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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over a second.

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Speaker 1: Hello, Welcome to the Action Network podcast at the UFC

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Speaker 1: Betting Preview. I'm Sean Zerulo, joined today by Billy Ward

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Speaker 1: and to help you break down the UFC Vegas one

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Speaker 1: fourteen card, to give your best bets, favorite underdogs, top

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Speaker 1: props and more. Present a virus sponsor, DraftKings and if

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Speaker 1: you'd like to tell some of the bets on today's show,

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Speaker 1: make sure to find the clips link both in the

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Speaker 1: podcast and video description, or visit Actionnework dot com. Slash

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Speaker 1: bet now fourteen fight card as of now from the

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Speaker 1: Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Five pm PRELIMBS, eight

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Speaker 1: pm main card. We have lost about a fight a

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Speaker 1: week as of late, so fourteen fight card as of

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Speaker 1: recording prior Toway and the main event though Kevin b.

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Speaker 1: Ballejos about a minus five to fifty favorite going against

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Speaker 1: Josh Emmett, who is north of plus four hundred and

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Speaker 1: five round featherweight bout. Billy A bit tough to handicap

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Speaker 1: this one, bit tough to find actionable ways to bet

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Speaker 1: on this one seventeen year age gap between the two.

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Speaker 1: I did run the math. In the BET MMA tips database,

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Speaker 1: dating back to I believe twenty fourteen, some more than

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Speaker 1: ten years, they have sixty recorded MMA fights between fighters

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Speaker 1: with at least a fifteen year age gap. That includes

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Speaker 1: the Rob font Hellosaus fight from the other day. That

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Speaker 1: also includes the I believe it was the Jim Miller

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Speaker 1: Chase Hooper fight from last year. Chase Hooper also has

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Speaker 1: another fight on there as well, where Clay Gita yep

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Speaker 1: Chase Sooper fight was on there as well. But the

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Speaker 1: takeaway was among these sixty fights, the average odds for

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Speaker 1: the younger man again and has to be at least

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Speaker 1: the fifteen year age gap. The average odds for the

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Speaker 1: younger fighter, I should say, because there were women's fights

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Speaker 1: in there as well, was about minus one twenty five

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Speaker 1: and they win close to about a sixty five percent clip.

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Speaker 1: I think they won thirty nine of those sixty fights.

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Speaker 1: And you may say that's a small sixty fight sample.

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Speaker 1: We've referenced constantly on the show and I reference in

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Speaker 1: my articles fairly consistently. When there's at least eight years

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Speaker 1: ten years between fighters, that gap relative to the money

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Speaker 1: line market is closer to fourteen percent, so I think

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Speaker 1: it's pretty consistent to see the younger fighter is generally undervalued.

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Speaker 1: People know who Josh Emmat is, They've seen him in

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Speaker 1: four or five UFC made events. Now this is the

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Speaker 1: first UFC made event for Kevin Valleto's first time he'll

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Speaker 1: go five rounds potentially or twenty five minutes in his

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Speaker 1: professional career. Now, both of these guys are super durable

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Speaker 1: to head strikes, but the ends by knockout is the

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Speaker 1: favored winning method for this fight, and that is where

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Speaker 1: I project value in this bout. I make that line

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Speaker 1: about minus one six. You can get as low as

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Speaker 1: minus one twenty five at DraftKings. I believe they did

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Speaker 1: have the best price for this prop. The alternative bet

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Speaker 1: is valay host by knockout. I make that minus one

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Speaker 1: oh nine. You can get around plus one ten, just

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Speaker 1: the slightly bigger edge on the ends by ko. It

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Speaker 1: was like a six and a half percent edge versus

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Speaker 1: a four and a half percent edge. I'm fine with

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Speaker 1: either of those bets, depending on the pricing or depending

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Speaker 1: what you have access to. As I said, both guys

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Speaker 1: super durable to head strikes, but Emma has taken a

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Speaker 1: ton of damage in his last two five round fights,

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Speaker 1: got submitted quickly in his last fight by use of

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Speaker 1: lalal is in his forties. I think it's certainly slowed down,

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Speaker 1: the physicality waning, and I think at some point he

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Speaker 1: is going to get dropped five shots, but still carry

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Speaker 1: some of the most significant power of the division and

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Speaker 1: could absolutely hurt Valley Hoos himself. So ends by ko.

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Speaker 1: My bet for this fight not a significant bet by

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Speaker 1: any means, but it was the most value that I

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Speaker 1: found in the market. Bill. You're going with a prop

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Speaker 1: approach here, You're going to take some of the lay

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Speaker 1: hosts significant strike overs. Did you find any lines available

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Speaker 1: for that yet? And if not, what are you looking for?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: So DraftKings definitely does not have well they have the

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Speaker 4: best line on this one, and that they're the closest

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Speaker 4: to what I view is correct, not not the best

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Speaker 4: in the one. I most want to bet they have

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Speaker 4: this one at eighty five and a half. If you

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Speaker 4: shop around, you can get as low as seventy and

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Speaker 4: a half. My projection on Vallet Hoos significant strikes is

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Speaker 4: that mid eighties point to your point, both very durable guys,

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Speaker 4: so that means the fight is likely to extend. I

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Speaker 4: don't see vallet Host suddenly turning into you know, black

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Speaker 4: belt Kevin here and trying to take this to the

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Speaker 4: ground and submit Josh Emmett. He also understands the assignment

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Speaker 4: of being in a main event, in fighting a legend

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Speaker 4: and trying to put on a little bit more of

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Speaker 4: a show. The over under slightly favored to three and

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Speaker 4: a half, which tells when we get about seventeen or

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Speaker 4: eighteen minutes is the you know, median length of time.

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Speaker 4: Vallejos has landed what's the five point seven to eight

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Speaker 4: significant strikes in his UFC career against ever increasing composition.

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Speaker 4: You know that includes gigachikods in his last fight, and

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Speaker 4: it actually takes strikes at a considerably above average rate

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Speaker 4: as well, not in terms of percentage wise, but total

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Speaker 4: strikes absorbed per minute.

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Speaker 3: So we combine those together.

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Speaker 4: I've got lay hosts for mid fives per minute, and

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Speaker 4: we think this one goes about eighteen minutes, so you

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Speaker 4: can see how we get to mid eighties.

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Speaker 3: Is the projection there. The risk with.

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Speaker 4: Emmett is that the durability finally fails him, right and

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Speaker 4: valley host just overwhelms him and gets it there early.

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Speaker 4: That I think is a far bigger risk than valley

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Speaker 4: host not being able to hit him, which is the

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Speaker 4: other thing we need to accomplish when looking for overs.

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Speaker 4: With all that said, he's been knocked out just once

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Speaker 4: in his career, which dates back to twenty eleven, pretty

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Speaker 4: much the only dude not exactly but very close who

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Speaker 4: went to a decision with Iliotia not all that long ago,

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Speaker 4: which is pretty impressive given what ili has done since then.

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Speaker 4: So I think he'll be okay here. If it does

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Speaker 4: end in knockout, I think it's more valay hosts overwhelming

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Speaker 4: him and wearing him down third, fourth, fifth round. So

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Speaker 4: my other if you want a fun little sprinkle is

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Speaker 4: valley host four, Valley hos five. You know, vallet host

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Speaker 4: knockout and over SGP on draftings is one way to

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Speaker 4: do that, because if you do some of the split

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Speaker 4: round plots that include a decision, you don't get a

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Speaker 4: good price. If you do over two and a half,

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Speaker 4: over three and a half and add the knockout method,

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Speaker 4: you can get some pretty big numbers on there by

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Speaker 4: playing with it, So mess around with those if you

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Speaker 4: want something a little bit more exciting. But yeah, I

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Speaker 4: like the prop market. I've got him projected mid eighties,

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Speaker 4: which is right in line with draftings. There are other

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Speaker 4: places that are offering a much slower number, so shout

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Speaker 4: out to whoever set that on DraftKings this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I believe the over three and a half is favored,

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Speaker 1: but the ends inside the distance is also favored, so

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Speaker 1: books are giving you that round four round five finish.

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Speaker 1: Valaos is kind of short for his round four round

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Speaker 1: five odds about plus eight fifty and ten to one, respectively,

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Speaker 1: So I think the knockout co Company point, I'm certainly

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Speaker 1: sticking with the koprop. I think Emmett is drawing dead

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Speaker 1: to a ko a little bit here himself. Billy, I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure if you agree. The only way he isn't

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Speaker 1: is if he's able to wrestle successfully and get Valley

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Speaker 1: Hos down. And the other point I wanted to make

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Speaker 1: is that Vallejos gives me some vibes of pyotr Jan's style,

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Speaker 1: particularly in how he may approach a five round fight,

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Speaker 1: seeing the way he approached round one against Giga, which

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Speaker 1: he dropped unanimously. I think potentially extending out to a

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Speaker 1: five round fight, will certainly remain patient, and there's a

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Speaker 1: chance he may get a better live number on Vallet

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Speaker 1: Hose after round one. So just to those two points,

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Speaker 1: Billy the live market after round one on Ballet House.

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Speaker 1: But then also Emmett's ability or his need to wrestle

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Speaker 1: in this fight, what do you think about those?

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Speaker 4: I don't know that he necessarily needs to wrestle, because

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Speaker 4: he's got that, you know, the power is the last

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Speaker 4: thing to go is they say he's always got a

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Speaker 4: puncher's chance the longer it lands on the feet. It's

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Speaker 4: not like vallet Hoos is untouchable. You know, he's absorbed

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Speaker 4: his fair share of shots because he's willing to stand

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Speaker 4: in there and trade with you against the guy as

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Speaker 4: old as I met. You know, the odds of those

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Speaker 4: strikes landing for him obviously go down. Just the reaction

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Speaker 4: time and the quickness isn't there compared to someone like

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Speaker 4: Gan Silva who he fought on Contender Series or whomever.

