1 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:13,039 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three 2 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 1: six ' five. We are part of the Action Network. 3 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:22,640 Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. 4 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: I am joined as I am in every episode by 5 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, Michael bad Ray, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, 6 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: Hello Chad. 7 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:37,400 Speaker 2: How you doing? 8 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 1: My guy brother? We've been apart for a couple of weeks, 9 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:44,480 Speaker 1: and I'm glad to be looking at you again. Dude. 10 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 1: This is our kickoff. From now on, we are a 11 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 1: Tuesday Thursday podcast plus Sundays when the season starts. Talking 12 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: only NFL. We got Sean Kerner and Nick Giffen are 13 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: addictive analyst geniuses. Today, we got Bill Barnwell on Thursday. 14 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:10,680 Speaker 1: We got division previews starting next Tuesday. We made it. 15 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,559 Speaker 1: We made it through the off season. We are into 16 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: the football. How you feel when you come home? What's happening? 17 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:20,960 Speaker 3: I'll be back. 18 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 4: I think I'm com back into August. So I had 19 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 4: to do one more Vegas trip. I actually went to 20 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:28,960 Speaker 4: Austin while we had our little break, went to a 21 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 4: bunch of comedy shows. I'm a huge comedy guy, so 22 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 4: I went saw I don't know if you ever heard 23 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 4: of a show called kill Tony. So it's basically it's 24 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 4: a podcast they do like a live show and it's 25 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 4: amateurs come up with you one minute of stand up 26 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 4: and usually they're terrible, like they absolutely bomb. So it's 27 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 4: probably one of the funniest shows I've ever seen, kill 28 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 4: Tony if people have ever checked it out. In that chat, 29 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 4: I mean, honestly, I'm losing my mind. I already told 30 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 4: you that I'm playing way too much poker. The World 31 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 4: Tiers of Poker had the final table. I wanted to 32 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 4: go to that for Vegas, but I couldn't make it. 33 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 4: But I am playing way too much poker, Chad. So 34 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 4: it's good that football's coming back because I am really 35 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 4: really getting all in where it's like I'm excited to 36 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 4: do football again, but I really love poker again. So 37 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,640 Speaker 4: it's nice to take a break because I'm I'm playing, 38 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 4: Like when I'm going to Vegas, I'm doing two tournaments 39 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 4: when I go there in a couple of weeks, and 40 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 4: I think that's gonna be it for me, until of course, 41 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 4: next year I'm trying to go to the World Hears 42 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 4: of Poker people, So I mean, the action never We're 43 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 4: gonna figure that out. But I am full un addicted 44 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 4: again to playing poker. 45 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 1: Chad Simon Hunter the only person in the world whose 46 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: punishment is exile in Hawaii so he can travel the country, 47 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: going to comedy shows and play in poker. Reminder. The 48 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast is proudly presented by BET three six five, 49 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 1: the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code 50 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 1: action to get BET three six fives exclusive sign up 51 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: offer that one dollar on any game get two hundred 52 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: dollars in bonus. Betts must be twenty one or older. 53 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: Offer is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virgina, and 54 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:09,639 Speaker 1: Iowa in the United States. Gambling Problem call or text 55 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: one eight hundred Gambler Simon, Like I said, we haven't 56 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 1: seen each other for a while. I was on vacation. 57 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 1: I went away and I went to Seattle for thirty 58 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 1: six hours with my wife, our two kids, and my mom, 59 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 1: who lives in the Bay Area, met us, and then 60 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 1: we went to Bend, Oregon. My sister has a house 61 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 1: in Bend, Oregon. Freaking beautiful there. It's like summer camp 62 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 1: up there. Have you ever been there? 63 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 4: No, I've never been, but I've heard about like all 64 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 4: the national parks and how beautiful it is. 65 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 2: The highest I've been in San Francisco. 66 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 4: So definitely on my bucket list to go check out Oregon, Washington. 67 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 4: Just that whole area looks amazing. 68 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 1: Two highlights from our vacation, of which there were many. 69 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: Number One, my older son, who as everybody knows, is 70 00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 1: at Trexel University. He showed up, We saw him. He 71 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 1: met medicine Newark Airport from Philly and had a massive 72 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: tattoo that was a surprise to everybody. Hed it's it's 73 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:17,840 Speaker 1: on his the inside of his forearm, and and he's 74 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 1: a you know, it's a it's a the replica of 75 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 1: a massive weapon that is the weapon in his favorite 76 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:29,919 Speaker 1: like RPG game. You know. He goes to Drexel and 77 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 1: studies game design. They've got a really good game design 78 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:36,840 Speaker 1: program there. His dream is to create dungeons and dragons 79 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 1: like role playing games, and so this is the weapon 80 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: that is most important and one of his favorite like 81 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:48,840 Speaker 1: adventure RPG slash video games. So that was exciting. And 82 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:52,200 Speaker 1: then my sixteen year old after the Mariners game in 83 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 1: Seattle one night, the uber pickup was about half a 84 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: block away from the stadium, Great Stadium, had a great night. 85 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:01,279 Speaker 1: Half a block away, I happened to be right in 86 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 1: front of a strip club, and so he kept trying 87 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: to get my mom to take a picture with him 88 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 1: in front of the strip club, of which she rarely 89 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 1: is onto these things, but she was onto this, and 90 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 1: she tried to sneak away several times, could not. So 91 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 1: I've got this great picture of my sixteen year old 92 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 1: and my mom in front of dream On in Seattle. 