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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

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Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto

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Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 2: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: One of my favorite economists of all times, Lena Shilia Tava,

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Speaker 3: senior US economists at the conference sport. Elena, thanks so

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Speaker 3: much for joining us here. What did you make of

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Speaker 3: the Fed's move this week? Was that appropriate?

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Speaker 4: Do you think?

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Speaker 5: I think so.

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Speaker 6: I think there's a lot of tension. Obviously, it was

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Speaker 6: not an easy decision. You absolutely hear that in the

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Speaker 6: press conference. A lot of tension going on between the

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Speaker 6: inflation goal and the maximum employment target. But I think

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Speaker 6: they did what they did was appropriate. We think that

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Speaker 6: they will continue to cut rates this year. We have

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Speaker 6: two more cuts in our FOCUST, and we also have

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Speaker 6: to focus to cuts in the beginning of next year.

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Speaker 6: I think it's a risk management decision. It was all

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Speaker 6: very clear throughout Chiair Powell's speech of the press conference

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Speaker 6: that it was a risk management decision. A lot of

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Speaker 6: people said that there was a lot of tension between

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Speaker 6: upgrading the economic projections and the rate cut. But actually,

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Speaker 6: if you look at the materials to the summary of

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Speaker 6: economic projections and you look deeper into the risk section,

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Speaker 6: the risks to the labor market increased substantially, while the

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Speaker 6: risks to the inflation mandate as a perception between the

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Speaker 6: FORMC members actually declined, and that is what drove the

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Speaker 6: rate cut. It's the balance of risks shifting, not necessarily

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Speaker 6: their projections for the economy.

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Speaker 7: But Elena Powell said himself, this is not a bad

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Speaker 7: economy right now with unemployment at four point three percent,

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Speaker 7: the economy is still growing at about one and a

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Speaker 7: half percent. So how many rate cuts do you think

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Speaker 7: we should be not will get, but should get in

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Speaker 7: twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 6: But we're still in a restrictive territory, he said, right

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Speaker 6: at the same time, So it's not necessarily like cutting

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Speaker 6: rates to boost economic growth. It's really removing that access restrictiveness.

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Speaker 5: From interest rates.

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Speaker 6: I think you know we're expecting four more cuts and

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Speaker 6: for the FED to stop at three percent and see

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Speaker 6: and assist what is happening in the beginning of next year.

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Speaker 6: Why the beginning of next year, it's going to be

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Speaker 6: a really pivotal moment for the economy. We think that

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Speaker 6: we have not seen most of the impact from terriffs

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Speaker 6: just yet. There's a lot of discussion on Bloomberg TV

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Speaker 6: and Bloomberg Radio about how tariffs have not yet fully

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Speaker 6: been felt throughout the economy.

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Speaker 5: I totally agree with that.

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Speaker 6: It's going to be the holiday season that will be

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Speaker 6: a huge test for the US consumer in terms of

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Speaker 6: their tolerance to higher prices. I think that's when we're

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Speaker 6: going to see how consumers are doing. And in our

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Speaker 6: own projections, we see a significant slowdown in the economy

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Speaker 6: towards the end of the year just because of that

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Speaker 6: and going into twenty twenty six. So that's when we

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Speaker 6: are going to see the significant impact on tariffs, which

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Speaker 6: will probably not be fully upset by fiscal policy and

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Speaker 6: that a lot of people talk.

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Speaker 3: About Yalan the FED seems to be I focused maybe

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Speaker 3: a little bit more on the labor side of their mandate.

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Speaker 3: What's your view of the labor market these days?

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Speaker 6: It's healthy, you know, it's weaker, but it's still healthy.

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Speaker 6: And that's why I think the next payrolls report will

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Speaker 6: be really key to what the FED does at the

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Speaker 6: October meetings. So and it's not going to be about payrolls,

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Speaker 6: and again Powell alluded to that. He was kind of like, Okay, yeah, payrolls,

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Speaker 6: we agree that, you know, that may not be the

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Speaker 6: perfect indicative labor market health. It's going to be about

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Speaker 6: the unemployment rate. He did say a couple of times

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Speaker 6: during his press conference.

