Speaker 1: The Welsh and I sat down with Derek Carty to
Speaker 1: talk about some of the best bets you can make
Speaker 1: in Major League Baseball in twenty twenty five. Joining us
Speaker 1: Derek Carty for the great minds and sports, just sports,
Speaker 1: and fantastic hair. By the way, I feel very inadequate today.
Speaker 1: Welsh's hair is extremely Jimmy Neutron high. Derek Carty has
Speaker 1: got a really nice lift going on. I, on the
Speaker 1: other hand, clean as a whistle, but nothing to show
Speaker 1: up there. But we've got a lot to show you today.
Speaker 1: We have a phenomenal lineup coming in the next couple
Speaker 1: hours here for you. So stay with us for all
Speaker 1: of the fantasy baseball fests because we're gonna talk about
Speaker 1: the players you should target, the players you should avoid.
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk prospects, we're gonna talk bus we're gonna
Speaker 1: talk breakouts, We're gonna talk all of it right now.
Speaker 1: Before we do, we're also gonna give away some free stuff.
Speaker 1: And we've got an amazing giveaway today Chris Sale autograph Jersey.
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Speaker 1: a piece of content here on the channel. End Welsh.
Speaker 1: I'm very excited for baseball season and watching some spring
Speaker 1: training games the last couple of days. I'm at that
Speaker 1: point though, where I'm like, all right, I'm done, I'm
Speaker 1: over spring training. Derek Cardy, are you like that as well,
Speaker 1: where you just feel like spring training just lingers? Maybe
Speaker 1: that one extra week too long, because that's where I'm at.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can always use the extra week to get
Speaker 2: stuff prepared, But in terms of just like wanting baseball
Speaker 2: right now, yeah, like I'm ready.
Speaker 1: There you go, We're ready to go. And what we're
Speaker 1: going to talk about with Derek Carty today is some
Speaker 1: of our best Major League Baseball bets. Now I've already
Speaker 1: put a few of them out there. I'm going to
Speaker 1: be locking them in Betting Pros, So make sure you
Speaker 1: subscribe to Betting Pros as well. That channel, but also
Speaker 1: get the betting pros app and you can follow me
Speaker 1: at Joe Pisapo there. Because I have a lot of
Speaker 1: big feelings about some of these futures. I want to
Speaker 1: start with a low wind total here of the Chicago
Speaker 1: White Sox, because Derek Carty, that's where you're starting. And
Speaker 1: I understand the White Sox are bad, and I love
Speaker 1: that small numbers sometimes are easy w's. But I want
Speaker 1: to hear the reasoning behind this White Sox over on
Speaker 1: the wind total.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm sure this is the first bet that everybody
Speaker 2: that's tuning in wants to here. You tune in to
Speaker 2: hear me talk about why the White Socks are going
Speaker 2: to be are going to be good this year.
Speaker 3: I think you did this with the A's last year,
Speaker 3: didn't didn't you. It's like you just got to pick
Speaker 3: the bottom barrel of it all. I love it, Cardi,
Speaker 3: we'll get in the mud.
Speaker 2: We're going with the White Sox over over sixty or
Speaker 2: over fifty three and a half wins. I think the
Speaker 2: best line right now is might like minus one tenant DraftKings.
Speaker 2: This opened at fifty at some books, and it's been
Speaker 2: creeping up. There's some sixty four and a half's out there.
Speaker 2: Now you look at what the bad X. My projection
Speaker 2: system is projecting for the White Sox though, it's projecting
Speaker 2: sixty six wins and we're getting a fifty three and
Speaker 2: a half line, Like, it's just absurd. The line is
Speaker 2: too low. It's too low. I said the same thing
Speaker 2: last year with Oakland, and it worked out really nicely
Speaker 2: when a team was as bad or looked as bad
Speaker 2: as the White Sox did last year. Of course the
Speaker 2: betting market is going to be, like, nobody wants to
Speaker 2: bet the over on them, so we can set whatever
Speaker 2: line we want, because no one really wants to bet
Speaker 2: the over.
Speaker 4: No matter what line we put.
Speaker 2: And so they said it even lower than they probably should,
Speaker 2: and that gives us. That gives us value on betting
Speaker 2: the over if we.
Speaker 4: Have the stones to do it.
Speaker 2: So, yeah, the White Sox were really really bad last year.
Speaker 2: They are actually a really bad team, but they're not
Speaker 2: like historically bad. Probably most teams are not just by sheer.
Speaker 3: Probably they were last year. They were historically bad last year.
Speaker 3: But to your point, yeah, but.
Speaker 2: Are they actually that bad or did they just were
Speaker 2: they bad? Combined with just like you know bad variants
Speaker 2: over one hundred and sixty two games. Most likely it's
Speaker 2: the second one.
Speaker 4: They're bad.