93 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 2: There are some good memories right there, Chad. 94 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:28,479 Speaker 1: They are good memories. You know what else is a 95 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:33,719 Speaker 1: good memory? Last summer when I was with the NFL 96 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: crew in LA including Nick Giffen and Sean Kerner, and 97 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 1: we talked about new ideas for the football season, the 98 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: best idea we had of the two we had two 99 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 1: great ideas. One bet What Happens Live with Doctor Nick, 100 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,799 Speaker 1: which is the best betting halftime show in the history 101 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 1: of the universe and was hugely popular. We're bringing it 102 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: back this year with Nick Giffen. The Luck Rankings was 103 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 1: turned in to be turned out to be an incredible 104 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 1: betting tool. Sean and Nick are on the show today 105 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 1: to discuss Hello Sean, Hello, Nick. 106 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 2: What's up, guys? 107 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:20,719 Speaker 1: Nick was on Mute. It's still training camp, right, We're 108 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: still working it out. Fellas. We've talked about the luck 109 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 1: rankings so much last year on the podcast and it 110 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 1: really became invaluable. Tell us remind everybody, and if there's 111 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 1: any way I can get credit for this fantastic I'm. 112 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 5: About to give Nick the credit, but I'll go over 113 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:39,599 Speaker 5: the origin story first, but that the concept of luck 114 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 5: rankings in general is something just I've been using for 115 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 5: several years now, you know, and the idea is to 116 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:48,479 Speaker 5: look at various factors that have an impact on a 117 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 5: team's overall record, but they're typically based on luck. So 118 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 5: these are factors that typically are going to rest towards 119 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 5: the league average over time. And just by doing this 120 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 5: you can get an idea of what teams might be 121 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 5: over or underrated at any given time. Really, So, you know, 122 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 5: some of these factors I would look at were one score, 123 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 5: game records, strength of schedule, injury luck, fumble luck, turnover differential, 124 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 5: and other factors. I would mainly use it for season 125 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 5: win totals and was you know, they were very successful. 126 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 5: But you know, since NFL doesn't provide us a ton 127 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 5: of data. You know, each team only plays seventeen games. 128 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 5: This is something that could be very useful in season 129 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 5: as well. So, you know, heading into last season, we'd 130 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 5: tasked Nick to come up with something that was a 131 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 5: way to sort of encompass at all and give us 132 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 5: just luck rankings. He knocked it out of the freaking part. 133 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 5: So I'm very excited for you know, luck rankings heading 134 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 5: into this season. But it turned into like one of 135 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 5: the best handicapping tools I could think of. 136 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: Well, Nick, explain yourself, what did you do without getting 137 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 1: into too many details, but explain a little bit of 138 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 1: the science. 139 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 2: Yeah. 140 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 6: I think it's interesting because Sean said, you know, we 141 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 6: don't get a lot of data from the NFL, but 142 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 6: play by play data for third two teams over seventeen 143 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 6: games each is a lot of data, and we can 144 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 6: harness that data into luck rankings. 145 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 3: You know, just a general concept. 146 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 6: Let's say the Philadelphia Eagles have fourth and goal from 147 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 6: the one yard line and they're trying to punch the 148 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 6: ball in the end zone. They're a pretty darn good team, 149 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 6: and you know, we'd expect them to punch it in 150 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 6: a good chunk at the time. So if they don't. 151 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 6: It's actually unlucky. It's not because they're bad, it's just 152 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 6: because maybe it didn't work out that play. But if 153 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 6: they had one hundred opportunities or ten thousand opportunities, they 154 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 6: punched it in at a very high rate. And with 155 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 6: all of that data, we can take all of that 156 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 6: play by play and not just think of like the 157 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:42,320 Speaker 6: very common unlucky things we think of like fumble luck, 158 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 6: for example, who recovered the fumble? But each individual play 159 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 6: has its own element of luck or good or bad luck. 160 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 6: And so that's what I was kind of trying to do. 161 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 6: And you know, it worked out pretty well. But the 162 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:58,840 Speaker 6: whole idea behind it is something called an expected score. 163 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 6: And we'll talk about that, I'm sure plenty. 164 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 1: So we're going to and we're gonna get into like 165 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 1: the luckiest teams too. But Simon, I want to ask 166 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:12,559 Speaker 1: your opinion right now, because I don't know about you. 167 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 1: I was thinking about the luck rankings when I was 168 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:20,200 Speaker 1: looking at season win totals, just to see if like 169 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: bookmakers were overestimating the market on things that we might 170 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 1: have recognized as teams that had incredible luck in one 171 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 1: score games. And now I might have a higher win 172 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 1: total because they know the public is going to bet 173 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 1: on this team because they did so well last year. 174 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say I took a lot from luck Rankings. 175 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:42,719 Speaker 4: The biggest thing I learned from it was they kind 176 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 4: of are on par with me and you where we 177 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:47,959 Speaker 4: love to buy low. Like me and Chad, there's nothing 178 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:49,480 Speaker 4: more than we liked them buying a team that just 179 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 4: got blown out by thirty points. 180 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 2: Guess who else loves that? The luck rankings, So it's one. 181 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 4: Of those where most of the times me and you, Chad, 182 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:57,560 Speaker 4: we're going to take teams that were super unlucky the 183 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 4: previous week, right, and or the course of season two, 184 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 4: I kind of got lucky in the sense of with 185 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 4: these luck rankings, I realized this Giants team just ain't normal, 186 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:11,199 Speaker 4: Like there is no my system can't get a read 187 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 4: on them. The luck Rankings was the same way, whereas 188 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:15,760 Speaker 4: like this is the luckiest team in football, they're due 189 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 4: for regression. That regression didn't come until they played the 190 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 4: Eagles in the playoffs, Right. They just were very lucky 191 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 4: all season and people kept trying to go against that, 192 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 4: being like, you know, the Giants turner as good as 193 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 4: they are. 194 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,679 Speaker 2: Yes, the coaching was really incredible. But eventually they'll come 195 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 2: back down to earth. They didn't. Same with the Vikings. 196 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:34,839 Speaker 4: Right, another team that's on this list that was very 197 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 4: lucky last year, and yes, a couple of my biggest 198 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 4: bets the Eagles in Week two against them Cowboys, I 199 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 4: think it was in Week nine against them. I really 200 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 4: picked my spots well against the Bikings. But overall, the 201 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 4: Vikings were incredibly lucky. 202 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 2: Right. They had so many one score games. 