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Speaker 4: With that said, he could still land one. But yeah,

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Speaker 4: he should wrestle. I don't know that he will or

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Speaker 4: has the ability to do so successfully, and the live

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Speaker 4: will be interesting. I want to see how books handle it,

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Speaker 4: because they've seemed to catch on a little bit better

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Speaker 4: in terms of setting live lines lately. But if they're

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Speaker 4: assuming that one guy has a bunch of five round

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Speaker 4: experience and one guy doesn't, and thus they shade the

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Speaker 4: live lines towards Emmett, to your point, I think that

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Speaker 4: could actually give us a better line. So kind of

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Speaker 4: depends on how the books handle it. Sometimes they just

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Speaker 4: seem to go this guy one round, one shift the

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Speaker 4: lines ex percent that way, call it a day. They

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Speaker 4: might galaxy brand themselves here if they try to adjust

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Speaker 4: it towards the guy with five round experience.

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Speaker 3: But we'll see.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree. I think Emmet's substantial five round

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Speaker 1: experience not only in the UFC, but he also had

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Speaker 1: one fight that went to the fifth round that he

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Speaker 1: believe he finished regionally, and then another that was scheduled

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Speaker 1: for five rounds regionally as well, So plenty of training

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Speaker 1: for an actual in cage five round experience for Emmett.

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Speaker 1: This is Vallejos's first five private around task, but it

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Speaker 1: does seem like he should have this style to be

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Speaker 1: able to handle those additional minutes if they are necessary,

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Speaker 1: which the line certainly implies they might be, So move

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Speaker 1: on to a fight of the night, the co Madement

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Speaker 1: between Amanda Lemosh at plus one sixty and Gillian Robertson

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Speaker 1: at about minus one ninety. This fight was previously booked

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Speaker 1: and then canceled. A Billy and I are on opposite

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Speaker 1: size of this one. I think we're gonna have a

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Speaker 1: lot of agreement throughout the rest of this podcast. But

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Speaker 1: going head to head here, I'm on the dog a

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Speaker 1: Lemos at about plus one seventy. I mak her closer

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Speaker 1: to plus one forty. I think you could better down

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Speaker 1: to about plus one point fifty. It's a very binary fight.

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Speaker 1: Lemosh is eight years older, she is the better striker,

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Speaker 1: and my main takeaway for my main argument here is

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Speaker 1: that I think she just denied a better wrestler in

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Speaker 1: Tatiana Suarez from getting the positions that Tatiana wanted to

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Speaker 1: get to. Robertson is a more effective top game than Tatiana,

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Speaker 1: but she is not as good of a wrestler, and

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Speaker 1: I think Lemosh certainly is the chenance to deny those takedowns,

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Speaker 1: and if she does, I think she's going to hurt

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Speaker 1: Robertson pretty consistently on the feet, if not finish the fight.

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Speaker 1: The other method as well, that does lean into the

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Speaker 1: underdog here. Very good guillotine for Lemos as well, so

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Speaker 1: on takedown entries for Robertson, I could see her potentially

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Speaker 1: putting her head in a dangerous pop, but Billy's going

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Speaker 1: to go with the favorite Jillian Robertson. Billy, any thoughts

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Speaker 1: to betting her subprop here or her inside the distance

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Speaker 1: as opposed to laying juice, And then how do you

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Speaker 1: view the live market maybe playing after this fight too?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I mentioned both of those in the full breakdown of

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Speaker 4: this very interestingly or perhaps appropriately. She has ten career

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Speaker 4: finishes and three are submissions and seven are knockouts, and

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Speaker 4: they have submission at plus three hundred ando plus seven hundred,

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Speaker 4: so they're pretty much write a line with what I

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Speaker 4: view is the probability there. I do have a hot

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Speaker 4: take for this fight that you referenced with the Tatiana Suarez.

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Speaker 4: I think Jillian Robertson is the best MMA wrestler at

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Speaker 4: one point fifteen. She would definitely lose a freestyle to

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Speaker 4: Tatiana Suarez. I'm not saying that her ability to blend

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Speaker 4: the strikes and do that I think is better than Suarez,

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Speaker 4: who is just so blatant in her shot attemps, like

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Speaker 4: she's I have switched into wrestling mode. Everyone sees it

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Speaker 4: be ready to sprawl. She's a little bit different than

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Speaker 4: like seamlessly blending into those And Robertson does a lot

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Speaker 4: of submission grappling too, which helps you practice that to

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Speaker 4: an extent. Obviously there's no strikes, but you also have

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Speaker 4: to watch out for submissions where it's different than just

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Speaker 4: pure wrestling where you're just trying to get the takedown.

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Speaker 4: And with all that said, Tatiana Suarez got three takedowns

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Speaker 4: and nine minutes of control time on Amanda lay motion

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Speaker 4: in that flight, and we viewed that as like a

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Speaker 4: massive failure for Suarez. So that point brings me to

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Speaker 4: my bigger point and why I ultimately landed on the

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Speaker 4: favorite is Lamos doesn't try to get up. She just

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Speaker 4: tries relatively low percentage submissions from the bottom because it

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Speaker 4: has worked for her a couple times and it's been

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Speaker 4: like just enough to keep her going and committed to that.

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Speaker 4: She has the guillotine you reference against Karate High, and

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Speaker 4: then another submission against Miranda Granger, and just like those two,

248
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Speaker 4: in her almost ten year USC run has been just

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Speaker 4: enough where she's committed to that. And she is so

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Speaker 4: strong and so powerful that if she just worked get

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Speaker 4: ups and just pretended jiu jitsu wasn't real, like Derek Lewis,

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Speaker 4: I think she'd be much better. I don't see her

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Speaker 4: at thirty eight all of a sudden doing that, though,

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Speaker 4: so I'm.

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Speaker 3: Leaning towards Robertson. I like that.

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Speaker 4: I was looking at some takedown props. The problem is,

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Speaker 4: if Lamos doesn't get up, you can only get so

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Speaker 4: many takedowns, so that makes that one tricky. You almost

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Speaker 4: need a fighter, you know, you need the Morob style

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Speaker 4: fight where the opponent can get up and give you

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Speaker 4: more chances. Robertson's probably only gonna are gonna get exactly

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Speaker 4: three takedowns here, She's gonna get one.

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Speaker 1: I'd bet over two and a half, but I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: bet over three and a half.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I didn't see lines before we did this.

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure if they're up yet, but like the

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Speaker 4: overwhelmingly likeliest answer, there is exactly three. Let's see if

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Speaker 4: they put it up yet, they have over two and

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Speaker 4: a half at minus one thirty five kind of like that.

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Speaker 4: I'd prefer under three and a half. Honestly, my issue

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Speaker 4: with the over two and a half is that she

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Speaker 4: might finish it. She's very aggressive with the top game.

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Speaker 4: She's like a tiny Canadian Dagistani, Like she just gets

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Speaker 4: on top, gets a good position that hits you, and

275
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Speaker 4: if a submission comes up, she'll take it. But she's

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Speaker 4: not diving off for armbars or crazy stuff, like she

277
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Speaker 4: wants to hurt you and if that opens up a submission, great,

278
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Speaker 4: If not, she'll continue to hurt you. And that's been

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Speaker 4: the big switch on this wind streak she's on where

280
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Speaker 4: she's not grappling for its own sake. She's grappling to

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Speaker 4: get to a position to beat you up and then

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Speaker 4: take what's there. So I like just kind of the

283
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Speaker 4: fight IQ and the game plan of Robertson enough that

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Speaker 4: I'm willing to lay the almost two to one. I

285
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Speaker 4: don't love it, Like I fully went into researching this

286
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Speaker 4: breakdown trying to find a better angle, but everything I watched,

287
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Speaker 4: I'm like, man Lamos isn't going to get up, but

288
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Speaker 4: she is relatively hard to submit. Robertson's not overreaching for submission,

289
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Speaker 4: so the subpropit plus three hundred really isn't worth it.

290
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Speaker 4: I think I would actually lead KO if I were

291
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Speaker 4: going to play a method of victory and wanted the

292
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Speaker 4: big price from ground and pound. But I really wish

293
00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:06,520
Speaker 4: you could bet like fight ends via grappling versus fight

294
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Speaker 4: ends via striking, Like if she finishes that it'll be

295
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Speaker 4: with grappling. I just don't know what that will amount to,

296
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Speaker 4: if that makes sense.

297
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Speaker 1: Not the only fight on the card that I think

298
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Speaker 1: could end via positional TKO. That kind of gives me

299
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Speaker 1: the push towards aight ends inside the distance prop as

300
00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:22,920
Speaker 1: opposed to a KO prop. We'll get there in a

301
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Speaker 1: few moments, but first, our consensus favorite underdog from a

302
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Speaker 1: fight we're head to head on to a fight where

303
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Speaker 1: we're incomplete lockstep on Bruno Silva plus one point fifty

304
00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,320
Speaker 1: against Charles Johnson at minus one seventy five Johnson five

305
00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:39,320
Speaker 1: inches taller, five inch reach advantage, but coming off of

306
00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:42,920
Speaker 1: his first career KO loss just five weeks ago, taking

307
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Speaker 1: this bout on relatively short notice, so also losing his

308
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Speaker 1: fight before that was losing the loaner Cavanaugh before knocking

309
00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:52,280
Speaker 1: him out was a huge underdog after the first round

310
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Speaker 1: of unonymous first round for loaner, and if he didn't

311
00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:57,880
Speaker 1: get that KO, I don't think he'd be favored here.

312
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Speaker 1: He'd be entering on a free fight losing streak again

313
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Speaker 1: five weeks off of a KO loss against the fighter

314
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Speaker 1: who is the same age as them. That was probably

315
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Speaker 1: the most shocking part of the breakdown for me. Billy.

316
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Speaker 1: I would have assumed that Silva is like five years

317
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Speaker 1: older than Charles Johnson. They're within six months of each other.

318
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Speaker 1: I believe in terms of age, Silva the better grappler.

319
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Speaker 1: Saw him win his last fight via submission, very impressive win.

320
00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,280
Speaker 1: But I think the grappling upside, in addition to the

321
00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:31,400
Speaker 1: power strikes that could potentially hurt a compromise Johnson, are

322
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,280
Speaker 1: all there for Brunos Silva. I like two plus money

323
00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,760
Speaker 1: vets on this fight. Silva plus one fifty one or

324
00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:40,120
Speaker 1: plus one fifty I make him plus one fifteen, so

325
00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,400
Speaker 1: down to about plus one twenty five, and then the

326
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Speaker 1: fight ends inside the distance. I make minus one twenty six.

327
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Speaker 1: You can get plus one eighteen if you shop around.

328
00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:52,400
Speaker 1: So plus money on Silva and the ends inside a

329
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Speaker 1: distance on a fighter or against the fighter who was

330
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Speaker 1: knocked out five weeks ago. But regardless of that fact,

331
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Speaker 1: I think this is a pretty decent matchup for Bruno

332
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Speaker 1: Silva at plus money, Billy, was it all the knockout

333
00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:09,200
Speaker 1: angle for you, with Johnson potentially being compromised, or if

334
00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:11,600
Speaker 1: this was a fight that had been booked and these

335
00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:13,480
Speaker 1: guys were on a full camp, would you also be

336
00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:14,440
Speaker 1: betting Bruno here too?

337
00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:17,600
Speaker 4: I think, especially at the price I got early in

338
00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:20,000
Speaker 4: the week. Bruno's in my luck ratings as an early bet,

339
00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:22,520
Speaker 4: I would bet him even with a full camp without

340
00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:25,560
Speaker 4: those things. The other bet factor for me is he's

341
00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,040
Speaker 4: won five of his last seven. That is Bruno Silva.

342
00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:31,440
Speaker 4: The two losses are Josh Van current champion, and Manelkop,

343
00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:33,920
Speaker 4: who like probably should have had a few title fights

344
00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:37,360
Speaker 4: at this point if he could stay healthy. And no

345
00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:40,200
Speaker 4: disrespect to the people that Johnson has lost to, but

346
00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,400
Speaker 4: his two last losses are Alex Prez and Rams and Temerov.

347
00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:46,080
Speaker 4: So you know, you tell me who's got the better resume.

348
00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:48,880
Speaker 4: They both actually have the same five and two record

349
00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:52,840
Speaker 4: over their last seven. Just one guy lost to unranked

350
00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:55,520
Speaker 4: fighters and one guy lost to two of the three

351
00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:58,760
Speaker 4: best flyweights in the world and has looked really good

352
00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,960
Speaker 4: in every other performance, finishing every single one of his wins.

353
00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,159
Speaker 4: Charles Johnson did beat Josh Fan we can't ignore that fact.

354
00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,119
Speaker 4: But in two of the wins in that streak he

355
00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:13,280
Speaker 4: was getting kind of dominated and found a knockout. It's

356
00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:15,960
Speaker 4: not luck at this point, right, Like he's got great cardio,

357
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,960
Speaker 4: he trains to do that, but it's not also not

358
00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:21,800
Speaker 4: a great like repeatable process of like I'm just gonna

359
00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:23,679
Speaker 4: get beat up for a while and then Homer Simpson

360
00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:25,520
Speaker 4: my way to a knockout in the second or third

361
00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:28,800
Speaker 4: round against a better striker if he wins it. Here,

362
00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:31,520
Speaker 4: that's probably how it happens again, is he's kind of

363
00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:32,520
Speaker 4: losing and finds it.

364
00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:34,080
Speaker 3: But yeah, my luck ratings.

365
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,679
Speaker 4: I said, I'll take Bruno Silva plus one seventy and

366
00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:39,439
Speaker 4: leave a little bit of you know, extra bankroll on

367
00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:42,440
Speaker 4: the table to bet Bruno Silva finish. So we're in

368
00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:46,040
Speaker 4: lockstep other last little sneaky conspiracy here. I do think

369
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:48,040
Speaker 4: we get a little bit of price movement from people

370
00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:51,480
Speaker 4: confusing him with the now departed middleweight Bruno Silva, who

371
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,680
Speaker 4: finished his UFC career like zero to five and openly

372
00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:56,600
Speaker 4: admitted he didn't want to be there before he got

373
00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,240
Speaker 4: knocked out the last time. This is a different Bruno Silva.

374
00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 4: He wants to be there, tries real hard. So if

375
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:04,600
Speaker 4: there's any confusion there pushing the market at all, that's

376
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:06,600
Speaker 4: just free ev so I'll take it.

377
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:10,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is tiny flyway Bruno Silva, who trains with

378
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:13,840
Speaker 1: the Pitpol brothers for the majority of their careers, not

379
00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:17,359
Speaker 1: the middleweight Bruno Silva who lost to Potan a very

380
00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 1: competitive fight with Potan.

381
00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:22,520
Speaker 3: Actually if I fell apart though, I completely.

382
00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:24,720
Speaker 1: Fell apart after that. UFC signed him for quite a

383
00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,240
Speaker 1: bit of money. He had a very decorated record. I

384
00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:29,640
Speaker 1: think he was fighting over in Russia. They brought him over.

385
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,280
Speaker 1: He was supposed to be a big time signing knockout

386
00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:36,199
Speaker 1: artist for them and extremely disappointing run. I believe I

387
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:39,680
Speaker 1: cash a Gerald Miershart five to one ticket against him

388
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:43,360
Speaker 1: in a fight that was a good cash So definitely

389
00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:45,560
Speaker 1: made some money on Bruno Silva's run, but I'm sure

390
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:48,800
Speaker 1: well he did too, but definitely didn't get a second

391
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:52,560
Speaker 1: contract out of it. Move on to another underdog that

392
00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:54,840
Speaker 1: I potentially like for this weekend. I'm curious if I

393
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 1: can get Billy on board for this one. I think

394
00:18:56,520 --> 00:19:01,639
Speaker 1: the line is certainly wide between Bolaji Oki and Manuel Sosa.

395
00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:04,800
Speaker 1: Sosa about minus two seventy ok, I got it plus

396
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,280
Speaker 1: two point forty. It's a lightweight bout is choose to

397
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:12,919
Speaker 1: end inside the distance. I make ok about plus one seventy,

398
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,320
Speaker 1: so I take him to roughly plus two hundred or better.

399
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:17,200
Speaker 1: But I also like the ends inside of the distance

400
00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:19,359
Speaker 1: here too. I make that closer to minus two hundred,

401
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,840
Speaker 1: and I took minus one sixty five. Sosa coming off

402
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 1: of Contender Series well good and well powerful in that matchup,

403
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 1: but did get out grappled to a degree there. That's

404
00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:33,760
Speaker 1: not going to happen here with Blagi Oki. But Oki

405
00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:36,800
Speaker 1: also has looked bad when he's gotten out grappled. He's

406
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:40,959
Speaker 1: a very powerful striker who seems like he's a bit

407
00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,520
Speaker 1: green in the other area of MMA. So to me,

408
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:45,679
Speaker 1: this is going to be a striker versus striker matchup

409
00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 1: where Sosa is probably a little bit more durable. But

410
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:52,440
Speaker 1: I think Oki definitely has the power to cause some

411
00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:54,119
Speaker 1: problems that I think this could end up being a

412
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,440
Speaker 1: swinging match that ends in a knockout. Either way, and

413
00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 1: if it ends up extending Oki has much more UFC experience,

414
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:01,960
Speaker 1: it could be the guy who settles in just a

415
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,359
Speaker 1: little bit better. The cardio hasn't looked great, but he

416
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:06,639
Speaker 1: is still young, and I think a lot of times

417
00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,240
Speaker 1: you see guys improve in terms of their gas tank

418
00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:12,160
Speaker 1: when they're on the younger end, but also the market adjustment.

419
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:15,040
Speaker 1: He closed minus two hundred against Tammykwumba, minus one ninety

420
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,000
Speaker 1: against Chris Duncan, who's gone on quite a run, minus

421
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 1: one eighty five against Al Swally, minus five to seventy

422
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 1: five against Aswhaal, And he was plus one point thirty

423
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,560
Speaker 1: five in his loss to Mason Jones. So belaji Oki

424
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 1: getting a number north of two to one here against

425
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:33,159
Speaker 1: the fighter coming off of Contender Series. Billy, what we

426
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:36,359
Speaker 1: were thoughts on Manuel Sosa on Contender Series and how

427
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:38,199
Speaker 1: do you view him coming out of that as a

428
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:39,360
Speaker 1: prospect in this division?

429
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:42,199
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was just rescanning my article in that I

430
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:45,280
Speaker 4: actually picked his opponent to submit him at plus nine

431
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:45,640
Speaker 4: to one.

432
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:47,920
Speaker 3: Okay, I'm in that fight just.

433
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,200
Speaker 4: As kind of a I officially thought Suso was gonna win,

434
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 4: but I picked his opponent to just based on the

435
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 4: odds because his grappling is terrible, which, yeah, I didn't

436
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 4: arrive at this to myself. But if Oki loses because

437
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 4: he gets out grappled and he's fighting a guy who

438
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:06,159
Speaker 4: also can't grapple, it, you know, kind of worse for

439
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,240
Speaker 4: flipping coins here. I really did like the striking we

440
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:12,439
Speaker 4: saw from the Brazilian. But yeah, I mean, do you

441
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:14,680
Speaker 4: want to just get in there and flip coins at

442
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 4: this price? You definitely want the underdog, So I.

443
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:17,879
Speaker 3: Am with you.

444
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:19,640
Speaker 4: I'm not sure i'll tail it myself, but I think

445
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 4: it makes a ton of sense just based on the

446
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 4: logic of the way that Oki loses isn't going to

447
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:26,680
Speaker 4: happen here, So let's see what happens when he's allowed

448
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 4: to strike.

449
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're both, they're both competing in their strongest area,

450
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,280
Speaker 1: and we'll see if one of them ends up implementing

451
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 1: the grappling. I would say it's probably unlikely. But if

452
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 1: that's the case, then I certainly want the guy north

453
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 1: of two to one, and I think it does innate.

454
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 1: Have to remind people we're in the APEX. The APEX

455
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 1: finished rates are about ten percent higher than they are

456
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 1: in the full sized cage, So I'm going to be

457
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 1: on a lot more finished props ands inside the distance

458
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,640
Speaker 1: props in general when we're at the Apex, and this

459
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 1: is certainly one of the fights that I targeted from

460
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,359
Speaker 1: that perspective. Before we move on to our top props

461
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:00,680
Speaker 1: for this week, If you're on Twitter, a great new feature.

462
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465
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469
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470
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471
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472
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480
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 1: crown is yours. All right, Billy, Let's move on our

481
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:53,719
Speaker 1: top props for this week. I believe we are aligned,

482
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,159
Speaker 1: mostly aligned on one fight. We're betting it in slightly

483
00:22:56,160 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 1: different ways. That's marwe Rahiki coming off of contenders, I

484
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:03,400
Speaker 1: believe himself against Harry Hardwick. I didn't watch Rihiki's fight.

485
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,880
Speaker 1: I did watch Hardwick's last fight. I also watched Hardwick's

486
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 1: comments prior to that about Anthony Smith where he talked

487
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,679
Speaker 1: about Anthony Smith going down to leg kicks and then

488
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,880
Speaker 1: he himself, of course, was snake bit by leg Kicks.

489
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 1: Karma always finds a way. But we both like Rihiki

490
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 1: to finish this fight. I would imagine you're taking a

491
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 1: slightly different approach. You're taking fight doesn't start round three.

492
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: I'm taking Rihiki inside the distance at plus money here

493
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: doesn't start round three is minus one twenty five. You

494
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 1: obviously get both fighters looped in with that. So where

495
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 1: do you see Hardwicke's potential finishing upside in this matchup,

496
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 1: and how do you view Rihiki's potential at the UFC level.

497
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I see Hardwicke's the same way I

498
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:45,919
Speaker 4: see anyone against Rijiki is dude has no interest in

499
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,959
Speaker 4: defense if you just want a good time. His Contender

500
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 4: Series fight was awesome. Ended in the middle of the

501
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 4: second round. Both guys landed two knockdowns. I said it

502
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,200
Speaker 4: in my breakdown. I was skimming that one today as well.

503
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 4: Of Rihiki that like just all gas, no breaks, He's

504
00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:02,400
Speaker 4: just throwing everything, doesn't care if he gets hit. Kind

505
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 4: Of a long, skinny dude too, which you worry about

506
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 4: the durability between those two ideas, right, Like, you're a long,

507
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 4: skinny guy chin kind of up getting hit a lot

508
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 4: and probably cutting a lot of weight because of your height.

509
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 4: It's not a game I think you can play for

510
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:20,199
Speaker 4: a long time. He will probably as he progresses in

511
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 4: his career and fights tough for people to continue to

512
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 4: shore that up. With that said, athletically, he's just leagues

513
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 4: ahead of Harry Hardwick. Both Hardwrock brothers are technically very sound,

514
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 4: very good boxing. They just don't have any like plus

515
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 4: plus athletic ability. In there that you kind of need

516
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:37,959
Speaker 4: at this level, and we see that with a lot

517
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 4: of KGE warriors. Guys honestly where skills wise they're there,

518
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 4: they just don't have that little bit to take him

519
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 4: over the top. I don't think he has it here.

520
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 4: But given the similarity in price I'm getting for either

521
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 4: fight or in the first two rounds compared to Rihiki

522
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:55,159
Speaker 4: inside the distance, and his complete disinterest in defending his

523
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,200
Speaker 4: head at any point in any of his fights, I'll

524
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 4: just I'll sleep better knowing I have that one. I

525
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 4: also just don't see this ending in the third round,

526
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 4: because Rihiki does not seem like a guy who can

527
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 4: fight that long, Like someone's gonna be knocked out in

528
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 4: the pace, and like the wildness he fights with just

529
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 4: feels like you can't do that for fifteen minutes.

530
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 3: Maybe he can.

531
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 4: I don't think he has any decisions on his record.

532
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,959
Speaker 4: I'll look right now. Yeah, every fight is ended inside

533
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 4: the distance, although one of him was in round four

534
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 4: of a regional about so can go past three? Theoretically,

535
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 4: I think he's gonna be super amped up. He's gonna

536
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 4: come out fly and jumping around, probably be the one

537
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,439
Speaker 4: to land but it wouldn't shock me if Hardwork slips one.

538
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 1: Through Spilly on fight doesn't start round three at minus

539
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 1: one twenty five, I'm on the ends inside the distance

540
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:45,879
Speaker 1: for Rahiki at plus money even money, I make that

541
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,160
Speaker 1: about minus one ten, so I wouldn't go much past

542
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:50,880
Speaker 1: even money. I'd probably take it to minus one oh five.

543
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,399
Speaker 1: Jose Delgada around minus three sixty against andre a Touchy

544
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:58,439
Speaker 1: Pheey at plus two ninety. I think Delgado ends up

545
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 1: finishing this fight on the feet. I make a minus

546
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 1: one seventy five it went inside the distance, though, would

547
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 1: take it at minus one fifty up to about minus

548
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 1: one sixty five. Also view him as a potential parlay

549
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 1: piece this weekend. I make his money line north of

550
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,120
Speaker 1: minus five hundred. You can get him at minus three sixty.

551
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 1: Talk about the other potential pieces you could combine him with.

552
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 1: But Philly's best chance here probably to go for takedowns.

553
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,120
Speaker 1: Got a really nasty knees up the middle. He can

554
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 1: look to counter those with. Philly's also eight years older,

555
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 1: is taking a ton of damage. He's probably the more

556
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 1: well rounded fighter, but he does not absorb the damage

557
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,199
Speaker 1: that well anymore in his career. I think he's going

558
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 1: to get hit with a few big punches and end

559
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 1: up crumbling to Delgado's power. Billy, was it Delgado against

560
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 1: Andre Philly under a Touchy Philly one of your favorite

561
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:50,640
Speaker 1: fighter nicknames? Are you interested at all in the underdog here?

562
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:54,159
Speaker 1: Do you agree that Delgado is likely to get the finish?

563
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, it almost feels disrespectful to Phelly give him the

564
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 4: quality of competition. He's fat, but I look back at

565
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 4: his record. You know, he's two and two over his

566
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 4: last four. The two wins were both split decisions. And

567
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 4: I don't even remember who we were talking about. We

568
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 4: were talking about somebody else earlier this week offline, and

569
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:11,919
Speaker 4: I said, like, their ceiling at this point is a

570
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 4: close decision where there.

571
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 1: Is Yeah, the as Eric Andrews fight, we'll get there.

572
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, same deal.

573
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 4: But like, if your ceiling is a split decision, that

574
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 4: like maybe you don't really deserve and your floor is

575
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 4: just getting obliterated in various ways. Right, He's been submitted

576
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 4: and knocked out recently, which isn't great.

577
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 3: It's hard to bet on you.

578
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 4: Wish I would have jumped on Delgado early, like the

579
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 4: topology line, which is really early. Look ahead says minus

580
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 4: two sixty five. I wrote down minus three ten Monday,

581
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 4: and it's like as high as minus three eighty now,

582
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 4: so would have been some free CLV on that, But

583
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,640
Speaker 4: like how great does CLV feel when you're laying three

584
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 4: to one anyway, So like your angle, I think that's

585
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 4: probably the sharper way to play it if you're going

586
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 4: to bet against him, because Pheelly gets finished when he loses.

587
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:56,199
Speaker 3: That's just what's happened.

588
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: Umar c about minus two fifty against Eon. Kudalaba around

589
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,359
Speaker 1: plus two hundred cs, three inches taller, has it aided

590
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 1: to reach advantage is two years younger. I thought the

591
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:08,680
Speaker 1: age gap would be a little bit bigger here sees

592
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,119
Speaker 1: around thirty I believe, so, you know, in terms of

593
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 1: prospect development, probably nearer to a finished product than he

594
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:20,959
Speaker 1: is on the development track. Haven't been ultra impressed by

595
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 1: what I've seen from him, and Kudolaba is a guy

596
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 1: typically bet throughout his career. But I do think in

597
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 1: the grappling Kudlaba is likely covered here see just the

598
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:32,120
Speaker 1: bigger man, but also probably the better grappler as well.

599
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 1: Even though Kudlaba comes from a sambo background, as a

600
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 1: pretty decorated career. I just think sees athleticism and physicality

601
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 1: is going to end up winning the fight. Has controlled

602
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of his grappling time in the UFC,

603
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 1: Koudlaba is fifty four percent. Obviously difference in the amount

604
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 1: of the amount of time they've fought the relative opponents

605
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 1: they fought, but I do think that is relatively likely

606
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: the way the fight goes down. I do project value

607
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 1: on Sea as a piece as well. I just his

608
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 1: his path to winning rounds winning covering his line I

609
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 1: feel like is relatively limited value on goes to decision

610
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 1: for him to win by decision, I should say I

611
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 1: actually prefer seeing the over one and a half rounds

612
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 1: at plus one thirty six. I think that's his best

613
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 1: win condition. Kudulabo usually gases out my the midway points

614
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 1: of his fight. I think you could take c live

615
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 1: after round one as well. There's a chance Kudolaba is

616
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 1: able to keep things on the feet early ends up

617
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 1: landing the more damaging shots, But I think See will

618
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 1: get the fight to the ground or where he wants

619
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 1: it later on and end up winning either or late

620
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 1: by late finisher by decision to See in the over

621
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 1: one and a half rounds at plus one thirty six,

622
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 1: you could also take a look at his decision prop

623
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 1: or his money on his potential parlay a piece. So

624
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit more hesitant about that one. Billy,

625
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 1: how do you break down this fight? And he bets

626
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 1: he liked for it.

627
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think if you wanted to get fun ky,

628
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,959
Speaker 4: you could almost also do the inverse of that and

629
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 4: take Ewon in round one or Ewon and under one

630
00:29:57,240 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 4: and a half. He's just like an agent of chaos.

631
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 4: He just comes out throw stuff at the wall, and

632
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 4: every once in a while it works. And if you're

633
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 4: someone who wants to be patient and fight a measured

634
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,239
Speaker 4: pace and someone just blitzes at you right away, like

635
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 4: he's gonna catch that every once in a while and

636
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 4: it's not gonna be a lot. But I mean, what

637
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 4: are his round one on it's probably plus seven hundred

638
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 4: or something, so like I think he gets that enough

639
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 4: to cover that line. Yeah, plus eight fifty in round

640
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 4: one at draftings of his last Wednesday, has five first

641
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 4: round finishes and I believe two split decisions. I'm guessing

642
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 4: I'm not looking at the round by round here. I'm

643
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 4: guessing both of those split decisions where he just completely

644
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 4: collapsed in round three competitive round two Cutelaba run one round.

645
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 1: Tight, so he's got a ten eight like round three

646
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 1: against him before as well. He definitely drops off of

647
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,959
Speaker 1: the cliff. The comp is white, Ryan Span I believe

648
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 1: would be the closest I could make for him.

649
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 3: That's fair.

650
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, a good round one fighter tends to just drop

651
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: off of the cliff in the final seven and a

652
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 1: half minutes. Definitely lie bet for c Maybe not even

653
00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 1: after round one. Maybe part way through round two could

654
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 1: be the angle to play it.

655
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 3: Mick oral by mark way through round one like part.

656
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 1: With Yeah, that could be the cases.

657
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 4: Well, those are the annoying ones like he lands a

658
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 4: big knockdown or something but can't quite finish it and

659
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 4: you got to rush to get the bed end. But

660
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 4: that might actually be when you get your shot, because

661
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 4: if he doesn't finish him with the first big thing

662
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 4: he does, he's probably gonna lose.

663
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good shout out by you midway through

664
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 1: round one after a knockdown. Could even take a look

665
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 1: at the uh the Rahiki Harry Hardwick fight for an

666
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 1: angle like that as well. If Hiki ends up eating

667
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 1: a big shot. We've seen him recover and work his

668
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 1: way back into the fight. Two to move on a

669
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 1: mire to back Oral by a about minus two seventy

670
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 1: five against Chris Curtis at plus two twenty five. There

671
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 1: should be a banger or By coming up from one

672
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 1: to fifty five Curtis coming down from one eighty five,

673
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 1: But the measurables between these two are pretty comparable. Curious

674
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 1: how you view those respective weight moves, Billy, considering we're

675
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 1: normally very negative on fighters moving down and wait late

676
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 1: in their careers, and Curtis is also talk about the

677
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 1: fact that those cuts to one seventy have drained him

678
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 1: in the past, So I don't necessarily love it. He

679
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,480
Speaker 1: is the better boxer here, Orby just eat shots all day.

680
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 1: But Curtis is thirty nine years old. I think he's

681
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 1: aging out in the sport. Two degree of enjoyed betting

682
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 1: on many of his fights, enjoyed watching a lot of

683
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 1: his fights, and cashing hims an underdog. But I do

684
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 1: think Orlby's pace is going to eventually wear on Curtis.

685
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 1: I think Oralby not cutting weight is going to make

686
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 1: him probably even more powerful. And the pace is just

687
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 1: going to be something Curtis is not able to deal

688
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 1: with orlby averaging I believe it's nine takedowns per five

689
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 1: minutes a distance. It's it's yeah, nine takedowns per five

690
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 1: minutes a distance, so not quite that like crazy elite pace,

691
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: but normally the guys who you consider reliable grapplers, it's

692
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 1: one takedown attempt per minute. It's five takedown attempts for

693
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 1: five minutes. He's doubled that, essentially seventy nine percent control

694
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 1: rate just eighteen percent for Curtis. Curtis is very good

695
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 1: takedown defense. Historically, we've started to see cracks in it,

696
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 1: though in his recent fights. I think he's just losing

697
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 1: the ability to explode out of them as he reaches.

698
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 1: You're forty years old, so no value on me for

699
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 1: the money line. Necessarily, I do make oral by inside

700
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 1: the distance plus one fifty, though I got as high

701
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 1: as plus one seventy five. And this is a good

702
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 1: time to shout out. Books offer you. Most books offer

703
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 1: you fighter to finish or the double chance props, fighter

704
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 1: to win by KO or submission, but a lot of

705
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 1: those books also offer you the ability to place the

706
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 1: same game parlay with the money line and the fight

707
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 1: to end inside the distance and at the same book,

708
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 1: I found discrepancies between the finish prop and between the

709
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 1: same game parlay, and oftentimes the same game parlay actually

710
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 1: offers you better odds than the finish props too. So

711
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 1: just this is just your weekly advice corner for line

712
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 1: shopping around at books. There's there's sometimes multiple ways to

713
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 1: bet the same outcome, so just give yourself the opportunity

714
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 1: to potentially get a better number. I was able to

715
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 1: hear by doing that, but Oral by inside the distance

716
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 1: is the play down to about plus one fifty in

717
00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 1: this fight, Billy Orby against Kurt is one of the

718
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 1: better fights on this card in my opinion from an

719
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 1: action standpoint, How do you see this one playing up?

720
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:08,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's funny you mentioned he's fighting in middleweight dropping down,

721
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 4: because I was like, I swear I've heard that somewhere before.

722
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 3: It was his last fight.

723
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 4: Oral last first fight at Walter Waite was against another

724
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 4: aging middleweight who tried to save his career by dropping

725
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:20,759
Speaker 4: down and Jack heer Manson who got pretty badly knocked out.

726
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,680
Speaker 4: I don't think Curtis's durveability has fallen to the point

727
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:28,760
Speaker 4: that her Manson's has. Interesting though, just since we're talking stats,

728
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:30,840
Speaker 4: I looked this up real quick. Chris Curtis has eleven

729
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 4: fights in the UFC. You want to guess how many

730
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 4: takedowns he's attempted himself.

731
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:36,959
Speaker 3: Zero zero.

732
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:40,839
Speaker 4: He is not even pretending, hasn't even mixed in one.

733
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 4: As far as I can tell.

734
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: On UFC, I knew zero wasn't even a guest I could.

735
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 1: I knew where the question is leading, but I was like, no,

736
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 1: it's zero, yeah.

737
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:50,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, which you know, shout out to the Action man.

738
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 4: We love him here at Action Network. Also, great dude

739
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 4: used to train near me at Vision Dayton in Ohio

740
00:34:55,880 --> 00:35:00,080
Speaker 4: before he moved out to Extreme Couture. Really nice dude.

741
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 4: So which brings me to my point of I, in

742
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,320
Speaker 4: my heart of hearts, don't want to bet against Chris Curtis.

743
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 4: But I also really like Muktabac oral By, so I'm

744
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 4: abstaining for that reason. I think you make a lot

745
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 4: of good points. Curtis has always relied on like a

746
00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:18,919
Speaker 4: boxing style defense that does rely on really good head

747
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 4: movement and reflexes and timing and all of those things.

748
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 4: That are the first thing to go. I'm not super

749
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 4: worried about the weight cut. The way I viewed it

750
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 4: is he never really intended to be a middleweight, Like

751
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 4: he took a short notice fight to get into the

752
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 4: UFC at middleweight and knocked out Phil Hawes in the

753
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 4: first round and just kind of rolled with it. But

754
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 4: I always thought of him as a welterweight, Like he

755
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 4: was always just a welterweight who happened to be doing that.

756
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:43,399
Speaker 4: And then you look up and it's three years later

757
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:46,719
Speaker 4: and he's had a ton of them. Other point, he

758
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 4: had a lot of like lower body injuries. I mean

759
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 4: him and Tron Strickland have over recorded and broadcast these

760
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 4: various injuries to the internet, which is probably not plus

761
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 4: EV for your career. But we've seen a lot of that.

762
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 4: You know, the movement starts to get limited, does at

763
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 4: hamper the takedown defense because you're stepping into range more

764
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 4: than you want to be, or even just pivoting offline

765
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 4: for punches and stuff. I think we're starting to see

766
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 4: all of those things slowly fade. Even though he did

767
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:13,319
Speaker 4: win a split decision over Max Griffin in his last fight,

768
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 4: that was that was age appropriate matchmaking, whereas this isn't.

769
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:21,240
Speaker 1: Feature Patrino about minus two to fifty against Steven aspland

770
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,840
Speaker 1: I believe it's the lone heavyweight fight on the card.

771
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 1: Patrino a former two A fiber, he's moved up to heavyweight.

772
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 1: I think he's two and zero was a heavyweight absolutely

773
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 1: muscled out Aspl into a former I believe four hundred

774
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:37,759
Speaker 1: pound man who got himself into shape using cardio kickboxing.

775
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: Very odd physique, but excellent pace, like excellent volume the

776
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 1: longer his fights go. But if you've watched tape, you've

777
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 1: seen him struggle in the grappling and get put flat

778
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 1: on his back, turn to his back or turned to

779
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 1: his stomach to try to get up from his back

780
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 1: and give up the rood naked choke as well. So

781
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 1: definitely a major grappling concern here. It just comes down

782
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 1: to fight i Q essentially for Petrino, because Petrino has

783
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 1: often been a big favorite and failed to do or

784
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 1: take his easiest path to victory. If he proactively grapples here,

785
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,839
Speaker 1: Patrino should be able to get Asplin down, likely find

786
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,720
Speaker 1: the submission. If he doesn't, he may get out volumed

787
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 1: on the feet There's also been some rumors this week

788
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,879
Speaker 1: as well about Patrino having a broken hand. I don't

789
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 1: know if you've heard of those, Billy. That's definitely a

790
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,320
Speaker 1: major concern. The bet that I did make Patrino inside

791
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:26,359
Speaker 1: the distance, I make that about minus one twenty five.

792
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:29,320
Speaker 1: I got minus one of three. I do show value

793
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 1: on his money line, considering the broken hand stuff and

794
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:35,360
Speaker 1: the volume disparity, I would much rather have Patrino finish

795
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:37,799
Speaker 1: prop as opposed to banking on him winning decision here.

796
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 1: Did you hear about the hand stuff? And beyond that,

797
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 1: did you have any other bets or leans to this fight.

798
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 4: I've not heard about the hand stuff. He can submit

799
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 4: Steven aspland with a broken hand, though I'm not super

800
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,359
Speaker 4: worried about that if he takes him down. The one

801
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 4: angle I actually do like here is potentially asked him live,

802
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 4: which I feel even better about now that you mentioned

803
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,320
Speaker 4: the broken hand thing. One will just have the formation,

804
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:02,800
Speaker 4: like if he's clearly not throwing one hand sometimes you

805
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 4: can tell pretty fast, so that would be nice to know.

806
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 4: But also he calls himself fat Max, Fat Max Holloway.

807
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 3: I didn't make that up.

808
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:13,360
Speaker 4: I'm not trying to insult him, and he fights like it,

809
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 4: like he's the only giant heavyweight I've ever seen just

810
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 4: pit or pat his way. And it kind of works

811
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:21,439
Speaker 4: better when you're huge, because your punch is hit hard

812
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 4: without you having Like if you're a dude that size,

813
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 4: you don't need to throw with everything you've got. You

814
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 4: don't need to be Francis and Ganna to put people out.

815
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 4: If you just touch guys a lot of times with big,

816
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 4: giant fists, it'll work. And it does work for him,

817
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:36,439
Speaker 4: but it also allows him to keep his pace up

818
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 4: throughout a longer period because he's not overloading on stuff.

819
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,200
Speaker 4: Also not really relevant to this fight. I just find

820
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,040
Speaker 4: it funny. I was looking at Petrino's record trying to

821
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 4: figure out when he went heavyweight. He's got Austin Lane

822
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 4: on there, and then they just switched weight classes after

823
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 4: that fight, like they both just decided. I guess before

824
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 4: the fight for Petrino and all these guys at two

825
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 4: o five and two sixty five are just convinced that

826
00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 4: the title is just in whatever weight I'm not currently in.

827
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:04,760
Speaker 4: And the real scary thing is once these middleweights figure

828
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 4: out to come up to two five for the talent

829
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 4: pool is so much thinner. I think RDR said he's

830
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 4: going up to two o five, Like, those are the

831
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 4: guys who need to be moving up, jumping between two

832
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 4: five and two sixty five. Outside of the top few

833
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 4: guys are kind of the same thing in the lower

834
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 4: end of the rankings. Some of these more skilled middleweights

835
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 4: coming up though, is going to be a big problem

836
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 4: for the big boys.

837
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 1: Just do you need to recap that we've used the

838
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 1: phrases touchy pheey, hand stuff and touch his guys all

839
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 1: within the past thirty minutes of this podcast. So we're

840
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:37,720
Speaker 1: continuing on with the Damian Pinos legend as we progress

841
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 1: here into a UFC Apex card. What just we got

842
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 1: to keep the fun going.

843
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,279
Speaker 3: I also talk about it. It's not a great card, guys.

844
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 1: No, it's not a great Brad Taveras against Eric Anders

845
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 1: a potential double retirement fight here. It is certainly a

846
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 1: retirement fight for Eric Anders. There's rumors about Tavera's potentially

847
00:39:57,200 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 1: retiring too. Does have a bigger crowd in the Apex

848
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 1: than they would have previously with the new stands in there,

849
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 1: so hopefully able to get some friends and family in

850
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:09,879
Speaker 1: the building for his potential retirement fight at home. Now

851
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:12,720
Speaker 1: I do show value here on Tavera's to win by decision.

852
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 1: I make that about plus one seventy. You can get

853
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 1: as high as plus two hundred. If you were to

854
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 1: just take though his money line and the fight goes

855
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 1: to distance odds and parlay those together, you would need

856
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 1: plus two twenty five. So I have to project value

857
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:30,839
Speaker 1: both in the Ghost the Decision and also Tavera's individually

858
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 1: money line in order to get at the plus one seventy,

859
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 1: which I do. They're both slight, but there's a bigger

860
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 1: edge on Tavera's by decision and compounding those edges than

861
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 1: there is on playing either his money line or the

862
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 1: Ghost the Decision individually. So more effective striker throughout their

863
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:48,800
Speaker 1: respective careers, outlanding opponents by point four strikes per minute,

864
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 1: Anders getting outlanded by one point eight. Anders, though does

865
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 1: have more power, more likely to get a knockdown of

866
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 1: the parent. He's also the better grappler of the pair two,

867
00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 1: but Tavera's historically great takedown to you found. It just

868
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:03,879
Speaker 1: seems like both of these guys are on their last legs,

869
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:06,959
Speaker 1: and it's a matter I think of if Anders wants

870
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 1: to grapple, then opposed to whether he can grapple, because

871
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 1: I think if he wants to grapple, he may be

872
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 1: able to land takedowns. But I don't think he's going

873
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 1: to in his potential retirement fight. I think these guys

874
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 1: are going to swing it out. So Varia's my decision

875
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 1: A small bet at two to one, I take that

876
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:23,320
Speaker 1: down to about plus one to eighty. Do you have

877
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 1: any bets here, Billy on this potential double retirement bout.

878
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 3: Yeah. I was very interested in Tavarus.

879
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 4: I didn't view him as the overall more skilled. Then

880
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 4: they're both similarly aged and the athleticism has kind of

881
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:39,799
Speaker 4: fallen to similar points. It's interesting though, Anders opened at

882
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:41,800
Speaker 4: like plus one fifteen and his flipped to a favorite.

883
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 4: So I'm just a little bit scared about that line

884
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 4: movement makes me not want to get brand to Varus. Conversely,

885
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:50,200
Speaker 4: if it goes far enough where you're getting big plus

886
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 4: money on Tavrus, I might play him straight up, which

887
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 4: I know isn't doesn't make total sense, but if you

888
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 4: give me a good enough price, I might have to.

889
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 4: At a certain point, I do think he is just

890
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:04,160
Speaker 4: the better overall fighter. Kind of across disciplines historically, and

891
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 4: without being able to say that he's fallen further or

892
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 4: anything like that. I don't know how else to what

893
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:13,319
Speaker 4: else you can what other conclusion you can come to.

894
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 3: I guess the best way to put it. I'm not

895
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:15,879
Speaker 3: super worried.

896
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:17,359
Speaker 4: He gets taken down a ton, and if he does,

897
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 4: he usually gets back up, So then we just have

898
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 4: kind of a sloppy striking match, which in theory for

899
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 4: getting plus money on one guy, that should be the side,

900
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 4: and Tavirus is the more skilled striker.

901
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:33,400
Speaker 1: Be a Mosquito at minus six twenty against Month's Rendon

902
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:37,760
Speaker 1: women's bandonweight fight. Mosquito twenty four titles at the black

903
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 1: belt level in gee championships, and one abillity to quantify

904
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 1: the difference between how gee grappling translates to MMA as

905
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:49,280
Speaker 1: opposed to no gee grappling, but an excellent submission grappler

906
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 1: saw her also in her first fight, just laying a

907
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 1: ton of ground and pound from top position. As well,

908
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 1: Rendon hasn't given up a takedown of the UFC. She also,

909
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 1: though does have a twenty two only one submission loss

910
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 1: to Juliana Miller from a grappling match. I think most

911
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 1: people view the fact that Mosquito is probably just going

912
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:09,279
Speaker 1: to take her down, submit her, and and the fight

913
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 1: relatively quickly. I believe I bet Mosquita to win in

914
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:16,439
Speaker 1: rounds one or two at even money. I just want

915
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 1: to confirm my bet here rounds one or two even money.

916
00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 1: She's finished all of her professional fights within the first

917
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:27,480
Speaker 1: ten minutes, and based upon the typical stylings of jiu

918
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 1: jitsu oriented fighters, I feel like they don't generally have

919
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:32,720
Speaker 1: the cardio to finish their opponents in the third round.

