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Speaker 2: The tenth of June. Can you believe it? It's going
Speaker 2: quick and this is the breather, the moment for Joe
Speaker 2: Biden to regroup before the next big stop on the
Speaker 2: international tour, coming off of his trip to France last week.
Speaker 2: We talked about it a lot, marking the eightieth anniversary
Speaker 2: of the D Day invasion, important meetings with President Zelenski,
Speaker 2: with Emmanuel Macron, and now it's onto the G seven.
Speaker 2: All of this with the weekend in between, that was
Speaker 2: quite newsy from Israel to EU elections. And that's where
Speaker 2: we start our conversation with Josh Wingrove, Blueberg White House
Speaker 2: correspondent back on the beat today and joining us from
Speaker 2: the North lawn of the White House. If you're with
Speaker 2: us on YouTube, it's great to see you, Josh. Thanks
Speaker 2: for joining. What are the next couple of days look
Speaker 2: like for Joe Biden? As he prepares for the G seven.
Speaker 2: The stakes seem to be rising even as he makes
Speaker 2: his way toward this trip.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Joe, good afternoon. He'll come back later today. He
Speaker 3: has a Juneteenth concert here this evening. But all eyes
Speaker 3: really are going to be on that trip later in
Speaker 3: the week, and whether they can sort of make headway,
Speaker 3: in particular on the question of seized Russian assets and
Speaker 3: is there any way to essentially monetize them somehow to
Speaker 3: get Ukraine billions in aid sooner rather than sort of
Speaker 3: waiting for these processes to drag out. There's been a
Speaker 3: lot of disagreement on that, but it seems like they've
Speaker 3: come to some sort of agreement. President Biden saying over
Speaker 3: the weekend after a meeting with French President Emmanuel mccarnel
Speaker 3: that he the two had discussed and they'd come to
Speaker 3: some sort of understanding. So we'll be looking at that.
Speaker 3: And in some ways this is because this G seven
Speaker 3: is poised to maybe change quite a bit. The elections
Speaker 3: that we had in Europe, of course, have sent a
Speaker 3: signal both in France and Germany about voter moods there.
Speaker 3: We've got elections in the UK later this year in
Speaker 3: the US, maybe one in Canada and the next year
Speaker 3: or so, so a lot of change maybe becoming a
Speaker 3: lot of these leaders might be swapping out. Of course,
Speaker 3: Donald Trump is looming in the offing, and they can
Speaker 3: sort of stock the cupboard a little bit on Ukraine
Speaker 3: aid that will sort of, you know, maybe tie the
Speaker 3: hands a little bit of or try to people that
Speaker 3: come after. So you might call this a little bit
Speaker 3: of Trump proofing maybe, But of course Biden wouldn't see
Speaker 3: it that way because he intends on being here in
Speaker 3: a second term, so he would dispute that nstrualization.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, tell me more about the seizon of
Speaker 2: Russian assets or more of the caching in of Russian
Speaker 2: assets and sending that money to Ukraine. Because the President
Speaker 2: signed into law something called the Repo Act and got
Speaker 2: a lot of debate here on Capitol Hill, and the
Speaker 2: anale is that that's great, but most of the money
Speaker 2: is in Europe, and so we can't do a lot
Speaker 2: without the cooperation of our European allies. Does that begin
Speaker 2: to clarify at this G seven?
Speaker 3: We think so, although the exact terms remain unclear, and
Speaker 3: it might not necessarily be clear by the time the
Speaker 3: G seven wraps up and the issue their communicator, but
Speaker 3: it looks like that communicate will have at least a
Speaker 3: top line commitment to something. The latest plan has been
Speaker 3: revolving around the either the US alone or the US
Speaker 3: and some other countries offering tens of billions in funding
Speaker 3: as a loan to Ukraine securitized essentially by these holdings.
Speaker 3: Now the math on that gets complicated, the rules get complicated,
Speaker 3: and whether that's going to Congress or not, what guarantees
Speaker 3: Europe can legally provide when they've got six month renewals
Speaker 3: of sanctions. It's messy, but it seems like they're getting somewhere. Essentially,
Speaker 3: this has been the US pressing to do something and
Speaker 3: the Europeans being hesitant for a range of reasons, among
Speaker 3: them legal ones, and of well, if we sort of
Speaker 3: tie up these assets by some sort of complex funding
Speaker 3: model and then we need to release them as part
Speaker 3: of say a peace deal, where does that leave us.
Speaker 3: So it does look like they're going to have progress
Speaker 3: on this one. That's a real top line. Another one, Joe,
Speaker 3: that we're watching for some action on China. We saw
Speaker 3: that with the G seven finance ministers in their meeting.
Speaker 3: We think that the leaders will sort of sing a
Speaker 3: United tune when it comes to warning about China overcapacity
Speaker 3: and the risk of Beijing essentially dumping its way to
Speaker 3: an economic recovery. So we'll be watching for that as well.
Speaker 3: But those are the big ones, I think broadly, though,
Speaker 3: it's just going to be a show of unity. Is
Speaker 3: echoing some of the themes we saw last week with
Speaker 3: the President's D Day visit, and some of those that
Speaker 3: I expect to see a month or so here in
Speaker 3: Washington at the NATO summit.
Speaker 2: Just in our last minute here, Josh, the President's also
Speaker 2: got Benjaminett Yahoo on the line, presumably the Secretary of State.
Speaker 2: Back in the Middle East here, I believe it's trip
Speaker 2: number eight, and there are questions about whether we are
Speaker 2: further away now from a ceasefire than we were before
Speaker 2: these hostages were rescued over the weekend in a raid
Speaker 2: included the deaths of more than two hundred Palestinians.
Speaker 3: Yeah, right now, it's up in the air where that's
Speaker 3: gonna Where the US views things right now. They have
Speaker 3: always said that they are waiting sort of on a
Speaker 3: formal response from hamas like a written response on the
Speaker 3: offer that Biden outlined about ten days or so ago.
Speaker 3: We just don't know. Typically before trips we do get
Speaker 3: briefings on this. Probably the National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan
Speaker 3: would be a candidate to do that. So if he
Speaker 3: is to speak to the press or speak publicly before
Speaker 3: this trip to the G seven, I'm sure, of course
Speaker 3: Top of Mind will be the latest on this. So
Speaker 3: we're waiting and seeing, but this remains a fraught one,
Speaker 3: of course.
Speaker 2: Joe, Josh. Great to have you, as always, Josh Wingrove,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg White House correspondent with us from the White House
Speaker 2: on a sunny Monday here in Washington as the President
Speaker 2: gets back to it in advance of the G seven,
Speaker 2: and we add the voice now of Christopher Smart, a
Speaker 2: conversation we've been looking forward to with a voice of experience.
Speaker 2: He's managing partner of our growth the Strategic Advisory forman
Speaker 2: was senior economic advisor in the Obama White House. Christopher,
Speaker 2: we just wrapped a conversation with Josh Wingrove talking about
Speaker 2: a very dangerous world that Joe Biden is operating in
Speaker 2: at the moment, and I love to start with you
Speaker 2: on Israel and your thoughts on what was quite a
Speaker 2: weekend here with not only the mission to rescue hostages,
Speaker 2: but Benny Gant's decision to step down. Is a cease
Speaker 2: fire suddenly on the back burner.
