Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
Speaker 1: on applecar Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Joining us right now for the half hour. David Rosenberg
Speaker 2: of Rosenberg Research in Toronto.
Speaker 3: I need to.
Speaker 2: Explain this to people that what is so important with
Speaker 2: David Rosenberg is the heritage where you stole Merrill Lynch
Speaker 2: research for no other reason, a guy named Farrell and
Speaker 2: a guy named Rosenberg.
Speaker 3: He's continued that tradition.
Speaker 2: And if you steal David Rosenberg's research, now it's about
Speaker 2: the re asserting of a deflation area or disinflationary And David,
Speaker 2: do you once again just say the permanence here is
Speaker 2: towards lower interest rates.
Speaker 4: I do believe that wouldn't surprise me if the Fed
Speaker 4: engages in what people would call a hawkish cut on
Speaker 4: December eighteenth, signal a pause, and probably the dot plots
Speaker 4: will go from four cuts to two, and then we
Speaker 4: go to March, and I believe the data will then
Speaker 4: push them back to predicting four cuts from two. So
Speaker 4: these these dot plots move around a lot because the
Speaker 4: FED is just basically operates on a contemporaneous basis. But
Speaker 4: I do believe that the trend in rates will be lower,
Speaker 4: and I think that the trend in inflation is going
Speaker 4: to be lower. And I think that, you know, the
Speaker 4: one thing that I'm confident of more now than it
Speaker 4: was even a few weeks ago, is that we're not
Speaker 4: going to be seeing the big terrifikes that were being
Speaker 4: pledged during the campaign. It's very clear, just early on
Speaker 4: before Trump's taken office, and we've seen how we handled
Speaker 4: Mexico and Canada that the tariffs are really being used
Speaker 4: as a weapon to achieve, you know, other security goals.
Speaker 4: I don't think we're going to get the big tariff increases.
Speaker 4: I think that, you know, the economics team's put together
Speaker 4: has been pretty impressive. I think that they're going to
Speaker 4: encourage Trump to resist those temptations for a global trade war,
Speaker 4: big terriff increases, and then what's left, what's left is
Speaker 4: going to be a deficit reduction, and that's not going
Speaker 4: to come from the President, but it's going to come
Speaker 4: from Congress, and we're going to get we're going to
Speaker 4: get deregulation and more oil production. Let me go to
Speaker 4: the very difficult to believe that we're going to generate
Speaker 4: an inflation cycle out of those developments.
Speaker 2: David, The heart of the matter is that we had
Speaker 2: a triple stimulus out of the pandemic. Let me a
Speaker 2: question that many people ask, is the American exceptionalism. Is
Speaker 2: the American boom and productivity nothing more than a follow
Speaker 2: on of a unique stimulus that austere Europe didn't do.
Speaker 4: Well. You know, the productivity side really comes from the
Speaker 4: supply side of the economy, not the demand side, so
Speaker 4: there was really nothing. I don't think that we can
Speaker 4: point to stimulus being the driver of productivity. Curiously enough,
Speaker 4: what COVID managed to do and that's the reason why
Speaker 4: productivity growth has been surprisingly strong. So we came out
Speaker 4: of COVID with a productivity shift to the upside. And
Speaker 4: the one sector actually that has led the growth in
Speaker 4: productivity has not been technology or finance, actually been the
Speaker 4: retail sector. Because during the pandemic and the lockdowns and
Speaker 4: the aftermath, you know, if you didn't digitize your business
Speaker 4: and follow the Amazon model as a retailer, you're going
Speaker 4: to go out of business. So even before what's happened
Speaker 4: on the AI side, which the markets certainly believe that
Speaker 4: this is going to be a productivity game changer, and
Speaker 4: it probably will be. The post COVID environment actually generated
Speaker 4: this sort of productivity improvements that Japell has been talking about.
Speaker 1: They're real.
Speaker 4: And then the question is going to be for the
Speaker 4: next five or ten years, what will this model shift
Speaker 4: from the inflection point on the technology curve going to
Speaker 4: do the productivity in the future. And I will actually
Speaker 4: tip my hat to the bulls who say that this
Speaker 4: is going to be a game changer.
Speaker 5: David.
Speaker 6: The Federal Reserve appears to be focusing on the labor market.
Speaker 6: Here we got initial job as claims today a little
Speaker 6: bit higher than expectations. What's your view of the US
Speaker 6: labor market given that the Fed is really looking at it.
Speaker 4: The way I would describe it is cooling but not contracting.
Speaker 4: Even if we get the consensus estimate of coll it
Speaker 4: close to two hundred thousand tomorrow, you know, in the
Speaker 4: context of what happened in October, that leaves you with
Speaker 4: an average of about one hundred thousand. So the trend
Speaker 4: is cooling off. I expect that that will continue. And
Speaker 4: like most of the other parts of the economic pie,
Speaker 4: I mean the incoming data, I've just been so confusing.
Speaker 4: I mean, you get the numbers from Jolts and they
Speaker 4: show openings up but hirings down. You get the ADP
Speaker 4: number rout and the ADP showed that hiring amongst large
Speaker 4: businesses surged. But yet small companies, which are really in
Speaker 4: the weeds of the economy a lot more than big companies.
