Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: A single best idea. Paul Sweeney just told me it's
Speaker 2: going to be a long speech. I guess the president
Speaker 2: has wound up. We're all going to have to get
Speaker 2: comfortable with our popcorn and a beverage of your choice
Speaker 2: for a lengthy State of the Union. Joe Matthew, Kaylee
Speaker 2: Lions will have great conversation, deeper, thicker, better conversation than
Speaker 2: so many others. I think they do a great job
Speaker 2: at that. Our conversation that he was on trade Douglas
Speaker 2: Irwin definitive on the American history of trade and tariff.
Speaker 2: Doug Irwin of Dartmouth College on the next legal battles.
Speaker 3: The new terriffs, which are ten percent. He's promised fifteen percent,
Speaker 3: but they haven't issued the executive order on that quite yet.
Speaker 3: Those will probably be subject to legal challenge, and that's
Speaker 3: because the statute allows for the President to impose tariffs
Speaker 3: in the cases of a balance of payments, deficit, or disequilibrium,
Speaker 3: and it's not clear that in an era of floating
Speaker 3: exchange grades, whether it's such a thing exists anymore. Now.
Speaker 3: The other side is that the tariffs can only be
Speaker 3: in effect for one hundred and fifty days and then
Speaker 3: require congressional approval. So there's a lot of uncertainty about
Speaker 3: how this is going to play out over the next
Speaker 3: couple months.
Speaker 2: Douggarwyn of Dartmouth Nathan Deane stopped by running Policy US
Speaker 2: Policy for Bloomberg Intelligence. He had a very cogent summary
Speaker 2: of what to look for this evening.
Speaker 4: There's three themes that we're telling our clients to watch
Speaker 4: out for. The first is geopolitics, and the reason why
Speaker 4: this is so important is for everything else, President Trump
Speaker 4: says tonight, there's a process, we can work the process,
Speaker 4: and there's time to respond. For geopolitics, that can change
Speaker 4: in an instance, so obviously keep an eye on what
Speaker 4: he says there. The other is tariffs. He's going to
Speaker 4: double down on tariffs. I don't think you're going to
Speaker 4: see any new information coming out from tariffs, but he's
Speaker 4: going to double down, and he's going to have to
Speaker 4: look the Supreme Court in the eye and say, why
Speaker 4: did you essentially reverse my AEPA tariffs. But when it
Speaker 4: comes to affordability, you know, we're seeing a lot of
Speaker 4: headline risks and opportunities. We don't anticipate a lot of
Speaker 4: new ideas.
Speaker 2: Nathan d There of Bloomberg Intelligence on the soiree this evening.
Speaker 2: On podcasts, We're on on Apple, We're on Spotify. On
Speaker 2: YouTube podcasts, a single best idea