Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros.
Speaker 2: It's time to place your bets, Joe Pisapia, and it
Speaker 2: is week fifteen in the NFL. It's time to look
Speaker 2: at some early values. We had some fun games on
Speaker 2: the slate. And if you watch last week's show, you
Speaker 2: got Ian early on the Bears money line, on the
Speaker 2: Broncos money line. Because that's what we do here at
Speaker 2: Betting Pros. We go ahead, we look ahead, and we
Speaker 2: find the early value.
Speaker 1: We and lock those bad boys in.
Speaker 2: And of course to help me break down this week's
Speaker 2: slate of games, which is every day this week almost
Speaker 2: you got football.
Speaker 1: It's amazing. We got all kinds of football going. You
Speaker 1: like football, You like football? What do you like?
Speaker 2: We got football over the place for you. Pat Fitzmorris,
Speaker 2: my Patty Cakes and Sam Hoppin, who is always popping
Speaker 2: here on Betting Pros, always knee deep in NFL and NBA.
Speaker 2: He's the hardest working man in show business. It feels
Speaker 2: like so, gentlemen, we've got, like I said, full slate
Speaker 2: of games to get to. I know it's fantasy playoffs,
Speaker 2: but for us, every week is playoffs. We're trying to
Speaker 2: win money. We're trying to do what needs to be
Speaker 2: done to cross over that threshold of cashing. And before
Speaker 2: we get to the games on the slate to give
Speaker 2: something away because it's that time of year, it's festive,
Speaker 2: so we always promise we're giving away Betting Pros Premium
Speaker 2: upgrades for a year, and this week's winner is Curtis Brooks.
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Speaker 2: like Curtis of that Betting Pros premium subscription. So gentlemen,
Speaker 2: let's kick things off your Thursday football. I'd love to
Speaker 2: say it's an exciting one, but it's probably not. Again,
Speaker 2: the Los Angeles Chargers are going to face the Las
Speaker 2: Vegas A Raiders. Both teams are five and eight. The
Speaker 2: over under for this game is thirty three and a
Speaker 2: half on the consensus line of Betting Pros. Three is
Speaker 2: the number. If you like the Chargers to win. It's
Speaker 2: plus one point thirty all on the money line outright.
Speaker 2: But we probably won't get Herbert in this game was
Speaker 2: a broken finger. I'd imagine we're not going to get him,
Speaker 2: which means we're gonna get Easton Stick potentially playing quarterback,
Speaker 2: which is exactly what I carried to the plate with
Speaker 2: me back in nineteen ninety three. A good old Easton stick.
Speaker 2: Get out there. Nothing like that metal ping FITZI look,
Speaker 2: this one is wacky here. I am leaning early on
Speaker 2: the Raiders here on this one. In the minus three,
Speaker 2: I know they did not score. I know it was atrocious,
Speaker 2: but I'm gonna shake the dust off here and instead
Speaker 2: think I'm gonna take my chances against the backup QB.
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts, FITZI.
Speaker 3: I agree with you, Joe. I do think there's a
Speaker 3: little bit of value on the Raiders, and it was
Speaker 3: really disappointing to see them just completely lay an egg
Speaker 3: at home against the Vikings and not well. At least
Speaker 3: the offense late and eggs. The defense did its job,
Speaker 3: But like, this is a team that has shown a
Speaker 3: spree decorps ever since the firing of Josh McDaniels, Like
Speaker 3: they have been a better team. And now we're getting
Speaker 3: this Chargers team that has shown an inability to finish
Speaker 3: again under Brandon Staley, and you know now they've got
Speaker 3: the backup quarterback. So I do think the Raiders are
Speaker 3: the better play. But it's interesting that since these lines
Speaker 3: went up on Sunday night, we've seen a little bit
Speaker 3: of money come in on the Chargers because now it
Speaker 3: is minus one fifteen to bet the Chargers and minus
Speaker 3: one oh five to bet the Raiders, so it's kind
Speaker 3: of gone the opposite way.
Speaker 2: I would have thought, Sam, you're a big Spree de corps. Guy,
Speaker 2: I know that about you already, so let's talk about it.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about this game here. I'm just gonna go
Speaker 2: with the team that is at home. I'm gonna go
Speaker 2: with the team that's playing against the backup QB, and
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the team that's taking on a
Speaker 2: Brandon Staley road team here and just kind of take
Speaker 2: my chances with the Raiders. This is gambling, this is wagering,
Speaker 2: and it feels like it. But it feels like Vegas
Speaker 2: to me. What does it feel like to you?
Speaker 4: Look from the creators of Bailey Zappy versus Mitch Trubisky,
Speaker 4: we present to you East and Stick versus Aidan O'Connell.
Speaker 4: Another riveting Thursday night matchup that I'm sure Al Michaels
Speaker 4: will be thrilled to be calling. But I actually kind
Speaker 4: of like the Chargers here. Robbie Greer Greer NFL on
Speaker 4: Twitter has done some phenomenal research on the performance of
Speaker 4: backup quarterbacks when they come in to replace a starter,
Speaker 4: and when a replacement plays in place of an above
Speaker 4: average starter, which I think Herbert is. The backup outperforms
Speaker 4: Vegas expectations and covers fifty four percent of the games
Speaker 4: in their start. And I've mentioned the sort of entropy
Speaker 4: feeling with games in the past and having a lot
Speaker 4: of unknowns in a game and taking the plus money
Speaker 4: in those in those games. So I like the Chargers here.
Speaker 4: I mean, it's gross for sure, But I don't know
Speaker 4: what I saw from the Raiders on Sunday that would
Speaker 4: make me excited to bet them.
Speaker 2: I had nothing exciting. They did not show up once
Speaker 2: on red zone. By the way, that entire game, the
Speaker 2: entire game.
Speaker 1: Not once. People are like, is that happening? Do something
Speaker 1: happened in that game? Was Aaron delay? Nope?
Speaker 2: Nope, it was going What a strange game that was?
Speaker 1: All right?
Speaker 2: Now, we've got three Saturday games. First one is the
Speaker 2: Minnesota Cincinnati game. Second straight road game here for the
Speaker 2: Minnesota Vikings. Both these teams are seven and six. Jake
Speaker 2: Browning playing good football, winning big games here. Thirty nine
Speaker 2: and a half is the number consensus on VP. You've
Speaker 2: got a three and a half point number here on
Speaker 2: the Cincinnati Bengals and the minus Minnesota plus one sixty
Speaker 2: four for the upset Sam. To me, it feels like
Speaker 2: the Minnesota Vikings the Wheels have come off here a
Speaker 2: little bit. The momentum is completely stopped two road games
Speaker 2: in a row. I don't love this, and I feel
Speaker 2: like the Bengals feel like they have nothing to lose here.
Speaker 2: That makes them supers were as Minnesota, I think, is
Speaker 2: the opposite their team that is playing tens. They had
Speaker 2: to bench Jobs. You don't know about Jefferson. I jumped
Speaker 2: on this one early in the three and a half
Speaker 2: from Cincy, But what do you see in this one?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm right there with you. The Josh Jobs experience, unfortunately,
Speaker 4: was at a high a couple of weeks ago, is
Speaker 4: now cratering back down to earth. The Vikings defense is legit,
Speaker 4: I think. I mean what Brian Flores has done with
Speaker 4: the team that didn't have a lot of playmakers on
Speaker 4: defense to start the season. Are are playing great. They
Speaker 4: have allowed a success rate over forty percent just once
Speaker 4: since Week eight. That that was against Denver. The thing
Speaker 4: that I'm struggling with here is Jake Browning has an
Speaker 4: eighty four point seven PFF grade against the Blitz this year,
Speaker 4: which is the third best. We know the Vikings love
Speaker 4: to blitz, and I think it's a little bit different
Speaker 4: than some of the other teams that Browning has faced
Speaker 4: so far. If I had to lean one way, it
Speaker 4: would be Cincinnati because I think their offense is the
Speaker 4: probably possibly the best unit out here. But I can't
Speaker 4: click either side of this right now.
Speaker 2: I think the under is intriguing for this game too.
Speaker 2: Thirty nine and a half is a good size number. However,
Speaker 2: with the way that you know Browning's been able to
Speaker 2: make plays with his legs too and extend some of
Speaker 2: these plays of times here pat and look he's getting
Speaker 2: used out of these other weapons he's got. It feels
Speaker 2: like if this was on the road, I might feel
Speaker 2: very differently about it. I might be even more concerned.
Speaker 2: But in Cincinnati a little bit shorter week, I feel
Speaker 2: like the Cincinnati Bengals are the more dangerous squad right now.
Speaker 1: But what do you think.
Speaker 3: I agree with you, Joe, and I do like the
Speaker 3: under two because the Vikings are down on firepower. I mean,
Speaker 3: like the Josh Dobbs thing just hasn't worked, so it's
Speaker 3: gonna be Nick Mullins justin Jefferson very questionable for this game,
Speaker 3: and no Alexander Madison, so they're down to Ty Chandler
Speaker 3: running back, and then you've got Jake brown And going
Speaker 3: up against the Brian Flora's defense, And yes, he has
Speaker 3: grated out well against the blitz but let's face it,
Speaker 3: they caught their opponents in a couple of blitzes this
Speaker 3: past week with little dumped offs to Chase brown that
Speaker 3: one that went for a really long touchdown and another
Speaker 3: that went for like a twenty five yard game or so.
Speaker 3: So you know, before we throw too many buquets at
Speaker 3: the feet of Jake Browning, like, I'm not totally convinced
Speaker 3: that he is just going to move the ball at
Speaker 3: will against a defense that has really overachieved this year
Speaker 3: and has one of the best defensive master minds in
Speaker 3: the game dialing up the play. So I like the
Speaker 3: under here more than I like either side. But if
Speaker 3: I was going to better side, I would bet the Bengals.
Speaker 4: I think. I think. Yeah, a lot of Jake Browning's
Speaker 4: was passing production has come after the catch. I mean,
Speaker 4: you've seen the Chase brown screen that Pat mentioned some
Speaker 4: of the after catch stuff that Jamar Chase has had.
Speaker 4: So I know we don't typically talk player pops here,
Speaker 4: but depending on the line for Shake Browning's passing yards.
Speaker 4: I think the under could be in play.
Speaker 2: All right, Let's move to the midday game on that
Speaker 2: Saturday slate of NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers somehow seven and six,
Speaker 2: somehow on the inside of the playoff picture. Don't ask
Speaker 2: me how after the last two weeks thing on these
Speaker 2: seven and six Indianapolis Colts. This one in Indy, Indy
Speaker 2: is two and a half point favorites at home. Forty
Speaker 2: two is the consensus number. You're getting plus one fifteen
Speaker 2: for the Pittsburgh upset on the money line fits.
Speaker 1: It's two weeks in a row.
Speaker 2: We're watching the Pittsburgh Steelers here just lose to bad teams. Now,
Speaker 2: can they get it together and go on the road
Speaker 2: and win in Indy? It seems like a tall order
Speaker 2: to me.
Speaker 5: Oh goodness, I don't know, Joe.
Speaker 3: I've got both teams coming off bad losses. I mean,
Speaker 3: the Steelers drop a home game to the Patriots forgettness sakes,
Speaker 3: and the Colts played probably their worst game of the
Speaker 3: season against the Bengals in losing by twenty two backup quarterback.
Speaker 5: So I don't know.
Speaker 3: I've just been burned by both of these teams before Honestly,
Speaker 3: there are also six college bowl games on Saturday. I
Speaker 3: might be flicking around to some of the bowl games
Speaker 3: during this.
Speaker 1: One, understandable.
Speaker 2: And don't forget we've got bowl coverage here with Thor
Speaker 2: and Scott Bogman on our channel as well. We're always
Speaker 2: prepared for all the college football stuff.
Speaker 1: Sam.
Speaker 2: This one feels a little gross. But if you're talking
Speaker 2: about trends, talking about directions of teams, right, Pittsburgh certainly
Speaker 2: feels like a team that's going in a negative direction
Speaker 2: like that just can't get out of their own way.
Speaker 2: They can't win games at home. Now, is this is
Speaker 2: a unique opportunity where you say, to heck with a
Speaker 2: trend and you go ahead and bet agains that makes
Speaker 2: some money here, or do you stick with the trend
Speaker 2: and go with Indy.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna stick with Indy here. We get Mitch Trubisky
Speaker 4: again on Saturday. In relief of blanking on this, both TJ.
Speaker 4: Watt and Alex Highsmith for the Steelers defense are in
Speaker 4: concussion protocol. Now they get the extra rest, so it
Speaker 4: might be a little easier for them to come back
Speaker 4: from that, but Indianapolis continues to dictate the pass and
Speaker 4: pass quite a bit over expectation in the last couple
Speaker 4: of days. And this is a Steelers defense that just
Speaker 4: got roasted by Bailey Zappi with three wide receivers active
Speaker 4: for them. So I like the Colts here. I still
Speaker 4: think again, I've mentioned it every single week, but Shane
Speaker 4: stike In, from a procedural standpoint outweighs Mike Tomlin at
Speaker 4: this point. So I like getting Indy e at minus
Speaker 4: two and a half right now.
Speaker 2: You can get India on the money line at minus
Speaker 2: one thirty five. So if you want to put that
Speaker 2: together with let's say Michael Pittman, I don't know, Amy
Speaker 2: over on receptions something another, gimme like that, it's a
Speaker 2: good way to push this right into the positive. I
Speaker 2: think that would be a very smart little duo. Bet
Speaker 2: Denver is the nightcap against the Detroit Lions. This one's
Speaker 2: in Detroit. Detroit is four point favorites for this game.
Speaker 2: Forty six and a half is the number plus one
Speaker 2: seventy five for the Denver Broncos money line. Now, I
Speaker 2: keep pushing the Denver Broncos in my videos, keep pushing
Speaker 2: for them to make the playoffs. I think you're still
Speaker 2: getting plus one forty most spots for that. I think
Speaker 2: Denver smells an opportunity here and Detroit is reeling. I
Speaker 2: know they're going back home. I know we should be
Speaker 2: looking at Detroit really maybe as the get right game,
Speaker 2: but Sam, I can't get there. I like the Denver
Speaker 2: Broncos defense more. I'm on Denver on the money line
Speaker 2: two weeks in a row.
Speaker 1: Here, where are you?
Speaker 4: I think Denver is the side right now, though, I
Speaker 4: just don't want to bet it quite frankly, because I
Speaker 4: still don't believe in this Broncos defense. Despite the fact
Speaker 4: that they haven't allowed more than twenty two points in
Speaker 4: h straight games, they are still thirtieth in defensive DVOA.
