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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros.

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Speaker 2: It's time to place your bets, Joe Pisapia, and it

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Speaker 2: is week fifteen in the NFL. It's time to look

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Speaker 2: at some early values. We had some fun games on

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Speaker 2: the slate. And if you watch last week's show, you

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Speaker 2: got Ian early on the Bears money line, on the

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Speaker 2: Broncos money line. Because that's what we do here at

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Speaker 2: Betting Pros. We go ahead, we look ahead, and we

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Speaker 2: find the early value.

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Speaker 1: We and lock those bad boys in.

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Speaker 2: And of course to help me break down this week's

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Speaker 2: slate of games, which is every day this week almost

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Speaker 2: you got football.

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Speaker 1: It's amazing. We got all kinds of football going. You

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Speaker 1: like football, You like football? What do you like?

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Speaker 2: We got football over the place for you. Pat Fitzmorris,

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Speaker 2: my Patty Cakes and Sam Hoppin, who is always popping

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Speaker 2: here on Betting Pros, always knee deep in NFL and NBA.

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Speaker 2: He's the hardest working man in show business. It feels

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Speaker 2: like so, gentlemen, we've got, like I said, full slate

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Speaker 2: of games to get to. I know it's fantasy playoffs,

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Speaker 2: but for us, every week is playoffs. We're trying to

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Speaker 2: win money. We're trying to do what needs to be

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Speaker 2: done to cross over that threshold of cashing. And before

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Speaker 2: we get to the games on the slate to give

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Speaker 2: something away because it's that time of year, it's festive,

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Speaker 2: so we always promise we're giving away Betting Pros Premium

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Speaker 2: upgrades for a year, and this week's winner is Curtis Brooks.

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Speaker 1: Curtis, you are the big winner.

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Speaker 2: So get in touch with us over at Customer Support

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Speaker 2: at mailbag at Fantasypros dot com. Again, mailbag at Fantasypros

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Speaker 2: dot com with your proof of subscription to the Betting

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Speaker 2: Pros YouTube channel and your current Betting Pros dot com

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Speaker 2: user name, and we'll get you that upgrade again. Curtis Brooks. Congratulations,

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Speaker 2: you're the big winner. And if you want to be

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Speaker 2: let Curtis drop your comments below, subscribe to the Betting

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Speaker 2: Pros YouTube channel. We're gonna have coverage all throughout NFL season,

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Speaker 2: all throughout the playoffs, NBA Season two, every Monday, and

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Speaker 2: excuse me, every Wednesday and Friday. We've got our eleven

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Speaker 2: AM show here Fast Break Bets, so we've got all

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Speaker 2: the content.

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Speaker 1: You need for all your sports.

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Speaker 2: So make sure you are clicking that beltick goes ding,

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Speaker 2: so you know exactly when the content drops, you're on

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Speaker 2: the channel and you might be the next winner, just

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Speaker 2: like Curtis of that Betting Pros premium subscription. So gentlemen,

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Speaker 2: let's kick things off your Thursday football. I'd love to

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Speaker 2: say it's an exciting one, but it's probably not. Again,

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Speaker 2: the Los Angeles Chargers are going to face the Las

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Speaker 2: Vegas A Raiders. Both teams are five and eight. The

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Speaker 2: over under for this game is thirty three and a

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Speaker 2: half on the consensus line of Betting Pros. Three is

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Speaker 2: the number. If you like the Chargers to win. It's

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Speaker 2: plus one point thirty all on the money line outright.

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Speaker 2: But we probably won't get Herbert in this game was

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Speaker 2: a broken finger. I'd imagine we're not going to get him,

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Speaker 2: which means we're gonna get Easton Stick potentially playing quarterback,

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Speaker 2: which is exactly what I carried to the plate with

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Speaker 2: me back in nineteen ninety three. A good old Easton stick.

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Speaker 2: Get out there. Nothing like that metal ping FITZI look,

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Speaker 2: this one is wacky here. I am leaning early on

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Speaker 2: the Raiders here on this one. In the minus three,

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Speaker 2: I know they did not score. I know it was atrocious,

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Speaker 2: but I'm gonna shake the dust off here and instead

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Speaker 2: think I'm gonna take my chances against the backup QB.

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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts, FITZI.

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Speaker 3: I agree with you, Joe. I do think there's a

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Speaker 3: little bit of value on the Raiders, and it was

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Speaker 3: really disappointing to see them just completely lay an egg

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Speaker 3: at home against the Vikings and not well. At least

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Speaker 3: the offense late and eggs. The defense did its job,

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Speaker 3: But like, this is a team that has shown a

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Speaker 3: spree decorps ever since the firing of Josh McDaniels, Like

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Speaker 3: they have been a better team. And now we're getting

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Speaker 3: this Chargers team that has shown an inability to finish

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Speaker 3: again under Brandon Staley, and you know now they've got

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Speaker 3: the backup quarterback. So I do think the Raiders are

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Speaker 3: the better play. But it's interesting that since these lines

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Speaker 3: went up on Sunday night, we've seen a little bit

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Speaker 3: of money come in on the Chargers because now it

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Speaker 3: is minus one fifteen to bet the Chargers and minus

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Speaker 3: one oh five to bet the Raiders, so it's kind

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Speaker 3: of gone the opposite way.

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Speaker 2: I would have thought, Sam, you're a big Spree de corps. Guy,

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Speaker 2: I know that about you already, so let's talk about it.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about this game here. I'm just gonna go

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Speaker 2: with the team that is at home. I'm gonna go

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Speaker 2: with the team that's playing against the backup QB, and

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the team that's taking on a

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Speaker 2: Brandon Staley road team here and just kind of take

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Speaker 2: my chances with the Raiders. This is gambling, this is wagering,

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Speaker 2: and it feels like it. But it feels like Vegas

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Speaker 2: to me. What does it feel like to you?

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Speaker 4: Look from the creators of Bailey Zappy versus Mitch Trubisky,

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Speaker 4: we present to you East and Stick versus Aidan O'Connell.

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Speaker 4: Another riveting Thursday night matchup that I'm sure Al Michaels

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Speaker 4: will be thrilled to be calling. But I actually kind

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Speaker 4: of like the Chargers here. Robbie Greer Greer NFL on

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Speaker 4: Twitter has done some phenomenal research on the performance of

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Speaker 4: backup quarterbacks when they come in to replace a starter,

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Speaker 4: and when a replacement plays in place of an above

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Speaker 4: average starter, which I think Herbert is. The backup outperforms

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Speaker 4: Vegas expectations and covers fifty four percent of the games

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Speaker 4: in their start. And I've mentioned the sort of entropy

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Speaker 4: feeling with games in the past and having a lot

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Speaker 4: of unknowns in a game and taking the plus money

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Speaker 4: in those in those games. So I like the Chargers here.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it's gross for sure, But I don't know

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Speaker 4: what I saw from the Raiders on Sunday that would

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Speaker 4: make me excited to bet them.

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Speaker 2: I had nothing exciting. They did not show up once

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Speaker 2: on red zone. By the way, that entire game, the

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Speaker 2: entire game.

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Speaker 1: Not once. People are like, is that happening? Do something

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Speaker 1: happened in that game? Was Aaron delay? Nope?

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Speaker 2: Nope, it was going What a strange game that was?

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Speaker 1: All right?

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Speaker 2: Now, we've got three Saturday games. First one is the

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Speaker 2: Minnesota Cincinnati game. Second straight road game here for the

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Speaker 2: Minnesota Vikings. Both these teams are seven and six. Jake

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Speaker 2: Browning playing good football, winning big games here. Thirty nine

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Speaker 2: and a half is the number consensus on VP. You've

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Speaker 2: got a three and a half point number here on

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Speaker 2: the Cincinnati Bengals and the minus Minnesota plus one sixty

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Speaker 2: four for the upset Sam. To me, it feels like

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Speaker 2: the Minnesota Vikings the Wheels have come off here a

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Speaker 2: little bit. The momentum is completely stopped two road games

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Speaker 2: in a row. I don't love this, and I feel

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Speaker 2: like the Bengals feel like they have nothing to lose here.

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Speaker 2: That makes them supers were as Minnesota, I think, is

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Speaker 2: the opposite their team that is playing tens. They had

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Speaker 2: to bench Jobs. You don't know about Jefferson. I jumped

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Speaker 2: on this one early in the three and a half

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Speaker 2: from Cincy, But what do you see in this one?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm right there with you. The Josh Jobs experience, unfortunately,

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Speaker 4: was at a high a couple of weeks ago, is

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Speaker 4: now cratering back down to earth. The Vikings defense is legit,

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Speaker 4: I think. I mean what Brian Flores has done with

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Speaker 4: the team that didn't have a lot of playmakers on

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Speaker 4: defense to start the season. Are are playing great. They

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Speaker 4: have allowed a success rate over forty percent just once

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Speaker 4: since Week eight. That that was against Denver. The thing

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Speaker 4: that I'm struggling with here is Jake Browning has an

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Speaker 4: eighty four point seven PFF grade against the Blitz this year,

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Speaker 4: which is the third best. We know the Vikings love

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Speaker 4: to blitz, and I think it's a little bit different

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Speaker 4: than some of the other teams that Browning has faced

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Speaker 4: so far. If I had to lean one way, it

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Speaker 4: would be Cincinnati because I think their offense is the

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Speaker 4: probably possibly the best unit out here. But I can't

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Speaker 4: click either side of this right now.

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Speaker 2: I think the under is intriguing for this game too.

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Speaker 2: Thirty nine and a half is a good size number. However,

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Speaker 2: with the way that you know Browning's been able to

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Speaker 2: make plays with his legs too and extend some of

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Speaker 2: these plays of times here pat and look he's getting

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Speaker 2: used out of these other weapons he's got. It feels

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Speaker 2: like if this was on the road, I might feel

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Speaker 2: very differently about it. I might be even more concerned.

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Speaker 2: But in Cincinnati a little bit shorter week, I feel

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Speaker 2: like the Cincinnati Bengals are the more dangerous squad right now.

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Speaker 1: But what do you think.

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Speaker 3: I agree with you, Joe, and I do like the

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Speaker 3: under two because the Vikings are down on firepower. I mean,

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Speaker 3: like the Josh Dobbs thing just hasn't worked, so it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be Nick Mullins justin Jefferson very questionable for this game,

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Speaker 3: and no Alexander Madison, so they're down to Ty Chandler

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Speaker 3: running back, and then you've got Jake brown And going

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Speaker 3: up against the Brian Flora's defense, And yes, he has

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Speaker 3: grated out well against the blitz but let's face it,

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Speaker 3: they caught their opponents in a couple of blitzes this

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Speaker 3: past week with little dumped offs to Chase brown that

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Speaker 3: one that went for a really long touchdown and another

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Speaker 3: that went for like a twenty five yard game or so.

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Speaker 3: So you know, before we throw too many buquets at

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Speaker 3: the feet of Jake Browning, like, I'm not totally convinced

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Speaker 3: that he is just going to move the ball at

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Speaker 3: will against a defense that has really overachieved this year

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Speaker 3: and has one of the best defensive master minds in

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Speaker 3: the game dialing up the play. So I like the

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Speaker 3: under here more than I like either side. But if

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Speaker 3: I was going to better side, I would bet the Bengals.

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Speaker 4: I think. I think. Yeah, a lot of Jake Browning's

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Speaker 4: was passing production has come after the catch. I mean,

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Speaker 4: you've seen the Chase brown screen that Pat mentioned some

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Speaker 4: of the after catch stuff that Jamar Chase has had.

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Speaker 4: So I know we don't typically talk player pops here,

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Speaker 4: but depending on the line for Shake Browning's passing yards.

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Speaker 4: I think the under could be in play.

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Speaker 2: All right, Let's move to the midday game on that

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Speaker 2: Saturday slate of NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers somehow seven and six,

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Speaker 2: somehow on the inside of the playoff picture. Don't ask

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Speaker 2: me how after the last two weeks thing on these

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Speaker 2: seven and six Indianapolis Colts. This one in Indy, Indy

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Speaker 2: is two and a half point favorites at home. Forty

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Speaker 2: two is the consensus number. You're getting plus one fifteen

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Speaker 2: for the Pittsburgh upset on the money line fits.

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Speaker 1: It's two weeks in a row.

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Speaker 2: We're watching the Pittsburgh Steelers here just lose to bad teams. Now,

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Speaker 2: can they get it together and go on the road

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Speaker 2: and win in Indy? It seems like a tall order

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Speaker 2: to me.

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Speaker 5: Oh goodness, I don't know, Joe.

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Speaker 3: I've got both teams coming off bad losses. I mean,

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Speaker 3: the Steelers drop a home game to the Patriots forgettness sakes,

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Speaker 3: and the Colts played probably their worst game of the

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Speaker 3: season against the Bengals in losing by twenty two backup quarterback.

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Speaker 5: So I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I've just been burned by both of these teams before Honestly,

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Speaker 3: there are also six college bowl games on Saturday. I

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Speaker 3: might be flicking around to some of the bowl games

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Speaker 3: during this.

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Speaker 1: One, understandable.

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Speaker 2: And don't forget we've got bowl coverage here with Thor

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Speaker 2: and Scott Bogman on our channel as well. We're always

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Speaker 2: prepared for all the college football stuff.

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Speaker 1: Sam.

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Speaker 2: This one feels a little gross. But if you're talking

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Speaker 2: about trends, talking about directions of teams, right, Pittsburgh certainly

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Speaker 2: feels like a team that's going in a negative direction

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Speaker 2: like that just can't get out of their own way.

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Speaker 2: They can't win games at home. Now, is this is

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Speaker 2: a unique opportunity where you say, to heck with a

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Speaker 2: trend and you go ahead and bet agains that makes

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Speaker 2: some money here, or do you stick with the trend

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Speaker 2: and go with Indy.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna stick with Indy here. We get Mitch Trubisky

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Speaker 4: again on Saturday. In relief of blanking on this, both TJ.

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Speaker 4: Watt and Alex Highsmith for the Steelers defense are in

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Speaker 4: concussion protocol. Now they get the extra rest, so it

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Speaker 4: might be a little easier for them to come back

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Speaker 4: from that, but Indianapolis continues to dictate the pass and

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Speaker 4: pass quite a bit over expectation in the last couple

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Speaker 4: of days. And this is a Steelers defense that just

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Speaker 4: got roasted by Bailey Zappi with three wide receivers active

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Speaker 4: for them. So I like the Colts here. I still

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Speaker 4: think again, I've mentioned it every single week, but Shane

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Speaker 4: stike In, from a procedural standpoint outweighs Mike Tomlin at

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Speaker 4: this point. So I like getting Indy e at minus

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Speaker 4: two and a half right now.

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Speaker 2: You can get India on the money line at minus

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Speaker 2: one thirty five. So if you want to put that

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Speaker 2: together with let's say Michael Pittman, I don't know, Amy

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Speaker 2: over on receptions something another, gimme like that, it's a

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Speaker 2: good way to push this right into the positive. I

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Speaker 2: think that would be a very smart little duo. Bet

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Speaker 2: Denver is the nightcap against the Detroit Lions. This one's

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Speaker 2: in Detroit. Detroit is four point favorites for this game.

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Speaker 2: Forty six and a half is the number plus one

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Speaker 2: seventy five for the Denver Broncos money line. Now, I

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Speaker 2: keep pushing the Denver Broncos in my videos, keep pushing

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Speaker 2: for them to make the playoffs. I think you're still

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Speaker 2: getting plus one forty most spots for that. I think

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Speaker 2: Denver smells an opportunity here and Detroit is reeling. I

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Speaker 2: know they're going back home. I know we should be

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Speaker 2: looking at Detroit really maybe as the get right game,

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Speaker 2: but Sam, I can't get there. I like the Denver

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Speaker 2: Broncos defense more. I'm on Denver on the money line

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Speaker 2: two weeks in a row.

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Speaker 1: Here, where are you?

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Speaker 4: I think Denver is the side right now, though, I

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Speaker 4: just don't want to bet it quite frankly, because I

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Speaker 4: still don't believe in this Broncos defense. Despite the fact

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Speaker 4: that they haven't allowed more than twenty two points in

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Speaker 4: h straight games, they are still thirtieth in defensive DVOA.

