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Speaker 2: We are honored at this moment of a view of
Speaker 2: the American labor economy. You've speak to Claudia Sam with
Speaker 2: all of our affiliations with Michigan, whether the definitive de
Speaker 2: Sam rule, We're thrilled she could join us today. From
Speaker 2: New Century Advisors, I'm looking at this report. First of all,
Speaker 2: mister Myron looks pretty good here on his path to
Speaker 2: six rate cuts. Very simply, the revision is a negative
Speaker 2: seventy six thousand. That is a negative twenty six thousand
Speaker 2: combined statistic the three months moving average. Thank you Scott
Speaker 2: and in our team Vince gollin Off for this the
Speaker 2: three months moving average change. Paul, look at that negative
Speaker 2: twenty two thousand exactly.
Speaker 3: Claudia saw, I'm here joining us still chief economist and
Speaker 3: New Century Advisors.
Speaker 4: Quick read from you, Claudia on some of.
Speaker 3: These numbers, I mean, I don't know the unemployment rate
Speaker 3: tick down to four point four percent.
Speaker 5: Yeah, no, that is very encouraging.
Speaker 6: I mean, we've seen the unemployment rate moving up since
Speaker 6: the middle of the year. There were some reasons to
Speaker 6: think that maybe the November number, the four point six percent,
Speaker 6: was somewhat elevated with the government shutdown ending, and so
Speaker 6: it is reassuring to see some of that come back off.
Speaker 5: But it has risen over the course of the year.
Speaker 5: That is problematic.
Speaker 6: And then you know, you do point to these payroll
Speaker 6: numbers are really weak, and next month we're going to
Speaker 6: get the annual revisions in which we know is going
Speaker 6: to take a good chunk out of over the last year.
Speaker 6: So we do have this very slow job creation unemployment
Speaker 6: rates rising. It's not it is very reassuring to see
Speaker 6: this steady march and the unemployment rate kind of take
Speaker 6: a little bit of edge off. But you know, we're
Speaker 6: not all clear here. This is not this is a
Speaker 6: very confusing and risky, potentially risky picture.
Speaker 7: Doctor. Someone just right where I wanted to go. We're
Speaker 7: at Jackson Hole.
Speaker 2: She and I are looking out over, you know, through
Speaker 2: the big window in the mountains in the backcheon and
Speaker 2: she's so delicate. She says, hey, stupid, it's about the
Speaker 2: revision report in February, Claudia Simon, I mean, with futures
Speaker 2: of fifteen year folks, a nice lift to the market.
Speaker 7: Claudia Sam this revision coming up.
Speaker 2: You and Anna Wong have really really emphasized what do
Speaker 2: you glean from the new BLS about what that big
Speaker 2: revision in thirty days is going to tell us?
Speaker 6: Right? Well, I think you know we've I mean, there's
Speaker 6: going to be a large downward revision in the prior year.
Speaker 6: So we've had, you know, we just haven't had a
Speaker 6: lot of job creation. Now the again, the unemployed rate
Speaker 6: has been rising, not dramatically, so there has been in
Speaker 6: the payrolls. There has been kind of a slowing supply
Speaker 6: of labor and a slowing demand of labor. The slowing
Speaker 6: demand is winning out. The unemployer rate is coming up.
Speaker 5: But the big sure looks much more ominous.
Speaker 6: If you only look at payrolls, And maybe it doesn't
Speaker 6: look ominous enough if we only look at the unplayer rate.
Speaker 6: Like you got to kind of put all the pieces together,
Speaker 6: but it's it's certainly a concern and a risk, and
Speaker 6: this is exactly what the FED was responding to. I mean,
Speaker 6: they cut rate seventy five basis points last year with
Speaker 6: inflation outivated on concerns about where So this is also
Speaker 6: validating I think FED as a hole, like they are
Speaker 6: moving on concerns about the labor market and it's we
Speaker 6: are seeing it in the data.