Speaker 4: Small companies on net have let people go in three
Speaker 4: of the past four months. I've read the Basebook yesterday,
Speaker 4: and you know, I'm shrugging my shoulders as to how J.
Speaker 4: Powell can talk about the economy being strong when the
Speaker 4: Beige Book itself had about two hundred and fifty references
Speaker 4: to the economy either being slightly growing, modestly growing, or
Speaker 4: just outright week only twenty nine times was the word
Speaker 4: strong used in the Beige Book, and a fifty one
Speaker 4: page document to which I say, you know, mister Powell,
Speaker 4: if you're going to spend all the time, resources and
Speaker 4: money on the Beige Book, why don't you at least
Speaker 4: listen to it. What was very striking in the Beige
Speaker 4: Book and I would still say it's qualitative. It's not quantitative,
Speaker 4: but it's not revised. It just gets updated every six weeks.
Speaker 4: And I don't know if you guys went through it.
Speaker 4: I went through it tooth and nail because that's what
Speaker 4: I have to do. It's the most pleasurable read in
Speaker 4: the world. The labor market. I mean, there are elements
Speaker 4: that improved in the past six weeks overall economic activity yes,
Speaker 4: the consumer yes. But funny enough, the labor market was downgraded.
Speaker 4: And there were numerous comments on how wage growth is cooling?
Speaker 4: So how do you get wage growth cooling in the
Speaker 4: labor market that everybody thinks is tight or tightening. So
Speaker 4: again we just start riddled with all these anomalies and inconsistencies.
Speaker 4: But I would say that if you want to trend
Speaker 4: out the data, labor market not contracting yet, but it
Speaker 4: is cooling off.
Speaker 2: Okay, David, one final question quickly here it is the
Speaker 2: Rosenberg Bult market.
Speaker 3: Can you buy? Can you own stacks? Here? David Rosenberg?
Speaker 4: Well, I'm having my own epiphany right now on this
Speaker 4: topic because, let's face it, it was the best year
Speaker 4: for the stock market since twenty nineteen. I'm not alone.
Speaker 4: I mean, the consensus at the end of last year
Speaker 4: for the end of this year for the SMP five
Speaker 4: hundred was forty nine hundred, and we've just blown through
Speaker 4: six thousand, and I think that there's a couple of
Speaker 4: things that are happening that should have you feeling bullish.
Speaker 4: I'm still concerned over market positioning and sentiment is off
Speaker 4: the charts, and I am expecting in your term correction.
Speaker 4: The question is which would be normal? Is what you
Speaker 4: do if we get the Depp And I think that
Speaker 4: you'd want to buy the Depp. And I say that
Speaker 4: because you know, I've been calling this a bubble for
Speaker 4: a while, but it's maybe a bubble if you look
Speaker 4: at trailing P multiples or one year four P multiples.
Speaker 4: But if in fact we've had an inflection point on
Speaker 4: the technology curve, if we've had a model shift when
Speaker 4: it comes to what AI is going to deliver in
Speaker 4: terms of future profitability and productivity, I'm thinking that the
Speaker 4: market is sending you a message that it is taking
Speaker 4: that investors have basically lengthened their time horizons. So all
Speaker 4: the classic evaluation metrics that I've been using, I'm not
Speaker 4: going to say they're obsolete, but they're probably just not
Speaker 4: relevant to today's backdrop. So I would say that, yeah,
Speaker 4: I guess if you can want to color me more
Speaker 4: probably more positive on the stock market on a secondor basis,
Speaker 4: based on everything that I've seen this year in particular,
Speaker 4: then yeah, I would say that you expect the near
Speaker 4: term correction. I think it would be normal considering the
Speaker 4: Nose League levels we're at. However, I think it's a
Speaker 4: depth that you probably will want to buy.
Speaker 2: David, we're out of time, but next time you're on,
Speaker 2: we want to talk to you about Canada's at fifty
Speaker 2: first State and I'll love to see how that goes.
Speaker 3: David Rosenberg's Rosenberg Research.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Apple car Play and and Broyte Auto with a Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Now is almost an annual thing that we do at
Speaker 2: the end of the year. We try to just stop
Speaker 2: and talk about.
Speaker 3: The emotion that all of his face. At the absolute.
Speaker 2: Minimum, gold is a cultural loadstone back to pre biblical times.
Speaker 2: Gold is something different it's something something very different, Paul.
Speaker 2: At the corner of fifty seventh Street and Fifth Avenue, all.
Speaker 3: Four corners you can enjoy gold.
Speaker 2: And without question, the one that holds a high ground
Speaker 2: on this is it the Hong Kong and Shanghai banking corporations.
Speaker 2: James Steele is absolutely definitive.
Speaker 3: Is the price of gold. I think a bitcoin and.
Speaker 2: The madness of one hundred thousand. He's the price of
Speaker 2: gold this year. Detached from the microeconomics of gold or
Speaker 2: the industrial jewelry use of gold.
