1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 1: on applecar Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,759 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 2: Joining us right now for the half hour. David Rosenberg 7 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 2: of Rosenberg Research in Toronto. 8 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 3: I need to. 9 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 2: Explain this to people that what is so important with 10 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:42,840 Speaker 2: David Rosenberg is the heritage where you stole Merrill Lynch 11 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 2: research for no other reason, a guy named Farrell and 12 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:48,520 Speaker 2: a guy named Rosenberg. 13 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 3: He's continued that tradition. 14 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 2: And if you steal David Rosenberg's research, now it's about 15 00:00:54,880 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 2: the re asserting of a deflation area or disinflationary And David, 16 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 2: do you once again just say the permanence here is 17 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 2: towards lower interest rates. 18 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 4: I do believe that wouldn't surprise me if the Fed 19 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 4: engages in what people would call a hawkish cut on 20 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:23,119 Speaker 4: December eighteenth, signal a pause, and probably the dot plots 21 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 4: will go from four cuts to two, and then we 22 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 4: go to March, and I believe the data will then 23 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 4: push them back to predicting four cuts from two. So 24 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 4: these these dot plots move around a lot because the 25 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 4: FED is just basically operates on a contemporaneous basis. But 26 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 4: I do believe that the trend in rates will be lower, 27 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 4: and I think that the trend in inflation is going 28 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 4: to be lower. And I think that, you know, the 29 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 4: one thing that I'm confident of more now than it 30 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 4: was even a few weeks ago, is that we're not 31 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 4: going to be seeing the big terrifikes that were being 32 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 4: pledged during the campaign. It's very clear, just early on 33 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 4: before Trump's taken office, and we've seen how we handled 34 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 4: Mexico and Canada that the tariffs are really being used 35 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 4: as a weapon to achieve, you know, other security goals. 36 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 4: I don't think we're going to get the big tariff increases. 37 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 4: I think that, you know, the economics team's put together 38 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 4: has been pretty impressive. I think that they're going to 39 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 4: encourage Trump to resist those temptations for a global trade war, 40 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 4: big terriff increases, and then what's left, what's left is 41 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 4: going to be a deficit reduction, and that's not going 42 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 4: to come from the President, but it's going to come 43 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 4: from Congress, and we're going to get we're going to 44 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 4: get deregulation and more oil production. Let me go to 45 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 4: the very difficult to believe that we're going to generate 46 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 4: an inflation cycle out of those developments. 47 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 2: David, The heart of the matter is that we had 48 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 2: a triple stimulus out of the pandemic. Let me a 49 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 2: question that many people ask, is the American exceptionalism. Is 50 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 2: the American boom and productivity nothing more than a follow 51 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 2: on of a unique stimulus that austere Europe didn't do. 52 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 4: Well. You know, the productivity side really comes from the 53 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 4: supply side of the economy, not the demand side, so 54 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:31,919 Speaker 4: there was really nothing. I don't think that we can 55 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 4: point to stimulus being the driver of productivity. Curiously enough, 56 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 4: what COVID managed to do and that's the reason why 57 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 4: productivity growth has been surprisingly strong. So we came out 58 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 4: of COVID with a productivity shift to the upside. And 59 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 4: the one sector actually that has led the growth in 60 00:03:56,440 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 4: productivity has not been technology or finance, actually been the 61 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 4: retail sector. Because during the pandemic and the lockdowns and 62 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 4: the aftermath, you know, if you didn't digitize your business 63 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 4: and follow the Amazon model as a retailer, you're going 64 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 4: to go out of business. So even before what's happened 65 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 4: on the AI side, which the markets certainly believe that 66 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 4: this is going to be a productivity game changer, and 67 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:27,839 Speaker 4: it probably will be. The post COVID environment actually generated 68 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 4: this sort of productivity improvements that Japell has been talking about. 69 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: They're real. 70 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 4: And then the question is going to be for the 71 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:40,600 Speaker 4: next five or ten years, what will this model shift 72 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,479 Speaker 4: from the inflection point on the technology curve going to 73 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:47,280 Speaker 4: do the productivity in the future. And I will actually 74 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 4: tip my hat to the bulls who say that this 75 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 4: is going to be a game changer. 76 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 5: David. 77 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 6: The Federal Reserve appears to be focusing on the labor market. 78 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 6: Here we got initial job as claims today a little 79 00:04:57,279 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 6: bit higher than expectations. What's your view of the US 80 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 6: labor market given that the Fed is really looking at it. 81 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 4: The way I would describe it is cooling but not contracting. 82 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 4: Even if we get the consensus estimate of coll it 83 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 4: close to two hundred thousand tomorrow, you know, in the 84 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 4: context of what happened in October, that leaves you with 85 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 4: an average of about one hundred thousand. So the trend 86 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:26,280 Speaker 4: is cooling off. I expect that that will continue. And 87 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 4: like most of the other parts of the economic pie, 88 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 4: I mean the incoming data, I've just been so confusing. 89 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 4: I mean, you get the numbers from Jolts and they 90 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:41,719 Speaker 4: show openings up but hirings down. You get the ADP 91 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 4: number rout and the ADP showed that hiring amongst large 92 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:50,479 Speaker 4: businesses surged. But yet small companies, which are really in 93 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:52,920 Speaker 4: the weeds of the economy a lot more than big companies. 