WEBVTT - Make THESE MLB Bets Before Opening Day w/ Derek Carty (Ep. 679) 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:03.600 The Welsh and I sat down with Derek Carty to 0:00:03.640 --> 0:00:05.560 talk about some of the best bets you can make 0:00:05.760 --> 0:00:10.399 in Major League Baseball in twenty twenty five. Joining us 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:13.960 Derek Carty for the great minds and sports, just sports, 0:00:14.200 --> 0:00:18.360 and fantastic hair. By the way, I feel very inadequate today. 0:00:18.440 --> 0:00:22.400 Welsh's hair is extremely Jimmy Neutron high. Derek Carty has 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:24.119 got a really nice lift going on. I, on the 0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:27.160 other hand, clean as a whistle, but nothing to show 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:29.240 up there. But we've got a lot to show you today. 0:00:29.720 --> 0:00:33.320 We have a phenomenal lineup coming in the next couple 0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:36.159 hours here for you. So stay with us for all 0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:38.760 of the fantasy baseball fests because we're gonna talk about 0:00:38.880 --> 0:00:41.160 the players you should target, the players you should avoid. 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:43.600 We're gonna talk prospects, we're gonna talk bus we're gonna 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:46.160 talk breakouts, We're gonna talk all of it right now. 0:00:46.280 --> 0:00:49.440 Before we do, we're also gonna give away some free stuff. 0:00:49.440 --> 0:00:54.080 And we've got an amazing giveaway today Chris Sale autograph Jersey. 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:57.960 That's right, Cy Young winner, Chris Sale. And we're giving 0:00:57.960 --> 0:01:00.240 this bad boy away right now. So how do you 0:01:00.280 --> 0:01:03.280 win it? Well, you drop a comment below on the 0:01:03.320 --> 0:01:07.080 stream and subscribe to the Fantasy Pros MLB YouTube channel. 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:09.080 That's all you gotta do, and we'll be announcing the 0:01:09.120 --> 0:01:11.680 winner right here on the stream. So stay tuned and 0:01:11.720 --> 0:01:13.640 send those comments in, and don't forget to ring the 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:15.839 belt of the coasting for notification so you never miss 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:19.440 a piece of content here on the channel. End Welsh. 0:01:19.520 --> 0:01:22.280 I'm very excited for baseball season and watching some spring 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:24.720 training games the last couple of days. I'm at that 0:01:24.760 --> 0:01:26.479 point though, where I'm like, all right, I'm done, I'm 0:01:26.520 --> 0:01:29.959 over spring training. Derek Cardy, are you like that as well, 0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:32.160 where you just feel like spring training just lingers? Maybe 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:34.520 that one extra week too long, because that's where I'm at. 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:37.920 Yeah, I can always use the extra week to get 0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:41.760 stuff prepared, But in terms of just like wanting baseball 0:01:42.160 --> 0:01:43.960 right now, yeah, like I'm ready. 0:01:44.440 --> 0:01:46.119 There you go, We're ready to go. And what we're 0:01:46.120 --> 0:01:48.920 going to talk about with Derek Carty today is some 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:51.480 of our best Major League Baseball bets. Now I've already 0:01:51.520 --> 0:01:53.960 put a few of them out there. I'm going to 0:01:53.960 --> 0:01:56.040 be locking them in Betting Pros, So make sure you 0:01:56.080 --> 0:01:59.040 subscribe to Betting Pros as well. That channel, but also 0:01:59.480 --> 0:02:01.440 get the betting pros app and you can follow me 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:03.800 at Joe Pisapo there. Because I have a lot of 0:02:03.840 --> 0:02:06.720 big feelings about some of these futures. I want to 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:09.440 start with a low wind total here of the Chicago 0:02:09.480 --> 0:02:13.240 White Sox, because Derek Carty, that's where you're starting. And 0:02:13.400 --> 0:02:16.480 I understand the White Sox are bad, and I love 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:20.440 that small numbers sometimes are easy w's. But I want 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:23.760 to hear the reasoning behind this White Sox over on 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:24.440 the wind total. 0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:26.960 Yeah, I'm sure this is the first bet that everybody 0:02:26.960 --> 0:02:31.000 that's tuning in wants to here. You tune in to 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:32.880 hear me talk about why the White Socks are going 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:34.679 to be are going to be good this year. 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:36.799 I think you did this with the A's last year, 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:38.760 didn't didn't you. It's like you just got to pick 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:41.360 the bottom barrel of it all. I love it, Cardi, 0:02:41.480 --> 0:02:42.160 we'll get in the mud. 0:02:42.760 --> 0:02:45.919 We're going with the White Sox over over sixty or 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:48.400 over fifty three and a half wins. I think the 0:02:48.400 --> 0:02:51.680 best line right now is might like minus one tenant DraftKings. 0:02:52.400 --> 0:02:55.079 This opened at fifty at some books, and it's been 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:57.399 creeping up. There's some sixty four and a half's out there. 0:02:57.440 --> 0:03:00.800 Now you look at what the bad X. My projection 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:03.800 system is projecting for the White Sox though, it's projecting 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:06.679 sixty six wins and we're getting a fifty three and 0:03:06.720 --> 0:03:10.960 a half line, Like, it's just absurd. The line is 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:13.400 too low. It's too low. I said the same thing 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:15.960 last year with Oakland, and it worked out really nicely 0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:19.959 when a team was as bad or looked as bad 0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:23.000 as the White Sox did last year. Of course the 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:24.800 betting market is going to be, like, nobody wants to 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:26.880 bet the over on them, so we can set whatever 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:29.399 line we want, because no one really wants to bet 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:29.960 the over. 0:03:29.840 --> 0:03:31.120 No matter what line we put. 0:03:32.639 --> 0:03:35.680 And so they said it even lower than they probably should, 0:03:36.200 --> 0:03:38.760 and that gives us. That gives us value on betting 0:03:38.760 --> 0:03:39.640 the over if we. 0:03:39.680 --> 0:03:41.520 Have the stones to do it. 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:45.640 So, yeah, the White Sox were really really bad last year. 0:03:45.680 --> 0:03:49.480 They are actually a really bad team, but they're not 0:03:49.720 --> 0:03:55.640 like historically bad. Probably most teams are not just by sheer. 0:03:55.640 --> 0:03:58.680 Probably they were last year. They were historically bad last year. 0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:00.520 But to your point, yeah, but. 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:04.960 Are they actually that bad or did they just were 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:08.440 they bad? Combined with just like you know bad variants 0:04:08.440 --> 0:04:11.080 over one hundred and sixty two games. Most likely it's 0:04:11.120 --> 0:04:11.840 the second one. 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:13.560 They're bad. 0:04:14.000 --> 0:04:16.760 I haven't projected for the second fewest wins in baseball 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:20.000 this year, or maybe even the most or losses rather 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:23.080 or maybe the most losses in baseball, but fifty three 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:26.919 and a half is extremely low. You have to be really, really, 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:30.960 really bad, and it's almost impossible to project any team's 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:32.880 true talent level to be that bad. 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:36.919 Ever, and by the way, people don't people realize they should. 0:04:37.120 --> 0:04:39.760 Derek Cardi, creator of the bat and the bat x projections, 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:41.680 which you can see on Fangraphs, and you see all 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:44.480 over the place rated out this year as well on 0:04:44.520 --> 0:04:48.560 the baseball projections here at Fantasy Pros. One question for 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:52.000 you on that total. When you're doing season long totals 0:04:52.080 --> 0:04:55.440 like this where you're getting minus money bets, so you're, 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:57.080 you know, you're a fifty three and a half I 0:04:57.080 --> 0:04:59.760 think was the number, and you're betting a season long 0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:04.080 at minus money, what's your relative approach to Like I 0:05:04.160 --> 0:05:06.320 wanna go too crazy into like unit betting, but like 0:05:06.720 --> 0:05:08.760 you know, like someone's like, hey, you know, I usually 0:05:08.760 --> 0:05:10.920 bet this on normal stuff. But you got to wait 0:05:10.920 --> 0:05:12.960 a whole season long, Like, what is your approach to 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:15.720 betting this? Are you like five units in when you're 0:05:15.720 --> 0:05:17.839 betting a win total to play out for the whole season? 0:05:17.839 --> 0:05:20.120 Same thing I guess would apply for The only problem 0:05:20.279 --> 0:05:23.120 is like awards, you know you're getting big plus money 0:05:23.400 --> 0:05:25.600 these type of like over home run, I've got one 0:05:25.640 --> 0:05:27.960 I'm gonna play or something like this, Like how are 0:05:27.960 --> 0:05:29.960 you unit betting this type of bet? 