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Speaker 3: Welcome in What's Right? Nick Right? Episode one oh two
Speaker 3: our week. My god, is this week fourteen our Week
Speaker 3: fourteen gambling show. Week thirteen gambling Show. I'm all thrown
Speaker 3: off because we haven't been on TV the last few
Speaker 3: days because of the awesome World Cup. I hope you
Speaker 3: guys saw the What's Right Show yesterday where we did
Speaker 3: a deep dive into the World Cup and I discussed
Speaker 3: the most irritating soccer commentary that exists that's available on
Speaker 3: our YouTube page and on our podcast feeds. However, we're
Speaker 3: gonna get into this week back to the same regular schedule.
Speaker 3: Five picks. We do our picks, we do our stayaways,
Speaker 3: our be carefuls at our perfectly priced Last week we
Speaker 3: did six picks, and thank god we did because that
Speaker 3: added sixth pick is what saved us from having a
Speaker 3: losing week. Who was a very odd a weekend of gambling,
Speaker 3: which was we went two and oh on Thursday, one
Speaker 3: and oh on Monday with our bonus pick, and zero
Speaker 3: and three on Sunday afternoons. So let's go through it.
Speaker 3: Detroit plus ten versus Buffalo obviously the right side. They
Speaker 3: could have won out right. Giants plus nine and a
Speaker 3: half against Dallas got away with one there the late
Speaker 3: cover touchdown, Thank you Giants. Tennessee plus two and a
Speaker 3: half against Cincinnati didn't work out. His Cincinnati was better.
Speaker 3: I liked the Zach Taylor matchup his tennis Cincinnati, the
Speaker 3: Zach Taylor versus Mike Brabil match, if I should say,
Speaker 3: but Cincinnati did a wonderful job of shutting down Derrick
Speaker 3: Henry except for the screen pass. Seattle minus three and
Speaker 3: a half against Vegas went to overtime. Seattle had plenty
Speaker 3: of opportunities. Good for Vegas. We were on the wrong
Speaker 3: side of it. Another right move down the tubes, and
Speaker 3: that one was a torturous bet to lose. Had no
Speaker 3: reason to lose. Should have at least pushed the fact
Speaker 3: that Tampa couldn't get couldn't that we talked about it
Speaker 3: on Monday. The clock management at the end of the game,
Speaker 3: the inability to move the ball in overtime was disastrous.
Speaker 3: And then Pittsburgh plus two and a half against the
Speaker 3: Fight and Jeff Saturdays. So last week three and three,
Speaker 3: so we remained three games under five hundred. Again not
Speaker 3: the exact place we want to be in, but still
Speaker 3: alive for a great season, if a long season. These days.
Speaker 3: This week we have we thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, sixteen, seventeen,
Speaker 3: and week eighteen. We have almost a third of the season.
Speaker 3: In fact, we have exactly a third of the season remaining.
Speaker 3: So let's just go four and one over the next
Speaker 3: few weeks and we'll be good to go. We will
Speaker 3: start this week with Atlanta plus one against Pittsburgh. Okay,
Speaker 3: Atlanta has not looked good lately. I'm not going to
Speaker 3: give a deep analysis of the game. This one is
Speaker 3: very very simple. Pittsburgh is coming off a nationally televised
Speaker 3: victory and the game before that, while the defense didn't
Speaker 3: play well, the offense did. I think right now, they're
Speaker 3: a little overvalued. Atlanta at home in Atlanta has to
Speaker 3: feel like even though they just put Kyle Pitts on,
Speaker 3: I are we are still alive. And because they are
Speaker 3: still alive, because the Bucks can't take control of anything.
Speaker 3: And my analysis on this, even though it's only one point,
Speaker 3: is very simple. Kenny Pickett should not be a road
Speaker 3: favorite over anybody. I think Atlanta wins this game. Pittsburgh
Speaker 3: got a nice win for them. They saw some nice
Speaker 3: things from Kenny Pickett the last few weeks at I
Speaker 3: thought when this game I thought it would be Atlanta
Speaker 3: by two and a half. It's Pittsburgh by one. I
Speaker 3: like Atlanta getting the one point. We'll move on to
Speaker 3: the next game. These first two games, by the way,
Speaker 3: are ugly games, not incredibly interesting. We'll do them quickly.
Speaker 3: We like the value on them. The Giants plus two
Speaker 3: and a half against Washington Again, are the Giants headed
Speaker 3: in the wrong direction? Obviously? Does Washington look like they
Speaker 3: could end up stealing their playoff spot?
Speaker 4: Yes?
Speaker 3: However, the Giants at home getting almost a field goal
Speaker 3: against Taylor Heineke, who, while has the Washington's been winning,
Speaker 3: Heineke has not played exceptionally well. The Giants desperate with
Speaker 3: some extra rest because of the Thanksgiving game, all of
Speaker 3: those reasons. I like the Giants this weekend to win,
Speaker 3: to kind of stabilize their season a bit. Now, will
Speaker 3: they make the playoffs? Maybe not right now Giants, Washington,
Speaker 3: Seattle two of them are going to make the playoffs.
Speaker 3: One of them is not. So for the Giants when
Speaker 3: they have to go to Washington in a couple weeks.
Speaker 3: And I know Washingtons getting Chase Young back, this is
Speaker 3: as close to him must win as you're gonna have
Speaker 3: for a team. I like the Giants getting points at
Speaker 3: home that Giants defense, and I like Saquam's chances of
Speaker 3: bouncing out of his little mini slump this weekend, Giants
Speaker 3: getting nearly a field goal at home. If you're thinking
Speaker 3: about betting this one, I would wait a bit because
Speaker 3: if it goes down to Giants plus two, you're not
Speaker 3: losing much value at all, And I would hold on
Speaker 3: to the hope that maybe gets up to Giants plus three.