94 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,719 Speaker 4: Small companies on net have let people go in three 95 00:05:56,720 --> 00:06:00,599 Speaker 4: of the past four months. I've read the Basebook yesterday, 96 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 4: and you know, I'm shrugging my shoulders as to how J. 97 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 4: Powell can talk about the economy being strong when the 98 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 4: Beige Book itself had about two hundred and fifty references 99 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:17,720 Speaker 4: to the economy either being slightly growing, modestly growing, or 100 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 4: just outright week only twenty nine times was the word 101 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 4: strong used in the Beige Book, and a fifty one 102 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 4: page document to which I say, you know, mister Powell, 103 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:31,359 Speaker 4: if you're going to spend all the time, resources and 104 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:33,360 Speaker 4: money on the Beige Book, why don't you at least 105 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 4: listen to it. What was very striking in the Beige 106 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 4: Book and I would still say it's qualitative. It's not quantitative, 107 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 4: but it's not revised. It just gets updated every six weeks. 108 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 4: And I don't know if you guys went through it. 109 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 4: I went through it tooth and nail because that's what 110 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 4: I have to do. It's the most pleasurable read in 111 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:54,359 Speaker 4: the world. The labor market. I mean, there are elements 112 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:58,799 Speaker 4: that improved in the past six weeks overall economic activity yes, 113 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 4: the consumer yes. But funny enough, the labor market was downgraded. 114 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 4: And there were numerous comments on how wage growth is cooling? 115 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 4: So how do you get wage growth cooling in the 116 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 4: labor market that everybody thinks is tight or tightening. So 117 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 4: again we just start riddled with all these anomalies and inconsistencies. 118 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 4: But I would say that if you want to trend 119 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 4: out the data, labor market not contracting yet, but it 120 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 4: is cooling off. 121 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 2: Okay, David, one final question quickly here it is the 122 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 2: Rosenberg Bult market. 123 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 3: Can you buy? Can you own stacks? Here? David Rosenberg? 124 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 4: Well, I'm having my own epiphany right now on this 125 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 4: topic because, let's face it, it was the best year 126 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 4: for the stock market since twenty nineteen. I'm not alone. 127 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 4: I mean, the consensus at the end of last year 128 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 4: for the end of this year for the SMP five 129 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 4: hundred was forty nine hundred, and we've just blown through 130 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 4: six thousand, and I think that there's a couple of 131 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 4: things that are happening that should have you feeling bullish. 132 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 4: I'm still concerned over market positioning and sentiment is off 133 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 4: the charts, and I am expecting in your term correction. 134 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 4: The question is which would be normal? Is what you 135 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 4: do if we get the Depp And I think that 136 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 4: you'd want to buy the Depp. And I say that 137 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 4: because you know, I've been calling this a bubble for 138 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 4: a while, but it's maybe a bubble if you look 139 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 4: at trailing P multiples or one year four P multiples. 140 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 4: But if in fact we've had an inflection point on 141 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:39,559 Speaker 4: the technology curve, if we've had a model shift when 142 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 4: it comes to what AI is going to deliver in 143 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 4: terms of future profitability and productivity, I'm thinking that the 144 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 4: market is sending you a message that it is taking 145 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 4: that investors have basically lengthened their time horizons. So all 146 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 4: the classic evaluation metrics that I've been using, I'm not 147 00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 4: going to say they're obsolete, but they're probably just not 148 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 4: relevant to today's backdrop. So I would say that, yeah, 149 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 4: I guess if you can want to color me more 150 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:11,439 Speaker 4: probably more positive on the stock market on a secondor basis, 151 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:15,199 Speaker 4: based on everything that I've seen this year in particular, 152 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 4: then yeah, I would say that you expect the near 153 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:21,560 Speaker 4: term correction. I think it would be normal considering the 154 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 4: Nose League levels we're at. However, I think it's a 155 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 4: depth that you probably will want to buy. 156 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:27,959 Speaker 2: David, we're out of time, but next time you're on, 157 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 2: we want to talk to you about Canada's at fifty 158 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 2: first State and I'll love to see how that goes. 159 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 3: David Rosenberg's Rosenberg Research. 160 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 161 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 162 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 1: Apple car Play and and Broyte Auto with a Bloomberg 163 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 1: Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 164 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 2: Now is almost an annual thing that we do at 165 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 2: the end of the year. We try to just stop 166 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 2: and talk about. 167 00:09:55,559 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 3: The emotion that all of his face. At the absolute. 168 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 2: Minimum, gold is a cultural loadstone back to pre biblical times. 169 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 2: Gold is something different it's something something very different, Paul. 170 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 2: At the corner of fifty seventh Street and Fifth Avenue, all. 171 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 3: Four corners you can enjoy gold. 172 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 2: And without question, the one that holds a high ground 173 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 2: on this is it the Hong Kong and Shanghai banking corporations. 174 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:25,319 Speaker 2: James Steele is absolutely definitive. 175 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:28,679 Speaker 3: Is the price of gold. I think a bitcoin and. 176 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 2: The madness of one hundred thousand. He's the price of 177 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 2: gold this year. Detached from the microeconomics of gold or 178 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:41,319 Speaker 2: the industrial jewelry use of gold. 179 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 7: Well, certainly, and thank you for having me, Tom. Certainly, 180 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 7: if you were to look at the underlying physical demand, 181 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 7: that is what's absorbed by retailers, bars, coins, small bars, 182 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 7: coins and jewelry, one would not expect gold to be 183 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 7: out where we are now. But gold is a hybrid 184 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 7: of microeconomic and geopolitical factors plus those micro ones, and 185 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 7: what's been propelling gold this year has been well, primarily 186 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 7: geopolitical risk, a risk of all kinds. 