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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 2: The tenth of June. Can you believe it? It's going

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Speaker 2: quick and this is the breather, the moment for Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden to regroup before the next big stop on the

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Speaker 2: international tour, coming off of his trip to France last week.

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Speaker 2: We talked about it a lot, marking the eightieth anniversary

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Speaker 2: of the D Day invasion, important meetings with President Zelenski,

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Speaker 2: with Emmanuel Macron, and now it's onto the G seven.

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Speaker 2: All of this with the weekend in between, that was

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Speaker 2: quite newsy from Israel to EU elections. And that's where

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Speaker 2: we start our conversation with Josh Wingrove, Blueberg White House

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Speaker 2: correspondent back on the beat today and joining us from

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Speaker 2: the North lawn of the White House. If you're with

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Speaker 2: us on YouTube, it's great to see you, Josh. Thanks

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Speaker 2: for joining. What are the next couple of days look

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Speaker 2: like for Joe Biden? As he prepares for the G seven.

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Speaker 2: The stakes seem to be rising even as he makes

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Speaker 2: his way toward this trip.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Joe, good afternoon. He'll come back later today. He

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Speaker 3: has a Juneteenth concert here this evening. But all eyes

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Speaker 3: really are going to be on that trip later in

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Speaker 3: the week, and whether they can sort of make headway,

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Speaker 3: in particular on the question of seized Russian assets and

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Speaker 3: is there any way to essentially monetize them somehow to

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Speaker 3: get Ukraine billions in aid sooner rather than sort of

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Speaker 3: waiting for these processes to drag out. There's been a

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Speaker 3: lot of disagreement on that, but it seems like they've

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Speaker 3: come to some sort of agreement. President Biden saying over

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Speaker 3: the weekend after a meeting with French President Emmanuel mccarnel

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Speaker 3: that he the two had discussed and they'd come to

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Speaker 3: some sort of understanding. So we'll be looking at that.

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Speaker 3: And in some ways this is because this G seven

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Speaker 3: is poised to maybe change quite a bit. The elections

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Speaker 3: that we had in Europe, of course, have sent a

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Speaker 3: signal both in France and Germany about voter moods there.

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Speaker 3: We've got elections in the UK later this year in

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Speaker 3: the US, maybe one in Canada and the next year

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Speaker 3: or so, so a lot of change maybe becoming a

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Speaker 3: lot of these leaders might be swapping out. Of course,

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump is looming in the offing, and they can

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Speaker 3: sort of stock the cupboard a little bit on Ukraine

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Speaker 3: aid that will sort of, you know, maybe tie the

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Speaker 3: hands a little bit of or try to people that

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Speaker 3: come after. So you might call this a little bit

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Speaker 3: of Trump proofing maybe, But of course Biden wouldn't see

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Speaker 3: it that way because he intends on being here in

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Speaker 3: a second term, so he would dispute that nstrualization.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, tell me more about the seizon of

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Speaker 2: Russian assets or more of the caching in of Russian

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Speaker 2: assets and sending that money to Ukraine. Because the President

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Speaker 2: signed into law something called the Repo Act and got

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Speaker 2: a lot of debate here on Capitol Hill, and the

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Speaker 2: anale is that that's great, but most of the money

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Speaker 2: is in Europe, and so we can't do a lot

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Speaker 2: without the cooperation of our European allies. Does that begin

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Speaker 2: to clarify at this G seven?

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Speaker 3: We think so, although the exact terms remain unclear, and

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Speaker 3: it might not necessarily be clear by the time the

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Speaker 3: G seven wraps up and the issue their communicator, but

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Speaker 3: it looks like that communicate will have at least a

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Speaker 3: top line commitment to something. The latest plan has been

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Speaker 3: revolving around the either the US alone or the US

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Speaker 3: and some other countries offering tens of billions in funding

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Speaker 3: as a loan to Ukraine securitized essentially by these holdings.

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Speaker 3: Now the math on that gets complicated, the rules get complicated,

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Speaker 3: and whether that's going to Congress or not, what guarantees

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Speaker 3: Europe can legally provide when they've got six month renewals

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Speaker 3: of sanctions. It's messy, but it seems like they're getting somewhere. Essentially,

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Speaker 3: this has been the US pressing to do something and

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Speaker 3: the Europeans being hesitant for a range of reasons, among

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Speaker 3: them legal ones, and of well, if we sort of

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Speaker 3: tie up these assets by some sort of complex funding

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Speaker 3: model and then we need to release them as part

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Speaker 3: of say a peace deal, where does that leave us.

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Speaker 3: So it does look like they're going to have progress

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Speaker 3: on this one. That's a real top line. Another one, Joe,

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Speaker 3: that we're watching for some action on China. We saw

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Speaker 3: that with the G seven finance ministers in their meeting.

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Speaker 3: We think that the leaders will sort of sing a

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Speaker 3: United tune when it comes to warning about China overcapacity

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Speaker 3: and the risk of Beijing essentially dumping its way to

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Speaker 3: an economic recovery. So we'll be watching for that as well.

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Speaker 3: But those are the big ones, I think broadly, though,

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Speaker 3: it's just going to be a show of unity. Is

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Speaker 3: echoing some of the themes we saw last week with

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Speaker 3: the President's D Day visit, and some of those that

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Speaker 3: I expect to see a month or so here in

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Speaker 3: Washington at the NATO summit.

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Speaker 2: Just in our last minute here, Josh, the President's also

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Speaker 2: got Benjaminett Yahoo on the line, presumably the Secretary of State.

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Speaker 2: Back in the Middle East here, I believe it's trip

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Speaker 2: number eight, and there are questions about whether we are

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Speaker 2: further away now from a ceasefire than we were before

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Speaker 2: these hostages were rescued over the weekend in a raid

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Speaker 2: included the deaths of more than two hundred Palestinians.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, right now, it's up in the air where that's

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Speaker 3: gonna Where the US views things right now. They have

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Speaker 3: always said that they are waiting sort of on a

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Speaker 3: formal response from hamas like a written response on the

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Speaker 3: offer that Biden outlined about ten days or so ago.

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Speaker 3: We just don't know. Typically before trips we do get

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Speaker 3: briefings on this. Probably the National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan

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Speaker 3: would be a candidate to do that. So if he

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Speaker 3: is to speak to the press or speak publicly before

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Speaker 3: this trip to the G seven, I'm sure, of course

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Speaker 3: Top of Mind will be the latest on this. So

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Speaker 3: we're waiting and seeing, but this remains a fraught one,

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Speaker 3: of course.

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Speaker 2: Joe, Josh. Great to have you, as always, Josh Wingrove,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg White House correspondent with us from the White House

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Speaker 2: on a sunny Monday here in Washington as the President

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Speaker 2: gets back to it in advance of the G seven,

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Speaker 2: and we add the voice now of Christopher Smart, a

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Speaker 2: conversation we've been looking forward to with a voice of experience.

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Speaker 2: He's managing partner of our growth the Strategic Advisory forman

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Speaker 2: was senior economic advisor in the Obama White House. Christopher,

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Speaker 2: we just wrapped a conversation with Josh Wingrove talking about

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Speaker 2: a very dangerous world that Joe Biden is operating in

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Speaker 2: at the moment, and I love to start with you

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Speaker 2: on Israel and your thoughts on what was quite a

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Speaker 2: weekend here with not only the mission to rescue hostages,

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Speaker 2: but Benny Gant's decision to step down. Is a cease

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Speaker 2: fire suddenly on the back burner.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think it is, at least for the next

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Speaker 4: two days and maybe weeks. It's always an understatement to

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Speaker 4: talk about Israel the Middle East in general and say

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Speaker 4: it's complicated, but it did. It has gotten more complicated

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Speaker 4: over the weekend as you as you describe. I think

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Speaker 4: the ironic thing is everybody knows how this process needs

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Speaker 4: to start, and everybody knows how this process needs to end,

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Speaker 4: but it's very difficult to know how to get from

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Speaker 4: the beginning to the end. The beginning obviously has to

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Speaker 4: be a ceasefire, and I think it's been pushed back

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Speaker 4: maybe a matter of days, maybe a matter of weeks,

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Speaker 4: just in the in the events over the weekend.

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Speaker 2: The process needs to end.

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Speaker 4: I think in a grand agreement that is sort of

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Speaker 4: part of everybody's talking points. That would include Palestinian governance

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Speaker 4: that does not include Hamas that it would include a

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Speaker 4: more centrist Israeli government. It would include importantly Saudi recognition

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Speaker 4: of Israel, which would create a regional buy in to

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Speaker 4: a peace process. And then lastly, you know, what's very

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Speaker 4: easy to say and very difficult to implement, is a

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Speaker 4: two state solution for this for Israel, Israelis and Palestinians. It's,

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Speaker 4: as I say, it's very easy to say, very easy

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Speaker 4: to describe, and I think it's very easy to get

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Speaker 4: buy in all around for that end point, but it

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Speaker 4: is a very big question about how we get from

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Speaker 4: here to there.

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Speaker 2: The US asking the UN Security Council now to vote

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Speaker 2: on this latest resolution for a cease fire in Gaza,

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Speaker 2: does that mean anything to Benjamin that Yahoo.

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure it means anything to Benjamin that Yahoo,

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Speaker 4: But I do think it means something more broadly to

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Speaker 4: an Israeli political class that sees itself much more isolated

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Speaker 4: in the world, that sees the endgame in Gaza as

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Speaker 4: much more complicated. You know, for example, what does it

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Speaker 4: really mean to get Hamas completely out of Gaza. That's

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Speaker 4: a very difficult thing to describe and to to.

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Speaker 2: Plan for the day after.

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Speaker 4: What it does do, importantly, I think for President Biden

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Speaker 4: it allows him to go to the G seven meetings

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Speaker 4: later this week much close, much more closely aligned with

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Speaker 4: Europeans and the Japanese Prime Minister for pushing this, pushing

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Speaker 4: a cease fire forward, And I think that's very helpful

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Speaker 4: for him and should be helpful for getting us to

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Speaker 4: that next step in Israel.

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Speaker 2: I wonder your thoughts, Christopher on now eighth trip, an

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Speaker 2: eighth tour through the Middle East by Secretary of State

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Speaker 2: Anthony Blinken. Is this helpful? Is he helping to bridge

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Speaker 2: the gap? Does that presence mean something? Or is he

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Speaker 2: somehow lowering the value of these trips by going so often?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think he's got a long way to go

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Speaker 4: to catch up with Henry Kissinger in his Middle East diplomacy.

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Speaker 4: But I think these meetings are very important because the

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Speaker 4: very fact that the US Secretary of State continues to

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Speaker 4: talk to all sides, continues to bring messages back and forth,

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Speaker 4: continues to look for where there may be wiggle room,

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Speaker 4: where there may be room for the beginnings of an agreement.

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Speaker 4: These things are never sort of completely baked and agreed.

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Speaker 4: You have to kind of find a path forward and

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Speaker 4: find a moment where a potential partial temporary agreements may

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Speaker 4: fall into place that allows you to build on something

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Speaker 4: stronger and more lasting. But I think it is very

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Speaker 4: important for him to continue these trips, and I don't

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Speaker 4: think they lose value the more he is in age.

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Speaker 2: Well, as Joe Biden prepares for the G seven later

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Speaker 2: this week, the headline from over the weekend and EU

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Speaker 2: elections says it all on the terminal, mccron and Schultz

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Speaker 2: get trounced by far right in EU elections. That has

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Speaker 2: been the headline, largely by the media. Europe tilts right.

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Speaker 2: What does it mean for Joe Biden's conversations later this week.

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Speaker 4: Well, I would actually just take a quick step back

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Speaker 4: and say the real headline this weekend is that, following

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Speaker 4: the eightieth anniversary of D Day celebrations, three hundred million

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Speaker 4: Europeans got to go to the polls and hold free,

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Speaker 4: fair elections on Parliament, that is, governing increasingly important policy

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Speaker 4: issues for the continent on trade, on competition, and increasingly

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Speaker 4: on foreign policy. So I know that's not the headline,

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Speaker 4: but I think it is worth taking a step back

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Speaker 4: before we jump into the details to keep your perspective

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Speaker 4: on that. The bad news, of course, well, I'll have

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Speaker 4: an another good news headline, which is the Center seems

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Speaker 4: to have held the coalition of parties from the center

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Speaker 4: of right that have generally supported current President Versul vander

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Speaker 4: Lyon looks like it is emerging quite strong from these

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Speaker 4: elections and that she will continue most likely to be

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Speaker 4: the leader of the European Commission. And so that also

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Speaker 4: is good news for Europe that remains committed to Ukraine support,

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Speaker 4: remains committed to further integration. Now to your point about

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Speaker 4: weakened leaders in Germany and France, those are the two

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Speaker 4: biggest economies in the European Union, those are the drivers

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Speaker 4: of European integration, and both of them, as you say,

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Speaker 4: have emerged quite badly injured from these results. Olef Schultz

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Speaker 4: has another year and a half roughly to go before

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Speaker 4: he needs to call an election. President Marcroan surprised us

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Speaker 4: all by calling his own election. He remains in office

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Speaker 4: for another three years, but I think he feels the

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Speaker 4: need to really shake things up. It's a big gamble

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Speaker 4: in France, which is seeing its own financial situation begin

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Speaker 4: to deteriorate. It was downgraded, its debt was downgraded last week, and.

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Speaker 2: The prospects of.

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Speaker 4: A new government that takes control of that episcoal path

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Speaker 4: look dim right now. And that's why you've seen the

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Speaker 4: markets sell off quite quickly. For President Biden to get

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Speaker 4: back to your question, I think you know he'll most

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Speaker 4: likely ignore these near term results and focus on these

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Speaker 4: longer term issues of agreement with European leaders on how

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Speaker 4: to help Ukraine, as Josh walked us through before, on

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Speaker 4: how to confront China and its exports that are flooding

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Speaker 4: US and European markets, and I think, how to try

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Speaker 4: and align themselves as closely as possible on a path

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Speaker 4: forward in the Middle East.

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Speaker 2: But you said something really important there, Christopher Smart. This

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Speaker 2: is why we wanted to talk to you, is for perspective.

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Speaker 2: We're seeking context here at Bloomberg constantly, because you said

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Speaker 2: that could be a very different headline. The Center held

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Speaker 2: while we did see some voters turn to the right.

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Speaker 2: I wonder to what extent you see the war in

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Speaker 2: Ukraine pushing them in that direction.

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Speaker 4: I think a couple things that pushed them in that direction.

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Speaker 4: One is the war in Ukraine, which is a serious

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Speaker 4: security risk to the European Union. It's also a political affront.