Speaker 2: I haven't projected for the second fewest wins in baseball
Speaker 2: this year, or maybe even the most or losses rather
Speaker 2: or maybe the most losses in baseball, but fifty three
Speaker 2: and a half is extremely low. You have to be really, really,
Speaker 2: really bad, and it's almost impossible to project any team's
Speaker 2: true talent level to be that bad.
Speaker 3: Ever, and by the way, people don't people realize they should.
Speaker 3: Derek Cardi, creator of the bat and the bat x projections,
Speaker 3: which you can see on Fangraphs, and you see all
Speaker 3: over the place rated out this year as well on
Speaker 3: the baseball projections here at Fantasy Pros. One question for
Speaker 3: you on that total. When you're doing season long totals
Speaker 3: like this where you're getting minus money bets, so you're,
Speaker 3: you know, you're a fifty three and a half I
Speaker 3: think was the number, and you're betting a season long
Speaker 3: at minus money, what's your relative approach to Like I
Speaker 3: wanna go too crazy into like unit betting, but like
Speaker 3: you know, like someone's like, hey, you know, I usually
Speaker 3: bet this on normal stuff. But you got to wait
Speaker 3: a whole season long, Like, what is your approach to
Speaker 3: betting this? Are you like five units in when you're
Speaker 3: betting a win total to play out for the whole season?
Speaker 3: Same thing I guess would apply for The only problem
Speaker 3: is like awards, you know you're getting big plus money
Speaker 3: these type of like over home run, I've got one
Speaker 3: I'm gonna play or something like this, Like how are
Speaker 3: you unit betting this type of bet?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean minus one tens standard, so you know,
Speaker 2: it's it's kind of you know, your normal amount. The
Speaker 2: only thing I'll say is that I don't put a
Speaker 2: ton into season long props just because you have to
Speaker 2: wait until the end of the season or in the
Speaker 2: case of the White Sox maybe until August.
Speaker 3: And that's that's kind of what I mean by there,
Speaker 3: because like you're investing in a standard one ten bet,
Speaker 3: but it's dragging over the entire season, Like, are you
Speaker 3: more compelled to be like, well, if I'm going to
Speaker 3: season long this, I love this. This has got to
Speaker 3: be you know, five units in what I would normally
Speaker 3: do on just a daily bet.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a it's not a question that has an
Speaker 2: actual correct answer. It's kind of just like how do
Speaker 2: you feel about tying up your money that long? What
Speaker 2: does your bankroll look like? What do you want to
Speaker 2: you know, be able to have in the chamber for
Speaker 2: the season. This one does project really well. I'm not
Speaker 2: the kind of person though that it's like, well, this
Speaker 2: one I like a lot, so I'm just going to
Speaker 2: fire five or ten units at it. The way I
Speaker 2: approach betting is that I'm going to place a lot
Speaker 2: of bets long term, and usually i'm I'm flat betting,
Speaker 2: and so I'm not saying, Okay, this one's definitely gonna win,
Speaker 2: and this one I don't know if this one's gonna win.
Speaker 2: Like every bet I place, I think is positive expected value.
Speaker 2: I place the bet I'm going to lose some and
Speaker 2: in the long run I expect to win more than
Speaker 2: I lose and to come out profitable.
Speaker 4: And that's that's always been the case.
Speaker 2: So here, I do think the edge on this one
Speaker 2: is big, but I'm not recommending you bet your.
Speaker 4: House on it.
Speaker 1: No, Well that's good, you know. It's funny. Timing is
Speaker 1: everything when it comes to wagers. Two. Because I went
Speaker 1: and bet the Red Sox over the weekend before the
Speaker 1: Garrett Cole News and the quote unquote second opinion came
Speaker 1: out to win the American League East and I got
Speaker 1: a number in the three fifties and now it's dropped
Speaker 1: to the two seventies after the Garrett Cole news drop.
Speaker 1: So timing is everything when you're looking at making your
Speaker 1: wagers too. So if you see opportunities.
Speaker 2: On some anti Yankees bets earlier that are looking look
Speaker 2: pretty good right now, like Yankee not to make the
Speaker 2: playoffs plus two point fifty.
Speaker 4: Kind of thing or under ninety wins or whatever it
Speaker 4: was said.
Speaker 1: At Yeah, well Derek Cary has already got me going
Speaker 1: after the show to bet something else now that he's
Speaker 1: dropped that one on me. But that's the whole point
Speaker 1: is that you know, when you anticipate good news or
Speaker 1: bad news, there's sometimes value in the market, and that's
Speaker 1: something you have to pay attention to that's out there now.
Speaker 1: I see, don't give him the stick? Has a question?
