Speaker 1: So what exactly happened in the two thousand and twenty
Speaker 1: two midterm elections, How did Republicans end up coming short,
Speaker 1: is it as bad as the media is making it
Speaker 1: out to be, and what lessons should we learn? Ye
Speaker 1: I was originally hoping to do this recap of the
Speaker 1: Bitts firms and have it be extremely positive to be
Speaker 1: able to talk about how we won the House by
Speaker 1: you know, a bunch of seeds, we picked up the Senate,
Speaker 1: gubernatorial seats, the list goes on. Obviously, Republicans performance in
Speaker 1: the mid terms was a little underwhelming. However, we we
Speaker 1: also still don't have the full picture. We're still awaiting
Speaker 1: results in the House. We're still awaiting results in the Senate,
Speaker 1: so we don't know what the makeup of the House
Speaker 1: and the Senate is actually going to be yet. So
Speaker 1: I think it's unfair to fully write the story when
Speaker 1: it hasn't hasn't concluded, right, I mean, you can't really
Speaker 1: reflect on the midterm elections until we have the full results.
Speaker 1: But we're going to try to go through where things
Speaker 1: stand now and what you should know about it and
Speaker 1: perhaps some of the reasons why Republicans didn't have the
Speaker 1: red wave that so many people, like myself, we're expecting
Speaker 1: before we do that. I just want to give something
Speaker 1: that I've realized in working in politics for a long time,
Speaker 1: because before I got into media, I was a campaign person.
Speaker 1: I was a political person. I worked on Capitol Hill
Speaker 1: for a few different members of Congress. I worked at
Speaker 1: the NRCC in the historic election. I've worked on campaigns.
Speaker 1: I was a communications director in one of the top
Speaker 1: Senate campaigns in the country in Wisconsin during the election.
Speaker 1: I've worked on primary races. I was a vice president
Speaker 1: of a polling firm for a period of time. I've
Speaker 1: worked as part of consulting teams on top Senate races
Speaker 1: as well. So I've done a lot of this right,
Speaker 1: and so what I'm giving my perspective when I'm trying
Speaker 1: to dig in and get a fuller picture, it's not
Speaker 1: just based off of, you know, just throwing stuff against
Speaker 1: the wall and saying what sticks. It's basing it off
Speaker 1: of a lot of what I've learned, a lot of
Speaker 1: what I've seen. And I'm also talking to people who
Speaker 1: work on campaign committees, who work on these races, who
Speaker 1: are are pulling and looking at numbers in real Time,
Speaker 1: so I sort of collectively put that all together and
Speaker 1: trying to look at what the electorate's going to look like,
Speaker 1: what an election is going to look like. But before
Speaker 1: we feel too beaten down about the state of things,
Speaker 1: I always go back to Time magazine. And I don't
Speaker 1: know if you guys remember, but Time put a cover
Speaker 1: of the you know, the g B elephant and said
Speaker 1: endangered species. And this was May eighteen, two thousand nine.
Speaker 1: And and and what did Republicans do that mid term cycle?
Speaker 1: I know I was at the NBCC at the time.
Speaker 1: We picked up sixty three seats in the House and
Speaker 1: six in the Senate. So you know, elections can be
Speaker 1: swing e They're all over the place. They changed from
Speaker 1: election to elections. So what happened this election cycle does
Speaker 1: not define what's going to happen in But that does
Speaker 1: not mean we should not try to learn lessons from
Speaker 1: it and and try to get an idea of what happened.
Speaker 1: So for starters, what I want to start out with is,
Speaker 1: it's infuriating that we don't have the results of the
Speaker 1: election right, and mail and ballots are are really the
Speaker 1: result of that. And what's wild is if you go
Speaker 1: back to presidential elections of the past. The Associated Press
Speaker 1: was able to call the two thousand twelve presidential race
Speaker 1: for Barack Obama at eleven thirty eight pm Eastern on
Speaker 1: Election Night. The AP called the election for Donald Trump
Speaker 1: at twenty nine am Eastern time the next day after
Speaker 1: the election. But in two thousand twenty two, with all
Speaker 1: the mail and ballots, the AP didn't call the race
Speaker 1: until eleven twenty six a m. Eastern on November seven,
Speaker 1: four days after election day. And now as we are
Speaker 1: awaiting finalized results in states like Arizona and Nevada for
Speaker 1: the Senate races, they're saying we might not know the
Speaker 1: final conclusions until next week. Now does that give you
Speaker 1: a great deal of confidence and our elections? I mean,
Speaker 1: particularly when you're looking at Arizona, where Katie Hobbs, the
Speaker 1: Democrat Canada in the gubernatorial race, is the secretary of State.
Speaker 1: And it also just raises questions because Democrats really try
Speaker 1: to set the groundwork for this. Remember that Joe Biden's
Speaker 1: speech that he gave in prime time before the midterm
Speaker 1: election where he said this, listen, in many states, don't
Speaker 1: start counting those ballots after the polls closing no member eight.
Speaker 1: That means in some cases we want to know the
Speaker 1: winner of the election for a few days until a
Speaker 1: few days after the election, takes time to count all
Speaker 1: legitimate ballots. So obviously laying the groundwork there on Twitter
Speaker 1: also pushed this propaganda. It's welcome message before the election
Speaker 1: said it takes time to count all of the votes.
Speaker 1: We know that the media went in and reinforced this
Speaker 1: idea as well. And look, I mean the use of
Speaker 1: mail and ballots and absentee ballots has grown exponentially since
Speaker 1: covid Right, Democrats really used covid U virus, which is
Speaker 1: about as deadly as the flu, to completely change the
Speaker 1: name of the game when it comes to elections, and
Speaker 1: they smartly did that. Right, We were idiots for not
Speaker 1: fighting it harder, for not pushing back, and and now
Speaker 1: you know we're ruining that day. I mean, you look
Speaker 1: at the use of mail and ballots and absolute ballots
Speaker 1: has grown exponentially from in two thousand four, which was
Speaker 1: a presidential election to presidential election. And then you'll get
Speaker 1: states like Nevada where we're still looking to see what
Speaker 1: the outcome of the Senate race there under Democrat control
Speaker 1: in two thousand twenty one, they passed a B three one,
Speaker 1: which requires county clerks to mail all active registered voters
Speaker 1: a ballot at least fourteen days before an election, making
Speaker 1: the state one of eight to offer universal mail and ballots.
Speaker 1: And I know that everyone tries to tell us there's
Speaker 1: no concerns with mail abouts. This is what the media
Speaker 1: wants to say. But the reality is it just touches
Speaker 1: more hands than if you just go in and you
Speaker 1: make your vote. That's just the reality. Remember when former
Speaker 1: Attorney General Bill Barr had this to say in September
Speaker 1: on CNN Listen, which is the Bipartisan Commission chaired by
Speaker 1: Jimmy Carter and James Baker, said back in two thousand
Speaker 1: nine that mail in voting is fraud with the risk
Speaker 1: of fraud and coercions. And until this improved it, let
Speaker 1: me talk please uh And since this, since that time,
Speaker 1: there's been in the newspapers, in networks, academic studies saying
Speaker 1: it is open to fraud and coercion. The only time
Speaker 1: the narrative changed is after this administration came in. But
Speaker 1: elections that have been held with mail have found substantial
Speaker 1: fraud and coercion. For example, we indicted someone in Texas
Speaker 1: ballots collected, and I'm not concluding that the election was stolen.
Speaker 1: I have no evidence of that. But what I do
Speaker 1: think is it it undermines and it erodes confidence in
Speaker 1: the election when it takes this long to get the results.
Speaker 1: And also Democrats are so concerned about democracy, why would
Speaker 1: they not want to boost confidence in elections? And we
Speaker 1: know that it can be done to get the results
Speaker 1: accurately and in a timely manner, because Florida has done it.
Speaker 1: You know, Florida's the third most populous state. They were
Speaker 1: able to give us results on election night my home
Speaker 1: state of Florida where I live now. You know, Florida
Speaker 1: is a population of twenty two million people and they
Speaker 1: were able to get it done. So what excuse do
Speaker 1: some of these other states have with much lesser populations
Speaker 1: and not being able to produce the results of the election.
