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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BET

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Speaker 1: three six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today. I'm

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Speaker 1: joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,

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Speaker 1: my BFF professional better, Simon Hunter Elo Simon, Hello.

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Speaker 2: Chad, did you watch that uh Lucas homecoming last night?

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Speaker 1: That I watched the Lucas homecoming last night?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Doncic oh, oh Luca Lucas homecoming. Yeah, I watched the

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Speaker 1: whole thing. I watched the whole game. My kid and

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Speaker 1: I were riveted. It was awesome. He was on fire.

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Speaker 1: The tears were flowing in the beginning.

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Speaker 2: That was hoppy to me. Him crying at the beginning.

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Speaker 2: This man is crying about the Dallas Mavericks. How did

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Speaker 2: they let him go? You had a player that cared

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Speaker 2: about playing in Dallas.

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Speaker 1: He had a guy. They put up a graphic which

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Speaker 1: I think I must have forgotten that Luca, at twenty

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Speaker 1: eight point six points per game, has the third highest

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Speaker 1: scoring average in NBA history, after Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain.

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Speaker 1: How the fuck do you let that? It's like still astonishing,

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Speaker 1: It's so astonishing that it's not even like that. Michael

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Speaker 1: Malone getting fired with three games left after two years

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Speaker 1: after winning a title, and he's got his team like

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Speaker 1: in fourth place in the Western Conference with the best

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Speaker 1: player in the world. That's like an old conversation because

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Speaker 1: Luca's is so so big. Last night was great. It

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Speaker 1: was a great game. He was on fire. I love

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Speaker 1: the way JJ Reddick handled at the end. They went

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Speaker 1: into a timeout after he scored one more basket to

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Speaker 1: basically seal the game. Came out of it. He filed

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Speaker 1: the guy. They brought him off. The fans were sharing

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Speaker 1: it was just such come up and so great, so

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Speaker 1: many fire and Nico chants. It was awesome.

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Speaker 2: And I'm on the other side of it, people like

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Speaker 2: were so upset and remember just during the SUPERWL week

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Speaker 2: everyone was shocked by it. I am another way where

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Speaker 2: it's like, this is why I kind of love the NBA,

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Speaker 2: because it's like we all know it's kind of rigged,

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Speaker 2: and what world does the best player. It'd be like,

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Speaker 2: you know, Joe bro being traded to the Bears, like

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Speaker 2: doesn't make any sense, just sending the guy from Cincinnati

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Speaker 2: to Chicago. Same thing here. It's like of course he

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Speaker 2: went to the Lakers. It's like of all the teams

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Speaker 2: that he quietly went to and had to be the Lakers.

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Speaker 2: So to me, I've loved it. It feels like it

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Speaker 2: brought some life into the NBA this season, where not

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Speaker 2: that it was a boring season any measures, but it

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Speaker 2: was like these teams people didn't care about Oklahoma City

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Speaker 2: in Cleveland. It's like, Okay, at least we have the Lakers.

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Speaker 2: Like the fact that this brought a whole spark of

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Speaker 2: the league. I've loved it. So yeah, last night it's

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Speaker 2: it's the best night too, is a better because it's

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Speaker 2: like I did the Chalky bet bet on Luca Points,

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Speaker 2: bet on them to win the game, and yeah, he

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Speaker 2: showed up and just absolutely dominated. So yeah, that was

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Speaker 2: That was a really fun game.

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Speaker 1: I love that for you. I love that the Master

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Speaker 1: tease off today. In fact, it already has. Baseball is back,

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Speaker 1: the Draft is looming. We had great NBA action last

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Speaker 1: night with the MAVs and the Lakers. The NBA playoff

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Speaker 1: are right around the corner. Joining us today to discuss

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Speaker 1: all things sports and sports betting. A true Philly scumbag

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Speaker 1: like the kind of better that We absolutely love our

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Speaker 1: former colleague now working at the Ringer from the fighting

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Speaker 1: city of Philadelphia. He came to our live share in

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Speaker 1: Philly mainly because I made him Anthony Debundo.

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Speaker 3: Good to be here.

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Speaker 4: And I'll be honest, when you texted me to scout

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Speaker 4: some locations, I was incredibly honored. I was like, of

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Speaker 4: all the people that Chad knows in Philly, he's texting

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Speaker 4: me to be like, hey, you know any bars that

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Speaker 4: we could do the event, and the bar that you

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Speaker 4: guys picked was on my list.

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Speaker 3: So that was very honored and then quite a story.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if you've talked to Evan Abrams about

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Speaker 4: that night, but the adventure of getting him to the

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Speaker 4: Amtrak train at thirtieth Street was one I'll never forget.

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Speaker 1: Well, Number one, I texted you because you're our audience,

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Speaker 1: like sweet guy, probably bets too much love sports representative

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Speaker 1: of the Philly scumbag ethos. Also, you were raised in

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Speaker 1: a bar, so I figure like, if anybody is going

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Speaker 1: to know where like a good time could be had

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Speaker 1: for people like him, it would be you. I haven't

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Speaker 1: heard the Evan Abrams story. I don't really care. As

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Speaker 1: a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five and New Bet three sixty five. Customers get

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you

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Speaker 1: bet five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites deposit

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Speaker 1: ten dollars. Place at bet for five dollars to get

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Speaker 1: a n and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus

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Speaker 1: bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,

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Speaker 1: and more, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and

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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Oh like,

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Speaker 1: all right now, I'm getting dreamed here for not wanting

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Speaker 1: to know about Evan Abram, So go ahead, tell us

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Speaker 1: the Evan Abram story. Please Anthony share.

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Speaker 4: So if you remember like that Thursday night game, it

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Speaker 4: was Niners Rams. It was one of the worst Thursday

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Speaker 4: night games maybe played all year, which was unfortunate. But

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Speaker 4: Evan had a train that he had to make that

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Speaker 4: was getting back to New York and it was either

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Speaker 4: make that train or wait like two hours and beyond,

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Speaker 4: like the Midnight Express that you really don't ever want

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Speaker 4: to be on on the Amtrak Northeast Regional.

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Speaker 3: And so he's like, I got fifteen minutes.

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Speaker 4: Do you think we can make it from you know,

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Speaker 4: Wicked Wolf Downtown Center City, Philadelphia all the way out

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Speaker 4: to thirtieth Street. I'm like, yeah, we'll make it. So

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Speaker 4: you're driving him or I'm driving. Yes, I'm driving. So

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Speaker 4: I am trying to hit or hit, you know, get

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Speaker 4: through these lights. And we hit maybe every light possible

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Speaker 4: in the ten minutes. And you know, we've all done

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Speaker 4: this before, like the will you make it? Won't they

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Speaker 4: make it? So we pull up to the corner that's

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Speaker 4: opposite thirtieth Street and the train is taking off in

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Speaker 4: two minutes. I'm like, dude, you're never gonna make it

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Speaker 4: if we sit at this red light. So he just

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Speaker 4: jets out of the car. He's sprinting across the street.

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Speaker 4: Backpack on his pants are falling down. I'm watching him

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Speaker 4: like trying to pull up his pants as he's running

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Speaker 4: across the street. People are honking at him because he's

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Speaker 4: basically you know, the light is green and he's like

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Speaker 4: just running through traffic. Here there's a scene from a movie.

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Speaker 4: So he runs into the platform. I have no idea.

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Speaker 4: Now did he make the train? Did he not make

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Speaker 4: the train? And I'm driving home waiting for the text

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Speaker 4: to pop up from Evan. He said, you won't believe this,

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Speaker 4: and I couldn't believe it. But I got to the platform,

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Speaker 4: the trade started to close and started rolling away, So

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Speaker 4: I jumped onto the sidecar until the conductor saw me

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Speaker 4: and then eventually opened the door. So he made this

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Speaker 4: train by like five seconds. Technically didn't even make the train.

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Speaker 1: And I just pumped jumped onto this like was the

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Speaker 1: door closed? Was he like Tom Cruise and mission impossible?

