Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm
Speaker 1: your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: Eighty Week one is here. It is time to talk
Speaker 1: about our best bets, and with me to do that
Speaker 1: is a fellow investor. What I will say in a
Speaker 1: Nick Sirianni Coach of the Year ticket. That's Sean Green,
Speaker 1: the co founder of the Sports Gambling podcast Network and
Speaker 1: co host of the Sports Gambling Podcasts. Find him at
Speaker 1: Twitter at Sean T.
Speaker 2: Green. That's s e. A. And Shawn. Welcome to the show.
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me, Thanks to be back on the show.
Speaker 4: And yes, I'm so glad you are all over the
Speaker 4: Nick Sirianni Coach of the Year prop as well, because
Speaker 4: everyone says, Sean, you're an Eagles fan, it's blind homerism.
Speaker 4: But then when I have plays that are pro Eagles,
Speaker 4: which I am a blind homer at times that both
Speaker 4: people don't believe me. But you laid out the case
Speaker 4: very well. I think in the chat or when we
Speaker 4: were going back and forth. When you're looking for coach
Speaker 4: of the year, first year coaches really have an advantage
Speaker 4: because it's all about exceeding expectations that narrative. Eagles are
Speaker 4: coming off of four win season, so if they can
Speaker 4: get to nine, ten, even eleven, wins Coach of the Year.
Speaker 4: And I think when we were when I got down
Speaker 4: on it was fifty to one. I think he may
Speaker 4: have dropped to like thirty five to one.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I think I was thirty five to one
Speaker 2: when I took it.
Speaker 1: By the way, what we were talking about is we
Speaker 1: were both in an FSGA prop league where you basically
Speaker 1: draft prop bets, and that was my first one and
Speaker 1: I did win it by a few, you know, dozen
Speaker 1: thousand dollars last year. But yeah, we were talking about that.
Speaker 1: We both like that bet, and Sean messaged me afterwards
Speaker 1: his actual ticket on that bet.
Speaker 2: Yes, So, yeah, didn't.
Speaker 3: I didn't get it.
Speaker 4: You snaked me in the in the draft on it
Speaker 4: because I thought I'd be able to wait on it,
Speaker 4: and I kep thinking it was just more of a
Speaker 4: homer angle. But the Eagles to win the division is
Speaker 4: like five to one. If Nick Sirianni comes in and
Speaker 4: takes his team to win the NFC East, it just
Speaker 4: seems priced incorrectly there and a lot of the I
Speaker 4: think it's like four to the last six.
Speaker 3: We're rookie head coaches, so fun times on that one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can definitely make a profit on Coach of
Speaker 1: the Year bets, which we will talk about on our
Speaker 1: separate new podcast. Sean, I will be launching Nick Sirianni
Speaker 1: Coach of the Year all day, every day, but.
Speaker 3: For maybe one to get behind him, let's do it man.
Speaker 1: At this point though, we are actually going to be
Speaker 1: talking about week one, our three best bets of the
Speaker 1: weekend each Now, what was funny is we did not
Speaker 1: talk about these before selecting them.
Speaker 2: And right before I said, Sean, you know, we haven't
Speaker 2: talked us through. Do you want to maybe throw it
Speaker 2: out so we know whether or not.
Speaker 1: We're going to double up, And my worry was confirmed
Speaker 1: that we both had one overlapping thing bets.
Speaker 2: So I will choose something different for it. I will
Speaker 2: let Sean.
Speaker 1: Explain, but it was my favorite bet of the weekend, Shohn,
Speaker 1: So we'll go through that and then we will just
Speaker 1: through the remaining games just very quickly, whether we have
Speaker 1: a lean or feel on it. Just in terms of
Speaker 1: the spread. Again, one of my picks is and over under,
Speaker 1: so we can talk about that. But again let me
Speaker 1: get some very quick housekeeping out of the way before
Speaker 1: we dive into it. First, the Betting Pros podcast is
Speaker 1: now going to be three times per week. On Monday,
Speaker 1: I'm going to record an episode with a guest talking
Speaker 1: about the lines and early look at the next week's
Speaker 1: lines and see whether or not we think there's any
Speaker 1: value that we could make.
Speaker 2: Now, what we expect the lines to do.
Speaker 1: On Wednesday is going to be our standing college football
Speaker 1: podcast with Joe Pizap.
Speaker 2: And Scott Bagman. You should have already heard that as well.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be every Wednesday and then Thursday. We were
Speaker 1: recording this Wednesday, but usually on Thursdays will be this podcast.
Speaker 1: I will have a rotating guest, hopefully Sean will grace
Speaker 1: us with his appearance a couple more times, and we'll
Speaker 1: be breaking down each of our three best bets of
Speaker 1: the week. Second, we are doing a giveaway. It is
Speaker 1: assigned to a tongue Iiloa Jersey. Entry is very simple.
Speaker 2: Just leave a review for.
Speaker 1: The show on Apple Podcasts or cast box and then
Speaker 1: go to Betting Pros dot com slash review. It's a
Speaker 1: different url to side Bettingpros dot com slash review.
Speaker 2: That is it. It is very simple.
Speaker 1: Also, if you want to triple your entries, all you
Speaker 1: got to do is be subscribed to our YouTube channel
Speaker 1: at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. And also if
Speaker 1: you are, that's good because we do a Sunday morning
Speaker 1: livestream over there from eleven to twelve, me and Matt
Speaker 1: Parral breaking down the games. I will be giving out
Speaker 1: my favorite props which I come up with because I
Speaker 1: do projections for every Fantasy relevant player each and every week,
Speaker 1: so I find the most value there. Again, that's eleven
Speaker 1: to twelve Eastern at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.
Speaker 1: All right, I've talked a ton Sean, Let's get into it. Remember,
Speaker 1: we have consensus lines over at Bettingpros dot com.
Speaker 2: That's where I'll be looking.
Speaker 1: But obviously they give you a lot of different books
Speaker 1: so you can check out what you like, what you.
Speaker 2: Don't, which one is favorable, Sean.
Speaker 1: Also, we have our app, by the way, sorry, I
Speaker 1: want to mention that Betting Pros app. It's awesome. You
Speaker 1: make picks right in the app. You see yourself on
Speaker 1: a leader board. You can, you know, look at everybody
Speaker 1: and how everything is doing. The percentage of experts that
Speaker 1: are picking a bet. I'm done, Sean Go, I'll stop talking.
Speaker 1: Please your first pick, sir, what will it?
Speaker 4: Well, let's let's let's knock this one out of the
Speaker 4: out of the way here. We were both on the
Speaker 4: Seattle Seahawks lay in two and a half at the
Speaker 4: Indianapolis Colts. Again, I went through the Carson Wentz saga
Speaker 4: last year, and now Carson Wentz on a new team,
Speaker 4: didn't have much of a preseason, didn't have much of
Speaker 4: a training camp. Sure, he has the rapport with Frank Reich,
Speaker 4: but I think that foot injury was a big issue
Speaker 4: for him and just not being able to connect with
Speaker 4: the receivers.
Speaker 3: T Y Hilton is out and it's not just you know,
Speaker 3: Wentz's injuries.
Speaker 4: Really why I'm taking this, And normally I'm not a
Speaker 4: guy who likes to you know, a non conference road
Speaker 4: favorite danger spot, but I think the injuries surrounding the
Speaker 4: offensive line for the Colts are really really going to
Speaker 4: be an issue. Quentin Nelson all pro. He didn't practice Wednesday.
Speaker 4: He's dealing with the back injury that's flaired. He's been
Speaker 4: on the COVID list. He also had this similar foot
Speaker 4: injury that Carson Wentz had. Xavier Rhoades he didn't practice
Speaker 4: as well. He's day to day with a calf injury.
Speaker 4: I think that's gonna be a big issue, especially when
Speaker 4: you talk about guarding DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in
Speaker 4: this new Shane Waldron offense, which really could be an issue.
Speaker 4: And then lastly, left tackle, it's really they very well
Speaker 4: could be down to their third string left tackle for
Speaker 4: the Colts. Anthony Costans are retired. Eric Fisher seemed like
Speaker 4: the guy that was supposed to replace him. He's coming
Speaker 4: off an achilles injury, a late achilles injury. He was
Speaker 4: just on the COVID list. He's coming off the COVID
Speaker 4: list today. There's a chance he starts, but again, not
Speaker 4: much of a camp. I can't imagine. He's an amazing shape.
