1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays 3 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,799 Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on applecar Player, Android Auto with 4 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:23,280 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get 5 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 2: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 3: Tina Fordham has been a huge benefit to us geopolitical 7 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 3: strategist for him Global Foresight. 8 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 4: Tina, just a window into this. How did you end. 9 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 3: Up with Ibraham Robari? The guy is a triple a 10 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,199 Speaker 3: horse at City Group. He's out there. How did you 11 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 3: and Ibrahim Robari get together? 12 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 5: Well, aberm and I. 13 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 6: Work together on William Bowder's Global Macro team, and is 14 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:53,639 Speaker 6: our immense good fortune to have him working with us 15 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 6: as a senior advisor. 16 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 5: So I'm absolutely thrilled. 17 00:00:57,480 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 3: Just absolutely wonderful. I want to take a bigger, broader 18 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 3: approach here. And you go into the wonderful work up 19 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,399 Speaker 3: of Harvard the book, folks, it really became part of 20 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 3: international relations. How democracies die. Stephen Levitsky and Daniels iblet 21 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 3: up at Harvard and you pick up their phrase norm 22 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,039 Speaker 3: erosion and say we're living it? 23 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 4: What norm erosion? Tina Fordham? Are we going to see 24 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 4: next year, well, we're. 25 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 5: Already seeing it. 26 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 6: And this is part of my you know, my my 27 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:32,959 Speaker 6: pledge to try to prevent us from seeing all of 28 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:37,720 Speaker 6: these you know, disparate developments as idiosyncratic and one off. 29 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 6: Norm erosion can be everything from why our nieces and 30 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 6: nephews don't send us thank you notes for Christmas presents, 31 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:53,639 Speaker 6: to the role of unelected advisors in the White House 32 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 6: to the end of kind of customs. Norms are not 33 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 6: necessarily rule. There's certainly not laws, and I'm going to 34 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 6: argue that they matter as much to our ability to 35 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,799 Speaker 6: conduct business as laws do. 36 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 7: So for twenty twenty five, Tina given norm erosion, geopolitical 37 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:22,080 Speaker 7: denihalism is another theme. I know you're focused on, what 38 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 7: are your themes for twenty twenty five for investors as 39 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 7: I think about geopolitics and the impact on markets. 40 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 6: I'm not sure how many investors want to think about 41 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:37,440 Speaker 6: geopolitics because we've already seen the you know, the euphoria 42 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 6: you know now tempered to focus on the positive aspects 43 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 6: of Trump's agenda deregulation, and these are you know, these 44 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 6: are no doubt going to be positive, They're going to 45 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 6: be especially positive for US markets. But as you know, 46 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 6: I'm based in London. I have coined the concept of 47 00:02:55,760 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 6: geopolitical denialism, borrowing a little bit from climate denihilism, and 48 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 6: I'm suggesting that this is like being a flat earther 49 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 6: when it comes to thinking about geopolitics, because take the 50 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 6: example of Syria, not a market moving event, nor one 51 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 6: that we would expect to be, but it's the second 52 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 6: and third order effects of geopolitics that matter. So times 53 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 6: are good in US markets, But I'm suggesting developments like 54 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 6: Trump's recent comments, shall we say, questioning the validity of 55 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 6: Greenland belonging to Denmark and the Panama Canal belonging to 56 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 6: Panama are important. 57 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:43,119 Speaker 5: They are significant. 58 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 6: They're not going to move markets, but they are extremely 59 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 6: important because they suggest challenges to the rules of the 60 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 6: game and indeed something potentially more significant, And they're also 61 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 6: big geostrategic implications. 62 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 5: Those are not two random choices. 63 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 7: For investors in just markets in general. Does that suggest 64 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 7: over the next year, if not four years, maybe investors 65 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 7: kind of rein in some of the risk taking because 66 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 7: some of the geopolitics, maybe emanating from the US White 67 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 7: House could be really problematic. 68 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 5: I think You're going. 69 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 6: To see a lot of changes in stance, a lot 70 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:26,839 Speaker 6: of developments that maybe more behind the scenes than say an. 71 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 5: Event risk like a terrorist attack or a hot war. 72 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 6: What would the US need to do to, as Trump 73 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:38,159 Speaker 6: would put it, regain control of the Panama Canal? Could 74 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:41,839 Speaker 6: this be done through non military means? I think looking 75 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 6: at what military strategists called gray zone actions, which can 76 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 6: be commercial, they can be legal, and through kind of 77 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 6: salami tactics can really change the facts on the ground. 78 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:59,040 Speaker 6: Right now, Russia and China have made clear that they 79 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 6: don't believe that US hedge of money should continue. And 80 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 6: what means will they use for that? Maybe more important 81 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 6: to your question for our CEO clients, for anyone with 82 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 6: a complex supply chain. But these are big, great power 83 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 6: challenges being played out through these small places. 84 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 3: Tina Fordham with is Fordham Global Foresight here as we 85 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 3: look at international relations into next Yearatina, just a question 86 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:31,799 Speaker 3: that came up this weekend. I think it's an amateur 87 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 3: I'm saying, there's a presidential tradition of giving ambassadors to 88 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:38,160 Speaker 3: people that gave. 89 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 4: You a lot of money to get elected. Get it. 90 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 3: In all that, how do you, as a grizzled pro 91 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 3: respond to the ambassador's selections we're seeing from President elect Trump. 92 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:54,559 Speaker 3: We got a football player in the Bahamas, we got 93 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 3: a father in law son in law kind of thing 94 00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 3: in Paris, and on and on. 95 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 4: How do you respond? And is it just business usual? 96 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:05,600 Speaker 3: Is there something different going on in our ambassadorships? 97 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 6: First of all, I would like to reject the characterization 98 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 6: of myself as grizzled on anything pro. 99 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 5: Yes, I missrizzled, grizzled you know you can, yeah, Lisa later. 100 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 3: And I said it, and Lisa threw a gluten free 101 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 3: role at me. 102 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 5: You're thank you, Lisa, Thank you, Lisa. Someone we have 103 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:30,359 Speaker 5: to stick up for each other. But oh right, So 104 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 5: what's this getting on? That there's a lot of eye 105 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 5: rolling going on? You know. 106 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:41,600 Speaker 6: The expectation is that UK US and France, US and 107 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 6: German US relations, you know, will continue, even if there 108 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 6: is someone less than a grizzled old pro in the ambassadorship. 109 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:54,159 Speaker 5: It hasn't always been the case, by the way that. 110 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 6: Donors were awarded these plum kinds of post. I mean, 111 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 6: I'm thinking about people Pamela Harriman and Paris and others, 112 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:08,359 Speaker 6: but Europe is not pushing back on any of this, 113 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 6: and you know, taking a stoic approach because you have 114 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 6: to choose your battles. Everyone wants to work with this administration, 115 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 6: and we will see just how robust the you know, 116 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 6: the relationships are and the channels of communication and the 117 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 6: areas of cooperation. 118 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 7: Tina, as we kind of think about twenty twenty five, 119 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 7: what are the what's maybe the key question you're getting 120 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 7: from your clients these days about your remit, which is 121 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 7: again geopolitics. 122 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 5: It couldn't be more broad. It is what's going to 123 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 5: happen because. 124 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:46,720 Speaker 6: You know, again at the you know, purely at the 125 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 6: market level, everyone you know buys the positive story, but 126 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 6: there's a lot of worry about what could possibly go wrong. 127 00:07:56,640 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 6: And even you know, tracking and monitoring risks as we do, 128 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 6: there are so many wild cards. And that's you know, 129 00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 6: got to be part of the playbook here to kind 130 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 6: of sow discontent and confusion. 131 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 5: I'm looking a lot. 132 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 6: At these small data points, developments that don't grab headlines, 133 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 6: like why is the Slovak president Robert Fico in Moscow? 134 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 5: Hello? 135 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:31,360 Speaker 6: That is not something that the European Union agrees with. 136 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 6: It's not a game changer. In the narrowest sense. But 137 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:41,480 Speaker 6: when you combine that with Hungarian President Victor Ravon seeing Putin, 138 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 6: what's been happening in Romania, none of these you know, 139 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 6: major economies. It adds up to Leaveridge that Putin has though, 140 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 6: because these countries are all on the receiving end or 141 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 6: were of Russian gas supplies. 142 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 5: So if we wait until old blown. 143 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 6: Event risk transpires, then we're not prepared for these downside surprises. 144 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 4: Tina, thank you so much. 145 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:14,479 Speaker 3: Tina Fordham with his Fordum Global Foresight. 146 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:20,319 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 147 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Easter Listen on 148 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 2: Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, 149 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 2: or watch us live on YouTube. 150 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 4: We're thrilled to get smarter with andrews Slimon. 151 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 3: Had a love come on applied to equity advisors. 152 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,880 Speaker 4: I don't have no idea that is at Morganeselli. What 153 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 4: Andrew Slimon. 154 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 3: Will give you as the courage to participate in the market. Andrew, 155 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 3: how do we get to a third double digit bull 156 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 3: market year? 157 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 8: Well, I think you have a combination of lower rates. 158 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:59,320 Speaker 8: Seven trillion sitting in the money markets that will search 159 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 8: for a new home or some of it will and 160 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 8: pro growth policies, and that's how you could get to 161 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 8: another double digit year for the equa market. 162 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 3: I look at it and as double digit earnings. Here 163 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:15,480 Speaker 3: Gena Martin Adams of Bloomberg Intelligence talking up fourteen percent. 164 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 3: Maybe it comes down to the security analysts at Morgan 165 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 3: Stanley get you to a double digit earnings growth year. 166 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, I you know. One of the things Tom, 167 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 8: that you know I've been on your show a lot. 168 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 8: I have been all pretty optimistic the last couple of years 169 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 8: is that it's not about valuation. It's about the direction 170 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:39,679 Speaker 8: of the change. And what's you know. I tell you know, 171 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 8: especially younger investors all the time, be very wary of 172 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:48,680 Speaker 8: valuate pure valuation tools as a methodology to evaluate the 173 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 8: stock market or a stock is cheap or extensive, because 174 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 8: sometimes analysts don't get the denominator the estimate right. And 175 00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:58,319 Speaker 8: really what's been going on in the last couple of 176 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 8: years is earnings have been stronger than what is expected 177 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 8: so far we have. I've seen a lot of predictions 178 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 8: that earnings are too strong for next year, but I 179 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 8: haven't seen those numbers come down yet. Uh and that 180 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 8: you know that does that's that falls into the positive camp. 181 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 3: I mean, Paul, that's Andrew Slayman says, Look, you got 182 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 3: to participate. 183 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 4: Yep, go to cash. It's not going to work. 184 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 9: Not gonna work. Hey, Andrew, we've got the FED cutting rates. 185 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 7: But now it looks like in twenty twenty five at 186 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 7: a slower pace than maybe the market had been anticipating. 187 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:34,559 Speaker 7: How does that impact your view of the equity market. 188 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think this is good news, good news. And 189 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 8: let me articulate why. What I have been worried about 190 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 8: is if you look at what's worked since July when 191 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 8: the FED said they're going to start to cut weight, 192 00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:52,080 Speaker 8: what has worked in the market is the is the 193 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 8: low quality what I would call junk growth stocks. A 194 00:11:56,400 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 8: lot of companies that don't you know, have high revenue estimates, 195 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 8: but nowhearn are very little earning very high multiples. High. 196 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 8: The more risk you have taken in the last six months, 197 00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 8: the better you have done. And that's a that scares 198 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:13,000 Speaker 8: me because that screens of the year twenty twenty one, 199 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 8: and we know what happened in twenty twenty two. The 200 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 8: market fell apart, so to the extent that I think 201 00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:24,079 Speaker 8: the FED has kind of encouraged that risk taking by saying, hey, 202 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:27,840 Speaker 8: we're going to cut rates. If they say, hey, you 203 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 8: know what, we're going to go a little slower, good 204 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,440 Speaker 8: rates going up. That takes the heat out of the 205 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 8: bubble that I think is occurring in the specostock. I 206 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,959 Speaker 8: think that's healthy for the stock market in many ways, 207 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 8: might extend the bull market longer than just twenty twenty one. 208 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 3: And just slimon with us and we will continue with them. 209 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 3: He's with Morgan Stanley. 210 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 4: Of course, we're. 211 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 3: Welcome all of you accross the nation, if you're working, 212 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 3: if you're computing, Apple CarPlay, Android Auto, of course, Serious 213 00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:01,199 Speaker 3: x M Channel one twenty one, Good Morning, Bloomberg Television 214 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 3: worldwide and on YouTube, all of our distribution on YouTube. 215 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 3: Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. 216 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:12,199 Speaker 4: It's the only way to observe Lisa Mateo. It's a constructive. 217 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 3: Exercise, to say the least. And a slimon. Last week 218 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:18,559 Speaker 3: we had in the Giant a free cash flow. 219 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 4: You and I read. 220 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:24,319 Speaker 3: Free cash Flow and Shareholder Yield with William Priest of Epic. 221 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 4: It was iconic. 222 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 3: Then, how do you study free cash flow? In this 223 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:30,880 Speaker 3: great bullmarket. What's the Slimon method. 224 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 8: Well, I'm you know, it's interesting. I hear a lot 225 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 8: of people come on shows like this and talk about 226 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 8: how you have to have expansion beyond the MAG seven 227 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 8: and how it's dangerous that these socks are very high 228 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 8: weighting the S and P and I certainly agree with that. 229 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 8: But at the end of the day, these are the companies. 230 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 8: If I look at what's worked, undation from a kind 231 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 8: of factor stapwork, corporate buybacks, companies that are buying back 232 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 8: socking brass, many more general outperformed, and that's the big boys. 233 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 8: So to the extent that your question about cash flow, 234 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 8: I look and say, well, what companies are generating a 235 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 8: lot of cash flow? It's some you know, some of 236 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 8: the best are these really big companies. So I would 237 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:14,720 Speaker 8: I think one of the most consensus trades for next 238 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 8: year is that the market's going to expand beyond the 239 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 8: MAG seven. And I think there's plenty of good ideas 240 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 8: beyond MAG seven. But don't go you have to face 241 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 8: the reality these companies are generally a lot of cash 242 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 8: flow and they're buying backstock, and that is positive. That's 243 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 8: a big difference toime to nineteen ninety nine, two thousand 244 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 8: and now. 245 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 4: Thank you so much. 246 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 3: Andrew Simon with this Morgan Stanley this morning on the 247 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 3: Courage to stay in the market. 248 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 249 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 250 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 251 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:55,720 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 252 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 2: Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty right now. 253 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 3: And this is an immense honor. Data Telsea's scheduled to 254 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 3: join us on a holiday, but we must pause for 255 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 3: the end of an era. Nordstrom's Always in Forever of 256 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 3: Seattle will go private. This on the same day as 257 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:18,840 Speaker 3: a container store files for bankruptcy. Lisa Montela that story earlier, 258 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 3: and the emotion of a family running a store defines 259 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 3: Dana Telsea as no one else on the island of Manhattan. 260 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,960 Speaker 3: She was intimately involved with a small store at fifty 261 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 3: seventh Street at Fifth Avenue, name of Bergdorf Goodman. As 262 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:41,119 Speaker 3: a child, Dana the emotion of a family running retail 263 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 3: and then it's over. Describe your thoughts as you hear 264 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:50,239 Speaker 3: of the privatization of Nordstrom. 265 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 10: A couple things. So first of all, Tom, thank you 266 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 10: very much for having me, and it's an honor to 267 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:57,320 Speaker 10: be here with you, and happy holidays too in your family. 268 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 10: And you're right exactly. The privatization of a family run 269 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 10: business that's been around for over one hundred years is 270 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 10: definitely a spark of change. I think the new environment 271 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 10: today is different than it was in the past, and 272 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 10: you have to give Nordstrom credit for all that it's accomplished, 273 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 10: but the go forward environment requires big changes, and whether 274 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 10: it is a reduction in the number of full line 275 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 10: stores they have, the acceleration of what may be for 276 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 10: the rack, the continuous pursuit of new and curated brands 277 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 10: and their assortment, and for all what we know about Nordstrum, 278 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 10: the service element and the loyal customers they have is 279 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 10: something that needs to be expanded and accelerated go forward. 280 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 10: After all that they've accomplished. 281 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 3: For Nordstrom and for your Bergdorf Goodman and as Joe 282 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 3: Feldman at Telsey Advisory Group covers big box, what are 283 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 3: customers choosing to do this holiday season? 284 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 10: Well, this holiday season, I think overall it is continues 285 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 10: to be that innovation and newness. You look at Birkenstock 286 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 10: would very good sales increases in their own stores and 287 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 10: wholesale stores. That's newness and differentiation with their closed toed shoes. 288 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:12,640 Speaker 10: I'm thinking of other winners, and you take a look 289 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 10: frankly at Lululemon, where the newness and colors is driving demand. 290 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:21,640 Speaker 10: We're still not seeing the luxury world see any real acceleration. 291 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 10: There are certain brands at certainly the super upper end 292 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,959 Speaker 10: like Ermez that's always different than everyone else. But what 293 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 10: people are searching for and where they're going continues to 294 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 10: be value, particularly at the lower and middle income tier, 295 00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 10: whether it be at TJ Max, whether it be at Walmart. 296 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 10: That's where we're seeing certainly some of the strength lately. 297 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 7: So, Dana, what are some of the retailers that you 298 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:47,479 Speaker 7: follow and followed for such a long time. What are 299 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 7: they telling you about this holiday shopping season? 300 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 8: This year? 301 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 10: Compressed holiday season is a factor. You're seeing five fewer 302 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:59,920 Speaker 10: days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Consumers started earlier. There were 303 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:03,640 Speaker 10: promotions that began earlier, but the state of promotions isn't 304 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 10: greater than what was expected. The other thing that happened 305 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 10: with Christmas on a Wednesday. The digital shopping days where 306 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,800 Speaker 10: you can get even same day delivery that many companies 307 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,440 Speaker 10: are putting in place with door dash, and you only 308 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 10: have one more day to be able to take advantage 309 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 10: of that. 310 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 7: Anything kind of jumping out as the go to gift 311 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:26,439 Speaker 7: this year. I know some years it's we've definitely had 312 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:28,120 Speaker 7: those types of stories. Is this one of those years? 313 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 10: I think it's a little bit wider spread. I think 314 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:35,320 Speaker 10: keep in mind we've had Taylor Swift's concert ending, but 315 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:37,960 Speaker 10: Target had the Book of the Errors tour. You have 316 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 10: the closed toed Birken shoes that basically happen to be 317 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 10: very popular. And if you're into denim jeans, barrel leg 318 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 10: jeans are what it's all about. And you're still seeing 319 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 10: newness and cosmetics occur, and I think that's some of 320 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 10: the independent brands that are driving demand. 321 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 3: I noticed that the fam was it all to and 322 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,440 Speaker 3: so for it was a double did you Day? 323 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:01,360 Speaker 4: Dan? 324 00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 3: And I got a nine, nine hundred and fifty dollars 325 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 3: jacket over It's Chanelle and the news here, and I 326 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 3: think of you know, the Devilwar's Prada where Meryl Street 327 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 3: walks in and throws the purses in the bags, and 328 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 3: all the fanciness met you blazy. I know I'm butchering 329 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 3: the name, but the guy from Botega, Venada goes over 330 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 3: to quote unquote save Chanell. What does that signal to 331 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 3: you that something as iconic as Coco Chanel's franchise needs saving. 332 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:34,879 Speaker 10: Well, keep in mind, ever since Carl lager Felt passed away, 333 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,760 Speaker 10: who was the icon of the Chanell brand, and you 334 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 10: had his long standing colleague basically take over for the 335 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 10: past few years, you need to have a marker. And 336 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,879 Speaker 10: I think what we've seen this year is many brands 337 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:52,360 Speaker 10: are getting new designers. Obviously, you've had things happen at Gucci, 338 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 10: which it's needed to happen. We have changes going on 339 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:59,400 Speaker 10: at other of lv's brands with the whole change in leadership. 340 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 10: That's a current. And I've always believed that typically for 341 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 10: many it's fifteen years that a designer has the eye 342 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:09,399 Speaker 10: of the consumer, and that their eye doesn't get tired 343 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 10: of the brand. Carl Lagerfeld did it much longer, and 344 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:14,680 Speaker 10: I don't see anyone else like him out there. 345 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 4: Fascinating Dana. 346 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 3: The holidays season here and I got all these gloom 347 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 3: articles out about retail, and yet we're still. 348 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 4: Aspirational after the pandemic. Have we changed? Is consumption beasts? 349 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 8: No? 350 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:32,879 Speaker 10: I think we're always going to be consumption beasts, And 351 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:37,080 Speaker 10: you know why. There's a point of excitement and socialization 352 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 10: that consumption brings. And look what we're saying in terms 353 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 10: of discretionary spend. Where could twenty twenty five see resumption 354 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,200 Speaker 10: of acceleration of discretionary spend. Think of what we've seen 355 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 10: in twenty twenty four, where old brands becoming new again, 356 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 10: where the cultural relevance of gap taking hold. And is 357 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 10: Victoria's Secret going to be a name for twenty twenty 358 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 10: five given the lines we've seen so far in twenty 359 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 10: twenty four with the arrival of Hillary Souper's CEO. In 360 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 10: September of twenty. 361 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:12,400 Speaker 7: Four, Dana Great article out on the Bloomberg terminal entitled 362 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 7: Kirkland for Christmas shoppers ditch logos for store brands. I 363 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 7: didn't know that was a thing. 364 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 9: What are you seeing out there? 365 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 10: I think overall, when you think about private label and 366 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 10: store brands, there's no one more successful in the essentials 367 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 10: world than Costco's Kirklands and one of the interesting things 368 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:34,639 Speaker 10: about their own brand there everyone knows the name, so yes, 369 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 10: store brands matter. You're even seeing some of the department 370 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:42,640 Speaker 10: stores in apparel looking to activate and enhance their own 371 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 10: private label brands. It's also value and that it typically 372 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,440 Speaker 10: has a lower price than any regular brands. 373 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 3: You got Joe Joy as an outperformer on Costco. 374 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 4: Costco to the moon data. 375 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:58,399 Speaker 10: You know what a competitive mode that scale, that can scale. 376 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 10: Think of what Costco has, more stores, more products, more 377 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 10: customers and really loyal members. 378 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 3: Dana, we finished strong here today. Thank you so much 379 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 3: for your perspective, particularly on JW Nords term they will 380 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 3: go private after a decade of price decline. 381 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:16,639 Speaker 4: To say the least. 382 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:27,640 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 383 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:30,920 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 384 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,879 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 385 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,200 Speaker 2: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 386 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:38,159 Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal. 387 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 4: Here, Jerry, look at the front pages around the world. 388 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,879 Speaker 4: The Lisa Mateo week. We call it Lisa, what do 389 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:44,119 Speaker 4: you have? 390 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:46,920 Speaker 1: I have all the scams that are happening this holiday 391 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 1: season to steal your money. I don't know if you've 392 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 1: gotten some of those weird text messages like click the link, 393 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,480 Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff. Well, they're using AI to 394 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 1: do a lot of this stuff, and that's what's why 395 00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 1: you see it a lot more this season. In the 396 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,439 Speaker 1: text messages, right, the baiting victims to write programs testing 397 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 1: huge volumes of stolen credit card information. They're helping scammers 398 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,919 Speaker 1: generate fake online ads, so you're seeing more online ads, 399 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 1: so the fake ones to click the link and then 400 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:16,240 Speaker 1: they steal your credit card information using AI to impersonate 401 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,960 Speaker 1: account holders, so they're pretending to be you so that 402 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 1: they can get your access to different accounts. So they're 403 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 1: doing that too, and then they're also asking for video 404 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 1: selfies because then they can use that to get access 405 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:29,879 Speaker 1: to different thing because people are just sending them in 406 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 1: because if you get locked out sometimes of your account, 407 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:33,359 Speaker 1: you need to send. 408 00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:33,879 Speaker 9: You know, a video. 409 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:38,119 Speaker 1: And they're changing all this and the banks are putting 410 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 1: money using AI to help fight this, but yet it's happening. 411 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:43,919 Speaker 4: So fas it really picked up. 412 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 7: Really, I just send money to you know, people who 413 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:50,439 Speaker 7: need they're buying oil. That's kind of I'm pretty comfortable 414 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:51,919 Speaker 7: doing that, but. 415 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 3: You know it's gone. We're a long way Lisa from 416 00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:55,880 Speaker 3: Emails from Nigeria. 417 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 9: Right, Oh my gosh, yes, do you know the. 418 00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,639 Speaker 3: Code thing is the kids use the code. I don't 419 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:06,639 Speaker 3: do that ever anymore because they put the sticker that 420 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 3: looks just like the code you think you're going and 421 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:10,639 Speaker 3: it's not. 422 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:14,119 Speaker 4: It's like a scan. So I never do the code 423 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 4: thing anymore ever. 424 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's tough, and especially this time you see a 425 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,639 Speaker 1: lot of the you know, your package is being held 426 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:21,880 Speaker 1: and everyone has packages at the door. 427 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,119 Speaker 4: One of our interns he's like, twenty three are just 428 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:29,119 Speaker 4: nailed that. Yeah, QR cold you old fossil. 429 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 9: Here, I'm going already NEXTQ CODE Now, I got you. Okay. 430 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:40,719 Speaker 9: Apple is considering something. 431 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:42,720 Speaker 1: You know, you have the ring, right, that's what a 432 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 1: lot of people have the doorbell when you come in there, 433 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 1: so they have that, but now Apple wants to challenge 434 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:51,000 Speaker 1: that with their smart doorbell that will actually unlock the 435 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 1: door with your face, so instead of the keys or 436 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 1: punching in the numbers sometimes people have you just put 437 00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 1: your face up to it and then your door would 438 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 1: unlock and you can go in. So that's something that 439 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,080 Speaker 1: Apple could be working on. This from Bloomberg into the 440 00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 1: new year. So it's a new way to get into 441 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 1: your house. But they're they're trying different things, like Apple's 442 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,520 Speaker 1: trying to take catch up. Remember the whole you know 443 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:12,479 Speaker 1: car they tried doing just fell apart. 444 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:13,880 Speaker 4: Do we want this? 445 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:15,160 Speaker 5: I don't. 446 00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 4: Do you have Do you have Alexa? We're going to costco. 447 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,440 Speaker 9: I do not have Alexa? No, I don't. 448 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: But this is I don't know. It seems like it 449 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:28,760 Speaker 1: would make getting into your house easier, but it's kind 450 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:30,200 Speaker 1: of scary too at the same time. 451 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:31,440 Speaker 9: I don't know. 452 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 3: So if the if the nanny's locked outside with two 453 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:38,679 Speaker 3: dogs and she can't get because it's my ugly. 454 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:41,640 Speaker 9: Face unless you add the nanny to you know. 455 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,399 Speaker 7: What, I'll stick with my key. 456 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 1: You'll stick with your key, Yeah, yeah you can. I 457 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 1: can bumble with the packages and do all the right same. 458 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:51,080 Speaker 9: Okay. 459 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,000 Speaker 1: New York City's new secret weapon in the war on 460 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:57,159 Speaker 1: rats it is a dog named Katie. 461 00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 9: Okay. Katie is a four year old twelve and a 462 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:00,360 Speaker 9: half pas much. 463 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:04,280 Speaker 1: She's part Chihuahua, part pug, part rat terrier, and her 464 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 1: owner says that she takes a route. This is in 465 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 1: around Prospect Park where they say they don't have a 466 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,800 Speaker 1: lot of rats, but apparently they do because Katie sniffs 467 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,600 Speaker 1: them out, snatches them up in her draw, cracks their neck. 468 00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 1: Then the owner takes them and dumps them in a 469 00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:17,920 Speaker 1: garbage can. 470 00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 9: So here's the thing. 471 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,199 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty three, Katie bagged about one hundred and 472 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:22,920 Speaker 1: fifteen rats. 473 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:26,159 Speaker 9: Really about a week ago. To this year, she has 474 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 9: a week left closing in on five hundred. 475 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,920 Speaker 1: So this dog has been doing a lot of stuff 476 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 1: I guess around the area Prospect Park, Park Slope, Gwanis. 477 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,320 Speaker 1: Her most productive week is Thursday for some reason, I 478 00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 1: don't know why. 479 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:40,560 Speaker 9: Maybe that's when the rats come out and play. 480 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 1: But the owner says sometimes she does get you know, 481 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,280 Speaker 1: a little scratches and things like that, but she does 482 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,880 Speaker 1: get her vaccinated so that she won't get sick if 483 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:49,879 Speaker 1: she because if she does get fit by the rats, 484 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,880 Speaker 1: but I don't know, she goes to show you how 485 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 1: bad the rat problem is. 486 00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:59,359 Speaker 7: Color coded Google mapp titled Katie's Rats twenty twenty four, 487 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,439 Speaker 7: so you can follow her as she goes around in 488 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:02,959 Speaker 7: her duties. 489 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,600 Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I do, Okay, So this is okay if 490 00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:09,040 Speaker 1: you have kids listening in the background, for any reason, 491 00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:09,879 Speaker 1: just ear muffs. 492 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 9: Okay, I'll give you a couple of minutes. Okay, all right, 493 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 9: here we go. Holiday fixture the elf on the shelf. 494 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:16,520 Speaker 9: This is what a lot of parents do. I remember 495 00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:18,639 Speaker 9: doing it with my kids. It's meant to keep an 496 00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:19,359 Speaker 9: eye on the shelf. 497 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 1: You know, you have this little elf and every night, 498 00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:24,000 Speaker 1: the elf goes back to Santa, tells them who's been 499 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:25,840 Speaker 1: good or bad, gives them the full breakdown, and then 500 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:26,360 Speaker 1: comes back. 501 00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 9: This is all before Christmas, this story. 502 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 1: Okay, so parents have been you know, they have to 503 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:33,760 Speaker 1: figure out a different storyline every day, and it's a 504 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:35,480 Speaker 1: lot of work because they have to move the elf. 505 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:37,439 Speaker 1: And if you forget, then the kid's gonna ask why. 506 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:38,960 Speaker 9: Did the elf move. It's this whole big thing. 507 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:40,920 Speaker 1: So now a lot of parents are starting to say, 508 00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:42,280 Speaker 1: you know what, I'm sick of the elf. 509 00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:43,119 Speaker 9: I'm not doing it. 510 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:45,399 Speaker 1: And now what they have to do is explain to 511 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 1: their kids why the elf isn't coming to their house. 512 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:52,040 Speaker 1: This is like this huldrunout drama because all the other 513 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,359 Speaker 1: kids have the elf. So Mommy, how come my elf 514 00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:58,720 Speaker 1: is not coming to my house? You are lucky because 515 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,680 Speaker 1: there's a lot of work. I just starting when my 516 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,240 Speaker 1: kids were you know, younger. But now it's become a 517 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,240 Speaker 1: social media thing. So now people are posting all, you know, 518 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:09,119 Speaker 1: the different funny things are doing with the elf, you 519 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,200 Speaker 1: know the next day, and it's become. 520 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:16,399 Speaker 9: This huge responsibility for them to do. I just have 521 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:18,280 Speaker 9: the patience from you know. 522 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,119 Speaker 1: But it's the elf on the shelf I actually have 523 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:22,920 Speaker 1: since my kids are older. I have Snoop on the 524 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:26,640 Speaker 1: stoop Snoop Dogg as one, so I use that. 525 00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:28,920 Speaker 8: Snoop on. 526 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,280 Speaker 4: I have a real tree. You don't have a real tree. 527 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 9: No, I have a fake tree. Yes, I have put 528 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:36,880 Speaker 9: it up the. 529 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 4: Real Yeah, thank God for that. 530 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 1: Yes, it's a lot of work. Parents are stressed out 531 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,480 Speaker 1: enough as it is, and they say need this extra 532 00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:46,800 Speaker 1: burden on their hands. 533 00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,320 Speaker 4: When we do this tomorrow, I'll find a negg dog story. 534 00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:53,160 Speaker 4: Thank you, I will, Lisa, thank you so much. 535 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:56,880 Speaker 3: The newspapers here, of course, across the nation for all 536 00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 3: of you as well. 537 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:02,960 Speaker 2: Is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and 538 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 539 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:10,160 Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 540 00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:14,080 Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app tune in, and the Bloomberg Business App. You 541 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 2: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 542 00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:19,120 Speaker 2: always on the Bloomberg terminal