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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. It's good all right.

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Speaker 1: Here we go spreading the corner ten seconds ormaining.

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Speaker 2: They're just gonna throw.

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Speaker 3: Under the basket.

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Speaker 1: Under the basket, it's not a seven second.

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Speaker 4: It's the crew for the wind God pick go Americle I.

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Speaker 4: It's the water hit, that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 3: Shuck it all.

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Speaker 1: In college basketball, it's.

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Speaker 4: Not the size on the dog in the fight. It's

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Speaker 4: the size of the fight in the dog. What's up

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Speaker 4: the general nation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. This

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Speaker 4: is the Final four betting preview. I'm stuck in with

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Speaker 4: me as always is Colin Wilson and Mike Randall. Colin,

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Speaker 4: sorry you're not heading to Indianapolis this weekend. But it

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Speaker 4: was a good run for your hogs. Ready to break

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Speaker 4: these games down?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it was a great run for the Hogs. I

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Speaker 3: couldn't be more proud of an Elite eight. You know,

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Speaker 3: at least we were right as a podcast saying that

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Speaker 3: they can't win the national championship. They just didn't have

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Speaker 3: all the components. But Muscleman's out there recruiting, getting some

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Speaker 3: transfers into the program, and we get to sit here

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Speaker 3: and talk about how I have two eighty to one tickets,

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Speaker 3: and one of them I cannot couldn't sell for even

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Speaker 3: value for what I placed on it.

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Speaker 4: We will get to yeah, some futures hedging for anyone

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Speaker 4: that followed. We'll also talk some potential national championship lines.

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Speaker 4: We'll have a live show on Monday for the National Championship,

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Speaker 4: but no podcast. We'll have tons of content out on

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Speaker 4: Actionnework dot com and the Action Network at randall. What's

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Speaker 4: going on? Brother? You're ready to get into these final

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Speaker 4: four games?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 6: Man? That Arkansas game is proof that Rocky is real.

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Speaker 6: I mean how many times? I mean we've been calling

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Speaker 6: the dip by on the dip right, and they come

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Speaker 6: roaring back yet again. Not a thing was huge, but

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Speaker 6: great effort.

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Speaker 4: By then.

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Speaker 6: They're gonna be solid next year. And yeah, man, we

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Speaker 6: got two final fours. Let's get into it.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, let's do this all right.

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Speaker 4: Let's start with the first game on Saturday. I now,

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Speaker 4: these games are earlier than usual, which I just realized earlier.

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Speaker 4: Today starts five to fourteen Eastern on CBS Houston at Baylor.

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Speaker 4: Baylor is a five point favorite over under one thirty four.

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Speaker 4: So how do these teams get here? Well, Houston became

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Speaker 4: a first team in NCAA tournament history to get to

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Speaker 4: the Final four by beating four double digit seeds. You

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Speaker 4: can only play the teams that are in front of you,

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Speaker 4: but it was definitely a beneficial draw. And it's not

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Speaker 4: like they rolled through right. They had that huge comeback

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Speaker 4: when Duro came back in with some late heroics for

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Speaker 4: fourteen to two run to close against Rutgers. Oregon State

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Speaker 4: have that huge late second half charge, tied the game

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Speaker 4: with I think like five minutes ago, and then Houston

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Speaker 4: extended late. Meanwhile, Baylor has had a much easier cruise

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Speaker 4: to the Final four. They've won every game by at

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Speaker 4: least nine points. They appear to be back to pre

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Speaker 4: COVID Baylor if you've been living under a rock. Baylor

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Speaker 4: dealt with some COVID issues in early February. I had

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Speaker 4: like a three week hiatus. They weren't practicing a lot

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Speaker 4: of guys that were infected, and obviously when they came

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Speaker 4: back there were some struggles early to be expected. The

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Speaker 4: defense just look the step slow. The defensive efficiency metrics

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Speaker 4: were down, but look a week off after they lost

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Speaker 4: in the Big Twelve tournament, a week off. You know,

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Speaker 4: in between the first and second weekend seems to have

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Speaker 4: served them well. They seem to have everything back and

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Speaker 4: just there they're rolling now. Not as dominant as Gonzaga,

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Speaker 4: but right there. When I look at this game, these

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Speaker 4: are two teams that really take away everything that you

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Speaker 4: want to do in the paint right like you can't.

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Speaker 4: It's Houston just clogs up everything. And they're also excellent

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Speaker 4: on the perimeter, which is really important against Baylor. Bill's

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Speaker 4: number one in the nation in three point shooting at

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Speaker 4: over forty one percent. Houston holds teams that that's right

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Speaker 4: right over twenty nine percent three point shooting. That's not

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Speaker 4: a fluke. The last two years they've been in the

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Speaker 4: top ten nationally. Really long athletic. The offense is top

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Speaker 4: ten in adjusted offensive efficiency per kempom. But if you

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Speaker 4: watch the offense sometimes you say, how can this offense

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Speaker 4: be great out? So it's really it's they grind the game.

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Speaker 4: They want to play really slow outside the top three

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Speaker 4: thirty and adjusted tempo. They play a lot of io.

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Speaker 4: You know, they're they shoot a lot of threes top

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Speaker 4: sixty and three point rate, and they're not great at

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Speaker 4: shooting threes. Either. But here's the thing. They get lots

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Speaker 4: of offensive rebounds. It doesn't matter if you're if you're

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Speaker 4: if they're hitting threes, great, but if they're missing shots,

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Speaker 4: they just live on the offensive class their second in

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Speaker 4: the country and offensive rebounding percent, So even if they're

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Speaker 4: missing two shots in a possession, they might have two

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Speaker 4: second chance opportunities and eventually get something at the rim. Baylor, meanwhile,

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Speaker 4: just a pluthor of options on the perimeter. Not a

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Speaker 4: post heavy offense, which is good against Houston. You don't

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Speaker 4: really want to run up post heavy offense against that

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Speaker 4: d bail Or just has shooters for days. They have

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Speaker 4: five guys in the rotation that are over thirty nine

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Speaker 4: and a half percent from three. This is a defense

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Speaker 4: that is ultra aggressive as well third and turnover rate.

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Speaker 4: They can get out and guard you. No middle defense

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Speaker 4: don't want you to get into the paint. But because

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Speaker 4: Baylor is so aggressive, they are a bit vulnerable on

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Speaker 4: the defensive glass, so teams can offensive rebound against them.

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Speaker 4: It's not a great defensive rebound team because they're aggressive,

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Speaker 4: they're out of position. It's not a team with elite size,

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Speaker 4: So there are a couple of things that are working

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Speaker 4: in Houston's favior mainly that they can Statistically, they should

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Speaker 4: be able to get their fair share of offensive rebounds.

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Speaker 4: Houston's defense also ultra aggressive. They foul off Bayla doesn't

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Speaker 4: really draw a ton of fouls. But what this comes

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Speaker 4: down to me is this is gonna be a jump

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Speaker 4: shooters game, like which team can make the most jump shots,

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Speaker 4: and for me, that's Baylor. I think Baylor wins here.

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Speaker 4: The line for me is pretty spot on. I might

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Speaker 4: have Baylor in a money line parlavel so that I'll

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Speaker 4: be looking for them live, you know, maybe three or

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Speaker 4: under or second half if they're down. Randall, let me

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Speaker 4: go to you first. What do you see in the

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Speaker 4: All Texas battle of Houston versus Baylor one versus two?

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Speaker 6: If you're back in Houston here, then you need something

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Speaker 6: odd to happen, some strange thing like the Jewels Bernard

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Speaker 6: four threes in UCLA game to keep them close when

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Speaker 6: the game's about to get blown out. Houston defense is phenomenal.

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Speaker 6: They're gonna play tough, They're gonna slow this game down.

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Speaker 6: The problem is Baylor's defense is also strong. When Houston

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Speaker 6: plays teams that also d up and they can't impose

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Speaker 6: their will and control the pace of the game. It's

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Speaker 6: usually a battle for them.

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Speaker 1: I look at this.

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Speaker 6: Game, guys, and I say Rutgers could have been in

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Speaker 6: the Final four, because Rutgers absolutely should have beat this team.

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Speaker 6: They just self destructed at the end. And if you

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Speaker 6: look at Houston, the teams that the path here beat

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Speaker 6: at fifteen in Cleveland State ten and Rutgers eleven in Syracuse,

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Speaker 6: twelve in Oregon state games during the year not a

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Speaker 6: fantastic conference the AAC. They did beat Texas Tech back

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Speaker 6: in November. They're going to need to play their best

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Speaker 6: defensive game of the year, and they're gonna have to

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Speaker 6: have some players off the bench like Fabian White have

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Speaker 6: another big game ten points, something like that, six rebounds,

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Speaker 6: treymond Mark hit a couple threes. They need something like

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Speaker 6: that to happen. And I just think it's very difficult

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Speaker 6: for me to see it, even in this situation with Baylor,

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Speaker 6: when earlier this year they played slow teams like a

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Speaker 6: Texas Tech. They played Texas Tech on the road, they

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Speaker 6: beat them by eight. They played Texas Tech at home,

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Speaker 6: they beat them by fifteen. Similar type of teams struggle

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Speaker 6: on offense, good defense. Daveian mess was at a different level.

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Speaker 6: Got in a foul trouble which certainly helped, you know,

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Speaker 6: the opponents when he was in trouble. Jared Butler also,

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Speaker 6: guys really needs to start taking over the game. I

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Speaker 6: think that's gonna be a bigger deal in the finals

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Speaker 6: against Gonzaga. But it's just tough for me to take

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Speaker 6: Houston here because they are limited offensively. They rely a

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Speaker 6: lot of times on these bomb threes from Quentin Grimes

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Speaker 6: and Marcus Sasser. Marcus Sasser's three point is remind me

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Speaker 6: a Mackie Sasser trying to throw the ball back to

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Speaker 6: the pitcher's mound, these huge lobs from the corner. It's

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Speaker 6: just too much for me. Great job by Kelvin Samson,

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Speaker 6: tremendous job by the Cougars. I can't see a way

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Speaker 6: they keep this game closed, so I'm laying it with Baylor.

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Speaker 6: Five points is fine for me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually am in complete disagreement. I'm gonna be

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Speaker 3: on Houston in this game. I understand everything that Randall

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Speaker 3: is saying, but at the same time, Baylor is more

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Speaker 3: efficient when they are pushing tempo, when they get into

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Speaker 3: half court sets. They're just a different offense completely. A

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Speaker 3: case in point against Arkansas, came out on fire, up

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Speaker 3: and down the court, and we're dominating that game. And

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Speaker 3: then once they slowed it down, they allowed the Razorbacks

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Speaker 3: to get back into it. And if you look at Houston,

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Speaker 3: I mean extremely slow tempo, I mean slowest in Division One,

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Speaker 3: but they don't mind being pushed around. If you look

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Speaker 3: at a list of games that they played this year

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Speaker 3: against teams that went up tempo with them, Houston ended

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Speaker 3: up scoring like ninety points. Cincinnati. One of the fastest

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Speaker 3: paced games they had all season, they scored ninety Our

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Speaker 3: Lady of the Lake, right, everybody remember that one a

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Speaker 3: possession game that got up to eighty three possessions up

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Speaker 3: and down the court, one hundred and twelve points. Lamar

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Speaker 3: to kick off the season eighty nine points in a

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Speaker 3: game that was all, you know, being pushed on tempo

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Speaker 3: by their opponent. And I think Baylor to be a

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Speaker 3: better offense. They want to push that here because that

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Speaker 3: gets them. That doesn't allow them to have Houston set

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Speaker 3: up their defense. And you know, the best way to

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Speaker 3: attack Houston is to not let them set up that defense,

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Speaker 3: which is extremely good at guarding the perimeter, which is

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Speaker 3: what Baylor wants to do.

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Speaker 1: I saw a lot. I saw so much of Baylor's

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Speaker 1: offense just.

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Speaker 3: Shoot threes, miss tap out, shoot threes, miss tap out,

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Speaker 3: And I think that's where the problem is going to be,

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Speaker 3: because Houston is what's second best in the nation in

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Speaker 3: offensive rebounding Baylor's middling and defensive rebounding. I mean, I

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Speaker 3: think Houston is going to snack all of the offensive

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Speaker 3: rebounds and listen, I think it's a toss up game.

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Speaker 3: I'm not saying Houston's gonna win. I think it should

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Speaker 3: be a game that's lined at one. I agree with

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Speaker 3: Ken Palm being at a one point game. I agree

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Speaker 3: with Torvik being at a one point game. I think

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Speaker 3: this is a coin flip based on Houston's defense, no

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Speaker 3: second chance points, and the fact that they just they

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Speaker 3: don't really have an inside presence like vital can get

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Speaker 3: himself into foul trouble. What I've seen Houston do on

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Speaker 3: the perimeter, I feel like they're gonna junk it up here,

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Speaker 3: you know, get Baylor out of a rhythm as to

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Speaker 3: where I think Baylor is going to be pushing tempo,

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Speaker 3: so that kind of leads me into the play that

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Speaker 3: I am going to make on this game is I'll

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Speaker 3: talk about my future ticket later. I think Houston Baylor's

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Speaker 3: a toss up, so I take the points if I

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Speaker 3: didn't already have a futures ticket on this.

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Speaker 1: But I think the over is the way to play.

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Speaker 3: And the reason for that is that you know, the

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Speaker 3: pace in here can absolutely go up, and Houston will

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Speaker 3: allow that to happen. They have no problems going up

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Speaker 3: and down the court. Now, if you want to get

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Speaker 3: into a half court game, it's going to be an undergame,

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Speaker 3: and Houston's got a great shot. So I think Baylor's

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Speaker 3: going to force tempo and Houston's going to play along

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Speaker 3: with it. If you look at Houston there not turning

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Speaker 3: the ball over at all, it's it's we talk about

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Speaker 3: trending metrics. We're gonna talk about LSU football and Gonzaga

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Speaker 3: here in a little while. Houston is just soaring in

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Speaker 3: turnover rate and Baylor defensive efficiency. I'm not convinced they're

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Speaker 3: back against that Arkansas game. I didn't see the Baylor

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Speaker 3: that I saw before. I still see a Baylor defense

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Speaker 3: that can be taken advantage of and they're not forcing

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Speaker 3: any turnovers and their efficiency is just down as a whole.

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Speaker 3: So I think Houston's got a great shot here. I

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Speaker 3: think it should be a coin flip game, and I

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Speaker 3: think this is gonna go over one thirty four. I

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Speaker 3: think you can get up to one forty is what

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Speaker 3: I'd play the over on.

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Speaker 4: I actually think the Baylor look Houston will allow you

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Speaker 4: to get in transition, and I disagree on Bail. I

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Speaker 4: think Taylor. I think Baylor is back. I mean that

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Speaker 4: Arkansas team is good, and they still covered and we're

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Speaker 4: up basically double digits for most of the game. I

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Speaker 4: just I think Houston's gonna end up taking too many

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Speaker 4: two point jump shots. And yes, the defensive rebounding metrics

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Speaker 4: are concerning, but I think that they'll compete enough on

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Speaker 4: the glass. Houston's so aggressive both ends of the floor

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Speaker 4: on the glass, and I think they's gonna have some

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Speaker 4: a chance to get out and transition here. Houston is

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Speaker 4: really good at getting back, really well disciplined at recovering.

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Speaker 4: But this is a different Baylor offense in transition. And

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Speaker 4: if you look at spot up shooting person energy, he

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Speaker 4: Baylor number the third most efficient spot up shooting team

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Speaker 4: in the country, Houston one hundred and fifteen. I think

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Speaker 4: some of the Houston metrics are a little bit inflated

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Speaker 4: because of their schedule, whereas Baylor, I think they're if

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Speaker 4: you know, they're total efficiency metrics. Like Kempo makes this

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Speaker 4: game like one I think, which I think is crazy,

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Speaker 4: but I think that's that's capturing like a month stretch

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Speaker 4: of Baylor where they just weren't the same team. There's

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Speaker 4: a reason why GM Palm is won and this is

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Speaker 4: at five. I'm a tad over five.

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 4: I think there's just the cream rises to the top

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Speaker 4: here and Baylor gets this done. But I mean the

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Speaker 4: line is pretty spot on to me.

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Speaker 6: My issue is that Houston in the second half against

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Speaker 6: Oregon State, they were scolding hot. In the first half.

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Speaker 6: Oregon State look a little shell shock that we're kind

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Speaker 6: of getting pushed around, which was surprising when you go

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Speaker 6: through Tennessee, Oklahoma State, and Loyal to Chicago. I understand

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Speaker 6: that Houston has a better defense than all those teams,

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Speaker 6: but you figured they would have been at least a

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Speaker 6: little better prepared. And then the second half, Tinkle goes

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Speaker 6: to that one to three to one, and Houston's response

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Speaker 6: on offense is to lob the ball back and forth

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Speaker 6: and then hope for a corner three. I think Gorm

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Speaker 6: gives them nothing here inside against Baylor with the no middle,

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Speaker 6: I think they'd have to be scolding hot. Twenty six

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Speaker 6: points for them in the first nineteen minutes and eight

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Speaker 6: seconds of the second half against Oregon State. Listen, if

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Speaker 6: they can get some stuff in transition that will absolutely

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Speaker 6: help them Collins, right, I just I don't see it.

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Speaker 6: I think Baylor rolls here and separates and heads to

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Speaker 6: the finals.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and look, it's really hard to find super efficient

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Speaker 4: lines this late in the year. But I think Baylor

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Speaker 4: is the exception the bail games because and there's people

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Speaker 4: with varying opinions on Baylor because of their pre COVID numbers.

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Speaker 4: Are they back are they not? If you look at

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Speaker 4: some of their computer numbers in different models, then it's

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Speaker 4: capturing that COVID dip And where are they now? Do

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Speaker 4: you do you? And it's something I struggled. Do I

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Speaker 4: do you put them all the way back to where

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Speaker 4: they were pre COVID? Are you fifty percent there? So,

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Speaker 4: because this is a team before the COVID break that

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Speaker 4: I had them neck and neck with with Gonzaga. So

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Speaker 4: if you go back to January, it was Baylor in

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Speaker 4: Gonzaga and then a five point drop off to the

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Speaker 4: third best team, and depending on the night, depending on

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Speaker 4: the result, like that's how close it was. It could

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Speaker 4: be Bailor number one, it could be Gonzaga number one.

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Speaker 4: And now you know, if you look at ken Pom

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Speaker 4: for example, it's a huge gap between one and two.

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Speaker 4: So I think that Baylor is that team where you're

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Speaker 4: gonna have differing opinions in the market, and if you're right,

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Speaker 4: you can find some value in their games, like of Colins, right,

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Speaker 4: and they're not all the way back, there's probably value

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Speaker 4: in Houston. If they are, there might be value on Baylor.

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Speaker 4: I actually think some of the look aheadlines with Baylor

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Speaker 4: against Gonzaga are too high, Like I don't think that

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Speaker 4: there's I saw some six and a half. I would

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Speaker 4: I will gladly take Taylor plus six and a half

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Speaker 4: if they face Gonzaga, And any thoughts there.

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Speaker 6: Randall, Yeah, I was saying I was doing a spot

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Speaker 6: before I was saying six seven is starting to get

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Speaker 6: iffy for me. If it came out five, I would

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Speaker 6: probably lay it with Gonzaga, but you're right, it's almost

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Speaker 6: going to be too much of a correction because I

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Speaker 6: do expect we'll get into in a minute, you know,

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Speaker 6: out of these two games, obviously the Gonzaga UCLA want

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Speaker 6: I expect to be a bigger blowout. I think the

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Speaker 6: line will reflect that. So there is a point at which,

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Speaker 6: even though I think it's Gonzaga's year, where that line's

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Speaker 6: going to be really sort of interesting. And I think

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Speaker 6: it's right there, Like you said, stuck six six and

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Speaker 6: a half starts get to that point that's going to

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Speaker 6: be a buy on Baylor for me.

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Speaker 4: One hundred percent. If I get a seven, I'm taking

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Speaker 4: six and a half. I'm I'm taking seven. I would

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Speaker 4: hammer Colin any thoughts, early thoughts on a Baylor Gonzaga

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Speaker 4: potential final line. Look at that line.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Projection that I've got is minus four point eight on

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Speaker 3: Gonzaga for I. So I agree with you guys, there

336
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Speaker 3: is value on the Baylor number anything over five for me,

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Speaker 3: with a total of about one sixty five, I think

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Speaker 3: the question that we got to do our homework on

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Speaker 3: is if Baylor wants to go up and down the

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Speaker 3: court against Gonzaga, I think they could absolutely get thrashed.

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Speaker 3: The one to sixty five will get it'll go over

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Speaker 3: pretty fast. I think Gonzaga would cover the number. What's

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Speaker 3: Baylor going to try to do from a pace standpoint,

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Speaker 3: because this Gonzaga team, which will lead into this handicap here,

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Speaker 3: is one of the craziest all time transition offenses I've

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Speaker 3: ever seen, and I'm seeing it in the advanced trending

347
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Speaker 3: stats too.

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Speaker 4: I just think I personally just think that Baylor can

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Speaker 4: score with Gonzaga. I don't really think he can slow

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Speaker 4: down Gonzaga. But there are some weaknesses on the Gonzaga defense.

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Speaker 4: And look, their defense is excellent, it's top five in

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Speaker 4: an adjusted efficiency. But if you have a team with

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Speaker 4: and they can switch everything, but Timmy is exploitable, kiss

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Speaker 4: Bert's not the best perimeter defender. With all Baylor's perimeter players,

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Speaker 4: I think that they could potentially keep up with Gonzaga,

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't mind, and overlook it could be an absolute shootout.

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Speaker 4: I think the way that Baylor wins that game is

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Speaker 4: they have to win like eighty eight eighty five, which

359
00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:06,280
Speaker 4: is ridiculously high for a national title game where teams

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Speaker 4: come out a little tighter at first in general, But

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Speaker 4: that would be my thought like and I personally think

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Speaker 4: that I told myself and I've been talking myself that

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Speaker 4: I'm not going against this Gonzaga juggernaut which will lead

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Speaker 4: us into the next game unless they face Baylor, because

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Speaker 4: and then it will come down to do I think

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Speaker 4: Baylor's back because the mark and in the market doesn't.

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Speaker 4: Because I have these teams pretty close, and obviously I've

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Speaker 4: adjusted Gonzaga up. I don't think it would be a pick,

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Speaker 4: and I don't have it as a pick, but I

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Speaker 4: may have it after what I see this weekend. I

371
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:39,800
Speaker 4: might have it around three three and a half. So

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Speaker 4: that's where I think, and that would be create a

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Speaker 4: crazy difference for a national title game. So let's go

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Speaker 4: into that next game. You ce laay, we have the

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Speaker 4: three man weave guys will do a weekend a final

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Speaker 4: super tasty, I'll tell you that. Let's move on to

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Speaker 4: Gonzaga UCLA. It's the late game eight thirty four Eastern

393
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Speaker 4: on CBS at bet MGM, the official arts provider of

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Speaker 4: the Action Network podcast. Gonzaga is a fourteen point favorite

395
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Speaker 4: over under one forty five and a half. This will

396
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Speaker 4: mark the highest spread and Final four history. If you

397
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Speaker 4: include national championships, it would tie. If it closes fourteen,

398
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Speaker 4: it would tie nineteen ninety six Kentucky Syracuse. The Kentucky

399
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,880
Speaker 4: won that game one hundred and one to seventy three.

400
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Speaker 4: So how did UCLI get here? Well, they became only

401
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Speaker 4: the sixth double digit seed to make the Final four

402
00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:26,679
Speaker 4: and only the fifth eleventh seed. They became only the

403
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Speaker 4: second team to go from the first four to the

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Speaker 4: final four, which VCU did back in twenty eleven as

405
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Speaker 4: an eleven seed. The results of those other double digit

406
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Speaker 4: seeds that got to the final four not too promising

407
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Speaker 4: if you are a UCLA fan or backer LOYALA Chicago

408
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:44,640
Speaker 4: twenty eighteen lost sixty nine to fifty seven. Syracuse twenty

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Speaker 4: sixteen is a ten seed, lost eighty three sixty six.

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Speaker 4: Mentioned VCU. They lost seventy to sixty two against eight

411
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Speaker 4: seed Butler, eleventh seed George Mason in two thousand and

412
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Speaker 4: six lost seventy three fifty eight, and LSU in nineteen

413
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Speaker 4: eighty six as an eleven seed lost eighty eight seventy

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Speaker 4: two eventual national champion Louisville. I mean a lot of

415
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Speaker 4: people want to compare it to vs compare UCLA to VCU,

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Speaker 4: because they came for the first four, but VCU won

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Speaker 4: like their first I won four or five games by

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Speaker 4: double digits. They didn't win an overtime against Florida State,

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Speaker 4: But this team reminds me more of LSU in eighty six.

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Speaker 4: They won their first game in double overtime, then they

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Speaker 4: won at the Buzzer, and then they beat the two

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Speaker 4: seed by six Georgia Tech, and then they beat the

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Speaker 4: number one seed Kentucky by two. Well, go to UCLA, doo.

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Speaker 4: They've won two games in overtime, they beat the number

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Speaker 4: one seed in the Elite eight by two. They've definitely

426
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Speaker 4: enjoyed a lot of shooting law for the tournament. Ucla

427
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Speaker 4: is shooting thirty seven of ninety eight from three thirty

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Speaker 4: seven point seven percent. Their opponents are twenty three of

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Speaker 4: ninety three twenty four point seven percent. And it's not

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Speaker 4: like UCLA's had a great perimeter defense all year, and

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Speaker 4: it's not like they're facing a bunch of bad three

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Speaker 4: point shooting teams. Only Michigan State right outside the top

433
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:57,440
Speaker 4: one hundred and one in the country. Of the five

434
00:20:57,480 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 4: teams that they've played from a pure shot quality for

435
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 4: this has only had about a four percent chance of

436
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 4: making it this far. If you won five coin flips,

437
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 4: that's about a three percent chance. And they had two blowouts,

438
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 4: so they've had a lot of breaks go their way.

439
00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:14,840
Speaker 4: But you have to credit mccronin for what he's done

440
00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 4: with this team. This is a team that lost what

441
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 4: they thought was going to be I mean, Knicks was

442
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 4: a highly touted recruit who ended up going to the

443
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:24,880
Speaker 4: G League. That was they lost him before the season started,

444
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 4: and then you lose Jalen Hill and Chris Smith. Chris

445
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,120
Speaker 4: Smith was their second leading scorer, averaged six to seven

446
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:34,119
Speaker 4: rebounds per game, and Corona has found a way to

447
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 4: get this team to the Final Four as an eleven

448
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 4: seed when some people thought they weren't even going to

449
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:40,199
Speaker 4: make the tournament. They want to slow it down. It's

450
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 4: a typical Cronin team, slow the game down. They want

451
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:44,919
Speaker 4: to win on the defensive end. But the it's the

452
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 4: offense that has really carried them four stretches and is

453
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 4: rated higher from an efficiency standpoint. Tiger Campbell at the

454
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:55,640
Speaker 4: point Johnny choosing the Kentucky transfers really came on late.

455
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:57,879
Speaker 4: And then they have, you know, some some shooters on

456
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:01,120
Speaker 4: the on the wings. Riley and has played really well

457
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 4: post defense in its offense has really come on of late.

458
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:06,159
Speaker 4: So it's not a deep team. It's a team that

459
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 4: relies on a ton of two point jumpers, but they

460
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,919
Speaker 4: make a lot. It's a tough jump shooting team. Defensively,

461
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:14,959
Speaker 4: they're not going to force a lot of turnovers, and

462
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 4: they've been vulnerable on the perimeter, but it's a defense

463
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,760
Speaker 4: that seems to be gelling at the right time. They

464
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 4: will take on the number one overall seed, Gonzaga Bulldogs.

465
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,200
Speaker 4: I mean, what do I really need to say about Gonzaga.

466
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 4: They're a juggernaut. They've gotten here by beating every team

467
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 4: by double digits, which they've done in twenty seven straight games,

468
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,360
Speaker 4: which hasn't been done in sixty years. The only game

469
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,639
Speaker 4: they haven't won by double digits this year came against

470
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 4: West Virginia back in early December and Jalen Sungs got

471
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 4: hurt in the first half of that game. They've led

472
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 4: by double digits in all but thirty two seconds of

473
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 4: the second half of their four tournament games, and they've

474
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,639
Speaker 4: just been dominant. And if you still don't buy Gonzaga

475
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:58,360
Speaker 4: because of their schedule, you have to stop. Remember last

476
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,239
Speaker 4: year early in the season in the non conference, they

477
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 4: beat Kansas, they beat Auburn, they beat Iowa, they beat Virginia,

478
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 4: they beat West Virginia, all on neutral courts. If you

479
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 4: throw the West Virginia game with Sugs got hurt, they

480
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 4: ended up winning by five. The other ones they won

481
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,680
Speaker 4: by an average of seventeen point twenty five points per game.

482
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 4: They have more top twenty five kempon wins than Baylor.

483
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 4: This team is a juggernaut. Offensively, they're in transition. They're

484
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 4: basically impossible to stop. You have Timmy on the low block,

485
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 4: you have kisspur To stretches the floor, you have Jalen Suggs.

486
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:30,479
Speaker 4: I mean, they's just aii at Nemhart the Florida transfer.

487
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:33,920
Speaker 4: Everything just fits together, and they just run beautiful motion offense.

488
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 4: And it's their screening action. They're cutting their ball movement.

489
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 4: It's just an impossible off it's their defense is playing

490
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 4: really well as well. So this is a juggernaut. This

491
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 4: is the deserved number one team in the country, and

492
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 4: that's why they're laying fourteen points here. I'm not get

493
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 4: in front of the train. I'll go through some of

494
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:54,119
Speaker 4: the matchup advantages and potential paths to a cover that

495
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 4: I see for UCLA. But I'll start with you, rad

496
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 4: What do you see in this game?

497
00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 6: UCLA? Let's go backwards beats Miss Hunter Dickinson very solid,

498
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 6: really solid big man, still a freshman, still can only

499
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 6: go one direction, not a great jump shooter. They were

500
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 6: able to guard him. Alabama no traditional big Ablin Christian

501
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 6: one of the shortest teams in college basketball BYU Matt

502
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 6: harm seven to four plays like he's five to four. Fine.

503
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 6: Michigan State the last team that had any sort of

504
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 6: decent interior presence. They were losing by eleven at the half,

505
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 6: and that was in the first four game. Tremendous comeback.

506
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 6: Well done, yu Zang Hakez made shots great. I do

507
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 6: not see that here against Gonzaga. They're going to need

508
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 6: Jules Barnard to continue these three for three, four for

509
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:39,400
Speaker 6: four to three point games. Cody Riley has done very well.

510
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 6: You're right stuck. He's played above his head, really challenge

511
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 6: people inside, even though he's undersized. He's also been getting

512
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 6: into foul trouble very very easily. And I'm worried about

513
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 6: the depth on this team. They don't have a lot

514
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,640
Speaker 6: of it. They ended up getting incredible minutes from sophomore

515
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 6: Ken Nomuba who had twenty minutes and five rebounds and

516
00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 6: no points. They are not deep whatsoever, single time, and

517
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:02,680
Speaker 6: Kime and Clark at ten. They played five to five

518
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:04,880
Speaker 6: two minutes. They didn't play that much, so they need

519
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 6: to stay out of foul trouble. Very difficult, and the

520
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 6: difference here is going to be the big inside Drew Timmy,

521
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 6: Drew Timmy going up against the Mobley brothers, we thought

522
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 6: that was going to be a challenge. He destroyed them

523
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 6: in the first half, got out on the break, got

524
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 6: rebound scored twenty three points, five rebounds forces. He can

525
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,159
Speaker 6: also pass. That is the matchup they don't have. Jalen

526
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 6: Suggs is playing at a different level. Fooled around, almost

527
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 6: got a triple double in the last game. He's elevating

528
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 6: his stock. And oh, by the way, we haven't mentioned

529
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 6: the first team All American Corey Kisberg. Great job by

530
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 6: Mick Cronin. They're going to try to control pace and

531
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 6: you give Mick Cronin a solid point guard who doesn't

532
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 6: turn the ball over and Tiger Campbell. That's very dangerous.

533
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 6: I know the line is high here, and I was

534
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 6: all on the underdogs in the first round of the tournament,

535
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,119
Speaker 6: but I'm going with two favorites. I think Gonzaga is

536
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 6: too deep. If they get UCLA down UCLA cannot come back.

537
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 6: That's not their style, and they've done a miraculous job

538
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 6: while not having really to defend an interior big like Timmy,

539
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:01,879
Speaker 6: and I think it ends here. I think in Zaga rolls.

540
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 4: I also mentioned that UCLA has benefited from a ridiculous

541
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 4: free throw shooting lock the past two games Michigan and

542
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,120
Speaker 4: Alabama seventeen to thirty six from the line forty seven

543
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 4: point I mean, and I mean Alabama and Michigan was

544
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 4: I think a top twenty three throw shooting team. Alabama

545
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,880
Speaker 4: is a good free throw shooting team. So I mean,

546
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 4: just if if the variant monster comes for UCLA and

547
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 4: it's looming for three point shooting, for free throw shooting,

548
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:32,160
Speaker 4: that's the last thing you want when you're facing Gonzaga.

549
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,199
Speaker 4: But I actually think the UCLA has done a good

550
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 4: job against some look, I mean evil Chris does have

551
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 4: a seven footer, you know, then they face Dickinson, but

552
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 4: those are like traditional post bigs. This is a different animal.

553
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 4: And Timmy who you know, He's not just your traditional

554
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 4: back you down and that's all he's going to do.

555
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 4: He can pass, he has elite vision. The entire offense

556
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 4: can flow through him. As just a wide array of

557
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 4: post moves. So I think that this is a really

558
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:58,640
Speaker 4: tough ask. Look, you're right, if the Boglei brothers could

559
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,160
Speaker 4: do it, I'm not sure what Riley can do. He's

560
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 4: done a great job in post defense throughout the tournament. Colin,

561
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 4: let me throw it to you. What do you see

562
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,160
Speaker 4: here in Gonzaga Ucla?

563
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,719
Speaker 3: Well, if you think that this Gonzaga thing is going

564
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,239
Speaker 3: to go away, they're bringing in Drew Timmy's probably going

565
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 3: to stay while Jalen Suggs moves on and Jalen Sugg's

566
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 3: old high school teammate, Chet Holmgren seven foot top of

567
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 3: the class coming in to play with Drew Timmy next year.

568
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:23,719
Speaker 3: So if you want some entertainment on the side, go

569
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:27,360
Speaker 3: look up some Chet Holmgren video highlights on YouTube.

570
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 1: Gonzaga is going to be right back here next year.

571
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:30,400
Speaker 1: It's insane.

572
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 3: Let's talk about what UCLA has to do not to win,

573
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 3: to cover. And there's been this Gonzaga at tax like

574
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:39,959
Speaker 3: the last two months. Like Ken Palm has a number,

575
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 3: the market's three points higher. And it goes back to

576
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:46,439
Speaker 3: LSU twenty nineteen football, where a bunch of people that

577
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 3: do mathematics and spreadsheets like myself say the numbers should

578
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 3: be this, but the markets at this, so there must

579
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 3: be value. But I mean, trending metrics are a real

580
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 3: thing that you have to take in at the end

581
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:57,360
Speaker 3: of the season, and I don't think that we can

582
00:27:57,440 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 3: exactly calculate how good Gonzaga is.

583
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 1: So what does UCLA have to do to just cover

584
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:02,680
Speaker 1: the fourteen?

585
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 3: I mean, Johnny Jusang has to completely dominate on the

586
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 3: offensive side of the of the court and don sure

587
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 3: if that's possible. Tiger Campbell has to make every assist.

588
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 3: He has to get his hands and transition defense and

589
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,439
Speaker 3: poke some balls out. Cody Riley has to stay out

590
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 3: of foul trouble. Jimei Hakes Junior has to have more

591
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 3: Alabama step back.

592
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 1: Three pointers go in.

593
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 3: It's there's I think there's been that shot quality tweet

594
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,159
Speaker 3: that was put out and about what U say has

595
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 3: had to do to this point.

596
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 1: I think shows kind of how lucky they are to

597
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:35,440
Speaker 1: be here at this point. And I love UCLA.

598
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,639
Speaker 3: I mean, I've had a future on them the entire season,

599
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 3: but I know that they're on house money and it's

600
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 3: not because they're uber talented and they're just you know,

601
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 3: dominating at the right time.

602
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 1: They they've had some serious luck come their way.

603
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 3: If there's two areas that you can beat Gonzaga, it's

604
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 3: attacking the rim.

605
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 1: I don't think UCLA can pull that off.

606
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 3: And there's two other metrics that are actually falling for Gonzaga,

607
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 3: and I mentioned this on the last podcast. One is

608
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 3: pace and the the other is forced turnovers. So when

609
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 3: you look at pace dropping off, you could say that

610
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 3: that's opponent dependent. You could say the opponent points per possession.

611
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 3: You know, the reason why there's a sag there is

612
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 3: because of you know, some of the style of play.

613
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 1: But the pace is real. Gonzaga's pace of play.

614
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 3: Is really dipping down from where they were a month ago,

615
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 3: two months ago, and then their forced turnovers are starting

616
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,959
Speaker 3: to evaporate. Even though they're winning these games, they're not

617
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 3: forcing the ball to be taken away. If you look

618
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 3: at UCLA outside the top three hundred and offensive pace,

619
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 3: I think that there is a very real chance here.

620
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 3: The Gonzaga is up by twenty and they are not

621
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 3: forcing and pushing tempo on UCLA, and I think it

622
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 3: could happen pretty fast. So we just saw Gonzaga balance

623
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 3: between fourteen and twenty four point leads, and they're not

624
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 3: exactly firing up and down the court. So for me,

625
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 3: I think it's it's gross and I'm not going to

626
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 3: enjoy it very much.

627
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: I'm taking the under in this game.

628
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 3: I think there's a chance can Zact is comfortably ahead

629
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 3: and that way they're not pushing pace and really, tell

630
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 3: you the truth, the only person on the UCLA's team

631
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 3: that shoots before the entire clock is up is Johnny

632
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 3: juz If Johnny Juzan has an open look, he's gonna

633
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 3: fire with fifteen seconds left on the clock. But if

634
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 3: you know, if Gonzaga plays defense, you know, like they're

635
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 3: capable of, there may not be any open shots here.

636
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 3: So I like the under in this game quite a bit.

637
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean Gonzaga is their pace is going down.

638
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 4: I mean they're just there and they're putting up fiftieth

639
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 4: a half and then they have a huge lead under

640
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 4: just sitting on it. It's not like the regular Seas

641
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 4: when they're trying to put up one hundred. It's the

642
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 4: tournament and it's like, all right, we're gonna win. And

643
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 4: you saw that against USC They basically led the clock

644
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 4: out for the last ten minutes. There's a couple of

645
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 4: things that I do like for Ucla here because I

646
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 4: think that where it would just potentially lead to a

647
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 4: cover or impact the total because in order for this

648
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 4: to go over, and I actually show a slight bit

649
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 4: of value on the over just from a numbers perspective,

650
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 4: but I'm not betting it. I the one thing I

651
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 4: might I might look at the Gonzaga team total over.

652
00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 4: But what this is dependent on is UCLA success on

653
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 4: the offensive side, if you like, keeps Gonzaga just interested

654
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 4: right for thirty five minutes, which means that they could

655
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 4: be down fifteen to twenty at some point. But if

656
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 4: they're making and what UCLA has done all the tournament

657
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 4: is they just have these runs where they just make

658
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 4: every shot. If they can cut it to like eight

659
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 4: to ten with eight to go, with twelve to go,

660
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 4: or that keeps Knzaga interested with their foot on the guests.

661
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 4: If it's twenty get and UCLA could never get to

662
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 4: within fifteen, or if Ucla then Knzaga is going to

663
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 4: bleed it out at the end and it's probably gonna

664
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 4: go under and UCLA is not going to cover. UCLI

665
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,959
Speaker 4: would be it would really benefit them to get out

666
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 4: to a really fast start here. And at least they

667
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 4: don't turn the ball over, right, they're Tiger Campbell's excellent

668
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 4: with the ball. And if you just turn the ball

669
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 4: over at the top of the key against you know,

670
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 4: Sugs and the Goodzaga pressure that they'll apply extended at times,

671
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 4: you turn it over against them. You don't even get

672
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 4: a shot off against Gonzaga, and then you allow them

673
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 4: to get in transition. That's a death sentence. So at

674
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 4: least Usula doesn't turn it over. They do. I think

675
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 4: that they can have some success in the pick and roll,

676
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,239
Speaker 4: and they're gonna get some two point jumpers. They can

677
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 4: when Timmy's in there, you know they can use it.

678
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 4: I think that he's vulnerable. I mean, he's he just

679
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 4: not great out well. Defensively, Kissburt is very average. So

680
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 4: if you look at the Gonzaga defense, they're fifty to

681
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 4: fifty ninth percentile against spot up shot. So like you can,

682
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 4: they're all the best perimeter defenders outside of Suggs, and

683
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 4: they have some length with a Yai and then they're

684
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 4: the seventeenth percentile on post defense, so you can go

685
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 4: at Timmy, which can Riley stay out of foul trouble

686
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 4: because he if he's in I think it's a huge

687
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:39,840
Speaker 4: key to the game because I think he can have

688
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 4: some success offensively. But if he's out of the game

689
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 4: and you got to go to Nuaba, like, I don't

690
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 4: think he's slowing down Timmy in the post and he

691
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 4: doesn't bring anything offensively, I think Riley can have some success.

692
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 4: It's actually one of the props that I like in

693
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 4: this game. With Riley over nine and a half points,

694
00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 4: He's scored in double figures in eight of his past twelve.