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Speaker 1: Holding onto the side of the train while it was

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Speaker 1: leaving the station.

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Speaker 3: That's how it reads to me. I don't even know.

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Speaker 1: I feel like, wouldn't they emergency stopped the train right

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Speaker 1: in their tracks? It would be a delay and Evan

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Speaker 1: would probably get arrested. Like you can't jump on the

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Speaker 1: train and just be on it as it slowly, holding

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Speaker 1: on by your fingertips to the door.

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Speaker 2: Yeah he did. He did mention that he got screamed

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Speaker 2: at Philadelphia style for doing it, but as a man

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Speaker 2: of New York born and raised, that it made no

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Speaker 2: difference to Evan. It was a past fail test. The

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Speaker 2: guy opened the door and had thus lost, so he

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Speaker 2: happily took a seat. But yeah, it was.

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Speaker 3: It was a Tom Cruise asked moment for our own Evan.

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Speaker 1: Abrams, and this is the one time he doesn't join

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Speaker 1: the show. Unbelievable, seriously unreal.

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Speaker 3: So a lot of.

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Speaker 4: Respect was gained for Evan that night. For me, I

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Speaker 4: didn't know that he had that in him. Sprinting across

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Speaker 4: the street through traffic, running down the platform, jumping onto

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Speaker 4: a slowly moving train to save an hour and a

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Speaker 4: half of sitting at thirtieth Street in a dark Thursday

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Speaker 4: night and boring rain.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Evan's got a lot of dog in him, a

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Speaker 1: lot like hardcore New York City raised, grew up betting sports.

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Speaker 1: God knows what else. I don't think like a slow

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Speaker 1: rolling train out of Philly is gonna scare him.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I was gonna say, we have one producer in

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Speaker 2: Evan that can make that run that jump, and our

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Speaker 2: other producer, Gifford simply falls down the subway stairs and

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Speaker 2: breaks his hip. Just two totally different men in this world.

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Speaker 3: Oh man, dude, that story have been told on this

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Speaker 3: show before?

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Speaker 1: What's that?

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Speaker 3: Has that story been told on this show before?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 1: I was gonna tell it, Go ahead and tell it.

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Speaker 4: So what was it last? It was wild Card weekend.

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Speaker 1: Four, twenty twenty three, I.

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Speaker 4: Think, No, No, it was it was last year. It

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Speaker 4: was it was the Yeah, it was Wilder our weekend

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Speaker 4: last year. And he had left to go back to

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Speaker 4: Hoboken on the Path Train, and all of a sudden,

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Speaker 4: Christina Ventura, who used to work at Action, she came

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Speaker 4: in and was like, is anybody sober at this party?

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Speaker 3: And I'm like, yeah, I raised my hand. She's like,

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Speaker 3: gif Herd needs help.

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Speaker 4: So here we are, Christina and I go into try

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Speaker 4: to find which entrance of the Path Train at twenty

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Speaker 4: third and sixth.

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Speaker 3: He's on a street, right. It was pouring rain on

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Speaker 3: flooding the stage by the way.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and we find him and he's just like sitting

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Speaker 4: there on the steps, like just wincing in pain. And

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Speaker 4: we eventually you know, Christina stayed with him and we

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Speaker 4: got his stuff, and you know today took care of him.

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Speaker 3: I think he was in surgery like two days later.

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Speaker 1: But he broke his hip.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he done it before.

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Speaker 1: I believe he was turning thirty. He broke his hip

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Speaker 1: for the second time. It was the other hip. So

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Speaker 1: now we've got one producer who is so bold he

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Speaker 1: will jump on a moving train rather than spend another

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Speaker 1: two freaking hours in Philadelphia, and one producer who is

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Speaker 1: so fragile he's already got more hip injuries than my

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Speaker 1: eighty five year old mother in law.

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Speaker 3: So the Dreams crew, it probably goes really well on

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Speaker 3: a Hinge prompt.

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Speaker 1: That's what I can see why Dbundo ran out of

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Speaker 1: here as fast as he possibly could. Once Bill called.

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Speaker 1: He was like, I cannot work with these people anymore. Yeah, anyways,

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Speaker 1: baseball season started, Simon, do you want to commiserate with

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Speaker 1: your fellow Philly fanatic for a second.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's jump into it. Brother. It's you know, we're

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Speaker 2: both huge Phillies guys. You know, Zerrilla came on here,

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Speaker 2: like you said, he was not, you know, giving out

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Speaker 2: the Phillies over, which was a to me, what we

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Speaker 2: know about the Phillies this year, Like, we're off to

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Speaker 2: a great start. What's gonna carry us the bundo? Is

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Speaker 2: it our pitching? Is it our bats? Like, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I'm sure you're already the same spot they need, you know,

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Speaker 2: they need to change the lineup already because we have

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Speaker 2: a couple of dead bats in the middle of the lineup. Like,

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Speaker 2: what's your view on the Phillies for this upcoming season?

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Speaker 2: You think they're gonna keep staying hopping the second best

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Speaker 2: team in baseball? Or do you think they're gonna fall off? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I think it's funny how the Phillies have changed.

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Speaker 4: So they used to be back in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 4: when they first made the run and burst onto the scene,

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Speaker 4: it was like, oh, they're your lovable Beer League softball team.

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Speaker 4: They hit a bunch of homers and you know, they

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Speaker 4: don't really play defense, and their pitching is kind of iffy.

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Speaker 4: But really, like, the reason the Phillies are good in

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty five is their rotation. And I think when

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Speaker 4: you look at this rotation, this group of four and

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Speaker 4: Ranger Suarez is coming back eventually five pitchers, they're the

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Speaker 4: best and most reliable rotation in baseball. And you know,

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Speaker 4: for all the talk about the Dodgers preseason and this

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Speaker 4: incredible rotation of names, it only took fourteen games for

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Speaker 4: them to start too. Dude who most people have never

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Speaker 4: heard of because of injuries and certain guys missing time.

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Speaker 4: So the Phillies with Wheeler and Nola and Chris Sanchez

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Speaker 4: breakout and Lozardo him having a couple of great starts

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Speaker 4: here and looking really good. They're in every game like

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Speaker 4: it's very hard to beat them in a kind of

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Speaker 4: a laugher because they're just They're pitching is so good

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Speaker 4: and so reliable, and you know, there's still a lot

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Speaker 4: of star power in this lineup. I know they're getting older,

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Speaker 4: but they're not old. They're older, but they're not old.

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Speaker 1: Well, define like their window, what is older? Like when

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Speaker 1: do they get old?

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Speaker 3: That's the big question I've said.

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Speaker 4: So Zach Wheeler signed a three year extension, so he's

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Speaker 4: going to be pitching for the next three years.

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Speaker 3: I think that is their window.

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Speaker 4: So long as Wheeler is as dominant as he's been,

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Speaker 4: and he's been you could argue the best pitcher over

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Speaker 4: the last five years cumulative in baseball.

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Speaker 3: As long as he's throwing.

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Speaker 4: And as long as Harper and Turner and Schwerber are

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Speaker 4: producing at the heart of this lineup, I think they're

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Speaker 4: going to be in that mix. And it's not that

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Speaker 4: they don't have prospects, because they've got a guy Andrew

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Speaker 4: Painter who's coming up June July, and he's gonna be,

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Speaker 4: you know, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.

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Speaker 4: He could be kind of the gap, the bridging of

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Speaker 4: the gap. He could be in the bullpen come playoff time.

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Speaker 4: There are certainly holes with the Phillies. They are the

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Speaker 4: third oldest lineup in baseball, but a lot of these

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Speaker 4: guys are like thirty one to thirty three. It's not

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Speaker 4: like they're relying on a bunch of thirty six year

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Speaker 4: olds who are on their last legs.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, say, I agree with that. That's the fear is

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Speaker 2: that it's it's not that they're super old, they're just

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Speaker 2: at the age where these guys get those little injuries.

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Speaker 2: That's that's the fear, right Like we've already had. You know,

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Speaker 2: even last year, Bryce Harper messed a decent amount of time.

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Speaker 2: He came back and obviously he was trying to get

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Speaker 2: into it, but he just wasn't not the same player

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Speaker 2: as he was before the injury. And even this season,

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Speaker 2: like you just talked about, the Dodgers have already had

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Speaker 2: a couple of guys get hurt, and it's like, that's

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Speaker 2: my fear of this Phillies teams. We're going to be

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Speaker 2: cruising and then come July, might have one or two

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Speaker 2: of these starters down have a couple of bats miss

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Speaker 2: from the lineup, and it feels like they're done at

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Speaker 2: that point. So yeah, to me, what you just talked about,

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Speaker 2: the Phillies needed to get off to a hot start.

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Speaker 2: Then the Cubs that, like, you know, these couple of

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Speaker 2: teams that needed a good start have had the good start.

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Speaker 2: So I think feel like you're in the same boat

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Speaker 2: as me Athany. I'm pretty happy. Is this the way

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Speaker 2: this season has been gun. As a Phillies fan, it

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Speaker 2: feels like we are on the top three, top four

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Speaker 2: teams in baseball right now.

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Speaker 3: And Atlanta's too and nine.

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Speaker 4: I mean that's you know, that's rare, right, So seeing

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Speaker 4: them all the way down there and you know they'll

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Speaker 4: have a rubber match with Atlanta, But if they're able

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Speaker 4: to win tonight Thursday, and they're able to, you know,

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Speaker 4: win two out of three against the Dodgers and the

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Speaker 4: Braves to start the season. I mean that's a really

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Speaker 4: encouraging sign because you know, the na L is really

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Speaker 4: really deep. You look at the Padres, the Giants kind

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Speaker 4: of surprising early this season, but especially the Mets and

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Speaker 4: the Braves and the Dodgers, Like there's so many teams.

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Speaker 4: It's a much more top heavy league than the even

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Speaker 4: the American League is where everybody's kind of jumbled in

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Speaker 4: the middle there. So it's going to be really competitive

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Speaker 4: for those top spots.

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Speaker 1: When you look at a two and nine Brave seam,

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Speaker 1: this is a question for both of you. Do you

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Speaker 1: see futures opportunity? This team is too good not to

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Speaker 1: turn it around. Strange start, they've been historically bad. Like

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Speaker 1: runners in scoring position, it's wild even you know, Wednesday

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Speaker 1: night against Philly they had i think nine runners left

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Speaker 1: in the first five innings. Those are the kind of

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Speaker 1: things you just kind of expect.

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Speaker 3: To even out.

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Speaker 4: They're pitching depth, I think is a real question, like

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Speaker 4: is Sale going to be as good as he was

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Speaker 4: last year?

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Speaker 3: Do they have enough starters? There's a lot more holes.

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Speaker 4: Than I think people realize about Atlanta, but I think certainly,

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Speaker 4: like they're down to like minus one fifty to make

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Speaker 4: the playoffs, that might be a good bi low opportunity.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and they're also I mean, the thing that's working

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Speaker 2: against them, I feel like in the futures market is

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Speaker 2: the fact that they are in the division with the

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Speaker 2: Mets and the Phillies. Like the Mets look like a

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Speaker 2: pretty well put together team at this point. So, like

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Speaker 2: Anthony just said, the value is going to be on Atlanta,

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Speaker 2: Like there is really no difference between them and the

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Speaker 2: Phillies and then Mets. They're all kind of the same team.

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Speaker 2: They're all well built, they have a ton of talent.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know, Zerrilla gave out Spencer the starting

337
00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:02,680
Speaker 2: pitcher for the Braves, like a crazy number for Cy Young,

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Speaker 2: He's already in the top ten right now for futures market.

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Speaker 2: So it's like, you know, Atlanta's got the arms, they

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Speaker 2: got the bats. It's like what Anthony just said, They've

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Speaker 2: been crazy unlucky and they had a tough start, right

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Speaker 2: They just played the Dodgers and the Phillies like two

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Speaker 2: of the best teams in baseball.

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Speaker 3: And the Padres too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I like where your head's at. Chat. That's

346
00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,760
Speaker 2: probably a smart time to maybe jump in. Or you

347
00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:24,520
Speaker 2: can wait until they lose the series against the Phillies

348
00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:26,880
Speaker 2: and you get even better odds.

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Speaker 1: Like where your head's at. See I think about opportunity.

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Speaker 1: I see the whole goddamn board. Simon, Hey, speaking of board,

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00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,320
Speaker 1: how do you like this transition? The NFL Draft is

352
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:43,760
Speaker 1: coming up? Anthony loves the Indianapolis Colts. I don't know.

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Speaker 3: Why sacrilegists in Philly. To be honest, what's that.

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Speaker 4: It's pretty sacrilegious of me as a Philly guy, but

355
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Speaker 4: it's I'm not.

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Speaker 2: Gonna let you. The first time he told me, I like,

357
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,000
Speaker 2: did side at him. I'm like, what the fuck, dude,

358
00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:54,880
Speaker 2: you're a Philly guy?

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Speaker 4: He thought Simon the first time I met him, He's like, dude,

360
00:16:57,280 --> 00:16:59,400
Speaker 4: you're always praising Dak on Twitter, Like, are you a

361
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,280
Speaker 4: Cowboys fan? I'm like, no, I'm just a Colts fan

362
00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:03,880
Speaker 4: who likes Stack thinks he's good.

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Speaker 1: But it is weird because you are such a Philly

364
00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:15,119
Speaker 1: dude that it's weird to me you would escape the

365
00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:20,840
Speaker 1: clutches of the Eagles and then not just that root

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Speaker 1: for the most random, nondescript, no personality team. And it's

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Speaker 1: not like, I mean, you're still a fucking baby. So

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00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,880
Speaker 1: it's not like Peyton Manning was in his prime as

369
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Speaker 1: you were going through your teenage years of fandom.

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Speaker 4: Andrew Luck was in this prime when I was going

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Speaker 4: through my teenage years of fandom.

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Speaker 1: No.

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Speaker 4: I think the origin story is weird but pretty simple.

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Speaker 3: And it's that.

375
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Speaker 4: So my dad owned a sports bar in South Philly

376
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Speaker 4: for many, many years, so the Eagles were always on,

377
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Speaker 4: and I was always around the Eagles, but he was

378
00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:57,719
Speaker 4: never that big of an Eagles fan. And my other

379
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Speaker 4: biggest sports influence is my older cousin who's like a

380
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Speaker 4: brother to me and grew up around the corner and

381
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Speaker 4: he was a Colts fan from his family. So we

382
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Speaker 4: just watched Colts games and I kind of copycatted him

383
00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:12,080
Speaker 4: when I was, you know, six five years old. And

384
00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,760
Speaker 4: did it help that the Colts were good? Sure, you know,

385
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:16,560
Speaker 4: Peyton Manning was pretty good in two thousand and four,

386
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Speaker 4: but you know, it kind of just stuck. And then

387
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:21,800
Speaker 4: when you know, they got rid of Peyton, I became

388
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Speaker 4: a Colts fan who also rooted for Peyton, and then

389
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Speaker 4: I kind of just stuck with it, and honestly, I

390
00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:28,359
Speaker 4: joked about this the last few months because of the

391
00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:29,440
Speaker 4: Eagles wining the Super Bowl.

392
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Speaker 3: Probably a bad choice. I feel like I made a

393
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:33,080
Speaker 3: bad organizational decision there.

394
00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:35,120
Speaker 4: I should have been an Eagles fan and just rode

395
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,359
Speaker 4: with the crowd because they've won, you know, two super

396
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,119
Speaker 4: Bowls in the last eight years, and I was the

397
00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 4: guy that was like, eh, yeah, you know, happy for

398
00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,280
Speaker 4: my friends, happy for my family who are Eagles fans,

399
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,280
Speaker 4: but don't don't get moved by it.