Speaker 7: Well, certainly, and thank you for having me, Tom. Certainly,
Speaker 7: if you were to look at the underlying physical demand,
Speaker 7: that is what's absorbed by retailers, bars, coins, small bars,
Speaker 7: coins and jewelry, one would not expect gold to be
Speaker 7: out where we are now. But gold is a hybrid
Speaker 7: of microeconomic and geopolitical factors plus those micro ones, and
Speaker 7: what's been propelling gold this year has been well, primarily
Speaker 7: geopolitical risk, a risk of all kinds.
Speaker 6: Actually, who's buying gold? Is it the Chinese Central Bank?
Speaker 6: Is it Chinese individuals? Is it the United States? Who's
Speaker 6: buying this stuff?
Speaker 7: China and India where fifty percent of all the physical
Speaker 7: gold demand in the world lies really has been yes,
Speaker 7: and fifty percent of jewelry as well. I don't want
Speaker 7: to keep repeating fifty percent, but fifty percent of all
Speaker 7: gold demand is in jewelry physical demand, and fifty percent
Speaker 7: of all gold demand including jewelry is bought in China
Speaker 7: and India, So they are they are massive importers, and
Speaker 7: they have cooled in recent months. We had a jump
Speaker 7: in India in August because they reduced the tariffs, but
Speaker 7: that was a pretty much a one off. And we
Speaker 7: know by looking at the Mumbai discounter premium to London
Speaker 7: and the Shanghai premium or discount to London that demand
Speaker 7: is soft. So who's buying it? Then that's investors who
Speaker 7: are not buying jewelry, not necessarily buying coins or small bars.
Speaker 7: They're buying large bars, or they're buying on the over
Speaker 7: the countermarket. These are asset managers, hedge funds, commodity trading advisors,
Speaker 7: because they've been getting positive technical signals, and we shouldn't
Speaker 7: forget the people that really helped kick the whole gold
Speaker 7: rally off. Central bank demand is not at the red
Speaker 7: hot levels of last year or the year before, but
Speaker 7: it's still substantial.
Speaker 6: How do you think about gold in the context of
Speaker 6: bitcoin against Tom mentioned we've got bitcoin now over one
Speaker 6: hundred thousand dollars per token. I mean, what's the relationship there,
Speaker 6: if any.
Speaker 7: From your perspective, Well, I think you have to ask
Speaker 7: you have to ask yourself what is the nature of
Speaker 7: these two instruments and why why do we buy gold
Speaker 7: versus something else? Well, you buy gold for the physicality,
Speaker 7: You're able to touch it, you're able to store it,
Speaker 7: will store it for you or other bullion banks will
Speaker 7: store it for you, which.
Speaker 6: We still need a tour of your vault there.
Speaker 7: It's it's difficult these days. And you know we do.
Speaker 1: We do.
Speaker 7: We do have a substantial vault or operations globally. Uh.
Speaker 7: And the difference between gold. One of the differences between
Speaker 7: gold bitcoin is you can you can hold gold, you
Speaker 7: can have it. Also, it's the longevity. And I'm not
Speaker 7: a plus or a negative on on on the on
Speaker 7: the bitcoin front, I'm agnostic. But gold has a long
Speaker 7: history of being an excellent portfolio diversifier and that's one
Speaker 7: of the reasons that central banks want it.
Speaker 3: James, still a delicate question.
Speaker 2: I don't want you in trouble with the General counsel
Speaker 2: and I'm sure is tuned in to this conversation at HSBC.
Speaker 2: But the basic idea in the ft and also the
Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal had this really serious money laundering acquisitions
Speaker 2: with tether being the big cooin stable coin currency a
Speaker 2: choice if you will in the digital world.
Speaker 3: Is gold used for money laundering?
Speaker 2: It's it's it's like too heavy, right, yes, effectively if
Speaker 2: there's not a criminal tone. No, within the greater gold universe. No.
Speaker 7: And and and here's where you know, the London Bullion
Speaker 7: Market Association, headed by Ruth Kroll, has really been excellent,
Speaker 7: you know in this uh for sourcing gold, where does.
Speaker 3: It come from?
Speaker 7: Making sure that it's not being mined in places that
Speaker 7: are exploiting.
Speaker 3: The population?
Speaker 7: Uh, tracking it. We only accept London Bulliant Market good delivery,
Speaker 7: as would any other bullion bank. Right, and so therefore
Speaker 7: it's just not it's not It's also not as easy
Speaker 7: as to steal it. It's not like the movies where
Speaker 7: you see all these blokes throwing gold into the back
Speaker 7: of a van after they've broken into something. It is
Speaker 7: dense and it is heavy.
Speaker 2: Okay, this is great, James still thank you so much.
Speaker 2: An annual visitor in the State of Gold.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: Joining us right now. Thrilled.
Speaker 2: I'm really honored that we could have him today. Is
Speaker 2: someone with a global perspective. His initial acclaim with the
Speaker 2: Bush Senior administration on Northern Ireland Richard hasse Of course,
Speaker 2: I'm going to say, really the reinvigoration of the Council
Speaker 2: on Foreign Relations.