Speaker 4: So I think they could be down to their third
Speaker 4: left tackle. And then I'm just high on the Seattle
Speaker 4: Seahawks and Russell Wilson. I mean Russell Wilson since twenty twelve,
Speaker 4: eighty five sixty nine and six against the spread, and
Speaker 4: he actually breaks that non conference rule twenty one fifteen
Speaker 4: and two against the spread, So it's a bet against
Speaker 4: these Colts injuries and a bet on Seattle.
Speaker 1: So this line, I think, Sean, you can reckon move
Speaker 1: I'm wrong. I think like when it originally opened up,
Speaker 1: before you know the Wentz injury or anything like that, I
Speaker 1: think the Colts were favored by two and a half points,
Speaker 1: so it's gone big with the went injury, which is fine.
Speaker 2: I don't understand this one. You're right.
Speaker 1: This was my number one as well, and I was
Speaker 1: talking about it and maybe you can explain it.
Speaker 2: Do you have these lines sometimes?
Speaker 1: I do, certainly where I look at it and I go, well,
Speaker 1: this is the public's gotta be all over the Seahawks
Speaker 1: in this game. I imagine this seems like a spread
Speaker 1: where they are begging you to take the Seahawks.
Speaker 2: Does that ever make you nervous?
Speaker 1: Because I agree with everything you said, given the given
Speaker 1: the injuries to the offensive line, given the Wentz, Wentz
Speaker 1: is going to play.
Speaker 2: That's great.
Speaker 1: He's had like no time to get up to speed
Speaker 1: in this offense or at least have chemistry with any
Speaker 1: of these receivers, which, by the way, t Y Hilton
Speaker 1: is out. So it's Michael Pittman Junior, who I love.
Speaker 1: But no time to get up to speed in this
Speaker 1: this under a field goal Like, I don't know, does it.
Speaker 1: Were you ever when it feels like they're begging you
Speaker 1: to take a line, Oh.
Speaker 4: Yeah, definitely, And I think you kind of have to
Speaker 4: bring it back to what's your handicap and style. Mine
Speaker 4: is watch all the games, look at the numbers, and
Speaker 4: break it down from there. There's some people who just
Speaker 4: bet strictly. Hey, when whenever the public gets up to
Speaker 4: eighty ninety percent, that's what And there's certainly I do
Speaker 4: factor that in.
Speaker 3: But in this.
Speaker 4: Spot, this Seattle team is just too much to pass up.
Speaker 4: And again, the Colts, to me, were I like fading
Speaker 4: them on the wind total just because they have such
Speaker 4: a hard Like you look at their schedule, those first
Speaker 4: five games they have out of the gate really a
Speaker 4: brutal and then you throw on the offensive line injury
Speaker 4: news and that kind of centers around some of my
Speaker 4: other picks. I love fading a team with offensive line
Speaker 4: injury news because you're in the fantasy world. When a
Speaker 4: star player or the quarterback goes down or is injured,
Speaker 4: that it's a lot of fantasy news. It's factored into
Speaker 4: the line. It's factored into the public betting. But one
Speaker 4: of the places where I still think there is some
Speaker 4: value is people that don't keep up with the O
Speaker 4: line injury news and just assume, like, ah, they're throwing
Speaker 4: whoever out there and left tackle. But that's a huge difference.
Speaker 4: We saw Wentz last year dealing with the banged up line.
Speaker 4: I mean, he looked horrible even when he had time
Speaker 4: to throw. But the fact that the Eagles started what
Speaker 4: fourteen different offensive line combinations didn't help Carson Wentz last year.
Speaker 4: He doesn't have the mobility that he had like in
Speaker 4: his near MVP season of twenty seventeen, so I think
Speaker 4: that's really going to be a huge issue for him.
Speaker 1: I couldn't agree with this more really, And he's not good.
Speaker 1: He wasn't good under pressure last year. That It's not
Speaker 1: like the Seahawks have an amazing pass rush or anything
Speaker 1: like that. But there'll be enough to get after him
Speaker 1: given the state of that offensive line.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't get this one.
Speaker 1: And also, I mean we haven't even talked, by the
Speaker 1: way about the other side of the ball, right, like,
Speaker 1: other than we love Russell Wilson and he's great, but
Speaker 1: you know, the Colts have a very good defense, assuming
Speaker 1: even the Xavier Rhodes is healthy. I mean, their secondary
Speaker 1: is fine. They match up fine here, except that there
Speaker 1: are two things. Number One, I think we're gonna see
Speaker 1: Sean to repeat kind of what we saw last year
Speaker 1: with the Seahawks, which is they're gonna let us cook early.
Speaker 1: Then they're gonna lose a couple of guys. I've said
Speaker 1: this on the Fantasy podcast. They're gonna lose a few games.
Speaker 1: Their defense is going to be exhausted because somehow letting
Speaker 1: Russ cook. They had a couple of three and outs,
Speaker 1: the defense got exhausted. We've said, Pete Carroll is seventy
Speaker 1: years old, dude, Like we we know what Pete Carroll
Speaker 1: is at this point, right, He's gonna be terrified.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be all right.
Speaker 1: We gotta run the ball, got to control that clock.
Speaker 1: But for now, I do think they are going to
Speaker 1: let him cook. And the good thing is the Colts
Speaker 1: don't blitz a ton seventeen percent of the time last year,
Speaker 1: and Wilson just carves it up if he has time, man,
Speaker 1: he's like he's great. I mean he's always great. But
Speaker 1: when not he had one hundred and made passer rating
Speaker 1: last year when opposing offenses didn't a defense is didn't blit.
Speaker 2: So totally with you.
Speaker 1: This is our combined betting pros best bet of the week.
Speaker 1: We will go with the trap bet. And by the way,
Speaker 1: this is the only thing I will say about the
Speaker 1: public versus you know, pros sort of thing.
Speaker 2: Fading the public sean.
Speaker 1: And by the way, I don't I haven't seen the split,
Speaker 1: Like right now, I don't. I'm just assuming this is
Speaker 1: going to be a public play, but I haven't seen
Speaker 1: necessarily the money that's coming in yet. But it's not
Speaker 1: always wrong, right, Like it's the books and you know
Speaker 1: they have like long term sort of views, but any
Speaker 1: one game, like it's not like feeding the public. It's like, well,
Speaker 1: if the public reaches this number, you know.
Speaker 2: They lose.
Speaker 1: Sometimes they win, especially early on when I think books
Speaker 1: are still struggling with the models, right, So I'm really
Speaker 1: okay with that.
Speaker 4: Definitely in week one especially could be good for the
Speaker 4: public because there's or some of like myself who comes
Speaker 4: in with some opinions on the season, on the teams,
Speaker 4: and yeah, there's some value there for sure.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you're gonna hate this next pick. Okay, I'm not.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay it out here right now. My guess
Speaker 1: is you're going to be on the other side of
Speaker 1: this one and you can be it. And we talked
Speaker 1: about being a homer. Okay, do you know the team
Speaker 1: I read for Sean It's not been a pretty existence
Speaker 1: for me in multiple ways, but especially not my football.
Speaker 1: I am going to take the Jets here getting five
Speaker 1: and a half on the road against the Pathers. Here's
Speaker 1: the deal. Sam Darnold, revenge game. I totally get it.
Speaker 1: McCaffrey's back healthy, I get it. I like Terras Marshall,
Speaker 1: I like the receivers.
Speaker 2: I get it. But you just mentioned something about offensive lines,
Speaker 2: which I feel like you're right. The public is like,
Speaker 2: we don't really care.
Speaker 1: Does anybody out there understand that Carolina has one of
Speaker 1: the worst offensive lines in the league. And not only that,
Speaker 1: but then you're just like, oh, by the way, one
Speaker 1: of our better I guess offensive lineman.
Speaker 2: I don't know how you rank them. They're not very good.
Speaker 2: John Miller. Oh, by the way, you're out with COVID.
Speaker 1: So they just lost another offensive lineman in what was
Speaker 1: already an offensive line that is barely hanging on by
Speaker 1: a thread. So I guess it's gonna be Dennis Dally.
Speaker 1: I don't even know it's gonna be terrible. Now, it's
Speaker 1: not like the Jets have this amazing pass rush. If
Speaker 1: they had Carl Lawston it i'd feel a lot better
Speaker 1: about it. Everybody's gonna be on the Panthers on this one,
Speaker 1: then I completely understand why.
Speaker 2: But here's the thing about the Jets. I didn't know
Speaker 2: how to value.
Speaker 1: Zack Wilson when he came on. But like I was,
Speaker 1: I was very very hesitant. Okay, I don't I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't dive deep into film in college football. I
Speaker 1: need to wait to see it here. I had a
Speaker 1: lot of people who loved him, a lot of people
Speaker 1: who didn't like him. But I've watched him closely in
Speaker 1: this preseason and I think I am just fully in
Speaker 1: on this and it's it's scary, but watching him a
Speaker 1: couple of things.
Speaker 2: Number One, the game speed does not look like too
Speaker 2: much for him.
Speaker 1: Okay, he's got good footwork, he's very poised, he knows
Speaker 1: how to kind of get it. What means something to me,
Speaker 1: And maybe this is done, maybe it's narrative. They just
Speaker 1: came out with the captains. He was voted a team
Speaker 1: captain by his teammates. Okay, I think you had a
Speaker 1: very Johnny Manziel possibility here with Zach Wilson, just given
Speaker 1: sort of you know, his persona, his confidence, stuff like that,
Speaker 1: it might be there. But for me, I'm encouraged by
Speaker 1: what I see. I think he's gonna have a big
Speaker 1: game here. They don't have tape on him, they don't
Speaker 1: know what to expect necessarily from what they're going to see.
Speaker 2: I think the defense is good enough, and I think
Speaker 2: Sala can.
Speaker 1: Make up for the lack of talent that they necessarily
Speaker 1: have right now, especially without loss. And so I don't know, man,
Speaker 1: I think I don't know if they're gonna win, but
Speaker 1: I think this is a field little game, so I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go with it. I imagine, like most humans, you
Speaker 1: think I'm insane, But no.
Speaker 3: No, I was going back and forth on this one.
Speaker 4: What it came down to me is do I feel
Speaker 4: comfortable laying five and a half with Sam Darnold and
Speaker 4: no offensive line? And I just can't come to that.
Speaker 3: I'm with you. I'm also high on Zach Wilson.
Speaker 4: We had Joe Thaisman on our podcast right around the draft,
Speaker 4: and he was super high on Zach Wilson. I ended
Speaker 4: up watching a bunch of BYU during the season, and
Speaker 4: I'm on board. I have Zach Wilson in Best Ball
Speaker 4: because I do think they're gonna be Yeah, that's where
Speaker 4: you can.
Speaker 3: Throw a bunch.
Speaker 4: And again, you bring in Robert Sala for a reason
Speaker 4: to get the most out of this defensive.
Speaker 3: Talent, and I think they're able to do that.
Speaker 4: I do like Carolina, you know this season in fantasy
Speaker 4: I'm a big Robbie Anderson guy, and you know, have
Speaker 4: McCaffrey back will certainly help Donald.
Speaker 3: But again, just watched Sam.
Speaker 4: Darnald last year and then imagine this guy laying five
Speaker 4: and a half points against any team, Like you can
Speaker 4: you really feel good about that?
Speaker 3: You can't?
Speaker 2: Now five and a half again.
Speaker 1: I you know, the guy who co hosted Matt Parrel
Speaker 1: host the Delly Just podcast, he was always like, I
Speaker 1: don't know, man, between four and five and a half,
Speaker 1: that's like the dead zone. I feel like the books
Speaker 1: don't really know what to do with it. I don't
Speaker 1: know what to do with it, so I stay away
Speaker 1: and I do get that to me though. Yeah, it
Speaker 1: is in the realm of possibility that Robbie Anderson has
Speaker 1: a giant, monstrous game as he and Darnald stick it
Speaker 1: to the Jets right like, it's totally fine, totally possible.
Speaker 1: But I don't know, dude. I think right now, without
Speaker 1: anybody really knowing what they're gonna see from the Jets,
Speaker 1: with Elijah Moore getting healthy, Corey Davis has looked fantastic.
Speaker 2: I know the running backs aren't.
Speaker 1: Awesome or anything like that, but you do have enough
Speaker 1: depth there. Tivin Coleman is serviceable. Ti Johnson's looked fine.
Speaker 1: You've got Michael Carter. I don't know if he Ryan's
Speaker 1: gonna play, but the offensive system with Lafleur, I really
Speaker 1: do think. And again, the Jets back in the Rex
Speaker 1: Ryan days had a lot of talent on defense, obviously,
Speaker 1: but you can make up for not that much talent
Speaker 1: if you have a really good defensive coach, which I
Speaker 1: think sala is.
Speaker 2: So I think the Jets are gonna come here. I
Speaker 2: think they're gonna surprise some people.
Speaker 1: Again, I'm not predicting the win, although if I take
Speaker 1: a team under a touchdown, I don't know.
Speaker 3: You got you gotta put a little on that money line.
Speaker 4: Gotta do and again you predicting that people will be
Speaker 4: on the Panthers. I think is is a smart way
Speaker 4: to go. I would hang around. I don't think you
Speaker 4: have to bet this one early. I think there may
Speaker 4: be is a chance you get it up to six
Speaker 4: points if you're just gonna be taking the points.
Speaker 3: And one last point. I think the Jets are.
Speaker 4: Building their team the right way, Unlike you look at
Speaker 4: the Giants, who in the first round are drafting Cadarius Tony.
Speaker 4: You know, Jets are Jets are putting investing draft capital
Speaker 4: in the offensive line. You got Makai Becton and Elijah
Speaker 4: Vera Tucker. That's the kind of foundation you want blocking. Uh,
Speaker 4: you know for a rookie quarterback like Zach Wilson. So
Speaker 4: and I'm super high on Sala as a coach.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean what's interesting is the offensive line really didn't
Speaker 1: play that well this preseason. But I'm throwing it out
Speaker 1: like Beck then had a weird preseason. He just cleared
Speaker 1: concussion protocol, so he should be fine. But they have
Speaker 1: a lot of talent there.
Speaker 2: They did they did it the.
Speaker 1: Right way, which they didn't do for poor Sam Darnold,
Speaker 1: so they didn't invest. I think offensively, I will say
Speaker 1: it's funny, it might climb, but there are I'm looking
Speaker 1: again at betting pros consensus lines.
Speaker 2: The consensus line is five and a half. The overwhelming
Speaker 2: majority of books are at five and a half.
Speaker 1: But to the extent they're not. They're actually at five.
Speaker 1: Bed MGM, FanDuel they're at five. So I wait, now,
Speaker 1: it's it's priced down a little bit. It's like minus
Speaker 1: one oh four a little bit on the money line.
Speaker 1: It's one ninety right now consensus for the Jets. So
Speaker 1: you can get two ten at like DraftKings and stuff
Speaker 1: like that plus one ninety. So yeah, I'll be sprinkling
Speaker 1: on it. But good, all right, gua. I was almost
Speaker 1: certain everybody's gonna be like, come on your Homer, and
Speaker 1: if people have listened this podcasts for the last couple
Speaker 1: of years, I never think that, like I'm not somebody
Speaker 1: picked the Jets in week one with little tape with
Speaker 1: some optimism that I'm I'm allowing myself until it all
Speaker 1: gets smashed. This week.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take him go to bed number two. What
Speaker 2: do you got?
Speaker 3: Okay?
Speaker 4: Bet number two another non conference game. This time I'm
Speaker 4: fading the road team and I'm taking the home team.
Speaker 4: Give me the Tennessee Titans laying three points against the
Speaker 4: Arizona Cardinals. This to me is really based on the
Speaker 4: you know, I like this as a fantasy game as well.
Speaker 3: For Tannehill.
Speaker 4: If you're looking to put him in some stacks with
Speaker 4: Julio Jones and AJ Brown, I think it's a good bet. Really,
Speaker 4: this is just a bet against this Cardinal secondary, which
Speaker 4: had issues before. Now you throw in the fact that
Speaker 4: they lost Darquez Denard and then Malcolm Butler randomly retired.
Speaker 4: They're starting a cornerback Byron Murphy who hasn't played since
Speaker 4: twenty eighteen. These are the kind of teams I like
Speaker 4: to go against. I'm not a massive Kyler fan. On
Speaker 4: the road, I think vrabel is a better coach as well.
Speaker 4: I think they have an advantage there. And then Titans.
Speaker 4: You look at their non conference record twenty seven and
Speaker 4: sixteen against the spread in conference home games. It's a
Speaker 4: bit of a travel situation here for the Cardinals as well.