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Speaker 4: They're twenty fourth in defensive rating according to Impredictable, which

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Speaker 4: uses future betting lines for that. And so I that

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Speaker 4: said that, the Lions offense just looks out of funk.

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Speaker 4: I don't really know what's going on. Ben Johnson had

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Speaker 4: some interesting formations. You know, he's lining up. I'm on

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Speaker 4: Ross Saint Brown out of the backfield, had a handoff

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Speaker 4: to Sam look out of the fullback position there. But

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Speaker 4: I could see this game going just a number of

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Speaker 4: different ways. I could see the Lions getting back into

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Speaker 4: things and blowing the brakes off of Denver. But I

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Speaker 4: just I don't really believe in the Broncos offense enough

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Speaker 4: to necessarily keep them in contention.

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Speaker 2: Pat, how do you see this one, this nightcap game,

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Speaker 2: because this one certainly I think has everybody's attention. Also

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Speaker 2: out of conference games too, you know, wacky things can

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Speaker 2: happen sometimes.

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Speaker 3: When I looked at the lines on Sunday Night Show,

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Speaker 3: there were only two games I was motivated to bet

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Speaker 3: early and one was getting the better team in this

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Speaker 3: matchup and four points, So I was happy to take

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Speaker 3: the Broncos in this one. And the line's already gone

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Speaker 3: down to three and a half, so I'm glad I

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Speaker 3: got it at four. Detroit is just reeling and they're

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Speaker 3: having a hard time getting the train back on the

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Speaker 3: tracks right now. Not only has their defense just gone

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Speaker 3: to hell, I mean they are getting firebombed through the

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Speaker 3: air and they're not anywhere close to the impregnable run

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Speaker 3: defense they had early in the season. But Jared Goff

294
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Speaker 3: has really struggled too. They do have the run game,

295
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Speaker 3: and they are going against a Denver run defense that

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Speaker 3: look Denver's really picked it up against the pass, but

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Speaker 3: against the run they're still pretty bad. So I could

298
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Speaker 3: see a scenario where the Lions run all over the Broncos,

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Speaker 3: which is why Joe, I kind of want to take

300
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Speaker 3: this game and take the points rather than bet the

301
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Speaker 3: money line. Like, if I'm getting a field goal or

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Speaker 3: more with the Broncos, I think that's amazing value and

303
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Speaker 3: I want to take advantage. I don't hate your money

304
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Speaker 3: line bet, and I might even be motivated to throw

305
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Speaker 3: a little something on that later in the week, but

306
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Speaker 3: for now, give me the points and give me the

307
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Speaker 3: hotter and better team right now with the Broncos.

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Speaker 2: Hey, oh plus months every five is just enough where

309
00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:49,720
Speaker 2: I'm very intrigued there. But you're right, the safer bet

310
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Speaker 2: is definitely the four. On the Denver side, Tampa finds

311
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Speaker 2: himself at the top of the NFC South, so once

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Speaker 2: again nobody wants to win that division. Just like last year,

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Speaker 2: they are six and seven. The Green Bay Packers are hot.

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Speaker 2: We'll see they do a Monday night. They are six

315
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Speaker 2: and six. Right now, they are three and a half

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Speaker 2: point favorites at home. This feels right. Forty two and

317
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Speaker 2: a half is the number. Plus one fifty for Tampa.

318
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Speaker 2: On the money line, Pat Love has played really well

319
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Speaker 2: the last three weeks, eight touchdowns, no picks. We'll see

320
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Speaker 2: again what Monday brings. But the one thing you can

321
00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:19,680
Speaker 2: do certainly is throw on this team. So is it

322
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Speaker 2: safe here to maybe take the Packers and take maybe

323
00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:25,360
Speaker 2: some Jordan Love passing overs and kind of play this

324
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Speaker 2: one safe?

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Speaker 3: I think the Packers are safe, Joe. About the passing overs,

326
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Speaker 3: I'm gonna stick a pin in that for now, and

327
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Speaker 3: I'll tell you why. So you know I'm not a

328
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Speaker 3: total Packers homer, Joe, but I do love the Packers

329
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Speaker 3: here and part of the reason for that. I mean,

330
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Speaker 3: home field in the NFL is generally regarded as being

331
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Speaker 3: worth two points in most places these days. For a

332
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Speaker 3: game with a team from Florida traveling up to Green Bay,

333
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Speaker 3: Wisconsin in mid December, I would say that home field

334
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Speaker 3: advantage is probably closer to four points. I mean, we

335
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Speaker 3: know what the field is like up there. A lot

336
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Speaker 3: of teams have trouble getting the right cleats, which is

337
00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:09,120
Speaker 3: something the Packers don't really have issues with. I mean,

338
00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:13,120
Speaker 3: Sam Hoppin is from Green Bay, Wisconsin. Sam tell Joe

339
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Speaker 3: about December in green.

340
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Speaker 2: Yeah, the pride of Green Bay, Sam Hoppin, let's talk

341
00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:20,280
Speaker 2: about this one. What do you think you're confident that

342
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:21,920
Speaker 2: your boys can handle their business here?

343
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Speaker 4: I am. And to answer Pat's question, it's miserable in

344
00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:32,120
Speaker 4: Green Bay in December. I cannot stress how much you

345
00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:34,680
Speaker 4: should not really be going to Green Bay in December,

346
00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:37,720
Speaker 4: actually December through like mid March. But in any case, Yeah,

347
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Speaker 4: I mean, I think Love is just going to slice

348
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Speaker 4: this defensive part. Desmond Ritter just through for nearly three

349
00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:47,080
Speaker 4: hundred and fifty yards against them. I think Green Bay

350
00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:50,320
Speaker 4: will get both Christian Watson and Aaron Jones back in

351
00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:53,640
Speaker 4: this game, which should help Tampa. Bay also lost both

352
00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:57,760
Speaker 4: Carlton Davis and Ryan Neil in the game against Atlantis,

353
00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:01,800
Speaker 4: that their status is sable for a secondary that was

354
00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:06,360
Speaker 4: already questionable. So I love Green Bay and the Packers.

355
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Speaker 3: Yeah, and Joe, by the way, the reason I'm not

356
00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:11,720
Speaker 3: that keen on the Jordan Love over so I just like,

357
00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:15,320
Speaker 3: if it's ten below wind Shell, I'm not excited about

358
00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:16,200
Speaker 3: passing over.

359
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,200
Speaker 2: So fair enough, I'm just excited about that secondary coming

360
00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:20,879
Speaker 2: to town at the end of the day. So, and

361
00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:24,200
Speaker 2: if Watson's healthy two that's another one. I like, all right, Atlanta,

362
00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:26,120
Speaker 2: they are six and seven two fighting for that South.

363
00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:28,600
Speaker 1: They're gonna go to Carolina in a game they should win.

364
00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,639
Speaker 1: But Desmon Ritter on the road has not been great.

365
00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:32,680
Speaker 1: Carolina's at home.

366
00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:34,600
Speaker 2: They are three point underdogs at home, and they've earned

367
00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:36,840
Speaker 2: at least that thirty five is the number for this game,

368
00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:40,199
Speaker 2: minus one sixty eight on the Atlanta side, plus one

369
00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:44,120
Speaker 2: forty on Carolina. This is a tricky one here, Sam,

370
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:46,280
Speaker 2: because this feels kind of trappy in a lot of ways.

371
00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:49,400
Speaker 2: Your trust level of Atlanta on the road has certainly

372
00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,320
Speaker 2: been I would say all of us cautious to say

373
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Speaker 2: the least. So do you have any early leans on

374
00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:56,480
Speaker 2: this one or you're just gonna walk away?

375
00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,919
Speaker 4: I hate that. My early lean is the Falcons. But

376
00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:03,560
Speaker 4: the Saints, who we're going to talk about here in

377
00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:08,199
Speaker 4: a minute, played terribly against the against the Panthers and

378
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:12,560
Speaker 4: still blew them out. I mean, like this, the Panthers

379
00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,960
Speaker 4: are just a complete mess right now. The Atlanta defense

380
00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:20,640
Speaker 4: has shut down the inferior imponents that they've played lately

381
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:26,080
Speaker 4: in the Saints, the Bucks, and the Jets. So again,

382
00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:29,560
Speaker 4: it is little trust, as I have in Desmond Ritter

383
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:33,400
Speaker 4: and Arthur Smith. I think the Falcons should have no

384
00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:35,200
Speaker 4: issue taking care of business.

