1: sense of of of political instability. One is the civil
Speaker 1: cases that relate to her email practices that occasionally yield
Speaker 1: depositions and other news and then um this week, in
Speaker 1: a move that even some Democrats recognize an extraordinarily bad judgment,
Speaker 1: President Clinton found himself on the tarmac at the Phoenix
Speaker 1: Airport at the same time as the Attorney General of
Speaker 1: the United States, Literal Lauretta Lynch, he's overseeing the investigation,
Speaker 1: and he got on our plane and they, by their accounts, socialized.
Speaker 1: I don't have any reason to believe they talked about
Speaker 1: the case. But the suspicion of of the specter of
Speaker 1: President Clinton talking to the woman who's whose decision could,
Speaker 1: in theory make or break his wife's chance of being president,
Speaker 1: a lot of people just think better off not socializing
Speaker 1: with that particular fellow traveler at that point. Polls, there
Speaker 1: are many polls, and they seem to me mark to
Speaker 1: have divergent results. Which which are the polls that are out? Now?
Speaker 1: Do you do you most take take with the most
Speaker 1: credibility of telling us where Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton
Speaker 1: stand visa via each other as we had toward novement. Well,
Speaker 1: you know, Trump is gonna have to change the nature
Speaker 1: of the electorate that votes for Republican presidential candidates to win,
Speaker 1: and his campaign wouldn't deny that. So there's some question
Speaker 1: of whether the polls are capturing that kind of both
Speaker 1: demographic and electoral college strategy that Trump would have to
Speaker 1: rely on to win his strength in important states like
Speaker 1: Michigan or rather Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, UH is different from
Speaker 1: most of the national polls, and people tend to overreact
Speaker 1: to snapshots of where we are. There's no doubt in
Speaker 1: my mind that Hillary Clinton is more likely to win
Speaker 1: than not. It's more doubt in my mind that Democrats
Speaker 1: have an electoral college advantage based on their performance in
Speaker 1: the last several elections. But I think Donald Trump has
Speaker 1: proven that he can gain and lose support pretty easily,
Speaker 1: and coming out of a very bad period, I don't
Speaker 1: think anybody should be surprised he's behind. He does have
Speaker 1: some structural problems right now with certain parts of the electorate,
Speaker 1: and that's reflected in the national polls that show him
Speaker 1: down anywhere from four points to twelve points. We just
Speaker 1: saw in the UK where Poles were not mislet us.
Speaker 1: You could say, what about the polls in the US.
Speaker 1: I guess yesterday said they can be much more massage.
Speaker 1: Perhaps some people know would be be possible to get
Speaker 1: a surprise like that in November. Well, the fact is
Speaker 1: the betting markets were wrong in Brexit. The polls were
Speaker 1: perfectly accurate. Uh if you look at margin of error,
Speaker 1: which you know, you need to give the posters credit
Speaker 1: for recognizing that there is a margin of error in
Speaker 1: these polls. The polls consistently showed that the outcome would
Speaker 1: be close. On the outcome was closed. The betting markets
Speaker 1: were the ones that were wrong. And I've been a
Speaker 1: big critic of betting markets because if they're not about finance,
Speaker 1: if they're about politics or sports, I'm not sure I
Speaker 1: trust the expertise of those people. But we always trust
Speaker 1: the expertise of Mark Halprin. He's hosted, with all due respect,
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Television. Catch him today at five pm Wall
Speaker 1: Street Time. This is Bloomberg