Speaker 3: He is with center view. Ambassador Hause, thank you for
Speaker 3: joining us. I think we forget that Soul, Korea is thirty.
Speaker 2: Five miles from the Demilitarized Zone the DMZ. How does
Speaker 2: the tension of North Korea and South Korea fold into
Speaker 2: the shock of government collapse in tests in Seoul?
Speaker 5: Good question, Tom, Good morning. I think the issue is
Speaker 5: whether North Korea, which is obviously watching what's going on
Speaker 5: in South Korea with say more than a little interest,
Speaker 5: whether they see this as a moment of some opportunity.
Speaker 5: This is in North Korea remains the most militarized country
Speaker 5: in the world. You've got two large conventional armies or
Speaker 5: raid against each other. You still have more than twenty
Speaker 5: thousand American troops there. North Korea obviously also has a
Speaker 5: missile and a growing nuclear force. So that's the danger
Speaker 5: here that they would see this as some a moment
Speaker 5: of opportunity to exploit, and I would expect and hope
Speaker 5: that South Korean and US forces would be at a
Speaker 5: higher level of alert just to try to deter any
Speaker 5: such thing.
Speaker 2: June of twenty nineteen, President Trump meets Kim John Un.
Speaker 3: We all remember that moment.
Speaker 2: What if that happens again, What is the signal to
Speaker 2: South Korea if the President elect reducts is June of
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen.
Speaker 5: Look, the South Korean relationship with President Donald Trump was
Speaker 5: one of the worst relations between an American ally and
Speaker 5: the United States. The President really pushed hard about why
Speaker 5: wasn't South Korea doing more to pay for US troops there,
Speaker 5: concerns about the trade and balance and so forth so much,
Speaker 5: and by the way, and threatened to pull US forces
Speaker 5: out of South Korea. So if you were to once
Speaker 5: again ratchet up the pressure. I think the most likely
Speaker 5: reaction would be that South Korea would think very seriously,
Speaker 5: indeed about developing nuclear weapons of its own if it
Speaker 5: came to lose faith in the United States. And that's
Speaker 5: the sort of thing that, among other things, could cause
Speaker 5: a real crisis with China. So there's a lot of
Speaker 5: potential dynamics.
Speaker 6: Here, Richard, How concern should the average American be, or
Speaker 6: the average just observer in the West to be about
Speaker 6: South Korea? This martial law news over the last couple
Speaker 6: of days really caught I think everybody by surprise. How
Speaker 6: concerned should we be about the stability of that part
Speaker 6: of the world.
Speaker 5: It did catch everybody by surprise, including everybody in South Korea.
Speaker 5: The good news is it went nowhere. You had the
Speaker 5: declaration of martial law. The National Assembly met almost immediately repudiated,
Speaker 5: public opinion repudiated it. The president back down very quickly.
Speaker 5: So to me, the larger story is a good one
Speaker 5: about the resilience of South Korean democracy and institutions some
Speaker 5: forty plus years since South Korea jo join the ranks
Speaker 5: of the democracy. So I don't think we should be concerned.
Speaker 5: I actually think the big loser here is President Yun
Speaker 5: and he'll obviously face now and an impeachment challenge, and
Speaker 5: I'm not sure if he survives. Is what he said
Speaker 5: in motion. He was unpopular before this, he's far more
Speaker 5: unpopular now. He's lost a lot of legitimacy. But I
Speaker 5: actually think it's a good day for South Korean democracy.
Speaker 2: It is not quiet in December. We welcome all of
Speaker 2: you across the nation your morning commute. Bloomberg surveillance, too
Speaker 2: much international relations. It seems we're focused on Paris and
Speaker 2: of course on what we see in seoulon with this,
Speaker 2: Richard Haas coming up, Ardichild Friedman and the currency markets,
Speaker 2: and we're looking forward to economic data here in twenty minutes, Paul.
Speaker 6: Richard, let's move over to what we're seeing in Ukraine here. Boy,
Speaker 6: there's so many dynamics here, so many ebbs and flows here,
Speaker 6: with an incoming US administration here, how do you think
Speaker 6: this is going to play out over the coming months
Speaker 6: in Ukraine?
Speaker 5: Actually, uncharacteristically, I hope you're all sitting down there upbeat.
Speaker 5: I actually think over twenty twenty five, while the battlefield
Speaker 5: will continue, I think attention's going to move to the
Speaker 5: negotiating table. The person Donald Trump is appointed Keith Kellogg,
Speaker 5: retired Army general. He was Mike Pence's National security advisor,
Speaker 5: but he's been appointed to be the point man for
Speaker 5: Ukraine and Russia. What he's recently written about the subject
Speaker 5: I find incredibly Sensible's potentially on first going to Ukraine
Speaker 5: saying we'll continue to provide arms, but you've got to
Speaker 5: be willing to negotiate in good faith and base the
Speaker 5: negotiation pretty much on a ceasefire in place. And I
Speaker 5: think the Ukraine government has come around to that if
Speaker 5: you listen to what mister Zelenski's saying, and then the
Speaker 5: question is whether they can bring Russia around. But to me,
Speaker 5: it's all good news. There's a focus on negotiations. No
Speaker 5: one's talking about throwing Ukraine under the bus, and very quickly,
Speaker 5: I think the pressure is going to be on Vladimir
Speaker 5: Putin to meet Ukraine halfway. So I don't think it's
Speaker 5: crazy optimistic to say in twenty twenty five, by the
Speaker 5: end of that year, so a year from now we
Speaker 5: could be seeing real progress diplomatically. I'm actually optimistic about it.
