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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast that action.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing out so spect we're saying it's a cash touchtop.

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Speaker 4: That's all we see.

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Speaker 5: Most gamble is when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 5: to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 4: And you want to back.

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Speaker 5: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Oh my god. That is how we are going to

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Speaker 4: start the podcast. Welcome to the Action Hour podcast podcast

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Speaker 4: I can't even speak right now, presented by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 4: am your host, Evin Abrams. I am joined by Brandon

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Speaker 4: Anderson for our NFL recap show for Week eighteen, and

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Speaker 4: we are going to do everything on the playoff picture.

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Speaker 4: We will discuss what we saw today. We will briefly

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Speaker 4: look ahead to Wildcard weekend where we'll get Brandon's hot

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Speaker 4: read for next week. We'll kind of talk about probably

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Speaker 4: each of the games as we sprinkle throughout the day.

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Speaker 4: Before we get started, I am just going to give

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Speaker 4: you the only thing I just tweeted out, which is

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Speaker 4: with the Ravens lost tonight, the playoff field is just insane.

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Speaker 4: So one preseason division favorite ended up on top, the Eagles,

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Speaker 4: the fewest in a season since two thousand and eight,

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Speaker 4: and with the Ravens loss, we now get two eleven

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Speaker 4: plus win total teams out of the playoffs with Casey

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Speaker 4: and Baltimore. If you wanted to do over ten, you

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Speaker 4: can include Detroit as well as the first time that

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Speaker 4: has happened since two thousand a playoff field truly unlike

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Speaker 4: any other Brandon before, we dive into Baltimore and Pittsburgh

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Speaker 4: and whatever the hell we just saw. What can you

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Speaker 4: make from this?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, honestly, I don't know how to separate

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Speaker 2: what we just saw from what you just said. Like

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Speaker 2: this final game, Game two seventy two, We've talked for months,

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Speaker 2: which game will it be? What will come down to?

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Speaker 2: And I feel like that game was kind of the

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Speaker 2: perfect way to end this, like in many ways a

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Speaker 2: mid off, we don't really know who's actually good, but

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Speaker 2: it still was entertaining and close all the way, lots

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Speaker 2: of purity, lots of goofiness. That sort of feels like

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Speaker 2: the season right and you know where we're down with

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Speaker 2: the regular season now, but we've got still, what is it,

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Speaker 2: thirteen games to go, and we might be in for

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Speaker 2: a whale of a playoff run. Because if that's the

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Speaker 2: way everything's been going, maybe that's how this's gonna keep

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Speaker 2: on going. We're gonna get probably more of these sort

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Speaker 2: of wild back and forth huge wings in the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: If this is how the regular season has gone, with

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Speaker 2: all the underdogs and none of the favorites winning in

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Speaker 2: the divisions, is that will be getting now in the playoffs? Also,

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Speaker 2: the big picture, when you're looking futures, are you looking

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Speaker 2: at long shots here? I think in one conference, the AFC,

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Speaker 2: you want long shots. I think the good teams are

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Speaker 2: in the NFC, but that also means that they're juicier

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Speaker 2: long shots in the NFC as well. So nothing really

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Speaker 2: makes sense this year. There are no Juggernauts waiting to

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Speaker 2: be taken down. There's just a lot of teams that

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Speaker 2: are happy to be here and we'll see what happens

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Speaker 2: from there. Somebody's gonna get it hot for a few weeks,

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Speaker 2: and I think it's gonna be a very wild ride,

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Speaker 2: much like the whole season has bad.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the Juggernauts are Sam Darnold and bow Nicks, And honestly,

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Speaker 4: if that doesn't say what we need to say, I

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Speaker 4: don't know what does. Let's just dive into this. So

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Speaker 4: as a true journalist, I feel like I rewrote my

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Speaker 4: story about forty two times. In the fourth quarter, I

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Speaker 4: was pretty sure the Ravens were on top, and of

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Speaker 4: course you have to delete everything. So the Steelers end

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Speaker 4: up winning the game twenty six twenty four. They cover

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Speaker 4: plus four and a half on clothes. We got a

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Speaker 4: bunch of Baltimore money right before kick in the last

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Speaker 4: hour or so, which pushed that to four and a half.

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Speaker 4: Total went over forty one and a half, which honestly

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Speaker 4: looked great to the under it was like thirteen ten

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Speaker 4: what felt like forever, and then we got a flu

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Speaker 4: of touchdowns a ton at the end there brings it

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Speaker 4: over the total. I guess the one thing I can

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Speaker 4: say is, let's just bring it to me. There's all

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Speaker 4: Without dk Met, the Steelers for seven quarters looked like

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Speaker 4: the team and that goes back to the Cleveland game,

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Speaker 4: the team that I thought they would look like without

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Speaker 4: their top target. They weren't efficient downfield. They were trying

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Speaker 4: to do a lot of dink and dunks to get

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Speaker 4: big yardage, and for a while I said to myself,

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Speaker 4: there's no way they're gonna get back in this game

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Speaker 4: if Baltimore does the thing, well, they did the thing,

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Speaker 4: which felt like twice in this game. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: toss it back to you before I kind of have

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Speaker 4: my kicker comment here. But what else do you take

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Speaker 4: away from this game? I mean it was utter chaos.

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Speaker 4: I think both defenses, eh, like the Ravens defense with

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Speaker 4: the Kyle Hamilton injury, they lost Wiggins for a little bit.

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Speaker 4: They were very vulnerable, which turned out to be a

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Speaker 4: bad deal letting up the Austin touchdown, et cetera. But

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Speaker 4: what else can you take from this game? Especially with

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Speaker 4: Houston now minus three and a half in Pittsburgh next

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Speaker 4: Monday night.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's gross. Where we're gonna spend all

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Speaker 2: the trying to talk ourselves into Pittsburgh. You can bank

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Speaker 2: on that right now, because that's the line, that's the

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Speaker 2: line that is just begging you to say, how sure,

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Speaker 2: how sure are you about Houston? And we just played

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Speaker 2: the raw ros spot, we got it over the line,

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Speaker 2: and now we're staring at playoff raw round, wondering does

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Speaker 2: that even exist anymore? Six straight playoff losses for Tomlin.

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Speaker 2: This game felt very much like exactly what the Steelers

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Speaker 2: season was, and exactly what the Ravens season was all

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Speaker 2: smashed into one game right like this to me, ten

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Speaker 2: out of ten Lamar season just start to finish. We

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Speaker 2: get opening Sunday night, right Bill's and Ravens this classic

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Speaker 2: forty one to forty game, these high high moments, huge

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Speaker 2: explosive plays, and then a heartbreaking Ravens loss. And that's

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Speaker 2: exactly where we get down the season in the middle

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Speaker 2: with key injuries to key players and Lamar Jackson disappearing

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Speaker 2: for a while. That's what did I just tell you

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Speaker 2: about the game where the season like it's the whole

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Speaker 2: entire thing that we got, and then this weird bookending

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Speaker 2: heartbreaking losses the way that Ravens seasons are doomed to

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Speaker 2: end lately. Where with the Steelers, we have really a

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Speaker 2: pretty good defensive performance for the most part, except for

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Speaker 2: the part where they forgot to cover the only receiver

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Speaker 2: the Ravens have with like a fifty mile radius on

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Speaker 2: the field twice in the fourth quarter on like the

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Speaker 2: exact same thing so much they look like a replay.

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Speaker 2: And it's interesting, you know, as we kind of get

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Speaker 2: ready to dig into the playoffs, now these games featuring

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Speaker 2: you know, this one and we'll get to the NFC

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Speaker 2: South one. You have to kind of prep both teams

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Speaker 2: for the playoffs because you don't necessarily know who's gonna

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Speaker 2: go through, so you're kind of double prepping. And on Pittsburgh,

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Speaker 2: one thing I noticed over and over man, their defense

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Speaker 2: has gotten a lot better since midseason. They move Jalen

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Speaker 2: Ramsey to safety, the defense ticked up, the run defense

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Speaker 2: get a lot better, but they still give up a

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Speaker 2: lot of explosives. So what happens tonight, pretty good defense

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Speaker 2: shutting down the run. Once they kind of got things

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Speaker 2: in check with Henry's second half, they weren't even really

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Speaker 2: letting Baltimore on the field, and then the explosives came

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Speaker 2: and looked like they're gonna do the season, and at

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Speaker 2: one point the second Baltimore touchdown that got it. I

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Speaker 2: think to twenty four to twenty as all I ready

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Speaker 2: to pull my hair out. We're on three straight hot reads.

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Speaker 2: I had hot read on this game, Steelers three and

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Speaker 2: a half and under forty three and a half. We

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Speaker 2: got like three points of CLV and then it was

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Speaker 2: gonna be Ravens by four and Over by half a

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Speaker 2: point on the hot red line it would have been

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Speaker 2: our third straight hot read week in a row that

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Speaker 2: we got hooked, and we got the double hook on

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Speaker 2: that once. I was about to go crazy. Thankfully the

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Speaker 2: Steelers got there for us. But just exactly what these

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Speaker 2: teams were. And here's a crazy stat for you. Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: has now won ten of thirteen games against the Ravens.

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Speaker 2: That's wild because think about how good the Ravens have

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Speaker 2: been this whole last era the Lamar Jackson, Like, that's

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Speaker 2: basically the whole Lamar Jackson. I know he's missed some

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Speaker 2: of those games, but you gotta win the games. Eleven

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Speaker 2: of those thirteen one score games. This is what the

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Speaker 2: Ravens and Steelers do. They play these goofy don't make sense,

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Speaker 2: Like you remember that was the whole thing with the

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Speaker 2: hot read. I have no analysis here. You just have

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Speaker 2: to bet the underdog. You bet on goofiness. And what

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Speaker 2: do we get? We get like the Plinko bouncing around

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Speaker 2: interception to TJ. A. Watt, We get the missed extra

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Speaker 2: point and the missfield goal at the end, we get

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Speaker 2: the long, weird open touchdowns with slipping down and blown coverages,

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Speaker 2: and then just get the like both teams tried their

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Speaker 2: darness to lose the game, and both teams didn't somehow.

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Speaker 2: And I know you have thoughts on the kicker too,

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Speaker 2: so obviously you can't do this game without both kickers.

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Speaker 2: Boswell blows it, then Loop blows it. What are your

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Speaker 2: thoughts on whole kicking fiasco? Late?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I believe the Boswell extra point center right,

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Speaker 4: Like you put the ball in the center and that's

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Speaker 4: how you kick it, and it goes wide right. And

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Speaker 4: then after the Isaiah likely catch, which at this point

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Speaker 4: we're probably just gonna forget, but actually one of the

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Speaker 4: more absurd plays that shouldn't be forgotten in this game

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Speaker 4: is what a great catch, What a great throw and

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Speaker 4: he got right into the middle of the secondary like

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Speaker 4: just a great play. But what I will say is this,

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Speaker 4: when Lamar took the knee, I kind of said to myself,

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Speaker 4: should he be setting up in the center versus taking

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Speaker 4: like the left hash or because I always feel like

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Speaker 4: when I watch kickers, it's easier for them to push it,

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Speaker 4: especially it was a decently close kick, and when you

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Speaker 4: center it up sometimes it's more difficult to go dead center,

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Speaker 4: especially when there's win. Now, if I've only seen the

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Speaker 4: loop field goal, I believe once at this point, but

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Speaker 4: it looked pretty bad. It looked like a pretty bad shank.

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Speaker 4: So maybe in this situation it doesn't matter as much.

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Speaker 4: But I was a little surprised for them to go

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Speaker 4: dead center because I feel like we always see the

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Speaker 4: misses when he's trying to be very very accurate to

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Speaker 4: go center, and he just completely shanked it on this one.

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Speaker 4: So that was just my initial analysis there. And I

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Speaker 4: will say one more thing before I give it to you.

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Speaker 4: They did on the broadcast. Make sure to tell us

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Speaker 4: that pregame, we knew the Catholic priests had come out

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Speaker 4: and blessed the field. I wasn't aware he blessed the

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Speaker 4: side of the end zone that Lup missed on. So

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Speaker 4: if anyone would like to take that to an extra

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Speaker 4: angle or an extra length there, they're more than welcome

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Speaker 4: to This game had absolutely everything. My wife walked in

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Speaker 4: when this game ended. She's a big Aaron Rodgers fan.

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Speaker 4: I literally had nothing to say. I needed a few

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Speaker 4: minutes to compose myself. This one was insane wild, What

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Speaker 4: a fun way to go into an unpredictable, ridiculous playoff picture.

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Speaker 4: But what else do you have with Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't you know, neither of us is a kicker.

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Speaker 2: I don't know where you want the ball, but to

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Speaker 2: me a non kicker, I want it down the middle.

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Speaker 2: But it certainly seems like kickers want either one of

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Speaker 2: the hashes the way that they're going to kick it

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Speaker 2: into it. And we just saw the kick mess earlier

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Speaker 2: with Boswell, so I don't know about that. The other

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Speaker 2: thing too, there was like twelve seconds left with the

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Speaker 2: time out, run a play like you can still gain yards.

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Speaker 2: You're at Hinz Field or whatever we're calling it now,

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Speaker 2: where kickers are always bad over the years. It's cold weather,

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Speaker 2: it's ugly, Like we already know kicks are hard. The

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Speaker 2: express seven or ten, you know yards you're gonna get, which,

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Speaker 2: by the way, you're gonna get. It's Pittsburgh's only trying

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Speaker 2: to keep you out of the end zone, so they're like, sure,

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Speaker 2: have your eight yards get tackled. Run the clock like

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Speaker 2: they're not going to try to stop that. Those eight

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Speaker 2: yards or whatever you get might have made the difference.

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Speaker 2: I don't know. Again, it's a pretty bad kick, so

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Speaker 2: maybe he's just gonna miss it either. Way, but you

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Speaker 2: never know with the psyche, you never know just how

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Speaker 2: many other domino effects come out of that. The other

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Speaker 2: play we didn't mention. Pretty much everything we've said was

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Speaker 2: like the fourth quarter, which just all went sideways. Before halftime,

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Speaker 2: the Steelers are down ten to three, The Ravens are

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Speaker 2: basically dominating the first half, and the Pittsburgh just kind

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Speaker 2: of lucky to hang around and we get the Dens

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Speaker 2: pass interference I think on purpose, frankly, with like two

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Speaker 2: seconds left, because smart play go ahead and make them

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Speaker 2: prove that they're going to actually go for it. I'm

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Speaker 2: usually an aggressive guy and usually go for the points guy.

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Speaker 2: I kind of thought Pittsburgh should take in the field goal,

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Speaker 2: even in the spot they run a play, literally run

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Speaker 2: a play to the left that had no shot, and

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Speaker 2: they get nothing out of it. I don't know about

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Speaker 2: that decision, but you know, like part of the reason

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Speaker 2: you go for fourth down at the goal line is

250
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Speaker 2: because if you get stopped, you get the other team

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Speaker 2: is stuck on the two, and now your defense hopefully

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Speaker 2: holds them and you get the ball back in better

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Speaker 2: field goal position or field position. None of that matters

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Speaker 2: when it's halftime, Like you just it's not momentum, it's

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Speaker 2: you just lost both sides of the coin there. We

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Speaker 2: saw that. What was the game we saw that the

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Speaker 2: Seattle game, I think where they went for the fourth

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Speaker 2: down early and then ended up getting the ball back

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Speaker 2: a short field touchdown. So no benefit to that for Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, man. We said coming into this game, like,

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Speaker 2: would either coach make it through this game? Would with

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Speaker 2: the losing quarterback make it through this game? I don't

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Speaker 2: know what. How can you make a franchise defining decision

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Speaker 2: after that? After that, like goofy flip a coin a

265
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Speaker 2: thousand times, I don't know what you do with that.

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Speaker 2: But it for the Steelers to win or lose kind

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Speaker 2: of whatever. We're being honest. The Steelers are not winning

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. Maybe they win a game in the playoffs,

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Speaker 2: maybe they don't. This mattered a lot more to Baltimore.

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Speaker 2: Like Baltimore had a shot to get in with a

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Speaker 2: run game that was thriving, the defense that was kind

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Speaker 2: of figuring things out with Lamar Jackson pretty much looking

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Speaker 2: healthy for once in a wide open AFC. It was

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Speaker 2: right there for them. They could have reset the whole season.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna have to have some conversations, like they really

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Speaker 2: blew this golden opportunity for them, and Baltimore losing matters

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Speaker 2: way more in this game than it does Pittsburgh winning.

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh winning is like the pebble of the ocean. Baltimore

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Speaker 2: losing could be a huge title wave that might have

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Speaker 2: shaken up everything. And now just one more name like

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Speaker 2: all the others out of the mix.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, b ironic though if they if dk Metcalf comes

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Speaker 4: back to the team, they look better on offense and

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Speaker 4: all of a sudden, you know, maybe they make a

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Speaker 4: little bit of a mini run here, But nonetheless, let's

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Speaker 4: keep rowling here. So we're gonna do this a little

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Speaker 4: bit by division just to and then we're gonna we're

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Speaker 4: just gonna try to group these games together to make

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Speaker 4: it go a little bit faster. So we're gonna talk

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Speaker 4: the NFC West right now. I'll do both scores, which

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Speaker 4: is Seattle wins against San Francisco thirteen to three, covers

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Speaker 4: minus two and a half when closed total under forty

293
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Speaker 4: eight and a half. And then the Rams play the Cardinals.

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Speaker 4: They won thirty seven to twenty cover minus fourteen and

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Speaker 4: a half in home total over forty nine and a half.

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Speaker 4: I'll just say, from my perspective, Sam Darnold, even though

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Speaker 4: maybe he didn't have the best game here, I think

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Speaker 4: the turnaround from what we saw his first six seasons,

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Speaker 4: for what he's done in Minnesota and Seattle super super impressive.

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Speaker 4: I mean, twenty eight and seven last two years, most

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Speaker 4: straight up wins by any quarterback in the NFL, twenty

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Speaker 4: three and eleven against the spread, also best, Like, he

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Speaker 4: has done a very very good job at putting Minnesota

304
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Speaker 4: and Seattle in positions to do well in the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: That's kind of what we got here. Seattle's got the

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Speaker 4: one seed. They've got home field for the fourth time

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Speaker 4: in franchise history. Listen, the team who probably needed the rest,

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Speaker 4: which was San Francisco, doesn't get it. The team like Seattle,

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Speaker 4: who has been, you know, some momentum looking good, gets

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Speaker 4: the week off. So interesting nonetheless, but what do you

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Speaker 4: take away from these games?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Seattle's defense just incredible, incredible performance. Like, think about

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Speaker 2: the difference in the last few weeks. We saw Rams

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Speaker 2: Seahawks and we saw Niner Seahawks take the Seahawks out

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Speaker 2: of it. Those are the two best offenses in the

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Speaker 2: league for the last like two months of the season,

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Speaker 2: Rams and Nineris in some order, and the Rams put

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Speaker 2: up like five six hundred yards of offense. Matt Stafford was

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Speaker 2: dealing and then they blew it and the Seahawks won.

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Speaker 2: This was a very different sort of Seattle win. This

321
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Speaker 2: was a dominant wired o wire win. Three hundred and

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Speaker 2: sixty one yards to one seventy three. They doubled up

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Speaker 2: sandfran and yardage. They held this machine of an offense,

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Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan offense to one hundred seventy five yards, nine

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Speaker 2: first down single digits, thirty six percent success right, and

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Speaker 2: of course just three points. Forget all the fancy numbers.

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Speaker 2: Three points is the least points ever scored by Kyle

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Speaker 2: Shanahan coach team. It ties for his lease since his

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Speaker 2: debut as a coach, fewest yards ever in the regular season.

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Speaker 2: The only time his team has had less yards was

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Speaker 2: that NFC Championship game when they literally had no quarterback.

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Speaker 2: They ran out of quarterbacks and they still only had

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Speaker 2: nine fewer yards in that game. Then they had this

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Speaker 2: game game at home for the one seed, and yeah,

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Speaker 2: it really it really felt deflating for san Fran coming

336
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Speaker 2: out of that game like your season's not over, but

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Speaker 2: it really felt over after that. The Purty hit on

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Speaker 2: the very last play, it looks like a stinger on

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Speaker 2: his left side shouldn't really affect him, but look, we've

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Speaker 2: seen Purty take sort of that type of hit. That's

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Speaker 2: the game I just talked about. And if you get

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Speaker 2: a hit like that in the game, you might not

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Speaker 2: get to play again after that. And mac Jones was

344
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Speaker 2: not putting this offense in shape the way that party has.

345
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Speaker 2: But I know he did well, but it's not been

346
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Speaker 2: that same level. Trent Williams did not play in this game.

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Speaker 2: That mattered his hamstring injury. That makes him uncertain to me.

348
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Speaker 2: Those are the two most important players on the team.

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Speaker 2: I know how good Christian McCaffrey is. I know he's

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Speaker 2: not replaceable. You can't have a Niners offense worrying the

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Speaker 2: way it should without Trent Williams, without Brock Purty. And

352
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Speaker 2: now those two guys are banged up and I have

353
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Speaker 2: to assume gonna play because it's the playoffs, winner go home.

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Speaker 2: But will they finish? Will they finish the game? I

355
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:38,639
Speaker 2: don't really know. Seattle are Seattle is the one seed.

356
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Speaker 2: They don't feel necessarily like they should be the one seed.

357
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Speaker 2: But they did the thing. They got the play. So

358
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Speaker 2: you think of the Rams game and all those little

359
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,440
Speaker 2: plays that went their way, the weird two point conversion

360
00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,880
Speaker 2: that the different penalties that flew their way, that's all right,

361
00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:56,280
Speaker 2: you get the win. The win is the win. This

362
00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:59,240
Speaker 2: was not that this was a dominant game. It never

363
00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:02,359
Speaker 2: totally felt comfortable because the score line stayed close, but

364
00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:06,479
Speaker 2: Seattle defense just was amazing. I think Seattle was zero

365
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Speaker 2: of three in the red zone, so otherwise this could

366
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Speaker 2: have been over much earlier and much easier. And that's

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Speaker 2: really what it felt like. So do I trust Arnold

368
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Speaker 2: coming out of this, No tell until he's winning a

369
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Speaker 2: Super Bowl, still know. But he didn't make the mistakes

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Speaker 2: because they played on the front foot. This is the

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Speaker 2: Seattle script. Let your defense play well, stay on the

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Speaker 2: front foot, let Jason make some plays, and they ran

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Speaker 2: all over the Niners like the Niners defense couldn't get

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Speaker 2: off the field at all and definitely look like a

375
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Speaker 2: problem going forward in the playoffs against other real offenses.

376
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Speaker 2: You're going to play better offenses than Seattle, who really,

377
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:47,679
Speaker 2: frankly struggled a lot going into this game offensively for

378
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Speaker 2: like the last couple of months. Really, so Seattle now

379
00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:55,720
Speaker 2: one seed at home. They lost their last home playoff game,

380
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:59,159
Speaker 2: but that was twenty twenty season, no fans during the

381
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Speaker 2: COVID year. I believe they have won ten straight home

382
00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:06,280
Speaker 2: playoff games before that one. So ten straight home playoff

383
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:10,879
Speaker 2: games with fans. Seattle's the winner there, now two games

384
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Speaker 2: away from doing that again and then going back to

385
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Speaker 2: where they just played, back to San Francisco for the

386
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,400
Speaker 2: Super Bowl. Wouldn't that be a fun atmosphere. I don't

387
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Speaker 2: know if there are like local San Francisco type fans

388
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Speaker 2: going to Super Bowl. That's probably not the sort of

389
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:25,919
Speaker 2: people that show up at a game like that. But

390
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:29,520
Speaker 2: what do we get like local fans rooting against the

391
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Speaker 2: rival division team. Kind of a weird factor that could

392
00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:35,760
Speaker 2: play in. But look, if the defense is that good

393
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Speaker 2: and Darnald only has to make a few plays, can

394
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Speaker 2: he do that? I think he's earned enough credit, like

395
00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:44,480
Speaker 2: you said, in the turnaround his career. So yeah, that

396
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,679
Speaker 2: was the takeaway there, Niners. I think, are you know,

397
00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 2: tough turnaround to come off of a deflating win like that,

398
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Speaker 2: injuries and have to go to Philadelphia now Rams game.