Speaker 1: Can we ask questions answer our the live stream? The
Speaker 1: answer is yes, yes, you absolutely can. We want your
Speaker 1: questions here, so drop them. We'll try to get through
Speaker 1: as many as we can. But if you definitively must
Speaker 1: have your question answered, you need it you got to
Speaker 1: keep your question, you got a draft going on, whatever
Speaker 1: you got happening, you can superchat us as well. So
Speaker 1: superchats are available today and we will get to as many,
Speaker 1: if not all, the super chats and they will get
Speaker 1: priority in our chat. But doesn't mean you can't just
Speaker 1: drop some questions in there too. We're going to do
Speaker 1: our best, and we appreciate you as always making sure
Speaker 1: that you support our channel by subscribing, and we're trying
Speaker 1: to get a twenty five thousand before we get to
Speaker 1: opening day. I think we can do it. We're getting
Speaker 1: very close. I believe in us, and of course Welsh
Speaker 1: and I will do something stupid in honor of twenty
Speaker 1: five thousand. So if that's not inxtentive, I don't know
Speaker 1: what is. Speaking of the Boston Red Sox so I
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier Garrett Crochet, well you've got a wager on
Speaker 1: him that you're looking to place, and I really like
Speaker 1: this one too. It's one that I am planning on
Speaker 1: betting as soon as he gets right there at the
Speaker 1: end of spring training. I don't like to make too
Speaker 1: many bets before spring training's over because anything can happen,
Speaker 1: but this one is definitely all my rdar. Well let's
Speaker 1: talk about it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I don't do as well a bunch of
Speaker 3: crazy season long bets like Cardi saying it's not huge
Speaker 3: in my market. But last year on this Fantasy Fest,
Speaker 3: what was my play, Joe, It was stolen based leader
Speaker 3: Ellie de la Cruz at six to one. This is
Speaker 3: my Ellie for this year, and it is Garrett Crochet
Speaker 3: to lead the league in strikeouts, and I found it
Speaker 3: as good as ten to one right now, so even
Speaker 3: better than that Ellie number. As you can see up
Speaker 3: on the screen, we've got some projections up there. I'll
Speaker 3: throw a few things at you with Garrett Croche and
Speaker 3: you're probably at nauseum. You've heard me talk about Gerrett
Speaker 3: Croche on Fantasy pros videos everywhere. According to the bat
Speaker 3: Derek Carty's projection system, Garrett Crochet is projected fifth in
Speaker 3: the league in strikeouts at two hundred and six so
Speaker 3: that is twelve less strikeouts than the leader, who is
Speaker 3: Dylan Cease at two hundred and eighteen strikeouts. But it's
Speaker 3: all about the innings. It is all about the innings
Speaker 3: of Garrett Croche. Thirty more projected innings for that leader
Speaker 3: Dylan Crue than Garrett Crochet. According to the BAT. In
Speaker 3: most projection systems, he's right around the one fifty marker
Speaker 3: one fifty two to be exact, so thirty less innings
Speaker 3: projected than Dylan Cees. Yet he is one of, if
Speaker 3: not the top, across multiple projection systems you look. He
Speaker 3: is one or two in k per nine. According to
Speaker 3: the BAT, there are eight projected two hundred strikeout pitchers.
Speaker 3: Six of those eight have at least one hundred and
Speaker 3: seventy three or more projected innings, So again, that is
Speaker 3: twenty less innings than any of those other players. The
Speaker 3: only other guy is Blake Snell, who is like a
Speaker 3: strikeout or two less a couple more innings than Garrett Croche.
Speaker 3: I love this, I love the team context, the division. Obviously,
Speaker 3: can you bring in some questions here, but at the
Speaker 3: end of the day, I think it's easy to play
Speaker 3: in a world where he can blow past these projected innings.
Speaker 3: He had one hundred and forty six innings last season
Speaker 3: last season, and we are barely projecting any positive upside
Speaker 3: on innings. So now you're looking at a Yankees team
Speaker 3: that's playing from behind. You guys want to place bets
Speaker 3: up on the Red Sox to take to the division,
Speaker 3: They're gonna need Garrett Crochet more than ever. There's obviously
Speaker 3: an injury toll of making any starting pitcher bet, but
Speaker 3: you're looking at one of the highest strikeout pitchers in baseball,
Speaker 3: and the only thing that is holding him back from
Speaker 3: every single projection system being the leader in strikeouts are
Speaker 3: those innings. And I think there is a lot of
Speaker 3: cushion on those innings, and I think there's a lot
Speaker 3: of value on that. That's the other thing. If Garrett
Speaker 3: Crochet was like four to one or like second in strikeouts,
Speaker 3: this might feel.
Speaker 4: A little bit different.
Speaker 3: We're talking close to ten to one right now on
Speaker 3: this bet. So this is my absolute favorite of any
Speaker 3: of these. When you talk about awards or you know,
Speaker 3: season long stat projecting type of things, I love Garrett
Speaker 3: Croche to lead the league in strikeouts.
Speaker 1: CARDI I'd be very curious at what you.
Speaker 3: Have to say about this one, because I laid out
Speaker 3: using your projection system some of what's on Crochet. What
Speaker 3: do you think about placing this bet.
