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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros.

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Speaker 2: It's time to place your bets and this will be

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Speaker 2: Joey Pete, Joe Pi Zapia and today we're looking into

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Speaker 2: the division round the Saturday games for the NFL one,

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Speaker 2: we've got some fresh meat going against the establishment and

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Speaker 2: at number two, Paul, we've got Indivision rivalry.

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Speaker 3: That's very exciting. In fact, obviously there's so much to

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Speaker 3: break down these games. I'm very happy that Matthew Friedman

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Speaker 3: is here to do it with me as always and

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Speaker 3: our guest from FTN.

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Speaker 1: He's also the host of Mean Streets where I go

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Speaker 1: on all the time, like to hang out.

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Speaker 3: He's over at the FTN network, the one, the only

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Speaker 3: Chris Meani and MENI. This is kind of fun because

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Speaker 3: this is almost like the ghosts of you know, Eagles

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Speaker 3: coaches past, present in future.

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Speaker 1: Right. You got Andy Reid.

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Speaker 3: Involved on Saturday, you got Doug Peterson involved in Saturday,

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Speaker 3: and you're current head coach, sirih Any, and I know

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Speaker 3: you're an Eagles guy, so it's a lot of mixed

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Speaker 3: feelings going.

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Speaker 1: On for you.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, there's a lot going on.

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Speaker 5: I was happy to see Doug Peterson and the Jags

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Speaker 5: pull that out last week. And as you mentioned, I

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Speaker 5: mean he's been on the coaching staff with Andy Reid

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Speaker 5: in years past with Kansas City, and he did a

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Speaker 5: great job in Philadelphia with some.

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Speaker 4: Inexperienced quarterbacks on route to a Super Bowl.

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Speaker 5: I just liked the story for Doug Peterson man, like

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Speaker 5: I thought he got treated unfairly in Philly. You know,

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Speaker 5: he went there, he won a Super Bowl, he was

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Speaker 5: canned a couple of years after that, had the whole

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Speaker 5: Carson Wentz saga and one year removed from the NFL,

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Speaker 5: he's back with the Jags. Last year they were the

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Speaker 5: worst team in football offensively, and he brings them to

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Speaker 5: a division title and a nice comeback story.

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Speaker 4: And we'll see. He's got to have his hands full

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Speaker 4: against this former guy and Andy Reid, but it's a

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Speaker 4: nice story across the board.

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Speaker 5: And we've been watering flowers in Philadelphia since Nick's here

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Speaker 5: and he said that, and the flowers are growing. The

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Speaker 5: team is feeling themselves, so we'll see if they can

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Speaker 5: take care of the Giants again.

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Speaker 3: Speaking of comebacks too, that pretty decent comeback for the

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Speaker 3: Jacksonville Jaguars.

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Speaker 1: Last Saturday, that's for sure.

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Speaker 3: Now both of these teams that were getting into the

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Speaker 3: one seeds hosting these games, Friedman, both the Eagles and

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs coming off that buy. How crucial is that

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Speaker 3: in your opinion for both of these teams the way

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Speaker 3: they were entering the postseason.

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Speaker 6: I mean the bye hugely significant obviously for the Chiefs,

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Speaker 6: significant for any team in general, not just because you

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Speaker 6: have the time off, but also as the number one

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Speaker 6: seed you are playing, you know, presumably the worst of

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Speaker 6: the remaining playoff teams in the bracket, so you know,

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Speaker 6: really big, and you know there's obviously, you know, the

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Speaker 6: known factor of oh Andy Reid coming off of a

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Speaker 6: bye historically crushes and that's been overstated, But it is

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Speaker 6: true that Andy Reid's teams do better than your average

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Speaker 6: team coming off of the bye. That is a fact,

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Speaker 6: not like massively better, but enough to where it should

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Speaker 6: be noted. So yeah, it's a situation where Andy Reid,

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Speaker 6: like everything is flowing his direction here. And the Chiefs,

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Speaker 6: I've had them power rated as if not the best

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Speaker 6: team for the entirety of the season, a top two team,

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Speaker 6: and I still have them right there with the Buffalo Bills.

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Speaker 6: I do have them power rated as my number one

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Speaker 6: team at Arrowhead. They do have a significant home field advantage,

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Speaker 6: one of the best home field advantages in the league.

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Speaker 6: Doug Peterson, you know, in his time with the Eagles

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Speaker 6: and with Jacksonville a little bit, his team hasn't been

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Speaker 6: all that great on the road, like just a little

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Speaker 6: bit worse than your typical team has been on the road.

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Speaker 6: So it's a negative situation for them. But it is

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Speaker 6: a coach going against Andy Reid and a team that

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Speaker 6: he knows, you know, because of his time there previously.

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Speaker 6: So I think there is some mitigation there. I have

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Speaker 6: this projected exactly a ten and so I think, you know,

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Speaker 6: nine and a half. If it happened to get to

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Speaker 6: that number, the you know, the market has moved around

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Speaker 6: a little nine and a half, I could see betting it.

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Speaker 6: I would, you know, obviously, prefer it much more at nine.

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Speaker 6: I got it at eight and a half a little

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Speaker 6: bit earlier. That's where the market is now. If this

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Speaker 6: moved past ten and hit ten and a half, like

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Speaker 6: I in the betting pros app I would set an

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Speaker 6: alert to say, okay, if this number happens to get

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Speaker 6: past ten and gets to ten and a half, then

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Speaker 6: I would consider betting the Jags, but with the market

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Speaker 6: where it is currently, I see value on the Chiefs again.

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Speaker 6: I think this number should be ten.

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Speaker 3: Well, we're gonna continue to break down these numbers and

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Speaker 3: hopefully for the Chiefs and the Eagles, for their standpoint,

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Speaker 3: it works out better for them being number one seeds

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Speaker 3: because last year both number one seeds Tennessee Titans and

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Speaker 3: the Green bit Packers were ousted in this round last year.

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Speaker 3: Let's not forget sometimes teams come out flat a little

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Speaker 3: bit after that week off. We'll see if that's the

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Speaker 3: case before we jump into the analysis of that first

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Speaker 3: game on the afternoon Saturday Slate Kansley Chiefs hosting the

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Speaker 3: Jacksonville Jaguars. Just a reminder everybody watching this video subscribe

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Speaker 3: to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now, or if

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Speaker 3: dot com slash Betting Pros. Comment on this video because

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Speaker 3: when you do, you can win a free upgrade to

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Speaker 3: Betting Pros Premium.

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Speaker 1: Now. Whether you're looking for access to exclusive picks.

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Speaker 3: Top rated player props, or just custom analysis of your

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Speaker 3: betting performance, Betting Pros Premium has the tools to help you.

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Speaker 1: Cash more bets. That's it. It's plain and simple.

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Speaker 3: If you don't want to wait for the giveaway, just

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Speaker 3: sign up today at bettingpros dot com, slash upgrade and

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Speaker 3: start barting betting smarter, not harder, because that's what we

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Speaker 3: like to do here. Always working smarter. That's what Matthew

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Speaker 3: Friedman keeps telling me to do. It's not working so hard, Joe,

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Speaker 3: Actually no, he says, work harder and work smarter.

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Speaker 1: You're lacking behind.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's get to the AFC Wildcard game in

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Speaker 3: the afternoon. Chiefs arrested healthy, we'll see how they performed.

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Speaker 3: Their defense has not created a lot of turnovers. That's

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Speaker 3: one thing that you could certainly say about this Chief's

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Speaker 3: unit in the twenty twenty two season, and they did

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Speaker 3: face off in November these teams, the Chiefs being the

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Speaker 3: Jaguars twenty seven to seventeen.

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville's defense certainly struggled in that game.

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Speaker 3: Gave up three hundred and thirty yards Patrick Mahomes four

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Speaker 3: touchdowns and a pick. The Jags offense can't really afford

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Speaker 3: to get off to the same kind of start that

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Speaker 3: they did in the last playoff game.

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Speaker 1: I believe that's very safe to say.

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Speaker 3: However, I will say the Jags defense certainly looking better

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Speaker 3: in the last six weeks or so in the close

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Speaker 3: of the season. So meanie, let's talk about this number

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Speaker 3: eight and a half that has stayed so far. The

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Speaker 3: over under has moved from fifty one and a half

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Speaker 3: to fifty three, so a little bit of movement there.

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Speaker 3: Also on the money line from plus three forty on

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Speaker 3: the Jag side to plus three forty five. So anything

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Speaker 3: right off the bat here, either the movement on the

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Speaker 3: over under or this number yourself that you want to

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Speaker 3: talk about.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think the movement on the total.

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Speaker 5: I jumped on the over right away immediately. I think

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Speaker 5: Jacksonville can do their part and score some points. I mean,

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Speaker 5: we've seen their offense in the second half a tail

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Speaker 5: of two halfs. Of course, maybe some nerves there for

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Speaker 5: Trevor Lawrence. And I didn't really like the way that

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Speaker 5: Doug Peterson called that game last week. I thought there

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Speaker 5: should have been more runs. It seemed like every time

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Speaker 5: they give it a traves etm they got five yards

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Speaker 5: and they that's what teams have done all year. They've

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Speaker 5: run all over the Chargers put him in a tough spot.

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Speaker 5: They're all over the intermediate throws in the middle of

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Speaker 5: the field, and they picked off Trevor Lawrence. But he

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Speaker 5: saw what he was able to do in the second

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Speaker 5: half of that game. I mean, over the last five games,

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Speaker 5: this is a team that's averaging twenty nine points per game.

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Speaker 5: And if there's one weakness on this Chiefs team, it

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Speaker 5: is their defense. I mean, Matt just gave all the numbers. Offensively,

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Speaker 5: I mean they're total DVA number one, number one in

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Speaker 5: pass EPA per play, number one, EPA per drop back,

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Speaker 5: number one, averaging twenty nine points per game in the season,

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Speaker 5: number one in the NFL. You talked about Andy Reid

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Speaker 5: and Bye Weeks. I mean they came out hot last

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Speaker 5: year in the playoffs. Forty two points in their first game,

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Speaker 5: forty two points in their second game. I would imagine

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Speaker 5: they're getting two thirty in this game, just similar to

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Speaker 5: the last game where maybe Mahomes throws three or four touchdowns.

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Speaker 5: This is a team that can't stop the tight end.

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Speaker 5: The fourth most yards allowed to the ten end position.

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Speaker 5: Travis Kelsey's gonna be a big part of this game.

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Speaker 5: Obviously not breaking any news, but I still like the

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Speaker 5: total at fifty three and a half. As I said,

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Speaker 5: we could see some sort of backdoor cover. I also

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Speaker 5: agree with Freeman on his number. If you see some

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Speaker 5: nines I'm seeing right now using the prop shop at FTN,

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Speaker 5: I'm seeing one to nine plus nine over at points.

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Speaker 4: Bet I could get behind that.

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Speaker 5: I feel like there is potential of a backdoor cover,

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Speaker 5: but it's hard to just where the stop's gonna come from.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 5: Jacksonville can score top ten total DVOA according to Football

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Speaker 5: Out Series number six in past DVOA, and mentioned the

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Speaker 5: run that they've been on recently. Got a nice running

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Speaker 5: back as well to maybe slow the pace down in

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Speaker 5: this game if they lean on him a little bit more.

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Speaker 5: But defensively they're just they're one of the worst defensive

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Speaker 5: teams here remaining in the NFL twentieth against the past.

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Speaker 5: So I think maybe a backdoor covers in play. I

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Speaker 5: think we'll see a lot of points, but it's really

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Speaker 5: hard not to back Mahomes in this offense.

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Speaker 3: I saw somebody make a comment just this morning on

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Speaker 3: Twitter that said, you know, we got pretty much all

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Speaker 3: the outcomes of the games we thought, but they were

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Speaker 3: more interesting for the most part than they thought they

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Speaker 3: would be. I thought that was very well, So I'm

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Speaker 3: stealing that. I'm gonber tend like I said it, and

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Speaker 3: I want to talk about that very same instance. Is

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Speaker 3: feels like a foregone conclusion.

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Speaker 1: The Chiefs are the establishment.

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Speaker 3: They are this team that we know Patrick Mahomes in

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Speaker 3: this MVP conversation, Jarl Lawrence coming off an incredible emotional

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Speaker 3: comeback win, part of this new Guard, part of you know,

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Speaker 3: this quarterback crop too, that we think is going to

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Speaker 3: be in this elite quarterback tier for many years to

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Speaker 3: come along with Patrick Mahomes. But it just feels like

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Speaker 3: the beginning where you feel like we're kind of in

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Speaker 3: the prime for Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 3: That being said, look at this number here in the

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Speaker 3: eight and a half, do you think maybe that's too

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Speaker 3: small Friedman, when you're looking at this that you know

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Speaker 3: that they just don't stack up with the experience level

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Speaker 3: of the Chiefs, with the experience level to Andy Reid

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Speaker 3: coming off the buye, we know how good that always

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Speaker 3: is with extra time to prepare. And then on top

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Speaker 3: of which, where these two teams are at one starting

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Speaker 3: to uptick and the other at the top head of

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Speaker 3: the class.

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Speaker 6: Basically, yeah, I mean I would again I this projected

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Speaker 6: right around ten, I would expect the Chiefs to win,

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Speaker 6: but like nothing would surprise me in this instance. And

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Speaker 6: part of it is, yeah, I mean, Trevor Lawrence has

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Speaker 6: just been so good compared to what we saw last year,

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Speaker 6: and I think, like you can see that like this

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Speaker 6: is not where he plateaus, Like there is a trajectory

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Speaker 6: of him continuing to move into the elite tier for

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Speaker 6: the quarterbacks in the league. Similar I would say to

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Speaker 6: what we saw out of Joe Burrow last year, and

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Speaker 6: so it would not surprise me, just as we saw

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Speaker 6: Kansas the struggle against the Bengals last year in the playoffs,

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Speaker 6: it would not surprise me if somehow Jacksonville actually does

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Speaker 6: like squeak out a win, Like I'm not betting on it,

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Speaker 6: I'm not projecting it, but like I can imagine how

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Speaker 6: it happens. Like they do have a quarterback who in

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Speaker 6: a year could be considered one of the top three

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Speaker 6: quarterbacks in the league, Like that is within the range

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Speaker 6: of outcomes, and at some point he takes that step forward.

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Speaker 6: Why not in the playoffs? And one thing, even if

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Speaker 6: Jacksonville doesn't win, this game, I can I can see

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Speaker 6: the back door cover is Again I said, I have

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Speaker 6: projected at ten, but there's something with the projections with

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Speaker 6: Kansas City. Where all year Kansas City, like Meani mentioned

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Speaker 6: it like number one across the board in a ton

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Speaker 6: of offensive metrics. They have Patrick Mahomes number one in

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Speaker 6: a lot of the passing metrics that you would look at.

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Speaker 6: And yet like when you correlate those types of efficiency

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Speaker 6: numbers with how teams tend to perform against the spread,

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Speaker 6: the Chiefs are underperforming expectations, like they are consistently not

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Speaker 6: covering the spread, especially when it is a large spread

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Speaker 6: this year. And so that's not to say that the

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Speaker 6: Chiefs like aren't that team they could cover these spreads

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Speaker 6: if they played for a full sixty minutes, if they

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Speaker 6: played with that urgency. I just don't know if we

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Speaker 6: actually see them do that. So again, I have it

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Speaker 6: projected right around ten.

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Speaker 1: But I can.

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Speaker 6: See how the Chiefs underwhelm expectations once again.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well we talked about it, just I think the

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Speaker 1: last couple.

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Speaker 3: Of weeks too, getting into the playoffs, the Bills and

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Speaker 3: Chiefs having trouble putting teams away, and when you know it.

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Speaker 3: We saw the Bills struggle again putting away the Miami Dolphins,

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Speaker 3: a team by all accounts they should have put away

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Speaker 3: early and often they did not do that, and that

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Speaker 3: game got way too close for way too long, right

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Speaker 3: to the last minute or so. Can't say Chiefs seven

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Speaker 3: and a half point margin of victory this season? That

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Speaker 3: is their average margin of victory. When you're looking at that,

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Speaker 3: MENI and you're looking at this number of the eight

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Speaker 3: and a half. Do you see we're recording this year

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Speaker 3: on what day.

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Speaker 4: Is it today?

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Speaker 1: Tuesday?

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Speaker 3: Trying to get my day straight here? Do you see

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Speaker 3: this number changing at all as the week goes on?

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Speaker 3: Is the early value to lock it in? We already

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Speaker 3: saw the over under move up. Do you see this

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Speaker 3: number of eight and a half moving as well?

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Speaker 1: Potentially?

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Speaker 4: I don't really.

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Speaker 5: I don't think it'll get to ten ten and a half.

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Speaker 5: I think people would bet the other way if it

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Speaker 5: was to get there. And I mean, if you want

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Speaker 5: to wait it out, by all means, you potentially could.

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Speaker 5: But if it got to nine and a half, ten

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Speaker 5: I would jump all over. Like I said, this nine,

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Speaker 5: I kind of feel pretty comfortable laying it. I know

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Speaker 5: it's a little uneasy. But what we've seen so far

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Speaker 5: in the NFL this year is these teams aren't really

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Speaker 5: covering these spreads, and even with freedom and alluded to it,

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Speaker 5: you know, maybe.

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Speaker 4: They've been a little bit underwhelming.

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Speaker 5: And even though they've been fantastic overall, we just expect

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Speaker 5: so much more and the numbers expect so much more

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Speaker 5: as well when you look at them from an analytical standpoint.

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Speaker 4: But I really do.

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Speaker 5: Believe that the Jags can do their part offensively and

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Speaker 5: kind of keep up if there's one or two turnovers.

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Speaker 5: I know, a couple years ago we saw this Chiefs

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Speaker 5: team really starts slow when they won the Super Bowl

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Speaker 5: that year. Weren't they trailing from behind in every single game?

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Speaker 5: And they came back in the second half, So that

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Speaker 5: that's possible as well. Even though we're talking about Andy

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Speaker 5: Reid and you know how explosive they were last year

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Speaker 5: and and things like that, I still feel like this

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Speaker 5: JAG's offense is pretty good. Like, again, there are top

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Speaker 5: ten offense, they got some weapons, like there's so many

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Speaker 5: to win there really is.

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Speaker 3: You know, the emergence of Evan Ingram this year, or

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Speaker 3: you had Zay Jones kind of come out and know where.

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Speaker 3: I don't think anybody, anybody in the fancy community thought

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Speaker 3: of that.

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Speaker 4: Joe is an elite wide receiver in my opinion as well.

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Speaker 1: I got a good run, paid like it.

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Speaker 3: But they were telling us that they were they knew

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Speaker 3: something we didn't, and we should have listened, I guess

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Speaker 3: a little bit harder. But and this is why the

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Speaker 3: betting pros app is so important. To make sure you

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Speaker 3: have that on your phone so you know when these

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Speaker 3: lines change, you can go ahead and make your wagers accordingly.

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Speaker 3: Let's go to the next game here. This is the

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Speaker 3: nightcap here the Giants and the Eagles. Now, the Eagles

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Speaker 3: swept the series with the Giants this year and blew

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Speaker 3: them out by twenty six points in December, and then

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Speaker 3: the Davis Webb rematch there, so this is a totally

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Speaker 3: different set of circumstances. I feel like this Giants team

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Speaker 3: that's coming into Philadelphia is a very different Giants team

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Speaker 3: than I think the Eagles are used to seeing. Daniel Jones,

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Speaker 3: first player in NFL history to record a three hundred

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Speaker 3: plus passing yard game with two passing touchdowns and seventy

334
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Speaker 3: plus rushing yards in the same start, not too shabby

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Speaker 3: for Daniel Jones. Now was against the Vikings defense. Different

336
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Speaker 3: defense here with the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Eagles are

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Speaker 3: the only team in the NFL to have a top

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Speaker 3: three offense and a top three defense. So this is

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Speaker 3: a team that gets it done on both sides of

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Speaker 3: the ball. Friedman, let's talk about this game here. We

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Speaker 3: have the number at seven currently here and as we

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Speaker 3: look ahead, forty eight and a half. Excuse me, forty

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Speaker 3: eight is the over under plus two sixty five for

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Speaker 3: the Giants. Now, the Giants certainly have a lot of momentum.

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Speaker 3: The Giants feel like a team where look they are

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Speaker 3: coming in here sort of playing a little bit with

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Speaker 3: house money. Brian Dables done a fantastic job here with

348
00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:58,240
Speaker 3: this squad getting them prepared. You see on bettingpros dot

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Speaker 3: com some places the consensus is already moved to seven

350
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Speaker 3: and a half. So, Freeman, what is your early take

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Speaker 3: on this game on Tuesday? Where it's going and where

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Speaker 3: you see the value now?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so this line opened at seven, moved to seven

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Speaker 6: and a half, bumped down to seven, and is now

355
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Speaker 6: at seven and a half. I think it's going to

356
00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,240
Speaker 6: straddle those two numbers. For the entirety of the week,

357
00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:18,760
Speaker 6: just bouncing back and forth between them, and you know,

358
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Speaker 6: seven point twenty five is you know, the market where

359
00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:23,760
Speaker 6: this is you know, basically going to be, and so

360
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Speaker 6: I do like. Man, it just it feels disgusting to

361
00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,040
Speaker 6: like the Giants because I don't think they.

362
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Speaker 1: Have that talented of a roster. Uh.

363
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Speaker 6: And you know, I just I have to acknowledge that

364
00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:41,480
Speaker 6: they are outperforming expectations. Definitely expectations of where I thought

365
00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:43,040
Speaker 6: they would be at the beginning of the season, but

366
00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:48,960
Speaker 6: even my current expectations, they they are playing well. But man,

367
00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,680
Speaker 6: it feels shocky to go with the Eagles, But I

368
00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:53,640
Speaker 6: do have to go with the Eagles in the spot

369
00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:56,000
Speaker 6: at seven. I would not bet it at seven and

370
00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:58,160
Speaker 6: a half, but I would bet it at seven. I

371
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,680
Speaker 6: haven't projected at eight point two five, and so you know,

372
00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:04,160
Speaker 6: whatever book you're using, I would say, you know, set

373
00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:06,480
Speaker 6: alerts in the betting pros app when it's bouncing around

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Speaker 6: and the number hit seven, I think there's value there.

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00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:10,320
Speaker 1: There are a number of.

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Speaker 6: Factors that I think disadvantage the Giants in this spot,

377
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:20,120
Speaker 6: and so they do play well in Division. Daniel Jones,

378
00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,440
Speaker 6: For whatever reason, you know, since the beginning of his career,

379
00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:25,280
Speaker 6: he actually has played pretty well in division, and he

380
00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:27,520
Speaker 6: has historically played pretty well.

381
00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:28,160
Speaker 1: On the road.

382
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Speaker 6: He's done fairly well as an underdog. So in terms

383
00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:33,680
Speaker 6: of like a trends perspective, he is in like the

384
00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:37,120
Speaker 6: sweet spot for where you would historically want to back him.

385
00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,800
Speaker 6: But the Giants are playing with only six days of

386
00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:43,560
Speaker 6: rest versus like the seven, and you know, like going

387
00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,760
Speaker 6: against a team that's on the by the Eagles playing

388
00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,000
Speaker 6: on Saturday instead of Sunday, so it's not the full

389
00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:50,880
Speaker 6: fourteen days for them, it's only thirteen days. But you know,

390
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:54,120
Speaker 6: going from fourteen to thirteen that doesn't really matter. Going

391
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:58,120
Speaker 6: from seven to six that matters. And it's not as

392
00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:01,480
Speaker 6: if this is just a one time thing for the Giants.

393
00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,600
Speaker 6: Out of their past six games, five of them have

394
00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,200
Speaker 6: been on the road. Like this is like they are

395
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,960
Speaker 6: like road weary at this point, like they're road warriors,

396
00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,720
Speaker 6: but like it it has to wear on them at

397
00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,480
Speaker 6: some point, and so I like, I think that is

398
00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:21,000
Speaker 6: a significant downgrade in terms of how you would project them,

399
00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:23,399
Speaker 6: just kind of based on like looking at historical numbers

400
00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:25,840
Speaker 6: for how teams on the road for that extent of

401
00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:29,640
Speaker 6: time have done, and I think that makes a difference

402
00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,560
Speaker 6: in terms of where I'm projecting this game versus where

403
00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:35,000
Speaker 6: the market is right now. The fact that they have

404
00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,560
Speaker 6: only six days to recover and they have just been

405
00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 6: rugged on the road out. This will be their fifth

406
00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:42,600
Speaker 6: game on the road out of their past six. That

407
00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:45,560
Speaker 6: is just unfathomable. That is the type of thing that

408
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:49,040
Speaker 6: NFL schedule makers during the regular season would never do

409
00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:51,840
Speaker 6: to a team, right But because it's the playoffs, they

410
00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:53,480
Speaker 6: have that run of bad luck.

411
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:55,640
Speaker 1: It is definitely a run of bad luck.

412
00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:57,720
Speaker 3: Potentially, I had a run of good luck because I

413
00:17:57,720 --> 00:17:59,280
Speaker 3: had the Giants on the money line, so it was

414
00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,000
Speaker 3: a good time for me this weekend and I at

415
00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,440
Speaker 3: tempted to let it ride again. It's plus two to

416
00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:06,280
Speaker 3: ninety on there now. Mini, we've seen a little bit

417
00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,800
Speaker 3: of the familiarity breeding contempt here because we had the

418
00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:11,879
Speaker 3: Dolphins and the Bills. That was a little bit closer

419
00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,040
Speaker 3: than we thought. You did have a while there in

420
00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:16,639
Speaker 3: that Ravens Bengals game too, or it was a little tight.

421
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:19,600
Speaker 3: That is something I think you can't take out of

422
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,159
Speaker 3: the equation here, which is looking at this number for

423
00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:23,679
Speaker 3: me when I keep coming back to whether you.

424
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:25,359
Speaker 1: See it it's seven or seven and a half.

425
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,280
Speaker 3: I keep coming back to this is a very familiar

426
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,120
Speaker 3: side here for these two teams. They know what they're doing.

427
00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 3: Plus the Giants, again, that team that has nothing to

428
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:35,800
Speaker 3: lose is super dangerous. I think we'd all agree that

429
00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:37,560
Speaker 3: the Eagles are a better football team. They've had a

430
00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:40,119
Speaker 3: better season, but that doesn't matter. All that matters is

431
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 3: the team that plays the best, not the best team wins.

432
00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:45,880
Speaker 3: So Mini, with all that under account and the Giants

433
00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:48,440
Speaker 3: playing continuously with his house money, continuing to be the

434
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 3: road warriors, US against the world, how safe is that

435
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,000
Speaker 3: seven and a half? And do you see any other

436
00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,080
Speaker 3: value on the Giants potentially to even upset the Eagles here?

437
00:18:58,320 --> 00:18:58,560
Speaker 1: Yeah?

438
00:18:58,560 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 4: I do.

439
00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:00,879
Speaker 5: Actually, I feel like the Giants could come in and

440
00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:04,600
Speaker 5: make some noise. And I think what you said, I know, right,

441
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:06,360
Speaker 5: I know you guys are going to say that it's

442
00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,560
Speaker 5: like I mean a passimistic fan or I'm optimistic and

443
00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:12,040
Speaker 5: go either way. But yeah, I just I feel like

444
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:14,479
Speaker 5: I've said it all year actually with the Eagles, like

445
00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 5: they're good, they're playing well, but are they really that

446
00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:19,360
Speaker 5: good of a team? And I do believe they are

447
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 5: a better team than the Giants, and I think we

448
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:23,360
Speaker 5: can all agree on that both sides of the football,

449
00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:25,199
Speaker 5: they're going to dominate the line of scrimage, which is

450
00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:28,120
Speaker 5: key to winning most football games. The secondary has been

451
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 5: elite this season, and Daniel Jones and Dayball like they

452
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:35,200
Speaker 5: played against a Vikings team and they changed.

453
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:35,720
Speaker 4: Up their game plan.

454
00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:37,560
Speaker 5: I mean, if you look at Daniel Jones overall, this

455
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:38,800
Speaker 5: is a guy that kind of lives in the mid

456
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,359
Speaker 5: twenties in terms of passing attempts and thirteen of sixteen

457
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 5: games it was two hundred twenty passing yards are fewer

458
00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 5: three hundred yards and three games, two of them against

459
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,159
Speaker 5: the Vikings, Like they didn't use takuon really at all.

460
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:50,280
Speaker 5: They used them, of course, but not like thirty two

461
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:53,720
Speaker 5: plus carries on the ground. They just picked apart that secondary.

462
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 5: I think it's going to be a different game plan.

463
00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:57,240
Speaker 5: I think this game is going to be a lot slower,

464
00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:00,200
Speaker 5: and I think we can take what you said, Joe

465
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,920
Speaker 5: from some of the divisional matchups the Ravens and the

466
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:06,040
Speaker 5: Bengals and the third matchup played really tight. That third

467
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:09,879
Speaker 5: matchup against Miami and Buffalo whatever, like coaching things from

468
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:13,680
Speaker 5: Mike McDaniel's some mistakes, you know, seventh round rookie quarterback

469
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 5: in Skyler making some mistakes, and Josh Allen turned the

470
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 5: ball over a couple times. It's just that third matchup.

471
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,960
Speaker 5: And even when these two teams played in Week eighteen

472
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 5: and was Galen Hurt's first game back, I actually jumped

473
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 5: on the points at plus sixteen, even though the Giants

474
00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 5: weren't playing anybody, because I was nervous of where this

475
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,639
Speaker 5: Philly team was at.

476
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:33,600
Speaker 4: Missing some players on both sides.

477
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:37,000
Speaker 5: It sounds like Lane Johnson's gonna play, which is a

478
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,680
Speaker 5: huge deal because he's allowed nine pressures all year, and

479
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,560
Speaker 5: Jack Driscoll, who filled in for Lane Johnson in two games,

480
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 5: allowed six pressures twenty eight games in a row from

481
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 5: Lane Johnson without even allowing a sack, like he is

482
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,080
Speaker 5: a big part of this offensive line. And when these

483
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 5: two teams played in Week fourteen, when everybody was healthy,

484
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 5: I think maybe the Giants were missing a couple people

485
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 5: in the secondary, but from the Philly standpoint, everybody was healthy.

486
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 5: It had a season high forty eight points, six touchdowns,

487
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:03,880
Speaker 5: two hundred and fifty four rushing yards, and four hundred

488
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,720
Speaker 5: and thirty seven total. I think it's gonna be run, run, run,

489
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:08,639
Speaker 5: on both sides. I don't think Jalen Hurts is one

490
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 5: hundred percent That Week eighteen game was kind of like

491
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,800
Speaker 5: a feel out process, but there were no design runs.

492
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 5: He was getting the ball away as quick as he could.

493
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 5: He wasn't taking any hits. If you take away his

494
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 5: rushing ability, this team could struggle offensively to move the football.

495
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 5: That's my one concern. But I feel like they will

496
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 5: lean on the run. I feel the same sort of

497
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 5: deal teams that have beat in the Eagles. Washington comes

498
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 5: to mind. Went into the link, ran the ball, ran

499
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,400
Speaker 5: the ball, soliled the pace down, got into manageable third

500
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 5: down situations and moved the ball that way and killed

501
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 5: a lot of clocks. So I do feel like this

502
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 5: will be a slower pace. I'm a little hesitant on

503
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 5: the total I grew with Freeman.

504
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 1: I don't.

505
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 5: I think it'll just kind of seven and a half,

506
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 5: maybe a six and a half and seven. I've jumped

507
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:52,680
Speaker 5: on the Giants plus seven and a half. I feel

508
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:54,879
Speaker 5: like this will be a tight game, and Brian Dables

509
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 5: is gonna learn a thing or two from those two matchups.

510
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 5: I mean He's a really great play caller, so I

511
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 5: think he can take a little bit away from from

512
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 5: those two spots. But ultimately, I feel like Kurtz isn't

513
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 5: one hundred percent. They can let on all they want

514
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,679
Speaker 5: that he's perfectly fine, but they were even in that

515
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 5: game Joe there like this average step of target was

516
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 5: completely lower than it was all year. He wasn't taking

517
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 5: a lot of shots. Maybe they were just trying to

518
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 5: get through the motions and get that win and cleanse

519
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:20,880
Speaker 5: out division. But I don't think he's one hundred percent,

520
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 5: and I think that could be a big factor in

521
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:24,199
Speaker 5: the Giants cover Freedman.

522
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,879
Speaker 3: To me, he's point there about potentially, you know, bringing

523
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 3: that run game using Saquon and that you know, slowing

524
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 3: down the pace. Does that put that forty eight, you know,

525
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 3: the over on that forty eight really in trouble potentially.

526
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 6: Yeah, maybe I'm not really that high on that that

527
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,959
Speaker 6: total to begin with, all four totals this week, I

528
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:47,880
Speaker 6: have projected pretty close to where they are. So this

529
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:50,400
Speaker 6: is forty eight. I have it at forty seven point three.

530
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 6: You know, I lean a little more towards the under,

531
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 6: but I doubt I'm gonna be betting it. It is

532
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,919
Speaker 6: a it's a weird situation where last week that was

533
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,159
Speaker 6: the first real week where if you were on the

534
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 6: over you did very well. That's the first time this year.

535
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 6: And you know, maybe it's just a weird, a weird

536
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,360
Speaker 6: fluke something with the playoffs, maybe uh, referees holding onto

537
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,959
Speaker 6: the whistle a little bit more, whatever it is. You know,

538
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,440
Speaker 6: So I kind of don't want to be betting all

539
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,640
Speaker 6: that much on the totals when I feel like there's

540
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:22,159
Speaker 6: a little bit of uncertainty with the scoring environment, so

541
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 6: I will probably be staying away from that. And and

542
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 6: to Meeti's point about liking the giants in this spot,

543
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 6: historically it's a little bit different because you know, we

544
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 6: had Week eighteen and now only one team coming off

545
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 6: of the buye. But historically in the divisional round, when

546
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 6: you've had two teams coming off of the buye, they're rested,

547
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 6: they're at home, they're you know, the quote unquote better team,

548
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:47,159
Speaker 6: a higher seeded team, so they should be favored anyway. Historically,

549
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:50,239
Speaker 6: with all of those things pointing towards the favorite, the

550
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 6: underdogs have done very well. And so it is a

551
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:57,879
Speaker 6: situation we have this Saturday number one seed, big favorite

552
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 6: at home, very rested. Like I feel a little bit

553
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,719
Speaker 6: dirty being on both favorites in this spot because like

554
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 6: I'm going against the teeth of history here.

555
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 3: And that was kind of my point to the weekend games,

556
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 3: which is why I said the giants of the money

557
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 3: line on the Saturday Sunday afternoon because to me, that

558
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 3: was the clear like, look, you have to find somebody

559
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 3: who's gonna go win on the road one of these games.

560
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,199
Speaker 3: It probably wasn't gonna be the Dolphins. That was a

561
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 3: tough selle, you know, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers obviously. You know, gosh,

562
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,679
Speaker 3: that's the whole other set of circumstances there. But you know,

563
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 3: but you're one hundred percent right, All four of the

564
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,920
Speaker 3: favorites typically do not win. We see this, you know,

565
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 3: not very often where we get the two one seeds

566
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 3: in the Super Bowl. Let's just put it that way.

567
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 3: It typically does not happen. They don't all get there.

568
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 3: Uh So, a lot to digest, you're allowed to think

569
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 3: about in a lot of bets to play, So make

570
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,400
Speaker 3: sure you do using betting pros app it is out there,

571
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:52,199
Speaker 3: it's available for you, and don't forget make sure you

572
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,120
Speaker 3: throw a comment on the video on the YouTube channel

573
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 3: if you're watching there, or just run over there and

574
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 3: do it yourself there and that way. At bettingpros dot com,

575
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 3: slash upgrade and get your upgrades. You also get registered

576
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,359
Speaker 3: to get a free upgrade as well. That's smarter, not harder.

577
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 3: That's the idea. So what we're trying to do here,

578
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 3: So I want to thank our guests here on the show.

579
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 3: Matthew Friedman contract we obligated, but Chris Meani who came.

580
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 1: On your own volition. So follow him on the Twitter.

581
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 3: Machine at Chris Meani and check him out on mean

582
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:21,120
Speaker 3: streets over at FTN. Always great talking to my friend.

583
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 3: Great to see you. That'll do it for us.

584
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: The story of the game goes on for Matt and Chris.

585
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids,