1 00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:04,480 Speaker 1: Welcome to Zero. I am Akshadarrati. This week Tesla's road 2 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: to irrelevance. There's a lot to say about Tesla. It's 3 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:24,919 Speaker 1: the world's most valuable auto company, and it's a big 4 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: player in the electric vehicle market, and of course it's 5 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: run by a loud man with a talent for provocation. 6 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 1: Elon Musk is always in the news and so is Tesla. 7 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 1: But on this episode we want to take a step 8 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:42,479 Speaker 1: away from the spectacle and look more closely at Tesla, 9 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,159 Speaker 1: the business and its role in putting us all in 10 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: electric cars. The transition to electric vehicles is fully in motion. 11 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: Global EV sales in the last six years have risen 12 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 1: from two million to fourteen million. Meanwhile, Tesla is moving 13 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 1: away from producing low cost electric vehicles and signaling that 14 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 1: it wants to be an AI company, not a car company. 15 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 1: So what's really going on? And at this point, if 16 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 1: Tesla doesn't succeed, would it be catastrophic for the transition 17 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 1: to electric vehicles or would it not matter? To answer 18 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: those questions, I talk to someone whose columns I read 19 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 1: to try to make sense of Tesla. Bloomberg Opinion columnist 20 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 1: Liam Denning has been following the company's fortunes For quite 21 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:33,040 Speaker 1: some time. We talked about Tesla's latest pivot away from 22 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: cheaper evs, it's long promised robotaxis, and where in the 23 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: world Tesla still remains vital. Liam, Welcome to the show. 24 00:01:57,920 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 2: Thank you for having me. 25 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:02,559 Speaker 1: Now, Liam, let's just start with the bare bones story 26 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: of Tesla. But Elon Musk first became an investor in 27 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 1: the company in two thousand and four and then took 28 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 1: over a CEO in two thousand and eight. At the start, 29 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 1: he focused on making a luxury sedan for Tesla, sort 30 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:17,799 Speaker 1: of get the cool factor, but his long term plan 31 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 1: was always to use that cool factor to try and 32 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: make a mass market EV So now we're a decade 33 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 1: into that era. What has happened is that other auto 34 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 1: companies have taken a queue from Tesla and have gotten 35 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:37,440 Speaker 1: into the EV game. So Tesla is now fighting two tides. One, 36 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 1: the demand for EV's is not growing as fast as 37 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 1: it was in the past, and two, buyers on the 38 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 1: market now have more choices, not just Tesla, and that 39 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:53,239 Speaker 1: means in the short term Tesla has lower profits, it's 40 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: missing sales goals, and its share price is falling. That 41 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:03,399 Speaker 1: has made you know, unmask me series of dramatic decisions recently, 42 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 1: could you just drop us through what they are and 43 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:07,080 Speaker 1: why they matter. 44 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:11,080 Speaker 3: So this is really a story of the last eighteen 45 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 3: months or so, and what we've seen happen is sales 46 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 3: of Tesla evs have slowed quite a bit, culminating in 47 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 3: the rather shocking dropping sales in the first quarter. And 48 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:26,360 Speaker 3: this has been going on against the background of Tesla 49 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 3: actually cutting the prices of its vehicles to move them. 50 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 3: And this is a problem that is actually fairly familiar 51 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 3: to the Legacy also his business. Right, they're constantly battling 52 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 3: with low margins, inventory building up, the need to discount sales, 53 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 3: missing sales targets, that sort of thing. The difficulty is 54 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 3: the Legacy automakers trade at something like you know, five, six, 55 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 3: seven times earnings, whereas Tessa's more like fifty times earnings. 