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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game ju us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough.

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Speaker 2: For running again, so smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 3: Splendid sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 3: is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: How shot with that? Shop with mind? Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 3: That's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 4: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 4: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying. The one is left to.

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Speaker 4: Of the wide eyed drilled bibus.

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Speaker 2: How old Earth pick that happens? Hello everyone, welcome to

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Speaker 2: Wondergo Soccer Betting podcast from the Action Network. My name

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Speaker 2: is Michael Leeba. Joining me, it's always my co hosts

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Speaker 2: and colleagues J Cunningham and Anthony Dbundo, and together the

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Speaker 2: three of us are going to go on a nice

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Speaker 2: handicapping adventure. Midweek Premier League is back, ladies and gentlemen.

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Speaker 2: The festive fixtures right around the corner. It's going to

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Speaker 2: be a fun couple weeks here as we go through

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Speaker 2: every Premier League match every week, whether it falls on Saturday,

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Speaker 2: whether it falls on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday or Friday, Anthony,

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Speaker 2: We're going to be there for you, dear listener, going

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Speaker 2: through the match. But before we do that and break

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Speaker 2: down these ten Premier League matches coming up Tuesday Wednesday Thursday,

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Speaker 2: a reminder that Wonder Goal is presented by Bet three

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Speaker 2: six five and Bet three six five does not do ordinary.

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Speaker 2: It believes that every sport should be epic. Every tournament,

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Speaker 2: every game, every point, every play, from the moments that

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Speaker 2: are legendary to the ones that fly under the radar.

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Speaker 2: C for yourself when you sign up today with Promo

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Speaker 2: Code Action, and you'll get three hundred and sixty five

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Speaker 2: dollars in bone bets when you bet just one dollar.

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Speaker 2: Whatever the sport, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. A

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Speaker 2: bet three sixty five, you must be twenty one or

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Speaker 2: older and you must be present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky,

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Speaker 2: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. And if you or someone

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Speaker 2: you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please

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Speaker 2: call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey,

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Speaker 2: Ohio and Virginia or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa.

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Speaker 2: Terms and conditions apply, like I said, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday,

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Speaker 2: are the midweek fixtures. We're gonna actually start though on Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: with a couple of the headliners, including Manchester United at

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Speaker 2: plus one ninety home underdog hosting Chelsea plus one forty.

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Speaker 2: The draw here is plus two forty. It's a funny

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Speaker 2: thing about betting. If you if you've been listening to

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Speaker 2: us this season, I mean, if you've been listening to

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Speaker 2: BJ wherever, you know that we've been skeptical of Manchester

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Speaker 2: United from a betting perspective. Skeptical maybe is even kind.

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Speaker 2: That would be an understatement, It would be an understatement.

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Speaker 2: But this is what makes betting so beautiful. Everything comes

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Speaker 2: down to the price, and Manchester United is plus one

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Speaker 2: ninety home underdog on the three way money like BJ.

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Speaker 2: It seems a little ridiculous.

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Speaker 3: It does because the injury situation that's present with Manchester

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Speaker 3: United hasn't changed. So this opened around to Pickham United

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Speaker 3: was actually plus one fifty. Of course, they go to

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Speaker 3: Newcastle and get trucked, which we all in this podcast

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Speaker 3: thought was gonna happen. And Chelsea beats Brighton although they

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Speaker 3: weren't that great for the second half, and suddenly now

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Speaker 3: Chelsea is a plus one thirty road favorite, and I

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Speaker 3: don't understand what they've done to deserve this type of

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Speaker 3: price now from a game from a tacticle point of view,

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Speaker 3: for Manchester United, they can't build out of the back

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Speaker 3: right now, which is actually, I think in this match

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Speaker 3: is kind of a good thing because Chelsea for large

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Speaker 3: parts of this season has struggled in transition defense, and

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Speaker 3: the reality was is United was never going to build

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Speaker 3: out through their pressure anyway. So what United has been

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Speaker 3: doing is essentially just they get the ball to the

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Speaker 3: center backs, they try to overload the last line of defense,

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Speaker 3: and they just send long balls up and they just

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Speaker 3: try to win duels and second balls and get rash

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Speaker 3: for going forward and Grenacho and all everybody. So again

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Speaker 3: they got trucked in Newcastle. They've played three straight away

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Speaker 3: matches and now the marketers said, wait, hold on, Manchester

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Speaker 3: United's actually terrible now, when for the better part of

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Speaker 3: now two years they've been pricing them as a Big

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Speaker 3: six club who has spent a lot of money, who

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Speaker 3: has a lot of talent. But it's very clear on

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Speaker 3: the field, as we've seen throughout the season, that they're.

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Speaker 4: Just not that good. Now.

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Speaker 3: Chelsea's underlying metrics are obviously very good. It's twofold. It's

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Speaker 3: number one. They can't finish off any other chances because

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Speaker 3: they don't have a striker. That's been true since day one,

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Speaker 3: and a lot of their metrics have been inflated because

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Speaker 3: of that Tottenham match too.

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Speaker 4: When they were Tottenham, I had.

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Speaker 3: Nine men and playing the high line, and Chelsea just

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Speaker 3: kept getting chance after a chance after chance. But I

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Speaker 3: don't remember the last time I've actually placed a wager

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Speaker 3: on Manchester United. Michael, I'd have to go back and

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Speaker 3: look it's I think you might have to go back

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Speaker 3: to the old and shul Star days to find one.

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Speaker 3: But I think I have to do it here because

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Speaker 3: I have this projected right out of pick Them, and

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Speaker 3: when it opened, I said, okay, that's probably the right number.

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Speaker 4: Cool. I can just pass on this and move on.

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Speaker 3: But the market is continually steadily going towards Chelsea and

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Speaker 3: I don't really understand it. I don't think there's really

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Speaker 3: anything that they've shown us this season that they deserve

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Speaker 3: to be a road favorite at Old Trafford, where United

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Speaker 3: has played better the last.

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Speaker 2: Two years, not against Galatas.

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Speaker 4: That's true.

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Speaker 3: Well, the thing is and That's another point is like

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Speaker 3: the you know we mentioned obviously United open is a

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Speaker 3: road favorite at Galatas Rye, and then everybody the market

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Speaker 3: just said, hold on, wait and know they're terrible, this

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Speaker 3: needs to be priced at a pick them, and they

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Speaker 3: got corrected and so seemingly it got corrected as well

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Speaker 3: for the else match, and then it just swung the

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Speaker 3: other way.

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Speaker 4: And now I'm like, oh.

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Speaker 3: Crap, Now I have to bet Manchester United, which is

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Speaker 3: something I don't really want to do, and I've said

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Speaker 3: so many bad things about them on this podcast that

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Speaker 3: I have to take them all back for this one

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Speaker 3: match and say, wait, hold on, let's start the problems

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Speaker 3: that we've been talking about. But again, the price is

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Speaker 3: a little crazy, so I like United, pick them at

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Speaker 3: plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting when you compare like, you know, our our

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Speaker 1: show to like an NFL podcast or something where they

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Speaker 1: talk about, you know, all the thirty two teams over

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Speaker 1: the course of sixteen weeks, and the market has dramatic

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Speaker 1: reactions to certain data points because there's fewer of them,

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Speaker 1: and so you may be anti green Bay at the

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Speaker 1: beginning of the year, but then you become a huge

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Speaker 1: green Bay person by the end of the year, for example,

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Speaker 1: And in soccer it's less that way because you know,

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Speaker 1: there's just more data points. We know these club teams

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Speaker 1: pretty well. We talk about them, you know, once a

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Speaker 1: week for nine months out of the year. Not much

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Speaker 1: changes from one week to the next, and so a

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Speaker 1: lot of times we just have opinions on teams that

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Speaker 1: are off market. We bet those opinions over and over

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Speaker 1: and over again. This is like a rare occurrence for

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Speaker 1: me though, where I actually kind of agree now it

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Speaker 1: has I'm higher than the market. I think higher than

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Speaker 1: BJ on Chelsea, so I do have the Blues favorite

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Speaker 1: here on the road. I don't have the data to

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Speaker 1: update yet off of Chelsea Brighton. I don't think much

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Speaker 1: would have changed there. We had forty five minutes of

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Speaker 1: ten of the eleven, so not much to glean from that.

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Speaker 1: They scored twice offset pieces against Brighton. Again, like, don't

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Speaker 1: really read much into that. You know, they didn't do

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Speaker 1: a great job of controlling the match in the first

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Speaker 1: half from what I from the parts of the match

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Speaker 1: that I saw, the problem is like, yeah, United's probably

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Speaker 1: better off not having them all, better off not trying

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Speaker 1: to play through pressure. Like you said, BJ, so from

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Speaker 1: a matchup perspective, I don't really come down on any

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Speaker 1: strong take on this match, and I'm trying to be

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Speaker 1: better with not forcing plays just because it's the biggest

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Speaker 1: match of the week. So as of right now, I'm

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Speaker 1: going to pass here. I do think the totals a

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Speaker 1: touch low, just because you know, these two and a

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Speaker 1: half United totals are ridiculous, given and how they've played defensively,

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Speaker 1: they are literally a bottom five defense by any metric

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Speaker 1: and expected goals that you look at and by you know,

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Speaker 1: even like ball progression data, they're a bottom half defense.

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Speaker 1: So they can see a two and a half xtgly

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Speaker 1: over the weekend. It's not getting better. I don't think

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Speaker 1: this is a great matchup for them either, at least

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Speaker 1: in terms of like the fact that they have struggled

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Speaker 1: to deal with balls and behind all year long, and

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Speaker 1: that's exactly what Chelsea wants to do. So I do

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Speaker 1: think that there's some maybe some value on the over this.

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Speaker 1: There's still a rogue minus one forty five over two

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Speaker 1: and a half. I think that's short. The rest of

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Speaker 1: the market's close to like one sixty five one seventy

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Speaker 1: that's about where i'd have it, so you know, it's

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Speaker 1: a little bit short. Maybe if you find the right number.

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Speaker 1: This could also be a good live over game if

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Speaker 1: it starts slow, because I don't think either defense can

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Speaker 1: really hold a lead right now. So certain ways to

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Speaker 1: look at this one. But ultimately, for me, unless United

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Speaker 1: gets to plus money on the draw, no bet, and

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Speaker 1: maybe even like plus one fifteen plus one twenty, then

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Speaker 1: I would hop in. But right now it's going to

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Speaker 1: be a past.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna be with Bja here. I think United is

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Speaker 2: worth the bet at home. The one thing, I mean,

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Speaker 2: the fixtures end up piling up here for well, this

186
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Speaker 2: is going to be a point we're gonna be making

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Speaker 2: for a bunch of teams as we go through these

188
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Speaker 2: midweek matches, as as we get closer to Boxing day

189
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Speaker 2: in New Year's date, et cetera, with teams that are

190
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Speaker 2: still in Europe. But the travel for United too, like you,

191
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Speaker 2: sometimes it's we're talking about Yeah, like Arsenal went to

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Speaker 2: Paris and back, it's not that bad, but going to

193
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Speaker 2: Istanbul and back and then playing a game and then

194
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Speaker 2: playing again a couple of days later, it does where

195
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Speaker 2: the wear and tear comes into play here. But I

196
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Speaker 2: still think that this number on United is more than actionable,

197
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Speaker 2: so I'll take them on the money line here. I

198
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Speaker 2: think that Chelsea is also not a team I want

199
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Speaker 2: to bet as a favorite ever right now. Like they

200
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Speaker 2: they're They're I don't trust them. I know they ended

201
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Speaker 2: up being a good team today, but it's not not

202
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Speaker 2: how they profile.

203
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Speaker 1: Yeah, they didn't have to play down a man. They

204
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Speaker 1: had one less day of rest. United had all kinds

205
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Speaker 1: of bus issues getting to They had to cancel their

206
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Speaker 1: flight and take a bus to the Newcastle to get

207
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Speaker 1: there on Saturday. So definitely ended up being a pretty

208
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Speaker 1: bad spot for them, but they do get the extra

209
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Speaker 1: day rest. Chris and Kunku, by the way, may make

210
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Speaker 1: his Chelsea debut. That's a possibility, yeah, so keep that

211
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Speaker 1: in mind and something that I'd absolutely be excited to

212
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Speaker 1: see if he does.

213
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Speaker 2: Yeah, But even so, I don't think that that's the

214
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Speaker 2: type of thing that would scare me off of betting,

215
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Speaker 2: you know, because because he's.

216
00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:35,520
Speaker 3: Not gonna play a ninety like hey, yeah, all right,

217
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Speaker 3: another Wednesday game.

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Speaker 2: Another headliner for the midweek pictures is Villa hosting Man

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Speaker 2: City the Villains, Whuni Amory's villains plus three fifty at home,

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Speaker 2: City traveling at minus one forty three and the draw

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Speaker 2: is sitting at plus three. Twenty three draws in a

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Speaker 2: row now for City after a uh a three three

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Speaker 2: a wild one with with Tottenham, tried to tell Anthony

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Speaker 2: that you know, this Tottenham team has had more to give.

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Speaker 2: They had more to give and they were gonna be

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Speaker 2: dangerous against Spurs against City and they always ogie team.

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Speaker 1: Narrative continues.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll talk about Spurs later.

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Speaker 1: We're ending with Spurs this week, which is exciting because

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Speaker 1: of who I may be betting in that match.

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Speaker 2: Villa, by the way, they just they just keep trucking out.

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Speaker 1: Uh not exactly.

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Speaker 2: Hold on a second.

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Speaker 1: I want to take a victory.

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Speaker 4: Lap.

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Speaker 1: I got my first head they keep they keep trucking on.

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Speaker 1: I got my first head to head win against BJ

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Speaker 1: since you know what's uh the Premier League was founded.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, no, congratulations.

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Speaker 3: Actually, I will truthfully, I will say that was a

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Speaker 3: bad death by me.

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Speaker 4: It was a bad spot for deserve the draw.

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Speaker 1: Congratulations, deserve the win.

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Speaker 2: I thought, well, there's some decisions that you know, he

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Speaker 2: was minute.

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Speaker 1: We have missed two sitters.

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Speaker 2: Either way against against Torment Uh, for Villa, they keep

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Speaker 2: they just keep picking up points. They're five back. I

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Speaker 2: mean this is in terms of the table, it's it's

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Speaker 2: it's as big a game as you can get at

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Speaker 2: this junction of the season. Uh, City needs a win

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Speaker 2: pretty desperately. I would say here they could find themselves

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Speaker 2: six points back Arsenal when we've seen that before as we.

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Speaker 1: Had to it could be the season we had towards Christmas.

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Speaker 2: Uh. I kind of wanted, I want to get to

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Speaker 2: City here, but I think this looks about right. And

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Speaker 2: if I if you are betting City, I wouldn't be

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Speaker 2: afraid of a route here there. They're gonna be all

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Speaker 2: sorts of testy the way that game ended. Uh, BJ,

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Speaker 2: what do you think I actually do?

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Speaker 3: Like as here, I'm gonna hop back on the train

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Speaker 3: their boys, this has been well. I don't know why

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Speaker 3: you guys are on the train because this is our

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Speaker 3: boy from along from a long time on this podcast.

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Speaker 3: But it's a really tough run of fixtures for City.

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Speaker 3: I mean they're obviously they're used to playing you know,

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Speaker 3: big match after big match after a big match, but Chelsea, Liverpool,

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Speaker 3: Leipsig tot them all back to back to back and

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Speaker 3: then having to travel to aston Villa for midweek. That's

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Speaker 3: that's really really draining for them. And now they're going

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Speaker 3: to be without Rodri for this match. They're going without

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Speaker 3: Grealis for this match. It looked like Doku picked up

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Speaker 3: an injury, so they potentially will be without him as well.

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Speaker 3: And I think it's kind of gone under the radar,

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Speaker 3: but aston Villa has won thirteen straight match at home

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Speaker 3: in Premierly. Their last loss came last February to Arsenal.

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Speaker 3: It's a crazy it's a crazy, crazy run. But I

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Speaker 3: think the loss of Rodri in this match is pretty

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Speaker 3: massive to City to you know, because I think he

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Speaker 3: is their most important player so far this season. H

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Speaker 3: twenty three passes the final third, one hundred and four

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Speaker 3: progressive passes, next close to Kyle Walker Walker who has

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Speaker 3: sixty six in both of those categories. And I'm not

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Speaker 3: really sure Pep has a life for like swap for Rodri,

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Speaker 3: Like he can go Rico Lewis and give City a

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Speaker 3: lot of ball progression and you can get those you know,

287
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Speaker 3: progressive passes going forward, but then you lose your ball stopping.

288
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Speaker 3: You can play a voci in that role, but he's

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Speaker 3: not really that good of ball progressors, so it's kind

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Speaker 3: of a conundrum that I'm not sure he's gonna have

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Speaker 3: figured out.

292
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Speaker 4: And also not having a game changer like.

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Speaker 3: Realers or Doku to make runs off the back line

294
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Speaker 3: down the left hand wing when Villa is gonna play

295
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Speaker 3: that dangerous high line is kind of concerning for City

296
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Speaker 3: on how they're going to get at Villa and Villa

297
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Speaker 3: is just gonna sit. They're gonna do exactly what pretty

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Speaker 3: much every team is done to City this year except

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Speaker 3: for Topham apparently, is just sit in some compact, narrow

300
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Speaker 3: defensive shape which will be a four to four to two,

301
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Speaker 3: and they're just gonna limit central agression. They're going to

302
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Speaker 3: feed the ball out wide, and they're just gonna dare

303
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Speaker 3: City to break to break them down from white areas,

304
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Speaker 3: and without Grealish and without Doku, that's a problem for

305
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Speaker 3: City right now. So I do like the price on

306
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Speaker 3: Aston Villa. They're a very tackley, diverse team. You know,

307
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Speaker 3: obviously they do like to build build on the back

308
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Speaker 3: on goalkicks. But since Munaamar has taken over, there's been

309
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Speaker 3: sixteen matches where they've held under fifty percent possession. They're

310
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Speaker 3: nine to one in six in those sixteen matches, so

311
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Speaker 3: I think that aston Villa does have a pretty good

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Speaker 3: game plan here. I think with City missing a lot

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Speaker 3: of key players, I think it's a good spot to

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Speaker 3: pick them off once again, especially going through this really tough,

315
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Speaker 3: tough runt of fixtures. So and I only have City

316
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Speaker 3: at minus one ten, so I do like Villa plus

317
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Speaker 3: a half at plus one twenty.

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Speaker 1: Here's the thing, Like we talk about home Villa, and

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Speaker 1: it's true they have been really good at home. Their

320
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Speaker 1: home schedule has been pretty weak this year, and that's

321
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Speaker 1: the only thing that kind of scares me in this matchup,

322
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Speaker 1: in this spot and why I actually thought and hoped

323
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Speaker 1: we get City cheap off of those injuries and slash suspensions.

324
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Speaker 1: With rodri out and Grealish definitely out and Doku likely out,

325
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Speaker 1: this City team just doesn't have the horses to break

326
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Speaker 1: down teams and play those passes in behind. Who is

327
00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:18,800
Speaker 1: the outlet? Because when you play Villa, if you have

328
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,640
Speaker 1: the outlet, you can tear this defense to shreds. Toddam's

329
00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:27,240
Speaker 1: done it, Newcastle's done it, Liverpool's done it. But going

330
00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:31,520
Speaker 1: to Villa without that true outlet outlet, it's a lot harder,

331
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Speaker 1: and we've seen when Pep it's kind of like Pep

332
00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:37,120
Speaker 1: does this a little bit of a tell, like when

333
00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:40,200
Speaker 1: he puts both Grealish and Doku in the game, you're

334
00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,000
Speaker 1: screwed because they're going to just destroy you an attack,

335
00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:44,640
Speaker 1: they're going to take more chances, they're going to be more.

336
00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:47,520
Speaker 1: That's the aggressive City. Normally he plays one of two

337
00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:51,920
Speaker 1: and that's like generic City. And then when he there

338
00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:53,520
Speaker 1: have been matches this year where he has not played

339
00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:56,800
Speaker 1: either and it has been a slog for them to

340
00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:58,960
Speaker 1: do anything in attack. Like you go back to the

341
00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:02,160
Speaker 1: Newcastle match, which is what we're most notable, Like Vodon

342
00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:05,320
Speaker 1: Alvarez played in that match, but they did nothing. They

343
00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:10,320
Speaker 1: were not able to play those balls, and behind that

344
00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:14,199
Speaker 1: Newcastle defense, they were very passive in possession, took no

345
00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:16,480
Speaker 1: risk and I kind of think Pep takes the similar

346
00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:23,080
Speaker 1: approach here. So tempted by the under the unders over three,

347
00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:25,720
Speaker 1: I don't really have this much over three, So three

348
00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:29,040
Speaker 1: in a quarter is where it's sitting minus went twenty.

349
00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:31,199
Speaker 1: That's really tempting to me. But no match in this

350
00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:35,160
Speaker 1: league ever goes over under anymore, So it's really hard,

351
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:36,760
Speaker 1: like they should be paying out like two to one

352
00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:39,840
Speaker 1: on unders and I'm sitting there like sweating out of

353
00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:42,800
Speaker 1: Palace west ham Under this morning. I'm like, you know,

354
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:44,479
Speaker 1: it felt like I went through hell to win it,

355
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:47,199
Speaker 1: and I'm like, oh great, minus won twenty cash, Like

356
00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,080
Speaker 1: it just doesn't feel worth it. But in this case,

357
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:54,560
Speaker 1: like the total is hot and the home Villa has

358
00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:58,399
Speaker 1: defended better if if anything, So you know, can they

359
00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:00,639
Speaker 1: catch Holland off side a bunch of time? Can they

360
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:04,080
Speaker 1: stop City from constantly destroying them? We have not seen

361
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:08,640
Speaker 1: Home Villa's emery against this PEP team yet. They played

362
00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:10,800
Speaker 1: in the spring. It was at the ets you had.

363
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:14,040
Speaker 1: It was three point four x G. It was twenty

364
00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:15,840
Speaker 1: two shots, sixteen of them by City. It was total

365
00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,720
Speaker 1: one way traffic. But again it wasn't this version of City,

366
00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:21,239
Speaker 1: which is just not a great attacking side right now.

367
00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:23,360
Speaker 1: I mean they barely got over one XG against Liverpool

368
00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:26,280
Speaker 1: at home, and and I know they were great today

369
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,720
Speaker 1: against Spurs. That Spurs defense was taking every chance in

370
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:32,360
Speaker 1: the book and throwing numbers forward, so kind of made

371
00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:34,600
Speaker 1: it easy for City to get a bunch of chances.

372
00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 1: So yeah, I lean under here and if if we

373
00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:40,560
Speaker 1: got a better number, I'd take City, but the numbers

374
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:42,880
Speaker 1: nowhere near where I take City. I need like one

375
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:44,120
Speaker 1: ten one to play.

376
00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:47,679
Speaker 2: Them fast becoming a team of the podcast Wolverhampton odds

377
00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:51,199
Speaker 2: on at home minus one twenty five hosting burn Lee

378
00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,080
Speaker 2: plus three thirty three at bet three sixty five at

379
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:57,680
Speaker 2: the draw here plus two to seventy five. We brought

380
00:18:57,680 --> 00:18:59,960
Speaker 2: it up off the top of the show. Bring it

381
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:03,439
Speaker 2: up again. Uh, Betting is a is a very funny,

382
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 2: fickle thing because we we love this Wolves team. We

383
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:11,800
Speaker 2: love the way that they have the potential. Punch up.

384
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:18,440
Speaker 2: Arsenal stole a win against them over the weekend. Yeah,

385
00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:22,920
Speaker 2: but this price is way too short for for Wolverhampton.

386
00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:29,399
Speaker 2: Burnley looks cheap, Burnley looks fun here and the the

387
00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,439
Speaker 2: way to play this Burnley side has been that, like

388
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:35,880
Speaker 2: their identity under Vincent Company is they're going to try

389
00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,159
Speaker 2: to outplay you. They're going to try to put the

390
00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 2: ball on the carpet, knock it around, press you and

391
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:45,320
Speaker 2: play this high risk, high reward kamic coze ball and

392
00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:48,720
Speaker 2: it will work from time to time against lesser opposition.

393
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 2: Case in point, Sheffield United, case in point what we

394
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 2: saw all year last year in the Championsship. Wolverhampton I

395
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 2: think is solid mid table or like you know, lower

396
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,960
Speaker 2: mid table Premier League side under Gary O'Neal, and we

397
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,720
Speaker 2: like them as we like the way they profile punching up.

398
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,480
Speaker 2: But this situation is just not where you want to

399
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 2: play it with Wolves in my opinion. So I'll make

400
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 2: the play on Burnley here BJ I think we hate

401
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 2: this team.

402
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:22,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is such a fun week.

403
00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:25,560
Speaker 2: To get every team everything.

404
00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:27,560
Speaker 3: I like that all these negative things I've said about

405
00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,640
Speaker 3: Burnley over and over again and now I have to

406
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 3: sugarcoat it and try to make it sound good, which

407
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,040
Speaker 3: I think I have a good spin zone here is

408
00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:39,440
Speaker 3: because listen from a spot perspective, this is a great

409
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,120
Speaker 3: spot for Burnley because they are improving, like they.

410
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 4: Are getting better.

411
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,679
Speaker 3: They've played a really difficult schedule at the beginning of

412
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 3: the season. Now when they're starting to face teams near

413
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:50,199
Speaker 3: them in the bottom of the table, they actually have

414
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 3: been playing pretty well. They've played five matches against the

415
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:55,879
Speaker 3: bottom nine teams in the Premier League and me they

416
00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:58,760
Speaker 3: actually have a plus point three expect a goldenffronchal against

417
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:03,159
Speaker 3: those and all those matches outside of Obviously they drubbed

418
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,200
Speaker 3: Sheffield Wednesday five to nothing on Saturday, but the other

419
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 3: four matches, the expected goals was basically even in all

420
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,679
Speaker 3: four of them. Now Wolves will be getting Jia Gomez

421
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,480
Speaker 3: and Mario Lemina Beck, which is fine, but it looks

422
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 3: like Jose Size is also questionable to play in this match.

423
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 3: That's gonna leave Daniel Bentley potentially in net. He spent

424
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,280
Speaker 3: pretty much his entire career in the lower leagues, spent

425
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:28,080
Speaker 3: the last three or four years Bristol City minus five point.

426
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:29,399
Speaker 4: Two post shot xch plus minus.

427
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:31,920
Speaker 3: So if Size out, it'll be a pretty significant down

428
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 3: creating goal. And the biggest question here with Burnley, my

429
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:37,920
Speaker 3: guess is they're probably going to control the majority of

430
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,920
Speaker 3: the possession of this match and Wolves is probably gonna

431
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 3: sit off, which would be their best method of attack. Now,

432
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 3: does Burnley get beat up in that? Are they able

433
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 3: to actually play through that type of pressure.

434
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 4: We'll see.

435
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:53,679
Speaker 3: But from a Wolve's perspective, like you've mentioned to Michael,

436
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:54,879
Speaker 3: they're giant killers.

437
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 4: This season.

438
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 3: They've beaten both tottam and City, but they have not

439
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:04,360
Speaker 3: profiled well at all. They have played sent they've only

440
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,439
Speaker 3: won one match where they were playing even strength for

441
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 3: a full ninety minutes, you know, because they played Bornemouth

442
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 3: beat them to one and got a red card. And

443
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 3: that one match they beat against a team in the

444
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 3: bottom half of the table was Everton the third week

445
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,159
Speaker 3: of the season, and we remember that match. It was very,

446
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 3: very even and Wolves just scored late and could have

447
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 3: gone really could have gone either way. And in fact

448
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 3: they have played five excuse me six matches against teams

449
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 3: in the bottom half of the table. They have a

450
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 3: minus two point one expected goal differentials. So if you know,

451
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 3: if Gary O'Neil decides that he's gonna let Burnley have

452
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,200
Speaker 3: the ball and dare then break them down and press

453
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:42,440
Speaker 3: them high, then yes, that is a tent a dangerous

454
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 3: game to play with Burnley. But laying this number with Wolves,

455
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,399
Speaker 3: it's just a little too high. So I do given

456
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 3: Burnley's improving underlying performances against the bottom half of the table,

457
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 3: I do like them plus a half at even money.

458
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 1: Easiest pass on the board for me, and I think

459
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 1: the numbers right, and I don't really have a strong

460
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 1: take on this. You guys are now all of a

461
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 1: sudden Burnley fans like three days ago. I couldn't get

462
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 1: you guys to lay one ten against Sheffield at home,

463
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,439
Speaker 1: and and now you guys are advocating for Burnley. So

464
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 1: this is a fascinating plot twist that I'm appreciating. But

465
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 1: this had passed for.

466
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 4: This is why I hate betting so much.

467
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 2: It's funny why we hate that work.

468
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:21,199
Speaker 4: I really do not. I'm gonna have to bet on

469
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 4: United and Burnley.

470
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 2: This sweets Hey, maybe Lootontown. They're fourteen to one, and

471
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,360
Speaker 2: they're fourteen to one at home hosting your Arsenal.

472
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 4: Talk about easiest pass on the board, top.

473
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 2: Of the table, Arsenals, I just five hundred the drugs

474
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 2: twist fifty here? This uh tell me? This point makes sense.

475
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:45,360
Speaker 2: It feels like Arsenal's playing a lot like City did

476
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 2: pre last year. Very pragmatic mind, always about. Their mind

477
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 2: is always on killing a game, like just just anacondaing

478
00:23:56,200 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 2: suffocating a game, rather than let's be just let's score

479
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,919
Speaker 2: the you know, the killing goal, the game killer.

480
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: That's been true with most of the OETA era.

481
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that City team once a year would stumble

482
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:18,439
Speaker 2: against a team as a gigantic favorite. Because if you

483
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 2: play like that and you don't have your shooting boots on,

484
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 2: or the other team gets a lucky break, maybe there's

485
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,880
Speaker 2: just a weird defensive breakdown, maybe Edison kicks the ball

486
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 2: to the wrong team. You leave yourself susceptible to that

487
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 2: because you might just not score your way out of

488
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 2: a problem like that, because the way that your team

489
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:41,680
Speaker 2: is that the team identity is. So I'm not saying

490
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 2: that I like Lowtontown. I'm so close to betting it.

491
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 2: Like they're fourteen o one, they're at home, and I

492
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 2: just don't trust this art. Like the Arsenal pummels teams,

493
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:55,159
Speaker 2: I get it, but like their profile still doesn't scream

494
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,880
Speaker 2: like a team that I would want to I would,

495
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 2: I'd be afraid of here. I also think the draws lie.

496
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 2: I think that this louton drew. I mean they drew

497
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 2: Liverpool at home. Like this is a feisty bunch. They're

498
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 2: going you know what they're gonna there. Uh, their strategy

499
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 2: is going to be here, which is from the second

500
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 2: the game kicks off, they're gonna want it to be

501
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 2: a rock fight and make this one miserable. And this

502
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 2: is a bet schedule spot for Arsenal, Like this is

503
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:26,679
Speaker 2: this is a lot of soccer piling up on on

504
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 2: this team, so I guess I could just look at

505
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 2: the double chance.

506
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:33,919
Speaker 3: But no, Michael, here, I have a lottery ticket for

507
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:37,640
Speaker 3: you because Luton Town's got City coming up next at home,

508
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 3: so if you really want to want me to and

509
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 3: Lwton's twenty to one at home.

510
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:48,360
Speaker 2: So yeah, But that's my point is like I would

511
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 2: be if I'm not afraid of betting this Lowtontown team

512
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:53,920
Speaker 2: against either one of these opponents coming this way.

513
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,640
Speaker 3: I'm very afraid. Their defense is so bad against good teams.

514
00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 3: If you go through it for to four, expect goals

515
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 3: of Brighton two point two to Chelsea, two point nine

516
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 3: to Everton, two point nine to Forest two point three,

517
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 3: that Villa two point six to Liverpool, two point two

518
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 3: to United, then you know, over three.

519
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 4: To Brentford this weekend. They're just I love them to death.

520
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 3: I haven't been on him in a few weeks because

521
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,879
Speaker 3: they just keep playing good teams or teams that you

522
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,120
Speaker 3: know potentially aren't overvalued, but they just can't stop.

523
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:24,960
Speaker 4: Anybody that plays through the middle of the pitch. So

524
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 4: that's what Arsenal has been a good match for them

525
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:28,399
Speaker 4: to do.

526
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 3: It.

527
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 2: They're not going to need to stop anybody here.

528
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 1: Well, okay, so we need to ask the question, right

529
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 1: because Arsenal scored five of their first eight shots against

530
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: Long and then scored their first two against Wolves. If

531
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 1: you just watch the game, they certainly looked better, more fluid,

532
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 1: less struggle ball, more dynamic. Jaesus making a huge difference.

533
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 1: Ode Guard making that late run into the penalty area

534
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 1: that was like the defining goal of arsenal season last year,

535
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,920
Speaker 1: and he did it like now this year until Saturday

536
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:03,639
Speaker 1: against Wolves when they get the cut back to the

537
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 1: to like the ten yard area and then Goder guard

538
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 1: put it away. Is Arsenal back? Are they back?

539
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 2: Bj?

540
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 4: They've been back for a long time. Anty.

541
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 1: No, No, that's not true. I don't think you can

542
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:17,119
Speaker 1: watch Arsenal like the first eight matches, ten matches and

543
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 1: say that they're the same team that playing.

544
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 3: Said, their defense has been incredible all season long, and

545
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 3: yes they have the best offense. But again I will

546
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 3: say it from from get go, it's like Arsenal wasn't

547
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 3: a worse team.

548
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 4: They were just a different team than they were last year.

549
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: They were worse. No, there's in terms of competing for

550
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 1: the challengers in the title.

551
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:39,479
Speaker 3: Yes, no, their defense was significantly better and that's and

552
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 3: that's what made them different, not significantly worse. And yes,

553
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 3: the offense was bad, but again we talked about it

554
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,360
Speaker 3: many times. It's just they had problems playing through centrally,

555
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 3: and from what I've seen is they have done a

556
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 3: better job of invertings in chenkun to have been all the

557
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 3: pitch and they've been Obviously Troussard has been playing as

558
00:27:58,040 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 3: an eight trying to get forward, which has helped out

559
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 3: on guard I think comparatively to Kai Havertz. So I

560
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 3: think there's been a much you know, it kind of

561
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 3: takes me back to the match against Sevilla. They've been

562
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 3: making a much more point and effort to try and

563
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:15,880
Speaker 3: play through centrally instead of just taking the easy ball

564
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 3: out wide, and it's been working. So we'll see if

565
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 3: that continues. I'm hoping it will. You know, Lowton's one

566
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,119
Speaker 3: of the easiest teams to play through the middle against

567
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 3: in the Promera League, so we'll see.

568
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the thing too. I really just don't really

569
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 1: trust this defense. It's too at home. I'm definitely not

570
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 1: betting Arsenal here. I may not be betting Arsenal for

571
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 1: a long time, just putting that out there, just like,

572
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: based on where the market is and where I generally

573
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 1: feel about this team, I'm kind of going to be

574
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 1: the low man, But it doesn't mean I have to

575
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 1: bet against them, right I think you.

576
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 4: Know, well, you know that reason man they got. They

577
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 4: gotta go to Villa this weekend.

578
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 1: We'll see how they look against ours against City this week.

579
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 4: You'll be on PSV in the final Dayampions League.

580
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 1: Come on, there are plus a half like minus one ten,

581
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 1: it's not even I mean, we'll see what the number

582
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 1: looks like, what the lineups may look like. Who knows,

583
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 1: given the are So we're gonna play nine matches in

584
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 1: December seven, Premier League one, e FL Cup one, Champions League.

585
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: If our tea plays anybody in that match, I will

586
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 1: strongly question his managerial quality. They have a tough rubber

587
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 1: by the kids. Let's get some ut Smith row And

588
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 1: and Kiwior and Eddie can get some run.

589
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 3: After PSV they got Brighton and Liverpool back to back.

590
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's the moment, right Like, if they win

591
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 1: those matches, then we're gonna get a really good number

592
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 1: on City to win the league and if they don't,

593
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 1: then we're probably gonna have the other So I'm probably

594
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 1: gonna have the other side at least one of them,

595
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: So we'll see how that goes.

596
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, louton or draw for me, I'll figure it out.

597
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 1: Pass Uh. You know, it's funny and it's gonna be

598
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:55,959
Speaker 1: a miserable.

599
00:29:56,360 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 2: This just screams like a miserable, miserable game, just like

600
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 2: Arsenal four.

601
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 1: Nothing just well, they their last four so they've been

602
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 1: so dominant in this late run here. So many of

603
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 1: those games were at home. They played for their last

604
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 1: five at home. The only away game was the only

605
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 1: game they didn't dominate. That was the away game at Brentford.

606
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 1: And they played some really shitty teams.

607
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 2: Anybody they you haven't played anything since.

608
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 1: But also Luton is a really shitty team. I know,

609
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,440
Speaker 1: News Slash and Luton. They haven't gotten a lot of

610
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 1: the big teams at home, right. They played at Brighton,

611
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 1: they played at Chelsea, they played at Villa, they played

612
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 1: Liverpool at.

613
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 4: Home and just absolutely destroyed by all of them.

614
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I bet them in the first one and

615
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 1: didn't feel great about we won the bet, but it

616
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 1: was it was a luck box.

617
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 2: We got a red card, and yet you gotta need

618
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 2: to get lucky with this team, like.

619
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 1: Well taken two plus minus one ten.

620
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 2: You know, I guess, uh, Okay.

621
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: Luton to score first. Maybe maybeton Luton plus two and

622
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 1: a half live when they go down one nil. That

623
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 1: that's probably the best way Arsenal go in. They get

624
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 1: the goal and then they just pretend to they just

625
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 1: like stop playing the match and hope the other team agrees,

626
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 1: and then Wolves are like Looton score a lake goal

627
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 1: and everybody and then they have to like panic for

628
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 1: ten minutes because all of a sudden the match is on.

629
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 1: That's like probably the interesting way to play this.

630
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 2: You just join me in either Luton or the Drum

631
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 2: figured it out. Okay Brighton and Brentford neck Brighton's odds

632
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 2: on minus one ten favorite at home, Brentford Traveling plus

633
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 2: two seventy five and the draw is plus to eighty

634
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 2: two teams that we've We've I combined to Brian make

635
00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 2: the most money on as a podcast, at least in

636
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 2: the Premier League Champions League. With that via real run,

637
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 2: maybe gives us a run for the for its money.

638
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 2: But uh, with the way these two teams are going,

639
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 2: this one is pretty easy to make a bet on here.

640
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 2: I think I agree, Yes.

641
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 1: I just looks like, yeah.

642
00:31:56,480 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 2: I don't think Brighton's good enough to be an odds

643
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 2: on favorite against a good Premier League team right now,

644
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 2: even at home.

645
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 1: This is the Darling Bowl, right We've loved both of

646
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 1: these teams for so long and this is.

647
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 4: My least favorite match in the entire season.

648
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 1: I hate, But from a tactical perspective, I have to

649
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 1: credit Thomas Frank here because the Brentford we're watching this

650
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 1: year is different from the one we're watching last year.

651
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 1: The Brentford were watching this year is different from the

652
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 1: one that we watched last year and the one that

653
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 1: we watched in the Championship or didn't watch. And you know,

654
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 1: in my case, just like went back intod homework on

655
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 1: once they got promoted, because I started caring the Brentford

656
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 1: in the Premier in the Championship was a possession based

657
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 1: team who didn't look like they'd cut it defensively in

658
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 1: the prem They got to the prem and they became

659
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 1: a completely different team with mostly the same players and

660
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 1: became this defense, counter attack, set piece elite team and

661
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 1: this year their defensive numbers have taken a bit of

662
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 1: a dip, but their attacks better. They're playing this four

663
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 1: three three. BJ's talked about the formation change. Neil Malpey

664
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,880
Speaker 1: has come in and gotten them actual production. Of course,

665
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 1: Lisa and way Will have been good. They're more on

666
00:32:57,480 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 1: the front foot and we were willing to play a

667
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 1: basketball style match. Then the past Brentford teams and this

668
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 1: Brighton team they're actually different too, in the sense that

669
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 1: they've slowed the matches down. I mean, if you look

670
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 1: at Brighton and where they fit on the chart, the

671
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 1: analyst has a really good chart. It's like, are you

672
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 1: a fast, direct team like Everton or Lowton or are

673
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 1: you a slow intricate team like City is always in

674
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 1: the bottom right corner of the chart. The next team

675
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 1: is not Arsenal, which you might expect, but it's Brighton

676
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 1: and Arsenal kind of like in the same grouping. And

677
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 1: I think that's kind of for telling because when we

678
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 1: saw the Brighton at their best, they were able to

679
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 1: get these transition moments and look so dynamic in space.

680
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 1: They don't have that space anymore there. They've been slowed

681
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 1: down by the prem and I think Bja's talked about this,

682
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 1: like teams aren't taking the bait, they're not pressing as much.

683
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 1: I guess who's not going to press Brentford? And I

684
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 1: think you know, from a defensive perspective, who's better Brentford.

685
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 1: From an attacking perspective this season, Brentford have more expected

686
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 1: goals created and non penalty Do I think they're better

687
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 1: at an attack, No, but they're better on set pieces.

688
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 1: Brighton has struggled defensively on set pieces in a major way.

689
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 1: They give up two goals just today against Chelsea. I

690
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 1: think there's gonna be opportunities for Brentford on the break here.

691
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 1: You go back to last year Brighton AT's peak peak,

692
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 1: like we're creating like eight expected goals a match, couldn't

693
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 1: you know? They closed minus one forty five They needed

694
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,719
Speaker 1: a late McAllister penalty to get the draw. They created

695
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 1: over four expected goals in total, three and a third

696
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:27,439
Speaker 1: non penalty. But Brentford was constantly threatening on the break.

697
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:31,439
Speaker 1: They created almost two themselves and given their style, they're

698
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 1: going to give up more shots in this match, sure,

699
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 1: but the quality is going to be at the other end.

700
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:37,479
Speaker 1: So I like Brentford here plus a half in our

701
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 1: podcast Arby we're calling it because I just think that

702
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 1: there's more holes in this Brighton transition defense and Brentford

703
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 1: is well built to exploit them, maybe better than any

704
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 1: other team right now. So I like the Beasts.

705
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 3: I kind of like the under quite frankly, uwnders at

706
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 3: three given what we've seen from certain teams that have

707
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,399
Speaker 3: played against Brighton, and we've seen a lot of block

708
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,840
Speaker 3: teams play against them, And yeah, I have been mentioning

709
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 3: it and that Deservey has one plan. There's Plan A,

710
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:10,240
Speaker 3: and there's not a plan B because you know, quite frankly,

711
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 3: plan A has been working really well and been very

712
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:14,799
Speaker 3: good for a long time, so why even have a

713
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 3: Plan B. They have played against Fulham, Everton, Sheffield United

714
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:24,800
Speaker 3: and Nottingham Forest. In every single one of those matches

715
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 3: outside of you know, the Sheffield United matched there was

716
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 3: a red card and Sheffield played up a man and

717
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:32,919
Speaker 3: created a big chance at the very end, but none

718
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:36,319
Speaker 3: of those matches have come even close to over two

719
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:40,240
Speaker 3: and a half expected goals because teams are just limiting

720
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 3: central progression. Brighton's trying to overload the center part of

721
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 3: the pitch and it just becomes this stalemate for all

722
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:49,799
Speaker 3: ninety minutes and like, yeah, Anthony's right, Bradford's just gonna

723
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 3: sit there.

724
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 4: They're not gonna come out and press them.

725
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 3: They're just gonna limit that central progression and they're just

726
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:55,319
Speaker 3: gonna say you have to swing it out wide and

727
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 3: you have to beat us there, which you know right

728
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 3: now deserves been inverting Metoma in a drinker quite a bit.

729
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:07,879
Speaker 4: So it's yeah, it's I might just taking the under.

730
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:09,840
Speaker 3: I don't have any projected value on it, quite frankly,

731
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 3: because this is a very you know, very recent thing

732
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,280
Speaker 3: that's happened with Brighton, and if you use obviously data

733
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 3: from a very long stretch of time, they've been playing

734
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 3: these high scoring matches. In fact, I did see today

735
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,279
Speaker 3: that Brighton is the first team since Wolves in the

736
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:27,800
Speaker 3: nineteen thirties to score and concede in every single match

737
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:30,240
Speaker 3: to begin their season, which I thought was kind of funny.

738
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 3: But again, I mean, they haven't really been creating that

739
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:39,879
Speaker 3: many chances against these little blocks. So I'm gonna stare

740
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 3: at the under a long long time this week and

741
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 3: think about playing it, because given what we've seen recently

742
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 3: from Brighton, this match has the potential to be very

743
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 3: very boring and a stalemate for a very very long time,

744
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 3: and especially if Brentford gets a transition attack and scores

745
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 3: and goes up, then they're really really gonna sit in.

746
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 3: I'm not sure right it is capable right now, given

747
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:02,959
Speaker 3: what we've seen of breaking them down.

748
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 2: Okay, so Brentford for Anthony and myself and DJ will

749
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 2: take a look at the under. You'll just stare at

750
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 2: it and stare at it.

751
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, like Anthony said, like none of these matches ever

752
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:15,760
Speaker 3: go under anymore, So that's why I have to stare.

753
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 2: At it, okay, before we get to our next match.

754
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 2: A reminder about our friends at Caldera Lab. It's a

755
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766
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Speaker 2: impressions with Caldera Crystal Palace abornmitt out. Next this one,

780
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 2: we'll be at sell Hers Tars My cherries, Your cherries, Anthony.

781
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 2: We told you when they were struggling early on in

782
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 2: the year like this, did stick with the areola, stick

783
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 2: with the aiola. They'll come around and look at it.

784
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:00,360
Speaker 4: Assole.

785
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 1: We've got an unbeaten deserved draw.

786
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:06,279
Speaker 2: I'm beaten in three with win wind draw three wins

787
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:09,320
Speaker 2: in a draw in there last five, charging up the table,

788
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:15,319
Speaker 2: leaving Everden in their in their tusks. Now they go

789
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:19,959
Speaker 2: to Palace. Is a plus two thirty underdog, Palace plus

790
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 2: one fifteen and the draw is plus two fifty. Are

791
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 2: we buying high?

792
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, I mean this Markets.

793
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:30,879
Speaker 2: I don't want to be team this is. This is

794
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 2: You want to talk about easiest task on the board,

795
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:33,320
Speaker 2: just one.

796
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, as say they're talking about a quick return, but

797
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 1: that quick return will not be this week. Bournemouth like

798
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,879
Speaker 1: finally healthy, finally putting some pieces together, finally figuring out

799
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 1: this press. It's a good matchup for them because the

800
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 1: team is going to press them back. They're going to

801
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:48,720
Speaker 1: let them have the ball and do their own pressing.

802
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 1: And I think it's a decent matchup for Bournemouth. But

803
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 1: like the Market, I thought I would get like a

804
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:57,399
Speaker 1: clean plus a half and maybe consider it considerate. Even

805
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 1: then I'm not there. I still like this this Palace

806
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:03,239
Speaker 1: team enough that this is the easiest pass on the board,

807
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 1: and I don't really want to spend much time talking

808
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 1: about this, because we will get some fun Bornemus spots

809
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 1: coming up, just.

810
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 2: Not this one. That that's good enough for me. For

811
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 2: this one. Fulham and Forrest will stay in London. Here

812
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 2: falls plus one to ten hosting, not even Forrest coming

813
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:19,000
Speaker 2: off of a one nail defeat to Everton at home

814
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 2: this weekend. Forest plus two eighty and the draw here

815
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 2: is plus two forty. I like Forrest here, like, yeah,

816
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 2: this is this is pretty simp I know that you

817
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 2: know they're they're forums that great. They've lost four or

818
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 2: five three in a row. Not the type of team

819
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:41,400
Speaker 2: that we love to to back on the road. But

820
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 2: this Fulham team still like they're still so poor defensively,

821
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:49,840
Speaker 2: or there's still poor enough defensively that I don't really

822
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 2: care who the opposition is in the Premier League, maybe

823
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 2: outside of one particular team. If they're this, if you're

824
00:40:58,120 --> 00:40:59,839
Speaker 2: getting this, if you're dealing this big of a number

825
00:40:59,880 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 2: to go against them, appecially with a team like Forrest,

826
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 2: it's competent. We're now on close to fifty ish sixty

827
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 2: ish games, getting close to fifty five games of data

828
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 2: on Forrest at the Premier League. They're fine. I think

829
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:19,760
Speaker 2: they're kind of on level footing with Fulham.

830
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I wouldn't. He's out for a while now,

831
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 1: he's going under the knife. The injury they tried to

832
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:29,400
Speaker 1: play him through got worse. That's a big loss for

833
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:30,839
Speaker 1: this team because I do think it fits well into

834
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 1: what they want to do. But the key here, and

835
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 1: I think the key kind of statistic, is that Fulham

836
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:39,439
Speaker 1: has been the least efficient team at turning final third

837
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 1: entries into box entries. They have not been good at

838
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 1: getting those final balls in and consistently getting shots out

839
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 1: of it. They've been very good at scoring in converting

840
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:54,359
Speaker 1: chances when they do finally get there, finishing well above

841
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 1: their x G, but the shots just aren't there and

842
00:41:57,080 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 1: they we have to credit Marco Silva because he's done

843
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:01,839
Speaker 1: a how of a job given the talent, the fact

844
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:03,919
Speaker 1: that they have no goal scorers, in the fact they don't

845
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 1: have a striker and they get these midfield runs and

846
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 1: nobody ever picks them up. They worked against Liverpool, consistently

847
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 1: against Wolves, They're getting these late runs from it Woebee

848
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 1: and from Pereira and it works when they're able to

849
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 1: really tilt the field on teams. But they're still not

850
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 1: good at getting the ball into the area because they

851
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 1: have no real striker who's not washed because Red Wool plays,

852
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 1: but he doesn't ever get the shots. I was alarming

853
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 1: today just like watching him specifically closely because I had

854
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 1: Liverpool Fulham on the main screen this morning, Like you know,

855
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:35,840
Speaker 1: he gets one shot a game and it's never good.

856
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:39,760
Speaker 1: Where Venetias isn't better and Munis is out, Willian comes

857
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:42,279
Speaker 1: in like he's not giving them a ton either. So

858
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 1: this whole attack is, can we overwhelm you enough to

859
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:47,800
Speaker 1: get our one or two really good moments, be really

860
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 1: precise in those moments, get into the box, get our goals,

861
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 1: and then get out. And it has worked in credit

862
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 1: silver for it, but like it still feels so fragile

863
00:42:56,760 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 1: compared to Forrest, who have the op problem, where like

864
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 1: defensively they're gonna let you have the ball, but they're

865
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:04,839
Speaker 1: not gonna let you in their penalty area. And they've

866
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 1: actually done decent job of it. When matches don't become transitional,

867
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 1: they're pretty good. They're allowing the most final third entries,

868
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:13,359
Speaker 1: they have the lowest pass per defensive action, but they're

869
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:15,879
Speaker 1: only tenth and non penalty xg all out, So it's

870
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:18,840
Speaker 1: been a defense that's done a job of protecting the box,

871
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 1: and so with more numbers in the box, maybe that

872
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:23,280
Speaker 1: will keep them from Fulham getting all those late runners

873
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:27,280
Speaker 1: and getting all those big chances from there. And Forrest

874
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 1: has better EXG differential differential. I just really don't like

875
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 1: this Fulham team, and I know I bet against them

876
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 1: a lot. I just think that this whole system is

877
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 1: so fragile and incredibly reliant on an attacking style that

878
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:42,800
Speaker 1: doesn't feel like it's going to continue to translate. And

879
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:44,360
Speaker 1: we've seen it. I mean, they have some of the

880
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 1: lowest XG can produce in the league. They got two

881
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 1: goals today. The first two goals I really thought the

882
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 1: goalie should have saved both. Kellerher and we'll talk about

883
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:56,120
Speaker 1: Liverpool in a second, But like, they didn't really look

884
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:59,279
Speaker 1: dangerous to me on the break. It was more just

885
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:03,320
Speaker 1: like we got four really good attacks and happened to

886
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 1: score two of them, and all of a sudden, the

887
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 1: game's too two. So defensively, I didn't think they were

888
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 1: terrible today, but attack wise, there's just nothing there that's

889
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 1: dangerous as a favorite against a good box defense and force.

890
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, so Fulham has been a favorite three times this season.

891
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:21,600
Speaker 3: They beat Lootontown one nothing, they lost the x G battle,

892
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 3: They beat the worst team in the Premier League, Sheffield

893
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 3: the United three to one, and then they beat Wolves

894
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 3: on Monday and they got two penalties and one cross

895
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:33,839
Speaker 3: to a wobie. Like Anthony mentioned, it's just those three

896
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 3: and then that's the difference. So Nick, like Anthony already mentioned,

897
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 3: he hit the nail on the head. Is now Fulham's

898
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 3: going to be tasked with them having the ball and

899
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 3: having a breakdown on a low block, which I think

900
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 3: this match is going to play out very very similar

901
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 3: to what we just saw with Everton and Nottingham.

902
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 4: For us, which is a match for let's just.

903
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 3: Say the old heads out there, old style Route one football,

904
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 3: I mean, Michael. That second half Everton, I mean Forrest

905
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 3: was it was painful of times to watch. Nobody can

906
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 3: stay sustained possession. It was just cross after cross after cross,

907
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 3: just nobody could really do anything. And then you know

908
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 3: Dwayn McNeil just hits one great ball and back of

909
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:15,880
Speaker 3: the net and that's the difference. But you know, the

910
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 3: x G was very even in that match, So I

911
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:22,760
Speaker 3: think we're gonna see something similar here, a very Cagy

912
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 3: affair for a long stretches and it's really like Anthony said,

913
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 3: it's gonna come down to ken Fulham continually finish off

914
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:31,319
Speaker 3: the chances and continually finish above the x G, which

915
00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 3: against one of the best slow blocks in terms of

916
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 3: preventing teams of getting in their penalty area.

917
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 4: I'm not so sure they can do that, So I'm

918
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 4: with you guys. Not even Forest plus a half mins

919
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:41,320
Speaker 4: one twenty.

920
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:44,799
Speaker 2: Yep, Forest money line for me, no problem going. It's

921
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 2: just fullam team at these kind of prices. Do we

922
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 2: need to talk about Sheffield United and Liverpool?

923
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 1: Just don't tell the listeners to bet them again. That

924
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:55,719
Speaker 1: was that was really bad. They were dead in a

925
00:45:55,760 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 1: minute and there's no reprieve for me. Like Liverpool, Ha's

926
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:03,359
Speaker 1: been really bad away from home relatively speaking. I'll tell

927
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:04,799
Speaker 1: you what though, it is fun when you bet the

928
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:07,359
Speaker 1: good teams that today and I lost might just one

929
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:09,880
Speaker 1: and a half on Liverpool. But like boy, when they

930
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:12,480
Speaker 1: play like shit for like thirty minutes, because usually I

931
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:14,319
Speaker 1: have the dog right and I have the dog they're

932
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:16,720
Speaker 1: playing like shit or they're playing really well. The favorites

933
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:19,359
Speaker 1: playing like shit and then one of the really really

934
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 1: good players on the favorite team just does something and

935
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 1: I'm just like fuck, Like they hit a banger, they

936
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:28,760
Speaker 1: play a pass, no way should work, but it works.

937
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,040
Speaker 1: And then today like I had Liverpool and I'm like, man,

938
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 1: they stick, They're playing terrible, and then all of a sudden,

939
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 1: Trent hits a free kick from thirty yards. McAllister hits

940
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:38,719
Speaker 1: a thirty five yard screamer and I'm like, huh, I

941
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:40,120
Speaker 1: got a chance to win this bet even though I

942
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 1: have no business winning it, and then of course I didn't.

943
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 1: But I think you know, this Liverpool team, the downgrade

944
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 1: from Alison to Kelleher is large, and they really are

945
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 1: risky as a result. But like Sheffield United is we

946
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:55,920
Speaker 1: don't we haven't hit the bottom yet.

947
00:46:56,480 --> 00:47:00,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, are they evenbedable at this point? And they.

948
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 1: Don't even have an attacking player that you can point

949
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:06,359
Speaker 1: to and you could say, well, that player is really good.

950
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:07,080
Speaker 1: They could do something.

951
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:11,799
Speaker 3: I mean they signed from middles did against zero nine

952
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 3: x cheap or ninety.

953
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 2: Nie like that was the best archer was so good

954
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 2: against Everdence?

955
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:22,640
Speaker 4: Oh my go this is.

956
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 3: I will say though, this is pretty much the same

957
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:28,319
Speaker 3: price that Liverpool was at Lowtontown, So take that.

958
00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 4: What for what? Sheffield's worse and Sheffield.

959
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 1: You were wrong on that? I think well, I mean

960
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:33,759
Speaker 1: there were warning signs that they could be worse.

961
00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 4: They didn't.

962
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 1: They got worse in the window. They had numbers that

963
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 1: didn't really make sense in the championship, Like we were like,

964
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:41,400
Speaker 1: this team is like tenth in possession in the Championship.

965
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 1: How like they never have the ball in the box,

966
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 1: So like, is that ever going to work in the

967
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,319
Speaker 1: prem We weren't sure. We were like, well maybe, but

968
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 1: it turns out they're worse.

969
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:52,319
Speaker 3: And also Liverpool as the injuries, so if everybody was healthy,

970
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:53,479
Speaker 3: I'm sure Liverpool would be higher.

971
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 2: So it does break up a fun betting exercise. Something

972
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 2: to think about too, is like we talk about this

973
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:06,759
Speaker 2: online Change the Hockey podcast a bunch like the roller

974
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:09,319
Speaker 2: coaster ride of betting a bed hockey team or bed

975
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 2: soccer team, the underdog going up three to one or

976
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 2: in soccer like one nil, the stress of having to

977
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 2: hold on to that lead and you got a white

978
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:24,279
Speaker 2: knuckle on the couch and just survive a storm, versus

979
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 2: going the other way, which is laying a number on

980
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:29,760
Speaker 2: a favorite and the stress you'd feel going down early

981
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:33,200
Speaker 2: and then having to be on the other side of it,

982
00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 2: and which is worse, and it's just fun to think about.

983
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 3: I'll tell you what, it's all painful and stressful.

984
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 2: All it is. I'll tell you what. Just bet betting

985
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:45,799
Speaker 2: darts is never, never painful, and we'll be talking some

986
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:47,680
Speaker 2: darts as we get the thing.

987
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 1: About it is. And I do this with over underslot,

988
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 1: like for like Inter Benfica last week in the Champions League,

989
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 1: I had over two and a half and it was

990
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 1: two nil inside fifteen minutes, but then we got to

991
00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:58,879
Speaker 1: like the thirty third minute and they hadn't scored yet,

992
00:48:58,880 --> 00:48:59,960
Speaker 1: and I was just like in my head, on my

993
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:02,800
Speaker 1: this is gonna lose. He's gonna end too noil. But

994
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 1: but when it's the other way around and I have

995
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:06,719
Speaker 1: the under, like it could if I have the under

996
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:08,680
Speaker 1: two and a half and it's two nil after thirty

997
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:10,840
Speaker 1: eight minutes, just in my mind, I'm like, I'm like,

998
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 1: I'm still winning. No until that goal goes in, I'm winning.

999
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:16,640
Speaker 1: So I psychology thing.

1000
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:17,799
Speaker 4: I move on.

1001
00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:21,480
Speaker 3: See, I've tried to be better this season about not

1002
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 3: panicking when you fall behind or anything like that. I've

1003
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:26,319
Speaker 3: tried just to like stay calm and say like it's

1004
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:27,239
Speaker 3: a long match.

1005
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 1: Like they don't even celebrate when I go ahead anymore

1006
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:31,720
Speaker 1: because I've had so many late losers anything.

1007
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 3: Oh see, I'm helping right now. Okay, I've changed my

1008
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:38,959
Speaker 3: attitude this season. Celebrate the goals, laugh at.

1009
00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:40,759
Speaker 4: The ones they go against you, and then you'll have

1010
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 4: a much better.

1011
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:44,759
Speaker 2: I generally agree, but I bet all under posters that

1012
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:48,560
Speaker 2: you'd see yea like an.

1013
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:51,040
Speaker 1: Underdogs card when it when all the games start at

1014
00:49:51,080 --> 00:49:52,879
Speaker 1: the same time, Like I have like five bets. Let's

1015
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:54,760
Speaker 1: say there's five games, I have like two or three bets.

1016
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 1: I'm pretty much always like I don't want to ever

1017
00:49:57,480 --> 00:49:59,040
Speaker 1: get a goal er. If I don't get a single

1018
00:49:59,080 --> 00:50:00,600
Speaker 1: goal er today, I've had a good day because the

1019
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:02,759
Speaker 1: underdogs and the unders probably did well. When I just

1020
00:50:02,840 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 1: keep getting bad, like like earlier today when Liverpool scored

1021
00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:10,120
Speaker 1: but then also Villa scored, but then also west Ham scored,

1022
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 1: like all in the same minute, I was like, shoot,

1023
00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:14,759
Speaker 1: like that's actually net negative for me. Like I'm like,

1024
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 1: I'm like I didn't want any of those goals to

1025
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:17,760
Speaker 1: be scored. Just don't give me any goals.

1026
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:21,839
Speaker 4: We don't like. So that's just basically the just a thing.

1027
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:23,239
Speaker 1: That's that's the beauty of it.

1028
00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:25,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, beauty of our podcast.

1029
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 2: Uh, we can't promise.

1030
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:29,319
Speaker 1: Except in this next match, which I will will be

1031
00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:30,359
Speaker 1: rooting for goals.

1032
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 2: You can't promise to make you like soccer more. We

1033
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 2: will promise to make you feel something, though, and feel

1034
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:44,239
Speaker 2: something we will in Everton and Newcastle, the Toffees posting

1035
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:47,880
Speaker 2: the Magpies Everton plus two twenty on the three way line,

1036
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:50,879
Speaker 2: Newcastle plus one thirty in the jaw is plus two

1037
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:55,520
Speaker 2: plus two twenty five. What a what a clinical professional

1038
00:50:55,520 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 2: effort for both of these teams over the weekend. They

1039
00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 2: did exactly what they needed to do. I think is

1040
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:04,400
Speaker 2: the perfect way to put how they played against Manchester

1041
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:07,120
Speaker 2: United and not Ingham Forest respectively. And I think you

1042
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 2: guys are onto something. This one feels like it could

1043
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 2: get very funky, very very very very funky with Everett

1044
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:19,400
Speaker 2: at home, with that that rockous atmosphere, Anthony Gordon's return

1045
00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:23,200
Speaker 2: like this, this could be a weird one, like a

1046
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:25,960
Speaker 2: real fun I hope it's raining. I hope was just

1047
00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:31,000
Speaker 2: lashing rain and we'll see some you know, the once

1048
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:35,359
Speaker 2: or twice a season four to three, five four kind

1049
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:39,360
Speaker 2: of four to four tie that gets dealt to us

1050
00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:42,120
Speaker 2: because it does feel like this thing, of all the

1051
00:51:42,120 --> 00:51:44,240
Speaker 2: matches on the board, this one probably has the most ranges,

1052
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:46,200
Speaker 2: the widest range of outcomes speech it.

1053
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, so coming into this match, I actually showed quite

1054
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 3: a bit of value on Newcastle. But giving the improvements

1055
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 3: for Everton and the injuries for Newcastle, I don't want

1056
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 3: to plan that, but I am showing a line of

1057
00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 3: value on the over and their first thought about it, Tackley,

1058
00:51:58,480 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 3: I was like, I think ever are just gonna hand

1059
00:52:00,640 --> 00:52:02,000
Speaker 3: them the ball and they're not gonna dare him to

1060
00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:04,520
Speaker 3: break them down. And I'm not sure Newcastle's really gonna.

1061
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:04,840
Speaker 4: Be able to do that.

1062
00:52:04,920 --> 00:52:08,440
Speaker 3: But as I look through the data, there's only been

1063
00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 3: three matches in the Premier League this season where a

1064
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:14,400
Speaker 3: Newcastle match has had under two and a half expectacles created.

1065
00:52:14,719 --> 00:52:17,719
Speaker 3: It was against City, Brentford and Arsenal. The City and

1066
00:52:17,840 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 3: Arsenal Matt and Urches. You know, those the two of

1067
00:52:19,600 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 3: the best ball control teams in the Premier League, very

1068
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:24,719
Speaker 3: very conservative approaches from both teams. And then Brentford's the

1069
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:26,680
Speaker 3: best lettle of block team and basically just dared Newcastle

1070
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:27,239
Speaker 3: and break them down.

1071
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:29,240
Speaker 4: They really couldn't do it. But every other.

1072
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:31,560
Speaker 3: Match has just evolved into chaos. And something I've been

1073
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 3: saying over and over on this podcast is that teams

1074
00:52:34,239 --> 00:52:39,640
Speaker 3: get drawn into this transitional battle with Newcastle because either

1075
00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:41,160
Speaker 3: they're not good enough to build out of the back,

1076
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:43,080
Speaker 3: so they have to send the ball along and just

1077
00:52:43,120 --> 00:52:46,040
Speaker 3: becomes this back and forth transitional match, which I'm expecting

1078
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:49,400
Speaker 3: this one to be. But there is a chance that

1079
00:52:49,440 --> 00:52:51,200
Speaker 3: Everton just sits in a four to four one one

1080
00:52:51,200 --> 00:52:53,560
Speaker 3: and just like says, hey, like I dare you to

1081
00:52:53,600 --> 00:52:54,200
Speaker 3: break us down.

1082
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 4: That's the worry here, obviously.

1083
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 3: But when you look at the Newcastle team, given the

1084
00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:01,000
Speaker 3: injuries some of they have, you know, Sean Longstaff, that's

1085
00:53:01,000 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 3: one of the best ball stoppers in the middle of

1086
00:53:02,600 --> 00:53:04,960
Speaker 3: the pitch. You know, Lewis Miley has done great in

1087
00:53:04,960 --> 00:53:06,919
Speaker 3: that role, but he's not really a ball stopper either.

1088
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:10,000
Speaker 3: You know, LaSalle's and Shaw have done great as a

1089
00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 3: center back pairing, but you know Boatman's still out. Dan

1090
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:15,919
Speaker 3: Byrne is obviously, you know, an incredible defender at left back.

1091
00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:18,240
Speaker 3: Their mental has been played really really good. But again,

1092
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:21,920
Speaker 3: stopping teams in transition. You would prefer to have these

1093
00:53:21,960 --> 00:53:24,000
Speaker 3: type of guys over what Newcastle is playing right now.

1094
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:26,480
Speaker 3: And obviously Nick Pope is also injured as well, so

1095
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 3: there is some defensive question marks for Newcastle how they

1096
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:34,520
Speaker 3: stop Everton transition with Michael. I hate to say it,

1097
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:37,800
Speaker 3: but Dominic Calvert Lewins injured again he did not play

1098
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:39,680
Speaker 3: against not Forest.

1099
00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:41,320
Speaker 4: Is great.

1100
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:43,319
Speaker 3: He is great for this type of role. He's a

1101
00:53:43,480 --> 00:53:47,920
Speaker 3: really really good transition forward who can get in behind defenses.

1102
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:51,799
Speaker 3: And my question is Everton good enough in their little

1103
00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 3: block to stop Newcastle because Branford's been really the only

1104
00:53:55,080 --> 00:53:58,240
Speaker 3: team that's been able to stop them at full strength,

1105
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:00,839
Speaker 3: and I'm not sure Everton is. You know, the defense

1106
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:04,360
Speaker 3: and foremantists have been good against certain teams, but in

1107
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:06,320
Speaker 3: a match like this, I feel like it's going to

1108
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:09,719
Speaker 3: be just transition basketball back and forth, and especially if

1109
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:13,600
Speaker 3: Newcastle scores first, then we get this crazy back and

1110
00:54:13,640 --> 00:54:16,839
Speaker 3: forth type match. So projected a little over three goals

1111
00:54:16,880 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 3: for this match, so I do like over two and

1112
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:22,120
Speaker 3: a half at minus one twenty five, purely kind of

1113
00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:24,440
Speaker 3: just in numbers play, and given the personnel we have

1114
00:54:24,520 --> 00:54:26,560
Speaker 3: on the field, I'm sure there's enough ball stopping for

1115
00:54:26,640 --> 00:54:28,320
Speaker 3: Newcastle to stop Everton in transition.

1116
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:31,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Everton's best ball stoppers Orana, he's likely out here.

1117
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:34,520
Speaker 1: Everton's second and direct attacking speed, they're going to bypass

1118
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:37,359
Speaker 1: Newcastle press. I wrote in my notes quite literally, this

1119
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 1: is the quote basketball game of the week. Neither team

1120
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:43,000
Speaker 1: wastes time and possession. Both teams want to have. They're

1121
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:44,800
Speaker 1: gonna send the ball forward immediately. There's not going to

1122
00:54:44,880 --> 00:54:47,280
Speaker 1: be a lot of like cycling the ball through wasting time.

1123
00:54:48,040 --> 00:54:50,040
Speaker 1: And I think that all translates to the over So

1124
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:52,520
Speaker 1: I agree entirely, and I like the over.

1125
00:54:52,560 --> 00:54:54,399
Speaker 2: All right fun one goodess in park, Like I said,

1126
00:54:54,440 --> 00:54:59,799
Speaker 2: good atmosphere to be expected. All right, we'll wrap up

1127
00:54:59,800 --> 00:55:03,759
Speaker 2: with Furst and west Ham London Derby Spurs minus one

1128
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:06,560
Speaker 2: thirty four at home. The hammer's traveling at plus three

1129
00:55:06,600 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 2: twenty and the draws also plus three twenty. I don't

1130
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 2: think I'm gonna be laying it here with Spurs. West

1131
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:15,680
Speaker 2: Ham try me insane.

1132
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:20,719
Speaker 1: So they're defending. So they're defending is so bad? Yeah,

1133
00:55:20,719 --> 00:55:23,279
Speaker 1: this is Mavrapanos was trying to give up goals and

1134
00:55:23,280 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 1: then eventually he was like, all right, it's not working,

1135
00:55:25,120 --> 00:55:27,759
Speaker 1: I'm just going to pass directly to Edward and see

1136
00:55:27,800 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 1: what happens. And then eventually he scored. I mean, it

1137
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:32,720
Speaker 1: was unbelievable how bad their center backs have been. Zuma

1138
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:34,399
Speaker 1: goes out and like I was like, oh, maybe their

1139
00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:36,479
Speaker 1: defense will be better, because like it can't be worse,

1140
00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:39,440
Speaker 1: but like it was worse. I think it's a really

1141
00:55:39,440 --> 00:55:42,759
Speaker 1: bad matchup for west Ham because I think Spurs can

1142
00:55:42,800 --> 00:55:46,520
Speaker 1: take advantage of the scheme with their ability to press

1143
00:55:46,520 --> 00:55:49,320
Speaker 1: and just keep west Ham pending. And I think Spurs

1144
00:55:49,520 --> 00:55:51,319
Speaker 1: will take advantage of the fact that Ward Prouse does

1145
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:52,879
Speaker 1: nothing in the midfield when he doesn't have the ball.

1146
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:55,440
Speaker 1: I think that's a problem for them. They do get

1147
00:55:55,480 --> 00:55:57,480
Speaker 1: Rich Charleston back. He came out as a sub. I

1148
00:55:57,480 --> 00:56:00,080
Speaker 1: think he may start now. Brian Heal is terrible, so

1149
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:03,040
Speaker 1: him getting out is an upgrade for them. That's nice.

1150
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:06,120
Speaker 1: Romero is back from suspension. They're gonna have three capable

1151
00:56:06,160 --> 00:56:09,600
Speaker 1: defenders instead of two in their defense maybe one at times.

1152
00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:12,719
Speaker 1: And Lose also has been really impressive and I think

1153
00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:15,160
Speaker 1: that's a credit to Ange. So I actually buy low

1154
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:16,960
Speaker 1: on Spurs here if I can get minus one twenty,

1155
00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:19,799
Speaker 1: So that's my byprice right now, I'm passing. But if

1156
00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:21,440
Speaker 1: it gets to minus one twenty at home, I just

1157
00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:23,600
Speaker 1: think that's short. And I've been kind of a skeptic

1158
00:56:23,640 --> 00:56:25,400
Speaker 1: of Spurs, but I think this is a friendly matchup

1159
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:26,880
Speaker 1: for them to kind of get a couple of goals

1160
00:56:26,920 --> 00:56:29,799
Speaker 1: and dare west Ham to match them. Spurs set piece

1161
00:56:29,840 --> 00:56:33,239
Speaker 1: defense has been okay, not great, but okay. So I

1162
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:35,200
Speaker 1: like Spurs at home, but again I need a little

1163
00:56:35,200 --> 00:56:36,719
Speaker 1: bit better of a number for me to bet.

1164
00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:39,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, Michael, I was thinking about this match,

1165
00:56:39,520 --> 00:56:42,080
Speaker 3: and you know, sometimes the plays in your playbook just

1166
00:56:42,120 --> 00:56:44,640
Speaker 3: aren't working, so you got to go to somebody else's playbook.

1167
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:47,000
Speaker 3: So I went to the Debundo playbook for this one.

1168
00:56:47,239 --> 00:56:49,799
Speaker 3: Over two and a half, both teams to score minus

1169
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:53,319
Speaker 3: one thirty eight. West Ham is conceding one point eight

1170
00:56:53,360 --> 00:56:58,120
Speaker 3: expectacles for nine minutes. That's outrageously large, especially in this

1171
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:00,759
Speaker 3: type of match where the aggression level is going to

1172
00:57:00,760 --> 00:57:01,360
Speaker 3: be turned.

1173
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:02,840
Speaker 4: Up quite high.

1174
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:05,520
Speaker 3: Spurs is going to press them, They're going to press

1175
00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:06,920
Speaker 3: them relentlessly and they're going to try to win the

1176
00:57:06,960 --> 00:57:09,040
Speaker 3: ball back. West Ham is probably just going to send

1177
00:57:09,040 --> 00:57:11,279
Speaker 3: the ball on the thing that worries me here for

1178
00:57:11,360 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 3: Spurs is obviously Andre wants to.

1179
00:57:13,560 --> 00:57:14,759
Speaker 4: Build out on two three five.

1180
00:57:15,120 --> 00:57:18,600
Speaker 3: Romero being back is great, but Van Deven what he

1181
00:57:18,720 --> 00:57:20,560
Speaker 3: was so good at is because he had sucked not

1182
00:57:20,600 --> 00:57:22,560
Speaker 3: only easy Greades Vender in space, but he was so

1183
00:57:22,680 --> 00:57:24,920
Speaker 3: fast like he could stop any type of attacker that

1184
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:27,560
Speaker 3: was going forward. Well, the downgrade from him was surely

1185
00:57:27,600 --> 00:57:30,080
Speaker 3: to be I guess probably Ben Davies had left center

1186
00:57:30,120 --> 00:57:33,760
Speaker 3: back would be the best reliable option. Who is playing

1187
00:57:33,760 --> 00:57:35,560
Speaker 3: out there at right wing for west Ham who can

1188
00:57:35,600 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 3: cause all types of havoc and chaos. It's Kudus who's

1189
00:57:39,560 --> 00:57:42,240
Speaker 3: honestly their best player at this point. And that's the

1190
00:57:42,240 --> 00:57:44,680
Speaker 3: worry here for Topingham is that when they decide to

1191
00:57:44,720 --> 00:57:46,880
Speaker 3: press and west Ham just tries to go over the

1192
00:57:46,880 --> 00:57:49,440
Speaker 3: top and invade that they have a lot of really

1193
00:57:49,480 --> 00:57:52,200
Speaker 3: pace the attackers that can cause a lot of problems

1194
00:57:52,200 --> 00:57:55,160
Speaker 3: for Spurs back lines. So I think this match just

1195
00:57:55,280 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 3: is going to turn into complete chaos. I don't really

1196
00:57:58,320 --> 00:58:01,040
Speaker 3: like the pois is on over three are both teams

1197
00:58:01,040 --> 00:58:04,120
Speaker 3: of score, so just going to the Dundo playbook over

1198
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:06,800
Speaker 3: two and a half and both teams of score minus

1199
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:07,200
Speaker 3: one thirty.

1200
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:13,120
Speaker 2: The Dubundo playbook. Love to see it all right real quick.

1201
00:58:13,160 --> 00:58:16,680
Speaker 2: Before we get to underdogs and best bets, Anthony wanted

1202
00:58:16,720 --> 00:58:19,120
Speaker 2: to talk about the defeat.

1203
00:58:19,200 --> 00:58:19,640
Speaker 4: Pop call.

1204
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:22,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually have three bets. I like stick Guard

1205
00:58:22,200 --> 00:58:25,120
Speaker 1: at home plus one twenty five against Dortmund. Not a

1206
00:58:25,280 --> 00:58:27,200
Speaker 1: dissimilar spot to the one we bet a few weeks ago.

1207
00:58:27,240 --> 00:58:28,360
Speaker 1: We have to pay a little bit more now, but

1208
00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:30,640
Speaker 1: I'm still okay betting it. I don't think Dorton will care.

1209
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:32,920
Speaker 1: They're in the Champions League. They have that next week.

1210
00:58:33,360 --> 00:58:34,880
Speaker 1: I think this is a good spot to get stuck

1211
00:58:34,920 --> 00:58:36,919
Speaker 1: Guard at home where they've been the better, much better team.

1212
00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:40,480
Speaker 1: I like Glad Boch plus one twenty at home against Wolfsburg. Again,

1213
00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:43,120
Speaker 1: this glad back attack is really figuring some things out.

1214
00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:45,160
Speaker 1: I still think Wolfsburg away from home have been an

1215
00:58:45,160 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 1: absolute disaster this year. And then I like our boys

1216
00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:51,200
Speaker 1: Hamburger at Berlin Johno bet minus one ten. I think

1217
00:58:51,720 --> 00:58:53,600
Speaker 1: if you follow this pod, you know we like this team.

1218
00:58:53,640 --> 00:58:55,880
Speaker 1: We keep hoping they come up in the in the

1219
00:58:55,880 --> 00:58:58,640
Speaker 1: Bundesliga two. They keep getting into the playoff and losing,

1220
00:58:59,080 --> 00:59:01,880
Speaker 1: but they're much better trend line than than Haita. So

1221
00:59:02,480 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 1: I like those three in the in the pocal on

1222
00:59:04,440 --> 00:59:05,840
Speaker 1: Tuesday and Wednesday, and I.

1223
00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:08,200
Speaker 3: Will say, Michael, I may have a couple of plays

1224
00:59:08,240 --> 00:59:11,160
Speaker 3: on this, but I have some news dropping on Tuesday

1225
00:59:11,160 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 3: morning that people need to look out for. So I

1226
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:15,280
Speaker 3: might have some place for it, but just stay tuned

1227
00:59:15,280 --> 00:59:15,960
Speaker 3: in my Twitter.

1228
00:59:15,720 --> 00:59:17,680
Speaker 1: And the unexpected news.

1229
00:59:17,360 --> 00:59:20,720
Speaker 3: Perhaps unexpected news coming on Tuesday for the people that hope.

1230
00:59:20,600 --> 00:59:22,320
Speaker 1: Not nearly as exciting as we've just teased it.

1231
00:59:22,520 --> 00:59:23,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, it won't be that exciting.

1232
00:59:23,720 --> 00:59:25,840
Speaker 3: Actually, people will not be very impored with it, but

1233
00:59:26,280 --> 00:59:27,520
Speaker 3: it is news.

1234
00:59:27,400 --> 00:59:33,920
Speaker 2: Nevertheless, riveting, riveting stuff. The first the first teaser in

1235
00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:38,880
Speaker 2: this podcast history, and you set it up beautifully. Okay,

1236
00:59:39,000 --> 00:59:45,760
Speaker 2: Underdog Parlay Time, Losers Only, Losers We've we've started to

1237
00:59:46,840 --> 00:59:48,920
Speaker 2: I used to. I used to rent an internal golf

1238
00:59:49,000 --> 00:59:51,920
Speaker 2: newsletter called Losers Weekly. So Losers Only is right up

1239
00:59:51,920 --> 00:59:57,000
Speaker 2: there with It's a it's a great title. Last three

1240
00:59:57,480 --> 01:00:00,440
Speaker 2: no I think we have we're doing, We're doing it's

1241
01:00:00,480 --> 01:00:03,240
Speaker 2: and this is the this is the one.

1242
01:00:03,200 --> 01:00:07,480
Speaker 1: I'll start go Brentford Brentford three to one. I mean

1243
01:00:07,520 --> 01:00:09,240
Speaker 1: I talked about why I like them plus a half.

1244
01:00:09,240 --> 01:00:10,960
Speaker 1: I thus also liked them on the money Line. Brighton

1245
01:00:10,960 --> 01:00:13,920
Speaker 1: plays these high variant matchups. Branford has been a great dog.

1246
01:00:14,240 --> 01:00:17,080
Speaker 1: We've probably featured them more than any other team. Uh,

1247
01:00:17,120 --> 01:00:19,160
Speaker 1: and I like them in this spot as well. Go

1248
01:00:19,320 --> 01:00:21,440
Speaker 1: Bees to short and Slate. You know, we only have

1249
01:00:21,480 --> 01:00:22,160
Speaker 1: so much to work with.

1250
01:00:22,720 --> 01:00:26,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know. And you guys, you guys won't let

1251
01:00:26,840 --> 01:00:28,760
Speaker 2: me pick the one I really want to go with here.

1252
01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:30,520
Speaker 4: Because it keeps losing. Stop.

1253
01:00:31,280 --> 01:00:36,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, you need to stop betting against Arsenal. We're banning taking.

1254
01:00:36,440 --> 01:00:38,720
Speaker 3: On fun for a third of this podcast.

1255
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:41,480
Speaker 1: I don't even think it's fun because Arsenal. Then I

1256
01:00:41,520 --> 01:00:43,320
Speaker 1: watched the match and it's hopeless.

1257
01:00:43,760 --> 01:00:46,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm not allowed to go with Lutontown.

1258
01:00:46,760 --> 01:00:47,600
Speaker 1: No, No, Luton Town.

1259
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:51,600
Speaker 2: And if they win, you guys, I will.

1260
01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:53,400
Speaker 1: I'll send you out. I will mail you an apology letter.

1261
01:00:53,560 --> 01:00:56,080
Speaker 2: You guys won't be on the podcast for Iftontown wins.

1262
01:00:56,120 --> 01:00:58,320
Speaker 1: I will mail you a handwritten apology letter.

1263
01:00:58,920 --> 01:01:00,880
Speaker 4: I'll ousands of your bet.

1264
01:01:01,640 --> 01:01:04,160
Speaker 2: You guys will both be banned from the podcast for

1265
01:01:04,800 --> 01:01:07,520
Speaker 2: through the festive fixture. I think it's a fair price

1266
01:01:07,600 --> 01:01:12,080
Speaker 2: to pay. So, with my hands tied, I'm gonna have

1267
01:01:12,120 --> 01:01:13,360
Speaker 2: to go with Nottingham Forest.

1268
01:01:13,920 --> 01:01:15,320
Speaker 1: I thought he was gonna say Sheffield.

1269
01:01:15,360 --> 01:01:21,600
Speaker 2: I thought I thought he was gonna say Sheffield wish

1270
01:01:21,760 --> 01:01:25,960
Speaker 2: Now I'll go forrest here. We made We made all

1271
01:01:25,960 --> 01:01:27,640
Speaker 2: the points you need to like this falling team. Just

1272
01:01:27,720 --> 01:01:31,160
Speaker 2: shouldn't You should never really look at them when they're

1273
01:01:31,280 --> 01:01:36,640
Speaker 2: weir favorite and very little between these two teams. I

1274
01:01:36,640 --> 01:01:39,080
Speaker 2: think you could make a pretty fair argument that Nottingham

1275
01:01:39,120 --> 01:01:43,680
Speaker 2: Forest is better than Fully So, uh, this looks like

1276
01:01:43,720 --> 01:01:46,200
Speaker 2: a good number. Plus two eighty on the Tricky Trees.

1277
01:01:46,960 --> 01:01:52,080
Speaker 3: DJ Burnley plus three forty obviously already talked about them,

1278
01:01:52,080 --> 01:01:55,600
Speaker 3: But Bernley he's been profiling pretty well as versus these

1279
01:01:55,600 --> 01:01:57,120
Speaker 3: teams in the bottom half of the table. Actually, I

1280
01:01:57,120 --> 01:01:59,200
Speaker 3: have a positive expect to gold differential in five match

1281
01:01:59,240 --> 01:02:03,240
Speaker 3: as well. Wolves potentially could be without Jose Saw probably

1282
01:02:03,240 --> 01:02:06,560
Speaker 3: still no Pedro Nato, and Wolves hasn't profiled well as

1283
01:02:06,560 --> 01:02:09,160
Speaker 3: a favorite either this season. Minus two point one expected

1284
01:02:09,160 --> 01:02:11,720
Speaker 3: old differential, so a little bit inflated price here on Wolves.

1285
01:02:11,720 --> 01:02:13,240
Speaker 4: So Burnly plus three forty.

1286
01:02:14,280 --> 01:02:16,880
Speaker 2: This one pays out right around sixty six to one.

1287
01:02:17,200 --> 01:02:20,280
Speaker 2: If you want to throw in another one with Lootontown

1288
01:02:20,320 --> 01:02:22,680
Speaker 2: and instead of uh four.

1289
01:02:22,680 --> 01:02:24,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't, I can't. You can't give it up.

1290
01:02:24,600 --> 01:02:28,640
Speaker 2: That was two forty three Okay, best bets for the

1291
01:02:28,640 --> 01:02:31,320
Speaker 2: midweeks late. I'll go first because I just talked about him.

1292
01:02:31,360 --> 01:02:34,720
Speaker 2: I'll stay with Forrest on the money line. I think

1293
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:36,800
Speaker 2: this is a great, great value on. I'm the tricky

1294
01:02:36,840 --> 01:02:39,800
Speaker 2: trees against a very vulnerable favorite even at home in

1295
01:02:39,920 --> 01:02:40,960
Speaker 2: Fulham bj.

1296
01:02:41,680 --> 01:02:44,840
Speaker 3: Aston Villa plus a half plus one twenty against Manchester City.

1297
01:02:45,240 --> 01:02:48,080
Speaker 3: Really really tough run of fixtures here for City, who

1298
01:02:48,080 --> 01:02:51,200
Speaker 3: have had to play Chelsea, Liverpool, RB Leipzig and Todd

1299
01:02:51,240 --> 01:02:52,520
Speaker 3: them all back to back and now they have to

1300
01:02:52,560 --> 01:02:54,720
Speaker 3: travel on the road to aston Villa, who has won

1301
01:02:54,840 --> 01:02:58,280
Speaker 3: thirteen straight Premier League matches at home. The game plan

1302
01:02:58,440 --> 01:03:00,760
Speaker 3: here for aston Villa is pretty simple. They're going to

1303
01:03:00,760 --> 01:03:02,480
Speaker 3: sit in a very narrow four to four to two

1304
01:03:02,520 --> 01:03:05,400
Speaker 3: out of possession. They're going to limit that central progression

1305
01:03:05,720 --> 01:03:08,760
Speaker 3: which City is not going to have. Rodri and that's

1306
01:03:08,920 --> 01:03:10,560
Speaker 3: very very big for him because he leads them and

1307
01:03:10,600 --> 01:03:13,880
Speaker 3: passes into the final third and progressive passes in the

1308
01:03:13,880 --> 01:03:16,320
Speaker 3: next closest guy is Kyle Walker, who's a very very

1309
01:03:16,360 --> 01:03:18,120
Speaker 3: far behind him in the light for the light swap.

1310
01:03:18,480 --> 01:03:21,280
Speaker 3: Whether it's Riko Lewis or whether it's Kovacic, isn't the

1311
01:03:21,320 --> 01:03:24,400
Speaker 3: same type of player as rodri and also City will

1312
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:27,320
Speaker 3: be without Jag Realish and Jeremy Doku, who are their

1313
01:03:27,320 --> 01:03:30,640
Speaker 3: best outlets against aston Villa's high lines. So it's a

1314
01:03:30,720 --> 01:03:33,200
Speaker 3: very very difficult match up here for City on the road.

1315
01:03:33,240 --> 01:03:36,480
Speaker 3: And aston Villa has been a very very good, technically

1316
01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:40,040
Speaker 3: versatile team. They've had sixteen matches in her memory where

1317
01:03:40,040 --> 01:03:42,760
Speaker 3: they've held under fifty percent possession and they're nine to

1318
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:44,880
Speaker 3: one and six in those matches. So it's a good

1319
01:03:44,880 --> 01:03:47,200
Speaker 3: spot here for Villa at home where they've been so good.

1320
01:03:47,240 --> 01:03:48,960
Speaker 4: So like them plus a half at plus one point.

1321
01:03:49,040 --> 01:03:52,080
Speaker 1: Over two and a half Everton Newcastle minus one ten.

1322
01:03:52,520 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be very back and forth,

1323
01:03:54,280 --> 01:03:56,960
Speaker 1: very transitional. Newcastle has a way of doing that to teams.

1324
01:03:57,240 --> 01:04:01,280
Speaker 1: Everton is happy to play that style. Everton's defense has

1325
01:04:01,440 --> 01:04:05,640
Speaker 1: improved a good amount under Dish this year. But again,

1326
01:04:05,760 --> 01:04:08,520
Speaker 1: you know, we talked about this Newcastle team there. They

1327
01:04:08,520 --> 01:04:10,520
Speaker 1: are missing some midfield players and neither team wants to

1328
01:04:10,520 --> 01:04:13,120
Speaker 1: waste possession having it in their own final third or

1329
01:04:13,400 --> 01:04:16,360
Speaker 1: you know, they're gonna push forward consistently on both ends here.

1330
01:04:16,360 --> 01:04:18,000
Speaker 1: So over two and a half, I think it's a

1331
01:04:18,040 --> 01:04:19,880
Speaker 1: little bit low here.

1332
01:04:20,080 --> 01:04:23,160
Speaker 2: All right, that does it for the midweek fixtures. You

1333
01:04:23,240 --> 01:04:25,840
Speaker 2: will of course hear back from us again on Thursdays

1334
01:04:25,840 --> 01:04:31,000
Speaker 2: we ProView another weekend in the Premier League and beyond,

1335
01:04:31,280 --> 01:04:33,880
Speaker 2: and then we'll hear from us again on the following

1336
01:04:33,920 --> 01:04:37,640
Speaker 2: Monday to wrap up the group stages of the Champions

1337
01:04:37,720 --> 01:04:40,960
Speaker 2: League as well. For Anthony Debundo and b J Kuneham'm

1338
01:04:40,960 --> 01:04:42,680
Speaker 2: Michael Leebap. Thank you for listening to one or goal.

1339
01:04:43,000 --> 01:04:44,959
Speaker 2: Thank you to our sponsors Bet three six five because

1340
01:04:45,000 --> 01:04:47,800
Speaker 2: there a layup, and thank you to our hard working,

1341
01:04:47,800 --> 01:04:50,680
Speaker 2: industrious producer Noah. On the back end. We will see

1342
01:04:50,720 --> 01:04:51,840
Speaker 2: you all again in a few days.

1343
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:04,680
Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone

1344
01:05:04,720 --> 01:05:07,680
Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem, help is available

1345
01:05:07,760 --> 01:05:10,280
Speaker 1: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler