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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Ley.

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Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Robert

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Speaker 1: Caplan is the president of the Dallas FED. He is

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Speaker 1: also a big Kansas City Chiefs fan. And we thank

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Speaker 1: you for getting up and continuing on, even though that

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Speaker 1: was a rough one. Well, it's always next year will

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Speaker 1: be well. There's a debate on their way about what

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Speaker 1: kind of inflation dangers are out there from additional government spending. UH.

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Speaker 1: And if inflation does break out, you heard John call

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Speaker 1: you the elephant in the room, you gotta deal with it.

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Speaker 1: So what is your estimation if we get the kind

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Speaker 1: of additional stimulus there talking about from Washington, what kind

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Speaker 1: of inflation danger does that present? There's no question that

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Speaker 1: if we're able to get people brought i'llly vaccinated. UH,

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Speaker 1: if we're able to defeat the variants of the virus UH,

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Speaker 1: and we have a reopening as we go through this year,

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Speaker 1: that along with fiscal support, is going to mean that

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Speaker 1: that we have strong GDP growth. We're gonna we're gonna

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Speaker 1: make big improvements on unemployment. And it wouldn't be surprising

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Speaker 1: to see the cyclical elements of inflation build. Uh. And

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Speaker 1: and I think that you're gonna have some supply outages.

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Speaker 1: We're already seen evidence of it. UH, semiconductors, metals, would products. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You may see a little bit of even in in

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Speaker 1: oil markets. But but I don't think those are going

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Speaker 1: to be persistent. I don't think those are going to

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Speaker 1: be long term. But I think there's no question the

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Speaker 1: cyclical forces we will build and over time. The question

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Speaker 1: for me is how strong are the accelerating forces of

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Speaker 1: technology and technology enabled disruption, which have been muting inflationary

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Speaker 1: pressures for some time. How do those two cyclical instructural

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Speaker 1: forces play out over time? That's what I'm gonna be

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Speaker 1: watching for the The The temporary jump been inflation or

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Speaker 1: rise won't surprise me. The question for me will be

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Speaker 1: how persistent is it? And I for me, I think

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Speaker 1: the jury is out on that right now. Well, they're

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Speaker 1: talking about a package that would be three times the

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Speaker 1: size of what the CBO projects the output gap to be.

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Speaker 1: Is that too much? So I'm gonna not surprised, won't

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Speaker 1: surprise you. I'm gonna deliberately stay away from that topic. Uh.

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Speaker 1: What right now at the Dallas FED, before any new

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Speaker 1: package is enacted, we're already our forecast for GDP growth

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Speaker 1: this year is approximately five percent. Uh. It's gonna be

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Speaker 1: again loaded towards the latter parts of the year. And

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Speaker 1: it assumes that we're able to vaccinate the the population

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Speaker 1: broadly and uh and defeat these variants and get more

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Speaker 1: mobility and engagement. I think what I'm hearing in my

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Speaker 1: district is what we need first and foremost, which is

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Speaker 1: being discussed as you know in these package debates. We

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Speaker 1: need more money to help achieve these vaccinations. That's the

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Speaker 1: key right now. Uh. And it's gonna take mobile units,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna take more personnel. But if you can get

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Speaker 1: people broadly vaccinated and get more mobility engagement, that's what

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Speaker 1: will open the small businesses and get a lot of

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Speaker 1: these a lot of these people that are out of

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Speaker 1: work back to work, and more money to reopen schools.

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Speaker 1: In person, schools I'm talking to need to be retrofitted.

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Speaker 1: And we've got a historically high level of women who

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Speaker 1: have left the workforce working mothers uh. And we need

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Speaker 1: schools to be reopened. Uh. And and some investment also

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Speaker 1: in childcare to get those women back into the workforce.

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Speaker 1: That's critical. So those are some of the priorities I

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Speaker 1: hear about. Obviously, extended unemployment benefits to bridge when we're

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Speaker 1: until we're able to get people back to work. That's

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Speaker 1: another priority I'm hearing. But those are some of the

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Speaker 1: things I mentioned. I'll stay away from the debate in Washington.

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Speaker 1: We've got three trillion authorized so far for COVID relief

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Speaker 1: and another two trillion is what they're talking about. The

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Speaker 1: argument has been from Federal Reserve officials that that's sustainable

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Speaker 1: because interest rates are so low and as long as

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Speaker 1: we keep the economy growing faster than the debt will

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Speaker 1: be okay. Are you confident that that can happen, that

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Speaker 1: the economy will grow faster. Uh. We're gonna get a

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Speaker 1: strong boost to GDP growth in which I just talked about,

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Speaker 1: and above trend growth excuse me, and most likely above

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Speaker 1: trend in two. The issue over the horizon, UH is

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Speaker 1: what are we doing to improve sustainable GDP growth? And

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Speaker 1: what do I mean by that? Once we climb out

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Speaker 1: of UH and recover from the whole we're in and

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Speaker 1: recover from COVID. We're gonna get back to some real

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Speaker 1: challenges we had pre COVID. Slowing workforce growth, aging of

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Speaker 1: the population, and productivity growth has not been sufficient to

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Speaker 1: off set that, and so what would help with that?

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Speaker 1: Find ways to improve labor force growth Again, I talked

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Speaker 1: about women reentering the workforce, but also early childhood literacy UH,

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Speaker 1: improving secondary education, skills training, closing the skills gap, more

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Speaker 1: widespread WiFi in the United States. I would love to

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Speaker 1: see more investments in education and some infrastructure items, particularly WiFi,

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Speaker 1: that will help create more sustainable growth. But that will

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Speaker 1: be the challenge that we're gonna be talking about of

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Speaker 1: the horizon, how to improve workforce growth and improve productivity

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Speaker 1: and so will we grow faster than deck grows UH.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna have to find ways to improve GDP growth

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Speaker 1: or otherwise the answer to that. I don't know whether

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Speaker 1: the answer to that will be yes or no otherwise. UM.

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Speaker 1: I know that you and all of your colleagues basically

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Speaker 1: have said it's too early to talk about when you

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Speaker 1: might taper QUE, but I'm wondering how you assess the

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Speaker 1: danger of inflating a bubble in financial markets, which is

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Speaker 1: what a lot of people on Wall Street are talking

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Speaker 1: about now. Uh. And the hundred and twenty billion you're

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Speaker 1: buying a month to keep markets functioning when markets are

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Speaker 1: functioning just fine. Uh. Is there a point at which

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Speaker 1: you think the danger of the markets bubble is bigger

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Speaker 1: than the danger of pulling back just a little bit?

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Speaker 1: So the way I make that trade off. While we're

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Speaker 1: in the teeth of this pandemic, uh, and until it's

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Speaker 1: clear we've weathered the pandemic, I think it's appropriate to

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Speaker 1: be aggressive with our tools. However, once it's clear that

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Speaker 1: we've that we've weathered this pandemic, and we're not out

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Speaker 1: of the woods yet by a long shot. But once

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Speaker 1: it's clear we've weathered the pandemic, and we put this

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Speaker 1: pandemic and the effects of it in the rear view mirror,

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Speaker 1: and we're making substantial progress toward our toward full employment

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Speaker 1: and price stability, I think we'd be far healthier to

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Speaker 1: be weaning off these extraordinary measures. Uh. So that's the issue. UH.

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Speaker 1: And I think as soon as it's clear we've gotten

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Speaker 1: past COVID, which I don't know when that will be.

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Speaker 1: I think would be far healthier to be weaning off

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Speaker 1: these extraordinary measures. Well, Uh, speaking of questions about bubbles

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Speaker 1: in the markets, your initial career was as an investment banker,

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Speaker 1: and now we've got this spack I p O mania

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Speaker 1: going on? What do you think of that? Does that

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Speaker 1: tell you something about where we are in financial markets

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Speaker 1: or or this economic cycle. So I won't comment on

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Speaker 1: any individual situation because there's a lot of factors that

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Speaker 1: go to into any any one of them. But I

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Speaker 1: would say broadly, when you're when you're keeping rates at

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Speaker 1: zero and you've committed to keep rates at zero for

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Speaker 1: an extended period, you're buying eighty billion of treasuries and

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Speaker 1: forty billion of mortgage backed securities, we should expect that

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Speaker 1: that's going to have a material impact on liquidity financial assets.

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Speaker 1: And UH, that's why I've said we'd be wise, as

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Speaker 1: as soon as we're able to uh to wean off

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Speaker 1: these extraordinary measures, because these measures certainly have an impact

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Speaker 1: on financial assets, and we'd be wise at the FED

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Speaker 1: to acknowledge it, and and uh and be very sensitive

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Speaker 1: to it. And and I'm I'm very concerned UH and

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Speaker 1: and watching UH, you know, excess risk taking and excessis

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Speaker 1: and balances, particularly in the non bank financial sector. The

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Speaker 1: issue is, while we're fighting this pandemic, and until it's

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Speaker 1: clear we're out of the woods, I think we've got

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Speaker 1: to be aggressive. So UH. The challenge will be after

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Speaker 1: we it's clear we've weathered it, we've got to we've

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Speaker 1: got to move away from these extraordinary measures, in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: and I think will be far healthier for it. I

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Speaker 1: know the FED doesn't regulate equity trading except for your

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Speaker 1: control over the margin rate, but what do you think

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Speaker 1: of the sort of meme UH enthusiasm that's been going around.

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Speaker 1: Does that worry you in terms of potential effect on

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Speaker 1: the economy. So I, again, I won't comment on any

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Speaker 1: individual situation. UH. I don't at the moment see UH

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Speaker 1: systemic risk UH in these markets. But I do think

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Speaker 1: you're seeing, and I'll speak broadly, not about the situation asked,

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Speaker 1: but broadly, you're seeing the effects as you'd expect of

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Speaker 1: of again UH eighty billion of treasuries and forty billion

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Speaker 1: and Morgan back securities. I think it's necessary while we're

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Speaker 1: fighting the pandemic, but again, as after we get beyond it,

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Speaker 1: I think we need to wean off some of these

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Speaker 1: extraordinary measures. And I'm watching non bank financial markets very

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Speaker 1: carefully and what I would call excess risk taking. What

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Speaker 1: I mean by that positioning that when um, when vol

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Speaker 1: volatility is relatively low and credit spreads are tight and

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Speaker 1: liquidity is good, look benign. But in hindsight, when you

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Speaker 1: get a vault spike and credit spreads wide and volatility

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Speaker 1: tends to drive up drop, you find people realize they're

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Speaker 1: over risk and they've got a d risk and they've

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Speaker 1: got to do it quickly. We saw some of that

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Speaker 1: in March, by the way. Uh, And and I'm concerned

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Speaker 1: that we we should watch that carefully because there's uh,

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Speaker 1: there's always uh, that's always something we are we need

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Speaker 1: to be aware of it. And I am watching that carefully.

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Speaker 1: Before we let you go, I gotta ask you quickly.

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Speaker 1: You're our oil guy, Um, how's the pandemic left the

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Speaker 1: oil patch? And UM, I know that President Biden's energy

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Speaker 1: plans are somewhat controversial in your area. Have you modeled

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Speaker 1: the effect of moving away from fossil fuels and the

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Speaker 1: impact on your district? Yeah, we have and and most

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Speaker 1: participant in the industry have also modeled it. And so

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Speaker 1: you've got an industry that's far more consolidated UH and

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Speaker 1: you've seen a number of failures, bankruptcies, consolidations, UH, de leveragings.

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Speaker 1: And I think that you've also seen an industry that

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Speaker 1: is going to spend a lot more money on sequestration,

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Speaker 1: carbon capture and reducing their their greenhouse gas emissions footprint.

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Speaker 1: And also an industry that is committed now when they

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Speaker 1: have excess cash flow, to returning more of it to

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Speaker 1: shareholders and less of it to drilling. So because of that,

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Speaker 1: we think that UH supply UM and production in the

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Speaker 1: United States will be flat with this coming year. UH

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Speaker 1: and even though prices are are moving up, UH, people

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Speaker 1: may be surprised that supply does not move up like

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Speaker 1: the way they would have expected to in the past.

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Speaker 1: So the challenge in the United States is to keep

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Speaker 1: a healthy oil and gas business understanding that a smaller

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Speaker 1: and smaller percentage of energy consumption is going to go

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Speaker 1: to fossil fuels and much more aggressive energy consumption to

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Speaker 1: win solar other alternatives. And the challenge is going to

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Speaker 1: be to make that transition Robert Catlan, Dallas Fed President,

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Speaker 1: oil patch leader, thank you very much for joining us

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Speaker 1: this morning here on Bloomberg. Troy sky Bridge Morning, Troy's

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Speaker 1: about the spread, still is about the come on. It's

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Speaker 1: it's really about just an overwhelming amount of monetary stimulus

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Speaker 1: in the system, right and to your point, negative yields,

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Speaker 1: real yields and sovereigns that keep getting more negative as

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Speaker 1: inflation comes back and rates can't haven't caught up yet,

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Speaker 1: and there's just the dearth of income. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: only markets in the world that have still meaningful cash

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Speaker 1: flow or in structure credit because they got hammered so

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Speaker 1: back in March and they haven't come back fully, and

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Speaker 1: the fundamentals still look fairly attractive. Um, but from our perspective,

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Speaker 1: and not to back up Lisa and Tod by the way,

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Speaker 1: thanks for calling me a steamed um. But you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're gonna make a choice right now where you

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Speaker 1: want to be in the capital structure, at least in

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Speaker 1: the equity part of the capital structure, you still have

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Speaker 1: meaningful upside that this waterfall of waterfall, waterfall of cash

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Speaker 1: and fiscal STEAMUS can drive higher. Yes, you can get

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Speaker 1: spreads to tighten more. But high yield hasn't been high

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Speaker 1: yield for the last six months at least right it

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Speaker 1: wasn't even that highving yield coming into the prices. So

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Speaker 1: you know, from our perspective, you have massive money supply,

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Speaker 1: massive fiscal stimulus that's just driving all risk as that's

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Speaker 1: highed Troy. But dying to ask you this question then

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Speaker 1: the two model the last what three weeks, what have

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Speaker 1: you learned as an observer of hedge funds about game

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Speaker 1: stop and all that, Robin hood and all that and

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Speaker 1: the long short structure of the hedge fund world. Is

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Speaker 1: it forever changed? You know, forever is a strong term

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Speaker 1: tom um. You know much of the you know, obviously

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Speaker 1: game stop in m C and stocks like that. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they've behaved very similar to what happened in the late nineties,

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Speaker 1: but just on steroids, like everything else is on steroids

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Speaker 1: in this post pandemic period. And so what long SHORECTY

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Speaker 1: managers are doing across the board is they're moving up

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Speaker 1: in market cap in terms of the shorts that they

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Speaker 1: have on. They're getting even more diversified. Typically their short

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Speaker 1: positions are a quarter to a third dat of their

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Speaker 1: lungs just because of the asymmetry in your face. Also,

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Speaker 1: when in doubt, if you're concerned about systematic risk or beta,

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Speaker 1: there's nothing wrong with using STP futures or an et

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Speaker 1: F to take that risk out. But most importantly avoid

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Speaker 1: crowded shorts. That's kind of shorting one on one U.

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Speaker 1: I understand the you know, profit motive, but you should

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Speaker 1: never be in shorts with more than short interests outstanding.

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Speaker 1: So that's some of the changes that are taking place

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Speaker 1: right now. But try to build on what Tom was

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Speaker 1: talking about. There's sort of a larger question here. Can

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Speaker 1: hedge funds get really outsized value? Can they really find

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Speaker 1: alpha in a world dominated still so much by central

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Speaker 1: bank liquidity, a world that has proven inauspicious I should

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Speaker 1: say for hedge fund performance over the past decade, well,

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Speaker 1: inauspicious is a strong term. I mean, the hedge fund

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Speaker 1: industry has a holded very well last year, particularly particularly

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Speaker 1: protecting capital in March. It's always been challenging to make

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Speaker 1: money on the short side um most investors expect to

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Speaker 1: lose money through shorts over time, but one of the

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Speaker 1: key to have in short positions is to stay in

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Speaker 1: the game right to mitigate downside in months like March

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Speaker 1: or Q four of two thousand eighteen, or during the

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Speaker 1: Eurozone crisis, so you can protect the downside and then

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Speaker 1: go on off ends. Um that being said, and we

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Speaker 1: talked about this last time I was on, the industry

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Speaker 1: is certainly more net long than they've been in quite

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Speaker 1: some time, because again of that cocktail of you know,

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Speaker 1: fairly good virus news, powerful money supply never ending, the

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Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus that many would argue is too large the

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Speaker 1: stage of the game. Um So yeah, alpha on the

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Speaker 1: short side has always been hard, but fortunately there's been

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Speaker 1: both the past year and so far this year there's

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Speaker 1: been more alpha on the longside and obviously negative alph

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Speaker 1: on the short side. Final question for LSA drum roll,

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Speaker 1: if we got this is this is four LASA. This

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Speaker 1: is dedicated that do we have an asset shortage? Do

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Speaker 1: we need to wish you more Detroit. You know that's

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Speaker 1: a great question, John, because you know, when people look

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Speaker 1: at deficits, what they always look at is the liability

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Speaker 1: side of the balance sheet, and they don't look at

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Speaker 1: the assets side of the balance sheet. So you know,

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Speaker 1: as the FED reflates right, and the FED also um

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Speaker 1: prints more money um in the government issues more debt.

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Speaker 1: What's happened particularly past year is the value of assets

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Speaker 1: has gone up far more than the value of debt.

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Speaker 1: So you could argue that one way to cure that

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Speaker 1: is to print more debt. However, you know the best

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Speaker 1: argument is to have targeted fiscal stimulus that goes after

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Speaker 1: those that are in the most pain and doesn't continue

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Speaker 1: to create mini bubble lefter mini bubble after mini bubble

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Speaker 1: that will ultimately lead to, you know, quite a hangover

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Speaker 1: when the feed is forced to tie you. Now, we

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Speaker 1: don't expect that to anytime soon. It's toltly not this year,

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Speaker 1: but at some point, you know, the think of a hangover,

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Speaker 1: there's a hangover. After late nineties we had a housing bubble,

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Speaker 1: you know, you know, oh five till six um, there

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Speaker 1: was a mini oil bubble. In a way, these things

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Speaker 1: always end in tears, and so for the time being,

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Speaker 1: you want to monetize that. But you have to have

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Speaker 1: an eye on money, supply growth and fed policy. Troy

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Speaker 1: right to catch up, Seth. I want to see you guys.

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Speaker 1: Look always applies. Thank you. Set The Bloomberg Intelligence Michael

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Speaker 1: mcclog has done the best work on Bitcoin. He's looked

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Speaker 1: at the dynamics of it, he's looked at the modern

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Speaker 1: market features of it. He's clearly been way out front

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Speaker 1: and the vector moving higher from the lower left to

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Speaker 1: the upper right. As a skeptic Dennis Gartman would say.

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Speaker 1: Michael mcgloane joins us this morning with Bloomberg Intelligence. Michael,

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Speaker 1: I want to go back to first principles. In a

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg article today on coal and western China. There are

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Speaker 1: things called miners from Butch Cassidy. Who are those guys there?

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Speaker 1: It's a global decenturized network following any place they can

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Speaker 1: find cheap energy. From a strategy standpoint, the bottom line

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Speaker 1: is there's nine coins that can be mined today. That's

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Speaker 1: the max come. They'll drop to four fifty. So I

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Speaker 1: analyze it as the miners don't matter and manners to them.

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Speaker 1: But from a strategist predicting price, this is a set

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Speaker 1: supply schedule. It's declining in terms of image, so only

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Speaker 1: thing that matters is demand. The key thing is it's

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Speaker 1: only day. Come to page one of every economics textbook,

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Speaker 1: including the ones Janet Yelling studied, is about scarcity. It

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Speaker 1: is a manufacturer the critics would say contrived scarcity. That

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Speaker 1: always means nefarious elements come in to force the scarcity away.

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Speaker 1: Who are those nefarious elements that could take the scarcity

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Speaker 1: built into the price increase. Well, there's eight thousand want

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Speaker 1: to be cryptocurrency bitcoins out there. There's eight thousand all coins.

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Speaker 1: So they've tried. There's been many forks, everyone has worked,

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Speaker 1: but they have gotten nowhere near the robustness and adoption

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Speaker 1: that bitcoin has. So it's been through many deaths and

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Speaker 1: yet it's keeps surviving. So that's the key thing about it.

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Speaker 1: It's been killed many times, it keeps coming back. It's

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Speaker 1: gained that global robust nous. It's the the go to

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Speaker 1: reserve now digital asset. I will say, Tom, I just

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Speaker 1: have this image of Butch Cassidy behind a computer, plugging

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Speaker 1: in algorithms and used remember and it's it's it's really

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Speaker 1: quite an image, I will say, Mike. There is also

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Speaker 1: a question about just how much institutional adoption there is.

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Speaker 1: This is raised of course by Tesla yesterday coming out

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Speaker 1: and saying that they will soon accept a bitcoin as

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Speaker 1: a form of payment. Can you give us a sense

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Speaker 1: of truly how widespread this idea is in major corporations.

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Speaker 1: Whether you actually expect to hear some announcements in the

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Speaker 1: near future from other major companies about doing the same. Well,

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Speaker 1: initially it was a wave, now a tsunami, and that's

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Speaker 1: just getting started. Remember we're talking about a US corporations

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Speaker 1: based in the reserve currency of the Dollar's think of

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Speaker 1: the rest of the world that doesn't have that reserve currency,

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Speaker 1: they have maybe much greater incentive to alligate some of

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Speaker 1: their treasuries to bitcoined. So to me, this is just

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Speaker 1: part of what's happening. It's being adopted on a global scale,

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Speaker 1: and it's part of the reason I think, remember when

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Speaker 1: you at the thirty thousand that health support, I think

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Speaker 1: this reason forty is going to hold support. Now it's

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Speaker 1: just going to continue. Something has to go wrong, which

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Speaker 1: I knocked myself around every day for I don't know

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Speaker 1: what it is right now, but it's on that it's

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Speaker 1: in that unique phase where sometimes it technicals don't matter

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Speaker 1: as much as what's the next support should it hold

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Speaker 1: and just focus on your next resistance, which we all

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Speaker 1: kind of know is around fifty number. The more institutional

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Speaker 1: buying we get, do you think it makes it more

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Speaker 1: complex more difficult for the government to step in and

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Speaker 1: do something. Oh yes, they're going to continue regulate. Remember

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Speaker 1: we just had a theory and futures launched yesterday. We

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Speaker 1: have bitcoin futures. So bigcoin's under the purview of a government.

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Speaker 1: When you felt your tax, that's not government, that's the

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Speaker 1: establishment of a market. John's talking about government regulation of

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Speaker 1: a non financial, non coin. When does that happen? What

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Speaker 1: might happen to something like it has happened to gold.

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Speaker 1: But the key thing about bitcoin is no one's else,

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Speaker 1: no one's project, no one's liability. Like ripple x RP

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Speaker 1: was someone's project and liability, and the government's cracked on

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Speaker 1: in them. Here's the key thing about that. The government,

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Speaker 1: the New York d a crackdown and tether. Tether's the

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Speaker 1: number one stable coin that was an April two nineteen.

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Speaker 1: Market cap then was about three billions, So they've been

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Speaker 1: under that purview since two thousand nineteen. Now the market

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Speaker 1: caps around twenty nine billion. So do you think they've

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Speaker 1: done anything a legal sense? It's pure organic, organic demand.

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Speaker 1: What I see is the world wants a digital digital

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Speaker 1: currencies and digital dollar, and it's getting it. And the

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Speaker 1: government's getting regulations getting in there. My final question, how

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Speaker 1: close do you think we are to a very well

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Speaker 1: known American company that is not run by Ela Musk

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Speaker 1: doing exactly what Ela must announced yesterday. It's inevitable. I

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Speaker 1: don't see what's gonna stop it. Wow, Mike McLean. Great

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Speaker 1: to catch up, sir, Thank you. John Gets from Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Speaker 1: This is an important interview. Julie Norman is at the

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Speaker 1: University of College in London. She is a political science professor,

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Speaker 1: but is truly one of the world's experts on political

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Speaker 1: activism and social movement. A different take on what we

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Speaker 1: will witness in Washington today, Julie Norman, if you look

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Speaker 1: at the Republicans, the Grand Old Party, the path from

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Speaker 1: Lincoln to where they are right now, there seemed to

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Speaker 1: be partitions, and one of them is militia and some

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Speaker 1: of the violence we saw January six as well, tell

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Speaker 1: us about the social movement that defines a more assertive,

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Speaker 1: a more aggressive Republican Party. Well time, I think there

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Speaker 1: are different movements going on right now in the Republican

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Speaker 1: Party and that's pretty clear and across the left as well.

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Speaker 1: I mean, part of what we're seeing in the Republican

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Speaker 1: Party is people who have very legitimate grievances who saw

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Speaker 1: Trump at somewhat of a channel for that and are

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Speaker 1: just kind of getting into more of this populous way

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Speaker 1: of thinking. But I think that's a longside, much more

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Speaker 1: long standing groups like some of the far right extremist

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Speaker 1: groups that we saw at the Capitol, those groups have

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Speaker 1: been around for a long time. They will continue to

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Speaker 1: be around in the future. Um. They really took advantage

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Speaker 1: of that historical moment and have been pretty savvy about

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Speaker 1: recruiting some other individuals into their into their ranks these days.

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Speaker 1: What can be the institutional response to the reality of guns, weapons, rifles,

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Speaker 1: whatever in a legislative branch, whether republic Republican, or Democrat,

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Speaker 1: What is the expected or best outcome for the institution? Well, Tom,

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Speaker 1: I think our institutions and this you know this is

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Speaker 1: true for Democrats and Republicans, that most individuals, most lawmakers,

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Speaker 1: and even most American citizens have pretty strong respect to

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Speaker 1: our institutions. They want to see them function well. They

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Speaker 1: don't want to see them the coming new places of

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Speaker 1: brawls and violences, even maybe as they were in our

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Speaker 1: in the past in our history, and so I think

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Speaker 1: it's just makes sense that certain safeguards are put in

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Speaker 1: place to make sure that happens. When that said, I

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Speaker 1: don't think anyone in Washington wants to see the more

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Speaker 1: militarized state that it's in right now continue forever. Those

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Speaker 1: precautions were put in place, obviously for a reason following

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Speaker 1: January six, but they will be you know, it will

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Speaker 1: go back to some kind of normal in time. But

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Speaker 1: try with more security measures than we had in the past,

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Speaker 1: did you. In addition to the highly apartisan discussions around

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Speaker 1: impeachment around the stimulus package, there has been an international

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Speaker 1: effort to regain ties with some of the allies of

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Speaker 1: the United States. One interesting note is that President Biden

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Speaker 1: has not yet had a conversation with j and Ping,

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Speaker 1: even though he has had a conversation with Vladimir Putin

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Speaker 1: of Russia. What do you make of that, Well, I

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Speaker 1: think it's a couple of different things, Lisa. For first

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Speaker 1: and foremost that with Biden, we can expect him to

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Speaker 1: really continue some of the policies of Trump administration in

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Speaker 1: terms of being taught on China. Biden is looking to

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Speaker 1: really change that relationship that much, even though his approach

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Speaker 1: might be a little bit different. I think with that

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Speaker 1: phone call, Biden is also trying to show that the U.

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Speaker 1: S School stand up to Russia as well, in a

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Speaker 1: way that was different from the Trump administration. But there

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Speaker 1: were just certain UH situations of urgency there that required

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Speaker 1: that call and that engagement. The you start treating for

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Speaker 1: one that would have expired the past week if they

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Speaker 1: hadn't had that call and that kind of engagement, as

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Speaker 1: well as trying to put some pressure on Russia around

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Speaker 1: Novoldi and the demonstrations around his detention. Judy always wantedful

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Speaker 1: to catch up with your Thanks for him with us,

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Speaker 1: Jenny Norman, that University College of London professor, a really

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Speaker 1: important day down in Washington, d C. Thanks for listening

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Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews

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Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer.

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Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You

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Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.