56 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 3: So Tesla needs a growth story and that growth story 57 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 3: has just become less and less credible over the past 58 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 3: eighteen months. And I think that is why we've seen 59 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 3: the story shift or the narrative around the stock, and 60 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 3: particularly coming from Elon Musk himself, shifting much more heavily 61 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 3: in favor of this idea of vehicle autonomy, robotaxis shorthand, 62 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:28,679 Speaker 3: and this event that has suddenly been announced for August 63 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:32,160 Speaker 3: eighth with a quote unquote ROBOTAXI reveal. Now, this is 64 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:34,039 Speaker 3: not to say that that story wasn't out there for 65 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:36,359 Speaker 3: a long time. I think anyone who's followed this company 66 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 3: over the years knows that Elon Musk has set a 67 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 3: goal after goal, deadline after deadline when it comes to robotaxes, 68 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 3: and you know they've all been missed. So it's been 69 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 3: out there for a while. But right now, given the 70 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 3: pressure on the core ev business, the robotaxing narrative is 71 00:04:55,720 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 3: even more central to maintaining tells US valuation, right, So take. 72 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 1: It one by one. You talked about how Tesla share 73 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: trades at a multiple that's way higher now you know 74 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: for people who don't follow business news day in and 75 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:12,679 Speaker 1: day out. You know, price to earnings ratio is something 76 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 1: that investors use as a shorthand to make decisions about 77 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:18,479 Speaker 1: which company to invest in or which company to pull 78 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: money out of. And so we have some numbers to 79 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 1: play with. Exon Mobile, pretty profitable all company right now 80 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 1: trades at fifteen in its PE ratio whereas Apple or Microsoft, 81 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,160 Speaker 1: which are big tech giants, and with Microsoft having this 82 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,239 Speaker 1: sort of AI push, they trade at thirty and thirty seven. 83 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:44,480 Speaker 1: Tesla trades at forty five, and that's after its stock 84 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:47,039 Speaker 1: price has fallen quite a bit this year. And so 85 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 1: you're saying that people want to believe the story of 86 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 1: a growth market for Tesla. Well, Microsoft has a growth 87 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 1: market in its AI business. So what is the growth 88 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: story here that it's going to be both a car 89 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 1: company that will outsell every other EV company and that 90 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 1: will be an EA company that will upsell every EA company. 91 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 3: H The answer to that is yes, it's all of 92 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:15,359 Speaker 3: it right. Part of the issue with Tesla is that 93 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 3: the valuation has been so high for so long, you know, 94 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 3: and if you go back not so long ago, the 95 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 3: company was valued at one point two trillion dollars. There 96 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 3: is a whole cottage industry out there that revolves around 97 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 3: backfilling Tesla's valuation with kind of pieces of a jigsaw 98 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 3: puzzle to justify it. What's really interesting for me has 99 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,479 Speaker 3: been to watch how the EV bit of that, the 100 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 3: business of actually making and selling or leasing evs, how 101 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 3: that has shrunk in importance over time. I'll give you 102 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 3: an example. You know, I was recently reading a celsid 103 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 3: analyst report. Their base case valuation is a trillion dollars, 104 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:02,040 Speaker 3: you know, roughly double where the market cap is today. 105 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:07,160 Speaker 3: Of that selling EV's less than six percent of the 106 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 3: mooted valuation robotaxis, which is a term that can mean 107 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 3: a bunch of different things. I'm going off the top 108 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 3: of my head here, but it was something like six 109 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 3: hundred and something billion dollars. It was. It was more 110 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:23,080 Speaker 3: than half the valuation, more than the entire current market 111 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 3: cap of the company. And what I put this down 112 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 3: to is, when you're buying Tesla, Yes, you're buying an 113 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 3: EV business that has grown, you know, incredibly well from nothing, 114 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 3: which is no small feat. But what you're also buying 115 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 3: is kind of an option on whatever is in Elon 116 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 3: Musk's head that day. You know, is he going to 117 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 3: reinvent the car as a self driving robotaxi? Is he 118 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 3: going to invent a humanoid robot? 119 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 2: Is he going. 120 00:07:55,040 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 3: To transform global grids with giant utility scale batteries? Those 121 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 3: pieces shift around in importance, but they always seem to 122 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 3: support a kind of a notional value of several hundred 123 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 3: billion dollars. 124 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: And this is the problem with Tesla. If you start 125 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 1: talking about the company, we have to talk about Elon, 126 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 1: and we have to talk about these wild ideas that 127 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 1: keep cropping up, either from Tesla or most of the 128 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 1: time from Elon. But let's try and focus on the 129 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 1: EV business because today Tesla is mostly an EV business. 