399
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:57,240
Speaker 2: Not much to say there. They can run up the

400
00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,320
Speaker 2: score now where they feel like it, and I will

401
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:00,679
Speaker 2: have more to say able the Rams when we get

402
00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:02,360
Speaker 2: to the Hot Red later. Yeah.

403
00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 4: And just to be clear, so San Francisco, like you

404
00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:07,360
Speaker 4: said in Philadelphia, that line, the Eagles are favored by

405
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 4: three and a half at the moment, and then you've

406
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,160
Speaker 4: got the Rams, who are now on the road since

407
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:15,800
Speaker 4: in the Division facing the Carolina Panthers, that line was

408
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 4: as high as ten and a half, now down to ten.

409
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,880
Speaker 4: At ten and a half, it would be the largest

410
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 4: road favorite in the playoffs and NFL history. At ten,

411
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 4: it matches the Bucks and Washington game back in twenty

412
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 4: twenty one by the Bucks, but only by eight points,

413
00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,359
Speaker 4: so we will see how that goes there. I will

414
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,920
Speaker 4: say this because Stucky had asked me on the favorites

415
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 4: earlier about these really crappy home teams that get a

416
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:44,320
Speaker 4: lot of points in the playoffs. Well, they've done kind

417
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,200
Speaker 4: of decent. I mean, home dogs in the Wildcard round

418
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:47,960
Speaker 4: since two thousand and nine are ten to five and

419
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,520
Speaker 4: two against the spread, covered by three point one points

420
00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 4: per game. Home in the wildcard win a fifty win

421
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,600
Speaker 4: percentage or less five and one against the spread. So

422
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:01,640
Speaker 4: I mean, I think this is a very very different scenario.

423
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 4: We've already seen Rams Panthers. So we will get to

424
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 4: your hot red and all of your opinions on these

425
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 4: games later, but I figure I would toss that in.

426
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 4: All right, let's keep rolling here.

427
00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 2: You have something else, I just say, Niners Eagles to

428
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,160
Speaker 2: me is the opposite of a hot read. We need

429
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,360
Speaker 2: injury news on that game. You need to find out

430
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 2: is Trent playing, is Party of playing? Is Kittle playing?

431
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 2: Is Lane Johnson? Definitely good to go like that will

432
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 2: probably end up being the last game that I bet

433
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 2: because we need information badly on both sides. So if anything,

434
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 2: I would take the three and a half just because

435
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 2: it's above the hook right now, I make that closer

436
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 2: to like one and a half, So I would definitely

437
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,439
Speaker 2: lean sanfran But I'm not betting that game at all

438
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 2: until we get a lot more injury info.

439
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 4: All right, Time for everyone's favorite division, the NFC South.

440
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:51,440
Speaker 4: So the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win sixteen fourteen, while Carolina

441
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,120
Speaker 4: covers the plus three on closed total under forty two

442
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 4: and a half. And then Atlanta wins nineteen seventeen. New

443
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 4: Orleans covers the plus four on total also under forty

444
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 4: three and a half. Just an absolute perfect ending to

445
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 4: the NFC South where both favorites win, neither cover team

446
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:12,119
Speaker 4: under five hundred goes to the playoffs on back to

447
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:16,120
Speaker 4: back losses. It just absolutely set up the way everyone

448
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,679
Speaker 4: saw coming. I mean, Carolina ends the season with a

449
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 4: negative sixty nine point differential at eight and nine. Just

450
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 4: for fun sake, the Giants ended at minus fifty eight,

451
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 4: so Carolina eleven points worse than the Giants, who basically

452
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 4: had the number one pick two and a half weeks ago.

453
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,159
Speaker 4: Carolina also didn't win a single game as a favorite

454
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 4: this year, still in the playoffs, and they were as

455
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,399
Speaker 4: high as twenty to one to win the division earlier

456
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:43,639
Speaker 4: in the year, and they end up coming through I

457
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 4: mean from both of these games, I mean, Tampa doesn't

458
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 4: deserve it. They should have won one of these games

459
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 4: down the stretch. That would have made this a lot easier.

460
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 4: But they also failed to cover nine in a row

461
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,679
Speaker 4: to end the season, Like, get the hell out of

462
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 4: my way. You don't deserve to be in the field.

463
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 4: They end five twelve against the spread worst mark in

464
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 4: the NFL. Time to retool and figure that all out,

465
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 4: because they looked like the Eagles did a few years

466
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:10,639
Speaker 4: ago when they were just flailing down the stretch. They

467
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 4: might have won, but that said to me way more

468
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:14,199
Speaker 4: about Carolina than Tampa.

469
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 1: Yeah.

470
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 2: I had very similar notes on both these games. I

471
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 2: also have in my notes the perfect NFC South ending.

472
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 2: Here's my version. The best team in the division was

473
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 2: by far the better team, but lost anyway. That's the Saints.

474
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:29,879
Speaker 2: They had three hundred and forty yards to two hundred

475
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 2: and eight. The Falcons had two hundred yards five point

476
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 2: two to three point four yards per play. Atlanta had

477
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,199
Speaker 2: a thirty three percent success rate in this game. The

478
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,640
Speaker 2: Falcons were clearly much worse, but Saints blew the game

479
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 2: on special teams. That's all you know about that one.

480
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 2: So the best team of the division, by far the

481
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 2: better team, lost anyway in a game that got the

482
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 2: opposing head coach fired. Atlanta fired their head coach already

483
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 2: today and also crowned division winner for a totally undeserving

484
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 2: eight to nine team that completely laid an egg the

485
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 2: day before. That is the NFC set for you. Yeah, honestly,

486
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:05,160
Speaker 2: you know, we got these three island games. We haven't

487
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 2: gotten too much of the Sunday slate. We got three

488
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,880
Speaker 2: island games. And the way Pittsburgh Baltimore felt for three

489
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 2: quarters tonight before all the craziness, that's just what the

490
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 2: whole game was yesterday. It was just like I barely

491
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 2: even have any notes on Tampa Carolina. It was just

492
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 2: kind of a boring game between two teams that I

493
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:22,159
Speaker 2: don't really want to watch game more, but we have

494
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 2: to put one of them into the playoffs. Panthers lost

495
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 2: both games of the Saints this year, losing record minus

496
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:33,120
Speaker 2: sixty nine differential, last win by more than three points October,

497
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 2: last win by more than seven September, last win as

498
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 2: a favorite September twenty twenty one. Guess what, not gonna

499
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 2: worry about that stat anymore because they are not going

500
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 2: to be favored again this season. But I did not

501
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:50,159
Speaker 2: as well. Four teams previously had made the playoffs with

502
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:53,400
Speaker 2: the losing record. Congrats to Carolina, you're the first one

503
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 2: to repeat. Carolina was one of those in twenty fourteen.

504
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,679
Speaker 2: They did win a game. Of those four teams, we

505
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:03,400
Speaker 2: got Lia winning once, and the Beast Quake. Seahawks won

506
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 2: a game once as well, So those teams are two

507
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 2: and two straight up in the wild card. I'm assuming

508
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 2: all his underdog kind of similar to the stat that

509
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 2: you gave out Carolina. We know they want to run

510
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,119
Speaker 2: the ball. Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dawdle twelve rushes for

511
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 2: twenty yards. That's what they did in this game, and

512
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 2: now they're a playoff team. Bryce Young not terrible, but

513
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:26,879
Speaker 2: I don't know, Like I guess you have to do

514
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 2: the Bryce Young thing again. You just won the division

515
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 2: and made the playoffs, and I feel like this just

516
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 2: could kind of end up being a worst case scenario.

517
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,719
Speaker 2: Maybe Carolina somehow does the thing, and all the trends

518
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,880
Speaker 2: make Carolina look pretty happy as an underdog. I think

519
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:41,880
Speaker 2: there's a very real chance we'll get like forty one

520
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 2: to ten and Carolina just gets steamrolled and again we'll

521
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 2: get to the hot red. But that's certainly the direction

522
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 2: I'm leaning at this point.

523
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I got nothing else to say here. I mean,

524
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 4: I think Tyler Shuck just deserves five seconds of I mean,

525
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,199
Speaker 4: he finished seven and two against the spread, while New

526
00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 4: Orleans went two and six ats without him. He obviously

527
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 4: made them a much better team down the stretch, So

528
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 4: going into next year, I do think he's a formidable

529
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 4: option for them, especially doing this today against Atlanta without

530
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:12,680
Speaker 4: a lave so a bunch of things there, But yeah,

531
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 4: get these get this whole division out of my face,

532
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 4: and hopefully Carolina doesn't do much to advance them. All right,

533
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 4: let's keep rolling here. So the Charger we're gonna do

534
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,159
Speaker 4: the one seed right now, which is basically Chargers Denver

535
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 4: Miami New England. So Denver wins the game nineteen to three,

536
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,439
Speaker 4: they cover the minus fifteen and a half on closed

537
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 4: that line got up to fifteen and a half before

538
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 4: kickoff today, total under thirty seven and a half. And

539
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 4: then New England wins thirty eight to ten, cover minus

540
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 4: fourteen and a half at home, total over forty four

541
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 4: and a half. I just I feel like the majority

542
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 4: of my time spent here would be on Denver if

543
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 4: they were playing this week, but they're not. But I

544
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 4: still cannot understand anything about Denver, like they weren't covering

545
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 4: the entire time they were basically shouldn't have covered the

546
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 4: game in general. If any other quarterback who is competent

547
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 4: is in this game, They're now three to nine against

548
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 4: the spread as a favorite this year. Their defense is good,

549
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,160
Speaker 4: but again, they just allowed thirty four and twenty six

550
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:13,959
Speaker 4: to Jacksonville in Green Bay. So show me an actual

551
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 4: offense and then we can make an opinion of it.

552
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 4: But obviously, statistically I do have to say their defense

553
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 4: is good. But listen, they close as twenty nine point

554
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 4: favorites in their last two games and they scored thirty

555
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 4: nine total points. So I think we just need to

556
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 4: see who their opponent is and we can kind of

557
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 4: go from there. From the Chargers standpoint, they just needed rest,

558
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 4: Like this is why they did this. Herbert needed a week.

559
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 4: Like if they could have had a buy and they

560
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,399
Speaker 4: would have been in this situation, it would have been great. Well,

561
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 4: they created their own buy, so I feel like this

562
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 4: was the best thing possible for them before they face

563
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 4: New England. Right now, they are a three and a

564
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 4: half point underdog in New England next Sunday night, which

565
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 4: should be a fascinating, amazing game. Those two teams have

566
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 4: a lot of history. So what do you take away

567
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:56,639
Speaker 4: from the least that game?

568
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, Chargers Broncos chicked in with thirteen minutes left in

569
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 2: the game. Both teams were under two hundred yards. The

570
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 2: only touchdowns scoring the game was a tipped pick six

571
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 2: that my guy Trey Lance. Through Trey not a great

572
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 2: game where we're not doing well with NDSU former quarterbacks

573
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 2: trying a week eighteen backups against the Broncos scenario that

574
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 2: was Carson was last year thirty eight nothing. I think

575
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 2: that one. So at least Trey Lance got three points

576
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 2: this year, so he's one up on Carson bow. Next,

577
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:30,360
Speaker 2: here's the numbers for the game. Negative EVPA one point

578
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:35,200
Speaker 2: one average depth of target. Come on, get our real quarterback?

579
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 2: What are you doing? Minus thirteen complettion number expected despite

580
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 2: the fact that he's throwing it as far as I

581
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 2: can reach for the entire game and he's still not

582
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 2: completing the passes Like that screams to me, we're just

583
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 2: not gonna play football. You can't beat us. And I

584
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 2: guess that did the job in this game. But we

585
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 2: finished with Denver quote winning the success rate battle thirty

586
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 2: five to twenty eight percent. Those are shameful, disgusting success

587
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 2: rate numbers. And look, Denver's defense honestly has not had

588
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 2: great metrics for like half of the season now, Denver

589
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 2: gets kind of put into the Seattle Houston tier of defenses.

590
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 2: And I know it's hard to say when they just

591
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 2: held a team to three points and like three yards

592
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 2: of play, that's not a great defense, but it's the

593
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 2: backups and no offensive line. Denver's defense is not really

594
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 2: holding up to what they're supposed to be. They're not

595
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 2: in that uprightl on tier. They're not even top ten

596
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 2: in a lot of the metrics. In the second half

597
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 2: of the season, Denver has stayed as good as they've

598
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 2: been in the records, with obviously the one score wins,

599
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 2: but also because the offense has leveled up and made

600
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 2: it a more balanced team. They're more like a top

601
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 2: ten offense and a top ten defense now, but not

602
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 2: a top three defense anymore if they ever were. This

603
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 2: was not a top ten offense. This was the real

604
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 2: offense doing absolutely nothing against the Chargers team that wasn't

605
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 2: really trying that much in the game. We've talked about

606
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 2: this on other Broncos games. We gave Nicks credit on

607
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 2: a really good game. What are you doing with the

608
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 2: training wheels in like a freebee win to try to

609
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 2: get some confidence at home going in to the playoffs.

610
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 2: I just how we're gonna bet on a team that's

611
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 2: the one seed with a one point one a dot

612
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 2: quarterback going into the game that like can't even get

613
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 2: the training wheels off to throw real passes. I know,

614
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 2: like the people have asked, I saw on Twitter, this

615
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 2: is the least at least inspiring one seed since dot

616
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,479
Speaker 2: dot dot question mark. Well, the answer is the Titans

617
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 2: from a few years ago. Like we the Mike Rabel

618
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 2: Titans team that we knew was pretty fraudy and then

619
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 2: it kind of looked the part in the playoffs. That's

620
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 2: the answer to that. The AFC is lots more open

621
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 2: this time around. But I still don't know that we

622
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 2: should feel that good about Denver, And like, to me,

623
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 2: the only reason you feel good about Denver right now

624
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 2: is because they're the one seed, which matters you get

625
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 2: the bye week. But if you just like randomly shuffled

626
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 2: up the playoffs and give us matchup, would we really

627
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 2: feel better about Denver against like the Chargers against the

628
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 2: Patriots against the Jags of the Texans, if you just

629
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 2: put those two teams on a neutral I'm not really

630
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 2: sure Denver is favored by much, if at all, in

631
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 2: a lot of those matchups. They're the one seed. It counts,

632
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 2: but not a lot of inspiration here. Kind of much

633
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 2: like the whole season, kind of the classic way for

634
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 2: Denver to clinch the one seed. This is who they are.

635
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, And my feeling is whoever wins in the wildcard

636
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 4: round and goes to face Denver, we're gonna see that

637
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 4: team play well. So I think a lot of the

638
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 4: people who are going to be looking to bet on

639
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 4: those games, and I assume the spread will be reasonable

640
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 4: because I just don't see how you can make Denver

641
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 4: a larger favorite. You're gonna have people saying momentum and

642
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 4: all these different types of things for whoever that opponent is.

643
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 4: So it'll be fascinating whatever Denver opens at at home

644
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 4: in that first playoff game. But I think the more

645
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 4: interesting thing, at least because it's right here, is the

646
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 4: Chargers in New England. So we're talking about both of them.

647
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 4: But New England did everything they needed to do, typical

648
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,000
Speaker 4: Drake May Game fourteen of eighteen one to ninety one,

649
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 4: a touchdown and then see you later. Nothing else you

650
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 4: needed to be doing in this game. And because I

651
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 4: guess he didn't play more and we saw Stafford in

652
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 4: the later window basically loses the MVP favorite market, as

653
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 4: Stafford is now the favorite to an MVP, a complete

654
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 4: flip after what we watched him demolish Arizona's to whole

655
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 4: conversation for another day, but either way, fascinating nonetheless based

656
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 4: off the fact that New England finally goes up against

657
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 4: what I want to call is a reasonably favorable opponent

658
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 4: here in terms of someone who is a difficult play

659
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 4: versus not Quinn yours. So I do think chargers off

660
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 4: some rest offer them some competition in this game. But again,

661
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 4: New England's lost three games this year, all of them

662
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 4: at home. They're undefeated on the road. So with that

663
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 4: being said, New England had an unbelievably impressive season where

664
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 4: I mean, I'll just give you this. They were fourteen

665
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 4: and three twelve and five against the spread. They entered

666
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 4: the year as the first team since sur Vision realignment

667
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 4: in two thousand and two to see their win total

668
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 4: jump four plus games year to year from both their

669
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 4: previous win total and their previous games won. Like expectations

670
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 4: were ridiculously through the roof. And they're the ones, and

671
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 4: I'm sorry they're the two seed. Frable's probably gonna win

672
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 4: Coach of the Year, like it was an unbelievable job.

673
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 4: But the playoffs are a different story. So it'll be

674
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 4: fascinating how they go up against Harbaugh next week.

675
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, neither one of these teams has been super, super attested,

676
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 2: and you can only play who's in front of you.

677
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 2: But you're gonna hear a lot of talk, as you

678
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 2: have already, about just the terrible schedule that Patriots faced

679
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 2: all year. Yeah, the only team they played all year

680
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 2: that was a lock for the playoffs coming into this

681
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 2: weekend was the two Bills games. They played Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

682
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 2: They played Carolina and Tampa. Those are all the teams

683
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 2: that were fighting in these garbage games. Again, in the playoffs,

684
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,680
Speaker 2: Buffalo is it and Buffalo has not been usual Buffalo

685
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 2: either and they split those games. So we just don't

686
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 2: really know a lot who the Patriots are. But I'm

687
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 2: not sure we're gonna have the answer after a Chargers

688
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 2: playoff game either, because Chargers are three and two against

689
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 2: playoff teams. But I believe all five of those games

690
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 2: forty three points are below. Herbert has not played well

691
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,760
Speaker 2: in these games against the playoffs. On the whole, Chargers

692
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 2: have been really bad offensively in those games against top teams,

693
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 2: but really good defensively. And now you have Drake May

694
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 2: making a playoff debut. So to me, I would lean

695
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 2: kind of under in that game. A trend You're gonna

696
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 2: hear a lot from me, and probably in your column

697
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 2: to Evan wildcard round outdoor unders in non division games

698
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 2: with a total forty one or above thirty five and

699
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 2: nine to the under thirty five and nine eighty percent

700
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 2: to the under. This to me feels like Jesse Minter

701
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:51,720
Speaker 2: Chargers defense says, you know what, we can't block anyone.

702
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 2: We just want to try to get this game down

703
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 2: to the end and give Herbert a shot. Herbert can

704
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 2: beat Drake May. Herbert has played just about I was

705
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 2: going to football as Drake May has this season. And

706
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,120
Speaker 2: if you give them a shot down a score late,

707
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 2: I think the Chargers would take that. You said you're

708
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 2: down for Gi get the ball three minutes left. I

709
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 2: think Elia would take that right now and get a

710
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 2: shot to win. So to me, at plus three and

711
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,919
Speaker 2: a half, I would lean Chargers just because I lean

712
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,240
Speaker 2: under in the game. Maybe kind of a combo play.

713
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 2: But it's interesting that this is the Sunday night game.

714
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 2: I would have thought that's kind of a marquee game.

715
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:27,359
Speaker 2: This doesn't feel marquee to me. It feels more toss upy,

716
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 2: and it's the sort of game that I could see

717
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 2: the Chargers stealing winning this game, and it sort of

718
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 2: flips the whole playoff picture because if they did win

719
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:40,400
Speaker 2: the game, we get Broncos Chargers again. Suddenly the Chargers,

720
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 2: the seventh seed goes to the one seed, and that

721
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 2: probably totally changes the other matchup whatever comes out of

722
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 2: Jacksonville Buffalo. And obviously we won't have seen Houston's game

723
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 2: yet against Pittsburgh that's Monday night, but that two seven,

724
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,839
Speaker 2: we've seen some of those seven seeds hang around, and

725
00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 2: that could totally flip the playoff picture if it ends

726
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,760
Speaker 2: up going that way. So I don't have a great

727
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 2: feel for these two teams. I don't know that we

728
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 2: learned a lot today about either one of them, and

729
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:09,480
Speaker 2: I'm not really positive I'm gonna have a better feel

730
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 2: coming out of the game next Sunday Night, but at

731
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,319
Speaker 2: least we'll have seen them play each other and have

732
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 2: to kind of go from there.

733
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, and let's update some line moves as we go

734
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 4: through this. So it looks like at the moment Pittsburgh's

735
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 4: lost the hook. Houston at minus three now, so some

736
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 4: people gobbled up Pittsburgh plus three and a half. I'm

737
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 4: sure that's going to move as well. All Right, you

738
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:32,560
Speaker 4: ready for the NFC North. Let's keep rolling here. So

739
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:34,840
Speaker 4: we'll do both of these games, even though one of

740
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 4: them not as interesting as the other. Detroit beats the

741
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:40,399
Speaker 4: Bears nineteen sixteen is three and a half point road

742
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 4: Dogs total under fifty one and a half, and the

743
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 4: Vikings end up beating the Packers with Clayton Tune at

744
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:50,280
Speaker 4: quarterback sixteen to three. It's a push on close, close

745
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:53,359
Speaker 4: at thirteen. With that late Green Bay field goal, they

746
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 4: did push total under thirty seven and a half. Just

747
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 4: an absolute dud from Chicago in the first half would

748
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:03,799
Speaker 4: be my notes. They always do come back, but just

749
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:05,879
Speaker 4: not something you really want to see, and they were

750
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 4: honestly a play or two away at the end of

751
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 4: this game from stealing this one. But to me, it's

752
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 4: just kind of the same thing we see week to

753
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 4: week with Chicago. Some slow starts, some really bad offense,

754
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:19,720
Speaker 4: some okay defense, and then all of a sudden, Caleb

755
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:23,800
Speaker 4: starts rolling the magic out. I will say, Campbell and

756
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 4: the Allions did show up like we thought they would.

757
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 4: They're now five and oh straight up and against the

758
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 4: spread in Week eighteen. Campbell does good at the end

759
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 4: of the season. He's a great motivator. But did you

760
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 4: learn anything from Chicago in this game?

761
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 2: Honestly, no, I don't know that we learn much in

762
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 2: either of these games. We learn that every NFC North

763
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 2: team finished above every NFC South team in the NFL

764
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 2: standings for the season, which feels about right. Caleb Williams

765
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:54,239
Speaker 2: does set the Chicago franchise record for passing yards, does

766
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 2: not hit four thousand, so we still get to do

767
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 2: the four thousand thing one more time. Still, the Bears

768
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,240
Speaker 2: are the only team to never have a four thousand

769
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 2: yard passer, so we'll see about that next year. I

770
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 2: guess Colston Lovelin was very good in this game, ten

771
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 2: for ninety one in a score. There was a lot

772
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:12,280
Speaker 2: of talk early in the season so Lovelin got drafted

773
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,319
Speaker 2: over Tyler Warren and that was a surprise. Warren was

774
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,240
Speaker 2: the consensus top tight end and it was awesome early

775
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 2: and so the Bears got a lot of crap for it.

776
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 2: Loveland's been really good down the stretch, and I think

777
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 2: this was probably his best game, and he's become a

778
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 2: real weapon for them. Luther Burden, the rookie they took

779
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:29,839
Speaker 2: at receiver, He's been really good, though he didn't play

780
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 2: in this game, I believe so. Yeah, Chicago's draft picks

781
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 2: are coming around. Their line is coming together. I don't

782
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 2: make too much of this game here. I don't think

783
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 2: that they really felt the pressure to go for it.

784
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 2: Jamier Gibbs looked good again for the Lions. To me

785
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 2: getting ahead of it here, I think he's the one

786
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 2: oh one pick in fantasy this fall, So get out

787
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 2: here with Bijan anyone else. I think it's Gibbs all

788
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:54,719
Speaker 2: the way. One note on the other game, just because

789
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 2: I had to talk as a Vikings fan. Two things.

790
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 2: I guess Clayton Tune thirty four pass for the entire game.

791
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:04,439
Speaker 2: What in the world are we doing having Clayton Tune

792
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 2: play an NFL game and Green Bay Packers you're losing

793
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 2: sixty to nothing. Who cares you're starting Clayton Tune. Nobody

794
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 2: watched this game. The Packers at sixty five yards until

795
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 2: their final drive. That is just a nothing burger game.

