1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:11,000 Speaker 2: The trade war between the US and China is on pause. 3 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 2: Officials from both countries have lowered tariffs temporarily, and they've 4 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: agreed to keep talking. Both countries hope they'll be able 5 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 2: to draft a new trade deal by early August. Wall 6 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 2: Street welcomed that news, but it is an ambitious timetable, 7 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 2: and I wanted to get a better sense of how 8 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 2: realistic it is that in ninety days the US and 9 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:33,240 Speaker 2: China could resolve their differences and the trade war between 10 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:36,840 Speaker 2: the world's two largest economies could end. So I called 11 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 2: up Nicholas Burns, who was the US ambassador to China 12 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:42,879 Speaker 2: under President Biden. It's one of the toughest jobs in government. 13 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 3: You've got to both defend and push and resist on 14 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:50,199 Speaker 3: one hand, and then you've got to stretch out your 15 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 3: hand to work with them and shake their hand on 16 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 3: the other. But that makes for a very complicated relationship. 17 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 2: Burns's job in Beijing was the capstone of a decade's 18 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 2: long career diplomat. He's held senior jobs under Republican and 19 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 2: Democratic presidents. Now, Burns is a professor of diplomacy and 20 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 2: international relations at the Harvard Kennedy School, which is where 21 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 2: I sat down with him this week to talk about 22 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 2: what he says is the most important relationship that the 23 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 2: United States has. I'm David Gura, and this is the 24 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 2: big take from Bloomberg News Today. On the show, Nicholas Burns, 25 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 2: the former US Ambassador to China, on the trade war, 26 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 2: the challenges facing his successor, who was just confirmed by 27 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 2: the US Senate, and what he's telling his students at Harvard. 28 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 2: We're worried about the future of diplomacy. I want to 29 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 2: start with the meetings that took place over the weekend 30 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 2: in Geneva, and I'm curious how you look at the 31 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 2: way they unfolded and the outcome of them. 32 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:55,279 Speaker 1: Do you see it as a positive step? 33 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 3: Well, first of all, I started from a first principle, 34 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 3: and that is that China's been the largest and most 35 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 3: important disruptor in the global trade system for about three decades. 36 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 1: Right now. 37 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:09,959 Speaker 3: There's a reason why the United States and many other 38 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 3: countries around the world have placed terraces on China. China's 39 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 3: manufactured exports, in particular, is because China has been dumping 40 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 3: them around the world below the cost of production and 41 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 3: it's been a killer for jobs both in the United 42 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,919 Speaker 3: States historically in the last several decades, but also around 43 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 3: the world. So I have a degree of sympathy for 44 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 3: the situation that President Trump and his team inherited, which 45 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,800 Speaker 3: was a situation that we left when I left in 46 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 3: mid January as ambassador to China. The Chinese are trying 47 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 3: to act now is that they're the innocent party, that 48 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 3: they're the victim of this trade war by President Trump, 49 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 3: and that they're the responsible party, when in fact the 50 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 3: reality is quite different. 51 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 1: Having said that, these are going. 52 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 3: To be very very difficult negotiations over the next ninety days, 53 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 3: I think in the end, self interest and logic will 54 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 3: prevent both sides need an agreement. China's our third largest 55 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 3: trade partner. About a million American jobs depend on trade 56 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:11,959 Speaker 3: with China. Manufacturing jobs in China depend on trade with 57 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:15,679 Speaker 3: the United States. So neither country can afford to sunder 58 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 3: the economic ties and the millions of interactions that our 59 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 3: private sector has had with the Chinese economy over the 60 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 3: last forty years. And I think in the end there 61 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 3: will be a trade agreement, but getting there, I think 62 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 3: is going to be extraordinarily difficult. 63 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 2: During your tenure, you were trying to, if I may, 64 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 2: rehabilitate a relationship that had worsened during the first Trump administration, 65 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 2: develop conduits for communication, re establish economic and security ties. 66 00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 2: When you left that post, could you've envision this turning 67 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 2: out the way that it has in terms of how 68 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 2: the rhetoric has been ratcheted up, the tariffs have been 69 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 2: put in place. Is it the worst case that you 70 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 2: envisioned or worse yet? 71 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 3: Still, I certainly did not anticipate one hundred and forty 72 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 3: five percent American terrorists on China or one hundred and 73 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 3: twenty five percent on Chinese tariffs on American goods, and 74 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 3: the trade war that has resulted effectively led to a 75 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 3: trade embargo as of the past week, when no ships 76 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 3: were sailing with goods back and forth, when manufacturers couldn't 77 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 3: export to each other's countries, and you see the significant 78 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 3: shortage of goods that traditionally are important to both economies. 79 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 3: So I didn't expect that to happen at all. We're 80 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 3: the two largest global economies, so we have a profound 81 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 3: impact on the health of global economy. But we also 82 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 3: need the global economy to be functioning in a rational 83 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 3: and stable way, and I think you know, we're not 84 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:37,599 Speaker 3: anywhere close to being out of the woods. If the 85 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 3: levels now are set at thirty percent tariffs on the 86 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:44,839 Speaker 3: American side imposed on China and ten percent by China 87 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 3: imposed on the United States, those are historically high levels, 88 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 3: and a lot of trade will not be able to 89 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 3: take place. It just simply won't be economical. 90 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 2: A minute ago, you spoke about how China is portraying 91 00:04:57,279 --> 00:04:59,040 Speaker 2: not just the talks, but the way that this trade 92 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:02,039 Speaker 2: war is unfolded. How effective you think that is. Do 93 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:03,840 Speaker 2: they walk away from this feeling like they have the 94 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 2: upper hand. Do you think the world views them as 95 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 2: having the upper hand in these negotiations. 96 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:10,839 Speaker 3: Well, the Chinese press, the nationalist press, and to an extent, 97 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 3: the government of China have been saying that they held out, 98 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 3: that they stood strong, and that they faced up to 99 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 3: the American tariff threats and they did not blink. And 100 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 3: they've been trumpeting that line in the global South. President 101 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:29,679 Speaker 3: she just hosted most of the major leaders from South 102 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 3: America at a major summit he's been making. He made 103 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 3: a trip in Southeast Asia to the Asian country. So 104 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 3: they clearly are signaling to the United States. You're not 105 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 3: going to bully us. We have other options. You've seen 106 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 3: a big increase in Chinese manufactured exports to their neighbors. 107 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 3: So yes, the government of China is trying to portray 108 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 3: itself as the steady, solid country that stood up to 109 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 3: the United States. I think that China needs a deal too. 110 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 3: There's a reason why the Chinese met with Secretary of Vessant. 111 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 3: The economy is slowing down. They're facing lower GDP growth 112 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:07,039 Speaker 3: for the next five to ten years. They have a 113 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:11,720 Speaker 3: property crisis that continues to linger. They have a consumption problem. 114 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 3: The Chinese people are not consuming in a rational way, 115 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 3: sitting on their money because of the uncertainty of the 116 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 3: investment environment in China itself. They have strength in the 117 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 3: Chinese economy, enormous strengths. 118 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 1: But they also have these weaknesses. 119 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 3: China could not afford a sustained trade war with the 120 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:32,279 Speaker 3: United States. That's why they were at the table, and 121 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:34,600 Speaker 3: that's why they've agreed to a deal in ninety days. 122 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 2: What did you learn being there about that country's capacity 123 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:40,480 Speaker 2: to whether something like this. So you're saying they couldn't 124 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 2: sustain it long term, but give us some insight into 125 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 2: how they had been preparing for a moment like this 126 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 2: one where there would be this kind of geopolitical test. 127 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 3: I was in China, of course, during the presidential election, 128 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,160 Speaker 3: our presidential election of November twenty twenty four, and as 129 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 3: soon as President Trump was declared the winner in that 130 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 3: election and prepared to office, the Chinese began to prepare 131 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 3: for a trade war. They saw it coming. They had 132 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 3: listened to Canadate Trump. They've did a lot of remobilization 133 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 3: of their supply chain to try to stock up on 134 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 3: minerals and on technologies that were important to them, and 135 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 3: they expected this. They also have an authoritarian system of government, 136 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 3: and so it's a one man rule, and President Hijinping 137 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 3: whatever he says goes. He prepared the Chinese people for 138 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 3: a long struggle with the United States. And you know, 139 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 3: China is like the United States. People are patriotic about 140 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 3: their country. I would say there's a highly nationalist element 141 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 3: in Chinese social media, and there are hundreds of millions 142 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 3: of Chinese involved in Chinese social media. So this was 143 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 3: a moment where the leadership said, we have to stand 144 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 3: strong and defend our country. 145 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 1: And they think they've done that. 146 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 2: After the break Nick Burns weighs in on the job, 147 00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 2: facing his successor and the effects of the Trump administrations 148 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 2: cuts to the federal government. The US is going to 149 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 2: have a new ambassador in Beijing soon, David Perdue has 150 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 2: been confirmed. 151 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 1: I wonder if. 152 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 2: You've spoken with him, exchanged messages with him, and what 153 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 2: counsel you would give him about the role itself and 154 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 2: the ways in which you've found you could be the 155 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 2: most successful. 156 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:25,120 Speaker 1: Well. 157 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 3: I have spoken with him, and I wish him the 158 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 3: best of success, because we have so much writing on 159 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 3: this policy with China that we've got to be successful. 160 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 3: I think he's very well placed to be ambassador. He 161 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 3: worked in business in Hong Kong and Singapore. He's been 162 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:42,840 Speaker 3: to China. As a member of the Senate, he was 163 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:45,959 Speaker 3: on Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committees, which are the 164 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 3: two relevant committees, two of them for China, and has 165 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:51,559 Speaker 3: a clear sense of what he wants to do. 166 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 1: It's a tough job. 167 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 3: I found out, it's not for the feint of heart. 168 00:08:56,200 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 3: We have with China the most competitive relationship of any 169 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 3: country in the world. China is our leading competitor for 170 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:07,679 Speaker 3: military influence and military power in the Indo Pacific, our 171 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:12,680 Speaker 3: leading competitor on the major technologies AI, biotech, quantum computing 172 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:15,559 Speaker 3: that will form the basis of the future of the 173 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:19,080 Speaker 3: global economy. Our third largest trade partner with which we 174 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 3: have a very problematic trade and teriff relationship. And obviously, 175 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 3: and maybe this is the most important part of it, 176 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 3: we believe in human freedom and human rights, and the 177 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 3: Chinese government does not practice that. There are major violators 178 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 3: of the human rights of their own people. But at 179 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 3: the same time, and this makes it so complicated, David, 180 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 3: is that China's our largest and strongest competitor, but there 181 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 3: are certain issues where China is one of our most 182 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 3: important partners. We're the two stewards of the global economy. 183 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 3: We're seeing that play out right now in the teriff issue. 184 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 3: On climate change. We're the two leading emitters of carbon 185 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 3: and so President Biden felt very important to work with China. 186 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 3: If we want to do anything about fen, we've got 187 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 3: to work with China to make that happen. So I 188 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 3: always thought it was it wasn't a fifty to fifty balance. 189 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 3: I actually thought I spent about eighty percent of my 190 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 3: time on the competitive edge with China, about twenty percent 191 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 3: on cooperative matters. 192 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 1: And that I thought was the right ratio. 193 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 3: But that makes for a very complicated relationship where you've 194 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 3: got to both defend and push and resist on one hand, 195 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:27,520 Speaker 3: and then you've got to stretch out your hand to 196 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:30,200 Speaker 3: work with them and shake their hand on the other. 197 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 3: That's the reality of being the American ambassador to China. 198 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:36,720 Speaker 2: Before I kind of pull back and ask you some 199 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 2: broader questions, I wonder how you felt about the relationship 200 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 2: between the US and China when you left. 201 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 3: Well, I arrived in China, was sworn in in twenty 202 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 3: twenty one, and arrived a couple months later hawkish about 203 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 3: the relationship on national security grounds, because China is this 204 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 3: very serious competitor impinging on a lot of American interests 205 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 3: in the end opisis And I think I left China 206 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 3: more hawkish. 207 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 1: Yeah. 208 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 3: I saw the reality of the relationship and the cynical 209 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 3: nature of the government of China, and of the duplicity 210 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 3: on some issues of the government of China, the fact 211 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 3: that we would make an agreement and then it wasn't honored. 212 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:20,199 Speaker 3: So I think this is a long term structural rivalry. 213 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:22,560 Speaker 3: We're competing for global power. 214 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 1: I don't think that will change. 215 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 3: No, matter who's president, and so we've got to steal 216 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:31,720 Speaker 3: ourselves for the next decade or two to a historic 217 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:36,319 Speaker 3: competition with China, and China right now is stronger than 218 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 3: any adversary the United States has ever faced in the 219 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,440 Speaker 3: history of the United States, going back to the Revolutionary War, 220 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 3: including the First and Second World Wars, including. 221 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 1: The Cold War. 222 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:50,079 Speaker 3: The Soviet Union and its heyday was not as strong 223 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 3: as China is today. And so we've got to face 224 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 3: that competition. But here's the catch. We've got to do 225 00:11:57,679 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 3: it in such a way that we don't end up 226 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 3: in a war, because a war would be catastrophic. But 227 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 3: to be engaged with the Chinese leadership, to talk to them, 228 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:10,199 Speaker 3: as Secretary Vescent did this past week on the terariff issue, 229 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 3: but on a thousand other fronts, be engaging them and 230 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,960 Speaker 3: talking to them so you can compete. We can cooperate 231 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 3: where we can, but we avoid a conflict, which in 232 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 3: the future would be an absolute catastrophe. That makes for 233 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 3: a very difficult and complex job. 234 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 2: There seems to be a message from this administration Washington 235 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 2: that there can be bombasted and heated rhetoric, radically increased tariffs, 236 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 2: but then you can flip the switchback and things can 237 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 2: go back to normal. And drawing on your experience as 238 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:42,480 Speaker 2: a diplomat for many decades, do you think that that's 239 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 2: folly or that that's accurate. 240 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 3: I think we're at a moment of great transformation in 241 00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:51,960 Speaker 3: the global power picture, with alliance is shifting very rapidly. 242 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 3: You see that China and Russia, in Iran and North 243 00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 3: Korea and Venezuela and Nicaragua are kind of all working together, 244 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 3: the authoritarian dictatorships, and they're working together to try to 245 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,680 Speaker 3: cut down the power of the United States, reduce it 246 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 3: in the world, and of our democratic allies. And I 247 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:14,840 Speaker 3: always felt, working for President Biden, that one of our 248 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 3: strongest suits is that we have reinforced our alliances despite 249 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:21,320 Speaker 3: the fact that we are still the strongest power in 250 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 3: the world. You do need friends and allies in the world, 251 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:26,440 Speaker 3: and I do think that's the greatest mistake that President 252 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:30,359 Speaker 3: Trump has made in his first four months in office. 253 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 3: If Donald Trump had faced China down, but had not 254 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:40,959 Speaker 3: placed high tariffs on Japan, South Korea, the European Union, Canada, 255 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 3: and Mexico, all those countries would have been on our 256 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 3: side of the table. Have the same trade and tariff 257 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 3: problems with China that we do, but they weren't interested 258 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 3: in doing that once they were placed under the same 259 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 3: tariff regime that China was placed under. And so I 260 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:01,719 Speaker 3: fear that the administration really has a blind spot. They 261 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:03,959 Speaker 3: think the United States can go it alone in the world. 262 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 1: We can't. 263 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 3: And so that's an own goal by the Trump administration. 264 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 3: It's one that they've got to reverse if they hope 265 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 3: to be effective. 266 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 1: Can you recognize the State Department today? 267 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,680 Speaker 2: You can spend forty five years in government service, given 268 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 2: the cuts that have taken place, the priorities of it, 269 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 2: How different is it from the place that you first 270 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 2: went to forty five years ago. 271 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 1: David, I answer it this way. 272 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 3: I spent a lifetime in government at the State Department 273 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 3: in White House, serving in Washington and overseas. Every government 274 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 3: agency can be subject and should be subject to reform. 275 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 3: But taking a sledgehammer to USAID and firing eight thousand 276 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 3: people in one week, without a thought, without a plan, 277 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:46,880 Speaker 3: without actually knowing what you're tearing down, that was a 278 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 3: huge mistake. Treating nonpartisan civil servants, military officers, foreign service 279 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 3: officers as if they are disloyal because they work for 280 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 3: President Biden. Well, they also work for President Bush. They've 281 00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 3: worked people like me work for both parties. We take 282 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 3: an oath to the Constitution to be nonpartisan, but the 283 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 3: Trump administration has not appointed a single foreign service professional 284 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 3: ambassador since it took office. They've appointed lots of political appointees, 285 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 3: but nobody from the ranks of our serving career diplomats. 286 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 3: Seventeen of our deputy chiefs of mission are number two 287 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 3: officials in embassies who were assigned to these jobs and 288 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 3: getting ready to go have been told they're not going. 289 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 3: And many of them, if not all, of that group, 290 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 3: are women and people of color. And so there is 291 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 3: a crisis in our civil service right now. And if 292 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 3: these cuts continue the way they are, and if the 293 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 3: denigration of our civil servants continue, you're losing a great 294 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 3: group of people who just want to serve the country 295 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 3: and want to do it in a non partisan way, 296 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 3: and they will be nonpartisan, that is the Foreign Service 297 00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 3: and US government way. And I think the Trump administration 298 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 3: and has been extraordinarily destructive of this tradition we've had 299 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 3: in this country now for about one hundred and thirty 300 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 3: years of a professional civil service, not a political spoils 301 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 3: system what we had in the nineteenth century, but professional 302 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 3: civil service that would serve the country and serve any 303 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 3: president at the American people elected. That's what's at stake, 304 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 3: And I think when the pendulum does swing back at 305 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:26,239 Speaker 3: some point, we're going to have to recreate USAID, recreate 306 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 3: the Voice of America, recreate Radio Free Asia. These are 307 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 3: journalists who we employ to tell the story of the 308 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 3: United States, in the case of China, to several hundred 309 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:42,680 Speaker 3: million Chinese listeners of VOA and Radio Free Asia. So 310 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 3: enormous damage has been done by this very cynical effort. 311 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 3: Doge to tear down all these institutions and not replace 312 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 3: them with anything of value. 313 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,200 Speaker 2: But you're confident that that force of gravity will swing 314 00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 2: the pendulum back that we will be able to do that. 315 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 1: I don't recreate them. 316 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 3: I don't think anybody can predict when reason will prevail 317 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 3: again and logic will prevail and sanity. But it has 318 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 3: to because I think future administrations, future presidents will look 319 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:14,120 Speaker 3: around at their government and say, where are my AID workers? 320 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:18,119 Speaker 3: How do we run vaccine programs, global health programs, literacy 321 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 3: programs that we ought to be doing around the world 322 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,400 Speaker 3: Because if Americans are generous people. 323 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 1: Where are my diplomats? 324 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,879 Speaker 3: Why do I not have any diplomats with thirty or 325 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 3: forty years of experience? Well, they were all fired, summarily 326 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 3: kicked out in the first couple of weeks and months 327 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:38,520 Speaker 3: of the Trump administration. It's a true national crisis. 328 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 2: I'd like to close by asking you what you're telling 329 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 2: students here who are here at the Kennedy School here 330 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:48,719 Speaker 2: at Harvard to learn from your experience, to learn an 331 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 2: art of diplomacy that has been practiced and perfected for 332 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 2: many decades. 333 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,200 Speaker 1: What do you tell them? Hang on, hang on to 334 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 1: your ideals. 335 00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 3: It's a good thing to want to spend your life 336 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 3: survey the United States of America, your country. 337 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 1: It's a good thing. 338 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 3: You want to be in the public square what Teddy 339 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 3: Roosevelt called the arena of public service. Study hard, and 340 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,800 Speaker 3: don't leave that dream behind of public service. Because what 341 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,920 Speaker 3: a tragedy would be for our country if young people 342 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:18,639 Speaker 3: in this country felt, well, I can't serve in the 343 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 3: federal government because I'm not welcome as a career official 344 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:26,880 Speaker 3: in the federal government. We need non partisan americans out 345 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:31,200 Speaker 3: there representing us without any regard to party allegiance. That's 346 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,680 Speaker 3: an enormous asset, and if we let it wither away, 347 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 3: and this administration is doing that, it's going to do 348 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 3: enormous damage to our country. 349 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 2: This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. 350 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 1: I'm David Goura. 351 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 2: This episode is produced by our senior producer Naomi Shaven, 352 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:49,920 Speaker 2: with help from Amber A. 353 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 1: Lee. 354 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 2: It was edited by Patty Hirsh, Tracy Samuelson, Molly Smith, 355 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 2: John Low, and Ramsey Alraccabe. It was fact checked by 356 00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 2: Rachel Lewis Chrisky and mixed and sound designed by Segura. 357 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,640 Speaker 2: Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso, Our deputy executive producer 358 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:08,120 Speaker 2: is Julia Weaver. Our executive producer is Nicole Beamster. Board 359 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:11,439 Speaker 2: Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts. If you liked 360 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 2: this episode, make sure to subscribe and review The Big 361 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,640 Speaker 2: Take wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps people find 362 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 2: the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back on Monday.