385
00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:35,760
Speaker 1: Fitz.

386
00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:37,720
Speaker 2: I'm surprised you're not getting a bigger number here, like

387
00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 2: a plus one to eighty or even plus two hundred

388
00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,159
Speaker 2: for the Panthers to win this football game, which is

389
00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:45,199
Speaker 2: what gives me hesitation here a little bit too, Like

390
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:47,800
Speaker 2: what do they know here that's going on that I

391
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:49,840
Speaker 2: don't have a beat on. This is just a weird

392
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:53,560
Speaker 2: one to me. It feels like a bad situation for Atlanta.

393
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 2: But to Sam's point, Carolina just can't get out of

394
00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 2: their own way, and from a leadership standpoint, they don't

395
00:18:58,800 --> 00:18:59,159
Speaker 2: seem to.

396
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Speaker 1: Have any no.

397
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 3: But the Falcons often can't get out of their own

398
00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:09,199
Speaker 3: way either, So I think that's why maybe there's hesitation to,

399
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 3: you know, put bet money on the Falcons and drive

400
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:14,800
Speaker 3: up this line, and why I think we might see

401
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,600
Speaker 3: it stick close to three. It just feels like Arthur

402
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 3: Smith is Wiley Coyote opening the package from the ACME company,

403
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,760
Speaker 3: Like I just yeah, Like I agree with Sam, like

404
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 3: first instinct, bet the Falcons, but then I think about it,

405
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:31,760
Speaker 3: and I don't want to bet the Falcons.

406
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:34,479
Speaker 2: Well, make sure whatever your betting. Make sure you make

407
00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 2: all your bets count and make sure you're downloading the

408
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:40,040
Speaker 2: Betting Pros app use all the tools here, and of

409
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,000
Speaker 2: course if you haven't checked it out, and how's a

410
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:44,359
Speaker 2: good time because if you have iOS the first three

411
00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:47,200
Speaker 2: days you get that premium version for freeze, you can

412
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:49,200
Speaker 2: really check out all the bells and whistles. This is

413
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:51,119
Speaker 2: a great weekend to do it too, to download it

414
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,200
Speaker 2: because you got Saturday football, you got the Bowl games

415
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:55,760
Speaker 2: like Fisy was talking about, You've got the Sunday NFL,

416
00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 2: Monday NFL forget it. We are busy not to mention

417
00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:00,439
Speaker 2: all the NBA stuff too, so make sure you're using that,

418
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 2: and get.

419
00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:02,080
Speaker 1: In on our NFL contest too.

420
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,240
Speaker 2: Just click the community tab go in there, or go

421
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,040
Speaker 2: to Bettingpros dot com slash NFL contest. We're still doing

422
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,800
Speaker 2: weekly prizes, monthly prizes, so get in on that as well. Now,

423
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:12,399
Speaker 2: this next game is gonna be interesting to see if

424
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 2: I can entice either of you on New Orleans is

425
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:18,000
Speaker 2: six point favorites at home against the New York Giants,

426
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 2: who have not been good this year. We're gonna see

427
00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,760
Speaker 2: what happens with the Giants tonight and Tommy Devido the

428
00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 2: Pride of New Jersey. Thirty six and a half is

429
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 2: the number for this one plus two fifteen on the

430
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,600
Speaker 2: money line for the Giants, FITZI, I gotta say my

431
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:34,120
Speaker 2: early lean is Giants money line. Like I'm just kind

432
00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 2: of throwing into the chaos and I'm gonna lean into it,

433
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,119
Speaker 2: which feels like I look at the Saints and I

434
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 2: just can't see them as a six point favorite almost

435
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 2: against anybody. So if I'm gonna go play, I might

436
00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 2: as well go hard. That's my early lean for this game.

437
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:48,159
Speaker 1: What's yours?

438
00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:51,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't have an early lean for this game, Joe,

439
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,199
Speaker 3: But I can totally understand that perspective. I mean, I

440
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:58,720
Speaker 3: think by the measure of most power rankings, the Giants

441
00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 3: are I think I think there's still ahead of the

442
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,639
Speaker 3: Panthers as far as being regarded as worst in the

443
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 3: league in terms of DVOA and like Massy Peabody, you know,

444
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,879
Speaker 3: Sam could fact check me on that one. But even

445
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 3: though the Giants may be regarded as the worst team

446
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:17,399
Speaker 3: in the league, You're right, I do not want to

447
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 3: give six points to anyone with the Saints, and like,

448
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 3: look at how that offense has just struggled, like they're just.

449
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 5: Incapable of getting the ball into the end zone.

450
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 3: It seems like a lot of the times when they

451
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,160
Speaker 3: get down to the red zone on third and eight,

452
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:35,120
Speaker 3: like we're seeing Derek Carr throw short of the sticks

453
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 3: all the time, or constantly under duress with the pass rush.

454
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 5: Like this offense is just gross.

455
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,119
Speaker 3: So no, I do not want to lay points with

456
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,920
Speaker 3: the Saints by any means, But I'm also not totally

457
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,159
Speaker 3: sure I want to bet the money line and endorse

458
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:48,919
Speaker 3: the Giants here.

459
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 2: Joe, all right, well, maybe I can sell you guys

460
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,400
Speaker 2: on the plus six here at side of the Giants

461
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,399
Speaker 2: at the mines one ten. Sam, is that something I

462
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:56,880
Speaker 2: can interest you for Week fifteen?

463
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean sure, Like I don't think Tommy DeVito

464
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 4: at this point is the worst starting quarterback in the league.

465
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 4: I mean.

466
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 1: Very low in the last month it has.

467
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 4: Been, especially with all the quarterback turnover. But why is

468
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 4: Derek Carr still starting? I mean a week after leaving

469
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 4: a game with a concussion, with a neck injury, a

470
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 4: rib fracture. Like any he just goes out and just

471
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:30,119
Speaker 4: isn't isn't capable of producing. There was a report this

472
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 4: morning that Carr had suffered three different rib fractures this year,

473
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 4: two of which nobody even knew about until he told reporters.

474
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 4: And so, I you're right, like the Saints really shouldn't

475
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 4: be favored by this many points against any other team

476
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 4: in the NFL. Maybe maybe the Panthers, But it's that's

477
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:53,639
Speaker 4: way too many points for me to lay with with

478
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 4: Derek Carr and the Saints.

479
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 2: Now here's an intriguing one Houston seven to six going

480
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 2: to Tennessee four and eight. Now, obviously the calculus has

481
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 2: changed her quite a bit with that injury.

482
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 1: Here to the quarterback situation. CJ.

483
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:09,199
Speaker 2: Stroud questionable for that game obviously cancussion protocol after that

484
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 2: game with the Jets where he hit his head on

485
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 2: the turf. They are two point underdogs going to Tennessee,

486
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 2: which feels kind of right right now is like a

487
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 2: holder situation. Thirty seven and a half is the number

488
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,160
Speaker 2: here on the total plus one h five on.

489
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:21,119
Speaker 1: The money line for Houston.

490
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,919
Speaker 2: So Sam, this is one of those again, there's early

491
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 2: value to be had depending on how you see things

492
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 2: going out in the future. Here to me, the biggest

493
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 2: one is potentially that under at thirty seven and a half.

494
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 2: That's the one that I want to jump in on,

495
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 2: and I want to jump in early. But what do

496
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 2: you think about this game?

497
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's probably the right side from the total perspective.