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Speaker 5: That is a key measure.

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Speaker 6: For the FED to see what is happening in the

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Speaker 6: labor marcket if the unemployment rate rises, and we will

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Speaker 6: be very much looking at the details below, you know,

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Speaker 6: the unemployment rate itself, what drove it up, and things

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Speaker 6: like that. But if that rises, I think the FIT

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Speaker 6: will continue to remove that restrictiveness from interest rates.

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Speaker 7: Elena, you were talking about the consumer and consumer spending

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Speaker 7: a moment ago. You know, despite some consumer confidence reports

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Speaker 7: that show confidence as lagging, we're still spending right And

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Speaker 7: today there was even a report from the National Retail

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Speaker 7: Federation saying they expect records spending on Halloween this year.

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Speaker 7: So when are we going to start to see the

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Speaker 7: consumer pulled back in some sort of a meaningful way,

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Speaker 7: because let's admit, they've really been the pillar of this economy,

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Speaker 7: despite the tariffs, despite geopolitical uncertainty. They're hanging in there.

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Speaker 6: Well, you asking a question, and as a consumer, I

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Speaker 6: can absolutely understand it. Like me myself shopping for school

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Speaker 6: supplies earlier this year, it was like, you know, little

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Speaker 6: note pads and things that went in price so much.

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Speaker 5: I was shocked.

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Speaker 6: Obviously I'm not happy about it, but I was still

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Speaker 6: buying it. So this is like a question about that

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Speaker 6: consumer tolerance level that I think we will be testing

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Speaker 6: towards the end of the year when we get into

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Speaker 6: that important holiday shopping season. I think, you know, to

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Speaker 6: a degree, we're already cutting on services spending to buy

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Speaker 6: those essential goods. And that's why I will be looking

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Speaker 6: at the Personal Income and Spending report towards the end

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Speaker 6: of the months on September twenty six to see what

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Speaker 6: the split is between the services side and.

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Speaker 5: The goods side.

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Speaker 6: I think that we have already, like the data shows

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Speaker 6: that we have already diminished I was spending on, you know,

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Speaker 6: particularly discretionary services.

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Speaker 5: Let's see that trend continues. All right, Elena, thank you

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Speaker 5: so much. We appreciate that.

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Speaker 3: One of my all time favorite economists, Elaine issue li Teva,

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Speaker 3: senior US economists at the conference board here.

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Speaker 5: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Let's see what's happening in this market here again, a

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Speaker 3: little bit lifted market. We had a nice trading day yesterday,

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Speaker 3: a little bit delayed response to the Fed cut.

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Speaker 6: Here.

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Speaker 5: Let's talk to somebody who actually is a professional in

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Speaker 5: this stuff. That's Sarah Hunt.

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Speaker 3: She's a partner in chief market strategist at Alpine Saxon Woods.

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Speaker 3: We just kind of pretend here, but Sarah's the pro here. Sarah,

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Speaker 3: what did you hear from your Federal Reserve this week

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Speaker 3: and did it alter the way you're thinking about allocated

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Speaker 3: capital here?

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Speaker 8: Well, I think that they did the best job that

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Speaker 8: they could in a circumstance that's challenging for a lot

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Speaker 8: of reasons. Because you've got the labor market doing one thing,

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Speaker 8: You've got potential inflation coming back on the other side.

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Speaker 8: You've got a lot of different things going on at

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Speaker 8: are we too restrictive.

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Speaker 7: Are we not?

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Speaker 8: Is a lack of restriction actually going to be helpful

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Speaker 8: for businesses and whether or not that goes anywhere. I

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Speaker 8: think that there's no actual next step. The expectation is

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Speaker 8: they're going to continue cutting, but you've got some data

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Speaker 8: in between now and then, So I think I think

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Speaker 8: they did the best they could in a situation that's

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Speaker 8: quite tough, and it's only going to be tougher as

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Speaker 8: the meetings go from here.