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Speaker 4: The European Union is built on the inviolability of borders

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Speaker 4: and the fact that Russia felt that it could cross

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Speaker 4: over into Ukraine with impunity. I think many Europeans take

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Speaker 4: that sort of personally and emotionally, and I think.

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Speaker 5: That's part of it.

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Speaker 4: The other thing we don't talk about so much anymore,

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Speaker 4: but is the COVID response. The EU responded very quickly

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Speaker 4: and vigorously to COVID and put a lot of money

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Speaker 4: into people's pockets. There are also a continuing stream of

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Speaker 4: subsidies that come from Brussels to many EU countries right now.

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Speaker 4: And importantly, the reason that it's important to focus on

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Speaker 4: the fact that the center right held is that even

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Speaker 4: these extreme right parties that we're talking about right now,

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Speaker 4: and they pose their own danger. I don't want to

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Speaker 4: minimize that, but they are not running on a let's

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Speaker 4: pull out of Europe platform they were the way they

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Speaker 4: were a few years ago. They're running on a let's

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Speaker 4: do it differently, let's bring you know, a few more

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Speaker 4: powers back to the capitals. But it would be very

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Speaker 4: hard for any of them to say let's pull out now. Gosh,

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Speaker 4: let's see what happened to the UK when they pulled out.

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Speaker 4: That wasn't really a great story to tell. And you know,

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Speaker 4: the UK is still limping from its wounds on that decision.

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Speaker 4: And so I think, you know, the far right parties

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Speaker 4: are very important to monitor, but they are not calling

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Speaker 4: into question European institutions the way.

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Speaker 2: Well, I'm really glad we could talk to you today,

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Speaker 2: Christopher Smart, many thanks for joining us here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: From our growth This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: Rodoo with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: As closing arguments get underway now and Hunter Biden's trial

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Speaker 2: prosecutor Leo Wise, holding fourth year, talking to jurors just

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Speaker 2: a short time ago, quote the evidence was personal. He said,

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Speaker 2: it was ugly and it was overwhelming. Wise went on

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Speaker 2: to say it was also absolutely necessary. We've heard some

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Speaker 2: very personal and grizzly details over the past couple of

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Speaker 2: days of testimony, and I'm glad that we could spend

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Speaker 2: some time with June Grosso to give us a sense

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Speaker 2: of what might happen next in this trial. Of course,

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Speaker 2: the host of Bloomberg Law, who's had her hands full,

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Speaker 2: you might say recently, I'm not sure who's covering politics

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Speaker 2: and the legal world. Between the two of us, June,

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Speaker 2: we keep bumping into each other here. Oh, it's a

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Speaker 2: pleasure though, appreciate it. Well, you know, the honor is mine.

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Speaker 2: Are we going to get a verdict in this case

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Speaker 2: this week?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 6: This week?

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Speaker 3: Yes?

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Speaker 6: I thought you were going to say today, and I

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Speaker 6: was going to say maybe, maybe, not definitely this week.

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Speaker 6: If there's not a verdict by this week, then the

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Speaker 6: jury is hung and the judge will give them what's

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Speaker 6: called I've talked about it before, an Allen charge or

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Speaker 6: a dynamite charge, to go back and try to come

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Speaker 6: to a decision, you know, think about what other people

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Speaker 6: are saying. So but yes, definitely a verdict this week.

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Speaker 2: Of course, as we go through the closings here, we're

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Speaker 2: reminded of everything that we learned so far, and there's

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Speaker 2: been a lot of writing about just how difficult and

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Speaker 2: personal this has been for the Biden family. But can

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Speaker 2: you bring our listeners back to the table here. They've

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Speaker 2: heard a lot about laptops, they've heard a lot about

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Speaker 2: business dealings with the Biden family. We're talking about a

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Speaker 2: gun case here. It's actually pretty narrow considering some of

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Speaker 2: the other allegations and the tax trial that awaits Hunter

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Speaker 2: Biden after this.

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Speaker 6: It is very narrow. But because the prosecution is saying

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Speaker 6: that Hunter Biden was addicted to drugs and so he

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Speaker 6: should have filled out this form. It's all about this

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Speaker 6: checking this one box on the gun application for in

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Speaker 6: the federal form, are you addicted to drugs? Are you

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Speaker 6: using drugs? So the prosecution is saying, because of that

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Speaker 6: he should have checked that he shouldn't have gotten a gun,

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Speaker 6: and the three felony charges all relate to checking that box.

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Speaker 6: But the prosecution has brought forth and you mentioned they

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Speaker 6: said they had to bring it all. I'm not so

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Speaker 6: sure because a lot of it, also, I think, was

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Speaker 6: to just dirty up Hunter Biden here to show that

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Speaker 6: he was not only addicted to drugs, but he took

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Speaker 6: his family and members of his family down with him.

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Speaker 6: They called ex wife, they called ex lovers, They talked

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Speaker 6: about his drug fueled lifestyle. They showed pictures of him

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Speaker 6: half naked with a crack pipe, and they played excerpts

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Speaker 6: from his memoir. So a lot of it I think

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Speaker 6: was not necessary. And they still don't have any one

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Speaker 6: who can say that on the date that he filled

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Speaker 6: out that form they saw him taking drugs or there's

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Speaker 6: any evidence at on that specific date. There's a break

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Speaker 6: with the defense or the defense says they have to

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Speaker 6: show that it that he was actually on drugs. Then

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Speaker 6: that's what that form seems to indicate. And the form

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Speaker 6: is kind of ambiguous, and the prosecution says, no, we

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Speaker 6: don't have to show that it was on that date.

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Speaker 6: We just have to show that he was a drug user.

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Speaker 6: So you know, it's it must be a tough and

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Speaker 6: as you mentioned, the first lady was there nearly every day.

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Speaker 6: She went one day she flew to France to be

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Speaker 6: with the president during the D Day celebrations, and then

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Speaker 6: you know, she came back. So there's been a lot

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Speaker 6: of family at that at the trial to support Hunter.

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Speaker 2: Biden sure has Well, we'll talk again, I know when

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Speaker 2: this goes to the jury. But I have to ask

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Speaker 2: you as well about Donald Trump's legal journey, which brings

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Speaker 2: him into a virtual meeting today. I think if it

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Speaker 2: were you and I we'd have to show up in person,

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Speaker 2: but a virtual meeting with his probation officer. What is

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Speaker 2: the interview going to include.

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Speaker 6: Jim, Well, so this is it will be virtual and

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Speaker 6: his attorney is going to be present as well, which

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Speaker 6: is also not usual for these kind of probation interviews.

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Speaker 6: And NBC is reporting just for a little fact that

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Speaker 6: it's going to be a female probation officer who's doing

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Speaker 6: the interview with him. This I think will be unlike

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Speaker 6: any other probation interview because normally what they're doing is

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Speaker 6: trying to get background facts. You know, first, is there

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Speaker 6: any criminal history, what's your family background? Are their family

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Speaker 6: members to support you? You have any addiction issues, any

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Speaker 6: physical problems, all those kinds of things that we know,

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Speaker 6: and the judgment already knows about Donald Trump. But then

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Speaker 6: there's the question of whether he'd be and this is

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Speaker 6: sort of an overarching theme amenable to supervision. So does

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Speaker 6: he accept the fact that he was you know, that

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Speaker 6: he was prosecuted and convicted by a jury, and does

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Speaker 6: he accept it and will he follow the rules if

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Speaker 6: he is given probation? So there also we know the

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Speaker 6: aggravating and mitigating factors, and so does the judge he

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Speaker 6: violated the gag order? More than ten times, you know.