Speaker 4: They're twenty fourth in defensive rating according to Impredictable, which
Speaker 4: uses future betting lines for that. And so I that
Speaker 4: said that, the Lions offense just looks out of funk.
Speaker 4: I don't really know what's going on. Ben Johnson had
Speaker 4: some interesting formations. You know, he's lining up. I'm on
Speaker 4: Ross Saint Brown out of the backfield, had a handoff
Speaker 4: to Sam look out of the fullback position there. But
Speaker 4: I could see this game going just a number of
Speaker 4: different ways. I could see the Lions getting back into
Speaker 4: things and blowing the brakes off of Denver. But I
Speaker 4: just I don't really believe in the Broncos offense enough
Speaker 4: to necessarily keep them in contention.
Speaker 2: Pat, how do you see this one, this nightcap game,
Speaker 2: because this one certainly I think has everybody's attention. Also
Speaker 2: out of conference games too, you know, wacky things can
Speaker 2: happen sometimes.
Speaker 3: When I looked at the lines on Sunday Night Show,
Speaker 3: there were only two games I was motivated to bet
Speaker 3: early and one was getting the better team in this
Speaker 3: matchup and four points, So I was happy to take
Speaker 3: the Broncos in this one. And the line's already gone
Speaker 3: down to three and a half, so I'm glad I
Speaker 3: got it at four. Detroit is just reeling and they're
Speaker 3: having a hard time getting the train back on the
Speaker 3: tracks right now. Not only has their defense just gone
Speaker 3: to hell, I mean they are getting firebombed through the
Speaker 3: air and they're not anywhere close to the impregnable run
Speaker 3: defense they had early in the season. But Jared Goff
Speaker 3: has really struggled too. They do have the run game,
Speaker 3: and they are going against a Denver run defense that
Speaker 3: look Denver's really picked it up against the pass, but
Speaker 3: against the run they're still pretty bad. So I could
Speaker 3: see a scenario where the Lions run all over the Broncos,
Speaker 3: which is why Joe, I kind of want to take
Speaker 3: this game and take the points rather than bet the
Speaker 3: money line. Like, if I'm getting a field goal or
Speaker 3: more with the Broncos, I think that's amazing value and
Speaker 3: I want to take advantage. I don't hate your money
Speaker 3: line bet, and I might even be motivated to throw
Speaker 3: a little something on that later in the week, but
Speaker 3: for now, give me the points and give me the
Speaker 3: hotter and better team right now with the Broncos.
Speaker 2: Hey, oh plus months every five is just enough where
Speaker 2: I'm very intrigued there. But you're right, the safer bet
Speaker 2: is definitely the four. On the Denver side, Tampa finds
Speaker 2: himself at the top of the NFC South, so once
Speaker 2: again nobody wants to win that division. Just like last year,
Speaker 2: they are six and seven. The Green Bay Packers are hot.
Speaker 2: We'll see they do a Monday night. They are six
Speaker 2: and six. Right now, they are three and a half
Speaker 2: point favorites at home. This feels right. Forty two and
Speaker 2: a half is the number. Plus one fifty for Tampa.
Speaker 2: On the money line, Pat Love has played really well
Speaker 2: the last three weeks, eight touchdowns, no picks. We'll see
Speaker 2: again what Monday brings. But the one thing you can
Speaker 2: do certainly is throw on this team. So is it
Speaker 2: safe here to maybe take the Packers and take maybe
Speaker 2: some Jordan Love passing overs and kind of play this
Speaker 2: one safe?
Speaker 3: I think the Packers are safe, Joe. About the passing overs,
Speaker 3: I'm gonna stick a pin in that for now, and
Speaker 3: I'll tell you why. So you know I'm not a
Speaker 3: total Packers homer, Joe, but I do love the Packers
Speaker 3: here and part of the reason for that. I mean,
Speaker 3: home field in the NFL is generally regarded as being
Speaker 3: worth two points in most places these days. For a
Speaker 3: game with a team from Florida traveling up to Green Bay,
Speaker 3: Wisconsin in mid December, I would say that home field
Speaker 3: advantage is probably closer to four points. I mean, we
Speaker 3: know what the field is like up there. A lot
Speaker 3: of teams have trouble getting the right cleats, which is
Speaker 3: something the Packers don't really have issues with. I mean,
Speaker 3: Sam Hoppin is from Green Bay, Wisconsin. Sam tell Joe
Speaker 3: about December in green.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the pride of Green Bay, Sam Hoppin, let's talk
Speaker 2: about this one. What do you think you're confident that
Speaker 2: your boys can handle their business here?
Speaker 4: I am. And to answer Pat's question, it's miserable in
Speaker 4: Green Bay in December. I cannot stress how much you
Speaker 4: should not really be going to Green Bay in December,
Speaker 4: actually December through like mid March. But in any case, Yeah,
Speaker 4: I mean, I think Love is just going to slice
Speaker 4: this defensive part. Desmond Ritter just through for nearly three
Speaker 4: hundred and fifty yards against them. I think Green Bay
Speaker 4: will get both Christian Watson and Aaron Jones back in
Speaker 4: this game, which should help Tampa. Bay also lost both
Speaker 4: Carlton Davis and Ryan Neil in the game against Atlantis,
Speaker 4: that their status is sable for a secondary that was
Speaker 4: already questionable. So I love Green Bay and the Packers.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Joe, by the way, the reason I'm not
Speaker 3: that keen on the Jordan Love over so I just like,
Speaker 3: if it's ten below wind Shell, I'm not excited about
Speaker 3: passing over.
Speaker 2: So fair enough, I'm just excited about that secondary coming
Speaker 2: to town at the end of the day. So, and
Speaker 2: if Watson's healthy two that's another one. I like, all right, Atlanta,
Speaker 2: they are six and seven two fighting for that South.
Speaker 1: They're gonna go to Carolina in a game they should win.
Speaker 1: But Desmon Ritter on the road has not been great.
Speaker 1: Carolina's at home.
Speaker 2: They are three point underdogs at home, and they've earned
Speaker 2: at least that thirty five is the number for this game,
Speaker 2: minus one sixty eight on the Atlanta side, plus one
Speaker 2: forty on Carolina. This is a tricky one here, Sam,
Speaker 2: because this feels kind of trappy in a lot of ways.
Speaker 2: Your trust level of Atlanta on the road has certainly
Speaker 2: been I would say all of us cautious to say
Speaker 2: the least. So do you have any early leans on
Speaker 2: this one or you're just gonna walk away?
Speaker 4: I hate that. My early lean is the Falcons. But
Speaker 4: the Saints, who we're going to talk about here in
Speaker 4: a minute, played terribly against the against the Panthers and
Speaker 4: still blew them out. I mean, like this, the Panthers
Speaker 4: are just a complete mess right now. The Atlanta defense
Speaker 4: has shut down the inferior imponents that they've played lately
Speaker 4: in the Saints, the Bucks, and the Jets. So again,
Speaker 4: it is little trust, as I have in Desmond Ritter
Speaker 4: and Arthur Smith. I think the Falcons should have no
Speaker 4: issue taking care of business.
Speaker 1: Fitz.
Speaker 2: I'm surprised you're not getting a bigger number here, like
Speaker 2: a plus one to eighty or even plus two hundred
Speaker 2: for the Panthers to win this football game, which is
Speaker 2: what gives me hesitation here a little bit too, Like
Speaker 2: what do they know here that's going on that I
Speaker 2: don't have a beat on. This is just a weird
Speaker 2: one to me. It feels like a bad situation for Atlanta.
Speaker 2: But to Sam's point, Carolina just can't get out of
Speaker 2: their own way, and from a leadership standpoint, they don't
Speaker 2: seem to.
Speaker 1: Have any no.
Speaker 3: But the Falcons often can't get out of their own
Speaker 3: way either, So I think that's why maybe there's hesitation to,
Speaker 3: you know, put bet money on the Falcons and drive
Speaker 3: up this line, and why I think we might see
Speaker 3: it stick close to three. It just feels like Arthur
Speaker 3: Smith is Wiley Coyote opening the package from the ACME company,
Speaker 3: Like I just yeah, Like I agree with Sam, like
Speaker 3: first instinct, bet the Falcons, but then I think about it,
Speaker 3: and I don't want to bet the Falcons.
Speaker 2: Well, make sure whatever your betting. Make sure you make
Speaker 2: all your bets count and make sure you're downloading the
Speaker 2: Betting Pros app use all the tools here, and of
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Speaker 2: good time because if you have iOS the first three
Speaker 2: days you get that premium version for freeze, you can
Speaker 2: really check out all the bells and whistles. This is
Speaker 2: a great weekend to do it too, to download it
Speaker 2: because you got Saturday football, you got the Bowl games
Speaker 2: like Fisy was talking about, You've got the Sunday NFL,
Speaker 2: Monday NFL forget it. We are busy not to mention
Speaker 2: all the NBA stuff too, so make sure you're using that,
Speaker 2: and get.
Speaker 1: In on our NFL contest too.
Speaker 2: Just click the community tab go in there, or go
Speaker 2: to Bettingpros dot com slash NFL contest. We're still doing
Speaker 2: weekly prizes, monthly prizes, so get in on that as well. Now,
Speaker 2: this next game is gonna be interesting to see if
Speaker 2: I can entice either of you on New Orleans is
Speaker 2: six point favorites at home against the New York Giants,
Speaker 2: who have not been good this year. We're gonna see
Speaker 2: what happens with the Giants tonight and Tommy Devido the
Speaker 2: Pride of New Jersey. Thirty six and a half is
Speaker 2: the number for this one plus two fifteen on the
Speaker 2: money line for the Giants, FITZI, I gotta say my
Speaker 2: early lean is Giants money line. Like I'm just kind
Speaker 2: of throwing into the chaos and I'm gonna lean into it,
Speaker 2: which feels like I look at the Saints and I
Speaker 2: just can't see them as a six point favorite almost
Speaker 2: against anybody. So if I'm gonna go play, I might
Speaker 2: as well go hard. That's my early lean for this game.
Speaker 1: What's yours?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't have an early lean for this game, Joe,
Speaker 3: But I can totally understand that perspective. I mean, I
Speaker 3: think by the measure of most power rankings, the Giants
Speaker 3: are I think I think there's still ahead of the
Speaker 3: Panthers as far as being regarded as worst in the
Speaker 3: league in terms of DVOA and like Massy Peabody, you know,
Speaker 3: Sam could fact check me on that one. But even
Speaker 3: though the Giants may be regarded as the worst team
Speaker 3: in the league, You're right, I do not want to
Speaker 3: give six points to anyone with the Saints, and like,
Speaker 3: look at how that offense has just struggled, like they're just.
Speaker 5: Incapable of getting the ball into the end zone.
Speaker 3: It seems like a lot of the times when they
Speaker 3: get down to the red zone on third and eight,
Speaker 3: like we're seeing Derek Carr throw short of the sticks
Speaker 3: all the time, or constantly under duress with the pass rush.
Speaker 5: Like this offense is just gross.
Speaker 3: So no, I do not want to lay points with
Speaker 3: the Saints by any means, But I'm also not totally
Speaker 3: sure I want to bet the money line and endorse
Speaker 3: the Giants here.
Speaker 2: Joe, all right, well, maybe I can sell you guys
Speaker 2: on the plus six here at side of the Giants
Speaker 2: at the mines one ten. Sam, is that something I
Speaker 2: can interest you for Week fifteen?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean sure, Like I don't think Tommy DeVito
Speaker 4: at this point is the worst starting quarterback in the league.
Speaker 4: I mean.
Speaker 1: Very low in the last month it has.
Speaker 4: Been, especially with all the quarterback turnover. But why is
Speaker 4: Derek Carr still starting? I mean a week after leaving
Speaker 4: a game with a concussion, with a neck injury, a
Speaker 4: rib fracture. Like any he just goes out and just
Speaker 4: isn't isn't capable of producing. There was a report this
Speaker 4: morning that Carr had suffered three different rib fractures this year,
Speaker 4: two of which nobody even knew about until he told reporters.
Speaker 4: And so, I you're right, like the Saints really shouldn't
Speaker 4: be favored by this many points against any other team
Speaker 4: in the NFL. Maybe maybe the Panthers, But it's that's
Speaker 4: way too many points for me to lay with with
Speaker 4: Derek Carr and the Saints.
Speaker 2: Now here's an intriguing one Houston seven to six going
Speaker 2: to Tennessee four and eight. Now, obviously the calculus has
Speaker 2: changed her quite a bit with that injury.
Speaker 1: Here to the quarterback situation. CJ.
Speaker 2: Stroud questionable for that game obviously cancussion protocol after that
Speaker 2: game with the Jets where he hit his head on
Speaker 2: the turf. They are two point underdogs going to Tennessee,
Speaker 2: which feels kind of right right now is like a
Speaker 2: holder situation. Thirty seven and a half is the number
Speaker 2: here on the total plus one h five on.
Speaker 1: The money line for Houston.
Speaker 2: So Sam, this is one of those again, there's early
Speaker 2: value to be had depending on how you see things
Speaker 2: going out in the future. Here to me, the biggest
Speaker 2: one is potentially that under at thirty seven and a half.
Speaker 2: That's the one that I want to jump in on,
Speaker 2: and I want to jump in early. But what do
Speaker 2: you think about this game?
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's probably the right side from the total perspective.
Speaker 4: I think if the Texans do get Davis Mills in
Speaker 4: this game, they'll probably lean on the run a little
Speaker 4: bit more. But again, like going back to what I
Speaker 4: mentioned earlier in the show with respect to Easton Stick, Like,
Speaker 4: I don't think Davis Mills is the worst backup to
Speaker 4: He has some experience, has shown some flashes, and this
Speaker 4: Titans pass defense is among the worst in the league. Yeah,
Speaker 4: it's a little up in the air as to whether
Speaker 4: Stroud comes back from the concussion he left in the
Speaker 4: middle of the fourth quarter. There wasn't really a reason
Speaker 4: to bring him back into the game even if he
Speaker 4: was cleared, given the score of that game. But we've seen,
Speaker 4: for some reason, more players getting cleared from concussion protocol
Speaker 4: more quickly over the last couple of weeks. But the
Speaker 4: hit that he took with the whiplash looked not great
Speaker 4: at all. So I think we get Davis Mills just
Speaker 4: as in an abundance of caution from Houston, saving their
Speaker 4: franchise quarterback from getting hurt anymore. But I still think
Speaker 4: Houston is the better team. I think I like the
Speaker 4: money line for Houston as well. Their defense has continued
Speaker 4: to play pretty well as well. I think Will Anderson
Speaker 4: might have left that get the game, so hopefully he's
Speaker 4: healthy too. But I just don't see much going right
Speaker 4: for Tennessee lately.
Speaker 1: Texans Titans fits any early thoughts.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I kind of agree with both of you guys,
Speaker 3: show I do like the under on this game because
Speaker 3: even though day Mills is not like one of the
Speaker 3: worst backup quarterbacks in the league, he is going to
Speaker 3: be without Tanked l and probably without Nico Collins too,
Speaker 3: so that really limits the Texans passing game. And then
Speaker 3: you've got the Titans with their you know, mediocre offensive line,
Speaker 3: rookie quarterback, aging running back. So I don't see a
Speaker 3: lot of points going up in this game. And I
Speaker 3: do think there's value on the Texans. Like, first of all,
Speaker 3: you're not drawing dead if CJ. Stroud doesn't play on
Speaker 3: this bet, because Davis Mills is a decent backup quarterback,
Speaker 3: But what if CJ. Stroud does clear concussion protocol plays
Speaker 3: in this game? And then all of a sudden, you're
Speaker 3: getting two points going up against Will Levis and the Titans.
Speaker 3: So I'm happy to plunk down some money on the
Speaker 3: money line on this one, and you know, take my
Speaker 3: chances if it's Mills and feel pretty good about it.
Speaker 5: If it's CJ.
Speaker 1: Stroud, that's fair, that's fair.
Speaker 2: This is the time to do that. If that's the
Speaker 2: future you think is gonna happen. The future for this
Speaker 2: next game, this is another four outcome game for me.
Speaker 2: This one is my walk away this week, at least
Speaker 2: so far. I can't wait to hear your insights on
Speaker 2: this one. The Cleveland Browns are eight and five taking
Speaker 2: on the Bears five and eight. This one's in Cleveland.
Speaker 2: Cleveland is three point favorites at minus one fourteen. That's
Speaker 2: the consensus line at betting Pros. Thirty eight is the
Speaker 2: consensus number. And then plus one forty.
Speaker 1: Five for Chicago.
Speaker 2: Now, I know we were very bullish last week on Chicago,
Speaker 2: whose defense is played better.
Speaker 1: Field has made some plays.
Speaker 2: Some creativity in the offense there with DJ Moore has
Speaker 2: been fun. But the Cleveland Browns defense continues to be
Speaker 2: a very strong unit. Joe Flacco is the starter of
Speaker 2: the rest of the season. So FITZI any early value
Speaker 2: on this one between the Browns and the Bears.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Joe, we talked a little bit about this one earlier.
Speaker 3: I like the Bears here. I mean, yes, the defense
Speaker 3: has been lights out, but boy, ever since the Bears
Speaker 3: acquired Montese Sweat at the trade deadline. Like the Bears
Speaker 3: run defense had been pretty good before that, now their
Speaker 3: pass defense is very good. Also, as you mentioned, they've
Speaker 3: gotten healthier in the secondary two, which has helped. But
Speaker 3: like right now, the Bears have a top ten defense,
Speaker 3: so I think they can hang in this one. I
Speaker 3: think they can create some problems for Joe Flacco, who
Speaker 3: we know can move the ball but will also make
Speaker 3: some mistakes if you force him into it. And I
Speaker 3: think the Bears are capable of forcing Flacco into mistakes.
Speaker 5: So yeah.
Speaker 3: Add the fields to Dj moore Magic, which, like those
Speaker 3: guys are hooking up for big plays every week, and
Speaker 3: I think Dj Moore is capable of beating these Browns cornerbacks.
Speaker 3: Even though maybe the best all around group of cornerbacks
Speaker 3: in the league. This could actually be an entertaining game,
Speaker 3: although I think maybe the under is the better percentage
Speaker 3: play here than the over because both of these defense
Speaker 3: says are terrific or have been terrific lately.
Speaker 2: Sam, this one's tougher for me because I dig what
Speaker 2: fits a saying. But the Bears on the road is
Speaker 2: where I start to get a little iffy, Like that's
Speaker 2: where I'm not as confident. But what about you when
Speaker 2: you're looking at this game here between the Browns and Bears,
Speaker 2: do you see this the same as fits or maybe different?
Speaker 4: I don't have a much much of a read on
Speaker 4: this game. The Browns defense has shown some gaps the
Speaker 4: last couple of days, or excuse me, the last couple
Speaker 4: of games. Their advanced stats are still encouraging. Instead of
Speaker 4: this game, I want to tease a little bit of
Speaker 4: a long shot bet on on the Browns to win
Speaker 4: the AFC at thirty five to one. I know it
Speaker 4: sounds crazy.
Speaker 1: It doesn't outside actually, outside of.
Speaker 4: The Dolphs likes they control their own destiny to get
Speaker 4: into the playoffs. I think there's still an outside a
Speaker 4: good chance that they could win the division. Given their
Speaker 4: schedule and the Ravens play the Jaguars, forty nine Ers
Speaker 4: and Dolphins in their next three games. That are not
Speaker 4: all guarantees, so they could come away with the division win.
Speaker 4: They've beaten the excuse me, the Ravens and the forty
Speaker 4: nine ers. Granted when the forty nine ers were banged up,
Speaker 4: but yeah, but.
Speaker 1: They banged them up. The it's not loose sight of that.
Speaker 2: They're the physical football team that banged up that offensive
Speaker 2: line of the forty nine ers.
Speaker 4: I'm just saying, for a team that looks like they're
Speaker 4: going to get into the playoffs, the defense could carry
Speaker 4: them a couple of things go their way. Joe Flacco
Speaker 4: is not playing the worst quarterbacking by any means right now,
Speaker 4: so just just a.
Speaker 2: Little I don't think it's crazy man, defense travels. They
Speaker 2: got a good head coach. I don't think that's nuts
Speaker 2: at all. I think the AFC is open for business.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there is no like three hundred pound gorilla in
Speaker 3: the AFC. Like, all these teams have their flaws. I mean,
Speaker 3: look at the Chiefs. The Chiefs are struggling to score
Speaker 3: points and.
Speaker 2: Last night is a perfect example of that fact. You know, Yeah,
Speaker 2: nobody's really run away with the AFC. Even the Ravens
Speaker 2: at the top right now, they don't feel.
Speaker 5: Like struggle to put away the Rams at home, right,
Speaker 5: exactly right.
Speaker 2: And the next one here we're gonna talk about Miami,
Speaker 2: which is a team you and I were talking about fits,
Speaker 2: which is they've beaten every team they're supposed to be
Speaker 2: and they haven't punched up one time to any of
Speaker 2: the teams that are theoretically better than them or more experienced.
Speaker 2: So this is that after this game here against the Jets,
Speaker 2: their schedule obviously becomes very different. You're starting to look
Speaker 2: at them having to take on the Bills, they're gonna
Speaker 2: have to take on the Cowboys, They're going to take
Speaker 2: on some better teams and see if they can actually
Speaker 2: get some w's. But they're another one too that I
Speaker 2: think has a shot to win the AFC. Their twelve
Speaker 2: point favorites at home against the Jets. I know Zach
Speaker 2: Wilson had himself a day against the Texans, but I
Speaker 2: don't know if that's something we can bet on weekly.
Speaker 2: Forty and a half is the number for this game,
Speaker 2: plus four seventy five for the Jets to win. Sam,
Speaker 2: We'll start with you on this one, Miami, New York.
Speaker 2: Can Miami cover this twelve That's the question.