Speaker 2: I like it for basically the reason that that you said,
Speaker 2: you know, innings are are not even something that most
Speaker 2: projection systems are projecting directly, like I'm not. I'm just
Speaker 2: using ATC's basically aggregate innings projections. We don't know which
Speaker 2: pictures are going to stay healthy, Like the innings are
Speaker 2: just kind of like this guy hasn't really done it
Speaker 2: before he could get hurt.
Speaker 4: We're going to play conservative.
Speaker 2: We don't know if Crochet is one of the guys
Speaker 2: goes over two hundred innings, like he has the stuff
Speaker 2: easily to be the leader. So yeah, if you're getting
Speaker 2: great odds on it, then then I like it because
Speaker 2: on a per rating basis, Crochet should certainly be better
Speaker 2: than ten to one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and right now plus eight point fifty in some
Speaker 1: markets I've seen has even gone down to So this
Speaker 1: is one where you know, one less guy. And Garrett
Speaker 1: Cole too now enters into that conversation too, so you
Speaker 1: can see all of a sudden, when the field starts
Speaker 1: to whittle down, all of a sudden, less competition. I
Speaker 1: think the innings is clearly the only thing we have
Speaker 1: to worry about here. But I'm with you, Wash, I'm
Speaker 1: not super worried, and I'm starting to really buy the
Speaker 1: Red Sox here. I have him in a parlay for
Speaker 1: a couple division. I like to do those. They're fun.
Speaker 1: You throw a ten bucks, you can win a couple grand.
Speaker 1: I got real close on two NFL ones last year,
Speaker 1: one of which I did get late on a redo
Speaker 1: that was a very nice return. But one of them
Speaker 1: was I think it was like twenty bucks or something.
Speaker 1: It would have brought back three grand, and I missed
Speaker 1: it by one division. One division I got wrong. Very frustrating,
Speaker 1: but it's fun. Nonetheless, this is the ride we take here.
Speaker 1: Let's also go back to Cardi here for another one
Speaker 1: of his picks. Before we do, I want to get
Speaker 1: to some questions also that I have in the chat
Speaker 1: right here from tough talk with teachers for end of
Speaker 1: the show. Here, would you keep both Gunner and Trey
Speaker 1: Turner in a keeper league? Cardi? Let's ask you this
Speaker 1: question here. What do you think about Trey Turner and Gunner?
Speaker 1: I know Gunner is dealing with some health issues right now.
Speaker 1: Trey Turner, you know, obviously a slow start last year,
Speaker 1: but things kind of came back around. I feel comfortable
Speaker 1: keeping both these guys. If I can only keep one,
Speaker 1: I'm keeping Gunner. But what are your thoughts here.
Speaker 4: It kind of depends on what your alternatives are. How
Speaker 4: many tempers? I mean, yeah, they're both worth keeping in
Speaker 4: the right situation.
Speaker 2: You're worried about Gunner's health, You're worried about Turner a
Speaker 2: little bit, like he doesn't project as well as he
Speaker 2: has in past years. But but yeah, if they if
Speaker 2: they kind of set up as your best guy, sure,
Speaker 2: I have no problem with that.
Speaker 1: Next question here, don't give him the stick? Has one
Speaker 1: for us we love? Don't give him the stick? Would
Speaker 1: you would like to get our opinion about rp's and
Speaker 1: a twelve team headhead categories league generally like to wait
Speaker 1: until at least the six round of Chase says was
Speaker 1: seeing rping going earlier in the mock drafts. Here's the
Speaker 1: thing for me, Welsh is if you have a mandatory
Speaker 1: RP spots that matters a little bit more. I'm more
Speaker 1: apt to be a little bit more aggresive at least
Speaker 1: get one guy. If not, you know, then I'm more
Speaker 1: apt to wait and let the saves kind of fall
Speaker 1: where they may. I like going late on the choices
Speaker 1: and the Romanos and the Fairbanks and just maybe get
Speaker 1: three guys and just kind of have some bodies in
Speaker 1: there for those two RP spots. You are more of
Speaker 1: a go get a closer early and you tend to
Speaker 1: like to lock one in from what I've seen, especially
Speaker 1: you a little bit more I did the head cats.
Speaker 1: I'm more of a points fella. Where do you think
Speaker 1: is kind of the sweet spot this year? With the
Speaker 1: pool looking the way it is.
Speaker 3: I mean, I think like if you're playing in an NFBC,
Speaker 3: you're gonna see, like, you know, closures going between the
Speaker 3: second and third round, you might start seeing you know,
Speaker 3: there's a class A, he's a hater into the fourth round,
Speaker 3: So then I think you're gonna see a brunt start
Speaker 3: pushing around the fifth sixth. I don't need to get
Speaker 3: the top guys. I really love Andris Munios. That's probably
Speaker 3: like that top is the bottom of the top tier
Speaker 3: of the first closure that I want. I think there's
Speaker 3: a bunch of value later. Kyle Finigan is still being
Speaker 3: ranked low. Ryan Presley is still ranked really low in
Speaker 3: a lot in ADP. He's like two forty right now
Speaker 3: across an aggregate of ADP. I think there's a lot
Speaker 3: of late closers, plus guys like AJ puck. I want
Speaker 3: to get one, but follow the runs, pay attention to
Speaker 3: the runs. Seven or eight closers go off the board,
Speaker 3: then start paying attention. That's why I'm going to start
Speaker 3: targeting a guy like Andres Munos.