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Speaker 6: And he has said things you know, back and forth

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Speaker 6: about the judge which the judge won't take into account.

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Speaker 6: But still it shows that he doesn't does it hasn't

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Speaker 6: respected the criminal justice system, as we've seen time and again.

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Speaker 6: So I don't think that this is really going to

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Speaker 6: be a help to the judge as much as if

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Speaker 6: the judge didn't really know him. But the judge knows.

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Speaker 6: We all know these different facts about him. So it'll

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Speaker 6: be we won't find out unless the defense releases it,

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Speaker 6: because it'll be sent to the judge directly, and it

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Speaker 6: usually isn't revealed until later.

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Speaker 2: Fascinating, and you're right, his lawyer, Todd Blanche will be

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Speaker 2: on the call to think it's a zoom meeting. June Grosso,

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Speaker 2: great to see you. I'll be listening later, of course,

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Speaker 2: the host of Bloomberg Law and Bloomberg Radio six pm

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Speaker 2: Eastern time. If you know what's good for you, I've

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Speaker 2: got lots of cover every day with June. My goodness.

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Speaker 2: As we assembled our panel here, Genie Shanzano's back with us.

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Speaker 2: You better believe Democratic analysts Bloomberg Politics contributor, senior Democracy

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Speaker 2: fellow with the Center for the Study of the Presidency

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Speaker 2: in Congress and Chapein fay Is with a Republican strategist

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Speaker 2: managing director at ACTIM. Great to see both of you,

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Speaker 2: and thanks for joining Chapin. What do you think about

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Speaker 2: the optics here? I don't know if this thing is

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Speaker 2: going to go public or not, but I mean, I

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Speaker 2: keep hearing nobody cares. I've got a cbsu Go poll

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Speaker 2: today says twenty eight percent of likely voters actually will

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Speaker 2: consider Donald Trump's conviction to be a major factor in

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Speaker 2: their vote. But just the sort of demeaning optics of

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Speaker 2: sitting for an interview with a probation officer does it matter?

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Speaker 7: I think it matters a little bit, like that poll indicates.

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Speaker 7: You know, I think a lot of this stuff is

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Speaker 7: baked in. You know, we've been dealing with you know,

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Speaker 7: Trump's supporters and voters have been dealing with these allegations

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Speaker 7: and investigations for years now. We just went through a trial,

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Speaker 7: a very public trial, where he was convicted. He's now

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Speaker 7: a convicted felon, and now he has to go me

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Speaker 7: with a probation officer.

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Speaker 5: You know, I don't know.

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Speaker 7: I think they're gonna I think they're gonna, you know,

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Speaker 7: still call us around him. You know, I think it's

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Speaker 7: already baked in. And and again you're fighting over sort

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Speaker 7: of independent voters who still sort of fall down partisan

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Speaker 7: lines if they're leaners. Right, if you're thinking about voting

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Speaker 7: for President Trump, you don't care that about the conviction,

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Speaker 7: and you see this as a political persecution, which Hunt

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Speaker 7: if you think, if you're leading Joe Biden, you know,

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Speaker 7: it matters a great deal to you that that his

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Speaker 7: opponent is a convicted felon. So I think, you know

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Speaker 7: it will be demeaning, But I don't know, you know,

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Speaker 7: one t you know.

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Speaker 2: Matter, Well, Genie, maybe I'm part of the problem here

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Speaker 2: because I'm putting these both together into the same conversation.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump, former president of the United States, running for

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Speaker 2: a second term, convicted felon meeting with his probation officer,

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Speaker 2: versus Hunter Biden, son of Joe Biden, not running for anything,

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Speaker 2: facing gun charges in this case, Should they be in

437
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 2: the same breath.

438
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 8: No, you're never part of the problem. Joe Matthew just

439
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:12,680
Speaker 8: part of the solution. So you know, they are part

440
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 8: of the y. They are part of the same conversation

441
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 8: because you know, anytime a relative of the sitting president is,

442
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 8: you know, being investigated or in a trial like Hunter is,

443
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,680
Speaker 8: it's big news. Obviously the same ghost or somebody who's

444
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 8: leading his party the presumptive nominee. Certainly we all know

445
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 8: Hunter Biden is not on the ballot. I think one

446
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 8: of the fascinating things I've witnessed on the Hunter Biden

447
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 8: and is Donald Trump's reaction to it and the Republican's

448
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 8: reaction to it. The rhetoric has changed. You know, we

449
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 8: heard Donald Trump on Fox News a few days ago

450
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 8: being empathetic to the situation Hunter Biden finds himself in

451
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 8: as an addict, talking about his own brothers problems with alcoholism.

452
00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 8: You don't hear the Republicans talking as much about negatively

453
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 8: about Hunter Biden as you did, so I think they

454
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 8: are cognizant of the fact that so many Americans struggle

455
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 8: with addiction, that they have not been attacking him in

456
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 8: the way they were just a few months ago. Could

457
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:17,239
Speaker 8: that change, absolutely, But I think Democrats still trying to

458
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,680
Speaker 8: make hay out of Donald Trump's conviction, and we see

459
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:24,639
Speaker 8: the CBS poll around the edges, it has some impact.

460
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 8: The twenty eight percent you talked about it, gin's up

461
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 8: the base for Joe Biden. But the reality is people

462
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 8: care most about the bread and butter issues, and that's

463
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 8: what Joe Biden needs to focus on.

464
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 2: Interesting rhetoric, as always, from Donald Trump in Las Vegas

465
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 2: over the weekend, Chapin. We can talk about his references

466
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:48,160
Speaker 2: to the January sixth rioters as warriors. We can talk

467
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:50,439
Speaker 2: about a lot of the things he said about our

468
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 2: rigged election and the border. But I'm curious your thoughts

469
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 2: on his decision to show up in Las Vegas and

470
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 2: propose eliminating taxes on tips, speaking of course to masses

471
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 2: of people who work in the hospitality industry in Nevada,

472
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 2: and it resonated with the crowd. Smart politics, of course.

473
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 7: I mean, anytime you're talking about putting more money in

474
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 7: people's pockets, it's smart politics.

475
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 2: You know.

476
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 7: That's especially when it aligns with, for the previous conversation,

477
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 7: the main issues that people care about, right, A few

478
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 7: people care about a few percentage points care about the

479
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 7: conviction and Trump, and of course a lot of this

480
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 7: the Democrats are trying to make this campaign referendum on Trump.

481
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 2: If this were Joe Biden, you'd call it an election

482
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 2: you're a stunt, wouldn't you Maybe maybe I don't.

483
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 7: Know, but I don't I don't know. I mean, this

484
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 7: is something I think if I think, we'd be surprised,

485
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 7: as some of all. Joe Biden offered this because it's

486
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 7: you know, the left and Democrats are not usually in

487
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 7: the habit of putting money back in people's pockets by

488
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 7: lowering taxes. But again, if if President Biden said he

489
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 7: was in a lower taxes on you know, hospitality workers,

490
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,679
Speaker 7: I would support that. You know, I may call it

491
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 7: an election year stunt, but I certainly would support the policy.

492
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 2: They're not mutually and by the way, the less you know,

493
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 2: they exactly.

494
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 7: The last I'll say is, sorry, is everything that happens

495
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 7: on both sides you'll see from a couple months ago

496
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 7: through election day is going to be declared a stunt? Anyway.

497
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 2: Well that's the truth. And I don't know if any

498
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 2: of that even matters, Genie, But you know, people were

499
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 2: calling this just forgiving student loans an election year stunt.

500
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 2: They've called the President's boarder executive action and an election

501
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 2: year stunt, even if they agree with the policy. It's

502
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,159
Speaker 2: interesting here does Donald Trump have something to run on.

503
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 8: You know, it is something. I mean, we are going

504
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 8: to be debating taxes twenty twenty four, twenty twenty five,

505
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:48,639
Speaker 8: in particular in Washington, d C. So this is a

506
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 8: policy that you know, could find its way into the conversation,

507
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 8: and I think there's going to be some pushback on it, certainly,

508
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 8: But this is the reality of election year politicking. And

509
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 8: at this point, I'm thinking most Americans who want to

510
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 8: break on anything should consider moving to these six or

511
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 8: seven swing states because if you're living outside of those,

512
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 8: you're not going to get much action on any of this.

513
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 8: But move there and you get all of these kinds

514
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,120
Speaker 8: of things dangling. So, you know, this is the reality

515
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,959
Speaker 8: of our election system, which probably needs to be reconsidered.

516
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 8: But this is where we are.

517
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 2: Today, Philly, Wisconsin, Michigan, money falling from the skies. It

518
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 2: does make us think though of this idea of you know,

519
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 2: the union vote being up for grabs in this election,

520
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,120
Speaker 2: Genie and Chape, and it's something that we're not done

521
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 2: talking about here. Even as Joe Biden calls himself the

522
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 2: most union friendly president in American history, We've seen Donald

523
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 2: Trump do very well with the rank and file. We're

524
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 2: just getting started on the fastest show in politics. I'm

525
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

526
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

527
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,919
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Evocarplay and then

528
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 1: Roudoro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen non demand wherever

529
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. A watch us live on YouTube.

530
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 9: I am indeed Kaylee lines back in Washington after a

531
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 9: weekend away, and Donald Trump also was elsewhere this weekend.

532
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 9: Joe and Las Vegas held a big rally in what

533
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 9: I understand was pretty incredible. Heat indeed had a specific

534
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 9: pitch to all of the hospitality workers that inhabit the

535
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 9: state of Nevada. No taxes on tipped income is what

536
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 9: he was pitching.

537
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 2: Pitching I guess on behalf of Congress, because you'd have

538
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 2: to have legislation there. But I guess it all feeds

539
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 2: back into the twenty seventeen tax cuts becoming permanent, an

540
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 2: argument that will be had here certainly if Donald Trump

541
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 2: is elected to another term. But yeah, this is interesting.

542
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 2: This is the stuff that is frequently referred to as

543
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 2: an election year stunt, but it's one that certainly resonated

544
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 2: with the crowd. And when you consider the importance of

545
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 2: the culinary your workers' union on the Las Vegas Strip

546
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 2: that Joe Biden needs to win over to take that state,

547
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 2: it's pretty shrewd. He also took a stand and on

548
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 2: a Senate race while he was there, So we've got

549
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 2: a lot to talk about on the campaign trail.

550
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 9: And did we do what you're referring to Trump endorsing

551
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 9: retired Army Captain Sam Brown for the Senate race in

552
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 9: Nevada over his former ambassador to isolate Jeff Gunter really

553
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 9: interesting to.

554
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 2: See in the establishment move I'm not sure I want

555
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 2: to hear more about this. We learned so much by

556
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 2: talking to Aaron Kovey last week here on Bloomberg from

557
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 2: the Cook Political Report, we wanted to bring her back

558
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 2: today and get into this. Contributing author to the twenty

559
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 2: twenty four Almanac of American Politics, Erin, It's great to

560
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 2: see you. I wonder if we could start here on

561
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 2: this one. Donald Trump, obviously, if he's reelected, can't just

562
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 2: eliminate taxes on tips. But the way this seemed to

563
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 2: resonate with the crowd makes me wonder if this could

564
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:44,479
Speaker 2: be an effective campaign message for him. Will we hear

565
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:46,479
Speaker 2: about this for the rest of the cycle.

566
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 10: Hey, well, thanks for having me on.

567
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 9: You know, I don't know.

568
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 10: It seems like this is an issue that is kind

569
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 10: of specific to Nevada voters, which obviously won't matter heading

570
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 10: into twenty twenty four. Nevada is obviously one of the

571
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 10: swing states that we'll be watching closely that could determine

572
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 10: the election, but it is one state where Trump has

573
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 10: been doing a lot better in polling. Biden narrowly won

574
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 10: this state in twenty twenty. Clinton narrowly wanted in twenty

575
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 10: sixteen by a slightly larger margin, and so this is

576
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 10: one state that could certainly be an impact.

577
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 9: Yeah, And of course, to your point, it is a

578
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 9: state that we will get some insight into with the

579
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 9: results from primaries tomorrow. One of those primary races, of course,

580
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 9: is for this Senate race. Aaron, and I wonder what

581
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 9: you make of the endorsement that Trump gave to Sam Brown,

582
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 9: the aforementioned retired Army captain, over someone that was part

583
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 9: of his administration as an ambassador to Iceland. What is

584
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 9: this signal about the Trump endorsement and the way in

585
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 9: which it may be changing in this election cycle relative

586
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 9: to the past ones we have seen.

587
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's an interesting question. You know, Trump has been

588
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 10: very involved in the previous races and Republican primaries. I

589
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 10: think he's been a little less involved in endorsing down

590
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 10: ballot candidates this site relative to previous cycles. But I

591
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 10: would say as a whole, some of those endorsements have

592
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 10: been a little more I guess disciplined would be the

593
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 10: right word for it, compared to previous cycles. Sam Brown

594
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 10: was the pick of Republican Senate leaders. They believe he

595
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 10: is the best position to take on Jackie Rosen in

596
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 10: the Senate race this November, and so you know, this

597
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 10: was an endorsement that I think, you know, was kind

598
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 10: of up for grabs, definitely. Like you said earlier, Jeffrey Gunter,

599
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 10: the former ambassador at Iceland, was also running. Obviously a

600
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 10: member of the Trump administration previously and had his own

601
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 10: connection to the Trump world. But I think this shows

602
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 10: that Trump is a little more aligned, maybe with the

603
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 10: Republican establishment than he has been in previous races.

604
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 2: Well, that's that's a really important part of the story,

605
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 2: because you know, he was supposed to roll out this

606
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 2: endorsement at the rally, he hardly mentioned Sam Brown and

607
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 2: then shows up on truth Social late at night talking

608
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 2: about this fearless and Maria Sek and Patriot his pure

609
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 2: grit encouraged to take on our enemies, he write, both

610
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 2: foreign and domestic. So did somebody get to Donald Trump?

611
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 2: Did he get a phone call from Steve Danes? What

612
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 2: happened on Sunday?

613
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 10: You know, I don't have any inside information on that specifically,

614
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 10: but you know, I think it's important to also note

615
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 10: that Sam Brown was already favored to win this race.

616
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 10: He's the only one who is really spending a significant

617
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 10: amount of money, has a huge advantage over the other

618
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 10: candidates as far as fundraising goes, and also ran for

619
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 10: Senate last cycle, and so already had a bit of

620
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 10: a base to draw from. And so I think, you know,

621
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 10: Brown was favored from the get go, and this kind

622
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 10: of semen's his status as the favorite.

623
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 9: So we'll be watching to see what happens in Nevada tomorrow.

624
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 9: There's other races, though, that we are watching closely arin

625
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 9: including in South Carolina Congressman Nancy Mace facing a primary challenge.

626
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 9: She has been an interesting figure in the House of Representatives.

627
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 9: She of course is one who voted for the ouster

628
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 9: for Speaker Kevin McCarthy last year. How vulnerable is she?

629
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 10: Yeah, So throughout this cycle, McCarthy has been on a

630
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 10: bit of a revenge tour. He obviously had a little

631
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 10: more time on his hands now that he's no longer

632
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 10: in the House, and he's been supporting challengers to the

633
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 10: eight Republican members who ousted him last year. Now, Mace,

634
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 10: I think was kind of in a unique position because

635
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 10: she had previously been an ally of McCarthy, and McCarthy

636
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 10: and his allies had spent significantly to help her in

637
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 10: previous races. She'd faced competitive primaries competitive general elections before,

638
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 10: so she is no stranger to tough races. But now

639
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 10: she has McCarthy's political operation going against her. I believe

640
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 10: up to five million has now been spent against her

641
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 10: in that primary, and for Catherine Templeton, who is a

642
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 10: former member of Nicki Haley's administration, who is challenging Mace

643
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 10: and is the one that McCarthy is supporting. But I

644
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 10: will note that Mace does have the endorsement of Trump here,

645
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 10: which I think kind of took the wind out of

646
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 10: Templeton's sales that happened a couple of months ago, and

647
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 10: so I think most folks I've talked to in the

648
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 10: state believe that she is favored to win this primary,

649
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 10: but could feel a little closer than she wants it

650
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 10: to be.

651
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 2: Indeed, what are the odds that this goes to a runoff?

652
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 4: You know?

653
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 10: I think most likely it doesn't. There is a third

654
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 10: candidate on the ballot, and so in South Carolina, if

655
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 10: no one gets fifty percent of the vote, that means

656
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,440
Speaker 10: the top two finishers will go to a runoff two

657
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 10: weeks from now. I think most folks I've talked to

658
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 10: think that Mace probably will hit that threshold and be fine,

659
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 10: but certainly a chance.

660
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 9: It's interesting to talk about, or consider the idea that

661
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,360
Speaker 9: Nancy Mace does have the endorsement of Donald Trump, despite

662
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 9: being one of the one to move to oust Kevin

663
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 9: McCarthy last year, a number of others, though including some

664
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 9: in the House Freedom Caucus, or not receiving the same

665
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:59,320
Speaker 9: support from Donald Trump. In fact, he is vocally endorsed

666
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:02,919
Speaker 9: Virginia State Senator John maguire, who was primary Bob Good,

667
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 9: the chair of the Freedom Caucus in Virginia, And there

668
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 9: was reporting today from Punchbowl the idea that a lot

669
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 9: of members of the Freedom Caucus are quite unhappy with

670
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 9: the decisions Trump is making in regard to his endorsements.

671
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 9: I realized this comes back to a certain degree to

672
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 9: the question I began with Aaron, this idea that maybe

673
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 9: the Trump endorsement is changing from say what it was

674
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:24,240
Speaker 9: in twenty twenty two when a lot of the candidates

675
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 9: that he decided to back ultimately did not win their races.

676
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think that's right, and he certainly reveled some

677
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,319
Speaker 10: feathers in the Freedom Caucus wing of the party. You know,

678
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 10: Bob Good is in a kind of uniquely difficult position

679
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 10: because he has drawn the ir both of Trump and

680
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 10: then for endorsing the stances that was kind of what

681
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 10: originally started this rift back last year. But he also

682
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 10: has made an enemy of McCarthy by voting to oust

683
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 10: him last year. And so you have McCarthy's political operations

684
00:35:57,040 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 10: spending heavily in support of McGuire, and again it's good.

685
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 10: And then on top of that, you have Trump and

686
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:06,719
Speaker 10: some of his allies also backing McGuire, and so that

687
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,720
Speaker 10: endorsement is now of course, all over the airwaves, McGuire

688
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 10: has a pretty significant advantage on TV at this point. Now,

689
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 10: you know, I've seen polling that shows Good eching a

690
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 10: out a win. Ultimately, I've seen pulling that shows McGuire ahead.

691
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 10: So I think this is really going to be a

692
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:26,400
Speaker 10: jump ball next week. But I think it's fair to

693
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:30,760
Speaker 10: say that Good is probably the most vulnerable Republican incumbent

694
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 10: in a primary com pair to folks like Mace. And

695
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 10: then there are a couple of other members, incumbent members

696
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 10: who have been critics of the House bredem Caucus who

697
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 10: Trump has also endorsed. So that's William Timmins in South

698
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 10: Carolina also has a primary tomorrow from Adam Morgan, who

699
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 10: is actually the chairman of South Carolina's House Freedom Caucus

700
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,240
Speaker 10: and has a lot of grassroots support in that district.

701
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 10: This is an upstate excuse me, upstate South Carolina, And

702
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 10: so I know that is one race where he has

703
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:05,320
Speaker 10: the support of a lot of folks on the ground

704
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:07,320
Speaker 10: and the more conservative wing of the party, and people

705
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,720
Speaker 10: are not happy with Trump for endorsing Timmins.

706
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 9: All right, erin great to have you back on balance

707
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 9: of power. Aeron Kobe of the Kok Political Report, where

708
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 9: she's an analyst. Thank you so much.

709
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,920
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can

710
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

711
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:27,840
Speaker 1: roun Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

712
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

713
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:35,839
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

714
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:40,239
Speaker 2: As we return to Shuttle diplomacy for the Secretary of

715
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 2: State Anthony Blincoln, now making his eighth trip to the

716
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 2: Middle East since the seventh of October. I'm Joe Matthew

717
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:49,839
Speaker 2: alongside Kaylee Lines here in Washington, and Kaylee, we're looking

718
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 2: for results. These trips have obviously come now number eight here,

719
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 2: but the breakthroughs have been difficult for the Secretary of

720
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 2: State to find it. In fact, sometimes it's a bigger

721
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:03,840
Speaker 2: headline when the CIA Director Bill Burns shows up and

722
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 2: clutter to move the ball, and you start wondering what

723
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 2: the value of these trips can.

724
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 9: Be, well, especially when the trip's point so many of

725
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 9: them have been to push for another temporary ceasefire agreement

726
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 9: that to this point has not yet come to fruition.

727
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 9: Time and again the Secretary of State has traveled to

728
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:24,360
Speaker 9: the Middle East only to return essentially empty handed, without

729
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 9: anything ultra tangible that he can point to, because still

730
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 9: no ceasfire has been put into place.

731
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, some interesting headlines over the weekend. Of course, we

732
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 2: saw the rescue of four hostages, but it came at

733
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 2: a high cost for Israeli hostages. Israel says its forces

734
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:45,880
Speaker 2: killed around one hundred Palestinians. The Hamas run Health Ministry

735
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 2: says it actually was in the area of two hundred

736
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:51,920
Speaker 2: and seventy Kayley. So this balancing act continues, and you're

737
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 2: right there are questions about in the particularly the wake

738
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,399
Speaker 2: of Benny Gantz stepping down from the Work Cabinet, whether

739
00:38:57,400 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 2: we're further away now from a ceasefire than we were

740
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago.