695
00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 4: I think that all have some success against Timmy, and

696
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 4: I think he's just gonna get a ton of minutes

697
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 4: even if he's in a benefitter where they need his

698
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 4: offense on the floor. If he fouls out though or

699
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 4: like is in extreme foul trouble, that's that's the main

700
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 4: concern against. But I'm hoping that the final four game

701
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 4: Roughs let them play a little more. You side's gonna

702
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 4: have to hit shots. Look, this is not they are

703
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 4: like they take the fifth most two point jumpers. They

704
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 4: are like three hundred and thirty fifth in RIOM in

705
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 4: three rate on papers is a super inefficient offen but

706
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 4: they make these shots there. It's just that's a disaster

707
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 4: trying to keep up with this Kenzaga juggernaut. You're just

708
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 4: taking a ton of two point jumpers. But at least

709
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 4: they don't turn it over. I think Riley can have

710
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 4: some success in the post. Are their perimeter players making

711
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 4: their outside shots to keep them hanging around in the

712
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 4: ten to fifteen range. If they are, they'll have a

713
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 4: good shot to cover late and this game will go

714
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 4: over because Gonzaga has to keep their foot on the gas.

715
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 4: But if you think Gonzaga is just gonna blow them out,

716
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:55,959
Speaker 4: then it might be. It might go how a lot

717
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 4: of Gonzaga games have gone this tournament. Get a big lead.

718
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 4: I think they their average first half lead this year

719
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 4: is over fourteen points per game. Baylor in Houston are

720
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 4: second at around ten. They get a big lead, they

721
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 4: score a lot of points the first half, the game

722
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 4: looks like it's gonna go over, and it ends up

723
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:15,239
Speaker 4: not going over, and Gonzaga maybe sneaks over their team

724
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,120
Speaker 4: total over. That's been like the formula all tournament. Radill,

725
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 4: let me bring you back in there. Anything to add

726
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 4: on Gonzaga you said it's a it's.

727
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 6: A great call. With the Riley prophets burned me twice.

728
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 6: The exact logic that you just said stuck is why

729
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 6: I bet him over in each of the last two games,

730
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 6: and it has not hit because of foul trouble. If

731
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 6: he stays on the court, I think he crests that

732
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 6: no problem. The reason that I struggle is because I

733
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 6: think Juwan Howard, who was coach NAM Coach of the Year,

734
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 6: had a fantastic year, had a terrible game against UCLA.

735
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:47,320
Speaker 6: His go to offense down the stretch was an NBA offense.

736
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:50,800
Speaker 6: They were going four out one in letting Dickinson, and

737
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 6: when Dickinson wasn't in letting Austin Davis go one on one.

738
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:55,280
Speaker 6: That's your offense.

739
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 4: In an Elite eight game.

740
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 6: With Shandy Brown, Mike Smith, Wagner had a terrible game.

741
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 6: But these are guys who can cut off the post.

742
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,240
Speaker 6: They can back door, they can the double wasn't coming,

743
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 6: but they weren't even relocating the spots to allow that

744
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,279
Speaker 6: double if it were to come. To take advantage of it,

745
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 6: Gonzaga is not going to do that. They feed Timmy.

746
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 6: Timmy can pass high post he's going to turn and

747
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 6: look backdoor cuts, weak side pick and pop. There are

748
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 6: just so many other things. I think UCLA was bailed

749
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 6: out by the fact that Michigan became an NBA offense,

750
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 6: just thinking that Hunter Dickinson could take them home. I

751
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 6: just don't think he was ready to do that. As

752
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 6: great Ayr as he was, he's still a freshman in

753
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 6: a laiti A game. Drew Timmy is a better player

754
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 6: than Dickinson. And Gonzaga with their offense, and we haven't

755
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 6: even mentioned Andrew Nemhart, by the way, are not going

756
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 6: to stand around and are going to force Ucla to

757
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 6: defend off a post speed and that's going to be

758
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:45,399
Speaker 6: really tough for them.

759
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 4: Yeah. One other things to note here is Ucla they're

760
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,279
Speaker 4: gonna any fatigue here? I don't know. I mean, they're

761
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 4: college kids, they've been in the same place, but their

762
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:56,400
Speaker 4: starters have played two hundred and four more minutes in Gonzaga.

763
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 4: Is this third game of the week. If it's a

764
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 4: faster game, maybe like to become an issue in the

765
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 4: second half for a team that relies on a lot

766
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:06,319
Speaker 4: of two point jumpers. They've It's been a crazy run

767
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 4: for UCLA. I didn't really bake it into my line,

768
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 4: but something worth noting. But yeah, I mean this, this

769
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:14,759
Speaker 4: UCLA defense is playing so well, but they're just they're

770
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 4: getting No one's making free throws, no one's making threes.

771
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 4: All year, it's not not been a great perimeter defense,

772
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 4: not in the least. They Additionally, like everyone on the

773
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 4: other team's best players seem to be having like their

774
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 4: worst games right, Like, I mean, what was that from Wagner.

775
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 4: I mean, then you get rog, you get a missed,

776
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 4: he gets a wide open three to tie the airballs it.

777
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 4: Michigan goes oh of eight in the final five minutes.

778
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,439
Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, Juwan Howard did not have a great day,

779
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 4: but neither did like almost anybody on Michigan. So yeah,

780
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 4: it's hard to see Ucla. I can't envision any world

781
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,280
Speaker 4: where UCLA wins this game unless Gonzaga is just completely

782
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 4: off and UCLA cannot miss, and even then it's gonna

783
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:56,719
Speaker 4: be an uphill climb. Maybe Zaga goes. UCLA's game plan

784
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 4: here is to just foul every possession with their free

785
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:01,720
Speaker 4: throw defense. I think I'd to do that last weekend.

786
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,839
Speaker 4: Zaga goes dagger, goes twelve to forty four from the line.

787
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 4: You seel like can win this game. And Gonzaga is

788
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 4: a good free throw shooting team, but who cares? It

789
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 4: doesn't matter when you're a good free throw shooting team

790
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 4: against the best free throw shooting defense in tournament history.

791
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 1: Yeah.

792
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:14,719
Speaker 4: The other thing I'm looking at is what is what

793
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:17,840
Speaker 4: is Mick Cronin, who I think is a great coach.

794
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:19,919
Speaker 4: What is he going to come up with defensively here

795
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 4: that I think will lead into what happens with the spread,

796
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 4: with the total, with some of these props. Is he

797
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 4: going to go try to go zone? Is he going

798
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 4: to say I'm going under every screen, I'm just gonna

799
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 4: box everything in. I mean, Knzaga is not a three

800
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 4: point reliant team, right like it's Suggs is improving and

801
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 4: like Kisspurt's a dead eye sharpshooter. But it's not like

802
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 4: a and they all there's a lot of them that

803
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 4: can hit it, but it's not a three point li

804
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 4: ne team at all. But they have guys who can

805
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 4: shoot it. But do you just say, like I am

806
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:56,280
Speaker 4: going to dare Gonzaga, Like I can't stop them in transition,

807
00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 4: so and I can't stop their motion and their cut

808
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 4: and Timmy in the post. So I'm like doubling Timmy.

809
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 4: I'm packing everything in, going under every screen, and I'm

810
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 4: just making Gonzaga shoot open threes and hoping they miss them.

811
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 4: I mean, that would be the what I would try

812
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 4: to do, just to increase the variance. Like here, Gonzaga,

813
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:19,919
Speaker 4: I don't care Kisburt. You can shoot three open threes

814
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 4: to everyone shoot open threes. It's better than an open

815
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,200
Speaker 4: layup drill, which is all Gonzaga has been doing this year.

816
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 4: And then the other tricky part is a big part

817
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 4: of UCLA's game is their offensive rebounding. It's a good team,

818
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:35,400
Speaker 4: it's a good rebounding team as a whole. But do

819
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 4: they just say like we're not going to attack the

820
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 4: glass at all, Like we shoot and we run back,

821
00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 4: everyone gets back to try and do it to keep

822
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,279
Speaker 4: Gonzaga on a transitions at all costs, I just I

823
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 4: don't even know how you do that. Like UCLA is

824
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 4: very good top twenty five in points per possession and

825
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 4: transition defense per Synergy, But I mean, you look at

826
00:38:55,800 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 4: what Gonzaga has done against other great transition defenses USC BYU.

827
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,799
Speaker 4: They've just treaded them all year, So I don't know

828
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 4: what you can do at any rend. Any thoughts on

829
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 4: what you think Coronin might do.

830
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 6: Four things I said on the action article to be

831
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 6: Gonzaga that you have to do if you look back

832
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:14,799
Speaker 6: to the last five years when they've been knocked out

833
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 6: one stellar defense, Okay, UCLA can do that, They're going

834
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 6: to have to try to take away the three pointer.

835
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 6: I don't think they can let Gonzaga do that. Where

836
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 6: they're going to have to give a little is rebounding

837
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 6: is overrated. The teams that have defeated Gonzaga, they have

838
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:32,239
Speaker 6: usually been out rebounded by Gonzaga. So now that's when

839
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 6: you had great players like patrusse F and those guys

840
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:37,560
Speaker 6: inside Shimmi Karnowski a solid player. You have to give

841
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:39,919
Speaker 6: something up. You can't go for everything. So if there's

842
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 6: a choice to be made, I think Cronin's going to

843
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 6: try to take away the three. The free throws are

844
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 6: a big deal too, which is laughable because actually Gonzaga

845
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 6: has it shot free throw as well in those losses

846
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,719
Speaker 6: the last five years. So maybe UCLA's magic continues and

847
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:56,280
Speaker 6: they have to have some level of offensive efficiency, whether

848
00:39:56,320 --> 00:40:00,760
Speaker 6: that's three point shooting with Bernard and Use and those guys,

849
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 6: or maybe it's the two point efficiency inside with Cody Riley.

850
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 6: So you have to do those four things. I did

851
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 6: not see in any of the past losses in the

852
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 6: five years where Gonzaga has been allowed to shoot well

853
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:13,479
Speaker 6: from three point range and lost. So I think they're

854
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 6: gonna have to allow the two point shots, maybe allow

855
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,319
Speaker 6: some rebounds, and not allow them to sit back there

856
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 6: and shoot threes because if they get up. UCLA is

857
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 6: much like a Wisconsin Virginia loyal to Chicago. Everything they

858
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:29,319
Speaker 6: do is predicated on controlling the game. And you saw

859
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:31,359
Speaker 6: what loyal in Chicago and Oregon State once they had

860
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 6: to start to extend, jump out, get out of the

861
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 6: you know, coming off the screen, and I'm waiting for

862
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 6: you to dribble attack me, and you're gonna extend You're

863
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 6: I'm gonna take the charge. Once it gets out of

864
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 6: that framework, it all falls apart. So UCLA stellar defense,

865
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 6: don't worry about the rebounds as much, but take away

866
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 6: the threes, help the free throw defense keeps going, and

867
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 6: find a way to generate efficient offense. However, cronin C's.

868
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:56,840
Speaker 4: Fit col any other thoughts props or the game anything

869
00:40:57,120 --> 00:40:59,280
Speaker 4: you want to add, well, they randle throughout a perfect

870
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 4: template to the game.

871
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 3: I'm not even sure that is enough to win against

872
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:06,760
Speaker 3: these guys. I mean it's enough set I think Gonzaga

873
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:09,719
Speaker 3: we're looking at an all time team here, similar to

874
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:11,760
Speaker 3: LSU twenty nineteen in college football.

875
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 1: I just don't think we can.

876
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 3: I mean, even the trends that are going down, the force, takeaways,

877
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 3: the opponent's points per possession, and the pace, none of

878
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:22,440
Speaker 3: those indicate that you Sea has to have a perfect

879
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 3: game and have some help to get this done.

880
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:29,600
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909
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 2: the show.

910
00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:57,560
Speaker 4: All right, let's build our final weekend six pack of

911
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 4: the year. It's a very special final four version. We're

912
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 4: going to bring in our guys from Three Man Weave.

913
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 4: We're now joined by Conque and Jim rooton Matt Cox

914
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:09,239
Speaker 4: College Hoops contributors here at the Action Network. You can

915
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 4: catch three Men Weave on Twitter at three MW Underscore

916
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 4: CBB and on the Three Man Weave podcast.

917
00:43:17,239 --> 00:43:19,240
Speaker 1: Six Guys, Six Picks.

918
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 4: It's a college hoops a weekend six package.

919
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 1: Right, gets ride.

920
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 4: Let's kick things off with Jim. Jim, what do you

921
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 4: got brother?

922
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 8: I'm going with player prop here, Mark Videl under twelve

923
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 8: and a half points, rebounds and assists. I think it's

924
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 8: a tough matchup for mister vital here. They got a

925
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 8: really vicious interior defense on the other side of the

926
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:53,719
Speaker 8: court with Houston. They work hard on the glass, they

927
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:56,280
Speaker 8: collapse on all drives and dump offs, and that's.

928
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:56,840
Speaker 1: How he scores.

929
00:43:57,280 --> 00:43:59,799
Speaker 8: Not a post up guy, but still a real real

930
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:03,319
Speaker 8: time off interior matchup with the Houston interior d He

931
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 8: also has really struggled with minutes and staying on the

932
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:07,880
Speaker 8: court lately. He's been in foul trouble three of the

933
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 8: four NCAA Tournament games that they played so far. Houston

934
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 8: definitely a downhill attacking team that's going to be all

935
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:16,359
Speaker 8: over him on the glass. I think that's a problem

936
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 8: for him too. And then just simply the rebound factor.

937
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:22,319
Speaker 8: It's gonna be tough against this Houston team. They are

938
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 8: one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country.

939
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 8: Vital Is gonna have issues trying to compete on the

940
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 8: glass there. They'll not be able to go to the

941
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 8: Vital at center lineup, which really juices his rebound totals.

942
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 8: They're gonna have to keep a true center on the court.

943
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:38,120
Speaker 8: I think that hurts him. Mark Vital under twelve and

944
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 8: a half points, rebounds and assists.

945
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 4: All right, good stuff, Jim Kai, What do you got.

946
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:47,320
Speaker 9: As we're going with Jalen Suggs over fourteen point five

947
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:51,399
Speaker 9: points plus one hundred getting some plus value here, guys,

948
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:53,839
Speaker 9: Jalen Suggs is a stud. Everyone should know his name

949
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:58,399
Speaker 9: by now. Freshman Fieno for Gonzaga, arguably second overall pick

950
00:44:58,400 --> 00:44:59,280
Speaker 9: in the NBA draft.

951
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:00,920
Speaker 1: Who's guard him for UCLA?

952
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 9: Tiger Campbell five foot eleven, Tiger Campbell not happening. His

953
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,840
Speaker 9: uses has been high all tournament, twenty two to thirty

954
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:13,399
Speaker 9: three percent usage during the tournament this season, first round

955
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 9: through Elite eight. He scored fifteen points or more in

956
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 9: four of his last six games. He's eleven for twelve

957
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:21,160
Speaker 9: from the free throw line in the tournament. I think

958
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,839
Speaker 9: he steps up here and gets Kenzagged to the title game.

959
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 9: Jalen Suggs over fourteen and a half points plus one hundred.

960
00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:31,000
Speaker 4: I like it. I'll bring us home, Matt, what do

961
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:31,359
Speaker 4: you got?

962
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:35,919
Speaker 7: Unfortunately, I'm fading Johnny the heat wave Jewsang. Yes, it's

963
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 7: a scary proposition after his twenty eight point explosion to

964
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:41,440
Speaker 7: get to the final four, but if you watch that

965
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 7: game closely, which we all did, this wasn't some three

966
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 7: point barage. This was a dazzling display of tough shot

967
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 7: making against the shorter undersize Eli Brooks. I think the

968
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 7: regression forces are strong against mister jews Ang, especially when

969
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 7: you when you factor in the fact that the Zags

970
00:45:57,560 --> 00:46:00,160
Speaker 7: are going to have three long wings likely to be

971
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 7: slotted on him. Jalen Sung's phenomenal defender Corey Kisper with

972
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:07,320
Speaker 7: that length, and Joela Yai at six' five plus positional

973
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:09,680
Speaker 7: size as. Well expect to see all three of those

974
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 7: guys in some combinations slotted On. JEWSANG i gotta think

975
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 7: those shots are not going to. Fall we saw Against

976
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,840
Speaker 7: alabama the round, prior similar type OF dna with long

977
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 7: wingy type perimeter defenders four twelve from inside the. ARC

978
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 7: i think more of a true function of What juuseaning

979
00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:25,240
Speaker 7: is going to do from an efficiency.

980
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:27,359
Speaker 1: Perspective, however there are concerns about.

981
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:29,720
Speaker 7: Usage he's been taking a lot of, shots so he's

982
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:31,840
Speaker 7: if the volume's, there you have to be. Worried BUT

983
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 7: i do you think mc cronin wants to play this

984
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:36,160
Speaker 7: game at a, crawl which will limit, possessions you, know

985
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:38,400
Speaker 7: to some. Degree on top of, THAT i think he

986
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:40,960
Speaker 7: wants to Feature Cody riley inside in hopes of trying

987
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:43,360
Speaker 7: to Get Drew timmy in foul trouble given how dominant

988
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 7: he's been so all things, CONSIDER i think it's to

989
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 7: be tough For jusying to. SCORE i think the opportunities

990
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:49,759
Speaker 7: will shrink relative to what we've seen in years. Past

991
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 7: Johnny's jusang under eighteen and a half.

992
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 4: Points, YEAH i MEAN i agree this THIS i was

993
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:57,960
Speaker 4: on the Under, JUSAN i think what over in the first.

994
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:00,399
Speaker 4: Half this number is way inflated based on he's done,

995
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:03,719
Speaker 4: recently but looks he might. Have he's going to get

996
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 4: some open looks off screening action on the, perimeter maybe

997
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 4: get some mismatches and get some two point. Jumpers but

998
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:11,719
Speaker 4: there is no doubt that this number is. Overinflated And

999
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:13,960
Speaker 4: i'm sure That Mark few is going to say we

1000
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:17,279
Speaker 4: are not letting juws ayg beat, us which is basically

1001
00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 4: what has happened in a few games this. Tournament i'm

1002
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:22,200
Speaker 4: gonna build on something that matches said my pick is

1003
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:25,399
Speaker 4: going to BE i mentioned it. Earlier Cody riley over

1004
00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:28,880
Speaker 4: nine and a half. Points he's gone over this in

1005
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 4: eight of his past twelve. GAMES i think he can

1006
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:34,799
Speaker 4: have some success Against timmy in the. POST i think, That,

1007
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:38,040
Speaker 4: look the foul trouble is, concerning but it's the final.

1008
00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 4: Four maybe they Res swelder whistles a little more and

1009
00:47:41,640 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 4: you have to really keep them in. Here you have.

1010
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 4: To you. Can't, really it's not a game Against michigan

1011
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:49,320
Speaker 4: in the forties where you can just bring In laba

1012
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 4: and afford to just go ten minutes without his. Offense

1013
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 4: SO i think he'll be. STRETCHED i think he's gonna be.

1014
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 4: FED i think it's a great point That matt brings

1015
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:58,800
Speaker 4: up with try and Getting timmy in foul trouble by Feeding.

1016
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 4: Riley So i'm Going Cody riley over nine and a half. Points,

1017
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:04,279
Speaker 4: radle what do you?

1018
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 6: Got i'm Going Jules bernard under eighteen and a half,

1019
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:10,840
Speaker 6: points rebounds and. Assists he is not the type of

1020
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 6: guy who's gonna dribble. Penetrate he relies on the short

1021
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:16,600
Speaker 6: jumpers and the three. Pointers scalding hot from three Against,

1022
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:18,800
Speaker 6: alabama went four to four there towards the end of

1023
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 6: the first, half finished with seventeen. Points he has really

1024
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 6: been bolstered his totals by being able to, rebound WHICH

1025
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 6: i don't think is gonna happen in this. Game you

1026
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:29,640
Speaker 6: have guys on the other side For gonzaga who get

1027
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:33,880
Speaker 6: rebounds at a high. Rate Nemhart A, Yahi Jalen suggs

1028
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 6: has been. Tremendous SO i think rebounds are going to be,

1029
00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 6: scarce AND i think he's going to. STRUGGLE i don't

1030
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:40,760
Speaker 6: think he's gonna hit. POINTS i think the perimeter defense

1031
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 6: For gonzaga is very. STRONG i know they're gonna have

1032
00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:45,320
Speaker 6: to go To uzang and jakez AND i Think riley

1033
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:47,160
Speaker 6: could if he stays on the, court get some points as.

1034
00:48:47,160 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 6: Well Tiger campbell gets to the, LINE i don't see

1035
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:51,440
Speaker 6: him getting over this. Number if you look at averages

1036
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:54,239
Speaker 6: on the, year it's under this number eighteen and a.

1037
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 6: HALF i think it's really bolstered by the seventeen, points six,

1038
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:59,880
Speaker 6: rebounds and two assists Against. Alabama first that was, overtime

1039
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:02,239
Speaker 6: and second that Was. Alabama this defense is going to

1040
00:49:02,239 --> 00:49:04,399
Speaker 6: be a lot different unless he gets hot from. THREE

1041
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 6: i don't see him hitting. This Jules bernard under eighteen

1042
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 6: and a half, points rebounds and.

1043
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 4: Assists colin bring us.

1044
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 1: Out, Yeah i'm going to do A Houston baylor.

1045
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:14,719
Speaker 3: OVER i think these are two teams that shoot an

1046
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 3: incredible amount of three. Pointers both are in top fifty

1047
00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:20,080
Speaker 3: five in a three point. Rate baylor specifically is the

1048
00:49:20,080 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 3: best three point shooting team in the. NATION i think

1049
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:23,920
Speaker 3: that they're going to want to push some pace here

1050
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 3: so that they don't have to get into a half

1051
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 3: court offense Against. Houston so not only DO i expect

1052
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:30,960
Speaker 3: a ton of shots and coming from. Deep if they're

1053
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 3: going in that's a lot of points if they miss.

1054
00:49:33,080 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 3: Them these are two of the best offensive rebounding teams

1055
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:38,359
Speaker 3: in the. NATION i think there could be some quick points.

1056
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:39,719
Speaker 3: HERE i don't think they're going to have to use

1057
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 3: that twenty seconds after they get the. Rebound you, Know

1058
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:44,359
Speaker 3: Houston baylor over one thirty four number THAT i would

1059
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:44,920
Speaker 3: play up to one.

1060
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 4: FORTY i would lean that way as well in the over.

1061
00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:48,839
Speaker 4: One thing to note in some of These final four

1062
00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:51,359
Speaker 4: games and in The National championship On monday said this,

1063
00:49:51,400 --> 00:49:54,920
Speaker 4: before these are huge, games right Like final Four National.

1064
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 4: CHAMPIONSHIP a lot of times you see teams come. Out

1065
00:49:57,239 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 4: they might come out a little FLAT i should say,

1066
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:03,840
Speaker 4: flap but like nervous, tight and then it takes a

1067
00:50:03,840 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 4: little bit for the game to get. Going remember That Virginia,

1068
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:09,120
Speaker 4: TECH i mean The Virginia Texas Tech National. CHAMPIONSHIP i

1069
00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:10,759
Speaker 4: mean that was like no one scored for eight minutes

1070
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:13,480
Speaker 4: and then the game ended in like the. Hundreds so

1071
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:15,080
Speaker 4: if you want an over and you have some over

1072
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:17,239
Speaker 4: and then it's like a really slow, start you might

1073
00:50:17,280 --> 00:50:19,920
Speaker 4: want to look to maybe add some. Live if they

1074
00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:23,080
Speaker 4: come out just a little, tight things start to generally pick.

1075
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 4: Up people shake off the nerves and. Runs it's just

1076
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:28,160
Speaker 4: a basketball. Game, colin let me before we get out of,

1077
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 4: here what are you doing with your? Futures, yeah THE.

1078
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:31,880
Speaker 1: Ucla there's NOTHING i can, do.

1079
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:34,080
Speaker 3: Right i've got a two hundred and fifty dollars ticket

1080
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:37,240
Speaker 3: preseason eighty to one ON ucla to cash out for twenty.

1081
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:41,160
Speaker 3: Thousand so What i've got is two grand set, aside

1082
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:44,319
Speaker 3: and IF i can Get gonzaga to, somehow for some

1083
00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 3: reason be within ten points in a live, line something

1084
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:49,239
Speaker 3: that they haven't been in a really long. TIME i

1085
00:50:49,280 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 3: feel like THE byu game is the last time the

1086
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:55,320
Speaker 3: live market actually Had gonzaga at a pick or plus.

1087
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:59,800
Speaker 3: One so the, GOAL i, Mean gonzaga is minus a

1088
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:01,920
Speaker 3: hundred in the market on the money, Line SO i

1089
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:04,960
Speaker 3: don't think it benefits me to take that two grand

1090
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:06,880
Speaker 3: and try to get my two hundred and fifty dollars.

1091
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:08,319
Speaker 1: Back it's just not worth it at that.

1092
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:11,000
Speaker 3: Point SO i think the BEST i can do is

1093
00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:15,359
Speaker 3: hope that for some odd, REASON ucla is within three

1094
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:18,520
Speaker 3: possessions and the live line, is you, know underneath, ten

1095
00:51:18,560 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 3: And i've got a good looking money line around minus

1096
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:23,800
Speaker 3: five hundred THAT i can lay into instead of laying into.

1097
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:24,360
Speaker 1: That minus eleven.

1098
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:26,799
Speaker 3: HUNDRED i think that's the worst route possible if you,

1099
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:30,839
Speaker 3: wanted And i've considered, THIS i Think gonzaga minus one

1100
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:34,800
Speaker 3: ninety hanging out around is a good.

1101
00:51:34,640 --> 00:51:36,320
Speaker 1: Look for a national championship.

1102
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:38,680
Speaker 3: Future if you're holding onto one of THESE ucla, tickets

1103
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:40,960
Speaker 3: you know, that would you, know give you a number

1104
00:51:41,000 --> 00:51:42,719
Speaker 3: that is going to be better than the money line

1105
00:51:43,160 --> 00:51:44,239
Speaker 3: in The national championship.

1106
00:51:44,239 --> 00:51:45,600
Speaker 1: Game national championship game.

1107
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 3: Against baylor should be about minus twenty, five SO i

1108
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:49,600
Speaker 3: would go up to that. Point SO i think that's

1109
00:51:49,600 --> 00:51:51,239
Speaker 3: the only thing you can do is either play live

1110
00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:54,560
Speaker 3: or take A gonzaga future and try to get it

1111
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:57,319
Speaker 3: above that minus or get it below the minus one eighty.

1112
00:51:57,360 --> 00:51:59,680
Speaker 3: Mark interesting, enough one of the books out In vegas

1113
00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:03,160
Speaker 3: set the line at plus one twenty five On gonzaga Over,

1114
00:52:03,320 --> 00:52:05,560
Speaker 3: baylor and they set the LINE i think at plus

1115
00:52:05,719 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 3: two sixty five they Can zaga Over. Houston so you

1116
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:10,279
Speaker 3: can split a couple half units on that if you're

1117
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:11,280
Speaker 3: holding onto A ucla.

1118
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 4: Ticket, YEAH i don't think that that's a bad. IDEA i,

1119
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:16,600
Speaker 4: mean people have to remember how hard it is to,

1120
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:19,280
Speaker 4: hedge and this just shows you you have a eighty

1121
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 4: to one ticket the final, four but you're a fourteen point,

1122
00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 4: underdog so your options are. Limited and it's just it's

1123
00:52:27,640 --> 00:52:30,080
Speaker 4: a good lesson for if you tried to hedge your

1124
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 4: eighty to one in like The sweet, sixteen you'd be

1125
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:35,799
Speaker 4: up a creek right. Now even if you look a

1126
00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:37,440
Speaker 4: lot of times you'd SAY i wouldn't have won a,

1127
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 4: game and then you would have, returned you would have

1128
00:52:39,000 --> 00:52:42,759
Speaker 4: got your. Unibat but sometimes these underdogs keep winning and

1129
00:52:42,760 --> 00:52:45,279
Speaker 4: then all of a sudden you are screwed and you

1130
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:48,279
Speaker 4: will be in a losing position no matter. What SO

1131
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:50,399
Speaker 4: i think it's a good lesson here that even when

1132
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 4: you get an eighty one ticket to the final, four

1133
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:56,600
Speaker 4: and that's generally MY i always, say like one hundred

1134
00:52:56,600 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 4: to one or, More i'm looking to get it to

1135
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:01,160
Speaker 4: the final four And i'll. Hedge but a lot of

1136
00:53:01,160 --> 00:53:02,759
Speaker 4: times you will be able to hatch the final, four

1137
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 4: but it's not, guaranteed and especially when you have a

1138
00:53:04,719 --> 00:53:08,640
Speaker 4: juggernaut like Like. Gonzaga but right, on any, thoughts, No i'm.

1139
00:53:08,960 --> 00:53:10,719
Speaker 6: Listen i'd love to See colin get one of these.

1140
00:53:10,760 --> 00:53:13,319
Speaker 6: Home it'd be, fantastic. MAN i imagine if you get

1141
00:53:13,320 --> 00:53:15,360
Speaker 6: TO Ucla, houston could.

1142
00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:19,839
Speaker 4: You, Imagine, yeah that'll be the consolation surprised if one

1143
00:53:19,840 --> 00:53:22,680
Speaker 4: of them. Wins i'll be happy For colin BECAUSE i

1144
00:53:22,680 --> 00:53:25,680
Speaker 4: really do Want Kizaga. BAYLOR i, MEAN i think that'll

1145
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:28,319
Speaker 4: be the best. Game but if that doesn't, happen at

1146
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 4: Least colin you can get one of these to the national.

1147
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:31,120
Speaker 4: Titles so what About.

1148
00:53:31,160 --> 00:53:33,839
Speaker 3: HOUSTON i believe and EVERYTHING i just. Said i've got

1149
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:36,399
Speaker 3: money On. Houston i'm not laying anything pre. Game i'm

1150
00:53:36,440 --> 00:53:38,560
Speaker 3: not trying to sell this. TICKET i got two hundred

1151
00:53:38,560 --> 00:53:41,560
Speaker 3: and fifty dollars invested that wins twenty. Grand so What

1152
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:43,440
Speaker 3: i'm going to do with this, GAME i have another

1153
00:53:43,440 --> 00:53:46,800
Speaker 3: two thousand dollars set. ASIDE i actually think this is

1154
00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:48,520
Speaker 3: a game that Where i'm going to get a live

1155
00:53:48,600 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 3: line at a pick and maybe IF i can Get

1156
00:53:50,560 --> 00:53:53,640
Speaker 3: baylor plus two plus three plus three live in, Game

1157
00:53:53,680 --> 00:53:55,640
Speaker 3: i'll fire the two grand on that and maybe middle.

1158
00:53:55,680 --> 00:53:58,200
Speaker 3: It so it's another game Where i'm going to take

1159
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 3: two grand off of the top of this and try

1160
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:02,800
Speaker 3: to get some down On, baylor whether It's baylor minus,

1161
00:54:02,840 --> 00:54:05,920
Speaker 3: one two plus, three and then ONCE i get that,

1162
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:08,560
Speaker 3: down you, know If baylor wins the. Game, Great i've

1163
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:11,000
Speaker 3: covered my futures. Ticket just find me a little bit of.

1164
00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:14,359
Speaker 3: Profit if they lose the, game Then i'm going in

1165
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:17,279
Speaker 3: with a two two hundred and fifty dollars ticket to

1166
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:19,840
Speaker 3: win twenty thousand Against gonzaga and we'll regroup.

1167
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:25,120
Speaker 4: Then, yeah and you also could for the you see,

1168
00:54:25,200 --> 00:54:28,720
Speaker 4: whatever there's two, games like if you If houston wins

1169
00:54:30,360 --> 00:54:36,160
Speaker 4: the first, game then it changes the dynamic of the

1170
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:40,640
Speaker 4: national title projected, line so you can then. Reevaluate and

1171
00:54:40,640 --> 00:54:42,480
Speaker 4: then also you Have houston in the national, title so

1172
00:54:42,520 --> 00:54:45,600
Speaker 4: that these things are dynamic as. Well if you're looking

1173
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 4: to play any look at, UTS i actually would take

1174
00:54:48,239 --> 00:54:50,279
Speaker 4: and these things that get, refunded if you're playing these

1175
00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:54,480
Speaker 4: refunded look, AHEADLINES i actually would TAKE ucla plus eight

1176
00:54:54,560 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 4: and a half Against baylor OR ucla whatever it is Against.

1177
00:54:59,000 --> 00:55:02,160
Speaker 4: Houston and the reason is IS i think that IF ucli Beats,

1178
00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 4: gonzaga like number, one the bump THAT i will have

1179
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:07,960
Speaker 4: to give, them and number two the public and these

1180
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:11,000
Speaker 4: are public money influences these. Games it's the final four,

1181
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:15,360
Speaker 4: necessarily the public perception OF ucla then after Beating, gonzaga

1182
00:55:15,719 --> 00:55:17,560
Speaker 4: and it's a no risk, thing right LIKE i, MEAN

1183
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:19,600
Speaker 4: i just think that you could get them plus eight

1184
00:55:19,640 --> 00:55:21,799
Speaker 4: and a half sagains. BAILER i think that line might

1185
00:55:21,840 --> 00:55:26,480
Speaker 4: be like six if THE ucla actually Beats gonzaga and

1186
00:55:26,520 --> 00:55:28,359
Speaker 4: then you, have like you could lay six with bail

1187
00:55:28,360 --> 00:55:30,880
Speaker 4: you can always come. Back most likely you're just getting,

1188
00:55:30,920 --> 00:55:33,440
Speaker 4: refunded and it's it's like you're just the money's tied

1189
00:55:33,480 --> 00:55:37,040
Speaker 4: up for a day and a half or a. Day you're,

1190
00:55:37,080 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 4: Not you're you just get it refunded right when the

1191
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:43,360
Speaker 4: games are over On. Saturday but that's that's something to

1192
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:45,160
Speaker 4: keep in mind as well when you're projecting the. Lines

1193
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:47,680
Speaker 4: if you would have such a massive up upset LIKE

1194
00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:52,239
Speaker 4: ucla Over, gonzaga the they would obviously warrant a big

1195
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:54,480
Speaker 4: bump in your empower, ratings and then like the public

1196
00:55:54,520 --> 00:55:58,359
Speaker 4: perception bump that the line the look head line might

1197
00:55:58,400 --> 00:55:59,640
Speaker 4: not be reflected that you get What i'm.

1198
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:01,759
Speaker 1: Saying, yeah, Absolutely.

1199
00:56:02,719 --> 00:56:04,759
Speaker 3: And you AND i know this from our college football, days.

1200
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:06,799
Speaker 3: RIGHT i, mean there's going to be an. Adjustment but

1201
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:08,880
Speaker 3: you also have to take into account where is the

1202
00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:11,880
Speaker 3: public love going to be after these two. Games the

1203
00:56:11,880 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 3: team that Conquers goliath is going to be the public.

1204
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:16,719
Speaker 3: Darling so there's no WAY ucla plus eight and a

1205
00:56:16,719 --> 00:56:18,360
Speaker 3: half that's going to exist Against houston Or.

1206
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:19,920
Speaker 1: Baylor the public can move the.

1207
00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:22,239
Speaker 3: Line SO i think THAT ucaa plus eight and a

1208
00:56:22,280 --> 00:56:24,279
Speaker 3: half you get your money back if they if they

1209
00:56:24,320 --> 00:56:25,600
Speaker 3: lose A, Gonzaga SO i don't see what the.

1210
00:56:25,640 --> 00:56:28,480
Speaker 4: Hurt, yeah it's like it's eight, hours, right you'd get

1211
00:56:28,520 --> 00:56:31,160
Speaker 4: it back later that. NIGHT i don't know when they refund, those,

1212
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:35,880
Speaker 4: Right i'll close with. You give me your final score

1213
00:56:35,880 --> 00:56:36,719
Speaker 4: predictions for both.

1214
00:56:36,760 --> 00:56:44,000
Speaker 6: GAMES i think It's gonzaga eighty, TWO ucla, sixty AND

1215
00:56:44,160 --> 00:56:49,760
Speaker 6: i think It's baylor sixty, Six houston fifty.

1216
00:56:49,840 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 1: Seven hopefully we.

1217
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:55,080
Speaker 4: Have some, drama but we hit all of our. BETS i,

1218
00:56:55,160 --> 00:56:57,440
Speaker 4: mean if that, happens we should get a good national.

1219
00:56:57,440 --> 00:57:00,440
Speaker 4: Title but sometimes you have, Look, colin you're right in

1220
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:01,960
Speaker 4: my piece that's going to be out. THERE i previous

1221
00:57:01,960 --> 00:57:05,439
Speaker 4: both final four. GAMES i compared This kenzaga team also

1222
00:57:05,560 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 4: to THAT lsu. Team and there's sometimes and it's SOMETHING

1223
00:57:08,560 --> 00:57:10,879
Speaker 4: i still struggle with with handicapping and setting power. Rating

1224
00:57:10,880 --> 00:57:13,440
Speaker 4: it's like the teams at the very, bottom, right the

1225
00:57:13,480 --> 00:57:16,520
Speaker 4: teams that everyone knows that. SUCK i bet them too,

1226
00:57:16,560 --> 00:57:18,960
Speaker 4: often and like you never realize how much they suck

1227
00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:20,360
Speaker 4: a lot of times until the end of the. Year

1228
00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:23,080
Speaker 4: the teams that are really, good like Both, Polers i'm,

1229
00:57:23,080 --> 00:57:24,680
Speaker 4: like all, RIGHT i think they might be overvalued. Now

1230
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:27,560
Speaker 4: but you sometimes you just you can't catch up to either,

1231
00:57:27,600 --> 00:57:29,920
Speaker 4: one how good or bad they, are and no one

1232
00:57:29,960 --> 00:57:32,240
Speaker 4: could catch. UP i, remember, no it's Not. STIMS i was,

1233
00:57:32,280 --> 00:57:34,200
Speaker 4: LIKE i don't, care there's no, value But i'm betting,

1234
00:57:34,240 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 4: them LIKE i can't get my number, there but they're gonna.

1235
00:57:36,680 --> 00:57:38,960
Speaker 3: Cover let me say, this so we just made the

1236
00:57:39,040 --> 00:57:42,120
Speaker 3: sleeping sound, here, like if it happens the Way randall just,

1237
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:44,400
Speaker 3: said everyone in the book is going to be. Napping

1238
00:57:44,640 --> 00:57:47,760
Speaker 3: and that's exactly WHAT lsu football did for, me who

1239
00:57:47,800 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 3: had eyeballs On stucky during The National championship.

1240
00:57:50,240 --> 00:57:53,080
Speaker 1: Game he was napping DURING Lsu clemson because it wasn't even.

1241
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:55,720
Speaker 3: Close so if it happens the way we think it,

1242
00:57:55,800 --> 00:57:58,720
Speaker 3: is and And gonzaga's trending metrics says they're gonna win

1243
00:57:58,760 --> 00:58:01,880
Speaker 3: by thirty, Specs stucky to be sleeping in the book.

1244
00:58:01,880 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 1: Again On?

1245
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:05,680
Speaker 4: Saturday was that, Mapping oh you were laid? DOWN i

1246
00:58:05,680 --> 00:58:10,920
Speaker 4: think your, YEAH i, was, yeah, clea, YEAH i was laying.

1247
00:58:10,960 --> 00:58:13,480
Speaker 4: DOWN i was just laying across the. Booth yeah it Was,

1248
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:15,680
Speaker 4: uh that was, great but, look we have we've seen it.

1249
00:58:15,720 --> 00:58:17,640
Speaker 4: Before we've seen YOU hadc win every game by double

1250
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:20,440
Speaker 4: digits in the. Tournament it's uh, so maybe they're just

1251
00:58:20,480 --> 00:58:22,280
Speaker 4: one of those, juggernauts BUT i Think bailey can actually

1252
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:24,760
Speaker 4: give them a game at. Least but we will find

1253
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:27,720
Speaker 4: out this. Weekend we appreciate everyone. Listening shout to the

1254
00:58:27,720 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 4: guys at Three man we for joining us all. Season

1255
00:58:30,280 --> 00:58:34,760
Speaker 4: thanks To colin And randall as. Well great work gentlemen all.

1256
00:58:34,800 --> 00:58:38,240
Speaker 4: Season we will be. Back we have we'll have some

1257
00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:43,000
Speaker 4: baseball podcasts we have, uh we're gonna have To collins

1258
00:58:43,000 --> 00:58:45,440
Speaker 4: already into college football where we're gonna have SOME nfl

1259
00:58:45,520 --> 00:58:48,840
Speaker 4: Podcasts i'm gonna do With raybon around the, draft and

1260
00:58:48,880 --> 00:58:51,000
Speaker 4: then before you know it's, summer we'll be. Here we'll

1261
00:58:51,040 --> 00:58:54,320
Speaker 4: have some other podcasts coming. Up and, Uh, RANDALL i

1262
00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:56,600
Speaker 4: appreciate you being on as. Always make sure you check

1263
00:58:56,600 --> 00:58:59,000
Speaker 4: all our stuff Out Actually network Dot Com action WORK.

1264
00:58:59,000 --> 00:59:01,560
Speaker 4: Ap we appreciate all of you who make this podcast

1265
00:59:01,920 --> 00:59:05,040
Speaker 4: and follow us On twitter for all the. Banter let's

1266
00:59:05,080 --> 00:59:06,960
Speaker 4: make it a memorable. Weekend i'm happy that we got

1267
00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:10,959
Speaker 4: through this tournament and. Season so let's close. Strong thanks

1268
00:59:11,000 --> 00:59:13,320
Speaker 4: again for. Listening subscribe on, subscribe subscribe you to the,

1269
00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:16,080
Speaker 4: drill leave a, review tell a, friend telling. Enemy we

1270
00:59:16,160 --> 00:59:19,000
Speaker 4: love all of. You let's have a. Weekend we'll catch

1271
00:59:19,000 --> 00:59:19,480
Speaker 4: you all. Later.

1272
00:59:19,640 --> 00:59:23,120
Speaker 6: Cheers he's, out first time in two. Years final four.

1273
00:59:23,160 --> 00:59:34,760
Speaker 5: Popcorn we're finished. Talking