400
00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:47,760
Speaker 3: So it's been a weird place.

401
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:54,399
Speaker 1: Now we've got interesting quarterback selections at the top of

402
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:58,960
Speaker 1: the draft, potentially cam Ward Schador Sanders. A few years

403
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:02,520
Speaker 1: ago Muller's scenario, there were a lot of quarterback options.

404
00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:07,119
Speaker 1: The Colts won with Anthony Richardson. Simon loves Anthony Richardson

405
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,440
Speaker 1: at the time for his upside. We had a long

406
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:14,160
Speaker 1: conversation with Kevin Clark about the value of drafting for upside.

407
00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:18,399
Speaker 1: But then how you have to sort of nurture that

408
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:22,919
Speaker 1: talent and you can't just sort of walk away from it.

409
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,800
Speaker 1: You have to know what you're getting into. You look

410
00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:28,439
Speaker 1: at Anthony Richardson, to me, he's such a wild card

411
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 1: as a better and as for me as a better,

412
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:37,359
Speaker 1: but also he's a wild card as a talent. Do

413
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,400
Speaker 1: you look at it as someone who's watching this team

414
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:44,680
Speaker 1: very closely but also betting regularly and see Anthony Richardson

415
00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:47,760
Speaker 1: as someone you would like to invest in as fan

416
00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 1: and better?

417
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:52,520
Speaker 4: So I thought it was the for all the reasons

418
00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:54,439
Speaker 4: you talked about the Colts, you know, the nickname of

419
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,879
Speaker 4: Indianapolis being Naptown for all those years, the patients and

420
00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:01,359
Speaker 4: sometimes astonishing patients that the Colts have had, and maybe

421
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,920
Speaker 4: too much patients their front office has showed. I thought

422
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 4: that was the perfect organization for Anthony because, like you said,

423
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,679
Speaker 4: he needed the time, He needed an organization and a

424
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,040
Speaker 4: fan base who wasn't going to go turn on him

425
00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:16,640
Speaker 4: after eight games, after sixteen games. But it has certainly

426
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,560
Speaker 4: been a rocky two years, and he's only played a

427
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 4: handful of games because of injury, and so I think

428
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:24,440
Speaker 4: that is the most alarming thing for me as a fan.

429
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,880
Speaker 4: As a better the Colts were better last season when

430
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 4: Richardson played, They were better against the number. They had

431
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 4: a bunch of close losses and covers. The I think

432
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,919
Speaker 4: Richardson at one point was seven and one ats because

433
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 4: his running ability.

434
00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:41,560
Speaker 3: In the red zone is effective.

435
00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:45,480
Speaker 4: His running ability enables them to run the ball better

436
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,680
Speaker 4: with Jonathan Taylor, things they were not getting with Joe Flacco.

437
00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,639
Speaker 4: And so there were plenty of bad but there was

438
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 4: also so much explosiveness in that team that you just

439
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,439
Speaker 4: don't quite have with most quarterbacks. And so I have

440
00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:00,480
Speaker 4: no problem with the pick with chasing the upside as

441
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 4: a better going into this season.

442
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 3: I think you're gonna know pretty quickly.

443
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:06,680
Speaker 4: You're gonna be able to tell even in training camp,

444
00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:11,439
Speaker 4: even in preseason. Richardson's mechanics is throwing mechanics, because they

445
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 4: haven't been great. He's struggled with the intermediate throws, and

446
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 4: he has a new throwing coach. He's working with the

447
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:19,359
Speaker 4: guy who helped fix Josh Allen's mechanics. So that's what

448
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:22,680
Speaker 4: we're clinging to as Colts fans and as potential over

449
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 4: seven and a half betters. But I think there's definitely

450
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 4: some kind of you know, stuck in the middle that

451
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:33,199
Speaker 4: the Colts have. They've been sitting in this seven to

452
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 4: ten win range for basically since the day Andrew Luck retired,

453
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 4: and so it's been very weird to figure out how

454
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 4: they get to that next echelon in this this loaded AFC.

455
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 1: Simon, please share with me your thoughts on Anthony's thoughts

456
00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:55,640
Speaker 1: on Anthony Richardson.

457
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a lot, it's unpacked, just because they are

458
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,360
Speaker 2: a team that that you know, my knock against them

459
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:04,919
Speaker 2: is that they are part of this group of loud

460
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 2: owners loud ownership that seems like they keep trying to

461
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 2: run their own ship and that's the last thing you

462
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 2: want in football. And you know we've seen prime examples.

463
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,920
Speaker 2: I mean just in one year of different ownership down

464
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 2: in Washington, right, he went from an owner that couldn't

465
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 2: stop being meddling in their business. You know, for sure,

466
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 2: if he was still the owner of Washington, he would

467
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 2: have taken Drake May last year with Jade Daniels like

468
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 2: it's it's not checking all that that they got rid

469
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 2: of him and they took the right quarterback for their

470
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 2: organization in Washington and with the Colts, I thought Anthony

471
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,239
Speaker 2: Richard at the time was the right pick. And you know,

472
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 2: you go back and you look and go, yeah, sure

473
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 2: the dream would have been if CJ would have felt

474
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 2: them right, or if they would have traded up to

475
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 2: that three spot, taken him over the Texans, and we

476
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,919
Speaker 2: talked chat at the time like that draft was going

477
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 2: to define this division over the next four to five

478
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 2: years or even longer. It was even quicker than that.

479
00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 2: It was year one. CJ came out, won the division

480
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 2: and now he's back to back champions of this division.

481
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 2: Will Levis already out of a job, right. They're gonna

482
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 2: draft km Ward this year and we just talked with

483
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 2: Anthony richardson he might get beat out in camp by

484
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 2: Daniel Jones simply because Daniel Jones he is gonna be

485
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 2: better than Anthony Richards and a lot of stuff that,

486
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 2: you know, the intermediate throws, reading in a defense, all

487
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 2: of that, he's gonna have a leg up on him.

488
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,359
Speaker 2: So you know, we're gonna learn a lot Chad this

489
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,159
Speaker 2: upcoming season that it's gonna be ownership that's kind of

490
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 2: have to step and say we want Anthony Richards to

491
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 2: be the quarterback here or the coach. I'd be shocked

492
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 2: if he didn't say, well, Daniel Jones is outplayed in

493
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 2: the camp. We have to start Daniel Jones here. So

494
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,159
Speaker 2: for the Colts, I hate it because it's like to me,

495
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 2: they should just roll Anthony richards once again. You know

496
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 2: you hopefully you see something from him this year three,

497
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 2: and if you don't, obviously you move on from him

498
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,920
Speaker 2: to the quarterback position because Daniel Jones gets you what, Chad,

499
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 2: eight and nine, nine and eight. Maybe a playoff birth

500
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 2: because you're in such a weak division. But to me,

501
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 2: it's just it's a loser move. It's a no win move.

502
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 2: And yeah, I feel like I can hear in Anthony's

503
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 2: voice here a little bit of just like there's no hope,

504
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 2: but there's still a little bit of hope that he

505
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,360
Speaker 2: shows up this offseason, had put in the work right,

506
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 2: got the right coaching staff, worked with the right QB

507
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 2: coach and doesn't make that year three change, or it

508
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 2: sucks like you've just wasted three years of the team.

509
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:19,120
Speaker 2: And like he knows, they're losing offensive lineman Jonathan Taylor

510
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,639
Speaker 2: is getting older like this, they might be for a

511
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 2: full rebuild these next couple of years if things just

512
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 2: go sour here, Chad, So it's bad.

513
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:26,360
Speaker 3: Here's the one thing.

514
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 4: Anthony Richardson and cam Ward were born three days apart.

515
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 4: He's still only twenty two years old, and so maybe

516
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 4: it never happens. But this is the guy who barely

517
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 4: played in college, and so if you're betting on the upside,

518
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 4: like you said, they needed to be patient, they needed

519
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 4: to be able to wait.

520
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,400
Speaker 3: It out, and I can't.

521
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 4: I always come back to that fact, which is just

522
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 4: that this guy is still only twenty two, and if

523
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,919
Speaker 4: you treat him like he's coming in for and I'm

524
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 4: treating this like his year two because I thought his

525
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,919
Speaker 4: year one he only played four games before he got

526
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 4: the shoulder injury. He was off for the year, so

527
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 4: you can't really evaluate that he didn't get a normal offseason.

528
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 4: So I'm treating this like his year two. And this

529
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 4: is kind of the make or break year, but maybe

530
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 4: it shouldn't even be because of how young he is

531
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 4: and how raw he is. But again, you know in

532
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:15,360
Speaker 4: the NFL, they're not going to let you just sit

533
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 4: around and burn three or four years developing a quarterback

534
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 4: who came in the league at twenty.

535
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 1: Well. I wonder if Shane Steiken bears some of the

536
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 1: responsibility in year two because he was brilliant in year

537
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 1: one as a play caller, right, and what he did

538
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 1: with Gardner Minshew and how he sort of turned that

539
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 1: team around in year two, I felt like there were

540
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 1: probably and we look, we watched a lot of Colts

541
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 1: games because we were always betting on the Colts because

542
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 1: we always felt they were undervalued. And most of the

543
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 1: time that you noted Anthony, they cashed and sort of

544
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 1: rewarded us with our courage. But there were a few

545
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 1: times where Anthony Richardson in games that he both covered

546
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 1: and didn't cover, was putting bad spots and making bad

547
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 1: decisions because of the play calling, and that was just

548
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 1: weird to me. Like Shane Steiken, I thought he was

549
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 1: the reason why the Eagles had won the Super Bowl

550
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago, and all of a sudden

551
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 1: he wasn't looking as smart as I thought he was.

552
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 4: It's the same cycle because the Eagles had Frank Reich

553
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:21,920
Speaker 4: as the offensive coordinator, Doug Peterson was the head coach.

554
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 4: They won the Super Bowl in twenty seventeen, and then

555
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 4: Reich left to take the Colts job, and Reich immediately

556
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 4: had success as a Colts coach. You know, Andrew Luck

557
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 4: was the quarterback in twenty eighteen, and the Eagles kind

558
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 4: of had a steady descent, and the belief in Philly

559
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 4: at time was that Reich was the real genius, and

560
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 4: it was in Peterson.

561
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:43,679
Speaker 3: Fast forward three years. Both guys are now out of the.

562
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 4: League, so I guess maybe who knows, But the same

563
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 4: cycle happened with Sirianni and Stichen, where Steichen was seen

564
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:53,919
Speaker 4: as the genius. When the Eagles had this unbelievable collapse

565
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 4: last year, it was Stiking, it was Gad and Sirianni's loss.

566
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 3: He doesn't know what he's doing.

567
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,400
Speaker 4: He should be fired. Everybody wanted him fire in Philly.

568
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 4: Anybody who says otherwise is probably lying. And yet we

569
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 4: come around and Stichan's on the hot seat ish entering

570
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 4: this season, and Sirianni's is your bull champ. So it's

571
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,719
Speaker 4: just funny how we craft these like narratives based on

572
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 4: a handful of games and we end up being completely

573
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 4: right sometimes and completely wrong another time.

574
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 1: What does that say about anything we're doing?

575
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a good point. Maybe we don't know as

576
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 3: much as we think we know.

577
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,919
Speaker 1: I don't know we know more than we think we know,

578
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 1: or we know less than we think we know, but

579
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,679
Speaker 1: we definitely don't know exactly the amount that we just

580
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:32,919
Speaker 1: we know.

581
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 3: We just want to be right like fifty four percent

582
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 3: of the time.

583
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,160
Speaker 1: Speaking of being right fifty four percent of the time,

584
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:42,400
Speaker 1: what was your take on the Favorites constantly covering last

585
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 1: year and how is that impacting some of your off

586
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:46,639
Speaker 1: season prep work.

587
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 4: I don't want to take anything into consideration from last

588
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 4: season in terms of overreacting to a great Favorites run.

589
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 4: Now that could cost me a lot of money in

590
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:57,680
Speaker 4: the upcoming fall.

591
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 3: But I just what has fundamentally changed in the league.

592
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 4: You know, maybe tanking is becoming more of a thing,

593
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 4: so in weeks like thirteen to eighteen, you maybe reconsider

594
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 4: some of those ugly ugly underdogs. But even still, like

595
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 4: the Giants still beat the Colts this year, there were

596
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 4: still like, you know, games where upsets happened, the Panthers

597
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 4: beating the Falcons on the final final game to knock

598
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:21,399
Speaker 4: them out of playoff contention.

599
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 3: So I think sometimes these things happen.

600
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:28,199
Speaker 4: And I'm trying not to make bold proclamations about like

601
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:32,199
Speaker 4: what it means about football going forward, because I don't know.

602
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 4: Nothing that's really happening in the league is so different

603
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 4: than it used to be. Like teams are going forward

604
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 4: on fourth down more, I guess maybe that helps favorites.

605
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 1: Well help that can't be. I don't disagree with you,

606
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 1: like we shouldn't be overreacting. A lot of the work

607
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 1: I've been doing this offseason has made me think maybe

608
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 1: I don't want to overreact. I think Simon feels differently.

609
00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 1: But teams going forward on fourth down, that's that's the

610
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 1: ball game, that's not a let's just dismiss this one

611
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 1: little fact from the equation. That is the fact, and

612
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 1: that is sort of the line of demarcation between I

613
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 1: think people who are going to account for it and

614
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 1: make changes in people who aren't. Anthony, you can respond, Simon,

615
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 1: I would like your response after that, this is our

616
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 1: little MW. Blacklin group.

617
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 3: But how do you try to predict it?

618
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 2: Though?

619
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 4: Like I mean, going in the last the Commanders were

620
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 4: like one hundred and eight percent on fourth down last year.

621
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 4: I don't know if that's I don't think that's sustainable.

622
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,479
Speaker 4: I think the actual number was like eighty something. Do

623
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 4: you say they're going to automatically be better than every

624
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 4: other team on fourth down because of Jayden and Daniels?

625
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 3: Do you say that was a one off? I don't know.

626
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 4: I think that's the big question I do think though,

627
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 4: if the underdogs are going to start optimizing to try

628
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 4: to win games instead of playing not to lose, which

629
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 4: you see a lot. You see, like how many times

630
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:55,719
Speaker 4: we see team in an underdog and they're like punting

631
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 4: on fourth and three. You know, if they're going for

632
00:29:58,040 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 4: it more, does that open up opportunities for the FA

633
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 4: favorites to get more margin? Maybe, But again it seems

634
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,719
Speaker 4: very noisy to me year to year to be like, oh, actually,

635
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 4: now favorites are gonna win at a big rate. And

636
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 4: I think maybe there were just more bad teams than

637
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 4: usual last year, like also could have been part of it, Simon.

638
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, And my biggest hope is why Anthony Saint is

639
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 2: right of the fact that people like me are overadjusting.

640
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 2: The sportsbooks over adjusts as well, and we get two

641
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 2: to three extra free points of some of these dogs. Chat.

642
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 2: That would be amazing obviously for us, because then of

643
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 2: course we'd feel more comfortable. But you know, even talking

644
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 2: to the guys who've been doing it for a long time,

645
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 2: the change of either starting at your twenty after a

646
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 2: kickoff or starting your thirty five now after a kickoff

647
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 2: is so massive, like it really is, especially with these

648
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:46,959
Speaker 2: good teams where me and you talk about chat, if

649
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 2: you pick up one first down, you were now at

650
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 2: the forty five or the forty seven. Like that now

651
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 2: puts that team, especially with a good quarterback that you

652
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 2: believe in, in the driver's seat, where it is a

653
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 2: major difference. Where it's like we saw last year, these

654
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 2: bad quarterbacks, the coaches didn't have faith in them, so

655
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 2: instead of going for it on fourth and two, fourth

656
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 2: and three from the opponents, you know, forty eight or

657
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 2: their own their own side of the ball, their own

658
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 2: forty eight, they just didn't do it right. They always

659
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 2: punted where the flip side the good teams went for it.

660
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 2: I mean me and Chad had multiple multiple weeks of

661
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 2: the dogs we bet were great in the first half,

662
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 2: and then the second half their teams were punting and

663
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 2: the other team were going for a fourth downs And

664
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 2: that's simply where like even when I went through the numbers,

665
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 2: we lost so many games on those type of scenarios

666
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 2: where historically we've always been good with the dogs, like

667
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 2: the home dogs have been good to us. So my

668
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 2: biggest adjustment to it is I'm not going to react

669
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 2: to it. Right, I'm still gonna do what we always do, Chad,

670
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 2: right in week one, Week two, it's always good to

671
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 2: take the dogs, right. The public will always react and

672
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 2: bet from the previous season. My big adjustment will be

673
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 2: that middle of the season, right when me and you

674
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 2: are really going through it, and that's when we usually

675
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 2: laying to the dogs that we saw last year, that

676
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 2: run that I mean, Evan kept talking about every week.

677
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 2: It was like the doll the favorites were hitting at

678
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 2: over sixty five percent, then it will get to seventy percent,

679
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 2: and it was like, this isn't going down, this is

680
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 2: going up. And that never happens with the book. So

681
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 2: that's that's my biggest adjustment I'm going to make is

682
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go into the year hoping to bet dogs,

683
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 2: but I'm not gonna be stubborn like I was last year. Like,

684
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 2: if there's a team like the Titans like they were

685
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 2: this year, Chad, the worst team of football, me and

686
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 2: you are gonna try out think it. We're gonna bet

687
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 2: against them, right, We're gonna fade that bad quarterback because

688
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 2: that's going to be profitable in the way the league

689
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 2: has gone. So I'm interesting, You're Anthony's viewing that where

690
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 2: it's like I love betting on bad quarterbacks. That's really

691
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 2: shifted after last season where it's like we're dead, Like

692
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 2: these guys don't go for an on fourth down because

693
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 2: they know the quarterback sucks. Why would you ever go

694
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 2: for it with Will Levis on fourth down? You know

695
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 2: you're gonna lose that battle every time. When they did,

696
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 2: they lost sixteen straight games against the spread, something we

697
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 2: never seen before. So where are you at with that?

698
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 4: Anthony ben Johnson made a really interesting comment the other

699
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 4: day about how EPA on passes is now more predicted

700
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 4: than turnover margin in football. That was really interesting to

701
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 4: me because I think a lot of times when we

702
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 4: watch games, we're like, oh, yeah, like the box score

703
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 4: was pretty even, but that one team they had like

704
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 4: three fluky turnovers.

705
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 3: That's not going to continue.

706
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 4: We need to start looking at this, I think from

707
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 4: like a quarterback passing game perspective and maybe overweight you know,

708
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 4: quarterbacks again. And it's simple and it's square right to

709
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 4: be like, oh, you know, I don't want to bet

710
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 4: Will Levis against insert good quarterback here. But as this

711
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 4: continues to trend, it's going to be really really hard

712
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 4: for the math to make sense as offenses get more efficient,

713
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 4: and one of the things you mentioned about early season.

714
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 4: Early season offenses were certainly down, like the first four weeks,

715
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 4: even the good teams were not as efficient offensively. I

716
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 4: wonder if that's a knock on from preseason, you know,

717
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,040
Speaker 4: the preseason being dead. Do we see unders and underdogs

718
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 4: do better early and then the favorites kind of like

719
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 4: lock in kicking the gear, sort some things out and

720
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 4: play at a higher level down the stretch seems to

721
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 4: be especially with the extra week now and more playoff teams,

722
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 4: there's more margin for air for you to be like, ah,

723
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 4: you know, we're two and two four weeks and we

724
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 4: haven't looked very good and then we figured it out and.

725
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 2: Easy teams to jump out for that what you just

726
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 2: said are like teams that liked the Eagles last year

727
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,840
Speaker 2: had new coordinators. Detroit. It's gonna be a rough in

728
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 2: Detroit those first couple of weeks, right, They've lost their

729
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 2: offensive mind and their defensive mind, and you know, it

730
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 2: was really interesting. Brandon Graham was just recently on a

731
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 2: show with Kelsey Brothers and he talked about that losing

732
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 2: after the Super Bowl, losing both gain and shiking, and

733
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 2: he was just talking about they had new coaches coming

734
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 2: and he was just like, I don't know about these dudes.

735
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 2: And then they got rid of them, and his next

736
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 2: year they had new coaches in again. Last year and

737
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 2: he said fans came in and Kick clearly told them

738
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 2: the Eagles defense. He's like, you guys are lazy and

739
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 2: you're losers, and just basically talked shit to them for

740
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 2: the first three months, and he said it sucked like

741
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 2: they all hated him. They said it was brutal, and

742
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 2: then they started doing well and winning and he started

743
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 2: being cool with them. As time went on, he said,

744
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 2: we just kept getting better and better. He's went along

745
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 2: and that's that to me, is what you're talking about here,

746
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 2: where it's like, you know, these guys come in the preseason,

747
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 2: it's it's them trying to fix bad habits, not so

748
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 2: much to them learning a new d defensive scheme and

749
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 2: stuff like that. So it is gonna interest see these

750
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:05,839
Speaker 2: teams that have new coordinators coming in big differences. Are

751
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 2: we gonna have an advantage there? Chat trying to fade

752
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 2: those teams that you know people are still going to

753
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,280
Speaker 2: perceive this Detroit offense being of the best office on football.

754
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 2: How do you not think losing you know, an offensive

755
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:16,879
Speaker 2: genius in Ben Johnson is not gonna be a big deal.

756
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:18,439
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be. So. I think there's

757
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,400
Speaker 2: gonna be some opportunity thus early on in the season

758
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 2: to fade some of these teams Chad and maybe.

759
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 4: By Low, you know, midseason kind of thing, because they're

760
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 4: still very talented in Detroita.

761
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:31,399
Speaker 1: You mean like buying the Atlanta Braves Low. Yes, it's

762
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 1: interesting what you say about Ben Johnson. I saw that

763
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 1: same quote about EPA, and EPA has sort of become

764
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 1: the favorite stat of the NFL geekarate and at some

765
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 1: point doesn't that just become overvalued, Like if everyone is

766
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 1: incorporating into their model, if everyone is leaning into it,

767
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 1: it's very hard to look at that and say, Okay,

768
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 1: that's my north star of metrics when I'm thinking about

769
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:05,799
Speaker 1: a play that I'm going to.

770
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 4: Make for sure, and it's also not opponent adjusted usually,

771
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 4: so that's another part of it, which you know DVOA,

772
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 4: which I think was the original Digraatti. That one was

773
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:18,360
Speaker 4: at least opponent adjusted, but it was harder to understand

774
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 4: and grasp. I think than EPA is because people can

775
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 4: kind of understand like positive negative, and you know what

776
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 4: impacts certain outlier plays can have.

777
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 3: I like success rate.

778
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 4: I think success rate is still king for me in

779
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 4: terms of like predictive value because you see these teams

780
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 4: and yes, explosiveness matters, but you know, you see these

781
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:39,880
Speaker 4: teams that run off a couple of handful of extreme

782
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 4: outlier plays every game to juice their EPA numbers or

783
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 4: to do certain things. You can also do EPA without turnovers,

784
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 4: so there's ways to maybe massage and look look a

785
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 4: little deeper than just baseline EPA because there's all kinds

786
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 4: of there's almost too many stats now when it comes

787
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:58,240
Speaker 4: to evaluating these football games.