Speaker 3: But I like the Giants and Atlanta to both win
Speaker 3: outright as slight home dogs. Now we get to much
Speaker 3: more interesting games. The Chargers minus a point and a
Speaker 3: half at the Raiders. The Raiders needed overtime and the
Speaker 3: game of Josh Jacob's life last week to beat Seattle.
Speaker 3: The Chargers are in a spot where they are enough
Speaker 3: and they will be getting healthier as the year goes
Speaker 3: on to not only be a playoff team, but to
Speaker 3: be a potentially dangerous playoff team. But the only way
Speaker 3: that can happen is if they they got to start
Speaker 3: winning more games. Because the Jets stabilize themselves a bit,
Speaker 3: it would appear by putting in Mike White. The Patriots
Speaker 3: have a brutal schedule moving forward. But if you think
Speaker 3: the Patriots are going to be able to split with
Speaker 3: the Bills, and by the way, Patriots Bills is tonight,
Speaker 3: you guys will when you guys hear it, it will
Speaker 3: have been last night. So we don't pick the Thursday
Speaker 3: night games anymore. If I were picking a side in that,
Speaker 3: I would like the Patriots plus the points, but I'm
Speaker 3: not betting that game either way. The Chargers, this is
Speaker 3: for if they are going to sneak their way into
Speaker 3: the wild card and be a dangerous wild card team,
Speaker 3: they have to build on the momentum of their win
Speaker 3: against the Cardinals last week. It's the they've got to
Speaker 3: because they've got this week. They have the Raiders, and
Speaker 3: then they have two tough games in a row. Granted
Speaker 3: they're at home, but they have no home field. They're
Speaker 3: home for Miami than home for the Titans. So let's
Speaker 3: just assume the Chargers lose both of those games, that
Speaker 3: all of a sudden would put them at seven losses.
Speaker 3: So they have to win all of their other games
Speaker 3: to get to the ten wins it's gonna take to
Speaker 3: make the postseason. They have the Raiders, then Dolphins, Titans,
Speaker 3: then Colts, Rams Broncos. Colts Rams Broncos about as nice
Speaker 3: of a finishing three games as you can have. They
Speaker 3: need to make it so they're alive going into those
Speaker 3: final three. That means they win in Vegas. I like
Speaker 3: the Chargers' ability to move the football on a Raiders
Speaker 3: team that is troubled, that has had trouble last week,
Speaker 3: and I was saying to get into the passer all year.
Speaker 3: I'm only laying a point and a half. I don't
Speaker 3: mind doing that, even though they're on the road. Chargers
Speaker 3: minus one and a half.
Speaker 5: So you know last week you had to pick six
Speaker 5: teams to save you from a losing week. Yeah, so
Speaker 5: I'm gonna give you a piece of advice here. Okay,
Speaker 5: you could avoid betting on the two most unpredictable teams
Speaker 5: in the league.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, listen, I could. But I also think that
Speaker 3: the Raiders should. The Raiders have shown us nothing that
Speaker 3: they should be that. How do I put this? The
Speaker 3: Raiders are getting less than a field goal. I know
Speaker 3: they're at home against what I consider a good team,
Speaker 3: and I understand they just beat the Seahawks in overtime,
Speaker 3: but prior to that, their only victories this year had
Speaker 3: come against the Texans and the Broncos. So why do
Speaker 3: I think the Raiders are going to all all of
Speaker 3: a sudden string together back after winning. By the way,
Speaker 3: they've already went back to back string together three straight wins.
Speaker 3: I think Josh McDaniel is one of the worst coaches
Speaker 3: in the league. I think the Chargers are desperate, and
Speaker 3: the Chargers, to me, are not that unpredictable. They're just
Speaker 3: incredibly banged up. I think Justin Herbert has a big game.
Speaker 4: I like the Chargers have their last two wins come
Speaker 4: from overtime.
Speaker 3: Yeah, both of them. Both of them walk off overtime touchdowns.
Speaker 3: The DeVante Adams a touchdown against russ and the Broncos
Speaker 3: twenty two to sixteen, and then the eighty five yard
Speaker 3: Josh Jacobs run all right next, one of my favorite
Speaker 3: bets of the year. I'm gonna be in Vegas for
Speaker 3: this game.
Speaker 4: We're gonna be.
Speaker 3: Watching the World Cup in the morning and then getting
Speaker 3: ready for one of the games of the year in
Speaker 3: the NFL. You guys know, I have not included the
Speaker 3: Chiefs and Knicks picks hardly at all this year. Kansas
Speaker 3: City minus less than a field goal minus two against Cincinnati.
Speaker 3: So if the Chiefs win this game, they they don't
Speaker 3: lock up the one seed because Buffalo and Miami are
Speaker 3: right there, but they already have the tiebreaker with Tennessee,
Speaker 3: who is the AFC South Divisional leader. They currently they
Speaker 3: would get the tiebreaker with Cincinnati, who is the tied
Speaker 3: for the lead in the AFC North. They'd still have
Speaker 3: to end Cincinnati be down to five losses, they would
Speaker 3: eliminate Cincinnati from there. Also, if the Chiefs win this game,
Speaker 3: the rest of this is their last truly difficult game
Speaker 3: on their schedule. The rest of the way for the
Speaker 3: Chiefs after this game Broncos Texans home for the Seahawks
Speaker 3: Broncos Raiders. If they win this game, their absolute floor
Speaker 3: is fourteen and three, which would mean Buffalo or Miami
Speaker 3: would play each other by the way, one of them
Speaker 3: would have to go undefeated the rest of the way.
Speaker 3: For the Chiefs not to get the one seed, Baltimore
Speaker 3: would be out of it. Because the Chiefs are if
Speaker 3: they win this game, they are not losing two of
Speaker 3: the following two of Broncos Texans, Seahawks Broncos Raiders flatly
Speaker 3: not happening. Add to it. Patrick Mahomes has never lost
Speaker 3: three in a row to a team. It's incredibly rare.
Speaker 3: He's ever lost two in a row to a team.
Speaker 3: In fact, I think the only team to beat him
Speaker 3: too in a row might be the Patriots when they
Speaker 3: had Brady. One of them was an overtime AFC Championship game.
Speaker 3: I'm not certain on that. I'm gonna have to check that.
Speaker 3: The single the only true dark moment of Mahomes' career
Speaker 3: was the second half of the AFC Championship game last
Speaker 3: year against this very team. This is everyone has wanted
Speaker 3: to make the Bills the Chiefs rival, and I get
Speaker 3: that because they've played great games, but the Bills have
Speaker 3: played them in the playoffs and lost each time. If
Speaker 3: the Bengals were to win this game, Joe Burrow would
Speaker 3: be three and zero in his career against Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 3: There is a lot on the line here. I don't
Speaker 3: want to say legacy wise, but as far as a
Speaker 3: and they could play again in the playoffs, Like, wait,
Speaker 3: do we have everyone in the conference's number except for Cincinnati?
Speaker 3: I think now, Cincinnati, what they did defensively against Derrick
Speaker 3: Henry was incredibly impressive. The Chiefs are just not going
Speaker 3: to run the ball. The Bengals are without Chadobia Wuzia,
Speaker 3: who's been on IR for a while, with their best corner.
Speaker 1: The Chiefs.
Speaker 3: I'm laying less than a field goal. And here's the
Speaker 3: other thing. Kansas City laying less than a field goal
Speaker 3: is a must bet against anybody. I love the Chiefs
Speaker 3: minus the two. It might be my favorite bet of
Speaker 3: the year.
Speaker 5: I think you should be a little bit of a
Speaker 5: little nervous given these following numbers. Okay, Kansas City is
Speaker 5: one and seven against the spread this year after wins. Okay,
Speaker 5: and the last time they were on a five game
Speaker 5: wins winning streak, they lost to Cincinnati on the road.
Speaker 3: Listen, it's hard to go on long winning streaks in
Speaker 3: this league. The one in seven against the spread after
Speaker 3: wins is not as noteworthy to me. However, in this regard,
Speaker 3: it's usually because they're big favorites. It's usually because that
Speaker 3: point spread has been inflated enough to cover this. They
Speaker 3: just need to win the game. I mean, I understand
Speaker 3: they could they push with a two point win and
Speaker 3: they lose against the spread with a one point win.
Speaker 3: I like the Chiefs here. I like the Chiefs making
Speaker 3: a statement, having a statement game, and the Chiefs not
Speaker 3: getting because both the games against Cincinnati last year, the
Speaker 3: Chiefs annihilated them in the first half and then we're
Speaker 3: nowhere to be seen in the second half. And so
Speaker 3: all those reasons I love the Chiefs minus two here,
Speaker 3: and then lastly, this one, I'll be very quick on it.
Speaker 3: It's just too many points. The Colts plus eleven and
Speaker 3: a half at Dallas. Do I like Jeff Saturday?
Speaker 4: No?
Speaker 3: Does it terror by me that Matt Ryan is gonna
Speaker 3: get sacked eight times in this game, have three fumbles, Yeah,
Speaker 3: against that Cowboys pass rush. The Cowboys are the team
Speaker 3: on the extra rest. The extra extra rest, by the way,
Speaker 3: because the Cowboys played on Thanksgiving, the Colts played on
Speaker 3: Monday night. All of those things are in the favor
Speaker 3: of the Dallas Cowboys. Eleven and a half is too
Speaker 3: many points. There's just so many results here where the
Speaker 3: Cowboys dominate this game. And the Colts still cover. Twenty
Speaker 3: seven to seventeen, that's a Colts cover. Twenty eight to seventeen,
Speaker 3: that's a Colts cover. Thirty one to twenty that's a
Speaker 3: Colts cover. There's eleven and a half points the Cowboys.
Speaker 3: The Cults are not a horrible team. They have some
Speaker 3: horrible games, but when Matt Ryan has played this year,
Speaker 3: the Colts have been around five hundred, and they have
Speaker 3: some games where they look totally incompetent. However, Dallas's one
Speaker 3: weakness is it's one glaring weakness. Is it run defense.
Speaker 3: Now they shored that up a bit on Thanksgiving. I
Speaker 3: don't know if that means they fixed it. The Colts
Speaker 3: will run the football, The Colts will try to make
Speaker 3: this a fast game. It's too many points. The Colts
Speaker 3: plus eleven and a half is a bet. It's just
Speaker 3: too many points. I like that one a lot. That also,
Speaker 3: by the way, it is a sign of how powerful
Speaker 3: the Cowboys are from a ratings perspective that NBC could
Speaker 3: have had on Sunday Night Football Dolphins Niners, which might
Speaker 3: be the Super Bowl. The Niners are the second favorites
Speaker 3: in the NFC, the Dolphins are the third favorites in
Speaker 3: the AFC, and instead they kept it Colts Cowboys, even
Speaker 3: though the Colts are terrible and we're on National TV
Speaker 3: last week, because they just know people want to see
Speaker 3: the Dallas Cat Cowboys, so it just that's not a
Speaker 3: gambling note.