Speaker 6: Richard, how do you think how would you characterize the
Speaker 6: relationship today with President elect Trump and Putin? Is it
Speaker 6: going to be constructive? Is can we move the ball
Speaker 6: forward on a number of issues? What's that relationship like?
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's the right question. The atmospherics have often been good.
Speaker 5: The substance. Who knows. Look, you've got Ukraine. That'll be
Speaker 5: probably the first early test. We'll see if mister Trump
Speaker 5: can persuade Putin to dial down his relationship with North Korea.
Speaker 5: That'll be a second test a year after Donald Trump
Speaker 5: resumes his presidency because and re enters the Oval Office,
Speaker 5: the new Starred Arms Control Framework all is set to expire,
Speaker 5: So we're going to learn there as well. Can the
Speaker 5: Trump administration and Putin? Can they extend the nuclear arms
Speaker 5: agreements that have been so central to international stability. So
Speaker 5: there's any number of issues. So I'm not in the
Speaker 5: predictions business, and I don't think there's any way of knowing,
Speaker 5: but we're going to have some pretty early indications beginning
Speaker 5: with Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Richard Hass look at your work with the consult Foreign
Speaker 2: Relations and your ability to write prodigiously about this.
Speaker 3: Let us stop and go back.
Speaker 2: To really an important work foreign policy begins at home.
Speaker 2: How are we doing, Richard Hass, how are we doing
Speaker 2: in building out our domestic structure to project internationally?
Speaker 5: If I were still a professor, I give us a
Speaker 5: pretty low grade. I'm not sure I give us a
Speaker 5: passing grade. We're extraordinarily divided, which makes it increasingly difficult
Speaker 5: to be consistent and reliable, either for our friends or
Speaker 5: against our fos. We're also been unsuccessful at tackling many
Speaker 5: of our domestic challenges. Just take two. One is the
Speaker 5: border situation, and if people in this country see real
Speaker 5: problems here at home, they don't have the bandwidth, they
Speaker 5: don't have the focus on the rest of the world.
Speaker 5: The other something you talk a lot about on your
Speaker 5: program here, which is the deficit and debt. And again
Speaker 5: we'll see whether we have the collective will to tackle
Speaker 5: to tackle that. It's interesting the numbers that are brought
Speaker 5: down the French government running a deficit to GDP ratio
Speaker 5: about six or so percent. Guess what that's where we are,
Speaker 5: and our cumulative debt is essentially now what equal to
Speaker 5: our GDP? So we're in serious water. So I think
Speaker 5: there's real issues about our focus, our political consensus, and
Speaker 5: also just the resource availability for the United States to
Speaker 5: play the kind of role in the world that we
Speaker 5: have for what eighty years now, and then I would
Speaker 5: argue has served us in the world pretty well.
Speaker 3: You were a young, laded Oberman.
Speaker 2: There's a photo out of Paul Sweeney of Barneier. I
Speaker 2: think he couldn't shave he was so young and pompadou,
Speaker 2: which harkens back to folks in nineteen sixty two in
Speaker 2: the collapse of another French government Richard hass a question
Speaker 2: I asked our Stephen Coe earlier, should we get ready
Speaker 2: for a sixth French Republic?
Speaker 5: A good question, but the problems to me aren't so
Speaker 5: much mechanical tom as political. So you have the left
Speaker 5: and the right voting down the Prime Minister, and all
Speaker 5: this comes against the backdrop of I think mccrome, mishandling
Speaker 5: French politics calling for snap elections when they are unlikely
Speaker 5: to result in anything good. But the real question is
Speaker 5: what is the left and the right willing to vote for?
Speaker 5: So it's the issue is not just Barneer. The issue
Speaker 5: is not mechanical like it was with the Fourth Republic.
Speaker 5: The real question to me is do you have a
Speaker 5: consensus in France to take some difficult decisions about spending, taxation,
Speaker 5: and the rest. Sounds familiar I expect, and I don't
Speaker 5: think that can be fixed mechanically with rewriting the rules
Speaker 5: of French politics. And you couldn't rewrite the rules in
Speaker 5: any case quickly enough we'll get approval of them. There's
Speaker 5: no figure like the gall who could ram it through
Speaker 5: the French political system. So I think we're pretty much
Speaker 5: stuck with the Fifth Republic.
Speaker 3: Thank you so much for the time.
Speaker 2: Richard Hass, of course, with cent of you partners, can't
Speaker 2: say enough about his work with the Council on Foreign
Speaker 2: Relations and Foreign Affairs magazine as well.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 2: Right now, with a window into your Washington, Professor Schiller
Speaker 2: joins from Bown University, Wendy. I look at the zeitgeist
Speaker 2: out of Washington, and it seems like a Senate ascend
Speaker 2: it trying to find their place within this era of
Speaker 2: executive power. Do you sense that that the Senate is
Speaker 2: gaining traction in what they want to do in this
Speaker 2: new mix, Well.
Speaker 8: I think Tom and Paul, good morning, and Lisa and
Speaker 8: John again, I think that it really makes you think
Speaker 8: about the majorities.
Speaker 9: So fifty three forty seven doesn't.
Speaker 8: Sound like a lot, but it's just enough to give
Speaker 8: John Thune, who's the Republican leader, who will be the
Speaker 8: Republican leader after January third, enough room Tom to sort
Speaker 8: of negotiate with Trump on one side and a fractious
Speaker 8: Senate Republican party on the other. And that's the difference
Speaker 8: that a fifty one versus three forty seven makes. And
Speaker 8: the House, I don't know if they're gonna be able
Speaker 8: to do anything, which is of concern because constitutionally they
Speaker 8: do generate. They are the originators of tax and trade bills.
Speaker 8: So this makes you nervous that the majority could on
Speaker 8: a bad day for Republicans.
Speaker 9: Do not exists in the House. So all eyes on
Speaker 9: John Thune right.
Speaker 2: Now, Professor Shuler, I think so important here to those
Speaker 2: of us not expert is one of the consequences. So
Speaker 2: Murkowski and Collins of Maine, they're in the Trump timeout
Speaker 2: chair I get that Collins Appropriations Committee chairman to be
Speaker 2: I believe, what are the consequences to a given senator
Speaker 2: who joins Murkowski and Collins pushing against the president elect?
Speaker 2: Are they not invited to the Christmas Party?
Speaker 3: I mean, what are the consequences.
Speaker 9: Tim's primary challenges?
Speaker 8: I mean, Trump is riding probably the highest level of
Speaker 8: approval he's ever had, and I think now's in a
Speaker 8: position where he can say I'm going to annoint this
Speaker 8: person to run against you, Joni.
Speaker 9: Ernst in Iowa. That's what I'm looking at, particularly on the.
Speaker 8: Hegseth nomination, because she's up in twenty six in Iowa,
Speaker 8: and you.
Speaker 9: Know, she had a sort of closer race last time.
Speaker 8: But I think you know, she's probably expected to win
Speaker 8: pretty easily if Trump doesn't find somebody else to run
Speaker 8: against her in the primary.
Speaker 9: So I think that's what these senators are worried about.
Speaker 9: But if three.
Speaker 8: Republican women come out and say they can't vote for Hegseth,
Speaker 8: then I don't think it survives.
Speaker 9: So I think this is where it's important to have
Speaker 9: the numbers.
Speaker 8: In each of these cabinet nominations in terms of objecting
Speaker 8: to what Trump wants, So.
Speaker 6: To what extent, I guess, Professor, do you think the
Speaker 6: Senate will challenge or put up some roadblocks for some
Speaker 6: of the more contentious nominees here, mister Hegseth, Telsea Gabbard
Speaker 6: and some others.
Speaker 9: Well, Paul, I.
Speaker 8: Mean, I don't think they're in a position to really
Speaker 8: put up big roadblocks. I think they're just trying to
Speaker 8: stay on the road right now with Donald Trump and
Speaker 8: not get run off the road, and so that they
Speaker 8: can actually exercise their constitutional responsibility to even have confirmation hearings.
Speaker 8: It looks like they're getting through to that, which was
Speaker 8: in doubt like two weeks ago, but now it looks
Speaker 8: like they've said, look, we'll get it done, but give
Speaker 8: us our space to do this. And it looks like
Speaker 8: Foon is preserving that power which strengthens Thoon internally in
Speaker 8: the Senate.
Speaker 9: So how much will Trump let or Trump's advisors let
Speaker 9: Thuon be that strong. We're going about to see that
Speaker 9: in the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 2: What are you observing here on the summation of the
Speaker 2: attorney of Mett Gates over to FBI. I have found,
Speaker 2: as the amateur here at Professor Schuler that the heat,
Speaker 2: the level against the FBI designate is just extraordinary.
Speaker 3: Am I right on that?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 8: I mean I think there is this is a huge
Speaker 8: moment in American you know, law enforcement history.
Speaker 9: Right. I wasn't really I wasn't allowed.
Speaker 8: For really to know j Edgar Hoover, right, I ran
Speaker 8: FBI for at least fifty years or something, and he really,
Speaker 8: one could say, abused the power of the FBI.
Speaker 9: So it's taken a long time.
Speaker 8: For the FBI to come back from that, and under
Speaker 8: Chris Ray, I think it's been restored a little bit.
Speaker 8: But this is you know, fiercely in the MAGA community
Speaker 8: and anti federal law enforcement ethos.
Speaker 9: So this is what Trump is playing to.
Speaker 8: And Trump himself probably does not have any love for
Speaker 8: the FBI, but the FBI does incredibly important work, particularly
Speaker 8: on terrorism, domestic and international and other things. So I
Speaker 8: think the Senate wants to make sure there's a functioning FBI.
Speaker 8: So that's where this is a moment in time and
Speaker 8: history for federal law enforcement, and it could be severely
Speaker 8: weakened and undermined. I don't think that's what most senators.
Speaker 6: Want, Professor. The first one hundred days of any incoming
Speaker 6: administration are absolutely critical. What do you expect this administration
Speaker 6: to really focus on the first one hundred days?
Speaker 9: Typically, Paul I would agree with you.
Speaker 8: I'd saye hundred days really matters to Donald Trump. One thing,
Speaker 8: it's his second term, not a first. So I don't
Speaker 8: know that it's that crucial this one hundred day marker.
Speaker 8: It's those of Donald Trump, and the power he wields
Speaker 8: among his voters his supporters is something we haven't seen
Speaker 8: in a long time in terms of reverse pressure on Congress.
Speaker 8: So I think that power lasts, you know, for a while,
Speaker 8: well beyond one hundred days, as long as the economy
Speaker 8: keeps looking like it's getting better and.
Speaker 9: Inflation stays stable.
Speaker 8: If the economy does not stay stable and inflation does
Speaker 8: tick up, then I think that popular support for Trump
Speaker 8: a roads and his clout with Congress or roads and
Speaker 8: a proportion to that.
Speaker 6: So what's what are the next mile posts that we
Speaker 6: need to be focused on?
Speaker 2: Professor?
Speaker 6: Here between now an inauguration day for President elect Trump
Speaker 6: and his administration, I.
Speaker 8: Think the reaction to his nominees is very important.
Speaker 9: I think that he's making more foreign trips. This was
Speaker 9: a guy who didn't really like to cross the pond.
Speaker 8: Now he's going to France to go to Notre Dame
Speaker 8: for its opening. He seems like he now wants to
Speaker 8: be forgiven, so to speak, or accepted into the international club.
Speaker 8: And I think we're going to see some developments, even
Speaker 8: though he's not even president yet, on foreign policy. He's
Speaker 8: going to want to be the guy that solves Russia,
Speaker 8: Ukraine and solves the Middle East because what's left to do,
Speaker 8: and he can show up Biden in that respect.
Speaker 9: So I do think you're going to see a bigger shift,
Speaker 9: a bigger set.
Speaker 8: Of attentions paid to foreign policy for Trump, and starting
Speaker 8: now with some of these national trips.
Speaker 3: What did you show it? Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on
Speaker 1: Apple car Play and and Broyt Auto with a Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: You look at the front pages of Lisa Matteo Hour Lisa.
Speaker 10: Oh, Tom, I know you love your bow ties, but
Speaker 10: this story sitt out to me because of you. The
Speaker 10: necktie making an office comeback. This was in the Wall
Speaker 10: Street Journal. Yes, this is a place where you see
Speaker 10: the dress, sneakers, Yes, always talks about David Weston dress. Yes, yes, yes,
Speaker 10: But who is wearing the necktie? So apparently it's the
Speaker 10: twenty something crowd. Like a lot of the interns. They're
Speaker 10: coming in. They want to make an impression, they say,
Speaker 10: help show their personality, gives them confidence. But women also
Speaker 10: getting in on the action. Nope, it commands a room,
Speaker 10: that's what they say.
Speaker 9: It's art.
Speaker 10: It's a conversation. It's becoming like the hot accessory, like
Speaker 10: shoes or jewelry. So now the women have neck ties,
Speaker 10: but some saying that sometimes they're more decked out than
Speaker 10: the bosses. The boss comes in, you knows, cash and
Speaker 10: the sneakers and everything. Boat ties and not bow ties, neckties,
Speaker 10: the actual long necktie.
Speaker 3: We just had.
Speaker 2: I haven't worn one since the time began. We just
Speaker 2: had a meeting and we're dressed to the nines and
Speaker 2: the guy walks in and he's like San Francisco cash. Yeah,
Speaker 2: And this is dead on that. There's like bouncing cultures
Speaker 2: going on.
Speaker 6: It's all started with the dot com boom in the
Speaker 6: late nineties. That's when I sensed it yes, and for
Speaker 6: a couple of years.
Speaker 7: I did go casual, but then did you?
Speaker 6: And then the market crash in two thousand and let's
Speaker 6: get back to where you.
Speaker 2: Go cash here when you're working a three day week
Speaker 2: in the summer, you know, I mean you were in Dior'
Speaker 2: of course you were in Montclair, you know exactly.
Speaker 10: Well, the pandemic kind of sparked that like cash thing too,
Speaker 10: because the work from home, and then some people slowly
Speaker 10: transition to dressing nicer.
Speaker 3: But Damien sasour everything he wears. I'm taking next.
Speaker 10: Okay, Taylor Swift, remember the concert book that came out
Speaker 10: in Target on Black Friday. Well, apparently it did really well,
Speaker 10: Sir Kana book Skins that had sold eight hundred and
Speaker 10: fourteen thousand copies the first two days. The only one
Speaker 10: to beat it is actually former President Barack Obama as
Speaker 10: a promised land But think about it. His book was
Speaker 10: sold at all major retailers. Swift's only exclusively at Target,
Speaker 10: so just a Target alone, she sold that many. But
Speaker 10: the Wall Street Journal also points to experts who say
Speaker 10: artists really need to take out a page out of
Speaker 10: that book because when it comes to concerts, they need
Speaker 10: to follow the success story that she's done, Like she's
Speaker 10: popularized a long concert. I mean hers are three hours
Speaker 10: fifteen minutes plus.
Speaker 3: What's the shortest Bruce concert you've ever met?
Speaker 6: Again and a half hours?
Speaker 3: It does know that low seventy Yeah, you know.
Speaker 10: Did you say the statistic was eight hundred thousand, eight
Speaker 10: hundred and fourteen thousand copies.
Speaker 2: When Alexander Hamilton came out ron Chernow I interviewed him,
Speaker 2: the great great Ronch. He single handedly changed the publishing
Speaker 2: business when he sold over three hundred thousand hardcovers of
Speaker 2: Alexander Hamilton. So think about that, he changed the business
Speaker 2: with three hundred thousand plus and here's Swift doing eight
Speaker 2: hundred thousand.
Speaker 10: Everything she touched on, but also the things she does,
Speaker 10: like for the concerts to get people, like they say,
Speaker 10: artists need to think attract more women. Because you had
Speaker 10: the mothers and the daughters who attended together, had the
Speaker 10: DIY bracelets. That's another thing mini residencies. You know how
Speaker 10: she does the longer stays. That's like another big.
Speaker 3: Thing that surveillance.
Speaker 2: Know, we remember our key interview foundational interview with Amy
Speaker 2: wou Silverman.
Speaker 3: Yes, her daughter Taylor waved at them.
Speaker 6: Yes, I just bought them. I just bought tickets for
Speaker 6: the Eagles at the Sphere in Vegas for April.
Speaker 9: How about that?
Speaker 6: That was an impulse purchase that sometimes regret. I've been
Speaker 6: done in the evening after a couple of cocktails. No,
Speaker 6: this is not REHD is not taking.
Speaker 3: Vince skills with them now.
Speaker 5: Yeah, very okay, very good.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm looking forward to that.
Speaker 3: There's histories.
Speaker 10: After a few cocktails, I purchased Zach Bryan country tickets
Speaker 10: for my daughter at MSG. I regret that kind of
Speaker 10: not but anyway, that costs me a lot.
Speaker 3: Dangerous they are.
Speaker 6: It's all about the experiences now least, it's not about
Speaker 6: goods and certain about experience.
Speaker 10: No, she's picking out her country off its already. Next
Speaker 10: next we got Business Insider. They had their report on
Speaker 10: how important influencers those affiliate marketers have become for Cyber Monday. No,
Speaker 10: not exactly, but the Doobe analytics they drove about twenty
Speaker 10: percent of US Cyber Monday revenue. How they do it
Speaker 10: They post these affiliate links. That's how they make their
Speaker 10: money because that link is a link to their and
Speaker 10: that's how you know. Depending on the commission they make.
Speaker 10: That's what it goes by. So they're saying a lot
Speaker 10: more people click on the links than just regular posts.
Speaker 10: So they're saying, these affiliate marketers are the ones that
Speaker 10: are really starting to push these online sales, especially through
Speaker 10: social media.
Speaker 6: They're making money just on a thirty second spot on
Speaker 6: radio TV and that's how you.
Speaker 2: Nope, nope.
Speaker 10: Now now these big companies are going to the influencer.
Speaker 9: Sure he could.
Speaker 10: I think we can make that happen.
Speaker 6: Yeah, tank.
Speaker 10: Sponsored by Tang. Yes, finally there's been a change. Cognac
Speaker 10: champagne makers, they're seeing they're looking to boost their US
Speaker 10: exports ahead of Trump's them talking about foreign countries. Yes, yes, yes,
Speaker 10: I mean France has not been part of that. But
Speaker 10: you have companies like LVMH, Cognac brand Hennessy sources saying
Speaker 10: their increasing consignment to the US following his Trump's victory.
Speaker 10: They want to do the same with Moet Champagne. But
Speaker 10: a lot about twenty seven million champagne bottles were shipped
Speaker 10: to the US last year, so they're saying that this
Speaker 10: is starting. You're starting to see a shift and companies
Speaker 10: are going to likely to redrect those bottles even that
Speaker 10: would have gone to China, so there might be she's
Speaker 10: such a hitter.
Speaker 3: You see how she pronounces.
Speaker 2: It is that it's because they're from eastern France and
Speaker 2: they pronounced like X.
Speaker 7: Is that right.
Speaker 2: It's like, you know, they a regional accent. Lisa, Thank
Speaker 2: you so much, Lisa Matteo.
Speaker 3: With our newspapers, we do each and every day.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
Speaker 1: seven to ten a m. Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal