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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Goulnar Montevali joined us. The title is Bloomberg News Middle

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Speaker 2: East Reporter. But there is no one I know with

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Speaker 2: an encyclopedic understanding of her Iran as Goulner Montevali. We

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Speaker 2: could speak for an hour this morning. We have precious minutes. Goulner,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us. The distance from

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Speaker 2: Tehran south to Isfan. Describe the state that you perceive

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Speaker 2: of Iran down a road to that UNESCO heritage site

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Speaker 2: south of Tehran.

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Speaker 3: That's such a kind of incredible, painful, urgent question, and

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Speaker 3: thank you for your introduction. I wish I could be

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Speaker 3: there is the straightforward answer to be able to tell

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Speaker 3: you exactly, you know. I think one of the most

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Speaker 3: frustrating aspects of obviously the job of covering Iran is

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Speaker 3: just the lack of access when you're there. It's difficult

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Speaker 3: to you know, move around when you're not there, Obviously,

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Speaker 3: we have to deal with things like internet shutdowns at

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Speaker 3: a time of war, which makes it incredibly difficult. But

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Speaker 3: from the footage that I have seen online from people

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Speaker 3: that I've been in touch with, whether they're friends or

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Speaker 3: family or contacts, the bombardment has been from what I

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Speaker 3: can understand, pretty relentless around Tehran, at least around the capital,

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Speaker 3: particularly over the past two to three days. And during

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Speaker 3: that time, obviously we saw them multiple hits on the

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Speaker 3: oil depots in the different corners surrounding the center of Tehran,

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Speaker 3: and if you go further south, as you mentioned, to Svahan,

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Speaker 3: a city I know intimately well, we've also seen bomb

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Speaker 3: strikes just outside one of the country's biggest UNESCO World

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Speaker 3: Heritage sites. It's a six hundred year old palace with

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Speaker 3: two extremely distinguished mosques. So it's hard to watch, and yeah,

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Speaker 3: we just have to see what happened.

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Speaker 2: Gonner, I'm going to editorialize that people like me are

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Speaker 2: doing sophomore coverage of this.

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Speaker 4: You're the adult in the room.

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Speaker 2: Describe the administration and President Trump's simplicity and the press

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Speaker 2: conferences of the Secretary of Defense versus a structure that

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Speaker 2: includes the IRGC, the Rtese Regular Army, the Supreme National

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Speaker 2: Security Council, the General stam of the Armed Forces, and

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Speaker 2: then within the theocracy, the judiciary in the Guardian Council.

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Speaker 2: Do we take too simplistic the complexities that will support

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Speaker 2: the people of Iran?

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Speaker 5: I think so.

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Speaker 3: I think on the one hand, it's interesting you mentioned

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Speaker 3: you talk about that kind of sort of the two sides.

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Speaker 3: They're this sort of binary situation we have, and in

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Speaker 3: some ways, if you look at it very simply, these

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Speaker 3: are very two hard line factions in different countries fighting

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Speaker 3: each other. So in some ways it feels like a

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Speaker 3: kind of clash of the Titans, if you like, these

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Speaker 3: very kind of hardline, kind of ultra nationalist or on

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Speaker 3: the Iranian side, it's more of an ultra Islamist movement

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Speaker 3: clashing now after almost fifty years of animosity and hostility.

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Speaker 3: But I think there is possibly this idea that it's

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Speaker 3: easy for the people of Iran to kind of just

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Speaker 3: get some help and then themselves be able to just

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Speaker 3: push over the regime as if it's the last.

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Speaker 6: Domino that needs to fall.

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Speaker 3: And I think that's I think that's a very simple

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Speaker 3: analysis and understanding. If indeed that's the case. For the

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Speaker 3: past almost half half a century, the Islamic Republic has

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Speaker 3: spent a huge amount of resources and time entrenching itself

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Speaker 3: very deeply and creating what was very a very strong

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Speaker 3: nation state. And it's almost the kind of opposite situation

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Speaker 3: you had in Afghanistan and to an extent, in Iraq,

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Speaker 3: where the state institutions were generally quite weak and there

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Speaker 3: were smaller countries, much much smaller economies compared to Iran's.

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Speaker 3: This is a very different situation. The hardliners who are

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Speaker 3: in charge and now have actually consolidated their power even

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Speaker 3: further since Harmon's killing with the appointment of Harmone's son,

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Speaker 3: are holding on for as long as they can, and

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Speaker 3: they're going to hold on tightly to power because they

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Speaker 3: have a huge amount to lose in this tom.

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Speaker 7: Right, And that's exactly where I wanted to go Gonar

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Speaker 7: with this conversation. Because Iran has now named the son

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Speaker 7: of the late Ayatola as its new supreme leader, President

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Speaker 7: Trump has called him a lightweight. I wonder if we

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Speaker 7: get the same regime, but now with a much younger man.

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Speaker 7: He's fifty six years old, what might leadership look like

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Speaker 7: under him?

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Speaker 3: I think that's you're I think you're right. I think

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Speaker 3: that's quite accurate. It's going to be more of the same,

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Speaker 3: if not even possibly more hardline. There are things that

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Speaker 3: we don't know about much Tabah harmony, for instance, We

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Speaker 3: have no idea what his position is on Iran's nuclear program.

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Speaker 3: Is he going to renew the fatoa, that religious Islamic

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Speaker 3: edict that his father repeatedly issued against the development of

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Speaker 3: nuclear weapons in Iran? Or is he going to abandon that?

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Speaker 3: We don't know. Is he interested in going into a

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Speaker 3: North Korea style situation as maybe this war given him

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Speaker 3: a message as a sort of justification for actually going

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Speaker 3: ahead and trying to develop a nuclear weapon, because it's

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Speaker 3: such a it's proven to be such a strong deterrent

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Speaker 3: in the case of.

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Speaker 6: North Korea.

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Speaker 3: So there are lots of questions to be answered, but

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Speaker 3: definitely a more hardline regime.

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Speaker 2: Gonner quickly or we have to get to markets. Folks

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Speaker 2: with the Vics out at thirty one point eight zero,

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Speaker 2: Kim Dawson and Dex stay with us. Folks gone across

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Speaker 2: the Persian golf, the Arabian golf, whatever you want to

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Speaker 2: call it. What is the relation of the tribes of the.

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Speaker 4: Arab people with Persia.

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Speaker 2: Right now, what is the relationship of zay Ed Maktoom

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Speaker 2: and then those in Riad.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a deeply troubled relationship, to say the least.

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Speaker 3: I think they're very worried. I think a huge amount

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Speaker 3: of effort had been made in the past past five

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Speaker 3: or sixty to repair ties, to build bridges, rebuild bridges,

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Speaker 3: and those relationships, and I think all of that has

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Speaker 3: now obviously been you know, it's dashed. Iran is attacking

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Speaker 3: these countries because of the US and Israeli air strikes,

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Speaker 3: so unfortunately, I think a lot of that work is

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Speaker 3: now in pieces.

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Speaker 4: Gonor we have to dash. Thank you so much for

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Speaker 4: your time and our thoughts.

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Speaker 2: Some teams Surveillance to you and all of your family,

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Speaker 2: and I run as well, driving all of our Middle

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Speaker 2: East coverage gulner Montavali.

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Speaker 4: Stay with us.

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Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Cameron DAWs joins us non chief investment officer at Newage Wealth.

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Speaker 2: I just want you to talk for starters about the

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Speaker 2: gut feeling should I go to cash?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, well, certainly these kinds of events are extraordinarily jarring,

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Speaker 8: and the question of should I go to cash really

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Speaker 8: depends on time horizon. Even though we could certainly see

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Speaker 8: a further hit to valuations, we think that earning sestems

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Speaker 8: are too high, which certainly something we can discuss further.

