WEBVTT - Jobs Report Is Weak, Gross Says 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:12.880 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:16.520 David Gura. Daily we bring you insight from the best 0:00:16.560 --> 0:00:22.279 of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance 0:00:22.320 --> 0:00:27.000 on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:34.760 on the Bloomberg Good Morning everyone, Bloomberg Surveillance Jobs Day. 0:00:34.760 --> 0:00:37.200 In twenty nine minutes, we will bring you the data. 0:00:37.280 --> 0:00:39.479 We'll go beneath the headline data. We are fond of 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:41.800 doing that, and what we're really fond of is on 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:43.960 a three day weekend, four day weekend, whatever it is, 0:00:44.040 --> 0:00:48.200 David Gurral, five day weekend, I'm labor day weekend. We're 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:52.440 pleased to announce that William Gross and Jim Glassman are here. 0:00:52.560 --> 0:00:56.960 They're here, are people talk to their people, and it's 0:00:57.200 --> 0:00:59.920 very We're really honored if Alan Krueger with us earlier, 0:01:00.280 --> 0:01:03.280 James Sweeney really doing well from Credit Sweee with some 0:01:03.440 --> 0:01:06.839 terrific perspective, and then to have Professor Krueger from Venice, 0:01:06.840 --> 0:01:09.520 Italy and to have uh Bill Gross join us in 0:01:09.560 --> 0:01:12.280 a bit from Janet Henderson is great. But we will 0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:16.000 begin with James Glassman of JP Morgan, Jim Glassman here, 0:01:16.040 --> 0:01:20.600 and I want to frame August and wrap it around you. Travels, 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:24.759 which is everybody's telling us as a job shortage, job 0:01:24.800 --> 0:01:27.199 openings are there, this is that the other wage growth. 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:29.880 We'll get into all that. And yet there's twelve thousand 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:33.280 people lined up to fill cardboard boxes at Amazon. And 0:01:33.319 --> 0:01:35.800 the good thing about Jim Glassman is you're on the road, 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:39.600 not in the three zip codes that straddled James Diamond 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:42.399 to me and David Gura, what have you witnessed on 0:01:42.440 --> 0:01:46.399 the road about a fully employed America? Are one lined 0:01:46.480 --> 0:01:49.000 up to fill cardboard boxes at Amazon? Yeah? I mean 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:52.400 there are pockets that are struggling, but they're also pockets 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:56.680 out there that are just off the charts. Colorado, Nashville, Austin, 0:01:57.360 --> 0:02:00.280 West Coast, East Coast. We're doing fine. Actually, everybody is 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:02.919 doing pretty well. There are a few areas that are slow. 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:05.240 I think the problem for a lot of workers is 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:07.960 there's just been so much change in the workplace. There's 0:02:07.960 --> 0:02:10.919 a lot of automation, there's a lot of innovation. The 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:13.800 jobs that used to exist ten years ago don't exist anymore. 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:17.440 So you can find jobs, but the problem is they're 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:19.639 not paying the same thing unless you can scale up. 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:22.680 And that's really what our clients are telling us, is 0:02:22.680 --> 0:02:25.600 they that the kind of jobs they need don't have. 0:02:25.760 --> 0:02:28.320 They don't have people to write skills. Well. To me, 0:02:28.480 --> 0:02:31.280 that's music to my ears because that tells me that 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:34.320 something's changed over the last ten years. There are new 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:37.320 opportunities opening up, and we just got to figure out 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:39.880 how to get people steered there. I think a lot 0:02:39.919 --> 0:02:42.400 of community colleges are very focused on this. If you 0:02:42.440 --> 0:02:46.000 go to Miami Dade, all the very big community college systems, 0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:48.640 they've got a lot of programs for training people with 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:53.880 specific skills. And I suspect that we will figure out 0:02:53.960 --> 0:02:56.400 and then in another few years we'll probably not here 0:02:56.440 --> 0:02:59.160 as much about this story because I think people are 0:02:59.200 --> 0:03:00.919 figuring out that there are things out there. You just 0:03:00.960 --> 0:03:03.000 got to take the initiative to do something about it. 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:05.560 We were having a conversation with James Swingeing from Credits 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:08.160 was a little earlier just about what constitutes a skilled worker. 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:10.840 How much agreement is there on that, what? What what 0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:13.640 what we define as skilled worker as well? I don't know, 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:15.640 You've got to ask, you know, you need people who 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:19.800 know how to monitor computer systems and understand what what 0:03:19.960 --> 0:03:22.400 it is that all the stuff that's been mechanized, if 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:25.160 they've got to understand the process there. So you'll get 0:03:25.160 --> 0:03:27.920 a different story depending on where you look. I think 0:03:28.040 --> 0:03:31.360 what people tell you is you need people who learn 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:33.720 skills that we used to learn in shop class in 0:03:33.800 --> 0:03:36.840 high school. You've got to have some math skills, you 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:40.720 gotta know some programming, and honestly, you know, when I 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:42.400 think of it, I think of when I turned my 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:45.320 car into the local gas station to do routine maintenance. 0:03:45.680 --> 0:03:47.880 I took it in the other day, they say to me, 0:03:47.960 --> 0:03:50.320 can you come back in about three weeks because our 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:53.040 mechanic is out of town. He's on vacation. So no 0:03:53.120 --> 0:03:56.280 one no when there. You know, just maintaining a car 0:03:56.360 --> 0:03:58.600 has gotten much more complicated and you need to know 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:02.280 how to read the diagon gnostics and understand the way 0:04:02.360 --> 0:04:04.960 the car is working to make sense of that. So, 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:07.240 you know, my suspicion is that it's not It doesn't 0:04:07.280 --> 0:04:10.880 take an awful lot of training. The problem is it 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:14.880 isn't really in anyone businesses interest to do. I mean, 0:04:14.880 --> 0:04:18.000 if if you spend the money to train somebody up, uh, 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:20.920 then they become marketable and they jump, they go somewhere else. 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:23.320 So this is the role for the public sector and 0:04:23.400 --> 0:04:26.320 for the community colleges. It's a partnership that you needed 0:04:26.320 --> 0:04:28.480 to ask you about that because I think this administration 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:30.880 has been keen to point out the parallel they'd like 0:04:30.960 --> 0:04:33.839 to see between the US training system and that in 0:04:33.920 --> 0:04:36.440 Germany or other parts of Europe, and there it seems 0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:39.760 like you get an apprenticeship company, finances that in part 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:41.320 or at least in part, and then you stay with 0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:44.000 that company. How do you incentivize somebody who gets those 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:45.560 skills to stay? How do how do you make it 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:47.560 so that that person doesn't have those marketable skills and 0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:49.360 wants to leave. Well, you know, when you look to 0:04:49.720 --> 0:04:52.800 South Carolina and North Carolina where the European auto industry 0:04:52.800 --> 0:04:54.400 has come in, you see a lot of that going on. 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:57.520 And I think you know, to some extent, uh, you're 0:04:57.560 --> 0:05:00.880 not going to lose people if if the skills that 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:03.240 you're learning are specific to that company. But the way 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:05.320 you do it is you offer benefits to you know, 0:05:05.400 --> 0:05:08.240 tie people in, and I think people, honestly, I think 0:05:08.600 --> 0:05:13.960 you just people appreciate the opportunities to develop, to know 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:16.760 something about your company and to learn those skills. I 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:19.080 don't think people are that quick to jump. A lot 0:05:19.120 --> 0:05:21.159 of folks, you know where they sort of we like 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:22.719 to stay in our comfort zone. If you give me 0:05:22.760 --> 0:05:25.520 opportunities in my comfort zone, I'm happy to stay there. 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:27.480 So I don't think this problem is as big as 0:05:27.880 --> 0:05:30.000 you might think it is for the guy that learns 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:32.760 the welding. Because if there's a hot paying job up 0:05:32.760 --> 0:05:35.000 in North Dakota and you teach me how to do 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:37.200 welding down here, I'm gonna go. If I can get 0:05:37.200 --> 0:05:39.359 three times, this is really I was going to go 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:41.200 another wrangler. Well, this is what you do folks with 0:05:41.279 --> 0:05:44.120 Jim Glass and frankly with Mr Gross as well, you've 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:45.760 got something in your head to go to and they 0:05:45.800 --> 0:05:48.360 say something so damn smart, you gotta go the other way. 0:05:48.520 --> 0:05:50.680 Let's go the other way. On welders. I read a 0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:53.880 paper at Iowa University of Iowa, Iowa State, I think 0:05:53.880 --> 0:05:57.880 the wrestling school Iowa State, and it was about it's 0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:02.719 not about welders, it's about really good welders, average welders, 0:06:02.720 --> 0:06:04.839 and welders that are a joke. Now, let's take that 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:09.720 across the entire economy. The excellence and the demand for 0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:15.240 jobs is because employers only want the best flight attendants, 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:20.240 the best radio announcers, the best welders. Right, yeah, and 0:06:20.279 --> 0:06:22.080 you don't get that with the first guy you hire. 0:06:22.200 --> 0:06:24.080 This is something you learn on the job. Is it 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:25.960 different now than it was when you were at Northwestern 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:28.360 or Mr? Gore? I don't think so, because I didn't 0:06:28.360 --> 0:06:31.080 know anything when I started a job, and we know that. Yeah, yeah, 0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:33.400 and you know I don't you get hired. God knows. 0:06:36.480 --> 0:06:38.400 You have a great note out where you're looking at 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:40.680 our sense of worry about this this economy. I want 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:42.240 to dig into that a little bit if if I could. 0:06:42.240 --> 0:06:44.480 There's a lot of apprehension here, just sort of about 0:06:44.520 --> 0:06:46.360 where we might be headed if we're on the precipice 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:49.599 of a recession. Uh, the sense of doubt as well, 0:06:49.640 --> 0:06:52.000 that things at least with regard to the economy aren't 0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:53.320 as good or can't be as good for as long 0:06:53.320 --> 0:06:56.840 as we think they will be. How do you process that, Jim? Well, 0:06:56.839 --> 0:06:58.920 you know, it's always the case when you're coming out 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:01.279 of a really bad time, people are always worried over 0:07:01.360 --> 0:07:03.960 the overcautious. Then when finally we wake up and we 0:07:04.040 --> 0:07:05.800 realize here we are eight years. This is the eighth 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:08.640 labor Day of recovery from the Great Recession. When you 0:07:08.760 --> 0:07:11.440 realize you've done a good job recovering, then you start 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:13.760 to worry, oh my god, how can this last? And 0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:16.960 I think, you know, it's legitimate. It's it's legitimate to 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:19.520 think about this because our history books tell us that 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:22.800 these recoveries last six and nine years, and and for 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:25.600 some reason we we trip up and fall and fall 0:07:25.640 --> 0:07:28.040 back again. But if you look at why that happens, 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:32.680 inflation problems, financial accesses, I don't think there's anything anything 0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:35.120 to worry about. Frankly, myself, I think we've got a 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:38.080 very good chance that this recovery, now that we've recovered 0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:41.720 the losses from the recession, we're gonna this The longevity 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:44.560 of this cycle is probably gonna beat anything else we've seen. 0:07:45.160 --> 0:07:48.720 And so you know, it's natural to worry. Frankly, I'm 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:51.800 happy when people worry because that makes me think expectations 0:07:51.800 --> 0:07:54.680 are low. I'd like to hear people worry. We economists 0:07:54.680 --> 0:07:59.000 should worry when businesses stop worrying, and that makes that's 0:07:59.040 --> 0:08:00.840 what makes me nervous when you look at what might 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:02.840 be leading to that worry. Is there an indicator that 0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:04.800 stands out to you is something that is reasonable. You 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:06.920 look at the markets, say, and how how the stock 0:08:06.960 --> 0:08:09.200 market is is, for instance, is that something that gives 0:08:09.200 --> 0:08:12.280 one cause for concern. Stock market to me, is just 0:08:12.400 --> 0:08:14.640 a symptom of all this stuff. The thing that I 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:17.760 would worry about is if I started to see inflation problems. Well, 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:20.600 I don't see that those are the things. That is 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:23.000 the number one thing that always trips us up because 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:26.480 that forces the FED to step on the brakes, and 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:29.960 we tend to overdo it, and often that sets the 0:08:30.000 --> 0:08:31.960 stage for a new downturn. The other kind of thing 0:08:31.960 --> 0:08:34.520 that we've been seeing financial access is real estate go 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:38.040 back ten years, real estate values above what we have 0:08:38.120 --> 0:08:41.319 ever seen before relative to income. There's nothing like that 0:08:41.360 --> 0:08:43.800 out there. Only you know, maybe in the commercial real 0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:47.600 estate sector. You could argue that some assets are little pricing, 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:50.560 but you know, that's that's something that can correct quickly. 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:52.480 This is not like the real estate problems we saw 0:08:52.559 --> 0:08:59.360 last The employment employment employment to population ratio has been growing. 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:02.199 Women's you know, jobs and all that. From the sixties 0:09:02.640 --> 0:09:07.760 up to sixty percent of Americans employed. Then we created 0:09:08.000 --> 0:09:11.440 down to fifty eight percent, dragging themselves back the late 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:16.160 nineties seventies. We've come back, but we're nowhere near where 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:18.960 we were. Do you have a hope that we normalize 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:23.200 it's six from the present, because you know, I don't 0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:25.720 think we'll ever get there, because right now, for the 0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:29.360 next ten years or so, we've got this massive wave 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:31.880 of people who are approaching retirement. Why are you looking 0:09:31.920 --> 0:09:36.000 at me, I'm looking in the mirror. We've got twenty 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:39.200 million people who have turned into gone into the fifties 0:09:39.280 --> 0:09:43.280 or sixties. Those guys don't want to work and really 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:47.800 not think, but they want to retire in And what 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:49.959 you notice is when people get to about fifty years 0:09:50.000 --> 0:09:54.640 of age, they start scaling bad. Maybe you and I 0:09:54.720 --> 0:10:00.640 put up you know what I mean, had a massive Democrats, David, 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:03.360 I really suggest to smooth this over with, one of 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:06.120 our best guests is Dr Glassman should join us for 0:10:06.160 --> 0:10:09.000 a beverage of his choice on my grand Banks down 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:12.440 in the East River. It's the forty eight foot Grand Banks, Jim, 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:15.680 it's over your thirty fourth Street. It's called Tuition. He'll 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:19.040 be able to see it, you know. And I'm making 0:10:19.080 --> 0:10:21.439 a joke here, folks, because I know that Dr Glassman 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:24.320 is familiar with that boat as well. We'll continue with 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:27.720 Jim Glassman serious discussion on the state of the American 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:30.200 labor economy, and then we link it together with Bill 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:34.679 gross next Worldwide Coast to Coast Bloomberg Surveillance from our 0:10:34.720 --> 0:10:38.319 studios here on Lexington Avenue at fifty Street, right across 0:10:38.320 --> 0:10:42.120 from Bloomingdale's in New York City. Davy girl, what's New 0:10:42.200 --> 0:10:45.200 York about? It's about a justice with her picture on 0:10:45.200 --> 0:10:48.160 the wall down at the Federal Justice Building downtown where 0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:51.960 people become new citizens. And last night in section one 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:57.440 oh four Yankee Stadium there she was in taking in 0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:01.240 robe in row By might point out in the Judges 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:05.520 pretty one errand Judge Yes on cinema or in the 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:08.120 Bronx last night for that game against the Do you 0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:10.640 watch last night? I watched. I watched enough to know 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:14.480 I wanted to keep watching, but the three am beckoned 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:17.760 or to thirty am or whatever it was that's running anyways, 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:20.880 A major shout out to a Supreme Court justice who 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:24.920 got out with the people in right. Very nice last night. Justice. 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:28.079 We're with Jim Glassman, who knows about this, and to 0:11:28.160 --> 0:11:33.520 speak of the justice's heritage, which is Hispanic. We have 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:37.760 a huge announcement today by the President on immigration. Potentially 0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:39.760 I should say you have Toulouse or Na. Thank you 0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:42.360 so much for that perspective from the White House an 0:11:42.360 --> 0:11:45.599 hour ago. Jim Glassman, how does immigration fold into the 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:49.720 job's report right now? Well, uh, you know, the demographics, 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:53.240 the US demographics has the working age population slowing down 0:11:53.240 --> 0:11:55.920 a lot. We've had very little immigration in the last decade, 0:11:56.320 --> 0:11:58.120 and that's why we're getting all this recovery in the 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:01.520 job market with slow growth. Immigration is an important part 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:05.520 of what makes the US economy strong. And if if 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:09.080 the economy is doing better and we don't have the 0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:11.440 domestic workers to fill those jobs, we're going to see 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:14.000 more immigration. So want to give an hundred and fifty 0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:19.439 thousand of non farm payroll ten or twenty years ago, 0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:21.920 if it was two d or two twenty was the 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:25.680 delta immigration? Yeah, it seems it seems that might be 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:29.840 fifty or sixty or seventy. This is what's confusing everybody 0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:32.960 because we've never really when we talked about the broad economy, 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:35.960 we've never really had to talk about immigration because are 0:12:35.960 --> 0:12:39.600 about demographics. Because whatever demographics was going on in the 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:42.160 US immigration would tend to fill the gap. If we 0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:44.440 had the jobs and we didn't have the local workers, 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:47.000 we would we would draw people in. This is not 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:50.560 true in Italy or Japan. Uh demographics dominates and they're 0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:53.120 they're used to this story. We're having to talk about 0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:56.480 demographics because when we've not been getting the immigration, and 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:59.000 I think if if the economy does really start picking 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:02.320 up speed, you gotta wonder, when you're getting two thousand 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:04.840 jobs a month, where is this coming from. It might 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:07.079 be that we're starting to see a little more immigration. 0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:09.720 You go to Arizona. I mean, one thing you don't know, folks, 0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:12.120 is he's not just a radio star and television star. 0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:17.120 He lives in airports. When you go to Phoenix, what 0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:20.640 do you tell the audience of institutional and high net 0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:25.880 worth jpeoporgan people. Is immigration good for Senator Flank and 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:29.119 for Senator McCain. Yeah, I mean I think everybody realizes, 0:13:29.240 --> 0:13:32.480 particularly in Texas, immigration is an important part of their economy. 0:13:32.800 --> 0:13:35.720 Arizona has a more negative view of this because of 0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:39.240 the social problems that this brings. I don't really understand it, 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:42.920 but I think we all deep down realize that we 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:45.600 are a nation of immigrants, and this is what's made 0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:48.199 our economy strong. I think the issue is more about 0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:50.480 illegal and you know, we gotta we gotta solve this 0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:55.240 issue because immigration can solve a lot of issues. And 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:57.400 it's not just the people coming in, it's the kids. 0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:00.280 I see this in my neighborhood, the families coming in 0:14:00.320 --> 0:14:04.120 from India and Asia. They're obsessed with education. They drive 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:06.800 their kids into education. It's the next generation that really 0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:11.360 brings the value to what you know, to the country. 0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:13.520 And we all know this story because our parents and 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:16.160 our grandparents went through the same process. What can you 0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:18.640 tell us about the Republic of Texas. Our eyes are 0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:21.200 focused on that state right now in light of the 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:24.080 devastating storm that hit it earlier this week. We're talking 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:27.080 about immigration, obviously hugely important to that state as well. 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:28.840 What's the give us? Give us some context. You about 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:31.480 the importance to the U. S economy of the Texas economy. Well, 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:34.000 it's hugely important because of the energy sector, right, but 0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:37.240 it's also a really diverse economy. It's a real entrepreneur 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:41.040 to place and a real dynamic economy. Honestly, they're gonna 0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:43.440 recover from this fashion And people think because it's just 0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:47.520 a really dynamic place. And uh, it's it's important for 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:49.960 the U s economy. It was the big it's the 0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:52.480 leading edge of the recovery because of the what's going 0:14:52.520 --> 0:14:55.320 on the energy sector. You look at employment growth in Texas, 0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:58.480 it's doing over the last ten years. It's done better 0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:02.480 than anybody except for code during North Dakota. But honestly, 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:05.120 not many people want to go to North Dakota. So 0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:08.440 it's an important it's an important state. Healthcare is a 0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:11.080 gateway to the global to the to the global world. 0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:15.760 It's energy sector is pretty dynamic. It's pretty critical to 0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:19.000 the US economy. Jim Glass, wind with US will continue. 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:21.560 We'll go beneath the headline data here, David Gurr, we 0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:24.520 should say to our people because we're we're full disclosure. 0:15:25.080 --> 0:15:27.440 There are technical deficitions. This is this is interesting. We're 0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:29.480 gonna pull back the curtain here just a little bit. Uh. 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:31.640 You know, the data comes across the Bloomberg at eight 0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:35.520 thirty when those numbers are released, in part because some technicians, 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:37.600 some people within Bloomberg and other outlets are able to 0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:39.920 get those numbers first in put them into the system. 0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:42.320 There apparently are some technical difficulties across the board at 0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:45.400 the Labor Department preventing that from happening today. So at 0:15:45.440 --> 0:15:48.160 eight thirty, we you, everybody will go to the web 0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:50.600 to get those data from the Labor Department. And that's 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:52.640 going to cause a bit of a delay here as 0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:55.480 we have to sort of pass through the numbers outside 0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:57.800 of the usual framework that we get them in. So 0:15:57.880 --> 0:15:59.440 it may be that we don't get the numbers right 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:01.520 at eight thirty. My be a few seconds afterwards today. 0:16:01.600 --> 0:16:04.080 Could you turn around, David and turn on the studio lights. Yes, 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:08.960 we'll be here worldwide on minutes. Yeah, yeah, I gotta 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:11.400 get the orange going on the skin. You know, where's 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:14.800 Mr Bayner when I knew? Uh? Futures up, six down, 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:17.560 futures up sixty five Jobs today with Jim Glass one in, 0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:32.680 Bill Gross, stay with us. Welcome morning, David Gurra and 0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:35.240 Tom Keene in New York, Bluebrick Surveillance on Bloomberg Radio. 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:37.000 On Jobs Today, we go out door colleague Vine Delle 0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:39.000 Judas at the first Word desk for the latest jobs 0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:41.880 numbers against some quirkiness here this morning, Vinney, Yes, David, 0:16:41.960 --> 0:16:46.440 job unemployment. Let's let me just start over payroll growth 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:49.520 slowed in August one hundred and fifty six thousand the 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:52.320 prior month, an increase of one hundred eighty nine thousand, 0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:56.440 the unemployment rate meantime creeping up to four point four percent, 0:16:56.680 --> 0:16:59.960 Private payrolls up by one hundred sixty five thousand, looking 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:03.240 at average hourly earnings, a sore point up just point 0:17:03.280 --> 0:17:05.919 one percent. Yes, there were some problems. The government had 0:17:05.920 --> 0:17:08.760 a little trouble getting the news out this morning, but 0:17:09.160 --> 0:17:11.520 that hit on time just the same at eight thirtiesome 0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:15.480 computer issues again. The Labor Department reporting non farm payrolls 0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:18.600 rose by one hundred fifty six thousand. That's slower than 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:21.639 a prior month. That is below Wall Street forecasting. Unemployment 0:17:21.720 --> 0:17:24.520 rate up a notch four point four percent, and average 0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:26.960 hourly earnings. I can't over emphasize this. This is a 0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:29.520 sore point up just point one percent in August, and 0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:33.280 I might add the July earnings increased revised down. I'm finite, 0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:35.800 s Bloomberg Radio. Let's go back to New York. These 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:39.400 are extraordinary numbers. We think our team in Washington, particularly 0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:42.800 this morning, led by Brendan Murray, forgetting this out. There 0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:46.040 was some technical difficulties but we're acting normal with yields in. 0:17:47.000 --> 0:17:49.800 You equity futures don't do much, David Guru, but yields 0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:55.200 in with curve flattening, it's just it's just a lighter 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:58.320 tone to the data. With the unemployment rate again up 0:17:58.359 --> 0:18:02.280 four point for sind you know you look at moving averages, 0:18:02.359 --> 0:18:04.520 Jim Blaste, which I know you love, and again this 0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:08.439 pushes against the moving average vector that we want to 0:18:08.480 --> 0:18:12.680 go up a hundred and fifty six thousand. With negative 0:18:12.720 --> 0:18:16.480 forty one revision that gets you down to a hundred 0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:19.239 and ten thousand. Yeah, I think the what you're going 0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:22.880 to hear from my community is don't trust the initial 0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:26.879 estimate of August because in the past seventeen years, with 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:30.240 the exception of three years, you've seen this August number 0:18:30.280 --> 0:18:32.639 get revised up by an average of seventy five thousand 0:18:32.680 --> 0:18:34.880 by the time it's all in. So I think you've 0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:36.800 got to be a little leery of this kind of stuff. 0:18:37.400 --> 0:18:39.920 People were saying even when we saw the ADP number, 0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:42.600 they were telling you this, The information we're getting from 0:18:42.600 --> 0:18:46.080 the labor market is frankly quite good. The jobless claims 0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:49.919 trend is gotten lower, ADP is finding an awful lot 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:52.760 of employment. So I think with these monthly numbers, you 0:18:52.760 --> 0:18:56.400 have to be a little careful, particularly August, particularly August. Yeah, 0:18:56.560 --> 0:18:58.560 just to continue to process what we're seeing here. How 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:01.359 big a deal is that headline? Miss said, do you think, Jim, 0:19:01.600 --> 0:19:03.400 I don't think it's that big of deal. I've I've 0:19:03.400 --> 0:19:05.879 got people worth sort of in the one two D 0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:08.720 thousand range, and the people who thought one fifty were saying, 0:19:08.760 --> 0:19:13.040 there is this series. There's a significant bias that shows 0:19:13.119 --> 0:19:14.919 up in August. The things tend to get revised up, 0:19:15.680 --> 0:19:17.720 so don't be surprised if you see a two D 0:19:18.040 --> 0:19:20.520 number out of this. Jim Glass, thank you so much. 0:19:20.600 --> 0:19:25.680 It's JP Morgan as well. And now in Bloomberg Radio, 0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:28.800 Bloomberg Television, Good morning, Alex. Still looking forward to the 0:19:28.840 --> 0:19:31.240 comments of Gary Cohen from the White House Law and 0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:33.200 I know, Alex, you'll do that here in a bit. 0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:36.480 Now we welcome William gross Off, Janet Snderson our coverage 0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:39.119 of this job's report, how it folds into markets, and 0:19:39.200 --> 0:19:45.040 particularly how it folds into a most interesting September in Washington. 0:19:45.160 --> 0:19:47.280 I guess Bill gross I look at this and I 0:19:47.320 --> 0:19:51.120 see the revisions down in a little soggy report. It's 0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:55.439 once again putting a good month back together with another 0:19:55.480 --> 0:19:58.440 good month and another good month after that. We can't 0:19:58.480 --> 0:20:02.840 seem to get there. I think that's true. And I 0:20:02.880 --> 0:20:07.199 think August, you know, historically has has been different and 0:20:07.280 --> 0:20:09.919 been a little bit weak. But nonetheless, um, you know, 0:20:10.000 --> 0:20:13.520 the wage revisions I think strike me the most, and 0:20:13.720 --> 0:20:16.199 the point one in terms of the wage growth strikes 0:20:16.200 --> 0:20:19.840 me as well. You know it inflation tongue, not job 0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:23.400 growth dominates central bank thinking these days. And uh, well, 0:20:23.440 --> 0:20:26.960 I think low unemployment percentages historically have led the higher 0:20:27.000 --> 0:20:32.240 wages and inflationary pressures, and the fabled Phillips curve which 0:20:32.240 --> 0:20:35.080 assumes this, Um, I think it appears to be broken. 0:20:35.200 --> 0:20:38.080 And and your are of your core inflation, which is 0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:40.840 what the film looks at, is increasing only at one 0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:43.160 point four percent, and it's down from the two point 0:20:43.240 --> 0:20:46.640 one percent only six six months ago. So I think 0:20:46.640 --> 0:20:50.000 the fit is focused on wages and uh certainly inflation 0:20:50.640 --> 0:20:53.240 to the extent that wages are reflective in that. Let's 0:20:53.240 --> 0:20:55.880 try and and and this is a weak report, Let's 0:20:55.920 --> 0:20:59.359