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Speaker 1: So how bad is the economy, how much of it

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Speaker 1: is government driven? How much of it is Biden driven.

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Speaker 1: You've got people like Elon Musk who are reportedly cutting

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Speaker 1: ten percent of salaried workforce, and in a message to

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Speaker 1: executives that I have a super bad feeling about the economy,

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Speaker 1: got people like JP Morgan's Jamie Diamond who said that

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Speaker 1: there's a hurricane coming and people should brace themselves. So

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Speaker 1: what is coming? And how do you at home prepare?

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Speaker 1: We're going to get into all of these questions and

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Speaker 1: get answers from my friend Carol Roth. She's awesome. She's

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Speaker 1: a good friend, such a smart woman as well. She's

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Speaker 1: the author of New York Times best selling book The

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Speaker 1: Entrepreneur Equation. She also just most recently wrote The War

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Speaker 1: on Small Business, just really smartly looking at what happened

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Speaker 1: during COVID, how small businesses were just crushed. The average

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Speaker 1: American was crushed in favor of the big right, like

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Speaker 1: the walmarts, the targets, they all got to stay open, right.

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Speaker 1: Every one who's you know, tied to the you know,

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Speaker 1: the government, tied to you know, powerful politicians, whatever, they

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Speaker 1: gotta stay afloat recovering investment bank. Or's got a whole

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Speaker 1: lot going on, including currently as it an outsourced c CEO.

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Speaker 1: She's also just got a great sense of humor as well,

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Speaker 1: which I feel like it is needed in this day

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Speaker 1: and age. Right, everything so depressing, so we have to

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Speaker 1: laugh a little bit, we have to enjoy life. My

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Speaker 1: favorite thing from her website and her bio, it says

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Speaker 1: she advocates for small businesses, small government, and big hair.

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Speaker 1: So she's got a sense of humor. So we're going

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Speaker 1: to get into all these things with Carol Roth. You know,

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Speaker 1: hopefully she clears some things up for us, so stay tuned.

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Speaker 1: So I hate most people at home. I mean, we're

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Speaker 1: all paying more, right, we're all saying that the economy

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Speaker 1: is a total mess. So how bad is it? You know,

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Speaker 1: what do we need to know? So I brought my

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Speaker 1: friend Carol Roth to the show. If you guys don't

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Speaker 1: follow her on Twitter, you should. Not only is she brilliant,

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Speaker 1: but she also has a sense of humor, which is

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Speaker 1: needed in this day and age. So Carol, thanks so

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Speaker 1: much for coming on the show. Thanks for having me,

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Speaker 1: And I'm going to bitterly cling to anything that's even

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Speaker 1: somewhat humorous. So I know this the overall the macro

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Speaker 1: environment isn't funny, but we're going to do our best

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Speaker 1: to keep our wits about as Lisa well. And if

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Speaker 1: you don't follow Carol for financial advice, which you should

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Speaker 1: on Twitter, you should also follow her for where would

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Speaker 1: you wear this? The post so Carol Carol hash tag

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Speaker 1: on what occasion? On what occasion? Rather Yeah, So basically

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Speaker 1: Carol posts these pictures of people distressing insane, but it's

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Speaker 1: mostly like runway, and I think people actually think it

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Speaker 1: looks good, but it's just very, very funny, and then

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Speaker 1: the comments are funny. I try to chime in every

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Speaker 1: once in a while if I appreciate you. The funniest

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Speaker 1: thing is that the one that I started it with

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Speaker 1: actually was something that wasn't from a runway, was something

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Speaker 1: that I had just kind of seen and I didn't

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Speaker 1: mean to make it a thing. I was just like,

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Speaker 1: what occasion would you wear this? But I've conditioned people

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Speaker 1: to respond and to engage everything, and I got so

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Speaker 1: many funny responses that like, I had to do it again.

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Speaker 1: And then when I got funny response, I was like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: this is now officially a thing, and now the thing.

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Speaker 1: But but you know, to the point, people do need

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Speaker 1: some humor because you know, we're looking at the economy.

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Speaker 1: Everyone's paying more for essentially everything. I mean, order uber eats,

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Speaker 1: there's like search charges, taxed attached, you know, attached to everything.

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Speaker 1: Everything is just more expensive. But how bad is the

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Speaker 1: economy truly right now? So it's always interesting when we

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Speaker 1: talk about the economy because the economy is based and

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Speaker 1: measured on sort of these aggregate things. It's based on

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Speaker 1: government spending in part which we don't necessarily want that

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Speaker 1: to be high and adding to our GDP. It's based

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Speaker 1: on net exports, which obviously, given the current strength of

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Speaker 1: the dollar globally and just some of the things, um

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Speaker 1: that have happened around the world. Um, you know, sometimes

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Speaker 1: it's hard to gauge. And then it's based on business

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Speaker 1: investment and the consumer. And so you know, we like

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Speaker 1: it when businesses are investing and hiring and letting people participates,

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Speaker 1: and we like it when the consumer is feeling great

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Speaker 1: about things and it's spending to the extent that their

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Speaker 1: expenditures aren't putting them in a bad financial position. And

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Speaker 1: that's a part that I'm the most focused on and

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Speaker 1: frankly the most furious. You know, we've we've gone from

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Speaker 1: funny to furious in like two seconds. But but this

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Speaker 1: really is the part that I'm furious about because we've

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Speaker 1: had all of these very bad policy decisions, monetary policy

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Speaker 1: from the federal Reserve, fiscal policy from Congress and this

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Speaker 1: administration and frankly the previous this administration, um and other

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Speaker 1: government policies, and they have created the situation, like you said,

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Speaker 1: that we that we are all feeling. But now they're

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Speaker 1: looking to the consumer, the strength of the consumer to

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Speaker 1: spend and to bail us out. And what that means

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Speaker 1: is as individuals people are going in, they are saving less,

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Speaker 1: they are incurring more debts, and they're putting themselves in

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Speaker 1: a bad financial position in order to quote unquote to

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Speaker 1: quote endquote save the economy. So to the extent that

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Speaker 1: the economy is doing well, it's somewhat on the back

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Speaker 1: of people making sacrifices of their financial position. And so,

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Speaker 1: you know, there is this sort of push pull that's

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Speaker 1: going on that I don't think enough people are talking

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Speaker 1: about well. And there's also this shaming of people to

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Speaker 1: your point, and we've got the media basically telling us

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Speaker 1: that breadline are good, that scarcity is good, that like living,

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Speaker 1: having a normal life is bad now, you know, So

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Speaker 1: it's it's quite a time to be alive, it is.

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Speaker 1: It's it's really a slap in the face because the

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Speaker 1: media have been these sort of cheerleaders and useful idiots

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Speaker 1: to point out everything that is completely untrue, and then

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Speaker 1: once it's proved true, to tell you why it's not

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Speaker 1: a bad thing. And we saw that whip inflation, that

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Speaker 1: that entire litany of you know, it's not going to happen.

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Speaker 1: It'll run a little bit hot, it'll be transitory. And

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Speaker 1: then it was, oh, it's the consumer's fault. No, actually,

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Speaker 1: it's good for you. It's only bad for rich people.

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Speaker 1: It's greedy corporation's fault. Now it's Putin's fault. And like

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Speaker 1: you said, breadlines are a great way to meet your neighbor.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's like we're one step away from that

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Speaker 1: um but there, you know, just wear a mask, you know. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean the people are not stupid. They're going to

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Speaker 1: wherever it is, the growthery store, the gas station, trying

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Speaker 1: to book a trip, you know, whatever it is that

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Speaker 1: they're doing in their lives. And they're seeing these you know,

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Speaker 1: percentage increases, which by the way, are far higher than

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Speaker 1: the reported percentage increases. Things like the CPI, which is

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Speaker 1: the official measure of inflation, which has been changed a

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Speaker 1: couple of times since the nineties to depress it because

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Speaker 1: it's tied to adjustments and cost of living adjustments and

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Speaker 1: things like Social Security. If they told you the actual

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Speaker 1: amount um, you know, that that things were really increased,

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Speaker 1: they'd have to pay out a lot more in terms

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Speaker 1: of a number of these different programs. So people know

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Speaker 1: that that they're getting screwed over um. But at the

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Speaker 1: same time, the powers that be want to tell you

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Speaker 1: what a fantastic economy it is, all of this you know, amazing,

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Speaker 1: amazing stuff that they've done, And the part that's the

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Speaker 1: most frustrating is sort of the out of context um comparisons,

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Speaker 1: things like, oh, you know, well in the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 1: was this you know huge as g d P. Well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: like you shut the economy up and then they opened

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Speaker 1: it back up on a comparison level like you would

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Speaker 1: expect it to be higher. It's nowhere near as high

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Speaker 1: as it should have been. You know, by the way,

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Speaker 1: in the first quarter this year, we had negative GDP,

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Speaker 1: So like, you know, stop cherry picking this information and

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Speaker 1: putting it out of context, because we're not stupid, even

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Speaker 1: though you seem to think that we are. Well and

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Speaker 1: to that point, so how do we you know, obviously

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Speaker 1: I trust you, which is you know why you're or

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Speaker 1: you're on the show, and we try to get to

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Speaker 1: the truth on this show. That's the whole point of it,

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Speaker 1: Like who can we trust and who are the experts?

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Speaker 1: Because well we you know, I made a mask or

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Speaker 1: joke about masks. You know, masks don't work. But COVID

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Speaker 1: was eye opening because we realized that the experts, the

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Speaker 1: quote unquote experts are actually idiots. They lack any common

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Speaker 1: sense whatsoever, and they lie to us. So you know,

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Speaker 1: you look at the same logic applied to the economic experts.

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Speaker 1: Who do we trust? How do we get to the

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Speaker 1: truth in this environment? Trust nobody, Lisa, trust no, don't

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Speaker 1: even trust me. You know that you can't trust people.

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Speaker 1: You have to look at information. You have to look

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Speaker 1: at principles and so look at a wide variety of information,

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Speaker 1: do your own research and then come to your own conclusions,

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Speaker 1: and you know, keep track of people's track records as well. Uh,

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Speaker 1: the economy is very difficult to predict because there are

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Speaker 1: things that happen along the way that change the course

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Speaker 1: in the trajectory. But generally, look, you know, when you're

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Speaker 1: listening to people and say, you are they repeating talking points?

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Speaker 1: Is this something that makes sense in the context of

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Speaker 1: all the other information that I'm seeing? Does this sit

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Speaker 1: right in my gut? I mean, there there are a

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Speaker 1: bunch of things out there where I'm hearing a stuff

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Speaker 1: and I'm just in my gut, I'm like, you know,

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Speaker 1: that just doesn't sit right with me. You trust, trust yourself,

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Speaker 1: trust your guts over you know, any one specific person.

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Speaker 1: I think that this is the time we have to do, unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: a lot of research UM independently and look at a

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Speaker 1: bunch of different sources, and no, you're never going to

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Speaker 1: have the right answer, but at least you'll have enough

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Speaker 1: context and information to make us somewhat educated and informed

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Speaker 1: set of choices. And I think it's also why you

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Speaker 1: need to as you approach UM, you know, your own

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Speaker 1: personal finance and economic well being, why you have to

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Speaker 1: remain optimistic but also be realistic and you know, set

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Speaker 1: up that preparation because even if the worst case scenario

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Speaker 1: doesn't come true. No one's ever say, well, you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm really bumms that I you know, over prepared or whatnot.

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Speaker 1: That that's never something that that any boy, scout, girl scout,

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Speaker 1: or anybody else would ever say to you. You've touched

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Speaker 1: on it. But how much what we're face seeing is

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Speaker 1: government driven? And well, obviously we saw the experts thinking

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Speaker 1: we could essentially shut down the economy and then just

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Speaker 1: reopen it, or even looking at the baby formula shortage.

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Speaker 1: So I was reading about the WIG program, which kind

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Speaker 1: of helped create this crisis, even dating back to think

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Speaker 1: it was like the eighties or whatever. But basically because

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Speaker 1: of this government program, we've sort of allowed some of

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Speaker 1: these manufacturers to have a monopoly in the market. I

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Speaker 1: think there's really basically four main manufacturers a baby formula

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Speaker 1: in the United States. And so you know, even with that, right, So,

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Speaker 1: how much of our issues or our self inflicted or

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Speaker 1: our government driven, I mean almost all of them? Um,

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Speaker 1: the government all it does is create barriers to opportunities

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Speaker 1: and wealth creation. I mean I can't really think of

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Speaker 1: anything that they've done where it's like, oh yeah, no,

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Speaker 1: that's really helped foster growth and widespread individual wealth opportunities.

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Speaker 1: UM So, I think they bear a lot of the blame,

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Speaker 1: and it's you know, it's a reality that we have

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Speaker 1: to be aware of. Um. As you know, my previous book,

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Speaker 1: The War on Small Business, UM I talked about, you know,

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Speaker 1: sort of that great consolidation and the fact that the

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Speaker 1: government works very closely with the big businesses to put

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Speaker 1: up these barriers and to put up these regulations that

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Speaker 1: do end up in scenarios like if something goes wrong

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Speaker 1: with one of those companies, we have a systemic failure

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Speaker 1: and a baby food shortage. You know that that is insanity,

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Speaker 1: and that is because you know, there isn't the widespread competition,

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Speaker 1: whether it's you know, internal to the US or externally.