203 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 4: I mean, holy crap, I'll never forget that Bills game, right, 204 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 4: that game where it was fourth and one on the 205 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 4: goal line. They don't get in right, Kirk Cousins tries 206 00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 4: to QB sneaky to get stuffed. Josh Allam next play 207 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 4: on the one fumbles a snap into the end zone. 208 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 4: The Bills lose that game of the Vikings. Like that's 209 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:06,199 Speaker 4: really stupid. But that, to me is why we love 210 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 4: betting football. Like that's how you can win so much 211 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 4: money betting football. Where the public will perceive things in 212 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 4: one way, but like these luck rankings will tell you, 213 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:16,079 Speaker 4: don't look at it that way. There's other ways to 214 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 4: look at the game. So that's probably my fair way 215 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 4: to take away from this luck rankings. It's not the 216 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 4: end all be all, but when these guys come into 217 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:24,200 Speaker 4: us and they say there's a huge discrepancy, right, one 218 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 4: team is the lucky steam in football and one team 219 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:29,559 Speaker 4: is the most unlucky football team of football, and it's week. 220 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 2: Ten or eleven. 221 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 4: I mean, I think me and Chad ten for ten 222 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:35,319 Speaker 4: always took that really unlucky team, especially that late in 223 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 4: the season. So to me, it's just another way of 224 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 4: measuring football that teams will just regress to the meme. 225 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 4: But there's always a couple of unicorns, which we're about 226 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 4: to talk about. I'm guessing it was the Eagles. I'm 227 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 4: guessing as the Vikings, and we just talked about the Giants. 228 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 4: Those were very, very lucky teams last year. So to me, 229 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 4: I just love it. It's another metric to measure football 230 00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 4: and it's just a different way of thinking. So again, 231 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 4: both these guys know they're both brilliant, and it's just 232 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 4: a really cool idea that these are the early days, 233 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 4: right if you're going to keep getting better the more 234 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:03,959 Speaker 4: they put time into and keep building it. So I'm 235 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 4: excited to see where it goes in these next couple 236 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 4: of years. 237 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 1: Well, what's interesting is it's not just about the unlucky teams. 238 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 1: It is about the lucky teams and understanding. You know, Simon, 239 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: you and I and Sean and Nick too. We love 240 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 1: to bet on the team that just had a huge 241 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 1: unlucky variance in the week before and might be the 242 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 1: better team, and then going into the following week they're 243 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 1: a little bit shorter favorites than they might have otherwise been. 244 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: And we think there's value goes the other way too, 245 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 1: like teams that were lucky all season long and keep 246 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 1: getting overvalued by the bookmakers gives us an opportunity for fading. 247 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 1: So Nick, you know you're shaking your head. Take me 248 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:52,080 Speaker 1: through some specifics from last season on teams that were 249 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 1: overvalued consistently because of what you saw in the luck rankings. 250 00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:00,080 Speaker 6: Yeah, so you know, I think Sean was actually and 251 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,079 Speaker 6: go over the overvalued teams, and I was gonna do 252 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 6: the undervalued teams. But you do it whatever. 253 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 5: Listen, Chad doesn't read outline, so I don't. 254 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 1: I'm fucking talent man. Okay, I'm just getting back from vacation. 255 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:17,200 Speaker 1: I'm barely here right now. You guys, pretend I'm not 256 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 1: even here. Answer, reject to the premise of every question. 257 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 1: Just answer it the way you want to answer it. Sean, 258 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:25,440 Speaker 1: go ahead, all. 259 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 5: Right, I'll go first. And just to clarify, when I 260 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 5: said we don't have as much data, I was kind 261 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 5: of referring to other sports like baseball, where every team 262 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 5: plays every day for frigging one hundred and sixty two games. 263 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 5: So when it comes to NFL, we just don't have 264 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:40,560 Speaker 5: as many games go off and the general public is 265 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:42,600 Speaker 5: going to see a team's record and kind of base 266 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 5: their opinion based on that. So the luckiest team from 267 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 5: last year was, of course the Minnesota Vikings. 268 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 1: Who win Minnesota Vikings. 269 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 5: Thirteen and four. Last year, they went an unprecedented eleven 270 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 5: to oh in one score games and just one score games. 271 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 5: In general, you know, you typically expect teams to win 272 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 5: those half the time. You know, certainly there's teams that 273 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 5: are you know, more talented, better coach, where you know 274 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 5: you can maybe expect them to win those a little 275 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 5: bit more often, but in general, most teams are gonna 276 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 5: win those games half the time. So you could say 277 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 5: they had about five and a half wins over expected 278 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 5: in one score games. So the record is gonna be 279 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 5: very misleading. They also had the third best fumble luck, 280 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:25,440 Speaker 5: fifth best injury luck. But I think a lot of 281 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 5: people do realize that they were a lucky team, So 282 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 5: I don't think they're a team that people are flocking 283 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 5: to necessarily. But either way, you know, it took a 284 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 5: lot of luck for them to go thirteen and four. 285 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 5: It's gonna be very hard for them to repeat this season. 286 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 5: And some of the other teams. Simon actually mentioned, you know, 287 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 5: the Eagles were the second luckiest team. They're fourteen to three, 288 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 5: obviously a very very good team, but they were seven 289 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 5: to one in one score games, third best in injury luck, 290 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 5: and they went to the Super Bowl. So I think 291 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 5: they are a team that the public might be overrating. 292 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 5: I mean I probably will too. I think they're one 293 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 5: of the best in the league, but it's unlikely they 294 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 5: will benefit from a lot of the same factors this year, 295 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 5: so they could take a step back still be a 296 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 5: double digit win team, but maybe not as good as 297 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 5: we think. And then, of course the Giants. You know, 298 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 5: they went nine and seven and won last year eight 299 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 5: four and one in one score games, and you know, 300 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 5: the craziest stat for the Giants, I think was they 301 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 5: spent the fifth most time trailing in time and possession, 302 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 5: So it's kind of a miracle they ended up with 303 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 5: their winning record and made the playoffs. You know, some 304 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 5: of that you can contribute to having competent head coaching 305 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 5: and Brian Dable, but overall, you know, they were a 306 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 5: team that went very lucky, and we should expect to 307 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 5: regress back towards league average in those metrics this year. 308 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 5: So it's gonna be very hard for them to repeat, 309 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 5: you know, that winning record last year. 310 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 1: What do you do? 311 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 3: Though? 312 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: I think the NFC is fascinating to me, and the 313 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 1: NFC East particularly fascinating because we all know the stat 314 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 1: every year there's a different winner for the NFC East 315 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 1: and the Eagles. We're so dominant last year, as lucky 316 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: as they were, but also they have arguably the best 317 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 1: roster in the NFC, the best quarterback in the NFC, 318 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 1: the best d line in the NFC, the best management 319 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 1: in the NFC. And yet are we supposed to start 320 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 1: fading the Giants are fading the Eagles? Are we fading 321 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 1: the Giants? Do we have any faith in Washington? Does 322 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 1: this mean that we now got to put our eggs 323 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 1: in the Cowboys basket. If you're projecting a little bit, 324 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 1: how do you incorporate luck rankings into projecting what will happen? 325 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 6: Well, So here's an interesting little stat The whole NFC 326 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 6: East ended up in the top nine in our luck rankings. 327 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 6: So which one's going to regress? They all could write 328 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 6: or But then at the same time they're all regressing, 329 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 6: they're all still relatively to each other the same. So 330 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:58,600 Speaker 6: you know, we still should expect the Eagles to be 331 00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:02,160 Speaker 6: very very strong, Cowboys to be very very strong in 332 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:05,639 Speaker 6: that division. But the Giants they actually did end up 333 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:08,160 Speaker 6: regressing during the year. I know Simon said it never came, 334 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 6: but it actually came during the year. They started out 335 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:13,159 Speaker 6: six and one and their final record was nine to 336 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:15,440 Speaker 6: seven in one. So they went three six and one 337 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,920 Speaker 6: over the closing ten games. And guess what their only 338 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:24,679 Speaker 6: wins were against the Washington Commanders, who were bad, the 339 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 6: Houston Texans who were dreadfully bad last in the league 340 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 6: in terms of what our actual strength was from our 341 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 6: luck rankings, and the Indianapolis Colts, who were also very 342 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,639 Speaker 6: very bad, one of the bottom teams in our strength 343 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:42,680 Speaker 6: from the luck rankings. So the Giants did not end 344 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 6: the season. Well, so I just thought that was an 345 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 6: interesting point. And one other thing, you know, Sean mentioned 346 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:52,120 Speaker 6: the three luckiest teams. They all had very winning records. 347 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 6: You might say, well, the luck rankings, that's just saying 348 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:56,919 Speaker 6: these winning teams are lucky. You know, it's kind of 349 00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 6: used as wrong if we look just one year ago, 350 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 6: prior to twenty twenty two, so twenty twenty one. The 351 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:08,359 Speaker 6: Buffalo Bills in twenty twenty one finished the year eleven 352 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 6: and six. They were the last team in luck, dead 353 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 6: last in luck despite being an eleven win team. They 354 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 6: played more like a fourteen win team that year according 355 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 6: to our expected score metric, but they only won eleven games. 356 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,199 Speaker 6: Look what happened in the playoffs. They won big in 357 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 6: the wild card round versus the New England Patriots, who, 358 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 6: funny enough, were also ten and seven. I think it 359 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 6: was in thirtieth in our luck rankings. And then they 360 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:38,880 Speaker 6: lost to Kansas City on the road in overtime, which 361 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 6: was the third strongest team in the NFL based off 362 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 6: of our expected score. So you know, those Bills were unlucky, 363 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 6: and they in the playoffs they played like a team 364 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 6: that had been unlucky all year, they made some really 365 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 6: close games. So you know, this year it so happened 366 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:55,479 Speaker 6: to be a lot of the high winning teams were 367 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 6: the luckiest. But that's not always the case. There was 368 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 6: a year where the Miami Dolphins were the luckiest team 369 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 6: in the NFL and they only had seven wins. So 370 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 6: I just wanted to throw that out there, you know, 371 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 6: I know Sean mentioned three very winning teams. It's not 372 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 6: going to be that way every year. So it's gonna 373 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 6: be interesting to see what twenty twenty three has in 374 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 6: store for the luckiest teams. 375 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:16,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, it definitely. 376 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 4: Stands out from last year. I mean just the Vikings 377 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 4: eleven and zero and one score games. You can be 378 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 4: the laziest better in the world, and it's just like, 379 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 4: how do you not fade that stat? 380 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 2: You don't even need. 381 00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 1: A still won't they still won't know. Right. 382 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 4: It's just one of those things where it's like, Okay, 383 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,359 Speaker 4: now you're in a division where again it's all hype, 384 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 4: it's all bs. But you're expecting Jordan to Love to 385 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 4: take another step this year, Right, He's gonna be the 386 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,880 Speaker 4: starter for the Green Bay. We know good their defenses, 387 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:40,679 Speaker 4: you know, a great of an offensive line, they have, 388 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,159 Speaker 4: and then we already talking knowlge about the Bears, right, 389 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 4: that's that's the next upcoming team. And you have the Lions, 390 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:49,639 Speaker 4: who are the overwhelming favorites. So regression the vikings if 391 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:51,879 Speaker 4: you're just looking for a very boring, simple way to 392 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 4: fade eight team. If a team is eleven to zero 393 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,119 Speaker 4: and one score games, I don't even care if it 394 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 4: was the Eagles, right, they don't care if they had 395 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:00,120 Speaker 4: the greatest roster. Ever, the next year, you have to 396 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 4: fade that team. It's just football does not break that way, 397 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,119 Speaker 4: especially for I think the previous year the Raiders, right, 398 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:07,640 Speaker 4: they were that team that was that way. I think 399 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:09,639 Speaker 4: they were seven and two or seven and three on 400 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 4: one score games. They totally missed the playoffs last year. 401 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,200 Speaker 4: It's just because it's always about regression to the meme. 402 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 4: So to me, that's really interesting that Sean brought it 403 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 4: up that they were eleven zero one score games and 404 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 4: the luck rankings reflected that. Now, let's go to the 405 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:24,640 Speaker 4: unluckiest teams, right, that's what people want to know about 406 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 4: teams last year that were super unlucky. Nick, If you 407 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 4: want to ride off the three guys or two teams 408 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 4: that really stood out to you. 409 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 6: Yeah, so the unluckiest team actually was the New Orleans Saints. 410 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 6: They finished seven and ten, so it's not like it 411 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:38,920 Speaker 6: was a two win team or a three win team 412 00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 6: or four win team that was the unluckiest. It was 413 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:44,360 Speaker 6: the seven and ten Saints. They outgained their opponents by 414 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 6: more than three hundred and twenty yards over the course 415 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 6: of the season, which is about twenty yards per game, 416 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 6: just under twenty yards per game. But the issue was 417 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 6: them finishing drives and their opponents finishing drives. So the 418 00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:01,040 Speaker 6: Saints had twenty five turnovers, their opponents on had seventeen 419 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,720 Speaker 6: and eleven to seven in the fumbles lost category, So 420 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 6: the Saints lost more fumbles than their opponents. That's a 421 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:09,719 Speaker 6: bit unlucky. The other factor was kicking. Will Lutz had 422 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:12,920 Speaker 6: a terrible year. He went twenty three for thirty one. 423 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,400 Speaker 6: That's under seventy five percent, whereas the saints opponents field 424 00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:20,639 Speaker 6: goal kicking over ninety percent. So just in terms of 425 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 6: putting points on the board, when you fumble the ball 426 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:25,760 Speaker 6: and it goes the other team and when your opponents 427 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 6: make field goals and you don't, that's a big swing 428 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 6: throughout the course of the year. That could be a 429 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 6: couple games right there. So you know, we actually had 430 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,400 Speaker 6: them slightly above a fifty to fifty team in terms 431 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,359 Speaker 6: of win loss records, so they probably were like an 432 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 6: eight and a half win team, maybe closer to a 433 00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,240 Speaker 6: nine win team, but they only won seven games. So 434 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 6: that was the number one unlucky team. Number two unluckiest 435 00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:45,640 Speaker 6: was the Houston Texans. 436 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: Time out timeout for once. I want you to get 437 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 1: the other two teams, but everything you're saying scares me 438 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,240 Speaker 1: because the Saints are one of those teams that I 439 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,399 Speaker 1: want to avoid. Like the plag I hate their coach, 440 00:21:56,800 --> 00:22:00,680 Speaker 1: I hate their quarterback, I don't like their offensive, the roster. 441 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:04,440 Speaker 1: I think their defense can be very good. But every 442 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,120 Speaker 1: week I now think I'm going to have to bet 443 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 1: the Saints. 444 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,200 Speaker 2: They got Jimmy Graham back to Chad. Jimmy Graham's back. 445 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 1: Jesus, it's making it's already making me sick to my stomach. 446 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,159 Speaker 1: I'm more shick to my stomach betting the Saints than 447 00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 1: the team you were going to talk about next. 448 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 6: It's interesting. Yeah, well that team is the Houston Texans. 449 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 6: They just you know, they were abysmal, but they were 450 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,159 Speaker 6: a bit unlucky. I mean, they lost an overtime to 451 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 6: the Chiefs, the Kansas City Chiefs. They took two overtime 452 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,199 Speaker 6: in the regular season in not a meaningless game, you know, 453 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,879 Speaker 6: not Week eighteen. They were three, six and one in 454 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:41,840 Speaker 6: one score game. So you know they were bad, but 455 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,679 Speaker 6: they probably weren't as bad as their record indicates. So 456 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,440 Speaker 6: you know, maybe a little bit of positive aggression here. 457 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 6: But the team I'm really looking at is the third 458 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 6: unluckiest team. That's the Chicago Bears. Dub Bears went one 459 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,399 Speaker 6: and seven in one possession games. If you think about 460 00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,440 Speaker 6: was it the Eagles went seven and one in one 461 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 6: possession games. The Bears were the exact opposite of that, 462 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 6: going one in seven. 463 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,680 Speaker 3: So it's one of those things. 464 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,960 Speaker 6: Where you know, they had a lot of bad luck, 465 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,440 Speaker 6: a lot of close games that just didn't break their way. 466 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 6: And obviously in the off season they've got a lot 467 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,440 Speaker 6: of good things going for them as well. Made some 468 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,680 Speaker 6: good moves in the off season, and you know, justin 469 00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 6: field should continue to develop. So I think there's a 470 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 6: lot of promise in this Bears team to have a 471 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 6: very strong year. 472 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:31,919 Speaker 1: So Simon and Matt Mitchell, you guys can appreciate this. 473 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 1: As we were on vacation between getting tattoos and going 474 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:45,120 Speaker 1: to strip clubs, my younger kid read a tweet or 475 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 1: something to me about how good Justin Fields was looking 476 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 1: according to some report, And it was the first time 477 00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:58,439 Speaker 1: since the end of the season, and I've been giddy 478 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 1: where I was like, oh fuck, the Bears are going 479 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:05,639 Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl and now it's confirmed. 480 00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 4: Well shocked unit coming right away and say, did you 481 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 4: know that Fields was the eighty fourth ranked player the 482 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,159 Speaker 4: top one hundred in the NFL. I can't believe his 483 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,439 Speaker 4: peers already think he's a top one hundred player. 484 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 1: Soon. Oh you know what it was? It was? It 485 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:20,560 Speaker 1: was Nick Bosa. This is what it was. It was 486 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,960 Speaker 1: Nick Bosa. Yes, said that Justin Field maybe the best 487 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 1: athlete a quarterback he's ever seen. 488 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:27,440 Speaker 2: Yeah. 489 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 4: Well, my favorite thing was he said he's a top 490 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:34,360 Speaker 4: five quarterback in NFL history at running the football. Yes, 491 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:36,879 Speaker 4: as he left Jalen Hurts off his list, who had 492 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,399 Speaker 4: three rushing touchdowns in the Super Bowl. I don't know 493 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,919 Speaker 4: if he knows that's a record that'll probably never be broken. 494 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:47,320 Speaker 4: So very on brand for Fields, but yeah, just I 495 00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 4: can't get any more hype chat, I can't bet any 496 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,360 Speaker 4: more money in the Bears. I'm done bet any more 497 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 4: money on the Bears. But we are, like people know, 498 00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,000 Speaker 4: we're all in on Bears one hundred and one eighty 499 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 4: to one. They are just the hype is just next 500 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 4: level right now for this Bear's team. 501 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,919 Speaker 1: All right, Sean. Based the first season of the luck 502 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 1: rankings were revelatory. So based on based on the first season, 503 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 1: what were the biggest takeaways? What lessons did we all learn? 504 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:17,679 Speaker 5: I mean, the main takeaway should just be that the 505 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,360 Speaker 5: concept of handicapping games based on previous luck is very 506 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,879 Speaker 5: predictive in terms of beating the market. And it just 507 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,399 Speaker 5: makes a ton of sense because we're all, you know, 508 00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:30,679 Speaker 5: trying to filter out factors that can lead to more 509 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:34,760 Speaker 5: or less wins that aren't skill based or stable. So 510 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,920 Speaker 5: we're able to find those teams that are truly undervalued 511 00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 5: or truly overvalued. And you know, over the course of 512 00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 5: the season, the lock rankings went thirty nine and twenty 513 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 5: six against the spread, so sixty percent whenever we were 514 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:53,480 Speaker 5: showing a luck camp of sixteen or greater. So games 515 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:57,359 Speaker 5: where there was a huge margin in luck rankings and 516 00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,080 Speaker 5: based on a lot of the back testing that Nick 517 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 5: has done this offseason, and it seems like just blindly 518 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 5: follow them will give you roughly a baseline of fifty 519 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:06,959 Speaker 5: five percent win rate. But the more you kind of 520 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 5: stretch it out and look for matchups with bigger discrepancies 521 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 5: and luck or using other factors, you can really ramp 522 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,200 Speaker 5: up your winning percentage. So I think just the main 523 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 5: takeaway is just using these as a core foundation part 524 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,000 Speaker 5: of your handicapping makes a ton of sense. 525 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 1: This to me feels like one of those holy grail 526 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:30,159 Speaker 1: stats that should be as big over the course of 527 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 1: time as QBR or DVOA or anything else like that, 528 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:39,800 Speaker 1: Like people should be talking about these when making any 529 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:43,800 Speaker 1: decision about the quality of handicapping a game because of 530 00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:45,879 Speaker 1: what you just said. Let me repeat these two things. 531 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 1: Sean said that fifty five percent against the spread is 532 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 1: the floor when you use this as a big part 533 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:59,600 Speaker 1: of handicapping and including other factors to improve win rate. 534 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,040 Speaker 1: But at thirty nine and twenty six at a level 535 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:09,119 Speaker 1: of sixteen, when the delta between the two teams was 536 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:16,000 Speaker 1: at least sixteen, that's massive, Like it's almost to me, 537 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,680 Speaker 1: it's almost like I'm just using the luck rankings. Here's 538 00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:24,720 Speaker 1: my question, at what point do we feel most comfortable 539 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 1: that we have enough information for the luck rankings to 540 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 1: be legitimate. 541 00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 6: Well, you know, I've back tested it over several years, 542 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,840 Speaker 6: and we're at a multi hundred game sample size of 543 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:42,040 Speaker 6: sixteen or more luck ranking difference, and overall over that 544 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 6: that that I think it's five year sample. It's hitting 545 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,639 Speaker 6: at a fifty seven and a half percent rate for 546 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:52,440 Speaker 6: sixteen plush. So that is a nice large sample size, 547 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 6: I would say, And Sean mentioned that fifty five percent floor. Well, 548 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 6: if we go to a gap. Let's say, you know, 549 00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,560 Speaker 6: there's thirty two teams in the NFL, so sixteen is half. Well, 550 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 6: if we go half of that eight and then half 551 00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:07,440 Speaker 6: of that four. If we just take the four largest 552 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,440 Speaker 6: luck differentials, so thirty one, thirty, twenty nine, and twenty eight, 553 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,640 Speaker 6: that hits it over seventy percent over a past five 554 00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:18,800 Speaker 6: year span. So you know, like Sean said, fifty five 555 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:20,960 Speaker 6: percents of the floor. But we can find splits. We 556 00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:25,160 Speaker 6: can also find luck gaps of smaller eight to fifteen 557 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,680 Speaker 6: let's say, where especially early in the season, if one 558 00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,080 Speaker 6: team is really unlucky and the other team is really lucky, 559 00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:32,879 Speaker 6: and they face each other. Even if their gap is 560 00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,240 Speaker 6: much smaller in terms of raw ranking difference, the luck 561 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,520 Speaker 6: percentage difference is high enough that also hits it a 562 00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:41,800 Speaker 6: sixty plus percent, right, so we don't just have to 563 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:45,040 Speaker 6: look at sixteen plus. So we've got tons of data 564 00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 6: that shows that this is a real thing. And the 565 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 6: best part is the books don't know what our metric is, 566 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 6: so they can't, you know, engineer it for us. So 567 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,760 Speaker 6: it's just the thing that we're going to have an edge. 568 00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,720 Speaker 6: The biggest edges will come early in the season, very much. 569 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,479 Speaker 6: Pay attentional week weeks two, three, and four, because then 570 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 6: everybody gets more data and the luck tends to balance 571 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,680 Speaker 6: out and that everything kind of tends to regress toward. 572 00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,800 Speaker 3: The means, so it becomes harder. But we still find gaps. 573 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,840 Speaker 6: Throughout the years, so make sure you're paying attention all year, 574 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:16,920 Speaker 6: but especially jump on them early in the season. 575 00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,080 Speaker 4: Things are changing very quick especially I talked to a 576 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,600 Speaker 4: lot of guys betting, a lot of bookmakers as well, 577 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,680 Speaker 4: that the new AI wave of these guys trying to 578 00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:28,480 Speaker 4: counteract our models, it's a real thing, like they're trying 579 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 4: to get the smartest people that get in there and 580 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:31,720 Speaker 4: try to go against our models and trying to figure 581 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:33,800 Speaker 4: out patterns. Right, that's what they're looking for. That's how 582 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 4: they band people, right, They're looking for patterns, patterns and betting. 583 00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:39,360 Speaker 4: To me, this is something great tool because it's gonna 584 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 4: be hard for them to build an af counter of this, right, 585 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:43,400 Speaker 4: because the main point of this is Behy and Loan 586 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:44,880 Speaker 4: selling high on a lot of these teams. 587 00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 1: Well, question about luck rankings, and then I want to 588 00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:49,160 Speaker 1: play a game that we used to play with you 589 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,400 Speaker 1: guys all the time before this past NFL season. How 590 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:57,080 Speaker 1: will luck rankings improve heading into luck two point zero? 591 00:29:57,240 --> 00:29:59,960 Speaker 1: And how can everyone find these and take advantage of these? 592 00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,600 Speaker 6: So I think the biggest thing for me is if 593 00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:06,080 Speaker 6: you look at luck one point oh, we were showing 594 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,720 Speaker 6: all the high winning teams up the top of the board, 595 00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:10,760 Speaker 6: even the San Francisco forty nine ers. We were showing 596 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 6: it in the top ten I think in luck. But 597 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:14,880 Speaker 6: so what I realized is there was a little bit 598 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:18,360 Speaker 6: of an underfit on you know, an exponent I was 599 00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,040 Speaker 6: using in a formula. So corrected that, but also I 600 00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:26,720 Speaker 6: improved the expected score metric itself. So just another component 601 00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:30,160 Speaker 6: of skill that's being taken into account that isn't luck. 602 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,280 Speaker 6: That'll help us tighten that fit around the actual score 603 00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:36,400 Speaker 6: versus the expected score. You know, So what the score 604 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:38,480 Speaker 6: should have been in a game if luck wasn't involved, 605 00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:40,960 Speaker 6: versus what the score actually was. So I've made that 606 00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,960 Speaker 6: what should the score have been a much more accurate version. 607 00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:49,120 Speaker 6: It basically is incorporating team skill a little bit more 608 00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:50,800 Speaker 6: than it used to be, because I think we were 609 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,160 Speaker 6: underrating skill just a little bit. And even then we 610 00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,280 Speaker 6: were still hitting at a fifty five plus percent rate. 611 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,360 Speaker 6: So I think it's just going to be an even 612 00:30:57,360 --> 00:30:58,040 Speaker 6: better fit now. 613 00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,200 Speaker 1: All right, listen, Luck rankings are the best go to 614 00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,920 Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com. Find the Luck rankings, Well, kick them 615 00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 1: off week one. Are we going to have them week one? 616 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:11,840 Speaker 5: I mean they would just be from last year? 617 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:13,880 Speaker 1: Still, are we gonna have the job? 618 00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:15,000 Speaker 2: Yeah? 619 00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,320 Speaker 1: Absolutely, all right, we'll have them up before week one. 620 00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,760 Speaker 1: Last seasons, we'll have the new ones up after week one. 621 00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:23,760 Speaker 1: Honest to god, They're as good a tool as you're 622 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:25,520 Speaker 1: gonna find. We're gonna talk about them all season long, 623 00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:29,320 Speaker 1: and the favorites you guys have heard of, talk about 624 00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:33,560 Speaker 1: game time all off season, all regular season. We talk 625 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,960 Speaker 1: about it constantly, the fastest growing ticketing app in the 626 00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 1: United States. I love game Time, honestly, I use it 627 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,040 Speaker 1: all the time, no joke. You heard me talk about 628 00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:43,920 Speaker 1: being in Seattle. You heard me talking about going to 629 00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:46,520 Speaker 1: the Mariners game. Where do you think I got the tickets? 630 00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 1: I went to the game Time app. I bought tickets 631 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:51,960 Speaker 1: behind a home plate around twenty rows up for me, 632 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:56,960 Speaker 1: my mom, my kid, forty bucks apiece. My mom and 633 00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 1: my kid thought I was the biggest baller in the 634 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,840 Speaker 1: world because I got such good seats. If you're looking 635 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,280 Speaker 1: to get out to a pro college game this week, 636 00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 1: or even a concert, game Time has amazing last minute 637 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 1: deals on tickets to all of these. Just for fun, 638 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:13,360 Speaker 1: I'm going to open the game Time app right now. 639 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:16,239 Speaker 1: From my office here in New York City, I can 640 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:19,000 Speaker 1: see the New York Liberty first place in the Eastern 641 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,959 Speaker 1: Conference in the WNBA sixteen bucks get in price. No 642 00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,920 Speaker 1: matter where you live, download the game Time app, get 643 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,240 Speaker 1: out have some fun this week. You deserve it, and 644 00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:32,320 Speaker 1: you can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your 645 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:35,680 Speaker 1: first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the app and 646 00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:39,200 Speaker 1: enter code favorites. For twenty dollars off download game time today, 647 00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,040 Speaker 1: last minute tickets loss price guaranteed. No joke, people, I 648 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:45,320 Speaker 1: use it all the time, all right, Nick and Sean. 649 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 1: Before last football season, we used to have you guys 650 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 1: come on and use your incredible predictive analytics skills to 651 00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:57,040 Speaker 1: answer reader questions about what are the odds that certain 652 00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:00,200 Speaker 1: things would happen? Random coincidences that you guys could take 653 00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:03,680 Speaker 1: the magic out of and boil down into something completely scientific. 654 00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:08,040 Speaker 1: So one hundred and twenty three years ago, this week 655 00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:13,320 Speaker 1: July of nineteen hundred, King Umberto, the First of Italy 656 00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:17,920 Speaker 1: was dining at a restaurant when the restaurant's owner greeted him. 657 00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:21,440 Speaker 1: Both men written for a shock, they looked exactly alike. 658 00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:26,040 Speaker 1: The coincidences didn't stop there. The restaurant owner's name was 659 00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:29,800 Speaker 1: also Umberto. He had also been born in the same 660 00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:33,560 Speaker 1: Italian town on the same day. Both Umberto's married on 661 00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:37,840 Speaker 1: the same day to women named Margarita. Both had sons 662 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:42,560 Speaker 1: named Vittorio, and Umberto's restaurant opened on the day of 663 00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:46,479 Speaker 1: King Umberto's coronation. The king was scheduled to repair at 664 00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:49,520 Speaker 1: an event the next day and was struck by this 665 00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:54,520 Speaker 1: remarkable encounter, so he invited the look alike to the show. Unbelievably, 666 00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:58,680 Speaker 1: the look alike, Alberto was shot to death the next morning. 667 00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:03,080 Speaker 1: Incredibly shortly after hearing the news of his lookalikes death, 668 00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:10,320 Speaker 1: King Umberto was assassinated by an Italian anarchist. Theories abound 669 00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,719 Speaker 1: about the two men. Were they long lost twins? What 670 00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:17,040 Speaker 1: are the odds, Nick Giffon and Sean Kerner if. 671 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 5: We're trying to figure out if they're long lost twins? 672 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:23,319 Speaker 5: The most important piece of that puzzle is they were 673 00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:26,040 Speaker 5: born in the same Italian town on the same day, 674 00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:29,759 Speaker 5: and all the other wacky shit seems pretty relevant and 675 00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:33,600 Speaker 5: just largely it's a coincidence, like it doesn't matter. So 676 00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:38,320 Speaker 5: based on their hometown of Turin, I was able to 677 00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,719 Speaker 5: estimate the population is probably around one hundred and thirty 678 00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:44,400 Speaker 5: thousand when they were born. Nick factored in you know, 679 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:48,000 Speaker 5: the average birth rate, the chances of having identical twins, 680 00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:50,560 Speaker 5: and came up with the baseline of about six percent 681 00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:53,960 Speaker 5: chance that they were twins based on those odds. But 682 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:55,759 Speaker 5: I felt like this is something where there was a 683 00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:59,120 Speaker 5: ton of underlying chop, given that they actually looked alike 684 00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:01,600 Speaker 5: and For the those that don't remember, we refer to 685 00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:04,560 Speaker 5: underlying chop based on our what are the Odds pod 686 00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,279 Speaker 5: about running into Rick Flair at a restaurant called the 687 00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:10,840 Speaker 5: Chop House. It was presented as some wacky coincidence, but 688 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,640 Speaker 5: we said, actually, Rick Flair is more likely to end 689 00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,040 Speaker 5: up at a restaurant named after one of his patented 690 00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:19,040 Speaker 5: wrestling moves, so it actually increased the odds overall. So 691 00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:21,160 Speaker 5: I think in this case, the fact that they looked 692 00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:24,520 Speaker 5: alike was a ton of underlying chop, which I think 693 00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:28,319 Speaker 5: only increased the odds that they were twins. But Nick 694 00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:32,399 Speaker 5: had to introduce some conspiracies into the equation, so I'll 695 00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:33,680 Speaker 5: let him go over those. 696 00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:39,240 Speaker 6: Yeah, So you know, there could be some negative chop 697 00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,000 Speaker 6: here as well, like this story could just be made up, right, 698 00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:47,920 Speaker 6: Like this is this story even real? Also, these guys 699 00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:51,120 Speaker 6: are you know older now? I think it's nineteen hundred 700 00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:53,319 Speaker 6: and they were born in eighteen forty four. And you 701 00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:55,840 Speaker 6: would think you would know if you look exactly like 702 00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,680 Speaker 6: your king? Why didn't this come up sooner? You should 703 00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,440 Speaker 6: know what your king looks like are How are you 704 00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:04,719 Speaker 6: all of a sudden taken aback by looking exactly like 705 00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:07,560 Speaker 6: the King. You've never seen a picture of him before, 706 00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:10,759 Speaker 6: You've never seen him. I guess, I don't know. It 707 00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:12,640 Speaker 6: just seems shocking to me that you wouldn't know what 708 00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:14,759 Speaker 6: your king looks like, and all of a sudden you'd 709 00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:18,000 Speaker 6: be shocked fifty six years later in your life to 710 00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:19,759 Speaker 6: realize you look like him. 711 00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:21,000 Speaker 3: You know. 712 00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:25,560 Speaker 6: I guess One other thing for me is Umberto and 713 00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:31,560 Speaker 6: maybe Umberto's father. He had eight kids with his wife 714 00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:34,440 Speaker 6: and then several other kids with some mistresses. They were 715 00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:39,600 Speaker 6: all documented written about Why was this potential Umberto kid, 716 00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:43,759 Speaker 6: you know, the restaurant owner not documented? And there could 717 00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,240 Speaker 6: be good reasons, not honestly, there could be valid reasons, 718 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:50,000 Speaker 6: but I found some of these as like negative chop reasons, 719 00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:52,400 Speaker 6: like reasons to not believe the story a bit. So 720 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:54,960 Speaker 6: you know, Sean said, we got about a baseline of 721 00:36:55,000 --> 00:37:00,680 Speaker 6: six percent. And let's just be clear, there is if 722 00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:02,840 Speaker 6: I knew nothing about you, Chad, there would be a 723 00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:04,560 Speaker 6: one and two hundred fifty chance you would have an 724 00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:05,319 Speaker 6: identical twin. 725 00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,080 Speaker 3: Now we know that's not the case because you know. 726 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:10,680 Speaker 4: I don't know, have you ever seen Matt Watson from Carwall? 727 00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:13,719 Speaker 4: Look about Chad Carwole, Matt Watson, you look just like 728 00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 4: this guy, but. 729 00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:18,080 Speaker 1: Because you can only handle one a meat, that's true, 730 00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:19,200 Speaker 1: that's very true. 731 00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,480 Speaker 6: But because we have like documentation and stuff, we know 732 00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,920 Speaker 6: if people do or don't. But if there was if 733 00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:27,439 Speaker 6: every kid was just separated at birth from their mother 734 00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:29,600 Speaker 6: and we had no way of knowing, there would be 735 00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:30,960 Speaker 6: a one and tw hundred and fifty chance. So that's 736 00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:33,120 Speaker 6: like the floor whether this story is true or not, 737 00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,600 Speaker 6: and we don't know or not. That's the absolute floor 738 00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:38,319 Speaker 6: is one and two hundred and fifty chance. We came 739 00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:40,960 Speaker 6: up to about, like I said, six percent, As Sean mentioned, 740 00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:44,200 Speaker 6: I said, if there are twins in turn, there was 741 00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:46,160 Speaker 6: a six percent chance of that happening. I said, if 742 00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:49,400 Speaker 6: there are twins in turn, there's a very high likelihood 743 00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:51,480 Speaker 6: those two are twins. So we'll keep that close to 744 00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:53,120 Speaker 6: six percent. But I said, there's about a twenty five 745 00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:55,480 Speaker 6: percent chance the story is just made up in punk. 746 00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,680 Speaker 5: Yeah, so we so we arrived at six percent, which 747 00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:03,239 Speaker 5: is right around fifteen to one odds, which happens to 748 00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:05,759 Speaker 5: be the same odds of the Dallas Cowboys winning the 749 00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:08,560 Speaker 5: Super Bowl. So if Dallas does end up winning it 750 00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:11,520 Speaker 5: this year, I'm taking as a sign that the Umbertos 751 00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:14,040 Speaker 5: are telling us that they were actually long lost wins. 752 00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:17,640 Speaker 1: Well, listen, I can't thank you guys enough for coming on, 753 00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:25,920 Speaker 1: ruining the magic of the Umberto the Emberto brothers once again, 754 00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:30,560 Speaker 1: finding a way to have science just shine a light 755 00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:35,280 Speaker 1: on some of our greatest coincidental stories. Also, I'm thrilled 756 00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:37,120 Speaker 1: you guys came on to talk about the luck rankings 757 00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:39,799 Speaker 1: highlighted teams that we should be paying attention to. I 758 00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:42,440 Speaker 1: don't want to pay attention to the Saints. I'm comfortable 759 00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:45,160 Speaker 1: with the Texans. I'm over the moon about the Bears. 760 00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:48,479 Speaker 1: I'm fading everybody in the NFC East. I can't wait. 761 00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:53,440 Speaker 1: Nick Giffen, Sean Kerner predictive analytics experts here for action. 762 00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:57,040 Speaker 1: You can catch them all season long. Reminder, we are 763 00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:01,160 Speaker 1: a football pod from here until the end of the 764 00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:05,960 Speaker 1: Super Bowl Tuesdays and Thursdays, every week Sundays. Once the 765 00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:11,160 Speaker 1: season starts, we got Dough Barnwell next on Thursday. We 766 00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:15,719 Speaker 1: got division breakdowns starting on Tuesday. The Favorites Podcast is 767 00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:18,280 Speaker 1: proudly presented by BET three six five, the world's favorite 768 00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:21,640 Speaker 1: sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code Action to get 769 00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:25,479 Speaker 1: bet three six fives exclusive sign up offer. Bet one 770 00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:28,120 Speaker 1: dollar on any game and get two hundred dollars in bonus. 771 00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:31,960 Speaker 1: Bets must be twenty one or older. Offer available in Colorado, 772 00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:36,439 Speaker 1: on New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa. Gambling problem call 773 00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:41,759 Speaker 1: or text one eight hundred gambler for Simon Hunter. I 774 00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:45,480 Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. This has been the Favorites podcast presented 775 00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:48,120 Speaker 1: by Bet three six five part of the Action Network. 776 00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:51,120 Speaker 1: Download from Apple, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast, 777 00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:53,680 Speaker 1: rate review, subscribe lotus five stars, say whatever you want. 778 00:39:54,360 --> 00:40:04,360 Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift until next time. W Action Network 779 00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:08,520 Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you 780 00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:11,760 Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty 781 00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:13,960 Speaker 1: four seven at one eight hundred gambler