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Speaker 8: There's a certain amount of volatility that we have to

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Speaker 8: see as a feature of equity markets and something that

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Speaker 8: maybe we've been lulled in a little bit of complacency

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Speaker 8: because we've been in these low volatility up into the

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Speaker 8: right kinds of markets. So it can be very jarring,

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Speaker 8: but not necessarily something that should knock people off their

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Speaker 8: long term strategic allocations.

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Speaker 7: So the old adages you buy on the dep This

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Speaker 7: is more than a dep But when do you know

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Speaker 7: it's right to get back in.

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Speaker 8: Well, I think it's interesting is that it hasn't been

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Speaker 8: much of a dip up until this point. As of

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Speaker 8: the clothes on Friday, we were only down three and

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Speaker 8: a half. And what's fascinating is let's say we test

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Speaker 8: the two hundred day moving average. That's only six percent

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Speaker 8: off of all time highs, and that's the function of

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Speaker 8: the fact that markets have been effectively sideways for the

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Speaker 8: last five months. So when we think about buying on

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Speaker 8: the dip, we measure a lot of things that we

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Speaker 8: run what's called a flush deck after them trading on

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Speaker 8: days like today, we measure things like percentage of names

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Speaker 8: above their fifty day, percentage of names at new twenty

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Speaker 8: day lows. We'll look at rsi's, We'll look at a

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Speaker 8: whole slew of technical measures, look at put call ratios,

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Speaker 8: the VIX, all to get a sense of where is

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Speaker 8: fear spiking in markets. And usually when fear spikes, that's

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Speaker 8: oftentimes an opportunity to have the bravery to step in

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Speaker 8: and to allocate, even if it's not the ultimate low,

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Speaker 8: you know, ford returns will improve.

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Speaker 7: What about where is the fear then, I mean, because

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Speaker 7: I'm wondering if the fear is widespread and panicky feeling

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Speaker 7: or is it more in sort of the energy sectors.

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Speaker 8: Well, we haven't seen fear spike yet, maybe this morning,

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Speaker 8: given the fact that we're seeing the VIX higher. But

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Speaker 8: if you look at broad measures of feury, you're really

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Speaker 8: not seeing it across markets. You still have markets trading

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Speaker 8: at twenty times forward. You're still having earning estimates that

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Speaker 8: are at fourteen percent growth for twenty six and twenty

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Speaker 8: twenty seven. So there's still a fairly high bar for

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Speaker 8: things to go very right for this market. So we'll

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Speaker 8: continue to monitor things like indiscriminate selling. What you want

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Speaker 8: to see in that backup, the truck moment is effectively

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Speaker 8: people throwing the baby out with the bathwater. But this

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Speaker 8: process really probably is just getting started, meaning the fact

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Speaker 8: that we haven't seen any estimate cuts whatsoever to EPs.

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Speaker 8: You still have GDP growth that expected at two and

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Speaker 8: a half percent, and if oil remains elevated, doesn't have

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Speaker 8: to stay at one hundred dollars a barrel, but still

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Speaker 8: somewhat elevated. I don't think that we'll be growing GDP

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Speaker 8: at two and a half percent now.

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Speaker 7: Something tells me we we might not so, But of course,

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Speaker 7: the backdrop to all of this is private credit markets. Yeah,

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Speaker 7: and how much of that is a canary in the

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Speaker 7: coal mine for investors who now seem very focused on

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Speaker 7: what's at hand right, which is what's happening in around So.

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Speaker 8: When we think about private credit, we have to separate

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Speaker 8: and they're intertwined. But there are two very distinct risks

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Speaker 8: with private credit. The headline risk, which deals with liquidity

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Speaker 8: and demand for outlaws outflows, and then you have the

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Speaker 8: risk of the actual underlying portfolios. And up to this point,

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Speaker 8: it's really been about concerns about headline risks that have

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Speaker 8: hit private credit. This is morphing now into concern about

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Speaker 8: underlying portfolios because remember, these are loans made to more

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Speaker 8: levered companies that are typically so levered that they can't

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Speaker 8: get access to bank financing in other places, and you're

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Speaker 8: going into it with spreads arguably having been very tight.

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Speaker 8: So we think that this is morphing a little bit

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Speaker 8: more into a broader, a true risk off, versus just

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Speaker 8: the headline risk.

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Speaker 2: You know, Cameron, I sit here and I look at

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Speaker 2: the basic public like I'm looking at John Tucker.

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Speaker 4: John Tucker hit a two to oh one K.

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Speaker 2: The opening of the four to oh one K Envel

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Speaker 2: little bit was painful, and Tucker was brave. He participated

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Speaker 2: in the market. He's killing it. He's got a five

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Speaker 2: oh one K. We're expecting him to announce this, Johnny

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Speaker 2: announcing your retirement? Is it this month or next month?

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Speaker 2: Leave you no chance never? Okay, that's the way retail thinks.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Tucker personifies retail to vis thirty two point

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Speaker 2: zero four, Load the boat discuss.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 8: Look, fear as an individual investor can be a very

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Speaker 8: jarring and paralyzing kind of emotion, because when your own

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Speaker 8: fear spikes, that typically is a sign that you're going

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Speaker 8: to make a bad decision. But measuring fear and aggregate

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Speaker 8: what we argue is very illuminating. So the VIC spiking

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Speaker 8: suggests that fear is starting to percolate, hir. It's why

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Speaker 8: we also look at things like put call ratio. Are

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Speaker 8: people willing to pay whatever it takes for downshade?

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Speaker 4: You can see this morning. Retail's not walking away from

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Speaker 4: this market.

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Speaker 9: No.

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Speaker 8: I look at the Citadel data from January and February,

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Speaker 8: we saw record inflows into US equities, So retail has

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Speaker 8: been shrugging off a lot of risk and we are

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Speaker 8: going into this with record high allocations, which just suggests

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Speaker 8: that maybe there's some complacency in that retail positioning.

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Speaker 4: Alex, let's get one more in here.

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Speaker 7: If this is not a long drawn out situation with Iran.

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Speaker 7: If does this market bounce back, does oil bounce back?

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Speaker 6: Is it?

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Speaker 7: Does it spring back quickly? Or has so much damage

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Speaker 7: you've been done that it's going to take some time.

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Speaker 8: I think that oil can move off of its tides

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Speaker 8: if we see some d escalation, but it's very unlikely

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Speaker 8: that we return to the pre conflict lows simply because

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Speaker 8: there has been a lot of infrastructure kind of of

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Speaker 8: damage and you're going to have more of a geopolitical

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Speaker 8: risk premium that get kept in oil markets.

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Speaker 2: We'll sorry about the oil chat I've got today the folks,

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Speaker 2: but it's been very what we call stochastic, which is

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Speaker 2: like pointy tops, like we go up and we turn

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Speaker 2: right around and come back down.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I and everybody's been banking on that being how

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Speaker 8: this is going to play out, and I think it

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Speaker 8: very much remains to be seen if we can count

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Speaker 8: on that kind.

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Speaker 6: Of episodic up side.

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Speaker 4: Polished sore headline to your podcast as Cameron Daws'.

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Speaker 6: Has loaded the boat, not yet, don't put words on her.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much for New Edge Wealth Management. Really

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Speaker 2: really appreciate it.

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Speaker 4: Stay with us.

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Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us Live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Leslie Faulty Golsman inright with Energy Vista. Just opening question,

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Speaker 2: what are you studying within your encyclopedic.

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Speaker 5: Knowledge right now? With the conflict we're busy. I'm looking

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Speaker 5: at the potential disruption from Qatar, which is one of

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Speaker 5: the largest LG exporter, and any disruption at wrestleran.

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Speaker 10: It out cutor where we have our Bloomberg Economic Forum

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Speaker 10: frame it o Irians on the other side and it's

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Speaker 10: only like one hundred miles to Doha, right, So explain

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Speaker 10: the tension of a war with LNG tankers and cutter.

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Speaker 4: Yes.

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Speaker 5: So, for years, Iran and Katar have developed a cordial relationship,

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Speaker 5: strategic relationship based on pragmatism because they share a large field,

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Speaker 5: the world's largest gas field, and in order to produce

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Speaker 5: this field they need to have coordination joint management. So

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Speaker 5: there is an entant confidential agreement between Iran and Katar

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Speaker 5: to develop this field. Now that we have this conflict ongoing,

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Speaker 5: not only it raised new uncertainties for the expansion of

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Speaker 5: Katar lng G, which is ongoing and the world is

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Speaker 5: expecting it with anticipation to get cooler prices in two

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Speaker 5: years from now. And at the same time, we have

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Speaker 5: this uncertainty because nobody knows what comes next in Iran

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Speaker 5: and whether the new future Iranian government will honor this

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Speaker 5: arrangement that govern the joint field.

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Speaker 7: I want to ask a question I haven't really heard

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Speaker 7: a lot of people ask, and that is, are the

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Speaker 7: oil markets overreacting? And I ask that because now oil

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Speaker 7: is a much smaller part of GDP than it was

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Speaker 7: a few decades ago when we had the energy crisis

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Speaker 7: of the nineteen seventies, and also the US is the

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Speaker 7: world's largest oil producer, So why are we seeing the

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Speaker 7: reaction or maybe we should be seeing a more aggressive reaction.

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Speaker 7: But I'm asking you the expert.

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Speaker 5: So over the last summer, when we already had the

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Speaker 5: Twelfth Day War, we had a spike in prices and

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Speaker 5: then prices revert back rapidly. The duration of the conflict

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Speaker 5: we really impact, how long we'll see how your prices

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Speaker 5: on oil there are mitigation strategies that are going to

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Speaker 5: be developed fast. Even the US government right now announced

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Speaker 5: shipping like reinsurance for meriting because right now the problem

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Speaker 5: is the straight of hormous for oil. That's the biggest problem,

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Speaker 5: as well as some heating of infrastructure strikes on infrastructure

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Speaker 5: oil infrastructure. But the transit of the strait of Hormus

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Speaker 5: is a big you know, handicap right now for trade

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Speaker 5: and if between escorts, plus the you know, insurance because

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Speaker 5: the war premiums are to the roof and nobody can travel.

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Speaker 2: What about pipelines, I mean, I mean, the answer is

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Speaker 2: I know that in counter there's the Dolphin pipeline, which

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Speaker 2: is you know, the basic pipeline, but there's all sorts

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Speaker 2: of pipelines that haven't been built.

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Speaker 4: Is this war, for whatever reason, the catalyst for that

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Speaker 4: area to grow up and put in a pipeline infrastructure.

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Speaker 5: That's such a good question because for years there has

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Speaker 5: been discussion potentially of Katari building a pipeline gas pipeline

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Speaker 5: the Asteria heading towards zero basically to the from thes

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Speaker 5: for that it could potentially be a big trigger. However,

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Speaker 5: you know, as you know, it's an unstable region. We

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Speaker 5: need a lot of stars aligning. And also there is

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Speaker 5: increasingly more guys in the Mediterranean that would be competing

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Speaker 5: with these.

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Speaker 4: Guys, lots of part of Guzman. And this key question

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Speaker 4: is the United States Navy going to provide export service

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Speaker 4: escort service through the.

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Speaker 7: Golf That's what President Trump's been saying.

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Speaker 5: Yes, I think we're increasingly and not just potentially from

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Speaker 5: the US, but I think additional power see it as

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Speaker 5: an opportunity to reopen the sea routes that have been

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Speaker 5: hijacked by either the whosy.

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Speaker 4: Men boats sitting targets, sitting ducks.

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Speaker 5: So it all depends on what's left in terms of

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Speaker 5: weaponryes from Iran. And it's hard to go but you know, drones,

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Speaker 5: missiles we saw potentially mind but I think the US

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Speaker 5: military plus the Israeli plus you know, transistanting an aircraft carrier.

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Speaker 5: We heard some Greek you also navy go Yeah.

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Speaker 7: That did they shut there some some a few boats

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Speaker 7: that are taking on this risk coming from Greece. I

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Speaker 7: guess they're saying they're shutting off however that people could

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Speaker 7: find out where they are. I guess their radar they're

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Speaker 7: shutting that off and sort of an essence going through

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Speaker 7: the straight blind.

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Speaker 5: And this is where you know, dismantling this kind of

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Speaker 5: rogue state axis because they get intelligence and weapon sharing

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Speaker 5: from China, from Russia, and those are actors that are

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Speaker 5: you know, malevolent and are impitting the global trade.

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Speaker 2: I get one time for one more question. I freshened

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Speaker 2: up my chart of oil in twenty twenty six dollars.

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Speaker 2: We've had other occurrences of one twenty one to thirty

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Speaker 2: dollars per barrel. In twenty twenty six dollars, can you

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Speaker 2: see a further spike up from one hundred and five?

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Speaker 5: So to come back to Alexi's question earlier, I think that,

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Speaker 5: but you know the fact that the US now is

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Speaker 5: one of the largest produce producers. Yeah, we have increasingly

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Speaker 5: non OPEC supply. That's a buffer and that's that's also

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Speaker 5: you know why the timing of the strike, you know

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Speaker 5: maybe a few years ago it would have been impossible

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Speaker 5: to do that. I think there is a buffer, but.

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Speaker 6: Again, the duration of the war will be critical.

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Speaker 2: We got to run. Thank can you come in again

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Speaker 2: like every day for the next three weeks.

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Speaker 5: Happy to be back and thanks, thank you for having me.

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Speaker 2: Leslie Paulty Guzman, thank you so much and look for

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Speaker 2: her writing an Energy Vista can't say enough about her work.

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Speaker 2: Energy Vista's Leslie Pulti.

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Speaker 4: Guzmer Stay with us.

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Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

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00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:58,919
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch US Live YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Victoria Fernandez joins US Chief market strategiest Crossmarke Global Investments.

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Speaker 2: So down in the energy land, Victorious, somebody's going to

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Speaker 2: call up today and say, go to cash.

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Speaker 4: How do you respond to a Cross Smart client? Afraid?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, Luckily we haven't gotten those calls yet Tom.

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Speaker 6: But we don't really want to see our clients go to.

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Speaker 9: Cash at this point in time, and really because it's

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Speaker 9: this rotation that we're seeing in the market that we

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Speaker 9: think tells us there's still strength ahead when you're looking

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Speaker 9: out on a six to twelve month investment horizon. We're

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Speaker 9: not changing what we're doing for our clients right now.

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Speaker 9: We're staying invested in those companies that we like you know,

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Speaker 9: we always talk about the strong balance sheets, the good

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Speaker 9: cash flows. These are the companies that we've been invested in.

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Speaker 9: It's where we want to stay invested now. Obviously, things

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Speaker 9: can change if the duration of this war goes for

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Speaker 9: an extended period of time, if the global economic outlook

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Speaker 9: completely changes significantly while and it's time to make a change.

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Speaker 9: But for right now, we don't want to make a change.

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Speaker 9: We don't want to chase some of the areas that

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Speaker 9: have done well, but we want to look at some

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Speaker 9: of the areas that are in uptrends. Look at industrials,

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Speaker 9: look at materials, look at healthcare. These are areas we

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Speaker 9: want to put money to work for our clients.

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Speaker 7: So the fence ed your Denny Victoria now is saying

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Speaker 7: the probability of a market meltdown is at thirty five

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Speaker 7: percent for the rest of the year. He slashed the

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Speaker 7: odds of a melt up to five percent. What are

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Speaker 7: your thoughts on those numbers.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's interesting.

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Speaker 9: We actually said we thought this year, Alexis is what

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Speaker 9: we call a high risk bull market.

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Speaker 6: So the potential for.

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Speaker 9: The equity market to continue to do well is really

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Speaker 9: based on the fact of earnings expectations still being double

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Speaker 9: digit CAPEX growth that we're seeing not just in tech

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Speaker 9: but everywhere, and the productivity growth and right now, those

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Speaker 9: are elements that we continue to see supporting this market.

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Speaker 9: It doesn't mean it can't change, and if it does,

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Speaker 9: then we'll change what we want to do on our portfolios.

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Speaker 9: But if we can see productivity stay, I mean over

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Speaker 9: the last three months, it's what about four percent on

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Speaker 9: productivity if CAPEX continues to do well this business.

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Speaker 6: The CEO confidence survey that came out.

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Speaker 9: Last week shows the CEOs are still willing to put

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Speaker 9: the CAPEX to work, and earnings are still doing their

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Speaker 9: job right now. Yes, we expect them to come down

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Speaker 9: a little bit, but still be pretty solid. So if

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Speaker 9: we have those elements in place, I think the market

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Speaker 9: can withstand some of the issues that we're seeing, whether

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Speaker 9: it's geopolitical, whether it's inflation, whether it's labor market. Not

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Speaker 9: saying it's going to be a gangbuster's market, but I

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Speaker 9: think we can withstand it.

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Speaker 7: But a lot's also going to hinge on what the

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Speaker 7: Federal Reserve does with interest rates. We've got a meeting

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Speaker 7: next week, so much for the Fed to parse through

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Speaker 7: one of the only or one of the few places

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Speaker 7: I guess Americans were getting relief was at the gas pump.

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Speaker 7: Now that's not happening. So are we now looking at

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Speaker 7: the fed's next move being a hike?

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Speaker 6: And if so, when, Yeah.

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Speaker 9: I would say that the Fed's next move is just

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Speaker 9: going to be doing nothing. They're going to hold the

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Speaker 9: course for a while. I would not expect to see

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Speaker 9: them make a move until at least the middle of

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Speaker 9: the year. So I think this meeting is on hold.

439
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 9: Your first meeting of the summer is probably on hold.

440
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 9: We're looking at you know, late summer, maybe fall before

441
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,439
Speaker 9: we see a move, And depending on how long the

442
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:25,680
Speaker 9: issues go on in the Middle East, that's going to

443
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 9: tell us whether we're looking at a hike or whether

444
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,479
Speaker 9: we're looking at a cut. We would probably see hikes

445
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,199
Speaker 9: out of Europe or somewhere in the rest of the

446
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 9: world prior to seeing them in the US, and they're

447
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,200
Speaker 9: closer to that than we are at this point in time.

448
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 9: But I can't say for sure the next move will

449
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 9: be a hike.

450
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 6: I think we're going to be on hold for a while.

451
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 4: The term before we go.

452
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 2: You're encyclopedic about, you know, I make jokes about it.

453
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 4: Folks.

454
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 2: You went up to College station and got parchment in

455
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,320
Speaker 2: that and escape back down to Houston as well. How

456
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 2: does Houston as a community respond to one hundred dollars

457
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 2: Beryl oil.

458
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 6: Yeah, well it's.

459
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 9: Going to be similar to a lot of places in

460
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 9: terms of consumers and looking at the gas pumps. I

461
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 9: mean I filled up my gas pump yesterday too. You

462
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 9: guys were talking about this. I'm yesterday filled up my

463
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 9: car with gas before prices go higher. But obviously energy

464
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 9: is a huge component of our economy, so there's a

465
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:21,679
Speaker 9: lot of talk around what that means. What we're not

466
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 9: seeing right now is the energy companies making huge shifts

467
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:27,680
Speaker 9: and what their plans are going forward. I think you're

468
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 9: looking at it as well as maybe temporary.

469
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 6: So we'll see what happens.

470
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 2: Well, we'll have to see on that. But the porch

471
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 2: is pretty gas efficient. Victoria Fernandez, thank you so much,

472
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 2: Chief Market Strategies, Cross Market Global Investments as well.

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