Speaker 4: So Tennessee only being minus three I think is a
Speaker 4: really good spot. Hopefully they get a little bit of
Speaker 4: a pass rush with Bud Dupree. But I think this
Speaker 4: is just gonna be them outscoring the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: So it's interesting because I feel like for me, I
Speaker 1: don't know necessarily what to expect other than I will
Speaker 1: say this my second bet. I'll just throw it in here.
Speaker 1: This was not on my original board. This was a
Speaker 1: backup in case I knew that Seohn was going to
Speaker 1: take that Seahawks bet, which I should have figured was
Speaker 1: the fact that I this is a high total. It's
Speaker 1: fifty two and a half. I'm still going over. I
Speaker 1: don't love it absolutely, like I'm not. It's not something
Speaker 1: I'm going nuts. It's fifty one and a half right now,
Speaker 1: as I'm looking at the consensus lines on bet MGM
Speaker 1: and Party Casino that that is something that I would
Speaker 1: be more likely to say. It's fifty two at Fox Bet,
Speaker 1: fifty two at Points Bet, but fifty two and a
Speaker 1: half that's up my book DraftKings and total. I'm still
Speaker 1: going over with it because, correct me, if Verma like
Speaker 1: this is just going to be I think it's going
Speaker 1: to be pretty much shootout, Like I really do think,
Speaker 1: and I think in the best case scenario for Tennessee
Speaker 1: they get off to a really hot start in the
Speaker 1: game because they're home fans. By the way, this is
Speaker 1: something like we're not discussing the fact that there are
Speaker 1: going to be fans at these games. And I think
Speaker 1: right last year it was like, wow, all the scoring.
Speaker 1: That's because the opposing team would come into these stadiums
Speaker 1: and they could hear. They could do whatever they want, right,
Speaker 1: they could audible at the line. No big crowds, no
Speaker 1: big deal, it doesn't matter. It led itself to offense.
Speaker 1: For this, I think, generally speaking, might be a little
Speaker 1: bit of a lower scoring week than we usually expect,
Speaker 1: except this game, which I am just basically thinking like
Speaker 1: they are just going to go back and forth down
Speaker 1: the field. Neither defense is particularly good. Both offenses are
Speaker 1: absolutely explosive. But that's the one thing for me, Sean
Speaker 1: that gives me hesitation. If I have to choose a side,
Speaker 1: I would take the Titans minus three. But my worry
Speaker 1: justice like, are they going to be able to stop
Speaker 1: the Cardinals or do you just think like their offense
Speaker 1: essentially is just gonna be so unstopable that you're not
Speaker 1: even worried about it.
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: No, I mean I think that you know Titans do
Speaker 4: have injury concern as well. Again, that's why I put this,
Speaker 4: That's why I did a lot of a stacking in
Speaker 4: my millionmaker lineup from this game, because there's the game
Speaker 4: script could be like you said, the shootout.
Speaker 3: I'm with you on the total there as well.
Speaker 4: Going over to me ultimately the non conference aspect, the
Speaker 4: coaching advantage, and I think I'm more confident in Tannehill
Speaker 4: than Kyler Murray on the road. I know Kyler Murray's
Speaker 4: claiming he's not gonna scramble as much this year.
Speaker 3: He doesn't want to get banged Yeah.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 4: He kind of had a really good year last year
Speaker 4: in the first half and then once he got banged up,
Speaker 4: not quite as good. If he's gonna hold true to
Speaker 4: that and be a little hesitant to scramble, I think
Speaker 4: that benefits the Titans, and maybe that maybe that benefits
Speaker 4: the Cardinals long term and that he stays healthy longer.
Speaker 4: But I do think in the short term, if he's
Speaker 4: gonna stay true to his word and not scramble as much,
Speaker 4: I want the Tennessee action all day.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I look forward to him keeping his word for about
Speaker 1: half of a first quarter before right I mean, but
Speaker 1: I look again, I'm not I'm not criticizing the side either.
Speaker 1: I do think that that's the right side if I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go one way or the other.
Speaker 2: For me, it's much more about the fact that, like
Speaker 2: what was the Tyson goat, everybody's got a plan until
Speaker 2: they get punched in the mouth, right, Yeah, that's what
Speaker 2: I think.
Speaker 1: Murray's got a plan, not the scramble and whatever, and
Speaker 1: that's gonna be all well and good until they're down
Speaker 1: seventeen points right in the middle of the second quarter,
Speaker 1: and then he's like, I gotta make stuff happen and
Speaker 1: everything like that. So I think that might be a
Speaker 1: long term thing, but I get it. But I do
Speaker 1: think the over. I think this is gonna be a shootout,
Speaker 1: like I you know, value wise sean like if it
Speaker 1: hits fifty three, if it hits fifty three and a half,
Speaker 1: Like I know people hear that, and people who aren't
Speaker 1: like really sophisticated better is they're like, what do you mean,
Speaker 1: Like you're like really excited, Like you're picking the over
Speaker 1: on fifty two and a half, you're excited about that.
Speaker 2: But if it goes up like half a point or
Speaker 2: a point.
Speaker 1: You're gonna be a little off at yeah that that
Speaker 1: half a point or a point is monstrous every single
Speaker 1: time you bet. But for me, I'm with you that
Speaker 1: it's gonna be high scoring. So I'm going with my
Speaker 1: second bet again for basically the reason that you said,
Speaker 1: essentially over fifty two and a half. So we can
Speaker 1: go back to you now for the third one, and
Speaker 1: then i'll finish mine out a recap. Then we'll just
Speaker 1: hit everything that we haven't hit yet.
Speaker 3: Awesome.
Speaker 4: My third and final pick, I mean, the New England
Speaker 4: Patriots lay in three against the Dolphins.
Speaker 3: Maybe I'm gonna sound like a broken record.
Speaker 4: But again, there are serious, you know, injury COVID issues
Speaker 4: here for the Miami Dolphins. First off Will Fuller is
Speaker 4: still serving that one game suspension. Now they just lost
Speaker 4: their left tackle Austin Jackson. He's on the COVID list also.
Speaker 3: At Adam Shaheen. I'm not a huge to a backer.
Speaker 4: I have to see it from TWOA before I'm really
Speaker 4: gonna take him on the road in a division game.
Speaker 4: To last year twenty twenty, he was only six point
Speaker 4: three yards per attempt, and you know New England won
Speaker 4: this game last year at home. But really I think
Speaker 4: the New England defense is going to be revitalized. Of course,
Speaker 4: getting Donta high tower back, Patrick Chung back from the
Speaker 4: opt outs and New England coming back to the offensive
Speaker 4: line quietly one of the better offensive lines in the league.
Speaker 4: And again I think that's kind of why they went
Speaker 4: with mac Jones. They felt confident giving McCorkle the that's
Speaker 4: actually his real name is mccorkyle. He shortened it to
Speaker 4: mack new England's offensive line. I think that's why, you
Speaker 4: know Belichick feels confident starting a rookie, is that he's
Speaker 4: gonna be able to sit back there. They're gonna give
Speaker 4: him easy looks. They're gonna pound the rock with Damian
Speaker 4: Harrison and you know, even Stevenson getting involved in there.
Speaker 3: And Miami's defense who eye test.
Speaker 4: To me, I always kind of liked them last year,
Speaker 4: but then when I was doing my off season stuff
Speaker 4: and really digging deep, they really benefited from a kind
Speaker 4: of unsustainable turnover differential, and you expect that to kind
Speaker 4: of regress back to something more reasonable. And you look
Speaker 4: at their yards per game. They were twenty second in
Speaker 4: yards per game last year. Their defense at twenty one
Speaker 4: or sorry, two fifty one and a half. But really,
Speaker 4: the Miami rush defense on the road led up hundred
Speaker 4: and thirty two yards per game. I think the Patriots
Speaker 4: are gonna pound the rock and then set up some
Speaker 4: easy play action for mac Jones and they're gonna get
Speaker 4: this w So minus three, I'm all in.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So the total on this game, which is understandable, it's
Speaker 1: one of the lowest totals on the board, if not
Speaker 1: the single lowest total is forty three and a half.
Speaker 2: Okay, so this is gonna be a low score.
Speaker 1: Oh no, it's forty two at the Broncos Giants, which
Speaker 1: is more understandable frankly, but forty three and a half
Speaker 1: with our consensus line over here. So this strikes me
Speaker 1: as a as a as a close game that's gonna
Speaker 1: be decided within a field goal, which is why I
Speaker 1: don't really love it either way, do you. I mean,
Speaker 1: this is a rookie, man, a rookie was named the
Speaker 1: starter like a week ago, making his first start. I
Speaker 1: get that he's something against the team that was again,
Speaker 1: you're right, they weren't as good as they played last year.
Speaker 1: To have struggled a lot last year they're down Will Fuller.
Speaker 1: I think we're gonna see like better. I think we're
Speaker 1: gonna see a big jump here from two as he
Speaker 1: gets further away from the hip injury that's sort of
Speaker 1: limited last year, and just more comfortable with him understanding
Speaker 1: you got to throw into coverage sometimes to make it happen.
Speaker 2: So long term for the season, I am on to it.
Speaker 1: I do think that the Pats defense because I think
Speaker 1: people are like, well, Gilmore's out, blah blah. But I
Speaker 1: think you're right. I think they're underrated at this point.
Speaker 1: But I don't know, man, I don't feel that confident.
Speaker 1: I don't think either size or right. So this would
Speaker 1: be a total stay away for me. Well for me,
Speaker 1: I'm surprised you trust Mac Jones.
Speaker 4: Well, I trust Mac Jones because he's not I mean,
Speaker 4: this guy has played in some big games in Alabama.
Speaker 4: Normally a rookie making his debut in the NFL is
Speaker 4: going to be one of the biggest games he's ever played.
Speaker 3: Not for Mac Jones.
Speaker 4: And you again, you talk about the fan base getting back,
Speaker 4: it does seem like Bill Belichick is just itching to
Speaker 4: get some early ws to kind of counterbalance the narrative.
Speaker 4: That Brady was really the guy and not him. You know,
Speaker 4: he's just itching to do whatever it takes to get
Speaker 4: into the playoffs. And then the final answer or final
Speaker 4: reason why I feel comfortable with it is Bill Belichick
Speaker 4: versus a former coach now Flores, I think is the
Speaker 4: outlier as far as like belichick disciples, who I think
Speaker 4: are good coaches and have had success. But if this
Speaker 4: game was in Miami, I'd be all over the Dolphins
Speaker 4: because the Patriots usually struggle down there. But early in
Speaker 4: the season, at home, friendly crowd and the you know,
Speaker 4: the Dolphins left tackle being out, don't sleep on this
Speaker 4: Patriots pass rush. I think they could get to Tua
Speaker 4: and really make things interesting for him.
Speaker 1: All right, well, I'm gonna stay away, I'm gonna watch it.
Speaker 1: I'll be rooting for you on the sidelines as well,
Speaker 1: my entire crazy Patriots loving family. Okay, my final one,
Speaker 1: I'm going to a total here.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 1: I actually find the spreads, especially early on, Man, I
Speaker 1: think the lines aren't that net Like, They're not as
Speaker 1: sharp obviously as they're gonna be in a few weeks
Speaker 1: when the books start getting more and more data, of course,
Speaker 1: But I still find it really tough because I really
Speaker 1: feel uncertain about what we're gonna see. I am going
Speaker 1: to a total though. It's your team. Good Sarah, it's
Speaker 1: your team. I don't know how I feel about the
Speaker 1: game and the spread, but I do like the total.
Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised that the Eagles and Falcons are
Speaker 1: only at forty. I mean, that's not a low total
Speaker 1: or anything like that, but I kind of thought it
Speaker 1: would be higher. I'm going over here with the consensus
Speaker 1: line at forty eight. There is a forty eight and
Speaker 1: a half out there at fandle, but forty eight is
Speaker 1: the consensus. I think we kind of throw out what
Speaker 1: we saw last year from Hurtz just generally as the quarterback.
Speaker 1: They've been able to design the offense around him for
Speaker 1: out this entire offseason. All the rumors aside with the
Speaker 1: Shawn Watson like, they've known in my opinion, that Hurts
Speaker 1: is going to be the guy. They have better pass
Speaker 1: catches with the vamp, the Smith zach Ertz is fully healthy.
Speaker 1: Bigger has now looked good after like all those rumors
Speaker 1: in the early part. The offensive line is obviously better.
Speaker 1: Hurts can scramble. That's going to extend drives and I
Speaker 1: think allow them to put up some points, especially if
Speaker 1: they fall behind.
Speaker 2: Which I kind of expect them to a little bit.
Speaker 1: Sean like Howe was thinking of the Titans and the Cardinals,
Speaker 1: where it's like the Titans get out to a big lead.
Speaker 1: I just think like Murray might just start running wild
Speaker 1: and create some plays and put up some points. I
Speaker 1: could see the same thing here with Hurts, because again
Speaker 1: with the Falcons, I think.
Speaker 2: They're not gonna be a very good team. Their defenses
Speaker 2: are very good.
Speaker 1: But I do think that even though Arthur Smith doesn't
Speaker 1: run and gun, I think what he does do a
Speaker 1: ton is play action. Tennessee was the you know, had
Speaker 1: the most play action percentage in their offense of any
Speaker 1: team last year. He's going to bring that to Matt Ryan.
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan is That's just good for an offense anyway.
Speaker 1: It's going to make them more effective. But it's particularly
Speaker 1: good for Matt Ryan. When he was with Shanahan, obviously
Speaker 1: a lot of motion, a lot of play action, he
Speaker 1: had his best year of his career. I expect him
Speaker 1: to actually be pretty solid. And again I mentioned this earlier.
Speaker 1: Unders I think as a general matter, are the better
Speaker 1: bet in Week one, because I do think it's going
Speaker 1: to be a little crazy for these road teams to
Speaker 1: come on and be like, holy cow, fans are screaming
Speaker 1: at me, But I don't know, man, at forty eight,
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a lot of
Speaker 1: points being put up here. So I'm gonna take the over.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm I'm one hundred percent on board. I'm usually
Speaker 4: not like a massive total player, but when these Week
Speaker 4: one lines came out and we broke, we immediately broke
Speaker 4: him down and kind of gave our instant reaction. This
Speaker 4: total opening up at this price was just to me comically.
Speaker 3: Low is a guy who the team.
Speaker 4: I mean, on the Eagles offensive side of the ball,
Speaker 4: they're O line, all the starters are healthy. He's gonna
Speaker 4: have plenty of time to throw. They're gonna drop some simple,
Speaker 4: easy stuff for him. I think they're gonna be able
Speaker 4: to move the ball against Atlanta. Now flip it over
Speaker 4: to the other side. What did the Eagles struggle with? Well,
Speaker 4: they have a pretty decent defensive line, but really the
Speaker 4: back end is where there are the most questions. They
Speaker 4: have a new scheme coming in Calvin Ridley. I am
Speaker 4: high on him Fantasy even Week one. You know, Sligh
Speaker 4: is like a solid cornerback one, but he struggled. We've
Speaker 4: seen DeVante Adams, We've seen DK Metcalf have big games
Speaker 4: against him. And lastly, we really struggled last year against
Speaker 4: the tight end. I mean George Kittle had a massive
Speaker 4: game against US and Kyle Pitts.
Speaker 3: You know Rodney McLeod one of the safeties.
Speaker 4: He's coming off a pretty rough injury, didn't have much
Speaker 4: of a preseason or a training camp.
Speaker 3: He should start.
Speaker 4: They brought over Anthony Harris, but again it's new team,
Speaker 4: new defense. I could see them struggling. This to me,
Speaker 4: just again has shoot out written all over it. And
Speaker 4: I think you know dark Horse DFS play that I've
Speaker 4: just been crowbaring on every podcast is Quez Watkins at
Speaker 4: three thousand dollars. If you're looking to put together a
Speaker 4: million maker lineup in DraftKings, you could do worse than
Speaker 4: Quez Watkins. We saw him break one in the preseason
Speaker 4: with the screen pass to Joe Flacco. Hurts almost got
Speaker 4: him on a deep ball that he was opened. They
Speaker 4: were just like a half second off. I think I
Speaker 4: can I can tell you this for a guy that
Speaker 4: is priced at DraftKings at three thousand dollars.
Speaker 3: I can guarantee you.
Speaker 4: He gets like six targets, so I think he's gonna
Speaker 4: be involved in the offense, has a chance to break it.
Speaker 3: And and same with Miles Sanders.
Speaker 4: He didn't have an amazing year last year and certainly
Speaker 4: underperformed his Round one drafting and probably annoyed a lot
Speaker 4: of fantasy owners. But he he certainly has the ability to,
Speaker 4: you know, break open a big seventy five eighty yard run.
Speaker 4: So I think there's huge potential for big plays on
Speaker 4: both sides of the ball. So I'm all over the O.
Speaker 3: We're with you here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's I mean, I'm not going to touch the side.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about that in two minutes about how you
Speaker 1: feel about the side. But yeah, there's gonna be points here.
Speaker 1: I feel pretty confident that. So that is one of
Speaker 1: my favorites. So let's just very quickly recap. I'll do
Speaker 1: it again at the very end.
Speaker 2: Of the podcast.
Speaker 1: You like we both club the bet of the podcast,
Speaker 1: Sean is Seattle laying two and a half to the Colts.
Speaker 1: You also like the Titans laying three to the Cardinals
Speaker 1: and the Pats laying three to the Dolphins, right, got that?
Speaker 3: Yeap?
Speaker 2: That was what it was? Yes, good. I wanted to
Speaker 2: make sure I didn't miss it.
Speaker 4: I was just double checking that I didn't mess up something.
Speaker 1: But yes, no, I want to make sure and all favorites,
Speaker 1: all favorites for you.
Speaker 2: You're getting a little uh, a.
Speaker 3: Little square sean over here.
Speaker 4: I don't mind taking favorites, you know, kind of under
Speaker 4: under three to me is almost you know, when you're
Speaker 4: where you're taking a favorite under three in the NFL.
Speaker 4: I'm not too worried about it. I do have some
Speaker 4: some dogs. I like that we're going to rattle through
Speaker 4: here on the card.
Speaker 2: But yeah, wonderful.
Speaker 3: Small favorites early on the season. I'm on board, all right.
Speaker 1: So my three best bets are, of course, the Jets.
Speaker 1: Never go wrong lying or rooting for the Jets, trust
Speaker 1: me getting five and a half from the Panthers, the
Speaker 1: Titans and the Cardinals over fifty two and a half points,
Speaker 1: and the Eagles and the Falcons over forty eight points.
Speaker 1: So again, I will recap that once more at the
Speaker 1: very end of the podcast, so everybody gets them. But
Speaker 1: those are the official Betting Pros Podcast six best bets
Speaker 1: of the week.
Speaker 2: I love it again. You can hear more. We're gonna
Speaker 2: break down every game.
Speaker 1: We're gonna break on props on the Betting Pros YouTube
Speaker 1: channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros from eleven am
Speaker 1: Eastern to twelve pm on that channel, Meet and Matt Pelt.
Speaker 1: All right, let's run through Sean all the spreads and
Speaker 1: just let me know you have a lean on one
Speaker 1: side or is it a stay away for you? And
Speaker 1: again this is coming out this is Wednesday, so we
Speaker 1: can talk about the Thursday game. The spread on the
Speaker 1: Bucks Cowboys game is now eight. Do you like either
Speaker 1: side on that game?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean I'm I'm all in on the Bucks again.
Speaker 4: Super Bowl winner coming off the Super Bowl at home,
Speaker 4: though very good against the spread. I think it's like
Speaker 4: five and one, six and one. I got it when
Speaker 4: it opened at six. I still like it at eight.
Speaker 4: Deck is not one hundred percent healthy, and they got
Speaker 4: issues on their offensive line as well with Zach Martinel,
Speaker 4: So give me the Bucks.
Speaker 1: I mean, you talk about offensive line issues, that's an
Speaker 1: offensive line issue, right, That's their best offensive lineman being out,
Speaker 1: and I remember Mel Collins is going to play but
Speaker 1: he's not one hundred percent either, so you know that
Speaker 1: offensive line really takes a hit.
Speaker 2: I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I will take the Bucks minus eight A lean that
Speaker 1: way anyway, but I will say that I do get
Speaker 1: a little worried, like it might be like party time,
Speaker 1: you know, celebrating the Super Bowl and then the Cowboys
Speaker 1: get a backdoor cover here. But I agree with you
Speaker 1: that is where I would go. I still feel confident
Speaker 1: at eight. How about again, we talked about the over under.
Speaker 1: What about the Falcons laying three to your Eagles at home?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean certainly I liked it better when it
Speaker 4: was three and a half, which I think yesterday was
Speaker 4: three and a half.
Speaker 3: I still like it.
Speaker 2: I've got no oh wait, I've got a couple of
Speaker 2: three and a half.
Speaker 1: There's Caesars. Caesars are still three and a half. There
Speaker 1: are a couple three and a half's out there actually.
Speaker 4: So you can get those three and a half. I
Speaker 4: think you do it again. I think this Eagles team
Speaker 4: is gonna surprise some people. And again, our offensive line
Speaker 4: defensive line have a chance to be top five both
Speaker 4: in So I'm taking the points with the Eagles.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: I am staying away three and a half. You're right,
Speaker 1: I would be more intrigued by that. And again I'm
Speaker 1: looking the consensus line is three. The overwhelming majority of
Speaker 1: books are at three, but there are three and a
Speaker 1: half's out there for sure. So again that's why it's
Speaker 1: always good just to check your sports book make sure
Speaker 1: you get the best lines. I wouldn't mind the Eagles
Speaker 1: at minus at plus three and a half, but otherwise
Speaker 1: I'm really not touching it. What about the Lions at
Speaker 1: home getting seven and a half from the forty nine ers.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this is this is one of those
Speaker 4: games that everyone is gonna pick the forty nine ers
Speaker 4: in their survivor pool. And then that's why that reason
Speaker 4: alone I like the Lions. The Jimmy g is a
Speaker 4: seven and a half point road favorite to me is
Speaker 4: just too crazy.
Speaker 3: I think I think you got to take the lines
Speaker 3: in the points.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not going anywhere near this because you know,
Speaker 1: even if even if it looks like the fortnit are
Speaker 1: going to run with it, I'm worried Dan Campbell's just
Speaker 1: gonna run out there and smack them in the kneecaffs
Speaker 1: or something like that. It sounded crazy, Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: I think that you laid it out correctly, which is
Speaker 1: the value is actually on the Lions here at seven
Speaker 1: and a half, because you have Jimmy Croppolo as.
Speaker 2: A starting quarterback on the road.
Speaker 1: There's just no way I'm going to dabble in it,
Speaker 1: like I'm just staying completely away from it. But I
Speaker 1: do think that that is where the value the game
Speaker 1: everybody has been talking about for I mean weeks. At
Speaker 1: this point, the only thing everybody wants to watch this
Speaker 1: weekend is, of course, the Texans hosting the Jaguars laying
Speaker 1: three points.
Speaker 2: What are you doing with this? If anything?
Speaker 4: Well, Tyrod Taylor as a starter twenty four, twenty one
Speaker 4: and one, the Jags were a one win team. Now
Speaker 4: you have a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach going
Speaker 4: on the road as a road division favorite.
Speaker 3: I think on principle alone, you have to take the Texans.
Speaker 2: That is the correct answer.
Speaker 1: That's something that I say at Tom the Fantasy of
Speaker 1: podcasts a lot where they tease me, yes, I agree
Speaker 1: with you, it's disgusting.
Speaker 2: It's disgusting.
Speaker 1: But the value is very clearly on the Texans here.
Speaker 1: We have not seen very much from the Jaguars right
Speaker 1: now and everything. Given the situation, that suggests that they're
Speaker 1: going to be able to, you know, have a big
Speaker 1: time performance here. I don't mind the over by the way, again,
Speaker 1: another thing where I was like under, under, under, and
Speaker 1: then I'm like, oh, what about all these over is
Speaker 1: the forty four and a half points, that's pretty low.
Speaker 1: I do think both sides will be able to put
Speaker 1: up some points here. But yeah, you're right, Toron Taylor,
Speaker 1: he's fine. Brandon Cooks is going to get his They
Speaker 1: have like seventeen thousand crappy running backs.
Speaker 2: They'll be able to move the ball. So we'll see.
Speaker 1: They did just trade out Bradley Roby, but no, begaint,
Speaker 1: we're not gonna talk about that.
Speaker 3: They talked about it. The Texans have some issues that they.
Speaker 1: Have one or two issues. They will be the worst
Speaker 1: team in the league. But you know what, the Jaguars
Speaker 1: were the worst team in the league last year.
Speaker 3: That's a great example.
Speaker 4: That Jags Colts game, and I had the Jags and
Speaker 4: the Lions game and the Texans game both kind of
Speaker 4: look like similar to me, similar situations.
Speaker 1: Yeah, fun fact, by the way, that reminds me about
Speaker 1: the Colts as we like. The Sea Houxley Colts have
Speaker 1: not won an opener since twenty.
Speaker 3: Thirteen, so that I'm gonna steal that nugget, do it
Speaker 3: all right?
Speaker 1: The Chargers getting one and a half in Washington?
Speaker 3: Who do you like now?
Speaker 4: This game is I think quietly one of the better
Speaker 4: games on the board. And you could talk me into
Speaker 4: either side here pretty easily.
Speaker 3: I think early lean.
Speaker 4: Here would have to be the Washington football team just
Speaker 4: because they're at home and it's a crazy flight for
Speaker 4: a new coach.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean this should be a hell of
Speaker 3: a game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I mean I thought about taking Washington plus one here
Speaker 1: as the home dog as one of my picks.
Speaker 2: I do like it.
Speaker 1: It's one of the spreads that I like a little
Speaker 1: bit more. Agan Washington is going to surprise some people.
Speaker 1: It came out a little earlier now. Doesn't sound like
Speaker 1: Curtis Samuel necessarily is going to play. He was trending up,
Speaker 1: but sounds like a little bit. It doesn't do that
Speaker 1: much for me. I think Antonio Gibson's going to be
Speaker 1: a monster. I love Logan Thomas, Course, Terry McLaurin, and Fitzpatrick.
Speaker 1: There's always the chance that Fitzpatrick Fitzpatrick's and it goes
Speaker 1: terribly sideways.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 4: I think Fitzpatrick game one this is where you're like, yeah,
Speaker 4: the Washington football team, they're gonna win the division. And
Speaker 4: we actually had the one of the directors from win
Speaker 4: Bett and they said their biggest MVP liability was Ryan Fitzpatrick,
Speaker 4: which I had to laugh at.
Speaker 3: I don't think. I don't think Fitzpatrick lasts this long.
Speaker 4: Like there's a reason he's been in this league for
Speaker 4: how many years and he only has one winning season,
Speaker 4: starting all sixteen games. I think he eventually hits that
Speaker 4: fitzmagic wall and we'll see. Maybe Heinike can kind of
Speaker 4: carry them, but I think Game one is probably his spot.
Speaker 3: So yeah, lean in a WFTS for sure.
Speaker 1: And again we didn't even harp on the fact that
Speaker 1: Washington has one of the better defenses in the league anyway, right,
Speaker 1: And again the charge the Chargers are changing their system.
Speaker 1: You know, I know Herbert was great last year, but
Speaker 1: it was a it was a very you know, kind
Speaker 1: of rookie friendly offensive system. It's a little more complicated
Speaker 1: what they're doing right now. He could definitely struggle early.
Speaker 1: So I think there is value on Washington here, you know.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and they didn't they didn't play any of their
Speaker 4: starters in the preseason. Now you got this crazy road trip.
Speaker 4: I think they could start a little slow.
Speaker 2: Look at us, we're talking ourselves right into Washington.
Speaker 1: My eyes, new best bet replaces the Seahawks absolutely.
Speaker 2: Bill's lank six and a half at home to the Steelers.
Speaker 3: This is another one.
Speaker 4: I've kind of been going back and forth on the TJ.
Speaker 4: Watt news to me is big. You know, I was
Speaker 4: refreshing Twitter right before we got on the show.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 2: He did practice today, didn't he? I thought I saw that.
Speaker 4: It seems like he's it seems like he's gonna play.
Speaker 4: But just the fact that it's a little up in
Speaker 4: the air scares me a little bit. I am high
Speaker 4: on the Bills overall this season, but I liked I
Speaker 4: liked what I saw on a big ben, you know,
Speaker 4: slim down. I think again, you want to talk about
Speaker 4: dark horse dfs plays that are super cheap.
Speaker 3: Pat Fryarmouth, the Bills struggle with the tight end.
Speaker 4: I'm high on him this season, so I would take
Speaker 4: the I would take the Steelers in the points.
Speaker 3: I don't think they're that bad this year.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: By the way, you've mentioned DFS a couple of times.
Speaker 1: I will just I'll tease everybody should just google Sean
Speaker 1: Green and DFS, and yes you will. You would like
Speaker 1: to take his advice. That's all I'm going to say. Okay,
Speaker 1: I am with you, but I think there is value
Speaker 1: on the Steeler. I'm not going near it. I'm just
Speaker 1: not because I think the Bills could be absolutely monstrous
Speaker 1: right now. Sorry, if you can hear that, that's my
Speaker 1: garage are always open during a podcast.
Speaker 2: I will take the Bills. I think the Bills could
Speaker 2: be explosive, but I will take the Steelers if I
Speaker 2: have to choose a side. I'm really staying away from it.
Speaker 1: How about the Vikings laying three and a half to
Speaker 1: the Bengals in Cincinnati.
Speaker 4: Yeah, again, this is one where it's like way too
Speaker 4: obvious and it kind of scares you because why, in
Speaker 4: my mind, why who's taking the Bengals there? I think
Speaker 4: the Bengals are getting a lot of kind of fantasy
Speaker 4: hype because they're expected to throw the ball a ton
Speaker 4: and you have Joe Burrow paired up with Jamar Chase,
Speaker 4: Chase kind of had a down preseason. We'll see if
Speaker 4: that actually matters to me. It seems like Joe Burrow
Speaker 4: doesn't trust his knee yet. And if Joe Burrow doesn't
Speaker 4: trust his knee, I'm not gonna trust his knee. I'm
Speaker 4: gonna take Kirk Cousins here. It's not in prime time.
Speaker 4: I think they get the job done.
Speaker 1: There are a few threes out there which I obviously
Speaker 1: like better for the push potential, such as points bet
Speaker 1: and stuff like that, but still I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I will take the Vikings I talked about in fantasy
Speaker 1: the whole year. I think it's gonna be a little
Speaker 1: bit of a slow start here for Burrow as he
Speaker 1: just gets more mentally acclimated to the NFL again after
Speaker 1: the injury. I think Jamar Chase, after taking euro of
Speaker 1: from football, is gonna get off to a little bit
Speaker 1: of a slow start. So I could see the Vikings
Speaker 1: winning handly here. So I lean Vikings plus my three
Speaker 1: and a half as well. We already talked about the
Speaker 1: justs Panthers. You love that bat, you fully support it.
Speaker 1: So let's go to the Saints getting the Packers, sorry,
Speaker 1: the Packers laying four and a half to the Saints
Speaker 1: in New Orleans. It's not in New Orleans, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be in Florida. But obviously it's a home game for
Speaker 1: the Saint so Packers laying for.
Speaker 4: Yeah, man, this is this one is on my list
Speaker 4: of like really Been Heaven and Hawn As far as
Speaker 4: figuring out the best to angle again, Aaron Rodgers has
Speaker 4: struggled in Florida and that's kind of why. The reason
Speaker 4: according to reports, that's why the Saints picked it is
Speaker 4: because he hasn't played right down in Florida and early
Speaker 4: in September. If there is someone that has experienced playing
Speaker 4: in that Florida heat in September, it's a guy like
Speaker 4: Jameis Winston. But again, then then you have the Saints
Speaker 4: Dome team going outside, and then are you really going
Speaker 4: to take Jamis over Aaron Rodgers?
Speaker 3: That feels a bit crazy as well.
Speaker 4: I think this could be a My lean would be
Speaker 4: the over here on this one, But I gone to
Speaker 4: my I would just take the points.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I am probably just staying away from it, like
Speaker 1: I don't.
Speaker 2: I can easily make the case.
Speaker 1: For the Packers in this game because I think that
Speaker 1: you get out of the Superdome. That's a pretty big
Speaker 1: move like there to go, even if it's Florida, you
Speaker 1: know where he purportedly struggles. The over under, by the way,
Speaker 1: consensus is fifty points, so I'm staying away from it.
Speaker 1: But if I had to go one way, I'd probably
Speaker 1: go the other way, and I'd probably go with the favorite,
Speaker 1: which is weird for us since you love all the favorites.
Speaker 2: All right, let's get to the next game, and that
Speaker 2: is we did that one. We did that one. Sorry.
Speaker 1: How about the Broncos laying three to the Giants in
Speaker 1: New Jersey?
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, and again this one.
Speaker 4: I've been kind of keeping an eye on the injury
Speaker 4: news slash arrest news with Bradley Chubb, who you know.
Speaker 4: It seemed on Tuesday he was gonna play at him
Speaker 4: and fant and now it seems like he's closer to
Speaker 4: not playing, but Fans is still gonna play.
Speaker 2: To me, Fenton.
Speaker 4: The match that I just can't unsee or unthink about
Speaker 4: is the Broncos pass rush against the Giants. I mean,
Speaker 4: I'm not high on Daniel Jones or their offensive line.
Speaker 4: I mean, their offensive line was really bad last year.
Speaker 4: It feels like they didn't do anything to seriously address it.
Speaker 4: He turns the ball over all the time, and you
Speaker 4: have Bridgewater on the other side, who plays a really
Speaker 4: clean game.
Speaker 1: So I'll take the Broncos absolutely correct. I completely agree
Speaker 1: with you. I think the Giants are going to be
Speaker 1: in big trouble in this game. Especially Saquan is in
Speaker 1: one hundred percent. Galladay is not one hundred percent. That
Speaker 1: offensive line is terrible. And by the way, the consensus
Speaker 1: line is three. That's where it is at most books bet, MGM,
Speaker 1: and fandle it's minus two and a half.
Speaker 2: Oh, get all over, get all over that. If you're
Speaker 2: in there. Brown's visiting the Chiefs. The Chiefs are six
Speaker 2: point favorites. What do you think?
Speaker 4: Yeah, this one again kind of keeping a chalky. I
Speaker 4: know everyone's high on the Browns, think they can make
Speaker 4: a run. But Andy Reid opening day, Yes, Andy Reid,
Speaker 4: I think he's nineteen to zher last nineteen games straight
Speaker 4: up up in September, you got Patrick Mahomes not laying
Speaker 4: more than double digits, and big picture, I do think
Speaker 4: the Chiefs kind of fixed their offensive line, which was
Speaker 4: a huge issue for them.
Speaker 3: They got some work in the preseason.
Speaker 4: He played his starters. I think they're looking pretty good,
Speaker 4: and you know, the Browns defense is solid, and obviously
Speaker 4: Hian Miles, Garrett and some of the other guys they got.
Speaker 4: But I think this is a statement game for the
Speaker 4: Chiefs after that Super Bowl loss.
Speaker 2: Entirely with you, and I like the Browns this year
Speaker 2: a lot.
Speaker 1: I'm totally buying them, absolutely, But you're gonna give me
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes in this game after that Super Bowl with
Speaker 1: Andy Reid in September at under a touchdown, I'm definitely
Speaker 1: taking it. In fact, I really should have pivoted to
Speaker 1: that game right after the death.
Speaker 2: But it's fine.
Speaker 1: I'll take a bunch of over dyers, all right, Rams
Speaker 1: at home lank seven and a half to the Bears.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm taking the I'm taking the points here.
Speaker 4: I know people are worried about the Bears, their offensive line.
Speaker 4: I still think fantasy wise, I do like David Montgomery.
Speaker 4: I think he keeps them in the game enough. And again,
Speaker 4: it's you know, Stafford, new system, new head coach. Maybe
Speaker 4: there's a couple things they got to work out there.
Speaker 4: You could apply the same thing to the Bears. But
Speaker 4: it's it's Week one, Sunday night, Football National TV. I
Speaker 4: think there's gonna be a ton of Bears fans there,
Speaker 4: so I think they get up for this game enough
Speaker 4: to keep it within seven.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I'm on the other side.
Speaker 1: I think if I have to go, I look, I
Speaker 1: just I fear for Andy Dalton and what it things
Speaker 1: are gonna look like.
Speaker 3: In my head, it's justin Field's I get it.
Speaker 4: So you're right, Andy Dalton in prime time probably a
Speaker 4: good reason to fade.
Speaker 3: The number just seems a hair hut.
Speaker 2: I get it. The number.
Speaker 1: The number is correct, I think because it is something
Speaker 1: you're over a touchdowns really tough. But for me, I
Speaker 1: love Matthew Stafford. I'm very high in the Rams as
Speaker 1: most people are this year. I love that defense. I
Speaker 1: fear for Andy Dalton, so I'm willing to bite the
Speaker 1: ball a little bit and lay the points. Final game,
Speaker 1: the Raiders getting four and a half from the Ravens
Speaker 1: in Las Vegas.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is another one.
Speaker 4: It's hard to go against a Monday night home dog
Speaker 4: opening up the stadium, So I you know, I'm really
Speaker 4: going back and forth year on this one.
Speaker 3: I would my.
Speaker 4: Lean would be right now of Raiders, but I could
Speaker 4: change my mind by Monday. This one's tough because you know,
Speaker 4: the Baltimore offense has had so many issues, injuries, everything.
Speaker 4: But then you're really going to back this Raiders team
Speaker 4: which has had to you know, weird offseason as well.
Speaker 4: I got, you know, all things being equal, I think
Speaker 4: you should take a Monday night football home dog at
Speaker 4: four and a half.
Speaker 3: But I'm not a huge Gruden or Raiders fan.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm staying away, but if forced to go one way,
Speaker 1: I actually would go with the Raiders because I think
Speaker 1: that place is gonna be nuts, and I don't think
Speaker 1: that everybody else is.
Speaker 2: Ready for it.
Speaker 1: Also, frankly, I mean, what if Baltimore the Ravens going
Speaker 1: to spend a couple of days in Vegas right leading
Speaker 1: up to it at whenever they travel out there. That's
Speaker 1: my mess with you a little bit. So yeah, right,
Speaker 1: all right, So we've got a couple of things. Let's
Speaker 1: just very briefly again recapt the official plays. You've got
Speaker 1: the Seahawks lank two and a half against the Colts,
Speaker 1: the Titans length three to the Cardinals, and the Pats
Speaker 1: length three to the Dolphins. I am taking the Cardinals
Speaker 1: and the Titans over fifty two and a half the
Speaker 1: Falcons and the Eagles over forty eight and the Jets
Speaker 1: length five and a half to the Panthers. If you
Speaker 1: want to sub out one of my over unders because
Speaker 1: you're like I don't accept over unders as a pick,
Speaker 1: that's fine. My other one would be the Chiefs lank
Speaker 1: six to the Browns. I could also be convinced to
Speaker 1: take the Washington football team laying one to the Chargers.
Speaker 2: Sean, this was great. I love kicking off.
Speaker 3: I loved it.
Speaker 2: I loved it. Remind everybody where they can find all
Speaker 2: of you in your work and all.
Speaker 3: The good stuff.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, Sports Gambling Podcast. We actually just our network
Speaker 4: as GPN. We launched an app, so that's the easiest
Speaker 4: way to get all our picks podcasts.
Speaker 3: It's all for free. We're doing a contest. It's free
Speaker 3: to enter.
Speaker 4: You have a chance to win one hundred thousand dollars
Speaker 4: NFL Week one. You have to pick a bunch of
Speaker 4: things correct, so it's a it's a long shot, but
Speaker 4: again it's free. The podcast free, the picks are free,
Speaker 4: So SGPN in the app Store, Google Play Store, give
Speaker 4: us a fall on Twitter at Gambling Podcast and yeah,
Speaker 4: let it ride let's go baby.
Speaker 3: Week one.
Speaker 4: It feels like going back to school if school was
Speaker 4: being a degenerate sports gambler.
Speaker 1: It is last, especially after last year where it was
Speaker 1: just this weird kind of thing, you know.
Speaker 2: Now it's just it's all gravy. It's all wonderful, all right.
Speaker 2: I really appreciate it coming on.
Speaker 1: And you guys, by the way, you should be following Sean.
Speaker 1: You should be following the Sports Gambling Network podcast. They're hilarious,
Speaker 1: by the way. It's not only just entertaining, they give
Speaker 1: great advice. So really, I appreciate you coming on.
Speaker 3: We will have you.
Speaker 2: Back for sure.
Speaker 1: We will exchange picks beforehand so that we don't have
Speaker 1: to worry about me randomly.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna I'm gonna.
Speaker 4: Put in a parlay of our official five, so we'll
Speaker 4: see maybe I come back and yeah, we'll see how
Speaker 4: that goes.
Speaker 2: I'm in. I'm in, all right.
Speaker 1: So again, we'll be back here on Monday, giving us
Speaker 1: an early look in the lines. The meantime, enjoy your
Speaker 1: Week one football, everybody, and we will catch it next week.