130 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 2: It's ninety percent of the gross profit. 131 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 1: And as an EV company or as an auto company, 132 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 1: there are many unusual things even then. So most auto companies, 133 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:45,080 Speaker 1: whether they're mature or starting out, have a pipeline of 134 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 1: models that they'll be working on because customers have different demands, 135 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:54,680 Speaker 1: different markets have different demands. Tesla right now does not 136 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 1: have anything in the pipeline, So why should we even 137 00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: take it seriously as an auto company? 138 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 2: To start? 139 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 3: Well, to clarify it, the company says it does have 140 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 3: some products coming. I think where there is an issue 141 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 3: is that it's very vague as to what those are, 142 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 3: and it put them out with its first quarter announcement, 143 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:17,079 Speaker 3: but then basically said. 144 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:18,839 Speaker 2: It wouldn't offer many details on what they were. 145 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 3: But just parking that to one side, I think the 146 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 3: reason it's taken seriously as a car maker is it 147 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 3: pulled off something amazing, right, brand new car company in 148 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 3: an industry that famously just you know, destroys hope, destroys profits, 149 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 3: destroys capital. And they didn't just start a car company. 150 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 3: They started a car company running on an entirely new 151 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,959 Speaker 3: drive train, right, and had to build out a charging 152 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 3: network to go with it, and had to convince people 153 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 3: that it was actually fine and cool to drive an 154 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 3: EV And I think that has built up a lot 155 00:09:57,360 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 3: of good will. 156 00:09:58,120 --> 00:09:58,320 Speaker 2: You know. 157 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 3: I will say I was skeptical of Tesla in the 158 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 3: early days. They burned capital for a long time, and 159 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 3: you know, they turned it into a profitable business, not 160 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 3: a business I think that is worth what the market 161 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 3: says it's worth. But they did it, and I think 162 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 3: that's a huge achievement, and the market takes them seriously 163 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 3: for that. However, as you point out, they don't have 164 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 3: a great pipeline. It's been years since they launched a 165 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:30,599 Speaker 3: truly new product, leaving aside the cyber truck, which was 166 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 3: launched late last year, in which I think, even if 167 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 3: we leave aside all the issues that have been reported 168 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:40,840 Speaker 3: with it, it's going to be a niche, expensive product. 169 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 3: But in terms of a mass market or mass market 170 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 3: ish product. Yeah, we haven't seen anything for years, and 171 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 3: this industry thrives on new products. 172 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 1: After the break the difference between the American ebie market 173 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 1: and the demand for e everywhere else. And by the way, 174 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 1: if you're enjoying the show, please take a moment to 175 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 1: rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 176 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 1: It helps other listeners find it for the EV transition. 177 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 1: You want affordable evs. So the model too, if again 178 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 1: we are to believe reports before it was canceled, could 179 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 1: have been a twenty five thousand dollars EV. 180 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 2: In that price. 181 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:35,959 Speaker 1: Point, there really isn't anything available. And if you did 182 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,720 Speaker 1: get a twenty five thousand dollars EV, credible analysis shows 183 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,439 Speaker 1: that would change the EV game, that would really accelerate 184 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: in the US. In the US, So, now that there 185 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:51,680 Speaker 1: is no model too, does it matter or will somebody 186 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 1: else pick up the slack? 187 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:56,199 Speaker 3: I think if Tesla has abandoned the model too, and 188 00:11:56,360 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 3: it certainly seems like it's been pushed back indefinitely, that 189 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 3: is a big deal because, you know, think about what 190 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:08,240 Speaker 3: the story was before. 191 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 2: All these events happened. 192 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 3: The story was Tesla is bringing this car to market 193 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:16,960 Speaker 3: and it's going to underpin the next phase of growth 194 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:20,240 Speaker 3: in EV demand. You know, you go back and look 195 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 3: at the sales figures for evs in the US over 196 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 3: the past decade or so, every step up in demand 197 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 3: has always coincided with the launch of a new Tesla EV, the. 198 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 2: S, the three, the Y. 199 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 3: So it matters hugely that Tesla was going to do this, 200 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 3: not just that it was going to expand the total 201 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 3: addressable market in the US, but it was also, as 202 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:45,360 Speaker 3: it has done over time, it was going to force 203 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 3: other auto makers to up their game and try to 204 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:54,560 Speaker 3: do this. Without that, there you're left with a market 205 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 3: in the US that is still very weighted to the 206 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 3: premium end of things. You've got slightly less pressure on 207 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:07,719 Speaker 3: the legacy auto makers to up their game, and there 208 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:10,320 Speaker 3: is a danger. You know, I live in the US 209 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 3: and you're surrounded by trucks and heavy SUVs, which is 210 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 3: just awful to electrify. And unless you get a compelling 211 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 3: product or set of products that make people rethink their choices, 212 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 3: then you're gonna have a much slower transition. 213 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 2: In the US. 214 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 1: And I think the numbers also bear your case, which 215 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 1: is in the US Tesla is still half the market 216 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 1: for evs. You know, Tesla also is half the market 217 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 1: for all the superchargers, and so what happens to Tesla 218 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:42,559 Speaker 1: really does matter to. 219 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 2: The EV story in the US. 220 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, at one point, the US was 221 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 1: the biggest auto market in the world, and what the 222 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 1: US did really matter to the rest of the world. 223 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: But now let's just look at the rest of the world. 224 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:56,960 Speaker 2: So the US is. 225 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 1: About a fifth of the global market, but in EV terms, 226 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 1: US is twelve percent of the global market. Eighty eight 227 00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 1: percent of evs are sold outside of the US, and 228 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:12,440 Speaker 1: most of those evs are Chinese EV's. You know, if 229 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 1: we wanted to go back to the birth of EV 230 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 1: as a mass market vehicle, of course, that Tesla story 231 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:22,960 Speaker 1: is key because it made the EV cool. But the 232 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:26,160 Speaker 1: Chinese were also starting to do their own thing where 233 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: they wanted to create an entire industry, and they started 234 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 1: even before Tesla really made any vehicle. And so would 235 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 1: it matter to the rest of the world if Tesla 236 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 1: doesn't succeed, I think much less than in the US, 237 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:43,440 Speaker 1: you know, And. 238 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 3: I think, going back to the very start of our conversation, 239 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 3: the fact that Tesla's core EV business is struggling in 240 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 3: terms of growth and margins, is in some respects a 241 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 3: testament to the fact that competition has grown, right, because 242 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 3: if they didn't have to compete, then they wouldn't have 243 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 3: to cut prices, they wouldn't be worrying about shifting inventory 244 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 3: and that sort of thing. And I think, you know, 245 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 3: the market share figures tell you that story. Yes, in 246 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 3: the US still roughly half the market or thereabouts, but China, 247 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 3: Europe it's much lower. And so, you know, I tend 248 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 3: to think about these things in terms of their escape velocity, 249 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 3: and clearly in China EV's have reached it an escape velocity. 250 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 3: Europe probably though to less of a degree. The US, 251 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 3: I think the jury is still you know, very much 252 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 3: out it's still a growing market, and it's still you know, 253 00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 3: sales that are much bigger than they were. But I 254 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 3: think the sense of angst about EV's in general in 255 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 3: the US is palpable. 256 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 1: And you recently went to Norway. Now Norwi is e 257 00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 1: eighty five percent ev sales already on an annual piesis 258 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 1: What was it like? Well, it hit me. 259 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 3: I hadn't been to Norway for about twenty years, and 260 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 3: the first thing you noticed I landed at Bergen Airport 261 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 3: and you come out and of course the taxi rank 262 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 3: is entirely electric. I think the thing that really struck 263 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 3: me though, was the breadth of models. So, you know, 264 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 3: put it this way, I drive an electric vehicle. Back 265 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 3: in the States, I can tell it a Tesla. It 266 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 3: is not a Tesla. But it's funny you say that, 267 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 3: because that is the first thing everyone says. You know, 268 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 3: you said, so I've got an EV. They say, oh, 269 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 3: is it a Tesla? And because in the States, Tesla 270 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 3: is just equated with the whole. 271 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 2: Idea of having an EV. 272 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 3: Whereas when I got to Bergen, there were you know, 273 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 3: there were there were Tesla's, absolutely, but there were Fords, 274 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 3: there were Skodas. You felt much more a sense of 275 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 3: a diverse ecosystem of evs there than I do back 276 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 3: around New York, where most of the EV's I see 277 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 3: are still tesla's. If you were to take a ball case, 278 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 3: which is to say, let's figure out that Tesla has 279 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 3: started itself out, has found a way to make things happen, 280 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,920 Speaker 3: brought in a cheap vehicle, maybe even brought in a 281 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 3: robotaxi and Elin is acting like a chief executive officer 282 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:18,919 Speaker 3: of a major company, you're. 283 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 2: Assuming a lot there. 284 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 1: What would that do to the EV transition that is 285 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 1: not happening today. 286 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 3: I think, well, you know, there's some practical things, So 287 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 3: if you if you did get a cheaper Tesla EV, 288 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 3: I think that would unlock another segment of the market, 289 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 3: definitely in the US, probably in Europe as well, particularly 290 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 3: if it still had all the or a lot of 291 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 3: the bells and whistles that people associate with Tesla's on 292 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:48,320 Speaker 3: the on the kind of the software and user interface side, 293 00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 3: and the performance. I think in the US in particular, 294 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:57,240 Speaker 3: it would maybe alay some of the fears that have 295 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,080 Speaker 3: spread to other aspects of the Tesla story, particularly you 296 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:05,880 Speaker 3: know the recent firing of the supercharger division, where it's 297 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 3: just very disconcerting. I think for everyone who is invested 298 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:15,399 Speaker 3: in evs in the US to see a vital bit 299 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:18,880 Speaker 3: of infrastructure like that, you know, not necessarily cast aside, 300 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 3: because he Musk himself was very quick to say, oh, 301 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:23,919 Speaker 3: we're still investing in them, But to think of that 302 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 3: being in doubt at this stage of the transition is 303 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 3: I think very worrying. 304 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 2: I think it. 305 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 3: Would also provide a shot in the arm for industry sentiment, 306 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,399 Speaker 3: again mainly in the US, but I think also in 307 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:46,200 Speaker 3: Europe as well, where you know, as I'm sure you're 308 00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 3: aware the sense of gloom around evs, which I think 309 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:53,400 Speaker 3: began to kick in mostly around the fall last year 310 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 3: and has intensified earlier this year, it would give people 311 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:01,199 Speaker 3: a sense that there is a next leg of growth coming. 312 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 3: There is still innovation here, very importantly. You know, you 313 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,679 Speaker 3: get a twenty five thousand dollar EV you're pretty much 314 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 3: at that level where you know BNF has those charts 315 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 3: where the lines about cost of ownership of ice and 316 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 3: EV vehicles cross, and you'd be forcing the industry to 317 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 3: up its game to get there as well, I think 318 00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:25,240 Speaker 3: in the US as well, and this is very particular 319 00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 3: to the US, there is a political angle to this. 320 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:33,360 Speaker 3: I think if Tesla is seen to be failing in evs, 321 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:37,960 Speaker 3: because the brand is so synonymous with electric vehicles in 322 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 3: the US, and also because of the way the energy 323 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 3: transition has become part of the US kind of culture wars, 324 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:48,879 Speaker 3: there is a sort of grotesque delight taken by certain 325 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 3: elements of the political class if anything connected with the 326 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 3: energy transition struggles or fails, and I think Tesla in 327 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 3: some ways would be kind of a white whale of that. 328 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:01,920 Speaker 3: It would be like a million times bigger than Cylindra. 329 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 3: And remember we aren't talking about necessarily, you know, Tesla 330 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 3: going bankrupt or Tesla, you know, being liquidated, nothing like that. 331 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,399 Speaker 3: I mean, going back to the start of our conversation, 332 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 3: my issue with Tesla is not that it's going to 333 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:19,439 Speaker 3: fail as an enterprise. 334 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 2: It's just that it's over valued. 335 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, and to my mind, even if the stock fell 336 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 3: by half, we would still be talking about a company 337 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:32,240 Speaker 3: valued at a quarter of a trillion dollars or more. However, 338 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:36,440 Speaker 3: I think for Musk personally, I think for the kind 339 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,159 Speaker 3: of the Transition project as a whole, that would be 340 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,159 Speaker 3: seen as a big blow and it would certainly be 341 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 3: capitalized upon politically by opponents of the transition right. And 342 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 3: you said, a failure of Tesla would look a million 343 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:51,639 Speaker 3: times like Cylinder. For those who don't know about the 344 00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 3: Cylinder story, it was a solar company that got a 345 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 3: loan from the US government during the financial crisis or 346 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 3: just after, and it went bankrupt, was not able to 347 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 3: repay the loan, and that was taken by the right 348 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 3: wing politicians but also press as a failure of. 349 00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 1: The energy transition. So now let's flip the story. A 350 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:14,240 Speaker 1: catastrophic failure of Tesla is not going to be no 351 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 1: cars are sold. Somebody built by something and make something 352 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:24,439 Speaker 1: out of it. But what would not change if that 353 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,119 Speaker 1: were to happen. What in the ev transition wouldn't be 354 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:29,520 Speaker 1: affected if Tesla were to go south? 355 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 3: I mean, I think on the most basic level, the 356 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:37,200 Speaker 3: investments made to date would still be there, right, including 357 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:40,719 Speaker 3: all the investments made by Tesla itself, battery plants that 358 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,439 Speaker 3: have been built or are being built in the US 359 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:48,639 Speaker 3: federal climate legislation, with a bevy of subsidies to build 360 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,399 Speaker 3: up the supply chain, a lot of which is focused 361 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 3: on batteries and evs. The idea of evs being a mainstream, 362 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 3: ordinary vehicle, which I think exists psychologically at different levels 363 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 3: around the world, but certainly in the US, or at 364 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:10,439 Speaker 3: least the part of the US where I live, and 365 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 3: other states as well. You know, evs aren't seen as 366 00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:16,679 Speaker 3: crazy anymore. They're not even seen as unusual. I mean, 367 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 3: I see Marquis Mustang. 368 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 2: Cop cars patrolling New York. 369 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 3: I mean, which I think even ten years ago might 370 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 3: have seemed a bit outlandish, but now seems quite ordinary, 371 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 3: and I think that is important. But most of all, 372 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:35,879 Speaker 3: I think the fact that you're seeing a mixture of 373 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:42,159 Speaker 3: commercial and government support for evs around the world and 374 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 3: in markets that collectively are bigger than the US, that's 375 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,320 Speaker 3: not going to go away. I think a setback for 376 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:59,440 Speaker 3: Tesla would certainly catch the attention of policymakers and competitors, 377 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:04,439 Speaker 3: and there would, I think, be some negative fallout, But 378 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:09,240 Speaker 3: I think there's enough critical mass that it just doesn't 379 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 3: feel to me like everyone would suddenly say, oh, well, 380 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:12,160 Speaker 3: this isn't. 381 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 2: Going to work now. Yeah. 382 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,159 Speaker 3: And I think also we have to think about the 383 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 3: autos industry in general, which is, let's be honest, mostly 384 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 3: a history of failure. 385 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:22,120 Speaker 2: Right, you know, you go back one. 386 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 3: Hundred years, is like, I know what the figure is, 387 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 3: like two thousand US car manufacturers and you end up 388 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,359 Speaker 3: with three dominant ones over time. 389 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 1: And it's the same thing with EV's in China. You know, 390 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 1: four hundred and fifty EV makers at one point and 391 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 1: now you have a few dozen, right. 392 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:42,560 Speaker 3: So there are no guarantees in industry and companies that 393 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,280 Speaker 3: pioneer things sometimes do fail or they end up in 394 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 3: a much smaller role than we all imagine them to 395 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,520 Speaker 3: have during their heyday. But I don't think it necessarily 396 00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:51,680 Speaker 3: means the whole industry just. 397 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 1: Goes away in the energy transition. I do think of 398 00:23:56,119 --> 00:24:00,360 Speaker 1: my dad as a very interesting character because he lives 399 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:03,960 Speaker 1: in India. No, he has some money, not that he 400 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: can go out and splurge on a Tesla. 401 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 2: For example. 402 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 1: He's been thinking about EV's for a few years now, 403 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 1: but every year we sit down and we go through 404 00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,920 Speaker 1: models that he has access to in India, and he's like, nah, 405 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 1: it's still a little too expensive for me. So when 406 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,160 Speaker 1: he flips and when he ends up buying an EV 407 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 1: to me is when it really becomes a mass market product. 408 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,919 Speaker 1: And so maybe that coincides with the twenty five thousand 409 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 1: dollars Tesla coming in the US and he gets a 410 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 1: ten thousand dollars electric car that is cool in India. 411 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 1: But that hasn't happened. 412 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:44,440 Speaker 3: Yet, No, And I think, you know, in a lot 413 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 3: of the US, you have to remember that part of 414 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 3: the reason the gasoline demand in the US is so 415 00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:55,360 Speaker 3: high is because obviously Americans drive further than in most 416 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:59,680 Speaker 3: other places, and they tend to drive heavier, less fuel 417 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:08,040 Speaker 3: fish and vehicles and part of changing that, particularly in 418 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 3: a place like the US, where government policy will only 419 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,040 Speaker 3: take you so far, you have to get Americans to 420 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,919 Speaker 3: literally buy into something, right if you're going to change it. 421 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 3: So you really have to tempt people with affordable and 422 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:26,679 Speaker 3: useful products. And I think what Tesla achieved was that 423 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 3: it at least got the EV to the point in 424 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:36,359 Speaker 3: the US where people thought it was useful and desirable, right. 425 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 3: But I think to get to the next phase of 426 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 3: growth and to take EV's truly mainstream, and importantly, I 427 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:49,200 Speaker 3: think to get them to the point where the legacy 428 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 3: vehicle makers really feel less afraid to let go of 429 00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:58,960 Speaker 3: their older businesses, you've got to. 430 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 2: Have more of a mass market product. 431 00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:03,560 Speaker 3: It's going to be hard to make that a truck 432 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 3: or a heavy suv that is cost competitive. So you've 433 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,679 Speaker 3: got to at least get something out there that is 434 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 3: cool and attractive and isn't going to cost two times 435 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 3: you know, average income or whatever. In order to have 436 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,119 Speaker 3: a piece of it, it's got to feel like something 437 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,880 Speaker 3: that's as normal as walking into the lot and buying 438 00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,480 Speaker 3: you know, a Honda Civic or a. 439 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:31,400 Speaker 2: Honda Record or or a Toyota Rav four. Something like that. 440 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,160 Speaker 1: Well, Let's hope Tesla figues out a way to do that. 441 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 1: And if Tesla doesn't, let's hope another automaker does well. 442 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:47,520 Speaker 1: Thanks Liam, Thank you, thank you for listening to Zero. 443 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 1: If you like this episode, please take a moment to 444 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:53,200 Speaker 1: read or review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. 445 00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,679 Speaker 1: Share this episode with a friend or with someone who 446 00:26:56,760 --> 00:27:00,720 Speaker 1: has had an awkward encounter with a robotaxi. You can 447 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,480 Speaker 1: get in touch at Zero pod at Bloomberg dot Net. 448 00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:07,680 Speaker 1: Zero's producer is Mighty le Rau. Bloomberg's head of podcast 449 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:10,760 Speaker 1: is Sage Bauman, and head of Talk is Brandon Nunan. 450 00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:14,879 Speaker 1: Our theme music is composed by Wonderley Special thanks to 451 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:21,040 Speaker 1: Kirra Bindram, Alsia Clanton, Craig Ruddell, and annamazarakus I am Akshatrati, 452 00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 1: Max