Speaker 2: Okay, but Governor Sam see how I'm like, I'm running
Speaker 2: the next job for governor some If you look at
Speaker 2: the three rate cuts in all, it's a nonlinear function.
Speaker 2: I mean, when does a twenty five beat rate cut
Speaker 2: kick in to advance that demand for jobs to get
Speaker 2: job formation going again?
Speaker 7: Right?
Speaker 6: Well, I think this is where the FED really took
Speaker 6: the view of front loading these cuts on concerns about
Speaker 6: where the labor market might go that do that really
Speaker 6: raises the bar for them to do more cuts in January.
Speaker 6: It's kind of like they took an effort there and
Speaker 6: takes time for that to work its way through the economy.
Speaker 5: They're looking out at seeing some fiscal policy.
Speaker 6: That should come online that should be somewhat supportive early
Speaker 6: in this year, Like we have the ingredients here to
Speaker 6: stabilize labor market, get hiring, you know, back on track.
Speaker 6: But we don't really have many signs of that happening yet,
Speaker 6: but the Fed has kind of done their work, and
Speaker 6: I think they're going to want to see.
Speaker 5: How this plays out, you know, keeping a care fly
Speaker 5: on it.
Speaker 6: But the fact that we saw the unemployment rate take
Speaker 6: down that gives them some breathing room.
Speaker 2: We continue with Claudia's futures advance up fourteen fifteen, now
Speaker 2: up twenty one, a bid into the market and down
Speaker 2: features up one point thirty. Oh and I don't have
Speaker 2: a fifty thousand on futures print right now in now,
Speaker 2: but it's remarkable where they're The vix comes in constructively
Speaker 2: fifteen point twenty three.
Speaker 7: The Sweeny yield was shock the unched here.
Speaker 2: I wonder if that's a typo on the Bloomberg but
Speaker 2: a little bit higher yield structure. I noticed dollar strength
Speaker 2: as well. Oil on Venezuela really not doing much today.
Speaker 2: Gold you're kidding me, Paul, up thirty six dollars and
Speaker 2: you're forty five hundred ounce Sweeney with car with Claudia.
Speaker 4: Sam Claudia. Let's look at the wage side here.
Speaker 3: Average hourly earnings on a year on year basis up
Speaker 3: three point eight percent. That's consensus. That's pretty solid. Consensus
Speaker 3: was three point six. The revised last period was up
Speaker 3: a little bit to three point six. So three point
Speaker 3: eight percent earnings growth? What do you make of that?
Speaker 6: So, I mean that is a I mean that's a
Speaker 6: bump up on Yes, that's above expectations. I think it'll
Speaker 6: be you know, always kind of concerned about one month
Speaker 6: and looking at composition, but you know that we've seen
Speaker 6: big picture, We've seen moderation and wage growth, but it
Speaker 6: has been very gradual right over time. So that does
Speaker 6: you know, fit within the you know, wage grows still
Speaker 6: and this is still elevated, which does fit with I
Speaker 6: mean productivity is higher too, So I don't think this
Speaker 6: is a number that would necessarily cause concern about you know,
Speaker 6: spillovers to inflation, but it is, you know, something to
Speaker 6: keep an eye on.
Speaker 2: So what I mean, you've alluded to this, But to you,
Speaker 2: is the January meeting now a big We got CPI,
Speaker 2: but it's January meeting now a bigger deal? Or is
Speaker 2: Claudia sam out to March and beyond?
Speaker 5: Well, every every meeting is a live meeting.
Speaker 6: But I to me this they really put effort into
Speaker 6: getting the rate cuts done last year, putting together even
Speaker 6: though there were questions, abou.
Speaker 5: Should we way for more data? Is it really necessary?
Speaker 6: I think this front loading, which is a smart thing
Speaker 6: because the policy takes a while to take effect, so
Speaker 6: I think to get that done, there's probably going to
Speaker 6: be a we want to, you know, really assess the situation.
Speaker 6: So I don't I don't see them having their urgency
Speaker 6: with January, particularly with this report.
Speaker 5: Today.
Speaker 2: Claudia sam with us and we continue commercial free in
Speaker 2: this hour. Michael McGee coming up. Christina CAMMANI comes in
Speaker 2: the studio and drops everything. She dropped Lisa's breakfast. I
Speaker 2: mean we'll get to her in a moment.
Speaker 7: With Invesco as well. We're going to continue with doctor
Speaker 7: some Paul. We continue with the bid moving up, futures
Speaker 7: up twenty.
Speaker 4: Four, absolutely laudy.
Speaker 3: We're gonna get some inflation data coming up soon here
Speaker 3: just on the other mandate for this FED kind of
Speaker 3: what are you looking for there?
Speaker 6: Yeah, we had the last inflation reading we have with
Speaker 6: the CPI was very distorted by all the disruptions from
Speaker 6: missing a month of data basically with inflation. So I
Speaker 6: think next week is just seeing how much of those
Speaker 6: distortions shake their way out and to get a little
Speaker 6: bit cleaner read on inflation.
Speaker 5: I think today with employment, we.
Speaker 6: Probably shook out a lot of any of the distortions
Speaker 6: from the government shutdown on the employment data. I don't
Speaker 6: think we're going to get fully back to normal in
Speaker 6: terms of CPI with next week's report, but I think
Speaker 6: that's just getting something back to a more normal reading,
Speaker 6: which you know is inflation is still elevated, and then
Speaker 6: trying to peace out. Are there any signs, like real signs,
Speaker 6: not some measurement quirk, but real signs of inflation turning
Speaker 6: the corner and really making you know, pointing towards two percent.
Speaker 6: I think, you know, we're not going to get any
Speaker 6: like super clarity on Monday, but hopefully we'll clear out
Speaker 6: some of the distortions.
Speaker 2: Oh, I just moved it ahead. The tweets are coming out.
Speaker 2: I mean, everybody's working on Twitter and LinkedIn now to
Speaker 2: get an immediate message in vesco does that is well?
Speaker 2: CLAUDIUSA just you know, is the analysis comes out here,
Speaker 2: What is the efficacy of taking a three month moving
Speaker 2: average or taking three months of shut down and non
Speaker 2: shut down data and annualizing that.
Speaker 7: Is that a good University of Michigan experiment.
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, I have to say, I mean, you know,
Speaker 6: with my recession indicator, I need a three month average
Speaker 6: at the unemployment rate. I can't even take the app
Speaker 6: like October doesn't exist, right, So I mean we're in
Speaker 6: a moment and we've had more distortions in the data.
Speaker 5: So just and it's a moment.
Speaker 6: Where you take these averages because you're trying to smooth
Speaker 6: out just some of the noise that comes from trying
Speaker 6: to measure a thirty trillion dollar economy. And you know,
Speaker 6: we're just it's been hard to even do that exercise.
Speaker 6: So I continue to you know, that is the way
Speaker 6: to think about this, Like you want to smooth out
Speaker 6: and you also want to step back and look at
Speaker 6: trends not just over three months. Like to me, the
Speaker 6: fact that we've had an unemployment rate rising gradually over
Speaker 6: two and a half years by a percentage point, I mean,
Speaker 6: like you got to like look at the big picture too.
Speaker 2: Claudia, thank you so much, just really really really valuable.
Speaker 2: Her labor share of the economy is jaw dropping. I
Speaker 2: can't say enough about it. I'll effort that chart out
Speaker 2: on Twitter and LinkedIn stealing it from doctor Some. She's
Speaker 2: chief economist New Century Advisors.
Speaker 7: Stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 3: Christina camp Many Joints is here, Senior portfolio Manager, Global
Speaker 3: Debt at Invesco. Here, Christina, you see a labor number
Speaker 3: here today that if you just look at the you know,
Speaker 3: the headline unemployment rate, it seems like the labor market's okay.
Speaker 3: Does that lend you to believe that the FED may
Speaker 3: wait a little bit, give them some confidence to wait
Speaker 3: a little bit?
Speaker 8: I think, morning, and thank you again for having me.
Speaker 8: And I dropped all my thanks because I was so
Speaker 8: excited to log into the terminal.
Speaker 4: And see what the data was.
Speaker 8: You could come back, but I think I think we
Speaker 8: may be back to a FED sitting on their hands
Speaker 8: mode and trying to decipher through the data. And again
Speaker 8: we're still like, these are all noisy numbers. You're like, oh,
Speaker 8: great headlines fifty. Well, revisions is minus seventy six, but
Speaker 8: the unemployment rates better, and I think the FED will
Speaker 8: probably be most focused and comforted by the unemployment rate.
Speaker 8: And the market's not really pricing much for the FED
Speaker 8: really until we get the new chair in June, so
Speaker 8: I think that that kind of remains our base case
Speaker 8: for the FED.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 3: So twenty twenty five for the bond investors a really
Speaker 3: good year. The AD was up seven percent something along
Speaker 3: those lines. In twenty twenty six, Am I just clip
Speaker 3: clipping coupons? Is that how I should think about fixed income?
Speaker 8: Look, I think that there's still absolutely an opportunity in
Speaker 8: fixed income. I think the same pounding the table that
Speaker 8: we've had for the last year, that there is, especially
Speaker 8: in this environment, and opportunity for global fixed income when
Speaker 8: you take a step back, and that doesn't mean not
Speaker 8: the US, it means including the rest of the world,
Speaker 8: which I think investors typically do not do. But I
Speaker 8: think it's about I think curves should probably still steep in,
Speaker 8: but there's still some that gives you roll down opportunity,
Speaker 8: and there's value in the front end, and I think
Speaker 8: thinking about the long end of the market, we have
Speaker 8: to think about all these things back to the questions
Speaker 8: that we had at the beginning last year, what are
Speaker 8: the policy at the administration's policy objectives going into midterms?
Speaker 8: Like what are they trying to accomplish? And then what
Speaker 8: is the impacts on fundamentals? And I think there are
Speaker 8: so many moving pieces, but it's still about security and
Speaker 8: what's going on with like Trump seems to want cheaper
Speaker 8: oil and cheaper mortgage rates and those focuses, and then
Speaker 8: what do they mean to the market?
Speaker 2: Future's up twenty six right now, there's a bid to
Speaker 2: the market, Christina out passed. Where your own power controls things,
Speaker 2: or maybe mister Myron controls things.
Speaker 7: What does the spread.
Speaker 2: You find most efficacious? Don't give me the vanilla two
Speaker 2: ten when you walk in the morning and tune into
Speaker 2: one of your three Bloomberg terminals, which is the spread
Speaker 2: that matters to you?
Speaker 8: So lately we've been looking at two thirties and we
Speaker 8: laugh that in a lot of places, meaning across a
Speaker 8: lot of different markets, different regions, it's like the whole
Speaker 8: curve because we're in this dynamic that the front end
Speaker 8: offers value right in twos and the FED has done
Speaker 8: some work and seems to be kind of patient for now,
Speaker 8: but it feels like the bar or whatever forward FED
Speaker 8: that we have to hike is very very high, and
Speaker 8: depending on who we get with the next FED chair,
Speaker 8: the bar could be differing in terms of how quick
Speaker 8: we are to ease. So that's the front end, and
Speaker 8: then I think because of all of these fiscal dynamics
Speaker 8: we're talking about increasing the defense budget, spending and all
Speaker 8: of these things, the long end matters even more so,
Speaker 8: like we really are zoomed out and looking at the
Speaker 8: entire curve and looking at two thirty sometimes and again
Speaker 8: it'll shift depending on what's going on and what we've priced.
Speaker 3: But how do you think about in twenty twenty six
Speaker 3: is as you look ahead here US versus rest of
Speaker 3: the world, because boy, if you look at the stock
Speaker 3: market in twenty twenty five, as well as the US did,
Speaker 3: international markets did even better.
Speaker 4: Yeah, how do you think about it? In the fixtion
Speaker 4: come world.
Speaker 5: So again, we run global funds.
Speaker 8: So twenty twenty five is an exciting year for US
Speaker 8: that there's finally some ability to step back. And again
Speaker 8: it doesn't mean that the US is not investable in
Speaker 8: a great place to invest, but look at all these
Speaker 8: opportunities elsewhere, and I think that still is the story
Speaker 8: in the underlying thesis, right, Like there is growth in
Speaker 8: the US and there are positive dynamics here, but a
Speaker 8: strong US is good for the rest of the world too.
Speaker 8: And I think that there are opportunities in foreign exchange
Speaker 8: markets as a standalone. There are certainly across fixed income markets,
Speaker 8: and I think inequities again, like we're not equity managers
Speaker 8: our team, but I think that that global story is
Speaker 8: here to stay. And again, when you zoom out and
Speaker 8: you talk about dollar cycles or all these cycles, they're
Speaker 8: normally multi year, if not ten year cycles.
Speaker 2: Off the radar is continental Europe. Goldman Sachs publishes today's
Speaker 2: Spend Your Spend and their EU team that Germany's just
Speaker 2: simply better than people expect. We've heard that from German
Speaker 2: banks as well. Is there a hidden value in larger
Speaker 2: developed EU that I haven't talked about in what, Paul
Speaker 2: three years.
Speaker 5: So I'm not sure.
Speaker 8: Again, it's hard to get super excited about, just like
Speaker 8: European Union across the board different countries because of how
Speaker 8: tight things are. But I think your first point is
Speaker 8: right that people you had a lot of excitement in
Speaker 8: Q one on the German defense spending and all of that.
Speaker 8: But whether you talk to people, certainly in continental Europe
Speaker 8: but here too, I think there's a lot of negativity
Speaker 8: and people just don't believe that Europe can ever get
Speaker 8: out of its own way. And I think that there
Speaker 8: is more positive things happening there than is price or
Speaker 8: that people give credit to. I think so, I think so.
Speaker 8: I think we are at a point that you need
Speaker 8: to see some proof in the pudding. I think maybe
Speaker 8: equities has it more. I think the euro itself has
Speaker 8: different like there are different dynamics there and it's funding
Speaker 8: and it depends what goes on with central banks. But
Speaker 8: I think there is still opportunities there for sure.
Speaker 3: You know, I think in twenty twenty five I heard
Speaker 3: more discussion about emerging markets and happened many years for sure.
Speaker 4: Why is that and how do you guys think about it? Yeah, so.
Speaker 8: We have a team that has a deep, long history
Speaker 8: of investing in emerging markets, but again last year was
Speaker 8: certainly a time that it got broad interest. I think
Speaker 8: for us we think about em that it's you have
Speaker 8: to think of it, that it can't just be a
Speaker 8: consistent allocation blindly because it is super volatile, but there
Speaker 8: are opportunities there. I think the places that stand out
Speaker 8: in particular are Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Aruba.
Speaker 5: I don't know about Aruba, but you know.
Speaker 6: I heard.
Speaker 8: I heard we were supposed to go to Aruba hot
Speaker 8: for our first baby moon. I got canceled back on
Speaker 8: twenty sixteenth, so I've never looked, but I think those
Speaker 8: markets you have Steve curves high real yields, there are
Speaker 8: opportunities both in rates and in FX, and we are
Speaker 8: we are involved in those Christians and you.
Speaker 7: Thank you so much.
Speaker 2: I really really appreciate Senior portfolio manager and Vesco stay
Speaker 2: with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 7: He is Magnificent.
Speaker 2: The essay at High Frequency Economics is a yield based
Speaker 2: analysis of the economy. It is what Karl Weinberg did
Speaker 2: at Lehman Brothers for decades, and it was just thrilled
Speaker 2: that he could join us here this morning.
Speaker 7: Karl.
Speaker 2: I love your research note and that you say the
Speaker 2: labor market's going to hover, but GDP may be light.
Speaker 2: Link the two together into the first part of twenty
Speaker 2: twenty six.
Speaker 9: Hi, Tom, good morning. Thanks for having me back on
Speaker 9: the show. It's been a while.
Speaker 10: You know.
Speaker 7: We're at full employment.
Speaker 9: That's my assessment anyhow, others might not agree with that.
Speaker 9: But even at a four and a half percent unemployment rate,
Speaker 9: which I think, by the way, is going to go
Speaker 9: down in this morning's report, and we'll get a revision
Speaker 9: downward to the figure that we saw for in November.
Speaker 9: But when we're at full employment like this, all right,
Speaker 9: the economy has trouble growing. The only way it can
Speaker 9: grow is either by immigration or getting more people in
Speaker 9: the labor force, or by increasing productivity. So productivity was
Speaker 9: really strong in the third quarter. The economy grew well,
Speaker 9: but there's no promise that those productivity gains are going
Speaker 9: to continue into the fourth quarter. So GDP growth may
Speaker 9: be capped, if you will, by the economy being at
Speaker 9: full employment right now.
Speaker 2: I really I'm more focused folks on the SAGI GDP
Speaker 2: outlook of selected economists. Mister Myron wants six rate cuts
Speaker 2: one and a half percent, down, down down.
Speaker 7: Is that a Carl Weinberg theme.
Speaker 9: Absolutely not. I think Myron is wrong. I think he's
Speaker 9: abusing and misinterpreting the tailor rule and the estimates and
Speaker 9: the importance of our star within the tailor rule. Our
Speaker 9: star certainly has come down, but potential GDP has also
Speaker 9: come down, potential GDP growth. So when you put the
Speaker 9: two together, there's no recommendation from the tailor rule or
Speaker 9: anything that I know about economics for the Fed to
Speaker 9: continue to cut rates with the economy at full employment.
Speaker 2: This is Kerl Weinberg and Michael Faroli at JP Morgan
Speaker 2: this phrase potential GDP. None of these people within the
Speaker 2: Trump administration talk about. It's like they're blanked Carl.
Speaker 3: The focus obviously today will be on the labor market.
Speaker 3: But the other side of the Fed mandate is inflation.
Speaker 3: What's your inflation view. Are you concerned that we may
Speaker 3: see stick your inflation, that maybe the market's discounting.
Speaker 9: I'm concerned about more inflation as twenty twenty six progresses,
Speaker 9: because if the economy continues to grow, but it can't
Speaker 9: find the work to make it grow. Then we'll have
Speaker 9: too much income chasing too few goods, and that will
Speaker 9: put upward pressure on prices. Once again. To me, that's
Speaker 9: what the FED should be thinking about. To my clients,
Speaker 9: that's not what the FED is thinking about. But in
Speaker 9: my view, that's what the FED should be thinking about.
Speaker 3: So given that backdrop, how do you expect the FED
Speaker 3: to behave this year? Is it one cut, two cuts?
Speaker 3: Do they need to be more aggressive less aggressive?
Speaker 7: I don't know.
Speaker 9: I mean, that's really a big question we have. First
Speaker 9: of all, we have four new voters on the FOMC.
Speaker 9: We've lost both of the voters who dissented from previous
Speaker 9: rate cuts, and at least two of the new people
Speaker 9: coming on board may be more inclined to ease rather
Speaker 9: than to hold steady. Even as soon as the next
Speaker 9: meeting against that FED share, Powell still commands probably three
Speaker 9: votes on the FOMC out of the twelve. And that's
Speaker 9: the swing, if you will, between those who will ease
Speaker 9: and those will settle. So I don't really know where
Speaker 9: they're going to go on this, but what I'm hoping
Speaker 9: to see as we move through the year is a
Speaker 9: change in the perception that payrolls are slowing because the
Speaker 9: economy is weak. That's where the FED is right now
Speaker 9: to payrolls are slowing because the labor market is tight
Speaker 9: and there just aren't enough workers to hire to keep
Speaker 9: payrolls growing quickly.
Speaker 7: Carl, we got some time left here. I want to
Speaker 7: get you on much more in twenty twenty six. You
Speaker 7: should see.
Speaker 2: Where he lives.
Speaker 7: I mean, I took the Nash Rambler once.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I had to put you know, the chains on
Speaker 2: it in I'll enter to get up.
Speaker 7: Okay, it's up the toconomy. You know it's it's like
Speaker 7: God's country. Yes, sure, it's beautiful.
Speaker 2: Carl in your note And I got any ways to
Speaker 2: go your Carl, but I got to go to your
Speaker 2: legendary reputation on the Pacific rim and on crisis. Do
Speaker 2: you are your radar up in twenty twenty six for
Speaker 2: China or other currency or debt upsets.
Speaker 9: I'm upset for I'm on the alert for a lot
Speaker 9: of things coming from China this year that we've never
Speaker 9: seen before. If you read the IEA's Critical Critical Critical
Speaker 9: Minerals Outlook, I believe is the proper name of it. Okay,
Speaker 9: China sits at the root of every supply chain for
Speaker 9: every critical material for every Western economy, no exceptions to that.
Speaker 9: So all right, this is a weapon that G tested
Speaker 9: with rare earths last year that he's testing right now
Speaker 9: again with Japan. And G has things that he wants
Speaker 9: and I think he's going to asking for them with
Speaker 9: Lee Ridge. I think that's the risk for China in
Speaker 9: the new year.
Speaker 2: Carl, not enough time, Thank you so much, Carl Weinberg
Speaker 2: with this high frequency economics, just definitive research report.
Speaker 7: Stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple cor Play and
Speaker 1: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also
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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 7: The Newspapers with Lisa Matteo. Good morning.
Speaker 10: All right, I have a question for you, which do
Speaker 10: you think has the priceiest homes?
Speaker 4: We're talking Aspen versus Palm Beach. Okay, this is it.
Speaker 4: Do you go mountains or do you go, I'm going
Speaker 4: to Aspen in March. Okay, yeah, we get back from
Speaker 4: a room.
Speaker 7: You only go places that are letter.
Speaker 3: A yes exactly either of this year. And I'll tell
Speaker 3: you what we got. The quote from our guy and
Speaker 3: our group. He always gets the condo force noticeably higher
Speaker 3: than where we usually do, which we got to Park
Speaker 3: City in Vale and Tahoe noticeably more expensive, and Aspen
Speaker 3: this year.
Speaker 10: Okay, so lots of answer and answer. Okay, so here
Speaker 10: here's the reasoning behind us. So the Wall Street Journal
Speaker 10: kind of did this look into both. So Aspen the
Speaker 10: data shows thirty four deals above twenty million last year,
Speaker 10: up one hundred in sixty one percent from twenty twenty four.
Speaker 10: So if you compare the price, right, you look at
Speaker 10: the medium single family home price and Aspen about fourteen
Speaker 10: million during twenty twenty five, the third quarter.
Speaker 4: Nine million in Palm Beach.
Speaker 10: But then you have the tax factor too, right, Florida
Speaker 10: is the tax haven, so they have that advantage. Carlado
Speaker 10: has like a four point four percent state income tax.
Speaker 10: But then you have to take into consideration the insurance
Speaker 10: factor too, where Florida it's much higher, So you kind
Speaker 10: of have to weigh all these factors and figure out
Speaker 10: which is chosen for the plan.
Speaker 4: I'm I like the sunshine. I don't know, but I'm
Speaker 4: a mountain girls. Stop.
Speaker 7: Is there anyone in Palm Beach who doesn't do pilates?
Speaker 4: Probably not?
Speaker 10: Probably central part. Okay, Wearable health trackers yes, Okay, so popular.
Speaker 4: Okay, this is great, this is a great story. It's
Speaker 4: on the terminal.
Speaker 10: You have the or ring, right, the Apple Watch, garment devices, fitbits,
Speaker 10: all this stuff that can track you. Experts are saying,
Speaker 10: you know what, they can provide some great health information
Speaker 10: like your sleep status.
Speaker 4: And all this stuff sleeps. But there is a butt
Speaker 4: to it. Now.
Speaker 10: They're saying data overload is causing people anxiety. So they're
Speaker 10: starting to get anxious, like they always think maybe something's
Speaker 10: wrong with them or or maybe they're sick, or maybe
Speaker 10: they're doing this, or maybe something's wrong. So that's kind
Speaker 10: of the downside of it.
Speaker 4: They're saying.
Speaker 10: With some of these wearable.
Speaker 3: Trackers, everybody's wearing those rings. They have the people come
Speaker 3: and sit next to me in this studio. They've got
Speaker 3: the ring and they have the ring. I know the
Speaker 3: or ring side.
Speaker 7: I'm so out of it.
Speaker 4: We have to get you on, and that's what we'll do.
Speaker 4: We'll get an oral ring for Tom he is.
Speaker 10: You can see it if you're watching on YouTube.
Speaker 4: Is there, it is so and its everything. Point them out.
Speaker 4: I'll shame these people from.
Speaker 7: Afterthoughts Visaya exactly.
Speaker 4: That's what we need.
Speaker 10: It's a great, great tool, but it can make you
Speaker 10: a little bit, you know.
Speaker 7: Okay, you save yourself.
Speaker 10: This is a good one because you know I have
Speaker 10: Paul going off to Aruba. So I'm gonna set the
Speaker 10: scene before I get to this story.
Speaker 4: Okay, hit it Ken wasting mar we Go Fall.
Speaker 10: Okay, there's a reason why I'm playing this. It's because
Speaker 10: Jimmy Buffett's old recording studio is wasting away in Margaritaville. Okay,
Speaker 10: it's causing some controversy.
Speaker 4: So here it is. It's over in Key West, right.
Speaker 10: It's this worn out bunker building, no windows, but Jimmy Buffett.
Speaker 4: Record a dozen violins there, right, So many famous names
Speaker 4: came through there.
Speaker 10: But since he died in twenty twenty three, it's become
Speaker 10: this controversy because they're deciding what to do with it.
Speaker 4: So they bring this proposal.
Speaker 10: They're asking people for their proposals on what to do
Speaker 10: with it, and some people are saying, you know what,
Speaker 10: they want to turn into a bar. But some people
Speaker 10: are saying, you know what, No, it should be like
Speaker 10: a museum or like a place.
Speaker 4: Keep it as a studio. It's a piece of history.
Speaker 7: Huge deal.
Speaker 2: Is the Chateau of Elton John outside Paris is in
Speaker 2: massive disrepair. They're trying to figure out what to do
Speaker 2: with that. There's the whole Montester at Caribbean thing. Yes,
Speaker 2: same thing, Georgia Martin. It's all in disrepair. So that
Speaker 2: was very good. She saved herself.
Speaker 3: Jimmy Buffet always do you have flip flops today?
Speaker 4: But I got the flips flops ready. That's the only
Speaker 4: show I'm bringing down.
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