498
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:46,959
Speaker 4: I think if the Texans do get Davis Mills in

499
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 4: this game, they'll probably lean on the run a little

500
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 4: bit more. But again, like going back to what I

501
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:56,119
Speaker 4: mentioned earlier in the show with respect to Easton Stick, Like,

502
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 4: I don't think Davis Mills is the worst backup to

503
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 4: He has some experience, has shown some flashes, and this

504
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:09,400
Speaker 4: Titans pass defense is among the worst in the league. Yeah,

505
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 4: it's a little up in the air as to whether

506
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:16,239
Speaker 4: Stroud comes back from the concussion he left in the

507
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 4: middle of the fourth quarter. There wasn't really a reason

508
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 4: to bring him back into the game even if he

509
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 4: was cleared, given the score of that game. But we've seen,

510
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:28,400
Speaker 4: for some reason, more players getting cleared from concussion protocol

511
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 4: more quickly over the last couple of weeks. But the

512
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 4: hit that he took with the whiplash looked not great

513
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 4: at all. So I think we get Davis Mills just

514
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:44,919
Speaker 4: as in an abundance of caution from Houston, saving their

515
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 4: franchise quarterback from getting hurt anymore. But I still think

516
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:52,239
Speaker 4: Houston is the better team. I think I like the

517
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 4: money line for Houston as well. Their defense has continued

518
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 4: to play pretty well as well. I think Will Anderson

519
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 4: might have left that get the game, so hopefully he's

520
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 4: healthy too. But I just don't see much going right

521
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 4: for Tennessee lately.

522
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 1: Texans Titans fits any early thoughts.

523
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I kind of agree with both of you guys,

524
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 3: show I do like the under on this game because

525
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 3: even though day Mills is not like one of the

526
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 3: worst backup quarterbacks in the league, he is going to

527
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:25,119
Speaker 3: be without Tanked l and probably without Nico Collins too,

528
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 3: so that really limits the Texans passing game. And then

529
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 3: you've got the Titans with their you know, mediocre offensive line,

530
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 3: rookie quarterback, aging running back. So I don't see a

531
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 3: lot of points going up in this game. And I

532
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 3: do think there's value on the Texans. Like, first of all,

533
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,879
Speaker 3: you're not drawing dead if CJ. Stroud doesn't play on

534
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:50,159
Speaker 3: this bet, because Davis Mills is a decent backup quarterback,

535
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 3: But what if CJ. Stroud does clear concussion protocol plays

536
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:55,479
Speaker 3: in this game? And then all of a sudden, you're

537
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 3: getting two points going up against Will Levis and the Titans.

538
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 3: So I'm happy to plunk down some money on the

539
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 3: money line on this one, and you know, take my

540
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,439
Speaker 3: chances if it's Mills and feel pretty good about it.

541
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 5: If it's CJ.

542
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 1: Stroud, that's fair, that's fair.

543
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:12,359
Speaker 2: This is the time to do that. If that's the

544
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:14,199
Speaker 2: future you think is gonna happen. The future for this

545
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 2: next game, this is another four outcome game for me.

546
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 2: This one is my walk away this week, at least

547
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 2: so far. I can't wait to hear your insights on

548
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 2: this one. The Cleveland Browns are eight and five taking

549
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 2: on the Bears five and eight. This one's in Cleveland.

550
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 2: Cleveland is three point favorites at minus one fourteen. That's

551
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 2: the consensus line at betting Pros. Thirty eight is the

552
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 2: consensus number. And then plus one forty.

553
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 1: Five for Chicago.

554
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,879
Speaker 2: Now, I know we were very bullish last week on Chicago,

555
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 2: whose defense is played better.

556
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 1: Field has made some plays.

557
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 2: Some creativity in the offense there with DJ Moore has

558
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 2: been fun. But the Cleveland Browns defense continues to be

559
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 2: a very strong unit. Joe Flacco is the starter of

560
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 2: the rest of the season. So FITZI any early value

561
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 2: on this one between the Browns and the Bears.

562
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, Joe, we talked a little bit about this one earlier.

563
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 3: I like the Bears here. I mean, yes, the defense

564
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 3: has been lights out, but boy, ever since the Bears

565
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 3: acquired Montese Sweat at the trade deadline. Like the Bears

566
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 3: run defense had been pretty good before that, now their

567
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:14,120
Speaker 3: pass defense is very good. Also, as you mentioned, they've

568
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 3: gotten healthier in the secondary two, which has helped. But

569
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 3: like right now, the Bears have a top ten defense,

570
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 3: so I think they can hang in this one. I

571
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 3: think they can create some problems for Joe Flacco, who

572
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 3: we know can move the ball but will also make

573
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 3: some mistakes if you force him into it. And I

574
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 3: think the Bears are capable of forcing Flacco into mistakes.

575
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:36,880
Speaker 5: So yeah.

576
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 3: Add the fields to Dj moore Magic, which, like those

577
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 3: guys are hooking up for big plays every week, and

578
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 3: I think Dj Moore is capable of beating these Browns cornerbacks.

579
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 3: Even though maybe the best all around group of cornerbacks

580
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 3: in the league. This could actually be an entertaining game,

581
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 3: although I think maybe the under is the better percentage

582
00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 3: play here than the over because both of these defense

583
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 3: says are terrific or have been terrific lately.

584
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 2: Sam, this one's tougher for me because I dig what

585
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 2: fits a saying. But the Bears on the road is

586
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 2: where I start to get a little iffy, Like that's

587
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 2: where I'm not as confident. But what about you when

588
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 2: you're looking at this game here between the Browns and Bears,

589
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:16,879
Speaker 2: do you see this the same as fits or maybe different?

590
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 4: I don't have a much much of a read on

591
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 4: this game. The Browns defense has shown some gaps the

592
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 4: last couple of days, or excuse me, the last couple

593
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 4: of games. Their advanced stats are still encouraging. Instead of

594
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:34,399
Speaker 4: this game, I want to tease a little bit of

595
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 4: a long shot bet on on the Browns to win

596
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 4: the AFC at thirty five to one. I know it

597
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 4: sounds crazy.

598
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 1: It doesn't outside actually, outside of.

599
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 4: The Dolphs likes they control their own destiny to get

600
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 4: into the playoffs. I think there's still an outside a

601
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 4: good chance that they could win the division. Given their

602
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 4: schedule and the Ravens play the Jaguars, forty nine Ers

603
00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 4: and Dolphins in their next three games. That are not

604
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:03,480
Speaker 4: all guarantees, so they could come away with the division win.

605
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 4: They've beaten the excuse me, the Ravens and the forty

606
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 4: nine ers. Granted when the forty nine ers were banged up,

607
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 4: but yeah, but.

608
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,239
Speaker 1: They banged them up. The it's not loose sight of that.

609
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 2: They're the physical football team that banged up that offensive

610
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 2: line of the forty nine ers.

611
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 4: I'm just saying, for a team that looks like they're

612
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 4: going to get into the playoffs, the defense could carry

613
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 4: them a couple of things go their way. Joe Flacco

614
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 4: is not playing the worst quarterbacking by any means right now,

615
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 4: so just just a.

616
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 2: Little I don't think it's crazy man, defense travels. They

617
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 2: got a good head coach. I don't think that's nuts

618
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 2: at all. I think the AFC is open for business.

619
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, there is no like three hundred pound gorilla in

620
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 3: the AFC. Like, all these teams have their flaws. I mean,

621
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 3: look at the Chiefs. The Chiefs are struggling to score

622
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 3: points and.

623
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 2: Last night is a perfect example of that fact. You know, Yeah,

624
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 2: nobody's really run away with the AFC. Even the Ravens

625
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 2: at the top right now, they don't feel.

626
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 5: Like struggle to put away the Rams at home, right,

627
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 5: exactly right.

628
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,479
Speaker 2: And the next one here we're gonna talk about Miami,

629
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 2: which is a team you and I were talking about fits,

630
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 2: which is they've beaten every team they're supposed to be

631
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 2: and they haven't punched up one time to any of

632
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 2: the teams that are theoretically better than them or more experienced.

633
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 2: So this is that after this game here against the Jets,

634
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 2: their schedule obviously becomes very different. You're starting to look

635
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 2: at them having to take on the Bills, they're gonna

636
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 2: have to take on the Cowboys, They're going to take

637
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 2: on some better teams and see if they can actually

638
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 2: get some w's. But they're another one too that I

639
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 2: think has a shot to win the AFC. Their twelve

640
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 2: point favorites at home against the Jets. I know Zach

641
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 2: Wilson had himself a day against the Texans, but I

642
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 2: don't know if that's something we can bet on weekly.

643
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 2: Forty and a half is the number for this game,

644
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 2: plus four seventy five for the Jets to win. Sam,

645
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 2: We'll start with you on this one, Miami, New York.

646
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 2: Can Miami cover this twelve That's the question.