741
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 9: Well, that's a question we want to pose now to

742
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 9: Jonathan Panakoff, who was joining US director of the Scowcroft

743
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 9: Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program,

744
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,800
Speaker 9: also former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Near East

745
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:15,360
Speaker 9: at the National Intelligence Council. Jonathan, always great to have

746
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:18,360
Speaker 9: you here. On balance of power, I wonder, to Joe's point,

747
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:20,959
Speaker 9: what you make of the events that have taken place

748
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 9: over the weekend and what it translates to terms of

749
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 9: likelihood of a temporary cease fire deal going into place.

750
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 9: Does the release of four hostages, or rather the rescue

751
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:33,720
Speaker 9: of them, put more pressure on the net and Yahoo

752
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:36,359
Speaker 9: government to agree to something that would allow for the

753
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 9: release of dozens more, or does it do the opposite.

754
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:42,319
Speaker 5: Thanks so much for having me. Great to be with

755
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:46,840
Speaker 5: you as always. I think actually it may unfortunately have

756
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 5: the opposite effect, obviously unintended as a consequence, but the

757
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 5: reality is you have from a number of folks on

758
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 5: the right in Lakuta and Israel and some of the ultranationalists,

759
00:39:57,239 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 5: folks like Ben Gervere and Smotrich who have been saying no,

760
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 5: there should be absolutely no deal with Hamas. We should

761
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:06,759
Speaker 5: keep going and conduct the war until it's concluded and

762
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 5: Hamas is destroyed. And yes, we can at the same

763
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 5: time also deal with the primary objective of rescuing the hostages.

764
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:17,760
Speaker 5: I think that's obviously a fallacy, to be totally honest.

765
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 5: It's eight months in and the number of hostages is

766
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,400
Speaker 5: what's been able to rescue is well under ten. But

767
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 5: the reality is now what we're seeing is I think

768
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 5: that'll give life to this idea and some credence to it.

769
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 5: Given understandable jubilation in Israel over the rescue of these

770
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:36,840
Speaker 5: hostages over the weekend.

771
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 2: Well, so do you expect to see further raids like this?

772
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:45,320
Speaker 2: And with each one does a ceasefire become more difficult?

773
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 5: I don't know that a ceasfire becomes more difficult. I

774
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 5: mean I will think, look, any country, and there's certainly

775
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:56,800
Speaker 5: any Western democratic country that's had hostages for eight months

776
00:40:56,880 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 5: will try to rescue them if it's a possibility. But

777
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 5: just to rescue these four took weeks, if not probably

778
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 5: months from what I'm hearing of planning. Obviously you're not

779
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:11,240
Speaker 5: going to be able to rescue the remaining sixty seventy

780
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 5: eighty hostages. However many are actually left alive right now

781
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 5: through rage like this, It would take years upon years,

782
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 5: and so I don't think it changes the calculus of

783
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 5: the need for some sort of negotiated hostage release for

784
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 5: prisoner swap. But I do think it certainly creates a

785
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:35,359
Speaker 5: situation where Sinwar now has an excuse again through propaganda

786
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:37,879
Speaker 5: of saying how many were killed to say no there's

787
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 5: no reason for me to negotiate. Look what Israel is

788
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:43,880
Speaker 5: doing and that can complicate things right now.

789
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 9: Yeah, the ratio is certainly something to consider.

790
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 7: Here.

791
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 9: You save four, but nearly three hundred lives, according to Hamas,

792
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 9: were lost in the process. So it comes back to

793
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 9: what the Secretary of State is really going to be

794
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 9: accomplishing on this trip, Jonathan. If you think actually the

795
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 9: likelihood of a ceasefire agreement being reached in the near

796
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 9: term is now less than it was, is Anthony Anthony

797
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 9: blinkoln going to walk away with nothing again? Is this

798
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 9: getting a little bit embarrassing diplomatically for the United States?

799
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 5: Oh? Look, I think it's never a bad thing to

800
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 5: try when you're in a war and you're in a crisis.

801
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 5: In the US, story remains probably the only country that

802
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 5: may be able to have some influence on the Israeli side,

803
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 5: though I think it's less, frankly, as we're seeing than

804
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 5: everybody has thought it might be in the region. I

805
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:36,040
Speaker 5: think it's always worth trying to create a ceasefire and

806
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:39,920
Speaker 5: get to a stage of peace. That said, I'm not

807
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 5: particularly optimistic. I do think right now this is about sinwar.

808
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 5: Hamas for a long time now has been viewed as

809
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:51,240
Speaker 5: a monolithic organization, and I think that's wrong. There's money,

810
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 5: fat fragments of Hamas, some of the political ones in

811
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:57,640
Speaker 5: Gazas and the political ones in Doha. The reality is, though,

812
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 5: the only person that matters when it comes to mass

813
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 5: right now is ya Ya Sinoir, and for him, there's

814
00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 5: not a lot of benefit to agreeing to a ceaspire

815
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:10,239
Speaker 5: and if he doesn't agree to a ceasefire, well then

816
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 5: there's no pressure for NAT and Yahoo to ultimately agree

817
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:16,359
Speaker 5: to one either, because Hamas has to go first at

818
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 5: this stage. That's what the pressure from the Biden administration

819
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 5: was about. I think Secretary Blincoln is trying to emphasize

820
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 5: that for his regions, for his travels throughout the regent,

821
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:29,440
Speaker 5: including in Egypt. We'll see what happens, but obviously I

822
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 5: think we're not nearly as optimistic as a lot of

823
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 5: folks were when the President originally gave his speech two

824
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:36,800
Speaker 5: weeks ago.

825
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 2: Well, what that said, Jonathan. The US is asking the

826
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:43,720
Speaker 2: United Nations Security Council for a vote on its latest

827
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:48,279
Speaker 2: resolution here for a ceasefire in Gaza. What impact, if any,

828
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:48,879
Speaker 2: would that have?

829
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 5: Look, I think you could again increase the pressure and

830
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 5: try to compel anybody who might have influence on Hamas

831
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 5: to try and pressure Sinhoar. But the reality is it's

832
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 5: probably not going to have much of an impact. I

833
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 5: think it's always good when the world speaks in a

834
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:08,320
Speaker 5: unified voice, and I think we've seen that in smaller form.

835
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 5: So the G seven statement supporting President Biden's initiative, the

836
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 5: arra Quinn statement supporting the President's initiative, obviously additional momentum.

837
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 5: Keeping it in the headlines is always important, but in

838
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 5: terms of actual impact, I think it's probably going to

839
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 5: be minimal in the end.

840
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 9: Jonathan, we also want to make sure to ask you

841
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:33,280
Speaker 9: about the departure of Anny Gance from the Israeli government.

842
00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 9: On the one hand, of course, it was in part

843
00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:38,399
Speaker 9: protest to Prime Minister Netanyah, who's handling of the war.

844
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:40,359
Speaker 9: On the other hand, what this leaves in the war

845
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 9: cabinet is much greater influence, perhaps of the far right.

846
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 9: Considering Gance was a moderate. What should we make of

847
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 9: his departure and the difference it will make going forward

848
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:52,759
Speaker 9: in Israel's conduct in this ongoing war.

849
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 5: It's a great question. The reality is this has been

850
00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:00,400
Speaker 5: a long time comic. Both Gance and you have Galant,

851
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:03,440
Speaker 5: the Defense Minister, who is part of the Work Cabinet,

852
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:06,239
Speaker 5: have been arguing for months there needs to be from

853
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:11,760
Speaker 5: NETANYAHUO a post war plan for Gaza. Obviously, the international

854
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 5: community and the US has prioritized the Palestinian authority playing

855
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:18,759
Speaker 5: a major role. Netanyah who said no to that. And

856
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 5: so if the answers no to that, what is the

857
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:25,400
Speaker 5: actual plan? And that's not clear yet, And that frustration

858
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 5: is what led Benny Gantz to decide we can't do

859
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:31,240
Speaker 5: this anymore and take his party out and for himself

860
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:35,400
Speaker 5: to leave the Work Cabinet. Whether it's actually going to happen.

861
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: Is it a cabinet of too then what happens?

862
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,799
Speaker 5: Yeah? So look, the Work Cabinet had six members, only

863
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 5: three were voting. You've got two options. One is that

864
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:49,520
Speaker 5: who can replace Benny Gantz? Obviously ultra nationalists like Ben

865
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:52,480
Speaker 5: Gavern's Motrich have both said they want the seat. I

866
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 5: think that's unlikely to happen. I thinkna who knows that

867
00:45:56,040 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 5: it's probably suicidal for him with the international community given

868
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 5: and how toxic those two are, I think he could

869
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 5: replace them with a Lukud member and somebody who's been

870
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 5: more loyal, or he could decide he's going to disband

871
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 5: the work cabinet, but all of these at risks. If

872
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 5: he disbands the work cabinet, then you're in jeopardy of

873
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 5: every major decision related to the war having to go

874
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:21,799
Speaker 5: to the full cabinet. And if it goes to the

875
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 5: full cabinet, well, once again the ultra nationalists are there

876
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:29,360
Speaker 5: who are pushing not only for an opportunity to push

877
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 5: harder against Hamas and eliminate Hamas, but have been very

878
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 5: clear they want settlements to return of Israelis to Gaza,

879
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:38,960
Speaker 5: they want to be able to push further into the

880
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 5: West Bank. And you're talking about something that's likely to

881
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:45,240
Speaker 5: actually increase tensions at a time where I think everybody

882
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 5: recognizes the need for them to come down a little.

883
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:53,720
Speaker 9: Bit, especially Jonathan considering it's not just tensions between Israel

884
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:56,439
Speaker 9: and Hamas, but in the wider Middle East that could

885
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,880
Speaker 9: potentially be amplified from this. Knowing prior to October seventh,

886
00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 9: there was an effort underway for Saudi normalization, and effort

887
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:05,399
Speaker 9: that obviously was disrupted by the events of that day.

888
00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 9: Everything that has happened thereafter. Yet that is also something

889
00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 9: that the US is pushing and I'm sure is on

890
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:12,920
Speaker 9: the mind of Anthony Blinkn as he makes this latest

891
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 9: trip to the Middle East. How should we be considering

892
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 9: the Saudi factor.

893
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:21,920
Speaker 5: Look, the Saudi normalization deal has been on the table

894
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:24,319
Speaker 5: for a while. I think in the immediate aftermath of

895
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 5: October seventh, there was a contention by some that now

896
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:31,840
Speaker 5: normalizations off the table. The reality is, Saudi normalization with

897
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:34,839
Speaker 5: Israel is about one thing, and it's not Israel. It's

898
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:40,480
Speaker 5: about US security guarantees and US engagement with Saudi Arabia

899
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:44,800
Speaker 5: over the long term. Saudi Arabia is desperate to try

900
00:47:44,840 --> 00:47:50,040
Speaker 5: and redefine their economy and to have a Vision twenty

901
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:53,320
Speaker 5: thirty actually implement it, and that means to move away

902
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 5: from hydrocarbons. The only way Saudi Arabia is going to

903
00:47:57,080 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 5: be able to successfully diversify their economy is to ensure

904
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:05,479
Speaker 5: their security is sacricynct. And to do that you either

905
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:08,320
Speaker 5: need to have really good relations with everybody in the region,

906
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:12,040
Speaker 5: something hard to imagine even with the reproachment with Iran,

907
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:15,480
Speaker 5: or you need some sort of umbrella protection. There's not

908
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:20,000
Speaker 5: enough political risk insurance in the world to ensure Saudi's

909
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:25,600
Speaker 5: domestic goals are met if the reality is you've got

910
00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:29,920
Speaker 5: houthy rockets, Iranian rockets in the future going down on

911
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:33,920
Speaker 5: Saudi Arabia. And so for the Biden administration, this has

912
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 5: been a key issue because they think this would transform

913
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:39,840
Speaker 5: the region if you had Saudi analyization with Israel. I

914
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:42,360
Speaker 5: think it probably would. But my guess is time is

915
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:46,120
Speaker 5: also running out right now to get that passed through

916
00:48:46,160 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 5: the Senate. You would need a treaty to be able

917
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:50,520
Speaker 5: to do that. As we head to an election season

918
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:53,279
Speaker 5: here in the US, I just think it's becoming less

919
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 5: and less likely. They're going to keep trying, but I

920
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 5: think it's harder to envision it coming to fruition in

921
00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:03,359
Speaker 5: the next six months, seven months before the new administration

922
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:04,040
Speaker 5: takes over.

923
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 2: Hey, Jonathan, we only have one minute. I have to

924
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 2: ask you about this Axios report talking about a warning

925
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:14,160
Speaker 2: from the Biden administration to Israel about opening a new front,

926
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 2: about waging war, committing to a war against Hesbolah. Is

927
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:20,839
Speaker 2: this something that's about to happen? Knowing that Israel has

928
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 2: not listened to a lot of advice from the US, recently.

929
00:49:24,560 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 5: I'm increasingly concerned that it is. Six months ago, I

930
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:30,359
Speaker 5: really didn't think it would happen. Israel didn't want it.

931
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:33,400
Speaker 5: Hesbol almost certainly doesn't want it. Iran doesn't want it.

932
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:37,719
Speaker 5: But the rocket attacks that have been coming from Hezbolah,

933
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 5: the drone attacks. Hesbollah said today they intercepted in Israeli

934
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:45,399
Speaker 5: drone on the other side, I think we're increasingly likely

935
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:49,240
Speaker 5: to see some sort of conflict if it sparks, because

936
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 5: it's Israeli instigated. I think that's going to be a

937
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 5: real challenge for the Biden administration, who said that they're

938
00:49:55,080 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 5: not going to support Israel in such a war. If

939
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:02,360
Speaker 5: it's from Hesbola, that's story. But the most likely scenario

940
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:06,920
Speaker 5: is that something sparks, becovers of an unintended escalation, a

941
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 5: back and forth with the rockets that gets out of hand. Look,

942
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:13,840
Speaker 5: it's not guaranteed. Almost Hostein is working very very hard

943
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 5: to get the Hesbarala Rodwong special Forces away from the

944
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:21,640
Speaker 5: Israel Lebanon border. But I think the chances of war

945
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 5: are dramatically increasing right now.

946
00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 2: Well, Jonathan, is great to have you back. Jonathan Panacoff,

947
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:30,239
Speaker 2: Director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the

948
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 2: Atlantic Council's Middle East Program. Thank you for joining in

949
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:39,920
Speaker 2: great insights today on Balance of Power. Thanks for listening

950
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:43,239
Speaker 2: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe

951
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 2: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you

952
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:48,799
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953
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 2: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.