Speaker 1: But I don't want to.
Speaker 3: Be pushed if I have to to be drafting closers
Speaker 3: in the floor round.
Speaker 1: Got a Crochet question here, since we're just talking about him,
Speaker 1: let's talk about this. Drafting Crochet at twenty two early
Speaker 1: head to had points of strikeouts are worth a lot.
Speaker 1: It's not crazy to me, but he is going at
Speaker 1: thirty six overall, more of a third round ish kind
Speaker 1: of guy. CARDI, what do you think here? Do you
Speaker 1: think it would pay to be more aggressive on Crochet
Speaker 1: or I mean this is almost a whole round ahead early.
Speaker 4: It's tough.
Speaker 2: I mean, like we said before with with Welsh's bet,
Speaker 2: like Crochet's talent is elite, Like he's probably a top
Speaker 2: or three pitcher in baseball. It's just like how deep
Speaker 2: is he going to you know, how many innings he's
Speaker 2: going to be able to throw? And pitching in Fenway's
Speaker 2: not ideal. So twenty's probably a little high for me
Speaker 2: when you weigh the risk, but I mean, I wouldn't
Speaker 2: be surprised if he pays that off.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's tough.
Speaker 3: It's tough actually comparing against the guy who's going consensus four.
Speaker 3: I have Garrett Crochet at four in my ranks, but
Speaker 3: Logan Gilbert is the consensus four guy. And you want
Speaker 3: to talk about consistency and innings. So you're battling this
Speaker 3: upside potential down there's a downside to Gare Crochet pitching
Speaker 3: in Boston, like like Derek said, but then you've got
Speaker 3: all this upside versus this floor with not I don't
Speaker 3: want to say there's not upside. There's still continuous upside
Speaker 3: with with Gilbert as he continues to change up this
Speaker 3: repertoire and throwing splitters and stuff like that. But that's
Speaker 3: the battle that you're dealing with. It's like consistency of
Speaker 3: Logan Gilbert or upside of Crochet. I did take Crochet
Speaker 3: in the second round of my tout draft, but it
Speaker 3: was bigger. It was fifteen team. I think I was
Speaker 3: a little bit towards the back. I wanted to make
Speaker 3: sure I got an sp and a few were coming
Speaker 3: off of the board, so twenty might be a little
Speaker 3: bit high, but maybe in reference if like five or
Speaker 3: six pitchers are already off the board, you know, and
Speaker 3: maybe he's got a long running you don't want to miss.
Speaker 3: But I probably am not taking him at twenty to
Speaker 3: be honest.
Speaker 1: Let's get back to some of the wagers. Hero's go
Speaker 1: back to Derek speaking of Logan Gilbert. Logan Gilbert to
Speaker 1: lead the league in wins. Now, the Seattle Mariners would
Speaker 1: serve themselves a little bit better to possibly score some
Speaker 1: more runs. I want to say, at home last year
Speaker 1: when they scored three or more runs, they were forty
Speaker 1: three and seven. Just get them three runs. That's all
Speaker 1: we're asking for. Let's talk about Logan Gilbert, Derek and
Speaker 1: what you see ahead for him in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Logan Gilbert's lead to the league of wins
Speaker 2: at draftkins. You can get it at thirty five to
Speaker 2: one right now. You look at projections and it's like, okay,
Speaker 2: why not this number. You look at who the bad
Speaker 2: is projecting to win games this year. Logan Gilbert projects
Speaker 2: a virtual tie per second at thirteen thirteen wins. There's
Speaker 2: a handful of guys there. There's one guy at fourteen wins,
Speaker 2: and most of those other guys are projected or are
Speaker 2: priced more at like ten to one.
Speaker 4: Thirty five to one.
Speaker 2: For Gilbert, I think is great, you know, like you said,
Speaker 2: the innings are there. He's very efficient, so he can
Speaker 2: go deep into games, which is always great forgetting wins.
Speaker 4: The talent level is elite, but without like the.
Speaker 2: Kind of crazy Garrett Crochet stuff that makes you worry
Speaker 2: about injuries in today's today's kind of environment.
Speaker 4: Obviously, any pitcher can get injured. It's not like we
Speaker 4: can predict it at all.
Speaker 2: But you feel a little more comfortable about a guy
Speaker 2: like Gilbert than you do about a guy like Crochet
Speaker 2: being able to pitch a full season. And the bat
Speaker 2: has it sees this year, especially with the Cole News,
Speaker 2: as like a very a year with a lot of parody,
Speaker 2: like it only has two teams projected for more than
Speaker 2: ninety wins. It has the Mariners projected for the fourth
Speaker 2: most wins in baseball, kind of at the top of
Speaker 2: that next heap, after the Dodgers and the.
Speaker 4: Braves and so so.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you're giving me thirty five to one on
Speaker 2: logan Gilbert when he's basically projected for the Tide for
Speaker 2: the second most on average.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're giving me a good number. I'll take it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly does look like a good number. And
Speaker 1: look with his numbers from last year, they were pretty spectacular.
Speaker 1: Logan Gilbert was an app rock star stud in fantasy
Speaker 1: last year and in reality. And look at the intensity
Speaker 1: on the face that was the same face that Welsh
Speaker 1: made every Logan Gilbert Stark where he just could not
Speaker 1: believe how good Logan Gilbert was.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the biggest egg on my face too is last year.
Speaker 3: I mean I remember me and you know we're talking
Speaker 3: about it's like if you know, if you're gonna rely
Speaker 3: on this splitter, it was like you want the fastball
Speaker 3: to be this dominant fastball, and it's just like he
Speaker 3: just keeps making it happen and those are the questions
Speaker 3: and he's a workhorse. I'd say I made this bet
Speaker 3: like I got this fo a little bit early from
Speaker 3: Cardi for this show, and I one hundred percent made
Speaker 3: this bet because also you're just you make the season
Speaker 3: long bets, you know, depending what you know world you're in,
Speaker 3: if you're looking to have some fun season long bets.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure there's one that's more fun than this.
Speaker 3: Thirty five to one, a guy that's gonna push two
Speaker 3: hundred innings. You can play to the wins. You're hoping
Speaker 3: the offense is going to pick up. And I think
Speaker 3: I just think there's a great potential return on this,
Speaker 3: Like if there's gonna if you're gonna make a list
Speaker 3: of four or five guys that are going to lead
Speaker 3: the league and wins, I think Gilbert has to be
Speaker 3: up there. And there's a reason why he's so lauded
Speaker 3: in fantasy as well this year. So I think this
Speaker 3: is a great, great pick. This is I mean, if
Speaker 3: I'm again putting your investment in pitching season long props
Speaker 3: is like the scariest thing. Crochet and Gilbert I think
Speaker 3: are two really really fun ones.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's get to our first super chat here of
Speaker 1: the day. Taylor only can keep two? Who would you keep?
Speaker 1: Strider Glass Now McClanahan, franber Valdez, Sandy al Contra de
Speaker 1: gram or Michael King can keep in hold like in Dynasty.
Speaker 1: So it's a long time here for one of these.
Speaker 1: So only can keep two of these guys? Now, look,
Speaker 1: you're gonna miss Strider for most of this season, Glass
Speaker 1: now Never.
Speaker 3: No, Stryder's only gonna miss April. He should be back
Speaker 3: in May.
Speaker 1: We'll say late May. Let's be good part of the sea.
Speaker 1: Yeah sure, Glass now Never gives you one hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty innings. McLanahan just had his arm remade, so it's
Speaker 1: santy al contra. Those are the two most intriguing ones
Speaker 1: to me on this list now that they've just been
Speaker 1: reborn with the new arms. So well, you can only
Speaker 1: keep two who are the two year keeping.
Speaker 3: The context of how this is being asked, if this
Speaker 3: was like, you can only have two keepers and that's
Speaker 3: all you're keeping, then my answer would probably lean like
Speaker 3: a little bit more towards like a redraft standpoint. So
Speaker 3: then I might be like, well, you know, I might
Speaker 3: push King into gram but obviously I'm assuming this is
Speaker 3: a bigger keeper standpoint. I'm gonna go Michael King and
Speaker 3: Strider be just because like, I know you're gonna miss
Speaker 3: a month. I don't want to play against what you
Speaker 3: can win now. But like Strider could be the number
Speaker 3: one pitcher in baseball, he's gonna miss a month. If
Speaker 3: he gets back to where he was, you have a
Speaker 3: huge showing through the back of the year and you
Speaker 3: get to keep him next year. And Michael King, I think,
Speaker 3: is in a great spot if you wanted to knock
Speaker 3: Michael King off for Shane McClanahan. I also think McClanahan
Speaker 3: is one of those. But Strider McClanahan puts you in
Speaker 3: a weird spot where maybe you're a little bit behind early.
Speaker 3: But I do think like long, long term, if this
Speaker 3: was dynasty, pure dynasty, because he says hold like a dynasty.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's no con tractors holding. Got Look, Grom's too
Speaker 1: old to be captain. He hasn't thrown one hundred and
Speaker 1: in five years. Like, I'm not not coming close to that. Derek,
Speaker 1: Where do you land on this one? We've got some
Speaker 1: different opinions. I'm going with the two guys who have
Speaker 1: just been fixed. One of us just want to Cy
Speaker 1: young two years ago, and I think people forget that
Speaker 1: Sandi al Contra is that good and he's probably gonna
Speaker 1: be on his way out of Miami sooner than later
Speaker 1: to a contending team. Where do you land on this?
Speaker 1: This is tough. There's a lot of talent here.
Speaker 4: Yeah, a lot of talent to pick from.
Speaker 2: I think you have to do Strider, I mean not
Speaker 2: going to miss a ton of time this year could
Speaker 2: I mean before last year he was being drafted rightfully,
Speaker 2: so as as the top pitcher in fantasy by like
Speaker 2: a huge margin, like nobody even touched him projection wise,
Speaker 2: I think you have to take him, especially if this
Speaker 2: is long term, and then if it's like a dynasty
Speaker 2: kind of thing, just give him.
Speaker 4: A clean and I'll take the risks.
Speaker 1: It's fine. Yeah, all right, here's a fun one, and
Speaker 1: I mean fun in air quotes Chris Derek Joe. If
Speaker 1: you had to take a flyer on one of these
Speaker 1: old farts, he called them aging legends. I'm gonna call
Speaker 1: them old farts. Who who you got, Verlander or Scherzer, Cardi,
Speaker 1: Who are you taking a shot on?
Speaker 2: I don't mind taking a shot on either where they're
Speaker 2: being drafted late. Give me Verlander, but it's not a
Speaker 2: strong Give me Verlander other one.
Speaker 1: Welch, how about you? Yeah?
Speaker 3: Then Cardi said it really well, because it's like both
Speaker 3: of them are just free. They're free ninety nine. I'll
Speaker 3: probably go with you know, justin Fartlander there if you're
Speaker 3: looking for the old farts, just because of the ballpark factor.
Speaker 3: I think that's really beneficial. So I'll probably go with
Speaker 3: Verlander here, but suresher did look pretty good.
Speaker 1: All right, We're going to continue to take questions the
Speaker 1: rest of the day too. I want to get to
Speaker 1: Welsh's other bet here real fast, so let's go back
Speaker 1: to Michael tolia of the Colorado Rockies. The home run
Speaker 1: total is twenty three and a half. Welsh, you like
Speaker 1: the power of this young man. I assume this is
Speaker 1: an over for you.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is It's always an over for for me.
Speaker 1: Is it the over that's there for the unders? Uh?
Speaker 3: Huh exactly. I can't bet too many unders here. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I mean this one is not as sexy of any
Speaker 3: of them. And this one falls along the lines of
Speaker 3: that tough question I kind of had at the top
Speaker 3: of like, if you're doing a season long bet at
Speaker 3: minus money, you know what's the play. I know a
Speaker 3: lot of people have fun and like to pair a
Speaker 3: couple of these together. I had one of those season
Speaker 3: long bet. I'm probably going a couple units. I just
Speaker 3: really like the Michael Tolian numbers right now. He hit
Speaker 3: twenty five in twenty twenty four in just one hundred
Speaker 3: and sixteen games while hitting just too eighteen. And I
Speaker 3: know that's definitely gonna be like a focal point of
Speaker 3: what everybody's talking about. I love and again, if you've
Speaker 3: heard like me talking in videos, I've talked about the
Speaker 3: value of him. I love the underlying bat profile. He
Speaker 3: had almost eighteen percent barrel rate. That's elite of elite,
Speaker 3: over fifty percent hard hit rate. I mean again, elite
Speaker 3: of elite. He also had expected batting average close to
Speaker 3: twenty five points higher than his actual batting average of
Speaker 3: two forty four. And that's a big thing for me.
Speaker 3: If Michael Tolia is hitting in the two forties, he's
Speaker 3: smashing this. He's not getting the twenty five, he's not
Speaker 3: getting the thirties, probably getting thirty five. He finished last
Speaker 3: season in the second half of the season with a
Speaker 3: two thirty five average. Now you do have to watch
Speaker 3: like a lot of Colorado. Obviously, the home ballpark is
Speaker 3: an advantage, and they can have split issues. There's a
Speaker 3: little bit of a split issue. He hit two thirty
Speaker 3: five at home last year. He only hit two o
Speaker 3: two on the road. But check this out. Despite hitting
Speaker 3: two O two on the road, seventeen of his twenty
Speaker 3: five homers came on the road, So think about progression
Speaker 3: coming into this year. Now, projections they tell some different stories.
Speaker 3: If you look at like Steamer, ATC New Oopsie, they
Speaker 3: all have them at twenty five. So they've got him
Speaker 3: hitting this one Steamer and at twenty four. I'm sorry,
Speaker 3: Steamer and ATC have him at twenty five. The bat
Speaker 3: happens to be the one that is lower. The bat
Speaker 3: and the bat X have him at like twenty two
Speaker 3: and twenty one, and I think it's around like one
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty games. But you talk about the offensive
Speaker 3: profile with that barrel and hard hit, a higher expected
Speaker 3: batting average, the home ballpark factors, and overall progression. I
Speaker 3: really like this number. Maybe it's a little too thin
Speaker 3: as far as projections are going, but I think the
Speaker 3: games can come up a little bit. And I also
Speaker 3: think he's going to overplay the homers. This is what
Speaker 3: he is built for. And that hitting profile tells you
Speaker 3: as well. So twenty three and a half I hit.