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:33.840 Yeah, I mean minus one tens standard, so you know, 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:37.479 it's it's kind of you know, your normal amount. The 0:05:37.520 --> 0:05:39.360 only thing I'll say is that I don't put a 0:05:39.440 --> 0:05:43.880 ton into season long props just because you have to 0:05:43.920 --> 0:05:46.400 wait until the end of the season or in the 0:05:46.520 --> 0:05:48.400 case of the White Sox maybe until August. 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:50.880 And that's that's kind of what I mean by there, 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:53.960 because like you're investing in a standard one ten bet, 0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:56.800 but it's dragging over the entire season, Like, are you 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:58.720 more compelled to be like, well, if I'm going to 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:01.120 season long this, I love this. This has got to 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:03.320 be you know, five units in what I would normally 0:06:03.320 --> 0:06:04.520 do on just a daily bet. 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:08.880 Yeah, it's a it's not a question that has an 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:12.240 actual correct answer. It's kind of just like how do 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:14.279 you feel about tying up your money that long? What 0:06:14.320 --> 0:06:16.479 does your bankroll look like? What do you want to 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:20.040 you know, be able to have in the chamber for 0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:23.719 the season. This one does project really well. I'm not 0:06:23.760 --> 0:06:25.360 the kind of person though that it's like, well, this 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:27.040 one I like a lot, so I'm just going to 0:06:27.160 --> 0:06:30.720 fire five or ten units at it. The way I 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:33.159 approach betting is that I'm going to place a lot 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:38.520 of bets long term, and usually i'm I'm flat betting, 0:06:39.000 --> 0:06:41.920 and so I'm not saying, Okay, this one's definitely gonna win, 0:06:41.960 --> 0:06:43.920 and this one I don't know if this one's gonna win. 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:46.880 Like every bet I place, I think is positive expected value. 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:49.320 I place the bet I'm going to lose some and 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:52.000 in the long run I expect to win more than 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:53.800 I lose and to come out profitable. 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:55.279 And that's that's always been the case. 0:06:55.680 --> 0:06:57.680 So here, I do think the edge on this one 0:06:57.760 --> 0:07:00.320 is big, but I'm not recommending you bet your. 0:07:00.200 --> 0:07:00.719 House on it. 0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:03.600 No, Well that's good, you know. It's funny. Timing is 0:07:03.600 --> 0:07:06.479 everything when it comes to wagers. Two. Because I went 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:09.440 and bet the Red Sox over the weekend before the 0:07:09.480 --> 0:07:12.440 Garrett Cole News and the quote unquote second opinion came 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:15.600 out to win the American League East and I got 0:07:15.600 --> 0:07:17.720 a number in the three fifties and now it's dropped 0:07:17.720 --> 0:07:20.040 to the two seventies after the Garrett Cole news drop. 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:22.760 So timing is everything when you're looking at making your 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:26.120 wagers too. So if you see opportunities. 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:28.440 On some anti Yankees bets earlier that are looking look 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:30.600 pretty good right now, like Yankee not to make the 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:32.560 playoffs plus two point fifty. 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:34.800 Kind of thing or under ninety wins or whatever it 0:07:34.840 --> 0:07:35.320 was said. 0:07:35.160 --> 0:07:37.680 At Yeah, well Derek Cary has already got me going 0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:39.679 after the show to bet something else now that he's 0:07:39.760 --> 0:07:41.559 dropped that one on me. But that's the whole point 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:43.760 is that you know, when you anticipate good news or 0:07:43.800 --> 0:07:46.920 bad news, there's sometimes value in the market, and that's 0:07:46.920 --> 0:07:49.320 something you have to pay attention to that's out there now. 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:53.040 I see, don't give him the stick? Has a question? 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:54.960 Can we ask questions answer our the live stream? The 0:07:54.960 --> 0:07:57.560 answer is yes, yes, you absolutely can. We want your 0:07:57.600 --> 0:07:59.280 questions here, so drop them. We'll try to get through 0:07:59.280 --> 0:08:02.440 as many as we can. But if you definitively must 0:08:02.480 --> 0:08:04.920 have your question answered, you need it you got to 0:08:05.000 --> 0:08:07.000 keep your question, you got a draft going on, whatever 0:08:07.000 --> 0:08:10.400 you got happening, you can superchat us as well. So 0:08:10.480 --> 0:08:15.080 superchats are available today and we will get to as many, 0:08:15.120 --> 0:08:16.800 if not all, the super chats and they will get 0:08:16.840 --> 0:08:19.400 priority in our chat. But doesn't mean you can't just 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:21.680 drop some questions in there too. We're going to do 0:08:21.760 --> 0:08:24.480 our best, and we appreciate you as always making sure 0:08:24.480 --> 0:08:26.920 that you support our channel by subscribing, and we're trying 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:30.480 to get a twenty five thousand before we get to 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:32.640 opening day. I think we can do it. We're getting 0:08:32.720 --> 0:08:35.920 very close. I believe in us, and of course Welsh 0:08:35.920 --> 0:08:38.160 and I will do something stupid in honor of twenty 0:08:38.160 --> 0:08:40.160 five thousand. So if that's not inxtentive, I don't know 0:08:40.160 --> 0:08:42.640 what is. Speaking of the Boston Red Sox so I 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:45.360 mentioned earlier Garrett Crochet, well you've got a wager on 0:08:45.440 --> 0:08:47.520 him that you're looking to place, and I really like 0:08:47.600 --> 0:08:50.040 this one too. It's one that I am planning on 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:52.840 betting as soon as he gets right there at the 0:08:52.960 --> 0:08:54.640 end of spring training. I don't like to make too 0:08:54.640 --> 0:08:57.520 many bets before spring training's over because anything can happen, 0:08:57.920 --> 0:09:00.600 but this one is definitely all my rdar. Well let's 0:09:00.640 --> 0:09:01.200 talk about it. 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:03.720 Yeah, and I don't do as well a bunch of 0:09:04.000 --> 0:09:08.320 crazy season long bets like Cardi saying it's not huge 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:11.480 in my market. But last year on this Fantasy Fest, 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:14.800 what was my play, Joe, It was stolen based leader 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:17.880 Ellie de la Cruz at six to one. This is 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:20.520 my Ellie for this year, and it is Garrett Crochet 0:09:20.960 --> 0:09:24.320 to lead the league in strikeouts, and I found it 0:09:24.360 --> 0:09:26.520 as good as ten to one right now, so even 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:28.840 better than that Ellie number. As you can see up 0:09:28.880 --> 0:09:31.000 on the screen, we've got some projections up there. I'll 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:33.640 throw a few things at you with Garrett Croche and 0:09:33.640 --> 0:09:35.800 you're probably at nauseum. You've heard me talk about Gerrett 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:39.360 Croche on Fantasy pros videos everywhere. According to the bat 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:43.360 Derek Carty's projection system, Garrett Crochet is projected fifth in 0:09:43.440 --> 0:09:45.920 the league in strikeouts at two hundred and six so 0:09:46.000 --> 0:09:48.559 that is twelve less strikeouts than the leader, who is 0:09:48.640 --> 0:09:53.200 Dylan Cease at two hundred and eighteen strikeouts. But it's 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:55.680 all about the innings. It is all about the innings 0:09:55.679 --> 0:09:59.319 of Garrett Croche. Thirty more projected innings for that leader 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:03.240 Dylan Crue than Garrett Crochet. According to the BAT. In 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:06.320 most projection systems, he's right around the one fifty marker 0:10:06.600 --> 0:10:09.200 one fifty two to be exact, so thirty less innings 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:12.240 projected than Dylan Cees. Yet he is one of, if 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:15.600 not the top, across multiple projection systems you look. He 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:18.800 is one or two in k per nine. According to 0:10:18.840 --> 0:10:22.240 the BAT, there are eight projected two hundred strikeout pitchers. 0:10:22.480 --> 0:10:25.120 Six of those eight have at least one hundred and 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:28.560 seventy three or more projected innings, So again, that is 0:10:28.679 --> 0:10:30.959 twenty less innings than any of those other players. The 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:33.120 only other guy is Blake Snell, who is like a 0:10:33.200 --> 0:10:36.199 strikeout or two less a couple more innings than Garrett Croche. 0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:41.199 I love this, I love the team context, the division. Obviously, 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:43.599 can you bring in some questions here, but at the 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:47.200 end of the day, I think it's easy to play 0:10:47.200 --> 0:10:49.920 in a world where he can blow past these projected innings. 