WEBVTT - Free Picks for EVERY Week 15 NFL Game (Ep. 404) 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:02.400 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:05.640 It's time to place your bets, Joe Pisapia, and it 0:00:05.720 --> 0:00:08.119 is week fifteen in the NFL. It's time to look 0:00:08.160 --> 0:00:11.360 at some early values. We had some fun games on 0:00:11.400 --> 0:00:13.319 the slate. And if you watch last week's show, you 0:00:13.440 --> 0:00:15.640 got Ian early on the Bears money line, on the 0:00:15.640 --> 0:00:18.080 Broncos money line. Because that's what we do here at 0:00:18.120 --> 0:00:21.480 Betting Pros. We go ahead, we look ahead, and we 0:00:21.560 --> 0:00:22.560 find the early value. 0:00:22.560 --> 0:00:23.920 We and lock those bad boys in. 0:00:24.360 --> 0:00:26.360 And of course to help me break down this week's 0:00:26.360 --> 0:00:29.080 slate of games, which is every day this week almost 0:00:29.080 --> 0:00:29.680 you got football. 0:00:29.680 --> 0:00:31.760 It's amazing. We got all kinds of football going. You 0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:33.239 like football, You like football? What do you like? 0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:35.839 We got football over the place for you. Pat Fitzmorris, 0:00:35.960 --> 0:00:38.880 my Patty Cakes and Sam Hoppin, who is always popping 0:00:38.960 --> 0:00:42.360 here on Betting Pros, always knee deep in NFL and NBA. 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:44.760 He's the hardest working man in show business. It feels 0:00:44.800 --> 0:00:47.200 like so, gentlemen, we've got, like I said, full slate 0:00:47.240 --> 0:00:49.199 of games to get to. I know it's fantasy playoffs, 0:00:49.240 --> 0:00:51.440 but for us, every week is playoffs. We're trying to 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:54.400 win money. We're trying to do what needs to be 0:00:54.520 --> 0:00:58.160 done to cross over that threshold of cashing. And before 0:00:58.160 --> 0:01:00.360 we get to the games on the slate to give 0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:03.120 something away because it's that time of year, it's festive, 0:01:03.440 --> 0:01:06.200 so we always promise we're giving away Betting Pros Premium 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:10.319 upgrades for a year, and this week's winner is Curtis Brooks. 0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:12.040 Curtis, you are the big winner. 0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:14.280 So get in touch with us over at Customer Support 0:01:14.319 --> 0:01:18.120 at mailbag at Fantasypros dot com. Again, mailbag at Fantasypros 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:20.399 dot com with your proof of subscription to the Betting 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:23.360 Pros YouTube channel and your current Betting Pros dot com 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:27.520 user name, and we'll get you that upgrade again. Curtis Brooks. Congratulations, 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:28.959 you're the big winner. And if you want to be 0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:31.640 let Curtis drop your comments below, subscribe to the Betting 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:36.319 Pros YouTube channel. We're gonna have coverage all throughout NFL season, 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:40.360 all throughout the playoffs, NBA Season two, every Monday, and 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:43.119 excuse me, every Wednesday and Friday. We've got our eleven 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:45.640 AM show here Fast Break Bets, so we've got all 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:46.560 the content. 0:01:46.200 --> 0:01:47.520 You need for all your sports. 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:50.480 So make sure you are clicking that beltick goes ding, 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:53.200 so you know exactly when the content drops, you're on 0:01:53.240 --> 0:01:55.040 the channel and you might be the next winner, just 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:58.360 like Curtis of that Betting Pros premium subscription. So gentlemen, 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:01.560 let's kick things off your Thursday football. I'd love to 0:02:01.560 --> 0:02:04.120 say it's an exciting one, but it's probably not. Again, 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:06.560 the Los Angeles Chargers are going to face the Las 0:02:06.640 --> 0:02:09.000 Vegas A Raiders. Both teams are five and eight. The 0:02:09.200 --> 0:02:10.840 over under for this game is thirty three and a 0:02:10.880 --> 0:02:13.400 half on the consensus line of Betting Pros. Three is 0:02:13.400 --> 0:02:16.399 the number. If you like the Chargers to win. It's 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:18.720 plus one point thirty all on the money line outright. 0:02:19.320 --> 0:02:21.320 But we probably won't get Herbert in this game was 0:02:21.320 --> 0:02:23.519 a broken finger. I'd imagine we're not going to get him, 0:02:23.600 --> 0:02:26.840 which means we're gonna get Easton Stick potentially playing quarterback, 0:02:27.360 --> 0:02:29.160 which is exactly what I carried to the plate with 0:02:29.200 --> 0:02:31.720 me back in nineteen ninety three. A good old Easton stick. 0:02:31.919 --> 0:02:35.640 Get out there. Nothing like that metal ping FITZI look, 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:39.400 this one is wacky here. I am leaning early on 0:02:39.440 --> 0:02:41.280 the Raiders here on this one. In the minus three, 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:43.639 I know they did not score. I know it was atrocious, 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:46.320 but I'm gonna shake the dust off here and instead 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:48.720 think I'm gonna take my chances against the backup QB. 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:50.160 What are your thoughts, FITZI. 0:02:50.400 --> 0:02:52.520 I agree with you, Joe. I do think there's a 0:02:52.520 --> 0:02:54.519 little bit of value on the Raiders, and it was 0:02:54.600 --> 0:02:57.480 really disappointing to see them just completely lay an egg 0:02:57.560 --> 0:02:59.799 at home against the Vikings and not well. At least 0:02:59.800 --> 0:03:02.680 the offense late and eggs. The defense did its job, 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:07.800 But like, this is a team that has shown a 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:11.240 spree decorps ever since the firing of Josh McDaniels, Like 0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:13.640 they have been a better team. And now we're getting 0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:19.760 this Chargers team that has shown an inability to finish 0:03:19.919 --> 0:03:24.200 again under Brandon Staley, and you know now they've got 0:03:24.200 --> 0:03:26.680 the backup quarterback. So I do think the Raiders are 0:03:26.720 --> 0:03:30.160 the better play. But it's interesting that since these lines 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:32.440 went up on Sunday night, we've seen a little bit 0:03:32.480 --> 0:03:34.320 of money come in on the Chargers because now it 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:37.520 is minus one fifteen to bet the Chargers and minus 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:39.080 one oh five to bet the Raiders, so it's kind 0:03:39.080 --> 0:03:39.960 of gone the opposite way. 0:03:40.000 --> 0:03:42.720 I would have thought, Sam, you're a big Spree de corps. Guy, 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:44.920 I know that about you already, so let's talk about it. 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:47.600 Let's talk about this game here. I'm just gonna go 0:03:47.680 --> 0:03:50.360 with the team that is at home. I'm gonna go 0:03:50.400 --> 0:03:53.080 with the team that's playing against the backup QB, and 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:55.720 I'm gonna go with the team that's taking on a 0:03:55.840 --> 0:03:58.480 Brandon Staley road team here and just kind of take 0:03:58.520 --> 0:04:02.400 my chances with the Raiders. This is gambling, this is wagering, 0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:04.280 and it feels like it. But it feels like Vegas 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:05.360 to me. What does it feel like to you? 0:04:06.160 --> 0:04:09.960 Look from the creators of Bailey Zappy versus Mitch Trubisky, 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:13.720 we present to you East and Stick versus Aidan O'Connell. 0:04:13.960 --> 0:04:17.760 Another riveting Thursday night matchup that I'm sure Al Michaels 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:21.800 will be thrilled to be calling. But I actually kind 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:25.680 of like the Chargers here. Robbie Greer Greer NFL on 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:29.599 Twitter has done some phenomenal research on the performance of 0:04:29.880 --> 0:04:33.960 backup quarterbacks when they come in to replace a starter, 0:04:34.160 --> 0:04:38.040 and when a replacement plays in place of an above 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:43.520 average starter, which I think Herbert is. The backup outperforms 0:04:43.600 --> 0:04:47.760 Vegas expectations and covers fifty four percent of the games 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:51.800 in their start. And I've mentioned the sort of entropy 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:55.760 feeling with games in the past and having a lot 0:04:55.760 --> 0:04:59.359 of unknowns in a game and taking the plus money 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:03.599 in those in those games. So I like the Chargers here. 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:08.360 I mean, it's gross for sure, But I don't know 0:05:08.440 --> 0:05:11.680 what I saw from the Raiders on Sunday that would 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:12.920 make me excited to bet them. 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:15.440 I had nothing exciting. They did not show up once 0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:17.320 on red zone. By the way, that entire game, the 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:18.520 entire game. 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:20.360 Not once. People are like, is that happening? Do something 0:05:20.400 --> 0:05:22.320 happened in that game? Was Aaron delay? Nope? 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:25.080 Nope, it was going What a strange game that was? 0:05:25.200 --> 0:05:25.520 All right? 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:27.919 Now, we've got three Saturday games. First one is the 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:31.440 Minnesota Cincinnati game. Second straight road game here for the 0:05:31.560 --> 0:05:34.520 Minnesota Vikings. Both these teams are seven and six. Jake 0:05:34.560 --> 0:05:38.720 Browning playing good football, winning big games here. Thirty nine 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:40.800 and a half is the number consensus on VP. You've 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:43.200 got a three and a half point number here on 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:46.320 the Cincinnati Bengals and the minus Minnesota plus one sixty 0:05:46.320 --> 0:05:48.960 four for the upset Sam. To me, it feels like 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:51.440 the Minnesota Vikings the Wheels have come off here a 0:05:51.480 --> 0:05:54.360 little bit. The momentum is completely stopped two road games 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:56.159 in a row. I don't love this, and I feel 0:05:56.160 --> 0:05:58.720 like the Bengals feel like they have nothing to lose here. 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:01.480 That makes them supers were as Minnesota, I think, is 0:06:01.480 --> 0:06:03.840 the opposite their team that is playing tens. They had 0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:06.760 to bench Jobs. You don't know about Jefferson. I jumped 0:06:06.760 --> 0:06:08.160 on this one early in the three and a half 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:09.960 from Cincy, But what do you see in this one? 0:06:11.200 --> 0:06:15.360 Yeah, I'm right there with you. The Josh Jobs experience, unfortunately, 0:06:16.160 --> 0:06:17.760 was at a high a couple of weeks ago, is 0:06:17.800 --> 0:06:23.520 now cratering back down to earth. The Vikings defense is legit, 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:25.640 I think. I mean what Brian Flores has done with 0:06:26.440 --> 0:06:28.960 the team that didn't have a lot of playmakers on 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:32.560 defense to start the season. Are are playing great. They 0:06:32.560 --> 0:06:36.400 have allowed a success rate over forty percent just once 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:40.159 since Week eight. That that was against Denver. The thing 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:44.640 that I'm struggling with here is Jake Browning has an 0:06:44.640 --> 0:06:48.200 eighty four point seven PFF grade against the Blitz this year, 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:51.599 which is the third best. We know the Vikings love 0:06:52.080 --> 0:06:54.600 to blitz, and I think it's a little bit different 0:06:54.640 --> 0:06:57.600 than some of the other teams that Browning has faced 0:06:57.760 --> 0:07:00.400 so far. If I had to lean one way, it 0:07:00.440 --> 0:07:05.320 would be Cincinnati because I think their offense is the 0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:09.960 probably possibly the best unit out here. But I can't 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:12.000 click either side of this right now. 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:14.600 I think the under is intriguing for this game too. 0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:18.160 Thirty nine and a half is a good size number. However, 0:07:19.600 --> 0:07:21.560 with the way that you know Browning's been able to 0:07:21.560 --> 0:07:23.160 make plays with his legs too and extend some of 0:07:23.160 --> 0:07:26.640 these plays of times here pat and look he's getting 0:07:26.720 --> 0:07:29.120 used out of these other weapons he's got. It feels 0:07:29.160 --> 0:07:30.560 like if this was on the road, I might feel 0:07:30.600 --> 0:07:32.800 very differently about it. I might be even more concerned. 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:36.360 But in Cincinnati a little bit shorter week, I feel 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:39.200 like the Cincinnati Bengals are the more dangerous squad right now. 0:07:39.200 --> 0:07:39.800 But what do you think. 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:42.320 I agree with you, Joe, and I do like the 0:07:42.400 --> 0:07:45.920 under two because the Vikings are down on firepower. I mean, 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:48.400 like the Josh Dobbs thing just hasn't worked, so it's 0:07:48.400 --> 0:07:53.320 gonna be Nick Mullins justin Jefferson very questionable for this game, 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:56.200 and no Alexander Madison, so they're down to Ty Chandler 0:07:56.280 --> 0:07:58.800 running back, and then you've got Jake brown And going 0:07:58.880 --> 0:08:02.560 up against the Brian Flora's defense, And yes, he has 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:06.040 grated out well against the blitz but let's face it, 0:08:06.080 --> 0:08:09.320 they caught their opponents in a couple of blitzes this 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:12.640 past week with little dumped offs to Chase brown that 0:08:12.720 --> 0:08:15.200 one that went for a really long touchdown and another 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:17.640 that went for like a twenty five yard game or so. 0:08:17.640 --> 0:08:21.040 So you know, before we throw too many buquets at 0:08:21.080 --> 0:08:24.680 the feet of Jake Browning, like, I'm not totally convinced 0:08:24.680 --> 0:08:26.360 that he is just going to move the ball at 0:08:26.400 --> 0:08:29.920 will against a defense that has really overachieved this year 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:32.839 and has one of the best defensive master minds in 0:08:32.880 --> 0:08:35.880 the game dialing up the play. So I like the 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:37.960 under here more than I like either side. But if 0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:40.680 I was going to better side, I would bet the Bengals. 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:45.199 I think. I think. Yeah, a lot of Jake Browning's 0:08:45.559 --> 0:08:49.360 was passing production has come after the catch. I mean, 0:08:49.400 --> 0:08:52.880 you've seen the Chase brown screen that Pat mentioned some 0:08:52.960 --> 0:08:55.600 of the after catch stuff that Jamar Chase has had. 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:58.120 So I know we don't typically talk player pops here, 0:08:58.120 --> 0:09:01.240 but depending on the line for Shake Browning's passing yards. 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:03.240 I think the under could be in play. 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:07.000 All right, Let's move to the midday game on that 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:10.320 Saturday slate of NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers somehow seven and six, 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:13.160 somehow on the inside of the playoff picture. Don't ask 0:09:13.200 --> 0:09:14.920 me how after the last two weeks thing on these 0:09:14.920 --> 0:09:18.800 seven and six Indianapolis Colts. This one in Indy, Indy 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:20.960 is two and a half point favorites at home. Forty 0:09:20.960 --> 0:09:23.439 two is the consensus number. You're getting plus one fifteen 0:09:23.520 --> 0:09:27.199 for the Pittsburgh upset on the money line fits. 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:28.280 It's two weeks in a row. 0:09:28.400 --> 0:09:31.600 We're watching the Pittsburgh Steelers here just lose to bad teams. Now, 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:34.000 can they get it together and go on the road 0:09:34.000 --> 0:09:35.680 and win in Indy? It seems like a tall order 0:09:35.720 --> 0:09:35.920 to me. 0:09:36.559 --> 0:09:38.080 Oh goodness, I don't know, Joe. 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:41.080 I've got both teams coming off bad losses. I mean, 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:44.000 the Steelers drop a home game to the Patriots forgettness sakes, 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:46.360 and the Colts played probably their worst game of the 0:09:46.360 --> 0:09:50.320 season against the Bengals in losing by twenty two backup quarterback. 0:09:50.400 --> 0:09:51.640 So I don't know. 0:09:51.679 --> 0:09:54.200 I've just been burned by both of these teams before Honestly, 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:57.360 there are also six college bowl games on Saturday. I 0:09:57.440 --> 0:09:59.320 might be flicking around to some of the bowl games 0:09:59.400 --> 0:09:59.880 during this. 0:09:59.800 --> 0:10:01.199 One, understandable. 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:04.079 And don't forget we've got bowl coverage here with Thor 0:10:04.200 --> 0:10:06.920 and Scott Bogman on our channel as well. We're always 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:08.480 prepared for all the college football stuff. 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:08.960 Sam. 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:11.120 This one feels a little gross. But if you're talking 0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:15.400 about trends, talking about directions of teams, right, Pittsburgh certainly 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:17.440 feels like a team that's going in a negative direction 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:19.280 like that just can't get out of their own way. 0:10:19.320 --> 0:10:21.079 They can't win games at home. Now, is this is 0:10:21.080 --> 0:10:23.559 a unique opportunity where you say, to heck with a 0:10:23.640 --> 0:10:25.800 trend and you go ahead and bet agains that makes 0:10:25.800 --> 0:10:28.160 some money here, or do you stick with the trend 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:28.839 and go with Indy. 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:33.599 I'm gonna stick with Indy here. We get Mitch Trubisky 0:10:33.880 --> 0:10:42.319 again on Saturday. In relief of blanking on this, both TJ. 0:10:42.440 --> 0:10:47.040 Watt and Alex Highsmith for the Steelers defense are in 0:10:47.240 --> 0:10:49.560 concussion protocol. Now they get the extra rest, so it 0:10:49.640 --> 0:10:52.360 might be a little easier for them to come back 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:56.880 from that, but Indianapolis continues to dictate the pass and 0:10:57.000 --> 0:10:59.560 pass quite a bit over expectation in the last couple 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:02.440 of days. And this is a Steelers defense that just 0:11:02.480 --> 0:11:07.240 got roasted by Bailey Zappi with three wide receivers active 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:10.320 for them. So I like the Colts here. I still 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:13.839 think again, I've mentioned it every single week, but Shane 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:18.640 stike In, from a procedural standpoint outweighs Mike Tomlin at 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:21.679 this point. So I like getting Indy e at minus 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:22.640 two and a half right now. 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:24.480 You can get India on the money line at minus 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:25.920 one thirty five. So if you want to put that 0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:29.120 together with let's say Michael Pittman, I don't know, Amy 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:32.520 over on receptions something another, gimme like that, it's a 0:11:32.520 --> 0:11:34.360 good way to push this right into the positive. I 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:38.160 think that would be a very smart little duo. Bet 0:11:38.600 --> 0:11:41.120 Denver is the nightcap against the Detroit Lions. This one's 0:11:41.160 --> 0:11:43.839 in Detroit. Detroit is four point favorites for this game. 0:11:44.040 --> 0:11:46.480 Forty six and a half is the number plus one 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:50.760 seventy five for the Denver Broncos money line. Now, I 0:11:50.840 --> 0:11:54.040 keep pushing the Denver Broncos in my videos, keep pushing 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:56.360 for them to make the playoffs. I think you're still 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:59.120 getting plus one forty most spots for that. I think 0:11:59.320 --> 0:12:04.040 Denver smells an opportunity here and Detroit is reeling. I 0:12:04.080 --> 0:12:06.320 know they're going back home. I know we should be 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:08.520 looking at Detroit really maybe as the get right game, 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:10.880 but Sam, I can't get there. I like the Denver 0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:14.480 Broncos defense more. I'm on Denver on the money line 0:12:14.520 --> 0:12:15.360 two weeks in a row. 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:16.120 Here, where are you? 0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:21.480 I think Denver is the side right now, though, I 0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:25.280 just don't want to bet it quite frankly, because I 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:29.080 still don't believe in this Broncos defense. Despite the fact 0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:31.680 that they haven't allowed more than twenty two points in 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:36.480 h straight games, they are still thirtieth in defensive DVOA. 0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:41.680 They're twenty fourth in defensive rating according to Impredictable, which 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:47.040 uses future betting lines for that. And so I that 0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:50.000 said that, the Lions offense just looks out of funk. 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:53.319 I don't really know what's going on. Ben Johnson had 0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:55.679 some interesting formations. You know, he's lining up. I'm on 0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:59.160 Ross Saint Brown out of the backfield, had a handoff 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:02.640 to Sam look out of the fullback position there. But 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:07.400 I could see this game going just a number of 0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:10.000 different ways. I could see the Lions getting back into 0:13:10.040 --> 0:13:13.760 things and blowing the brakes off of Denver. But I 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:16.560 just I don't really believe in the Broncos offense enough 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:19.640 to necessarily keep them in contention. 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:22.079 Pat, how do you see this one, this nightcap game, 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:25.880 because this one certainly I think has everybody's attention. Also 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:28.079 out of conference games too, you know, wacky things can 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:28.800 happen sometimes. 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:31.800 When I looked at the lines on Sunday Night Show, 0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:34.280 there were only two games I was motivated to bet 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:37.360 early and one was getting the better team in this 0:13:37.520 --> 0:13:41.920 matchup and four points, So I was happy to take 0:13:42.080 --> 0:13:44.760 the Broncos in this one. And the line's already gone 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:46.040 down to three and a half, so I'm glad I 0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:50.000 got it at four. Detroit is just reeling and they're 0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:52.040 having a hard time getting the train back on the 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:56.320 tracks right now. Not only has their defense just gone 0:13:56.320 --> 0:13:58.640 to hell, I mean they are getting firebombed through the 0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:02.200 air and they're not anywhere close to the impregnable run 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:05.320 defense they had early in the season. But Jared Goff 0:14:05.360 --> 0:14:09.200 has really struggled too. They do have the run game, 0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:12.079 and they are going against a Denver run defense that 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:14.880 look Denver's really picked it up against the pass, but 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:17.920 against the run they're still pretty bad. So I could 0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:21.600 see a scenario where the Lions run all over the Broncos, 0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:23.960 which is why Joe, I kind of want to take 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:26.760 this game and take the points rather than bet the 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:28.760 money line. Like, if I'm getting a field goal or 0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:32.000 more with the Broncos, I think that's amazing value and 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:34.640 I want to take advantage. I don't hate your money 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:36.920 line bet, and I might even be motivated to throw 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:38.840 a little something on that later in the week, but 0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:41.400 for now, give me the points and give me the 0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:43.920 hotter and better team right now with the Broncos. 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:46.720 Hey, oh plus months every five is just enough where 0:14:46.760 --> 0:14:49.720 I'm very intrigued there. But you're right, the safer bet 0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:52.480 is definitely the four. On the Denver side, Tampa finds 0:14:52.520 --> 0:14:54.920 himself at the top of the NFC South, so once 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:57.200 again nobody wants to win that division. Just like last year, 0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:59.600 they are six and seven. The Green Bay Packers are hot. 0:14:59.600 --> 0:15:01.320 We'll see they do a Monday night. They are six 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:03.120 and six. Right now, they are three and a half 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:05.360 point favorites at home. This feels right. Forty two and 0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:07.800 a half is the number. Plus one fifty for Tampa. 0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:10.640 On the money line, Pat Love has played really well 0:15:10.640 --> 0:15:13.680 the last three weeks, eight touchdowns, no picks. We'll see 0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:17.320 again what Monday brings. But the one thing you can 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:19.680 do certainly is throw on this team. So is it 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:22.880 safe here to maybe take the Packers and take maybe 0:15:22.880 --> 0:15:25.360 some Jordan Love passing overs and kind of play this 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:26.040 one safe? 0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:31.880 I think the Packers are safe, Joe. About the passing overs, 0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:34.360 I'm gonna stick a pin in that for now, and 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:37.640 I'll tell you why. So you know I'm not a 0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:40.920 total Packers homer, Joe, but I do love the Packers 0:15:40.920 --> 0:15:43.680 here and part of the reason for that. I mean, 0:15:43.800 --> 0:15:46.960 home field in the NFL is generally regarded as being 0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:51.160 worth two points in most places these days. For a 0:15:51.200 --> 0:15:54.080 game with a team from Florida traveling up to Green Bay, 0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:57.560 Wisconsin in mid December, I would say that home field 0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:00.480 advantage is probably closer to four points. I mean, we 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:02.840 know what the field is like up there. A lot 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:05.680 of teams have trouble getting the right cleats, which is 0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:09.120 something the Packers don't really have issues with. I mean, 0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:13.120 Sam Hoppin is from Green Bay, Wisconsin. Sam tell Joe 0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:14.600 about December in green. 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:18.080 Yeah, the pride of Green Bay, Sam Hoppin, let's talk 0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:20.280 about this one. What do you think you're confident that 0:16:20.320 --> 0:16:21.920 your boys can handle their business here? 0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:26.560 I am. And to answer Pat's question, it's miserable in 0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:32.120 Green Bay in December. I cannot stress how much you 0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:34.680 should not really be going to Green Bay in December, 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:37.720 actually December through like mid March. But in any case, Yeah, 0:16:37.720 --> 0:16:40.760 I mean, I think Love is just going to slice 0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:44.000 this defensive part. Desmond Ritter just through for nearly three 0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:47.080 hundred and fifty yards against them. I think Green Bay 0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:50.320 will get both Christian Watson and Aaron Jones back in 0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:53.640 this game, which should help Tampa. Bay also lost both 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:57.760 Carlton Davis and Ryan Neil in the game against Atlantis, 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:01.800 that their status is sable for a secondary that was 0:17:02.200 --> 0:17:06.360 already questionable. So I love Green Bay and the Packers. 0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:08.840 Yeah, and Joe, by the way, the reason I'm not 0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:11.720 that keen on the Jordan Love over so I just like, 0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:15.320 if it's ten below wind Shell, I'm not excited about 0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:16.200 passing over. 0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:19.200 So fair enough, I'm just excited about that secondary coming 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:20.879 to town at the end of the day. So, and 0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:24.200 if Watson's healthy two that's another one. I like, all right, Atlanta, 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:26.120 they are six and seven two fighting for that South. 0:17:26.119 --> 0:17:28.600 They're gonna go to Carolina in a game they should win. 0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:31.639 But Desmon Ritter on the road has not been great. 0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:32.680 Carolina's at home. 0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:34.600 They are three point underdogs at home, and they've earned 0:17:34.600 --> 0:17:36.840 at least that thirty five is the number for this game, 0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:40.199 minus one sixty eight on the Atlanta side, plus one 0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:44.120 forty on Carolina. This is a tricky one here, Sam, 0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:46.280 because this feels kind of trappy in a lot of ways. 0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:49.400 Your trust level of Atlanta on the road has certainly 0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:52.320 been I would say all of us cautious to say 0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:54.560 the least. So do you have any early leans on 0:17:54.600 --> 0:17:56.480 this one or you're just gonna walk away? 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:00.919 I hate that. My early lean is the Falcons. But 0:18:01.400 --> 0:18:03.560 the Saints, who we're going to talk about here in 0:18:03.560 --> 0:18:08.199 a minute, played terribly against the against the Panthers and 0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:12.560 still blew them out. I mean, like this, the Panthers 0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:15.960 are just a complete mess right now. The Atlanta defense 0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:20.640 has shut down the inferior imponents that they've played lately 0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:26.080 in the Saints, the Bucks, and the Jets. So again, 0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:29.560 it is little trust, as I have in Desmond Ritter 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:33.400 and Arthur Smith. I think the Falcons should have no 0:18:33.480 --> 0:18:35.200 issue taking care of business. 0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:35.760 Fitz. 0:18:35.800 --> 0:18:37.720 I'm surprised you're not getting a bigger number here, like 0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:39.800 a plus one to eighty or even plus two hundred 0:18:39.800 --> 0:18:42.159 for the Panthers to win this football game, which is 0:18:42.320 --> 0:18:45.199 what gives me hesitation here a little bit too, Like 0:18:45.240 --> 0:18:47.800 what do they know here that's going on that I 0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:49.840 don't have a beat on. This is just a weird 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:53.560 one to me. It feels like a bad situation for Atlanta. 0:18:53.640 --> 0:18:56.520 But to Sam's point, Carolina just can't get out of 0:18:56.520 --> 0:18:58.800 their own way, and from a leadership standpoint, they don't 0:18:58.800 --> 0:18:59.159 seem to. 0:18:59.160 --> 0:19:00.880 Have any no. 0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:04.520 But the Falcons often can't get out of their own 0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:09.199 way either, So I think that's why maybe there's hesitation to, 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:12.760 you know, put bet money on the Falcons and drive 0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:14.800 up this line, and why I think we might see 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:17.600