WEBVTT - NBA Gambling Scandal, Third Term & House Maps 0:00:03.200 --> 0:00:07.440 This is Bloomberg Law with June Grossel from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:09.119 --> 0:00:11.520 I'm not tap of nine names, along with phone numbers 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:13.840 are some of the wealthiest and most famous people in 0:00:13.880 --> 0:00:16.119 the world. I put the numbers in my phone and 0:00:16.160 --> 0:00:19.080 composed a simple message, There'd be a game tomorrow night. 0:00:19.079 --> 0:00:21.200 At the Cobra launch, there was a ten thousand dollars 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:24.520 buy in. Two weeks later, around two am, there was 0:00:24.560 --> 0:00:26.520 a pot that was up to one point three million 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:30.320 pre flop with five players still in the game belonged 0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:32.600 to Player X. People wanted to say they played with 0:00:32.680 --> 0:00:34.600 them the same way they wanted to say they wrote 0:00:34.600 --> 0:00:35.680 on air Force one. 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:39.080 Do you understand that you were charged in count twenty 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:41.400 with operating an illegal gambling business. 0:00:41.560 --> 0:00:45.440 The indictment in the NBA gambling scandal sounds a lot 0:00:45.600 --> 0:00:50.159 like the movie Molly's Game High Stakes Poker, where celebrities 0:00:50.240 --> 0:00:55.840 called face cards draw in unsuspecting rich players called phish 0:00:56.120 --> 0:01:01.560 who dropped big money in illegal private games by organized crime. 0:01:01.920 --> 0:01:07.240 Federal prosecutors alleged that Portland Trailblazers head coach Chauncey Billups 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:11.000 and former player Damon Jones were the face cards who 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:14.759 were on the so called cheating team, luring big money 0:01:14.760 --> 0:01:19.280 players into rig poker games where a sophisticated technology like 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:23.839 hidden cameras in poker chip trays, rigged card shuffling machines, 0:01:24.040 --> 0:01:27.880 and even X ray equipment built into the tables helped 0:01:27.880 --> 0:01:31.560 them cheat the fish out of millions of dollars. Almost 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:35.200 thirty other people are charged in the poker scheme, including 0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:39.440 members of the Banano, Gambino, and Genevici crime families with 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:45.600 expected colorful nicknames like Flappy the Wrestler, black Tony, Big Bruce, 0:01:45.840 --> 0:01:50.960 and Pooky. My guest is former federal prosecutor Joshua F. Talis, 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:54.520 a partner at Palace Partners. He prosecuted the real life 0:01:54.640 --> 0:01:57.240 Molly Bloom and the others involved in that one hundred 0:01:57.320 --> 0:02:01.320 million dollar gambling ring that was fixtionalized in the movie 0:02:01.400 --> 0:02:04.960 Molly's Game. Josh, the high stakes poker games in this 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:08.200 indictment look a lot like those in Molly's Game and 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:11.240 even use the same terminology. 0:02:11.440 --> 0:02:13.919 Yeah, I mean, it's funny. When I was an associate 0:02:13.960 --> 0:02:17.000 at Walktell Lefton, I did an independent investigation for the 0:02:17.120 --> 0:02:20.080 NBA that cum it intid called the Pedowitz Report, which 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:22.960 is when a referee named Tim Donneghe was indicted in 0:02:22.960 --> 0:02:25.600 the Eastern District for being part of a scheme with 0:02:26.040 --> 0:02:29.760 LCN where the allegations were that he was throwing games 0:02:29.840 --> 0:02:32.760 or betting on games. And then you fast forward to 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:35.160 Molly's Game, which is one of the first big cases 0:02:35.200 --> 0:02:37.320 I worked on when I was a prosecutor, where they 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:40.760 are running illegal gambling businesses, including poker rooms, and you 0:02:40.760 --> 0:02:42.920 sort of mushed the two together, and then you have 0:02:43.040 --> 0:02:45.079 these new Eastern District indictments. 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:47.320 And tell us what the indictment says happened with these 0:02:47.360 --> 0:02:48.160 poker games. 0:02:48.680 --> 0:02:51.280 So there are two crimes being charged. The first one 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:56.040 is operating in illegal gambling business. So it's the business 0:02:56.080 --> 0:02:59.079 aspect of it, which is generally that what's called the how, 0:02:59.200 --> 0:03:02.280 so that people who are sponsoring the game are taking 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:05.400 a rake or percentage of the pot or the money 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:08.160 on the table. So that's where the sponsors or the 0:03:08.240 --> 0:03:12.079 people running the game are profiting, regardless of what happens 0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:14.440 with the cards. They're just taking a percentage of the money. 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:17.160 That's what makes it illegal in New York State at least. 0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:19.680 So you can play in a poker game for money 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:21.119 and that's not illegal. 0:03:21.280 --> 0:03:23.000 If the two of us ever had the pleasure of 0:03:23.000 --> 0:03:25.320 sitting down to play poker with a couple other people, 0:03:25.360 --> 0:03:27.079 that's totally okay. 0:03:27.600 --> 0:03:29.320 But in this case, they're saying that the game was 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:33.200 rigged so that the so called fish would lose. 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:33.880 Right. 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:35.600 That's like the added layer of it. It's sort of 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:38.080 like a fraud piece, which is the game wasn't even fair. 0:03:38.280 --> 0:03:41.840 The card shufflers were rigged. The tables had some camera 0:03:41.920 --> 0:03:44.200 set up that allowed them to see the cards, the 0:03:44.240 --> 0:03:47.000 cards were marked in some ways, people were wearing some 0:03:47.040 --> 0:03:49.760 sort of contact lens or glasses. It wasn't a fair 0:03:49.880 --> 0:03:53.240 game to begin with. In addition to being an illegal business. 0:03:53.160 --> 0:03:57.400 Phillips and Jones were referred to as face cards. In 0:03:57.480 --> 0:04:00.680 the indictment, it said that everyone at the table who 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:04.000 wasn't a target was in on the scam. They were 0:04:04.080 --> 0:04:08.240 charged with wire fraud and money laundering conspiracy, but were 0:04:08.240 --> 0:04:11.800 in charge with operating an illegal gambling business. 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:14.960 I mean, generally the fraud and money laundering charges are 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:18.280 more serious than the gambling charges, or at least they 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.240 expose an individual to more jail time potentially. 0:04:21.520 --> 0:04:24.440 Can you tell how strong the case is against them? 0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:26.719 It's always hard to tell when you read an indictment. 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:29.960 An indictment, it makes it sound like it's obvious. It's 0:04:30.000 --> 0:04:32.839 a great case. I mean, if true. You know, the 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:34.680 government always thinks it holds the best hand. That's why 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:36.760 they brought the case. I'm sure there's another side of 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:38.600 the story. Whether it holds up, I don't know. 0:04:38.920 --> 0:04:42.720 Chauncey Billups attorney said, to believe that Chauncey Billups did 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:44.839 with the federal government is accusing him of as to 0:04:44.880 --> 0:04:48.039 believe that he'd risk his Hall of Fame, legacy, his reputation, 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:48.880 and his freedom. 0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:51.400 Well, that's exactly the point, which is, these guys make 0:04:51.440 --> 0:04:53.120 a lot of money from their day job. Why are 0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:55.440 would they risk it all here, which, by the way, 0:04:55.760 --> 0:04:58.000 makes good sense and has so on a jury appeal. 0:04:58.400 --> 0:05:01.120 If they actually took part in the game, what kind 0:05:01.160 --> 0:05:02.640 of defenses could they raise. 0:05:03.240 --> 0:05:05.520 It's always hard to tell from the diamy exactly what's 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:08.320 going on, but I think part of it may be. Listen, 0:05:08.400 --> 0:05:10.599 just being there doesn't mean they were part of it, right. 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:12.840 They may be playing cards, they may be betting, they 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:15.280 may be doing whatever. That doesn't mean they're in on it, 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:17.400 which happens all the time, right, they may have been 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:21.040 participating in what was it otherwise the illegal game, and 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:23.680 the promoters may have been using that as a way 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:25.520 to draw people in, but that doesn't mean that they 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:26.800 were in on the whole scheme. 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:30.799 So the charge is that from April of twenty nineteen 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:34.680 to the present, the rick poker scheme caused losses to 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:38.719 the victims of seven million dollars. That doesn't seem a 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:42.280 lot over six years. And when the director of the 0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:45.960 FBI said the fraud is mind boggling. 0:05:46.000 --> 0:05:47.760 I mean, seven million dollars is still a lot. But 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:49.240 I agree with you. Given the amount of money that 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:51.800 flies around in these games, I wouldn't call it mind bottling. 0:05:52.000 --> 0:05:54.360 I mean these high stakes poker games, there can be 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:56.360 millions of dollars changing hands at a night. 0:05:56.560 --> 0:05:59.760 To establish the money laundering and wire fraud, what do 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:01.960 the prosecutors have to prove. 0:06:02.240 --> 0:06:04.400 The way to think of frauds is when someone makes 0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:08.160 a misrepresentation to someone to get them to turn over 0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:10.520 money and they lose money as a result. You have 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:13.240 to make a misstatement to someone with the intent that 0:06:13.279 --> 0:06:16.440 you're defrauding them. And then laundering money is either you 0:06:16.520 --> 0:06:20.040 are moving money that was derived from a criminal scheme, 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:22.440 or you are out of the scheme, or you're moving 0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:24.400 money in to promote the scheme. Those are like the 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:26.760 basic types of money laundering, but you have to have 0:06:26.839 --> 0:06:29.520 the fraud to prove the money laundering. Generally, like the 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:31.400 fraud is sort of a prerequisite. 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:34.719 There are more than thirty defendants here. How do you 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:38.919 try a case like this? I assume separate trials, But 0:06:39.120 --> 0:06:40.280 how is that decided? 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:44.000 You can't try thirty people at once. It's not permitted. 0:06:44.120 --> 0:06:47.440 It's also just practically impossible. What generally happens in a 0:06:47.440 --> 0:06:50.120 case like this where this many people charged is those 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:52.120 that sort of don't have much of a defense or 0:06:52.120 --> 0:06:53.840 they're not charging with the very serious client, they may 0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:57.400 just plead out and it could reduce into a smaller 0:06:57.440 --> 0:06:59.320 group of people if they choose to go to trial. 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:01.720 That's what happened in the Mally's Game case. We indicted 0:07:01.720 --> 0:07:04.560 I think thirty three people where there were three separate 0:07:04.680 --> 0:07:07.120 racketeering schemes. In the end, we'd never had a trial 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:08.799 because everyone basically pled guilty. 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:11.400 And then came the book and the movie. Do you 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:15.360 think that the FBI pursued this investigation for so long 0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:19.240 because of the alleged mafia connections. 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:21.680 I mean, when you have the mafia, when you have 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:24.120 sports betting, when you have the integrity of the game 0:07:24.160 --> 0:07:27.880 at stake, obviously that interests a lot of parties. It's 0:07:27.880 --> 0:07:30.440 not necessarily clear to me that the f I was 0:07:30.480 --> 0:07:32.880 looking at this since twenty nineteen. It may be that 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:36.520 as the investigation went on they learned about conduct that 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:39.080 proceeded when they started the investigation. So that doesn't mean 0:07:39.080 --> 0:07:40.920 that they couldn't charge it if they had started the 0:07:40.920 --> 0:07:43.680 investigation twenty twenty four and then they learn Actually all 0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:45.560 this is singing on from twenty nineteen. 0:07:45.560 --> 0:07:49.160 And tell us about the second indictment involving sports betting, 0:07:49.440 --> 0:07:52.800 where Miami Heat guard Terry Rosier was charged. 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:55.080 Sure, I mean, I think that's the one that goes 0:07:55.160 --> 0:07:57.360 the integrity of the game. I kind of view that 0:07:57.400 --> 0:08:00.880 as the more serious of the indictments. It is that 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:03.880 the NBA has a code of conduct, and one of 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:05.920 the provisions of the code of conduct is that there's 0:08:06.200 --> 0:08:09.280 confidential information or non public information, and in this case, 0:08:09.320 --> 0:08:11.360 it would be which players are injured, who's going to 0:08:11.400 --> 0:08:14.520 sit out, who may not play, and that information was 0:08:14.560 --> 0:08:17.400 being leaked and then used by people to make prop bets, 0:08:17.440 --> 0:08:19.640 and a prop bet is like a proposition bet, where 0:08:19.680 --> 0:08:22.200 you can not necessarily even bet on who's going to 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:25.040 win the game, but how a particular player will perform. 0:08:25.360 --> 0:08:28.080 And some of the bets were saying that someone would 0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:30.360 play or not player score certain number of points, and 0:08:30.400 --> 0:08:32.079 some of them were just bets on the outcome of 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:34.760 the game. But here it's a kin to insider trading. 0:08:34.760 --> 0:08:36.560 But I don't want to suggest it is insider trading 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:39.200 because it's a wire fraud case. This isn't securities fraud. 0:08:39.440 --> 0:08:41.680 But the gist is that there was non public information 0:08:41.679 --> 0:08:44.640 about NBA players that was used to bet and that 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:46.360 violated the code of conduct. 0:08:46.760 --> 0:08:46.960 Well. 0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:50.160 In hyping up the indictment, the director of the FBI 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:55.520 cash Ptail called it the insider trading saga for the NBA. 0:08:56.120 --> 0:09:00.280 One thing about Rosier, the NBA cleared him after an investigation, 0:09:00.440 --> 0:09:00.920 didn't they. 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:03.800 I think the issue is the devil's in the details. 0:09:03.880 --> 0:09:07.160 I mean my recollection of Rozier is that he may 0:09:07.200 --> 0:09:09.600 have texted one of the other members of the scheme 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:11.840 saying that he was going to leave the game early, 0:09:12.320 --> 0:09:15.200 and there was discussion about bets being placed, which doesn't 0:09:15.200 --> 0:09:17.559 necessarily mean he wasn't hurt, But what it means is 0:09:17.600 --> 0:09:20.160 that he was telling someone who wasn't supposed to know 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:22.240 that he was injured or that he wasn't going to 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:24.920 play the whole game. The NBA is very good at this, 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:28.880 at policing betting and the integrity the game. Adam Silvers 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:32.400 is amazing as the commissioner, and they take this seriously. 0:09:32.679 --> 0:09:34.920 The question is, you know, did they have access to 0:09:34.960 --> 0:09:38.000 everything that the FBI had access to. The NBA doesn't 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:39.480 have the powers of the FBI. 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:45.120 These are two separate indictments, separate schemes that involved thirty 0:09:45.120 --> 0:09:48.960 four defendants, only three connected to the NBA. Yet it 0:09:49.000 --> 0:09:53.280 was announced with such fanfare. About twenty people crowded on 0:09:53.320 --> 0:09:57.400 the stage, including the director of the FBI and New 0:09:57.480 --> 0:10:02.440 York City's police commissioner. The gations date back years, and 0:10:02.520 --> 0:10:05.840 yet the announcements were made the opening week of the 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:08.800 NBA season. This seems like a lot of hype. 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:11.920 Oh sure, that's definitely what the government's doing. They want 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:15.560 to amplify the press impact of the indictments and the 0:10:15.600 --> 0:10:21.440 extent that it confuses what the NBA employees players were doing. 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:24.960 It just makes it more pressworthy. Obviously, it matters if 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:27.480 someone is actually a playing for the NBA or working 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:29.719 as a coach at the time they do certain of 0:10:29.760 --> 0:10:32.240 the conduct. That's why it would matter in terms of 0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:35.400 leaking the information. And then to extend that these guys 0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:38.320 were doing something on their own time involving poker, it's 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:40.640 kind of irrelevant. I don't think this is the type 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:44.360 of investigation that you needed to be announced on the 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:47.000 eve of you know, the timing was a little odd 0:10:47.200 --> 0:10:49.400 when the FBI director shows up for an announcement of 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:52.320 an investigation like this. Again, criminal cases are serious, but 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:54.880 you know, this isn't like they broke the biggest insider 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:58.080 trading case ever, or this is a big terrorism case 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:00.559 where the FBI director may show up. It's a big 0:11:00.640 --> 0:11:02.440 case and that it goes to the integrity of the game, 0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:04.480 but it's kind of just a run of the no 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:06.800 gambling case in the poker world. 0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:09.600 We'll see how many defendants are left when and if 0:11:09.640 --> 0:11:13.520 this goes to trial. Thanks so much, josh that's former 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:18.920 federal prosecutor Joshua F. Talis of Palace Partners. President Donald 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:22.880 Trump has once again suggested he'd like to extend his 0:11:23.000 --> 0:11:27.440 stay at sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue for a third term. 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:30.760 I would love to do it. I have my best numbers. 0:11:30.800 --> 0:11:30.959 Ever. 0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:34.240 Trump has flirted with the idea of a third term before, 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:38.240 for example, in March, just a little over a month 0:11:38.320 --> 0:11:39.520 into his second term. 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:41.640 They do say there's a way you can do it, 0:11:41.720 --> 0:11:42.800 but I don't know about that. 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:47.080 I'm just telling you I have had more people say 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:51.520 please run again, but this time. There is also those 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:55.440 Trump twenty twenty eight red baseball caps that set on 0:11:55.559 --> 0:11:59.040 his desk during a meeting with congressional leaders this month. 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:03.160 There's the thing tank called Third Term Project. And there's 0:12:03.200 --> 0:12:07.439 even a Justice Department lawyer in six circuit oral arguments 0:12:07.760 --> 0:12:11.600 referring to a new administration quote three years in the 0:12:11.679 --> 0:12:15.480 future or seven years in the future. And of course 0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:20.559 Trump has not explicitly ruled out a third term. Joining 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:24.000 me is constitutional law expert David super, a professor at 0:12:24.080 --> 0:12:27.840 Georgetown Law. So, David, I reread the twenty second Amendment. 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:31.920 It plainly states that no one can be elected president 0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:34.720 more than twice. I mean, how plain is it? How 0:12:34.800 --> 0:12:36.000 clear is it? 0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:39.360 It could not be clearer, and it could not be plainer. 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:43.479 It's short it's sweet. It's to the point not allowing 0:12:43.960 --> 0:12:46.040 anyone to run for a third term. 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:51.120 Now, there are different kinds of scenarios out there that 0:12:51.240 --> 0:12:54.760 Trump allies have put forward. One of the arguments is 0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:58.240 that the twenty second Amendment only explicitly bars a person 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:02.400 from being elected more than two presidential terms, but doesn't 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:06.760 say anything about serving a third term. So the theory 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:11.200 is that Trump could run as vice president and then 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:15.320 have whatever lucky candidate for president it is resign and 0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:17.280 then Trump takes the White House. 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:20.880 That doesn't work either, because of the twelfth Amendment, which 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:25.439 says that any candidate for vice president must be constitutionally 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:29.640 qualified to serve as president, which mister Trump isn't. 0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:34.600 In fact, Trump himself sort of dismissed that. He said, 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:37.240 I'd be allowed to do that, but I think people 0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:42.040 wouldn't like that. It's too cute. Also, didn't Vladimir Putin 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:44.679 sort of do something like that years ago where he 0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:48.240 put a deputy in to serve in his place for 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:50.120 one term and then he took over. 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:54.679 It's disappointing that this country is taking its political lessons 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:58.800 from Russia these days, But yes, what Putin did was 0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:03.760 stepped down from being president for one term and let 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:09.880 a trusted ally of his serve as a figurehead president 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:13.880 while Putin ran things as Prime minister, then came back 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:17.720 and became president again. A few problems with that. One 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:21.560 is it's too cute. Two is we don't have prime 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:26.280 ministerships here, so there's no obvious alternate role for Trump 0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:29.520 to go into to serve it. Three, Russia's limit is 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:33.280 on consecutive terms. The twenty second Amendment is a limit 0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:36.360 on total terms. And four, why are we taking our 0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:37.960 political lessons from Russia? 0:14:38.000 --> 0:14:41.040 And just explain to get rid of the twenty second Amendment? 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:41.800 What would it take? 0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:45.280 Repealing the twenty second Amendment would take a two thirds 0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:50.920 vote from both chambers of Congress and ratification by three 0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:54.160 quarters of the states, which is thirty eight states. So 0:14:54.320 --> 0:15:00.560 you would need ratification from states like Connecticut and Massachusetts. Somehow, 0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:02.400 I don't think those states are going to be working 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:04.840 very hard to get mister Trump a third term. 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:09.720 Yeah, even how Speaker Mike Johnson dismissed repealing the twenty 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:10.560 second Amendment. 0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:13.160 I don't see a way to amend the constitution because 0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:14.760 it takes about ten years to do that. 0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:18.680 Speaking about the Speaker of the House. Yet another theory 0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:21.680 is that Trump could become the Speaker of the House, 0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:25.440 which apparently posits that it's easy to be elected Speaker 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:28.200 of the House, and then if both the president and 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:32.760 vice president, who would have to be Trump Ally's, resign 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:34.200 he could take over. 0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:34.920 Yeah. 0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:37.240 I keep sending in my resume to be Speaker of 0:15:37.240 --> 0:15:39.720 the House and nothing ever happens. I'm not sure what 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:44.880 the problem is in eery that could be said to 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:49.240 be valid. The Speaker of the House is elected, and 0:15:49.880 --> 0:15:53.200 if the purpose of electing mister Trumps speaker is to 0:15:53.240 --> 0:15:56.240 make him president, I think there's an argument that that 0:15:56.320 --> 0:16:01.080 would also violate the twenty second Amendment of the Constitution, 0:16:01.160 --> 0:16:04.280 But it certainly puts a thumb in the eye of 0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:09.120 popular intent. We had had a four term president, President Roosevelt. 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:13.640 The country across all political lines concluded that that was 0:16:13.680 --> 0:16:16.840 too much power for any individual to have, that it 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:21.640 resembled authoritarian countries too much, and we decided we didn't 0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:25.040 want to do that anymore. And this is yet again 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:31.240 mister Trump and his allies disregarding the people's choice through 0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:32.080 their constitution. 0:16:32.640 --> 0:16:35.360 Have you heard any other theories of how he could 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:37.080 become president for a third. 0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:39.800 Term and then the other one. I guess it's very straightforward. 0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:42.800 Just do it and see if anyone stops you. And 0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:49.040 this Supreme Court has been willing to avoid a number 0:16:49.280 --> 0:16:57.640 of constitutional violations and most obviously declining to consider or 0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:02.280 allow anyone else to consider whether mister Trump was disqualified 0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:06.720 under the insurrection clause of the fourteenth Amendment. He may 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:09.600 just take the position that he can run, he can 0:17:09.680 --> 0:17:12.240 do it, and he doesn't think anyone will stop him. 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:15.760 Is this speculation hopeful in a way because Trump is 0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:20.280 still talking about legal ways to stay in office and 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:23.160 not suggesting that he would just refuse to leave. 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:28.280 Well, there has been talk in the past that he 0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:33.080 might do something like what you're suggesting. He made some 0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:38.480 comments about that in twenty twenty, which I hope were 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:41.800 not taken very seriously. Certainly didn't deserve to be taken 0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:46.320 very seriously. But some of his supporters have suggested that 0:17:46.440 --> 0:17:49.199 he could somehow declare some kind of a state of 0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:54.840 emergency someone called it a sovereignty crisis and suspend elections 0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:59.120 on that basis. There's no authority whatsoever in the constitution 0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:01.640 for that. If he were to do that, he would 0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:04.480 effectively be repudiating the Constitution. 0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:07.680 And you think that the Supreme Court might not even 0:18:07.760 --> 0:18:11.760 step in if he decides to run for a third term. 0:18:12.080 --> 0:18:15.359 No, I think they would. I think this Court is 0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:20.160 hoping against hope that he won't force their hand by 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:25.560 doing something completely delegitimizing. But I don't believe that there 0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:29.520 are five justices who have so totally lost faith in 0:18:29.560 --> 0:18:31.159 the country that they would put up with that. 0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:34.600 I mean, it could be he's trolling the Democrats, he's 0:18:34.920 --> 0:18:38.040 entertaining his base, or he doesn't want to look like 0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:38.760 a lame duck. 0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:42.600 Yes, I think so. Presidents have often had a lot 0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:47.600 of trouble in their second terms in office. President Reagan 0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:52.560 was unstoppable in his first term and stumbled quite badly 0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:57.080 in his second. President Bush was very strong in his 0:18:57.160 --> 0:19:01.560 first and got the Great Recession and Hurricane Katrina in 0:19:01.640 --> 0:19:05.120 the second. President Obama lost all kinds of esteem by 0:19:05.160 --> 0:19:08.080 his second term. And I think President Trump doesn't want 0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:09.680 to follow that example. 0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:13.520 And was it President Reagan who suggested getting rid of 0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:15.680 the twenty second Amendment. 0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:19.639 He did, I'm not sure how seriously. A number of 0:19:19.720 --> 0:19:23.439 presidents get fond of the job and start thinking that 0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:26.560 the twenty second Amendment is a bad idea, but I 0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:29.760 don't think anyone took him very seriously or move very 0:19:29.800 --> 0:19:33.280 far with it, in part because President Reagan was already 0:19:33.440 --> 0:19:37.560 quite a fanst age. Of course, President Trump is much older. 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:40.960 And Trump would be the oldest president in history by 0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:44.560 the time he leaves office. David. In the last nine months, 0:19:44.640 --> 0:19:50.840 Trump has already done so much to expand his presidential authority, 0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:55.199 and he's used the specter of national emergencies over and 0:19:55.280 --> 0:20:00.560 over again, for example, to impose tariffs, to send troops 0:20:00.560 --> 0:20:06.000 into democratic led cities, to crack down on illegal immigration, 0:20:06.520 --> 0:20:10.439 and on and on. He declared eight national emergencies in 0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:15.240 his first hundred days. Has any other president during peacetime 0:20:16.000 --> 0:20:17.240 exercised such. 0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:21.960 Power now, there's nothing remotely close to this. Richard Dixon 0:20:22.119 --> 0:20:25.680 was accused, with some justification of trying to build an 0:20:25.680 --> 0:20:29.879 imperial presidency. But I can't think of anything that mister 0:20:29.960 --> 0:20:33.120 Nixon tried to do that mister Trump hasn't done much 0:20:33.160 --> 0:20:35.800 more of. And I can think of many things that 0:20:35.840 --> 0:20:38.879 mister Trump has done that mister Nixon never dreamed of doing. 0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:44.040 President Lincoln used a great many powers during the Civil War, 0:20:44.160 --> 0:20:48.399 some of which may have exceeded his constitutional authority, not 0:20:49.160 --> 0:20:51.480 on the level of what we're seeing here. 0:20:52.040 --> 0:20:55.080 Of the Supreme Court cases coming up that are going 0:20:55.160 --> 0:20:59.600 to test presidential authority, is the Tariff's case the most 0:20:59.640 --> 0:21:03.440 signif again, or is there another one that's more significant. 0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:09.000 The CAF's case is extremely significant because the Supreme Court 0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:16.080 is filled with self defined textualists, and it's almost impossible 0:21:16.680 --> 0:21:20.800 to find anything like the powers the President is claiming 0:21:21.320 --> 0:21:24.080 in the text of the statute he is citing. So 0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:28.560 the Court is going to have to either abandon any 0:21:28.600 --> 0:21:35.200 pretense of textualism or limit the president's authority very dramatically. 0:21:35.240 --> 0:21:35.640 There. 0:21:35.880 --> 0:21:38.960 The other case that I'm watching very closely is the 0:21:38.960 --> 0:21:42.480 case involving doctor Cook in the Federal Reserve, because the 0:21:42.520 --> 0:21:47.120 Supreme Court basically told President Trump, you can fire anyone 0:21:47.200 --> 0:21:50.760 except a Federal Reserve governor, and he turned around and 0:21:50.800 --> 0:21:54.560