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Speaker 7: You know, I think getting lost in the sauce guys

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Speaker 7: is that there is a government shutdown looming. If that

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Speaker 7: were to happen at the end of the month, how

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Speaker 7: does that play into I mean, it's really on the

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Speaker 7: back burner right now, but if it were to happen,

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Speaker 7: how does that inform your decisions on the market.

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Speaker 8: I have to say that generally speaking, a lot of

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Speaker 8: that political conflagration doesn't always come through in markets because

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Speaker 8: they assume that it's going to get solved, and historically

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Speaker 8: speaking it has been. We're also on the year thirty

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Speaker 8: of continuing resolutions, right If you and I did that,

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Speaker 8: our budgets would be completely a disaster. So the idea

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Speaker 8: that all of a sudden, this one is the worst

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Speaker 8: one that we've had. Is we'll see how that plays out.

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Speaker 8: It certainly could add to volatility at a time when

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Speaker 8: people are expecting volatility, and so far in September we

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Speaker 8: haven't really gotten very much of it. So it could

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Speaker 8: certainly add to uncertainty, which would potentially be an issue

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Speaker 8: for investors.

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Speaker 9: At record highs.

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Speaker 3: Red headline crossing the Bloomberg terminal. President she President Trump

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Speaker 3: holding a phone call. That's according to the CCTV.

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Speaker 5: We'll have more reporting on that.

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Speaker 4: Sarah.

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Speaker 5: Talk to us about just kind of how do you

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Speaker 5: think about.

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Speaker 3: US versus rest of the world in terms of opportunities,

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Speaker 3: because we saw earlier in this year a lot of

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Speaker 3: folks kind of leave the US maybe kind of back

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Speaker 3: away from that American exceptionalism a little bit like I

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Speaker 3: got to own everything, the dollar, I got own the

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Speaker 3: US equities, US bonds, kind of back away from that.

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Speaker 5: How do you guys think about it that now we tend.

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Speaker 8: To be fairly US centric, and I think the tricky

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Speaker 8: thing about backing away from it, there are periods of

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Speaker 8: time at which different markets will do better than the

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Speaker 8: US for any number of reasons. I mean, I think

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Speaker 8: China with stimulants. The Chinese market's actually done quite well

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Speaker 8: this year, But I think that the problem becomes if

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Speaker 8: the US has a problem, the rest of the world

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Speaker 8: tends to have a.

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Speaker 9: Problem as well.

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Speaker 8: Most of the large technology juggernauts are in the United States.

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Speaker 8: Most of that cast generation is coming from there, so

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Speaker 8: it's difficult to walk away from the US. It's more

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Speaker 8: of an and than an ore as far as we're concerned.

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Speaker 8: There are places where you can find pockets of timing

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Speaker 8: where you can make more money, but the US markets

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Speaker 8: really tend to be a place for investors to sort

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Speaker 8: of stay and hold those stocks.

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Speaker 7: Are you surprised by the strength you're seeing in China

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Speaker 7: right now, in the low inflation you're seeing in China,

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Speaker 7: given all that's coming at them right especially from the US, I.

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Speaker 8: Think it's a surprise. I mean, this year has been

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Speaker 8: such a challenge to try to parse out where things

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Speaker 8: are going because you've had this moving, tear up situation.

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Speaker 7: You've had a lot of that that makes it.

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Speaker 8: Very difficult for people to figure out exactly where things

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Speaker 8: are going to go. So I think you look into

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Speaker 8: twenty twenty six and it's as confusing. What's going to

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Speaker 8: happen next year. But China has certainly been trying to

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Speaker 8: do work on their own economy and that's been a

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Speaker 8: sort of a perennial. But this year does seem to

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Speaker 8: have been a little better for them.

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Speaker 3: Sarah, what do you talk to your clients about is

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Speaker 3: when they say, well, I'm concerned about this concentration risk

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Speaker 3: in this market. I mean, it seems like all the

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Speaker 3: performance is driven by a handful of names. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: I know most of the earnings are coming from a

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Speaker 3: handful of names, and but that, boy, we just haven't

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Speaker 3: seen it like this for such a long time. Tom

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Speaker 3: King would go back to the nifty to fifty back

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Speaker 3: in the day.