Speaker 4: It's like America's team.
Speaker 3: Well, I mean that's what they're called. And I mean
Speaker 3: the Fox did forty million people on Thanksgiving. Forty million
Speaker 3: people watch that football game on Thanksgiving. The Fox has
Speaker 3: the super Bowl this year and they have a real
Speaker 3: shot at what would be the highest rated super Bowl
Speaker 3: in modern times, which would be Cowboys Chiefs. Kayu, you
Speaker 3: have the star power of Mahomes the Cowboys in the
Speaker 3: first super Bowl in the quarter century. Cowboys, anybody would
Speaker 3: be crazy rated Cowboys Chiefs would have to be. I
Speaker 3: would imagine Fox's number one pick if they could pick,
Speaker 3: and that's on the board.
Speaker 5: All right, So you go to I mean, you kind
Speaker 5: of covered the question that I was going to ask.
Speaker 5: It was just regarding Dallas mean on a short week,
Speaker 5: and I mean Dallas mean on a long week and
Speaker 5: Jeff Saturday being on a short one.
Speaker 3: Well, listen, I don't like Jeff Saturdays in game adjustment
Speaker 3: into the clock management stuff for Monday night was a
Speaker 3: total Travis dy pardon me. That's been well documented. But
Speaker 3: I don't expect this game to be one where clock
Speaker 3: management's really a factor. I do expect Dallas first of
Speaker 3: a clock. Management's a factor. They covered the eleven and
Speaker 3: a half, you know what I mean? Like if it's
Speaker 3: close enough to where time out management matters, They've covered
Speaker 3: the eleven and a half, so that doesn't matter. This
Speaker 3: to me is more about can they keep it close
Speaker 3: ish and be alive for a backdoor cover or be
Speaker 3: alive for Dallas to be taking knees up eight or
Speaker 3: ten late? I think so? I like the Colts plus
Speaker 3: eleven and a half. All right, stay aways, be carefuls
Speaker 3: and perfectly priced.
Speaker 1: All that.
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Speaker 3: All right, welcome back in What's Right with Nick? Right,
Speaker 3: we just gave you our five picks of the week
Speaker 3: Atlanta plus one, Giants plus two and a half, Chargers
Speaker 3: minus one and a half, CAC minus two, and Indie
Speaker 3: plus eleven and a half. I said, Kancity minus two
Speaker 3: is my favorite bet, one of my favorite bets of
Speaker 3: the year. Will I make that the right move? I
Speaker 3: might not, because I might feel like there's so much
Speaker 3: bad right move juju that I don't even want to
Speaker 3: deal with it. Can I tell you a sad I
Speaker 3: should have sent this to our producers, A sad DM
Speaker 3: I got from arguably the greatest poker player of all time,
Speaker 3: Texas Dolly. Doyle Brunson sent me this on Monday. I
Speaker 3: followed your pick Sunday and I am still bleeding. I
Speaker 3: hate the red board games, but I think we were
Speaker 3: pretty unlucky. Angry guy emoji. I cost Doyle Brunson probably
Speaker 3: thirty thousand dollars by going oh for three on Sunday.
Speaker 4: And our mailman, what do you mean our mail man?
Speaker 5: I mean he said that when he when he asked
Speaker 5: me to come out for the FedEx Pi kach or whatever,
Speaker 5: he said that the prince that was promised has cost
Speaker 5: him a lot of money this year.
Speaker 3: Listen, I don't take that stuff lightly. I feel badly
Speaker 3: about which is why I spend so much time, and
Speaker 3: which is why it is important to me. Listen, this
Speaker 3: is not me taking a shot, but Bill Simmons does
Speaker 3: these things. He does his weekly pictures called million Dollar Picks,
Speaker 3: and on this year on the million Dollar Picks, he's
Speaker 3: down like four million bucks and it's all like on
Speaker 3: teasers and parlays. And I would say, this is the
Speaker 3: worst year picking games I have had, I think since
Speaker 3: I've been on TV, and I'm three games below five.
Speaker 4: Let's note that it's the only one that's documented.
Speaker 3: No, no, no, not the only one that's documented. Just
Speaker 3: because you weren't there for it doesn't mean I wasn't
Speaker 3: giving the picks on TV and on Twitter on a
Speaker 3: weekly basis. But you mentioned it costs. If you bet
Speaker 3: one hundred dollars on all of our games, okay, you
Speaker 3: would be minus three hundred plus the big you'd be
Speaker 3: minus six hundred and ten dollars. Right now. Over the
Speaker 3: course of the season, you would have won twenty eight
Speaker 3: hundred dollars worth of bets. You would have lost thirty
Speaker 3: four hundred and ten dollars worth of bets. You'd be
Speaker 3: minus six to ten. That's not on. If you're one
Speaker 3: hundred dollars better, that's not great. But over the course
Speaker 3: of twelve weeks you'd be down fifty dollars a week.
Speaker 3: It's manageable, you know what I mean. I haven't cost
Speaker 3: any body their shirt here where and so, and we
Speaker 3: still have a very real chance of finishing above five hundred,
Speaker 3: slightly in the green, which is what we would like
Speaker 3: to We would like to be massively in the green. Sure,
Speaker 3: would we like our picks to be shaping up well
Speaker 3: against the Las Vegas super Contest leaders like they did
Speaker 3: a few years ago. Sure, thus far this year it
Speaker 3: hasn't been that. But you can survive on around five
Speaker 3: hundred and still have had a good football season.