796
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 2: And then they get down inside the red zone, they

797
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,759
Speaker 2: run the ball, they get to the line, and that's

798
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 2: like all right. The announcers are like, are they gonna

799
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:32,320
Speaker 2: call a timeout? Truly? Not right? I guess the clock

800
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:35,680
Speaker 2: is running out. That's no, Nope, they call a timeout

801
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 2: to kick a field goal to erase the shutout off

802
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:42,320
Speaker 2: the board. Are you kidding me? You're the Green Bay Packers,

803
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:45,919
Speaker 2: you are a playoff team. You're playing a playoff game

804
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 2: next weekend. You're that afraid of getting a shutout with

805
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 2: your third string, full string quarterback. That is loser franchise behavior.

806
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,239
Speaker 2: Whatever team you are, that is not something the Green

807
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 2: Bay Packers and Matt Lafleur should be doing. I thought

808
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 2: that was embarrassed.

809
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'll say a few things here. From Chicago's standpoint,

810
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 4: they probably hope to get realm Adunze back. That would

811
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 4: be a nice addition to their offense if they've been

812
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 4: missing the last few weeks. It is nice for Chicago

813
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 4: to get the two seed. Seven and the last ten

814
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 4: Superowl winners have been top two seeds. Means maybe less

815
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:20,720
Speaker 4: this year, but still, nonetheless, it is a better path,

816
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:24,000
Speaker 4: so in that front, a good thing for Chicago. Going

817
00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 4: back to green Bay for a second, though, I think

818
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 4: the free fall is an important thing, Like I'm gonna

819
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:30,360
Speaker 4: have this in my column. I'm gonna look more into it.

820
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 4: But they've lost four straight now entering the playoffs. They've

821
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 4: also lost their last two games by double digits. So

822
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 4: both of those things. Entering a playoff game not the

823
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 4: most enticing thing in the world. And then when you

824
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:43,279
Speaker 4: look at the line, when you look at the line

825
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 4: right now, it's flip flopping back and forth. I just

826
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,279
Speaker 4: saw green Bay minus one and a half just moved

827
00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 4: to Chicago minus one. So I think you're just gonna

828
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:52,360
Speaker 4: see a lot of action in this one. It's a

829
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:54,759
Speaker 4: bit of an opinion game based off of what we've seen.

830
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 4: I think a lot of people are gonna come in Chicago.

831
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 4: I think they'll close is the favorite. That's my opinion

832
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 4: on the game. But nonetheless, I mean green Bay lost

833
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 4: ten games against the spread this year, their first time

834
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:08,400
Speaker 4: doing that since nineteen ninety seven. Like they were overvalued

835
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 4: in the market, and I think you're going to get

836
00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 4: a bit of a correction, and I think you're going

837
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 4: to get them as a dog.

838
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard. Like look just taking everything you just said.

839
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 2: Four straight losses, two straight by double digits, and I

840
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 2: know knowih Jordan love in those games, and I know

841
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:25,080
Speaker 2: he's going to be back. But how do you take

842
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 2: those numbers? How do you take an entire month of

843
00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 2: losing and then make them a road favorite in a

844
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,399
Speaker 2: play game against a good Bears team. The Bears are good.

845
00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:36,359
Speaker 2: The Bears are not a ploky Bears team. This is

846
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 2: not like the team that makes all this crazy defensive

847
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:41,399
Speaker 2: plays and wins close games late. This is a good

848
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 2: team with a great offense. I think the Bears are

849
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 2: better on offense and defense than the Packers right now,

850
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 2: that's a spoiler alert from either hot reed when you

851
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 2: get to it. I think there's no way that Bears

852
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 2: should be underdogs, and I think they won't be underdogs

853
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:55,399
Speaker 2: when it gets to kick off.

854
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 4: All right, it's time for the Juggernaut Division the AFC. South.

855
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:03,440
Speaker 4: Of course, Houston wins thirty eight to thirty, beating the Colts.

856
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:05,840
Speaker 4: Indy covers the nine and a half on the close

857
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 4: total over thirty seven and a half, and then Jacksonville

858
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 4: talk about Juggernaut, winning forty one to seven, covering minus

859
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 4: twelve and a half at home, total over forty six

860
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 4: and a half on close. So the Texans enter the

861
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 4: playoffs on a nine game winning streak. They've allowed only

862
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:25,080
Speaker 4: they allowed thirty points today for the first time since

863
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 4: Week seventeen versus Baltimore last season, and that was against

864
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 4: Riley Leonard, So maybe a fluke in that sense, but

865
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 4: either way, their defense as always very stellar. And then

866
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 4: on Jacksonville side, thirteen and four to their team total

867
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:41,920
Speaker 4: over this year, best mark in the NFL, and they

868
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:44,919
Speaker 4: finished twelve and five against the spread, best ats mark

869
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:48,399
Speaker 4: in franchise history. And then on Jacksonville side, they've won

870
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:51,240
Speaker 4: eight straight straight up and against the spread. They've scored

871
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:54,720
Speaker 4: twenty three plus in ten straight games entering the playoffs,

872
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 4: and their defense allowed twenty or less in six straight.

873
00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 4: Right now, Jacksonville over anything looks like absolute juggernaut. Now

874
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 4: let me just give you the current lines as they sit.

875
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 4: So right now, Houston sitting minus three in Pittsburgh and

876
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 4: from Jacksonville's standpoint, they are now plus one and a

877
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 4: half at home against Buffalo. So what do you make

878
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:16,720
Speaker 4: of the AFC South and some of this picture stuff.

879
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:19,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, not a ton on either one of these games.

880
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 2: I thought it was very weird that Houston seems so nonchalant,

881
00:43:22,600 --> 00:43:25,840
Speaker 2: like I understand Jacksonville's way up, so the division has gone.

882
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:28,360
Speaker 2: If I'm Houston, I still want to get into the

883
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:30,879
Speaker 2: four or five game. They get to play the Steelers now,

884
00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 2: where Houston is a more than if you'll go a

885
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:36,800
Speaker 2: favorite depending on the line. That's a huge swing versus

886
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 2: following one spot, they would have ended up playing Jacksonville instead,

887
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 2: which I think is a much much harder matchup. These

888
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,800
Speaker 2: are two teams, Houston and Jacksonville, that have been among

889
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 2: the hottest teams in the league. I think Houston is

890
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:50,320
Speaker 2: on a nine game win streak, Jacksonville eight game win streak.

891
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 2: So these are the hottest teams. And I'll say this

892
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 2: beyond these two games, and I guess another note on

893
00:43:56,520 --> 00:44:00,799
Speaker 2: Jacksonville's game. Brandon Allen, My goodness, how awful can you

894
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 2: be as a backup quarterback? So cam Ward rushing touchdowns

895
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:05,799
Speaker 2: seven to nothing for the Titans, but he hurts his

896
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 2: shoulder and that's it for him. Brandon Allen comes in

897
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:12,239
Speaker 2: on thirty two passing plays minus zero point seven to

898
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:14,760
Speaker 2: eight EPA per play. I didn't even know the EPA

899
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:17,839
Speaker 2: could go that low. This is like Will Levis never

900
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,279
Speaker 2: left the team. Like Titans fans now, maybe you can

901
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 2: see how good Kim Ward has been this year when

902
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 2: you see what it looks like when it's not Kim

903
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:28,360
Speaker 2: Ward out there. So I think Tennessee can feel okay

904
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:32,239
Speaker 2: going to the future. Jacksonville dominated Davis Mills save the Texans.

905
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 2: I've been hyping Houston for a couple months now, as

906
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:38,760
Speaker 2: this is the team. We love, the defense, we love Demko.

907
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:41,839
Speaker 2: I'm starting to wonder if I've been on the wrong

908
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 2: AFC South team. I'm not off of Houston, but Jacksonville.

909
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:47,960
Speaker 2: Not because of what we saw today, but just in general.

910
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:50,719
Speaker 2: Is I've dug in looked at the numbers for the playoffs.

911
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,359
Speaker 2: This team has really turned the corner in the last

912
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:56,239
Speaker 2: couple of months. They kind of feel like shades of

913
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:58,439
Speaker 2: the Bengals team from a few years ago that really

914
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 2: put things together and got hot at their right time,

915
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:04,759
Speaker 2: made a run in this open AFC. That could be Jacksonville.

916
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:08,240
Speaker 2: Their defense has been so good lately down the stretch.

917
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 2: Anthony Campinelli has done an awesome job getting the best

918
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 2: out of them, pass rush getting young guys in the

919
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:17,399
Speaker 2: secondary have played better. They got a great pick six

920
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 2: again today from their safety. And then the offense, Trevor

921
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 2: Lawrence is having his best stretch he's ever had in

922
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:25,800
Speaker 2: the pros. They can't run the ball. So that's interesting

923
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:28,959
Speaker 2: because here you have Jacksonville against Buffalo. Buffalo can't stop

924
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 2: the run. Jacksonville can't run the ball. So it's a

925
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 2: very fascinating matchup Jacksonville Buffalo because Buffalo only wants to run,

926
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:38,720
Speaker 2: but Jacksonville has been amazing against the run this season.

927
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 2: So to me, I know I saw in the comments

928
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 2: here Tim tim is on the over on Bills Jacksonville,

929
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:46,880
Speaker 2: I would be on the under. And that one that

930
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 2: again fits that trend of unders in the wildcard round

931
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:53,319
Speaker 2: non division games. I think both teams could strug. They

932
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,520
Speaker 2: want to run but can't run, so I think that

933
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 2: that could kind of push the game under. And that one,

934
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:00,720
Speaker 2: I know Josh and Trevor could end up just throwing

935
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 2: at bananas in the game instead. But Jacksonville Buffalo, to me,

936
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 2: I think it's the game I'm most interested in next weekend.

937
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:12,040
Speaker 2: That's the game that maybe could have potentially the two

938
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 2: best teams in the AFC because you get the juggernaut

939
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,080
Speaker 2: quarterback in Josh and you get the hot, hot hot

940
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 2: team in Jacksonville. And to me, I talked about New

941
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:23,359
Speaker 2: England Chargers as the game that could kind of swing

942
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 2: the schedule. Well, I think the schedule swings around who

943
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 2: comes out of Buffalo Jacksonville and maybe becomes for me,

944
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 2: my favorite to come out of the AFC. Out of

945
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:34,839
Speaker 2: that game, I think I would have to end up

946
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 2: making decision on AFC futures based on who I think

947
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:42,240
Speaker 2: comes out of Buffalo Jacksonville, and for me, I would

948
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 2: make Jacksonville still the favorite in that game. So I

949
00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 2: certainly lean the Jags right now, but it's tough. It's

950
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:50,319
Speaker 2: tough to bet against Josh Allen the playoff game. These

951
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 2: teams both look really good right now, and it would

952
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 2: be really fun to see a Houston Jacksonville AFC championship game.

953
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:58,080
Speaker 2: We might get it, Yeah.

954
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:00,960
Speaker 4: That would be awesome. You did mention the under so

955
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:04,239
Speaker 4: fifty one and a half for Buffalo and Jacksonville, which

956
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 4: is currently five points higher than any other over under

957
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 4: this weekend, so there is a little perspective on where

958
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:12,719
Speaker 4: they predict that game to go, so I agree. I

959
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:16,160
Speaker 4: would probably first look under there. It just feels super

960
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:18,800
Speaker 4: super high for a playoff game that I would assume

961
00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 4: would have a little bit of tightness with the way

962
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:24,960
Speaker 4: Buffalo likes to run the ball, and I don't expect

963
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't expect Trevor Lawrence and them to

964
00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:29,920
Speaker 4: just air it out. I think it's a little bit

965
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 4: more conservative in the way they handle that game. But

966
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 4: we will see, all right, We're just gonna do some

967
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 4: scores here. So Buffalo wins thirty five to eight over

968
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:41,359
Speaker 4: the Jets, cover minus thirteen and a half at home

969
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 4: total over thirty nine and a half. Really only take

970
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:46,680
Speaker 4: away as the absurdity of the Jets no interceptions on

971
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 4: defense this year four total takeaways in every game, three

972
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:53,120
Speaker 4: less than any other team in NFL history. Just an

973
00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 4: absolute abysmal end to the season from Buffalo standpoint, good

974
00:47:57,200 --> 00:48:00,600
Speaker 4: way to finish High Mark Stadium, last game there. Potentially,

975
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 4: depending on what the playoff picture looks like, no kicker

976
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 4: situation in Buffalo is definitely going to be able to

977
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:08,239
Speaker 4: be a problem. That's something that got to figure out

978
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:10,840
Speaker 4: before next weekend. They were going for two point conversions

979
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 4: left and right, and with Derrick Henry Tonight not getting there,

980
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:17,360
Speaker 4: looks like James Cook will win the rushing title. He

981
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 4: was eighty to one in the preseason. So that's it.

982
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:23,080
Speaker 4: Led a nice hit there, all right. Washington beats the

983
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 4: Eagles twenty four to seventeen. Is three point road dogs,

984
00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 4: unclosed that opened like seven and a half eight, but

985
00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 4: obviously no hurts. They sat all the starters total over

986
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 4: thirty eight and a half. Philly treated this as a

987
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 4: preseason game, and Washington has treated every game down the

988
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:39,839
Speaker 4: stretch is like a fight. They went four and two

989
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:42,840
Speaker 4: ats in the last six. They looked good there. The

990
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:46,880
Speaker 4: Eagles just continue to show that their offense is just

991
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:49,759
Speaker 4: not in sync, even with Tanner McKee. Today six and

992
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:51,759
Speaker 4: eleven to their team total over this year time for

993
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 4: the worst mark in the NFC with the Bucks, so

994
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 4: that is something that will have to change, all right,

995
00:48:56,719 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 4: keep rowling here. Cleveland beats the Bengals to eighteen as

996
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:04,480
Speaker 4: a nine point road underdog total under forty seven and

997
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 4: a half. Miles gets his sack record, of course, in

998
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:10,399
Speaker 4: the eighteenth game, and there is some great stats out

999
00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 4: there about how many snaps on defense. It took him

1000
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 4: to get to that mark about eighty ninety even one

1001
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:20,520
Speaker 4: hundred less than straighthan and Watt did so very very impressive.

1002
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 4: From Miles's standpoint, Burrow five and eight straight up versus

1003
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:28,959
Speaker 4: THEAFC North in the last three seasons, just yuck, yuck,

1004
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:33,319
Speaker 4: yuck Cowboys Giants. Giants win the game thirty four to

1005
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 4: seventeen as three point home underdogs on clothes. Total goes

1006
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 4: over fifty and a half, which it almost always does

1007
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 4: with Dallas games Cowboys in the season, sixteen and one

1008
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 4: to the over in the first half, just absolutely insane.

1009
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:49,880
Speaker 4: Dallas was thirteen and forty, the over best mark in

1010
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 4: the NFL. And then from the Giants standpoint, this one

1011
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:54,759
Speaker 4: is the one that just if I'm a Giants fan

1012
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:57,240
Speaker 4: at heart, and this last three seasons, they are nine

1013
00:49:57,239 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 4: and thirty six in the first sixteen weeks of this

1014
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:03,640
Speaker 4: season and now four and two in week seventeen and eighteen,

1015
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:06,080
Speaker 4: doing exactly what they had to do to move back

1016
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:09,080
Speaker 4: to the fifth pick. And finally, and I know this

1017
00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:11,400
Speaker 4: is the game Brandon wishes was first in our rundown.

1018
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:15,120
Speaker 4: But Vegas beats the Chiefs fourteen to twelve cover plus

1019
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:18,040
Speaker 4: three and a half on close at home total under

1020
00:50:18,080 --> 00:50:20,880
Speaker 4: thirty five and a half. Both teams did their jobs,

1021
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:25,280
Speaker 4: no touchdowns, four different quarterbacks played. The teams went seven

1022
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:29,240
Speaker 4: of thirty three on third down from Kansas City standpoint.

1023
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 4: Though this is their ninth loss as a favorite this year,

1024
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:35,560
Speaker 4: we haven't seen the team lose nine plus games outright

1025
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:38,319
Speaker 4: as a favor in the regular season since Washington in

1026
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 4: nineteen eighty eight. That is the history that will change

1027
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 4: Case's franchise going into next year. Huge huge turnaround there.

1028
00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:49,160
Speaker 4: All right, no Monday Night football this week, but we

1029
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:51,120
Speaker 4: do have Brandon's hot reed coming up, and if you'd

1030
00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:53,800
Speaker 4: like to tale some of the bets we're about to discuss.

1031
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:56,360
Speaker 4: Find the quicks up link in the podcast and video description,

1032
00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:59,879
Speaker 4: or visit actionework dot com slash bet now. You can

1033
00:50:59,880 --> 00:51:02,399
Speaker 4: also look in the live YouTube chat if you're still

1034
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:04,719
Speaker 4: hanging out with us, or even better, sign up for

1035
00:51:04,760 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 4: Action Pro. Action Pro users get real time alerts as

1036
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:11,640
Speaker 4: soon as experts like Stucky, Brandon Chris Raybond track their

1037
00:51:11,680 --> 00:51:14,640
Speaker 4: picks in the act. You'll also get real time money

1038
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:17,279
Speaker 4: percentages to see where this smart money is flowing, and

1039
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:20,879
Speaker 4: access to our live NFL player prop Projections, Power Buy

1040
00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:23,239
Speaker 4: Sean currenty you get them pregame, you get them during

1041
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:27,080
Speaker 4: the game. Super super awesome. I use them all the time.

1042
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 4: Now just go to actionework dot com slash pro to

1043
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 4: get started and use promo code Pod twenty for twenty

1044
00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:37,440
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1045
00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:41,680
Speaker 4: twenty Pod twenty for twenty dollars off actionnetwork dot Com

1046
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:45,960
Speaker 4: slash Pro. All right, Brandon, Playoff Hot Red time. We've

1047
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:48,600
Speaker 4: been through eighteen weeks. I can't wait to hear this one.

1048
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're starting in on the first game on Saturday,

1049
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 2: Rams Panthers. How could we have imagined that would be

1050
00:51:55,560 --> 00:51:59,000
Speaker 2: what we kick off the playoffs. I'm taking the Rams

1051
00:51:59,040 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 2: minus ten. I understand how historic this number is, but

1052
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 2: give me the ten points at DraftKings and the Rams.

1053
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:09,360
Speaker 2: Obviously this line is aggressive already rising. It was nine

1054
00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:11,640
Speaker 2: on the look ahead that we got at some books.

1055
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 2: This is the best team in football, the Rams, by

1056
00:52:14,160 --> 00:52:17,080
Speaker 2: any measure, I think, and it's also the worst team

1057
00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 2: in the playoffs that the Panthers are. We had some

1058
00:52:20,000 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 2: of the numbers earlier minus six to nine point differential

1059
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 2: bottom ten, the NFL worse for any playoff team. Ever,

1060
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:28,800
Speaker 2: here's some more numbers Carolina this year outside of division

1061
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:32,960
Speaker 2: against playoff teams two and five average score in those

1062
00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:36,480
Speaker 2: games twenty eight to fourteen. The Panthers scored sixteen or

1063
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:39,120
Speaker 2: less all but one of those games. Guess which one

1064
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:41,359
Speaker 2: it was, the win against the Rams. I'll get back

1065
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:43,960
Speaker 2: to that in a second. All five of those losses

1066
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:47,640
Speaker 2: by double digits. They average scoring ten point two points

1067
00:52:47,640 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 2: a game in those games against non division playoff teams losses. Sorry,

1068
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:54,840
Speaker 2: I don't know, I'm saying non division playoff teams. There

1069
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:57,600
Speaker 2: are no division playoff teams as just them, so that

1070
00:52:57,800 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 2: Tampa games don't count anymore. Those five losses by eleven, sixteen, seventeen,

1071
00:53:03,200 --> 00:53:05,759
Speaker 2: twenty nine, and thirty one. Guess what those are all

1072
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:08,920
Speaker 2: higher than ten. And the Rams already have eight wins

1073
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:12,200
Speaker 2: this season by fourteen or more points. We just saw

1074
00:53:12,280 --> 00:53:15,280
Speaker 2: today if you paid attention, they kind of were playing

1075
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:17,759
Speaker 2: with their food against the Cardinals for three quarters and

1076
00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:19,920
Speaker 2: suddenly they won by seventeen. Because that's how good the

1077
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 2: Rams offense is. They can sort of screw around and

1078
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:24,960
Speaker 2: still blow you out. This is the number one offense

1079
00:53:25,040 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 2: in football. They also have the lowest variance offense. That's

1080
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:31,719
Speaker 2: an insane combo to be the best offense, and that

1081
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:34,919
Speaker 2: means you're the best week after week, quarter after quarter.

1082
00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 2: Like I go through and check all the splits as

1083
00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:39,320
Speaker 2: I do prep for playoffs. They're the number one offense

1084
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:41,360
Speaker 2: and like the first quarter, second quarter, third and fourth

1085
00:53:41,400 --> 00:53:43,680
Speaker 2: their number one offense first half of the season, second

1086
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:45,880
Speaker 2: half the season. They're number one on early downs and

1087
00:53:45,960 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 2: late downs. Like they're just the best offense. They've lapped

1088
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:52,959
Speaker 2: the field. They're proven. Also, thirteen of their seventeen games

1089
00:53:52,960 --> 00:53:55,840
Speaker 2: this year came against teams that won eight or more games.

1090
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:58,719
Speaker 2: Stafford has been by far the best EPA per play

1091
00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:02,000
Speaker 2: against playoff teams, So why he should be MVP. And

1092
00:54:02,560 --> 00:54:05,920
Speaker 2: here's an important note. We know how one score games

1093
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:09,200
Speaker 2: can be a little goofy. That's what Carolina won against

1094
00:54:09,200 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 2: the Rams last time. If you flip one score games,

1095
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:14,520
Speaker 2: it can be very revealing. What would happen if all

1096
00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:17,040
Speaker 2: those coin flips went the other way. The Rams will

1097
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:19,960
Speaker 2: still be thirteen and four, they didn't really lose too

1098
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:22,880
Speaker 2: many of those. The Panthers would be four and thirteen,

1099
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:25,800
Speaker 2: worst in the NFL. That shows you just how lucky

1100
00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:28,319
Speaker 2: they are even to get here to the spot. And

1101
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:31,520
Speaker 2: I know Rams defense is a bit vulnerable. This is

1102
00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:34,560
Speaker 2: not the matchup I think to worry about that Carolina

1103
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:37,440
Speaker 2: bottom ten against side receiver one, so Pukash have a

1104
00:54:37,440 --> 00:54:40,920
Speaker 2: big game bottom three DVA against tight ends. We've talked

1105
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:44,160
Speaker 2: all seasons about thirteen personnel, all those Rams tight ends,

1106
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:47,840
Speaker 2: and let's talk about the Carolina Rams game briefly. Here's

1107
00:54:47,840 --> 00:54:49,920
Speaker 2: what had to happen for the Panthers to win that game.

1108
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:53,800
Speaker 2: Too long touchdown for Bryce Young on fourth down, broken

1109
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:57,759
Speaker 2: play type coverages and Stafford tipped interception in the end

1110
00:54:57,840 --> 00:55:01,080
Speaker 2: zone and a pick six right after that dig Bill.

1111
00:55:01,120 --> 00:55:04,919
Speaker 2: All that Rams sixty one to thirty nine percent success rate,

1112
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:07,480
Speaker 2: seventy six percent success rate on the ground, and they'll

1113
00:55:07,520 --> 00:55:09,799
Speaker 2: run all over the Panthers in this game. They only

1114
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:12,720
Speaker 2: even made it to third down five times the entire game.

1115
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 2: They're gonna do anything they want offensively. If anything, we

1116
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:20,000
Speaker 2: have this game, and we shouldn't be afraid of the Rams.

1117
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:23,320
Speaker 2: We should know all the better, how much clearly better

1118
00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:26,320
Speaker 2: they are as a team. We got the stat Evan

1119
00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:28,920
Speaker 2: that you gave out about the sub five hundred teams.