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:52.720 He had one hundred and forty six innings last season 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:57.280 last season, and we are barely projecting any positive upside 0:10:57.320 --> 0:11:00.160 on innings. So now you're looking at a Yankees team 0:11:00.280 --> 0:11:03.280 that's playing from behind. You guys want to place bets 0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:05.080 up on the Red Sox to take to the division, 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:08.200 They're gonna need Garrett Crochet more than ever. There's obviously 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:11.200 an injury toll of making any starting pitcher bet, but 0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:14.719 you're looking at one of the highest strikeout pitchers in baseball, 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:16.880 and the only thing that is holding him back from 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:22.480 every single projection system being the leader in strikeouts are 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:24.800 those innings. And I think there is a lot of 0:11:24.800 --> 0:11:26.840 cushion on those innings, and I think there's a lot 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:29.079 of value on that. That's the other thing. If Garrett 0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:33.880 Crochet was like four to one or like second in strikeouts, 0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:34.640 this might feel. 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:35.079 A little bit different. 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:38.760 We're talking close to ten to one right now on 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:41.960 this bet. So this is my absolute favorite of any 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:44.080 of these. When you talk about awards or you know, 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:47.319 season long stat projecting type of things, I love Garrett 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:48.840 Croche to lead the league in strikeouts. 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:50.760 CARDI I'd be very curious at what you. 0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:52.679 Have to say about this one, because I laid out 0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:55.600 using your projection system some of what's on Crochet. What 0:11:55.600 --> 0:11:57.240 do you think about placing this bet. 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:00.920 I like it for basically the reason that that you said, 0:12:01.120 --> 0:12:04.760 you know, innings are are not even something that most 0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:08.840 projection systems are projecting directly, like I'm not. I'm just 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:15.520 using ATC's basically aggregate innings projections. We don't know which 0:12:15.559 --> 0:12:17.400 pictures are going to stay healthy, Like the innings are 0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:19.880 just kind of like this guy hasn't really done it 0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:21.320 before he could get hurt. 0:12:21.360 --> 0:12:22.559 We're going to play conservative. 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:25.080 We don't know if Crochet is one of the guys 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:27.199 goes over two hundred innings, like he has the stuff 0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:29.200 easily to be the leader. So yeah, if you're getting 0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:31.400 great odds on it, then then I like it because 0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:35.120 on a per rating basis, Crochet should certainly be better 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:35.719 than ten to one. 0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:38.600 Yeah, and right now plus eight point fifty in some 0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:41.400 markets I've seen has even gone down to So this 0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:43.560 is one where you know, one less guy. And Garrett 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:46.960 Cole too now enters into that conversation too, so you 0:12:46.960 --> 0:12:48.520 can see all of a sudden, when the field starts 0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:51.000 to whittle down, all of a sudden, less competition. I 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:53.000 think the innings is clearly the only thing we have 0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:55.480 to worry about here. But I'm with you, Wash, I'm 0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:57.319 not super worried, and I'm starting to really buy the 0:12:57.360 --> 0:12:59.040 Red Sox here. I have him in a parlay for 0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:01.400 a couple division. I like to do those. They're fun. 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:03.520 You throw a ten bucks, you can win a couple grand. 0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:06.640 I got real close on two NFL ones last year, 0:13:06.679 --> 0:13:09.559 one of which I did get late on a redo 0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:12.920 that was a very nice return. But one of them 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:15.080 was I think it was like twenty bucks or something. 