788
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 1: I agree and like, I love success rate, but then

789
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:06,800
Speaker 1: you think about success rate and it's kind of it's

790
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:12,360
Speaker 1: naturally evened out and doesn't account for the explosiveness that

791
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 1: is the ultimate game changer, literally in every single game

792
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,000
Speaker 1: that determines if you're going to win or lose a bet. Right,

793
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 1: none of these games go flat, right, there's there are EKGs,

794
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 1: and success rate is a metric that is a flat line,

795
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 1: whereas the explosiveness you need to be able to account

796
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 1: for it like.

797
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 4: Right, what is trench warfare? Success rate is the trench?

798
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 4: You're in the trench? Chinda, Yeah, move the trench ten

799
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:43,479
Speaker 4: yards one way and then move it back ten yards

800
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,319
Speaker 4: and then somebody throws a grenade and blows up.

801
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 1: And it's all over and success rate success rate can't

802
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:52,840
Speaker 1: beat a grenade, right, It's like rock, paper scissors, grenade

803
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 1: greater than success rate.

804
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 3: There we go.

805
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 4: Maybe we need to call it the new stat That's

806
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:00,080
Speaker 4: what we need. I'm always thinking about that.

807
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 1: We need a new stat. I think I might figure

808
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 1: one out. I think I'm getting it.

809
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 3: Might have to be, might have to be.

810
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 4: I feel like the luck rankings are somewhat of that nature,

811
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 4: like which laves more actually have been expected score.

812
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:14,759
Speaker 1: The luck rankings are brilliant and and you're absolutely right,

813
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 1: and shame on us for not mentioning that sooner, because

814
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 1: they are sort of a revolutionary stat that Nick Giffen

815
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 1: and Sean Kerner and Billy Warden and have sort of

816
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 1: worked on and thought a lot about it, and it's

817
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 1: obviously a really important part of what Simon and I

818
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: do during the season. We we love it, but now

819
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 1: we've talked about it too much. Other people might be

820
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 1: using it too.

821
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:39,280
Speaker 3: And nothing.

822
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 4: Nothing stays. Nothing that's any good stays stays hidden forever.

823
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 1: Nothing.

824
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:45,800
Speaker 4: Two or three years ago, used to go on Payoff

825
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 4: Pitch with Zarillo. We used to talk about Stuff Plus

826
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 4: how much we loved it. We had the charts and

827
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 4: we were discussing it. And now all I do on

828
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:54,880
Speaker 4: baseball Twitter, everybody's talking about Stuff Plus and I'm like, uh,

829
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 4: it might be might be solved. People might know too

830
00:38:57,320 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 4: much about it now, might have to zag and go

831
00:38:59,120 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 4: the other way.

832
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 1: Hey, you just came off a great run in college

833
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:08,319
Speaker 1: basketball betting first to ten. I think yes, you could

834
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 1: follow that in the award winning Action Network app where

835
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:13,240
Speaker 1: you're posting your picks explain yourself.

836
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 4: So you know, you watch certain college basketball teams, you

837
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:21,840
Speaker 4: start to notice patterns. And I it was a tournament

838
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 4: of the Favorite, right, so everybody was like, oh, I

839
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 4: got this dog plus eight and a half, and they

840
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:26,840
Speaker 4: might be tied for a bit, but then they just

841
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 4: the favorite goes on a twenty zero run and you're

842
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:31,400
Speaker 4: drawing dead by the under twelve in the second half.

843
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:34,840
Speaker 4: And so Saint John's was playing Arkansas, and this was

844
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:37,919
Speaker 4: the Friday night before and I was talking with John

845
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,560
Speaker 4: Destremsky on our pod and we were talking about, hey,

846
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 4: like we I liked Arkansas a little bit, but I thaid,

847
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 4: I think they can hit him early. Saint John's have

848
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 4: been slow starters all year, which let's do Arkansas race

849
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:49,760
Speaker 4: at ten. Like people have been having fun with these bets,

850
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:52,759
Speaker 4: you like to take the underdog. Arkansas came out red hot.

851
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:54,319
Speaker 4: I think it was like ten to two. I'm like,

852
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 4: this was easy. I should do this more often. So

853
00:39:57,200 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 4: it started with fading Saint John's and Michigan State, who

854
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 4: were two with these like overrated teams that started slow

855
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:04,319
Speaker 4: every game, and we went to and oh and then

856
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 4: I was like, all right, well, now that I'm having

857
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 4: fun with this, let's do one per day for the

858
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:08,800
Speaker 4: rest of the tournament.

859
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 3: So we went out against.

860
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 4: Alabama and BYU got run out of the gym, but

861
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:15,319
Speaker 4: not in the first ten points. They didn't, so we

862
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 4: were three and oh and then I'm like, okay, we

863
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:17,879
Speaker 4: get the fate of Michigan State again.

864
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 3: We had all miss and then Texas Tech.

865
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 4: So we kept betting all these underdogs and they kept

866
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:25,239
Speaker 4: losing the game, but they kept winning the race to ten.

867
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 4: So it was really fun, and it ultimately culminated in

868
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 4: an eight and oh run, which came down to just

869
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 4: two incredible finishes.

870
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:33,840
Speaker 3: The last two.

871
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 4: Games, Auburn was eight eight against Florida and they fouled

872
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 4: Jani Broom, who's a sixty percent free throw shooter, and

873
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 4: I'm running through the scenario. I'm like, all right, so

874
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 4: he's gonna make one of two. Florida's gonna come down,

875
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:45,920
Speaker 4: They're gonna make a basket.

876
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:49,600
Speaker 3: I'm gonna lose. He nails both free throws. We're good.

877
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 4: And then in the National Championship, like the mania had

878
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 4: gotten so crazy, I had two friends text me. They're like,

879
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 4: I've never placed a sports bet in my life, but

880
00:40:57,000 --> 00:41:00,840
Speaker 4: I'm on Houston with you. Race to ten ten dollars bet,

881
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:03,280
Speaker 4: Like one guy had ten dollars, one guy had twenty dollars.

882
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 4: They're down eight six, they get a basket, Walter Clayton

883
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:08,359
Speaker 4: makes the worst pass you've ever seen.

884
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 3: They turn it over.

885
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 4: But now it's the media timeout, so I'm like shaking

886
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:14,320
Speaker 4: during the media timeout, being like, oh my gosh, we

887
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 4: got to wait four minutes for this game to come back.

888
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 4: But I'm thinking Houston's going to have a good play

889
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:21,320
Speaker 4: coming out of this time out. They run a beautiful

890
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 4: slip screen dunk posterization.

891
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 3: Me and my buddies are at softball.

892
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:28,879
Speaker 4: We're losing our minds celebrating because I had the whole

893
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 4: team on the bet and we finished the eight and

894
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:33,399
Speaker 4: oh run and I'll bring it back next March.

895
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 1: That is the ultimate to phileas scum bag degenerate run

896
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 1: right there.

897
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:41,600
Speaker 4: Well, because we're all going crazy and people are looking

898
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 4: at us, like from the other team, they're like, what's

899
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 4: going on? Like why are these guys yelling about the

900
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:46,799
Speaker 4: basketball game?

901
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:49,840
Speaker 3: It just started. We're like, well, they got to ten first.

902
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 4: They lost the game too, by the way, So eight

903
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 4: and zero on the run the teams who got to

904
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,439
Speaker 4: ten first, two and six when it comes to winning

905
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 4: the game.

906
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 1: Before we let you go, we can't let you go

907
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 1: without noting that the Philadelphia seventy six ers are thirty

908
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:08,879
Speaker 1: two games below five hundred, so, you know, decent chance

909
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:12,759
Speaker 1: they get their top five protected pick. Decent chance, thirty

910
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:15,799
Speaker 1: five percent chance they don't have any pick because they

911
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 1: have to give it to OKC, one of the best

912
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:22,800
Speaker 1: teams in the league if it's below top five Cleveland

913
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:27,240
Speaker 1: OKC number one number one in Eastern and Western Conference?

914
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 1: Do you have any thoughts on your NBA Finals winner?