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Speaker 1: Um you know, to to avoid that from happening. And

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Speaker 1: you know, in the greater economic front, you know, all

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Speaker 1: of the inflation was entirely driven by policy. You know,

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Speaker 1: people say, well, the Federal Reserve isn't really the government,

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Speaker 1: but really they get their mandate from Congress and they

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Speaker 1: give their profits back to the treasury. That sounds pretty

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Speaker 1: government e to me. So you know, you can keep

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Speaker 1: pretending that they're this independent agency, UM. But you know

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Speaker 1: they're printing of trillions of dollars, the administrations UM printing

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Speaker 1: of trillions of dollars, and especially the American Rescue Plan,

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Speaker 1: which came after the economy was opened back up and

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Speaker 1: the vaccines were rolling out, we were already seeing percolating inflation.

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Speaker 1: The decisions that they've made UM in terms of canceling

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Speaker 1: oil and gas leases, the cozying up to the E

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Speaker 1: s G lobby and having them direct capital away from

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Speaker 1: energy resource. I mean, all of these things are tied together,

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Speaker 1: and all of these are central planning bad decisions, you know,

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Speaker 1: outside the scope of the free market, and in every

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Speaker 1: SCEAREO throughout history during all of time, those decisions don't

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Speaker 1: do as well as your free market, open decisions being

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Speaker 1: made by millions of people over and over again on

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Speaker 1: a daily basis. Quick commercial break more of the economy

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Speaker 1: with Carol Roth. Can we ever have a free market too?

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Speaker 1: When you're a point, you know, essentially everything is manipulated.

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Speaker 1: So there's a spectrum, right, This is the way that

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Speaker 1: I view it. So, so the free market, freedom, choice

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Speaker 1: opportunity of many people that has a lot of transparency happening,

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Speaker 1: versus that central planning, which is a handful of people

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Speaker 1: making decisions on behalf of everyone, which is very opaque.

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Speaker 1: And I just see it as sort of like a

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Speaker 1: pendulum or a movement along the spectrum. You either move

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Speaker 1: closer to that free market scenario, or you move further

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Speaker 1: away from it. And we had a time when we

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Speaker 1: were much closer to that, and we have been, you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of marching steadily in the other directions. Will we

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Speaker 1: ever have at scale a hundred percent everything free market,

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Speaker 1: It's highly highly unlikely and not you know, not at scale.

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Speaker 1: Maybe in like little little areas or nuggets or unclaves,

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Speaker 1: but not at scale. But we can move you much

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Speaker 1: further in that direction. But given the behemoth that the

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Speaker 1: government has become at every level, in particularly the federal government, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's going to take some serious fortitude, you know,

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Speaker 1: whether it's getting a whole bunch of people into Congress,

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Speaker 1: you know, willing to do the things to tear it apart,

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Speaker 1: to tear it down to its foundational studs, whether it's

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Speaker 1: some sort of convention of the States or whatnot. But

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Speaker 1: it's going to take a really concerted effort, um and

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Speaker 1: it's going to take the fortitude of people to give

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Speaker 1: up that little crom and morsel that you're getting and

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Speaker 1: understand that you will do much better in the grand

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Speaker 1: scheme of things by giving that up. I mean, that

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Speaker 1: was the whole thing with you know, these COVID relief

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Speaker 1: dollars that so many of us tried to warrant about. Okay,

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Speaker 1: you got your twelve hundred dollar check, but next year

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Speaker 1: it's going to cost you an extra six thousand dollars

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Speaker 1: to get that twelve check. Don't do it. And people said, no,

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Speaker 1: I want my twelve hundred dollar check. I want my

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Speaker 1: free money from the government. It wasn't free, it was

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Speaker 1: really expensive. Um. So the more people who can learn

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Speaker 1: those lessons and eventually go okay, yeah, I'm willing to

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Speaker 1: make that, you know, kind of short term benefit trade

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Speaker 1: off for the long term wealth creation and freedom opportunities

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Speaker 1: for ourselves. You know, if we can get more people

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Speaker 1: on board with that, we will be in a much

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Speaker 1: better position. So basically, it's going to take some people

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Speaker 1: with some big cahunas. That's another way to say it. Yes,

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Speaker 1: wait to wait to get right to the points on

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Speaker 1: that one. Sorry I had asked you earlier. You know

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Speaker 1: how much of this is government driven, but how much

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Speaker 1: of it is Biden driven? Um? So I like to

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Speaker 1: be fair about this. I mean, the reality is that

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Speaker 1: I hate the Yeah, yes, I mean there's not lots

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Speaker 1: Like I'm not even sure that he's in charger he

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Speaker 1: knows what's going on. You know, this was set in

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Speaker 1: motion before he came on board. The stupid decisions that

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Speaker 1: the fifteen days to slow the spread was, you know,

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Speaker 1: an architecture of the Trump administration, and then it went

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Speaker 1: down to the States, and the States took it and

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Speaker 1: abused it and made it a whole big thing. The

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve started intervening in the market in March of two,

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Speaker 1: you know, on an emergency basis, support them by June

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Speaker 1: of the NASDAC June five, in an intra day, all

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Speaker 1: time high, all time high. We don't need emergency port

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Speaker 1: or support when you have one of the industries hitting

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Speaker 1: an all time high. They could have just stopped it then.

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Speaker 1: But again, you know, the former administration like the booming

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Speaker 1: stock market, so certainly you know they weren't going to go, hey, guys,

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Speaker 1: maybe you should pull back. So all of this was

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Speaker 1: set in motion, and it would have been bad However,

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Speaker 1: when Biden got in it put in place, he exacerbated

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Speaker 1: all of those things. So you know, as I said that,

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Speaker 1: you know, the cancelation of the oil and gas leasas

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Speaker 1: the changing of the energy Polly policy and embracing um,

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Speaker 1: you know, this kind of e s g uh fringe

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Speaker 1: group that's now become quite mainstream in terms of the

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Speaker 1: direction of of what they're doing for capital allocation, the

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Speaker 1: American Rescue Plan, you know, throwing one point nine trillion

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Speaker 1: dollars onto this kindling fire. They took something that wasn't

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Speaker 1: going to be great and just fully exacerbated it. He

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Speaker 1: you know, he reappointed Powell, he brought back Janet Yellen,

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Speaker 1: who has Secretary of the Treasury who's been wrong about everything.

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Speaker 1: So um, you know, he what he should be doing, frankly,

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Speaker 1: is spending more time going yeah, I know it's tough,

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Speaker 1: but you know I inherited all of these things instead

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Speaker 1: of trying to sell how wonderful it is, because he

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Speaker 1: doesn't want to have to admit to you know, his

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Speaker 1: peace um of contribution, which was substantial. But there is

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Speaker 1: there's a two part issue. Part of this is systemic

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Speaker 1: and it doesn't matter, you know, who isn't in in

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Speaker 1: the White House or who's in Congress unless something shifts,

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Speaker 1: and then part of it, you know, lay squarely at

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Speaker 1: the feet of this particular administration, who, by the way,

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Speaker 1: have not done one positive thing since they start. There's

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Speaker 1: there's not one thing that I can look at and go,

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Speaker 1: you know, that was a decision that makes people lives better,

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Speaker 1: not one thing since he started. See, I don't think

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Speaker 1: they want to make people's lives better, Like I believe

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Speaker 1: this is with intention. It's by design to push people

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Speaker 1: to the policies that they want. I mean, they're essentially

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Speaker 1: giving people, the American people middle finger when it comes

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Speaker 1: to gas prices because they want everything to shift towards

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Speaker 1: their green climate agenda, right, So like they want people

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Speaker 1: to suffer. I mean, he made those choices regarding fossil fuels,

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Speaker 1: like nuking the Keystone pipeline with intention, and then they

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Speaker 1: laugh at us, like his energy secretary being like, oh,

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Speaker 1: we'll just get an electric card. You wouldn't be strong,

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Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So it's like they don't care,

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Speaker 1: like they want us to hurt. And like I was

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Speaker 1: even reading about, you know, with the war on fossil fuels.

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Speaker 1: I mean obviously having an impact on gas prices and

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Speaker 1: energy and all that, but even like chemical fertilizers increasing

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Speaker 1: the cost of food because chemical fertilizers are made largely

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Speaker 1: from natural gas, and so like the suffering is by design.

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Speaker 1: Have I opinion, Yeah, that's a huge point, because it's

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Speaker 1: not just the cost of those fertilizers, it's the fact

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Speaker 1: that we don't have enough of them at any cost.

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Speaker 1: And it's not just here in the US, but it's

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Speaker 1: a global issue. And some of the decisions that they

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Speaker 1: have made are going to lead if a few things

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Speaker 1: don't fall into place here over the next couple of weeks,

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Speaker 1: going to lead to mass starvation of potentially hundreds of

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Speaker 1: millions of people around the globe, and that is going

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Speaker 1: to lead to social unrest, which potentially could lead to

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Speaker 1: large scale war, like much larger than just Russia Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: And again, these are all decisions that could be even

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Speaker 1: if he went in in one direction, like he could stop,

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Speaker 1: he could right now change things, and it wouldn't solve

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Speaker 1: all of the issues, but at least it would kind

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Speaker 1: of move things in the right direction. And they fundamentally,

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Speaker 1: like you said, don't care and you can't tell me

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Speaker 1: any differently, because if I was looking at all the

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Speaker 1: things that you potentially could do, and many people have

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Speaker 1: brought them up, they are unwilling to do any of

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Speaker 1: those and completely screwt the issues with stupid pr stunts,

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Speaker 1: you know, laying the blame somewhere else, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: or are just like trying to go local squirrel over

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Speaker 1: here and deflect. But these are real issues. See. I

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Speaker 1: feel like I need to give like affirmations throughout these

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Speaker 1: episodes because it's like everything so like you know, like

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Speaker 1: like from the Help, like you are kind, you are pretty,

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Speaker 1: you're important or whatever. It is, Like it's gonna be okay, guys,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna get through this together, you know. Well here,

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Speaker 1: so let's let's talk about the optimistic stuff, because the

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Speaker 1: optimistic stuff, you know, at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: you know, what makes America great is not the government.

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Speaker 1: It's the people. And you know, the foundational principles and

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Speaker 1: you know the companies and industry and you know all

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Speaker 1: of those kinds of things. And even though we have

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Speaker 1: things that are moving in a bad direction, we still

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Speaker 1: have a lot of that. Right. We have a lot

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Speaker 1: of fantastic people. We have a lot of people willing

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Speaker 1: to stand up for freedoms. We have a lot of

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Speaker 1: great company companies, We have a lot of great innovation. Um. So,

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Speaker 1: as I said, like, you know, this isn't the most

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Speaker 1: like completely uplifting thing, but we are the skinniest kid

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Speaker 1: at fat Camp. Like there is no other place around

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Speaker 1: the world where you're like, oh well, we really better

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Speaker 1: watch out because that country, you know, they're really focused

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Speaker 1: on individual rights and capitalism, and they're going to come

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Speaker 1: and they're going to eat our lunch because you know,

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Speaker 1: they're doing the things that we did a couple of

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Speaker 1: hundred years ago. Um. You know, there there's there is

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Speaker 1: There is no one else, Tina, There is no alternative.

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Speaker 1: So you know, that's the one thing that we have

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Speaker 1: going for us, you know, in addition to just the

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Speaker 1: solid foundation of what is America. But we the government

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Speaker 1: is doing everything they can to mess this thing up. Um,

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Speaker 1: and we we really really do need to start taking

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Speaker 1: some serious actions. Quick break more about what you need

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Speaker 1: to know about the current economy with Carol Ross. But

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Speaker 1: you talk about being the skinnies at fat Camp, but

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Speaker 1: they're even attacking that is they're telling us that Lizzo

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Speaker 1: is the epitome of health, So we can't even have that.

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Speaker 1: I guess up and down down is up loved his rights?

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Speaker 1: I mean it's um, you know it is. You joke

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Speaker 1: about four analogies and people keep going, oh, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's so lazy, but it isn't. It's like literally makes

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Speaker 1: you feel on many days like you're living in a

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Speaker 1: dystopian novel. And it has gotten to the point where

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Speaker 1: it's somewhat indistinguishable between parody and reality. Like I will

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Speaker 1: often read a headline and go, is this a serious thing?

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Speaker 1: Is this the Babylon be like is this somebody? Like?

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Speaker 1: I can't I fundamentally, and I'm you know, I'm pretty insightful,

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Speaker 1: Like I fundamentally can't tell any more Lisa and it.

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Speaker 1: You know, we do need to keep our our sense

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Speaker 1: of humor about that. I think, well, you really do.

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Speaker 1: I wish I was trying to pull it up on Twitter,

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Speaker 1: but I can't pull it up fast enough. There's like

426
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 1: something with Lena Dunham recently and a bathing suit and

427
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,159
Speaker 1: they're like, oh, she's so hot, like the media, and

428
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 1: I'm like, no, that's not true. Don't we have eyes? People?

429
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 1: You know, it's so frustrating. It's like a normal person too,

430
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 1: because like unlike you who's like, you know, like super

431
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,679
Speaker 1: thin and gorgeous or whatever, Like I'm just like normal,

432
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:18,479
Speaker 1: So I kind of feel like you have to be

433
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,719
Speaker 1: on one end of the spectrum. Like if you're like

434
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:26,120
Speaker 1: super huge and like you know, just ridiculous, they're like, oh,

435
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 1: she's so beautiful and brave and stunning whatever. And then obviously,

436
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 1: you know, if you're sinning beautiful, you're sending pautful. But

437
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 1: like if you're starting is like, you know, an extra

438
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 1: ten pounds, like forget about it. Like everyone in the

439
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 1: middle like just it's it's like a barbelt. Like everything else.

440
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:41,880
Speaker 1: They're wiping out the people in the middle. They don't

441
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 1: care about the middle class. They don't care about the

442
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 1: middle weight. Anyone who's in the middle is just you know, completely.

443
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 1: I try to go the gym like every day, though,

444
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 1: so it's probably not like the easiest one the best

445
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 1: way to fast. I do too, but you're you're younger

446
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 1: than me. Once you hit a certain age, it doesn't

447
00:25:57,800 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 1: matter how many Like I've I've worked out probably five

448
00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 1: to six times a week, but I also like food,

449
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,479
Speaker 1: so that's I'm not feeling that I'm thirty seven, all

450
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:07,399
Speaker 1: like two glasses of wine, I'm hung over the next day,

451
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 1: so my body's but I want you back to the

452
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 1: But you'd previously uh, you know, talked about E s G.

453
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 1: Talk a little bit about that for the audience. The

454
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 1: Environmental Social and governance, you know what that is, Why

455
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 1: it's impacting companies across the country, and just a overall culture.

456
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 1: So just to touch on that a little bit, if

457
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 1: you don't mind. S G is wild because it is

458
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: something that has created such dislocation and capital markets, yet

459
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 1: so few people, I mean even people at like high

460
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,879
Speaker 1: levels of finance, I haven't even heard of it. I

461
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 1: gotta I gotta teach ben Stein, the amazing ben Stein, Bueller, Bueler,

462
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 1: voodoo economics, all of that. What it is um And

463
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 1: basically part of the reason I think people don't know

464
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 1: what it is is because it's intentionally opaque and difficult

465
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 1: to define. So there are these quote unquote standards environmental

466
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 1: social and governance created by lord knows who, you know,

467
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 1: the the important elite people, and this is just basically

468
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 1: a centrally planned set of objectives. There people in the

469
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 1: World Economic Forum, there are you know, leaders of the

470
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 1: Green New Deal, all those kinds of people who come

471
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 1: together and say, these are the agendas we want to push,

472
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 1: and we need to put a wrapper around them to

473
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 1: to make it palatable and to get people to comply.

474
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,679
Speaker 1: So we're gonna make this something that companies need to

475
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 1: comply with. And so then you get a class of people,

476
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 1: you know that the sort of Peter Thiel calls them

477
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 1: the rackets. Here's the consultants, the accountants, the lawyers, who

478
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,360
Speaker 1: all go, oh, there's a way to make a fee here.

479
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 1: Same thing with people on Wall Street. Oh well, my

480
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 1: E t F doesn't charge up any that much in

481
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: terms of fees, but if I make a special E

482
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 1: S G t F, you know, maybe then I can

483
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 1: charge more. And so they start ramming this down the

484
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 1: throat of corporations. And if you're a corporation, you just

485
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 1: want to mitigate risk. You don't want to not have

486
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 1: access to capital, you don't want to know cause major disturbances.

487
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:20,360
Speaker 1: You're just like, Okay, that's fine, pay the consultants. And

488
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 1: that's how it sort of gets entrenched. And you know,

489
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 1: there's two pieces of this which are somewhat in conflict.

490
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 1: There's a piece, that's just an entire scam about it.

491
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 1: The former CIO of the kind of sustainable investing at

492
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 1: black Rock quit over this and basically said it does

493
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 1: nothing for the environment. You know, it's it's a complete scam.

494
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 1: It's a way to make fees. But at the same time,

495
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 1: despite that, uh, you do have all of these people

496
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 1: pushing it, and it has impacted the way that lenders

497
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 1: and investors invest because if a company is targeted because

498
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 1: it doesn't have a good E. S G score, you know,

499
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 1: kind of social credit if you will, for companies, um,

500
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: they can't raise capital. And that's what we're seeing happen

501
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 1: with a lot of these energy companies though, well you're

502
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 1: not you know, green enough, and you're not doing the

503
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 1: things that we told you you need to do, and

504
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 1: so you know, we're not allowed to make investments in

505
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 1: your company. And if you don't have the investment capital,

506
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 1: then the companies don't make the investments. You know, oil gas,

507
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff doesn't just like fall from

508
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 1: the sky. The process that's involved there and there's a

509
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:40,239
Speaker 1: long lead time, and so that's part of the problem

510
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 1: why we're having the supply issues. UM. You here in

511
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: the US you know, in addition to the cancelation of

512
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 1: some of the oil and gas. So this E s

513
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 1: G movement is you know, both nefarious from a hey

514
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 1: it's a grift, but also from you know, kind of

515
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 1: these people with bad intentions who are pushing it to

516
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 1: try to cram different agendas down corporations throats because they

517
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 1: know that companies won't comply with their idiocy. You know

518
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 1: that they're trying to do what's best for the shareholders

519
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 1: based on market dynamics UM, and this is a way

520
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 1: for central planners, you know, by holding capital allocation and

521
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,960
Speaker 1: other ratings hostage, UM can try to to manipulate companies

522
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 1: and then you know, that comes back to you because

523
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 1: it means that you're not getting the same level of innovation.

524
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 1: It means companies aren't doing things based on the benefits

525
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 1: to their customers and shareholders. And if you're invested in

526
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 1: these companies, it means that that somebody's messing with the

527
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 1: internal capital allocation decisions and you're not going to get

528
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,880
Speaker 1: the best returns. So, you know, those are some of

529
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 1: the high level things to keep in mind. Can we

530
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 1: put the genie back in the bottle when it comes

531
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: to central planning. I mean, even looking at COVID and

532
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 1: in the premise of your your book and the fact

533
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 1: that you know, small businesses got crushed the big gut bigger.

534
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 1: Can we put the genie back in the bottle? At

535
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 1: this point I think we can. I mean COVID stopped

536
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 1: because we said no, right Like eventually we're like, I'm

537
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 1: not wearing a mask on an airplane. This is stupid.

538
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 1: You got a judge to go, yep, that's kind of stupid,

539
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 1: and it stopped. If that didn't happen, we would all

540
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 1: still be wearing masks on a plane. We just need

541
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:23,719
Speaker 1: to continue to stand up and go no, yep, this

542
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 1: isn't We're not doing this. This is not happening. Um.

543
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 1: And you know, especially you know with these of these corporations,

544
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 1: there's a unique opportunity that we have in the economic

545
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: environment that we're in and that we are going to

546
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 1: endure for probably the next fault to eighteen months. UM.

547
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 1: Companies who were kind of woke or off doing s

548
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 1: G things or whatever it was, you had the luxury

549
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 1: of doing that because they had all kinds of access

550
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 1: to capital. Things were going well. Uh, we were in

551
00:31:56,280 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 1: a bull market. Now they don't have that luxury anymore,

552
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 1: and so they're going to be very focused on making

553
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 1: money and not making a ruckus. So if there was

554
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 1: ever a time to influence, it is now. And how

555
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 1: much of an impact you know, You've seen Elon Musk

556
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 1: recently step up. I don't know if he's actually gonna

557
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 1: buy Twitter or not, but at least say he's going

558
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 1: to you know, embark on some sort of you know deal,

559
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,719
Speaker 1: which they're obviously both both sides are trying to get

560
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 1: the best deal possible or get out. I don't know,

561
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 1: but you know, but we then we also saw governor

562
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 1: to Santa stand up to Disney as well. How much

563
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 1: is there a new trend on the horizon of you know,

564
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 1: people stepping up and pushing back against these comp s,

565
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 1: G companies going woke all of that. So, first of all,

566
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 1: I'm gonna fall back on something I told you, you know,

567
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 1: not not that long ago in our discussion is trust

568
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 1: nobody focused on the principles of what people are doing,

569
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 1: but not on the people because they're going to ultimately

570
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 1: do things to disappoint you. I don't think that either

571
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 1: of those people are our saviors, but I do appreciate

572
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 1: when people are stepping up in context, UM, I think

573
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 1: there is an opportunity to have this kind of pushback

574
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 1: if it's done appropriately. Um. There are people obviously on

575
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 1: the very progressive left that are super great at organizing

576
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 1: and have influenced the companies to do these kinds of things.

577
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 1: I do think that they're they're the pendulum can swing

578
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:28,880
Speaker 1: the other way, but it is going to take action. UM.

579
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 1: So the runway is there, the opportunity is there, but

580
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 1: we need more people to step up and seize that opportunity.

581
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 1: And you can't just rely on Elon Musk around the santis,

582
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 1: you know, and what do you think is coming? I mean,

583
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 1: we've got you know, Elon Musk reportedly plans to cut

584
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 1: ten percent of tesla salary salaried workforce. He said he

585
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: had a super bad feeling allegedly in an email to executives,

586
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,719
Speaker 1: you've got GP Morgan's Jamie Diamond saying there's a hurricane coming.

587
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: You know what is coming and how do people prepare for?

588
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 1: So again, as I said, you know, it's it's very

589
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 1: difficult to fully predict these things because some of it

590
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:09,800
Speaker 1: is predicated on actions that haven't happened yet. And you know,

591
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 1: a whole series of different actions can set off a

592
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 1: different chain of events. So let's assume that we don't

593
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 1: end up in World War three, you know, because of

594
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,879
Speaker 1: the mass starvation that leads to social unwrestle. Let's leave

595
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 1: that case as a you know, an outlier blacks well,

596
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 1: well not black songs, as I can see it, just

597
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 1: an outlier situation. If things just kind of keep going

598
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 1: the way they're going. We have two issues which are

599
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 1: in conflict with each other. As I said, you have

600
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 1: a push for the consumer to keep us from a recession.

601
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 1: We have you know, if the consumer is strong and

602
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 1: they go out and they continue to spend, and they

603
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 1: continue to deplete their savings and go into debt, and

604
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 1: then we're going to save the economy from the recession.

605
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 1: So that's one side. On the other that do you

606
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 1: have the federal reserve that is trying to fight inflation

607
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 1: and how do they try to fight inflation by raising

608
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 1: interest rates and creating tighter credit conditions to cool demand?

609
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 1: And cool demand is a fancy way of saying, hey,

610
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:21,359
Speaker 1: the consumer can't spend as much because if they do,

611
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 1: then it will continue to stoke inflation. So do you

612
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 1: see The problem there is that you've got on one

613
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 1: side they're trying to cool the consumer demand, and on

614
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 1: the other side they're trying to stayble. The consumer has

615
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:37,759
Speaker 1: to spend otherwise we end up in a recession. So

616
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 1: that's not that's like like circular logic, right, that's like

617
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 1: you get you try that on your excelf breadsheet, you

618
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 1: get a big circular reference. This does not compute. So

619
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 1: that means that we have probably one or two scenarios

620
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 1: ahead of us. We it could be a recession. We

621
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 1: could actually you know, recessions are always backwards looking. We

622
00:35:57,800 --> 00:35:59,839
Speaker 1: had a negative quarter of GDP in the first quarter,

623
00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 1: we could be in one now or by the end

624
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 1: of the year. We could end up in one or

625
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 1: sometime next year. So so we could have a recession

626
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 1: this sort of retraction of the economy, or we could

627
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 1: end up with a prolonged period of stag inflation where

628
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:18,760
Speaker 1: we do see kind of like a little bit of growth,

629
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 1: but we just can't get inflation under control. I don't

630
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 1: think inflation goes substantially higher than it is now on

631
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 1: a percentage growth basis. But remember everything is cumulative. So

632
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 1: even if you know we end up with four or

633
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 1: five or six percent inflation for the next couple of years,

634
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:46,360
Speaker 1: Like that's not good. That's probably going to outcase wage growth,

635
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 1: and that means people are going to be losing money

636
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 1: on top of the money that they've already lost from

637
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 1: the inflation that's already here. So it is going to

638
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 1: be a challenging situation. Um, I think we're going to

639
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 1: see a lot of halves and have not And unfortunately,

640
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:04,799
Speaker 1: I think the halves, as we've been kind of alluding to,

641
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 1: are those those bigger entities, you know, the people who

642
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: are already wealthy, the big corporations that have really strong

643
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 1: balance sheets that can wait this out. You know, if

644
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 1: you are a small business or you're somebody who is

645
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 1: you know, scraping nd doesn't have that financial wherewithal, it's

646
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 1: going to be a very difficult position. And so I

647
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 1: think we're going to have just this further polarization, and

648
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:31,839
Speaker 1: they're gonna mix it because they're just gonna go look

649
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 1: at the average. We're gonna throw this all in the

650
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 1: pot and look at the average instead of going you know,

651
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:40,800
Speaker 1: we have a big portion of people and of businesses

652
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 1: who are struggling based on our stupid decisions and you

653
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 1: know this is a bad, bad scenario. So you know,

654
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:52,319
Speaker 1: I think those are probably the two places. But this

655
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 1: whole idea that we're going to have the economy come

656
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 1: in with a soft landing, that they're gonna thread the

657
00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:59,799
Speaker 1: needle just perfectly, and all of a sudden, you know,

658
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 1: by the end of the year everything is going to

659
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 1: be fantastic. Um, there are a lot of weird things

660
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:09,520
Speaker 1: that all have to line up for that, too beat

661
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 1: to happen. It's certainly not impossible. But like if I

662
00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 1: was a betting person and going to Vegas, like I

663
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 1: wouldn't pick that horse. But like if you're listening and

664
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:20,319
Speaker 1: you're saying to yourself, I want to be a have

665
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 1: not have not? Are there safe steps? Like what can

666
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 1: people do at home to prepare or just to be

667
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 1: on the safe start? What are just the safe smart moves?

668
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 1: So there are a couple of things there. There's and

669
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 1: again it depends on your current financial situation. If you're

670
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 1: somebody who's you know, living kind of paycheck to paycheck

671
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 1: or doesn't have a lot in savings, you want to

672
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 1: make sure that you're calling back your expenses, you're paying

673
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 1: down any sort of debt that is variable. Um. If

674
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 1: you have something that you locked in, you know, like

675
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:54,240
Speaker 1: a mortgage at a fixed rate that's low, that's great,

676
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 1: keep that. But these variable rates things credit cards or

677
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 1: anything that has an adjustable rate that's going to continue

678
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 1: to go up with rises and interest rates. You want

679
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 1: to pay that down because it's just gonna cost you

680
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 1: more and more and it's going to eat away more

681
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 1: of your spending power. If you're gonna really want to

682
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 1: look at your expenses. And I know it's it's not pleasant,

683
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 1: but personal austerity is a really good plan right now

684
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:24,280
Speaker 1: to just kind of call back, um and to see

685
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 1: what it is you can get rid of. I know

686
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 1: it's a terrible time everyone's itching to do more things,

687
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 1: um after you know, having everything disrupted for the last

688
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:36,879
Speaker 1: couple of years, But you would be wise to wait

689
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 1: that out if you can. If you can prepay for things, um,

690
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 1: you know, stock up on things like you know, meets,

691
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:48,239
Speaker 1: if you have a freezer and and freeze them to

692
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:51,800
Speaker 1: lock in pricing today. UM. You know, those are the

693
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 1: kinds of things that you want to do now. If

694
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:57,319
Speaker 1: you are somebody who fortunate is fortunate to be able

695
00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 1: to make investments, there are a couple of things that

696
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 1: you can look at. UM. Someone is something called an

697
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 1: I bond. It is a Treasury savings bond. You have

698
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 1: to go to the Treasury website I think it's called

699
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 1: Treasury direct dot gov or the I r S has

700
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 1: a program as well, and you can get an I bond,

701
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 1: which is basically a savings bond that changes interest based

702
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:27,360
Speaker 1: on inflation and they change it up every six months,

703
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 1: but again it is tied to you know, changes in inflation.

704
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:34,240
Speaker 1: Right now, the rate is something like nine point six

705
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 1: two or nine point six three per cent. That's locked

706
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 1: in for at least six months. And so if you

707
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 1: can put some money away I think the max is

708
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:46,839
Speaker 1: ten thousand dollars per Social Security number in your household, UM,

709
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 1: and you can hold it for at least a few

710
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 1: years because that's when sort of all the penalties go away.

711
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 1: That's a good way to to UM protect some of

712
00:40:57,080 --> 00:41:00,440
Speaker 1: what you have from inflation. And then you know, just

713
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 1: in terms of you know, investments, you know the market

714
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:05,719
Speaker 1: is going to have a wild ride here. But if

715
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 1: you go back to old school valuation and looking at

716
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 1: the companies with strong balance sheets and you know, big

717
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 1: moats in their business, UM you know, the ability to survive,

718
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 1: the ability to pass on price increases. You know, those

719
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:21,840
Speaker 1: are the kinds of companies that you know are worth

720
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 1: investing in over long periods of time. Well, you know,

721
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:27,239
Speaker 1: and I know there's a lot of people like I,

722
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 1: you know, my lease is up in December, and I'm

723
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 1: like should I buy? You know, like everything is so

724
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 1: freaking expensive, like home prices and stuff. You know, I

725
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:36,800
Speaker 1: think a lot of people are wondering, is there a correction,

726
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:41,680
Speaker 1: commenting like what's you know, what's so economy? Like the

727
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 1: housing markets? Like everything we have right now is so

728
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 1: messed up. It's so it's like this is the most

729
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 1: complicated I've ever seen anything in my entire career. Um

730
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 1: So here the sort of the issues on the housing market.

731
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 1: So the issue is obviously you have rates going up,

732
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 1: which impact mortgage rates, which means those go higher. And

733
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:06,879
Speaker 1: as those go higher, that puts pressure on people who

734
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:09,879
Speaker 1: you take out mortgages to say wow, this is too

735
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 1: expensive and they drop out. So you have that and

736
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 1: that should put some pressure, you know, some cooling pressure

737
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 1: on the market on one hand. On the other hand,

738
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 1: we are underbuilt in this country by between four and

739
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:29,840
Speaker 1: five plus million units. We went through a whole decade

740
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 1: after the Great Recession financial crisis where there was just

741
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:40,320
Speaker 1: substantial under building, so the demand and supply are completely

742
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 1: out of whack. And even with some cooling, you know,

743
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 1: you have a lot of all cash buyers, you're starting

744
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 1: to have more corporate buyers. Um. You know, there are

745
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:53,560
Speaker 1: a lot of forces that you know, when it cools,

746
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 1: it probably at some point bounces back up again. I

747
00:42:57,440 --> 00:43:02,239
Speaker 1: don't think that the resident school real estate market is

748
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 1: in a place like we were in oh seven or

749
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:08,240
Speaker 1: oh eight, where people over levered and you know, there's

750
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:11,320
Speaker 1: a lot of issue with you know, all of a

751
00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 1: sudden all of the supply becoming available because of foreclosures.

752
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 1: Very different in the residents or in the corporate real

753
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 1: estate market. But on the residential side, I think that

754
00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 1: long term, you know, under building issue, um even you're

755
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 1: probably going to get it come down a little bits,

756
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,240
Speaker 1: but then I think it passed back up again because

757
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 1: you just cannot get around the fact that we don't

758
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 1: have enough homes in this country. You know, we look

759
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 1: at that there's still labor shortage and you know, how

760
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:42,839
Speaker 1: much is that is, What's what's the root cause of that?

761
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 1: Oh how much time do you have? Okay, so right

762
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 1: now we have about two jobs open for every job seeker.

763
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 1: There are few things that are all happening that you know,

764
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:59,279
Speaker 1: some some are related and some are unrelated. So first

765
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:05,360
Speaker 1: we have the like dippy pandemic related policy that impacted

766
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 1: the labor market. So you had three million people baby

767
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:15,399
Speaker 1: boomers who retired early, probably because their four o one

768
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,440
Speaker 1: caves were up in their houses. You know, housing prices

769
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 1: were up, and they're just like, i don't need to

770
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 1: deal with us anymore. I'm just gonna piece out and

771
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:26,320
Speaker 1: go enjoy my life. So that pulled three million people

772
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:30,719
Speaker 1: out of the labor force. We had a halt on

773
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 1: legal immigration, people both college educated and uneducated, who typically

774
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 1: come into the workforce. The trajectory that we were on,

775
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 1: if things that just kind of kept pace with the

776
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:48,799
Speaker 1: way that they were before COVID. It's estimated that there

777
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 1: were more than two million legal immigrants who are not

778
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 1: in the workforce to day that should be in About

779
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:59,359
Speaker 1: a million of those are college educated. So that's been

780
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 1: a peace. Then you have a piece where there are

781
00:45:02,200 --> 00:45:06,560
Speaker 1: people who just kind of decided a I'm day trading,

782
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 1: I'm doing a hobby business. You know, I don't know

783
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:11,320
Speaker 1: if they're gonna shut my kids school back down again,

784
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:14,799
Speaker 1: So I can't really re engage in the workforce in

785
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:17,359
Speaker 1: the way that I previously had. So you have all

786
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 1: those things that are pandemic related, and you can add

787
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 1: onto that the skills mismatch that we had before any

788
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 1: of this came about. So even before we had a

789
00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 1: situation where you know, we had a lot of jobs

790
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 1: that we didn't necessarily have the right people for the

791
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:38,319
Speaker 1: for certain jobs. Like we have a serious issue in

792
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 1: terms of the airline industry in this country. Like if

793
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 1: if you are somebody who's looking at a new career,

794
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:46,880
Speaker 1: or you have a kid or a grandkid, who is

795
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:48,960
Speaker 1: you know, thinking about what to do with their life,

796
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 1: Like we need pilots, we need flight attendants like badly,

797
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 1: and it pays really well, um, you know, and those

798
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 1: are things where you can't just go, oh, we have

799
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 1: all these people looking for jobs, like let's make them

800
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:04,359
Speaker 1: a pilot. You know, that just doesn't happen. So there

801
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 1: there's a lot of skills gap issues that's going to

802
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:10,320
Speaker 1: take some time to solve. And I know that you know,

803
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 1: a lot of major airlines are proactively trying to do things,

804
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 1: but that doesn't happen overnight, and then when you get

805
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:19,839
Speaker 1: you know, all this insanity that I just talked about,

806
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 1: you know, it just exacerbates the issue. Um. You know,

807
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:28,120
Speaker 1: now that being said, that could help us in terms

808
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:32,040
Speaker 1: of having a more shallow recession, because usually when you

809
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 1: have a recession, you have all these people who lose jobs,

810
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 1: and it's this this massive issue because they have so

811
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:42,760
Speaker 1: many companies who are looking, they may just stop looking,

812
00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:45,480
Speaker 1: or you know, you may have some that have layoff

813
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:49,440
Speaker 1: for other people who can absorb that. So again, on

814
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:52,719
Speaker 1: an individual basis, it's not a great thing. But on

815
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 1: a macro basis, you know, that's sort of our silver

816
00:46:56,680 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 1: lining other side of what's going on in the labor market, Carol,

817
00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 1: anything else you want to leave us with before we go,

818
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:08,280
Speaker 1: So I know this was a highly depressing discussion. Um.

819
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:12,879
Speaker 1: I think that you know, as Americans, as people who

820
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 1: want to create wealth for ourselves and for future generations,

821
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:21,400
Speaker 1: we have to remain optimistic. I don't know any pessimists

822
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 1: who you are able to do those kinds of things.

823
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:28,399
Speaker 1: So I think it's it's about being realistic and being

824
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 1: prepared and taking action, but also you know, not getting

825
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 1: yourself worked up in such a frenzy to say, you know,

826
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 1: this is the end. We always go through cycles. Um,

827
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:43,479
Speaker 1: we're definitely you know, running out of cycles. But I

828
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:46,239
Speaker 1: don't believe you know, borrowing again as I said, you know,

829
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:50,479
Speaker 1: some kind of crazy World War three scenario that this

830
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 1: is the end of the road. But we're getting pretty close,

831
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:56,399
Speaker 1: so we need we need to take action. But keep

832
00:47:56,440 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 1: that optimism that you know your actions can impact what's

833
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 1: going on on both sort of a general level as

834
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:07,440
Speaker 1: well as a personal level, and take those steps, you

835
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 1: know to build your personal wealth and your personal economic

836
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:15,200
Speaker 1: freedom and support the people around you. Carol, always informative

837
00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:18,080
Speaker 1: and funny. I appreciate you joined the show. Thank you,

838
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:20,799
Speaker 1: and I will look forward to your hashtag on what

839
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 1: occasion next? Insightly yes, and everyone followed Carol on Twitter Carol,

840
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 1: what's your I'm looking it up right now, what's your

841
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 1: It's at Carol j f Yes for both smart advice

842
00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 1: like what we just discussed, and also for the fashions.

843
00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 1: Take care, Carol, thanks so much. I appreciate it. Thank you,

844
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 1: thanks so much for listening. I hope you learned a

845
00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:56,160
Speaker 1: lot from that. I know thanks. Could be a little

846
00:48:56,160 --> 00:48:58,440
Speaker 1: bit depressed in right now, but where the United States

847
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 1: of America. We will get through this together. You gotta

848
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 1: stay in the forum, we gotta stay on top of things,

849
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 1: and I'm going to continue to bring you the Truth

850
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:09,320
Speaker 1: on the Truth with Lisa Booth. Listen to us every Monday,

851
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:12,799
Speaker 1: every Thursday, every single week. Interesting guests like Carol and

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Speaker 1: many others, just trying to get to the truth of

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Speaker 1: what you need to know and what's actually going on

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Speaker 1: right now in the country. If you can go to Apple,

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Speaker 1: leave us five stars, leave us a review, share the

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Speaker 1: podcast with your friends and family if you don't mind.

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Speaker 1: And I also wanted to thank my producer, John Cassio

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Speaker 1: for always working hard to bring this show to you,

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Speaker 1: so thanks so much, guys,