Speaker 1: So this is something that needs to change. But we
Speaker 1: also have to be honest with ourselves, and we can't
Speaker 1: change it unless we win in some of these states
Speaker 1: and then go in and change the election laws. And unfortunately,
Speaker 1: to win in some of these states, we have to
Speaker 1: play the game. And the problem right now is Democrat
Speaker 1: has spent four weeks turning out the early vote with
Speaker 1: mail and ballots, of encouraging early voting, and Republicans really
Speaker 1: try to rely on one day on election day. You
Speaker 1: can't win under that scenario. You've got to encourage or
Speaker 1: like even in Florida, I remember Governor to Santass team
Speaker 1: were pushing the early vote. I even went out and
Speaker 1: early voted in Florida. Although Florida has tightened its election laws,
Speaker 1: so it looks a lot different here than it does
Speaker 1: in other states in terms of election to integrity. But
Speaker 1: point being is that we have to play the game
Speaker 1: that's in front of us, right. I know we want
Speaker 1: to change the game. I believe in changing the game.
Speaker 1: I just pointed out my concerns with mail and ballots.
Speaker 1: But until that happens, you have to play the game.
Speaker 1: And the sad thing is you had a heck of
Speaker 1: a lot of Pennsylvanians who voted early before even watching
Speaker 1: that debate when Fetterman completely fell apart on stage against
Speaker 1: Dr Oz And that's not right, that's not fair. But
Speaker 1: the reality is the reality, and so Republicans need to
Speaker 1: play smarter in this new era of politics. Where the
Speaker 1: name of the game has changed, and if we want
Speaker 1: to change it, as I do, got to win to
Speaker 1: do that, and then how are you going to win?
Speaker 1: You gotta play the game that's in front of you,
Speaker 1: and then you can change the dynamics for more integrity
Speaker 1: once you win, quick break more inwo mid terms. The
Speaker 1: second part of it is okay, A lot of us,
Speaker 1: like myself included, thought that this would be a bigger
Speaker 1: election for Republicans, thought it would be a wave. I
Speaker 1: still stand by that the dynamics were set up for
Speaker 1: a wave election. We just didn't get it done. I
Speaker 1: was pointing out earlier the reasons why I thought it
Speaker 1: would be a wave election, and those things still stand.
Speaker 1: I mean, you look at the history of past elections
Speaker 1: since World War Two, the party out of power has
Speaker 1: picked up a net of twenty eight seats and forty
Speaker 1: three seats when a president's approval rating was below fifty.
Speaker 1: We have a president with an approval rating at this
Speaker 1: is a midterm election. History would demonstrate that this should
Speaker 1: have been big electoral gains in the House. Another thing
Speaker 1: to look at regarding the House and the electorate. With
Speaker 1: the Houses, we only needed to net five seats to
Speaker 1: win the majority. There were less seats in play than
Speaker 1: maybe some prior midterm election cycles, meaning the margins were
Speaker 1: already tight in the House. There was less fertile ground,
Speaker 1: so we were never going to have a sixty and
Speaker 1: you know, a net sixty three night like we did
Speaker 1: in the mid term elections. But we should have picked
Speaker 1: up more seats than what we are potentially on track
Speaker 1: too picked up. That's also a fact. Another reason I
Speaker 1: was looking and thinking that it was going to be
Speaker 1: a big wave election. It was the environmental factors, right.
Speaker 1: I just mentioned a president with a forty two percent
Speaker 1: approval rating, the fact that we have forty year high inflation,
Speaker 1: record high gas prices, All of these dynamics in play
Speaker 1: environmental factors that would prove positive to Republicans, particularly since
Speaker 1: Republicans have always done better and did do better on
Speaker 1: those who thought the inflation was the number one issue,
Speaker 1: which it was according to exit polling. I was also
Speaker 1: looking at where Democrats were spending time in the final days,
Speaker 1: and you had the Democrat Governors Association creating an independent
Speaker 1: Expenditure Committee in New York to boost Kathy Hokel, a
Speaker 1: state where Democrats out number of Republicans two to one.
Speaker 1: You had the Clintons spending time there, Joe Biden spending
Speaker 1: time they're all out for HOCO, which led me to
Speaker 1: believe that if they're spending time in a state like that,
Speaker 1: what does that mean for the rest of the country.
Speaker 1: We had Joe Biden also spending time in a state
Speaker 1: like Oregon, a deep blue state. And you had the
Speaker 1: first lady spending time in Virginia's tenth congressional district for
Speaker 1: Jennifer Wexton, which is a Biden plus nineteen district. She
Speaker 1: spent time there on mid term the day before the
Speaker 1: midterm election. So a lot of that concluded me to
Speaker 1: believe that Democrats were playing defense to a certain degree.
Speaker 1: And then you also had the polling and passed elections
Speaker 1: which underestimated support for Republicans. You know, this happened in
Speaker 1: a lot of states, in a lot of areas in
Speaker 1: the two thousand, eighteen and twenty ten elections. And if
Speaker 1: you look at the twenty elections, national polls were the
Speaker 1: most inaccurate they've been in forty years. State polls most
Speaker 1: inaccurate in twenty years, and and looking at that, national
Speaker 1: polls overestimated support for Biden by an average of three
Speaker 1: point nine percent. State poll were similarly skewed towards the
Speaker 1: Democrats towards Joe Biden, with a two favorable snapshot of
Speaker 1: him by four point three percent. So I thought, here
Speaker 1: we are again, where the polls are not picking up
Speaker 1: what is actually happening and what has all the makings
Speaker 1: and the fundamentals for a big way of election. So
Speaker 1: I still stand by that all those factors were true.
Speaker 1: We had a ripe environment for a way of election,
Speaker 1: but it didn't materialize. So you might ask me, well, Lisa,
Speaker 1: why didn't it materialize. Here's what I've concluded in conversations
Speaker 1: with people also looking at exit polling and trying to
Speaker 1: get a bigger picture of why we didn't quite have
Speaker 1: the night that a lot of us, including myself. I'm
Speaker 1: admitting I thought it was gonna be a bigger night
Speaker 1: than it did. I don't think I was wrong to
Speaker 1: have thought that, but I did miss some things that
Speaker 1: ended up happening in the midterm elections which I wasn't expecting.
Speaker 1: Right again, we have to learn from these things. We
Speaker 1: have to look at what happened and and and try
Speaker 1: to look at what do we need to do different
Speaker 1: heading into again, what happened this election cycle doesn't define
Speaker 1: as I pointed out with Time magazine saying that Republican
Speaker 1: Party was extinct in nineteen or two thousand nine and
Speaker 1: the Republicans went on to have a massive midterm election
Speaker 1: in So you have to take everything with a grain assault. So,
Speaker 1: as I was talking about, the conditions for a wave
Speaker 1: were there, but we didn't execute. So why not you
Speaker 1: know what happened where it was a breakdown? I mean,
Speaker 1: if if you think about midterm elections are normally a
Speaker 1: referendum on the president the party in charge. Presidential elections
Speaker 1: are these choice elections where you're really choosing between these
Speaker 1: two people. But in order to win a midterm election,
Speaker 1: you need a couple of things. You've got to motivate
Speaker 1: your base more than the other side, and you've got
Speaker 1: to win independence. And if you look at exit polling,
Speaker 1: we didn't do that. Democrats were motivated to turn out
Speaker 1: in a large part because of doubs, because of the
Speaker 1: issue of abortion, which we see an exit pulling actually
Speaker 1: ended up being second most important issue in national exit polls.
Speaker 1: The Democrat base they were motivated. We should have been
Speaker 1: more motivated, So they gave them an issue, a reason
Speaker 1: to turn out, and we didn't went over independence, And
Speaker 1: I think to some degree that also speaks of what
Speaker 1: kind of society we're living in where the desire to
Speaker 1: murder a child supersedes you know, being murdered in a
Speaker 1: street with crime. But you know, that's where we are
Speaker 1: as a country. It's pretty wild. And you know, there's
Speaker 1: been a lot of finger pointing at Trump this election cycle,
Speaker 1: so I want to get into that a little bit
Speaker 1: as well. So I think some of it's fair in
Speaker 1: terms of, you know, their candidate quality argument that's out there.
Speaker 1: I mean, you look at someone like Doug Mastriano. He
Speaker 1: he did get crushed in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race. I
Speaker 1: mean that's just a fact. He shouldn't have lost by
Speaker 1: that much in Pennsylvania and Dr Oz losed by much less.
Speaker 1: But I think Mastriano really hurt him. I'm not even
Speaker 1: an OS fan, but that is just what the number show.
Speaker 1: And you look at Don Bullock in New Hampshire, he
Speaker 1: lost significantly as well, like that race should have been competitive,
Speaker 1: is in So some of that is true in terms
Speaker 1: of you know, the candidate selection and sure, yeah, voters
Speaker 1: have to go out and select these candidates. But you know,
Speaker 1: if Trump hadn't endorsed them, would they have been elected?
Speaker 1: I don't know, Probably not right. And then you know
Speaker 1: he also had about a hundred million in the bank
Speaker 1: and didn't use that to boost some of these candidates,
Speaker 1: and you know throughout the general elections. I mean, I
Speaker 1: think those criticisms are are somewhat fair. I mean, we
Speaker 1: got to look at this and look at it truthfully.
Speaker 1: And then too, you know, as I was mentioning, in
Speaker 1: the midterm election, it's tend to be a referendum. I
Speaker 1: do think Trump having a big role in this election
Speaker 1: and also looking ahead at and talking about presidential election
Speaker 1: maybe made it more of a choice election where it's
Speaker 1: not just a referendum, it's about and a whole another
Speaker 1: aspect of it. So I think the water's got a
Speaker 1: little muddied with the abortion aspect. And then you know,
Speaker 1: Trump having a big presence in the midterm elections as well.
Speaker 1: I mean, we know that he motivates the Republican base,
Speaker 1: but we also know that he turns off some independence
Speaker 1: and that you know, Democrats hate him, and when you
Speaker 1: have to turn your base out more that does have
Speaker 1: an impact. That's not, you know, be mean towards Trump.
Speaker 1: It's just to actually try to really look at this
Speaker 1: and dig in and figure out what happened. But if
Speaker 1: we're going to take him at Trump, which a lot
Speaker 1: of people are, you gotta look at the bigger picture too.
Speaker 1: I mean, the Republican Party at large really failed to
Speaker 1: do what they were supposed to do. I mean, you
Speaker 1: gotta look at Kevin McCarthy, you gotta look at the
Speaker 1: committee chairman, and Ronald McDaniel at the r n C,
Speaker 1: or Tom Emer at the nr c C or Rick
Speaker 1: Scott at the NSC as well, because they didn't do
Speaker 1: what they're supposed to do either. So I mean, if
Speaker 1: you're gonna do a pox on Trump's house, it's really
Speaker 1: got to be everyone you look at. Mitch McConnell probably
Speaker 1: deserves a significant share of the blame because he canceled
Speaker 1: ten million in TV ads for Blake Masters in Arizona
Speaker 1: while spending millions in Alaska. When you're gonna have a
Speaker 1: Republican candidate end up winning in Alaska regardless, you're always
Speaker 1: going to have a Republican out of that race, So
Speaker 1: why not spend the money on races that would define
Speaker 1: the balance of power. So I think Mitch McConnell deserves
Speaker 1: a significant, you know, part of the blame. But you know,
Speaker 1: the bottom line is everyone's sort of trying to decide
Speaker 1: in real time what these election and mean, and what
Speaker 1: the midterms elections mean when we still don't know what
Speaker 1: the final resorts are, right Like, we're still waiting for
Speaker 1: house races. We're still waiting to figure out what's going
Speaker 1: to happen in the Senate. We also have the runoff
Speaker 1: in December with Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker as well.
Speaker 1: So we're really trying to write a story that is,
Speaker 1: you know, still somewhat unwritten as we sort of await
Speaker 1: some of these details and the outcomes of some of
Speaker 1: these elections. I do want to end with this in
Speaker 1: the sense of, Okay, yeah, we're all disappointed, right we
Speaker 1: were expecting a bigger election, and you know, I admitted
Speaker 1: I really thought it was going to be bigger. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think I had justifications for thinking that, but it
Speaker 1: didn't end up the way I believed. I'm going to
Speaker 1: take ownership of that, but there were some bright spots
Speaker 1: as well. I think some of those bright spots is
Speaker 1: the fact that Joe Biden is going to remain in office.
Speaker 1: Right it looked like they were trying to kick him
Speaker 1: to the curb. You can't do that based off of
Speaker 1: this election outcome. So Joe Biden will likely be the
Speaker 1: candidate in a damaged candidate. You know, approval ratings at
Speaker 1: fort and the economy is probably going to get worse sadly,
Speaker 1: gas prices, all these things. Things are still going to
Speaker 1: hang over him heading into election. Republicans will also end
Speaker 1: up probably winning the popular vote as well. A really
Speaker 1: really bright spot in the state of Florida with Governor
Speaker 1: Ron De Sante's I mean, he beat Charlie crist by
Speaker 1: twenty points. That's insane. That's the biggest margin in any
Speaker 1: Florida gubernator race in forty years. I mean, that's literally insane.
Speaker 1: Florida was previously a competitive state. Now it's a red state.
Speaker 1: He won sixty two of the state's sixty seven counties.
Speaker 1: That's crazy. He won the heavily Hispanic Miami Diade county.
Speaker 1: That's the first up governor candidate to do it in
Speaker 1: twenty years. And what I think he did even more
Speaker 1: importantly is that with this midterm election. Yeah, there was
Speaker 1: a lot to vote against with Democrats, but Governor de
Speaker 1: Santas gave Floridians something to vote for. I mean, he
Speaker 1: led with freedom, He kept Florida open, He fought the
Speaker 1: opposition on that, he took on corporations with Disney, if
Speaker 1: he fought indoctrination in schools. Even if you look at
Speaker 1: his response to Hurricane Ian, it was flawless, so much
Speaker 1: so that even Joe Biden gave him props. And you know,
Speaker 1: the bottom line is that Rep. Bookends are still going
Speaker 1: to be better off than they were before this election
Speaker 1: in terms of you know, we will gain seats in
Speaker 1: the House. We'll see what happens in the Senate. So
Speaker 1: not the outcome that we wanted, but we got to
Speaker 1: look to the future, and you look to the future
Speaker 1: and Democrats also have a terrible Senate map in so
Speaker 1: we'll probably increase our margins that cycle. Next cycle, they're
Speaker 1: defending twice as many seats as US and including nine
Speaker 1: really really competitive Senate seats as well. Was the selection
Speaker 1: what we wanted? No, we still don't have the final results,
Speaker 1: so I think we kind of need to hold out
Speaker 1: see what the full picture looks like at the end
Speaker 1: of all of this, but we also have a lot
Speaker 1: to look forward to. I do think that could go
Speaker 1: our away, and I do believe that the issues that
Speaker 1: remain in the country and the country falling apart. I mean,
Speaker 1: we can't just give up. We can't just stop fighting.
Speaker 1: We can't just seed the country to these people. We've got,
Speaker 1: you know, big, big problems, and it's going to take
Speaker 1: real leadership. And we've realized that we do have real
Speaker 1: leaders in this country as well. It's gonna be okay.
Speaker 1: But what we'll keep following us as we move forward
Speaker 1: and you know, we get more information, but you know,
Speaker 1: don't give up. The fight continues and it's all going
Speaker 1: to be okay. Y that was my election recap. I
Speaker 1: hope you enjoyed it. We're obviously going to cover this
Speaker 1: issue more as we move forward, as we learn more
Speaker 1: as well. I want to thank John Cassio for putting
Speaker 1: the show together. I want to thank you guys at
Speaker 1: home for listening as always every Monday and Thursday, but
Speaker 1: you can listen throughout the week The Truth of Lisa
Speaker 1: Booth and feel free to leave us a review on
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts. Love reading You reviews. Love seeing your ratings
Speaker 1: as well, so thanks so much for listening