915
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 4: So I don't know how it's not Cleveland or Boston

916
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 4: from the East based on some very very baseline level

917
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 4: analysis that I've done and listen to some of my

918
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:48,840
Speaker 4: colleagues who follow it more closely than I do. But

919
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:51,440
Speaker 4: in the West, I think it could be more interesting.

920
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 4: I mean, okay, see, is historic really good And I

921
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 4: think maybe we'll all look back and be like, yeah, idiots,

922
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 4: it was always going to be okay, see, look at

923
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:00,280
Speaker 4: how good they are. But I think that's the difference

924
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:04,279
Speaker 4: where there could be more parody, more intrigue, you.

925
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 3: Know, if you want to get really crazy.

926
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:08,560
Speaker 4: I was joking around like if the Clippers stay healthy

927
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 4: and if James Harden, you know, we're asking for something

928
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 4: that usually doesn't happen.

929
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:13,920
Speaker 3: But if they do it, I think they have a

930
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:14,760
Speaker 3: pretty high ceiling.

931
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 4: They're like thirty thirty to one, thirty five to one

932
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 4: to win the finals, in like fifteen to one, sixteen

933
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 4: to one to win the West, so they would probably

934
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 4: be the team right now. I think if you're looking

935
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:24,919
Speaker 4: to get in because the Warriors, the Lakers, like people

936
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:27,280
Speaker 4: have caught onto them, the Thunder or the Thunder.

937
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 3: Who's the next team.

938
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 4: It's probably the Clippers, but I kind of think, like

939
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:34,759
Speaker 4: every other sport these days, it's probably just going to

940
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:37,760
Speaker 4: be chocky with Oka see versus either Boston or Cleveland.

941
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:38,560
Speaker 3: Probably Boston.

942
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:43,480
Speaker 1: There's some stat I can't remember, but similar to the

943
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 1: NFL where the teams that have the shortest odds to

944
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:50,319
Speaker 1: start the season, like twelve to oh, twelve, twelve to

945
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:55,799
Speaker 1: one or less, that matchup usually plays out and one

946
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 1: of those teams wins the Super Bowl. I can't remember

947
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:01,920
Speaker 1: how long it's been to it's a team that was

948
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:04,880
Speaker 1: outside the top four or five and shortest.

949
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 2: Odds to believe with Dallas Mavericks to win. Yeah, I

950
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 2: think Evan had some crazy stat like that was it?

951
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:14,319
Speaker 1: What you mean, the Dirk Mavericks.

952
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 2: The Dirk Mavericks, right, the longish odds in recent and

953
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 2: recent Yeah, that could be a yeah, I feel of

954
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:25,240
Speaker 2: Golden State first first time Golden State, right, Sorry, Yeah,

955
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 2: that was like everyone knew was coming, but no one

956
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:29,400
Speaker 2: really knew. I think they were greater than what you

957
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:30,439
Speaker 2: had saying it's ten to one.

958
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 1: It's been a long time.

959
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:36,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, you usually takes something crazy to happen, Like,

960
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 4: you know, the Raptors got their win, but then that

961
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:41,279
Speaker 4: was when like the whole Warriors team ended up hurt

962
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 4: by the end of the finals, or you know, you

963
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 4: look at like even that whole run, like Kd's toe

964
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:49,919
Speaker 4: is on the line or whatever. So yeah, over the years,

965
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:52,359
Speaker 4: it's been been pretty schocky. It looks that way now.

966
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 4: I mean we've had teams get to the finals. The

967
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:56,399
Speaker 4: Heat have gotten to the finals. I think that people

968
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:59,320
Speaker 4: are shocked by that. But I think it's pretty shocking

969
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:02,840
Speaker 4: that to actually win it is a different story. Like

970
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 4: even the MAVs last year came out of nowhere, but

971
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:05,839
Speaker 4: they didn't win it, right, they got close.

972
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:08,439
Speaker 2: We got to end on a football there, Chad. So also,

973
00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 2: if forgot to mention the top of the show, gotta

974
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 2: download the Masters app if you're gambling on the Masters.

975
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 2: The Masters App is the greatest thing ever invented for gamblers,

976
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:22,839
Speaker 2: So please download it. But Anthony, you're a Colts fan.

977
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 2: You guys got to pick fourteen? Who the fuck do

978
00:45:26,080 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 2: you want? If you take Sanders? Are you gonna kill yourself?

979
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 2: What's gonna happen to pick fourteen?

980
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 3: Years because I'll be very upset if we take Sanders.

981
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 3: I think I would be pretty shocked if we took Sanders.

982
00:45:37,320 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 2: Me too.

983
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:41,600
Speaker 3: But you know, I think the tight ends are the

984
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 3: two tight ends. Tyler Warren.

985
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 2: There's no way Tyler Warren drops you. Chad's getting Tyler Warren.

986
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, So I think a lot of people are understanding

987
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 4: that we're probably not going to get him, but Loveland's

988
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:55,280
Speaker 4: the next guy. Yeah, Well we are one pick ahead

989
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 4: of the Chargers, who a lot of people think Jimmy's

990
00:45:58,040 --> 00:45:58,800
Speaker 4: gonna want Loveland.

991
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:02,759
Speaker 3: So I think that we're kind of in that.

992
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:05,719
Speaker 4: Mix for for Loveland and and that'll be where we

993
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 4: end up.

994
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:07,879
Speaker 2: But any of the receivers do you like or you don't?

995
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:10,399
Speaker 4: You' He drafted a lot of receivers and they don't

996
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 4: usually take the first round. Just he'd like to take

997
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:15,839
Speaker 4: second and third round receivers. Yeah, because Pittman was second round,

998
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:19,239
Speaker 4: Mitchell was second round, Pierce was second round. So they've

999
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:21,640
Speaker 4: liked the kind of that tier of receiver and you

1000
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:23,719
Speaker 4: could argue maybe they should take a bigger shot. But

1001
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:26,279
Speaker 4: I think, you know, tight end has been a black

1002
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:28,760
Speaker 4: hole for the Colts for really since, like Eric Ebron

1003
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 4: and and.

1004
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:32,000
Speaker 3: Uh and Derek Allen and Dwayne Allen.

1005
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 1: Way back in the day, Ken from Illinois, Dallas Clark,

1006
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:38,440
Speaker 1: Dallas Clark. He was pretty good.

1007
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 4: But so they've had issues. They drafted, you know, some

1008
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 4: mid round guys that haven't quite panned out. I think

1009
00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 4: it's something that they want to solidify. So I think

1010
00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 4: tight end will be in the mix. If not, just

1011
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:51,240
Speaker 4: always assume that Ballard will take some freaky eight defensive

1012
00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 4: end athlete who's ends up being just average.

1013
00:46:56,560 --> 00:46:58,759
Speaker 2: I would yeah, okay, I'll bet that.

1014
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:01,840
Speaker 1: Before Anthony was I did a story for Sports Illustrated

1015
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:07,960
Speaker 1: about Ken Dilger the Indianapolis Colts tight End. As a reminder,

1016
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 1: the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five

1017
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1018
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1019
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1020
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00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:25,920
Speaker 1: used on spread totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever

1023
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 1: the moment it's never Ordinary at bet three sixty five.

1024
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:33,400
Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,

1025
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

1026
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:40,240
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

1027
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms condition

1028
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 1: and restrictions apply. Thank you Anthony Debundo from the Ringer

1029
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:52,399
Speaker 1: for joining our show. Continue to do amazing work over there,

1030
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 1: Simon and I will return with our next episode of

1031
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 1: the Favorites on the Action Never're You two page Tuesday,

1032
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 1: one thirty pm Eastern, talking NFL Draft with another former

1033
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 1: Action Network colleague, Matthew Friedman. Download some Spotify, have ale

1034
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 1: pos wherever you get your positate, review, subscribe with as

1035
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 1: fight Stars say whatever you want, feedback gauys give until

1036
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:13,040
Speaker 1: next time.

1037
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:23,520
Speaker 3: Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1038
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:26,760
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1039
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:29,680
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1040
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler