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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Is there a little sign of

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Speaker 1: concern in the banking system in the Eurozone, Yes, but

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Speaker 1: it's still very very contained. The US pursued a very

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Speaker 1: aggressive policy early art inventing payoff several years later. You

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Speaker 1: have a fundamental problem of architecture, and that's why any

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Speaker 1: small issue is amplified immediately in the marketplace. Bloomberg Surveillance

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Speaker 1: your link to the world of economics, finance and investment.

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Speaker 1: On Bloomberg Radio, Good morning, Michael McKee and Tom key

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Speaker 1: Mus to talk about after the Fed minutes. Will do

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Speaker 1: that in a moment. Bloomberg Surveillance, Bloomberg twelve, Boston, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: eleven three on New York, nine sixty Bloomberg the Bay Area.

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Speaker 1: Good morning on the West Coast, Washington FM, and we

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Speaker 1: said good morning across the nation in Canada. Serious the

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Speaker 1: next time Channel one nine Team Bloomberg Surveillance. I brought

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Speaker 1: you by Cone Resident Accounting, Tax Advisory. Cone Resident will

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Speaker 1: provide your business with the industry insight it needs to

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Speaker 1: succeed in the dynamic economy. Sign up for insight find

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Speaker 1: out how at cone resnik dot com. C O H

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Speaker 1: N R E z N I c K Mike bringing

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Speaker 1: David Sowerby. But first for David and for me and

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Speaker 1: our audience report on the minutes yesterday. What did Mr

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Speaker 1: McKee clean? Uh, not a whole lot. The interesting thing

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Speaker 1: was that they weren't fighting about what to do. They

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Speaker 1: were trying to figure out what was going on. Not

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Speaker 1: a lot of some said this, and some said that.

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Speaker 1: It was basically, we got a problem out there with oil,

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Speaker 1: we got a problem with China, we got a problem

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Speaker 1: with the dollar, we got a problem in particular with

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Speaker 1: financial markets. What does everybody think the issues are? And

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Speaker 1: the basic conclusion on all of them is we don't know.

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Speaker 1: So they punted, of course in January, and now it's

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Speaker 1: beginning to look like March is completely off the table.

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Speaker 1: You had Jim Bullard last night coming out, who was

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Speaker 1: one of the people who thought they strongly should raise

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Speaker 1: rates last year, saying now let's wait for a little

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Speaker 1: while because he is concerned about the direction of things

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Speaker 1: going forward. David souber Bey with us with a little

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Speaker 1: of sales on small cap, large cap, on the equity markets,

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Speaker 1: and we review again, David, how is your world changed

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Speaker 1: in the last six weeks? If it's an indeterminate sort

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Speaker 1: of a churning, messy week. How is your world of

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Speaker 1: lesser cap stocks changed more opportunity is the simple answer.

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Speaker 1: When you when you look at the disparity between smaller

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Speaker 1: cap to larger cap, particularly smaller cap value leaning stocks,

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Speaker 1: the opportunities to go hunting and to buy are much

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Speaker 1: more robust than they were at the end of October

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Speaker 1: when the markets spurted higher after the disappointing third quarter.

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Speaker 1: It's a more robust environment to be buying, and at

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Speaker 1: the same time, for your client interfacing, it's it's it's

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Speaker 1: it's some way the long term belief of let's look

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Speaker 1: at this over the next two to three years and

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Speaker 1: not try to guess about the next week. Well, in uh,

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Speaker 1: you had Jim Buller talking about that last night about

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Speaker 1: how we have seen um any issues about bubbles come

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Speaker 1: down because the market has come down. Are people going

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Speaker 1: to go back in and do what you're suggesting? Or

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Speaker 1: if the FED is off the hook in March, is

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Speaker 1: it you know, party on again. Well, I'll say it

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Speaker 1: was interesting to hear your comments, but before you introduced me,

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Speaker 1: I read the comments last night from from President Bullard.

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Speaker 1: I've grown up as as very respectful of the St.

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Speaker 1: Louis Fed that they believe in the efficacy of money.

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Speaker 1: And I thought it was very telling that even he

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Speaker 1: said it's time to put any tightening on hold, and

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Speaker 1: he's he's very ardent on on the Fed's number one

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Speaker 1: mission and it's price stability. Ultimately, low inflation is very

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Speaker 1: good for stocks. It has proven to be over the

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Speaker 1: last fifty plus years. So I think that was a

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Speaker 1: quick telling statement. And then for the buying, I noticed

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Speaker 1: last week that when you combined barish and neutral investor sentiment,

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Speaker 1: it was over and the bearers sentiment by itself was

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Speaker 1: pushing on. Historically, whenever it's reached that washed out level,

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Speaker 1: it's been more of a bottoming, not a bottom, but

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Speaker 1: a bottoming process and a time to get in there

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Speaker 1: and selectively looked to be a buyer of stocks rather

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Speaker 1: than rather than holding cash on the sidelines. What is

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Speaker 1: the state of the top line of small caps versus

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Speaker 1: big multinationals. We always love to do a nominal GDP

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Speaker 1: exercise with the giant companies? Can you do that with

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Speaker 1: lesser capitalized companies? You absolutely can, and and the h

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Speaker 1: and the numbers are still better that if you look

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Speaker 1: at the small up stocks that they are growing their

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Speaker 1: revenues between four and five percent, while large caps are

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Speaker 1: more like two to three percent, and that's been an

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Speaker 1: important factor for for their sales growth. It hasn't been

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Speaker 1: that way in the fourth quarter. Their sales are roughly flat.

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Speaker 1: But if you look at at at smoothing it a

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Speaker 1: bit that the sales growth is still better than large

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Speaker 1: caps regardless of the capsize. Everybody's not everybody, but an

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Speaker 1: awful lot of analysts are saying we were in a

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Speaker 1: profit recession. Now doesn't matter how big company is, nobody

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Speaker 1: nobody can make any money and they won't be able

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Speaker 1: to make it in this quarter or the next quarter either.

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Speaker 1: And Mike, you saw the headline from Walmart with the

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Speaker 1: dreaded upward flat. Yeah, I mean flat is the is

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Speaker 1: the new growth. And I looked at Walmart this morning.

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Speaker 1: Whether it's the last ten years, the last fifteen years,

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Speaker 1: they've at best matched the growth rates of the S

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Speaker 1: and P five. They've trailed whether you want to call

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Speaker 1: the consumer staple stock or consumer discretionary stock, they've trailed

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Speaker 1: both sectors. And and that's been walmart challenges. It's gotten

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Speaker 1: gotten bigger and badder. But when you look at that,

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Speaker 1: even the names I gave you this morning, they tend

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Speaker 1: to lean towards the mid cap to the smaller cap size.

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Speaker 1: I think this are always more interesting to talk about

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Speaker 1: with Bloomberg than than a mega cap stock. And that's

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Speaker 1: I think a vote for the long term merits of

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Speaker 1: the strategy and the better buying opportunity today, David, give

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Speaker 1: us an idea within a manufacturing grocer recession or true recession,

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Speaker 1: is there an industrial small MidCap that you have a

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Speaker 1: particular affinity for, folks. I want to make this clear.

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Speaker 1: Mr Sowerberry works for Loomas Sales. It's really nice of

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Speaker 1: him to talk to about individual companies. A lot of

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Speaker 1: people what are called long only bis. I won't do that.

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Speaker 1: We appreciate. I'll do that well, thank you. Uh, maybe

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Speaker 1: not quite in the industrial sector, but leaning more towards

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Speaker 1: the consumers. Right. A couple of names to talk about

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Speaker 1: this morning that are more in the mid cap space.

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Speaker 1: H QVC, which is pound for pound, one of the

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Speaker 1: most profitable retailers. It can compete with Amazon, where there

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Speaker 1: are challenges with Walmart competing with Amazon because they have

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Speaker 1: more loyal customers are repeatable, their products are more differentiated

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Speaker 1: versus what you can buy on Amazon. Cash Flow estimates

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Speaker 1: and margins continue to go higher. I'm a big believer

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Speaker 1: in the merits of free cash flow and free cash

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Speaker 1: flow yield, which is a company's free cash flow divided

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Speaker 1: by its market capitalization as evaluation metric. That's over ten.

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Speaker 1: That's more than two times the overall stock in the

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Speaker 1: SMP five. So QVC I think is a is a

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Speaker 1: retailer e commerce with a with a tech tilt to it.

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Speaker 1: I think that that represents merit in this in this

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Speaker 1: type of market. Uh right, David, we had Neil kush

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Speaker 1: carry and yesterday the newly minted president of the Many

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Speaker 1: opposite his bank will do a study of two big

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Speaker 1: defailed banks. You spend a lot of time looking at

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Speaker 1: um smaller banks. Is there? I mean, if they've been

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Speaker 1: washed out in the financial carnage they have along with

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Speaker 1: the big banks, and I'm not sure that you can

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Speaker 1: really differentiate them. Interesting I think I look at the banks,

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Speaker 1: and sometimes it's hard to differentiate between a great large

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Speaker 1: gap versus a great small cap bank. On the financial side,

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Speaker 1: I'd rather own a name like Discover, which does consumer

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Speaker 1: lending credit cards h A T M Machines. The stock

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Speaker 1: is sold off considerably after its highs of a couple

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Speaker 1: of years ago, and yet the company is generating a

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Speaker 1: yield of about two and a half percent, sells it

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Speaker 1: a pe of eight times earnings. UH are are on

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Speaker 1: equity better I always find it in a financial sector.

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Speaker 1: I want to look for something a little more unique

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Speaker 1: rather than just trying to differentiate it among the many,

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Speaker 1: many banks that I have to choose from. David. Thank

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Speaker 1: you so much, David. So are we with Lomas Sales

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Speaker 1: and Company. Greatly appreciated features up seven, del futures up seventy,

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Speaker 1: a churn to the market, oil though stronger Brent crude.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to the European quote thirty five thirty four.

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Speaker 1: Caroline hid Over in London today was making a big

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Speaker 1: think about thirty six is being an important level in

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Speaker 1: that area where not there, but we're getting there. A

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Speaker 1: couple of days up in a row of oil gives

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Speaker 1: some enthusiasm UH to the market. The German two year

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Speaker 1: yield like a rock negative point five one two. It's

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Speaker 1: been worse but still very very negative. We mentioned the

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Speaker 1: Swiss fifteen year negative and the twenty years slightly positive

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Speaker 1: as well. Over in the land of the negative yields.

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Speaker 1: The yen one thre team eight six stronger yet but

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Speaker 1: again not breaking through the drama that you would expect.

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Speaker 1: The euro the well I I stand corrected. The euro

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Speaker 1: is moved one ten eighties three. Mic I just noticed

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Speaker 1: that a weaker euro one ten eight three on the

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Speaker 1: euro down significant. That's two or three days in a

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Speaker 1: row like pounds Sterling weaker as as well. The dollar

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Speaker 1: index not reflecting that as much, um only at seven.

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Speaker 1: So where's the money going? You wonder if that's brexit

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Speaker 1: worries his Prime Minister Cameron goes to Brussels. You know,

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Speaker 1: he probably stays at the Lows Regency hotel in Brussels.

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Speaker 1: We might guess John Tish will join US cinement from Lows.

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Speaker 1: Futures up six down, futures up sixty eight. I'll check

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Speaker 1: it with Blake A. Bar now and get the latest

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Speaker 1: world and national headlines. Michael, Bye, Tom, thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: President Obama will travel to Cuba next month. The US

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Speaker 1: former we opened its embassy, an event at last year

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Speaker 1: after ties were severed more than a half century ago.

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Speaker 1: Stop would be part of a broad a trip to

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Speaker 1: Latin America. Vice President Joe Biden says President Barack Obama

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Speaker 1: is looking to nominate someone who had passed support from

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Speaker 1: Republicans to replace late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. Biden

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Speaker 1: spoke today on Minnesota Public Radio. Biden says President Obama

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Speaker 1: is not going to be able to pick the most

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Speaker 1: liberal jurist in the nation and put them on the court.

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Speaker 1: The star of the v H one reality TV series

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Speaker 1: Mob Wives, known as Big Ange, has died following nearly

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Speaker 1: a year long battle with cancer. Year old Angela Riola

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Speaker 1: died early this morning in the New York City Hospital

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Speaker 1: while surrounded by family and friends. Global News twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours a day, powered by our journalists more than a

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Speaker 1: hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world. Michael, bar

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Speaker 1: Tom and Michael, thanks so much. We welcome you. Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: troph Hunt Boston, Bloomberg eleventh Roe OH in New York

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Speaker 1: one h Washington FM. Good more. This is Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Speaker 1: Coming up. We'll find out how really diverse business is

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Speaker 1: weathering the American economy these days. Jonathan Tish from Lowe's

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Speaker 1: Corporation with US next Global business news twenty four hours

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Speaker 1: a day at Bloomberg dot Com, the Radio plus Mobile

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Speaker 1: Act and on your radio. This is a Bloomberg Business

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Speaker 1: Flash and I'm Karon Moscow. Futures are higher this morning.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to the First Word Breaking news desk for

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Speaker 1: today's morning call, and here's Bill Maloney. Good morning Bill,

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Speaker 1: Good morning Karen. US futures are trading higher, but have

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Speaker 1: paired some of their games since the last time we spoke.

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Speaker 1: Death futures now hired by fifty three points as to

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Speaker 1: the futures gained four and NASA futures rise by sixteen.

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Speaker 1: US ten YELD hits one point eight two per cent,

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Speaker 1: and main EU PR markets are trading mostly higher, led

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Speaker 1: by one point six percent gains in Germany. On the

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Speaker 1: US economic front at eight thirty, Philly fed and initial

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Speaker 1: jobs claims at ten thirty, natural gas storage change and

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Speaker 1: at eleven o'clock energy inventory numbers. After the bells night,

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Speaker 1: Navideo beat Net app was mixed and Jack in the

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Speaker 1: Box missed lowest estimates shares it down nineteen percent pre

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Speaker 1: market regarding aarrings this morning, Parago missed Cabella's beat Lab

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Speaker 1: Corps moves mixed and Walmart cut year sales forecast Q

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Speaker 1: four Camp sales also missed. Shares it down four percent

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Speaker 1: pre market. In deal news Ingram Micro to be bought

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Speaker 1: before thirty eight ninety a share and another news Devin

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Speaker 1: Energy price six and nine million shares at eighteen seventy five. Finally,

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Speaker 1: some of your key Wall Street upgrades and downgrades. Amazon

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Speaker 1: raised to buy Versus Hold at Cancord price target seven fifty,

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Speaker 1: red Hat raised to buy its City Group Garment cut

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Speaker 1: the underweight at JP Morgan, and finally IBM raised to

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Speaker 1: overweight at Morgan Stanley with a price target of one forty.

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Speaker 1: Live from the first to Breaking News des scom Bill Maloney,

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Speaker 1: Karen Hery, thanks billan to hear live breaking news over

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Speaker 1: her Blueberg type squawk a goo on your terminal, that's

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Speaker 1: ask you a w K go. That's a Bloomberg business splash.

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Speaker 1: Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much. Bloomberg Surveillance Brunch

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Speaker 1: by Investco. Investing is it about meeting benchmarks, It's about

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Speaker 1: achieving goals. Find out how invest goes high conviction approach

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Speaker 1: can help. Visit investco dot com slash high Conviction. Michael,

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Speaker 1: We've got an important guest, special guest, an old friend

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Speaker 1: of yours from your power Breakfast days, still held with grace. Yes, Um,

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Speaker 1: we were just talking about it. If there's a way

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Speaker 1: to get you back in there other than for the

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Speaker 1: beverage your choice at five o'clock. Uh, dis cha? Co

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Speaker 1: chairman of Lows Corporation, Tom can do the hotel room

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Speaker 1: part and the balance cheek part. I want to ask

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Speaker 1: you the macro question of from your point of view

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Speaker 1: as a big company. I mean, you have we're talking

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Speaker 1: hotels about to bend. You're in the oil and gas business,

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Speaker 1: as they say out in Oklahoma, Uh, and all kinds

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Speaker 1: of other things. How do you perceive the economy and

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Speaker 1: the people who are under their desks worried about the skyfall? Clearly,

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Speaker 1: we see the issues that are stressing people out, and

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Speaker 1: we're aware through the various businesses that you just mentioned, energy, insurance, hotels.

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Speaker 1: But we are not pessimistic and we don't feel that

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Speaker 1: we're necessarily on the cusp of a recession. The business

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Speaker 1: is okay and and pretty good in some places, so

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Speaker 1: we we are moving ahead. We are allocating capital as

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Speaker 1: to where we think it can get the best return.

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Speaker 1: We had Lows Hotels have been very aggressive over the

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Speaker 1: last couple of years in terms of acquisition. We bought

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Speaker 1: six hotels in markets that we felt were necessary to

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Speaker 1: expand our national footprint. We're basically a US player of

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Speaker 1: our twenty four hotels, twenty three or domestic. We have

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Speaker 1: one in Montreal, although we do have a hotel under

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Speaker 1: construction United States, and we have hotel under construction in

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Speaker 1: Toronto that will look and so we're committing capital to acquisition,

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Speaker 1: to renovations. We're about to announce a big renovation of

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Speaker 1: our Lows Mommy Beach Hotel. And in part it goes

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Speaker 1: to what we were talking about earlier, and that's supply

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Speaker 1: and demand. So the last couple of years have been

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Speaker 1: very strong for the industry because demand has been pretty

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Speaker 1: robust and supply has been kept in tapp Supply starting

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Speaker 1: to increase, and there are certain markets and some of

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Speaker 1: the markets that were in New York City, Miami Beach, Nashville,

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Speaker 1: where there is a lot of new supply coming and

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Speaker 1: so that concerns us a bit. So in Miami Beach,

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Speaker 1: where we have the Lows Mommy Beach Hotel been open

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Speaker 1: about eighteen years, very successful we're doing a multimillion dollar

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Speaker 1: renovation starting next summer, and so we're committing capital to

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Speaker 1: the hotel business because obviously we feel that we're gonna

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Speaker 1: get the proper return. We know price discrimination to nights

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Speaker 1: at your lovely Park Avenue address is gonna cost me

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Speaker 1: in the vicinity of one thou fifty three dollars forty

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Speaker 1: two cents the lovely holiday in over Street, which many

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Speaker 1: people know near the theater district. Two nights is half

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Speaker 1: that five dollars. What's two nights at Airbnb. I'm not

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Speaker 1: an expert on Airbnb, but just based on anecdotal, probably

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Speaker 1: a hundred bucks and night if you're gonna go up

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Speaker 1: to an airbnbing a nicer part of town, a hundred

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Speaker 1: fifty bucks. But their their argument, the hotel industry's argument

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Speaker 1: is that it's very un level playing field. That the

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Speaker 1: owners of these units have no interest in or no

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Speaker 1: reason to be concerned about fire life safety systems. They

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Speaker 1: are not paying any type of tax, they're not paying

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Speaker 1: into unemployment insurance for our coworkers. That makes it unfair,

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Speaker 1: and I'm not sure that they're taking from us per

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Speaker 1: se at the lowest regency hotel and sixty first Street

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Speaker 1: and Park. For the industry, it's a massive benefits free ride,

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Speaker 1: absolutely absolutely, and there are the emphasis on the word massive.

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Speaker 1: I mean, what are the axes. We're paying a huge

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Speaker 1: amount of taxes and and once again in the area,

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Speaker 1: we look at the money that we spend on fire

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Speaker 1: life safety because obviously the safety of our guests and

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Speaker 1: our coworkers paramount, and how we look at our buildings

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Speaker 1: and they don't do any of that. So Airbnb is

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Speaker 1: a big issue. They're not going away. They are very

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Speaker 1: much a part of the hotel industry, and we just

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Speaker 1: have to find ways to create demand for our properties

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Speaker 1: so that we can keep them full, that we can

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Speaker 1: raise our rates. If you look at red part growth

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Speaker 1: and up our upscales probably gonna be four or this

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Speaker 1: year again, so we continue to be optimistic about the industry,

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Speaker 1: but very aware of Airbnb. And then you've got the O. T. A. S,

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Speaker 1: the expedias and the price lines of the world, and

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Speaker 1: that's a whole other conversation. Well, we'll have that conversation

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Speaker 1: here next Jonathan Tist joining us, gracing us with his

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Speaker 1: presence uh this morning. Of course, the Tusche families have

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Speaker 1: a number of businesses, Mike, don't they have a job

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Speaker 1: opening now or where is that? Steve's not here, but

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Speaker 1: they have you announced the coach as it's well, it's

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Speaker 1: not all season now, so Arthur Levitt has been able

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Speaker 1: to keep his job over here before he starts coaching.

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Speaker 1: Coach was our offensive court. Arthur does take credit for

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Speaker 1: predicting that, for telling you guys that you should be

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Speaker 1: a new coach. I think it's very cool you kept

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Speaker 1: it inside. Yeah, I mean I don't think about it.

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Speaker 1: But that's we'll talk a little bit about that, but

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Speaker 1: much more to speak to. Jonathan Tish about features of five,

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Speaker 1: tough features up fifty four tenure yield Again, it's a

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Speaker 1: turn and jumble to the market looking for news. As

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Speaker 1: I mentioned, oil elevated, but within the trend within the

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Speaker 1: jumble as well. The euro one seventy eight a little

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Speaker 1: bit again strength excuse me, the yen seventy eight year

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Speaker 1: a weakness through one eleven one two. Michael McKee and

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Speaker 1: Tom Keane with Jonathan Tish and Economics, financial investment, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: surveillance coming up the with all due respect, highlight brought

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Speaker 1: you by land Rover. If it's in your nature to

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Speaker 1: cast off the every day and seek adventure. The Discovery

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Speaker 1: New York, Cloomberg eleventh Yo to Washington, d C, Bloomberg

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00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 1: to Boston, Bloomberg twelve hundreds to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine

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00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:37,680
Speaker 1: to the Country Series Exam Channel one nine and around

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Speaker 1: the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Bloomberg dot Com. This

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00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:45,640
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Surveillance. Nil brie I, Michael A. Key along

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Speaker 1: with Tim Keene Economic Indicators brought to you by Commonwealth

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Speaker 1: Financial Network. When it's time to change the conversation, talk

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00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 1: with a broker dealer r I A that's ready to listen,

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00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,920
Speaker 1: call eight six six four six to eight, or visit

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Speaker 1: Commonwealth dot com to learn more. Well, we've got initial

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Speaker 1: job list claims just out and they come in much

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Speaker 1: lower than forecast two hundred and sixty two thousand, and

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Speaker 1: that's down from two hundred and sixty nine thousand last week.

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Speaker 1: The forecast was for two hundred and seventy five thousand.

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Speaker 1: So the labor market still seems to be tom in

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Speaker 1: very good shape. This is the hour in which we

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Speaker 1: are supposed to get the Philadelphia Fed business numbers. They

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Speaker 1: have not crossed yet, but we'll certainly bring them to

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Speaker 1: you as as soon as they come across. But uh, well,

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Speaker 1: here we go. The Philadelphia Fed Factory Index negative two

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Speaker 1: point eight versus UH negative three point five. The prior

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Speaker 1: month is still showing a little contraction, but improving some.

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Speaker 1: The caveat as always, the Philly Fed numbers don't correlate

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Speaker 1: to the national numbers week moving average. Rolling over again

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Speaker 1: in a constructive direction, and we have a gentleman with us.

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Speaker 1: Who's who's brilliant it understanding the pulse of getting bodies.

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Speaker 1: We forget one of the goals is interesting putting it.

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Speaker 1: You either run a business that employs a lot of

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Speaker 1: people or euro mafia. I'm sorry, they're outsick today. We

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Speaker 1: need the twelfth floor clean, do something. I mean, that's

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Speaker 1: John tissues reality right. Well, I would imagine in an

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Speaker 1: environment where you're you're coming from a ten percent unemployment

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Speaker 1: rate down, it hasn't been hard to find people who

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Speaker 1: want work. But Mike, there is a big difference. We

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Speaker 1: want people, as we say, that have a gene for hospitality.

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Speaker 1: So yes, there are times where we've got vacancies, whether

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Speaker 1: it be in housekeeping, engineering, in the front desk, but

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Speaker 1: we want people who understand what our goal at Lows

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Speaker 1: Hotels is in terms of making our guests feel comfortable,

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Speaker 1: making them feel wanted, and offering and exceeding expectations. And

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Speaker 1: so we go through whatever job you're applying for at

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Speaker 1: Lows Hotels, whether it be back of the house, whether

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Speaker 1: it be in a kitchen or in a senior management position,

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Speaker 1: we do have some testing that we do to make

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Speaker 1: sure that you fit into our view in terms of

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Speaker 1: how we like to offer hospitality. Will describe the labor

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Speaker 1: market these days, I mean we hear, uh, it's very

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Speaker 1: hard to find highly qualified, technically qualified people. It's much

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Speaker 1: easier to find people on on the lower end. Well,

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Speaker 1: the service sector of our economy certainly has taken over

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Speaker 1: a lot of the job hiring, and that's why you're

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Speaker 1: seeing in terms of lodging, in terms of the restaurant industry,

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Speaker 1: a lot of jobs. And I do take some of

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Speaker 1: the disparaging remarks remarks about the kinds of jobs. These

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Speaker 1: are not Hamburger flipper jobs. These are good jobs in

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Speaker 1: the lodging industry. We have ten thousand men and women

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Speaker 1: who make a living at lows hotels and so it

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Speaker 1: depending on the market, depending on the time of year.

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Speaker 1: We're having some trouble filling roles, but once again, we

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Speaker 1: we want to make sure that the person fits into

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Speaker 1: our sense of who we are as a company, and

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Speaker 1: that makes it a little bit more difficult when you're

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Speaker 1: we just don't take anybody that walks in. I look

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Speaker 1: John it where we're going. Where it used to be

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Speaker 1: four or five hundred bucks a night, and now the

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Speaker 1: fancy pants hotel is six eight dollars in Europe, you

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Speaker 1: choke on a thousand of it's still much cheaper than Europe,

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Speaker 1: or cheaper than Hong Kong. Where is that trend going?

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Speaker 1: I mean, the business classes jammed on the airlines are

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Speaker 1: your business fancy hotels jammed? Our hotels continue to do well,

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Speaker 1: and the business traveler is still on the road. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: there's always concerned about the leisure traveler and the impact

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Speaker 1: of worldwide events, geopolitical events. Is there really I was

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Speaker 1: talking about earlier on TV, Is there really a positive

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Speaker 1: bump from the dividend that people are getting because they

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Speaker 1: fill their car with a lot less cash than they

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Speaker 1: did before, because gases a dollar seventy in New Jersey.

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Speaker 1: And hopefully some of that is translating into increased demand

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Speaker 1: for the hotel business. But when you go to Europe

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Speaker 1: and you see some of these rates where you go

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Speaker 1: to other countries, you realize that the United States is

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Speaker 1: less expensive than many other destinations. Now, the international traveler

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Speaker 1: is very important to us here in the United States.

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Speaker 1: And the argument had been made that maybe the stronger

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Speaker 1: dollar we would curtail some international travel. We're not necessarily

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Speaker 1: seeing that. We're a little bit worried about Brazil, especially

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Speaker 1: for New York City. Brazil is a very important market.

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Speaker 1: Their economy is in turmoil some other South American countries,

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00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 1: and so we we look at the trends, but so far,

431
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 1: the international traveler is still coming to the United States.

432
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 1: My bed the time we've got left might help me

433
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 1: here my best lows Regency story. So story is walking

434
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 1: down Park Avenue and bumping as she came out of

435
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 1: a car into your hotel, Julie Andrews, And how do

436
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 1: you handle someone that iconic? I mean, did you and

437
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 1: your You ever meet Audrey Hepburn, Elizabeth Taylor used to

438
00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: stay at the lowest Regions. Met Lizabeth when I was

439
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 1: ten years old. What do you do with a hepper

440
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 1: and a tailor or the delight? Hopefully we treat all

441
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 1: of our guests. Please stop it. You treat them with respect.

442
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 1: You we we we don't want to be obsequious. We

443
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 1: have understated service, and I think that's why people like

444
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 1: staying with us. The Regency went through a hundred million

445
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 1: dollar renovation. We're closed for a year. That's when we

446
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,360
Speaker 1: kicked you out. You haven't been invited back yet. I'll

447
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,880
Speaker 1: think about it whether you get another invitation. And we

448
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:34,120
Speaker 1: try to pee people with respect and whoever you are,

449
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,159
Speaker 1: whatever your last name is. But certainly we like having

450
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:42,640
Speaker 1: people that are recognizable. It creates a buzz in the lobby.

451
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 1: But you have to be discreet to be in the

452
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 1: hotel business. If Tom puts away his autograph book, can

453
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 1: he come back? He can? I will find a seat

454
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 1: for him and I will give him some coffee in

455
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 1: the lobby. Because he was coming to Power Breakfast a lot.

456
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 1: I embarrassed him and I'm in the lobby and it's

457
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 1: like oh m G. Martin Feldstein and autograph and the

458
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 1: good economists from Harvard. Jonathan Tissues always thank you so much.

459
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:12,120
Speaker 1: I will study up on the New New York Giants.

460
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 1: Promise you're out of it top right now we're looking

461
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 1: at markets higher. There's the jun Tissues optimism, who is

462
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:22,959
Speaker 1: being reflected in futures at the moment. Can we go

463
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 1: four days in a row? I guess well, it's a

464
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 1: grinding is exactly right, it's a grinding lift Agen one

465
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 1: thirteen and again, West Texas. The barrel is our of surveillance.

466
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 1: Quot you by Volvo Cars, White Planes. Visit Volvo Cars,

467
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 1: White Planes dot com. Here's Mike a bar with the

468
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 1: latest news headlines. My Tom, thank you very much. Retired

469
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 1: Supreme Court Justice Sandrade O'Connor says President Obama should nominate

470
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:54,679
Speaker 1: his choice to replace Justice antonin Scalia. Republicans have threatened

471
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 1: to block the president's nomination. Speaking to K S. A.

472
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 1: Z and Phoenix, O'Connor, who was nominated by Ronald Reagan,

473
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 1: says President Obama should make his choice. I think we

474
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,880
Speaker 1: need somebody there now to do the job and let's

475
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 1: get on with it. Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden says

476
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 1: President Obama is looking to nominate someone who had passed

477
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:19,399
Speaker 1: support from Republicans. Biden, on Minnesota Public Radio says the

478
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 1: president is not going to be able to pick the

479
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 1: most liberal jurist in the nation and put them on

480
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,639
Speaker 1: the court. Donald Trump has a strong lead in a

481
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 1: new Bloomberg Politics pole heading into Saturday's South Carolina Republican primary.

482
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:35,919
Speaker 1: Trump has a nineteen point lead over second place Ted Cruz.

483
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: Turkey's leaders say to Curtish groups were behind a bombing

484
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 1: and anchory yesterday that killed twenty eight people. One of

485
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 1: the groups is backed by the US as a major

486
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 1: ally in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria. However,

487
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: they had of one of the parties blamed the Syrian

488
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 1: based Democratic Union Party since they had nothing to do

489
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 1: with the bombing and blamed Islamic State militants. Global News

490
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, power by our twenty four

491
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 1: hundred journalists and more than a hundred fifty news bureaus

492
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: from around the world. I'm Michael bar Mike Tom, Thank you, Michael.

493
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 1: Time now for the Rakatina Auto Group. Bloomberg NBC Sports

494
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,479
Speaker 1: Update with John Stash Joe all Right, Mike Rangers were

495
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 1: playing well, winning five the last six seven oh and two.

496
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 1: When they're last night at home with the black Hawks

497
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 1: and the Stanley Cup chance and after blowing it to

498
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 1: nothing lead trailing three to Chicago's going twice on the

499
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 1: power play third period and then into an empty net,

500
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 1: they beat Elaine Vino's team five three RpK. We made

501
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 1: three bad reads and puck ended up in the in

502
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 1: the back of our net. Definitely need to be better

503
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 1: than that, especially on a night like tonight where power

504
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 1: play comes up big for us. We're down by a

505
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 1: goal after too, even though we played two pretty good parents.

506
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 1: Power play comes up big. You know, we gotta find

507
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 1: a way to get it done, and uh we weren't

508
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 1: able to do it. Start for Chicago was rookie r

509
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 1: Timmy Pinner in his first career hat check Rangers in Toronto.

510
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 1: Tonight's been a rough first season for Chris Mullin. St.

511
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 1: John's had lost sixteen n secular games. Finally a big

512
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 1: East victory eighty to sixty five over to fall. Stony

513
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 1: Brook had one eighteen in a row. Sea Wolves lost

514
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 1: at Albany eighty two to seventy Duke, who won the

515
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: n C Double A's last year but had fallen out

516
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 1: of the top twenty five the first time since two

517
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 1: thousand seven, now back in and their best win of

518
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,040
Speaker 1: the year by far, seventy four seventy three over arch

519
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 1: rival North Carolina Yankees welcoming pictures and catchers today in Tampa.

520
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 1: That includes the new closer or oldest chapman C. C.

521
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 1: Sabathia back from alcohol. We have met spring training gun

522
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 1: underway yesterday in Port St. Lucy. The nets of offered

523
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 1: their general manager's job to Shaun Marks where it is

524
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 1: he may turn the job down. NBA trade deadline at

525
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 1: three today. Karmelo Anthony does not expect to be moved.

526
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 1: With the Bloomberg NBC Sports update, I'm John stash did John,

527
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 1: thanks so much, appreciate it this morning. Michael, you're you're

528
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 1: you're all excited over there. What do you got. I'm

529
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 1: just looking at the Phillies said numbers. We'll talk about

530
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 1: those with christophin coming up. But I was thinking when

531
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 1: John was was talking about the medicine Yankees in spring training,

532
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 1: and the Boston Red Sox, the San Francisco Giants, the

533
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 1: Oakland A's all of our teams Washington Nationals heading Florida

534
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 1: and Arizona. We should be doing the same. It's Summer's coming,

535
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 1: not that, is it? L from New Jersey's listening. Summer

536
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 1: is coming. The sports report brought you by Ra Katina

537
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 1: Auto Group Maker Move into a brand new Audi not

538
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,280
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539
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Speaker 1: Audie Toms River on Route thirty seven East and Audie

540
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 1: Freehold on Route nine. Global business news twenty four hours

541
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 1: a day, if Bloomberg dot Com, the Radio plus Mobile

542
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 1: Act and on your radio. This is a Bloomberg Business

543
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 1: Flash and I'm pain Moscow. This updates brought to you

544
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 1: by c d O E r MC. Come to the

545
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 1: c d OE Risk Management Conference February nine to March

546
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Speaker 1: second at the Hyatt Regency Coconut Point for Florida. Register

547
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 1: and learn more. It's d O E r M c

548
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 1: US dot com. The number of Americans filing for unemployment

549
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 1: benefits unexpectedly declining last week to a three month low.

550
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 1: Initial doubless claims drop by seven thousand to two hundred

551
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 1: sixty two thousand in the week that ended February, the

552
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 1: lowest since November twenty one. The relief rally that swept

553
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 1: through US equities is entering a fourth day, with the

554
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 1: U S Dock Index futures higher after the recent recovery

555
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 1: lifted the year's most battered companies, who checked the markets

556
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 1: every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg, SNP

557
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 1: EMNI futures up four points, DOWI mini futures up fifty,

558
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 1: and nasdak E mini futures up sixteen. DAX in Germany's

559
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 1: up one point four percent, ten Your Treasury up one

560
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 1: thirty second, the yield one point eight one percent yield

561
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 1: on the two year point seven four percent. Nine x

562
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 1: Scrude oil up two point three percent or seventy one

563
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 1: cents to thirty one thirty seven. A barrel comes go

564
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 1: down four ten percent or four dollars forty cents to

565
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 1: twelve oh seven. Announced the euro a dollar ten ninety

566
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 1: two the end one thirteen point seven eight and Walmart's

567
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: doors down four percent after it had lowered its annual

568
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 1: sales forecast after the strong dollar pulled down the value

569
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 1: of overseas reconnue. That's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and

570
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 1: Mike Karn, thanks so much. You can features up five

571
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 1: A turn to the market. It's on Will Street. The

572
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 1: following is from Bloomberg View Opinions in Common Jerry from

573
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Columnists. I'm Jonathan Bernstein, a columnist from Bloomberg View.

574
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 1: Governor NICKI. Haley is endorsing Marco Rubio, joining Tim Scott

575
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 1: and Trey Goudy as a big three of South Carolina

576
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 1: Conservative Republicans in his corner. Party actors seem to be

577
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 1: finally deciding on Rubio will do him any good. Perhaps

578
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 1: a small bump over current polls would allow Rubio to

579
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 1: finish second in South Carolina. Unless the polls are wrong,

580
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 1: he would need a much larger search to catch Donald Trump.

581
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 1: Strong late shifts and presidential primaries aren't all that unusual,

582
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 1: but there's no sign of it happening so far. But

583
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 1: Rubio does not need to win South Carolina to be nominated.

584
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 1: He just has to bring Trump's share of the down

585
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:00,040
Speaker 1: or to knock out his competitors to set up a

586
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 1: one on one showdown. A three man race in which

587
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 1: Trump gets about a third of the vote everywhere would

588
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 1: be tough but possible for Rubio to win. If Trump

589
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 1: gets two fifths, it would be even harder. So if

590
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 1: getting Nicky Haley helps him even a little, it could

591
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 1: be a big deal. Indeed, I'm Jonathan Bernstein. For more

592
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:16,840
Speaker 1: of you, please go to Bloomberg View dot com or

593
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:20,360
Speaker 1: view go on the Bloomberg terminal. This has been Bloomberg

594
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 1: View and bloomber View commentaries can be heard hourly weekdays.

595
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio Michael McKee to the Minutes. Yesterday I

596
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: wanted to jump in with Chris Rupkey. Thank you Tokyo,

597
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 1: and it's a bi But Chris, I want to give

598
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 1: you a victory lap for the resiliency you have called

599
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 1: for within the American economy. It's there. We all agree

600
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:41,760
Speaker 1: with that. But is it at a new terminal value

601
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 1: that we didn't see four or five, six years ago.

602
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 1: Are we heading towards a point it's a lower, more

603
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 1: dampened point than what we would have guessed, say, five

604
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:54,759
Speaker 1: years ago. Well, that's an interesting question. I mean, I

605
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,799
Speaker 1: want to go out and talk to people. I can

606
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 1: point out that various economics to mystics are strong. Unemployment

607
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 1: rates at generational lows, jobless claims are very close to

608
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 1: the lowest level since the nineteen seventies, car sales are

609
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:12,239
Speaker 1: eighteen million. But then I always get back in my

610
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 1: face somebody in the audience saying, uh, you know, why

611
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 1: doesn't it feel good out there? And I don't really

612
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 1: have a lot to say to that. I mean, economics

613
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 1: doesn't have much to say to that. But you know

614
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 1: that we're more of a risk management oriented you know,

615
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: country markets, financial institutions, even general businesses. We were seem

616
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 1: to be more worried about the future than than we

617
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,800
Speaker 1: used to be. I mean, the risk management profession didn't

618
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 1: really get going until twenty years ago. Anyway. Anyway, it's

619
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 1: very disturbed you sy in the minutes that you know,

620
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 1: they're almost changing gears here saying, uh, increasing the downside

621
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 1: risks to the outlook. I mean, my gosh, did you

622
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 1: see what the e c D said today that in

623
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 1: minutes they said, uh, they got to be careful not

624
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 1: to convey unduly gloomy message. Well, I think when you

625
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:11,360
Speaker 1: point to downside risks, you're kind of risking frightening people. Franklin,

626
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 1: But Mike, you saw several nuggets yesterday and came up

627
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 1: with a few observations. Michael McKee, Well, to be fair, Chris,

628
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:23,719
Speaker 1: when the said was actually mere was the worst of

629
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 1: the you know, whatever was going on in financial markets, etcetera. So, um,

630
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:33,239
Speaker 1: it's it's fair to say if that continued there would

631
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 1: be downside risks, which is kind of what they said.

632
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 1: I guess the issue now is Yeah. The interesting thing

633
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:43,880
Speaker 1: to me though, I mean it felt pretty bad, I

634
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 1: have to admit, and the negative rates angle, you know,

635
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 1: tortured people and made people concerned about the downside. But

636
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 1: I mean, when you look at the stock market, I mean,

637
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 1: you're to date it was only down ten percent, I

638
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 1: mean ten percent, ten percent, but it's sell The commentary

639
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:06,480
Speaker 1: and our own fears myself included, we were acting like

640
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 1: the down industrials were down year to day, that that

641
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 1: used to be a financial crisis. Now we're getting worried

642
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,359
Speaker 1: if you know, stocks tumble seven or eight percent year

643
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 1: to date. I think we're just more evily alarmed than

644
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:22,320
Speaker 1: we used to be. For some reason. I like that phrase,

645
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:27,239
Speaker 1: Michael mcketh, they're a great man, evily alarmed. Well, it

646
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 1: does seem that whatever happened is is wearing off. But

647
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,479
Speaker 1: then the question becomes, do we get back to fast

648
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 1: enough growth that there is an inflation threat that would

649
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 1: then push the Fed to react. Jim Bullard suggesting last

650
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 1: night that inflation expectations have dropped so far that the

651
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 1: answer would be no, even if we do see continued

652
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 1: strong job growth. Yeah, he's become a disappointment. I always

653
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 1: relied on him to be a hawk and talk up

654
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 1: the need no normalized rates, and now he's looking in

655
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 1: the rear view mirror at inflation. I mean, inflation is

656
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 1: the probably the slowest moving economic variable we have out there.

657
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:17,400
Speaker 1: You know, it responds with an incredible lag. And the

658
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 1: thing he seems to be pointing to interestingly is basically,

659
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 1: these inflation expectations from the market, they're only down because

660
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 1: the bond market rallied, as Jan Yellen said, thinking there's

661
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:34,800
Speaker 1: a recession, Well, you know, if the stock market is

662
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: called nine of the last five recessions, the bond market

663
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,880
Speaker 1: is called twenty five of the last five recessions, the

664
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 1: bond market really gets going. It's juicus gets flowing people

665
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 1: by bonds when they think the economy is weaken we're

666
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 1: in recession. So I don't think inflation is too low.

667
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:55,920
Speaker 1: And if it, the public doesn't care that core PC

668
00:38:56,280 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 1: inflation is one point four. They're oblivious to it. It's

669
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 1: it's kind of off to the radar for them right now.

670
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 1: It's not a sign that the economy is not prosperous.

671
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 1: The fact that inflation is only one percent, I don't

672
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:13,959
Speaker 1: get it. Uh, curve, what you do best, Chris, No, Chris,

673
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 1: what you do best is linked fixed income dynamics into

674
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 1: the American economy. What does the yield curve signal to

675
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 1: you right now? Well, the Yeld curve is a bit

676
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:28,400
Speaker 1: of a mess. Yeah, I think all these mark the

677
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 1: sixth income market's incredibly distorted. You know, there's a lot

678
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 1: of corporate bonds being issued people are swapping to they

679
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:40,279
Speaker 1: want to pay the lower floating rate here. I think

680
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,360
Speaker 1: because the Feds kept rates down here at zero for

681
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 1: so long, it's distorting how people finance themselves. And so

682
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,240
Speaker 1: I I don't really trust the Yeld curve to indicate

683
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 1: much anyway. It's the old recession signal that the New

684
00:39:57,760 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 1: York Said did a lot of research on, you know,

685
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:03,800
Speaker 1: in fifteen years of even Uh, it has to actually invert,

686
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 1: you know, I think it's one year bills to yields to.

687
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:13,239
Speaker 1: It hasn't inverted yet, so no reciting. And the time

688
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 1: we got left to you, do you have a handle

689
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 1: our negative rates actually impinge on any given nation? I mean,

690
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 1: are we miles? I mean for every country is a

691
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 1: little bit different, you know, And I'm shocked that they

692
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:31,760
Speaker 1: did that. But you know, Corona likes to to shock

693
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 1: and all the markets. I don't know if you've got

694
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 1: you know, and unfortunately Circle banks generally running out of

695
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 1: ways to wow the markets and make the public, consumers,

696
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 1: businesses to inject them with renewed confidence. But for the

697
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 1: U S, it's absurd for us to lower rates to

698
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:52,920
Speaker 1: negative territory because, I mean, negative rates is supposed to

699
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 1: increase bank lending, but our bank lendings running at double

700
00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:00,239
Speaker 1: digit rates, banks from lending like there's no tomorrow. There's

701
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 1: no need to do negative rates to encourage bank lending,

702
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 1: you know, Thank you so much. Chris Ropki Bank of

703
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:09,280
Speaker 1: Tokyo min Subishi, always with an optimism on the American

704
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 1: accounting Mike, what's the update when you're reading on negative rates?

705
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:15,879
Speaker 1: Chris alludes there the debate that maybe negative rates will

706
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 1: come here. I don't see that about it. Yeah, I

707
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 1: don't see it in the literature. I want to make

708
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: that clear, folks. I was saying this last night over

709
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:27,919
Speaker 1: a beverage of my choice, where we try every day

710
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 1: not to be hyperbolic and hysteric. I mean, I don't

711
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 1: anywhere in the literature might see negative rates coming to

712
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 1: the US. Uh No, the Fed doesn't want negative rates.

713
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:43,920
Speaker 1: There a lot of reasons why it would work here. Uh.

714
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 1: But you can just point to the starting with service

715
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:50,399
Speaker 1: sector inflation is one. Point to the fact that there

716
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 1: are five countries that have imposed negative rates, and the

717
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:57,719
Speaker 1: like thirteen that have negative rates in practice, and not

718
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 1: one of them has seen a pick up in or inflation.

719
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:04,920
Speaker 1: So it's it isn't it would be an experiment and

720
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,960
Speaker 1: experiment that was great talking with John Tish earlier. I

721
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 1: hope you like that. Folks looks for that out of Bloomberg,

722
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 1: a digital A conversation on the hotel business, whether it's

723
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 1: I was struck by the the quick study I did

724
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 1: for rooms at the end of March of a thousand

725
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:24,399
Speaker 1: bucks for two nights versus five hundred dollars for two nights,

726
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:27,839
Speaker 1: versus what Airbnb would do for my kids. It never

727
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 1: occurred to me. To me, it's massively generational. I don't

728
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 1: know where we're we're on the Hotel. We're on the

729
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 1: John Tish side of things right now. We're on a

730
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 1: green screen side Features up six down, features up sixty one.

731
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 1: Another hour, a February hour of Bloomberg surveillance,