Speaker 3: I saw it jumped up on DraftKings before the show
Speaker 3: at twenty four point five with plus money, So that's
Speaker 3: something to pay attention to. And yeah, as Mayer said,
Speaker 3: one of the biggest worries is the strikeout rate, and
Speaker 3: that's the thing that holds him back. I mean, a
Speaker 3: thirty plus percent strikeout rate is a concern, but that's
Speaker 3: why I'm betting on the hitting profile. Also the ballpark.
Speaker 3: You know, maybe this would be different. If this is
Speaker 3: like Seattle, I might not be playing this, but the
Speaker 3: home ballpark just plays very well in favor. I really
Speaker 3: like this on Michael Tolia now, and this is a
Speaker 3: thirty five plus home run bat when things are going okay,
Speaker 3: that you're getting ten homers less. So I'm in on
Speaker 3: Michael Tollia season long home run total twenty three and
Speaker 3: a half. I'll also play twenty four and a half
Speaker 3: at plus money.
Speaker 1: All Right, Derek Cardy, before we let you go, I
Speaker 1: got a question for you, because this is my approach
Speaker 1: and I want to run it by you. For twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five, I'm betting Showy Otani to win National League MVP,
Speaker 1: just because well it's clearly an easy path. And then
Speaker 1: I am going to pair it in a little tiny,
Speaker 1: you know, duo parlay with different folks from the America League.
Speaker 1: I got one with Bobby Witt. I've got one with
Speaker 1: Aaron Judge just gonna go through some lists. What do
Speaker 1: you think about that approach this year of just kind
Speaker 1: of bowing down and giving up on National League MVP
Speaker 1: and saying, Okay, it's Otani. It's very difficult to beat Otani,
Speaker 1: especially now he's gonna be pitching again, and then just
Speaker 1: saying instead of just betting straight out one of those
Speaker 1: guys in the America League, just constantly pairing him with
Speaker 1: Otani to get better odds.
Speaker 2: I see the appeal of it, and I see being like, Okay,
Speaker 2: like obviously Otani personally, I don't think the odds you're
Speaker 2: going to be offered on that are gonna be plus
Speaker 2: ev but I could be wrong. I mean, I think
Speaker 2: the books realize, like think Gotan is going to be
Speaker 2: the MVP. He's probably gonna be the MVP. I don't
Speaker 2: think they're giving you. I don't think they're giving you
Speaker 2: the number you need well.
Speaker 1: Plus forty five. If I pair them with Bobby Witt
Speaker 1: right now at this plus two seventy five, I get
Speaker 1: plus eight hundred. Those are the two top guys of
Speaker 1: the board. That's a big jump on your guys. Pretty yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean.
Speaker 4: I get it, Like they're both great.
Speaker 2: It could easily happen, But to nail both MVPs like that,
Speaker 2: I would want more than plus eight hundred personally.
Speaker 1: Okay, that's fair enough. What would that number be?
Speaker 4: One injury in your dead like?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Well, and also o Tany's going to pitch more this year,
Speaker 3: so that puts a little bit more of a strain
Speaker 3: on potential misstime. If something were to go wrong, what
Speaker 3: would you want like twelve to one, thirteen to one
Speaker 3: if you were doing something like that, do you think
Speaker 3: that's a better return.
Speaker 4: I'd want to run the math on it, but yeah,
Speaker 4: i'd want.
Speaker 3: Something to do something like that.
Speaker 1: I got one for you if you didn't like that,
Speaker 1: Bobby wit one about Jose Ramires with Otani plus five
Speaker 1: thousand and five thirty five. How about that?
Speaker 3: Now you're just having fun.
Speaker 1: Hey, Matt, You know, look, I'm the big dog when
Speaker 1: it comes to these futures, you know it, Welsh And
Speaker 1: at a certain point I think we have to look
Speaker 1: and just be reasonable with ourselves and realize that when
Speaker 1: Otani's on the field, he is the greatest player that
Speaker 1: any of us have ever seen, will ever seen, probably
Speaker 1: has ever played in terms of talent and skill overall,
Speaker 1: and if he's pitching again, it's damn near impossible to
Speaker 1: beat him for this award. And look, it's plus money
Speaker 1: right now. It's not going to get better, most likely
Speaker 1: barring an injury. Derek Cardy, I wish you a very healthy,
Speaker 1: entire Major League Baseball season, not just for you, but
Speaker 1: for all of your teams as well. We appreciate you
Speaker 1: hanging out with us, obviously. Check out all this amazing
Speaker 1: work the bat the projections, all the incredible stuff that
Speaker 1: Derek does, ESPN, Fantasy roto, grinders, analytics, you name it.
Speaker 1: That'll do it for me. Joey P. We'll see you
Speaker 1: next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
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