187 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 6: Actually, who's buying gold? Is it the Chinese Central Bank? 188 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 6: Is it Chinese individuals? Is it the United States? Who's 189 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 6: buying this stuff? 190 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 7: China and India where fifty percent of all the physical 191 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 7: gold demand in the world lies really has been yes, 192 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 7: and fifty percent of jewelry as well. I don't want 193 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 7: to keep repeating fifty percent, but fifty percent of all 194 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 7: gold demand is in jewelry physical demand, and fifty percent 195 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 7: of all gold demand including jewelry is bought in China 196 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 7: and India, So they are they are massive importers, and 197 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,559 Speaker 7: they have cooled in recent months. We had a jump 198 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 7: in India in August because they reduced the tariffs, but 199 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:54,319 Speaker 7: that was a pretty much a one off. And we 200 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 7: know by looking at the Mumbai discounter premium to London 201 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:03,679 Speaker 7: and the Shanghai premium or discount to London that demand 202 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 7: is soft. So who's buying it? Then that's investors who 203 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 7: are not buying jewelry, not necessarily buying coins or small bars. 204 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:16,559 Speaker 7: They're buying large bars, or they're buying on the over 205 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 7: the countermarket. These are asset managers, hedge funds, commodity trading advisors, 206 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 7: because they've been getting positive technical signals, and we shouldn't 207 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 7: forget the people that really helped kick the whole gold 208 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 7: rally off. Central bank demand is not at the red 209 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 7: hot levels of last year or the year before, but 210 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 7: it's still substantial. 211 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:40,680 Speaker 6: How do you think about gold in the context of 212 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 6: bitcoin against Tom mentioned we've got bitcoin now over one 213 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 6: hundred thousand dollars per token. I mean, what's the relationship there, 214 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 6: if any. 215 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 7: From your perspective, Well, I think you have to ask 216 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 7: you have to ask yourself what is the nature of 217 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 7: these two instruments and why why do we buy gold 218 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:03,559 Speaker 7: versus something else? Well, you buy gold for the physicality, 219 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:07,079 Speaker 7: You're able to touch it, you're able to store it, 220 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:09,559 Speaker 7: will store it for you or other bullion banks will 221 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 7: store it for you, which. 222 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:12,960 Speaker 6: We still need a tour of your vault there. 223 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:21,200 Speaker 7: It's it's difficult these days. And you know we do. 224 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 1: We do. 225 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 7: We do have a substantial vault or operations globally. Uh. 226 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:29,000 Speaker 7: And the difference between gold. One of the differences between 227 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 7: gold bitcoin is you can you can hold gold, you 228 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 7: can have it. Also, it's the longevity. And I'm not 229 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 7: a plus or a negative on on on the on 230 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 7: the bitcoin front, I'm agnostic. But gold has a long 231 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 7: history of being an excellent portfolio diversifier and that's one 232 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 7: of the reasons that central banks want it. 233 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:53,959 Speaker 3: James, still a delicate question. 234 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 2: I don't want you in trouble with the General counsel 235 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 2: and I'm sure is tuned in to this conversation at HSBC. 236 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:03,439 Speaker 2: But the basic idea in the ft and also the 237 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal had this really serious money laundering acquisitions 238 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:12,080 Speaker 2: with tether being the big cooin stable coin currency a 239 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:14,839 Speaker 2: choice if you will in the digital world. 240 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 3: Is gold used for money laundering? 241 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 2: It's it's it's like too heavy, right, yes, effectively if 242 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 2: there's not a criminal tone. No, within the greater gold universe. No. 243 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 7: And and and here's where you know, the London Bullion 244 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 7: Market Association, headed by Ruth Kroll, has really been excellent, 245 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 7: you know in this uh for sourcing gold, where does. 246 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 3: It come from? 247 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 7: Making sure that it's not being mined in places that 248 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 7: are exploiting. 249 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 3: The population? 250 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 7: Uh, tracking it. We only accept London Bulliant Market good delivery, 251 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 7: as would any other bullion bank. Right, and so therefore 252 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 7: it's just not it's not It's also not as easy 253 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 7: as to steal it. It's not like the movies where 254 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 7: you see all these blokes throwing gold into the back 255 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 7: of a van after they've broken into something. It is 256 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 7: dense and it is heavy. 257 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 2: Okay, this is great, James still thank you so much. 258 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 2: An annual visitor in the State of Gold. 259 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 260 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 261 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 262 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 263 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,479 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 264 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 3: Joining us right now. Thrilled. 265 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 2: I'm really honored that we could have him today. Is 266 00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 2: someone with a global perspective. His initial acclaim with the 267 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 2: Bush Senior administration on Northern Ireland Richard hasse Of course, 268 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 2: I'm going to say, really the reinvigoration of the Council 269 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 2: on Foreign Relations. 270 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 3: He is with center view. Ambassador Hause, thank you for 271 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 3: joining us. I think we forget that Soul, Korea is thirty. 272 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 2: Five miles from the Demilitarized Zone the DMZ. How does 273 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 2: the tension of North Korea and South Korea fold into 274 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 2: the shock of government collapse in tests in Seoul? 275 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 5: Good question, Tom, Good morning. I think the issue is 276 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 5: whether North Korea, which is obviously watching what's going on 277 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 5: in South Korea with say more than a little interest, 278 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 5: whether they see this as a moment of some opportunity. 279 00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 5: This is in North Korea remains the most militarized country 280 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 5: in the world. You've got two large conventional armies or 281 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 5: raid against each other. You still have more than twenty 282 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 5: thousand American troops there. North Korea obviously also has a 283 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 5: missile and a growing nuclear force. So that's the danger 284 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:55,200 Speaker 5: here that they would see this as some a moment 285 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 5: of opportunity to exploit, and I would expect and hope 286 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 5: that South Korean and US forces would be at a 287 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 5: higher level of alert just to try to deter any 288 00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:05,680 Speaker 5: such thing. 289 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 2: June of twenty nineteen, President Trump meets Kim John Un. 290 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 3: We all remember that moment. 291 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:16,399 Speaker 2: What if that happens again, What is the signal to 292 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 2: South Korea if the President elect reducts is June of 293 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 2: twenty nineteen. 294 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 5: Look, the South Korean relationship with President Donald Trump was 295 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 5: one of the worst relations between an American ally and 296 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:34,880 Speaker 5: the United States. The President really pushed hard about why 297 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 5: wasn't South Korea doing more to pay for US troops there, 298 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 5: concerns about the trade and balance and so forth so much, 299 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:46,400 Speaker 5: and by the way, and threatened to pull US forces 300 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 5: out of South Korea. So if you were to once 301 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 5: again ratchet up the pressure. I think the most likely 302 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 5: reaction would be that South Korea would think very seriously, 303 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:03,679 Speaker 5: indeed about developing nuclear weapons of its own if it 304 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 5: came to lose faith in the United States. And that's 305 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 5: the sort of thing that, among other things, could cause 306 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 5: a real crisis with China. So there's a lot of 307 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 5: potential dynamics. 308 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:16,879 Speaker 6: Here, Richard, How concern should the average American be, or 309 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:18,960 Speaker 6: the average just observer in the West to be about 310 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 6: South Korea? This martial law news over the last couple 311 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 6: of days really caught I think everybody by surprise. How 312 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 6: concerned should we be about the stability of that part 313 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:28,399 Speaker 6: of the world. 314 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 5: It did catch everybody by surprise, including everybody in South Korea. 315 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 5: The good news is it went nowhere. You had the 316 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 5: declaration of martial law. The National Assembly met almost immediately repudiated, 317 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 5: public opinion repudiated it. The president back down very quickly. 318 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:49,440 Speaker 5: So to me, the larger story is a good one 319 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 5: about the resilience of South Korean democracy and institutions some 320 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 5: forty plus years since South Korea jo join the ranks 321 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 5: of the democracy. So I don't think we should be concerned. 322 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:06,000 Speaker 5: I actually think the big loser here is President Yun 323 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 5: and he'll obviously face now and an impeachment challenge, and 324 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 5: I'm not sure if he survives. Is what he said 325 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 5: in motion. He was unpopular before this, he's far more 326 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 5: unpopular now. He's lost a lot of legitimacy. But I 327 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:22,919 Speaker 5: actually think it's a good day for South Korean democracy. 328 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:26,199 Speaker 2: It is not quiet in December. We welcome all of 329 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:30,440 Speaker 2: you across the nation your morning commute. Bloomberg surveillance, too 330 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 2: much international relations. It seems we're focused on Paris and 331 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,240 Speaker 2: of course on what we see in seoulon with this, 332 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:40,640 Speaker 2: Richard Haas coming up, Ardichild Friedman and the currency markets, 333 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:44,639 Speaker 2: and we're looking forward to economic data here in twenty minutes, Paul. 334 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 6: Richard, let's move over to what we're seeing in Ukraine here. Boy, 335 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,880 Speaker 6: there's so many dynamics here, so many ebbs and flows here, 336 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:55,880 Speaker 6: with an incoming US administration here, how do you think 337 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,359 Speaker 6: this is going to play out over the coming months 338 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 6: in Ukraine? 339 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 5: Actually, uncharacteristically, I hope you're all sitting down there upbeat. 340 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 5: I actually think over twenty twenty five, while the battlefield 341 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,199 Speaker 5: will continue, I think attention's going to move to the 342 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:18,120 Speaker 5: negotiating table. The person Donald Trump is appointed Keith Kellogg, 343 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,879 Speaker 5: retired Army general. He was Mike Pence's National security advisor, 344 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,159 Speaker 5: but he's been appointed to be the point man for 345 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:30,360 Speaker 5: Ukraine and Russia. What he's recently written about the subject 346 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 5: I find incredibly Sensible's potentially on first going to Ukraine 347 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 5: saying we'll continue to provide arms, but you've got to 348 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 5: be willing to negotiate in good faith and base the 349 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 5: negotiation pretty much on a ceasefire in place. And I 350 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,479 Speaker 5: think the Ukraine government has come around to that if 351 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,119 Speaker 5: you listen to what mister Zelenski's saying, and then the 352 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,919 Speaker 5: question is whether they can bring Russia around. But to me, 353 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 5: it's all good news. There's a focus on negotiations. No 354 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:59,400 Speaker 5: one's talking about throwing Ukraine under the bus, and very quickly, 355 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:01,520 Speaker 5: I think the pressure is going to be on Vladimir 356 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 5: Putin to meet Ukraine halfway. So I don't think it's 357 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 5: crazy optimistic to say in twenty twenty five, by the 358 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:10,639 Speaker 5: end of that year, so a year from now we 359 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 5: could be seeing real progress diplomatically. I'm actually optimistic about it. 360 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 6: Richard, how do you think how would you characterize the 361 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 6: relationship today with President elect Trump and Putin? Is it 362 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 6: going to be constructive? Is can we move the ball 363 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:29,159 Speaker 6: forward on a number of issues? What's that relationship like? 364 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:36,640 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's the right question. The atmospherics have often been good. 365 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,439 Speaker 5: The substance. Who knows. Look, you've got Ukraine. That'll be 366 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 5: probably the first early test. We'll see if mister Trump 367 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:46,159 Speaker 5: can persuade Putin to dial down his relationship with North Korea. 368 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 5: That'll be a second test a year after Donald Trump 369 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 5: resumes his presidency because and re enters the Oval Office, 370 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 5: the new Starred Arms Control Framework all is set to expire, 371 00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 5: So we're going to learn there as well. Can the 372 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 5: Trump administration and Putin? Can they extend the nuclear arms 373 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:09,639 Speaker 5: agreements that have been so central to international stability. So 374 00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:13,399 Speaker 5: there's any number of issues. So I'm not in the 375 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 5: predictions business, and I don't think there's any way of knowing, 376 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,959 Speaker 5: but we're going to have some pretty early indications beginning 377 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:19,560 Speaker 5: with Ukraine. 378 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 2: Richard Hass look at your work with the consult Foreign 379 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:27,640 Speaker 2: Relations and your ability to write prodigiously about this. 380 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,119 Speaker 3: Let us stop and go back. 381 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 2: To really an important work foreign policy begins at home. 382 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 2: How are we doing, Richard Hass, how are we doing 383 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 2: in building out our domestic structure to project internationally? 384 00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 5: If I were still a professor, I give us a 385 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 5: pretty low grade. I'm not sure I give us a 386 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:56,200 Speaker 5: passing grade. We're extraordinarily divided, which makes it increasingly difficult 387 00:22:57,160 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 5: to be consistent and reliable, either for our friends or 388 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:05,360 Speaker 5: against our fos. We're also been unsuccessful at tackling many 389 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 5: of our domestic challenges. Just take two. One is the 390 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 5: border situation, and if people in this country see real 391 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 5: problems here at home, they don't have the bandwidth, they 392 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 5: don't have the focus on the rest of the world. 393 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 5: The other something you talk a lot about on your 394 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,480 Speaker 5: program here, which is the deficit and debt. And again 395 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,400 Speaker 5: we'll see whether we have the collective will to tackle 396 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 5: to tackle that. It's interesting the numbers that are brought 397 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 5: down the French government running a deficit to GDP ratio 398 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 5: about six or so percent. Guess what that's where we are, 399 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 5: and our cumulative debt is essentially now what equal to 400 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 5: our GDP? So we're in serious water. So I think 401 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:51,159 Speaker 5: there's real issues about our focus, our political consensus, and 402 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 5: also just the resource availability for the United States to 403 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:56,720 Speaker 5: play the kind of role in the world that we 404 00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,040 Speaker 5: have for what eighty years now, and then I would 405 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,120 Speaker 5: argue has served us in the world pretty well. 406 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:02,880 Speaker 3: You were a young, laded Oberman. 407 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 2: There's a photo out of Paul Sweeney of Barneier. I 408 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 2: think he couldn't shave he was so young and pompadou, 409 00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 2: which harkens back to folks in nineteen sixty two in 410 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 2: the collapse of another French government Richard hass a question 411 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:21,159 Speaker 2: I asked our Stephen Coe earlier, should we get ready 412 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,199 Speaker 2: for a sixth French Republic? 413 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:26,840 Speaker 5: A good question, but the problems to me aren't so 414 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 5: much mechanical tom as political. So you have the left 415 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 5: and the right voting down the Prime Minister, and all 416 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 5: this comes against the backdrop of I think mccrome, mishandling 417 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 5: French politics calling for snap elections when they are unlikely 418 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 5: to result in anything good. But the real question is 419 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,080 Speaker 5: what is the left and the right willing to vote for? 420 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,359 Speaker 5: So it's the issue is not just Barneer. The issue 421 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 5: is not mechanical like it was with the Fourth Republic. 422 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,959 Speaker 5: The real question to me is do you have a 423 00:24:55,960 --> 00:25:01,000 Speaker 5: consensus in France to take some difficult decisions about spending, taxation, 424 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,640 Speaker 5: and the rest. Sounds familiar I expect, and I don't 425 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 5: think that can be fixed mechanically with rewriting the rules 426 00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,919 Speaker 5: of French politics. And you couldn't rewrite the rules in 427 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 5: any case quickly enough we'll get approval of them. There's 428 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 5: no figure like the gall who could ram it through 429 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,040 Speaker 5: the French political system. So I think we're pretty much 430 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 5: stuck with the Fifth Republic. 431 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:22,960 Speaker 3: Thank you so much for the time. 432 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:26,200 Speaker 2: Richard Hass, of course, with cent of you partners, can't 433 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 2: say enough about his work with the Council on Foreign 434 00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,840 Speaker 2: Relations and Foreign Affairs magazine as well. 435 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:37,440 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 436 00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,720 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 437 00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,680 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 438 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 439 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. 440 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,679 Speaker 2: Right now, with a window into your Washington, Professor Schiller 441 00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 2: joins from Bown University, Wendy. I look at the zeitgeist 442 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 2: out of Washington, and it seems like a Senate ascend 443 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 2: it trying to find their place within this era of 444 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:08,439 Speaker 2: executive power. Do you sense that that the Senate is 445 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:12,320 Speaker 2: gaining traction in what they want to do in this 446 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,440 Speaker 2: new mix, Well. 447 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 8: I think Tom and Paul, good morning, and Lisa and 448 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:22,720 Speaker 8: John again, I think that it really makes you think 449 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:24,240 Speaker 8: about the majorities. 450 00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,080 Speaker 9: So fifty three forty seven doesn't. 451 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,800 Speaker 8: Sound like a lot, but it's just enough to give 452 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 8: John Thune, who's the Republican leader, who will be the 453 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:36,600 Speaker 8: Republican leader after January third, enough room Tom to sort 454 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,919 Speaker 8: of negotiate with Trump on one side and a fractious 455 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,360 Speaker 8: Senate Republican party on the other. And that's the difference 456 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:47,280 Speaker 8: that a fifty one versus three forty seven makes. And 457 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:49,360 Speaker 8: the House, I don't know if they're gonna be able 458 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,120 Speaker 8: to do anything, which is of concern because constitutionally they 459 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 8: do generate. They are the originators of tax and trade bills. 460 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:58,359 Speaker 8: So this makes you nervous that the majority could on 461 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,440 Speaker 8: a bad day for Republicans. 462 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 9: Do not exists in the House. So all eyes on 463 00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 9: John Thune right. 464 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 2: Now, Professor Shuler, I think so important here to those 465 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,199 Speaker 2: of us not expert is one of the consequences. So 466 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 2: Murkowski and Collins of Maine, they're in the Trump timeout 467 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,960 Speaker 2: chair I get that Collins Appropriations Committee chairman to be 468 00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:20,639 Speaker 2: I believe, what are the consequences to a given senator 469 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:25,560 Speaker 2: who joins Murkowski and Collins pushing against the president elect? 470 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,119 Speaker 2: Are they not invited to the Christmas Party? 471 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 3: I mean, what are the consequences. 472 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:32,160 Speaker 9: Tim's primary challenges? 473 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:35,119 Speaker 8: I mean, Trump is riding probably the highest level of 474 00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:39,080 Speaker 8: approval he's ever had, and I think now's in a 475 00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,119 Speaker 8: position where he can say I'm going to annoint this 476 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 8: person to run against you, Joni. 477 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,400 Speaker 9: Ernst in Iowa. That's what I'm looking at, particularly on the. 478 00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,520 Speaker 8: Hegseth nomination, because she's up in twenty six in Iowa, 479 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:49,440 Speaker 8: and you. 480 00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,320 Speaker 9: Know, she had a sort of closer race last time. 481 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:53,320 Speaker 8: But I think you know, she's probably expected to win 482 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,359 Speaker 8: pretty easily if Trump doesn't find somebody else to run 483 00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:57,360 Speaker 8: against her in the primary. 484 00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,639 Speaker 9: So I think that's what these senators are worried about. 485 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:01,840 Speaker 9: But if three. 486 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 8: Republican women come out and say they can't vote for Hegseth, 487 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 8: then I don't think it survives. 488 00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 9: So I think this is where it's important to have 489 00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:10,440 Speaker 9: the numbers. 490 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,280 Speaker 8: In each of these cabinet nominations in terms of objecting 491 00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:14,880 Speaker 8: to what Trump wants, So. 492 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,560 Speaker 6: To what extent, I guess, Professor, do you think the 493 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:21,320 Speaker 6: Senate will challenge or put up some roadblocks for some 494 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:25,560 Speaker 6: of the more contentious nominees here, mister Hegseth, Telsea Gabbard 495 00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 6: and some others. 496 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:28,639 Speaker 9: Well, Paul, I. 497 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:30,080 Speaker 8: Mean, I don't think they're in a position to really 498 00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 8: put up big roadblocks. I think they're just trying to 499 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,159 Speaker 8: stay on the road right now with Donald Trump and 500 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,520 Speaker 8: not get run off the road, and so that they 501 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:40,840 Speaker 8: can actually exercise their constitutional responsibility to even have confirmation hearings. 502 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 8: It looks like they're getting through to that, which was 503 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 8: in doubt like two weeks ago, but now it looks 504 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,160 Speaker 8: like they've said, look, we'll get it done, but give 505 00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 8: us our space to do this. And it looks like 506 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,480 Speaker 8: Foon is preserving that power which strengthens Thoon internally in 507 00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:56,040 Speaker 8: the Senate. 508 00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,200 Speaker 9: So how much will Trump let or Trump's advisors let 509 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 9: Thuon be that strong. We're going about to see that 510 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 9: in the next couple of weeks. 511 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:08,240 Speaker 2: What are you observing here on the summation of the 512 00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:13,480 Speaker 2: attorney of Mett Gates over to FBI. I have found, 513 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 2: as the amateur here at Professor Schuler that the heat, 514 00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:21,440 Speaker 2: the level against the FBI designate is just extraordinary. 515 00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:22,560 Speaker 3: Am I right on that? 516 00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:23,520 Speaker 4: Yeah? 517 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 8: I mean I think there is this is a huge 518 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 8: moment in American you know, law enforcement history. 519 00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 9: Right. I wasn't really I wasn't allowed. 520 00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,320 Speaker 8: For really to know j Edgar Hoover, right, I ran 521 00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 8: FBI for at least fifty years or something, and he really, 522 00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 8: one could say, abused the power of the FBI. 523 00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:42,680 Speaker 9: So it's taken a long time. 524 00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 8: For the FBI to come back from that, and under 525 00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 8: Chris Ray, I think it's been restored a little bit. 526 00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,760 Speaker 8: But this is you know, fiercely in the MAGA community 527 00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:54,640 Speaker 8: and anti federal law enforcement ethos. 528 00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:56,720 Speaker 9: So this is what Trump is playing to. 529 00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,400 Speaker 8: And Trump himself probably does not have any love for 530 00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:03,000 Speaker 8: the FBI, but the FBI does incredibly important work, particularly 531 00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:06,080 Speaker 8: on terrorism, domestic and international and other things. So I 532 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,160 Speaker 8: think the Senate wants to make sure there's a functioning FBI. 533 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:11,960 Speaker 8: So that's where this is a moment in time and 534 00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 8: history for federal law enforcement, and it could be severely 535 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,880 Speaker 8: weakened and undermined. I don't think that's what most senators. 536 00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 6: Want, Professor. The first one hundred days of any incoming 537 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:27,000 Speaker 6: administration are absolutely critical. What do you expect this administration 538 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:28,880 Speaker 6: to really focus on the first one hundred days? 539 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:30,960 Speaker 9: Typically, Paul I would agree with you. 540 00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,840 Speaker 8: I'd saye hundred days really matters to Donald Trump. One thing, 541 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,800 Speaker 8: it's his second term, not a first. So I don't 542 00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 8: know that it's that crucial this one hundred day marker. 