WEBVTT - Israel Vows Retaliation, VP Debate 0:00:02.440 --> 0:00:09.119 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:09.160 --> 0:00:13.320 Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:13.360 --> 0:00:16.360 Eastern on Apple card playing Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:00:16.400 --> 0:00:19.720 Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:19.960 --> 0:00:22.320 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.120 --> 0:00:26.360 All right, let's switch our attention back to the geopolitics, 0:00:26.640 --> 0:00:29.680 the story of the really the last forty eight seventy 0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:33.840 two hours of what's happening in the Middle East. Aaron 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:36.239 David Miller joins us. He's a senior fellow with the 0:00:36.240 --> 0:00:39.680 Carnegian Downmond for International Piece, joining us from Washington, DC 0:00:39.880 --> 0:00:43.160 via zoom. Aaron, thanks so much for taking the time here. Again, 0:00:43.280 --> 0:00:46.200 it's front and center here for not just geo politics, 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:49.159 but also for financial markets. And that's why we hear 0:00:49.159 --> 0:00:52.080 Bloomberger paying close attention to what's happening in the Middle East. 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:52.360 Here. 0:00:52.760 --> 0:00:56.160 We had the Iranian attack yesterday. Love for you to 0:00:56.200 --> 0:00:59.600 put that attack into context of what is happening in 0:00:59.640 --> 0:01:01.560 the Middle overall. What's next for Israel? 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:04.160 Yeah, you know you got thanks for having me here. 0:01:04.959 --> 0:01:08.080 You've got three wars of attrition going on. One greatest 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:12.200 role in the moss is one's ball on Israel and Iran, 0:01:12.280 --> 0:01:16.920 which is the premiere event here and over the last 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:20.440 several weeks. As a consequence of Israeli actions in Isabella, 0:01:20.520 --> 0:01:23.240 the balance of power in these three wars of attrition, 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:25.280 it's fundamentally been altered. 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:27.920 His Boula is a ver shadow of itself. 0:01:28.319 --> 0:01:32.640 Israeli's estimate, they've they've eliminated half of its high trajectory 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:36.400 weapons inventory, and those weapons were designed by Iran in 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:39.319 order to provide a contingency in the event Israel or 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:41.840 the US attacked around the nuclear sides. Well that's more 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:45.560 or less degraded. So the Iranians needed to find a 0:01:45.560 --> 0:01:49.400 way to respond both to the Israeli assassination of Ismaila 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:52.000 ne on July thirty one, leader of Amas. It was 0:01:52.040 --> 0:01:55.240 really didn't think responsibility for that yet, and of course 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:59.880 the most recent hit on Hassan Azula, the head of 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:02.640 as a publish So they looked for a response that 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:06.400 did more than what they did mid April, you recall, 0:02:06.480 --> 0:02:09.360 and they landlu three hundred high trajectory weapons of Israel. 0:02:09.360 --> 0:02:13.960 Most didn't even impact Israeli airspace, but not to trigger 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:16.880 a major Israeli escalation. I don't think they found the 0:02:16.880 --> 0:02:19.959 sweet spot one hundred and eighty Creuse missiles. Even though 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:24.240 Iron Dome David slang Arrow intercepted a lot of them. 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:29.880 US Navy two destroyers took down twelve. The Jordanians participated 0:02:30.919 --> 0:02:35.440 too many got through and two Israelis were lightly wounded, 0:02:35.440 --> 0:02:39.400 and ironically, a Palestinian man from Gaza who was in 0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:44.440 Jericho was killed. But even though there were no casualties 0:02:45.120 --> 0:02:48.160 of a consequential nature other than the unfortunate death of 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:53.560 the Palestinian man, the Israelis now have to respond in 0:02:53.560 --> 0:02:57.440 and at least portraying their thinking to avoid creating a 0:02:57.480 --> 0:02:58.600 new normal. 0:02:58.480 --> 0:02:59.239 A second time. 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:03.760 The running substruct Israeli territory, and they're going to respond. 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:08.320 Biden's going to talk to Ntayahu today before the Rosa 0:03:08.400 --> 0:03:11.680 Chana holidays. But I think these really responses are going 0:03:11.680 --> 0:03:18.680 to be heavy, multiple targets, oil export facilities, running revolutionary Guard, 0:03:18.680 --> 0:03:22.360 core command and control, conventional military sites. 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:25.720 The nuclear piece fascinating, yep. 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:28.440 I'm sure the argument's being made that now is the 0:03:28.520 --> 0:03:32.799 time for any number of reasons. I'm thinking, though, coordinating 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:36.320 with the Americans, I don't think the Israelis are going 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:40.080 to go after the enrichment facilities, very deep underground. 0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:40.720 But we'll see. 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:46.120 Well, you mentioned that you have the Richmond facilities under mountains. 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:49.800 In fact, is that even targetable at this point with 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:53.680 just with airstrikes right. 0:03:53.560 --> 0:03:57.640 Where you need bunker busters, you need shock and awe, 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:00.960 which only the US military can actually need deliver. You 0:04:01.000 --> 0:04:06.200 need a degree of saturation and redundancy. Despite israel skill 0:04:06.240 --> 0:04:11.839 and operational capacity, he's really stone half. Nonetheless, I mean, 0:04:12.200 --> 0:04:14.800 I still wouldn't rule it out as part of the 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:16.120 target set. 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:19.120 And then the question is. 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:23.360 Of course how and in what fashion will will the 0:04:23.480 --> 0:04:28.320 Runnings respond? I mean, without much imagination, you could, you know, 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:31.960 you could envision a hopskip and a jump to something 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:35.120 the Middle East has never experienced before, which is a 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:38.920 multi front walk, not with employment of thousands of ground forces, 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:43.880 but UAVs AI, cyber cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, one way 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:47.520 attack groans where Iran if it said badly enough going 0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:51.120 after Saudi oil bruising facilities, which they did as you 0:04:51.200 --> 0:04:52.520 were calling twenty nineteen. 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:54.200 So we're closer. 0:04:54.360 --> 0:04:56.880 I'm still not convinced we're going to get there. Iron's 0:04:56.920 --> 0:04:59.840 weak and it understands the symmetry of power which I. 0:04:59.800 --> 0:05:02.080 Fa So, Aaron, I look for you to kind of 0:05:02.080 --> 0:05:05.240 give us maybe your assessment of where President Prime Minister 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:07.800 Netanyahu is in terms of his thinking these days. I 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:10.760 guess we started this war almost a year ago with 0:05:10.800 --> 0:05:13.640 the attacks on Israel, and I guess at that point 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:18.760 Yah said, Hey, our goal is to incapacitate Hamas and 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:23.039 get our hostages back. That scope seems to have broadened 0:05:23.120 --> 0:05:27.080 dramatically now to include, you know, maybe some war aims 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:30.839 in Lebanon, to deal with Iran more broadly. Where is 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:31.240 he now? 0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:36.440 Look, I think you know, don't never write this guy off. 0:05:36.560 --> 0:05:39.680 I mean, it was unimaginable that a prime Minister or 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:42.640 presider or the single body of stayed for Jews since 0:05:42.680 --> 0:05:46.760 the liberation of the Nazi death camps, the worst intelligence 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:49.200 failure in the history of State of Israel, antrial for 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:51.600 brid re fraud and breach of trust in. 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:55.240 A Jerusalem dis re court now four years running, would. 0:05:57.040 --> 0:06:02.560 Have gotten himself into a situation where his credibility and 0:06:02.600 --> 0:06:04.440 even some of the numbers. 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:07.360 In the latest Israeli polls have gone. 0:06:07.160 --> 0:06:11.920 Up, not surprisingly because of the last several weeks and 0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:15.839 what I think we're on the cuspbol with respect to 0:06:16.160 --> 0:06:19.600 an Israeli strike against Iran. So he still does if 0:06:19.600 --> 0:06:22.200 elected were held today, he still doesn't have enough seats 0:06:22.240 --> 0:06:23.560 to put together a coalition. 0:06:23.680 --> 0:06:26.200 But there's no effective opposition. 0:06:26.640 --> 0:06:29.160 And the fact is the kanesstants out of resist until 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:31.520 the end of October. Benjamin Nataniell will will make an 0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:34.800 assessment on November five with the next President of the 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:38.400 United States is and he'll adjust his tactics. Importingly, I 0:06:38.480 --> 0:06:41.839 don't see new elections in Israel at the earliest, and 0:06:41.880 --> 0:06:44.719 the government could go to term twenty twenty six. I 0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:48.200 don't see new elections in Israel until sometime in twenty 0:06:48.240 --> 0:06:48.800 twenty five. 0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:53.120 Well what's the response from the rest of the Mid 0:06:53.120 --> 0:06:54.720 East to Saudi Arabia et cetera. 0:06:56.400 --> 0:06:59.200 Well, there's the public and the private response, right, I mean, 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:04.240 nobody is going to miss other than Hezbollah. Certainly, among 0:07:04.680 --> 0:07:07.880 the Sunnis in the region, no one's going to miss 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:13.240 Ausun Ocella, certainly, the Saudis won't uh and Sunnis in 0:07:13.360 --> 0:07:22.960 Syria that have prosecuted a terrible war against Sunni populations 0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:27.280 isn't going to miss Nuzula either, So and that goes 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:30.280 by the way, also for Jakna Sinoir, the pre eminent 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:35.400 Palestinian leader who's hiding in a bunker somewhere meters below ground, 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:42.320 probably surrounded by hostages the low Raunis. I think the 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:45.680 Arab States really understand what they didn't in the way 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:49.240 to October seventh, when Israeli military capacities seemed to be 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:54.000 not just diluted, but somehow defeated. The last several weeks, 0:07:54.040 --> 0:07:59.720 the operational effectiveness, the tactical ingenuity of the Israelis has restored. 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:05.280 I think their street cred comes to the to the 0:08:05.280 --> 0:08:08.400 air world. That's particularly true for the Bobrani societies and 0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:13.200 the Amorates will all have above ground and below ground 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:17.320 security and intelligence relationships. 0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:21.040 With Israel. But again it's the Middle East. Nobody ever 0:08:21.080 --> 0:08:21.920 lost money. 0:08:21.920 --> 0:08:26.480 Against the peace and stability, and I think that we 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:30.880 have to still be three sober here. Yeah, yes, can 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:37.440 the can what the Israelis have done be translated somehow 0:08:38.440 --> 0:08:43.679 into political arrangements lead to greater prosperity instability. 0:08:43.720 --> 0:08:45.520 That's the core question, and. 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:47.800 You know it's one of the many questions I just 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:48.839 don't have an answer to you. 0:08:48.960 --> 0:08:50.520 All right, Aaron, thank you so much for joining us. 0:08:50.559 --> 0:08:53.240 We really appreciate getting some of your time to share 0:08:53.240 --> 0:08:56.640 in your expertise. Aaron David Miller. He's a senior fellow 0:08:56.760 --> 0:09:00.280 at the Carnegian Down for International Piece, has decades of 0:09:00.360 --> 0:09:03.480 experience in that part of the world. You appreciate getting 0:09:03.520 --> 0:09:04.280 some of his time. 0:09:05.720 --> 0:09:09.640 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:13.200 weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 0:09:13.240 --> 0:09:16.040 Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:19.240 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 0:09:19.600 --> 0:09:22.640 Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:26.520 Alex deeal here alongside Paul Sweeni and John Tucker. This 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:29.760 is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We are broadcasting to live for 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:33.720 Interactive Brokers Studio right here in Midtown Manhattan. So last night, 0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:37.960 Democratic Governor Tim Watson Republican Senator JD Vans sparred during 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:41.000 the CBS News vice presidential debate in New York that 0:09:41.040 --> 0:09:44.880 featured fireworks over abortion rights, the economy, and foreign policy, 0:09:45.160 --> 0:09:47.720 in part in an appeal to Midwestern voters. 0:09:48.520 --> 0:09:51.320 One thing that Joe Biden did is he continued some 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:54.800 of the Trump tariffs that protected American manufacturing jobs. It's 0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:57.559 the one issue where Kamala Harris has run away from 0:09:57.679 --> 0:09:58.600 Joe Biden's record. 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:01.679 Well, Kamala Harris is Day one was Donald Trump's failure 0:10:01.720 --> 0:10:03.880 on COVID that led to the collapse for our economies. 0:10:03.880 --> 0:10:06.560 If Kamala Harris has such great plans for how to 0:10:06.600 --> 0:10:10.200 address middle class problems, then she ought to do them. Now, 0:10:10.320 --> 0:10:11.520 how is it fair. 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:14.120 That you're paying your taxes every year and Donald Trump 0:10:14.120 --> 0:10:17.080 hasn't paid any federal text in the last fifteen years. 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:20.240 Well, joining us now is Henry Natrez, Managing partner and 0:10:20.280 --> 0:10:24.040 director of Economic Policy at Beta Partners. Henrietta, did we 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:25.840 learn anything last night. 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:32.320 Well, we learned that maybe both parties candidates have the 0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:36.640 potential to improve their standing with the American voter. The 0:10:36.840 --> 0:10:39.600 surprise to me was that flash poles that came out 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:43.520 right after the debate showed that viewers considered the two 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:47.160 men effectively tied in the race. I thought personally that 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:51.080 Vance had exceeded Waltz, but that's not what we saw 0:10:51.160 --> 0:10:55.320 in the flash polls. And most importantly, amongst unaffiliated voters, 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:57.880 not Democrats, not Republicans, but sort of third party voters, 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:00.839 the majority of them thought that Waltz in a better job. 0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:02.560 And you have to think of that as probably some 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:04.839 of the last moments of the campaign, you know, the 0:11:04.920 --> 0:11:07.400 sort of the debate, the last sort of fifteen minutes 0:11:07.400 --> 0:11:10.640 when they talked about January sixth again. But in general, 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:15.000 net net, both candidates standing improved materially with voters. I 0:11:15.040 --> 0:11:17.800 want to say that jd. Vance went from a negative 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:20.640 twenty two percent, a negative thirteen percent rating to a 0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:24.840 negative two percent rating, and Tim Walls also improved from 0:11:24.880 --> 0:11:28.040 his plus three favorability rating to something like plus thirty 0:11:28.040 --> 0:11:30.360 four after last night's debate. So both men did what 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:33.360 they wanted to do, introduce themselves to the American public, 0:11:33.400 --> 0:11:34.880 and the American public like what they saw. 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:37.280 Henrietta, can you give us a sense, I'm trying to 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:40.319 get a handle on this particular number, how many independent 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:44.559 voters are each candidate trying to get at each campaign, Trenting, 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:46.920 Do we have a sense of how many they are? 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:48.040 Well? 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:50.360 The independent voter base is actually a huge chunk of 0:11:50.400 --> 0:11:50.720 the pie. 0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:54.280 As America has gotten polarized and voters have, you know, 0:11:54.320 --> 0:11:56.200 flocked to the far left of the far right within 0:11:56.240 --> 0:11:59.439 their parties, a big chunk of America now qualifies themselves 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:03.439 as independ voters. That's different than undecided. Undecided is now 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:05.840 like four percent seven percent of the electorate. 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:08.640 Most people have picked a horse and they're moving forward. 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:12.240 Unfortunately, most likely the people who are undecided did not 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:14.960 even watch last night's debate, So they're going to be 0:12:15.000 --> 0:12:19.680 getting their internals from what they see on the internet today, 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:21.880 and it's probably not going to move the needle too much. 0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:23.840 If you have to think about the presidential debate not 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:26.200 moving the needle a whole lot, you know, a couple 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:28.800 points to Kamala Harris, it's very unlikely to mean that 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:30.760 the vice presidential debate last night is going to really 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:32.240 change things for either ticket. 0:12:32.480 --> 0:12:35.200 So it's October second, if I'm not mistaken, and typically 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:37.320 we talked about in an October surprise when it comes 0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:40.880 to the election. Is the Iran Israel conflict right now 0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:42.160 that October surprise? 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:44.360 You know, I want to say yes. 0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:47.280 Obviously, the escalation that we're looking at right now and 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:50.680 potential for the Middle East disruption is explosive to the 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:54.600 point where we haven't seen it in decades and you know, 0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:58.720 rapidly escalating and just waiting for Israel's response now. But 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:01.600 the you know, the question last night was the first 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:03.680 one on the gate about how to respond to Iran. 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:07.760 And I think what was interesting is that the electorate 0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:10.640 as a whole in America doesn't consider this a near 0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:13.440 term issue or even something that ranks in the top 0:13:13.520 --> 0:13:15.280 five areas that they care about. 0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:18.000 It's you know, the economy followed by some. 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:21.559 Combination of abortion and immigration and then everything else sort 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:23.800 of way underneath that. Foreign policy is just not a 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:25.600 forte of American voters. 0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:31.720 Henrietta Kamala Harris has been out fundraising former President Trump 0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:34.120 and in past elections like goes that would be really 0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:36.560 big news. Is that big news this time around? 0:13:37.559 --> 0:13:39.679 I think it is. And I want to tie in 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:41.120 a couple of different components here. 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:43.839 You know, we have Hurricane Heleen that went straight through 0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:48.319 Trump country in the Panhandle, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina 0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:50.360 with the exception of Ashville, and like a couple of 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:55.719 blue pockets. But the turnout campaign, not just on the 0:13:55.840 --> 0:13:58.920 day of the election, but right now as early voting 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:02.079 has started, is something that all this fundraising is able 0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:05.560 to actually do. Kamala Harris's campaign has you know, a 0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:08.760 dozen field offices in certain states, that are going to 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:12.240 be pivotal to this election, where Trump has almost none. 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:16.000 There are campaign volunteers that are getting paid twenty dollars 0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:18.199 an hour to go out into the field and make 0:14:18.240 --> 0:14:20.240 sure that they're knocking on doors and getting people to 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:21.520 the polls, getting their. 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:22.000 Mail in ballots. 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:24.320 Said, that's the kind of money that's being spent right now, 0:14:24.440 --> 0:14:27.000 and you're seeing it trickle down into the state races, 0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:30.360 which are now expanding the Democratic map into places they 0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:34.040 have no business being, you know, Texas, Florida, Nebraska, and 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:36.760 then also on the House side with an expansion of 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:39.600 the race sort of exponentially in the last couple of weeks. 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:42.480 And that's because of the massive fundraising campaign that the 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:45.000 Harris campaign has generated. I think I could think it's 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:47.640 if my Memory Service two hundred and eighty seven million 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:49.720 in August to Trump's eighty four million. 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:51.520 So they're tripling their numbers. 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:55.040 Twenty bucks an hour for volunteer. That's that's pretty solid, 0:14:55.160 --> 0:14:56.800 like that something that. 0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:58.120 Doesn't make them a volunteers. 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:00.920 It is true that feels odd, but you know, maybe 0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:04.560 it's for profit volunteering. Henrietta. When we take a look 0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:07.720 at the broader race in terms of Congress, Senate, and 0:15:08.720 --> 0:15:11.720 the House. Where do we stand? What are some races 0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:12.440 that you're watching? 0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:15.920 Well, I mean, my favorite part of this election is 0:15:15.920 --> 0:15:18.400 that we have the benefit of every single swing state 0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:21.120 also having a Senate race happening. I want to lay 0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:23.760 out two that I think are really important today and 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:25.600 maybe the VP debate can move the needle. 0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:27.320 In Arizona and Nevada. 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.800 You see Kamala Harris's strength coming from the fact that 0:15:30.880 --> 0:15:35.600 she's pulling thirteen to fifteen percent of the Republican voter base. 0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:39.400 So in Arizona, fifteen percent of voters that identify as 0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:42.480 Republicans are saying, you know what, not today, not for Trump, 0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:45.440 not for Carrie Lake, who is the Republican Senate candidate there. 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:48.200 They're going for Galleo and they're going for Kamala Harris. 0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:50.640 And that's why she is even playing ball in a 0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:53.160 state like Arizona that used to be deep red. And 0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:56.280 that's translating just next door to Nevada, where you're seeing 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.920 strength for Kamala Harris amongst Republican voters, and that's translating 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:02.920 down ballot to Jackie Rosen in that Senate seat, who's 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:05.480 ahead by ten in the latest polls on average, if 0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:08.840 I'm not mistaken something like that. So the Senate candidates 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:11.400 down ballot for the Democratic Party are pulling so far 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:15.040 ahead of Kamala Harris, so far ahead of their Republican challengers, 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:17.160 and not all of them are incumbents, you know, whether 0:16:17.200 --> 0:16:20.480 that's in Michigan or other states. There are Democratic Senate 0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:23.320 races being held in all these pivotal states that Kamala 0:16:23.400 --> 0:16:25.720 Harris must win and I think get four tens either 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:29.200 a massive split election or additional votes that Kamala Harris 0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:30.840 can get in the final days of the campaign. 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:34.000 All right, Henrietta, thanks so much. We really appreciate it. 0:16:34.000 --> 0:16:37.680 Henrita trans managing partner and director of Economic Policy at 0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:41.320 Vita Partners joining us there. You early vootered already, didn't you? 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:41.560 I did? 0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:44.000 I just mad, I think yesterday early and often. I'm 0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:46.640 a big believer in that. And I'm also happy that 0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:48.720 we are not I'm not in a swing state, John, 0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:49.600 We're not in a swing state? 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:51.840 Are we in New Jersey? Well, don't say your vote 0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:56.520 doesn't every single vote Council's inphasized. So I dropped it 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:58.040 early on even though we're in New Jersey. 0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:00.560 So, but in New Jersey, we're not as state, so 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:03.800 we're not getting crushed by the political ads yet. But 0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:06.640 even the national buys are noticeable, you know. But I mean, 0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:09.400 you get in a swing state, every local buy is 0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:11.119 on every station. 0:17:10.880 --> 0:17:11.159 You can go. 0:17:11.680 --> 0:17:13.320 I can't imagine. I mean, I've always lived in New York, 0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:15.520 so I literally can't imagine. 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:19.760 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:17:19.840 --> 0:17:22.520 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:25.560 broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:29.960 wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:33.120 Looking at the markets here, I mean again you could say, 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:36.760 given the geopolitical tensions, maybe this market's behaving fairly well, 0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:38.439 you know, over the past a couple of days. As 0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:39.919 John has just mentioned, we do have a little bit 0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:41.840 of a sell off here, off just on about two 0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:44.720 ten percent on the SMP five earner. But the question 0:17:44.800 --> 0:17:46.359 is kind of, how do you thinking a little bit 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:48.840 more long term as you try to think about the geopolitics, 0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:52.200 maybe even the strike of the dock workers in the 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:54.760 economic impact that could have, how does that impact intermediate 0:17:54.800 --> 0:17:56.920 to longer term views. Let's check them with somebody who 0:17:56.920 --> 0:18:00.000 does this stuff for a living. Mary and Bartel's chief investments. 0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:04.159 It just for Sanctuary Wealth. Marion with a name like 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:08.240 Sanctuary Wealth. I'm thinking you guys think long term, maybe 0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:12.840 relatively low levels of risk. What's your investment view of 0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:14.840 markets these days? 0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:19.199 Oh, I can't get more bullish. And I understand that 0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:23.479 there's a lot of geopolitical risks. We have a port strike, 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:28.119 we have an unpresidented presidential election. But what I've learned 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:32.560 in my forty years is that liquidity trumps everything, and 0:18:32.840 --> 0:18:36.119 the Federal Reserve is on an aggressive path in my 0:18:36.320 --> 0:18:41.920 view of now easing monetary policy at a time when 0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:45.240 our economy is growing, We're growing at least about two percent. 0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:49.800 I would argue, we're still at full employment, and we 0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:53.000 still have corporate profits growth. We're not even a recession 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:57.560 for corporate profits. That this is going to ignite our economy, 0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:03.360 maintain in employment. And I'm pretty bullish. 0:19:03.520 --> 0:19:03.680 Now. 0:19:03.720 --> 0:19:05.639 That's not to say that the markets can't be a 0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:09.639 little tricky or spooky in the month of October. But 0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:12.120 what the month of October has that most people don't 0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:15.679 talk about is we make important market bottoms that allow 0:19:15.760 --> 0:19:18.119 the market to have its strong year end rally. 0:19:19.040 --> 0:19:21.879 Where do you think the best opportunities are now? I 0:19:21.880 --> 0:19:24.439 mean we've had some rotation in this marketplace. It's no 0:19:24.480 --> 0:19:26.800 longer the big tech stocks that are leading us higher. 0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:30.440 We've had some rotation some other sectors. How are you positioned? 0:19:31.440 --> 0:19:33.840 So that's really a bullish thing that we have the 0:19:33.880 --> 0:19:37.480 breath of the market expanding. So when we recently had 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:40.480 new record highs in the market, breath hit a new high, 0:19:40.720 --> 0:19:43.760 we got volume expanding. That tells us we're in a 0:19:43.960 --> 0:19:48.040 very strong market or very strong tape. I haven't given 0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:50.560 up on tech. I think tech is in a consolidation. 0:19:50.920 --> 0:19:54.760 It's have an extraordinary move, but it's allowed other pockets 0:19:54.760 --> 0:19:57.440 of the markets to move. Can you believe that utilities 0:19:57.480 --> 0:20:00.560 could rally twenty percent this year? As the market is 0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:04.760 expecting rates to come down, they're seeking out yield within 0:20:04.800 --> 0:20:08.560 the equity market, You've seen moves in reads and it 0:20:08.640 --> 0:20:12.040 might be possible next year that the phrase or word 0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:15.879 tina comes back. There is no other alternative as the 0:20:15.920 --> 0:20:19.400 market continues to seek out yield as the baby boomers 0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:20.639 move into retirement. 0:20:21.840 --> 0:20:24.040 So I mean we've seen some volatility. I mean we 0:20:24.080 --> 0:20:26.439 have the VIX now just still below twenty. But it 0:20:26.480 --> 0:20:30.040 feels like there's been some volatility in these markets. When 0:20:30.080 --> 0:20:32.320 you talk to a lot of pros out there, how 0:20:32.320 --> 0:20:35.600 do you deal with that? Are there sectors maybe protect 0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:38.080 you from that, or are there other ways to look 0:20:38.080 --> 0:20:40.119 at maybe getting a little bit of stability in a portfolio. 0:20:41.080 --> 0:20:41.960 So, I mean, the. 0:20:41.920 --> 0:20:44.439 True way to get stability in a portfolio, if you 0:20:44.480 --> 0:20:47.200 really want to be very defensive, is to own cash. 0:20:47.480 --> 0:20:50.840 And the market's already positioned there. We have six six 0:20:50.880 --> 0:20:56.280 point four trillion dollars in money market funds. Many clients 0:20:56.280 --> 0:20:58.960 have tried to lock in that five five and a 0:20:59.000 --> 0:21:03.400 half percent. I would argue that the market is extremely defensive, 0:21:03.880 --> 0:21:06.600 but you know, pockets of utilities tend to be very 0:21:06.640 --> 0:21:11.320 defensive also within the marketplace. Enough bright spot is we 0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:14.960 have gold that's recently been hitting record all time highs, 0:21:15.240 --> 0:21:17.239 So you know you can put a little bit of 0:21:17.320 --> 0:21:20.879 gold in the portfolio. Because I do think over time 0:21:21.080 --> 0:21:24.639 we are more in an inflationary environment. Although we're seeing 0:21:24.680 --> 0:21:27.880