Speaker 4: At least. You've just got to clean it up and.
Speaker 3: Not turn it around exactly exactly. You know what, that's exactly.
Speaker 3: That's a great way to put it. I need to
Speaker 3: clean it up, not a full on turnaround. So now
Speaker 3: it's because we've stayed true to this system. Our picks,
Speaker 3: our stay aways are be carefuls and are perfectly priced.
Speaker 3: Are three stay aways this week Cleveland and Houston, Green
Speaker 3: Bay at Chicago and Jacksonville Detroit. Let's start with Cleveland
Speaker 3: at Houston. This is very simple on why it's a
Speaker 3: stay away. We've actually seen Deshan Watson play football in
Speaker 3: two years, so you might say them, why would I
Speaker 3: not grab Houston at home? Grabbing the points Houston? Brandon Cooks?
Speaker 3: Did you see this quote? Brandon Cooks? It was probably
Speaker 3: the best player on the Texans offense. Was asked after
Speaker 3: the Dolphins game, when did you guys know you were
Speaker 3: out classed? And he said, probably first play of the game.
Speaker 3: We just knew, like they're done. Lovey is not an
Speaker 3: NFL head coaching, Are you supposed to say? No? He
Speaker 3: wanted to be trade. He was very angry they didn't
Speaker 3: trade him at the deadline, very angry they didn't. He
Speaker 3: wanted to go play for a real team. So you
Speaker 3: can't bet on Houston right now. They can't score in
Speaker 3: the first half, they went to they were starting Davis Mills.
Speaker 3: Then they went to what was it, Brandon Allen. I
Speaker 3: don't even know who their quarterback was. This past week
Speaker 3: was terrible. Uh, and Cleveland is so you can't bet
Speaker 3: on Houston, But you to me, it would be insane
Speaker 3: to bet on Deshaun Watson in his first game in
Speaker 3: two years, laying a touchdown. So that is the definition
Speaker 3: of a stay away.
Speaker 4: So wouldn't it make.
Speaker 5: Sense to bet on some first half lines since, like
Speaker 5: Deshaun Watson might be a little rusty.
Speaker 3: But now we're getting what do you think Houston is
Speaker 3: in the first half getting four? So now I'm betting
Speaker 3: on Hueston. Do you know how many points Cleveland needs
Speaker 3: to cover four in the first half? Seven? That's how
Speaker 3: many they need to cover four in the first half,
Speaker 3: like the So no, I'm just to me, that is
Speaker 3: the definition of a stay away. Green Bay at Chicago,
Speaker 3: Chicago getting four and a half as we record this,
Speaker 3: we don't know if Justin Fields is playing, and far
Speaker 3: far Rogers should play. He's banged up, so you have
Speaker 3: injuries to both quarterbacks as we're recording this.
Speaker 5: We must stay away. I like, I'm sorry, go ahead
Speaker 5: tell me. I like Green Bay in Chicago with no
Speaker 5: Justin Fields. I mean the way they got done by
Speaker 5: the Jets last week.
Speaker 3: Oh, I totally agree with you. But it might be
Speaker 3: with Justin Fields, right ye of course. And if it's
Speaker 3: no Justin Fields, that line probably moves to seven.
Speaker 4: Right, So that.
Speaker 3: You know what, it's just right now it's a stay away.
Speaker 3: And then Jacksonville laying one in Detroit?
Speaker 4: Wow? What in the stay away? Not even be careful? Why?
Speaker 4: What's so since them only they've only won run road
Speaker 4: game since December twenty nineteen. Okay, you can't jump on it.
Speaker 3: What do you mean?
Speaker 4: I don't think I've ever seen the Jags in the
Speaker 4: stay away category?
Speaker 3: Is my band over for the Jags?
Speaker 4: I think it's up this week?
Speaker 3: This week I'm allowed to beat on. Yeah, six picks again,
Speaker 3: six picks again? Add the Jags? Are you The Jags
Speaker 3: are not losing. The prince that was promised is not losing.
Speaker 3: They are to Jared Goff in Detroit. You know what
Speaker 3: that means? You know what my big takeaway from the
Speaker 3: ming in Detroit is, you know what Detroit has over
Speaker 3: that stadium a roof. So I'm not gonna have to
Speaker 3: worry about the rain. I'm not gonna have to worry
Speaker 3: about the elements. I'm just gonna get the prince that
Speaker 3: was promised, wheeling and dealing for a Jags team that
Speaker 3: I told you all they have to do is win
Speaker 3: out and they make the playoffs. Addam to the list,
Speaker 3: we only have two stayaways Chicago, Green Bay and Cleveland Houston.
Speaker 3: What was I thinking with my band lifted and not
Speaker 3: betting the frisky Jags after Trevor Lawrence just diced up
Speaker 3: the Baltimore Ravens.
Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence has never lost his I mean, has never
Speaker 4: won as a favorite by the way.
Speaker 3: Okay, that's a BS stat because he's probably only only
Speaker 3: been a favorite like three times in his career. He's
Speaker 3: probably like zero to three as a favorite. One point
Speaker 3: is not even really a favorite.
Speaker 4: What The Jags also have nineteen straight losses to the NFC.
Speaker 3: Again, that is a BS stat because so.
Speaker 4: He wasn't playing for eighteen games.
Speaker 3: Well not for eighteen, but they played the NFC five
Speaker 3: times last year and what a couple times this year?
Speaker 3: So Trevor Lawrence is I don't care about any of them?
Speaker 4: Seven Yeah, but again, what did.
