1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 2: We are honored at this moment of a view of 7 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 2: the American labor economy. You've speak to Claudia Sam with 8 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 2: all of our affiliations with Michigan, whether the definitive de 9 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:38,279 Speaker 2: Sam rule, We're thrilled she could join us today. From 10 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 2: New Century Advisors, I'm looking at this report. First of all, 11 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 2: mister Myron looks pretty good here on his path to 12 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 2: six rate cuts. Very simply, the revision is a negative 13 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 2: seventy six thousand. That is a negative twenty six thousand 14 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 2: combined statistic the three months moving average. Thank you Scott 15 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 2: and in our team Vince gollin Off for this the 16 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:07,119 Speaker 2: three months moving average change. Paul, look at that negative 17 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 2: twenty two thousand exactly. 18 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 3: Claudia saw, I'm here joining us still chief economist and 19 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 3: New Century Advisors. 20 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 4: Quick read from you, Claudia on some of. 21 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:18,479 Speaker 3: These numbers, I mean, I don't know the unemployment rate 22 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 3: tick down to four point four percent. 23 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, no, that is very encouraging. 24 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 6: I mean, we've seen the unemployment rate moving up since 25 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:28,319 Speaker 6: the middle of the year. There were some reasons to 26 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 6: think that maybe the November number, the four point six percent, 27 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 6: was somewhat elevated with the government shutdown ending, and so 28 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 6: it is reassuring to see some of that come back off. 29 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 5: But it has risen over the course of the year. 30 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:41,040 Speaker 5: That is problematic. 31 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 6: And then you know, you do point to these payroll 32 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 6: numbers are really weak, and next month we're going to 33 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 6: get the annual revisions in which we know is going 34 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 6: to take a good chunk out of over the last year. 35 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 6: So we do have this very slow job creation unemployment 36 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 6: rates rising. It's not it is very reassuring to see 37 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 6: this steady march and the unemployment rate kind of take 38 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 6: a little bit of edge off. But you know, we're 39 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 6: not all clear here. This is not this is a 40 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 6: very confusing and risky, potentially risky picture. 41 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 7: Doctor. Someone just right where I wanted to go. We're 42 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 7: at Jackson Hole. 43 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 2: She and I are looking out over, you know, through 44 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:22,080 Speaker 2: the big window in the mountains in the backcheon and 45 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 2: she's so delicate. She says, hey, stupid, it's about the 46 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 2: revision report in February, Claudia Simon, I mean, with futures 47 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 2: of fifteen year folks, a nice lift to the market. 48 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 7: Claudia Sam this revision coming up. 49 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 2: You and Anna Wong have really really emphasized what do 50 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 2: you glean from the new BLS about what that big 51 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 2: revision in thirty days is going to tell us? 52 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 6: Right? Well, I think you know we've I mean, there's 53 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 6: going to be a large downward revision in the prior year. 54 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 6: So we've had, you know, we just haven't had a 55 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 6: lot of job creation. Now the again, the unemployed rate 56 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,639 Speaker 6: has been rising, not dramatically, so there has been in 57 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 6: the payrolls. There has been kind of a slowing supply 58 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 6: of labor and a slowing demand of labor. The slowing 59 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:10,639 Speaker 6: demand is winning out. The unemployer rate is coming up. 60 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:13,679 Speaker 5: But the big sure looks much more ominous. 61 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 6: If you only look at payrolls, And maybe it doesn't 62 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 6: look ominous enough if we only look at the unplayer rate. 63 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 6: Like you got to kind of put all the pieces together, 64 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 6: but it's it's certainly a concern and a risk, and 65 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 6: this is exactly what the FED was responding to. I mean, 66 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 6: they cut rate seventy five basis points last year with 67 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 6: inflation outivated on concerns about where So this is also 68 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 6: validating I think FED as a hole, like they are 69 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 6: moving on concerns about the labor market and it's we 70 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 6: are seeing it in the data. 71 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 2: Okay, but Governor Sam see how I'm like, I'm running 72 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 2: the next job for governor some If you look at 73 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 2: the three rate cuts in all, it's a nonlinear function. 74 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 2: I mean, when does a twenty five beat rate cut 75 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 2: kick in to advance that demand for jobs to get 76 00:03:58,360 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 2: job formation going again? 77 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 7: Right? 78 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 6: Well, I think this is where the FED really took 79 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 6: the view of front loading these cuts on concerns about 80 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 6: where the labor market might go that do that really 81 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 6: raises the bar for them to do more cuts in January. 82 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 6: It's kind of like they took an effort there and 83 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 6: takes time for that to work its way through the economy. 84 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 5: They're looking out at seeing some fiscal policy. 85 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 6: That should come online that should be somewhat supportive early 86 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 6: in this year, Like we have the ingredients here to 87 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:28,359 Speaker 6: stabilize labor market, get hiring, you know, back on track. 88 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:31,279 Speaker 6: But we don't really have many signs of that happening yet, 89 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:33,159 Speaker 6: but the Fed has kind of done their work, and 90 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:34,679 Speaker 6: I think they're going to want to see. 91 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 5: How this plays out, you know, keeping a care fly 92 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 5: on it. 93 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 6: But the fact that we saw the unemployment rate take 94 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 6: down that gives them some breathing room. 95 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,720 Speaker 2: We continue with Claudia's futures advance up fourteen fifteen, now 96 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 2: up twenty one, a bid into the market and down 97 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 2: features up one point thirty. Oh and I don't have 98 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 2: a fifty thousand on futures print right now in now, 99 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 2: but it's remarkable where they're The vix comes in constructively 100 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 2: fifteen point twenty three. 101 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 7: The Sweeny yield was shock the unched here. 102 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 2: I wonder if that's a typo on the Bloomberg but 103 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 2: a little bit higher yield structure. I noticed dollar strength 104 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:11,480 Speaker 2: as well. Oil on Venezuela really not doing much today. 105 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 2: Gold you're kidding me, Paul, up thirty six dollars and 106 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 2: you're forty five hundred ounce Sweeney with car with Claudia. 107 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 4: Sam Claudia. Let's look at the wage side here. 108 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 3: Average hourly earnings on a year on year basis up 109 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:29,160 Speaker 3: three point eight percent. That's consensus. That's pretty solid. Consensus 110 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:32,039 Speaker 3: was three point six. The revised last period was up 111 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 3: a little bit to three point six. So three point 112 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,719 Speaker 3: eight percent earnings growth? What do you make of that? 113 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 6: So, I mean that is a I mean that's a 114 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,799 Speaker 6: bump up on Yes, that's above expectations. I think it'll 115 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 6: be you know, always kind of concerned about one month 116 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 6: and looking at composition, but you know that we've seen 117 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 6: big picture, We've seen moderation and wage growth, but it 118 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 6: has been very gradual right over time. So that does 119 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 6: you know, fit within the you know, wage grows still 120 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 6: and this is still elevated, which does fit with I 121 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 6: mean productivity is higher too, So I don't think this 122 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 6: is a number that would necessarily cause concern about you know, 123 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 6: spillovers to inflation, but it is, you know, something to 124 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 6: keep an eye on. 125 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 2: So what I mean, you've alluded to this, But to you, 126 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,839 Speaker 2: is the January meeting now a big We got CPI, 127 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 2: but it's January meeting now a bigger deal? Or is 128 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 2: Claudia sam out to March and beyond? 129 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 5: Well, every every meeting is a live meeting. 130 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 6: But I to me this they really put effort into 131 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,360 Speaker 6: getting the rate cuts done last year, putting together even 132 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:39,679 Speaker 6: though there were questions, abou. 133 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,040 Speaker 5: Should we way for more data? Is it really necessary? 134 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 6: I think this front loading, which is a smart thing 135 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 6: because the policy takes a while to take effect, so 136 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 6: I think to get that done, there's probably going to 137 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 6: be a we want to, you know, really assess the situation. 138 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:56,600 Speaker 6: So I don't I don't see them having their urgency 139 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 6: with January, particularly with this report. 140 00:06:58,320 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 5: Today. 141 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 2: Claudia sam with us and we continue commercial free in 142 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 2: this hour. Michael McGee coming up. Christina CAMMANI comes in 143 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:08,839 Speaker 2: the studio and drops everything. She dropped Lisa's breakfast. I 144 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 2: mean we'll get to her in a moment. 145 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 7: With Invesco as well. We're going to continue with doctor 146 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 7: some Paul. We continue with the bid moving up, futures 147 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 7: up twenty. 148 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 4: Four, absolutely laudy. 149 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 3: We're gonna get some inflation data coming up soon here 150 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 3: just on the other mandate for this FED kind of 151 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 3: what are you looking for there? 152 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 6: Yeah, we had the last inflation reading we have with 153 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 6: the CPI was very distorted by all the disruptions from 154 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 6: missing a month of data basically with inflation. So I 155 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 6: think next week is just seeing how much of those 156 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 6: distortions shake their way out and to get a little 157 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 6: bit cleaner read on inflation. 158 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 5: I think today with employment, we. 159 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 6: Probably shook out a lot of any of the distortions 160 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 6: from the government shutdown on the employment data. I don't 161 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 6: think we're going to get fully back to normal in 162 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 6: terms of CPI with next week's report, but I think 163 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 6: that's just getting something back to a more normal reading, 164 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 6: which you know is inflation is still elevated, and then 165 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 6: trying to peace out. Are there any signs, like real signs, 166 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 6: not some measurement quirk, but real signs of inflation turning 167 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 6: the corner and really making you know, pointing towards two percent. 168 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 6: I think, you know, we're not going to get any 169 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 6: like super clarity on Monday, but hopefully we'll clear out 170 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 6: some of the distortions. 171 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 2: Oh, I just moved it ahead. The tweets are coming out. 172 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 2: I mean, everybody's working on Twitter and LinkedIn now to 173 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 2: get an immediate message in vesco does that is well? 174 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 2: CLAUDIUSA just you know, is the analysis comes out here, 175 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 2: What is the efficacy of taking a three month moving 176 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 2: average or taking three months of shut down and non 177 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 2: shut down data and annualizing that. 178 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 7: Is that a good University of Michigan experiment. 179 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 6: Yeah, well, I have to say, I mean, you know, 180 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:51,440 Speaker 6: with my recession indicator, I need a three month average 181 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:53,560 Speaker 6: at the unemployment rate. I can't even take the app 182 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 6: like October doesn't exist, right, So I mean we're in 183 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 6: a moment and we've had more distortions in the data. 184 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:01,359 Speaker 5: So just and it's a moment. 185 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,959 Speaker 6: Where you take these averages because you're trying to smooth 186 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 6: out just some of the noise that comes from trying 187 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 6: to measure a thirty trillion dollar economy. And you know, 188 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 6: we're just it's been hard to even do that exercise. 189 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 6: So I continue to you know, that is the way 190 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 6: to think about this, Like you want to smooth out 191 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 6: and you also want to step back and look at 192 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 6: trends not just over three months. Like to me, the 193 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,880 Speaker 6: fact that we've had an unemployment rate rising gradually over 194 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 6: two and a half years by a percentage point, I mean, 195 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 6: like you got to like look at the big picture too. 196 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 2: Claudia, thank you so much, just really really really valuable. 197 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 2: Her labor share of the economy is jaw dropping. I 198 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 2: can't say enough about it. I'll effort that chart out 199 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 2: on Twitter and LinkedIn stealing it from doctor Some. She's 200 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 2: chief economist New Century Advisors. 201 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 7: Stay with us. 202 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 203 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 204 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 205 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Atto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 206 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:12,920 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 207 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,680 Speaker 3: Christina camp Many Joints is here, Senior portfolio Manager, Global 208 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 3: Debt at Invesco. Here, Christina, you see a labor number 209 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 3: here today that if you just look at the you know, 210 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 3: the headline unemployment rate, it seems like the labor market's okay. 211 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:27,719 Speaker 3: Does that lend you to believe that the FED may 212 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 3: wait a little bit, give them some confidence to wait 213 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 3: a little bit? 214 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 8: I think, morning, and thank you again for having me. 215 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 8: And I dropped all my thanks because I was so 216 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 8: excited to log into the terminal. 217 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 4: And see what the data was. 218 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 8: You could come back, but I think I think we 219 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:44,080 Speaker 8: may be back to a FED sitting on their hands 220 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 8: mode and trying to decipher through the data. And again 221 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 8: we're still like, these are all noisy numbers. You're like, oh, 222 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 8: great headlines fifty. Well, revisions is minus seventy six, but 223 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,199 Speaker 8: the unemployment rates better, and I think the FED will 224 00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 8: probably be most focused and comforted by the unemployment rate. 225 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 8: And the market's not really pricing much for the FED 226 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 8: really until we get the new chair in June, so 227 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:10,559 Speaker 8: I think that that kind of remains our base case 228 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 8: for the FED. 229 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 4: Here. 230 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 3: So twenty twenty five for the bond investors a really 231 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 3: good year. The AD was up seven percent something along 232 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 3: those lines. In twenty twenty six, Am I just clip 233 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 3: clipping coupons? Is that how I should think about fixed income? 234 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 8: Look, I think that there's still absolutely an opportunity in 235 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 8: fixed income. I think the same pounding the table that 236 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 8: we've had for the last year, that there is, especially 237 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:37,679 Speaker 8: in this environment, and opportunity for global fixed income when 238 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 8: you take a step back, and that doesn't mean not 239 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 8: the US, it means including the rest of the world, 240 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 8: which I think investors typically do not do. But I 241 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 8: think it's about I think curves should probably still steep in, 242 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 8: but there's still some that gives you roll down opportunity, 243 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:54,400 Speaker 8: and there's value in the front end, and I think 244 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 8: thinking about the long end of the market, we have 245 00:11:57,160 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 8: to think about all these things back to the questions 246 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 8: that we had at the beginning last year, what are 247 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 8: the policy at the administration's policy objectives going into midterms? 248 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:08,440 Speaker 8: Like what are they trying to accomplish? And then what 249 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 8: is the impacts on fundamentals? And I think there are 250 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 8: so many moving pieces, but it's still about security and 251 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 8: what's going on with like Trump seems to want cheaper 252 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 8: oil and cheaper mortgage rates and those focuses, and then 253 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:22,839 Speaker 8: what do they mean to the market? 254 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:24,960 Speaker 2: Future's up twenty six right now, there's a bid to 255 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:29,680 Speaker 2: the market, Christina out passed. Where your own power controls things, 256 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,000 Speaker 2: or maybe mister Myron controls things. 257 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 7: What does the spread. 258 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 2: You find most efficacious? Don't give me the vanilla two 259 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 2: ten when you walk in the morning and tune into 260 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:43,440 Speaker 2: one of your three Bloomberg terminals, which is the spread 261 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:44,560 Speaker 2: that matters to you? 262 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,199 Speaker 8: So lately we've been looking at two thirties and we 263 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 8: laugh that in a lot of places, meaning across a 264 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:52,440 Speaker 8: lot of different markets, different regions, it's like the whole 265 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:57,120 Speaker 8: curve because we're in this dynamic that the front end 266 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 8: offers value right in twos and the FED has done 267 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 8: some work and seems to be kind of patient for now, 268 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:09,199 Speaker 8: but it feels like the bar or whatever forward FED 269 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 8: that we have to hike is very very high, and 270 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 8: depending on who we get with the next FED chair, 271 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 8: the bar could be differing in terms of how quick 272 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 8: we are to ease. So that's the front end, and 273 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:24,320 Speaker 8: then I think because of all of these fiscal dynamics 274 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 8: we're talking about increasing the defense budget, spending and all 275 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 8: of these things, the long end matters even more so, 276 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 8: like we really are zoomed out and looking at the 277 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 8: entire curve and looking at two thirty sometimes and again 278 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:38,319 Speaker 8: it'll shift depending on what's going on and what we've priced. 279 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 3: But how do you think about in twenty twenty six 280 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 3: is as you look ahead here US versus rest of 281 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:45,840 Speaker 3: the world, because boy, if you look at the stock 282 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 3: market in twenty twenty five, as well as the US did, 283 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 3: international markets did even better. 284 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:53,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, how do you think about it? In the fixtion 285 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:53,720 Speaker 4: come world. 286 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:55,839 Speaker 5: So again, we run global funds. 287 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 8: So twenty twenty five is an exciting year for US 288 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 8: that there's finally some ability to step back. And again 289 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 8: it doesn't mean that the US is not investable in 290 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 8: a great place to invest, but look at all these 291 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 8: opportunities elsewhere, and I think that still is the story 292 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 8: in the underlying thesis, right, Like there is growth in 293 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:15,679 Speaker 8: the US and there are positive dynamics here, but a 294 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 8: strong US is good for the rest of the world too. 295 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 8: And I think that there are opportunities in foreign exchange 296 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 8: markets as a standalone. There are certainly across fixed income markets, 297 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 8: and I think inequities again, like we're not equity managers 298 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 8: our team, but I think that that global story is 299 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 8: here to stay. And again, when you zoom out and 300 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 8: you talk about dollar cycles or all these cycles, they're 301 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 8: normally multi year, if not ten year cycles. 302 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 2: Off the radar is continental Europe. Goldman Sachs publishes today's 303 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 2: Spend Your Spend and their EU team that Germany's just 304 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 2: simply better than people expect. We've heard that from German 305 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 2: banks as well. Is there a hidden value in larger 306 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 2: developed EU that I haven't talked about in what, Paul 307 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 2: three years. 308 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 5: So I'm not sure. 309 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 8: Again, it's hard to get super excited about, just like 310 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 8: European Union across the board different countries because of how 311 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 8: tight things are. But I think your first point is 312 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 8: right that people you had a lot of excitement in 313 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 8: Q one on the German defense spending and all of that. 314 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 8: But whether you talk to people, certainly in continental Europe 315 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 8: but here too, I think there's a lot of negativity 316 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 8: and people just don't believe that Europe can ever get 317 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 8: out of its own way. And I think that there 318 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 8: is more positive things happening there than is price or 319 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 8: that people give credit to. I think so, I think so. 320 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 8: I think we are at a point that you need 321 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 8: to see some proof in the pudding. I think maybe 322 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 8: equities has it more. I think the euro itself has 323 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 8: different like there are different dynamics there and it's funding 324 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 8: and it depends what goes on with central banks. But 325 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 8: I think there is still opportunities there for sure. 326 00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 3: You know, I think in twenty twenty five I heard 327 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:02,000 Speaker 3: more discussion about emerging markets and happened many years for sure. 328 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 4: Why is that and how do you guys think about it? Yeah, so. 329 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 8: We have a team that has a deep, long history 330 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 8: of investing in emerging markets, but again last year was 331 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 8: certainly a time that it got broad interest. I think 332 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 8: for us we think about em that it's you have 333 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 8: to think of it, that it can't just be a 334 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 8: consistent allocation blindly because it is super volatile, but there 335 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,640 Speaker 8: are opportunities there. I think the places that stand out 336 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 8: in particular are Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Aruba. 337 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 5: I don't know about Aruba, but you know. 338 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 6: I heard. 339 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:43,200 Speaker 8: I heard we were supposed to go to Aruba hot 340 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 8: for our first baby moon. I got canceled back on 341 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 8: twenty sixteenth, so I've never looked, but I think those 342 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 8: markets you have Steve curves high real yields, there are 343 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 8: opportunities both in rates and in FX, and we are 344 00:16:57,520 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 8: we are involved in those Christians and you. 345 00:16:59,320 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 7: Thank you so much. 346 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 2: I really really appreciate Senior portfolio manager and Vesco stay 347 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 2: with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 348 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 349 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:21,919 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 350 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:24,920 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 351 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just 352 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:31,159 Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 353 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:32,680 Speaker 7: He is Magnificent. 354 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 2: The essay at High Frequency Economics is a yield based 355 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:40,959 Speaker 2: analysis of the economy. It is what Karl Weinberg did 356 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 2: at Lehman Brothers for decades, and it was just thrilled 357 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 2: that he could join us here this morning. 358 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:46,160 Speaker 7: Karl. 359 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 2: I love your research note and that you say the 360 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 2: labor market's going to hover, but GDP may be light. 361 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:56,679 Speaker 2: Link the two together into the first part of twenty 362 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:57,400 Speaker 2: twenty six. 363 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 9: Hi, Tom, good morning. Thanks for having me back on 364 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 9: the show. It's been a while. 365 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 10: You know. 366 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:03,679 Speaker 7: We're at full employment. 367 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 9: That's my assessment anyhow, others might not agree with that. 368 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,960 Speaker 9: But even at a four and a half percent unemployment rate, 369 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 9: which I think, by the way, is going to go 370 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 9: down in this morning's report, and we'll get a revision 371 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:17,680 Speaker 9: downward to the figure that we saw for in November. 372 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 9: But when we're at full employment like this, all right, 373 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 9: the economy has trouble growing. The only way it can 374 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:28,200 Speaker 9: grow is either by immigration or getting more people in 375 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 9: the labor force, or by increasing productivity. So productivity was 376 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:35,159 Speaker 9: really strong in the third quarter. The economy grew well, 377 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 9: but there's no promise that those productivity gains are going 378 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 9: to continue into the fourth quarter. So GDP growth may 379 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:44,119 Speaker 9: be capped, if you will, by the economy being at 380 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:45,200 Speaker 9: full employment right now. 381 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 2: I really I'm more focused folks on the SAGI GDP 382 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 2: outlook of selected economists. Mister Myron wants six rate cuts 383 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 2: one and a half percent, down, down down. 384 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 7: Is that a Carl Weinberg theme. 385 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:00,760 Speaker 9: Absolutely not. I think Myron is wrong. I think he's 386 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:04,720 Speaker 9: abusing and misinterpreting the tailor rule and the estimates and 387 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:09,120 Speaker 9: the importance of our star within the tailor rule. Our 388 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:13,639 Speaker 9: star certainly has come down, but potential GDP has also 389 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:16,399 Speaker 9: come down, potential GDP growth. So when you put the 390 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 9: two together, there's no recommendation from the tailor rule or 391 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 9: anything that I know about economics for the Fed to 392 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 9: continue to cut rates with the economy at full employment. 393 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 2: This is Kerl Weinberg and Michael Faroli at JP Morgan 394 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 2: this phrase potential GDP. None of these people within the 395 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 2: Trump administration talk about. It's like they're blanked Carl. 396 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:39,639 Speaker 3: The focus obviously today will be on the labor market. 397 00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 3: But the other side of the Fed mandate is inflation. 398 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,400 Speaker 3: What's your inflation view. Are you concerned that we may 399 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,200 Speaker 3: see stick your inflation, that maybe the market's discounting. 400 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:55,080 Speaker 9: I'm concerned about more inflation as twenty twenty six progresses, 401 00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 9: because if the economy continues to grow, but it can't 402 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 9: find the work to make it grow. Then we'll have 403 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,160 Speaker 9: too much income chasing too few goods, and that will 404 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 9: put upward pressure on prices. Once again. To me, that's 405 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 9: what the FED should be thinking about. To my clients, 406 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 9: that's not what the FED is thinking about. But in 407 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:19,120 Speaker 9: my view, that's what the FED should be thinking about. 408 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 3: So given that backdrop, how do you expect the FED 409 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:24,439 Speaker 3: to behave this year? Is it one cut, two cuts? 410 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,160 Speaker 3: Do they need to be more aggressive less aggressive? 411 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 7: I don't know. 412 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:30,920 Speaker 9: I mean, that's really a big question we have. First 413 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 9: of all, we have four new voters on the FOMC. 414 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:37,840 Speaker 9: We've lost both of the voters who dissented from previous 415 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,399 Speaker 9: rate cuts, and at least two of the new people 416 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:45,400 Speaker 9: coming on board may be more inclined to ease rather 417 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,440 Speaker 9: than to hold steady. Even as soon as the next 418 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 9: meeting against that FED share, Powell still commands probably three 419 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 9: votes on the FOMC out of the twelve. And that's 420 00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 9: the swing, if you will, between those who will ease 421 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 9: and those will settle. So I don't really know where 422 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:04,639 Speaker 9: they're going to go on this, but what I'm hoping 423 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 9: to see as we move through the year is a 424 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:11,399 Speaker 9: change in the perception that payrolls are slowing because the 425 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 9: economy is weak. That's where the FED is right now 426 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 9: to payrolls are slowing because the labor market is tight 427 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 9: and there just aren't enough workers to hire to keep 428 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 9: payrolls growing quickly. 429 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 7: Carl, we got some time left here. I want to 430 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 7: get you on much more in twenty twenty six. You 431 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 7: should see. 432 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:28,920 Speaker 2: Where he lives. 433 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 7: I mean, I took the Nash Rambler once. 434 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, I had to put you know, the chains on 435 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:34,679 Speaker 2: it in I'll enter to get up. 436 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:36,919 Speaker 7: Okay, it's up the toconomy. You know it's it's like 437 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 7: God's country. Yes, sure, it's beautiful. 438 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 2: Carl in your note And I got any ways to 439 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:42,959 Speaker 2: go your Carl, but I got to go to your 440 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 2: legendary reputation on the Pacific rim and on crisis. Do 441 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 2: you are your radar up in twenty twenty six for 442 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 2: China or other currency or debt upsets. 443 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 9: I'm upset for I'm on the alert for a lot 444 00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:02,640 Speaker 9: of things coming from China this year that we've never 445 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 9: seen before. If you read the IEA's Critical Critical Critical 446 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 9: Minerals Outlook, I believe is the proper name of it. Okay, 447 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:15,679 Speaker 9: China sits at the root of every supply chain for 448 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 9: every critical material for every Western economy, no exceptions to that. 449 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:25,200 Speaker 9: So all right, this is a weapon that G tested 450 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 9: with rare earths last year that he's testing right now 451 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 9: again with Japan. And G has things that he wants 452 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 9: and I think he's going to asking for them with 453 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 9: Lee Ridge. I think that's the risk for China in 454 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 9: the new year. 455 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,880 Speaker 2: Carl, not enough time, Thank you so much, Carl Weinberg 456 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,479 Speaker 2: with this high frequency economics, just definitive research report. 457 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 7: Stay with us. 458 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 459 00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:59,919 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 460 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,639 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple cor Play and 461 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,679 Speaker 1: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also 462 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:09,440 Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 463 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 464 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 7: The Newspapers with Lisa Matteo. Good morning. 465 00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 10: All right, I have a question for you, which do 466 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:18,920 Speaker 10: you think has the priceiest homes? 467 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 4: We're talking Aspen versus Palm Beach. Okay, this is it. 468 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:25,920 Speaker 4: Do you go mountains or do you go, I'm going 469 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 4: to Aspen in March. Okay, yeah, we get back from 470 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:30,080 Speaker 4: a room. 471 00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 7: You only go places that are letter. 472 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:37,000 Speaker 3: A yes exactly either of this year. And I'll tell 473 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:38,840 Speaker 3: you what we got. The quote from our guy and 474 00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:42,119 Speaker 3: our group. He always gets the condo force noticeably higher 475 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 3: than where we usually do, which we got to Park 476 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,520 Speaker 3: City in Vale and Tahoe noticeably more expensive, and Aspen 477 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:47,920 Speaker 3: this year. 478 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:51,359 Speaker 10: Okay, so lots of answer and answer. Okay, so here 479 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 10: here's the reasoning behind us. So the Wall Street Journal 480 00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,960 Speaker 10: kind of did this look into both. So Aspen the 481 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,880 Speaker 10: data shows thirty four deals above twenty million last year, 482 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 10: up one hundred in sixty one percent from twenty twenty four. 483 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:05,880 Speaker 10: So if you compare the price, right, you look at 484 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,639 Speaker 10: the medium single family home price and Aspen about fourteen 485 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 10: million during twenty twenty five, the third quarter. 486 00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 4: Nine million in Palm Beach. 487 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,800 Speaker 10: But then you have the tax factor too, right, Florida 488 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 10: is the tax haven, so they have that advantage. Carlado 489 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,760 Speaker 10: has like a four point four percent state income tax. 490 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,680 Speaker 10: But then you have to take into consideration the insurance 491 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 10: factor too, where Florida it's much higher, So you kind 492 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,399 Speaker 10: of have to weigh all these factors and figure out 493 00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 10: which is chosen for the plan. 494 00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 4: I'm I like the sunshine. I don't know, but I'm 495 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 4: a mountain girls. Stop. 496 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 7: Is there anyone in Palm Beach who doesn't do pilates? 497 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:43,679 Speaker 4: Probably not? 498 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 10: Probably central part. Okay, Wearable health trackers yes, Okay, so popular. 499 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,640 Speaker 4: Okay, this is great, this is a great story. It's 500 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:56,360 Speaker 4: on the terminal. 501 00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 10: You have the or ring, right, the Apple Watch, garment devices, fitbits, 502 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,880 Speaker 10: all this stuff that can track you. Experts are saying, 503 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 10: you know what, they can provide some great health information 504 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 10: like your sleep status. 505 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 4: And all this stuff sleeps. But there is a butt 506 00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:09,680 Speaker 4: to it. Now. 507 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:15,360 Speaker 10: They're saying data overload is causing people anxiety. So they're 508 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,959 Speaker 10: starting to get anxious, like they always think maybe something's 509 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 10: wrong with them or or maybe they're sick, or maybe 510 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:23,120 Speaker 10: they're doing this, or maybe something's wrong. So that's kind 511 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 10: of the downside of it. 512 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 4: They're saying. 513 00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,120 Speaker 10: With some of these wearable. 514 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:29,119 Speaker 3: Trackers, everybody's wearing those rings. They have the people come 515 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 3: and sit next to me in this studio. They've got 516 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 3: the ring and they have the ring. I know the 517 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 3: or ring side. 518 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:36,640 Speaker 7: I'm so out of it. 519 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 4: We have to get you on, and that's what we'll do. 520 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:40,520 Speaker 4: We'll get an oral ring for Tom he is. 521 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 10: You can see it if you're watching on YouTube. 522 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 4: Is there, it is so and its everything. Point them out. 523 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:51,439 Speaker 4: I'll shame these people from. 524 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,120 Speaker 7: Afterthoughts Visaya exactly. 525 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 4: That's what we need. 526 00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,679 Speaker 10: It's a great, great tool, but it can make you 527 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 10: a little bit, you know. 528 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,280 Speaker 7: Okay, you save yourself. 529 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 10: This is a good one because you know I have 530 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,479 Speaker 10: Paul going off to Aruba. So I'm gonna set the 531 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:11,040 Speaker 10: scene before I get to this story. 532 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:17,320 Speaker 4: Okay, hit it Ken wasting mar we Go Fall. 533 00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:20,919 Speaker 10: Okay, there's a reason why I'm playing this. It's because 534 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 10: Jimmy Buffett's old recording studio is wasting away in Margaritaville. Okay, 535 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:27,680 Speaker 10: it's causing some controversy. 536 00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 4: So here it is. It's over in Key West, right. 537 00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:35,480 Speaker 10: It's this worn out bunker building, no windows, but Jimmy Buffett. 538 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 4: Record a dozen violins there, right, So many famous names 539 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:39,359 Speaker 4: came through there. 540 00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:43,359 Speaker 10: But since he died in twenty twenty three, it's become 541 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,919 Speaker 10: this controversy because they're deciding what to do with it. 542 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:48,159 Speaker 4: So they bring this proposal. 543 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,560 Speaker 10: They're asking people for their proposals on what to do 544 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:53,679 Speaker 10: with it, and some people are saying, you know what, 545 00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,200 Speaker 10: they want to turn into a bar. But some people 546 00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,320 Speaker 10: are saying, you know what, No, it should be like 547 00:26:58,440 --> 00:26:59,959 Speaker 10: a museum or like a place. 548 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,840 Speaker 4: Keep it as a studio. It's a piece of history. 549 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:03,640 Speaker 7: Huge deal. 550 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,000 Speaker 2: Is the Chateau of Elton John outside Paris is in 551 00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,960 Speaker 2: massive disrepair. They're trying to figure out what to do 552 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 2: with that. There's the whole Montester at Caribbean thing. Yes, 553 00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:17,080 Speaker 2: same thing, Georgia Martin. It's all in disrepair. So that 554 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,240 Speaker 2: was very good. She saved herself. 555 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:24,800 Speaker 3: Jimmy Buffet always do you have flip flops today? 556 00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,800 Speaker 4: But I got the flips flops ready. That's the only 557 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:28,680 Speaker 4: show I'm bringing down. 558 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:34,040 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 559 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:38,440 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 560 00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, 561 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 562 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,160 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 563 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,440 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg Terminal