0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:17.040 It would have brought back three grand, and I missed 0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:20.680 it by one division. One division I got wrong. Very frustrating, 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:24.280 but it's fun. Nonetheless, this is the ride we take here. 0:13:24.600 --> 0:13:27.480 Let's also go back to Cardi here for another one 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:28.960 of his picks. Before we do, I want to get 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:31.160 to some questions also that I have in the chat 0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:34.800 right here from tough talk with teachers for end of 0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:37.640 the show. Here, would you keep both Gunner and Trey 0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:40.400 Turner in a keeper league? Cardi? Let's ask you this 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:43.720 question here. What do you think about Trey Turner and Gunner? 0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:46.360 I know Gunner is dealing with some health issues right now. 0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:49.520 Trey Turner, you know, obviously a slow start last year, 0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:52.040 but things kind of came back around. I feel comfortable 0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:53.679 keeping both these guys. If I can only keep one, 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:55.560 I'm keeping Gunner. But what are your thoughts here. 0:13:56.559 --> 0:13:58.800 It kind of depends on what your alternatives are. How 0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:01.960 many tempers? I mean, yeah, they're both worth keeping in 0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:02.760 the right situation. 0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:05.920 You're worried about Gunner's health, You're worried about Turner a 0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:07.719 little bit, like he doesn't project as well as he 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:10.920 has in past years. But but yeah, if they if 0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:12.680 they kind of set up as your best guy, sure, 0:14:12.760 --> 0:14:13.800 I have no problem with that. 0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:16.680 Next question here, don't give him the stick? Has one 0:14:16.720 --> 0:14:18.680 for us we love? Don't give him the stick? Would 0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:21.440 you would like to get our opinion about rp's and 0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:24.200 a twelve team headhead categories league generally like to wait 0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:26.000 until at least the six round of Chase says was 0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:28.600 seeing rping going earlier in the mock drafts. Here's the 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:32.200 thing for me, Welsh is if you have a mandatory 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:35.080 RP spots that matters a little bit more. I'm more 0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:38.240 apt to be a little bit more aggresive at least 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:41.200 get one guy. If not, you know, then I'm more 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:44.400 apt to wait and let the saves kind of fall 0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:46.760 where they may. I like going late on the choices 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:50.080 and the Romanos and the Fairbanks and just maybe get 0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:52.720 three guys and just kind of have some bodies in 0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:55.400 there for those two RP spots. You are more of 0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:57.720 a go get a closer early and you tend to 0:14:57.800 --> 0:14:59.720 like to lock one in from what I've seen, especially 0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:01.600 you a little bit more I did the head cats. 0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:03.640 I'm more of a points fella. Where do you think 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:05.200 is kind of the sweet spot this year? With the 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:06.200 pool looking the way it is. 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:10.040 I mean, I think like if you're playing in an NFBC, 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:12.760 you're gonna see, like, you know, closures going between the 0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:14.880 second and third round, you might start seeing you know, 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:17.520 there's a class A, he's a hater into the fourth round, 0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:19.840 So then I think you're gonna see a brunt start 0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:23.840 pushing around the fifth sixth. I don't need to get 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:26.960 the top guys. I really love Andris Munios. That's probably 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:30.000 like that top is the bottom of the top tier 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:32.680 of the first closure that I want. I think there's 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:36.040 a bunch of value later. Kyle Finigan is still being 0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:38.880 ranked low. Ryan Presley is still ranked really low in 0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:41.600 a lot in ADP. He's like two forty right now 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:44.120 across an aggregate of ADP. I think there's a lot 0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:47.000 of late closers, plus guys like AJ puck. I want 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:49.640 to get one, but follow the runs, pay attention to 0:15:49.720 --> 0:15:52.480 the runs. Seven or eight closers go off the board, 0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:54.520 then start paying attention. That's why I'm going to start 0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:55.920 targeting a guy like Andres Munos. 