Speaker 3: We tell you guys last week about on Monday about
Speaker 3: Trevor that his first year didn't count exactly right? Throw
Speaker 3: all those records out, doesn't matter. Jaggs minus one, Adam
Speaker 3: of the picks. We're doing six picks again, be carefuls
Speaker 3: Tennessee at Philly, Seattle at the Rams and New Orleans
Speaker 3: at Tampa, Okay, Tennessee at Philly is in the be
Speaker 3: careful category. You seem to have a question as to.
Speaker 4: Why tomorrow, So why is this in the be careful?
Speaker 5: Rabel cover is seventy five percent of the time as
Speaker 5: an underdog and is sixteen and ten straight up.
Speaker 4: As an underdog of over a field goal.
Speaker 3: Okay, this is so. That is exactly the reason that
Speaker 3: this is a becase. I don't feel comfortable enough in
Speaker 3: that to me, so let me explain it. The Eagles
Speaker 3: weakness right now is going to be their past defense.
Speaker 3: They're very banged up in the secondary. Jordan Davis isn't
Speaker 3: back yet, and Jordan Davis isn't He's their big nose tackle.
Speaker 3: But what he allows them to do with the other
Speaker 3: guys on the defensive line. Losing him, even as a rookie,
Speaker 3: affects every part of their team right. The way to
Speaker 3: get after Philly is their runt is to throw the football.
Speaker 3: I don't trust the Titans' ability to consistently throw the
Speaker 3: football to be able to exploit that. But everything you
Speaker 3: said about Vrabel is why this is to be careful,
Speaker 3: Because I think the general public is going to be
Speaker 3: all over Philadelphia. Philly at home laying less than a
Speaker 3: touchdown when they just ran for three hundred and fifty
Speaker 3: yards on national television this past weekend. I think everyone's
Speaker 3: going to be on Philly. I think the smart side
Speaker 3: is Tennessee, but I don't trust Tennessee's ability to be
Speaker 3: able to necessarily exploit the one thing phill is weakest at.
Speaker 3: So for those reasons, it's a be careful. But the
Speaker 3: right side is what you were implying. The right side
Speaker 3: would be Tennessee. Seattle at the Rams is a be
Speaker 3: careful for this reason. Everyone after watching Bryce Perkins against
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, everyone is going to be on Seattle. And
Speaker 3: I understand this will be a Seattle home game and
Speaker 3: Aaron Donald's out there are is so Aaron Donald's out,
Speaker 3: Stafford's out. I know it's technically a Rams home game,
Speaker 3: but Seattle's gonna have the crowd cups, cup's been going exactly.
Speaker 3: How could anyone possibly bet the Rams? The Chiefs played
Speaker 3: terribly this past weekend and they still covered fifteen and
Speaker 3: a half. I think this is a game that Seattle
Speaker 3: is going to be in everyone's teaser, everyone's teaser and
Speaker 3: Seattle minus seven is going to be the most popular
Speaker 3: bet of the week. That's why it's to be careful.
Speaker 3: Do I have any analysis as to why the Rams
Speaker 3: could cover. I don't do. I also think Seattle blows
Speaker 3: them out. I do, But it feels like, given what
Speaker 3: we saw from Perkins, given the fact that Donald's not
Speaker 3: expected to play all of these things, it should be
Speaker 3: Seattle minus ten and a half. They're only minus seven.
Speaker 3: The general public is going to be all over them.
Speaker 3: My guess is Matt can tell me my year if
Speaker 3: I'm right Victor, who's done well this year. But Victor
Speaker 3: is our winning square better. Victor has Seattle involved in
Speaker 3: everything he's doing this weekend and loves them. I know it.
Speaker 3: So all those reasons just make me a little concerned
Speaker 3: that Seattle minus seven is too good. Demonte's gonna have
Speaker 3: another thirteen team parlay Seattle money line, and Seattle is
Speaker 3: gonna be all over it. I already know these things.
Speaker 3: Just be careful, and the last one be careful. New
Speaker 3: Orleans at Tampa Bay Tampa minus three and a half.
Speaker 4: Tom Brady could lose.
Speaker 3: So here's the thing. Dennis Allen is one of the
Speaker 3: worst coaches ever, I have a fun fact for you,
Speaker 3: So I gotta find the guy's name. Gosh darn it,
Speaker 3: or like an original owner Philadelphia Eagles. So here's so.
Speaker 3: I was looking up the worst coaches in NFL history. Okay,
Speaker 3: I got it, worst coaches in NFL history, and because
Speaker 3: Dennis Allen's sixth worst ever, and four of them are
Speaker 3: other like Rod Marinelli and Hugh Jackson and people that
Speaker 3: have been relatively recently. But if the Saints lose out
Speaker 3: the rest of the way, Dennis Allen could catch some
Speaker 3: of those guys. And then there is one guy. His
Speaker 3: name is Burt Bell, who coached I'm going to tell
Speaker 3: you his coaching record. He coached Philadelphia in the late
Speaker 3: thirties and early forties. And this is what Philadelphia did.
Speaker 3: They were one and eleven, they were then two and eight,
Speaker 3: they were then five and six, they were then one
Speaker 3: and nine, and then one in ten. He finished his
Speaker 3: Philadelphia career ten and forty four, winning less than twenty
Speaker 3: percent of his games. He then and I saw that
Speaker 3: he then was the head coach of the Steelers the
Speaker 3: next year, and I was like, hold on a minute.
Speaker 3: This guy started his career in Philly three and nineteen
Speaker 3: and got to coach three more years, ended his career
Speaker 3: in Philly two and nineteen, and then got another job.
Speaker 3: So I said, I was in the TV meeting when
Speaker 3: it happened, and I said, did he own the team
Speaker 3: or something? And I looked it up. He did. He
Speaker 3: owned the Eagles and then coached him to hell. So
Speaker 3: then sold him and bought the Steelers and made himself
Speaker 3: the coach there too, and then finally hired a new
Speaker 3: coach and then guess what, sold the Steelers and became
Speaker 3: the commissioner of the NFL. Bert Bell, the worst coach
Speaker 3: ever who owned two teams, made himself the head coach
Speaker 3: of both, then was the commissioner of the league for
Speaker 3: thirteen years and is a Hall of Famer. What a
Speaker 3: life it was like? How did this guy get six
Speaker 3: years of coaching winning nineteen percent of his games? And
Speaker 3: the anger was buying the team and then becoming and
Speaker 3: then becoming the commissioner of the league. All right, here's why,
Speaker 3: al right, here's why that Drelevan that is wild, right,
Speaker 3: So here's why that relevant. Dennis Allen's name was on
Speaker 3: same list as Burt Bell, So I'm not betting on
Speaker 3: Dennis Allen. Ever, ever, he's the Saints head coach. However,
Speaker 3: why should the Bucks be favored by more than a
Speaker 3: field goal go ahead?
Speaker 4: Well, I was saying that shouldn't been on Tom Brady.
Speaker 5: But the way that they lost is kind of like
Speaker 5: the fact that they even went into overtime, like.
Speaker 4: They really held the Browns of course the entire game.
Speaker 3: And the Saints are doing this weird thing where they
Speaker 3: won't let Jameis Winston play even though he's clearly better
Speaker 3: than Dalton, and I think people were like, well, they
Speaker 3: know they need a quarterback, so they're you know, kind
Speaker 3: of shadow tanking their season, but they don't have their
Speaker 3: draft pick. The Eagles have the same draft pick. Think
Speaker 3: about that the Eagles might get a top eight pick
Speaker 3: in this year's draft, even though they're gonna go fifteen
Speaker 3: to two or fourteen and three or something. Point is this,
Speaker 3: I can't lay more than a field goal with Tampa.
Speaker 3: Tristan Wurf's got hurt in overtime Tampa. I think Tampa
Speaker 3: probably wins, but I just be careful there. And then
Speaker 3: the perfectly priced games last three Jets at Minnesota, Denver,
Speaker 3: at Baltimore, and Miami at San Francisco. We're always quick
Speaker 3: in these categories. Minnesota at Minnesota and the Jets to
Speaker 3: me are nearly equivalent quality teams. Jets have an unbelievable defense,
Speaker 3: Minnesota is an unbelievable player in Justin Jefferson. I'm actually
Speaker 3: excited to watch this game purely to watch Sauce on
Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson. I think Sauce is already the best corner
Speaker 3: in football. I know he's a rookie. Seeing him on
Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson's excellent. Minnesota getting the three points for.
Speaker 4: I've got a quick question.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I was Mike White getting three points against a
Speaker 5: nine to two team on the perfectly on the road,
Speaker 5: on the perfectly priced category.
Speaker 4: What are they smoking in Vegas?
Speaker 3: Well, no, I think that is just right, because I
Speaker 3: don't think Minnesota is that good, and I think the
Speaker 3: Jets defense is exceptional and so Minnesota. What they're saying
Speaker 3: is they think the Jets and the Vikings are about
Speaker 3: equivalent teams, and that Minnesot's getting the three points at home.
Speaker 3: Some people might think the Vikings are way better than
Speaker 3: the Jets. I don't think that, and I think Mike
Speaker 3: White will be exposed against a team that can get
Speaker 3: a lot of pressure. I don't think the Vikings are that,
Speaker 3: but I expect the Vikings to win. Like twenty to
Speaker 3: seventeen Denver Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore minus eight is exactly where
Speaker 3: it should be more than a touchdown, not ten points
Speaker 3: because the offenses look shaky lately. And Miami at San Francisco,
Speaker 3: which might be the game, one of the games of
Speaker 3: the year to I think that line is just right.
Speaker 3: San Francisco is better than Miami, but not much better.
Speaker 3: They're at home, Miami's got to go all the way
Speaker 3: up to San Francisco. So San Francisco minus four and
Speaker 3: what I expect to be around a twenty one to
Speaker 3: seventeen game. I do expect two to come down to
Speaker 3: earth a bit against this Niners defense. If Two alights
Speaker 3: this Niners defense up, then I will have to on Monday,
Speaker 3: come on this show and maybe start to evolve on
Speaker 3: my tool opinion. I don't have to do that yet.
Speaker 3: There's our perfectly priced category. We'll do the right move,
Speaker 3: We'll see if we have any exotics, and we'll do
Speaker 3: the offer. By the way, last week gave out two offers,
Speaker 3: I didn't take one. I did take the other. They
Speaker 3: both hit the Thanksgiving Day offer and the Jags money
Speaker 3: line offer. Never doubt on the Jags money line offer
Speaker 3: two point conversion.
Speaker 4: Because there was like a doubt up until they got to.
Speaker 3: Never a doubt. Maybe you doubted it. I never doubt that.
Speaker 5: The offer was like covering basically from start to finish.
Speaker 5: The entire time, there was no question.
Speaker 3: Cowboys, I mean, the Bills were in question. The Bills
Speaker 3: money line was in question. Don't say that. All right,
Speaker 3: we'll be right back, all right, welcome back in what's
Speaker 3: right with Nick?
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: We've got our six picks this week. We were supposed
Speaker 3: to be five. We made it six. Atlanta plus one
Speaker 3: against Pittsburgh, canny pick. It shouldn't be a road favored
Speaker 3: against anyone. Giants plus two and a half against Washington
Speaker 3: Taylor Heineke should not be a road favorite against a
Speaker 3: good defense. Chargers minus one and a half against the Raiders.
Speaker 3: Chargers have to win the game. Raiders have a terrible coach.
Speaker 3: I like the Chargers. Kan City minus two against Cincinnati
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes less than a field goal favorite is a
Speaker 3: must bet against anyone. Colts plus eleven and a half
Speaker 3: at Dallas it's just too many points. And then our
Speaker 3: bonus pick Jags minus won at Detroit. The Prince that
Speaker 3: was promised betting ban is off. Last week. We had
Speaker 3: him on the money line as part of the offer.
Speaker 3: This week he gets for the you know, just the
Speaker 3: second time in his career back to back victories. Jags
Speaker 3: are back, Prince. That was promises back Jags over win
Speaker 3: total alive again. That was one of our big bets
Speaker 3: of the year. Remember our season preview show, what do
Speaker 3: we say our single favorite future was Tampa under eleven
Speaker 3: and a half. That bet has cashed and it's week thirteen.
Speaker 3: They are already have hit. They could win the rest
Speaker 3: of their games and they would go eleven and six.
Speaker 3: How about that for a sharp wager by your guy.
Speaker 3: So there it is. There's our six bets this week.
Speaker 3: Now time for the right move. The right move is
Speaker 3: not going well. First this year, it has been cursed
Speaker 3: a bit. However, you though I joked about this earlier,
Speaker 3: I don't believe in curses. Can't City minus two is
Speaker 3: the right move. I'm not scared. What are you laughing about?
Speaker 3: It's the best bet on the board. The Chiefs minus
Speaker 3: two is the best bet on the board. I'm flying
Speaker 3: to Vegas in a few hours. I'm gonna go there.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna bet some World Cup. I'm gonna play some
Speaker 3: poker and I'm gonna win a lot of money. And
Speaker 3: then all of the money that I've won, I'm gonna
Speaker 3: take it up in a big bundle to the counter
Speaker 3: and I'm gonna slid it into the teller and say
Speaker 3: can City minus two please, sir or ma'am, And they're
Speaker 3: gonna have to call someone over. They're gonna be like, you,
Speaker 3: are we allowed to take a bet this? You're allowed
Speaker 3: to take the bet?
Speaker 5: Well, it will be dope that you will be right
Speaker 5: next to some slot machines to win your money back
Speaker 5: if you don't hit.
Speaker 3: Okay, I don't play slots. First of all, I've never
Speaker 3: played slots. Show me some respect. I will play a
Speaker 3: little bit of blackjack, a lot of poker, and watch
Speaker 3: a lot of World Cup. That's my plan for this weekend.
Speaker 3: Your mom will be shopping. That's my plan. And then
Speaker 3: I'm all of my profit. I am doubling it by
Speaker 3: betting it on Kensity minus too. This is not sound
Speaker 3: gambling strategy, by the way, but I'm in Vegas, it's
Speaker 3: my team, it's the game of the year. I don't
Speaker 3: have an exotic.
Speaker 4: For you this week.
Speaker 3: There's not a teaser. I like every teaser you could
Speaker 3: build involve Seattle being teased down, and I'm a little
Speaker 3: nervous about that Seattle Rams game for one reason or another.
Speaker 3: So I don't have an exotic for you, Demonse, what's
Speaker 3: the offer.
Speaker 4: The offer this week is called Maholmes locks up the MVP.
Speaker 5: Okay, the producers the producers, and I have heard you
Speaker 5: say that you like the Pats on Thursday Night. So
Speaker 5: let's say Josh Allen can't cover the three and a
Speaker 5: half versus New England, Jalen hurts, Eagles don't cover versus Tennessee,
Speaker 5: and Kansas City beat Sincy by an adjusted spread of
Speaker 5: six and a half payout plus seven ninety two.
Speaker 3: Okay, I don't do adjusted spreads because I'm not a child. However,
Speaker 3: I'm going to counter your offer with this one because
Speaker 3: the one piece of jot of the MVP that you
Speaker 3: guys didn't include was Tua, who has a better chance
Speaker 3: right now than Josh Allen. Josh Allen, So my counter
Speaker 3: offer would be the Patriots plus three and a half,
Speaker 3: the Chiefs minus two. What's the other one you had?
Speaker 3: It's Jalen Hurts and the Eagles don't cover against Tennessee. Okay,
Speaker 3: so Tennessee plus five, and then the Miami Dolphins team
Speaker 3: told under, let me see what that is. They are
Speaker 3: the away team Miami total points under twenty and a half.
Speaker 3: That is plus thirteen hundred. I'm taking that offer. So
Speaker 3: your offer, I decline. I am instead I am doing
Speaker 3: New England plus three and a half, Tennessee plus the
Speaker 3: five KC minus two, and the Dolphins under twenty and
Speaker 3: a half points against San Francisco. That's my counter offer.
Speaker 3: That way, we're fading Tua and not being invested in
Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo, which I don't want to have to be
Speaker 3: plus twelve fifty eight to be exact. I'll take that offer.
Speaker 3: Good luck everyone. If you're in Vegas this weekend, come
Speaker 3: say lo if you see me, I'll be in the
Speaker 3: sports book. We're in the Aria poker room. Talk to
Speaker 3: you guys on Monday. What's right