920
00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:35,720
Speaker 1: She though, can clearly do it within the first ten minutes,

921
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:37,720
Speaker 1: so I'd rather have the first ten minutes as opposed

922
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,280
Speaker 1: to laying. I think minus won fifty for her inside

923
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:42,359
Speaker 1: the distance odds. It seemed like a lot more jews

924
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 1: to get the third round involved as well, so Mosquito

925
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 1: even money to finish the fight in the first two

926
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 1: rounds potential parlay piece for me as well. Though, to

927
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:53,840
Speaker 1: round things off with other fights, I make her closer

928
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:55,720
Speaker 1: to minus eight hundred you can get minus six hundred,

929
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 1: so not adding a ton to the parlays, but definitely

930
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 1: looks a bit undervalue here. Bill thoughts on this fight

931
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 1: thoughts a mesquita and how quick you might finish it.

932
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:06,959
Speaker 4: Yeah, you mentioned the Gi versus Nogi. She is more

933
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 4: known for her gee accomplishments, but like she's won some

934
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:11,680
Speaker 4: Abu dhabies and stuff, so she's plenty of experience in both.

935
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:14,319
Speaker 4: The big issue we see with a lot of ge

936
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 4: heavy peoples that just doesn't focus on the takedown as much,

937
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:21,399
Speaker 4: Like it's much easier to pull guard. Typically in IVJJF

938
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:23,320
Speaker 4: rules you have to have some kind of grip before

939
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 4: you can pull guard, which is really hard to do

940
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 4: when I'm trying to grab your sweaty arm, But I

941
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 4: can grab any piece of your clothing and sit down.

942
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 4: Most of the top players in matches go that way.

943
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 4: With that said, she's a solid wrestler. I wouldn't say

944
00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:38,719
Speaker 4: a great wrestler, like she's not different word classes, but

945
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 4: she's no Jillian Robertson if I could make a comparison.

946
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:44,879
Speaker 4: But she's you know, solid takedowns good enough when she's

947
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 4: fighting the arena. Alekxkiva and Monster are at randoms of

948
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 4: the world to get the fight to the mat.

949
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:52,399
Speaker 3: So I'm with you. I think the round one.

950
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 4: And two together is probably sharp for the reasons you mentioned,

951
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 4: not even just cardio, but also like you get slippery,

952
00:44:58,040 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 4: it's harder to finish those submissions. There's a lot that

953
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:03,239
Speaker 4: go on, and it's one of those things where if

954
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 4: it has gone three rounds, it probably means something that's

955
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:08,320
Speaker 4: went horribly wrong and she isn't able to get takedowns,

956
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 4: Like you're not going to find a submission thirteen minutes

957
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:13,839
Speaker 4: into the fight that wasn't there in the first ten

958
00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 4: minutes if you're actually getting to the match. So it's

959
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:19,719
Speaker 4: one of those like Baysy and type things where just

960
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:21,799
Speaker 4: by the nature of us being in the third round

961
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:24,640
Speaker 4: means the submissions probably not coming. So I really like

962
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 4: that angle from you. Is that with throwing submission on,

963
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,279
Speaker 4: there just any any end round one or two.

964
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:32,799
Speaker 1: No, that's that's any any method round one or round

965
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:34,719
Speaker 1: two is even money. So I thought that was a

966
00:45:34,719 --> 00:45:37,040
Speaker 1: pretty pretty nice angle. I think her I think I

967
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 1: make her inside the distance minus one fifty and it

968
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 1: is minus one fifty, so I was like, I'm just

969
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 1: going to take a discount for the first two rounds. Yeah,

970
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 1: it seems like her style is to uh get the

971
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:48,839
Speaker 1: takedown in round one, use if the submission, isn't there,

972
00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:51,440
Speaker 1: Use the ground and bound to soften them up and

973
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:53,600
Speaker 1: then look for the submission in round two. That's that's

974
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 1: how she won her first five, but it seems like

975
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 1: how she looks to win in all of her fights.

976
00:45:57,560 --> 00:46:00,319
Speaker 1: We'll see if she's able to do it again on Saturday.

977
00:46:01,480 --> 00:46:03,239
Speaker 1: One more fight before we get to our best bet,

978
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 1: and then we've got one other fight we'll talk about

979
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 1: as well that we didn't have a take on. But

980
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:10,840
Speaker 1: Etcher Sosa against Luan Leserta. Sosa about minus two forty,

981
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 1: Serta plus two hundred. This seems fairly Binarylserta is a

982
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:18,000
Speaker 1: good submission grappler, but that's about it, and I think

983
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:20,320
Speaker 1: if Sosa is able to keep this thing on the feet,

984
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 1: he's going to end up finishing him. Sosa seems like

985
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:24,600
Speaker 1: a pretty good grappler in his own right, just is

986
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:27,960
Speaker 1: the much better striker here. Does come from. Spain has

987
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:31,560
Speaker 1: some regional championships in Spain, but the regional scene over

988
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 1: there not as I think a Swedish regional scene as well.

989
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 1: Just it's tougher to gauge the regional scenes and the

990
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:40,120
Speaker 1: fighters from there because we don't generally see them come

991
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 1: over to the UFC directly as frequently. So how did

992
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 1: you judge Sosa coming off of Contender series? How do

993
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:49,560
Speaker 1: you see this fight playing out? I do make fight

994
00:46:49,640 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 1: ends inside the distance about minus one to eighty. I

995
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 1: took minus one fifty nine, So because it's binary, I'm

996
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 1: just expecting somebody to finish. What do you think, really?

997
00:46:57,160 --> 00:47:00,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, Soso is one of my favorite prosper from the season.

998
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 4: With that said, he's thirty right now, so like he's

999
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 4: a little bit more of a finished product than someone

1000
00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 4: like Marwan Rahiki who fought on the same season and

1001
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:11,839
Speaker 4: has all these obvious holes, but definitely higher upside. As

1002
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:14,400
Speaker 4: long as he doesn't get taken down, which I don't

1003
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 4: really worry about. I think he'll probably roll through Luwan

1004
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 4: Lcerta pretty easily.

1005
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:19,839
Speaker 1: Here.

1006
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 4: He's one of my favorite DFS plays. It's another one

1007
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:23,880
Speaker 4: of these weird slates where we have a ton of

1008
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:26,760
Speaker 4: very expensive fighters. I think he's an eighty eight hundred

1009
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:30,360
Speaker 4: on DraftKings, which is just a good or eighty nine hundred, sorry,

1010
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:33,280
Speaker 4: which is just a good bit down from the top guys.

1011
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:35,040
Speaker 4: But I think he has every bit the upside with

1012
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 4: his striking, So that is where my exposure to him

1013
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 4: is going to be. Lacerda pretty much has to get

1014
00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 4: an early takedown in a submission er. I don't see

1015
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 4: how he finishes it. We haven't seen great things from

1016
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 4: Lacerda in the UF so he's talented, but as you noted,

1017
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 4: fairly one dimensional, making this a super binary fight where

1018
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 4: he has to do that and then Sosa knows he

1019
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:56,879
Speaker 4: has to do that. So it's a very good athlete too,

1020
00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:59,840
Speaker 4: like just looks looks like what you expect a fighter

1021
00:47:59,840 --> 00:48:04,080
Speaker 4: to look like, explosive the whole package, but again, a

1022
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:07,360
Speaker 4: finished product by the time he got to the Contender series,

1023
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 4: as opposed to someone with a ton of room to grow.

1024
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 1: To move on our consensus best bet for this weekend's card. Again,

1025
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:15,560
Speaker 1: just as a reminder if you have not watched the

1026
00:48:15,560 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 1: show before billion now, I have a completely separate process

1027
00:48:18,640 --> 00:48:20,799
Speaker 1: for how we handicap. We don't generally find out one

1028
00:48:20,840 --> 00:48:23,920
Speaker 1: another's bets until Thursday night, and it's always a delight

1029
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:26,440
Speaker 1: when I go in our combined sheet and see that

1030
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 1: I'm ready to add my favorite underdog and my favorite bet,

1031
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:31,200
Speaker 1: and Billy is already added the exact same one. So

1032
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:32,759
Speaker 1: we were a line number and a SILVERA. This week,

1033
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 1: we're also very much aligned on Pierra La Fierra Rodriguez. Now,

1034
00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 1: this is a match up against Sam Hughes from twenty

1035
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:42,360
Speaker 1: twenty two. Rodriguez won the first fight twenty nine to

1036
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 1: twenty eight unanimously. She closed about minus one seventy in

1037
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:49,280
Speaker 1: this match. On that matchup. She's roughly minus one fifty

1038
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 1: five minus one sixty in the rematch. A little surprised

1039
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 1: to see that the line had not blown out a

1040
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:57,239
Speaker 1: little bit more one because fighters are in the first fight.

1041
00:48:57,360 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 1: Usually when the rematch you've done more research into that

1042
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:02,680
Speaker 1: than I have. Billy, but too, I think she's improved

1043
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:05,359
Speaker 1: more relatively the first fight, Yes, and Sam Hughes has

1044
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 1: as well. She's just gone through her grappling more proactively.

1045
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:12,920
Speaker 1: Landed eight takedowns against Knuts and landed seven against Kaitlyn Sosa.

1046
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:16,920
Speaker 1: Got herself disqualified against Arianni Carnilosi, I believe, by head

1047
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 1: botting her right, but was committed to the grapp ling

1048
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:22,320
Speaker 1: in that fight too. These two are the same age.

1049
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 1: There's no reason why Hughes should have improved more drastically.

1050
00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:28,960
Speaker 1: And I guess if we're going to pick Jim's I'll

1051
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:31,799
Speaker 1: take black House MMA over four to MMA. I'm not

1052
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:34,799
Speaker 1: the biggest Safe sayoud fan. I don't know if you've

1053
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:38,319
Speaker 1: seen that clip over mes Brahimai after the Protest Jeff

1054
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:41,320
Speaker 1: Neil fight when Neil got knocked out. Rahimai is like

1055
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 1: like pushing through the crowd around all the other fighters

1056
00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 1: to yell at Safe sayou that he like killed Jeff

1057
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:49,440
Speaker 1: Neil's career. It's a really weird clip. But yeah, I'm

1058
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:53,319
Speaker 1: not the biggest Safe fan, but I'll always take somebody

1059
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 1: who's training downward. Leoto Machidah was trained, especially in the

1060
00:49:57,160 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 1: same week that the WBC is going on and most

1061
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 1: of the for most of America. I guess I should

1062
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 1: say I got to learn about the Japanese Brazilian interplay

1063
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,400
Speaker 1: and connection and just got to wonder why there's all

1064
00:50:08,440 --> 00:50:11,799
Speaker 1: these Japanese dudes pitching for Team Brazil. So hopefully that

1065
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 1: leads to people learning about the origins of them or

1066
00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 1: Brazilian jiu jitsu and how it originally came from Japan.

1067
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 1: But regardless of that, we're both on Pierre this weekend.

1068
00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:25,520
Speaker 1: I like her. I make her like minus two forty.

1069
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:29,279
Speaker 1: She's again minus one sixty, So what did you see

1070
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:30,799
Speaker 1: in this fight? What did you see in the first fight?

1071
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 1: And I know you're in agreement that she has probably

1072
00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:35,719
Speaker 1: improved more of the two relative in the first fight.

1073
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:38,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, this I got on this one earlier this week

1074
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 4: I got minus one fortieth in my luck ratings. The

1075
00:50:41,680 --> 00:50:44,919
Speaker 4: big thing is the two losses that Pierre has since

1076
00:50:44,960 --> 00:50:48,279
Speaker 4: they met. Was a submission to Jillian Robertson, which that's

1077
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:50,759
Speaker 4: gonna happen. Jillian Robertson is really good. And then the

1078
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:53,560
Speaker 4: DQ but it wasn't like a DQ in a close fight.

1079
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:55,520
Speaker 4: She dropped her opponent dove on top of her with

1080
00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:58,279
Speaker 4: beating her up head buttered. The ref said, don't do that,

1081
00:50:58,360 --> 00:50:59,720
Speaker 4: and then she had butter again.

1082
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:02,760
Speaker 3: Just hilarious. It was great.

1083
00:51:01,719 --> 00:51:05,719
Speaker 1: I had Joe Long last weekend who basically did the

1084
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 1: same thing with pretty Garbrand with the nuts shots. So

1085
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:11,200
Speaker 1: it's a little starring to now bet Pierra knowing that,

1086
00:51:11,280 --> 00:51:13,200
Speaker 1: but yeah, go ahead, sorry.

1087
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:15,840
Speaker 3: But no, you're good. But long story short, did she

1088
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:18,560
Speaker 3: deserve to lose? Yes? But was she clearly the better

1089
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:20,000
Speaker 3: fighter in that matchup? Also?

1090
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:23,080
Speaker 4: Yes, compared to Sam Hughes, who is another one of

1091
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:25,200
Speaker 4: those fighters. For most of the time her ceiling is

1092
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:28,399
Speaker 4: a close decision. She submitted Shauna Bannon in her last fight.

1093
00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:30,920
Speaker 4: Shauna Bannon has no business in the UFC. It's no

1094
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:34,480
Speaker 4: disrespect to her. I'm sure she's a lovely person, just

1095
00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:36,840
Speaker 4: that's not what we used to think of as UFC level.

1096
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:39,759
Speaker 4: Her two wins before that were very close, split decisions.

1097
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:42,719
Speaker 4: And if Sam Hughes can't grapple you, she doesn't really

1098
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:46,239
Speaker 4: have a plan B. And Pierre Rodriguez has been the

1099
00:51:46,239 --> 00:51:48,600
Speaker 4: better grappler and to that point, took her down five

1100
00:51:48,640 --> 00:51:51,720
Speaker 4: times in the first matchup. I think Sam Hughes actually

1101
00:51:51,800 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 4: might be the more like technical grappler and maybe overall fighter,

1102
00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:58,759
Speaker 4: but she's kind of slow and just not exceptionally explosive

1103
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 4: where Pierre Rodriguez explosive, and she'll come out and fight hard.

1104
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 4: I want someone willing to head butt their opponent. I

1105
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:07,840
Speaker 4: want to bet on someone willing to head butt their

1106
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 4: opponent to get a win. I just want someone with

1107
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 4: their strength to not actually do it, you know, or

1108
00:52:12,200 --> 00:52:14,280
Speaker 4: not do it twice, because you can do every foul

1109
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:17,759
Speaker 4: at least once free of consequence at MMA, so one

1110
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 4: head butter fewer Pierre Rodriguez ideally, and I think we cash.

1111
00:52:21,239 --> 00:52:22,919
Speaker 3: That's pretty easy. One fight.

1112
00:52:22,920 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 1: We didn't get to or have a betting take on

1113
00:52:24,760 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 1: Elijah Smith about minus two fifteen to gets too young

1114
00:52:27,239 --> 00:52:29,160
Speaker 1: you at plus one to eighty. I think this could

1115
00:52:29,160 --> 00:52:32,080
Speaker 1: be a really entertaining fight. I just didn't have any

1116
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:35,400
Speaker 1: plus ev ways to bet it. Smith is the better athlete,

1117
00:52:36,000 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 1: also seven years younger, six inch reach advantage, three inches taller,

1118
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:42,239
Speaker 1: but young U's a really well rounded fighter. I think

1119
00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:44,800
Speaker 1: they can end up making this one relatively competitive. I

1120
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:47,719
Speaker 1: think this one probably goes all fifteen minutes or at

1121
00:52:47,800 --> 00:52:51,200
Speaker 1: least over What did you see here? Any any bets

1122
00:52:51,200 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 1: at all or any leans or it's just a pear past.

1123
00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:57,240
Speaker 3: My initial reaction was just too young you. I love Jujuso.

1124
00:52:57,320 --> 00:52:59,920
Speaker 4: He's a lot of fun, just does things, which is awesome,

1125
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:02,759
Speaker 4: but he like maybe didn't beat Joe Long in that fight,

1126
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 4: even though it was a unanimous decision. Also, I believe

1127
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:08,919
Speaker 4: about seven years older and if both got you know,

1128
00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 4: we're trying to project forward based on what we saw

1129
00:53:11,239 --> 00:53:13,720
Speaker 4: in their last fight, not just pit the last version

1130
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 4: of these guys against each other. And Elijah Smith is

1131
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:20,520
Speaker 4: an elite athlete who is twenty three, so it's really

1132
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:23,080
Speaker 4: hard to pick against him because the amount of progress

1133
00:53:23,080 --> 00:53:25,480
Speaker 4: he can make for a fight to fight is just massive,

1134
00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:28,480
Speaker 4: kind of slightly off top of but I feel bad

1135
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:30,040
Speaker 4: for a lot of these career in prospects is they

1136
00:53:30,040 --> 00:53:32,560
Speaker 4: have the mandatory military service that's right in the prime

1137
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:34,880
Speaker 4: of their career, so by the time they get to

1138
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 4: UFC level, they're almost by definition late twenties, if not

1139
00:53:38,280 --> 00:53:40,319
Speaker 4: thirty by the time they built up enough of a

1140
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:42,880
Speaker 4: resume to get here, So we're just not getting them

1141
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 4: at twenty two twenty three, where maybe they could turn

1142
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:48,600
Speaker 4: into something like that, whereas Elijah Smith got kind of

1143
00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:52,279
Speaker 4: the whole package and could be could be, you know,

1144
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:54,400
Speaker 4: twice as good as the last time we saw him

1145
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:56,120
Speaker 4: for two or three fights in a row, which makes

1146
00:53:56,120 --> 00:53:57,600
Speaker 4: it scary to ever bet against him.

1147
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:00,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, Smith and rahik He you're two twenty three year

1148
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:02,160
Speaker 1: old prospects on this card who I think are the

1149
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:05,880
Speaker 1: real ones to watch moving forward. Sosa edg Your Sosa

1150
00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:09,000
Speaker 1: obviously extremely talented as well, just a bit older than

1151
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:11,000
Speaker 1: the mitterer guys, probably a bit more of a finished product.

1152
00:54:11,040 --> 00:54:13,439
Speaker 1: That'll do it for USC betting preview for this week.

1153
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:15,600
Speaker 1: You can find more UFC betting content for both Billy

1154
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:18,360
Speaker 1: and myself on actionwork dot com. If you'd like to

1155
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 1: instantly tell some of the bets that we discussed that

1156
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:22,520
Speaker 1: today's show, look for the quick slip link both in

1157
00:54:22,560 --> 00:54:25,759
Speaker 1: the podcast and video description or is it actionwork dot

1158
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 1: com slash bet now. Don't forget to download the free

1159
00:54:28,719 --> 00:54:30,520
Speaker 1: ord winning Action Nework Gap and sign up for Action

1160
00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:33,919
Speaker 1: Pro for me to access to expert picks and analysis.

1161
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:36,239
Speaker 1: Best of luck with all your bets this weekend, enjoy

1162
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:38,160
Speaker 1: the violence, Thank you for listening, See you back here

1163
00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:54,839
Speaker 1: next week. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1164
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:57,480
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1165
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:00,399
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1166
00:55:00,440 --> 00:55:01,200
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