647
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 4: I think they can. They took care of business against

648
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 4: the Jets on Black Friday just a couple of weeks ago,

649
00:30:55,280 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 4: and there's not really much that has changed. Obviously, they

650
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 4: lost Jalen Phillips in that game, which which changes things

651
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 4: a little bit, and Zach Wilson is going to be

652
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 4: the quarterback instead of Tim Boyle. But twelve right now

653
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 4: feels like a little bit too much. I mean, the

654
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 4: Jets defense still can carry its weight by by every

655
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 4: measure that they've faced, So I'm staying away from this

656
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 4: one right now.

657
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 1: Fitz.

658
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 2: They didn't have a chan though for that Black Friday game,

659
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 2: and I think that's the X factor to me that

660
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 2: makes me feel much more comfortable at the twelve in

661
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 2: this one.

662
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, can the Jets ugly it up and

663
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 3: keep this one close? Like I think they're capable of it.

664
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 3: I know it didn't work out on Black Friday, but

665
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 3: I don't know, Like, it wouldn't shock me to see

666
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 3: the Jets make this a close game, and it wouldn't

667
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 3: shock me to see the Jets lose by three touchdowns.

668
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 3: And you know, like, I don't think we're going to

669
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 3: get another Haley's Comet game from Zach Wilson where he

670
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 3: seventy five percent of his passes for three hundred yards.

671
00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 1: And not so.

672
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, man, I just like this, This line seems right.

673
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 3: And I thought about this total, like, what do you

674
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 3: do with this high powered offense running up a route

675
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 3: against a really really good pass defense and with the

676
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 3: Jets having so much trouble putting points on the board

677
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 3: themselves most weeks. Yeah, forty and a half does seem

678
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,680
Speaker 3: like the right number here. So I just I don't

679
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 3: see any value here.

680
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 1: I look at Miami at the twelve.

681
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 2: That's what I'm looking at because I think the way

682
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 2: the Jets have not been able to handle the run

683
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:29,479
Speaker 2: this year. If I'm them, I'm just running the football

684
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 2: down their throats. I'm getting those guys out there on

685
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 2: jet sweeps too, like Tyreek Hill.

686
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 1: That's what I'm doing. I'm attacking. See. The thing that

687
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 1: Miami can do is attack the Jets at their.

688
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 2: Weakness, their strike, those their secondary So when you can

689
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 2: have those guys underneath quick, when you can have those

690
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 2: guys getting those jet sweeps.

691
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 1: To me, that's the X factor, especially with.

692
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 2: The e chan back, that is the tough thing for

693
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 2: me where I think the Jets are going to have

694
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 2: a hard time in Miami. The Kansasity Chiefs have been

695
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,239
Speaker 2: having a hard time lately with the referees, with their

696
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 2: wide receivers, with Garius Tony on numerous numerous reasons, the

697
00:32:56,800 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 2: drops the off sides. But they are eight and they're

698
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 2: gonna travel to New England. They're nine and a half

699
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 2: point favorites in this game. Thirty seven and a half

700
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 2: is the number New England on the money lines. Plus

701
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 2: three fifty now fits the Kansasity Chiefs have to get right.

702
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 2: This feels like a get right game here the Newing

703
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 2: The Patriots are not a good football team. They had

704
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 2: a wacky game on Thursday against the Steelers. I'm not

705
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 2: again gonna copy and paste that here and think that

706
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 2: they're gonna give the Chiefs problems. However, nine and a

707
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 2: half does feel like a big number. Therefore, Yah, do

708
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 2: you like New England on that side?

709
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 3: I'm tempted by New England and if I were forced

710
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 3: a bet this one, and I am forced about it

711
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 3: in some pools where I have to pick every game

712
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 3: against the spread, So I'm not gonna put my own

713
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 3: money on this one, but I am going to take

714
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 3: the Patriots and the points in these pools, and like,

715
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 3: can you believe we have a total this low for

716
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 3: Kansas City Chiefs game thirty seven and a half.

717
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 2: No, I mean, look, it's it's their inability to It's

718
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 2: like everything you've watched with the Chiefs in the last

719
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 2: few years, where there are the team where things go

720
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 2: right in these matches, things happen, he's great plays in

721
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 2: these great moments.

722
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 1: None of that's happened.

723
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 2: This year, and none of it in the last couple

724
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 2: of games. And that's been the problem. What about Sam

725
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 2: Hoppins money? You want to bet him his money on

726
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 2: this game at all? Is that of yours?

727
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,760
Speaker 4: I mean, I think that's what you like. I think

728
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:22,359
Speaker 4: here is the Patriots. I mean you can get them

729
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 4: at plus ten in some places right now. Again with

730
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 4: this low of a total. I tweeted this out this morning,

731
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 4: but the Chiefs are one loss away from going under

732
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 4: their preseason win total for the first time since Andy

733
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,799
Speaker 4: Reid became coach, which again sort of tells you, like

734
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 4: the over on their win total was the freest money

735
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 4: that you could find for the past several years. And

736
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 4: I've got a Chiefs over eleven and a half win

737
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 4: ticket right now, and I'm sweating this out with the

738
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,799
Speaker 4: remaining schedule that they have and where they're at now.

739
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 4: But and with such a low total, a double digit

740
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:06,479
Speaker 4: spread is what you want to be looking at. It's,

741
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 4: you know, regardless of you know, the teams that are playing,

742
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:13,280
Speaker 4: because the Chiefs do not look like themselves.

743
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 2: They don't, they don't, and New England has been very

744
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:18,640
Speaker 2: good against the run, not that that's necessarily what they

745
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 2: want to do. We'll see if they get to check

746
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 2: go back for this game, but lots of unknowns. I

747
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 2: think we're all in agreement here. Maybe that nine and

748
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:25,319
Speaker 2: a half on New England's way to go. Kansas City

749
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 2: wins this game, but I don't know, man, they just

750
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:31,319
Speaker 2: can't keep going in this direction, can they. Washington coming

751
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 2: off of buye, they're four to nine taking on the

752
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 2: Rams in LA.

753
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:35,400
Speaker 1: They are six and seven.

754
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 2: They almost almost took out the Baltimore Ravens, but they

755
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 2: fell short in overtime. Six and a half point favorites,

756
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 2: though that seems like a lot.

757
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:43,760
Speaker 1: To me for the Rams.

758
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 2: Forty nine is the number plus two forty five for Washington. Now,

759
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:49,279
Speaker 2: the value on this board is very clear. It's the

760
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 2: Washington upset. So, Sam, is that where you're at or

761
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:55,439
Speaker 2: do you feel like maybe just take Washington with the six,

762
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 2: or maybe you think the Rams are you know, now

763
00:35:58,640 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 2: a force to be reckoned with.

764
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 4: Perhaps I don't know that they are a force to

765
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 4: be reckoned with. But the Rams have played very impressively.

766
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 4: I mean, obviously lost the game against the Ravens in overtime,

767
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 4: but there are I think few quarterbacks playing and throwing

768
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,839
Speaker 4: the ball as well as Matthew Stafford right now. You know,

769
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 4: Cooper Cup and Pook Poka Naku with probably the catch

770
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 4: of the year without any gloves in a rain game

771
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 4: on Sunday. I love the Rams in this spot. Their

772
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 4: their defense is still a little suspect, but Aaron Donald's

773
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 4: just going to tear apart the inside of that Commander's

774
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 4: offensive line. And Sean McVeigh just a clear, clear tier

775
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:45,360
Speaker 4: above Ron Rivera right now. And in terms of coaching,

776
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 4: so I love the Rams here. I think again, teasing

777
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:52,359
Speaker 4: them down to half a point or minus a half

778
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:55,319
Speaker 4: point is is a great way to play this game too.

779
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the thing. It just six and a half

780
00:36:58,000 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 2: does feel like a bit much to me. That's some

781
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 2: good advice. Pat you in agreement with Sam.

782
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 5: Sam hit on it.

783
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:06,720
Speaker 3: At first I thought the Commanders might make an interesting

784
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 3: money line bet, and then I thought about the Ron

785
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:13,320
Speaker 3: Rivera versus Sean McVay coaching matchup, and I had second

786
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:14,879
Speaker 3: thoughts about that money line bet.

787
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 5: So this seems like a good line.

788
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:23,319
Speaker 3: I just as functional as this Rams offense has been,

789
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:26,319
Speaker 3: in as pleasant as surprise as the Rams have been,

790
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 3: I really don't want to lay six and a half

791
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 3: points with them, even to the Commanders whose defense struggles.

792
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:34,279
Speaker 3: I do think we're gonna see points in this game,

793
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 3: Like I don't know if we'll get over this, this

794
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,320
Speaker 3: big number forty nine, but like we're gonna see points

795
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 3: this Washington secondary, those cornerbacks trying to hang with Pooka

796
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 3: Naku and Cooper Cup.

797
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 5: Man, I don't see that happening.

798
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 1: How do see it either?

799
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 2: And I think the thing that broke me towards Sam

800
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:55,880
Speaker 2: and the being more comfortable with the Rams here is

801
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 2: the mistake that's coming eventually in this game here with

802
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 2: Sam Howe hosting them a touchdown and that defensive score,

803
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:05,880
Speaker 2: that defensive turnover in their own side of the field

804
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 2: with a short field, that would probably be the seven

805
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 2: points that I'm looking for in this game, and I

806
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 2: think you are going to get that. Therefore, I think

807
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:14,879
Speaker 2: the Rams are probably the right side of this, even

808
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 2: though that number is a little larger than we're used

809
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 2: to with the Rams. And to your points, him Stafford

810
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:21,360
Speaker 2: played really well in that game and he looked very sharp.

811
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 2: So that was a good thing to see the Arizona Cardinals.

812
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 2: Not a good thing to see for them at home

813
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 2: San Francisco. Forty nine ers come into town. Thirteen and

814
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 2: a half is the number on this one. San Frian

815
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 2: obviously ahead on this one. They are minus thirteen and

816
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 2: a half favorites. Forty seven is the number plus six

817
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:41,399
Speaker 2: hundred for the Arizona money line. To me, the most

818
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 2: complete team in the NFL right now is the forty

819
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 2: nine ers. They went there, they handled their business last week,

820
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 2: and they did not have a letdown game against Seattle

821
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 2: after it this week, which was I think very important

822
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 2: to see that they are focused right. They went out

823
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 2: there and they kicked the crap out of Seattle too,

824
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 2: and they continue to play very physically. I just don't

825
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:01,840
Speaker 2: think Arizona's up for this task. Pat and I know

826
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 2: it's a big number, but do you think Arizona can

827
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 2: cover it.

828
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:07,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, Oh gosh, I don't know, Joe. I just I

829
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:11,000
Speaker 3: hate lines like this. I mean, this is like trying

830
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 3: to decide whether to you know, take Alabama and lay

831
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 3: thirty nine and a half points to McNeese State, or

832
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 3: take Michigan and lay thirty five to Eastern Illino.

833
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:20,759
Speaker 1: Then what about the forty seven?

834
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 2: What is that something where confident that they get the

835
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:27,880
Speaker 2: thirty and the Arizona can scratch out seventeen.

836
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not confident in the Cardinals doing their part.

837
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 3: So this just I hate games like this because you

838
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 3: can get back toward in again like this so easily

839
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 3: if you bet the forty nine ers, and you know, like,

840
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 3: I don't want to bet the Cardinals because I'm not

841
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:44,600
Speaker 3: confident they can make this a game.

842
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 5: So I'm just gonna walk away from this one.

843
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 2: Right, Fitzy's walking away, Sam, you're walking away or you're

844
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 2: walking towards it.

845
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 4: No, I'm walking towards the forty nine ers the sense

846
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 4: thereby they're on a five game winning streak. Their margin

847
00:39:56,880 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 4: of victory in those five games thirty one Jacksonville thirteen

848
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 4: versus Tampa Bay eighteen at Seattle twenty three at Philadelphia

849
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 4: and twelve this past week versus Seattle. That you said it.

850
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 4: They're the most complete team. They have everything going there.

851
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 4: They're mostly healthy on both sides of the ball, save

852
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 4: a couple of guys on defense that they're going to

853
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 4: go and take care business.

854
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 2: I told Pat, I cash out of my hurts MVP

855
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:27,359
Speaker 2: on the weekend. I made money on that, made three

856
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 2: x the money, and I reinvested that money in the

857
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:32,880
Speaker 2: forty nine ers winning the NFC and winning.

858
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:33,280
Speaker 1: The Super Bowl.

859
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 2: And I just think that's right now. I'm looking around.

860
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:40,320
Speaker 2: I don't see anybody in the AFC that's really for real.

861
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:44,800
Speaker 2: And the NFC Cowboys are interesting, but again, like cowboys

862
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:46,400
Speaker 2: gonna go on the road and win a game in

863
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:47,279
Speaker 2: San fran I don't know.

864
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:48,800
Speaker 1: That's a tough sell right now for me. Now that

865
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:49,840
Speaker 1: San France teams.

866
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 2: That they're in the they are locked in that one

867
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 2: spot to me, like, I don't think they're gonna give

868
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 2: that spot up here looking at the schedule. Dallas though,

869
00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 2: coming off a huge win at home, let's give them credit.

870
00:40:58,040 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 2: They are ten and three. They go to Buffalo. This

871
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:02,240
Speaker 2: is a tough game here, right you're waiting you're waiting.

872
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 1: For the Eagles.

873
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:04,319
Speaker 2: You got the Eagles, you handle the Eagles. Now you're

874
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 2: going on the road into the elements a little bit

875
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 2: here potentially in Buffalo. They are one and a half

876
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 2: point favorites. Buffalo coming off a game they needed to

877
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 2: have to stay alive. They are alive at seven and six.

878
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 2: Forty nine is the number plus one oh five? What

879
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:17,479
Speaker 2: do you think you're sam you want to go over

880
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:19,760
Speaker 2: here for this forty nine or is this one maybe

881
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:23,839
Speaker 2: something that is more underwhelming potentially in terms of total.

882
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:28,839
Speaker 4: Man the over, that's a lot of points. I think

883
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:31,840
Speaker 4: you need a lot to go right. The Dallas defense

884
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:35,319
Speaker 4: looked a little suspect against Seattle in Week thirteen, but

885
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 4: man Stefan Gilmour played one of the best games that

886
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 4: he's had in a while. I still think that Cowboys

887
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 4: defense is legit. Dan Quinn is coaching his tailoff. The

888
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 4: weather forecast for Buffalo right now is low forties, mid

889
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 4: forties for this game, so I don't think weather is

890
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:57,360
Speaker 4: going to be a concern. I don't think Dak should

891
00:41:57,400 --> 00:42:01,879
Speaker 4: have much issue throwing the ball against Buffalo, especially if

892
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 4: Micah Hyde is out. I like Dallas on the money

893
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 4: line here, all.

894
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 2: Right, Dallas on the money line of plus one oh five,

895
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 2: again not getting too much value on that fits.

896
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 1: Where do you see this one?

897
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 5: Yeah?

898
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 3: I kind of agree with Sam that maybe the under

899
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,400
Speaker 3: is the way to go here because the Dallas defense

900
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 3: is so strong and the Buffalo defense isn't bad. Like,

901
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:25,360
Speaker 3: I think the line is fair, and I wanted to

902
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 3: think maybe this was another instance where Buffalo's home field

903
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 3: advantage against a Southern team this time of year might

904
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 3: be worth more than two. But Sam just kind of

905
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:37,360
Speaker 3: popped that balloon with his forecast saying that it's not

906
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 3: going to be too bad in Buffalo this weekend, So

907
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:43,720
Speaker 3: I don't know. Joe, we talked about the difference between

908
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:46,800
Speaker 3: the Dolphins and the Bills, and how the Dolphins stomp

909
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 3: the bad teams and then can't beat the good teams,

910
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 3: whereas the Bills will occasionally stub their toe against the

911
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 3: team they should be but man, like they go in

912
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:59,799
Speaker 3: there like every time the Bills play a good team,

913
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:05,800
Speaker 3: it's like creed, Yeah, exactly, Like they throw haymakers against

914
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:08,359
Speaker 3: the good team. So I do think the Bills can

915
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:11,279
Speaker 3: hang in this one. I'm not interested in betting either

916
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 3: side to be honest.

917
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 2: All right, this next one, I am spinning myself in

918
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 2: circles about Baltimore Jacksonville. Baltimore's three and a half point

919
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 2: favorites on the road forty three and a half is

920
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 2: the number plus one fifty for Jacksonville. Now it's clear

921
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:24,960
Speaker 2: the value is on Jacksonville in the money line to

922
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 2: win this game outright, to find a way.

923
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 1: And this is the.

924
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:30,640
Speaker 2: Typical Baltimore stub your toe game. If we watched the

925
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 2: Ravens long enough this year in years past to know

926
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 2: that this is the one that scares me the most.

927
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:36,880
Speaker 2: This is the game and they should go out there.

928
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 2: They should win, and frankly, they should take advantage of

929
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:42,360
Speaker 2: the secondary and take advantage of Trevor Lawrence banged up

930
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:44,799
Speaker 2: and missing Christian Kirk and missing some other pieces. That

931
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 2: being said, Pat, I can't. I don't find confidence in

932
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:49,800
Speaker 2: any of these lines because they all feel spot on

933
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 2: to me. I don't see any value.

934
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:52,479
Speaker 1: What do you think I.

935
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:55,759
Speaker 3: Like the Ravens show. See to me, the Ravens just

936
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,239
Speaker 3: had the toe stubbing game and they averted the toe

937
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 3: stubbing against the Rams. They almost lost that one, and

938
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 3: it is pretty rare for the Ravens to play two

939
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:08,320
Speaker 3: poor games in a row under John harbaught just doesn't

940
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 3: happen that often. So meanwhile, the Jaguars are not looking

941
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 3: like the team they were maybe a month month and

942
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 3: a half ago when they had everything rolling. Trevor Lawrence played,

943
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:21,719
Speaker 3: Gotta give him credit for the grit, but he didn't

944
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 3: look right. Three interceptions and like the defense just doesn't see.

945
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 3: But against the pass, they've been pretty terrible lately. So

946
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 3: I like the Ravens a lot here.

947
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:35,439
Speaker 2: All right, how about you, Sam, were looking at Jackson

948
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 2: of Baltimore?

949
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:38,120
Speaker 1: What do you see? Yeah?

950
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:41,680
Speaker 4: Don't have a lean on either side here, but for

951
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:43,839
Speaker 4: the total I do kind of like the over Neither

952
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 4: team really plays that fast, but I think both can

953
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 4: have success passing the ball. Over the last four weeks,

954
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 4: both of these teams ranked in the top eight in

955
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:59,720
Speaker 4: passing EPU or play. I think both defenses. The Ravens defense,

956
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 4: I think it's a little fraudulent, Like I don't totally

957
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:06,360
Speaker 4: buy what they're selling in the Jacksonville defense obviously just

958
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 4: got sort of torn apart by Joe Flacco and the Browns.

959
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:17,719
Speaker 4: So I like to overhear forty three and a half okay, forty.

960
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 2: Three and a half their last one here, Philly finally

961
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 2: gets a breather. They're going on the road though, to Seattle,

962
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 2: so this is another tricky game. Like I feel like

963
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 2: the Eagles gas tank is on empty.

964
00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 1: Sam.

965
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 2: They are three and a half point favorites on the

966
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 2: road against Seattle. Forty eight is the number plus one

967
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 2: sixty on Seattle money line, Sam, Eagles are the better

968
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:36,840
Speaker 2: football team. They have just gone up against you heavyweight

969
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:39,360
Speaker 2: champion after heavyweight champion for about six weeks.

970
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 1: Now.

971
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:42,520
Speaker 2: They should go handle their business. Are you confident that

972
00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:44,319
Speaker 2: they can against Seattle on this Monday night?

973
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:48,280
Speaker 4: I think they can. I mean I think it largely

974
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:51,960
Speaker 4: depends on who we get at quarterback for Seattle. It's

975
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:55,240
Speaker 4: it was kind of a weird thing with Geno Smith

976
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:57,840
Speaker 4: dealing with a groin injury. It was I think a

977
00:45:57,880 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 4: little unexpected towards the end of last week that he

978
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:04,360
Speaker 4: was was questionable. Obviously didn't play against San Francisco. I

979
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:08,880
Speaker 4: think we probably get Drew Lock again here. It sounded

980
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 4: like it was about a two week injury for for

981
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 4: Gino Smith. So if we get Drew Lock, then I

982
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:19,440
Speaker 4: love the Eagles here, but I am I'm not totally

983
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:22,919
Speaker 4: confident that in that and honestly, like Drew Lock could

984
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 4: have some success against this Eagle secondary.

985
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 2: All right, fits your thoughts here on this one again

986
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:32,399
Speaker 2: seems on the surface to be a breather, a get

987
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 2: right game, a restabilization potentially of the Eagles. Is that

988
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 2: what we get or do we get something far different

989
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 2: with the Seattle to team that you know, just two

990
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:41,360
Speaker 2: weeks ago all of a sudden took the Cowboys to

991
00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:41,800
Speaker 2: their limit.

992
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 3: I do not want to lay six points with the

993
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 3: Eagles right now to a team that has a major

994
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:50,279
Speaker 3: home field advantage.

995
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 1: And I think three and a half actually this one, so.

996
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:56,600
Speaker 5: Oh sorry, I'm looking at the wrong Len. Yes, three

997
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:57,000
Speaker 5: and a half.

998
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:02,240
Speaker 3: Still do not want to do that, man, Like exactly,

999
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:04,959
Speaker 3: Drew Lock could throw for three hundred yards and three

1000
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:07,080
Speaker 3: touchdowns against this Eagles secondary.

1001
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 5: And like Joe you said it, I mean like the Eagles.

1002
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:13,040
Speaker 3: One thing that maybe isn't talked about enough is the

1003
00:47:13,080 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 3: loss of Shane Steichen and what that has done to

1004
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:17,600
Speaker 3: the offense. And right now it seems like they are

1005
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 3: having trouble righting the ship with the passing game. Like

1006
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:22,879
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts has not been very effective through the air,

1007
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:25,560
Speaker 3: And we talked about it on the show last week

1008
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 3: and I said, I didn't think Jalen Hurts would be

1009
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 3: able to go toe to toe with Dak Prescott in

1010
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 3: a shootout, and that was kind of the case in

1011
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:38,439
Speaker 3: week fourteen now against Drew Locke. Yeah, maybe Jalen Hurts

1012
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 3: can win that shootout. But man, I just do not

1013
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:44,839
Speaker 3: want to take the Eagles as a road favorite right

1014
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:47,880
Speaker 3: now going coast to coast, Like, I'm just not feeling

1015
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 3: the love for the Eagles right now.

1016
00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:52,319
Speaker 5: They need to get it back together before I'm ready

1017
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 5: to endorse them with my hard earned.

1018
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 2: Money, understandably, So I think that's the truer words I've

1019
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 2: never been spoken. And we talked so much about nam

1020
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 2: leaving and what that happened. You know what the Kansas

1021
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 2: City offenses look like ever since. Same can be said

1022
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 2: of psyching too, and I don't think we emphasize that

1023
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 2: enough because the Eagles kept finding ways to win games

1024
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 2: and squeeze out victories, but there's an underbelly there that

1025
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 2: is concerning, especially in these as you said, these shootout games,

1026
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 2: are these games where they really got to match other teams.

1027
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:20,960
Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens in week fifteen. It is

1028
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:23,160
Speaker 2: a busy week FI fifteen, and therefore you need the

1029
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:25,800
Speaker 2: Betting Pros app. Make sure you subscribe to the podcast

1030
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 2: where we get your pods, and make sure you download

1031
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:30,440
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1032
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:32,640
Speaker 2: and click that little bell and if you d drop

1033
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 2: a comment below, you just might win a one year

1034
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:39,000
Speaker 2: free premium upgrade to Betting Pros. The premium version is unbelievable.

1035
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 2: It'll help you get through all of the remaining weeks

1036
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:44,000
Speaker 2: of the NFL season and the playoffs as well. There's

1037
00:48:44,040 --> 00:48:46,920
Speaker 2: still a lot of NFL way during left in this

1038
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 2: tank here. That'll do it for us, but the story

1039
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:51,240
Speaker 2: of the game goes on for Sam and Pat.

1040
00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:53,840
Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.

1041
00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

1042
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:59,560
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1043
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:03,040
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1044
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:06,000
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1045
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:09,720
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1046
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:12,280
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