1 00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:07,480 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Toomberg even to Washington, d C. 2 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:12,959 Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve hundars to San Francisco, Bloomberg 3 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:18,040 Speaker 1: to the Country General one ninety and around the globe 4 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Radio plus Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. 5 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 1: Good morning at seven thirty on Wall Street and Michael 6 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: McKee along with Tom Keen. Interesting stories out this morning 7 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:34,840 Speaker 1: as we get back to the markets on the really 8 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,400 Speaker 1: the second day of trading for the quarter, but kind 9 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 1: of feels like the first instance of Monday. Bats Global 10 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:42,279 Speaker 1: markets pricing and t I p O eleven point two 11 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 1: million shares seventeen dollars to nineteen dollars a share. Alaska 12 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 1: Air Group buying Virgin America fifty seven dollars a share 13 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 1: makes a deal valued at about four billion sharp higher. 14 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: After Fox con formally signed a rescue deal over the weekend, 15 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:58,800 Speaker 1: the stock up four percent to close it a hundred 16 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: and thirty yen in Tokyo and FedEx out there marketing 17 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:03,639 Speaker 1: nine dollar bonds for the first time because interest rates 18 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 1: are solo company offering eurodenominated notes between three and ten years, 19 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 1: including at least five hundred million of floating rate notes 20 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 1: maturing in two thousand nineteen, according to little person familiar 21 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: with the matter. Let's check up with Michael barn Now 22 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 1: and get the latest World of national headlines. Mike, thank 23 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:22,400 Speaker 1: you very much. Amtrack says it's operating trains today as scheduled, 24 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 1: although there may be some delays on its Seller Express, 25 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 1: Northeast Regional, and other services between Philadelphia and Wilmington, Delaware. Yesterday, 26 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 1: a train heading from New York to Savannah, Georgia, hit 27 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 1: heavy equipment on tracks outside Philadelphia, and the lead engine 28 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: derailed to Amtrack employees were killed and more than thirty 29 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 1: passengers were injured. Ryan Freego with the National Transportation Safety 30 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 1: Board says they have recovered the event data recorder. Most 31 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 1: of our team has arrived on scene and we will 32 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: be looking at mechanical operations, signal track, human performance and 33 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 1: survival factors. A monitoring up says an air strike on 34 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 1: an L Kind Of affiliated headquarters in northern Syria has 35 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 1: killed at least twenty two militants, including a senior Al 36 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 1: Kind Of linked spokesman. The Britain based Syrian Observatory for 37 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: Human Rights says jet's thoughts belonging to the Syrian or 38 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 1: Russian air forces targeted the headquarters of an extremist group 39 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: that fights alongside the news for Front. The first group 40 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:25,799 Speaker 1: of refugees were deported from Greece to Turkey as part 41 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 1: of the controversy of European Union planned curb migration to Europe. 42 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 1: Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by our journalists. 43 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 1: I'm Michael Barn Mike, Thank you, Michael. Time now for 44 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: the um NBC and Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John steshow alright, Mike. 45 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: Opening night for the Mets against the team that beat 46 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 1: him in the World Series last fall and in Kansas City, 47 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 1: Edinsonvalcas was Sharperlin six scoreless and ins of the Mets 48 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:54,919 Speaker 1: did get to the Royals bullpen, scoring three runs in 49 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 1: the eighth inning, had too on in the ninth, but 50 00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 1: Kse closer Wade Davis struck out David right then yo 51 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 1: Na Sespicis. The Royals hung on four to three. Matt 52 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 1: Harvey took the loss. Can't blame him for Kansas City's 53 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 1: first run. That was on Cespedis, who had his fielding 54 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: woes in the World Series and who in the first 55 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:13,920 Speaker 1: dinning last night dropped a routine tie ball or what 56 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 1: could be at Chile Stadium today Opening day for the Yankees, Yanks, 57 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 1: and Astros, just as it was in last year's wild 58 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 1: Card playoffs. SAT pictures as that game, Massa, Heiro Tanaka 59 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 1: and Houston cy Young winner Dallas tichel Nick set out 60 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 1: Karmelo Anthony and kristophs Porzingis. They battled Indiana but fell 61 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 1: at the Garden eighties seven. The Nets set out Proklopez 62 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:35,119 Speaker 1: and Fatty as Young. They both won't play the rest 63 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: of the season. Nets beaten by New Orleans one oh 64 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 1: six eighty seven. Other route for the Yukon women eighty 65 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: to fifty one over Oregon State Huskies will seek an 66 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 1: eleventh and C double a championship fourth in a row 67 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 1: tomorrow night against Syracu used to beat Washington eighty to 68 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: fifty nine. Men's final tonight North Carolina and Villanova with 69 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg NBC Sports upthing. I'm John Stepson, Thank you 70 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 1: John Well. We are watching futures higher and stocks in 71 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 1: Europe are higher on the day. Currencies the euro one 72 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 1: thirteen sixty seven is down just a touch, but that's 73 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 1: still a strong number. The en strengthens one eleven sixty seven. 74 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:21,039 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance worldwide. Welcome back to Bloomberg Surveillance. 75 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 1: I Michael McKey along with Tom Keene and as I mentioned, 76 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 1: Futures trading higher where the SMP evening features up six points. 77 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 1: Now we're adding to games three tenths of a percent down, 78 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 1: Futures thirty seven higher two tenths of eight percent. The 79 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,719 Speaker 1: stock six hundred in Europe is up four points right now, 80 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 1: one point one percent to decks that is up a 81 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 1: hundred and eleven points one point one percent as well, 82 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 1: So a strong start to the second quarter. This this 83 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 1: second trading day of the second quarter. Time now for 84 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg n j I T STEM Report, brought to 85 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 1: you by New Jersey Institute of Technology, investing more than 86 00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 1: a hundred and ten million dollars a year and applied 87 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 1: research to solve problems and improve life. Learn more stories 88 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: of innovation dot m j I T dot E DU. 89 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: Here's probably Michael, good morning. Here's what's making news in science, technology, 90 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:14,039 Speaker 1: engineering and math. Another hard lesson the technology is not 91 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 1: always a businesses friend. A massive leak of data from 92 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,719 Speaker 1: a Panama law firm has exposed eleven point five million 93 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 1: records outlining the creation of more than two hundred thousand 94 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 1: offshore shell companies dating back twenty years, and in the process, 95 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: it's embarrassed politicians, celebrities and criminals around the world consider 96 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:35,719 Speaker 1: this What sounds like a huge amount of documentation these 97 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 1: days can walk out the door of a company on 98 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 1: a hard drive smaller than a pack of cigarettes. Apple's 99 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 1: latest attempt to crack the smartphone market in India by 100 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 1: selling used phones is meeting a wall of resistance. The 101 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 1: iPhone maker is seeking permission to become the first company 102 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:53,279 Speaker 1: allowed to import and sell used phones in the country, 103 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:55,839 Speaker 1: its second attempt in as many years. This time the 104 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 1: stakes are higher and a growing number of industry executives 105 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 1: are fighting the move. Morning Government officials in private that 106 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 1: it will open the floodgates to electronic waste and make 107 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,760 Speaker 1: a force of Prime Minister Noranda motives Made in India 108 00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:12,279 Speaker 1: program to encourage local manufacturing, and Google confirms it has 109 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:16,599 Speaker 1: removed the Taliban developed online app for Android smartphones and 110 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 1: increasing the militant group's visibility worldwide. The launch of the 111 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: app was reported on Friday by a group that monitors 112 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 1: the hottest social media. The app included contents such as 113 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 1: official statements and videos from the Taliban, which has waged 114 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:32,359 Speaker 1: a jihad in Afghanistan for more than fourteen years. And 115 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:35,279 Speaker 1: that's this morning's Bloomberg n j I T STEM report, 116 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 1: Michael Baba, thank you very much. Well. Last week the 117 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:43,599 Speaker 1: sp finished up by one point eight percent. People getting 118 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 1: a little bit more confident about the direction of the 119 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:50,359 Speaker 1: stock market. Katie Stockton is not one of them. She's 120 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: the chief technical analyst at bt I G and she 121 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 1: has a no doubt from over the weekend that raises 122 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 1: a question of whether or not analysts and investors are 123 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 1: overly bull about the way things are going. I would 124 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: call you our black clouds of the day, but the 125 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,720 Speaker 1: weather is going to take precedence there, Katie, So we'll 126 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 1: just so you're the second down. Um, why what what 127 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 1: is concerning you? You know, for me, it's gone a 128 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 1: little bit too far, too fast. So obviously the SMP 129 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: five is now up about fourteen and a half percent 130 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 1: from subway is low and to me, the momentum is 131 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 1: still there, and yet it's really kind of fallen off 132 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 1: in the past week or so. And when when you 133 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 1: look at overseas markets, you're seen a more significant loss 134 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: of momentum there that I think we'll ultimately carry over 135 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 1: to our market as well. It just feels like it's 136 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: being boosted by sort of false hopes to me, and 137 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 1: you can see that in some of the gauges of 138 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 1: sentiment that we track. There are two types of sentiment engages, 139 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 1: the investor polls where they actually take a pull of 140 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 1: investors and say, well, you know, how do you feel 141 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 1: about the market right now? And then there are the 142 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 1: transactional gauges, and that would be not just how you feel, 143 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 1: but how are you positioning via things like you know, 144 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: put some calls and and looking at the VIX and 145 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 1: things like that, and not to me, um is a 146 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: more important gauge, those transactional gauges, and they're pretty stretched 147 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 1: right now to the highest point where, uh, since the 148 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 1: SMP five hundred peaked back in early November, what what 149 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 1: are people buying that? Yeah, you know, the rotation more 150 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 1: recently has been somewhat offensive, but for the quarter, for 151 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 1: the first quarter, it was a much much more defensive overall, 152 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 1: and a lot of that, of course, was in January 153 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 1: when you saw defensive sectors like consumer staples, utilities, and 154 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 1: telecom exhibit. You know, leadership. As the market went lower. 155 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: More recently, we've seen it back up in certain areas. 156 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 1: You know, technology has done pretty well. Um. You know, 157 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: discretionaries held up. Um. Of course, the more defensive sectors 158 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 1: have pulled back with the relief rally, but I think 159 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 1: this may be temporary. Um. So the sector position that 160 00:08:56,920 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: I'm watching that someone promising is actually in the previously 161 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 1: on loved sectors of the market. Looking at areas like 162 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 1: materials and energy and industrials of course have really just 163 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 1: been on a tear on a relative basis. Well, let's 164 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 1: let's clarify that. Are you talking about, um, the market 165 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 1: being stretched on an overall basis or just some sectors 166 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:18,959 Speaker 1: and maybe we see some rotation. You know, So when 167 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 1: I talk about sectors, I'm usually talking from a relative 168 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 1: perspective because we all sort of live in this relative world. 169 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:28,079 Speaker 1: We always need to outperform, right, So when I talk 170 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 1: about them, you know, industrial is being on a tear 171 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 1: right now. It's absolute and relative terms. But you know, 172 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 1: as the market pulls back, which is what I expect, 173 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 1: you would just look for relative out performance, which doesn't 174 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:43,680 Speaker 1: necessarily mean it goes higher from here. What about the 175 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 1: disconnect or do you see a disconnect between what the 176 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 1: companies are saying and what the sentiment indexes are saying? 177 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: You know, UM, I don't track the company data as 178 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: much as a technical strategist, UM, but what I am 179 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: looking at, you know, is pretty similar in some ways. 180 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 1: You know, we're all looking at the very inputs into 181 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 1: UM macro factors and and earnings. And you know, crude 182 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: oil of course being one where you had a positive 183 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 1: correlation between baquity market and crude oil up until the 184 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:14,839 Speaker 1: last week or two. And it's interesting to me the 185 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: divergence with that sort of correlation that existed where you're 186 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: seeing the European markets for one, actually track crude oil 187 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: more closely now and we've seen sort of a break 188 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: up in that relationship between the S and P five 189 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:29,959 Speaker 1: hundred and crude oil prices. So it'll be interesting to 190 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 1: see how that's reconciled. And as you know, I would 191 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 1: expect it to be lower UM SMP fire. Katie Stockton 192 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 1: is with this chief technically on us for BT I 193 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: G will continue our conversation in just a few moments. 194 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 1: Were watching the markets at least the futures markets at 195 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:51,719 Speaker 1: the moment, ignore Katie's pessimism. Um they're still on the 196 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:55,199 Speaker 1: green side of fear and greed. SMP up six points 197 00:10:55,480 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 1: three tenths of a percent. This is Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg 198 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 1: Surveillance brought to buy Untucked. Think your shirt is too 199 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 1: long to wear untucked? It probably is. Untucket has solved this, 200 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 1: making shirts designed to be warned untucked because it Untucket 201 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: dot Com and use code w vd R for fi 202 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: off to approve your wardrobe. Global Business News twenty four 203 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 1: hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, the Radio Plus 204 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 1: mobile app, and on your radio. This is a Bloomberg 205 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,840 Speaker 1: Business Flash and I'm kmerin Moscow. This updates brought to 206 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 1: you by Sector Spider E t f So why buy 207 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:33,840 Speaker 1: a single stock when you can invest in the entire sector? 208 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 1: Visits Sector spd r S dot com or call S 209 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 1: six Sector E t f U stock index futures are 210 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 1: edging higher as investors look for fresh queues after the 211 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: S and P five index closed at its highest level 212 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 1: of the year. Right now, SMP even the futures are 213 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 1: up four and a half points now. Eveny futures up 214 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,319 Speaker 1: twenty six and NAS documitty futures are up nine and 215 00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:57,200 Speaker 1: we check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. 216 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 1: On Bloomberg, the decks in Germany's up one point one 217 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:02,079 Speaker 1: per cent, the ten year treasury up one thirty second, 218 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 1: the yield one point seven six percent yield on the 219 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 1: two year point seven three percent. NIMEX Scrude oil up 220 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: poor tens per cent or thirteen cents to thirty six 221 00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:12,960 Speaker 1: ninety two A barrel. Comics gold is down three tenths 222 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 1: per cent or three dollars fifty cents to twelve twenty 223 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:18,559 Speaker 1: announced the euro and dollar thirteen seventy three, the N 224 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:22,440 Speaker 1: one eleven point six one. Alaska Air Group agreeing to 225 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 1: buy Richard Branson backed Virgin America for two point six 226 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:29,200 Speaker 1: billion dollars in Virgin America's up thirty nine percent this morning. 227 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:32,679 Speaker 1: Pat's Global Markets initial public offering made value the second 228 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:35,720 Speaker 1: largest US stock exchange operator, at as much as two 229 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:39,200 Speaker 1: point one billion dollars, more than double the expected valuation 230 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,520 Speaker 1: in its first attempt four years ago. And Tesla Motor 231 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 1: is up almost four percent after chief executive Elon Musk 232 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:48,080 Speaker 1: said pre orders for its Model three electric car reach 233 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:51,199 Speaker 1: two hundred seventy six thousand by Saturday night. That's a 234 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike Cara Mosco, thank you 235 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 1: very much. We're talking with Katie Stockton, the chief technical 236 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: and list for bt I G, who is somewhat pessimistic 237 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 1: about the outlook for equities. And let me clarify over 238 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 1: what period I mean when we talk about overly bullish 239 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:12,719 Speaker 1: signals being sent in a pullback in site, how long 240 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: would that last? We are we weigh over over brought here, 241 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 1: so we have signals both on the short term time 242 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: frame and also the intermediate term timeframe at this stage 243 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:25,319 Speaker 1: in terms of how widespread over brought conditions have become 244 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 1: during this backup in in the S and P five hundred, 245 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 1: we're actually at the point where I believe it's of 246 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: the constituents of the S and P five are above 247 00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 1: their fifty day moving averages. So it's uh, it's not 248 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 1: really a sustainable level. So your first inclination is to 249 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 1: have a bullish takeaway from that, and a lot of 250 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:46,840 Speaker 1: people do right now, it seems, but in reality that 251 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 1: level is really quite over bought or over extended and 252 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 1: not likely sustainable. Beyond you know days, So so it's 253 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 1: really a short term call from measures like that. And 254 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 1: then when you look on an intermediate terms, certainly momentum 255 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:04,320 Speaker 1: has improved, um, you know that sort of that maybe 256 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 1: we could make a higher low relative to January and February. 257 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:10,319 Speaker 1: That would be you know, to me best case scenario. 258 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 1: But certainly the overbought conditions are quite widespread. They affected 259 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 1: more than fifty of the S and P five hundred 260 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 1: at this stage, Katie, I did a lot of workless 261 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: week on the technical construction of oil and the answer 262 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: is that kept coming back to the word indeterminate. It's 263 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 1: almost a no man's land arrange abound whither this way, 264 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 1: whither that way? Which whither way is the wither? Yeah, 265 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 1: So so I think it's you know, the price action, 266 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: which I called backing and filling, is part of a 267 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 1: basing phase. And so the reason I say that is 268 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 1: because momentum sort of improved over time as crude oil 269 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 1: it is finally stuck in the mud here. So to me, 270 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: this backing and filling is part of a bottoming process 271 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 1: with an emphasis on process where it doesn't necessarily you know, 272 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 1: get that v bottom and go straight up but rather 273 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 1: we get a series of rallies and retests, and indeed, 274 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 1: right now we're in this retest mode. I'm looking for 275 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 1: some support to come into play for w t I 276 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 1: around thirty four dollars per barrel. Well, we should mention 277 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 1: that oil has turned around since the show began. Both 278 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: West Texas and Brent are higher right now by two 279 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 1: tents of a per cent. Yeah, well, yeah, there they 280 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 1: were weak and they've come back a little bit. But 281 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 1: it's interesting that Normans, then Cantie tell me about the 282 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 1: most loved thing I've seen since the nineteen sixties, which 283 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 1: is big cap consumer stocks. They paid dividends, they've got 284 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: presumed dividend growth. How do you technically justify acquiring shares? 285 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 1: It's something with a twenty plus pe multiple. That's that's 286 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 1: the way you can always justify it is momentum. So 287 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: there are times at which really the fundamentals and and 288 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 1: you know the chart of a stock sort of diverge 289 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 1: where you know the way that that stock is acting 290 00:15:57,080 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 1: isn't really aligned with valuations. And the are the times 291 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 1: where these indicators that we use can come in really handy. 292 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 1: So looking at momentum tools, a lot of them are 293 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 1: derived from moving averages of price. So when you look 294 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 1: at the consumer staples et F for example, it still 295 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 1: has very strong momentum and s indeed looks over extended 296 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 1: by some measures. But you know, as long as you 297 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 1: stay on the right side of these moving averages um, 298 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 1: you generally do better. What is momentum, so, I mean 299 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 1: it's price momentum, right, So it's really just based on 300 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 1: the price of the stock, and it's you know, it's 301 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 1: sort of like the train in motion is more likely 302 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 1: to stay in motion type of things. So it's it's 303 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 1: driven by you know, invests or behavior sort of, you 304 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 1: know that that sentiment that we're trying to gauge, you know, 305 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 1: with all the indicators that we use. So it's market 306 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:49,000 Speaker 1: behavior that sort of manifests itself in this momentum. And again, 307 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 1: you know, sometimes averages with what we think is stocks 308 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 1: should be doing. I'm looking at UH an indicator that 309 00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 1: you mentioned you look at I don't know how much 310 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 1: faith you put in at the CNN Money Fear and 311 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:04,440 Speaker 1: Greed Index, and I'm just looking at it right now 312 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 1: against the SP five and it looks basically like a 313 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 1: momentum indicator. It's very contemporaneous, right, right, So you know 314 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:13,880 Speaker 1: a lot of the indicators that we use are more 315 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,359 Speaker 1: coincident in nature. Rarely, ever can we find indicators that 316 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,359 Speaker 1: actually have a lead time to that UM. Usually we 317 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 1: use relative strength analysis to get any kind of lead UM. 318 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 1: But you know, with the CNN Fear and Greed Index 319 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:29,959 Speaker 1: is one transactional gauge of sentiment that actually incorporates I 320 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 1: believe seven various transactional gauges, including that VIX, including junk 321 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 1: bond demand, various measures that I think are important. UM. Indeed, 322 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:41,640 Speaker 1: it's it's somewhat correlated to you know, peaks and troughs 323 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: in the SMP five hundreds. So the backup in that 324 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 1: CNN Fear and Greed Index and now the elevated level 325 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 1: that we last saw in early November, that's somewhat concerning. 326 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 1: It tells us that the market maybe a bit frosty. 327 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 1: And then when you just think about the numbers them, 328 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 1: certainly you could you know, justify that the you you 329 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:02,640 Speaker 1: said when we started, we're looking at, you know, what's 330 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 1: happening in the options markets, and then with the sentiment 331 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,359 Speaker 1: indicators or most of the sentiment indicators telling you the 332 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: same thing, as this CNN. Yeah, I would say so, 333 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 1: and some aren't quite as extreme. Um But you know, 334 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:18,400 Speaker 1: really the investor polls are showing abolishness as having increased, 335 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:21,439 Speaker 1: albeit less so. Um. So, you know, it's just a 336 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 1: matter of trying to understand which gage works best for you. 337 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 1: When you look at the vix um, it looks very oversold. 338 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:31,679 Speaker 1: In fact, it has some countertrend signals based on indicators 339 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:36,199 Speaker 1: derived from Tom Demark's sort of set up at his toolbox. 340 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 1: So I think that's kind of interesting where you actually 341 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:42,320 Speaker 1: have oversold conditions and the vix being enhanced then by 342 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:46,919 Speaker 1: the overbought conditions and equity market within this and with 343 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 1: a technical construction. One of the great things that people 344 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: like to do is get away from short termism. Look 345 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,600 Speaker 1: at weekly charts, look at monthly charts. Where are we 346 00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 1: in a bull market? Are we not in a bull 347 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 1: market spanning back five or six years? Right? I think 348 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 1: we can safely say that the bull market that began 349 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight two thousand and nine has been reversed. 350 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,400 Speaker 1: Um So, in a way, sort of a cyclical bear 351 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 1: is still you know, or still has a hold on 352 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 1: the broader market. In fact, I drew a nice little 353 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 1: downtrend channel on the SMP five hundred which broke some 354 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 1: very important support levels in January. So to me, you know, 355 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 1: all you have to do is look globally as well, 356 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 1: where you can see these down trends are much more pronounced. 357 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 1: So I think we need to work within that framework. 358 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,720 Speaker 1: And indeed it's always important to take a step back 359 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:35,159 Speaker 1: and look at the intermediate and long term charts. But 360 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 1: unfortunately these days were all forced into being somewhat short 361 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:42,159 Speaker 1: term if we indeed want to outperform the broader market, 362 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,679 Speaker 1: because if you miss these types of moves, you know, 363 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: like this fourteen and a half percent rally off the 364 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:49,840 Speaker 1: Subruary low, then really you're you're missing too much in 365 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 1: order to you know, ad perform for either yourself or 366 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:57,720 Speaker 1: your clients. What's happening outside our borders in in other markets, 367 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:02,160 Speaker 1: same conditions, right, so that the downtrends there are more 368 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:05,120 Speaker 1: pronounced as you could imagine. You know, we've seen under 369 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:08,120 Speaker 1: performance over the long term from you know, really any 370 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 1: developed global market for the most part. Certainly we've seen 371 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,159 Speaker 1: some out performance over the near term or the recent 372 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:17,399 Speaker 1: term by the likes of brazil Um, you know, and 373 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 1: some of the emerging markets have done quite well very recently, 374 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:24,200 Speaker 1: but again they look over extended, just like our market, 375 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,440 Speaker 1: you know, from a short to intermediate term perspective. And 376 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:29,439 Speaker 1: you know when you look at where there's resistance on 377 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 1: these charts, they're there, for the most part, still making 378 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 1: lower highs on their charts and right up into some 379 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 1: resistance in a lot of cases based on where it 380 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,879 Speaker 1: broke down in January. And even the same can be 381 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 1: said for the Russell two thousand. One of the worst 382 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: looking markets to me is Japan um so that you know, 383 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 1: it's suffered a loss of relative strength, it suffered a 384 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:53,199 Speaker 1: loss of momentum, and it just acts poorly, and I 385 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: think that's a message from the market. Tom's been all 386 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 1: over Japan the last couple of days here. Yeah, we've 387 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 1: uncovered like crazy with again weaker, you know, rather stronger 388 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:09,119 Speaker 1: the end stronger, breaking through the new abbionomics level. Do 389 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 1: you have a call on you? I mean, if you 390 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 1: look at point and figure into a horizontal count or 391 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:15,199 Speaker 1: something like that, do you have a target on end 392 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,400 Speaker 1: one ten one oh nine? Yeah, I mean it's obviously 393 00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 1: discovered a little support here in this one eleven area, right, 394 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,360 Speaker 1: or you could call it resistance depending on how you're 395 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:27,359 Speaker 1: looking at it. Um. What's interesting is we actually have 396 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 1: when a countertrend signal as of today, and it's really 397 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 1: the first one in months. So it would suggest that 398 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 1: this level is actually going to hold, at least in 399 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:38,719 Speaker 1: the very near term. And so no, no real target. 400 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:42,439 Speaker 1: It's not my practice to assign targets, but if it 401 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 1: does breach that one eleven, then I think you'll see 402 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,440 Speaker 1: some significant follow throom, Katie, Thank you so much, Katie 403 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:54,400 Speaker 1: Stockton with this this morning. Greatly appreciate that. Katie Stockton 404 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 1: on charts by good look at overall, um outlook. Yeah, 405 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:01,640 Speaker 1: the people are looking at think, well you were where 406 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:06,439 Speaker 1: you were gone using me in Tucker's vacation days. I know, 407 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 1: well very good. Did you have a good time, yes? Yes? 408 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:14,440 Speaker 1: Did we miss him? Yes? We did. Nothing going on. 409 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 1: It was the question there. It was like central Bank. 410 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:20,639 Speaker 1: It was like central Bank. Derby Michael McKee, something to 411 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,040 Speaker 1: talk about when Mr McKee will get some free time. 412 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:27,119 Speaker 1: Futures have five down, futures up, twenty six. McKee voting 413 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 1: for Villene Villanova. It's Bloomberg surveillance