0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:56.840 But I don't want to. 0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:59.640 Be pushed if I have to to be drafting closers 0:15:59.680 --> 0:16:00.520 in the floor round. 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:03.000 Got a Crochet question here, since we're just talking about him, 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:05.720 let's talk about this. Drafting Crochet at twenty two early 0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:08.840 head to had points of strikeouts are worth a lot. 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:12.400 It's not crazy to me, but he is going at 0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:15.160 thirty six overall, more of a third round ish kind 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:16.760 of guy. CARDI, what do you think here? Do you 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:20.400 think it would pay to be more aggressive on Crochet 0:16:20.560 --> 0:16:23.400 or I mean this is almost a whole round ahead early. 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:24.680 It's tough. 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:27.760 I mean, like we said before with with Welsh's bet, 0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:31.280 like Crochet's talent is elite, Like he's probably a top 0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:34.920 or three pitcher in baseball. It's just like how deep 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:37.280 is he going to you know, how many innings he's 0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:39.560 going to be able to throw? And pitching in Fenway's 0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:44.360 not ideal. So twenty's probably a little high for me 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:47.320 when you weigh the risk, but I mean, I wouldn't 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:49.040 be surprised if he pays that off. 0:16:49.480 --> 0:16:50.440 Yeah, it's tough. 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:53.960 It's tough actually comparing against the guy who's going consensus four. 0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:56.400 I have Garrett Crochet at four in my ranks, but 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:59.960 Logan Gilbert is the consensus four guy. And you want 0:16:59.960 --> 0:17:03.320 to talk about consistency and innings. So you're battling this 0:17:03.800 --> 0:17:08.800 upside potential down there's a downside to Gare Crochet pitching 0:17:08.880 --> 0:17:11.439 in Boston, like like Derek said, but then you've got 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:15.200 all this upside versus this floor with not I don't 0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:17.480 want to say there's not upside. There's still continuous upside 0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:21.480 with with Gilbert as he continues to change up this 0:17:21.560 --> 0:17:24.200 repertoire and throwing splitters and stuff like that. But that's 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:26.879 the battle that you're dealing with. It's like consistency of 0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:30.640 Logan Gilbert or upside of Crochet. I did take Crochet 0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:33.280 in the second round of my tout draft, but it 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:35.639 was bigger. It was fifteen team. I think I was 0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:37.399 a little bit towards the back. I wanted to make 0:17:37.440 --> 0:17:39.160 sure I got an sp and a few were coming 0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:41.840 off of the board, so twenty might be a little 0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:44.920 bit high, but maybe in reference if like five or 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:47.640 six pitchers are already off the board, you know, and 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:49.720 maybe he's got a long running you don't want to miss. 0:17:49.720 --> 0:17:52.119 But I probably am not taking him at twenty to 0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:52.560 be honest. 0:17:52.920 --> 0:17:54.679 Let's get back to some of the wagers. Hero's go 0:17:54.720 --> 0:17:58.040 back to Derek speaking of Logan Gilbert. Logan Gilbert to 0:17:58.119 --> 0:18:01.480 lead the league in wins. Now, the Seattle Mariners would 0:18:01.480 --> 0:18:04.720 serve themselves a little bit better to possibly score some 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:06.520 more runs. I want to say, at home last year 0:18:06.560 --> 0:18:08.399 when they scored three or more runs, they were forty 0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:10.960