WEBVTT - Investors Ready for Fed Rate Decision; Cool China Eco Data

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank Karen.

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<v Speaker 3>Our focus is on the markets this morning, as we

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<v Speaker 3>head into the final full week of trading in twenty

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<v Speaker 3>twenty four. Investors get key economic data this week, with

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<v Speaker 3>retail sales due out tomorrow and November's core PCE, the

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<v Speaker 3>Fed's preferred gage of inflation on Friday. Traders also have

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<v Speaker 3>a slew of central bank meetings to follow. Rate decisions

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<v Speaker 3>from the Bank of Japan and Bank of England come

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<v Speaker 3>after Wednesday's FED meeting. Goldman Sachs economists have a note

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<v Speaker 3>out this morning saying they expect a twenty five basis

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<v Speaker 3>point reduction from the Fed this week, followed by a

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<v Speaker 3>pause in January. Consensus is a likely cut on Wednesday,

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<v Speaker 3>but former New York Fed President Bill Dudley says the

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<v Speaker 3>path for rate cuts in.

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<v Speaker 2>Twenty twenty five remains unclear.

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<v Speaker 4>Last time in September, they had four recuts for twenty

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<v Speaker 4>five base point recuts twenty twenty five, So this title

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<v Speaker 4>will be two or three second. I think I'll talk

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<v Speaker 4>about how inflation is a little bit sticky.

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<v Speaker 2>The economy is doing really well.

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<v Speaker 4>You'll price se some upper revisions of the FED estimates

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<v Speaker 4>of so called our star, the neutral rate. So I

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<v Speaker 4>think all those things together will make it pretty clear

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<v Speaker 4>that Janguary is probably.

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<v Speaker 5>Going to be a pause.

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<v Speaker 3>And former New York Fed President Bill Dudley also tells

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg the FED expects tax cuts from the first Trump

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<v Speaker 3>administration to be extended, and we'll take that into account

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<v Speaker 3>as it decides how to ease monetary policy next year.

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<v Speaker 3>Stick with Bloomberg for live coverage of this Wednesday's FED

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<v Speaker 3>decision will bring you a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.

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<v Speaker 3>The Fed decides with Jonathan Farroll, Lisa Bromwoitz, and Tom

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<v Speaker 3>Keane on Bloomberg Radio and Television.

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<v Speaker 2>Well and Politics, Nathan.

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<v Speaker 1>Much of the focus remains on policy and how a

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<v Speaker 1>second Trump administration will implement proposed tax and a tariff policies.

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<v Speaker 2>To be specific.

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<v Speaker 1>Former Trump economic advisor Gary Colin told CBS.

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<v Speaker 2>Has faced the Nation this weekend.

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<v Speaker 1>He expects taxes to be a major focus of the

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<v Speaker 1>coming administration.

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<v Speaker 6>We do know that taxes will be taken up by

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<v Speaker 6>this Congress in this session. We know that they're going

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<v Speaker 6>to have to deal with the personal side of the

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<v Speaker 6>equation because if not, the personal side will revert back

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<v Speaker 6>to the pre twenty seventeen tax code.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think anyone wants on.

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<v Speaker 6>Either side the Aisle wants to go back to the

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<v Speaker 6>prior tax code.

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<v Speaker 1>Former Trump economic advisor Gary Cohene was speaking on CBS's

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<v Speaker 1>Face the Nation, which you can hear every weekend right

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<v Speaker 1>here on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>Also in focus something that's turned into more of a

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<v Speaker 3>political issue now Karen drone sidings across the northeast. New

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<v Speaker 3>Jersey Governor Phil Murphy and New York Governor Kathy Hocheler

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<v Speaker 3>among state leaders demanding expanded authority to act against drones

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<v Speaker 3>That could appear as a thread, but Homeland Security Secretary

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<v Speaker 3>Alejandro Majorcis tells ABC's This Week Americans will likely see

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<v Speaker 3>more drones, but there is no evidence of foreign involvement

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<v Speaker 3>or a national security risk.

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<v Speaker 7>I want to assure the American public that we are

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<v Speaker 7>on it. We are working in close coordination with state

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<v Speaker 7>and local authorities, and it is critical, as we all

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<v Speaker 7>have said for a number of years, that we need

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<v Speaker 7>from Congress additional authorities to address the drawne situation.

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<v Speaker 3>Homeland Security Secretary Alajondromericus also says drone fightings may be

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<v Speaker 3>increasing due to the Federal Aviation Administration deciding last year

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<v Speaker 3>to allow nighttime drone flights.