1120
00:55:29,080 --> 00:55:31,760
Speaker 2: I know we have that one. I always lean that direction.

1121
00:55:32,040 --> 00:55:34,839
Speaker 2: Here are some stats that go the other way. Wildcard

1122
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:38,960
Speaker 2: hosts that missed last year's playoffs fourteen and thirty ats

1123
00:55:39,040 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 2: thirty two percent. That would be the Panthers row to

1124
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 2: Wildcard teams on a one game win one game winning streak,

1125
00:55:45,520 --> 00:55:50,279
Speaker 2: that's the Rams sixteen four and one eighty percent cover rate.

1126
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:53,560
Speaker 2: Teams that pretty much either needed to win to get

1127
00:55:53,560 --> 00:55:56,640
Speaker 2: in or probably tried to win to improve their position.

1128
00:55:56,840 --> 00:56:00,319
Speaker 2: That's what the Rams were to me. Rams minus ten

1129
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:03,279
Speaker 2: in a laugher, get ready to ride the escalator. I

1130
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:06,560
Speaker 2: honestly see like a forty one to ten game coming here,

1131
00:56:06,600 --> 00:56:09,080
Speaker 2: and I think Stafford is going to do anything you want.

1132
00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:11,480
Speaker 2: The Rams running backs is anything they want. I don't

1133
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:12,600
Speaker 2: think the one's close at all.

1134
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you didn't even use these two words. And honestly,

1135
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:19,160
Speaker 4: they may not need him, but DeVante Adams might be

1136
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:20,800
Speaker 4: back in this one as well, which would be a

1137
00:56:20,880 --> 00:56:23,480
Speaker 4: nice addition. But again, maybe you just sit him and

1138
00:56:23,520 --> 00:56:25,600
Speaker 4: wait for the next one, or maybe he's out there

1139
00:56:25,600 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 4: as like you know, doesn't need to do much decoy,

1140
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:32,040
Speaker 4: et cetera, et cetera. So Rams minus ten and one

1141
00:56:32,080 --> 00:56:34,120
Speaker 4: more update, because I know your next one is Green

1142
00:56:34,120 --> 00:56:37,040
Speaker 4: Bay Chicago. Green Bay now minus one and a half

1143
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:39,960
Speaker 4: on the road against Chicago, so that line is ping

1144
00:56:40,080 --> 00:56:42,600
Speaker 4: ponging a ton. So what do you like in that game?

1145
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:44,920
Speaker 2: It is back and forth, and I'm just gonna go

1146
00:56:44,920 --> 00:56:46,600
Speaker 2: ahead and take the Bear's money line. I see a

1147
00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:49,279
Speaker 2: minus one oh four right now, and we kind of

1148
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:51,040
Speaker 2: already gave this one out. I just think there's no

1149
00:56:51,080 --> 00:56:53,640
Speaker 2: way the Packers favored in Chicago. I don't think they

1150
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:55,799
Speaker 2: will be by the time we get to kickoff. I

1151
00:56:55,840 --> 00:56:59,160
Speaker 2: think Chicago's the better team on offense and defense right now. Frankly,

1152
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:02,120
Speaker 2: I make Chicago by over field goal at home, so

1153
00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:04,360
Speaker 2: I would have them the better team with home field advantage.

1154
00:57:04,600 --> 00:57:08,040
Speaker 2: That's how the lines go. Packer's rushing offense has faded

1155
00:57:08,080 --> 00:57:11,120
Speaker 2: down the stretch. Their line is injured. The Bears line

1156
00:57:11,160 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 2: is like top three in the NFL right now, and

1157
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:15,160
Speaker 2: the rushing offense has been great. So we're gonna get

1158
00:57:15,200 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 2: this Chicago cold weather, Saturday night atmosphere, running the ball

1159
00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:24,200
Speaker 2: will be premium. That's Bears advantage. Packers defense bottom ten

1160
00:57:24,320 --> 00:57:27,560
Speaker 2: DVA the last six games, fading very hard since the

1161
00:57:27,600 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 2: Micah Parsons injury and all the other guys missing. Bears

1162
00:57:30,840 --> 00:57:33,960
Speaker 2: defense not good either, but last six games kind of

1163
00:57:34,000 --> 00:57:36,000
Speaker 2: like league average. I know it doesn't feel that way

1164
00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:38,160
Speaker 2: because we watched the Niners put up a huge score

1165
00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:40,240
Speaker 2: on that, but the Nenders are really good. They put

1166
00:57:40,280 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 2: up a huge score on most teams. And the Bears

1167
00:57:42,920 --> 00:57:47,480
Speaker 2: actually are getting healthier defensively, so I think actually Green

1168
00:57:47,520 --> 00:57:50,960
Speaker 2: Bays defense injuries going the wrong way, Chicago's moving in

1169
00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 2: the right direction in this matchup. We'll see long term

1170
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:56,480
Speaker 2: with the Bears defense, but in this one, I think

1171
00:57:56,480 --> 00:57:59,440
Speaker 2: they're the better defense, and certainly the healthier one. And

1172
00:57:59,640 --> 00:58:02,920
Speaker 2: import and where this game is at. Packers defense bottom

1173
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:05,880
Speaker 2: ten on the road all season, Chicago's defense on the

1174
00:58:05,960 --> 00:58:10,080
Speaker 2: road thirtieth by DVA at home thirteenth pretty solid, so

1175
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:14,000
Speaker 2: it matters here to get the home road flip. Despite

1176
00:58:14,080 --> 00:58:17,760
Speaker 2: all of that, Bears Packers feels like it's gonna come

1177
00:58:17,840 --> 00:58:20,520
Speaker 2: down to like one late drive which quarterback can go

1178
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:23,800
Speaker 2: make the magic happen. So that shouldn't necessarily get me

1179
00:58:23,840 --> 00:58:26,560
Speaker 2: excited to go better money line I've seen the Bears

1180
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:28,840
Speaker 2: are the better team. I don't think this line is

1181
00:58:28,880 --> 00:58:30,919
Speaker 2: at all what it should be. I don't think they'll

1182
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:32,880
Speaker 2: be home dogs when we get there. So at minus

1183
00:58:32,960 --> 00:58:34,800
Speaker 2: one oh four, I'll just take the money line, and

1184
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:38,080
Speaker 2: I think we get this too. I don't know. I

1185
00:58:38,120 --> 00:58:41,680
Speaker 2: think this closes maybe more like Bears minus two. We're

1186
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:44,160
Speaker 2: not gonna hit the key number on the other side,

1187
00:58:44,440 --> 00:58:46,160
Speaker 2: but I think they'll be a solid favorite by the

1188
00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:47,360
Speaker 2: time we get there. What do you think?

1189
00:58:48,640 --> 00:58:52,040
Speaker 4: I agree Chicago should be the favorite. Green Bay is

1190
00:58:52,080 --> 00:58:56,680
Speaker 4: the bigger name, the more pedigree. Chicago seems like the

1191
00:58:56,720 --> 00:58:59,640
Speaker 4: hotter team, the hotter name. They did just lose to Detroit,

1192
00:58:59,680 --> 00:59:03,560
Speaker 4: but I just think they're there. I'll say this, It'll

1193
00:59:03,560 --> 00:59:05,880
Speaker 4: be interesting to see what the public splits kind of

1194
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:08,040
Speaker 4: look like. Not because I really give a crap. It's

1195
00:59:08,040 --> 00:59:10,320
Speaker 4: more about the fact that I'm interested which way people

1196
00:59:10,320 --> 00:59:12,880
Speaker 4: would be interested in betting, because I do feel like

1197
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:17,240
Speaker 4: Bears Packers. We've already seen this twice since December, so

1198
00:59:17,360 --> 00:59:19,440
Speaker 4: I believe that's the first time we're ever gonna have

1199
00:59:19,960 --> 00:59:23,400
Speaker 4: three meetings this late into the season, so we have

1200
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:26,040
Speaker 4: a lot of data to look at entering this matchup.

1201
00:59:26,120 --> 00:59:28,960
Speaker 4: So I'm just fascinated which way people will be betting it.

1202
00:59:29,040 --> 00:59:31,600
Speaker 4: But to me, I'm kind of with you on Chicago,

1203
00:59:31,640 --> 00:59:34,120
Speaker 4: and I'm a guy that has a bunch of Green

1204
00:59:34,160 --> 00:59:36,680
Speaker 4: Bay Super Bowl tickets, But honestly, I feel like I

1205
00:59:36,720 --> 00:59:38,480
Speaker 4: tore up kind of a quarter of those tickets a

1206
00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:40,400
Speaker 4: little while ago because I don't know how much faith

1207
00:59:40,440 --> 00:59:42,480
Speaker 4: I have with the injuries that they've gone through.

1208
00:59:45,680 --> 00:59:56,040
Speaker 3: Thanks, all right, before we wrap up, let's hear from

1209
00:59:56,040 --> 00:59:58,760
Speaker 3: Patrick Everson from Vegas Insiders and how things looked in

1210
00:59:58,840 --> 00:59:59,440
Speaker 3: Las Vegas.

1211
00:59:59,680 --> 01:00:01,000
Speaker 5: All right, Evan, thanks a lot.

1212
01:00:01,040 --> 01:00:04,560
Speaker 1: Patrick Efferson here for Vegas Insider, and we have wrapped

1213
01:00:04,640 --> 01:00:05,560
Speaker 1: up the regular season.

1214
01:00:05,640 --> 01:00:08,800
Speaker 5: NFL Week eighteen odds are in the book.

1215
01:00:09,560 --> 01:00:14,640
Speaker 1: What a phenomenal finish to the week with that raven

1216
01:00:14,720 --> 01:00:19,240
Speaker 1: Steelers game. And it was interesting most of the sportsbook

1217
01:00:19,240 --> 01:00:21,840
Speaker 1: operators I talked to here in Vegas and across the

1218
01:00:21,840 --> 01:00:25,880
Speaker 1: country actually needed the Steelers in that game, so they

1219
01:00:25,880 --> 01:00:29,520
Speaker 1: were fairly pleased with that result, the Steelers as a

1220
01:00:29,560 --> 01:00:32,560
Speaker 1: short home underdog coming through with the outright victory. In fact,

1221
01:00:32,760 --> 01:00:34,280
Speaker 1: a couple of the oddsmakers I've talked to you said

1222
01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:36,640
Speaker 1: they really did need the Steelers outright, not just to

1223
01:00:37,080 --> 01:00:39,240
Speaker 1: have a Ravens one or two point win in the

1224
01:00:39,240 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 1: Steelers cover. They needed the Steelers outright in that game

1225
01:00:41,520 --> 01:00:44,480
Speaker 1: because they were seeing a lot of Ravens money line play.

1226
01:00:45,240 --> 01:00:48,000
Speaker 1: But there was one odds maker with one national book

1227
01:00:48,000 --> 01:00:51,560
Speaker 1: who said that that actually worked out really well for

1228
01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:53,600
Speaker 1: the bulk of his customers.

1229
01:00:53,640 --> 01:00:54,880
Speaker 5: They actually did really well.

1230
01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:58,480
Speaker 1: They were getting a lot of bets on the Steelers pregame,

1231
01:00:58,960 --> 01:01:00,800
Speaker 1: and a lot of in game play on the Steelers

1232
01:01:00,840 --> 01:01:02,560
Speaker 1: when they were down ten zero and as they were

1233
01:01:02,560 --> 01:01:05,000
Speaker 1: trying to come back and so forth. So kind of

1234
01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:07,600
Speaker 1: an interesting dichotomy there, but I think the bulk of

1235
01:01:07,640 --> 01:01:12,600
Speaker 1: books probably wanted the Steelers in that game, And as

1236
01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:15,080
Speaker 1: far as the rest of the weekend goes, Saturday was

1237
01:01:15,120 --> 01:01:18,680
Speaker 1: a winner for the books, almost unanimously. You had a

1238
01:01:18,880 --> 01:01:22,240
Speaker 1: trendy favorite in the forty nine Ers, I'm excuse me,

1239
01:01:22,280 --> 01:01:25,560
Speaker 1: a trendy underdog in the forty nine Ers at home

1240
01:01:26,360 --> 01:01:29,120
Speaker 1: losing to the Seahawks in a very low scoring game

1241
01:01:29,160 --> 01:01:31,840
Speaker 1: thirteen to three, so the total was never threatened, and

1242
01:01:32,000 --> 01:01:34,840
Speaker 1: all the same game parlays where everybody's stacking up anytime

1243
01:01:34,880 --> 01:01:36,880
Speaker 1: touchdowns and those sort of things, none of that stuff

1244
01:01:36,920 --> 01:01:39,080
Speaker 1: came to fruition because neither team could score.

1245
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:40,320
Speaker 5: Especially the Niners.

1246
01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:43,800
Speaker 1: And then you had in the early kick the Panthers

1247
01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:46,960
Speaker 1: Bucks game, another very low scoring game. The Bucks were

1248
01:01:46,960 --> 01:01:49,600
Speaker 1: the play that the public was mostly on, and the

1249
01:01:49,600 --> 01:01:51,840
Speaker 1: Bucks did not cover. They were three point favorites and

1250
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:55,920
Speaker 1: they only won by two, sixteen to fourteen. So Saturday

1251
01:01:55,960 --> 01:01:58,960
Speaker 1: a good day for the bookmakers, unfortunately for us on

1252
01:01:59,000 --> 01:02:01,480
Speaker 1: this side of the counter. And then Sunday was a

1253
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:03,520
Speaker 1: lot of back and forth kind of as I alluded

1254
01:02:03,560 --> 01:02:05,439
Speaker 1: to with that Steelers game, even though there was even

1255
01:02:05,440 --> 01:02:07,680
Speaker 1: a little bit of a difference of opinion or difference

1256
01:02:07,680 --> 01:02:11,160
Speaker 1: of result between a couple of different sports books on

1257
01:02:11,200 --> 01:02:14,080
Speaker 1: that Raven Steelers game, and really it was just kind

1258
01:02:14,120 --> 01:02:15,960
Speaker 1: of a back and forth exchange of money all day

1259
01:02:16,000 --> 01:02:16,800
Speaker 1: depending on the games.

1260
01:02:16,800 --> 01:02:19,040
Speaker 5: The books won a few, the betters won a few.

1261
01:02:19,480 --> 01:02:21,240
Speaker 1: And if you want to just drop right into what

1262
01:02:21,360 --> 01:02:26,200
Speaker 1: Draft Kings was seeing on this Sunday, their customers, the

1263
01:02:26,440 --> 01:02:29,440
Speaker 1: teams that their customers were betting the most, did really well.

1264
01:02:29,560 --> 01:02:33,120
Speaker 1: So Draftings customers probably had a pretty decent Sunday against

1265
01:02:33,160 --> 01:02:36,480
Speaker 1: the spread. The most bet team by number of tickets,

1266
01:02:37,360 --> 01:02:40,400
Speaker 1: the top three were the Bills, the Cowboys, and the Packers. Obviously,

1267
01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:43,200
Speaker 1: the Cowboys lose outright, so that's not good for the customers.

1268
01:02:43,200 --> 01:02:46,440
Speaker 5: That's when the book won. But the Bills, but the Bills.

1269
01:02:46,160 --> 01:02:52,200
Speaker 1: Win, and then by handle you had by money the Steelers, Jaguars,

1270
01:02:52,200 --> 01:02:55,760
Speaker 1: and Rams. Steelers obviously were the underdog, they win, so

1271
01:02:55,800 --> 01:02:58,720
Speaker 1: obviously they covered. The Jaguars covered as big favorites and

1272
01:02:58,760 --> 01:03:03,280
Speaker 1: the Rams covered as big favorites. And if you're looking

1273
01:03:03,280 --> 01:03:05,760
Speaker 1: at the popular teams on the money line at Draft

1274
01:03:05,840 --> 01:03:10,200
Speaker 1: Kings by betcount Bills, Texans, Jaguars, all three of them

1275
01:03:10,280 --> 01:03:13,080
Speaker 1: win and Texans just barely.

1276
01:03:14,000 --> 01:03:15,120
Speaker 5: It's really crazy stuff.

1277
01:03:15,120 --> 01:03:17,480
Speaker 1: At the end of that game as well, by money,

1278
01:03:17,880 --> 01:03:23,160
Speaker 1: Ravens Jaguars, Bills, So the Ravens obviously don't win, so

1279
01:03:23,400 --> 01:03:25,280
Speaker 1: that's a loser for the betters, but the Jaguars and

1280
01:03:25,280 --> 01:03:27,960
Speaker 1: Bills got there. So for the most part, DraftKings customers

1281
01:03:28,000 --> 01:03:29,600
Speaker 1: had a pretty good day. And like I said, you

1282
01:03:29,640 --> 01:03:32,040
Speaker 1: could tell just from some of the teams I mentioned

1283
01:03:32,040 --> 01:03:34,080
Speaker 1: there and the results that it was kind of a

1284
01:03:34,160 --> 01:03:37,960
Speaker 1: back and forth Sunday. So let's push this forward to

1285
01:03:38,400 --> 01:03:41,400
Speaker 1: the playoffs. All the odds went up Sunday night for

1286
01:03:41,680 --> 01:03:44,520
Speaker 1: all six games, all six wild Card Weekend games or

1287
01:03:44,720 --> 01:03:47,000
Speaker 1: Super wild Card Weekend however you want to term it,

1288
01:03:47,720 --> 01:03:49,360
Speaker 1: and I'm not going to apply you through all six,

1289
01:03:49,400 --> 01:03:51,960
Speaker 1: but a couple of things that stand out early, and

1290
01:03:52,600 --> 01:03:55,120
Speaker 1: that's a caveat. I need to stress it is early.

1291
01:03:55,160 --> 01:03:57,200
Speaker 1: There's not necessarily a whole lot of money in the

1292
01:03:57,240 --> 01:04:00,400
Speaker 1: pot right now. There certainly isn't the overwhelming majority money's

1293
01:04:00,400 --> 01:04:01,840
Speaker 1: going to come in on game day and in the

1294
01:04:01,880 --> 01:04:05,240
Speaker 1: hour leading up to each of these kickoffs. Now that said,

1295
01:04:06,280 --> 01:04:11,560
Speaker 1: early trends, the Bears are getting much much more action

1296
01:04:11,880 --> 01:04:14,200
Speaker 1: on the spread than the Packers are early. And what's

1297
01:04:14,240 --> 01:04:18,240
Speaker 1: interesting about this is DraftKings opened the Bears minus one

1298
01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:21,000
Speaker 1: and a half, I believe, and this has already flipped

1299
01:04:21,440 --> 01:04:25,560
Speaker 1: to Packers minus one and a half, even though seventy

1300
01:04:25,600 --> 01:04:27,800
Speaker 1: four percent of early spread bets, seventy eight percent of

1301
01:04:27,800 --> 01:04:30,760
Speaker 1: early spread money is coming in on Chicago, and that

1302
01:04:30,920 --> 01:04:33,240
Speaker 1: is in one of the Saturday Night that's the Saturday

1303
01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:36,360
Speaker 1: night game, the second of these six wildcard games, and

1304
01:04:36,400 --> 01:04:40,000
Speaker 1: then in the last game, the Texans at the Steelers.

1305
01:04:40,000 --> 01:04:42,720
Speaker 1: The Steelers have the worst record, but get to host

1306
01:04:42,760 --> 01:04:45,360
Speaker 1: a game because they won the NFC North, so they

1307
01:04:45,400 --> 01:04:46,080
Speaker 1: get the four seed.

1308
01:04:46,120 --> 01:04:46,880
Speaker 5: The Texans are.

1309
01:04:46,800 --> 01:04:49,400
Speaker 1: A really really good five seed, and they've won eight

1310
01:04:49,400 --> 01:04:51,720
Speaker 1: in a row and they've covered in seven of those.

1311
01:04:52,440 --> 01:04:56,560
Speaker 5: And I know it appears early betters really like.

1312
01:04:56,600 --> 01:04:59,680
Speaker 1: The Texans with the Steelers having to do, you know,

1313
01:04:59,720 --> 01:05:01,560
Speaker 1: fire an awful lot of bullets to try to get

1314
01:05:01,600 --> 01:05:04,520
Speaker 1: through that Ravens game on Sunday night, just to get

1315
01:05:04,520 --> 01:05:07,680
Speaker 1: to the postseason. Seventy three percent of early spread bets,

1316
01:05:07,840 --> 01:05:11,000
Speaker 1: eighty nine percent of early spread money and again caveat

1317
01:05:11,640 --> 01:05:14,360
Speaker 1: very limited pot, not a whole lot of tickets and money,

1318
01:05:14,400 --> 01:05:18,000
Speaker 1: but the trend is heavily in favor of the Texans

1319
01:05:18,040 --> 01:05:21,520
Speaker 1: on the road in this Wildcard game next weekend.

1320
01:05:21,960 --> 01:05:25,320
Speaker 5: Now for much more on all six of.

1321
01:05:25,280 --> 01:05:28,840
Speaker 1: The Wildcard weekend games throughout the week, this article update

1322
01:05:28,840 --> 01:05:32,640
Speaker 1: throughout the week. It's my Vegas Insider NFL wild Card

1323
01:05:32,760 --> 01:05:36,000
Speaker 1: odds and action report again all six games. We get

1324
01:05:36,080 --> 01:05:38,760
Speaker 1: updates throughout the week on every game right up until

1325
01:05:38,840 --> 01:05:41,320
Speaker 1: kickoff from odds makers across the country and here in

1326
01:05:41,360 --> 01:05:44,840
Speaker 1: Las Vegas, including DraftKings. Let you see kind of how

1327
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:47,200
Speaker 1: the lines have evolved and how the betting has evolved

1328
01:05:47,560 --> 01:05:49,760
Speaker 1: all week long. So again, check that out at Vegas

1329
01:05:49,840 --> 01:05:52,000
Speaker 1: Insider dot com and I'll look forward to talking to

1330
01:05:52,000 --> 01:05:53,600
Speaker 1: all of you during the playoffs.

1331
01:05:53,840 --> 01:05:56,200
Speaker 4: That'll do it here on the Actionary Podcast for Week

1332
01:05:56,320 --> 01:06:00,240
Speaker 4: eighteen recap episode presented by DraftKings. Give us a like

1333
01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:02,520
Speaker 4: on the YouTube video. As always, if you take off,

1334
01:06:02,520 --> 01:06:04,800
Speaker 4: thank you, we really appreciate it. If you haven't yet,

1335
01:06:04,880 --> 01:06:07,560
Speaker 4: check out our new AI quick Slip on X. Just

1336
01:06:07,600 --> 01:06:10,280
Speaker 4: tag Playbook at Playbook and tell it to grab whatever

1337
01:06:10,360 --> 01:06:12,720
Speaker 4: bets you're looking for. It will create a quick slip

1338
01:06:12,720 --> 01:06:14,919
Speaker 4: link for you in a matter of seconds. We will

1339
01:06:14,960 --> 01:06:18,720
Speaker 4: be back for Action Island before Monday Night's game next week.

1340
01:06:18,800 --> 01:06:20,680
Speaker 4: Right here on Action eris YouTube page, as well as

1341
01:06:21,000 --> 01:06:23,560
Speaker 4: more best bets from Brandon to six Pack from Raybond

1342
01:06:23,560 --> 01:06:27,640
Speaker 4: and Stucky for Wildcard Round anytimes, touchdowns from Jill and

1343
01:06:27,800 --> 01:06:30,280
Speaker 4: the whole gang. We will have so much content and

1344
01:06:30,440 --> 01:06:34,760
Speaker 4: articles and videos and audio for next week for Wildcard Weekend,

1345
01:06:35,240 --> 01:06:39,000
Speaker 4: Super Wildcard Weekend, cannot wait. Thank you for listening, Good

1346
01:06:39,080 --> 01:06:41,160
Speaker 4: luck with all your bets. Holy crap.

1347
01:06:41,400 --> 01:07:01,320
Speaker 5: One tonight, Action Network reminds you please please gamble responsibly.

1348
01:07:01,720 --> 01:07:04,560
Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1349
01:07:04,840 --> 01:07:07,440
Speaker 5: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1350
01:07:07,560 --> 01:07:08,360
Speaker 5: hundred Gambler