WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 10th, 2026 0:00:02.360 --> 0:00:06.720 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordernt. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:36.920 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this sour 0:00:36.920 --> 0:00:40.520 with stocks extending losses following a very volatile session. Steve 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:43.600 Chevrod federated call and get the storm before the calm, 0:00:43.880 --> 0:00:46.920 writing to be clear, we would see any volatility as 0:00:46.920 --> 0:00:49.800 a buying opportunity. Steve joins us now from what Steve, 0:00:49.800 --> 0:00:52.000 Good morning, See what do you think is behind the 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:55.240 latest fragility, the latest wild swings the tank stocks? 0:00:55.560 --> 0:00:57.720 Yeah, let me just say I'm not coming from either 0:00:57.880 --> 0:00:59.160 rio or court side of. 0:00:59.120 --> 0:00:59.640 The next game. 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:03.440 Rush off to New Jersey Turnpipe, where our traffic has 0:01:03.440 --> 0:01:05.760 been insane coming into the city, which is I think 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:09.440 a sign of actually strong consumer demand. But look, I 0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:11.440 think there are a lot of non fundamental factors that 0:01:11.480 --> 0:01:13.679 are going to interfere with markets and cause volatility over 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:16.440 the summer. People need to make room in their portfolios 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:19.240 for all the equity capital that's being raised, including SpaceX, 0:01:20.560 --> 0:01:24.280 pension funds, and kind of investors that are targeting allocations. 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:27.559 Equities have run so hard over the last quarter, fixed 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:29.680 income has struggled so much that there's going to be 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:32.000 a rebalancing trade very likely that I think we'll interfere 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:32.560 with markets. 0:01:33.440 --> 0:01:33.840 Inflation. 0:01:34.040 --> 0:01:36.399 I think today's inflation report is going to mark the 0:01:36.440 --> 0:01:38.000 worst of the worst. This is going to be the 0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:39.679 biggest jump on a month of a month. I think 0:01:39.680 --> 0:01:41.080 we kind of stabilize from here. 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:42.000 Than this is the peak. 0:01:42.120 --> 0:01:44.080 I think, well, not necessarily the peak, you could get 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:46.360 a report that's hotter, but the jump. I think we're 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:48.000 going to go from you know, three eight to four 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:49.200 to two likely today. 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:50.760 I think that's the biggest jump. 0:01:50.800 --> 0:01:53.680 So after this report, I think things will get bad 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:56.080 at a less bad rate, which is usually what markets 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:59.080 look to to have an inflection point. You've got uncertainty 0:01:59.120 --> 0:02:00.960 around the midterms, it'll start to come in the con 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:02.840 and then you have a new fed share that's going 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:06.240 to get challenged, so I think you could see volatility 0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:09.720 over the course of the summer. Our anchoring point, though, 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:12.560 is that we still sit in what is at worst 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:16.280 the middle of the biggest infrastructure build out since the railroads, 0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:19.520 and margins that are growing at the fastest pace in 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:22.000 my lifetime, and it's not as short as it was 0:02:22.080 --> 0:02:24.359 you can see from the gray hairs. So we want 0:02:24.360 --> 0:02:26.600 to own that. And if we see volatility on some 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:28.560 of these non fundamental factors, we're likely to buy it. 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:30.280 Own it what price. And this is the key issue 0:02:30.280 --> 0:02:32.600 because everybody has their handout. Everybody wants to raise money, 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:34.400 and the sums of money are getting bigger and bigger 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:36.640 to pay for it higher and higher cost items because 0:02:36.680 --> 0:02:38.960 inflation is going up as quickly as people can raise 0:02:39.000 --> 0:02:39.600 money to pay it. 0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:41.200 I think prices are up. 0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:43.400 I don't think inflation is in place, and I think 0:02:43.440 --> 0:02:44.880 that that's a key element. I don't think what we 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:48.720 have is a self reinforcing upward cycle and prices. And 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:50.400 the reason I don't think we have that is we 0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:52.600 don't see it in wage gains, which are still pretty 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:55.079 modest at three and a half percent, and what you're 0:02:55.080 --> 0:02:57.720 seeing is pockets of weakness in parts of the consumer 0:02:57.760 --> 0:03:01.600 basket that's offsetting the strength that you see in energy commodities. 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:03.119 What we have is a straight of horror moves. 0:03:03.160 --> 0:03:06.160 It's closed, and if energy is not flowing, prices are 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:08.000 going to be higher. But what we don't have that 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:10.320 we had in kind of twenty two and twenty three 0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:14.720 was just more and more money getting pumped into the system, 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:17.720 whether it was through government stimulus or rates that are zero. 0:03:17.840 --> 0:03:18.960 And so I think what you're going to. 0:03:18.960 --> 0:03:21.600 See is on a year of a year basis the 0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:24.000 biggest jump this kind of four percent number, and then 0:03:24.040 --> 0:03:26.000 I think we'll see a string of four percent numbers. 0:03:26.000 --> 0:03:27.200 But then all of a sudden, when you get to 0:03:27.240 --> 0:03:29.560 the back half of the year, you've lapped the tariffs. 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:33.079 Even if energy prices stay exactly where they are once 0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:36.480 you get to next March, energy inflation zero at that point, right, So, 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:39.680 and I think what we're likely to see is energy 0:03:39.680 --> 0:03:42.240 prices that ease some, not necessarily go back to where 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:43.840 they were a pre conflict, but ease some. 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:46.040 So I think we have higher prices. 0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:48.240 I think it's hurting some people, but I don't think 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:50.760 that this is that self reinforcing inflation cycle. 0:03:50.760 --> 0:03:52.120 I would take issue with one thing, and this is 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:52.800 something that I was hearing. 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:55.320 Would like to listen, that's kind of where we do. 0:03:55.400 --> 0:03:57.880 By the way, you're off to a fantastic fatation next week. 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:00.720 So don't exactly crib me a river about ur. You know, 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:03.320 let's not go there. But I will say one thing 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:05.640 that as I was talking to different CEOs, they're talking 0:04:05.640 --> 0:04:07.480 about how much money they have and that their margins 0:04:07.520 --> 0:04:10.440 have been increasing, not decreasing. And you said that fiscal 0:04:10.760 --> 0:04:12.680 isn't necessarily coming in the same way that it did 0:04:12.800 --> 0:04:15.080 during the pandemic. Maybe so, but you're getting tax breaks 0:04:15.080 --> 0:04:16.960 that are giving them a lot of cash. At what 0:04:17.120 --> 0:04:20.880 point will companies have to raise wages in a commensurate 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:23.359 way because they have so much money they need to 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:26.560 build their business. They are all investing in capex. I mean, 0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:28.239 why isn't that a likely outcome? 0:04:28.279 --> 0:04:29.919 So let's talk about the margins first. 0:04:31.320 --> 0:04:34.000 And this is really important because in a high inflation environment, 0:04:34.080 --> 0:04:35.960 usually stocks don't do as well as they do in 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:39.799 a low inflation er environment unless earnings are growing above trend, 0:04:40.279 --> 0:04:42.560 and they do particularly well when margins are growing. So 0:04:42.880 --> 0:04:45.920 what the history shows is that stocks can do as 0:04:46.000 --> 0:04:48.480 well in a high inflation environment as they do in 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:51.560 a low inflation environment if margins are growing, and that's 0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:53.680 why you see the stock market as resilient as it is. 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:55.960 As it relates to wages, wages are growing. 0:04:56.040 --> 0:04:57.800 They're growing at about three and a half percent, and 0:04:57.839 --> 0:04:59.800 that's about where you want it right. When it gets 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:03.960 over four, that generally becomes a self sustaining kind of problem. 0:05:04.040 --> 0:05:07.400 That's twenty twenty two three and a half percent, with 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:10.680 inflation kind of around three. Let's say that's been the average. 0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:13.680 That's real wage growth. And again that's very different than 0:05:13.720 --> 0:05:15.840 what we were seeing with the inflation of twenty two 0:05:15.839 --> 0:05:18.640 to twenty three, when we had a record period of 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:21.440 negative real wage growth for the consumers. So the consumer here, 0:05:21.440 --> 0:05:24.039 and I think this is the biggest contrarian call. We 0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:27.920 all know how difficult the consumer's been, how K shaped 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:30.159 it's been, but look at the bottom part of the k. 0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:32.680 All of a sudden, instead of adding ten thousand jobs 0:05:32.720 --> 0:05:34.599 a month, we're adding one hundred and eighty thousand jobs 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:34.960 a month. 0:05:35.320 --> 0:05:36.640 And the biggest decline. 0:05:36.320 --> 0:05:38.760 In the unemployment rate so far this year is folks, 0:05:39.120 --> 0:05:41.840 some college degree, high school diploma, less than a high 0:05:41.839 --> 0:05:43.760 school diploma. I think that bottom part of the k 0:05:43.920 --> 0:05:45.200 is set to do a little bit better than what 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:46.280 we've seen over the last year. 0:05:46.400 --> 0:05:48.280 See what do you think the FED does next week? 0:05:48.320 --> 0:05:50.400 With all of this, I think you're going to see 0:05:50.400 --> 0:05:51.520 the Fed likely on hold. 0:05:51.760 --> 0:05:55.840 What I expect to hear from Warsh is how he's 0:05:55.880 --> 0:05:57.320 going to look at things. He's not going to come 0:05:57.320 --> 0:05:59.200 out and say, hey, we're not hiking, or we're hiking. 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:01.599 I think he's going to maybe reiterate that he's going 0:06:01.640 --> 0:06:04.240 to look at trim mean measures of inflation. I think 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:06.719 he's going to lay out a framework or a series 0:06:06.760 --> 0:06:10.840 of breadcrumbs that will communicate to the market that this 0:06:10.880 --> 0:06:11.920 Fed is not going to hike. 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:14.080 And I really think that's. 0:06:13.680 --> 0:06:16.400 Going to hike this year because here's why. 0:06:16.480 --> 0:06:17.400 What is it going to do? 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:20.120 The parts of the economy that are rates sensitive have 0:06:20.240 --> 0:06:22.320 already been in a recession. That's been what we've talked 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:24.600 about around this table. So are we going to punish 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:28.640 the low end consumer more? Are we going to punish 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:31.960 small businesses more? Because you can raise rates all you want, 0:06:32.040 --> 0:06:34.479 it's not lowering a chip price, it's not lowering a 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:36.680 price of a gas turbine because the buyers don't need 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:40.280 debt and their price in sensitive. So what you don't 0:06:40.320 --> 0:06:43.600 want to do is hike rates and destroy those interest 0:06:43.680 --> 0:06:45.799 rates sensitive parts of the market, so that if AI 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:49.360 Capac slows down, you find yourself in a negative cycle. 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:52.920 So I think this FED will understand that. I hope 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:54.960 that they'll understand that. I think it'd be a real 0:06:55.000 --> 0:06:56.880 policy or to get too aggressive. 0:06:56.520 --> 0:06:58.360 On it's say you look if it's something duvish relative 0:06:58.400 --> 0:06:59.920 to Mohok shanks BacT tent. 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:03.400 I'm expecting him to drop some bread crumbs, and the 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:06.160 bread crumbs would be things like I'm going to focus 0:07:06.160 --> 0:07:08.359 on trim mean inflation. 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:09.920 I on, Wait, what's up? 0:07:10.000 --> 0:07:11.240 I'm going to all wag on si. 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:15.120 That's the question, right, because he does have the hardest 0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:17.840 management role I think of any FED share in a while, 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:21.800 particularly with his predecessor sitting there apparently keeping a low profile, 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:24.840 but then giving speeches that aren't so low profile. So 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:30.040 we're gonna see We've always assumed that even though it's 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:33.720 a committee, the FED share sets the direction. I would 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:37.400 expect that Warsh, being well prepared and very interested in 0:07:37.400 --> 0:07:39.320 this job for a long time, will be able to 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:42.800 navigate that we will see if it really is a 0:07:42.800 --> 0:07:45.840 committee strap in. 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:47.880 He's had ten years to think about it, that's for sure. 0:07:48.160 --> 0:07:49.680 He's very well prepared. 0:07:49.400 --> 0:07:52.239 For this out of town stay with us multiple impex 0:07:52.280 --> 0:08:04.480 Savana's coming up off to this, Dons went Bush writes 0:08:04.520 --> 0:08:06.880 in the following while there will be somewhere race that 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:09.640 the mamm of SpaceX will take away some oxygen from 0:08:09.640 --> 0:08:11.680 the tech semi trade. This will be a short term 0:08:11.720 --> 0:08:13.560 bump in a road. Dan joints a snap for. 0:08:13.600 --> 0:08:15.000 More Dankamonic greed to be here. 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:17.040 The eppetite for this IPO, I think makes it makes 0:08:17.040 --> 0:08:18.880 a fantastic point. A lot of people talking about the 0:08:18.880 --> 0:08:20.880 same thing, just trying to get ahead of the index inclusion, 0:08:20.920 --> 0:08:21.360 aren't they. 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:24.040 Look, I think that that's definitely a play, and I 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:26.920 think to say it's not would be wrong because of 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:29.800 just the unique situation here from the indexing coming out 0:08:29.800 --> 0:08:31.960 of the gates. But look, at the end of the day, 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:35.640 it does come down to it's viewed as a derivative 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:37.880 of the AI revolution in terms of like how you're 0:08:37.880 --> 0:08:42.080 going to play space data AI. And look, this is 0:08:42.160 --> 0:08:45.120 it's a test for the market in terms of not 0:08:45.200 --> 0:08:48.480 just SpaceX. But the ripple effect a cross the rise offact, 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:50.480 and I think that's what you're seeing you're starting last 0:08:50.480 --> 0:08:52.280 week in terms of the sell off that we've seen 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:54.760 in semi is. I think it's playing in the just 0:08:55.080 --> 0:08:57.560 it's a little white knuckle moment that we're going through 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:00.920 in tech just to see how this is the reception 0:09:01.040 --> 0:09:01.959 ultimately is going to be. 0:09:02.000 --> 0:09:04.760 But it's not just this, it's pushback to equity capital 0:09:04.800 --> 0:09:08.560 raises elsewhere. The report of maybe Meta doing the same thing, 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:11.560 We've had another player this morning suggests they're going to 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:14.000 do the same thing, pushback in the equity market. 0:09:14.160 --> 0:09:15.600 Do we have the space for these names? 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:18.120 Look, I believe you do. And I think even if 0:09:18.160 --> 0:09:20.840 you look like Google after they did the offering, the 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:22.560 view that you were going to have a big sell off, 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:25.760 but instead I think actually took it pretty well. In 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:29.680 terms of this talk, Look, it's four trillion dollars that's 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:31.840 going to be spent over the coming years. This is 0:09:31.880 --> 0:09:34.400 an arms race playing out. I don't care whether it's 0:09:34.440 --> 0:09:36.960 SpaceX anthrop it go up in the AI in terms 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:39.560 of the CAPA rays that we're seeing, and I think 0:09:39.679 --> 0:09:42.600 these companies understand the demands there. The difference is if 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:45.679 we go back six months ago, it's like show demonization. 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:48.160 Is Capax going to accelerate? 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:49.600 It's happening. 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:52.000 And I think now that there's more of a green light, 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:55.320 I think that just give further confidence. I think investors 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:57.760 now are able to see around the corner because we 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:01.160 just saw this weekend like our Taiwan chack like further 0:10:01.360 --> 0:10:04.040 just tighter supply, which is just more bullish or chips 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:07.360 more bullish for what we see, you know across semis 0:10:07.440 --> 0:10:08.880 in obviously cross memory. 0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:09.360 That's it. 0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:11.080 I mean a lot of people can buy into the 0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:14.240 story and say this truly is a revolution, but say 0:10:14.280 --> 0:10:17.959 that the pricing is already pretty full, especially because as 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:21.240 the supply becomes constrained, people are paying more and more 0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:23.280 for it, and they're raising debt that they have to 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:26.080 pay back later with future revenues that go to that. 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:28.080 At what point do you see that as having a 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:29.000 viable argument. 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:32.880 Yeah, Look, it all comes down to like monization on 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:34.400 the use cases. 0:10:34.080 --> 0:10:35.080 Not just on the enterprise. 0:10:35.160 --> 0:10:38.760 We're on the consumer side, because look, you build it, 0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:41.400 will they come. So now it's all built, you see 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:44.160 the demand there. But now it comes down to the 0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:46.160 next phase and you got to see an earnings. The 0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:48.360 big thing that the big reason we saw the rally 0:10:48.600 --> 0:10:50.800 that we have. It goes back to like obviously the 0:10:50.840 --> 0:10:53.240 negative sentiment in March, but then you go through earnings 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:55.520 in April and may I mean those were you know, 0:10:55.600 --> 0:10:57.880 I think Jalen Brunson like in terms of what we 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:00.719 saw in terms of numbers now come down there. It's 0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:02.920 setting up for what I believe is going to be 0:11:03.520 --> 0:11:07.640 earnings over the coming quarters that will further support tech stocks. 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:10.160 You know, we continue to think NAZAC thirty thousand the 0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:11.000 next six months. 0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:13.760 You talk about the consumer facing side, you have to 0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:15.480 see it there. Does that mean that you like Chinese 0:11:15.520 --> 0:11:17.679 tech stocks better than the US that's catering more to. 0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:20.840 Corporate look, but it's also why I like in Cupertino 0:11:20.920 --> 0:11:23.559 what Apple's doing now the start at least having an 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:27.920 adequate AI strategy because on the consumer side it will 0:11:27.960 --> 0:11:30.640 come and go through App. I continue to view them 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:33.760 as a toll collector on the on the AI highway 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:38.360 book in China, robotics is where they're winning. And I 0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:41.120 think you cannot just view this market. It's not just 0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:43.680 US China. There's gonna be a lot of winners, and 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:46.160 we continue view Iebob with some others in terms of 0:11:46.200 --> 0:11:49.840 big tech in China and where that continues to really be. 0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:51.360 I think just start the next phase. 0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:53.120 Dan, speaking of China, what do you make of the 0:11:53.200 --> 0:11:56.560 US looking at potentially nationalizing parts of these companies similar 0:11:56.600 --> 0:11:57.280 to what China does. 0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:00.640 Look, it's this is balancing out, and I think it 0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:02.520 speaks to like, you're not going to see this sort 0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:05.280 of like when I'd be like nationalization, because the reality 0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:07.600 there is that it further I think stumps from a 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:08.920 regulatory perspective. 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:11.080 But what you do think we're going to see that 0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:11.760 I started to do it. 0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:13.520 So I don't think in the US you're going to 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:16.640 see nationally, but I do think you will see steaks 0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:17.520 just like Intel. 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:18.880 Well, how is that not nationalization? 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:22.480 Look, I think that's you know the problem is is 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:26.160 that a big part of where Intel is today it's 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:30.000 because of the investment that you saw from Trump administration. 0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:32.800 Then it comes down to like, was that the right move? 0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:36.319 I'd argue in that situation, I think it was the 0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:39.160 right move because you can't have Intel basically being a 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:44.400 blockbuster video of the of tech. But I think selectively 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:48.320 they're going to take steaks in different companies because look, 0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:51.400 it is true, like in what's happening in China, that 0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:52.560 is an all stalk. 0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:55.400 About what we're buying, what happens to demand for the 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:59.120 products that open a ionthropic at distributing right now, when 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:02.400 they start changing, what it actually costs, what happens to 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:04.520 the amount and what are we saying already happen in 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:05.920 C suites around this country. 0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:08.000 Okay, I think you're gonna you're gonna have to see 0:13:08.000 --> 0:13:11.120 the cost of tokenization continue to go down. You will 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:13.320 see limits in terms of you know what we see 0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:15.960 on caps in some companies. But I think it also 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:20.240 is going to come down to like as companies monetize that, 0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:23.959 and as they know that those dollars are being spent 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:28.319 for revenue that's accelerating within these companies. That's where all 0:13:28.320 --> 0:13:30.600 of a sudden, the two charts start to cross. 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:33.280 Where do you see revenue acceleration because of AI adoption? 0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:34.560 Why do you see that right now? 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:36.559 Well, I think it's it's already started happening in the 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:38.800 data layer. I mean, if you look at snowflake, you 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:40.840 get data, dog, you get into a. 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:43.040 Data So we just start off. It was just chips 0:13:43.600 --> 0:13:47.120 now data layer. Then it's going to be software. 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:48.959 Oracle obviously is going to be key in terms of 0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:51.679 what we see from them. Hyper scours that continue to 0:13:51.720 --> 0:13:53.800 think are not being factor in terms of the true 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:55.840 moanization like a Microsoft. 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:57.880 Being which one for example, Microsoft and who else? 0:13:58.120 --> 0:14:00.160 Look I think, I mean, if I look at go 0:14:00.320 --> 0:14:03.320 back to like what's happened in Google and a year 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:07.400 ago New York City cab drivers parish nowfbat now what 0:14:07.440 --> 0:14:13.800 they're monetizing on hyperscour on search, on Gemini narratives are 0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:16.400 very easy where there was change. And I just think 0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:20.920 I continue to think this is third inning one out relative. 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:23.400 To aim more confident on that NaSTA color the next gun. 0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:25.440 It's game four, Well I can do that. 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:28.000 I think nixt game for by Ultimately, do you think 0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:30.720 Nixon five? Now's that thirty? 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:31.840 They went in San Antonio? 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:34.320 I think they win in Sanntorio. 0:14:34.400 --> 0:14:37.880 Okay, maybe we should go you going never know? 0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:41.160 Okay, considering it, considering, Okay. 0:14:41.000 --> 0:14:44.520 Stay with us, multil impag Savannah's coming up after this, 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:56.760 joining us now to discuss Tefanie Wilding of Pimcot Tifaney. 0:14:56.760 --> 0:15:00.960 Welcome to the program. Four handle on inflation, what anticipated 0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:03.920 haven't seen that for three years, Tiffany, Can this FED 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:04.520 look through this? 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:09.960 Yeah? I think the key question right now is, you know, 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:13.800 is inflation elevated as a result of negative supply shocks 0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:18.040 or a positive demand in the economy that's lifting inflation. 0:15:18.640 --> 0:15:21.560 And clearly what you're seeing from the headline story and 0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:24.760 the higher energy prices is that is being driven by 0:15:25.280 --> 0:15:27.280 you know, the negative supply shocks that we're seeing coming 0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:29.800 out of the Middle East and high gasoline prices as 0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:32.080 a result. You know, Now if we look at core, 0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:34.400 you know, I think that you know, there's a there's 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:36.240 more of a question there, and I think that's why 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:39.560 you're starting to see some FED officials that are charking 0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:41.240 talking about interest rate hikes. 0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:41.880 You know. 0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:42.640 But at the same. 0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:45.200 Time, we know that we've had some pass through of 0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:49.560 tariff higher higher costs as a result of tariffs, and 0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:51.840 you had the AI story as well, which is has 0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:54.240 been bleeding over into inflation a bit. So there's some 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:57.640 supply shocks on that side as well or kind of 0:15:57.640 --> 0:16:00.320 one off things, you know, and we think out side 0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:03.360 of that, you know, core inflation in the US still 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:07.000 looks like you know, it's on a trajectory that you 0:16:07.040 --> 0:16:09.240 know that that eventually should be okay for the Fed. 0:16:09.360 --> 0:16:11.480 Now again, well we'll get some of the energy that 0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:16.960 is bleeding into uh the core, airfares elevated and things 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:19.480 like that, you know. But ultimately, we do think they 0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:23.240 have room here to look through and and wait and 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:24.440 see how this plays out. 0:16:24.600 --> 0:16:27.160 Definitely, we've heard that for five years, and inflation has 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:29.440 been a puff target for five years, and the incoming 0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:32.960 FED chair in his own words that inflation is a choice. 0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:37.280 Do they need to do something care just to anchor credibility? 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:40.840 Yeah? I mean well so as of right now. 0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:43.320 You know, if you look at a range of estimates 0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:47.760 for inflation expectations, you know, they they look pretty well anchored. 0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:50.280 You know, the markets certainly are giving the Fed a 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:53.640 lot of credibility. And if you look across the surveys, 0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:55.960 you know, we would argue the surveys, you know, look 0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:58.640 pretty well anchored as well. Of course, one year inflation 0:16:58.720 --> 0:17:02.040 expectations from very survey have gone up, but they always 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:05.520 sort of tend to lag inflationary pressures, you know, so 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:08.040 I think they again, the Fed has some room here 0:17:08.520 --> 0:17:11.040 to take a look and see and see what's going on. 0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:13.760 You know, the other thing about negative supply shocks is, 0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:15.800 you know, it's kind of a it's a more difficult 0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:19.040 or tricky choice in terms of the dual mandate. So 0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:22.119 although it's putting upward pressure on inflation, it's it's putting 0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:26.359 downward pressure on activity, potentially some upward pressure on the 0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:29.639 unemployment rates. So they're going to absolutely weigh that piece 0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:32.560 of this as well. We do think at the next 0:17:32.640 --> 0:17:36.120 f o MC meeting that they will drop the forward guidance. 0:17:36.200 --> 0:17:39.080 Most likely there was you know, the so called easing 0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:42.040 bias in the language and the statement. If you sort 0:17:42.040 --> 0:17:45.560 of squinted, maybe you could see that, and it's a nuance. 0:17:45.600 --> 0:17:48.440 We think they probably will drop just a signal you 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:50.840 know that there are more two sided risks here. But 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:52.440 at the end of the day, we think the FED 0:17:52.560 --> 0:17:55.359