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<v Speaker 1>Meanwhile, Nathan at the White House, the Biden administration has

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<v Speaker 1>plenty to take action on land protections, clemency, and artificial

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<v Speaker 1>intelligence in his final weeks in office. According to a

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<v Speaker 1>memo to allies, the President's aiming to codify his legacy

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<v Speaker 1>before a President elect Trump's inauguration.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's repairing a flurry.

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<v Speaker 1>Of executive orders, some on his first day that could

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<v Speaker 1>take aim at key planks of the Biden agenda.

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<v Speaker 3>Star Back to markets now, Karen, because bitcoin has hit

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<v Speaker 3>another all time high. The digital asset continues to soar

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<v Speaker 3>on optimism over a second Trump administration, reaching another record high,

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<v Speaker 3>surpassing one hundred and six thousand dollars. That advanced also

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<v Speaker 3>helped to boost sentiment in the wider crypto market. The

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<v Speaker 3>President elect is moving forward toward creating a friendly regulatory

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<v Speaker 3>backdrop for digital assets and is back the idea of

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<v Speaker 3>a strategic national bitcoin stockpile and checking bitcoin prices right now,

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<v Speaker 3>They're off that one oh six record now trading at

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<v Speaker 3>about one hundred and four thousand, six hundred dollars on.

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<v Speaker 1>Nathan Weturn overseas now to the continued economic slowdown in China.

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<v Speaker 1>China's retail sales growth and expectedly weakened in November despite

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<v Speaker 1>signs of improvement in the housing market. City head of

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<v Speaker 1>Emerging Market Economies Johanna Chua said the data highlights the

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<v Speaker 1>need for Beijing to introduce more measures to boost spending.

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<v Speaker 8>We really need to see actual consumption stimulus. I mean,

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<v Speaker 8>what do we have so far this year has been

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<v Speaker 8>very small, you know, targeted cash subsidies before the Golden

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<v Speaker 8>Week or even the consumer trade in programs. I really

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<v Speaker 8>expect going into twenty twenty five, which we've already seen

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<v Speaker 8>this signal that we should get a larger fiscal stimulus

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<v Speaker 8>with a composition much more skew towards consumption.

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<v Speaker 1>And City's Johanna Cheua says the global headwinds and on

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<v Speaker 1>certainty of a second Trump administration's policy does not instill

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<v Speaker 1>confidence in jobs and income prospects in China.

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<v Speaker 3>And China's soft retail sales reading is weighing on oil

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<v Speaker 3>as well. Karen Crude slipped after advancing last week. Consumer

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<v Speaker 3>weakness in China is reinforcing concerns over weakening demand, with

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<v Speaker 3>the country's creud refining dipping to its lowest level in

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<v Speaker 3>five months in November. Checking well prices right now, Nimex

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<v Speaker 3>crudes down one percent at about seventy dollars fifty seven

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<v Speaker 3>cents per barrel. Brent is down eight tens of one

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<v Speaker 3>percent at seventy three dollars ninety three cents.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Nathan, and Europe, we're getting a sense of monetary

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<v Speaker 1>policy this morning. European Central Bank President Christine Laguard talked

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<v Speaker 1>about the path for rate cuts while speaking in Lithuania today,

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<v Speaker 1>saying she expects a further reduction in rates as the

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<v Speaker 1>ECB approaches its two percent inflation target.

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<v Speaker 9>We are close to achieving our target, so we are

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<v Speaker 9>no longer in a situation where we need to fix

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<v Speaker 9>the policy horizon at the shortest possible transmission, like we

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<v Speaker 9>can return to a situation the policy horizon can a

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<v Speaker 9>just depending on the nature, size and persistence of the

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<v Speaker 9>shock as needed.

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<v Speaker 1>He's to be President, Christine Leaguard, as is the Central

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<v Speaker 1>Bank well came monetary policy sufficiently restrictive for as long

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<v Speaker 1>as necessary to reach its inflation target.

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<v Speaker 3>Staying overseas, Karen, let's get you updated on the political

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<v Speaker 3>turmoil in South Korea. The country's parliament voted to impeach

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<v Speaker 3>President yunsukyol on Saturday, following his brief martial law declaration.

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<v Speaker 3>With Yun's duty suspended, he now awaits a ruling from

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<v Speaker 3>South Korea's Constitutional Court on whether he will be removed

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<v Speaker 3>or restored to office. That decision can take up to

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<v Speaker 3>one hundred and eighty days from the passage of impeachment.

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<v Speaker 2>And finally, back at home, Nathan.

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<v Speaker 1>An update on the deadly shooting of United Health CEO

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<v Speaker 1>Brian Thompson. Police claim to have overwhelming evidence that suspected

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<v Speaker 1>gunman Luigi Maggioni fatally shot Thompson in Midtown Manhattan, with

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<v Speaker 1>evidence including video footage, fingerprints, a weapon, and a manifesto

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<v Speaker 1>to crying the healthcare industry. Mangioni remains at a Pennsylvania

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<v Speaker 1>jail fighting extradition to New York and hired high powered

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<v Speaker 1>New York defense attorney Karen Friedman Agnefilo to represent him,

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<v Speaker 1>and she could argue an insanity defense or challenge the

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<v Speaker 1>evidence and may consider a guilty plea to reduce his

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<v Speaker 1>potential prison term. Time. Now for a look at some

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<v Speaker 1>of the other stories making news in New York and

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<v Speaker 1>around the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's

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<v Speaker 1>John Tucker.

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<v Speaker 10>John Good Morning, Good Morning, Karen toom Atwinzer to New

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<v Speaker 10>York City's mayor resigns, joining a wave of departures is

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<v Speaker 10>a corruption probe Titans. Let's get more in this report

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<v Speaker 10>this morning from Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger.

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<v Speaker 11>Ingrid Lewis Martin is one of Mayor Eric Adams's closest

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<v Speaker 11>confidants and longest serving aids. She is one of a

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<v Speaker 11>dozen senior administration officials who have retired or resigned since

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<v Speaker 11>late September, when Adams became the first New York City

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<v Speaker 11>mayor in modern history to be indicted on federal corruption charges.

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<v Speaker 11>Lewis Martin and has been scrutinized as part of the

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<v Speaker 11>multiple investigations into Adams and his administration. Investigator seized her

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<v Speaker 11>phone when she returned from a trip to Japan the

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<v Speaker 11>day after the mayor was indicted. She is being investigated

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<v Speaker 11>as part of a probe opened by the Manhattan District

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<v Speaker 11>Attorney I'm Jeff Bellinger Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 10>Israel struckt Syrian weapons depots and air defenses over the

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<v Speaker 10>weekend in what appeared to be part of an effort

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<v Speaker 10>Israel says is aimed at depriving extremists of military assets

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<v Speaker 10>after the rebels seize power in Syria. In all, Israel

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<v Speaker 10>struck its neighbors seventy five times at attacks that began

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<v Speaker 10>Saturday night near the Syrian capital Damascus. Unionized to Amazon

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<v Speaker 10>workers at two New York warehouses gave leaders the authority

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<v Speaker 10>to call a strike as soon as next week. It

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<v Speaker 10>threatens a work stoppage unless the e commerce giant comes

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<v Speaker 10>to the bargaining table. The International Brotherhood of Teamsters gave

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<v Speaker 10>Amazon a December fifteenth deadline to begin negotiating in earnest

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<v Speaker 10>or faces strike off at least fifty five hundred workers

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<v Speaker 10>just ten days before Christmas. France's new Prime Minister of France,

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<v Speaker 10>Woiberreul is meeting with far right leader Marine la Penn today.

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<v Speaker 10>It kicks off an effort to form a government that

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<v Speaker 10>could push a budget through a divide in parliament. The

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<v Speaker 10>effort to form a government and craft a budget took

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<v Speaker 10>on added the urgency at the Moody's ratings over the

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<v Speaker 10>weekend cut France's credit rating, citing it's weak finances and

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<v Speaker 10>political gridlock. Global News twenty four hours to day whenever

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<v Speaker 10>you want at Bloomberg News. Now, I'm John Tucker, and

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<v Speaker 10>this is Bloomberg. Karen.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, John, thank you, and it's time now for

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Sports Up Day, brought to you by Try

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<v Speaker 1>State Out. He here's John stash Hour, John, good morning, Good.

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<v Speaker 5>Morning, Carey.

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<v Speaker 12>The NFL Sunday and begain with another flyover at Medlighte Stadium,

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<v Speaker 12>again directed at Giants owner John Marra, this one with

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<v Speaker 12>the words enough, we won't stop until you fire everyone.

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<v Speaker 12>And then the Giants with the club record time ninth

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<v Speaker 12>loss in a row, unable to stop the Baltimore Evans quarterback.

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<v Speaker 2>That's it. What's the throw?

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<v Speaker 13>Spreading to the right, spreads out, valley goes deep. He's

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<v Speaker 13>got a man wide opener shot. Bavement has it at

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<v Speaker 13>the ten paston.

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<v Speaker 12>Of five sacks up to Jackler touchdown. Riggins pres Shan

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<v Speaker 12>Bateman on a beautiful catch from Lenard Jackson's throw on

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<v Speaker 12>WBAL one of five Jackson td passes had more TV

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<v Speaker 12>passes than incompletions. Baltimore beat the Giants thirty five to fourteen.

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<v Speaker 12>The Giants at QB started Tommy Devido and then finished

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<v Speaker 12>with Tim Boyle due to a DeVito concussion. They've now

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<v Speaker 12>played four different qbs of the last five games, and

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<v Speaker 12>none have played all that well. Giants are two and twelve,

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<v Speaker 12>oh win eight at home. The Jets, with their fourth win,

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<v Speaker 12>only the second the last nine games. They won at

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<v Speaker 12>Jacksonville thirty two to twenty five. That's the most points

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<v Speaker 12>they scored all season. Aaron Rodgers three TD passes, two

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<v Speaker 12>to Devonte Adams, who had one.

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<v Speaker 2>Hundred and ninety eight receiving yards.

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<v Speaker 12>Patriots dropped to three and eleven and lost to Arizona

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<v Speaker 12>thirty to seventeen. The Commanders a twenty to nineteen winning

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<v Speaker 12>New Orleans. The Saints scored on the final play but

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<v Speaker 12>got stopped on the game winning two point conversion at ten.

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<v Speaker 12>Two late afternoon games that are possible Super Bowl previews,

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<v Speaker 12>Buffalo won at Detroit forty eight forty two, with Josh

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<v Speaker 12>Allen in on four touchdowns. He was in on six

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<v Speaker 12>last week. Jared got through five ten passes in defeat.

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<v Speaker 12>It's the Lions first loss in three months. Philadelphia hasn't

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<v Speaker 12>lost since September. The Eagles easily beat Pittsburgh twenty seven

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<v Speaker 12>to thirteen. Kansas City stands alone at NFL best thirteen

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<v Speaker 12>and one. The Chiefs won twenty one seven at Cleveland.

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<v Speaker 12>O Patrick Mahomes left early with an ankle injury. Last night,

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<v Speaker 12>Green Bay beat Seattle thirty to thirteen. Nicks one in

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<v Speaker 12>Orlando one hundred and ninety one. The Rangers struggles continue

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<v Speaker 12>at three to two loss in Saint Louis. The Islanders

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<v Speaker 12>won five to three at Chicago. John Stash Edward Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 12>Sports Karen.

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<v Speaker 5>Nathan Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:51.920
<v Speaker 5>and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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<v Speaker 5>Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm

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<v Speaker 5>Nathan Hager. The wave of central bank decisions around the

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<v Speaker 5>world crashes.

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<v Speaker 13>Into the US this week.

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<v Speaker 3>The FED begins its final policy meeting of twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 3>four tomorrow with the rate decision on Wednesday, and we're

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<v Speaker 3>also going to hear from the Bank of Japan and

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<v Speaker 3>the Bank of England before this final full training week

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<v Speaker 3>of twenty twenty four is out here to get a

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<v Speaker 3>set for at all. Bloomberg Radio and TV anchor Kritty Gufta,

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<v Speaker 3>so critty. It seems like a cut this week from

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<v Speaker 3>the Fed is just about baked into this market. But

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<v Speaker 3>the big question remains, what about twenty twenty five?

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<v Speaker 5>Good morning, Good.

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<v Speaker 13>Morning, Nathan. Yeah, that seems to be the question.

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<v Speaker 14>Goldman Sachs, for example, already saying that that's where you

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<v Speaker 14>get a rate cut skip for example. And remember this

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<v Speaker 14>was a really key strategy that the Fed had done

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<v Speaker 14>on the way up where they were hiking. They said

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<v Speaker 14>we would maybe hike, take a pause, hike again and

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<v Speaker 14>just give the economy a second to digest at a

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<v Speaker 14>time when they need to act quickly, but not enough

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<v Speaker 14>to kind of shock the system. And luckily, the economy

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<v Speaker 14>was able to digest every single rate hike, even when

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<v Speaker 14>they were say fifty basis points or seventy five basis

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<v Speaker 14>points or even one hundred basis It feels like they

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<v Speaker 14>may be doing the same thing on the way down.

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<v Speaker 14>I have no insight, no crystal ball, but that is

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<v Speaker 14>something that Goldman Sacks is suggesting could be a possibility

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<v Speaker 14>in terms of that strategy.

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<v Speaker 13>Because it had worked on the way up as well.

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<v Speaker 14>But Nathan, the concern I think is what happens if

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<v Speaker 14>you startainly get more inflation in twenty twenty five.

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<v Speaker 13>That's when cutting is not the strategy that works.

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<v Speaker 3>What's to stop the Fed from going ahead and pausing

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<v Speaker 3>this week? Is it just about the messaging that's been

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<v Speaker 3>put out there that if they sort of gave the

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<v Speaker 3>market a head fake like that, that it would cause

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<v Speaker 3>even more volatility.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a really hard question.

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<v Speaker 14>I can't see why, just given kind of the message

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<v Speaker 14>that they've given so far, why there would be hesitation

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<v Speaker 14>simply because when they have looked at things, citing the

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<v Speaker 14>labor market for example, they've said there's been a lot

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<v Speaker 14>of strength, but that they do want to ensure that

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<v Speaker 14>that strength continues, and that there is still a lot

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<v Speaker 14>of hikes kind of bakes the system. So even cutting

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<v Speaker 14>that policy still leaves the federal reserve at a fairly

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<v Speaker 14>restrictive level.

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<v Speaker 13>They're just kind of creating a little bit of that headroom.

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<v Speaker 14>So that's at least the argument that's been posed by

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<v Speaker 14>a lot of these FOMC members when it comes to

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<v Speaker 14>labor market. Even when it comes to the CPI. But Nathan,

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<v Speaker 14>I imagine when you look at the commentary, that's where

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<v Speaker 14>you need to see where their head is at. Because

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<v Speaker 14>in previous iterations of this of these kind of concerns

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<v Speaker 14>about economic resilience out of the United States, some members,

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<v Speaker 14>some economists even on Wall Street, including a very own

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<v Speaker 14>analog at Bloomer Economics, have pointed to cracks that are

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<v Speaker 14>not in say, your top tier markets, but are in

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<v Speaker 14>smaller markets in the United States. Let me elaborate, the

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<v Speaker 14>housing market has come up multiple times in that even

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<v Speaker 14>though you're seeing some extreme property value jumps in New York, La, Miami, etc.

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<v Speaker 14>You are starting to see cracks in the likes of Seattle,

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<v Speaker 14>and the likes of Dallas, and the likes of kind

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<v Speaker 14>of the smaller markets that are maybe say Tier two

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<v Speaker 14>cities for example. Another place you may see it is

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<v Speaker 14>that some of the major industries have been laying off

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<v Speaker 14>workers and not kind of replenishing that work supply.

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<v Speaker 13>I've seen a lot in the IT industry. You've seen

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<v Speaker 13>it a lot in.

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<v Speaker 14>Kind of more public funded roles like teaching, for example.

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<v Speaker 14>That's really where some of the data is starting to

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<v Speaker 14>come up. But net net, the numbers on wage growth,

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<v Speaker 14>on CPI, on labor, even on housing prices have been positive.

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<v Speaker 14>So when they're saying that they want to potentially cut rates,

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<v Speaker 14>and it's in response to not slowing any of that

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<v Speaker 14>down but perhaps creating a little bit more headroom where

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<v Speaker 14>they may need it.

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<v Speaker 13>In twenty twenty five.

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<v Speaker 3>And just thirty seconds left, is there a concern that

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<v Speaker 3>the Fed that Trump policy is going to force them

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<v Speaker 3>to keep stay more restrictive.

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<v Speaker 14>I mean, that's the highlight, that's the elephant in the room, right.

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<v Speaker 14>The idea that in twenty nineteen J. Powell and the

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<v Speaker 14>first things he did was cut interest rates when Donald

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<v Speaker 14>Trump was talking about a trade war with China was

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<v Speaker 14>the first inclination of it. And that actually worked because

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<v Speaker 14>again it created more headroom. But the question is do

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<v Speaker 14>you create insurance rate cuts given that the lag could

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<v Speaker 14>still be twelve to eighteen months, And that's the strategy

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<v Speaker 14>that no one has quite figured out yet.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg day Break, your morning podcast on the

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Karen Moscow and I'm Nathan Hager.

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