Speaker 4: I think they can. They took care of business against
Speaker 4: the Jets on Black Friday just a couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 4: and there's not really much that has changed. Obviously, they
Speaker 4: lost Jalen Phillips in that game, which which changes things
Speaker 4: a little bit, and Zach Wilson is going to be
Speaker 4: the quarterback instead of Tim Boyle. But twelve right now
Speaker 4: feels like a little bit too much. I mean, the
Speaker 4: Jets defense still can carry its weight by by every
Speaker 4: measure that they've faced, So I'm staying away from this
Speaker 4: one right now.
Speaker 1: Fitz.
Speaker 2: They didn't have a chan though for that Black Friday game,
Speaker 2: and I think that's the X factor to me that
Speaker 2: makes me feel much more comfortable at the twelve in
Speaker 2: this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, can the Jets ugly it up and
Speaker 3: keep this one close? Like I think they're capable of it.
Speaker 3: I know it didn't work out on Black Friday, but
Speaker 3: I don't know, Like, it wouldn't shock me to see
Speaker 3: the Jets make this a close game, and it wouldn't
Speaker 3: shock me to see the Jets lose by three touchdowns.
Speaker 3: And you know, like, I don't think we're going to
Speaker 3: get another Haley's Comet game from Zach Wilson where he
Speaker 3: seventy five percent of his passes for three hundred yards.
Speaker 1: And not so.
Speaker 3: Yeah, man, I just like this, This line seems right.
Speaker 3: And I thought about this total, like, what do you
Speaker 3: do with this high powered offense running up a route
Speaker 3: against a really really good pass defense and with the
Speaker 3: Jets having so much trouble putting points on the board
Speaker 3: themselves most weeks. Yeah, forty and a half does seem
Speaker 3: like the right number here. So I just I don't
Speaker 3: see any value here.
Speaker 1: I look at Miami at the twelve.
Speaker 2: That's what I'm looking at because I think the way
Speaker 2: the Jets have not been able to handle the run
Speaker 2: this year. If I'm them, I'm just running the football
Speaker 2: down their throats. I'm getting those guys out there on
Speaker 2: jet sweeps too, like Tyreek Hill.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm doing. I'm attacking. See. The thing that
Speaker 1: Miami can do is attack the Jets at their.
Speaker 2: Weakness, their strike, those their secondary So when you can
Speaker 2: have those guys underneath quick, when you can have those
Speaker 2: guys getting those jet sweeps.
Speaker 1: To me, that's the X factor, especially with.
Speaker 2: The e chan back, that is the tough thing for
Speaker 2: me where I think the Jets are going to have
Speaker 2: a hard time in Miami. The Kansasity Chiefs have been
Speaker 2: having a hard time lately with the referees, with their
Speaker 2: wide receivers, with Garius Tony on numerous numerous reasons, the
Speaker 2: drops the off sides. But they are eight and they're
Speaker 2: gonna travel to New England. They're nine and a half
Speaker 2: point favorites in this game. Thirty seven and a half
Speaker 2: is the number New England on the money lines. Plus
Speaker 2: three fifty now fits the Kansasity Chiefs have to get right.
Speaker 2: This feels like a get right game here the Newing
Speaker 2: The Patriots are not a good football team. They had
Speaker 2: a wacky game on Thursday against the Steelers. I'm not
Speaker 2: again gonna copy and paste that here and think that
Speaker 2: they're gonna give the Chiefs problems. However, nine and a
Speaker 2: half does feel like a big number. Therefore, Yah, do
Speaker 2: you like New England on that side?
Speaker 3: I'm tempted by New England and if I were forced
Speaker 3: a bet this one, and I am forced about it
Speaker 3: in some pools where I have to pick every game
Speaker 3: against the spread, So I'm not gonna put my own
Speaker 3: money on this one, but I am going to take
Speaker 3: the Patriots and the points in these pools, and like,
Speaker 3: can you believe we have a total this low for
Speaker 3: Kansas City Chiefs game thirty seven and a half.
Speaker 2: No, I mean, look, it's it's their inability to It's
Speaker 2: like everything you've watched with the Chiefs in the last
Speaker 2: few years, where there are the team where things go
Speaker 2: right in these matches, things happen, he's great plays in
Speaker 2: these great moments.
Speaker 1: None of that's happened.
Speaker 2: This year, and none of it in the last couple
Speaker 2: of games. And that's been the problem. What about Sam
Speaker 2: Hoppins money? You want to bet him his money on
Speaker 2: this game at all? Is that of yours?
Speaker 4: I mean, I think that's what you like. I think
Speaker 4: here is the Patriots. I mean you can get them
Speaker 4: at plus ten in some places right now. Again with
Speaker 4: this low of a total. I tweeted this out this morning,
Speaker 4: but the Chiefs are one loss away from going under
Speaker 4: their preseason win total for the first time since Andy
Speaker 4: Reid became coach, which again sort of tells you, like
Speaker 4: the over on their win total was the freest money
Speaker 4: that you could find for the past several years. And
Speaker 4: I've got a Chiefs over eleven and a half win
Speaker 4: ticket right now, and I'm sweating this out with the
Speaker 4: remaining schedule that they have and where they're at now.
Speaker 4: But and with such a low total, a double digit
Speaker 4: spread is what you want to be looking at. It's,
Speaker 4: you know, regardless of you know, the teams that are playing,
Speaker 4: because the Chiefs do not look like themselves.
Speaker 2: They don't, they don't, and New England has been very
Speaker 2: good against the run, not that that's necessarily what they
Speaker 2: want to do. We'll see if they get to check
Speaker 2: go back for this game, but lots of unknowns. I
Speaker 2: think we're all in agreement here. Maybe that nine and
Speaker 2: a half on New England's way to go. Kansas City
Speaker 2: wins this game, but I don't know, man, they just
Speaker 2: can't keep going in this direction, can they. Washington coming
Speaker 2: off of buye, they're four to nine taking on the
Speaker 2: Rams in LA.
Speaker 1: They are six and seven.
Speaker 2: They almost almost took out the Baltimore Ravens, but they
Speaker 2: fell short in overtime. Six and a half point favorites,
Speaker 2: though that seems like a lot.
Speaker 1: To me for the Rams.
Speaker 2: Forty nine is the number plus two forty five for Washington. Now,
Speaker 2: the value on this board is very clear. It's the
Speaker 2: Washington upset. So, Sam, is that where you're at or
Speaker 2: do you feel like maybe just take Washington with the six,
Speaker 2: or maybe you think the Rams are you know, now
Speaker 2: a force to be reckoned with.
Speaker 4: Perhaps I don't know that they are a force to
Speaker 4: be reckoned with. But the Rams have played very impressively.
Speaker 4: I mean, obviously lost the game against the Ravens in overtime,
Speaker 4: but there are I think few quarterbacks playing and throwing
Speaker 4: the ball as well as Matthew Stafford right now. You know,
Speaker 4: Cooper Cup and Pook Poka Naku with probably the catch
Speaker 4: of the year without any gloves in a rain game
Speaker 4: on Sunday. I love the Rams in this spot. Their
Speaker 4: their defense is still a little suspect, but Aaron Donald's
Speaker 4: just going to tear apart the inside of that Commander's
Speaker 4: offensive line. And Sean McVeigh just a clear, clear tier
Speaker 4: above Ron Rivera right now. And in terms of coaching,
Speaker 4: so I love the Rams here. I think again, teasing
Speaker 4: them down to half a point or minus a half
Speaker 4: point is is a great way to play this game too.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the thing. It just six and a half
Speaker 2: does feel like a bit much to me. That's some
Speaker 2: good advice. Pat you in agreement with Sam.
Speaker 5: Sam hit on it.
Speaker 3: At first I thought the Commanders might make an interesting
Speaker 3: money line bet, and then I thought about the Ron
Speaker 3: Rivera versus Sean McVay coaching matchup, and I had second
Speaker 3: thoughts about that money line bet.
Speaker 5: So this seems like a good line.
Speaker 3: I just as functional as this Rams offense has been,
Speaker 3: in as pleasant as surprise as the Rams have been,
Speaker 3: I really don't want to lay six and a half
Speaker 3: points with them, even to the Commanders whose defense struggles.
Speaker 3: I do think we're gonna see points in this game,
Speaker 3: Like I don't know if we'll get over this, this
Speaker 3: big number forty nine, but like we're gonna see points
Speaker 3: this Washington secondary, those cornerbacks trying to hang with Pooka
Speaker 3: Naku and Cooper Cup.
Speaker 5: Man, I don't see that happening.
Speaker 1: How do see it either?
Speaker 2: And I think the thing that broke me towards Sam
Speaker 2: and the being more comfortable with the Rams here is
Speaker 2: the mistake that's coming eventually in this game here with
Speaker 2: Sam Howe hosting them a touchdown and that defensive score,
Speaker 2: that defensive turnover in their own side of the field
Speaker 2: with a short field, that would probably be the seven
Speaker 2: points that I'm looking for in this game, and I
Speaker 2: think you are going to get that. Therefore, I think
Speaker 2: the Rams are probably the right side of this, even
Speaker 2: though that number is a little larger than we're used
Speaker 2: to with the Rams. And to your points, him Stafford
Speaker 2: played really well in that game and he looked very sharp.
Speaker 2: So that was a good thing to see the Arizona Cardinals.
Speaker 2: Not a good thing to see for them at home
Speaker 2: San Francisco. Forty nine ers come into town. Thirteen and
Speaker 2: a half is the number on this one. San Frian
Speaker 2: obviously ahead on this one. They are minus thirteen and
Speaker 2: a half favorites. Forty seven is the number plus six
Speaker 2: hundred for the Arizona money line. To me, the most
Speaker 2: complete team in the NFL right now is the forty
Speaker 2: nine ers. They went there, they handled their business last week,
Speaker 2: and they did not have a letdown game against Seattle
Speaker 2: after it this week, which was I think very important
Speaker 2: to see that they are focused right. They went out
Speaker 2: there and they kicked the crap out of Seattle too,
Speaker 2: and they continue to play very physically. I just don't
Speaker 2: think Arizona's up for this task. Pat and I know
Speaker 2: it's a big number, but do you think Arizona can
Speaker 2: cover it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Oh gosh, I don't know, Joe. I just I
Speaker 3: hate lines like this. I mean, this is like trying
Speaker 3: to decide whether to you know, take Alabama and lay
Speaker 3: thirty nine and a half points to McNeese State, or
Speaker 3: take Michigan and lay thirty five to Eastern Illino.
Speaker 1: Then what about the forty seven?
Speaker 2: What is that something where confident that they get the
Speaker 2: thirty and the Arizona can scratch out seventeen.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not confident in the Cardinals doing their part.
Speaker 3: So this just I hate games like this because you
Speaker 3: can get back toward in again like this so easily
Speaker 3: if you bet the forty nine ers, and you know, like,
Speaker 3: I don't want to bet the Cardinals because I'm not
Speaker 3: confident they can make this a game.
Speaker 5: So I'm just gonna walk away from this one.
Speaker 2: Right, Fitzy's walking away, Sam, you're walking away or you're
Speaker 2: walking towards it.
Speaker 4: No, I'm walking towards the forty nine ers the sense
Speaker 4: thereby they're on a five game winning streak. Their margin
Speaker 4: of victory in those five games thirty one Jacksonville thirteen
Speaker 4: versus Tampa Bay eighteen at Seattle twenty three at Philadelphia
Speaker 4: and twelve this past week versus Seattle. That you said it.
Speaker 4: They're the most complete team. They have everything going there.
Speaker 4: They're mostly healthy on both sides of the ball, save
Speaker 4: a couple of guys on defense that they're going to
Speaker 4: go and take care business.
Speaker 2: I told Pat, I cash out of my hurts MVP
Speaker 2: on the weekend. I made money on that, made three
Speaker 2: x the money, and I reinvested that money in the
Speaker 2: forty nine ers winning the NFC and winning.
Speaker 1: The Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: And I just think that's right now. I'm looking around.
Speaker 2: I don't see anybody in the AFC that's really for real.
Speaker 2: And the NFC Cowboys are interesting, but again, like cowboys
Speaker 2: gonna go on the road and win a game in
Speaker 2: San fran I don't know.
Speaker 1: That's a tough sell right now for me. Now that
Speaker 1: San France teams.
Speaker 2: That they're in the they are locked in that one
Speaker 2: spot to me, like, I don't think they're gonna give
Speaker 2: that spot up here looking at the schedule. Dallas though,
Speaker 2: coming off a huge win at home, let's give them credit.
Speaker 2: They are ten and three. They go to Buffalo. This
Speaker 2: is a tough game here, right you're waiting you're waiting.
Speaker 1: For the Eagles.
Speaker 2: You got the Eagles, you handle the Eagles. Now you're
Speaker 2: going on the road into the elements a little bit
Speaker 2: here potentially in Buffalo. They are one and a half
Speaker 2: point favorites. Buffalo coming off a game they needed to
Speaker 2: have to stay alive. They are alive at seven and six.
Speaker 2: Forty nine is the number plus one oh five? What
Speaker 2: do you think you're sam you want to go over
Speaker 2: here for this forty nine or is this one maybe
Speaker 2: something that is more underwhelming potentially in terms of total.
Speaker 4: Man the over, that's a lot of points. I think
Speaker 4: you need a lot to go right. The Dallas defense
Speaker 4: looked a little suspect against Seattle in Week thirteen, but
Speaker 4: man Stefan Gilmour played one of the best games that
Speaker 4: he's had in a while. I still think that Cowboys
Speaker 4: defense is legit. Dan Quinn is coaching his tailoff. The
Speaker 4: weather forecast for Buffalo right now is low forties, mid
Speaker 4: forties for this game, so I don't think weather is
Speaker 4: going to be a concern. I don't think Dak should
Speaker 4: have much issue throwing the ball against Buffalo, especially if
Speaker 4: Micah Hyde is out. I like Dallas on the money
Speaker 4: line here, all.
Speaker 2: Right, Dallas on the money line of plus one oh five,
Speaker 2: again not getting too much value on that fits.
Speaker 1: Where do you see this one?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I kind of agree with Sam that maybe the under
Speaker 3: is the way to go here because the Dallas defense
Speaker 3: is so strong and the Buffalo defense isn't bad. Like,
Speaker 3: I think the line is fair, and I wanted to
Speaker 3: think maybe this was another instance where Buffalo's home field
Speaker 3: advantage against a Southern team this time of year might
Speaker 3: be worth more than two. But Sam just kind of
Speaker 3: popped that balloon with his forecast saying that it's not
Speaker 3: going to be too bad in Buffalo this weekend, So
Speaker 3: I don't know. Joe, we talked about the difference between
Speaker 3: the Dolphins and the Bills, and how the Dolphins stomp
Speaker 3: the bad teams and then can't beat the good teams,
Speaker 3: whereas the Bills will occasionally stub their toe against the
Speaker 3: team they should be but man, like they go in
Speaker 3: there like every time the Bills play a good team,
Speaker 3: it's like creed, Yeah, exactly, Like they throw haymakers against
Speaker 3: the good team. So I do think the Bills can
Speaker 3: hang in this one. I'm not interested in betting either
Speaker 3: side to be honest.
Speaker 2: All right, this next one, I am spinning myself in
Speaker 2: circles about Baltimore Jacksonville. Baltimore's three and a half point
Speaker 2: favorites on the road forty three and a half is
Speaker 2: the number plus one fifty for Jacksonville. Now it's clear
Speaker 2: the value is on Jacksonville in the money line to
Speaker 2: win this game outright, to find a way.
Speaker 1: And this is the.
Speaker 2: Typical Baltimore stub your toe game. If we watched the
Speaker 2: Ravens long enough this year in years past to know
Speaker 2: that this is the one that scares me the most.
Speaker 2: This is the game and they should go out there.
Speaker 2: They should win, and frankly, they should take advantage of
Speaker 2: the secondary and take advantage of Trevor Lawrence banged up
Speaker 2: and missing Christian Kirk and missing some other pieces. That
Speaker 2: being said, Pat, I can't. I don't find confidence in
Speaker 2: any of these lines because they all feel spot on
Speaker 2: to me. I don't see any value.
Speaker 1: What do you think I.
Speaker 3: Like the Ravens show. See to me, the Ravens just
Speaker 3: had the toe stubbing game and they averted the toe
Speaker 3: stubbing against the Rams. They almost lost that one, and
Speaker 3: it is pretty rare for the Ravens to play two
Speaker 3: poor games in a row under John harbaught just doesn't
Speaker 3: happen that often. So meanwhile, the Jaguars are not looking
Speaker 3: like the team they were maybe a month month and
Speaker 3: a half ago when they had everything rolling. Trevor Lawrence played,
Speaker 3: Gotta give him credit for the grit, but he didn't
Speaker 3: look right. Three interceptions and like the defense just doesn't see.
Speaker 3: But against the pass, they've been pretty terrible lately. So
Speaker 3: I like the Ravens a lot here.
Speaker 2: All right, how about you, Sam, were looking at Jackson
Speaker 2: of Baltimore?
Speaker 1: What do you see? Yeah?
Speaker 4: Don't have a lean on either side here, but for
Speaker 4: the total I do kind of like the over Neither
Speaker 4: team really plays that fast, but I think both can
Speaker 4: have success passing the ball. Over the last four weeks,
Speaker 4: both of these teams ranked in the top eight in
Speaker 4: passing EPU or play. I think both defenses. The Ravens defense,
Speaker 4: I think it's a little fraudulent, Like I don't totally
Speaker 4: buy what they're selling in the Jacksonville defense obviously just
Speaker 4: got sort of torn apart by Joe Flacco and the Browns.
Speaker 4: So I like to overhear forty three and a half okay, forty.
Speaker 2: Three and a half their last one here, Philly finally
Speaker 2: gets a breather. They're going on the road though, to Seattle,
Speaker 2: so this is another tricky game. Like I feel like
Speaker 2: the Eagles gas tank is on empty.
Speaker 1: Sam.
Speaker 2: They are three and a half point favorites on the
Speaker 2: road against Seattle. Forty eight is the number plus one
Speaker 2: sixty on Seattle money line, Sam, Eagles are the better
Speaker 2: football team. They have just gone up against you heavyweight
Speaker 2: champion after heavyweight champion for about six weeks.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: They should go handle their business. Are you confident that
Speaker 2: they can against Seattle on this Monday night?
Speaker 4: I think they can. I mean I think it largely
Speaker 4: depends on who we get at quarterback for Seattle. It's
Speaker 4: it was kind of a weird thing with Geno Smith
Speaker 4: dealing with a groin injury. It was I think a
Speaker 4: little unexpected towards the end of last week that he
Speaker 4: was was questionable. Obviously didn't play against San Francisco. I
Speaker 4: think we probably get Drew Lock again here. It sounded
Speaker 4: like it was about a two week injury for for
Speaker 4: Gino Smith. So if we get Drew Lock, then I
Speaker 4: love the Eagles here, but I am I'm not totally
Speaker 4: confident that in that and honestly, like Drew Lock could
Speaker 4: have some success against this Eagle secondary.
Speaker 2: All right, fits your thoughts here on this one again
Speaker 2: seems on the surface to be a breather, a get
Speaker 2: right game, a restabilization potentially of the Eagles. Is that
Speaker 2: what we get or do we get something far different
Speaker 2: with the Seattle to team that you know, just two
Speaker 2: weeks ago all of a sudden took the Cowboys to
Speaker 2: their limit.
Speaker 3: I do not want to lay six points with the
Speaker 3: Eagles right now to a team that has a major
Speaker 3: home field advantage.
Speaker 1: And I think three and a half actually this one, so.
Speaker 5: Oh sorry, I'm looking at the wrong Len. Yes, three
Speaker 5: and a half.
Speaker 3: Still do not want to do that, man, Like exactly,
Speaker 3: Drew Lock could throw for three hundred yards and three
Speaker 3: touchdowns against this Eagles secondary.
Speaker 5: And like Joe you said it, I mean like the Eagles.
Speaker 3: One thing that maybe isn't talked about enough is the
Speaker 3: loss of Shane Steichen and what that has done to
Speaker 3: the offense. And right now it seems like they are
Speaker 3: having trouble righting the ship with the passing game. Like
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts has not been very effective through the air,
Speaker 3: And we talked about it on the show last week
Speaker 3: and I said, I didn't think Jalen Hurts would be
Speaker 3: able to go toe to toe with Dak Prescott in
Speaker 3: a shootout, and that was kind of the case in
Speaker 3: week fourteen now against Drew Locke. Yeah, maybe Jalen Hurts
Speaker 3: can win that shootout. But man, I just do not
Speaker 3: want to take the Eagles as a road favorite right
Speaker 3: now going coast to coast, Like, I'm just not feeling
Speaker 3: the love for the Eagles right now.
Speaker 5: They need to get it back together before I'm ready
Speaker 5: to endorse them with my hard earned.
Speaker 2: Money, understandably, So I think that's the truer words I've
Speaker 2: never been spoken. And we talked so much about nam
Speaker 2: leaving and what that happened. You know what the Kansas
Speaker 2: City offenses look like ever since. Same can be said
Speaker 2: of psyching too, and I don't think we emphasize that
Speaker 2: enough because the Eagles kept finding ways to win games
Speaker 2: and squeeze out victories, but there's an underbelly there that
Speaker 2: is concerning, especially in these as you said, these shootout games,
Speaker 2: are these games where they really got to match other teams.
Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens in week fifteen. It is
Speaker 2: a busy week FI fifteen, and therefore you need the
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Speaker 2: and click that little bell and if you d drop
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Speaker 2: free premium upgrade to Betting Pros. The premium version is unbelievable.
Speaker 2: It'll help you get through all of the remaining weeks
Speaker 2: of the NFL season and the playoffs as well. There's
Speaker 2: still a lot of NFL way during left in this
Speaker 2: tank here. That'll do it for us, but the story
Speaker 2: of the game goes on for Sam and Pat.
Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.
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