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Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome into the cycle. I am Ryan Warmley,

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Speaker 1: joined by Mike Mayer. As always, it is our weekly

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Speaker 1: fantasy baseball podcast here on the Fantasy Pros podcast network.

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Speaker 1: I am really excited because we got.

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Speaker 2: The Jackson Holiday debut.

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Speaker 1: We will be talking much more about Jackson Holiday later

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Speaker 1: on in the show with Chris Welsh, who was kind

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Speaker 1: enough to join the show. We actually spoke with him

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Speaker 1: yesterday to let everybody know we were recording this on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: April eleventh. We spoke with him on the tenth before

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Speaker 1: Holiday's debut, but you know, kind of in the wake

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Speaker 1: of the announcement that he would be making his debut,

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Speaker 1: so we did. We're not aware of what his first

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Speaker 1: game looked like when we talked with Welsh, but we

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Speaker 1: did a lot of big picture stuff about what this

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Speaker 1: means for the Orioles, for fantasy, for everything, so be

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Speaker 1: sure to check that out.

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Speaker 2: Really good conversation with Welch later in the show.

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Speaker 1: But I am still buzzing even though he went hitless,

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Speaker 1: because Jackson Holiday is now an oriole So mayor thank

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Speaker 1: you for bearing with my excitement with this promotion.

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Speaker 3: No problem. Are you at all concerned that he can't catch.

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Speaker 2: He's new to the position of second base, and.

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Speaker 1: That ball that you're referred to should have been called

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Speaker 1: an outfielder should have called him off. So I'm going

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Speaker 1: to give him a pass on as a twenty year

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Speaker 1: old kid in making his debut at Fenway Park. So

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Speaker 1: we'll go ahead and be kinda Jackson there. For everybody listening,

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Speaker 1: I do want to remind them that if they like

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Speaker 1: this content, the best free way to show their support

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Speaker 1: and encourage more content like this is to leave a

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Speaker 1: positive review at fantasypros dot com slash MLB review. And

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Speaker 1: if when leaving your review, even if it's not a

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Speaker 1: full five stars, if you ask a question in your review,

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Speaker 1: Mayor and I will be sure to answer it on

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Speaker 1: next week's episode. That is a great way to make

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Speaker 1: sure that any specific questions to your team and roster

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Speaker 1: and league can get answered on the show. We will

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Speaker 1: happily do that if it's left in a review. Let's

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Speaker 1: go into rounding the bases. We're going to start with

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Speaker 1: the conversation that really dominated the last week and largely

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Speaker 1: the early part of the season, and that's pitcher injuries.

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Speaker 1: I mean, just in the last week, I don't know

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Speaker 1: the exact dates and all these, but I believe this

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Speaker 1: is all since we last recorded. We had the Spencer

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Speaker 1: Stryder injury, we had Shane Bieber, we had Franber Valdez

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Speaker 1: on the fifteen day, il Nick Pavetta not even to

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Speaker 1: mention the preseason guys like what we saw with Garrett

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Speaker 1: Cole and spring training, Kyle Bradish, you know, still on

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Speaker 1: a rehab. These are like fantasy aces to varying degrees,

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Speaker 1: and it doesn't seem like it's slowing down. So my

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Speaker 1: first question, really, Freemayor, is are you among the group

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Speaker 1: that says this is a result of the pitch clock.

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Speaker 1: Are you among the group that says this has really

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Speaker 1: just been going on for like the last decade and

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Speaker 1: it's just yet another year.

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Speaker 2: Is it a fluke?

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Speaker 1: I mean, like from the larger perspective, before we get

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Speaker 1: into these individual arms, what is your takeaway from just

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Speaker 1: this just gluttony of pitcher injuries.

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Speaker 3: Well, first off, we also Josiah Gree you know, yeah,

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Speaker 3: he's the same I.

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Speaker 2: Was gonna ask.

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Speaker 1: I was like, I was writing down the names and

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Speaker 1: I'm sure I'm gonna forget some because there's too many

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Speaker 1: of them.

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Speaker 2: Yes, Gray is another one.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, no disrespect to Jonziah Gray for forgetting him.

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Speaker 3: I'm not I know, like the early.

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Speaker 4: Like outrage was the pitchclock stuff. I'm especially from like

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Speaker 4: the Blairers Union. I'm not a pitchclock is the problem. Guy.

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Speaker 4: They weren't even using the full like limit of the

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Speaker 4: pitchclock last season. I'm sure it's not helping an already

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Speaker 4: existing problem. I'm also not of the mindset that like

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Speaker 4: this has been going on forever, even though some of

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Speaker 4: the numbers do kind of indicate that, like they're you know,

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Speaker 4: it's been trending like this over the last ten years.

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Speaker 4: I think it's getting worse, and I think it's what

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Speaker 4: a lot of people have already said. It's the max

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Speaker 4: effort stuff, just like max effort all the time. With

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Speaker 4: like Shane Bieber, he was like consciously trying to improve

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Speaker 4: his velocity this season and then boom, He's hurt. And

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Speaker 4: it seemed like he kind of got hurt like out

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Speaker 4: of nowhere. But he said like through his first two

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Speaker 4: starts he was like pitching through pain, and it was

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Speaker 4: after like an offseason program where he was like consciously

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Speaker 4: working on lcity and then boom, hurt.

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Speaker 3: I think Nick Pavetta did did something similar. There was

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Speaker 3: quotes right after he got hurt, and it sounds like

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Speaker 3: his injury like fingers crossed might not be that bad,

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Speaker 3: it might be more like precautionary, but like he had

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Speaker 3: the same thing where he you know, he started working

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Speaker 3: out earlier this offseason and started focusing on like pushing

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Speaker 3: He even there was even a quote where he said

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Speaker 3: something like, I'm going to push myself further. I push

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Speaker 3: my body further. And then of course he's hurt too.

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Speaker 3: So I really think that's a big part of it.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure like everything is adding up to what we're seeing, but.

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Speaker 2: The state of pitching, you know, as a whole.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, I tend to agree with you

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Speaker 1: that it's not like a direct correlation based on the

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Speaker 1: pitch clock or anything like that. You know, there's been

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Speaker 1: a lot of talk about, you know, how this goes

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Speaker 1: back to youth baseball, and you know, the the max

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Speaker 1: effort stuff that you're referring to is starting at younger

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Speaker 1: and younger ages. As you know, kids try to build

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Speaker 1: up their velocity.

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Speaker 2: You know, in high school, even even younger in some case.

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Speaker 1: I mean it's I can remember playing little league growing up,

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Speaker 1: and I wasn't really a pitcher, but you know, everybody

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Speaker 1: would kind of get their chance to throw an inning

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Speaker 1: here or there, you know, in just little league whatever,

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Speaker 1: and we were like not allowed to throw curveballs or

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Speaker 1: anything other than essentially a fastball because it was like,

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Speaker 1: you're just like, we can't risk it. And this was

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Speaker 1: like not as a seven year old, this is as

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Speaker 1: like a you know, thirteen year old that they are

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Speaker 1: league was like you're not, You're actually not allowed.

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Speaker 2: Well, like we will call it a ball no matter

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Speaker 2: what if you throw something like that.

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Speaker 1: So like it is something that has become more and

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Speaker 1: more prevalent. Obviously, you know, I'm not going to sit

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Speaker 1: here and claim to be like a doctor or anything

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Speaker 1: like that, but I think that's that certainly seems to

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Speaker 1: me like the most likely cause the state of pitching,

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Speaker 1: you know, as a whole.

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Speaker 2: When you look at the guys that are currently healthy.

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Speaker 1: I mean, how many how many aces are there right

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Speaker 1: now where it's like you just you know what, you're

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Speaker 1: getting no doubt about it, Like like I'm not talking

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Speaker 1: about guys that you're technically ranking like SP nine or.

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Speaker 2: But like the actual like true.

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Speaker 1: You know, in your mind's eye, fantasy ace it's like

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Speaker 1: Corburn Burns, Zach Wheeler, and then like how many other

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Speaker 1: names are even on that list?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, it's It's funny you say that too, because

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Speaker 4: I was working this week on our and you can

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Speaker 4: see it on the site now, on our Fantasy Baseball

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Speaker 4: player trade chart, and I was actually talking with our

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Speaker 4: dev and our data team about the values and how

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Speaker 4: they're adjusted. And there's there's some logic in there, you know,

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Speaker 4: there's a lot that goes into it's very complicated, very

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Speaker 4: much over my head that I was talking to them

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Speaker 4: about the logic because someone like Corburn Burns, I think

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Speaker 4: when we first ran the values and everything, he was

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Speaker 4: kind of sitting at like twentieth overall, and I was

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Speaker 4: really struggling with like, should he be higher because he's

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Speaker 4: like the last standing ace or should he be lower

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Speaker 4: because all pitchers are inherently dangerous now? And I wasn't

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Speaker 4: really sure which way it should go.

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Speaker 1: We kind of touch this a little in the conversation

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Speaker 1: with Welsh when talking about the trade value for an

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Speaker 1: elite prospect like Jackson Holiday.

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Speaker 2: But but I'll.

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Speaker 1: Make the same comparison now that we dive into a

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Speaker 1: little bit later. It's like it's like running backs in football,

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Speaker 1: where in redraft maybe that's it might be the most

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Speaker 1: valuable position you can be good at, but in dynasty,

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Speaker 1: like there's just so much risk long term. So what

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Speaker 1: do you do with a guy like Spencer Strider in

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Speaker 1: a dynasty format? I mean, obviously he drops, but this

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Speaker 1: was the clear number one pitcher in baseball, both like

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Speaker 1: real baseball and fantasy and now this long term injury

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Speaker 1: and a you don't you don't you never know how

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Speaker 1: guys are gonna recover, like even settings, even setting aside

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Speaker 1: the uncertainty of how well they recover, and.

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Speaker 3: This is a pretty good one. This is his second time,

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Speaker 3: and it's.

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Speaker 2: A great point.

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Speaker 1: It's not the first time he's gone through this, but

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Speaker 1: even setting that aside, just the delay in having him

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Speaker 1: for a year plus, I mean, like, how do you

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Speaker 1: evaluate not just you know, some Joe Schmoe gets hurt,

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Speaker 1: like like you know, jaziagree is not a Joshma. I'm

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Speaker 1: just sasing because I forgot to say earlier, not even

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Speaker 1: setting you know, a good picture, but an elite guy

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Speaker 1: who's now going through this major injury, how are you

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Speaker 1: evaluating him in a long term format.

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Speaker 4: I really struggle with it with you know, especially with

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Speaker 4: my overall Dynasty strategy, and unfortunately, I feel like I've

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Speaker 4: been dealing with it more and more the last couple

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Speaker 4: of years. I don't have Spencer Strider in Dynasty. I

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Speaker 4: do have Shane Bieber in Dynasty, and so now I'm

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Speaker 4: kind of stuck there. I also have Walker Buehler, who's

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Speaker 4: still working his way back from injury. I have Tyler

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Speaker 4: Glass now in a league. I have Shane McClanahan. And

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Speaker 4: it's like, I almost like those top level pictures in

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Speaker 4: a lot of Dynasty formats are so valuable that you

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Speaker 4: almost can't sell low on them. You just have to

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Speaker 4: just either hope you have the eyel spots or you

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Speaker 4: just have to eat the dead roster spot for as

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Speaker 4: long as as long as you can, which is what

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Speaker 4: I've done. I haven't really sold low on any of

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Speaker 4: these guys. So I'm talking through this and giving myself

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Speaker 4: the answer of.

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Speaker 3: What I would do.

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Speaker 4: I guess what I would do is what I've been doing,

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Speaker 4: is I just eat it. I just you know, they're

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Speaker 4: so valuable and it would hurt too much to sell

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Speaker 4: low on them unless you're really in a win now

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Speaker 4: window and you need to In that case, I would

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Speaker 4: have to see what I can get for them. And

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Speaker 4: even but even now it's so early in the season,

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Speaker 4: you're probably not going to find a great trade partner

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Speaker 4: unless you find a team that came into the season

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Speaker 4: already kind of looking to like not compete and rebuild

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Speaker 4: for next year.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking right now at our rest of season rankings,

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Speaker 1: and I'm only looking at folks who have updated their

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Speaker 1: rankings within the last week. And it's Corner Burns that one,

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Speaker 1: Zach Wheeler to Luis Castillo, Pablo Lopez, Tyler glass Now,

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Speaker 1: Kevin Gosman, George Kirby is SP seven in the consensus rankings,

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Speaker 1: and he's been awful to start the season outside of

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Speaker 1: that first start. I mean, it's really like Zach Gallon, Yamamoto,

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Speaker 1: Scoo Ball, I mean, it's really like even the guys

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Speaker 1: who haven't, like glass Now just had a fourteen strikeout start,

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Speaker 1: like like obviously a ton of talent, like a guy

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Speaker 1: that we were like truly after Burns and Wheeler, there's

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Speaker 1: nobody that I'm like, I feel really really good about

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Speaker 1: this person being my best pitcher on my roster. It's

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Speaker 1: a lot of guys where it's like I'm gonna feel

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Speaker 1: excellent if they're my sp two. But like just emotionally,

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Speaker 1: I'm like, I don't look at these names and think, oh,

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Speaker 1: George Kirby, I have one of the best starting pitcher

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Speaker 1: ones that anybody could have in my league. And obviously

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Speaker 1: there is a consensus reking, so different people might evaluate

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Speaker 1: these guys differently, but it's really just like remarkable before

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Speaker 1: we move on, like, do you have any other kind

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Speaker 1: of larger takeaways just from the state of pitching in

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Speaker 1: general or anything on any of these specific guys. I mean,

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Speaker 1: not all of them are out, you know, for the

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Speaker 1: season necessarily got like Framber, you know, right is fifteen

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Speaker 1: day il Kyle bradish I mentioned is like, you know,

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Speaker 1: something that happened in spring training or really before spring

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Speaker 1: training is making rehab starts.

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Speaker 2: Now there's still some uncertainly around Garrett Cole.

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Speaker 1: So these guys that are not out for the whole season,

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Speaker 1: do you expect them to step back into ace like

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Speaker 1: roles once they're back on the bumps.

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Speaker 4: So one thing answering that from a fantasy perspective, One

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Speaker 4: thing I've I've thought lot about over the last few

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Speaker 4: days is one two things. One for me is this

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Speaker 4: gonna like, am I going to adjust my fantasy draft

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Speaker 4: strategy going forward? And two is everybody going to adjust

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Speaker 4: their fantasy draft strategy going forward? Because I felt like

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Speaker 4: this year, for whatever reason, I kind of wanted maybe

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Speaker 4: it was just a pitching landscape. I liked the top,

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Speaker 4: the top, top tier of pitching, and I didn't love

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Speaker 4: that kind of like second and third tier of pitching.

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Speaker 4: But I did like that fourth tier of and like

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Speaker 4: getting into like the you know, the sp like twenty

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Speaker 4: to forty range and even after that. So I founded

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Speaker 4: in a lot of myself in a lot of drafts,

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Speaker 4: like trying to draft one of those aces early, waiting

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Speaker 4: for four or five rounds and then hitting three or

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Speaker 4: four more. And I almost wonder like, am I ever

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Speaker 4: going to do that again? Or am I going to

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Speaker 4: do that the next few years? Is it worth a

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Speaker 4: first round pick on someone on an ACE? Just given

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Speaker 4: the injuries we've seen, And I don't know, I feel

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Speaker 4: like I'm probably gonna go hitting heavy next season just

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Speaker 4: as a reactionary move.

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Speaker 1: I feel like I remember, like when I was first

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Speaker 1: getting into fantasy baseball in high school, and like the

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Speaker 1: general consensus that I was reading at the time, and

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Speaker 1: you know, we would always take a spring break trip

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Speaker 1: and in the airport that would be when I would

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Speaker 1: go buy the Fantasy Baseball magazine. I'd buy like all

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Speaker 1: every single version that they had in the airport.

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Speaker 2: Now that would just be what I did on the plane.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I remember the kind of strategy consensus

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Speaker 1: at the time was that you could wait on pitching

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Speaker 1: because there were pictures that would pop up late and

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Speaker 1: it wasn't even an injury thing. It was just like

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Speaker 1: it was better to go hitting early and wait on pitching.

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Speaker 1: And then I feel like, as it has become harder

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Speaker 1: to have these true workhorse aces, as you know, the

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Speaker 1: number of innings these guys throws goes down and as

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Speaker 1: strikeouts go up, so you need them to compete, and

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Speaker 1: you know, I feel like it's becoming quite cyclical. And

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Speaker 1: you're right, it might kind of start to circle back

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Speaker 1: the old direction where you do wait, but not because

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Speaker 1: you can just find anybody, but because it's just too risky.

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Speaker 1: I mean, certainly in a dynasty or keeper format, I

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Speaker 1: just don't know how you could possibly value any pitcher

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Speaker 1: on the same level as the elite hitters, even even

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Speaker 1: in format I play in a very deep keeper league

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Speaker 1: with you know, it's head to head points, and you

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Speaker 1: it's better to be good at pitching than to be

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Speaker 1: good at hitting in that league, just the way the

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Speaker 1: scoring is. But the best teams are the ones that

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Speaker 1: have a Kunya and Bobby Waitt and Rookie Betts and

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Speaker 1: you know, Naron Judge the year he goes off, because

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Speaker 1: there's just a certainty there and it's just so hard

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Speaker 1: to know you're year, uh, you know, who's gonna actually

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Speaker 1: stay healthy on the mound. Let's go to the speaking of,

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Speaker 1: you know, being injured from a pitching perspective. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: a little bit more about Otani and it's not actually

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Speaker 1: about his performance, but just kind of the latest roundup

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Speaker 1: we had earlier today, some news about just some of

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Speaker 1: the numbers that have gone on with his trans later

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Speaker 1: who actually is you know, officially being charged with you know,

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Speaker 1: theft of more than sixteen million dollars, so like four

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Speaker 1: times what had.

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Speaker 2: Been initially been thrown out as a number.

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Speaker 1: I'll let you just kind of run through some of

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Speaker 1: these some of these headlines here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So we're recording this on Thursday afternoon, about an

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Speaker 4: hour or two after the latest news came out with

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Speaker 4: with Otani's interpreter and kind of the deal he's working with.

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Speaker 4: He's basically admitting to everything, which you can get into

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Speaker 4: your own conspiracy theories of whether or not he's taken

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Speaker 4: the fall. It certainly looks like he's extremely guilty of

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Speaker 4: some really bad things in addition to being an atrocious

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Speaker 4: sports better. But it said he made over nineteen thousand bets.

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Speaker 4: He bet nearly one hundred and eighty three million dollars,

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Speaker 4: lost one hundred and forty two mi million dollars for

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Speaker 4: a net loss of over forty million dollars. Originally, when

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Speaker 4: it came out, it said he stole about four and

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Speaker 4: a half million from Otani, and everyone was like, how

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Speaker 4: is it possible that you could not notice this? It

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Speaker 4: turns out he stole more than sixteen million dollars from

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Speaker 4: Otani and went as far as to impersonate Otani to

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Speaker 4: bank employees turn off like notifications for Otani's bank accounts,

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Speaker 4: so he wasn't even being notified of like transactions, and

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Speaker 4: like Mike might, this is like a dumb question that

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Speaker 4: I just put out there on Twitter because I'm trying

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Speaker 4: to like wrap my head around it. Because you see

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Speaker 4: the net loss of over forty million dollars and it

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Speaker 4: says he stole more than sixteen million dollars. And I'm

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Speaker 4: sure there's like some math that can account for this.

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Speaker 4: But when I see a net loss of forty million

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Speaker 4: dollars and you stole twenty or stole sixteen million dollars,

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Speaker 4: I feel like twenty four million dollars is math, and

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Speaker 4: where does that come from?

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Speaker 1: Maybe the twenty four million Otani actually did like load

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Speaker 1: him to help out a thread, and then he paid.

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Speaker 2: It was like I need more. I don't know.

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Speaker 4: Some people have said, like, that's like what he reinvested,

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Speaker 4: but I feel like the net loss is already accounting

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Speaker 4: for what you've reinvested.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say.

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Speaker 3: I'm not a math person, so I could if he.

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Speaker 2: Really wanted to track how this stuff works.

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Speaker 1: I hope he was sinking his bets with the betting

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Speaker 1: pros app and maybe if he was, he might have

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Speaker 1: learned some of his trends and stopped buying the sports

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Speaker 1: that we're doing so well. So let that be a

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Speaker 1: lesson everybody. Download the betting pros app and you won't

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Speaker 1: lose forty million dollars.

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Speaker 3: Great point.

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Speaker 4: It also is worth noting out that he still despite

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Speaker 4: nineteen thousand bets zero bets on baseball that they've shown,

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Speaker 4: which is wild.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really like, I wonder if that part is

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Speaker 2: just hidden.

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Speaker 1: I mean it, Yeah, it seems really hard to me

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Speaker 1: that you could you could be the type of person

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Speaker 1: who could lose tens of millions of dollars of not

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Speaker 1: even your own money, make that many bets and not

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Speaker 1: bet on this sport at which you have the best intel, Like,

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Speaker 1: because I just I just don't think you can do

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Speaker 1: these numbers and not be like a degenerate, which sometimes

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Speaker 1: people say is like a very friendly turn. And by

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Speaker 1: the way, I'm kind of like laughing through all this,

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Speaker 1: it's just because of how crazy these numbers are.

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Speaker 2: And I'm serard.

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Speaker 1: Obviously this is like a deep betrayal of Otani by

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Speaker 1: a close friend that he trusted. Like it's not funny

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Speaker 1: that a crime was committed, a serious, serious crime, but it's.

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Speaker 4: Also not funny in the sense that this is more

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Speaker 4: than like degenerate and like that this is an addiction.

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Speaker 3: Yes, someone who was addicted.

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Speaker 1: Well, and that's my point is, if you're addicted, how

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Speaker 1: are you not betting on baseball? Like I think I

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Speaker 1: saw one of the texts that came out was, oh,

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Speaker 1: he you know he was betting on soccer because it's

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Speaker 1: on all the time. Baseball is on every day for

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Speaker 1: six months and you're around it. And I mean, I

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Speaker 1: I'm sure the investigation will bring out as much truth

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Speaker 1: as it can. It is hard for me to wrap

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Speaker 1: my head around somebody having this much of an addiction,

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Speaker 1: which is which is a serious there's like, you know,

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Speaker 1: a chemical component in your brain to addiction. I'm not

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Speaker 1: like trying to dump on the guy. It's really hard

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Speaker 1: for me to imagine having this level of an addiction

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Speaker 1: and yet still having the wherewithal to say, I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to bet on baseball because I have my limits.

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Speaker 1: It seems like there are no limits when you're losing

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Speaker 1: literally tens of millions of dollars of not your own money.

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Speaker 1: But ultimately from the fantasy perspective, it's probably a good

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Speaker 1: thing for Otani because it certainly seems to clear up

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Speaker 1: more so that yes, this was actually a betrayal and

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Speaker 1: not somebody taking the fall.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it certainly looks like everything is coming out to

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Speaker 4: point him as like an absolute victim. There's even like

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Speaker 4: one message that's been because this stuff is like still

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Speaker 4: coming out and people are pouring through the pages and

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Speaker 4: pages of documents from this investigation that are being made public.

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Speaker 4: And one of the text messages is from the the

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Speaker 4: bookmaker who ran the you know, this illegal operation, couldn't

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Speaker 4: get in touch with Miserhara, the interpreter, and was like

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Speaker 4: stock him and he's like, hey, I see Otani walking

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Speaker 4: his dog right now. I'm going to go go up

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Speaker 4: to him and like talk to him about this because

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Speaker 4: you won't call me back.

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Speaker 3: Like they're at level of how far this goes is insane.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And there was that other text that was like

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Speaker 1: the bookie.

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Speaker 2: One of them was.

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Speaker 1: Something along the lines of like, I know you didn't

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Speaker 1: steal it technically, but I'm like seeing the reports and

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Speaker 1: he goes he goes, well, technically I did steal it.

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Speaker 2: Oh my gosh.

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Speaker 1: Again just laughing because of the absurdity, not because of

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Speaker 1: the crime itself or because of the addiction itself, which

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Speaker 1: which is a sickness.

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Speaker 2: Anything else quickly on the Otani stuff or.

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Speaker 3: No, I think we can keep moving.

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Speaker 4: The good news is it's from a fantasy perspective, it

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Speaker 4: seems like he's going to be in the clay. It's

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Speaker 4: gonna be no suspension this year or next year as

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Speaker 4: far as we know based on the latest information.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to do a section here in round

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Speaker 1: of the basis on some of the struggling stars in baseball.

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Speaker 2: And I listed five names here.

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Speaker 1: If there's any names that you thought were worthy of

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Speaker 1: mentioning in addition to this, you know that's fine. I'll

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Speaker 1: start with the biggest one, which is Ronald Acunya. It's

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Speaker 1: been noted in a few places that he does not

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Speaker 1: have a barrel this season on stat cast. You know,

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Speaker 1: his barrel percentage the last several years thirteen percent, fifteen percent,

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Speaker 1: twenty twelve cent, fifty percent, zero percent. This year literally

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Speaker 1: does not have one. It's still early, which I'll say

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Speaker 1: with all of these, but you know, that's kind of

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Speaker 1: why I want to address to what degree are we

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Speaker 1: worried about any of these guys. You know, the expected

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Speaker 1: slugging percentage way way way way down. I mean last

439
00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:33,719
Speaker 1: year was six sixty. This year so far it's two

440
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 1: forty nine. Expected batting average last year three fifty seven

441
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 1: this year to ten. You know, the hard hit rate

442
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:42,560
Speaker 1: is way down. The strikeout rate is up, second highest

443
00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 1: of his career, walk rate also second highest of his career.

444
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,480
Speaker 1: But even just looking like on his stat cast page,

445
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 1: it's a lot of blue and Akuni is the type

446
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:55,040
Speaker 1: of guy where it's mostly red. So again we're now,

447
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,439
Speaker 1: you know, seven, this is seven seasons into his career,

448
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 1: obviously coming off one of the great eight fantasy seasons

449
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:04,239
Speaker 1: of all time. You know, consent, You've never seen a

450
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,439
Speaker 1: more consensus number one overall pick in drafts than Acuna was.

451
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 2: This year.

452
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:11,040
Speaker 1: He was setting records in salary cap formats or how

453
00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:14,159
Speaker 1: much he was going for. To what degree And the

454
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:15,719
Speaker 1: answer is obviously not going to be a hundred out

455
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 1: of one hundred, But to what degree are you concerned about? Hey,

456
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,439
Speaker 1: I invested a lot into Acunya and this is what

457
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 1: I'm getting so.

458
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:26,879
Speaker 4: Far, I'm not that concerned, you know, not to go

459
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 4: back to like a previous conversation where we said, like,

460
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,080
Speaker 4: you know, the concern level is not zero, but it's

461
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 4: it's close to zero, just just because of how early

462
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 4: it is and because of the track record. It's different

463
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 4: when you're talking about you know, maybe a second year

464
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 4: player or like someone who just recently broke out, but

465
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,119
Speaker 4: we've seen what he can be.

466
00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:46,240
Speaker 3: And you know, like even even before last year's absolutely

467
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 3: absurd season in twenty nineteen, he hit forty one home

468
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,200
Speaker 3: runs and in other years. In twenty twenty one, even

469
00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 3: in only eighty two games, he hit twenty four home runs,

470
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 3: and he has already stolen four bases, so he's at

471
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 3: least giving you some stolen bases. The bad ball numbers

472
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:04,399
Speaker 3: are are not good, they look really bad, but you

473
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 3: just have to think he's just you know, a level

474
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 3: of player who's going to turn it around, especially as

475
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,200
Speaker 3: like you know, you don't want to like be be cliche,

476
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 3: but like you know, it's still very early in April,

477
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 3: the weather's cold in all these places, like it's going

478
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 3: to start heating up, and he just you know, there's

479
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 3: there's no way you're like selling low on a on Acunya,

480
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 3: or there's no there's no way you're gonna AIBLD to

481
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:27,640
Speaker 3: buy a low on Acunya just because of what you said.

482
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,200
Speaker 3: Like he was the consensus number one overall pick, except

483
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 3: in some you know, certain like high stakes leagues where

484
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 3: the other one number one overall pick was Spencer Strider

485
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 3: and at that point be happy you took Acunya and

486
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 3: at Spencer Strider at this point, so not very concerned,

487
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 3: but the numbers are bad enough that it, you know,

488
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:48,640
Speaker 3: it catches your eye.

489
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,879
Speaker 1: Would you trade like, maybe not Mookie because he started

490
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,360
Speaker 1: off so strong, but like a like a Bobby Wit

491
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,919
Speaker 1: for Acunya if you had the opportunity to do so,

492
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 1: where it's like you're not it doesn't like you're technically

493
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:04,120
Speaker 1: buying low relative to what draft compensation was, but like

494
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 1: you're still giving up an elite first round asset. Would

495
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 1: you do that and say, I still believe Acuna is

496
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 1: going to be the number one player in fantasy going forward?

497
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 3: Would I give up Acuna or acquire.

498
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,920
Speaker 1: Would you acquire a Kunya by giving up a guy

499
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 1: that you drafted like fifth overall who's having a good

500
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 1: start to the season, like a Wit or a Mookie.

501
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:25,920
Speaker 4: I feel like I would. Yeah, I feel like I would.

502
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 4: I would still take the swing on a Kunya's ceiling.

503
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:31,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wish, I wish it was a bit more

504
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,160
Speaker 1: bad luck, but I had a bald data is really

505
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 1: bad lasting on a Cunya quickly because there's a couple

506
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,159
Speaker 1: other names. Want to get to any concerns at all

507
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,679
Speaker 1: about like just like lingering effects from he was, you know,

508
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 1: had some injury question marks in spring training a bit.

509
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 1: Is any concern that that might be what's causing this.

510
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:49,880
Speaker 4: I don't love that, but the fact that he's running

511
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:51,679
Speaker 4: makes me feel a little bit better about that.

512
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:53,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair.

513
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 1: I want to ask about another very talented outfielder, Julugo Rodriguez.

514
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 2: Has It's been abysmal. He's below the Mendoza lines.

515
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:05,199
Speaker 1: Batting average is one ninety six, zero home runs so

516
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 1: far this season. He's got two barrels so far, for

517
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 1: whatever that's worth. And it's just again like a lot

518
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 1: of a lot of blue on a stat cast page.

519
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 1: And the battleball data is not good. Hard hit percentage

520
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 1: is very low. It was over fifty percent the last

521
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 1: two seasons. It's at thirty nine percent right now. Strikeout

522
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 1: rate is way up, walk rate slightly down. I mean

523
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 1: somebody who is just really really struggling right now.

524
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:32,120
Speaker 2: Yeah.

525
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 4: The only thing that kind of gives me hope there

526
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 4: is we saw a lot of similar things last year.

527
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:37,879
Speaker 4: He got off to a slow start last year, and

528
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 4: he's that's kind of been his thing as like getting

529
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 4: off to a slow start. And I know I rostered

530
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:45,159
Speaker 4: him a bunch last year, and I actually, despite how

531
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:46,880
Speaker 4: well I did in the rankings, I think I had

532
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,640
Speaker 4: him possibly as my number one consensus player ranked last

533
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 4: year and not any but despite that, still finished very accurately.

534
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 4: But yeah, I did have him in a lot of plays,

535
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 4: So I paid a lot attention to how slow he

536
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 4: started last season. And it wasn't this bad that it

537
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 4: wasn't good. And he's not someone who has the same

538
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 4: kind of track record as Akunya, and but he's also

539
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 4: a lot younger and we've seen two really good seasons

540
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 4: from him, and he's kind of had these slow starts

541
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,360
Speaker 4: before it, So like kind of same answer, I'm I'm

542
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 4: fully expecting him to turn it around and you know,

543
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 4: just have this be like a slow start.

544
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:26,440
Speaker 1: Would you rather pay a large amount to acquire Julio

545
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 1: or trade him for what a large amount? Like not

546
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 1: not by low, not you know, not sell low. Would

547
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:36,199
Speaker 1: you rather like I would I don't want to say

548
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:37,920
Speaker 1: by high because he's not playing well, but would you

549
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 1: rather pay a fair like premium price for him or

550
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 1: sell him for a fair premium price right now.

551
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 3: I'd rather acquire him right now.

552
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 2: I think that's fair.

553
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,119
Speaker 1: Another guy who started off slow last year and it's

554
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 1: starting off slow this year is Gunnard Henderson. He's hitting

555
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 1: two thirty three on base percentage just a little over

556
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 1: three hundred. He is running, he's got three steals, and

557
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 1: he has two homers, so he's giving you some up there.

558
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 1: He does have a high hard hit rate. We don't

559
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 1: even spend a lot of time on him. I watch

560
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: a lot of ools baseball. He is hitting the ball

561
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 1: very hard into a lot of gloves. He had the

562
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 1: hardest hit ball in the game yesterday before Westburg hit

563
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 1: the three run homer and it just went right to

564
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 1: the second basement. I mean, I feel like he's getting unlucky.

565
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 1: But his launch angle is not like lower than it

566
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 1: was last year. In fact, it's higher than it was

567
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 1: last year. A lot of the badball data is actually

568
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 1: fairly good. I brought him up because he started slow

569
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 1: last year and because because the actual rate stats are

570
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 1: quite bad right now. Maybe you disagree, but I think

571
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:33,959
Speaker 1: this is a case of bad luck and it's going

572
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 1: to turn around.

573
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say I have, you know, the same

574
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:39,239
Speaker 4: almost kind of the same answer. I rostered a lot

575
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 4: of Gunner Henderson last year. I remember the slow start

576
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 4: very well because of what it did to me in

577
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 4: some renal leagues. But like you said, he's even less

578
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 4: concerning because there aren't any bad ball concerns there. His

579
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 4: hard hit rate is almost fifty percent almost fifty percent,

580
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 4: and he's hitting.

581
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 3: Right at the top of that lineup, the very good lineup.

582
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 4: My only concern would be if he starts us for

583
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 4: a long period of time, they have no reason to

584
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 4: keep him at the top of the lineup, even though

585
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 4: I think they will. But it's like if he goes

586
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 4: into like a prolong slump and you know, someone like

587
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 4: Jackson Holliday gets you know, crazy hot, they can flip

588
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:13,360
Speaker 4: them in the order, but you can kind of say

589
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:13,920
Speaker 4: that about anyone.

590
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 3: So I wouldn't be that concerned.

591
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: And also I don't think they would flip them like

592
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 1: I think if they were to move like let's say

593
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,439
Speaker 1: Holiday or in the Ludoff spot, they're moving Gunner to

594
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 1: like three or four. They're not going to move him

595
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 1: to like eight or nine. So I have no concerns

596
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 1: about the lineup or situation that he'll be in either

597
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 1: Pete Alonzo obviously, you know, historically a power hitter, the

598
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:35,120
Speaker 1: second percentage four thirty eight.

599
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:37,920
Speaker 2: This season, you know, he's hitting two twenty nine.

600
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 1: He does have three home runs, some blue, some red

601
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: on the stat cast page, which is kind of just

602
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 1: an easy, you know, catch all to use the colors,

603
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 1: you know, Kunya, it's all blue Alonzo, you know, sweet

604
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 1: spot percentage, barrel rate are fairly good. The rest is

605
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,679
Speaker 1: pretty bad. Twelve percentile and hard hit rate which is

606
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,439
Speaker 1: obviously like pretty eye pop at just twenty five percent

607
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 1: compared to over forty percent every other year of his career.

608
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 1: He's also striking out a bit at a higher rate

609
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 1: than than typically.

610
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 2: But any thoughts on Alonso, I feel like this is just.

611
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 4: Kind of who he is. You're going to get, you know,

612
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,159
Speaker 4: streaks out of him. And I remember talking to someone

613
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 4: right before the start of the season in our discord

614
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,919
Speaker 4: fantaspros dot com slash chat, which you should join and

615
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 4: talk with us, and that was more about like whether

616
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 4: or not I was willing to pay his price on

617
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 4: draft day, and in most cases I wasn't, just because

618
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 4: like the power numbers are obviously insane. He hit forty

619
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 4: six on runs last year forur to the year before,

620
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 4: but as in twenty twenty two, they came with the

621
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 4: two seventy one batting average. Last year came with a

622
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 4: two seventeen batting average, and there was a really low

623
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 4: babit last year. But he's not really someone you can

624
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 4: pay attention to Babbitt just because of the power and

625
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 4: the you know, the launch angle and that stuff. But

626
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 4: there's always going to be like and we've seen like

627
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 4: throughout his career, like one year he batted two thirty

628
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:00,479
Speaker 4: one and you know that was a shortened and then

629
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 4: like he was around like two sixty and then now

630
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 4: he's last year was to seventeen.

631
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 3: I feel like you're just going to see what a

632
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 3: power hitter like he is.

633
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 4: Like the approach that he has, You're gonna see those

634
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 4: kind of like batting average kind of streaks, the.

635
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 3: Powers that was going to be there.

636
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 4: Like like you said, like even with like some some

637
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 4: kind of like un some bad of all data that's

638
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 4: not typical for him. He still already has three home

639
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 4: runs in eleven games and still is on pace for

640
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 4: you know, a ton of home runs. I just think

641
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 4: you're going to see some of this batted ball and

642
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 4: batting average fluctuation just because of who he.

643
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 2: Is last guy I wanted to hit on.

644
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 1: Here is somebody that you actually want to talk about

645
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 1: a little bit later as well. So just quickly, Francisco Lindor.

646
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 1: I mean he's he's batting one oh four, he has

647
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 1: five hits this season. His ops is four to oh two,

648
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 1: one home run, zero steals, so not giving you the

649
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 1: power speed combo. His strikeout rate is down, but that's

650
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 1: about the only number that looks good on his bat

651
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 1: a ball profile page. What are your thoughts on Lindor,

652
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 1: who I know you considered for an category.

653
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I was actually going to talk about Lindor

654
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 4: in our by Low segment, but I thought maybe it

655
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 4: was just too easy, and then you reminded me that

656
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 4: we were already talking about him in this segment, So

657
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 4: I just figured OU would talk about him here. But

658
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 4: he's definitely a bilow for me. He's another person we've

659
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 4: kind of seen start slow or go through an extended

660
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 4: slump slump before, and the numbers always kind of work out.

661
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 3: To be really good.

662
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 4: The other thing with some of his expected numbers is,

663
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 4: do you know who has the biggest difference between expected

664
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 4: batting average and current patting average.

665
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 2: I do not I'm gonna get one because that he.

666
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 3: Was it would be Francisco Lindor.

667
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 2: Oh oh, I was.

668
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 1: I assume you're going to say with somebody other than

669
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 1: Lindor and like lead into oh he's second or something.

670
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 2: Actually, I definitely way to.

671
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 3: Ruin my segment, but we can keep going.

672
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 4: So so, yeah, he has the biggest difference between expects.

673
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 4: His actual batting average on stack aass is point zero

674
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 4: eight nine and expected is two forty six, And that

675
00:30:57,560 --> 00:30:59,959
Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty seven point difference is the you know,

676
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 4: not that two forty six is great, but still that

677
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 4: difference is the biggest in all of baseball among qualifying hitters.

678
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 4: Same thing for Wolba one ninety two. Wolba has expected

679
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 4: Welba three twenty six, one hundred and forty four, one

680
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 4: hundred and thirty four point difference, biggest in baseball. And

681
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 4: I was gonna kind of ask you to guess the

682
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 4: difference in uh Or who had the biggest difference in

683
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 4: slugging versus expected slugging, and trick you because he has

684
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 4: the highest of batting average and ex Weloba, but he's

685
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 4: not the highest of expected slugging. The highest is actually

686
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 4: my boy ty France, so we can talk about him

687
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 4: later if you want. But he's in the top five

688
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 4: for that category as well. So all of these expected

689
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 4: numbers across the board, he's just massively kind of either

690
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 4: unlucky or just like has expected numbers that should be massively,

691
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 4: you know, enormously better. And I think you're going to

692
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 4: see those numbers level out and there are they're Unlike

693
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 4: Akunya and some of the other names you talked about,

694
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 4: there are people kind of panicking about Lindor so that

695
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 4: you can probably buy low in some leagues because I've

696
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 4: already seen people on this asking me like should I

697
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 4: sell Lindoor and the answers.

698
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 1: Let's go to the last storyline here in round in

699
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 1: the bases, just we had a couple of guys who

700
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 1: are kind of the opposite of what we just talked about,

701
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 1: who are doing better than expected. So I just earned

702
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 1: one hitter one picture just to hit in a couple

703
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 1: of kind of optim you know, maybe not optimistic, maybe

704
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 1: we feel pessimistic about these guys, but guys who have

705
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 1: kind of outperformed where they were being drafted. To start

706
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 1: here quickly, Mike Trout, I mean, obviously superstar been around forever,

707
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 1: has had injury problems as of late, which has led

708
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 1: to a lot of the counting SATs being down.

709
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 2: But like, we know who Mike Trout is.

710
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 1: We talked about kind of being surprised where he was

711
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 1: being drafted. I can distinctly remember you slacking me at

712
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 1: one point in like late February or early March, being like,

713
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 1: I'm in the middle of a draft and I couldn't

714
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 1: believe where, you know what round he was just taken in.

715
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 1: You know, this is Mike Trout, and he's certainly the

716
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 1: power it's been, you know, prevalent here to start the season,

717
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 1: you know, right at the top, you know, with the

718
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 1: league leaders hitting like moonshots, just absolutely like Titanic Blast.

719
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 1: Of course most of them have been solo shots, Thank

720
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 1: you to the Angels. But do you think that this

721
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 1: is like a return to form for Trout? He is running,

722
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 1: you know, a bit more than he has in recent years,

723
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 1: which is you know, particularly exciting to see. So is

724
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 1: this like is he like back back or is it like, oh,

725
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 1: a really nice start kind of some vintage Mike Trout here, So.

726
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 4: I think I thought of a lot about this, like,

727
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 4: you know, after I slacked here and then during draft

728
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 4: season of you know, I expect that his you know,

729
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 4: he's not going to be a first round pick anymore,

730
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 4: but I was trying. I was kind of thinking, like,

731
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 4: you know, why is he falling so far? And I

732
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 4: think there's two main concerns with him. One is the

733
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 4: obvious injury concerns because he's been banged up so so much,

734
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 4: and the other was that he just doesn't run anymore.

735
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 4: But one of those scenes to be answered in the

736
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 4: sense that he is running. He already has two stolen bases.

737
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 4: Not that two stolen bases is a ton, but the

738
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 4: fact that he already is running, and that his manager

739
00:33:57,520 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 4: has said that like he intends to run and let

740
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 4: his play is run. That means he's massively more valuable.

741
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 4: Not to continue using the word massively, but that means

742
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 4: he's a lot more valuable than he was being drafted.

743
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 4: And it's too late to buy on him because you know,

744
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:13,359
Speaker 4: he already has six home runs, despite five of them

745
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 4: being solo shots. He just hit a two run home

746
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 4: home run yesterday. But if he can stay healthy. And

747
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 4: that's you know, the biggest if there is in baseball

748
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 4: is if Mike Drout can say healthy. But if he

749
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 4: can and he can run, which the concern there is

750
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,359
Speaker 4: at running more probably increases his chances of being injured,

751
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 4: because I think that's part of the reason why I

752
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 4: stopp running in the first place. But I mean, he's

753
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 4: just you know, I actually put in, you know, to

754
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,280
Speaker 4: not to bring up betting pros again, but I actually

755
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:42,320
Speaker 4: put in a futures bet on him to win MVP yesterday.

756
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 2: Oh nice.

757
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 1: Also, what do you mean not to bring up betting

758
00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 1: pros again? We want people to hear about betting pros.

759
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 2: This is a good point. This is a good thing.

760
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 2: It's a nice plot.

761
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: The other name I wanted to talk about in this section,

762
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:56,360
Speaker 1: very briefly, is much less famous than Mike ut Cody Bradford,

763
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 1: who buddy of mine, you know, I played fantasy bass

764
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 1: with for me many years, texted me yesterday.

765
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 2: Is Cody Bradford the best pitcher in baseball? Now?

766
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,279
Speaker 1: Given all the other injuries, he may very well be.

767
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 1: Maybe he's the guy who should be right behine, of course,

768
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 1: he's a lot closer in baseball than he was a

769
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 1: week ago. Yes, yes, to give you some of the

770
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 1: stat lines of why my friend would be asking such

771
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,280
Speaker 1: a thing. You know, his first start of the season

772
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 1: five innings, two runs, you know, three hits, one walk,

773
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:27,760
Speaker 1: six strikeouts. But then he faced and that was against

774
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 1: the Cubs, and he was home against the Astros eight

775
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 1: and two thirds innings, two hits, one run, no walks,

776
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 1: just four strikeouts. And then against the Athletics last night,

777
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:41,800
Speaker 1: seven and two thirds, five hits, one run which was unearned,

778
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 1: one walk, and seven strikeouts. So a really excellent start

779
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,279
Speaker 1: to the twenty twenty four seasons for him. So far,

780
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:51,479
Speaker 1: that comes out to a one forty era, a zero

781
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,880
Speaker 1: point six to two whip. He's got seventeen strikeouts in

782
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:57,279
Speaker 1: nineteen and a third innings, and of course is three

783
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 1: to oher, which is already one win away from all

784
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 1: of last year's total.

785
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 2: So is Cody Bradford the best picture in baseball?

786
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:09,400
Speaker 3: Yes, no he's not. But I was looking.

787
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 4: I was, you know, we were talking about him a

788
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 4: little before the show, and I was researching him, and

789
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,399
Speaker 4: I was actually thinking about him for the last couple

790
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 4: of days because there's concern that he might new stick

791
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:21,840
Speaker 4: in the rotation because they're getting Michael Lorenzen back and

792
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:23,919
Speaker 4: then eventually they're going to get shares they're into ground back.

793
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 4: So for that reason, I was actually considering him as

794
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:30,320
Speaker 4: like a cell high candidate to talk about the fun

795
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 4: thing about him is that his expected stats really can't

796
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 4: seem to agree on what.

797
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:36,200
Speaker 3: You know.

798
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 4: Again, we're talking about a very small sample size, which

799
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 4: is why some of these expected numbers don't agree. So

800
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 4: his ERA is one point four, his FIP is two

801
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 4: point four to three, not that far off, you know,

802
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 4: about a run higher is.

803
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 3: What you would expect.

804
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:49,839
Speaker 4: His ex FIP is all the way up at four

805
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 4: point zero six, so way higher. His Sierra splits the

806
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 4: difference is about three point sixty three and is expected.

807
00:36:57,160 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 4: He RA is all the way back down at one

808
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 4: point nine too, So they're all over the board. They

809
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 4: have no idea what to expect. They could not disagree

810
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 4: more on his on his value. The one thing I'll

811
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 4: say about him just looking into like because when you

812
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 4: see kind of like pictures who haven't like broken out before,

813
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 4: you kind of see I want to look for like

814
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:15,880
Speaker 4: what's different, Like is there something we can point to

815
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 4: that's different. The one thing for him in addition to

816
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 4: just seeing you know, he's always had like very good control,

817
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 4: which is kind of how he's survived. He's throwing a

818
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,879
Speaker 4: curveball now, which you know he didn't really throw before,

819
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 4: and he's not really leaning on it a ton. He's

820
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 4: only throwing at fifteen percent of the time. But that's

821
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 4: another pitch that he's throwing that he hasn't really used

822
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 4: in the past. All of his other pitches are pretty

823
00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 4: much the same. He's not really using his cutter anymore,

824
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 4: but slider's the same. Curveballs or change up the same,

825
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 4: four seamer is the same. He really leans on his

826
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,320
Speaker 4: four steamer, which is interesting because he only throws it

827
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 4: about ninety miles an hour, so to throw that almost

828
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 4: fifty percent of the time doesn't seem like a recipe

829
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:55,799
Speaker 4: for success. But he's a cell high for me. But

830
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 4: there are really intriguing results so far. But you know,

831
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 4: there's there are some reasons to be concerned.

832
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 1: So sell high if he's on your roster, if he's

833
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 1: available on waivers, which he is in a good amount

834
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,319
Speaker 1: of places. It's not like he's available everywhere, but he

835
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 1: is available in spots. Is he a must add if

836
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 1: he's on the waiver wire, or is he a add

837
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 1: if you have a spot and want to take a flyer,

838
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:20,280
Speaker 1: but like you're not really expecting this to continue.

839
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:21,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would add him.

840
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 4: I think it's really league dependent, and definitely not in

841
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 4: a shallower like ten team league.

842
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 3: I think in twelve team leagues at.

843
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 4: This point, especially if they have deeper rosters, you almost

844
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:34,360
Speaker 4: need to roster him just to see, you know, just

845
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:38,400
Speaker 4: to see, because there's a chance he just has a

846
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 4: two ERA for the next two months. And even if,

847
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 4: even if he ends up losing his spot when some

848
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 4: of those other guys get back healthy, it's really valuable

849
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:48,439
Speaker 4: to have a good picture for a couple of months,

850
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 4: so it behooves you to pick him up just to

851
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:53,400
Speaker 4: see what it is, even if you would consider him

852
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:54,160
Speaker 4: so high, which I do.

853
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 1: Speaking of, let's get into our bi Low Sell High section.

854
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 1: We'll move a little quicker through our Bilo Sell High

855
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 1: and our waiver es central because we went along with

856
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:07,800
Speaker 1: Welsh talk about Jackson Holiday, which is probably my fault.

857
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 1: Let's start with your favorite by Low and you already

858
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 1: alluded to considering Lindor as your pick here.

859
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I considered Lindor but you talked me out of it,

860
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 4: and that felt a little bit too easy, just because

861
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 4: of his track record.

862
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 3: So my other.

863
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 4: By Low is someone I've actually seen people on discord

864
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 4: talk about dropping, which I don't think you should do yet.

865
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 4: And that's Christian and Carnacian Strand, and he's someone I

866
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 4: was really targeting in drafts this season just because he

867
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 4: was going really late. There's a lot of power potential there. He's,

868
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 4: you know, batting in a good lineup, in the heart

869
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 4: of a good lineup, and in one of the most

870
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:46,840
Speaker 4: hitter friendly ballparks in baseball. Now, he's off to a

871
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 4: slow start. He only has one home run, he's batting

872
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 4: one fifty four. But there are reasons to be encouraged here.

873
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,240
Speaker 4: One of those reasons is that he has some pretty

874
00:39:57,239 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 4: good expected numbers. He's still batting in the middle of

875
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 4: that order that you know, they obviously haven't given up

876
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 4: on him. It's a really small sample size, and it's

877
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:08,839
Speaker 4: kind of like the Pelons. I think you can't really

878
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,359
Speaker 4: rely on Babbit for like a you know, a power

879
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:12,960
Speaker 4: guy that doesn't have a ton of speed, but his

880
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 4: babbub is one eighty nine, So that's not helping and

881
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 4: he's just someone who and we talked about, you know,

882
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:26,280
Speaker 4: those expected difference numbers with Lindor same thing fancarnosion Strand

883
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:29,279
Speaker 4: is expected batting average is one hundred points higher than

884
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 4: his current batting average, his expected his slugging number is

885
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 4: two fifty, his expected slugging is forty seven, and similar

886
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:42,280
Speaker 4: numbers in WILBA. His current welba's one eighty three expected

887
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 4: is three thirteen, which three thirteen is still not great,

888
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 4: but it's a heck couple lot better than one eighty three,

889
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 4: And so there are encouraging expected numbers there, and he

890
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:52,920
Speaker 4: still has a ton of power potential and it's just

891
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:54,920
Speaker 4: way too early in the season to give up on him,

892
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 4: even though he's a younger guy without the same kind

893
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 4: of track record that we've talked about with some of

894
00:40:58,120 --> 00:40:58,800
Speaker 4: those other players.

895
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 1: My pick in uh to let everybody know, I in

896
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 1: an effort to kind of highlight some of our other

897
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:07,399
Speaker 1: writers on the site, I wanted to pick sort of

898
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:11,280
Speaker 1: my favorite by low Sell High candidates from our bilow

899
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:14,359
Speaker 1: Sell High article that gets dropped on Wednesdays on Fantasypros

900
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 1: dot com, So everybody should go check that out. Our

901
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 1: writer is Brett Usury. I believes how to pronounce his name.

902
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:25,720
Speaker 1: I apologize if I'm getting that wrong. Brett Usury uh

903
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:27,879
Speaker 1: So shouts to Brett for writing the article every week.

904
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,319
Speaker 1: We appreciate the work he's doing. I'm gonna pick my

905
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 1: favorite of his choices in the article. My favorite Bylow

906
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 1: this week was Tristan Cassas, who is a guy that

907
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 1: I drafted in a lot of places. I thought he

908
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 1: was undervalued. H you know, during during draft season this year,

909
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 1: as Brett points out, you know, the numbers have not

910
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:48,840
Speaker 1: quite been good. Although after he wrote the article, he

911
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 1: actually did hit a home run yesterday. It was a

912
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 1: bit of a cheapy, you know, fly ball that would

913
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 1: have been out in a lot of places, and he

914
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 1: somehow sneaks over.

915
00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:57,400
Speaker 2: A little bit.

916
00:41:57,440 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 3: I definitely would have been out in Baltimore.

917
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 1: Oh my god, it would have been out by about

918
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 1: forty feet in Baltimore. And and you know, and looking

919
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 1: more at the stat cast numbers too, like a lot

920
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:10,799
Speaker 1: of the expected stats are actually fairly similar as last year.

921
00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:13,279
Speaker 1: Expected batting averages like five points lower than it was

922
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 1: last year. Hard hit rate is like down by up percentage,

923
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 1: strike out rate up, but just a little bit walk

924
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 1: right down just a little bit. The real thing is,

925
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 1: you know, the exit velosity has been down a little

926
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 1: a couple of miles per hour, and the launch angle

927
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 1: last year is fifteen point seven degrees.

928
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:32,000
Speaker 2: It's eight this year.

929
00:42:32,160 --> 00:42:35,399
Speaker 1: So I expect that to change as we get He's

930
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:37,399
Speaker 1: also been playing in a lot of parks that are

931
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 1: not really conducive to you know, hitting, not necessarily like

932
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:43,319
Speaker 1: full on pitchers parks. So the couple have been but

933
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:45,720
Speaker 1: you know, they only just had their home opener earlier

934
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 1: this week, so it's been a lot of road games

935
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 1: to start the season.

936
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 2: He's only twenty four.

937
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 1: He's somebody that I think you actually can trade for

938
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,320
Speaker 1: because he wasn't going as like a top five first

939
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 1: basement on draft day. He was good last year, but

940
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 1: it wasn't the type of breakout where everybody who has

941
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 1: him is like an absolute believer and will never get

942
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:06,960
Speaker 1: rid of him. I think he's attainable, he's young, he's talented.

943
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 1: I think better days are to come compared to the

944
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 1: first couple weeks of the season. He's somebody that I

945
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 1: was in on, you know, in February March, so I

946
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 1: continue to be in on him. I think that's a

947
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 1: good call by Brett. Who is your cell high?

948
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 4: So my cell high is Jose Burrios. And it's for

949
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 4: a lot of the opposite reasons we were just talking about.

950
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 4: For some of these Bylows, his his current numbers are

951
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,919
Speaker 4: very good and his expected numbers are very bad. And

952
00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 4: his ERA is one point four to five. Most of

953
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:35,879
Speaker 4: his expected era numbers are closer and closer to four.

954
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 4: Case Sierra is five point five to seven. His let's see,

955
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 4: if you go to stodcast and look at era versus

956
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 4: expected era, his expected RA is more than four runs

957
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 4: higher than his current RA. And that is a massive difference.

958
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:54,359
Speaker 4: And again we're talking, you know, everything we talked about

959
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:55,840
Speaker 4: in the first few weeks of the season, we have

960
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 4: to you know, include the caveat that these are really

961
00:43:57,520 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 4: small sample sizes, and so especially when you get into

962
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:01,759
Speaker 4: like advance it's numbers, it's really hard to lean on

963
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:04,399
Speaker 4: him that hard just because we're talking about really small

964
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:07,400
Speaker 4: to make up smpathize. So but with that caveat, his

965
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:10,839
Speaker 4: expected ERA is more than four runs higher. No one else,

966
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 4: no one else has more than two and a half

967
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 4: runs higher. So he's just like getting incredibly lucky and

968
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 4: even though his numbers last year were fine, like one

969
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 4: hundred and eighty four strike guys, one hundred and eighty

970
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 4: nine two thirds innings ERA of three point sixty five,

971
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:26,120
Speaker 4: expected numbers were more between four four and a half.

972
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 4: I just think with people desperate for pitching, and with

973
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 4: his hot start, you can really sell high on someone

974
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 4: like Jose Brios when and this is something I've talked

975
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 4: about with with Dan Harris the last couple of years

976
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:41,360
Speaker 4: of someone it just feels like whenever you roster like

977
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 4: Jose Brios, even though the numbers other than twenty twenty

978
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:47,759
Speaker 4: two tend to like end up being fine, he just

979
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:49,799
Speaker 4: has these blow up starts that like if you're in

980
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 4: the head to head league, they just kill you for

981
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:54,439
Speaker 4: the week. And I just know some of those are coming,

982
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 4: especially playing in the Al East, And with these expected numbers,

983
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 4: you're gonna be able to sell him likely, especially for

984
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 4: you know, with what's happening to pitching right now, with

985
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:05,319
Speaker 4: his hot start, you're gonna be able to sell him

986
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 4: for a lot more than he's you know, technically worked.

987
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:11,360
Speaker 1: My favorite cell high from this week's article is Hunter Green,

988
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 1: and it, as Brett points out in the article. It

989
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 1: seems kind of crazy given the state of pitching right

990
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:19,320
Speaker 1: now and all the injuries. But speaking of a picture

991
00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 1: that I'm not necessarily that much of a believer in

992
00:45:22,239 --> 00:45:23,360
Speaker 1: staying healthy for the season.

993
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 2: It's Hunter Green.

994
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:26,920
Speaker 1: We talk about these, you know guys, was throwing with

995
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:30,759
Speaker 1: the crazy velocity. Nobody has better velocity than Green. He's

996
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:32,359
Speaker 1: going to give you strikeouts when he's on the mound,

997
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 1: that's for sure. He already had his worst start of

998
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:37,920
Speaker 1: the season last night. Again, after Brett's article came out yesterday,

999
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:41,239
Speaker 1: I picked Green as my choice before He gave up

1000
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:43,279
Speaker 1: six earned runs in yesterday's game.

1001
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 2: So his ERA is now up over four.

1002
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 1: The FIP is actually lower than his ERA, but it's

1003
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:53,839
Speaker 1: still at almost four. It's three ninety three is his

1004
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 1: FIP and his ERA is four eight six. Again, I

1005
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,839
Speaker 1: know you're gonna get strikeouts, and he has had two

1006
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 1: decent starts Arder to start the season.

1007
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 2: He doesn't play in a great ballpark for pitching.

1008
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:08,240
Speaker 1: Obviously, the team is not good enough that I expect

1009
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:10,520
Speaker 1: him to win a ton of games this season. I

1010
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 1: don't think. And again, just health like, He's just not

1011
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,279
Speaker 1: somebody that I'm going to feel like I generally am

1012
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:18,120
Speaker 1: going to trust like heh, you're going to get a

1013
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 1: solid one hundred and ninety innings at one hundred Green.

1014
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 2: Maybe you do.

1015
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 1: And I would love to see it because I like

1016
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 1: the kid and he's talented. But but he was my

1017
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 1: favorite of the Cell Highs. This week, let's go to

1018
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:31,879
Speaker 1: waivers Central Mayor, who is your favorite hitter to pick

1019
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 1: up off waivers right now?

1020
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 3: So my favorite hitter is Michael Bush. He's only rostered

1021
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:38,760
Speaker 3: in twenty two percent of Yahoo leagues. He's now first

1022
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:40,840
Speaker 3: base and third base eligible. He came in the end

1023
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:42,759
Speaker 3: of the year eligible at third base. He's now he's

1024
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 3: consistently playing every day at first base, so he's now

1025
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:46,720
Speaker 3: eligible at first base.

1026
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, he already has. He just hit a second home

1027
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 4: run of the season, so he has two home runs.

1028
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 4: He's batting two seventy.

1029
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:52,440
Speaker 3: Uh.

1030
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 4: He's someone who didn't come into the season with a

1031
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:56,719
Speaker 4: lot of buzz just because he had a He had

1032
00:46:56,760 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 4: a really good twenty twenty three in Triple A with

1033
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 4: the Dodgers. But when he came up with the Dodgers,

1034
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:06,400
Speaker 4: he played twenty seven games and it was not pretty.

1035
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:08,960
Speaker 4: He bat a one sixty seven with two home runs,

1036
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 4: a strikeout rate of over thirty three percent, and so

1037
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 4: for that reason, I think there was some questions about,

1038
00:47:14,400 --> 00:47:15,799
Speaker 4: you know, whether or not he would play every day

1039
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 4: with the Cubs and whether and just how vould he

1040
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 4: would be in fantasy. But I think there's a real

1041
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:23,319
Speaker 4: likelihood that we get a breakout, a breakout here. Like

1042
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:24,880
Speaker 4: I said, he hit twenty seven home runs in only

1043
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 4: ninety eight games in Triple A last year. It seems

1044
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:28,720
Speaker 4: like the Cubs are just going to let him play,

1045
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 4: and so far, so good. His walk rat is over

1046
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:34,720
Speaker 4: thirteen percent, strikeout rate is down to twenty five percent.

1047
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 4: You still would like it to be less than twenty

1048
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:38,040
Speaker 4: five percent, but it's still a lot lower than the

1049
00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:38,880
Speaker 4: thirty thirty.

1050
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 3: Percent last year.

1051
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 4: He's hit in the ball hard, he's sitting the ball

1052
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 4: in the air, and I think there's power potential for

1053
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:45,879
Speaker 4: you know, over twenty five home runs here, and he's

1054
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 4: essentially free on waivers right now, and from what we've

1055
00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:52,760
Speaker 4: seen in the early going, he's been hitting like fifth

1056
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 4: or sixth in the Cubs lineup. And if you can

1057
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:57,839
Speaker 4: get that kind of like especially with like first base,

1058
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 4: third base eligibility, both of those positions are the deepest

1059
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 4: this year. If you can add someone like Michael Bush

1060
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 4: to your bench, who in daily leagues you can rotate in,

1061
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:07,719
Speaker 4: or even in weekly leagues you can rotate into your

1062
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 4: corner spots, there's a lot of value there, with a

1063
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:12,240
Speaker 4: lot of potential, especially if you need power.

1064
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:15,040
Speaker 2: My favorite hitter to pick up is MJ. Melendez.

1065
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 1: And this is specific to ESPN leagues because in Yahoo

1066
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 1: has cat your eligibility, so he's rostered in over eighty

1067
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:23,719
Speaker 1: percent of leagues. But in other formats where he's not

1068
00:48:24,120 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 1: catcher eligible, which is most other places, I think he's

1069
00:48:28,640 --> 00:48:29,360
Speaker 1: a great pickup.

1070
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:30,920
Speaker 2: We know he has power.

1071
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 1: He hasn't necessarily demonstrated that at the big league level yet,

1072
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 1: but he had a forty home run season in the

1073
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:36,399
Speaker 1: miners a few years ago.

1074
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 2: He is hitting the absolute crap out of the ball.

1075
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:42,760
Speaker 1: If you look at his stat Patch stat Cast page,

1076
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 1: it looks like Acunya is from last year. It is

1077
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:50,439
Speaker 1: so red in every single category he is. He's top

1078
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:52,839
Speaker 1: three percent of the league in exsit velocity, he's top

1079
00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 1: two percent of the league in expected slugging, top three

1080
00:48:55,280 --> 00:48:57,360
Speaker 1: percent of the league in wOBA, top three percent of

1081
00:48:57,400 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 1: the league in x wOBA, top six percent of the

1082
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 1: league an x will butacan, which is just a fun

1083
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:04,800
Speaker 1: stat to say. And his hard hit rate is fifty

1084
00:49:04,880 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 1: seven percent. That's the ninety fifth percent stile.

1085
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 2: So he is.

1086
00:49:09,160 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 1: He's hitting the cover off the ball. He's batting three

1087
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 1: twenty five. He has three home runs this season. He

1088
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:16,680
Speaker 1: has one fewer walk than strikeout this year. Is ops

1089
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:20,360
Speaker 1: is over eleven hundred. I don't He's not gonna be

1090
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:22,000
Speaker 1: the best hitter in baseball this season, right, I mean,

1091
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that, but the BATA ball profile supports

1092
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 1: the fact that his bat has been really strong to

1093
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:31,240
Speaker 1: start the year. The Royals have been better than expected

1094
00:49:31,239 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 1: to start the year, the lineup has been better than

1095
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 1: expected around him to start the year. He's only twenty

1096
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 1: five years old. Again, we know there's a degree of

1097
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 1: pedigree here given what we saw, especially in that twenty

1098
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:44,439
Speaker 1: twenty one season in the minors. Even if he's only

1099
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 1: outfield eligible, I think he's a no brainer pickup given

1100
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:48,440
Speaker 1: what the data looks like.

1101
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 2: What do you think about Melendez?

1102
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's someone I think we may have talked about

1103
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:55,560
Speaker 4: him a couple weeks ago as someone I ended up

1104
00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:58,799
Speaker 4: drafting him in a league where I really needed some outfielders.

1105
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:01,520
Speaker 3: And yeah, like, like you said, even at the time.

1106
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 4: His batted ball data was really good and it's only

1107
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:07,000
Speaker 4: gotten better from there. So coming into the end of

1108
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:10,120
Speaker 4: the year, I was a little skeptical before my last draft,

1109
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 4: and I really needed him. And you know, somehow rostering

1110
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:15,839
Speaker 4: a player helps you feel better about them, because I

1111
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:17,799
Speaker 4: was like I was wondering. I was worried, like, are

1112
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:21,399
Speaker 4: we just overvaluing him because of the catcher eligibility thing,

1113
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 4: because you know, we saw this guy of where you know,

1114
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 4: like you could kind of especially like in a league

1115
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 4: this year where he's catcher eligible and not playing catcher like, oh,

1116
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 4: that's incredibly valuable. You get this guy every day playing

1117
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:35,520
Speaker 4: every day, is not catching. But then I was almost

1118
00:50:35,600 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 4: wondering if we were kind of like projecting him to

1119
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 4: be a little bit too much better just because he's

1120
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:39,880
Speaker 4: not catching.

1121
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 3: But so far, so good bad at all. Data looks terrific.

1122
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:46,319
Speaker 1: It's it's tremendous, And yeah, this is one of those

1123
00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:48,319
Speaker 1: things where it's not like a guy's getting lucky like

1124
00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:53,520
Speaker 1: he's it really it feels it's twelve games into the season, right,

1125
00:50:53,520 --> 00:50:55,400
Speaker 1: but it feels like like a breakout, and it's not

1126
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:57,239
Speaker 1: so unusual for a guy to break out at twenty five,

1127
00:50:57,320 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 1: So I don't think he needs to be one hundred

1128
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 1: percent rostered. But I'm picking him up wherever I can,

1129
00:51:02,680 --> 00:51:05,960
Speaker 1: and I think twenty two percent on ESPN is far,

1130
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 1: far too low of a number.

1131
00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:09,080
Speaker 2: How about the pictures? Who are you picking up?

1132
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:13,080
Speaker 4: So this name is another one I kind of considered

1133
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:16,920
Speaker 4: as a cell high, but he's now my Waiver Central

1134
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:19,720
Speaker 4: pickup out of the week. And I say that because

1135
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:21,359
Speaker 4: of what we've already talked about a little bit, right,

1136
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:24,799
Speaker 4: Like cell high doesn't mean bad, it just means overvalued,

1137
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:29,080
Speaker 4: or you know, procede value is more than actual value.

1138
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:31,120
Speaker 4: But there's also a lot to be said about short

1139
00:51:31,160 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 4: term value, and Spencer Turnbull has a lot of short

1140
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 4: term value. Through eleven innings to start the year, he

1141
00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:40,560
Speaker 4: has thirteen strikeouts and no runs allowed, and not a

1142
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:42,279
Speaker 4: whole lot of people saw this coming, although he was

1143
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 4: pretty good in fifty across fifty innings in twenty twenty one.

1144
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:48,439
Speaker 4: But you know, we're a few years removed from twenty

1145
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:49,840
Speaker 4: twenty one, so it's kind of hard to rely on

1146
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:52,360
Speaker 4: those numbers, especially because when last year his ear was

1147
00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:54,839
Speaker 4: over seven and only thirty one innings, but still over

1148
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:57,080
Speaker 4: seven is bad.

1149
00:51:57,760 --> 00:52:00,880
Speaker 3: But it's hard to arre you with the early results.

1150
00:52:00,920 --> 00:52:04,440
Speaker 4: And again with what we talked about with Cody Bradford,

1151
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:06,120
Speaker 4: is you look at that, you're trying to look at

1152
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:08,319
Speaker 4: the numbers and look at what's different, like what could

1153
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 4: be contributing.

1154
00:52:09,640 --> 00:52:10,280
Speaker 3: To this change.

1155
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:12,920
Speaker 4: And one thing that he's doing is throwing a sweeper

1156
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:16,279
Speaker 4: now and some of that is probably his twenty twenty

1157
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:19,080
Speaker 4: three slider. Depending on how different it is, it could

1158
00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:20,960
Speaker 4: just be now being classified as a sweeper, but it's

1159
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:23,920
Speaker 4: now being classified as a sweeper. And he's whether slider

1160
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:26,400
Speaker 4: or a sleeper or a sweeper, he's throwing.

1161
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 3: At a ton. So last year he threw his four

1162
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:30,239
Speaker 3: seamer forty percent of the time and his slider twenty

1163
00:52:30,239 --> 00:52:32,400
Speaker 3: two percent of the time. This year he's throwing his

1164
00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:33,439
Speaker 3: four seamer.

1165
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:35,440
Speaker 4: Thirty five point eight percent of the time and his

1166
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:37,720
Speaker 4: sweeper thirty two percent of the time, so almost fifty

1167
00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 4: to fifty four seamer sweeper, kind of leaning on both.

1168
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:44,400
Speaker 4: And they actually have on stackcast a few sliders in

1169
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:49,239
Speaker 4: there which are probably just miscalculated sweepers, because I doubt

1170
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 4: he's throwing a sweeper and a slider, especially because it

1171
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:53,920
Speaker 4: says he's only throwing seven sliders, and if you include

1172
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 4: the sliders in there, he's actually throwing a sweeper more

1173
00:52:57,200 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 4: than his four seamers. So he's actually really leaning on

1174
00:52:59,680 --> 00:53:02,319
Speaker 4: this slid or sweeper, whoever you want to classify it.

1175
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:04,759
Speaker 4: And he's cut down on using his sinker, which is

1176
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 4: about twenty percent last year. Now it's only ten percent.

1177
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:10,719
Speaker 4: So he's really leaning on this sweeper slider combo and

1178
00:53:10,760 --> 00:53:13,800
Speaker 4: then sprinkling in the other offerings. He has a sinker

1179
00:53:13,840 --> 00:53:16,719
Speaker 4: curve ball change up just to kind of mix things up,

1180
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:19,200
Speaker 4: but he's really leaning on that sweeper, and so far

1181
00:53:19,320 --> 00:53:21,000
Speaker 4: the results are very promising. He's getting a lot of

1182
00:53:21,000 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 4: whiffs and obviously has not allowed any runs.

1183
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:25,680
Speaker 2: My choice here, Tyler Anderson.

1184
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:28,480
Speaker 1: I was actually surprised to realize he was thirty four already.

1185
00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 1: It just makes me feel old because I feel like

1186
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 1: I've been watching him for a few years now. There

1187
00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:34,719
Speaker 1: are some interesting stuff that I will highlight in the

1188
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:38,480
Speaker 1: stackcast data. Having said that, if a guy in this

1189
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 1: age of pitching goes back to back seven innings, four hits,

1190
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:45,200
Speaker 1: no earned runs, he had three walks total across those

1191
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:47,640
Speaker 1: two starts only eight strikeouts total.

1192
00:53:47,680 --> 00:53:49,800
Speaker 2: So obviously not a guy who's gonna give you strikeouts.

1193
00:53:49,840 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 1: And I totally recognize if given the state of your league,

1194
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:54,920
Speaker 1: that is like kind of a non starter for you,

1195
00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:58,359
Speaker 1: But again, given the state of pitching, everybody needs it.

1196
00:53:58,520 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 1: If a guy is throwing backpack shout out seven innings,

1197
00:54:01,640 --> 00:54:03,760
Speaker 1: you know, to start the season, I'm going to be interested.

1198
00:54:04,440 --> 00:54:06,720
Speaker 2: And he is. He is very available in leagues.

1199
00:54:06,719 --> 00:54:10,759
Speaker 1: He's under twenty percent in all formats. And there is

1200
00:54:10,800 --> 00:54:13,879
Speaker 1: some interesting stuff in the stack cast profile. The chase

1201
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:16,520
Speaker 1: rate is actually really high. It's ninety seven percent stile.

1202
00:54:16,520 --> 00:54:20,000
Speaker 1: The wifth rate is sixty four percent sile. Maybe he

1203
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:22,279
Speaker 1: strikes out, I mean at least better at the rate

1204
00:54:22,320 --> 00:54:24,800
Speaker 1: he's doing right now. He's not going to become like

1205
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:27,080
Speaker 1: a strikeout ace for you or anything like that. But

1206
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:30,920
Speaker 1: you know, the last three years were nineteen percent, nineteen percent,

1207
00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:34,439
Speaker 1: eighteen point nine percent. This year it's fifteen percent k rate.

1208
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:36,520
Speaker 1: I think that can go up a bit. And if

1209
00:54:36,560 --> 00:54:39,960
Speaker 1: he continues to induce week contact. I mean, again, there's

1210
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:43,400
Speaker 1: a lot of red on a stackcast page, not everywhere. Obviously,

1211
00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:46,479
Speaker 1: the fast fall velocity is under ninety so certainly not there.

1212
00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:50,000
Speaker 1: But yeah, again I get it if you need strikeouts,

1213
00:54:50,400 --> 00:54:52,719
Speaker 1: if your league scoring is such that you cannot have

1214
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:55,600
Speaker 1: a pitcher, he doesn't strike guys out, don't bother. But

1215
00:54:55,800 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 1: if you can take value in other ways, I think

1216
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:01,640
Speaker 1: Anderson's a guy that he is going to cost you

1217
00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 1: absolutely nothing and you can get some value for him.

1218
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:07,239
Speaker 1: Any quick thoughts on Anderson. No, let's toss it to

1219
00:55:07,440 --> 00:55:12,040
Speaker 1: our conversation with Welsh again. We went deep on Jackson Holiday.

1220
00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:15,760
Speaker 1: Really great talk with obviously a prospect expert and obviously

1221
00:55:15,800 --> 00:55:17,040
Speaker 1: coming from an Orioles fan.

1222
00:55:17,080 --> 00:55:18,360
Speaker 2: It was a very exciting chat with me.

1223
00:55:18,400 --> 00:55:22,239
Speaker 1: Again, this chat did take place for his debut last night,

1224
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:25,160
Speaker 1: just due to scheduling, so we do not touch on

1225
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:27,840
Speaker 1: his His O for four I think it was with

1226
00:55:27,880 --> 00:55:31,080
Speaker 1: an RBI in the Orioles Wind over the Red Sox.

1227
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:34,160
Speaker 2: But let's kick it over to Welsh.

1228
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:37,279
Speaker 1: Welcome back into the cycle, Mayor and I are of

1229
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:40,799
Speaker 1: course joined by Chris Welsh, our friend and colleague, to

1230
00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 1: talk about none other than Jackson Holiday. I am over

1231
00:55:45,480 --> 00:55:50,200
Speaker 1: the moon about this promotion. I was talking with pretty

1232
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:52,080
Speaker 1: much anybody and everybody in my life that is an

1233
00:55:52,080 --> 00:55:56,040
Speaker 1: Orioles fan about you know, ranking our most exciting debuts

1234
00:55:56,360 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 1: of prospects.

1235
00:55:57,200 --> 00:55:59,000
Speaker 2: You know, we've been really blessed recently.

1236
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:01,880
Speaker 1: But even going back to like weaders Manny Machado, of course,

1237
00:56:01,880 --> 00:56:05,240
Speaker 1: Adley Gunner, Grayson, like Holliday might be a better prospect

1238
00:56:05,239 --> 00:56:07,719
Speaker 1: than any of him. MLB pipeline, does you know their

1239
00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:10,480
Speaker 1: rankings every year of all of ranking their number one

1240
00:56:10,520 --> 00:56:12,800
Speaker 1: overall prospects against each other. I think Holiday was like

1241
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:14,600
Speaker 1: fifth on that list, and one of the people ahead

1242
00:56:14,640 --> 00:56:16,840
Speaker 1: of him was Otani, which barely counts. So it's really

1243
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:18,839
Speaker 1: like one of the you know, top four or five

1244
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:22,440
Speaker 1: prospects here, you know, in the last couple of decades, Welsh,

1245
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:24,000
Speaker 1: I mean, there was nobody else to bring on but

1246
00:56:24,120 --> 00:56:27,160
Speaker 1: you to talk about the number one overall prospect in baseball.

1247
00:56:27,040 --> 00:56:27,920
Speaker 2: Getting called up.

1248
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:30,040
Speaker 1: I could just go on like a twenty minute soliloquy

1249
00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:31,239
Speaker 1: about Jackson Holliday.

1250
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:31,480
Speaker 5: As you should.

1251
00:56:31,640 --> 00:56:33,799
Speaker 1: As you should, let's actually hear some of your expertise, though,

1252
00:56:33,800 --> 00:56:35,319
Speaker 1: because that's what the people are looking for.

1253
00:56:35,520 --> 00:56:37,560
Speaker 2: I mean, to what degree you're to be excited here?

1254
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:40,160
Speaker 5: No, we should be immensely excited, you know.

1255
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 6: I think what makes it actually boosts it up a

1256
00:56:42,719 --> 00:56:45,680
Speaker 6: little bit is you take that culmination of the top

1257
00:56:45,719 --> 00:56:48,480
Speaker 6: prospects and he was just the one left off the table,

1258
00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:50,279
Speaker 6: you know. I mean he was as exciting as White

1259
00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:54,919
Speaker 6: Langford Enturia. They were actually the the because they were

1260
00:56:54,960 --> 00:56:57,640
Speaker 6: called up. They just broke the roster. Like that excitement

1261
00:56:57,719 --> 00:56:59,680
Speaker 6: was kind of killed. So you have this guy that

1262
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:02,520
Speaker 6: you've you in the same vein that isn't being given

1263
00:57:02,560 --> 00:57:06,680
Speaker 6: that opportunity, that shouldn't have been sent down and absolutely dominating,

1264
00:57:06,760 --> 00:57:09,400
Speaker 6: not just dominated, but was a part of maybe one

1265
00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 6: of the most ridiculous minor league teams we've seen in

1266
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 6: the ages between that Norfolk team with just you know,

1267
00:57:15,719 --> 00:57:19,000
Speaker 6: Kobe Mayo and Hester Kerstadt. Connor Norby has been going

1268
00:57:19,040 --> 00:57:20,680
Speaker 6: off and Jackson was right in the middle of that.

1269
00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:22,520
Speaker 5: We of course should be excited, you know.

1270
00:57:22,680 --> 00:57:25,120
Speaker 6: And I was thinking myself like when you said, of

1271
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:27,840
Speaker 6: you know, the most excitement, I have a lot of

1272
00:57:28,080 --> 00:57:31,960
Speaker 6: clear excitements. Corbyn Carroll was clearly exciting for me. You

1273
00:57:32,040 --> 00:57:33,920
Speaker 6: hate to mention him, but you know, Wanda Franco at

1274
00:57:33,920 --> 00:57:36,080
Speaker 6: the time like that was an exciting one.

1275
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:37,880
Speaker 5: There's a lot of those exciting.

1276
00:57:37,400 --> 00:57:39,720
Speaker 6: Ones, but you want to know the oddest one that

1277
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:42,520
Speaker 6: is imprinted in my brain it's the one that I

1278
00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 6: think of when you say exciting.

1279
00:57:45,560 --> 00:57:50,280
Speaker 5: And you'll never guess b j Upton, that's the one.

1280
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 6: I remember that being like appointment television because he was

1281
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:56,280
Speaker 6: going to be one of the next big guys and

1282
00:57:57,200 --> 00:57:59,920
Speaker 6: prospects were starting to become even more exciting, David Rye

1283
00:58:00,200 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 6: and all these guys, and bj Upton was in this

1284
00:58:03,200 --> 00:58:06,600
Speaker 6: space of like, oh my gosh, the Rays, It's gonna

1285
00:58:06,680 --> 00:58:09,440
Speaker 6: change the future. And I remember, like maybe it was

1286
00:58:09,560 --> 00:58:10,400
Speaker 6: MLB Network or whatever.

1287
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:13,080
Speaker 3: Do you remember what boss Man Junior stands for or.

1288
00:58:17,040 --> 00:58:17,880
Speaker 2: I forgetting.

1289
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:20,040
Speaker 3: Melvin Upton?

1290
00:58:20,360 --> 00:58:22,200
Speaker 5: Melvin that's right, yeah, Melvin up there.

1291
00:58:22,240 --> 00:58:24,960
Speaker 6: And I love Justin Upton too, So obviously, like the

1292
00:58:24,960 --> 00:58:26,680
Speaker 6: top prospect is always really exciting.

1293
00:58:27,280 --> 00:58:28,640
Speaker 5: He is unique.

1294
00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:31,920
Speaker 6: I'll stop talking so you can ask the questions because

1295
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 6: you the question you asked was the level of excitement

1296
00:58:34,080 --> 00:58:38,320
Speaker 6: We should be excited because there is a ceiling and

1297
00:58:38,360 --> 00:58:41,479
Speaker 6: a floor if people pay attention to those terms. The

1298
00:58:41,520 --> 00:58:43,960
Speaker 6: floor for a guy like Jackson Holiday is I think

1299
00:58:44,000 --> 00:58:46,720
Speaker 6: what actually makes him so exciting, because maybe I'm setting

1300
00:58:46,760 --> 00:58:50,680
Speaker 6: myself up. I don't see massive downside in who he's

1301
00:58:50,720 --> 00:58:53,480
Speaker 6: going to be as a prospect, where some guys have

1302
00:58:53,640 --> 00:58:56,600
Speaker 6: this huge Ellie Daily Cruz. Maybe the biggest ceiling and

1303
00:58:56,640 --> 00:59:00,320
Speaker 6: biggest floor you've ever seen in anybody. Jackson Holliday's low

1304
00:59:00,400 --> 00:59:02,800
Speaker 6: points are so much lower than I think a lot

1305
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:04,560
Speaker 6: of guys, and really what he did in the miners

1306
00:59:05,080 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 6: kind of has told that story.

1307
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:07,760
Speaker 5: But yeah, we should be excited.

1308
00:59:08,240 --> 00:59:09,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think that's a good point.

1309
00:59:09,840 --> 00:59:11,600
Speaker 1: That's something I was saying to one of my longtime

1310
00:59:11,640 --> 00:59:14,080
Speaker 1: Orile friends is that you know, he doesn't he's not

1311
00:59:14,080 --> 00:59:16,919
Speaker 1: coming up with the flash of Amanny Machado in terms

1312
00:59:16,960 --> 00:59:19,600
Speaker 1: of the tools and what Manny brought to the table

1313
00:59:19,600 --> 00:59:21,800
Speaker 1: when he was caught up in twenty twelve. But there's

1314
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:24,760
Speaker 1: just such a degree of certainty that Holiday is going

1315
00:59:24,840 --> 00:59:27,440
Speaker 1: to be a good player. He has been at every

1316
00:59:27,480 --> 00:59:30,400
Speaker 1: stop since he broke out. You know that in that

1317
00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:32,480
Speaker 1: draft year in twenty twenty two, when he became the

1318
00:59:32,480 --> 00:59:35,840
Speaker 1: NORMB one overall pick. Just just some quick I'm sure

1319
00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:38,160
Speaker 1: most people listening are pretty aware of Jackson Holiday, but

1320
00:59:38,320 --> 00:59:41,000
Speaker 1: he is the number one overall prospect in baseball on

1321
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:42,800
Speaker 1: almost every scouting service.

1322
00:59:42,840 --> 00:59:43,480
Speaker 2: I don't recall.

1323
00:59:43,600 --> 00:59:45,240
Speaker 1: There's there might be a couple here and there, but

1324
00:59:45,440 --> 00:59:48,080
Speaker 1: pretty much Langigford Langford.

1325
00:59:47,680 --> 00:59:51,080
Speaker 6: Kind of owns the space in some like Okay, traditional

1326
00:59:51,160 --> 00:59:55,560
Speaker 6: baseball places have really honed in on Jackson Holiday. The

1327
00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:58,800
Speaker 6: fantasy people, yes, are kind of torn because I know

1328
00:59:58,920 --> 01:00:03,840
Speaker 6: an analyst too that likes Caimonaro Churio. Langford actually kind

1329
01:00:03,840 --> 01:00:06,520
Speaker 6: of took over because of him breaking camp and everything

1330
01:00:06,560 --> 01:00:09,920
Speaker 6: like that. But the most important is me. I have

1331
01:00:10,000 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 6: been a Jackson Holiday guy. I'm just kidding, but Jackson

1332
01:00:12,600 --> 01:00:14,720
Speaker 6: Hollidy has been my guy, even in the face of

1333
01:00:14,760 --> 01:00:17,720
Speaker 6: why at Langford being up and producing and having a

1334
01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:19,720
Speaker 6: most ridiculous spring you've ever seen.

1335
01:00:20,040 --> 01:00:21,880
Speaker 1: No, And that's a good point that you know, difference

1336
01:00:21,920 --> 01:00:24,200
Speaker 1: between kind of the fantasy rankings and the overall rankings.

1337
01:00:24,200 --> 01:00:26,560
Speaker 1: But even like just to get like MLB pipeline for example,

1338
01:00:26,680 --> 01:00:28,520
Speaker 1: he's the only guy that they have a future value

1339
01:00:28,560 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 1: of seventy on.

1340
01:00:29,320 --> 01:00:30,440
Speaker 2: Same thing with fangrafts.

1341
01:00:30,440 --> 01:00:33,400
Speaker 1: These are not fantasy specific, but just the the Again,

1342
01:00:33,440 --> 01:00:35,720
Speaker 1: the level of excitement across the industry has been very

1343
01:00:35,800 --> 01:00:38,680
Speaker 1: high for Holiday, basically since you know he he stepped

1344
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:40,040
Speaker 1: onto a minor league field.

1345
01:00:41,000 --> 01:00:42,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wanted to. I want to just give the stats.

1346
01:00:42,840 --> 01:00:44,800
Speaker 1: You know, in his miners career one hundred and fifty

1347
01:00:44,800 --> 01:00:47,320
Speaker 1: five games, you know, his slash line is three twenty one,

1348
01:00:47,400 --> 01:00:50,560
Speaker 1: four fifty one for ninety seven or the ops is

1349
01:00:50,600 --> 01:00:53,560
Speaker 1: a nine to forty eight. You know, fifteen home runs

1350
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:55,280
Speaker 1: in his career, twelve of those came in his only

1351
01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:55,960
Speaker 1: full season.

1352
01:00:56,520 --> 01:00:59,960
Speaker 2: Almost thirty steals. He's at twenty nine, you know, all.

1353
01:01:00,240 --> 01:01:02,760
Speaker 1: As many walks as strikeouts in his minor league career,

1354
01:01:02,760 --> 01:01:05,280
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty eight of each. So just like

1355
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:07,720
Speaker 1: some really ridiculous numbers for a guy that is going

1356
01:01:07,760 --> 01:01:10,440
Speaker 1: to be twenty years old for this entire season. The

1357
01:01:10,480 --> 01:01:12,200
Speaker 1: other thing that I wanted to note here, just in

1358
01:01:12,240 --> 01:01:14,880
Speaker 1: terms is kind of the bio they are giving him

1359
01:01:14,920 --> 01:01:18,400
Speaker 1: number seven. As you pointed out, you know, talking about

1360
01:01:18,440 --> 01:01:21,720
Speaker 1: kind of Corbyn Carroll number seven and Bobby Witt number seven.

1361
01:01:22,280 --> 01:01:25,640
Speaker 1: You have their jerseys already. This is an important number

1362
01:01:25,640 --> 01:01:27,800
Speaker 1: for the Oriols. It is not retired, but it is

1363
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:31,000
Speaker 1: unofficially retired. Nobody has worn it since the Ripkins Cal

1364
01:01:31,120 --> 01:01:34,520
Speaker 1: Ripkins Senior were number seven. Then Billy Ripkin wore He's

1365
01:01:34,560 --> 01:01:36,480
Speaker 1: the last player, and that was back in the eighties.

1366
01:01:36,760 --> 01:01:39,080
Speaker 1: Everybody else who's ever worn seven for the Orioles is

1367
01:01:39,120 --> 01:01:40,600
Speaker 1: like from the fifties or earlier.

1368
01:01:41,360 --> 01:01:44,240
Speaker 2: Mark Blanger is on that list as well.

1369
01:01:44,440 --> 01:01:46,840
Speaker 1: I see Welsh's pointing even though we're this is an

1370
01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:49,880
Speaker 1: audio only podcast, but oh, you know.

1371
01:01:50,120 --> 01:01:54,720
Speaker 6: I have the infamous Billy Ripkin card. But even better,

1372
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:58,600
Speaker 6: some card guy I have. It's there's a guy named

1373
01:01:58,600 --> 01:02:02,040
Speaker 6: Alex Party who's an artist for Tops, and he recreated

1374
01:02:02,360 --> 01:02:05,520
Speaker 6: a version of the Billy Ripken card in his Brighten

1375
01:02:05,520 --> 01:02:08,320
Speaker 6: Air series and I have both proudly.

1376
01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:10,680
Speaker 5: I was actually hoping on leading off today.

1377
01:02:10,360 --> 01:02:12,720
Speaker 6: As we did it that someone would notice, and I

1378
01:02:12,840 --> 01:02:14,880
Speaker 6: moved it to a place that could be seen visually,

1379
01:02:14,960 --> 01:02:17,080
Speaker 6: so people will probably now notice it. But just wanted

1380
01:02:17,120 --> 01:02:18,840
Speaker 6: to give a shout out that I just so happened

1381
01:02:18,840 --> 01:02:21,560
Speaker 6: to have the number seven Billy Rippin. Oh that's really disable.

1382
01:02:21,840 --> 01:02:23,479
Speaker 3: Do you want to tell the audience what it says

1383
01:02:23,480 --> 01:02:24,280
Speaker 3: on the bottom of that beat?

1384
01:02:25,000 --> 01:02:27,760
Speaker 5: It says fun face. It says fun face on the bottom.

1385
01:02:27,800 --> 01:02:28,439
Speaker 5: He's a fun guy.

1386
01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:31,360
Speaker 1: He The Lyrican was on and will be network earlier

1387
01:02:31,400 --> 01:02:33,600
Speaker 1: this morning talking about how the Holidays had kind of

1388
01:02:33,840 --> 01:02:35,360
Speaker 1: reached out to them to be like, hey, you know,

1389
01:02:35,400 --> 01:02:37,600
Speaker 1: we would like Jackson were number seven. If you guys

1390
01:02:37,640 --> 01:02:39,400
Speaker 1: are okay with it, we know this is unofficially retired

1391
01:02:39,520 --> 01:02:41,400
Speaker 1: and they said, yes, like we think Jackson is the

1392
01:02:41,480 --> 01:02:44,080
Speaker 1: right type of guy to sort of reintroduce this this

1393
01:02:44,200 --> 01:02:46,000
Speaker 1: very important number in royal sistory. So I just say

1394
01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:48,680
Speaker 1: that to say again the confidence level from the organization

1395
01:02:48,720 --> 01:02:52,320
Speaker 1: and the people around the organization is very high in

1396
01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:55,120
Speaker 1: Jackson and Welsh, you know, just to kind of get

1397
01:02:55,160 --> 01:02:57,959
Speaker 1: into a question like just straight off the bat, where

1398
01:02:57,960 --> 01:03:00,200
Speaker 1: would you rank your rest of season you know, as

1399
01:03:00,400 --> 01:03:03,440
Speaker 1: a second basement slash shortstop, you know, given the eligibility.

1400
01:03:03,480 --> 01:03:06,400
Speaker 6: Actually, I've just I've been working recently. I've got some updates.

1401
01:03:06,520 --> 01:03:08,120
Speaker 6: People want to check on Benesasy pros. I have been

1402
01:03:08,160 --> 01:03:10,040
Speaker 6: doing my rest of season ranks. I kind of held

1403
01:03:10,080 --> 01:03:12,360
Speaker 6: off for the first like week and a half and

1404
01:03:12,400 --> 01:03:14,160
Speaker 6: then I just started putting some of those ranks in

1405
01:03:14,200 --> 01:03:16,240
Speaker 6: and I've got to tackle it again and I'm trying

1406
01:03:16,280 --> 01:03:18,320
Speaker 6: to finalize things in the next week or so, you know,

1407
01:03:18,880 --> 01:03:22,680
Speaker 6: for now as everything changes. I had said in pre

1408
01:03:23,280 --> 01:03:26,640
Speaker 6: draft season that if Jackson Holiday were to break camp,

1409
01:03:26,680 --> 01:03:29,680
Speaker 6: he would be a top one hundred overall player, And

1410
01:03:29,840 --> 01:03:32,720
Speaker 6: I'm going to kind of stick to that range that

1411
01:03:32,840 --> 01:03:35,040
Speaker 6: I think, like I have wyat Langford in like the

1412
01:03:35,360 --> 01:03:37,600
Speaker 6: you know, fifty five sixty rest of season. I got

1413
01:03:37,640 --> 01:03:39,640
Speaker 6: Trio right next to him. They're both like top seventy

1414
01:03:39,640 --> 01:03:40,120
Speaker 6: five guys.

1415
01:03:40,160 --> 01:03:42,600
Speaker 5: Rest of season. I will probably put him right in

1416
01:03:42,680 --> 01:03:43,520
Speaker 5: that general range.

1417
01:03:43,560 --> 01:03:45,760
Speaker 6: And that does lead to It's like the biggest question

1418
01:03:46,120 --> 01:03:49,200
Speaker 6: that everybody is dealing with is, you know, is this

1419
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:52,440
Speaker 6: prospect over overhyped to the level that they can live

1420
01:03:52,520 --> 01:03:53,840
Speaker 6: up to expectations?

1421
01:03:53,880 --> 01:03:54,840
Speaker 5: And I think it's fair.

1422
01:03:55,200 --> 01:03:56,840
Speaker 6: You know, we talked a lot about it on the

1423
01:03:56,960 --> 01:04:01,400
Speaker 6: Wednesday edition of Leading Off. It's fair to consider what

1424
01:04:01,480 --> 01:04:03,720
Speaker 6: trades might need to look like with a Jackson holiday.

1425
01:04:03,760 --> 01:04:05,800
Speaker 6: Sometimes the best time to trade a prospect is right

1426
01:04:05,800 --> 01:04:06,720
Speaker 6: as they came up.

1427
01:04:07,480 --> 01:04:08,040
Speaker 5: Transparracy.

1428
01:04:08,040 --> 01:04:10,720
Speaker 6: People probably understand we're recording this right before his debut.

1429
01:04:10,840 --> 01:04:13,840
Speaker 6: People are listening to this after he has played. Maybe

1430
01:04:13,880 --> 01:04:15,640
Speaker 6: he went over four, maybe he went four for four.

1431
01:04:15,720 --> 01:04:18,000
Speaker 6: You never know, there's still a little bit of time

1432
01:04:18,040 --> 01:04:21,040
Speaker 6: to jump into that. Can he live up to expectations?

1433
01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:23,160
Speaker 6: Expectations are sky high. I think it's actually going to

1434
01:04:23,200 --> 01:04:25,320
Speaker 6: be pretty tough for him to live up to the

1435
01:04:25,640 --> 01:04:28,400
Speaker 6: I actually think his expectations might even feel greater than

1436
01:04:28,760 --> 01:04:31,160
Speaker 6: drafting why at Langford in the top seventy right now,

1437
01:04:31,200 --> 01:04:33,080
Speaker 6: just because of how hyped he is, and people like

1438
01:04:33,160 --> 01:04:35,680
Speaker 6: me hyping him up, so you could look to trade him.

1439
01:04:35,680 --> 01:04:38,000
Speaker 6: But what I do think from a fantasy perspective is,

1440
01:04:38,520 --> 01:04:42,560
Speaker 6: you know, you do look at the hardcore tangibles of him,

1441
01:04:42,600 --> 01:04:44,920
Speaker 6: and those are low strike rate in triple A. He

1442
01:04:44,960 --> 01:04:47,880
Speaker 6: had a fourteen percent k percentage in triple A so

1443
01:04:47,880 --> 01:04:49,480
Speaker 6: far in a very small sample size this year.

1444
01:04:49,720 --> 01:04:52,160
Speaker 5: With the twenty one percent walk rate, it's phenomenal.

1445
01:04:52,560 --> 01:04:55,080
Speaker 6: Three thirty three average hit A couple homers hit him

1446
01:04:55,080 --> 01:04:55,840
Speaker 6: off of lefties.

1447
01:04:55,920 --> 01:04:56,480
Speaker 5: I believe he was.

1448
01:04:56,480 --> 01:05:00,200
Speaker 6: Averaging around ninety one average EV in triple A. And

1449
01:05:00,240 --> 01:05:04,120
Speaker 6: everybody picks on the power numbers, but I think what

1450
01:05:04,200 --> 01:05:07,160
Speaker 6: you need to focus on is not what is lacking

1451
01:05:07,440 --> 01:05:09,840
Speaker 6: in the player, but focus on what is he going

1452
01:05:09,920 --> 01:05:12,000
Speaker 6: to bring every single day. It's probably gonna hit six,

1453
01:05:12,240 --> 01:05:14,160
Speaker 6: He's going to hit a decent batting average. He will

1454
01:05:14,160 --> 01:05:17,240
Speaker 6: get on base because he's a high OBP guy, doesn't

1455
01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:19,400
Speaker 6: strike out a ton, and I think that's going to

1456
01:05:19,480 --> 01:05:21,880
Speaker 6: lead to really good stolen bases. That's why I projected

1457
01:05:21,920 --> 01:05:25,000
Speaker 6: him over thirty this year. I had said I might

1458
01:05:25,000 --> 01:05:27,400
Speaker 6: have said it with you guys. I think he's low

1459
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:32,120
Speaker 6: key a higher batting average Bobby Witt junior rookie year guy,

1460
01:05:32,200 --> 01:05:35,160
Speaker 6: and Bobby Witt was twenty thirty in his rookie season.

1461
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:38,280
Speaker 5: The batting average struggled. I think he could be.

1462
01:05:38,000 --> 01:05:41,880
Speaker 6: Fifteen thirty, fifteen thirty five with a better batting average,

1463
01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:43,360
Speaker 6: and that might win him Rookie of the Year.

1464
01:05:43,360 --> 01:05:44,760
Speaker 5: He still got all the opportunities.

1465
01:05:44,760 --> 01:05:46,840
Speaker 6: So by virtue of how I feel about that, I

1466
01:05:46,880 --> 01:05:48,480
Speaker 6: think he's got to be like a top one hundred,

1467
01:05:48,520 --> 01:05:52,000
Speaker 6: top seventy five player rest of season. He's a startable asset.

1468
01:05:52,200 --> 01:05:53,880
Speaker 6: And this is why you want to hold him. And

1469
01:05:53,880 --> 01:05:55,920
Speaker 6: this is why I wrote in my article like they

1470
01:05:55,920 --> 01:05:58,000
Speaker 6: could be up soon. Don't cut him, let him on avent.

1471
01:05:58,080 --> 01:06:00,320
Speaker 6: We had people that were dicey. They were like, should

1472
01:06:00,320 --> 01:06:01,160
Speaker 6: they get rid of holiday?

1473
01:06:01,240 --> 01:06:03,040
Speaker 5: He's not up. No, you hold on to him.

1474
01:06:03,480 --> 01:06:06,160
Speaker 6: I hope it works out. There's chances it won't. But

1475
01:06:06,240 --> 01:06:09,200
Speaker 6: this is a great offense. It's offense that's built around

1476
01:06:09,200 --> 01:06:11,439
Speaker 6: not striking out a bunch. There's a bunch of power

1477
01:06:11,520 --> 01:06:13,160
Speaker 6: bats are going to be hitting in front of him.

1478
01:06:13,400 --> 01:06:16,920
Speaker 6: He's gonna get on Basically, he is built around getting

1479
01:06:17,000 --> 01:06:19,800
Speaker 6: on base. The guy walked over a hundred times last year.

1480
01:06:20,240 --> 01:06:24,720
Speaker 6: I really do truly believe in Jackson Holiday, and I'm

1481
01:06:24,760 --> 01:06:27,720
Speaker 6: gonna fight through some of the struggles early on. We've

1482
01:06:27,760 --> 01:06:30,000
Speaker 6: seen some rookies have some struggles. Langford's having, you know,

1483
01:06:30,160 --> 01:06:33,280
Speaker 6: struggle is Carter had some early struggles. I think Holiday

1484
01:06:33,360 --> 01:06:35,240
Speaker 6: is gonna be fine, and I think he's gonna thrive.

1485
01:06:35,440 --> 01:06:38,760
Speaker 6: He can hit lefties, He's gonna multiposition eligibility to top

1486
01:06:38,800 --> 01:06:39,320
Speaker 6: seventy five.

1487
01:06:39,360 --> 01:06:39,560
Speaker 2: Guy.

1488
01:06:40,040 --> 01:06:42,200
Speaker 1: He's not gonna have the power of like a Langford

1489
01:06:42,320 --> 01:06:44,080
Speaker 1: or a Turio, but I do think the power is

1490
01:06:44,120 --> 01:06:46,360
Speaker 1: a little underrated. He yoked up a lot in the

1491
01:06:46,600 --> 01:06:49,600
Speaker 1: off season. He's still again, he just turned twenty like

1492
01:06:49,680 --> 01:06:52,880
Speaker 1: four months ago. Like, there is definitely room to grow

1493
01:06:53,000 --> 01:06:56,400
Speaker 1: and get even stronger, literally stronger.

1494
01:06:56,320 --> 01:06:57,320
Speaker 2: You know, in that power area.

1495
01:06:57,480 --> 01:07:00,960
Speaker 1: Mayor given the type of profile that we're talking about here,

1496
01:07:01,280 --> 01:07:04,120
Speaker 1: a guy where there's a reasonable expectation for batting average,

1497
01:07:04,200 --> 01:07:07,920
Speaker 1: there is some speed, definitely an on base guy, but there,

1498
01:07:07,960 --> 01:07:09,520
Speaker 1: you know, we don't know what the power is going

1499
01:07:09,560 --> 01:07:11,920
Speaker 1: to look like right away. He is batting ninth in

1500
01:07:11,960 --> 01:07:14,840
Speaker 1: his debut tonight, which again we're recording this segment a

1501
01:07:14,920 --> 01:07:16,919
Speaker 1: day early, so we have not seen the debut yet.

1502
01:07:16,920 --> 01:07:19,440
Speaker 1: He's batting ninth. I would expect him to move up,

1503
01:07:19,800 --> 01:07:21,640
Speaker 1: you know, over the course of time. It's just a

1504
01:07:21,720 --> 01:07:23,800
Speaker 1: it's a good lineup and be you know, hits his

1505
01:07:23,840 --> 01:07:25,200
Speaker 1: first game and they're not. They don't want to throw

1506
01:07:25,240 --> 01:07:27,880
Speaker 1: too much at him all at once, but give them

1507
01:07:27,880 --> 01:07:30,480
Speaker 1: what we're kind of describing, mayor is there maybe a

1508
01:07:30,480 --> 01:07:32,960
Speaker 1: format like, oh, he's gonna be better in points because

1509
01:07:33,000 --> 01:07:35,040
Speaker 1: he's not going to strike out a lot, or you know,

1510
01:07:35,160 --> 01:07:37,880
Speaker 1: in in categories because batting average is hard to find.

1511
01:07:38,000 --> 01:07:39,959
Speaker 1: Is there like sort of a format that you would

1512
01:07:40,000 --> 01:07:42,800
Speaker 1: be maybe more intrigued in adding him in than others.

1513
01:07:43,280 --> 01:07:45,200
Speaker 3: Well, I'll definitely be interested in adding him everywhere.

1514
01:07:45,280 --> 01:07:47,360
Speaker 4: But I think the common consensus is that points is

1515
01:07:47,360 --> 01:07:49,200
Speaker 4: where he's going to have the most value, like right

1516
01:07:49,240 --> 01:07:52,320
Speaker 4: off the bat, but and because of the walks and

1517
01:07:52,360 --> 01:07:53,800
Speaker 4: because of the strikeout. You know, he's not going to

1518
01:07:53,840 --> 01:07:57,520
Speaker 4: strike out a ton, We don't think, but I think

1519
01:07:57,520 --> 01:07:59,720
Speaker 4: points more. But I mean, like he's he has the

1520
01:07:59,760 --> 01:08:02,280
Speaker 4: kind of saying where you need to just roster him everywhere.

1521
01:08:02,320 --> 01:08:04,240
Speaker 4: And it was kind of funny you know, in slack

1522
01:08:04,480 --> 01:08:07,280
Speaker 4: looking at our you know, one of our Slack channels

1523
01:08:07,320 --> 01:08:09,520
Speaker 4: last night and where we have kind of two different

1524
01:08:09,920 --> 01:08:10,560
Speaker 4: Fantasy Bros.

1525
01:08:10,600 --> 01:08:13,680
Speaker 3: Baseball leagues, and I think you're you're in the one league.

1526
01:08:13,720 --> 01:08:15,600
Speaker 4: And then everyone was kind of and it's it's a

1527
01:08:15,600 --> 01:08:18,280
Speaker 4: little bit shallower in terms of like smaller rosters, so

1528
01:08:18,360 --> 01:08:20,400
Speaker 4: like you can't roster everyone and just dash them because

1529
01:08:20,400 --> 01:08:22,760
Speaker 4: we have very small rosters and you know, only some

1530
01:08:22,920 --> 01:08:25,160
Speaker 4: like three or four bench spots. And I think your

1531
01:08:25,240 --> 01:08:28,800
Speaker 4: league was like scrambling and fighting with ESPN to like

1532
01:08:28,840 --> 01:08:31,280
Speaker 4: pick Jackson Holiday up. And I was like, why is

1533
01:08:31,320 --> 01:08:33,479
Speaker 4: everyone you know rushing to pick Jackson Holiday up? He's

1534
01:08:33,560 --> 01:08:35,599
Speaker 4: he's been rostered in our league, you know the entire time.

1535
01:08:35,600 --> 01:08:37,400
Speaker 4: What are you guys doing over there in your league?

1536
01:08:37,439 --> 01:08:40,400
Speaker 1: He was drafted in ours and then dropped because again,

1537
01:08:40,439 --> 01:08:42,240
Speaker 1: you only have three bench spots in this league and

1538
01:08:42,240 --> 01:08:44,280
Speaker 1: it's daily lineups, so you like you kind of have

1539
01:08:44,320 --> 01:08:47,000
Speaker 1: to drop people to get pitchers in there. And the

1540
01:08:47,400 --> 01:08:49,959
Speaker 1: nature of the league is that there are good players available.

1541
01:08:50,040 --> 01:08:52,280
Speaker 5: So I get invited, by the way, I didn't get

1542
01:08:52,280 --> 01:08:54,760
Speaker 5: any invited. These fantasies are Fantasy pros leagues.

1543
01:08:55,000 --> 01:08:56,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, these are.

1544
01:08:56,479 --> 01:08:59,920
Speaker 1: You were definitely have the option and uh these were

1545
01:09:00,200 --> 01:09:01,920
Speaker 1: uh these were posted in our slack channel.

1546
01:09:01,920 --> 01:09:03,639
Speaker 2: But you'll get it. I actually want it my first

1547
01:09:03,680 --> 01:09:05,240
Speaker 2: year not to BRAC so we'll get you in.

1548
01:09:05,720 --> 01:09:07,120
Speaker 6: I guess I had a demotion. I guess I'm the

1549
01:09:07,200 --> 01:09:08,800
Speaker 6: Jackson Holiday of this league because I.

1550
01:09:08,800 --> 01:09:13,800
Speaker 1: Got Yes, you were divided devoted for now welse you kind.

1551
01:09:13,720 --> 01:09:15,519
Speaker 3: Of really high ceiling though you have a really high

1552
01:09:15,560 --> 01:09:16,080
Speaker 3: ceiling one.

1553
01:09:16,200 --> 01:09:16,840
Speaker 2: Yeah I like that.

1554
01:09:17,360 --> 01:09:17,559
Speaker 5: Yeah?

1555
01:09:17,960 --> 01:09:21,200
Speaker 2: Not do you touched on Welsh?

1556
01:09:21,320 --> 01:09:23,720
Speaker 1: The kind of a bit of a comp of like

1557
01:09:23,760 --> 01:09:26,519
Speaker 1: a rookie Bobby Wit but with higher batting average? Is

1558
01:09:26,560 --> 01:09:28,760
Speaker 1: there a long term comp that you would put on

1559
01:09:28,840 --> 01:09:30,760
Speaker 1: Jackson Holiday, like if you were sit to sit down

1560
01:09:30,760 --> 01:09:33,040
Speaker 1: and describe the player. I know comps are kind of

1561
01:09:33,040 --> 01:09:35,160
Speaker 1: tricky because no two guys are the same, and particularly

1562
01:09:35,200 --> 01:09:38,280
Speaker 1: in baseball, development is so nonlinear at times.

1563
01:09:38,320 --> 01:09:39,519
Speaker 2: But is there a guy that you know?

1564
01:09:40,120 --> 01:09:42,800
Speaker 1: When you watch Jackson Holiday or think about the player

1565
01:09:42,800 --> 01:09:46,479
Speaker 1: he's going to become, you are reminded of X player.

1566
01:09:46,800 --> 01:09:50,160
Speaker 6: I wish I had a singular player I can think of.

1567
01:09:50,920 --> 01:09:52,960
Speaker 6: I mean, it's kind of coming back to Bobby Wit,

1568
01:09:53,120 --> 01:09:55,240
Speaker 6: like Bob Bob, Bobby Whitt has taken another step. You

1569
01:09:55,320 --> 01:09:57,120
Speaker 6: saw the power and the speed take another step. His

1570
01:09:57,240 --> 01:09:59,760
Speaker 6: batting average is taking another step. Here's the problem, though,

1571
01:09:59,840 --> 01:10:01,720
Speaker 6: is like, I just think he's going to be like

1572
01:10:01,840 --> 01:10:05,760
Speaker 6: a better hitter. You know what it actually might be.

1573
01:10:05,960 --> 01:10:08,439
Speaker 6: I'm watching him right now. I might be making too

1574
01:10:08,520 --> 01:10:12,080
Speaker 6: much about this, and maybe I feel like it's been

1575
01:10:12,160 --> 01:10:14,280
Speaker 6: undersold in a lot of markets and maybe I'm over

1576
01:10:14,360 --> 01:10:17,120
Speaker 6: selling it. But I happened as we're recording this to

1577
01:10:17,120 --> 01:10:19,559
Speaker 6: be watching Corbyn Carrol at that and like, I wouldn't

1578
01:10:19,560 --> 01:10:21,840
Speaker 6: be surprised to see him somebody like that. I think

1579
01:10:21,880 --> 01:10:24,800
Speaker 6: he'd be really aggressive on the base paths. But again,

1580
01:10:24,880 --> 01:10:28,639
Speaker 6: it's like, give me or build me a player that

1581
01:10:28,920 --> 01:10:31,080
Speaker 6: in a couple of years is going to hit three hundred.

1582
01:10:31,720 --> 01:10:34,120
Speaker 6: Give me that player that's gonna have twenty plus homer

1583
01:10:34,120 --> 01:10:37,120
Speaker 6: in power, thirty plus stolen bases, and I think it's

1584
01:10:37,160 --> 01:10:39,400
Speaker 6: gonna hit near the tippy top of the lineup. I

1585
01:10:39,439 --> 01:10:42,040
Speaker 6: actually think he would be prototypical number two. Go Gunner,

1586
01:10:42,560 --> 01:10:45,640
Speaker 6: Jackson Holiday and then Adley.

1587
01:10:46,040 --> 01:10:47,760
Speaker 5: Or maybe switch it up. How about this.

1588
01:10:47,920 --> 01:10:50,599
Speaker 6: You know, Gunner's hard hit numbers I think are really improving.

1589
01:10:51,439 --> 01:10:54,040
Speaker 6: I'd like to see Jackson Holiday lead off for this

1590
01:10:54,080 --> 01:10:57,120
Speaker 6: team in the future and then go Adlee and Gunner

1591
01:10:57,200 --> 01:10:58,720
Speaker 6: hitting three. I think that's the way to go. So

1592
01:10:59,120 --> 01:11:01,280
Speaker 6: I'm saying like this is guy that can score one

1593
01:11:01,400 --> 01:11:03,040
Speaker 6: hundred runs, blah blah blah.

1594
01:11:03,080 --> 01:11:04,200
Speaker 5: I don't know, you want to know. It came to

1595
01:11:04,240 --> 01:11:04,519
Speaker 5: my mind.

1596
01:11:04,520 --> 01:11:06,280
Speaker 6: I hate to say it like Mookie Bets, like the

1597
01:11:06,360 --> 01:11:09,120
Speaker 6: Mookie Bets type of hitter, Like it's too dramatic. I

1598
01:11:09,160 --> 01:11:11,960
Speaker 6: think throwing comps on is too scary right now. But

1599
01:11:12,080 --> 01:11:14,120
Speaker 6: I do see him to be a high batting average

1600
01:11:14,560 --> 01:11:18,080
Speaker 6: better than whoever you guys think. Not you specifically weren't,

1601
01:11:18,080 --> 01:11:20,120
Speaker 6: but how most people think in power. I think he's

1602
01:11:20,120 --> 01:11:22,880
Speaker 6: gonna steal more like I felt about Corbyn Carroll. I

1603
01:11:22,880 --> 01:11:26,080
Speaker 6: felt Corby Carroll's projections in his first year every system

1604
01:11:26,120 --> 01:11:29,519
Speaker 6: was like sixteen stolen bases and I laughed and I'm

1605
01:11:29,520 --> 01:11:32,280
Speaker 6: never I'm not a big like everything is wrong. I

1606
01:11:32,360 --> 01:11:35,040
Speaker 6: was like, this is wrong, this is one hundred percent wrong.

1607
01:11:35,479 --> 01:11:38,480
Speaker 6: I think holiday's the same way. Last time I looked

1608
01:11:39,200 --> 01:11:42,920
Speaker 6: look at this, the bat x seven homers, nine stolen

1609
01:11:42,960 --> 01:11:48,400
Speaker 6: bases in ninety nine games. ATC has eleven stolen bases.

1610
01:11:48,560 --> 01:11:50,680
Speaker 6: I don't know what I would do, guys, but if

1611
01:11:50,720 --> 01:11:53,080
Speaker 6: he has less than twenty and he plays one hundred

1612
01:11:53,120 --> 01:11:55,439
Speaker 6: plus games this year, like I'm not gonna shave my head.

1613
01:11:55,479 --> 01:11:57,679
Speaker 6: But I'm saying, like I'd shave my head. There's zero

1614
01:11:57,880 --> 01:12:00,280
Speaker 6: chance in my money is less than twenty l in

1615
01:12:00,360 --> 01:12:03,000
Speaker 6: bases if he plays a relatively full season. That's how

1616
01:12:03,000 --> 01:12:03,840
Speaker 6: confident I feel.

1617
01:12:04,400 --> 01:12:06,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, he played one hundred and twenty five

1618
01:12:06,160 --> 01:12:08,679
Speaker 1: games last season the minors, and he had twenty four

1619
01:12:08,720 --> 01:12:13,080
Speaker 1: stolen bases. I would expect, you know, I would expect

1620
01:12:13,080 --> 01:12:13,800
Speaker 1: a similar rate.

1621
01:12:14,320 --> 01:12:16,599
Speaker 6: Baltimore likes to run. They like to run. They support

1622
01:12:16,600 --> 01:12:18,679
Speaker 6: the players running. If he's gonna also hit lower parts

1623
01:12:18,680 --> 01:12:21,479
Speaker 6: of the lineup, they're gonna move him. I just like,

1624
01:12:21,760 --> 01:12:24,639
Speaker 6: I think this is gonna You're looking at a future

1625
01:12:24,760 --> 01:12:29,480
Speaker 6: top two round fantasy player, you know, with ninety percent outcome.

1626
01:12:30,400 --> 01:12:34,080
Speaker 1: Mayor are you obviously you know, if he's available anywhere,

1627
01:12:33,880 --> 01:12:36,760
Speaker 1: you're picking him up. Are you making trade offers for

1628
01:12:36,880 --> 01:12:39,839
Speaker 1: Holiday right now? Or if you have him, are you saying,

1629
01:12:39,960 --> 01:12:42,200
Speaker 1: as Welsh alluded to, like this is the time when

1630
01:12:42,240 --> 01:12:44,799
Speaker 1: people are most excited and you can maybe get a steal.

1631
01:12:45,240 --> 01:12:45,840
Speaker 2: Is there a god.

1632
01:12:45,760 --> 01:12:49,240
Speaker 6: Dynasty way for I mean, dynasty redraft is very different.

1633
01:12:49,240 --> 01:12:49,439
Speaker 2: Though.

1634
01:12:49,479 --> 01:12:52,200
Speaker 6: My perception of how aggressive I would be on Jackson

1635
01:12:52,240 --> 01:12:55,040
Speaker 6: Holiday in redraft is not the same as dynasty. The

1636
01:12:55,040 --> 01:12:58,800
Speaker 6: way I'm talking is dynasty stuff redraft. I still like him,

1637
01:12:59,120 --> 01:13:01,320
Speaker 6: but I bet you he cost more than a top

1638
01:13:01,360 --> 01:13:03,599
Speaker 6: seventy five player to try to trade for him right now?

1639
01:13:03,720 --> 01:13:04,599
Speaker 5: Can you even trade?

1640
01:13:04,640 --> 01:13:07,759
Speaker 6: Would you even consider a top one hundred to trade

1641
01:13:07,840 --> 01:13:09,639
Speaker 6: for Jackson Holiday?

1642
01:13:09,640 --> 01:13:09,880
Speaker 3: Mayor?

1643
01:13:10,880 --> 01:13:12,600
Speaker 4: Well, that was kind of when I was going to

1644
01:13:12,680 --> 01:13:14,639
Speaker 4: kind of flip around on you, because you talked about

1645
01:13:14,680 --> 01:13:16,720
Speaker 4: this a little bit earlier on leading Off and kind

1646
01:13:16,760 --> 01:13:18,800
Speaker 4: of like selling high on Jackson Holliday. And I've been

1647
01:13:18,800 --> 01:13:21,280
Speaker 4: really thinking about that all day of like what if

1648
01:13:21,280 --> 01:13:23,240
Speaker 4: I'm the Jackson Holiday manager? I you know, I either

1649
01:13:23,320 --> 01:13:25,040
Speaker 4: drafted him or picked it him, picked him up early,

1650
01:13:25,400 --> 01:13:27,080
Speaker 4: and I've been waiting for this day and I'm.

1651
01:13:26,920 --> 01:13:29,960
Speaker 3: Excited for this day. But what would a sell high

1652
01:13:30,000 --> 01:13:33,200
Speaker 3: offer have to look like for me to give up

1653
01:13:33,280 --> 01:13:38,320
Speaker 3: Jackson Holiday? And like it's probably like you're probably.

1654
01:13:38,400 --> 01:13:39,880
Speaker 4: Like I said, really want to hold on too him

1655
01:13:39,920 --> 01:13:42,120
Speaker 4: because you drafted him and this is exactly what you've

1656
01:13:42,160 --> 01:13:44,360
Speaker 4: been waiting for. But you also maybe you're the manager

1657
01:13:44,400 --> 01:13:47,080
Speaker 4: who drafted Spencer Strider or Shane Bieber and you really

1658
01:13:47,080 --> 01:13:49,240
Speaker 4: need a pitcher, And would Zach Wheeler, what if you're

1659
01:13:49,240 --> 01:13:52,639
Speaker 4: the Spencer Strider manager and you need pitching, and Zach

1660
01:13:52,680 --> 01:13:53,479
Speaker 4: Wheeler is offered.

1661
01:13:53,560 --> 01:13:56,280
Speaker 3: Is is Zach Wheeler someone that you would pull the

1662
01:13:56,280 --> 01:13:58,000
Speaker 3: trigger on in a trade for Jackson Holliday?

1663
01:13:58,400 --> 01:13:58,879
Speaker 5: Heartbeat?

1664
01:13:59,360 --> 01:14:03,400
Speaker 6: I'm Mississippi minute instantly, I would do that. Somebody made

1665
01:14:03,439 --> 01:14:07,720
Speaker 6: a again, this is redraft. You're saying redraft. You had

1666
01:14:07,760 --> 01:14:09,760
Speaker 6: said the or someone in the chat had said, oh,

1667
01:14:09,800 --> 01:14:12,759
Speaker 6: I already got an offer O'Neil Cruz for Jackson Holiday.

1668
01:14:13,240 --> 01:14:16,880
Speaker 6: I do it absolutely like those are to me, those

1669
01:14:16,880 --> 01:14:20,400
Speaker 6: are no brainers. George Kirby would be interesting. Kirby's been

1670
01:14:20,439 --> 01:14:22,600
Speaker 6: kind of stinking and struggling. I don't know anybody does it.

1671
01:14:22,680 --> 01:14:25,559
Speaker 6: I don't think anybody offers Zach Wheeler for him.

1672
01:14:25,960 --> 01:14:26,400
Speaker 5: I don't think.

1673
01:14:26,479 --> 01:14:29,559
Speaker 6: I don't think those happened. But like where, I don't

1674
01:14:29,600 --> 01:14:32,960
Speaker 6: need to ask a question. Those are instant accepts. I

1675
01:14:32,960 --> 01:14:37,120
Speaker 6: think when you start getting into like it's a little

1676
01:14:37,120 --> 01:14:38,719
Speaker 6: bit tough, like Andres Jimenez.

1677
01:14:38,720 --> 01:14:39,639
Speaker 5: I don't know why you would.

1678
01:14:39,439 --> 01:14:42,120
Speaker 6: Trade like even for even, But like Andres Jimenez, they

1679
01:14:42,200 --> 01:14:44,040
Speaker 6: might be the same player. If you got what you

1680
01:14:44,080 --> 01:14:46,559
Speaker 6: project out of Andre's minutes out of Jackson Holiday, that's

1681
01:14:46,600 --> 01:14:48,960
Speaker 6: actually a plus, you know what. I'm kind of projecting

1682
01:14:49,040 --> 01:14:52,080
Speaker 6: Jackson Holiday like andres A Mintz, except it's in a

1683
01:14:52,120 --> 01:14:54,519
Speaker 6: better offense. If you think about power speed, what I'm

1684
01:14:54,680 --> 01:14:56,920
Speaker 6: seeing out of him like that would make sense. But

1685
01:14:57,160 --> 01:14:59,519
Speaker 6: why like what I want to do a lateral move

1686
01:14:59,600 --> 01:15:02,519
Speaker 6: like that? It makes a lot more sense for somebody

1687
01:15:02,520 --> 01:15:05,479
Speaker 6: that wants to trade some you know, good outfield piece.

1688
01:15:05,560 --> 01:15:07,559
Speaker 6: You know, Nick Casiano would be a really interesting one

1689
01:15:07,600 --> 01:15:09,400
Speaker 6: that was like a top one hundred outfielder who's really

1690
01:15:09,400 --> 01:15:14,000
Speaker 6: struggled if you know you're trading positionally, but trading out

1691
01:15:14,000 --> 01:15:16,080
Speaker 6: of position makes the most sense. I think pitching makes

1692
01:15:16,080 --> 01:15:19,080
Speaker 6: a ton of sense if you could get in by

1693
01:15:19,160 --> 01:15:21,120
Speaker 6: low on the Castillo's, the Kirby's, the Wheelers. I just

1694
01:15:21,120 --> 01:15:22,920
Speaker 6: don't think those are out there. I think people are

1695
01:15:22,920 --> 01:15:25,240
Speaker 6: going to be offering, maybe Bobby Miller after this start,

1696
01:15:25,320 --> 01:15:26,679
Speaker 6: they're offering, and those are still.

1697
01:15:26,520 --> 01:15:28,120
Speaker 4: I was going to I was going to ask if

1698
01:15:28,479 --> 01:15:30,280
Speaker 4: Bobby Miller. I was just looking at the names of

1699
01:15:30,280 --> 01:15:32,439
Speaker 4: pitchers when you were kind of talking. Bobby Miller was

1700
01:15:32,520 --> 01:15:34,160
Speaker 4: kind of the name I stopped at of like, that's

1701
01:15:34,160 --> 01:15:37,840
Speaker 4: probably the threshold if I had to guess.

1702
01:15:37,680 --> 01:15:39,400
Speaker 1: I want to I want to wrap the conversation with

1703
01:15:39,479 --> 01:15:43,439
Speaker 1: a bit of Dynasty focus as well, And so what

1704
01:15:43,520 --> 01:15:46,640
Speaker 1: about like a Zach Wheeler for Holiday in Dynasty? If

1705
01:15:46,640 --> 01:15:48,879
Speaker 1: you're the win if you are a win Now manager

1706
01:15:49,240 --> 01:15:53,160
Speaker 1: and you have lost a Strider or any other number.

1707
01:15:52,920 --> 01:15:56,040
Speaker 2: Of pitchers this season and.

1708
01:15:56,400 --> 01:15:58,479
Speaker 1: You you have a need, would you be willing to

1709
01:15:58,560 --> 01:16:02,320
Speaker 1: part with the Jackson Holiday in Dynasty for a true

1710
01:16:02,320 --> 01:16:05,559
Speaker 1: fantasy ace or what would it take in Dynasty for

1711
01:16:05,600 --> 01:16:07,719
Speaker 1: you to move? And where do you even have Holiday

1712
01:16:07,760 --> 01:16:09,240
Speaker 1: ranked in Dynasty?

1713
01:16:09,280 --> 01:16:09,880
Speaker 2: Going forward?

1714
01:16:10,720 --> 01:16:11,440
Speaker 5: In Dynasty?

1715
01:16:11,479 --> 01:16:14,599
Speaker 6: I have Holiday top twenty five, So no, I would

1716
01:16:14,600 --> 01:16:16,960
Speaker 6: not trade a thirty plus year old or trade four

1717
01:16:16,960 --> 01:16:18,280
Speaker 6: to thirty plus year old hit her.

1718
01:16:18,560 --> 01:16:20,200
Speaker 2: And to be clear, I do agree with that. I

1719
01:16:20,200 --> 01:16:21,120
Speaker 2: think that's the right answer.

1720
01:16:21,160 --> 01:16:22,840
Speaker 6: But I was, Yeah, we had a question on leading

1721
01:16:22,840 --> 01:16:25,120
Speaker 6: off that came up where someone was and I think

1722
01:16:25,120 --> 01:16:26,800
Speaker 6: I might have I don't know where I mentioned this,

1723
01:16:26,880 --> 01:16:30,080
Speaker 6: but they had said like, oh, hey, it's only three

1724
01:16:30,160 --> 01:16:33,439
Speaker 6: keepers and my keepers are Gunner. And then it was

1725
01:16:33,479 --> 01:16:36,280
Speaker 6: like Julio and Wit you know, some ridiculous thing, and

1726
01:16:36,320 --> 01:16:38,200
Speaker 6: Gunner was the third and he's like, I just got

1727
01:16:38,200 --> 01:16:42,360
Speaker 6: an offer for my holiday to get Trek Skubele And

1728
01:16:42,479 --> 01:16:45,160
Speaker 6: I was like, you know, normally in Dynasty, i'd say no,

1729
01:16:45,320 --> 01:16:48,960
Speaker 6: But this is a different keeping format where Gunner and

1730
01:16:49,080 --> 01:16:52,360
Speaker 6: Jackson Holiday might be a really tough keeper option. So

1731
01:16:52,640 --> 01:16:54,920
Speaker 6: if you can improve your team this year by getting

1732
01:16:54,920 --> 01:16:57,240
Speaker 6: an ace, I would do that in that respect.

1733
01:16:57,280 --> 01:16:59,720
Speaker 5: In a full Dynasty. No, I just couldn't do that.

1734
01:16:59,800 --> 01:17:00,280
Speaker 1: I don't.

1735
01:17:00,320 --> 01:17:02,840
Speaker 6: I be honest with you, I don't know I would

1736
01:17:02,840 --> 01:17:06,080
Speaker 6: trade Jackson Oalley for any picture in baseball right now,

1737
01:17:06,080 --> 01:17:08,439
Speaker 6: because the top two are hurt and they're down, and

1738
01:17:09,120 --> 01:17:11,639
Speaker 6: we might have the news of Stryder having to Strider's

1739
01:17:11,640 --> 01:17:14,080
Speaker 6: having Tommy John like he's already gone and see the doctor.

1740
01:17:14,240 --> 01:17:17,120
Speaker 6: The rumors out there are that he's having it and

1741
01:17:17,160 --> 01:17:19,280
Speaker 6: then they're just gonna announce it once he's done and

1742
01:17:19,320 --> 01:17:20,360
Speaker 6: it's gone successful.

1743
01:17:21,080 --> 01:17:22,600
Speaker 5: That might not be true, but we'll see. That's what

1744
01:17:22,600 --> 01:17:25,040
Speaker 5: I've heard. Yeah, But like, why why.

1745
01:17:24,840 --> 01:17:27,160
Speaker 6: Would I trade this young here, even in a win

1746
01:17:27,320 --> 01:17:29,479
Speaker 6: now mode? I just don't see how I could do

1747
01:17:29,479 --> 01:17:32,200
Speaker 6: it for any singular picture. But that will happen. You

1748
01:17:32,280 --> 01:17:34,680
Speaker 6: will see Jackson Holliday and Dynasty get moved for like

1749
01:17:34,840 --> 01:17:37,720
Speaker 6: Tyler Glass now after striking out fourteen, or you'll see

1750
01:17:37,760 --> 01:17:39,320
Speaker 6: it maybe even for Cole Reagan's.

1751
01:17:39,600 --> 01:17:40,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, maybe those are okay.

1752
01:17:41,040 --> 01:17:44,040
Speaker 6: But like, if we've learned anything in Dynasty, look at

1753
01:17:44,040 --> 01:17:46,960
Speaker 6: all the pictures, look at Spencer Strider. Spencer Strider's hurt

1754
01:17:47,000 --> 01:17:49,320
Speaker 6: right now, and the Tommy John could happen.

1755
01:17:49,360 --> 01:17:51,720
Speaker 5: That's the best picture in baseball. And he's down.

1756
01:17:51,880 --> 01:17:54,639
Speaker 6: And Shane McClanahan was like my number one two years

1757
01:17:54,680 --> 01:17:57,880
Speaker 6: ago and he's down. So I would have to like

1758
01:17:57,960 --> 01:18:00,519
Speaker 6: really be blown away to move off of that asset

1759
01:18:00,600 --> 01:18:03,559
Speaker 6: to win now where I know it would never happen,

1760
01:18:03,640 --> 01:18:06,679
Speaker 6: But I would need like a tyler glass now and more.

1761
01:18:06,880 --> 01:18:09,120
Speaker 6: I would need two pieces that helped me so well

1762
01:18:09,120 --> 01:18:12,439
Speaker 6: that I'm willing to mortgage the future because again, I

1763
01:18:12,479 --> 01:18:15,400
Speaker 6: personally think Jackson Hollyday. I don't want to talk about

1764
01:18:15,400 --> 01:18:17,880
Speaker 6: all prospects like this. It's very dangerous to do this

1765
01:18:17,920 --> 01:18:21,080
Speaker 6: because then it's like, oh my god. But Corbyn Carroll

1766
01:18:21,120 --> 01:18:24,000
Speaker 6: started somewhere, Ronald Acunye started somewhere. These guys start in

1767
01:18:24,080 --> 01:18:25,880
Speaker 6: these places where it's like, well, I don't know if

1768
01:18:25,920 --> 01:18:26,760
Speaker 6: they can really work out.

1769
01:18:26,880 --> 01:18:28,720
Speaker 5: I personally believe that Jackson.

1770
01:18:28,360 --> 01:18:32,040
Speaker 6: Holiday can be a high high end fantasy option because

1771
01:18:32,120 --> 01:18:35,160
Speaker 6: his floor for his ability to make contact, to not

1772
01:18:35,200 --> 01:18:39,840
Speaker 6: strike out, to walk, to run, He's gonna build more power.

1773
01:18:39,840 --> 01:18:42,360
Speaker 5: He hits the ball really hard baseball fan, I.

1774
01:18:42,360 --> 01:18:45,120
Speaker 6: Believe he's a high So I don't want to mortgage

1775
01:18:45,160 --> 01:18:47,800
Speaker 6: the future and just give him away just because it

1776
01:18:48,080 --> 01:18:51,320
Speaker 6: makes me better. I gotta know that I'm going to

1777
01:18:51,400 --> 01:18:53,519
Speaker 6: win now, and that's why it would be a trade

1778
01:18:53,520 --> 01:18:59,120
Speaker 6: that probably doesn't make sense in dynasty, but in redraft, yeah, man.

1779
01:19:00,200 --> 01:19:01,439
Speaker 5: And stuff, it makes me win now.

1780
01:19:01,520 --> 01:19:05,440
Speaker 6: I want to win now in redraft and rookies providing

1781
01:19:06,360 --> 01:19:09,439
Speaker 6: like their upper value are few and far between. Corvin

1782
01:19:09,479 --> 01:19:12,160
Speaker 6: Carroll broke the mold last year. Jackson could break the mold.

1783
01:19:12,400 --> 01:19:14,759
Speaker 6: But if you can go and get some ridiculous return

1784
01:19:14,800 --> 01:19:17,400
Speaker 6: where we're like, oh yeah, Wheeler, sure I'll do that,

1785
01:19:17,960 --> 01:19:19,559
Speaker 6: then yeah, that's where I'm gonna pull the trigger.

1786
01:19:20,200 --> 01:19:22,280
Speaker 1: It makes me when you're talking about not shading for

1787
01:19:22,320 --> 01:19:24,400
Speaker 1: any pitcher, it makes me think about like running backs

1788
01:19:24,400 --> 01:19:26,920
Speaker 1: in fantasy football dynasty, where it's like if you have

1789
01:19:26,960 --> 01:19:29,759
Speaker 1: like Marvin Harrison Junior, for example, it's like there's basically

1790
01:19:29,800 --> 01:19:31,519
Speaker 1: no running back you would trade him for because this

1791
01:19:31,600 --> 01:19:33,599
Speaker 1: position is just it's it's the position that you really

1792
01:19:33,600 --> 01:19:34,879
Speaker 1: want to get right, but it's so volatile.

1793
01:19:35,120 --> 01:19:36,719
Speaker 6: It's such a great way to put it too because

1794
01:19:36,800 --> 01:19:39,800
Speaker 6: like listen, there are there could be seventy one hundred

1795
01:19:39,800 --> 01:19:42,720
Speaker 6: players for the next two years that could improve your

1796
01:19:42,760 --> 01:19:45,000
Speaker 6: team and make your team better than a Jackson Holiday.

1797
01:19:45,200 --> 01:19:48,000
Speaker 6: This is a risk rookies or risks, prospects are risk.

1798
01:19:48,280 --> 01:19:51,719
Speaker 6: The better set better approach in Dynasty is always putting

1799
01:19:51,720 --> 01:19:54,600
Speaker 6: a focus on winning now. But there are times I

1800
01:19:54,640 --> 01:19:57,559
Speaker 6: think that are worth putting your foot down, and like

1801
01:19:57,760 --> 01:20:00,360
Speaker 6: I think Jackson Holiday is a put your foot down

1802
01:20:00,439 --> 01:20:02,799
Speaker 6: type of player, to wait it out, see where it goes,

1803
01:20:02,840 --> 01:20:06,000
Speaker 6: and take the risk unless somebody is going to blow

1804
01:20:06,040 --> 01:20:08,880
Speaker 6: your freaking socks off, you know, lind Or who's been

1805
01:20:08,920 --> 01:20:12,680
Speaker 6: struggling versus Jackson Holiday is interesting even in Dynasty. But

1806
01:20:12,760 --> 01:20:15,280
Speaker 6: I probably would still go with Jackson Holiday even if

1807
01:20:15,280 --> 01:20:17,880
Speaker 6: I you know, even if lind Door might outproduce this

1808
01:20:17,960 --> 01:20:18,720
Speaker 6: season if he.

1809
01:20:18,720 --> 01:20:22,040
Speaker 2: Does, Mayor what are your quck thoughts on Holiday in Dynasty.

1810
01:20:22,200 --> 01:20:24,559
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm not moving him in Dynasty just because

1811
01:20:24,600 --> 01:20:26,240
Speaker 4: of what the ceiling is and what he could be

1812
01:20:26,360 --> 01:20:29,000
Speaker 4: and if I had him, you know, I probably spent

1813
01:20:29,120 --> 01:20:31,920
Speaker 4: a decent asset to get him, and I'm not, you know,

1814
01:20:32,439 --> 01:20:35,160
Speaker 4: even if I'm like I think we talked before, like

1815
01:20:35,240 --> 01:20:37,880
Speaker 4: I'm usually in like a more of a win now mode,

1816
01:20:37,920 --> 01:20:39,800
Speaker 4: like not like a mortgage in the future win now mode.

1817
01:20:39,800 --> 01:20:42,080
Speaker 4: But I try to always have like young players like

1818
01:20:42,439 --> 01:20:44,800
Speaker 4: ready to contribute, and I don't really ever sell or

1819
01:20:44,840 --> 01:20:47,640
Speaker 4: buy too hard. I just try to like stay competitive,

1820
01:20:48,120 --> 01:20:51,360
Speaker 4: and if I have Jackson Holliday, there's you know, there's

1821
01:20:51,400 --> 01:20:54,160
Speaker 4: almost no way I'm moving, regardless of the Welsh.

1822
01:20:54,280 --> 01:20:56,320
Speaker 2: Last question is not fantasy or later. I was going

1823
01:20:56,360 --> 01:20:57,040
Speaker 2: to get your opinion.

1824
01:20:57,080 --> 01:20:59,040
Speaker 1: As you know, I am a diehard Orioles fan, so

1825
01:20:59,240 --> 01:21:01,719
Speaker 1: this is something I think about a lot. How would

1826
01:21:01,760 --> 01:21:08,559
Speaker 1: you rank of all the guys Adley Gunner, Holliday, Grayson, Kowser, Kearstad, Mayo, Bisaio,

1827
01:21:08,840 --> 01:21:11,040
Speaker 1: whoever you want to include? How would you rank the

1828
01:21:11,040 --> 01:21:12,880
Speaker 1: guys in order of who you would most want the

1829
01:21:13,120 --> 01:21:14,400
Speaker 1: Like if you were an oil sand who you would

1830
01:21:14,400 --> 01:21:16,519
Speaker 1: most want them to extend to, like a ten year,

1831
01:21:16,600 --> 01:21:20,720
Speaker 1: three hundred million dollar contract, like the face of the franchise,

1832
01:21:21,040 --> 01:21:24,000
Speaker 1: but he's older. He's a catcher, you know, Grayson is

1833
01:21:24,040 --> 01:21:26,479
Speaker 1: really good but young, but he's a pitcher. How are

1834
01:21:26,479 --> 01:21:28,479
Speaker 1: you kind of ranking though, Like these are like the

1835
01:21:28,880 --> 01:21:31,680
Speaker 1: Cornerstone three hundred million dollar contract, like you want them

1836
01:21:31,720 --> 01:21:32,799
Speaker 1: extended if you're in Baltimore.

1837
01:21:32,840 --> 01:21:35,120
Speaker 6: You know it might be crazy, but uh, it's there's

1838
01:21:35,200 --> 01:21:38,200
Speaker 6: one person in their own tier, and it's Adley. Because

1839
01:21:38,680 --> 01:21:41,960
Speaker 6: Adley makes the pictures better. He is one of the

1840
01:21:42,000 --> 01:21:45,439
Speaker 6: great game callers. He makes your pictures better, he makes

1841
01:21:45,439 --> 01:21:48,080
Speaker 6: your offense better. He's a number two hitter, a switch hitter,

1842
01:21:48,120 --> 01:21:51,479
Speaker 6: a contact hitter. Again not a big strikeoukay walk Homer.

1843
01:21:51,880 --> 01:21:55,080
Speaker 6: I think Adley from a real baseball perspective, is the

1844
01:21:55,120 --> 01:21:57,160
Speaker 6: guy that is that is your team leader, that is

1845
01:21:57,200 --> 01:21:59,519
Speaker 6: your core. You build everything around him because guess what,

1846
01:21:59,640 --> 01:22:03,400
Speaker 6: Grace is better because of Adley. Whoever's hitting Gunner, if

1847
01:22:03,400 --> 01:22:05,760
Speaker 6: he hits three, he's better because Adley is hitting in

1848
01:22:05,760 --> 01:22:08,519
Speaker 6: front of him. Gunner's better because Adley hits behind him.

1849
01:22:08,600 --> 01:22:10,000
Speaker 6: It's Adley that's the top guy.

1850
01:22:10,400 --> 01:22:11,040
Speaker 5: Number two.

1851
01:22:13,000 --> 01:22:15,840
Speaker 6: It's probably, I mean, honestly, probably Jackson Holiday. I think

1852
01:22:15,920 --> 01:22:18,519
Speaker 6: Jackson Holiday will become the actual face. I think like

1853
01:22:18,920 --> 01:22:22,719
Speaker 6: Adley will be the smart man or the smart oriole

1854
01:22:22,760 --> 01:22:25,720
Speaker 6: Man's uh, you know, team leader, but Holidays are going

1855
01:22:25,760 --> 01:22:29,679
Speaker 6: to become like the face face and then probably like Grayson,

1856
01:22:29,880 --> 01:22:32,519
Speaker 6: Grayson is in that same tier with Holiday, maybe Gunner,

1857
01:22:32,800 --> 01:22:34,720
Speaker 6: and then you know, then then you're started getting into

1858
01:22:34,720 --> 01:22:37,560
Speaker 6: a lot more speculation. I think Cowser is wildly underrated

1859
01:22:37,560 --> 01:22:40,280
Speaker 6: and stuff like that. But like Kowser and Mayo and Basilo,

1860
01:22:40,439 --> 01:22:42,960
Speaker 6: but Besioh is actually not as valuable because he's probably

1861
01:22:43,000 --> 01:22:44,840
Speaker 6: gonna move off of Catcher and be more of a

1862
01:22:44,880 --> 01:22:46,760
Speaker 6: first basement but really good bat But yeah, I think

1863
01:22:46,760 --> 01:22:49,000
Speaker 6: it's Adley in his own tier, and then it's like

1864
01:22:49,120 --> 01:22:53,479
Speaker 6: Grayson or then Holiday maybe in his own tier, and

1865
01:22:53,520 --> 01:22:56,960
Speaker 6: then Gunner and uh, Grayson Rod.

1866
01:22:57,600 --> 01:22:59,800
Speaker 1: I've kind of had Gunner and Holiday. It's like really

1867
01:22:59,840 --> 01:23:02,200
Speaker 1: hard to kind of parse between the two. I mean, sure,

1868
01:23:02,760 --> 01:23:05,320
Speaker 1: we'll see what Holiday actually does here, you know, once

1869
01:23:05,360 --> 01:23:08,160
Speaker 1: he's actually but super super exciting. Obviously, I could do

1870
01:23:08,479 --> 01:23:12,040
Speaker 1: three hours on Jackson, Holiday and the Orioles, so we'll

1871
01:23:12,120 --> 01:23:13,800
Speaker 1: keep it to just about a half hour here. But

1872
01:23:13,840 --> 01:23:18,040
Speaker 1: I appreciate the extended segment here for Prospect Corner Welsh,

1873
01:23:17,680 --> 01:23:20,800
Speaker 1: you making the time and letting me kind of just

1874
01:23:20,840 --> 01:23:25,200
Speaker 1: gush about the yet another Orioles top prospect. He's getting

1875
01:23:25,240 --> 01:23:28,400
Speaker 1: the call, so I'm really excited for his debut tonight. Hopefully,

1876
01:23:28,720 --> 01:23:30,439
Speaker 1: when may Or and I record the rest of the

1877
01:23:30,479 --> 01:23:33,439
Speaker 1: show tomorrow, we can you know, rejoice in a very

1878
01:23:33,479 --> 01:23:35,920
Speaker 1: fun Orioles win. I know Mayor won't be bringing for that,

1879
01:23:36,000 --> 01:23:38,960
Speaker 1: of course, given who they're playing, but yeah, just a really,

1880
01:23:39,000 --> 01:23:40,519
Speaker 1: really exciting time to be an Orioles fan.

1881
01:23:40,640 --> 01:23:42,640
Speaker 2: So I am. I know I'm biased, but it's a

1882
01:23:42,640 --> 01:23:44,160
Speaker 2: good time to be biased because.

1883
01:23:44,080 --> 01:23:44,760
Speaker 5: I appreciate it.

1884
01:23:44,760 --> 01:23:47,280
Speaker 6: I appreciate it, guys, and you know, go number sevens

1885
01:23:47,920 --> 01:23:50,200
Speaker 6: So number seven there he is, Billy Ripkin.

1886
01:23:50,960 --> 01:23:52,479
Speaker 1: All right, we will be back for the rest of

1887
01:23:52,520 --> 01:23:56,040
Speaker 1: the show here in just a second. Thank you again

1888
01:23:56,080 --> 01:23:58,559
Speaker 1: to Welsh for joining us on this episode of the cycle.

1889
01:23:58,960 --> 01:24:01,479
Speaker 1: Mayor less wrap things up up here talking about what

1890
01:24:01,520 --> 01:24:04,280
Speaker 1: we're excited for this weekend and then diving into a

1891
01:24:04,360 --> 01:24:07,479
Speaker 1: two start picture competition. We'll start with the weekend excitement.

1892
01:24:07,560 --> 01:24:09,160
Speaker 1: Of course I will let.

1893
01:24:09,120 --> 01:24:09,759
Speaker 2: You go first.

1894
01:24:10,520 --> 01:24:14,200
Speaker 4: Of course, what a treat letting me go first. So

1895
01:24:15,640 --> 01:24:17,400
Speaker 4: as we as we talked about last week, we're probably

1896
01:24:17,439 --> 01:24:20,280
Speaker 4: gonna lean pitchure heavy just from like looking at the slate,

1897
01:24:21,680 --> 01:24:23,519
Speaker 4: you went first, grabbed a lot of good ones. So

1898
01:24:23,640 --> 01:24:27,000
Speaker 4: even though I'm talking first, you picked you picked names

1899
01:24:27,000 --> 01:24:29,000
Speaker 4: first because you got to the cheap first. But I

1900
01:24:29,000 --> 01:24:31,320
Speaker 4: do have some good ones I want to see kent

1901
01:24:31,400 --> 01:24:34,000
Speaker 4: to Mayeda versus the Twins, you know, revenge matchup versus

1902
01:24:34,000 --> 01:24:37,439
Speaker 4: the Twins. But also I'm interested because Kentameda hasn't looked

1903
01:24:37,439 --> 01:24:39,960
Speaker 4: great to start the season, and I kind of need

1904
01:24:40,040 --> 01:24:42,960
Speaker 4: him to be a lot better based on my fantasy rosters.

1905
01:24:43,400 --> 01:24:46,839
Speaker 4: And so one start was terrible, one start was not terrible,

1906
01:24:46,840 --> 01:24:48,840
Speaker 4: but could have been a lot better. So I'm really

1907
01:24:48,880 --> 01:24:52,040
Speaker 4: hoping the revenge narrative against the Twins helps him look

1908
01:24:52,040 --> 01:24:54,320
Speaker 4: a lot better. And actually, you know, get that era

1909
01:24:54,600 --> 01:24:57,880
Speaker 4: a little bit under nine. And I also want to

1910
01:24:57,880 --> 01:25:01,200
Speaker 4: see Charlie Morton versus Marlins and Zach Willier versus the

1911
01:25:01,200 --> 01:25:04,120
Speaker 4: Pirates because of our existing two star pitcher competition.

1912
01:25:04,800 --> 01:25:07,479
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, just to remind everybody who might

1913
01:25:07,479 --> 01:25:10,439
Speaker 1: have forgotten last week, we are doing a two start

1914
01:25:10,439 --> 01:25:13,200
Speaker 1: pitcher competition throughout the year, and you can only you

1915
01:25:13,240 --> 01:25:15,720
Speaker 1: can pick whoever you want. There's no roster stipulations, but

1916
01:25:15,760 --> 01:25:17,920
Speaker 1: you can only pick them once. So last week I

1917
01:25:17,960 --> 01:25:21,519
Speaker 1: picked Zach Wheeler and mayor picked Charlie Morton. Of course,

1918
01:25:21,800 --> 01:25:24,200
Speaker 1: because when we record, we don't know the results of

1919
01:25:24,200 --> 01:25:26,280
Speaker 1: those yet from last week, so we'll well our best

1920
01:25:26,280 --> 01:25:29,559
Speaker 1: to keep everybody, you know, track of that throughout the season.

1921
01:25:29,960 --> 01:25:31,920
Speaker 1: So those guys each other their second starts coming up

1922
01:25:31,920 --> 01:25:34,160
Speaker 1: this weekend, which is what Mayor is referring to you.

1923
01:25:34,200 --> 01:25:37,799
Speaker 1: There my weekend excitement. And there were a few options

1924
01:25:37,800 --> 01:25:39,160
Speaker 1: here and I picked I think a lot of good

1925
01:25:39,160 --> 01:25:41,840
Speaker 1: ones that Mayor was not not allowed to pick. I

1926
01:25:41,840 --> 01:25:43,760
Speaker 1: want to see I'm a mooto against the Padres again.

1927
01:25:43,800 --> 01:25:48,040
Speaker 1: Obviously it was abysmal first start, but a unique situation

1928
01:25:48,200 --> 01:25:50,880
Speaker 1: given where the series has taking place and how early

1929
01:25:50,920 --> 01:25:53,479
Speaker 1: it was and first time facing you know, major league hitters,

1930
01:25:53,520 --> 01:25:55,360
Speaker 1: all that stuff. So i want to see how he

1931
01:25:55,400 --> 01:25:59,200
Speaker 1: does second time around against the Padres, especially with a

1932
01:25:59,280 --> 01:26:02,160
Speaker 1: dearth of gble, you know, fantasy aces. It would be

1933
01:26:02,200 --> 01:26:04,560
Speaker 1: really nice if Yamamoto could kind of continue to like

1934
01:26:04,720 --> 01:26:07,479
Speaker 1: really solidify himself as one and show that was a fluke.

1935
01:26:08,000 --> 01:26:11,200
Speaker 1: Ronelle Blanco, I'm really curious to see him facing Texas

1936
01:26:11,280 --> 01:26:13,559
Speaker 1: a second time. We talked last week, coming off with

1937
01:26:13,600 --> 01:26:16,360
Speaker 1: the no hitter, how you know, he kind of introduced

1938
01:26:16,360 --> 01:26:19,439
Speaker 1: the change up and maybe teams weren't quite ready for it,

1939
01:26:19,760 --> 01:26:22,240
Speaker 1: and that was a key to his early success here.

1940
01:26:23,280 --> 01:26:26,400
Speaker 1: And I'm really interested to see now that he's facing

1941
01:26:26,439 --> 01:26:28,400
Speaker 1: not only a team again, but a team again, like

1942
01:26:28,520 --> 01:26:31,920
Speaker 1: a week later if they have adjusted and are now

1943
01:26:32,120 --> 01:26:34,920
Speaker 1: more ready for his repertoire that he's going to come

1944
01:26:34,920 --> 01:26:38,080
Speaker 1: out with, and if he can continue to have a

1945
01:26:38,200 --> 01:26:40,559
Speaker 1: really strong start to the season and look like, oh,

1946
01:26:40,600 --> 01:26:42,719
Speaker 1: maybe this is a guy who's elevated his game somehow

1947
01:26:42,760 --> 01:26:45,719
Speaker 1: and it is really worth being in every week starter

1948
01:26:45,920 --> 01:26:48,800
Speaker 1: versus Hey. Kind of a fun first couple of starts

1949
01:26:48,840 --> 01:26:50,920
Speaker 1: and not so much so I'm really curious to see

1950
01:26:50,920 --> 01:26:54,599
Speaker 1: how he goes against the Rangers. Obviously, Corbyn Burns facing

1951
01:26:54,680 --> 01:26:57,640
Speaker 1: the Brewers for the first time in his in his

1952
01:26:57,720 --> 01:26:59,360
Speaker 1: chance to get a revenge. The game is in Baltimore,

1953
01:26:59,400 --> 01:27:02,479
Speaker 1: not Milwaukee, but should be a really fun one over

1954
01:27:02,479 --> 01:27:04,760
Speaker 1: the weekend. But of course, how could it not be

1955
01:27:04,880 --> 01:27:10,080
Speaker 1: Jackson Holiday home debut Friday night against those Brewers. It

1956
01:27:10,200 --> 01:27:12,240
Speaker 1: was originally going to be dl Hall starting, and it

1957
01:27:12,360 --> 01:27:15,439
Speaker 1: was a question of if Holiday would actually even get

1958
01:27:15,439 --> 01:27:17,200
Speaker 1: to play in that first game, which I think people

1959
01:27:17,200 --> 01:27:19,759
Speaker 1: would have like rioted if he didn't give him facing

1960
01:27:19,800 --> 01:27:22,479
Speaker 1: the lefty, but there was you know, with the rain.

1961
01:27:22,520 --> 01:27:25,479
Speaker 1: Now now it will be a righty facing the Orioles

1962
01:27:25,479 --> 01:27:27,759
Speaker 1: on Friday night, so we will see. I assume Jackson

1963
01:27:27,800 --> 01:27:31,240
Speaker 1: Holiday make his Canden Yard's debut on Friday night. I

1964
01:27:31,360 --> 01:27:34,800
Speaker 1: am very excited for that. Let's get into the two

1965
01:27:34,840 --> 01:27:37,519
Speaker 1: start pitcher competition to actually wrap things up, I'll let

1966
01:27:37,560 --> 01:27:38,479
Speaker 1: you go first again.

1967
01:27:38,280 --> 01:27:40,720
Speaker 4: Sure, so to start well real quick before we jump

1968
01:27:40,760 --> 01:27:43,280
Speaker 4: into that, one quick note on Ronel Blanco.

1969
01:27:43,600 --> 01:27:44,559
Speaker 3: I actually picked him up.

1970
01:27:44,520 --> 01:27:46,840
Speaker 4: In the league last week in a league, so he

1971
01:27:46,920 --> 01:27:49,479
Speaker 4: pitched on Sunday with his second really good start. I'm

1972
01:27:49,479 --> 01:27:51,720
Speaker 4: actually in the league where waivers run on Saturday and

1973
01:27:51,760 --> 01:27:54,200
Speaker 4: Sunday night, so I actually put in a cheap waiver

1974
01:27:54,240 --> 01:27:55,760
Speaker 4: claim for him on Saturday just to see if I

1975
01:27:55,760 --> 01:27:57,439
Speaker 4: get him for cheap before that second start, and I

1976
01:27:57,439 --> 01:27:59,720
Speaker 4: got him for three dollars. I'm surprised I was able

1977
01:27:59,760 --> 01:28:02,040
Speaker 4: to get him. But because of what you said where

1978
01:28:02,040 --> 01:28:04,479
Speaker 4: he's facing the Rangers for a second time, I actually

1979
01:28:04,560 --> 01:28:06,439
Speaker 4: added him on waivers and then put him on my

1980
01:28:06,520 --> 01:28:10,240
Speaker 4: bench because I was worried about him facing the Rangers

1981
01:28:10,240 --> 01:28:11,719
Speaker 4: for a second time. So we'll see how that goes.

1982
01:28:12,080 --> 01:28:14,720
Speaker 4: But for my two star pitcher for this week, I

1983
01:28:14,760 --> 01:28:17,400
Speaker 4: am taking Aaron Nola, who has two home matchups, the

1984
01:28:17,439 --> 01:28:20,280
Speaker 4: first against the Rockies and the second against the White Sox,

1985
01:28:20,320 --> 01:28:22,559
Speaker 4: two of the worst offenses in baseball.

1986
01:28:23,520 --> 01:28:26,720
Speaker 1: That is probably smart. I am taking Cutter Crawford. We

1987
01:28:26,800 --> 01:28:30,080
Speaker 1: talked a bit about the Red Sox rotation on last

1988
01:28:30,080 --> 01:28:33,599
Speaker 1: week's episode. He looked really good against the Oil Sports

1989
01:28:33,640 --> 01:28:36,439
Speaker 1: seven runs yesterday, and it was after Crawford was gone.

1990
01:28:36,520 --> 01:28:38,880
Speaker 1: I mean they he looked really good, kind of dicing up.

1991
01:28:38,920 --> 01:28:42,000
Speaker 1: He looked really good all season. Obviously, the roster percentage

1992
01:28:42,040 --> 01:28:44,639
Speaker 1: is still actually not I think as high as it might.

1993
01:28:44,880 --> 01:28:47,520
Speaker 2: You know, Warrant being given his start to the season.

1994
01:28:48,760 --> 01:28:51,080
Speaker 3: Great name, I think you're too, Cutter Crawford. What a

1995
01:28:51,080 --> 01:28:51,600
Speaker 3: great name for.

1996
01:28:51,600 --> 01:28:53,800
Speaker 1: A pitcher per perfect game, especially in this era when

1997
01:28:53,800 --> 01:28:56,960
Speaker 1: everybody's thrown throwing Cutters. You know, he's got eighteen strikeouts in.

1998
01:28:57,520 --> 01:28:59,680
Speaker 3: Cutter with a K too, even better Cutter with a G.

1999
01:28:59,800 --> 01:29:01,720
Speaker 1: Yes, that's actually a great point that cutter with a

2000
01:29:01,840 --> 01:29:04,800
Speaker 1: K is is. That's that's extra elite. But as ERA

2001
01:29:04,920 --> 01:29:07,400
Speaker 1: and WEP are both under one, you know, three starts

2002
01:29:07,400 --> 01:29:09,679
Speaker 1: into the season, I just I think he's looked really good,

2003
01:29:09,720 --> 01:29:12,040
Speaker 1: and since he's a two start pitcher, and I don't

2004
01:29:12,040 --> 01:29:13,559
Speaker 1: want to just kind of waste all the aces early,

2005
01:29:13,600 --> 01:29:15,320
Speaker 1: although maybe I should, because they're going to get hurt

2006
01:29:15,360 --> 01:29:18,040
Speaker 1: before I can use him. He's facing the Guardians and

2007
01:29:18,080 --> 01:29:20,599
Speaker 1: the vaunted Pirates lineup that we talked about last week

2008
01:29:20,600 --> 01:29:24,000
Speaker 1: as well, so well known. We will see how Cutter

2009
01:29:24,080 --> 01:29:26,799
Speaker 1: does next week. Any other thoughts, This is a long episode,

2010
01:29:26,800 --> 01:29:28,040
Speaker 1: but we got a lot in there.

2011
01:29:28,320 --> 01:29:30,200
Speaker 4: No, I don't want to talk any longer and make

2012
01:29:30,280 --> 01:29:32,200
Speaker 4: us go any longer than we've already gone and get

2013
01:29:32,280 --> 01:29:35,000
Speaker 4: us in trouble with John and Welsh. But uh yeah,

2014
01:29:35,120 --> 01:29:36,120
Speaker 4: really good conversation.

2015
01:29:37,520 --> 01:29:37,720
Speaker 2: Name.

2016
01:29:39,120 --> 01:29:41,519
Speaker 1: Thank you everybody for sticking with us through this jam

2017
01:29:41,560 --> 01:29:44,760
Speaker 1: packed episode. For Mayor and for Welsh, We're coming on.

2018
01:29:44,840 --> 01:29:46,599
Speaker 1: I am Ryan Warmley and we'll.

2019
01:29:46,479 --> 01:29:47,599
Speaker 2: Be back again next week.

2020
01:29:47,720 --> 01:29:50,920
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.

2021
01:29:51,160 --> 01:29:53,639
Speaker 2: Follow us on x, Instagram.

2022
01:29:53,120 --> 01:29:56,040
Speaker 1: And TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube

2023
01:29:56,080 --> 01:29:59,120
Speaker 1: channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB

2024
01:30:01,160 --> 01:30:01,320
Speaker 2: Two