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Speaker 7: It is.

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Speaker 8: That is also a very big challenge, and the problem

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Speaker 8: is that it's almost the momentum has been driving a

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Speaker 8: lot of that, but it's also the cash flow and

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Speaker 8: the earnings that have been driving that. It is hard

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Speaker 8: to see where you can look at ancillary areas, and

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Speaker 8: we've talked about this before in the space of infrastructure

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Speaker 8: build out for AI, but there's also that spending is

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Speaker 8: enormous right now.

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Speaker 7: That spending doesn't look.

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Speaker 8: Like it's slowing down, when it does look like it's

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Speaker 8: going to slow down. I think you're going to see

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Speaker 8: a lot of wobbles. And every time we think that

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Speaker 8: there might be a pullback in AI spending, that part

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Speaker 8: of the market has wobbled. But it's difficult because that

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Speaker 8: is where the performance is, and that is where the

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Speaker 8: concentration in the S and P is too. So if

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Speaker 8: you're going up against the market quote unquote with as

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Speaker 8: the S and P five hundred, that concentration in top

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Speaker 8: names is enormous in that index, and that is historically.

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Speaker 7: Unusual headwinds in this market. I mean, besides maybe valuations

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Speaker 7: being a little frothy in some areas. What's your biggest

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Speaker 7: what's the biggest headwind to the market.

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Speaker 8: I think the biggest headwind to me is any kind

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Speaker 8: of risk to earnings growth, because the valuations in and

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Speaker 8: of themselves are usually not the problem. The problem is

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Speaker 8: when something changes and if that delta in that change

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Speaker 8: in earnings direction goes the other way, it's either negative

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Speaker 8: or it starts to slow down. That's going to be

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Speaker 8: a problem because of where valuations are. But the valuations

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Speaker 8: in and of themselves are not as much of the issue.

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Speaker 7: What would be the impetus to make those earnings go down.

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Speaker 5: So this is the.

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Speaker 8: Problem of where do we end up with the tariffs

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Speaker 8: and what happens with margins, because margins are a big problem.

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Speaker 8: If you are worried that input prices is going up,

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Speaker 8: are going up, then you have a problem with the

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Speaker 8: labor market because that's usually how people solve margin part.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the second quarter earnings were I'm gonna really good,

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Speaker 3: I mean, much better than people would expect it. But

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Speaker 3: I keep waiting for the tariffs to really bite earnings

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Speaker 3: or we just haven't seen it.

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Speaker 8: Really, It's that shoe that people are either waiting to

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Speaker 8: drop or assuming is not going to drop because it

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Speaker 8: hasn't dropped thus far. And I think that's where the

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Speaker 8: problem is. And with the moving rules and timing, you know,

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Speaker 8: you can just keep pushing things forward and then people

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Speaker 8: keep bringing forward their activity because I'd rather buy it

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Speaker 8: now than pay an extra twenty percent on it. At

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Speaker 8: some point that script either flips or it doesn't work

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Speaker 8: quite as well. And we haven't gotten there, which is

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Speaker 8: why earnings were so great and people were surprised, and

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Speaker 8: those upside surprises were I think the expectation is that

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Speaker 8: earnings are going to be higher in twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 8: If that expectation changes, I think that's where you start

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Speaker 8: to see the cracks in the firmament.

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Speaker 7: I think it all comes down to the consumer.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 7: We were all buying up cars early in the year

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Speaker 7: to get ahead of the towers. I mean, once the

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Speaker 7: consumer starts to pull back, if the job market cracks

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Speaker 7: in a larger way, right, that's when the dominoes will

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Speaker 7: start to fall.

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Speaker 8: That's part of the problem, and that's part of what

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Speaker 8: everybody's been waiting for. And there is a striation between

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Speaker 8: upper end consumer and lowering consumer, and the lowering consumer

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Speaker 8: has been hurting for quite some time. The upper and

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Speaker 8: consumer continues to spend.

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Speaker 5: Sarah Hunt, thank you so much.

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Speaker 3: Appreciate it as always, Sarah Hunt, she was on television earlier.

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Speaker 3: Nass already do it at all Multimedia. We'll get to

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Speaker 3: get on a podcast or whatever the kids are doing

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Speaker 3: these days. Sarah Hunt, partner and chief market strategists at

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Speaker 3: out Pine Sex. What's giving us her thoughts on these markets?

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Speaker 5: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on.

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Speaker 3: YouTube Asamnaji, President CEO of Marcus and Milkjob joins us

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Speaker 3: here in our studio in New York City. As some

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Speaker 3: talk those, we've got commercial real estate business here today.

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Speaker 5: How are things out there?

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Speaker 4: Good morning, Great to be with you again. We have

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Speaker 4: come a long way since the shock of a five

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Speaker 4: hundred basis point interest rate factor completely destroyed any notion

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Speaker 4: of underwriting or how you value commercial real estate in

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty three. Twenty four was a little bit of

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Speaker 4: a regrounding all those values, and twenty five is now

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Speaker 4: moving forward into a new cycle, and the Fed's move

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Speaker 4: yesterday continued that process. For this industry. Prices have adjusted,

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Speaker 4: which is a really important reason why capital is coming

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Speaker 4: back into commercial real estate on a replacement cost and

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Speaker 4: alternative asset bases. Today's commercial real estate is far more

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Speaker 4: compelling as an investment than it was even a year ago,

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Speaker 4: especially with the head the FED now becoming much more dubbish.

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Speaker 4: We're also seeing a big pullback in new construction starts,

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Speaker 4: especially for multi family housing, which had record production, and

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Speaker 4: that draw up in new supply will give the market

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Speaker 4: some time to recover.

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Speaker 7: Let's talk office vacancy rates, right, because there was all

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Speaker 7: that doom talk, nobody's ever going to go back to

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Speaker 7: the office. People are going back to the office, mainly

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Speaker 7: because a lot of companies are saying if you don't,

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Speaker 7: you know, you can hit the road. Where are office

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Speaker 7: vacancy rates now, because I know across much of the

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Speaker 7: country they were at record high as recently.

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Speaker 4: Great question about a property type that has really suffered

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Speaker 4: from the post pandemic ripple effect that is now finally

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Speaker 4: starting to recover. You're right. Overall vacancies that are around

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Speaker 4: seventeen seventeen and a half percent nationwide, down from north

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Speaker 4: of twenty percent just a couple of years ago. In

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Speaker 4: New York City, those vacancies are accelerating on their way down. Now.

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Speaker 4: We're seeing a full percentage point drop in vacancies over

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Speaker 4: last year, record absorption in Q four and Q three

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Speaker 4: of last year, leading to a really strong twenty five

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Speaker 4: for the market. What's interesting is that the daily attendance

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Speaker 4: of office workers is now at eighty percent of pre

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Speaker 4: pandemic levels. Lisa mattail from seventy percent last year and

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Speaker 4: fifty seven percent the year before. I call that resilience,

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Speaker 4: Yes it is, but there's been a lot of pain

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Speaker 4: in the process. A lot of properties have defaulted on

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Speaker 4: their loans, and the bifurcation of older obsolete buildings versus

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Speaker 4: class A newer, more modern buildings is huge. Vacancies in

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Speaker 4: the class A newer product is you know, eleven twelve

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Speaker 4: percent or so, and by comparison, you're looking at twenty five,

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Speaker 4: thirty thirty five percent vacancies in older, more obsolete properties,

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Speaker 4: especially in urban markets. So it's a tale of two cities.

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Speaker 4: And the reaction from the market to commercial real estate

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Speaker 4: being the next shoe that falls because of office defaults

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Speaker 4: was way over exaggerated. I've been on this program saying

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Speaker 4: that for a couple of years now, and that's proof

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Speaker 4: to be right. We're working our way through it.

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Speaker 5: How about the.

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Speaker 3: Financing side of the commercial real estate business? Are the

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Speaker 3: banks playing? Are they where if I want to go

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Speaker 3: develop something or redevelop something and I want to put

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Speaker 3: some capital into commercial real estate, where am I going

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Speaker 3: to go?

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Speaker 5: Am I going to go to my local bank? Where

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Speaker 5: am I going.

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Speaker 4: Normally, the private investor sub ten fifty million dollars price

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Speaker 4: point heavily relies on banks and credit unions, especially regional

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Speaker 4: and local banks. In twenty twenty three, after the Silicon

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Speaker 4: Valley banking crisis and first half of twenty four, banks

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Speaker 4: were not lending. Underwriting was very tight. That has changed

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Speaker 4: significantly this year, so the banks are much more active.

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Speaker 4: The normal rotation of loans being paid off maturing is

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Speaker 4: finally starting to recover. That opens room on their balance

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Speaker 4: sheets for new loans, and that's another reason we're bullish

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Speaker 4: for twenty twenty six in terms of more transactions and refinancing.

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Speaker 7: You mentioned a moment ago about how these older buildings

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Speaker 7: are having a hard time finding attention in the market.

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Speaker 7: A number of cities are turning those buildings into those

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Speaker 7: commercial buildings into residential buildings. We're seeing that in Cleveland,

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Speaker 7: We're seeing that in Boston. Is that a trend that

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Speaker 7: you think is sustainable.

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Speaker 4: It's a one off trend because the cost of those

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Speaker 4: conversions and the practicality of most of the footprints that

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Speaker 4: were designed for office use into a true residential use

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Speaker 4: is very limited. But there are some successful examples. What

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Speaker 4: we're seeing broadly, is the reuse of old retail. For example,

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Speaker 4: shopping malls that are obsolete are a lot easier to

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Speaker 4: either demolish or convert to something else than urban, especially

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Speaker 4: urban office buildings.

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Speaker 3: Where are you guys seeing the best value out there today?

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Speaker 3: Where are you guys seeing, well, maybe some of the

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Speaker 3: smart money going, if you will, the.

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Speaker 4: Multi family rentals. You know, apartment buildings were so much

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Speaker 4: priced to perfection before or the FED interest rate hikes

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Speaker 4: that were affected pretty severely. So was industrial warehouses. Those

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Speaker 4: were the two most let's say, price to perfection property

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Speaker 4: types that were affected dramatically by the interest rate factor.

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Speaker 4: It's now two and a half years after that shock,

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Speaker 4: prices have adjusted and because of the replacement cost comparison

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Speaker 4: being so much higher than the existing valuation of existing assets,

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Speaker 4: those two property types are still getting a lot of attention.

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Speaker 4: And believe it or not, retail is the comeback kit. Really,

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Speaker 4: fifteen years of e commerce revolutionizing how consumers basically buy

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Speaker 4: things made brick and mortar retail go through a massive

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Speaker 4: repositioning and today's retail has less footprint, more of a

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Speaker 4: customer focus and experiential retail focus, and it's doing very well.

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Speaker 4: I would say it's the most desired property type of

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Speaker 4: all the property types that our company.

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Speaker 7: Well, you know, it's interesting in my neighborhood, and I'm

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Speaker 7: Midtown East. For years I walked past empty storefronts, and

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Speaker 7: it just seems like all at once somebody got in

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Speaker 7: a room and said, let's start buying because things are

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Speaker 7: starting to pop up all around. Is that just you know,

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Speaker 7: my enclave on the Midtown East.

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Speaker 4: It's not even urban retail right here in New York

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Speaker 4: is starting to do much better. It took several years

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Speaker 4: before that demand started to come back, but it's fascinating

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Speaker 4: to see a property type that was left for dead

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Speaker 4: because of e commerce now be the darling of the industry.

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Speaker 3: Here in Calabasas, California, right in La King's Fishouse, I'm

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Speaker 3: a big fan. Talk just about the LA market. What's

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Speaker 3: happening there at Russia Walle State in La.

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Speaker 4: Well, we're finally recovering from the devastation of the fires,

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Speaker 4: and there's a lot of pressure on jobs because of

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Speaker 4: tariffs and the port activity, but the market is holding

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Speaker 4: up surprisingly well against those two headwinds. In that California

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Speaker 4: as a state in southern California and particularly was sort

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Speaker 4: of viewed as the diamond and the rough in the

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Speaker 4: last six months in that there's been so much controversy,

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Speaker 4: both political and non political, that a lot of investors

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Speaker 4: shied away from investing in properties there. We're seeing a

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Speaker 4: reversal of that because the yields are now on a

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Speaker 4: comparative basis to other markets, pretty attractive. And you know,

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Speaker 4: let's face it, Southern California in particular is very dense,

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Speaker 4: and you have the diverse economic base of trade, entertainment, education,

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Speaker 4: and all the reasons. People are still attracted to Southern California.

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Speaker 4: And the out migration of California is way over overstated.

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Speaker 4: It's not nearly as bad as people feel about it.

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Speaker 7: We had the CEO of the Port of La here yesterday.

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Speaker 7: I talk you know, some Bloomberg intelligence, and you know,

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Speaker 7: they're dealing with all the day to day changes in

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Speaker 7: tariffs and the import taxes and what have you. But

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Speaker 7: it seems like business is humming along.

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Speaker 4: It is. That's what we're seeing on the ground as well.

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Speaker 4: A new capital is looking at buying assets yep, throughout California.

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Speaker 3: I'm thank you so much appreciated coming in as always

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Speaker 3: to Sam Naji. He's a presidency of Marcus and Millichap.

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Speaker 3: It's a publicly traded company. MMI is the ticker giving

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00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 3: us the lowdown.

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00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 5: On commercial real estate.

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00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 4: We appreciate that.

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Speaker 5: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

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00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,919
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

448
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

449
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 3: It is that timeless day again, the highlight of the

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00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 3: seven o'clock our newspapers with Lis Ptelisa, what do you

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00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 3: have for us today?

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Speaker 9: Okay, this is from the New York Times. It's kind

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00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 9: of a man versus woman's story when it comes to

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00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,920
Speaker 9: your health. So it talks about these different studies. Right,

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00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 9: how forty percent of adults in the US have obesity.

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00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 9: Men have similar races. Yes, I know that's figure there.

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00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 9: Men have similar rates of obesity as women. Right, But

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00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 9: here's the way the story is structured is that men

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00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 9: are less likely to seek medical care. And this is

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00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 9: the issue that's starting to happen. I mean, fewer them

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00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 9: get the bariatric surgery. Fewer them are on anti obesity drugs,

463
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,920
Speaker 9: and when they are on them, they get off faster

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Speaker 9: than women do. They're saying, maybe it could be a

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Speaker 9: reason because women are more concerned about how they look.

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00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:28,159
Speaker 5: That might be it.

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00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 9: But they're talking about the consequences, and the article really

468
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 9: gets into it. You know how it tends to be

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00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 9: more deadly for men than women, obesity does, so it

470
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 9: goes into all this and I'm just this is like

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00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,679
Speaker 9: the fight in my house letting my husband to go

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00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 9: to the doctor.

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00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,959
Speaker 7: Like you men, I don't know about you, but like

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00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 7: I'll stop for directions. Well now we don't have to

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00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,159
Speaker 7: because we have Google maps in the same things. But no,

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00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 7: I'll actually say to somebody, I need help. Where am

477
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 7: I going?

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00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 5: Yes?

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Speaker 2: Where?

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00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 7: The guy not so much. So I think that that's

481
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 7: sort of the same dynamic.

482
00:24:58,560 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 5: You know what.

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00:24:58,920 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 6: I think.

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00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 9: I think that I think you're onto it.

485
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 5: So you want the men to do GLP one or

486
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 5: you just want to go to the dost, go to

487
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:06,360
Speaker 5: the doctor, get checked out. I got to do that.

488
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 5: He doesn't do the once a year thing. No, no, no,

489
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Speaker 5: I have a talk. I have a talk.

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00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 4: Thank you?

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00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 5: All right? What else we got here.

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Speaker 9: Okay, so this one is from the Wall Street Journal,

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00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 9: and this is for the cat moms and dads out

494
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,200
Speaker 9: there who have all the cats at home. A lot

495
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 9: more homeowners are spending a lot of money on outdoor

496
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 9: patios for their cats to let them roam around, keep

497
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 9: them saved catos.

498
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 5: Yes, it's a thing.

499
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 9: People are spending one hundred and twenty five thousand dollars

500
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 9: on these shatios for their cats. You have to go

501
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 9: on the article and see some of the videos.

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00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 5: It's it's incredible.

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00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 7: I look at it how they span like outdoors, pretty intricate.

504
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,719
Speaker 9: And they just go up and down and it's like

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00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 9: hundreds of feet and all scream this article.

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00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:53,879
Speaker 7: Hundreds of feet is a cat? You know, That's what's happening.

507
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 5: So, I mean it's crazy. Protect them from like animals, Yeah, coyotes.

508
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 9: Coyotes are a big thing because people are afraid to

509
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 9: kind of let their cats wrong.

510
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 5: I see, So now the cats.

511
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,959
Speaker 9: Can roam all around in these enclosed right.

512
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 5: Folks got to look at this Wall Street drop. I'm

513
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 5: I'm reaching through the pictures in the video here. Unbelievable

514
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 5: more people.

515
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 9: Actually have cats, you know, cat ownership rows by twenty

516
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 9: three other day.

517
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 7: People are spending more on their cats than their dogs.

518
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 5: Why is that.

519
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 9: Yeah, they're having cat birthday parties.

520
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 4: They're doing it.

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00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:25,200
Speaker 5: It's the whole thing, Okay, telling.

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00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 9: You maybe they're just easier to take care of. You

523
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 9: don't have to go out and walk.

524
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 7: True.

525
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 9: True, I don't know. I'm allergic, So we move on. No,

526
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 9: cat's definitely not okay. So a number of companies we'd heard,

527
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 9: like retailers, talking about tariffs, higher cost of living and

528
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,439
Speaker 9: it's going to affect consumer spending. Well, apparently consumers are

529
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,360
Speaker 9: willing to spend on Halloween. Okay, they're not scared about it.

530
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 9: National Retail Federation says Halloween spending is expected to climb

531
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 9: to a record thirteen point one billion dollars this year,

532
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 9: and consumers know they have to spend more per person.

533
00:26:57,960 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 9: Spending increased to about you're going to spend about a

534
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 9: hundred and fourteen dollars and forty five cents, that's what

535
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,880
Speaker 9: they're saying. It's about eleven dollars more than last year.

536
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 9: But where they're spending is changing. They're going more to

537
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 9: the discount readtailers. I'm spending more of their money there.

538
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 9: The biggest category, yes, for spending for Halloween is candy,

539
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 9: because you have to get the trigger treats right. Total

540
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 9: expected to be about three point nine billion dollars. I

541
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 9: don't get many tricker treaters anymore.

542
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 7: I don't know either, so people do will spend. My

543
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 7: takeaway from you this morning, as people are spending on

544
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 7: their cats and Halloween, don't get in the middle of

545
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:30,120
Speaker 7: them and their Halloween. Can't.

546
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 5: Oh my goodness, it's true.

547
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 9: But you know where the best place to go Halloween

548
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 9: trick or treating? According to my daughter, Yes, Summit, New

549
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 9: Jersey is they give out the big candy bars.

550
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 5: And think in Summit the parents are great.

551
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:46,400
Speaker 3: They'll have a big bar stuffs outside their house.

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00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 5: I have cocktails.

553
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 3: So it's just I remember when my kids are a

554
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 3: little used to do all that. So that's a good time. Yeah,

555
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,200
Speaker 3: people love the Halloween thing. My niece is a.

556
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 5: Crazy Halloween person. Otherwise a normal person. Full bar of chocolate,

557
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 5: a lot of baby yes, and there's got to be

558
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 5: a cut off. Twelve years old, thirteen years old.

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00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:06,400
Speaker 9: I don't know the teenagers.

560
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 5: I know, yea, I know, or at least men say,

561
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 5: oh that's it with our newspapers. Uh, some good stuff there.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

563
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

564
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

565
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

566
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 2: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

567
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:33,160
Speaker 2: always on the Bloomberg terminal