Speaker 4: Well, I think it is, at least for the next
Speaker 4: two days and maybe weeks. It's always an understatement to
Speaker 4: talk about Israel the Middle East in general and say
Speaker 4: it's complicated, but it did. It has gotten more complicated
Speaker 4: over the weekend as you as you describe. I think
Speaker 4: the ironic thing is everybody knows how this process needs
Speaker 4: to start, and everybody knows how this process needs to end,
Speaker 4: but it's very difficult to know how to get from
Speaker 4: the beginning to the end. The beginning obviously has to
Speaker 4: be a ceasefire, and I think it's been pushed back
Speaker 4: maybe a matter of days, maybe a matter of weeks,
Speaker 4: just in the in the events over the weekend.
Speaker 2: The process needs to end.
Speaker 4: I think in a grand agreement that is sort of
Speaker 4: part of everybody's talking points. That would include Palestinian governance
Speaker 4: that does not include Hamas that it would include a
Speaker 4: more centrist Israeli government. It would include importantly Saudi recognition
Speaker 4: of Israel, which would create a regional buy in to
Speaker 4: a peace process. And then lastly, you know, what's very
Speaker 4: easy to say and very difficult to implement, is a
Speaker 4: two state solution for this for Israel, Israelis and Palestinians. It's,
Speaker 4: as I say, it's very easy to say, very easy
Speaker 4: to describe, and I think it's very easy to get
Speaker 4: buy in all around for that end point, but it
Speaker 4: is a very big question about how we get from
Speaker 4: here to there.
Speaker 2: The US asking the UN Security Council now to vote
Speaker 2: on this latest resolution for a cease fire in Gaza,
Speaker 2: does that mean anything to Benjamin that Yahoo.
Speaker 4: I'm not sure it means anything to Benjamin that Yahoo,
Speaker 4: But I do think it means something more broadly to
Speaker 4: an Israeli political class that sees itself much more isolated
Speaker 4: in the world, that sees the endgame in Gaza as
Speaker 4: much more complicated. You know, for example, what does it
Speaker 4: really mean to get Hamas completely out of Gaza. That's
Speaker 4: a very difficult thing to describe and to to.
Speaker 2: Plan for the day after.
Speaker 4: What it does do, importantly, I think for President Biden
Speaker 4: it allows him to go to the G seven meetings
Speaker 4: later this week much close, much more closely aligned with
Speaker 4: Europeans and the Japanese Prime Minister for pushing this, pushing
Speaker 4: a cease fire forward, And I think that's very helpful
Speaker 4: for him and should be helpful for getting us to
Speaker 4: that next step in Israel.
Speaker 2: I wonder your thoughts, Christopher on now eighth trip, an
Speaker 2: eighth tour through the Middle East by Secretary of State
Speaker 2: Anthony Blinken. Is this helpful? Is he helping to bridge
Speaker 2: the gap? Does that presence mean something? Or is he
Speaker 2: somehow lowering the value of these trips by going so often?
Speaker 4: Well, I think he's got a long way to go
Speaker 4: to catch up with Henry Kissinger in his Middle East diplomacy.
Speaker 4: But I think these meetings are very important because the
Speaker 4: very fact that the US Secretary of State continues to
Speaker 4: talk to all sides, continues to bring messages back and forth,
Speaker 4: continues to look for where there may be wiggle room,
Speaker 4: where there may be room for the beginnings of an agreement.
Speaker 4: These things are never sort of completely baked and agreed.
Speaker 4: You have to kind of find a path forward and
Speaker 4: find a moment where a potential partial temporary agreements may
Speaker 4: fall into place that allows you to build on something
Speaker 4: stronger and more lasting. But I think it is very
Speaker 4: important for him to continue these trips, and I don't
Speaker 4: think they lose value the more he is in age.
Speaker 2: Well, as Joe Biden prepares for the G seven later
Speaker 2: this week, the headline from over the weekend and EU
Speaker 2: elections says it all on the terminal, mccron and Schultz
Speaker 2: get trounced by far right in EU elections. That has
Speaker 2: been the headline, largely by the media. Europe tilts right.
Speaker 2: What does it mean for Joe Biden's conversations later this week.
Speaker 4: Well, I would actually just take a quick step back
Speaker 4: and say the real headline this weekend is that, following
Speaker 4: the eightieth anniversary of D Day celebrations, three hundred million
Speaker 4: Europeans got to go to the polls and hold free,
Speaker 4: fair elections on Parliament, that is, governing increasingly important policy
Speaker 4: issues for the continent on trade, on competition, and increasingly
Speaker 4: on foreign policy. So I know that's not the headline,
Speaker 4: but I think it is worth taking a step back
Speaker 4: before we jump into the details to keep your perspective
Speaker 4: on that. The bad news, of course, well, I'll have
Speaker 4: an another good news headline, which is the Center seems
Speaker 4: to have held the coalition of parties from the center
Speaker 4: of right that have generally supported current President Versul vander
Speaker 4: Lyon looks like it is emerging quite strong from these
Speaker 4: elections and that she will continue most likely to be
Speaker 4: the leader of the European Commission. And so that also
Speaker 4: is good news for Europe that remains committed to Ukraine support,
Speaker 4: remains committed to further integration. Now to your point about
Speaker 4: weakened leaders in Germany and France, those are the two
Speaker 4: biggest economies in the European Union, those are the drivers
Speaker 4: of European integration, and both of them, as you say,
Speaker 4: have emerged quite badly injured from these results. Olef Schultz
Speaker 4: has another year and a half roughly to go before
Speaker 4: he needs to call an election. President Marcroan surprised us
Speaker 4: all by calling his own election. He remains in office
Speaker 4: for another three years, but I think he feels the
Speaker 4: need to really shake things up. It's a big gamble
Speaker 4: in France, which is seeing its own financial situation begin
Speaker 4: to deteriorate. It was downgraded, its debt was downgraded last week, and.
Speaker 2: The prospects of.
Speaker 4: A new government that takes control of that episcoal path
Speaker 4: look dim right now. And that's why you've seen the
Speaker 4: markets sell off quite quickly. For President Biden to get
Speaker 4: back to your question, I think you know he'll most
Speaker 4: likely ignore these near term results and focus on these
Speaker 4: longer term issues of agreement with European leaders on how
Speaker 4: to help Ukraine, as Josh walked us through before, on
Speaker 4: how to confront China and its exports that are flooding
Speaker 4: US and European markets, and I think, how to try
Speaker 4: and align themselves as closely as possible on a path
Speaker 4: forward in the Middle East.
Speaker 2: But you said something really important there, Christopher Smart. This
Speaker 2: is why we wanted to talk to you, is for perspective.
Speaker 2: We're seeking context here at Bloomberg constantly, because you said
Speaker 2: that could be a very different headline. The Center held
Speaker 2: while we did see some voters turn to the right.
Speaker 2: I wonder to what extent you see the war in
Speaker 2: Ukraine pushing them in that direction.
Speaker 4: I think a couple things that pushed them in that direction.
Speaker 4: One is the war in Ukraine, which is a serious
Speaker 4: security risk to the European Union. It's also a political affront.
Speaker 4: The European Union is built on the inviolability of borders
Speaker 4: and the fact that Russia felt that it could cross
Speaker 4: over into Ukraine with impunity. I think many Europeans take
Speaker 4: that sort of personally and emotionally, and I think.
Speaker 5: That's part of it.
Speaker 4: The other thing we don't talk about so much anymore,
Speaker 4: but is the COVID response. The EU responded very quickly
Speaker 4: and vigorously to COVID and put a lot of money
Speaker 4: into people's pockets. There are also a continuing stream of
Speaker 4: subsidies that come from Brussels to many EU countries right now.
Speaker 4: And importantly, the reason that it's important to focus on
Speaker 4: the fact that the center right held is that even
Speaker 4: these extreme right parties that we're talking about right now,
Speaker 4: and they pose their own danger. I don't want to
Speaker 4: minimize that, but they are not running on a let's
Speaker 4: pull out of Europe platform they were the way they
Speaker 4: were a few years ago. They're running on a let's
Speaker 4: do it differently, let's bring you know, a few more
Speaker 4: powers back to the capitals. But it would be very
Speaker 4: hard for any of them to say let's pull out now. Gosh,
Speaker 4: let's see what happened to the UK when they pulled out.
Speaker 4: That wasn't really a great story to tell. And you know,
Speaker 4: the UK is still limping from its wounds on that decision.
Speaker 4: And so I think, you know, the far right parties
Speaker 4: are very important to monitor, but they are not calling
Speaker 4: into question European institutions the way.
Speaker 2: Well, I'm really glad we could talk to you today,
Speaker 2: Christopher Smart, many thanks for joining us here on Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: From our growth This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can
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Speaker 2: As closing arguments get underway now and Hunter Biden's trial
Speaker 2: prosecutor Leo Wise, holding fourth year, talking to jurors just
Speaker 2: a short time ago, quote the evidence was personal. He said,
Speaker 2: it was ugly and it was overwhelming. Wise went on
Speaker 2: to say it was also absolutely necessary. We've heard some
Speaker 2: very personal and grizzly details over the past couple of
Speaker 2: days of testimony, and I'm glad that we could spend
Speaker 2: some time with June Grosso to give us a sense
Speaker 2: of what might happen next in this trial. Of course,
Speaker 2: the host of Bloomberg Law, who's had her hands full,
Speaker 2: you might say recently, I'm not sure who's covering politics
Speaker 2: and the legal world. Between the two of us, June,
Speaker 2: we keep bumping into each other here. Oh, it's a
Speaker 2: pleasure though, appreciate it. Well, you know, the honor is mine.
Speaker 2: Are we going to get a verdict in this case
Speaker 2: this week?
Speaker 3: Oh?
Speaker 6: This week?
Speaker 3: Yes?
Speaker 6: I thought you were going to say today, and I
Speaker 6: was going to say maybe, maybe, not definitely this week.
Speaker 6: If there's not a verdict by this week, then the
Speaker 6: jury is hung and the judge will give them what's
Speaker 6: called I've talked about it before, an Allen charge or
Speaker 6: a dynamite charge, to go back and try to come
Speaker 6: to a decision, you know, think about what other people
Speaker 6: are saying. So but yes, definitely a verdict this week.
Speaker 2: Of course, as we go through the closings here, we're
Speaker 2: reminded of everything that we learned so far, and there's
Speaker 2: been a lot of writing about just how difficult and
Speaker 2: personal this has been for the Biden family. But can
Speaker 2: you bring our listeners back to the table here. They've
Speaker 2: heard a lot about laptops, they've heard a lot about
Speaker 2: business dealings with the Biden family. We're talking about a
Speaker 2: gun case here. It's actually pretty narrow considering some of
Speaker 2: the other allegations and the tax trial that awaits Hunter
Speaker 2: Biden after this.
Speaker 6: It is very narrow. But because the prosecution is saying
Speaker 6: that Hunter Biden was addicted to drugs and so he
Speaker 6: should have filled out this form. It's all about this
Speaker 6: checking this one box on the gun application for in
Speaker 6: the federal form, are you addicted to drugs? Are you
Speaker 6: using drugs? So the prosecution is saying, because of that
Speaker 6: he should have checked that he shouldn't have gotten a gun,
Speaker 6: and the three felony charges all relate to checking that box.
Speaker 6: But the prosecution has brought forth and you mentioned they
Speaker 6: said they had to bring it all. I'm not so
Speaker 6: sure because a lot of it, also, I think, was
Speaker 6: to just dirty up Hunter Biden here to show that
Speaker 6: he was not only addicted to drugs, but he took
Speaker 6: his family and members of his family down with him.
Speaker 6: They called ex wife, they called ex lovers, They talked
Speaker 6: about his drug fueled lifestyle. They showed pictures of him
Speaker 6: half naked with a crack pipe, and they played excerpts
Speaker 6: from his memoir. So a lot of it I think
Speaker 6: was not necessary. And they still don't have any one
Speaker 6: who can say that on the date that he filled
Speaker 6: out that form they saw him taking drugs or there's
Speaker 6: any evidence at on that specific date. There's a break
Speaker 6: with the defense or the defense says they have to
Speaker 6: show that it that he was actually on drugs. Then
Speaker 6: that's what that form seems to indicate. And the form
Speaker 6: is kind of ambiguous, and the prosecution says, no, we
Speaker 6: don't have to show that it was on that date.
Speaker 6: We just have to show that he was a drug user.
Speaker 6: So you know, it's it must be a tough and
Speaker 6: as you mentioned, the first lady was there nearly every day.
Speaker 6: She went one day she flew to France to be
Speaker 6: with the president during the D Day celebrations, and then
Speaker 6: you know, she came back. So there's been a lot
Speaker 6: of family at that at the trial to support Hunter.
Speaker 2: Biden sure has Well, we'll talk again, I know when
Speaker 2: this goes to the jury. But I have to ask
Speaker 2: you as well about Donald Trump's legal journey, which brings
Speaker 2: him into a virtual meeting today. I think if it
Speaker 2: were you and I we'd have to show up in person,
Speaker 2: but a virtual meeting with his probation officer. What is
Speaker 2: the interview going to include.
Speaker 6: Jim, Well, so this is it will be virtual and
Speaker 6: his attorney is going to be present as well, which
Speaker 6: is also not usual for these kind of probation interviews.
Speaker 6: And NBC is reporting just for a little fact that
Speaker 6: it's going to be a female probation officer who's doing
Speaker 6: the interview with him. This I think will be unlike
Speaker 6: any other probation interview because normally what they're doing is
Speaker 6: trying to get background facts. You know, first, is there
Speaker 6: any criminal history, what's your family background? Are their family
Speaker 6: members to support you? You have any addiction issues, any
Speaker 6: physical problems, all those kinds of things that we know,
Speaker 6: and the judgment already knows about Donald Trump. But then
Speaker 6: there's the question of whether he'd be and this is
Speaker 6: sort of an overarching theme amenable to supervision. So does
Speaker 6: he accept the fact that he was you know, that
Speaker 6: he was prosecuted and convicted by a jury, and does
Speaker 6: he accept it and will he follow the rules if
Speaker 6: he is given probation? So there also we know the
Speaker 6: aggravating and mitigating factors, and so does the judge he
Speaker 6: violated the gag order? More than ten times, you know.
Speaker 6: And he has said things you know, back and forth
Speaker 6: about the judge which the judge won't take into account.
Speaker 6: But still it shows that he doesn't does it hasn't
Speaker 6: respected the criminal justice system, as we've seen time and again.
Speaker 6: So I don't think that this is really going to
Speaker 6: be a help to the judge as much as if
Speaker 6: the judge didn't really know him. But the judge knows.
Speaker 6: We all know these different facts about him. So it'll
Speaker 6: be we won't find out unless the defense releases it,
Speaker 6: because it'll be sent to the judge directly, and it
Speaker 6: usually isn't revealed until later.
Speaker 2: Fascinating, and you're right, his lawyer, Todd Blanche will be
Speaker 2: on the call to think it's a zoom meeting. June Grosso,
Speaker 2: great to see you. I'll be listening later, of course,
Speaker 2: the host of Bloomberg Law and Bloomberg Radio six pm
Speaker 2: Eastern time. If you know what's good for you, I've
Speaker 2: got lots of cover every day with June. My goodness.
Speaker 2: As we assembled our panel here, Genie Shanzano's back with us.
Speaker 2: You better believe Democratic analysts Bloomberg Politics contributor, senior Democracy
Speaker 2: fellow with the Center for the Study of the Presidency
Speaker 2: in Congress and Chapein fay Is with a Republican strategist
Speaker 2: managing director at ACTIM. Great to see both of you,
Speaker 2: and thanks for joining Chapin. What do you think about
Speaker 2: the optics here? I don't know if this thing is
Speaker 2: going to go public or not, but I mean, I
Speaker 2: keep hearing nobody cares. I've got a cbsu Go poll
Speaker 2: today says twenty eight percent of likely voters actually will
Speaker 2: consider Donald Trump's conviction to be a major factor in
Speaker 2: their vote. But just the sort of demeaning optics of
Speaker 2: sitting for an interview with a probation officer does it matter?
Speaker 7: I think it matters a little bit, like that poll indicates.
Speaker 7: You know, I think a lot of this stuff is
Speaker 7: baked in. You know, we've been dealing with you know,
Speaker 7: Trump's supporters and voters have been dealing with these allegations
Speaker 7: and investigations for years now. We just went through a trial,
Speaker 7: a very public trial, where he was convicted. He's now
Speaker 7: a convicted felon, and now he has to go me
Speaker 7: with a probation officer.
Speaker 5: You know, I don't know.
Speaker 7: I think they're gonna I think they're gonna, you know,
Speaker 7: still call us around him. You know, I think it's
Speaker 7: already baked in. And and again you're fighting over sort
Speaker 7: of independent voters who still sort of fall down partisan
Speaker 7: lines if they're leaners. Right, if you're thinking about voting
Speaker 7: for President Trump, you don't care that about the conviction,
Speaker 7: and you see this as a political persecution, which Hunt
Speaker 7: if you think, if you're leading Joe Biden, you know,
Speaker 7: it matters a great deal to you that that his
Speaker 7: opponent is a convicted felon. So I think, you know
Speaker 7: it will be demeaning, But I don't know, you know,
Speaker 7: one t you know.
Speaker 2: Matter, Well, Genie, maybe I'm part of the problem here
Speaker 2: because I'm putting these both together into the same conversation.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump, former president of the United States, running for
Speaker 2: a second term, convicted felon meeting with his probation officer,
Speaker 2: versus Hunter Biden, son of Joe Biden, not running for anything,
Speaker 2: facing gun charges in this case, Should they be in
Speaker 2: the same breath.
Speaker 8: No, you're never part of the problem. Joe Matthew just
Speaker 8: part of the solution. So you know, they are part
Speaker 8: of the y. They are part of the same conversation
Speaker 8: because you know, anytime a relative of the sitting president is,
Speaker 8: you know, being investigated or in a trial like Hunter is,
Speaker 8: it's big news. Obviously the same ghost or somebody who's
Speaker 8: leading his party the presumptive nominee. Certainly we all know
Speaker 8: Hunter Biden is not on the ballot. I think one
Speaker 8: of the fascinating things I've witnessed on the Hunter Biden
Speaker 8: and is Donald Trump's reaction to it and the Republican's
Speaker 8: reaction to it. The rhetoric has changed. You know, we
Speaker 8: heard Donald Trump on Fox News a few days ago
Speaker 8: being empathetic to the situation Hunter Biden finds himself in
Speaker 8: as an addict, talking about his own brothers problems with alcoholism.
Speaker 8: You don't hear the Republicans talking as much about negatively
Speaker 8: about Hunter Biden as you did, so I think they
Speaker 8: are cognizant of the fact that so many Americans struggle
Speaker 8: with addiction, that they have not been attacking him in
Speaker 8: the way they were just a few months ago. Could
Speaker 8: that change, absolutely, But I think Democrats still trying to
Speaker 8: make hay out of Donald Trump's conviction, and we see
Speaker 8: the CBS poll around the edges, it has some impact.
Speaker 8: The twenty eight percent you talked about it, gin's up
Speaker 8: the base for Joe Biden. But the reality is people
Speaker 8: care most about the bread and butter issues, and that's
Speaker 8: what Joe Biden needs to focus on.
Speaker 2: Interesting rhetoric, as always, from Donald Trump in Las Vegas
Speaker 2: over the weekend, Chapin. We can talk about his references
Speaker 2: to the January sixth rioters as warriors. We can talk
Speaker 2: about a lot of the things he said about our
Speaker 2: rigged election and the border. But I'm curious your thoughts
Speaker 2: on his decision to show up in Las Vegas and
Speaker 2: propose eliminating taxes on tips, speaking of course to masses
Speaker 2: of people who work in the hospitality industry in Nevada,
Speaker 2: and it resonated with the crowd. Smart politics, of course.
Speaker 7: I mean, anytime you're talking about putting more money in
Speaker 7: people's pockets, it's smart politics.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 7: That's especially when it aligns with, for the previous conversation,
Speaker 7: the main issues that people care about, right, A few
Speaker 7: people care about a few percentage points care about the
Speaker 7: conviction and Trump, and of course a lot of this
Speaker 7: the Democrats are trying to make this campaign referendum on Trump.
Speaker 2: If this were Joe Biden, you'd call it an election
Speaker 2: you're a stunt, wouldn't you Maybe maybe I don't.
Speaker 7: Know, but I don't I don't know. I mean, this
Speaker 7: is something I think if I think, we'd be surprised,
Speaker 7: as some of all. Joe Biden offered this because it's
Speaker 7: you know, the left and Democrats are not usually in
Speaker 7: the habit of putting money back in people's pockets by
Speaker 7: lowering taxes. But again, if if President Biden said he
Speaker 7: was in a lower taxes on you know, hospitality workers,
Speaker 7: I would support that. You know, I may call it
Speaker 7: an election year stunt, but I certainly would support the policy.
Speaker 2: They're not mutually and by the way, the less you know,
Speaker 2: they exactly.
Speaker 7: The last I'll say is, sorry, is everything that happens
Speaker 7: on both sides you'll see from a couple months ago
Speaker 7: through election day is going to be declared a stunt? Anyway.
Speaker 2: Well that's the truth. And I don't know if any
Speaker 2: of that even matters, Genie, But you know, people were
Speaker 2: calling this just forgiving student loans an election year stunt.
Speaker 2: They've called the President's boarder executive action and an election
Speaker 2: year stunt, even if they agree with the policy. It's
Speaker 2: interesting here does Donald Trump have something to run on.
Speaker 8: You know, it is something. I mean, we are going
Speaker 8: to be debating taxes twenty twenty four, twenty twenty five,
Speaker 8: in particular in Washington, d C. So this is a
Speaker 8: policy that you know, could find its way into the conversation,
Speaker 8: and I think there's going to be some pushback on it, certainly,
Speaker 8: But this is the reality of election year politicking. And
Speaker 8: at this point, I'm thinking most Americans who want to
Speaker 8: break on anything should consider moving to these six or
Speaker 8: seven swing states because if you're living outside of those,
Speaker 8: you're not going to get much action on any of this.
Speaker 8: But move there and you get all of these kinds
Speaker 8: of things dangling. So, you know, this is the reality
Speaker 8: of our election system, which probably needs to be reconsidered.
Speaker 8: But this is where we are.
Speaker 2: Today, Philly, Wisconsin, Michigan, money falling from the skies. It
Speaker 2: does make us think though of this idea of you know,
Speaker 2: the union vote being up for grabs in this election,
Speaker 2: Genie and Chape, and it's something that we're not done
Speaker 2: talking about here. Even as Joe Biden calls himself the
Speaker 2: most union friendly president in American history, We've seen Donald
Speaker 2: Trump do very well with the rank and file. We're
Speaker 2: just getting started on the fastest show in politics. I'm
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Evocarplay and then
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Speaker 9: I am indeed Kaylee lines back in Washington after a
Speaker 9: weekend away, and Donald Trump also was elsewhere this weekend.
Speaker 9: Joe and Las Vegas held a big rally in what
Speaker 9: I understand was pretty incredible. Heat indeed had a specific
Speaker 9: pitch to all of the hospitality workers that inhabit the
Speaker 9: state of Nevada. No taxes on tipped income is what
Speaker 9: he was pitching.
Speaker 2: Pitching I guess on behalf of Congress, because you'd have
Speaker 2: to have legislation there. But I guess it all feeds
Speaker 2: back into the twenty seventeen tax cuts becoming permanent, an
Speaker 2: argument that will be had here certainly if Donald Trump
Speaker 2: is elected to another term. But yeah, this is interesting.
Speaker 2: This is the stuff that is frequently referred to as
Speaker 2: an election year stunt, but it's one that certainly resonated
Speaker 2: with the crowd. And when you consider the importance of
Speaker 2: the culinary your workers' union on the Las Vegas Strip
Speaker 2: that Joe Biden needs to win over to take that state,
Speaker 2: it's pretty shrewd. He also took a stand and on
Speaker 2: a Senate race while he was there, So we've got
Speaker 2: a lot to talk about on the campaign trail.
Speaker 9: And did we do what you're referring to Trump endorsing
Speaker 9: retired Army Captain Sam Brown for the Senate race in
Speaker 9: Nevada over his former ambassador to isolate Jeff Gunter really
Speaker 9: interesting to.
Speaker 2: See in the establishment move I'm not sure I want
Speaker 2: to hear more about this. We learned so much by
Speaker 2: talking to Aaron Kovey last week here on Bloomberg from
Speaker 2: the Cook Political Report, we wanted to bring her back
Speaker 2: today and get into this. Contributing author to the twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four Almanac of American Politics, Erin, It's great to
Speaker 2: see you. I wonder if we could start here on
Speaker 2: this one. Donald Trump, obviously, if he's reelected, can't just
Speaker 2: eliminate taxes on tips. But the way this seemed to
Speaker 2: resonate with the crowd makes me wonder if this could
Speaker 2: be an effective campaign message for him. Will we hear
Speaker 2: about this for the rest of the cycle.
Speaker 10: Hey, well, thanks for having me on.
Speaker 9: You know, I don't know.
Speaker 10: It seems like this is an issue that is kind
Speaker 10: of specific to Nevada voters, which obviously won't matter heading
Speaker 10: into twenty twenty four. Nevada is obviously one of the
Speaker 10: swing states that we'll be watching closely that could determine
Speaker 10: the election, but it is one state where Trump has
Speaker 10: been doing a lot better in polling. Biden narrowly won
Speaker 10: this state in twenty twenty. Clinton narrowly wanted in twenty
Speaker 10: sixteen by a slightly larger margin, and so this is
Speaker 10: one state that could certainly be an impact.
Speaker 9: Yeah, And of course, to your point, it is a
Speaker 9: state that we will get some insight into with the
Speaker 9: results from primaries tomorrow. One of those primary races, of course,
Speaker 9: is for this Senate race. Aaron, and I wonder what
Speaker 9: you make of the endorsement that Trump gave to Sam Brown,
Speaker 9: the aforementioned retired Army captain, over someone that was part
Speaker 9: of his administration as an ambassador to Iceland. What is
Speaker 9: this signal about the Trump endorsement and the way in
Speaker 9: which it may be changing in this election cycle relative
Speaker 9: to the past ones we have seen.
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's an interesting question. You know, Trump has been
Speaker 10: very involved in the previous races and Republican primaries. I
Speaker 10: think he's been a little less involved in endorsing down
Speaker 10: ballot candidates this site relative to previous cycles. But I
Speaker 10: would say as a whole, some of those endorsements have
Speaker 10: been a little more I guess disciplined would be the
Speaker 10: right word for it, compared to previous cycles. Sam Brown
Speaker 10: was the pick of Republican Senate leaders. They believe he
Speaker 10: is the best position to take on Jackie Rosen in
Speaker 10: the Senate race this November, and so you know, this
Speaker 10: was an endorsement that I think, you know, was kind
Speaker 10: of up for grabs, definitely. Like you said earlier, Jeffrey Gunter,
Speaker 10: the former ambassador at Iceland, was also running. Obviously a
Speaker 10: member of the Trump administration previously and had his own
Speaker 10: connection to the Trump world. But I think this shows
Speaker 10: that Trump is a little more aligned, maybe with the
Speaker 10: Republican establishment than he has been in previous races.
Speaker 2: Well, that's that's a really important part of the story,
Speaker 2: because you know, he was supposed to roll out this
Speaker 2: endorsement at the rally, he hardly mentioned Sam Brown and
Speaker 2: then shows up on truth Social late at night talking
Speaker 2: about this fearless and Maria Sek and Patriot his pure
Speaker 2: grit encouraged to take on our enemies, he write, both
Speaker 2: foreign and domestic. So did somebody get to Donald Trump?
Speaker 2: Did he get a phone call from Steve Danes? What
Speaker 2: happened on Sunday?
Speaker 10: You know, I don't have any inside information on that specifically,
Speaker 10: but you know, I think it's important to also note
Speaker 10: that Sam Brown was already favored to win this race.
Speaker 10: He's the only one who is really spending a significant
Speaker 10: amount of money, has a huge advantage over the other
Speaker 10: candidates as far as fundraising goes, and also ran for
Speaker 10: Senate last cycle, and so already had a bit of
Speaker 10: a base to draw from. And so I think, you know,
Speaker 10: Brown was favored from the get go, and this kind
Speaker 10: of semen's his status as the favorite.
Speaker 9: So we'll be watching to see what happens in Nevada tomorrow.
Speaker 9: There's other races, though, that we are watching closely arin
Speaker 9: including in South Carolina Congressman Nancy Mace facing a primary challenge.
Speaker 9: She has been an interesting figure in the House of Representatives.
Speaker 9: She of course is one who voted for the ouster
Speaker 9: for Speaker Kevin McCarthy last year. How vulnerable is she?
Speaker 10: Yeah, So throughout this cycle, McCarthy has been on a
Speaker 10: bit of a revenge tour. He obviously had a little
Speaker 10: more time on his hands now that he's no longer
Speaker 10: in the House, and he's been supporting challengers to the
Speaker 10: eight Republican members who ousted him last year. Now, Mace,
Speaker 10: I think was kind of in a unique position because
Speaker 10: she had previously been an ally of McCarthy, and McCarthy
Speaker 10: and his allies had spent significantly to help her in
Speaker 10: previous races. She'd faced competitive primaries competitive general elections before,
Speaker 10: so she is no stranger to tough races. But now
Speaker 10: she has McCarthy's political operation going against her. I believe
Speaker 10: up to five million has now been spent against her
Speaker 10: in that primary, and for Catherine Templeton, who is a
Speaker 10: former member of Nicki Haley's administration, who is challenging Mace
Speaker 10: and is the one that McCarthy is supporting. But I
Speaker 10: will note that Mace does have the endorsement of Trump here,
Speaker 10: which I think kind of took the wind out of
Speaker 10: Templeton's sales that happened a couple of months ago, and
Speaker 10: so I think most folks I've talked to in the
Speaker 10: state believe that she is favored to win this primary,
Speaker 10: but could feel a little closer than she wants it
Speaker 10: to be.
Speaker 2: Indeed, what are the odds that this goes to a runoff?
Speaker 4: You know?
Speaker 10: I think most likely it doesn't. There is a third
Speaker 10: candidate on the ballot, and so in South Carolina, if
Speaker 10: no one gets fifty percent of the vote, that means
Speaker 10: the top two finishers will go to a runoff two
Speaker 10: weeks from now. I think most folks I've talked to
Speaker 10: think that Mace probably will hit that threshold and be fine,
Speaker 10: but certainly a chance.
Speaker 9: It's interesting to talk about, or consider the idea that
Speaker 9: Nancy Mace does have the endorsement of Donald Trump, despite
Speaker 9: being one of the one to move to oust Kevin
Speaker 9: McCarthy last year, a number of others, though including some
Speaker 9: in the House Freedom Caucus, or not receiving the same
Speaker 9: support from Donald Trump. In fact, he is vocally endorsed
Speaker 9: Virginia State Senator John maguire, who was primary Bob Good,
Speaker 9: the chair of the Freedom Caucus in Virginia, And there
Speaker 9: was reporting today from Punchbowl the idea that a lot
Speaker 9: of members of the Freedom Caucus are quite unhappy with
Speaker 9: the decisions Trump is making in regard to his endorsements.
Speaker 9: I realized this comes back to a certain degree to
Speaker 9: the question I began with Aaron, this idea that maybe
Speaker 9: the Trump endorsement is changing from say what it was
Speaker 9: in twenty twenty two when a lot of the candidates
Speaker 9: that he decided to back ultimately did not win their races.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think that's right, and he certainly reveled some
Speaker 10: feathers in the Freedom Caucus wing of the party. You know,
Speaker 10: Bob Good is in a kind of uniquely difficult position
Speaker 10: because he has drawn the ir both of Trump and
Speaker 10: then for endorsing the stances that was kind of what
Speaker 10: originally started this rift back last year. But he also
Speaker 10: has made an enemy of McCarthy by voting to oust
Speaker 10: him last year. And so you have McCarthy's political operations
Speaker 10: spending heavily in support of McGuire, and again it's good.
Speaker 10: And then on top of that, you have Trump and
Speaker 10: some of his allies also backing McGuire, and so that
Speaker 10: endorsement is now of course, all over the airwaves, McGuire
Speaker 10: has a pretty significant advantage on TV at this point. Now,
Speaker 10: you know, I've seen polling that shows Good eching a
Speaker 10: out a win. Ultimately, I've seen pulling that shows McGuire ahead.
Speaker 10: So I think this is really going to be a
Speaker 10: jump ball next week. But I think it's fair to
Speaker 10: say that Good is probably the most vulnerable Republican incumbent
Speaker 10: in a primary com pair to folks like Mace. And
Speaker 10: then there are a couple of other members, incumbent members
Speaker 10: who have been critics of the House bredem Caucus who
Speaker 10: Trump has also endorsed. So that's William Timmins in South
Speaker 10: Carolina also has a primary tomorrow from Adam Morgan, who
Speaker 10: is actually the chairman of South Carolina's House Freedom Caucus
Speaker 10: and has a lot of grassroots support in that district.
Speaker 10: This is an upstate excuse me, upstate South Carolina, And
Speaker 10: so I know that is one race where he has
Speaker 10: the support of a lot of folks on the ground
Speaker 10: and the more conservative wing of the party, and people
Speaker 10: are not happy with Trump for endorsing Timmins.
Speaker 9: All right, erin great to have you back on balance
Speaker 9: of power. Aeron Kobe of the Kok Political Report, where
Speaker 9: she's an analyst. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can
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Speaker 2: As we return to Shuttle diplomacy for the Secretary of
Speaker 2: State Anthony Blincoln, now making his eighth trip to the
Speaker 2: Middle East since the seventh of October. I'm Joe Matthew
Speaker 2: alongside Kaylee Lines here in Washington, and Kaylee, we're looking
Speaker 2: for results. These trips have obviously come now number eight here,
Speaker 2: but the breakthroughs have been difficult for the Secretary of
Speaker 2: State to find it. In fact, sometimes it's a bigger
Speaker 2: headline when the CIA Director Bill Burns shows up and
Speaker 2: clutter to move the ball, and you start wondering what
Speaker 2: the value of these trips can.
Speaker 9: Be, well, especially when the trip's point so many of
Speaker 9: them have been to push for another temporary ceasefire agreement
Speaker 9: that to this point has not yet come to fruition.
Speaker 9: Time and again the Secretary of State has traveled to
Speaker 9: the Middle East only to return essentially empty handed, without
Speaker 9: anything ultra tangible that he can point to, because still
Speaker 9: no ceasfire has been put into place.
Speaker 2: Yeah, some interesting headlines over the weekend. Of course, we
Speaker 2: saw the rescue of four hostages, but it came at
Speaker 2: a high cost for Israeli hostages. Israel says its forces
Speaker 2: killed around one hundred Palestinians. The Hamas run Health Ministry
Speaker 2: says it actually was in the area of two hundred
Speaker 2: and seventy Kayley. So this balancing act continues, and you're
Speaker 2: right there are questions about in the particularly the wake
Speaker 2: of Benny Gantz stepping down from the Work Cabinet, whether
Speaker 2: we're further away now from a ceasefire than we were
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 9: Well, that's a question we want to pose now to
Speaker 9: Jonathan Panakoff, who was joining US director of the Scowcroft
Speaker 9: Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program,
Speaker 9: also former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Near East
Speaker 9: at the National Intelligence Council. Jonathan, always great to have
Speaker 9: you here. On balance of power, I wonder, to Joe's point,
Speaker 9: what you make of the events that have taken place
Speaker 9: over the weekend and what it translates to terms of
Speaker 9: likelihood of a temporary cease fire deal going into place.
Speaker 9: Does the release of four hostages, or rather the rescue
Speaker 9: of them, put more pressure on the net and Yahoo
Speaker 9: government to agree to something that would allow for the
Speaker 9: release of dozens more, or does it do the opposite.
Speaker 5: Thanks so much for having me. Great to be with
Speaker 5: you as always. I think actually it may unfortunately have
Speaker 5: the opposite effect, obviously unintended as a consequence, but the
Speaker 5: reality is you have from a number of folks on
Speaker 5: the right in Lakuta and Israel and some of the ultranationalists,
Speaker 5: folks like Ben Gervere and Smotrich who have been saying no,
Speaker 5: there should be absolutely no deal with Hamas. We should
Speaker 5: keep going and conduct the war until it's concluded and
Speaker 5: Hamas is destroyed. And yes, we can at the same
Speaker 5: time also deal with the primary objective of rescuing the hostages.
Speaker 5: I think that's obviously a fallacy, to be totally honest.
Speaker 5: It's eight months in and the number of hostages is
Speaker 5: what's been able to rescue is well under ten. But
Speaker 5: the reality is now what we're seeing is I think
Speaker 5: that'll give life to this idea and some credence to it.
Speaker 5: Given understandable jubilation in Israel over the rescue of these
Speaker 5: hostages over the weekend.
Speaker 2: Well, so do you expect to see further raids like this?
Speaker 2: And with each one does a ceasefire become more difficult?
Speaker 5: I don't know that a ceasfire becomes more difficult. I
Speaker 5: mean I will think, look, any country, and there's certainly
Speaker 5: any Western democratic country that's had hostages for eight months
Speaker 5: will try to rescue them if it's a possibility. But
Speaker 5: just to rescue these four took weeks, if not probably
Speaker 5: months from what I'm hearing of planning. Obviously you're not
Speaker 5: going to be able to rescue the remaining sixty seventy
Speaker 5: eighty hostages. However many are actually left alive right now
Speaker 5: through rage like this, It would take years upon years,
Speaker 5: and so I don't think it changes the calculus of
Speaker 5: the need for some sort of negotiated hostage release for
Speaker 5: prisoner swap. But I do think it certainly creates a
Speaker 5: situation where Sinwar now has an excuse again through propaganda
Speaker 5: of saying how many were killed to say no there's
Speaker 5: no reason for me to negotiate. Look what Israel is
Speaker 5: doing and that can complicate things right now.
Speaker 9: Yeah, the ratio is certainly something to consider.
Speaker 7: Here.
Speaker 9: You save four, but nearly three hundred lives, according to Hamas,
Speaker 9: were lost in the process. So it comes back to
Speaker 9: what the Secretary of State is really going to be
Speaker 9: accomplishing on this trip, Jonathan. If you think actually the
Speaker 9: likelihood of a ceasefire agreement being reached in the near
Speaker 9: term is now less than it was, is Anthony Anthony
Speaker 9: blinkoln going to walk away with nothing again? Is this
Speaker 9: getting a little bit embarrassing diplomatically for the United States?
Speaker 5: Oh? Look, I think it's never a bad thing to
Speaker 5: try when you're in a war and you're in a crisis.
Speaker 5: In the US, story remains probably the only country that
Speaker 5: may be able to have some influence on the Israeli side,
Speaker 5: though I think it's less, frankly, as we're seeing than
Speaker 5: everybody has thought it might be in the region. I
Speaker 5: think it's always worth trying to create a ceasefire and
Speaker 5: get to a stage of peace. That said, I'm not
Speaker 5: particularly optimistic. I do think right now this is about sinwar.
Speaker 5: Hamas for a long time now has been viewed as
Speaker 5: a monolithic organization, and I think that's wrong. There's money,
Speaker 5: fat fragments of Hamas, some of the political ones in
Speaker 5: Gazas and the political ones in Doha. The reality is, though,
Speaker 5: the only person that matters when it comes to mass
Speaker 5: right now is ya Ya Sinoir, and for him, there's
Speaker 5: not a lot of benefit to agreeing to a ceaspire
Speaker 5: and if he doesn't agree to a ceasefire, well then
Speaker 5: there's no pressure for NAT and Yahoo to ultimately agree
Speaker 5: to one either, because Hamas has to go first at
Speaker 5: this stage. That's what the pressure from the Biden administration
Speaker 5: was about. I think Secretary Blincoln is trying to emphasize
Speaker 5: that for his regions, for his travels throughout the regent,
Speaker 5: including in Egypt. We'll see what happens, but obviously I
Speaker 5: think we're not nearly as optimistic as a lot of
Speaker 5: folks were when the President originally gave his speech two
Speaker 5: weeks ago.
Speaker 2: Well, what that said, Jonathan. The US is asking the
Speaker 2: United Nations Security Council for a vote on its latest
Speaker 2: resolution here for a ceasefire in Gaza. What impact, if any,
Speaker 2: would that have?
Speaker 5: Look, I think you could again increase the pressure and
Speaker 5: try to compel anybody who might have influence on Hamas
Speaker 5: to try and pressure Sinhoar. But the reality is it's
Speaker 5: probably not going to have much of an impact. I
Speaker 5: think it's always good when the world speaks in a
Speaker 5: unified voice, and I think we've seen that in smaller form.
Speaker 5: So the G seven statement supporting President Biden's initiative, the
Speaker 5: arra Quinn statement supporting the President's initiative, obviously additional momentum.
Speaker 5: Keeping it in the headlines is always important, but in
Speaker 5: terms of actual impact, I think it's probably going to
Speaker 5: be minimal in the end.
Speaker 9: Jonathan, we also want to make sure to ask you
Speaker 9: about the departure of Anny Gance from the Israeli government.
Speaker 9: On the one hand, of course, it was in part
Speaker 9: protest to Prime Minister Netanyah, who's handling of the war.
Speaker 9: On the other hand, what this leaves in the war
Speaker 9: cabinet is much greater influence, perhaps of the far right.
Speaker 9: Considering Gance was a moderate. What should we make of
Speaker 9: his departure and the difference it will make going forward
Speaker 9: in Israel's conduct in this ongoing war.
Speaker 5: It's a great question. The reality is this has been
Speaker 5: a long time comic. Both Gance and you have Galant,
Speaker 5: the Defense Minister, who is part of the Work Cabinet,
Speaker 5: have been arguing for months there needs to be from
Speaker 5: NETANYAHUO a post war plan for Gaza. Obviously, the international
Speaker 5: community and the US has prioritized the Palestinian authority playing
Speaker 5: a major role. Netanyah who said no to that. And
Speaker 5: so if the answers no to that, what is the
Speaker 5: actual plan? And that's not clear yet, And that frustration
Speaker 5: is what led Benny Gantz to decide we can't do
Speaker 5: this anymore and take his party out and for himself
Speaker 5: to leave the Work Cabinet. Whether it's actually going to happen.
Speaker 2: Is it a cabinet of too then what happens?
Speaker 5: Yeah? So look, the Work Cabinet had six members, only
Speaker 5: three were voting. You've got two options. One is that
Speaker 5: who can replace Benny Gantz? Obviously ultra nationalists like Ben
Speaker 5: Gavern's Motrich have both said they want the seat. I
Speaker 5: think that's unlikely to happen. I thinkna who knows that
Speaker 5: it's probably suicidal for him with the international community given
Speaker 5: and how toxic those two are, I think he could
Speaker 5: replace them with a Lukud member and somebody who's been
Speaker 5: more loyal, or he could decide he's going to disband
Speaker 5: the work cabinet, but all of these at risks. If
Speaker 5: he disbands the work cabinet, then you're in jeopardy of
Speaker 5: every major decision related to the war having to go
Speaker 5: to the full cabinet. And if it goes to the
Speaker 5: full cabinet, well, once again the ultra nationalists are there
Speaker 5: who are pushing not only for an opportunity to push
Speaker 5: harder against Hamas and eliminate Hamas, but have been very
Speaker 5: clear they want settlements to return of Israelis to Gaza,
Speaker 5: they want to be able to push further into the
Speaker 5: West Bank. And you're talking about something that's likely to
Speaker 5: actually increase tensions at a time where I think everybody
Speaker 5: recognizes the need for them to come down a little.
Speaker 9: Bit, especially Jonathan considering it's not just tensions between Israel
Speaker 9: and Hamas, but in the wider Middle East that could
Speaker 9: potentially be amplified from this. Knowing prior to October seventh,
Speaker 9: there was an effort underway for Saudi normalization, and effort
Speaker 9: that obviously was disrupted by the events of that day.
Speaker 9: Everything that has happened thereafter. Yet that is also something
Speaker 9: that the US is pushing and I'm sure is on
Speaker 9: the mind of Anthony Blinkn as he makes this latest
Speaker 9: trip to the Middle East. How should we be considering
Speaker 9: the Saudi factor.
Speaker 5: Look, the Saudi normalization deal has been on the table
Speaker 5: for a while. I think in the immediate aftermath of
Speaker 5: October seventh, there was a contention by some that now
Speaker 5: normalizations off the table. The reality is, Saudi normalization with
Speaker 5: Israel is about one thing, and it's not Israel. It's
Speaker 5: about US security guarantees and US engagement with Saudi Arabia
Speaker 5: over the long term. Saudi Arabia is desperate to try
Speaker 5: and redefine their economy and to have a Vision twenty
Speaker 5: thirty actually implement it, and that means to move away
Speaker 5: from hydrocarbons. The only way Saudi Arabia is going to
Speaker 5: be able to successfully diversify their economy is to ensure
Speaker 5: their security is sacricynct. And to do that you either
Speaker 5: need to have really good relations with everybody in the region,
Speaker 5: something hard to imagine even with the reproachment with Iran,
Speaker 5: or you need some sort of umbrella protection. There's not
Speaker 5: enough political risk insurance in the world to ensure Saudi's
Speaker 5: domestic goals are met if the reality is you've got
Speaker 5: houthy rockets, Iranian rockets in the future going down on
Speaker 5: Saudi Arabia. And so for the Biden administration, this has
Speaker 5: been a key issue because they think this would transform
Speaker 5: the region if you had Saudi analyization with Israel. I
Speaker 5: think it probably would. But my guess is time is
Speaker 5: also running out right now to get that passed through
Speaker 5: the Senate. You would need a treaty to be able
Speaker 5: to do that. As we head to an election season
Speaker 5: here in the US, I just think it's becoming less
Speaker 5: and less likely. They're going to keep trying, but I
Speaker 5: think it's harder to envision it coming to fruition in
Speaker 5: the next six months, seven months before the new administration
Speaker 5: takes over.
Speaker 2: Hey, Jonathan, we only have one minute. I have to
Speaker 2: ask you about this Axios report talking about a warning
Speaker 2: from the Biden administration to Israel about opening a new front,
Speaker 2: about waging war, committing to a war against Hesbolah. Is
Speaker 2: this something that's about to happen? Knowing that Israel has
Speaker 2: not listened to a lot of advice from the US, recently.
Speaker 5: I'm increasingly concerned that it is. Six months ago, I
Speaker 5: really didn't think it would happen. Israel didn't want it.
Speaker 5: Hesbol almost certainly doesn't want it. Iran doesn't want it.
Speaker 5: But the rocket attacks that have been coming from Hezbolah,
Speaker 5: the drone attacks. Hesbollah said today they intercepted in Israeli
Speaker 5: drone on the other side, I think we're increasingly likely
Speaker 5: to see some sort of conflict if it sparks, because
Speaker 5: it's Israeli instigated. I think that's going to be a
Speaker 5: real challenge for the Biden administration, who said that they're
Speaker 5: not going to support Israel in such a war. If
Speaker 5: it's from Hesbola, that's story. But the most likely scenario
Speaker 5: is that something sparks, becovers of an unintended escalation, a
Speaker 5: back and forth with the rockets that gets out of hand. Look,
Speaker 5: it's not guaranteed. Almost Hostein is working very very hard
Speaker 5: to get the Hesbarala Rodwong special Forces away from the
Speaker 5: Israel Lebanon border. But I think the chances of war
Speaker 5: are dramatically increasing right now.
Speaker 2: Well, Jonathan, is great to have you back. Jonathan Panacoff,
Speaker 2: Director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the
Speaker 2: Atlantic Council's Middle East Program. Thank you for joining in
Speaker 2: great insights today on Balance of Power. Thanks for listening
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