543 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,240 Speaker 8: It's those of Donald Trump, and the power he wields 544 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,560 Speaker 8: among his voters his supporters is something we haven't seen 545 00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,280 Speaker 8: in a long time in terms of reverse pressure on Congress. 546 00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,520 Speaker 8: So I think that power lasts, you know, for a while, 547 00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,680 Speaker 8: well beyond one hundred days, as long as the economy 548 00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,400 Speaker 8: keeps looking like it's getting better and. 549 00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,080 Speaker 9: Inflation stays stable. 550 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:03,080 Speaker 8: If the economy does not stay stable and inflation does 551 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 8: tick up, then I think that popular support for Trump 552 00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:09,120 Speaker 8: a roads and his clout with Congress or roads and 553 00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:10,000 Speaker 8: a proportion to that. 554 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,760 Speaker 6: So what's what are the next mile posts that we 555 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:14,520 Speaker 6: need to be focused on? 556 00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:14,960 Speaker 2: Professor? 557 00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:18,160 Speaker 6: Here between now an inauguration day for President elect Trump 558 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 6: and his administration, I. 559 00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,760 Speaker 8: Think the reaction to his nominees is very important. 560 00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,360 Speaker 9: I think that he's making more foreign trips. This was 561 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:28,360 Speaker 9: a guy who didn't really like to cross the pond. 562 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:30,880 Speaker 8: Now he's going to France to go to Notre Dame 563 00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:33,959 Speaker 8: for its opening. He seems like he now wants to 564 00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:38,320 Speaker 8: be forgiven, so to speak, or accepted into the international club. 565 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,000 Speaker 8: And I think we're going to see some developments, even 566 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,840 Speaker 8: though he's not even president yet, on foreign policy. He's 567 00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,680 Speaker 8: going to want to be the guy that solves Russia, 568 00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:50,120 Speaker 8: Ukraine and solves the Middle East because what's left to do, 569 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:52,680 Speaker 8: and he can show up Biden in that respect. 570 00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:54,960 Speaker 9: So I do think you're going to see a bigger shift, 571 00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:55,720 Speaker 9: a bigger set. 572 00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:59,120 Speaker 8: Of attentions paid to foreign policy for Trump, and starting 573 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,000 Speaker 8: now with some of these national trips. 574 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:02,960 Speaker 3: What did you show it? Thank you so much. 575 00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:12,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 576 00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:15,440 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on 577 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:18,040 Speaker 1: Apple car Play and and Broyt Auto with a Bloomberg 578 00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,600 Speaker 1: Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 579 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:25,440 Speaker 2: You look at the front pages of Lisa Matteo Hour Lisa. 580 00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,720 Speaker 10: Oh, Tom, I know you love your bow ties, but 581 00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:29,880 Speaker 10: this story sitt out to me because of you. The 582 00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:33,040 Speaker 10: necktie making an office comeback. This was in the Wall 583 00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,720 Speaker 10: Street Journal. Yes, this is a place where you see 584 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:43,440 Speaker 10: the dress, sneakers, Yes, always talks about David Weston dress. Yes, yes, yes, 585 00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:47,480 Speaker 10: But who is wearing the necktie? So apparently it's the 586 00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,000 Speaker 10: twenty something crowd. Like a lot of the interns. They're 587 00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 10: coming in. They want to make an impression, they say, 588 00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:56,280 Speaker 10: help show their personality, gives them confidence. But women also 589 00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,120 Speaker 10: getting in on the action. Nope, it commands a room, 590 00:32:59,160 --> 00:32:59,720 Speaker 10: that's what they say. 591 00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:00,160 Speaker 9: It's art. 592 00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,840 Speaker 10: It's a conversation. It's becoming like the hot accessory, like 593 00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,840 Speaker 10: shoes or jewelry. So now the women have neck ties, 594 00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:09,320 Speaker 10: but some saying that sometimes they're more decked out than 595 00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:12,000 Speaker 10: the bosses. The boss comes in, you knows, cash and 596 00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:16,440 Speaker 10: the sneakers and everything. Boat ties and not bow ties, neckties, 597 00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:18,920 Speaker 10: the actual long necktie. 598 00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:19,640 Speaker 3: We just had. 599 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,920 Speaker 2: I haven't worn one since the time began. We just 600 00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,160 Speaker 2: had a meeting and we're dressed to the nines and 601 00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:30,120 Speaker 2: the guy walks in and he's like San Francisco cash. Yeah, 602 00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:34,040 Speaker 2: And this is dead on that. There's like bouncing cultures 603 00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:34,600 Speaker 2: going on. 604 00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:36,960 Speaker 6: It's all started with the dot com boom in the 605 00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,800 Speaker 6: late nineties. That's when I sensed it yes, and for 606 00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:41,000 Speaker 6: a couple of years. 607 00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 7: I did go casual, but then did you? 608 00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:46,560 Speaker 6: And then the market crash in two thousand and let's 609 00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:47,360 Speaker 6: get back to where you. 610 00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:49,400 Speaker 2: Go cash here when you're working a three day week 611 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,840 Speaker 2: in the summer, you know, I mean you were in Dior' 612 00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,440 Speaker 2: of course you were in Montclair, you know exactly. 613 00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,800 Speaker 10: Well, the pandemic kind of sparked that like cash thing too, 614 00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:01,600 Speaker 10: because the work from home, and then some people slowly 615 00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:03,520 Speaker 10: transition to dressing nicer. 616 00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:09,880 Speaker 3: But Damien sasour everything he wears. I'm taking next. 617 00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:14,319 Speaker 10: Okay, Taylor Swift, remember the concert book that came out 618 00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:18,240 Speaker 10: in Target on Black Friday. Well, apparently it did really well, 619 00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:21,239 Speaker 10: Sir Kana book Skins that had sold eight hundred and 620 00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:26,319 Speaker 10: fourteen thousand copies the first two days. The only one 621 00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,960 Speaker 10: to beat it is actually former President Barack Obama as 622 00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,800 Speaker 10: a promised land But think about it. His book was 623 00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:35,600 Speaker 10: sold at all major retailers. Swift's only exclusively at Target, 624 00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:39,120 Speaker 10: so just a Target alone, she sold that many. But 625 00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:41,600 Speaker 10: the Wall Street Journal also points to experts who say 626 00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:43,400 Speaker 10: artists really need to take out a page out of 627 00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,920 Speaker 10: that book because when it comes to concerts, they need 628 00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:48,880 Speaker 10: to follow the success story that she's done, Like she's 629 00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:52,120 Speaker 10: popularized a long concert. I mean hers are three hours 630 00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,160 Speaker 10: fifteen minutes plus. 631 00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:56,319 Speaker 3: What's the shortest Bruce concert you've ever met? 632 00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:58,800 Speaker 6: Again and a half hours? 633 00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:03,000 Speaker 3: It does know that low seventy Yeah, you know. 634 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,840 Speaker 10: Did you say the statistic was eight hundred thousand, eight 635 00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:08,919 Speaker 10: hundred and fourteen thousand copies. 636 00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,719 Speaker 2: When Alexander Hamilton came out ron Chernow I interviewed him, 637 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:16,480 Speaker 2: the great great Ronch. He single handedly changed the publishing 638 00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:21,040 Speaker 2: business when he sold over three hundred thousand hardcovers of 639 00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:24,880 Speaker 2: Alexander Hamilton. So think about that, he changed the business 640 00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:28,319 Speaker 2: with three hundred thousand plus and here's Swift doing eight 641 00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:29,120 Speaker 2: hundred thousand. 642 00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,440 Speaker 10: Everything she touched on, but also the things she does, 643 00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:34,399 Speaker 10: like for the concerts to get people, like they say, 644 00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:37,480 Speaker 10: artists need to think attract more women. Because you had 645 00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:40,319 Speaker 10: the mothers and the daughters who attended together, had the 646 00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:44,640 Speaker 10: DIY bracelets. That's another thing mini residencies. You know how 647 00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,280 Speaker 10: she does the longer stays. That's like another big. 648 00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:48,120 Speaker 3: Thing that surveillance. 649 00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:52,600 Speaker 2: Know, we remember our key interview foundational interview with Amy 650 00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:53,560 Speaker 2: wou Silverman. 651 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,719 Speaker 3: Yes, her daughter Taylor waved at them. 652 00:35:57,040 --> 00:36:00,440 Speaker 6: Yes, I just bought them. I just bought tickets for 653 00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,680 Speaker 6: the Eagles at the Sphere in Vegas for April. 654 00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:05,840 Speaker 9: How about that? 655 00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:10,080 Speaker 6: That was an impulse purchase that sometimes regret. I've been 656 00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:13,960 Speaker 6: done in the evening after a couple of cocktails. No, 657 00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,120 Speaker 6: this is not REHD is not taking. 658 00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:17,839 Speaker 3: Vince skills with them now. 659 00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:19,960 Speaker 5: Yeah, very okay, very good. 660 00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:21,000 Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm looking forward to that. 661 00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:21,960 Speaker 3: There's histories. 662 00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:25,400 Speaker 10: After a few cocktails, I purchased Zach Bryan country tickets 663 00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:29,200 Speaker 10: for my daughter at MSG. I regret that kind of 664 00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:30,920 Speaker 10: not but anyway, that costs me a lot. 665 00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:33,160 Speaker 3: Dangerous they are. 666 00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:35,640 Speaker 6: It's all about the experiences now least, it's not about 667 00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:36,920 Speaker 6: goods and certain about experience. 668 00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,680 Speaker 10: No, she's picking out her country off its already. Next 669 00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:43,200 Speaker 10: next we got Business Insider. They had their report on 670 00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:48,440 Speaker 10: how important influencers those affiliate marketers have become for Cyber Monday. No, 671 00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:52,839 Speaker 10: not exactly, but the Doobe analytics they drove about twenty 672 00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:55,480 Speaker 10: percent of US Cyber Monday revenue. How they do it 673 00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,040 Speaker 10: They post these affiliate links. That's how they make their 674 00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:00,200 Speaker 10: money because that link is a link to their and 675 00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,440 Speaker 10: that's how you know. Depending on the commission they make. 676 00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:04,480 Speaker 10: That's what it goes by. So they're saying a lot 677 00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:07,320 Speaker 10: more people click on the links than just regular posts. 678 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,560 Speaker 10: So they're saying, these affiliate marketers are the ones that 679 00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,560 Speaker 10: are really starting to push these online sales, especially through 680 00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:13,240 Speaker 10: social media. 681 00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,960 Speaker 6: They're making money just on a thirty second spot on 682 00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:18,319 Speaker 6: radio TV and that's how you. 683 00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:18,520 Speaker 2: Nope, nope. 684 00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:21,200 Speaker 10: Now now these big companies are going to the influencer. 685 00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:22,359 Speaker 9: Sure he could. 686 00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:24,040 Speaker 10: I think we can make that happen. 687 00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,120 Speaker 6: Yeah, tank. 688 00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:34,440 Speaker 10: Sponsored by Tang. Yes, finally there's been a change. Cognac 689 00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:37,399 Speaker 10: champagne makers, they're seeing they're looking to boost their US 690 00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:42,120 Speaker 10: exports ahead of Trump's them talking about foreign countries. Yes, yes, yes, 691 00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:44,799 Speaker 10: I mean France has not been part of that. But 692 00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:48,719 Speaker 10: you have companies like LVMH, Cognac brand Hennessy sources saying 693 00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:52,440 Speaker 10: their increasing consignment to the US following his Trump's victory. 694 00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:55,440 Speaker 10: They want to do the same with Moet Champagne. But 695 00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,280 Speaker 10: a lot about twenty seven million champagne bottles were shipped 696 00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,960 Speaker 10: to the US last year, so they're saying that this 697 00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,240 Speaker 10: is starting. You're starting to see a shift and companies 698 00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:05,400 Speaker 10: are going to likely to redrect those bottles even that 699 00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,080 Speaker 10: would have gone to China, so there might be she's 700 00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:08,840 Speaker 10: such a hitter. 701 00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:11,120 Speaker 3: You see how she pronounces. 702 00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:17,360 Speaker 2: It is that it's because they're from eastern France and 703 00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:18,880 Speaker 2: they pronounced like X. 704 00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:19,440 Speaker 7: Is that right. 705 00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:28,560 Speaker 2: It's like, you know, they a regional accent. Lisa, Thank 706 00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:30,320 Speaker 2: you so much, Lisa Matteo. 707 00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,600 Speaker 3: With our newspapers, we do each and every day. 708 00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:37,560 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 709 00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:41,840 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 710 00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:44,880 Speaker 1: seven to ten a m. Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 711 00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:48,520 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 712 00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:51,880 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 713 00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:53,960 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal