WEBVTT - Trump Wins 2024 Presidential Election 0:00:02.440 --> 0:00:09.119 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:09.160 --> 0:00:13.280 Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:13.360 --> 0:00:16.360 Eastern on Focar playing and broud Auto with the Bloomberg 0:00:16.400 --> 0:00:19.720 Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:19.960 --> 0:00:23.480 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:25.639 Falls when you're live here on our Bloomberg Interactive Broker 0:00:25.720 --> 0:00:28.800 Studio streaming live on YouTube as well YouTube, dot com 0:00:28.800 --> 0:00:33.479 search Bloomberg Podcast. Policy changes. A lot of folks are 0:00:33.560 --> 0:00:36.400 highlighting the financial services industry to benefit from a lot 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:40.720 of policy changes. The absolute author on all of the 0:00:40.720 --> 0:00:43.960 Bloomberg Intelligence work on this is Nathan Dean, Senior policy 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:46.800 ANALYSTO Bloomberg Intelligence. Nathan, I know you guys have gamed 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:50.320 this out. You've kind of looked at financial industry some 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:52.839 of the regulations that are that it's dealing with now 0:00:52.880 --> 0:00:55.000 and that are still kind of on the table. What 0:00:55.080 --> 0:00:57.160 do you think you're with what we're seeing here with 0:00:57.200 --> 0:00:57.760 the elections. 0:00:58.440 --> 0:01:01.080 Yeah, so, you know, with the fal services industry, it 0:01:01.080 --> 0:01:03.320 all came down to this rule called the Basel three endgame. 0:01:03.920 --> 0:01:06.080 You know, as outlined by the FED. You're talking about 0:01:06.080 --> 0:01:08.600 a nine percent increase for the GESIPS, the Bank America 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:11.160 JP Morgan's of you will about three to four percent 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:13.920 in terms of the regional banks. Now, with President Trump 0:01:13.959 --> 0:01:16.399 winning the Office of the Control of the Currency is 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:18.759 likely going to flip on day one of next year. 0:01:19.080 --> 0:01:22.360 So this rule is effectively indefinitely delayed. You know this, 0:01:22.440 --> 0:01:24.880 you would need to fed the OCC and the FDIC 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:27.440 to move forward. Now we think at thirty percent chance 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:29.720 of it being finalized by twenty twenty six. The reason 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:32.000 why we're not down to zero is because there is 0:01:32.080 --> 0:01:35.560 potential out there that a Republican led regulator may try 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:37.520 and move forth with it, but the idea is going 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:39.480 to be completely different and they're going to essentially start 0:01:39.520 --> 0:01:42.040 from scratch. So if you're talking about capital requirements on 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:45.000 a global scale, remember the European banks have already implemented 0:01:45.000 --> 0:01:47.600 their version of this. There could be some questions here 0:01:47.640 --> 0:01:49.720 on if the Americans aren't going to do this, why 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:51.960 should the Europeans on the same side. So certainly a 0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:54.160 lot to play here in terms of the you know, 0:01:54.200 --> 0:01:56.559 deregulatory efforts amongst the investment banks. 0:01:56.720 --> 0:01:59.120 Nathan Dean, you are the consummate Washington insider. When I 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:02.400 need to get my IF's answered about what's happening in Washington, 0:02:02.520 --> 0:02:04.680 I call you so I have a question here. What 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:07.560 name should I be looking at more closely than others? 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:10.840 Bill Lackman, Elon Musk's got Bess and Howard Lucknet. I mean, 0:02:10.880 --> 0:02:12.880 talk to us about what the potential for a Trump 0:02:12.919 --> 0:02:14.400 cabinet may very well look like. 0:02:15.360 --> 0:02:15.600 Yeah. 0:02:15.680 --> 0:02:18.800 So you know, obviously the big question is you going 0:02:18.840 --> 0:02:22.280 to get the Wall Street President Trump? Or are you 0:02:22.360 --> 0:02:24.480 going to get a populist President Trump? And that's the 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:26.760 question that I don't think anybody really has an answer 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:29.080 to because you know, for example, at the SEC, you 0:02:29.080 --> 0:02:31.160 know you have Commissioner Hester Purse, who I think would 0:02:31.200 --> 0:02:34.640 be a very popular SEC chair coming from more of 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:37.320 the conservative wing the populist side of the party. But 0:02:37.360 --> 0:02:39.480 then there's also going to be folks like former J. Clayton. 0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:41.800 You know, obviously his name's been in there for a Treasury, 0:02:42.440 --> 0:02:45.280 but you know, somebody like a disciple, if you will, 0:02:45.520 --> 0:02:48.320 a commissioner or chairman Clayton could be also a name 0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:50.400 at the SEC. So the question that we have, and 0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:52.120 we should find out about this more over the next 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:54.079 few weeks, is are you going to get the populist Trump? 0:02:54.200 --> 0:02:56.520 Are the Wall Street Trump, and I think you're probably 0:02:56.560 --> 0:02:59.320 going to get a combination of the both, where if 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:02.000 President Trump cares about your issue in terms of he 0:03:02.160 --> 0:03:05.400 specifically wants to be involved, you'll get a populist Trump. 0:03:05.960 --> 0:03:07.919 If it's something where he's happy to delegate to other 0:03:07.960 --> 0:03:10.000 folks in Washington, then I think you may get a 0:03:10.000 --> 0:03:10.680 Wall Street Trump. 0:03:10.720 --> 0:03:12.640 Only think it took a long time for Trump to 0:03:12.639 --> 0:03:15.120 pick his cabinet and his players back the first time around. 0:03:15.120 --> 0:03:17.200 Apparently he's much more prepared this time. Talk to us 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:19.560 about timing around some of those selections. When can we appear, 0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:21.359 When can we expect to hear something there? 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:24.040 Yeah, so I think you're gonna hear it, probably before, 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:26.360 probably within the next few weeks. I mean, to your point, 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:28.760 you know they've been talking about this for some time. 0:03:28.760 --> 0:03:31.160 But I would also note that the Republicans have somewhere 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:34.080 between fifty two potentially as much as fifty six seats 0:03:34.080 --> 0:03:36.520 in the Senate, and as a result, the Republican Senate 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:38.520 is going to be able to confirm a lot of 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:41.640 President Trump's appointees on a much quicker basis than if 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:43.560 you were to have a Democrat controlled Senate or even 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:46.080 a fifty or fifty one. Now why do we care 0:03:46.080 --> 0:03:48.920 about this, Well, because the faster that those regulatory leaders 0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:52.440 come in place, the faster they can start these deregulatory efforts. 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:54.720 You know, a regulatory leader, for the most part, can't 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:57.280 just come in and say, right, this regulation, We're going 0:03:57.360 --> 0:03:59.320 to just completely roll it back on day one. It's 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:01.800 gonna take nine months, twelve months, if not even two 0:04:01.840 --> 0:04:04.120 years to move forth on that effort. So the quicker 0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:06.600 those regulatory leaders come in place, the quicker the de 0:04:06.720 --> 0:04:08.080 regulatory effort can take place. 0:04:08.440 --> 0:04:11.800 Red headline crossing the Bloomberg terminal. Harris to deliver remarks 0:04:11.800 --> 0:04:15.240 at Howard University at four pm Eastern time, so we 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:21.640 will have more reporting on that. Nathan is Brice president elect? 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:23.560 I mean, is President elect Trump is see had Lamed 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:26.760 Duck president? Is that a fair way to look at it? Now? 0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:29.320 So generally, and I say this generally, in the second 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:32.520 term of a presidential term, if you will think President 0:04:32.560 --> 0:04:35.559 Obama or President George W. Bush, you usually have about 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:38.880 eighteen months to expend your political capital. First one hundred 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:41.000 days of the presidency is critical. But as soon as 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:43.760 Congress begins to think about their midterm elections, and then 0:04:43.800 --> 0:04:46.160 as the result when they come back, you know, why 0:04:46.200 --> 0:04:48.160 should they stick their necks out for the president who's 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:50.240 going to be gone. So what do presidents tend to do. 0:04:50.279 --> 0:04:52.200 They tend to go internationally, and they tend to travel 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:54.839 because the power of the presidency it's more powerful there. So, 0:04:55.000 --> 0:04:56.640 you know, we do think President Trump is going to 0:04:56.640 --> 0:04:59.279 be spending a lot of time abroad Ukraine, Middle East, 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:01.720 for example. There's a lot of stuff that he can 0:05:01.760 --> 0:05:03.920 do there. But I wouldn't call him a lame duck 0:05:03.960 --> 0:05:06.200 just yet, because again, the power of the presidency is 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:06.920 more powerful there. 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:10.080 Nathan, it'sok till ten thirty two am Eastern Time this 0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:13.440 morning for China's Mystery of Foreign Affairs To congratulate President 0:05:13.520 --> 0:05:16.760 elect Donald Trump. You know that China tariffs are coming. 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:19.840 You're betting man, what kind of tariff regime do you 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:21.560 think we're entering into. Is it going to be that 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:23.839 ten percent broad? Is it going to be sixty percent 0:05:23.880 --> 0:05:25.279 on China? What are you hearing? 0:05:26.000 --> 0:05:28.200 So this is where I think the process of tariff 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:31.360 is key. Now, remember, let's just say January twentieth, President 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:33.520 comes in. You see a red line over the terminal. 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:36.080 You say, President Trump signs an executive order saying tariffs 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:38.880 are coming. In the language of that executive order, however, 0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:40.880 I think you'll see language that says the tariff is 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:42.680 not coming for two hundred and seventy days or three 0:05:42.760 --> 0:05:46.080 hundred and sixty five days. Why, because tariffs are negotiation tools. 0:05:46.200 --> 0:05:48.560 President Trump doesn't know what the reciprocal tariff on China 0:05:48.640 --> 0:05:51.200 from China would be, and President Trump wants to use 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:53.680 this as a negotiation. So I think there's going to 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:56.320 be language in there allowing flexibility, allowing President Trump to 0:05:56.320 --> 0:05:58.960 come back and say, eh, maybe not sixty percent, maybe 0:05:58.960 --> 0:06:00.719 we'll go to ten percent because gave us a win 0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:03.400 or something like that. So what we're saying is watch 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:05.200 out for that headline risk in the first or second 0:06:05.279 --> 0:06:07.719 quarter of next year. But then you're gonna get probably 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:10.560 six months to actually truly understand what that tariff will 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:12.239 look like before it goes into fruition. 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:15.120 All right, Nathan, as always, thank you very much for 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:17.520 your analysis. Nathan Dean see your policy on US at 0:06:17.480 --> 0:06:21.440 Bloomberg Intelligence. You find all of Nathan's research at Big 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:24.800 on the Terminal. He really boils down some of this 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:28.719 very difficult policy minutia into something that like real people 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:30.880 can you know that real people can understand and use. 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:36.320 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:06:36.400 --> 0:06:39.920 weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and Android 0:06:39.960 --> 0:06:42.760 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:45.960 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:50.880 Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:06:50.520 --> 0:06:53.039 Live here in our Bloomberg and Actor Brokers studio, streaming 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:56.159 live on YouTube as well. All Right, we've got a 0:06:56.200 --> 0:06:59.400 Republican in the White House, got a Republican Senate in 0:06:59.600 --> 0:07:02.840 the houses yet to be determined. What does it mean 0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:04.720 for policy? Our next guest has got some thoughts here. 0:07:04.839 --> 0:07:08.719 Ed Mills, managing director in Washington, Policy analysts for Raymond 0:07:08.800 --> 0:07:13.880 James ed, Okay, it's kind of a red wave. The 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:17.560 House is still to be determined. Now, what what policies 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:21.080 should we expect from a second Trump administration? 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:24.840 So I think one of the questions we've been answering 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:28.200 for folks here at Raymond James is what is different 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:32.240 this year from twenty sixteen? So, first and foremost, Trump 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:34.520 did not expect to win a twenty sixteen and didn't 0:07:34.560 --> 0:07:37.040 have a transition Cheam, that's not true. 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:37.559 This time. 0:07:37.800 --> 0:07:41.000 He's going to have a lot more personnel to start off, 0:07:41.360 --> 0:07:46.600 a playbook that they've been developing to implement, and so 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:49.880 I do anticipate a lot of robust policies to start 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:55.040 off twenty twenty five. That's on taxes, on tariffs, on trade, 0:07:55.440 --> 0:07:58.640 on immigration. Now, to get taxes done, you probably need 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:01.400 the House of Representatives. As we're speaking right now, it's 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:05.320 starting to inch towards that complete sweep, and Republicans are 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:08.920 slightly better positioned to have a majority in the House 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:12.000 than Democrats. But there's a big difference between having a 0:08:12.040 --> 0:08:14.760 majority and being able to govern ed mills. 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:16.440 I'm looking at the smp OR up two percent on 0:08:16.480 --> 0:08:19.560 the day, led by the financial sector, the banks four 0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:21.840 point seven percent on the day. We are up. Talk 0:08:21.960 --> 0:08:24.920 us about financial regulation under a Trump administration, I mean, 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:26.920 is bar going to step down? Who's going to replace 0:08:26.960 --> 0:08:28.800 Powell at the FED? I mean, who's going to be 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:29.760 controlling the Fed? 0:08:29.800 --> 0:08:30.000 Here? 0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:32.960 I mean, we know deregulation is good for the banking sector. 0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:33.880 What are your thoughts there? 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:37.840 Yeah, Damian, you mentioned the two people that probably are 0:08:37.920 --> 0:08:41.760 the only ones that stay with a Trump victory. Here, 0:08:42.280 --> 0:08:47.560 every single federal financial regulator will lose his or her job. 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:51.520 This is the largest transition in US history. This has 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:55.000 become some court cases in the last couple of administrations 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:58.520 because of precedent. But we've been in what I've described 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:02.360 as a regulatory supersite. We've talked about higher capital standards 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:05.559 for big banks following the bank crisis last year and 0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:08.400 the implementation of what's known as Basil three capital standards. 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:12.720 The regulators came out with new restrictive merger guidance in September. 0:09:13.200 --> 0:09:16.800 Throw all of that out the window with the Trump victory, 0:09:17.000 --> 0:09:20.400 and so that's what financials are reacting to. Not only 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:22.960 are their capital standards not going to get higher, we 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:28.160 could see significant regulatory relief because there is a deregulatory bent, 0:09:28.679 --> 0:09:31.640 and we're probably likely to see a considerable amount of 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:35.400 consolidation in the bank space, which has been almost non existent, 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:38.640 lower than it was during the financial crisis. So the 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:42.160 financials are being viewed as a clear winner this morning. 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:44.920 Well, Paul and I are thinking about allocating the merger arbitrage. 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:46.319 I mean, talk to us a little bit about anti 0:09:46.320 --> 0:09:48.240 trust regulation here in the US. I mean, can we 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:50.400 expect that to lighten up under Trump administration. 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:53.679 This is where it gets a little bit more interesting. 0:09:54.200 --> 0:09:57.800 First and foremost, at the anti trust regulators. I look 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:01.839 at the FTC and Cheerly con Well. Her term's actually 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:05.640 already expired, but she gets to stay on as cheer 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:09.040 or as a commissioner in a democratic majority until the 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:13.800 president appoints in the Senate confirms her replacement. We'll be 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:15.880 watching to see if she steps down and goes on 0:10:15.920 --> 0:10:18.160 to a different job. But in that case, it's still 0:10:18.160 --> 0:10:20.840 only a two to two tie. So Donald Trump is 0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:23.840 going to have to nominate someone to replace her and 0:10:23.960 --> 0:10:28.800 elevate maybe one of the existing FTC commissioners to Cheer 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:31.959 before we have that change. At the Department of Justice 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:35.240 Anti Trust Division, Jonathan Canter will be gone on January 0:10:35.320 --> 0:10:38.800 twentieth at twelve oh one. How long does it take 0:10:38.840 --> 0:10:41.760 for Trump to make that change. That's something that we'll 0:10:41.800 --> 0:10:44.440 be watching. Who is his attorney general, That's something that 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:48.000 we need to watch. That said, a lot of anti 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:51.600 trust activities started when Donald Trump was president. The lawsuit 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:54.840 against Google that we've been talking about in recent weeks, 0:10:55.120 --> 0:10:57.800 that's finally gotten to the point where we might see 0:10:58.080 --> 0:11:02.719 some action by the court to implement remedies that was 0:11:02.760 --> 0:11:06.520 stuttered under Donald Trump. So populism is driving anti trust. 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:10.240 Populism drove Donald Trump. We will see some changes, but 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:12.839 it's not as clear cut of a change as we 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:15.040 discussed with financials. 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:17.280 And markets have been looking to, for example, comments by 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:21.040 Scott Besson x Soros of increasing domestic oil supplied by 0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:23.320 three million oil equivalent barrels per day. People are looking 0:11:23.400 --> 0:11:25.720 at Elon Musk. I mean, is Who's going to be 0:11:25.720 --> 0:11:28.640 in Trump's cabinet here? I mean, is Scott Bessont really 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:31.360 a candidate for US Treasury Secretary? Is Elon Musk going 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:34.480 to be running the Department of Transportation? I mean, talk 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:35.839 to us a little bit about what we can expect 0:11:35.840 --> 0:11:37.199 in the weeks ahead on Trumps cabinet. 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:40.920 Yeah. So when I look at one of the bigger 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:44.240 surprises of the election results was the size of the 0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:48.319 victory for Republicans in the Senate, and the more that 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:51.680 Republicans pick up those seats, it could be a fifty 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:55.439 five seat majority when all is said and done from Republicans. 0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:58.440 The higher that is, the more Trump is going to 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:01.559 be able to get anyone that he wants. And we 0:12:01.600 --> 0:12:05.280 wouldn't have to worry about one or two senators denying 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:09.720 that nomination. Scott Bessen absolutely could be Treasury Secretary. There's 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:12.960 others leading that role. I'm a little bit more skeptical 0:12:13.000 --> 0:12:18.280 as it comes to Elon Musk. To be a confirmed individual, 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:21.360 you have to divest a lot from what you own. 0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:24.079 I just don't see that happening. The question I get 0:12:24.080 --> 0:12:26.120 a lot from Elon too, is is he going to 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:30.200 drive all of these cuts? Call me skeptical of Congress 0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:34.120 actually passing significant budget cuts. We get asked that after 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:38.079 every election, and our federal budget just continues to go up. 0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:40.640 Ed, thank you so much for joining us. I appreciate 0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:43.320 getting your perspectives. Ed Mills. He's a managing director and 0:12:43.520 --> 0:12:47.240 Washington policy analyst over there at Raymond James joining us 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:48.680 from New York via a zoom. 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:54.000 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:56.840 weekdays at ten am Eastern on fo card Playing and 0:12:56.920 --> 0:12:59.760 broun Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:04.199 ever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:08.360 Damian Sasauer sitting in for Alex deel On paulse When 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:10.880 You're live, here in a Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio streaming 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:14.600 live on YouTube as well. Donald Trump was elected the 0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:17.360 forty seventh President of the United States, pulling off a 0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:20.120 political comeback in one of the most polarized contests for 0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:23.719 the White House in US history. While attending his supporters, 0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:27.959 he said, this will truly be the Golden age of America. 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:31.200 I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe, 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:35.600 and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve. 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:39.719 This will truly be the golden age of America. This 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:43.800 is a magnificent victory for the American people that will 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:47.880 allow us to make America great again. 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:49.080 All Right? 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:53.640 That was President elect Donald Trump's addressing his supporters last evening. 0:13:53.760 --> 0:13:56.800 The question I think for the Democratic Party is where 0:13:56.840 --> 0:13:57.280 does it. 0:13:57.240 --> 0:13:58.040 Go from here? 0:13:58.120 --> 0:14:01.040 Let's check in with Wendy Schuler, Professor Brown University and 0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:04.680 interim director of the Watson Institute, joining us from Providence, 0:14:04.720 --> 0:14:08.160 Rhode Island via zoom. Wendy, we've had, you know, a 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:11.960 few hours here to digest the news. If you're the 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:15.360 Democratic Party, how deep do you really have to look 0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:18.600 inside the party to get a sense of what needs 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:19.080 to be done? 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:22.680 Well, you have to ask yourself why, you know popular 0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:28.120 incumbent senators have been reelected before shared Brown, Tammy, Baldwin, Casey, 0:14:28.160 --> 0:14:32.600 and Pennsylvania could not withstand the red wave, and so 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:35.880 you can attribute it to Trump charisma. The Trump followers. 0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:38.240 We can do that if we want to as observers. 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:42.960 But you know, this ran deep, This reaction across voters, 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:47.120 across different kinds of voters, from different backgrounds, different ages. 0:14:47.400 --> 0:14:49.960 This ran deep, and it was a signal that said, 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:53.080 we don't like the policies that you're enacting. So what 0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:55.080 can they do. I think it's curious to go back 0:14:55.240 --> 0:14:57.360 to or I'm sorry, not curious informative to go back 0:14:57.360 --> 0:15:01.360 to Obama. Obama had a much strict border policy than 0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:04.000 Joe Biden, and I think he did that because he 0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:06.800 sensed there wasn't enough support in America for something more 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:09.720 liberal and more open. So you can say to yourselves, 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:13.000 the Democrats close the border for too late. The Democrats 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:15.240 didn't push hard enough to get those interest rates down. 0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:18.360 The Democrats didn't pay attention to the price of eggs, 0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:21.480 and that's unusual for the Democrats, who usually care a 0:15:21.480 --> 0:15:23.920 lot about the price of eggs. So I think this 0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:27.520 is not necessarily a reboot completely, but they have got 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:30.280 to meet the voter where the voter is, and last 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:32.800 night the voter was not with the Democratic Party. 0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:34.800 When do you mention the border? And let's look ahead here. 0:15:34.800 --> 0:15:36.520 Trump is about to embark on what many believed to 0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:41.080 be the largest deportation program in US history. How does 0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:43.080 he expect to round them all up? And where does 0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:44.120 he intend to send them? 0:15:45.240 --> 0:15:48.400 Well, you know, Trump always surprises us in the sense 0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:50.120 that he'll sort of go off the ranch and then 0:15:50.120 --> 0:15:53.000 I'll kind of moderate. You know. The idea is how 0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:55.120 long does Trump want to be president? You know, he's 0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:59.320 constitutionally prohibited from electing, being elected, and serving, not from running, 0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:01.840 and so you know, does he want to last a 0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:04.520 long time? Maybe get rid of the twenty second Amendment. 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:07.000 I don't know what he plans, but I think he 0:16:07.040 --> 0:16:10.400 will scale this idea up back, especially since the border 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:14.120 has been shut down and you know, undocumented migration has 0:16:14.120 --> 0:16:16.960 slowed so much. Does he really have to do this? 0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:20.000 Does he have to disrupt the country this way? You know, 0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:21.880 he could do some of it, but I don't think 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:24.080 the pressure's on him to do all of it because 0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:26.240 Biden has already taken this step, and he'll keep that 0:16:26.280 --> 0:16:27.120 policy in place. 0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:29.080 When do you mention the twenty second Amendment? You're not 0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:30.680 the first one today to talk about it, but you 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:33.040 know what I'm most interested in, And John Tucker mentions 0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:35.000 it's the FED right. And Trump has made no secret 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:37.760 about his intention to have a greater say and monetary 0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:39.920 policy here in the US. My question for you is 0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:42.640 what legal mechanisms can Trump take advantage of in order 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:45.080 for the to give the Oval Office more control more 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:46.280 saying monetary policy. 0:16:47.280 --> 0:16:49.600 Well, I mean the Federal Reserve Act. I mean literally 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:51.640 the Act creating Federal Reserve and all the bills that 0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:54.160 have come you know after that and reauthorizing it. You know, 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:57.480 that's something that's been sort of a partnership with private 0:16:57.800 --> 0:17:02.160 monetary institutions BANG and the federal government. And the thing 0:17:02.200 --> 0:17:04.920 about Donald Trump is gonna need cash, right, You can't, 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:07.840 you know, you can't crash the government and crash the 0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:11.199 economy by the federal government running out of cash. So 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:14.679 there is a symbiotic relationship between really big banks and 0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:17.480 the Federal Reserve itself and the success of a president. 0:17:17.840 --> 0:17:20.720 So there's going to have to be negotiations there. But 0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:22.679 I don't think the heads of big banks. You're just 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:24.480 going to hand over the keys of the kingdom to 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:26.080 the president of the United States and amount of who 0:17:26.080 --> 0:17:28.439 they are, and so that will be a negotiation, and 0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:30.560 Trump fancies himself as a very good negotiator. 0:17:31.240 --> 0:17:33.680 Wendy, does Kamala Harris have a future as a leader 0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:36.320 of the Democratic Party. I'm thinking maybe in four years time. 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:40.480 I think, all things considered, she ran a good campaign 0:17:40.600 --> 0:17:43.160 what she was given, the time frame that she had 0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:45.679 to work within, and her balancing act of trying to 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:48.600 separate from the Biden record and also present some sort 0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:51.720 of plan for the future and bringing in and solidifying 0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:55.240 particularly younger women, even older women. I think there's still 0:17:55.240 --> 0:17:58.359 a block and a constituency that she can tap if 0:17:58.400 --> 0:18:00.919 she wanted to run again. I just don't see this 0:18:01.000 --> 0:18:03.640 as a Kamala Harris failed campaign. I see it as 0:18:03.800 --> 0:18:07.199 Trump being a former president and energizing their base and 0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:09.800 not making the same campaign mistakes they did in twenty 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:13.199 twenty and the Biden record. You know those numbers from 0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:16.960 exit polls yesterday on the wrong track, Those were extraordinarily 0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:19.560 high numbers. And I don't know if anybody could have 0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:21.480 won in the face of those numbers. 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:23.200 Wendy, I wonder if you could shift your attention here 0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:26.199 to what's going on in Ukraine. Obviously, Zelenski was the 0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:29.640 firebrand who rejected Trump's request for information on Hunter Biden's 0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:32.680 dealings back during his first tenure. And look the battlefield's changing. 0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:35.000 Just yesterday, right, Ukrainian forces had their first run in 0:18:35.000 --> 0:18:37.399 with North Korean troops in the Kurk region. What comes 0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:41.679 next for the Ukraine, for Zelenski, for Central Europe, and 0:18:41.720 --> 0:18:43.399 for Russia under a Trump administration. 0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:46.959 Well, I think Trump is a fan of Putin, and 0:18:47.000 --> 0:18:49.400 I think Trump has said before that he thinks there's 0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:52.439 a deal that can be reached. So my guess is 0:18:52.440 --> 0:18:54.280 Trump says, listen, we're not going to send you the 0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:56.960 same kind of weaponry, We're not going to support you 0:18:56.960 --> 0:18:59.600 the same way. Go to the table, cut a deal, 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.480 up crimea I mean literally, these are the things that 0:19:02.520 --> 0:19:04.840 he'll say. And maybe we'll make sure that more of 0:19:04.840 --> 0:19:06.720 your people don't get chilled. I mean, I think that's 0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:08.719 what we'll do. And in the Middle East, you know, 0:19:08.760 --> 0:19:10.560 I think people who think that he'll be a diehard 0:19:10.600 --> 0:19:13.280 suborner of Israel, maybe, but he may go to the 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:14.920 saudiast and say, what kind of deal do you want 0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:17.080