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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go, throwing in job.

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Speaker 2: I'm saying it to cash.

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Speaker 1: See most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 1: to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, It's just the ultimate kabine you want to pack.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented

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Speaker 1: by Fandel. I'm your host Chris Raybond, and this is

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Speaker 1: your NFL Week fifteen betting preview where we will talk

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Speaker 1: about our favorite totals, teasers, moneyline dogs, and of course

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Speaker 1: crack open our weekly Sunday six pack which includes Saturday

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Speaker 1: this week of against the spread bets with the help

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Speaker 1: of my co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation,

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Speaker 1: Stucky Stuck. What's going on?

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Speaker 2: Let's go on, brother, good week bounce back from my

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Speaker 2: second losing week of the year. Went five and two

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Speaker 2: on the week, and more importantly, the podcast Crushed could

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Speaker 2: have had it eight no sides and totals if the

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Speaker 2: Giants actually got off the bus. There was a killer

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Speaker 2: play in that game, and obviously they didn't deserve to cover,

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Speaker 2: but it was like fourth and seven. It like sums

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Speaker 2: up the new NFL and Hurts just throws it up

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Speaker 2: to DeVante Smith. Oh yeah, there's like a safety coming over.

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Speaker 2: I think it was Julian Love who easily I could

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Speaker 2: have picked it. But if that happens, because it was

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Speaker 2: just floated, and credit to Hurts, you just have to

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Speaker 2: throw you have to throw that up fourth and seven.

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Speaker 2: Love like misplays the ball and score a touchdown on

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Speaker 2: fourth and seven, and you know you don't want the

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Speaker 2: Giants playing from behind. But if that play happens twenty

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Speaker 2: years ago, DeVante Smith isn't a stretcher getting carted off

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Speaker 2: of the field because I mean it was just floated

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Speaker 2: and the safety is coming over and he's like, well,

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Speaker 2: I don't want to hit him, and then he just

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Speaker 2: misplayed the ball. But yeah, I mean if that was

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Speaker 2: back in the day, man, he would have been just destroyed.

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Speaker 2: But credit to the Eagles for getting that done. And yeah,

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Speaker 2: great week for the pod. But like I say, every week,

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Speaker 2: regardless of results, who gives a shit on the next week.

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Speaker 2: Let's get into Week fifteen, got Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and

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Speaker 2: Monday football, speaking of.

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Speaker 1: A lot of football, actually went to two games last week,

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Speaker 1: first time I think in my life. I went to

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Speaker 1: two games. So I saw the Baker Mayfield come Back

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Speaker 1: live on Thursday and then I saw the I saw

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Speaker 1: you cover with the Chargers against the Dolphins on Sunday night,

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Speaker 1: so so that was fun.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to my first NFL game this season, Like,

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Speaker 2: whoever you ever got up to Cleveland? No college football,

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Speaker 2: this a couple of bowl games, but able to travel

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Speaker 2: off to Cleveland to go to Browns Ravens, which I

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Speaker 2: am so happy. You don't You don't even know how

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Speaker 2: closely I was following NFL reporter updates on the schedule.

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Speaker 2: They pushed it back to the last possible day to

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Speaker 2: determine which game are going to get moved to Saturday.

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Speaker 2: So they're suppsed announced on Friday and they're like, now

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Speaker 2: we're going to wait till Monday. And I was like, man,

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Speaker 2: it's got to be Ravens Browns and I would think

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Speaker 2: that the Bills. So I think what they did is

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Speaker 2: what I thought it was going to be. But I'm

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Speaker 2: so happy because usually i'll go it's if it's on

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Speaker 2: a Sunday. I'm worried about all the other games and

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Speaker 2: then I'm in, I'll go to the you know, the

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Speaker 2: sweet level bar, and I'm just at an NFL game,

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Speaker 2: watching all the other games like a bit just out

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Speaker 2: of stadium. It's always nice to go to an NFL

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Speaker 2: game when on an island, when there's no other games

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Speaker 2: you have to worry about.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's pretty much the only way I'll go. I

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Speaker 1: can't skip out on that whole Sunday red zone, like,

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Speaker 1: that's not not for me. But we'll get to the

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Speaker 1: Thursday Night football game. We'll crack open the week fifteen

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Speaker 1: to six pack, And just to answer the questions that

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Speaker 1: a lot of listeners, a lot of you have asked, Yes,

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Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast will be delivering its usual schedule

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Speaker 1: of episodes throughout the holiday season. Recap episodes, player projections,

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Speaker 1: best bets, and these weekly betting preview with Stucky and

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Speaker 1: I will be delivered at the same time on time

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Speaker 1: from now all the way through Week eighteen and really

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Speaker 1: the other season for us through the Super Bowl. So

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Speaker 1: don't worry, gamblers, we got you covered. Let's get into

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Speaker 1: Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 2: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 2: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: All right, So we have the forty nine ers going

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Speaker 1: to Seattle to take on the Seahawks San Francisco favored

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Speaker 1: by three at FANDU the official sponsor of the Action

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Speaker 1: Network PID. The total is forty three and a half

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Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker, the third is off. The injury report for

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Speaker 1: Seattle looks like Purdy is good to go for San

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Speaker 1: fran but no debo. I guess is the big who

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Speaker 1: is four the forty nine is?

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Speaker 2: What?

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Speaker 1: Do you think it is wrong?

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Speaker 2: Go to the Action neworkap Reaction network dot com and

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Speaker 2: listen to big bets on campus. I was all afternoon

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Speaker 2: just tracking down bowl opt outs, and it's just a

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Speaker 2: non stop exercise. So credit that anyone who grabbed a

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Speaker 2: three and a half once like Walker was removed. You know,

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Speaker 2: Deebo wasn't going to go. I think that's Seattle pluster

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Speaker 2: and half is the right side. You know, we've been

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Speaker 2: fading Seattle a lot recently, talked about, you know, kind

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Speaker 2: of how their their defense is falling apart, and some

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Speaker 2: other factors of why they were a bit overvalued. I

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Speaker 2: know you had Carolina last week is one of your

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Speaker 2: best bets, but I think that this is probably the

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Speaker 2: bottom of the market. On Seattle, and that that's assuming

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Speaker 2: that Brock party. There is a drop off between Jimmy

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Speaker 2: G and Brock Perty, which I think you still have

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Speaker 2: to assume right now. Like Jimmy G. If you look

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Speaker 2: at his numbers over the past five or six seasons

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Speaker 2: compared to his backups, you know, whenever like CJ. Bethard

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Speaker 2: was in there, Nick mullins, he was significantly better overall.

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Speaker 2: So I'd be We're like, go, it's just a shanna

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Speaker 2: off as you can plug in anybody, but Jimmy, it

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Speaker 2: was always better with Jimmy G. This is still mister

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Speaker 2: irrelevant rookie. He's only had one start. It was in

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Speaker 2: a favorable game state against a Buck secondary that basically

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Speaker 2: all went down with injury or we're out with injury,

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Speaker 2: you know. And he got to face Miami the week before,

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Speaker 2: which we're not I'm not a fan of their secondary

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Speaker 2: as well. So you know, he's been in favorable states

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Speaker 2: at home, so we'll see. You know, it's only been

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Speaker 2: one plus game one start. We've seen this a lot

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Speaker 2: with backup quarterbacks before they look great for a start

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Speaker 2: or two. You know, you kind of get a book

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Speaker 2: on them, and it's you know, this is a short

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Speaker 2: week on the road and one of the best atmospheres

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Speaker 2: in the NFL. This is basically I mean, this is

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Speaker 2: Seattle Super Bowl. They need to win this game. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I still have to assume the party there's a big

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Speaker 2: drop off to Purty, and maybe there won't be. It

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Speaker 2: could end up that he's really good, but you still

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Speaker 2: can't assume that just based on the sample size. The

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Speaker 2: one thing that worries me is just like how many

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Speaker 2: times are the forty nine is going to run the ball?

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Speaker 2: Five teams have run the ball forty plus times against

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Speaker 2: the Seahawks this season with a lot of success. That

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Speaker 2: includes the forty nine ers in the first meeting, which

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Speaker 2: they dominated and Seattle only scored on I think a

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Speaker 2: block punt for a touchdown. The Panthers are the same

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Speaker 2: thing last week, like Rinda forty plus times in Seattle's

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Speaker 2: run defense is just a shell right now. So that

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Speaker 2: would be the one thing that scares me. Missing the

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Speaker 2: three and a half, which is what I would have

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Speaker 2: bet if I could have got three flat three and

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Speaker 2: a half, think I might end up teasing the Seahawks

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Speaker 2: get a little protection, maybe tease them up from three

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Speaker 2: to nine so I like a couple teaser pieces, which

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about in the teaser section, but I do

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Speaker 2: think this is probably the right spot to buy the

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Speaker 2: Seahawks if this gets to you know, three and a

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Speaker 2: half minus one fifteen. Even at three. It's a little

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Speaker 2: dice here, But those are my thoughts.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, initially I looked at this and I said, yeah,

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Speaker 1: Seattle is the right side, especially at more than a

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Speaker 1: field goal. But I think you kind of hit on it.

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Speaker 1: This run defense is a problem. I mean, San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: we know that's what they're gonna do with being the

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Speaker 1: quarterback with with McCaffrey, you know, coming on strong here.

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Speaker 1: Even you know Jordan Mason's playing well, they still have

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Speaker 1: a defense. You know, Carolina with Sam Darno, that's aka,

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Speaker 1: you know, no real threat of the past at all,

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Speaker 1: which is probably you could it's comparable to Perty and

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Speaker 1: Brandon and I you can kittle probably San Francisco probably

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Speaker 1: still more threatening. You know, they ran they wind up

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Speaker 1: and ran it forty six times for two hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty two yards and two touchdowns. And it could have

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Speaker 1: been worse because they threw it four times in a

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Speaker 1: row with the goal line for some strange reason. So

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Speaker 1: I mean, you're you're talking about it. You could have

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Speaker 1: had close to two hundred and thirty yards three touchdowns

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Speaker 1: giving up on the ground for the Seattle defense, and

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Speaker 1: you know they just had it. What did they play

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Speaker 1: seventy two plays four days ago? And then I was

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Speaker 1: kind of thinking about you know, remember when we had

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Speaker 1: that debate about Tampa Bay Seattle on a neutral field

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Speaker 1: and you were right about the Bucks. Well, you know,

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay was favored in that one. I think it

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Speaker 1: was three three and a half and San Francisco was

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Speaker 1: favored by three and a half over the Bucks last

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Speaker 1: week and they blew them out. You know. So it's

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Speaker 1: like now three and a half for the Seahawks ano

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Speaker 1: they're at home, but San Francisco is just rolling. So

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Speaker 1: I had to stay away from me because I don't

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Speaker 1: want to await points with Rock Party, obviously, but I

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Speaker 1: really do worry about this Seattle run defense against this

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Speaker 1: kind of team you know that wants to run, can

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Speaker 1: run and can back it up with defense to where

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Speaker 1: the game is not really going to get away from them.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, it's a stay away from me.

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Speaker 2: Forty nine ers defense by like bawling out about sixty

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Speaker 2: four points over the past six games six straight opponents

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Speaker 2: to seventeen or fewer. The only teams that have done

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Speaker 2: that over the past decade twenty thirteen Chiefs, twenty nineteen Patriots,

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Speaker 2: and twenty seventeen Patriots. That's it. But I mean, the

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Speaker 2: one thing I will say, San Francisco's played a really,

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Speaker 2: really easy schedule overall, So maybe this is like the

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Speaker 2: top the market on them, but you gotta hope. Like

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Speaker 2: in these home hype spots, a lot of times, what

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Speaker 2: you'll see is like the run defense is juiced early

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Speaker 2: and they're at home. I guess the Panthers, though, well, yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's not like this is like the off of the

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Speaker 2: loss the forty nine Ers Thursday night. And I'm not

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Speaker 2: saying it can last through the whole game, but like

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Speaker 2: early on, like you just have guys that are juiced up,

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Speaker 2: adrenaline up. So I think that this game will be

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Speaker 2: decided early on. Seattle has the defense has to come

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Speaker 2: up and play up early on the first couple of drives,

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Speaker 2: and then they got to get a lead because that's

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Speaker 2: and then you know, Purdy could make a mistake or two.

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Speaker 1: The under actually might be a little more interesting, because

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you do think Seattle stays within three points,

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Speaker 1: you like, is Seattle scoring you know, twenty four on

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Speaker 1: this niner defense? Probably not right. So now I'll be

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Speaker 1: talking about, as you mentioned, Perty making some mistakes and

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Speaker 1: allowing Seattle to stay in it. So maybe I probably

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Speaker 1: feel a little better about the Underbok. It's a stay

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Speaker 1: away from me either way.

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Speaker 2: Divisional rematch outdoors, you know, Primetime Thursday Night at all

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Speaker 2: lines up to the unders. If you're gonna fay the total,

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Speaker 2: I would look at the under as well.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's jump into the week fifteen six.

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Speaker 2: Pack Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: All right, as you mentioned, great week for US five

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Speaker 1: and one on the six pack, you know you went,

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Speaker 1: You hit almost every all but one pick. But because

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Speaker 1: I swept. Now it's back to ten point deficit, fifty

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Speaker 1: four to forty four. Sou see if you can make

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Speaker 1: it up where the season ends? Where are you going?

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Speaker 2: First? If only we should have counted that next, we

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Speaker 2: should have counted money line dollars this year.

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Speaker 1: I know, yeah, you got you got eight to fourum

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Speaker 1: me or something like that. Eight to five.

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Speaker 2: All right. For my first pick of the week fifteen

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Speaker 2: Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Jacksonville Jaguars plus

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Speaker 2: four and a half at home against the Dallas Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: For what it's where this is kind of a sidebar,

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Speaker 2: but I do think that the Jaguars are kind of

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Speaker 2: after last week as a team that's I think riding

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Speaker 2: a little high they beat Tennessee. I think this is

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Speaker 2: the division is gonna end up coming down to the

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Speaker 2: finale where if Jacksonville just is one game behind and

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Speaker 2: they win that regular season finale, they'll win the division.

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Speaker 2: Which I'm really home for too, because I bet them

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Speaker 2: theyll win the division. I think I forget the odds

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Speaker 2: I got, but anyway, I like them here at this

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Speaker 2: number plus four and a half. There's just a lot

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Speaker 2: of injury concerns for this Dallas team. You're gonna have

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Speaker 2: you lost Terrence Steele, and you saw what happened to

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Speaker 2: that offense last week against the Texans. They couldn't figure

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Speaker 2: anything out. You know you're gonna get Tyren Smith back. Well,

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Speaker 2: you're moving right tackles and left tackles around going into

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Speaker 2: this week. By the way, the Cowboys also have the

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Speaker 2: Eagles week, so this is like a you know, you

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Speaker 2: escape Houston, now you're going to Jacksonville. A little bit

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Speaker 2: of a flat, trappy look ahead spot here with the

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Speaker 2: Eagles on deck. But I just think that in general,

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Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence overall, if you look at his trending numbers,

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Speaker 2: we talked about inconsistent he's been, but since Week eight

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Speaker 2: or nine, he's been really good overall. And the Dallas

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Speaker 2: secondary has issues due to injuries, blust a couple guys

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Speaker 2: at cornerback, and I was stunned to watch Davis Mills

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Speaker 2: and Jeff Driscoll with Chris Moore as their primary target

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Speaker 2: move the ball on this Cowboys defense. And you know,

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Speaker 2: on the other side of the ball, I mentioned like

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Speaker 2: shuffling offensive line guys around. The passing game just isn't

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Speaker 2: clicking right now. And we know that the Jacksonville run

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Speaker 2: defense is good. That's the strength of their team. So

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure that with these tackles moving around, the

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Speaker 2: Dak's gonna be able to drop back and then just

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Speaker 2: pick apart this Jacksonville secondary. I do think that they'll

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Speaker 2: move the ball some, but I think Jacksonville can keep

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Speaker 2: up here. This is a team that if you just

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Speaker 2: flipped all of the one possession results, so all your

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Speaker 2: one possion losses or wins, all your one possession wins

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Speaker 2: or losses, the Jacksonville Jaguars will be the number one

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Speaker 2: seed in the AFC. This is a team that plays

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Speaker 2: every game close for the most part, outside of the

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Speaker 2: when they face the powerhouse lines when Lawrencecot hurt. But

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Speaker 2: they're you know, their second biggest loss of the year

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Speaker 2: was by ten at Kansas City. They've been in so

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Speaker 2: many close games. I think they'll keep this close. I

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Speaker 2: don't think that all of the injuries on both sides

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Speaker 2: of the ball for Dallas are being properly accounted for.

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Speaker 2: I think that Dallas is most dangerous when that run

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Speaker 2: game is going and just s grinding and grooving. So

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Speaker 2: I don't think that they can necessarily do that consistently

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Speaker 2: against Jacksonville. So yeah, give me the upswing Jags here

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Speaker 2: at home in just a massive game for them. If

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Speaker 2: they win this game and Tennessee goes down at the charters,

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about that in a bit. They're in prime

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Speaker 2: position to win this division. So yeah, give me the

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Speaker 2: Jags here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I make this around three to three and a half.

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Speaker 1: So I'm with you. You know, I guess the only thing,

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Speaker 1: like you said, to worry about is Lawrence is inconsistency.

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Speaker 1: This is a defense that should play well against them

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Speaker 1: because remember defenses that Lawrence has tended to struggle with,

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Speaker 1: and you tend to see the down games. It's kind

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Speaker 1: of inexplicable. Have been these man coverage defenses that blitz

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Speaker 1: a lot. Dalla's not really doing that. Dallas is sitting

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Speaker 1: back in a lot of zones. I think they're top

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Speaker 1: three in in zone coverage rate, and they don't. They

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Speaker 1: bus like a average rate. They don't need to put

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Speaker 1: a ton because they do have that pass rush. But

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Speaker 1: you know, unless they change something up drastically here, this

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Speaker 1: does profile as one of those defenses that Lawrence would

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Speaker 1: play well against. Obviously, they're more talented than the most defenses,

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Speaker 1: but as you said, dealing with some injuries in the secondary,

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Speaker 1: So it should be a good spot for the Jaguar.

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Speaker 1: This is this is an important game for Lawrence just

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Speaker 1: to kind of fully arrive, Like if they could they

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Speaker 1: could pull this one out against one of the top

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Speaker 1: teams in the league. I think people will feel a

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Speaker 1: lot better about his future.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Cowboys also had something. They're dealing with,

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Speaker 2: some nagging injuries up front on their defensive line, you know,

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Speaker 2: and they've lost a couple of corners and you know,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know what they're gonna do on

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Speaker 2: the offensive line, but it's gonna be a reshuffled unit

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Speaker 2: for one week on the road like the for the

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Speaker 2: first week. And you know, you might have Jason Peters

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Speaker 2: at right tackle, Josh Ball, who's horrendous. He might be

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Speaker 2: in there. They were think they were rotating last week.

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Speaker 2: I don't know what they're gonna do. I personally might like, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think he saw some of those injuries show last

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Speaker 2: week against the Texans, and I think the Jaguars can

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Speaker 2: take advantage. And again it's a really bad spot for

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Speaker 2: the cow was like Eagles on deck here going on

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Speaker 2: the road to face the Jags, who have been feisty.

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Speaker 2: I think that they're undervalued. So uh do all let's

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Speaker 2: go for.

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Speaker 1: My first pick in the second overall of the week

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Speaker 1: fifteen six pack. I am going with the New York

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Speaker 1: Giants plus four and a half at FanDuel at the

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Speaker 1: Washington Commanders. And listen, the Commanders are obviously much better

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Speaker 1: with Heinike under as opposed to Wentz. We know that,

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Speaker 1: but you're talking about four and a half points in

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Speaker 1: a divisional matchup lait in the year in a game

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Speaker 1: where they just played two weeks ago and it was

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Speaker 1: a twenty twenty tie. The Giants were leading that game

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Speaker 1: for by seven for pretty much the last twenty minutes

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Speaker 1: until Washington gets a big play, a big pass play

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Speaker 1: to tie the game up, and the Giants then miss

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Speaker 1: a game winning field goal in overtime. So you're telling

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Speaker 1: me that, you know, just coming off the buy is

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Speaker 1: worse and combined with Washington's home field is worse. Four

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Speaker 1: points here not to me. You know, Heinike Okay, he's

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Speaker 1: playing well, but that matchup against Daniel Jones. Daniel Jones

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Speaker 1: only threw six incompletions against Washington. In that game, he

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Speaker 1: outplayed Heinike better passer rating one O four to one

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Speaker 1: O one. He took fewer sacks and sackyardage four four

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Speaker 1: sacks for eighteen. Heineke was sacked five times for twenty

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Speaker 1: nine and Jones added seventy one on the ground. Heinike

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Speaker 1: just six. So you know this Heinike, you up, I

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Speaker 1: think has gotten a little too far. Washington minus four

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Speaker 1: and a half represents their largest spread of the season,

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Speaker 1: So of course I'm gonna fade Washington at their largest

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Speaker 1: spread of the season. When on the other side you

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Speaker 1: have this giant team that you know, I know they

367
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Speaker 1: didn't come through for you last week, but this is

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Speaker 1: still a team that you know, with Brian Dable, they've

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Speaker 1: won more games than they've lost as outright as an

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Speaker 1: underdog this season. And then Daniel Jones.

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Speaker 2: Whats you like ten and zer against the spread on

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Speaker 2: the road as a dog of under like nine Daniel Jones?

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Speaker 1: So I got eleven and one ninety two percent against

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Speaker 1: the spread on the road as an underdog by seven

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Speaker 1: and a half or less, and then overall fourteen and

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Speaker 1: five as a road underdog seventy four percent three to

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Speaker 1: one this season. So you know, this is the kind

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Speaker 1: of spot where it's not going to be pretty. But

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Speaker 1: you know this is not This is not the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: Like Washington's cool, they're improved, they have a good defense,

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Speaker 1: their offenses a little better with Heinike than it is Wentz.

382
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Speaker 1: But this is still a Washington team that's twenty seventh

383
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Speaker 1: in offensive Dvoa.

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Speaker 2: The Giants are fourteenth.

385
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Speaker 1: So but you know, this is kind of this. I

386
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Speaker 1: think this Heinikey thing is like is like getting a

387
00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:35,960
Speaker 1: little too crazy here.

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Speaker 2: The Giants should be healthier.

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Speaker 1: You know. Saquon Barkley played a season low twenty snaps,

390
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,639
Speaker 1: got a season lew eleven touches last week, so he

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Speaker 1: should be ready to go this week. Leonard Williams, you

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Speaker 1: get him back. He's ranked eighth of one hundred and

393
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Speaker 1: twenty five material lineman at PFF. Daniel Bellinger, the tight

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00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,760
Speaker 1: end should be back after he was in and out

395
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Speaker 1: last week. So you know, I think this Giant team

396
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Speaker 1: getting healthier. Tied, this team should have won a couple

397
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Speaker 1: of weeks ago, going on the road where they for

398
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Speaker 1: some reason tend to play better, and you would get

399
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: heinike in this Washington team, and yeah, he's covered a ton,

400
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:15,520
Speaker 1: but two point win against green Bay, one point win

401
00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:19,920
Speaker 1: against Indianapolis, lost to Minnesota. They beat the Texans by thirteen,

402
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,560
Speaker 1: and then they got that big win over the Eagles

403
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 1: by eleven. That was really their only quality win because

404
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:27,800
Speaker 1: they beat Atlanta by six, but they should have lost

405
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Speaker 1: that game. Atlanta had like first and goal to win

406
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 1: the game, and just Marcus Mariota throws a tipball interception.

407
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 1: So you know, this Washington team really, to me is

408
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,280
Speaker 1: not should not be favored by four and a half,

409
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:43,919
Speaker 1: especially against this Giant team that all year had just

410
00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:47,480
Speaker 1: found a way to keep games close. So give me

411
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Speaker 1: the g Men. Oh and let me also mention that

412
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Speaker 1: this is a great spot to buy teams. Indianapolis is

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Speaker 1: another one. But these underdogs coming off blowout losses. When

414
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Speaker 1: you have an underdog coming off a loss of twenty

415
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:06,879
Speaker 1: plus points one oh six sixty nine and three sixty

416
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Speaker 1: one percent against the spread since twenty seventeen eleven four

417
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 1: one seventy three percent this season, so give me the

418
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Speaker 1: g Men plus four and a half at Washington.

419
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would agree here. The one thing that we

420
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,919
Speaker 2: concern me is just like the Washington played the Giants

421
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Speaker 2: sen out a bye and then plays the Giants again,

422
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,080
Speaker 2: and then the Giants played the Eagles in between. So

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Speaker 2: I think that's a pretty big advantage. You have like

424
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Speaker 2: two weeks to prepare for the same exact opponent that

425
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 2: you just played, while the Giants, you know, we're playing

426
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Speaker 2: the Eagles. But I do show value in this number.

427
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 2: The Giants are always feisty in the spot on the road,

428
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 2: the Taylor Honeke, I think he's like the nude Jamis Winston.

429
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,880
Speaker 2: He's kind of like a guy that is gonna make

430
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,920
Speaker 2: some risky throws. He's gonna hit some he's gonna make

431
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,440
Speaker 2: some turnovers. And like we always talked about how Winston

432
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Speaker 2: we love backing as a dog yep, but hate when

433
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Speaker 2: he's a favorite. And I think Nicky still has some

434
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 2: turnover regression coming. So yeah, I think that this one

435
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 2: should be close. These two teams just saw each other.

436
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 2: I think it'll be lower scoring, so the four and

437
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,720
Speaker 2: a half is really valuable. So don't disagree with you,

438
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 2: all right, you going for your second right? For my

439
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 2: second pick of the week, fifteen Sunday six pack, I'm

440
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 2: going with the New York Football Jets plus one at

441
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 2: home against the Detroit Lions at Fandel Look, the Lions

442
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 2: are playing extremely good football. We've been on them for

443
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:41,880
Speaker 2: weeks on this podcast. Weeks. I mean, let's see, yeah,

444
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:43,920
Speaker 2: I mean going all I can't even remember the last something.

445
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 1: Working on the way I know we were on them

446
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 1: is because I took a rare favorite. I took them

447
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 1: as a favorite last week. Like you know, I don't know,

448
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,720
Speaker 1: I probably take like four or five favorites all year

449
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 1: in this podcast. So yeah, we've been we've been.

450
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 2: All over Yeah, money Line against the Giants, we have

451
00:22:57,040 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 2: them against the Bills on Thanksgivars. Yeah, the Packer against

452
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 2: the Packers. Yeah, we've been on them forever. But uh,

453
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 2: this is still this is what does everyone talking about?

454
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 1: Now?

455
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 2: The Roars restored, The Lions are back the Lions. No

456
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 2: one wants to play them when they get in the playoffs.

457
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 2: All might be true, but what are all those signals

458
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 2: of They're probably over sold And I think that's the

459
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,719
Speaker 2: case here since Mike White it looks like he is

460
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 2: going to give it a go and play the Lions

461
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,440
Speaker 2: almost a month ago to the day, a month ago

462
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:34,160
Speaker 2: yesterday were plus three at Chicago, plus three at Chicago.

463
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:38,120
Speaker 2: Now they are favored or plus one at the Jets.

464
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 2: That's that's crazy because what you have to remember is

465
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 2: this is still Jared Goff outdoors not been great historically,

466
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,120
Speaker 2: especially when you can get pressure, which the Jets can do.

467
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 2: And this is still a Lion's defense which is improving

468
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,639
Speaker 2: but is extremely vulnerable. The Jets will be able to

469
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 2: move the ball. I think golf will have some struggles.

470
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:01,879
Speaker 2: You gotta remember in that game against the Bears, by

471
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 2: the way, which has turned their season around, they were

472
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:06,639
Speaker 2: plus three on the road at Chicago, one of the

473
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 2: worst defenses in the NFL, and they got out game

474
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 2: with four hundred and eight to three. Twenty three yards

475
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 2: for play were seven for the Bears, five and a

476
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 2: half for the Lions. Entire game changed on a awful

477
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 2: Justin Field's picked six late because the lines were dead

478
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 2: and buried in that game. People forget now, people forget

479
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 2: that that game happened. And they've been playing well and

480
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 2: they deserve credit for that, and I bumped them a

481
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 2: lot in my Power ratings. But you know, they beat

482
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 2: a fraudulent Vikings team, they beat the Jags in an

483
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 2: awful spot, they beat the Giants who are just fading

484
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 2: into oblivion, and then you know they hung with the Bills.

485
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 2: That's it. I mean. So like a lot of these

486
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 2: games were against bad defenses or indoors, this is a

487
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 2: different situation. December. Jets playing for their playoff hopes as

488
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,360
Speaker 2: well at home. Mike White's going to be in there.

489
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,679
Speaker 2: Offense has been a lot better, and I think this

490
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:04,200
Speaker 2: is just the right time to sell the Lions. So

491
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 2: give me the Jets here at home. Plus one up

492
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 2: to minus one is fine. I think that this should

493
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,360
Speaker 2: be the line if Zach Wilson was playing. I can't

494
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 2: believe I'm saying this, but I am selling high in

495
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 2: the Lions.

496
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's been a good run. Be mentally prepared for

497
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 1: that moment in the game where Mike White gets laid

498
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,439
Speaker 1: out and misses like three plays. Zach Wilson is going

499
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:29,919
Speaker 1: to come in because he's the backup this week. Can

500
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 1: not the Flaco, So you might get some Wilson whether

501
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,479
Speaker 1: you like it or not. But yeah, you know this

502
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 1: Jet team, their defense is a week. This Jets defense

503
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 1: help Buffalo to pretty much nothing for what a quarter

504
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 1: and a half, almost the whole entire first half of

505
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 1: last week, and that was Buffalo and Detroit. They're playing

506
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: really well on offense, but they're still not Buffalo. So yeah,

507
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 1: this Jets defense can hang with anybody. They're at home,

508
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 1: you know, the Lions. The one thing I wish is

509
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 1: we had more of a sample of the Lion's outdoors

510
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 1: with this full complement of weapons, just you know, to

511
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 1: make sure because now they do have James Williams. Now

512
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:13,160
Speaker 1: they do have you know, swift is healthier, so they

513
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 1: are they do have a bunch of guys that they

514
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: really didn't have in a lot of these road games

515
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,640
Speaker 1: because they have played three at home. So their last

516
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 1: road game was November twentieth, It was before Thanksgivings, the

517
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 1: last time they played on the road.

518
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 2: But either way, but if you go back to those

519
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:32,360
Speaker 2: Rams teams golf outdoors, you know, late in the season,

520
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 2: if you look at the difference between you know, the

521
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 2: their output indoors in good weather versus outdoors, it's always

522
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 2: been a thing regardless like they're they're going up against

523
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 2: an elite defense. It is outdoors, like it's going to

524
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 2: slow any team down. And so like I do think

525
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 2: that the Lions will be able to move the ball some.

526
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 2: Their offense is playing too well right now, but I

527
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,959
Speaker 2: also think that the Jet the Jets will be able

528
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 2: to move the ball some on this line's defense, which

529
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 2: is approving, but it's just it's still not a great defense.

530
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 2: So I think that if you look at both sides

531
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 2: of the ball, the Jets defense and the Lions offense

532
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 2: really good matchup. But I think the lines will move

533
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 2: the ball, some Jets are going to contain them. Golf

534
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 2: will have I think some poor throws, but that's a

535
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,120
Speaker 2: really good matchup. You could say, the way the lines

536
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 2: are playing, maybe they're on par. But I think that

537
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 2: the Jets offense with Mike White has a bigger advantage

538
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 2: over the lines defense, which is the clear weakest unit

539
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 2: in this game. So I think that's ultimately going to

540
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 2: be the difference. Jets defense will come up with some stops,

541
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 2: particularly in the red zone, and the Jets will be

542
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 2: able to sustain a few more drives and get this

543
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 2: victory at home and then end this line streak. I

544
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 2: think they covered like six in a row, so usually

545
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 2: when that happens NFL, you're probably near the peak of

546
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:53,399
Speaker 2: your market. I and like, everyone is talking about the Lions.

547
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 2: I mean everyone I talked to once about the line.

548
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:59,919
Speaker 2: So it's not like this line is not attracting Lions money.

549
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 2: People are a lot of people are still betting the line.

550
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 2: So I'm like, all right, I'm not crazy, So yeah,

551
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:05,680
Speaker 2: can be the Jets. All right.

552
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 1: For my second pick in the fourth overall of the week,

553
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 1: fifteen to six pack, I'm gonna go to Atlanta Falcons

554
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 1: plus four and a half at fan duel at the

555
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints, And this is just a bet on

556
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 1: the uncertainty that comes with starting a rookie quarterback in

557
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 1: Desmond Ritter. You know, Marcus Mariota, if you haven't heard,

558
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 1: was benched and then just elected to have some season

559
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 1: ending knee surgery. So it's gonna be Riders squad from

560
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 1: here on. Now we're talking about four and a half

561
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 1: points here, so you know, we're going through the three

562
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 1: and through the four. You know, obviously I still like

563
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 1: it and more than a field goal, but I mean

564
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 1: I love it at this number because pretty much you

565
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 1: have a lot of margin for error with this Falcon team.

566
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 1: Because remember this was already an offense that was twelfth

567
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 1: in Dvoa. This is an offense that was sixteenth in

568
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 1: passing Dvoa even with Mariota, and sixth in Russia. So

569
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 1: this offense is better than the Saints, you know, even

570
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 1: with you know, even with a quarterback that they didn't

571
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 1: really you know, feel greater, but just a bridge quarterback.

572
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 1: You know, the Saints are twenty third offense, twenty first passing,

573
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 1: so the Mariota Falcons are better than the Dalton Saints

574
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 1: would have go to Winston next in. And you know,

575
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 1: if Ritter is just a wash, if he's the same

576
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 1: as Mariota, we're still talking about I'm getting a team

577
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 1: with the better offense plus four and a half, and

578
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 1: not only just the better offense Atlanta, you know, despite

579
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 1: their defense, which is you know, by the metrics, it's

580
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 1: been bottom three, it hasn't been good. But this Atlanta

581
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 1: team in overall DVA is sixteenth. New Orleans is twenty second.

582
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 1: So Atlanta has been the better team and we're getting

583
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 1: them plus four and a half in a division game,

584
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 1: both teams coming off of bye, so it should be

585
00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 1: no I know we're in New Orleans here, but both

586
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 1: teams playing doors, both teams coming off a bye, shouldn't

587
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 1: be a major major advantage for the Saints here. So

588
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 1: I like getting in Atlanta here. And there's a pretty

589
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 1: decent chance that Ritter could actually be better than Mariota.

590
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 1: There's a chance that he could allow Arthur Smith to

591
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 1: do more with the offense, you know, throw the ball, bore,

592
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: throw the ball down field more, a lot of different

593
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 1: things that Rider might unlock. And Ridder still gives you

594
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 1: something with his legs as well, So like getting the

595
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: four and a half here.

596
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't have a really good feel in this game,

597
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 2: but we'll see what we get from Ridder. But I

598
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 2: will say this is like the right time to do it.

599
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 2: I mean Mariota surgery. But it's off a bye, right,

600
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 2: rookie quarterback, You've had two weeks to prepare and we've

601
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 2: seen how many times have we seen these quarterbacks whether

602
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 2: or not to end up becoming good or not in

603
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 2: their first start has success. The other team doesn't have

604
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 2: a book on them, So I think that that's you know,

605
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 2: there's an advantage there as well. But overall I don't

606
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 2: have a great feel, but I can certainly see logic

607
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 2: would get some trends here.

608
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 1: Remember the Falcons. I think we were on the Falcons

609
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 1: week one and they ended up covering against this Saints team.

610
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 1: You look at teams that have that lost the first

611
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 1: head the head matchup and they're playing in the rematch

612
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 1: and they're a dog by three or more. They are

613
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 1: in one ninety eight one to fifteen and eleven sixty

614
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 1: three percent against the spread. Uh since two thousand and three,

615
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 1: four and one this season? Uh, you know in week fifteen,

616
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 1: when you have an underdog facing a favorite with a

617
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 1: sub five hundred record forty three thirty and one against

618
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 1: the spread fifty nine percent since oh five, and uh

619
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 1: in week fifteen, when you have a road dog on

620
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 1: a losing streak against the spread of anywhere from one

621
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 1: to three games, which is the Falcons who lost a

622
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 1: couple in a row failed to cover a couple in

623
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 1: a row after that hot start, forty five to sixty

624
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 1: two percent against the spread. And of course you still

625
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 1: have you know, dogs by more than a field goal

626
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 1: the total forty seven or less this year sixty thirty five,

627
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 1: sixty three percent against the spread. So I just think

628
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 1: there is too many points, even with the uncertainty for Ritter,

629
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 1: because this has been a pretty decent offense. So even

630
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 1: if Ritter is worse, I mean, you could you know,

631
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 1: the Falcons are twelfth on offense the Saints at twenty thirty,

632
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 1: you still have a margin of error where the Falcons

633
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 1: can still be the better offense in this spot.

634
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 2: I'll be rooting for you, and I hope that I

635
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 2: don't have to watch too much of Actually no, I

636
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 2: want to actually you want to see Ridder.

637
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 1: I want to quarterback.

638
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 2: I am just tired of that, and I'm going to

639
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 2: be watching the box because I have money on them.

640
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 2: We'll talk about this Steelers Panthers game. I'm just so

641
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 2: tired of them watching the NFC South. All Right. For

642
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 2: my third pick of the week, fifteen Sunday six pack,

643
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 2: I'm going with the Tampa Bay Bucks plus three and

644
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 2: a half against Cincinnati Bengals. I hate doing this. I

645
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 2: hate we're trying to think have we earlier in the season.

646
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 2: I mean the Bucks have cover maybe once you couldn't

647
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 2: figure out the box. I've actually had a good hand

648
00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 2: on the box. I bet him against a Seahawks yep,

649
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 2: ye ye. The Bucks have not been good. It's been ugly,

650
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 2: but I think that this is just a perfect bi

651
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 2: low cell high spot. It's also a dog off of

652
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 2: a big loss. Like you just mentioned. That's all those trends.

653
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 2: I just lost by twenty eight. Now they're catching three

654
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 2: and a half at home. The reason for that is

655
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 2: because they just got blown out. Everyone saw it. And

656
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 2: Cincinnati has been on a roll. I mean, this is

657
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 2: a team of beat and they've covered like I think

658
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 2: thirteen of their past fourteen.

659
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 1: Think it's like eighteen of their past twenty one actually,

660
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken, Yeah.

661
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 2: They've been covering machines. I think this is the top

662
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 2: of the market here. It's right around a key number,

663
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 2: and I think that we're getting like a half a

664
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 2: point to a point more on the Bucks than we

665
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 2: should because of market perception over the past few weeks.

666
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 2: And it's right around one of the most important or

667
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,479
Speaker 2: the most important number in the NFL. So I'll happily

668
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 2: take the three and a half here. I do think

669
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 2: that the Bucks will have a number of defensive backs return,

670
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 2: and Antoine Winfield is so important. He said it. Look

671
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 2: he's going to play today. We'll see if he does.

672
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 2: Murphy bunting practice today. Bol said he's the closest to playing.

673
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,919
Speaker 2: You know, you could see, you know. I think Dean

674
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 2: is going to be out, Vida A is going to

675
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:20,359
Speaker 2: be out, Tristan Wurstall on the offensive side. So it's

676
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:22,360
Speaker 2: not a full strength team, but the sam can be

677
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 2: said for the Bengals. The Bengals have been so healthy

678
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 2: this year. Who knows if you can trust their injury

679
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 2: report anymore, But that's another story. But it looks like

680
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 2: Hayden Hurst is going to be out, Higgins still dealing

681
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,840
Speaker 2: with a hamstring, which usually lingers. Looks like Boyd is

682
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,760
Speaker 2: going to miss time. So this is a receiving corps,

683
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 2: especially when once you include the tight end that's really decimated.

684
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 2: You know, if you look back at their results over

685
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 2: the past few weeks, I mean that they've been winning

686
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 2: games and covering, but they've been close. Now they're also

687
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:55,280
Speaker 2: going to be missing. They're one of their best pass rushers.

688
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:57,399
Speaker 2: It looks like I assume Hendrickson is going to miss,

689
00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 2: which is important since Wurst is out. So this isn't

690
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 2: a full strength Bengals team. Another big game for them,

691
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,799
Speaker 2: fourth in a row on the road here. I think

692
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 2: that they're just over sold in the market, or overbought,

693
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 2: i should say, And I'm going to sell them catching

694
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 2: three and a half with the Bucks at home, I

695
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 2: think that there's a really high likelihood that this game

696
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:21,279
Speaker 2: ends Bengals by three. So I mean, if this is three,

697
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 2: I wouldn't take it, but you're gonna give me the

698
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 2: hook around the three good bylos Sell. High spot on Tampa.

699
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 2: I'm wrong with the Bucks here.

700
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Tampa Bay has been more competitive at home,

701
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 1: you know, with you know, they go on the road,

702
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: they get blown out by San Francisco. It was the

703
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 1: Cleveland on the road. In the game they were favored.

704
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 1: They'd end up losing by six in overtime. But you know,

705
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:44,800
Speaker 1: they beat the Rams at home. They only lost the

706
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 1: Ravens by five at home. They beat the Falcons at home. Chiefs,

707
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:50,759
Speaker 1: they kind of they hung in there, lost by ten,

708
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 1: and they had that two point loss to the Packers.

709
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 1: But on the road is where you really see some

710
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 1: of their their uglier games. At twenty one to three

711
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 1: loss to Carolina, you know, the loss of Cleveland, and

712
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 1: then the loss to the Niners, they really you know,

713
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 1: they they really underperformed.

714
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 2: And then the lost upset to Pittsburgh too.

715
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: I think they were what eight nine point favorites in

716
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 1: that game, so they will last four road games have

717
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 1: been disastrous. So I do think if you are getting

718
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 1: on the on the Bucks, you want to do it

719
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 1: in a spot like this when they are at home.

720
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 1: All right. For my third pick and the sixth over

721
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 1: off of the week, fifteen to six pack, I'm gonna

722
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:29,880
Speaker 1: go with the Indianapolis Coats plus four and a half

723
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 1: at the Minnesota Vikings. And this is just kind of

724
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 1: a bet on the Coats bouncing back. Here we tend

725
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 1: to see that, you know, as bad as the team

726
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 1: may look the game before, they tend to bounce back.

727
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 1: I already mentioned it, but underdog's coming off a loss

728
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 1: of twenty or more points are one oh six, sixty

729
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:51,240
Speaker 1: nine and three sixty one percent against the spread since

730
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:54,320
Speaker 1: twenty seventeen eleven four to one this season.

731
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:56,720
Speaker 2: I think the boats also if you look at teams

732
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 2: give it up fifty, you know, losing by that match,

733
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 2: all those and then you're off of a bye and

734
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 2: then sorry to interrupt you, but if you look at

735
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 2: the Colts, who have been just terrific, I think that

736
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 2: weighs on people's minds, Like do you see these games

737
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 2: where it's like, oh my god, look how bad they look.

738
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,799
Speaker 2: But if you go back this year, you know, they

739
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 2: lost twenty four to nothing to the Jags and just

740
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,320
Speaker 2: an embarrassing game. The next week they beat the Chiefs

741
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 2: at home. Their other really bad loss was they lost

742
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 2: twenty six to three to the Patriots in their worst

743
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:30,359
Speaker 2: offensive game in twenty years. The next week they won

744
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 2: at the Raiders. So in there are the two only

745
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:37,719
Speaker 2: two games that they got blown out this year, prior

746
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:41,160
Speaker 2: to last week. They actually won outright as an underdog

747
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 2: the following week, And now you're coming off of a

748
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 2: bye after your third shut up set. That just speaks

749
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 2: to kind of the don't overreact to results. You're never

750
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:51,000
Speaker 2: really as bad as you look to week before.

751
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 1: But again, yeah, I think a bye week is great

752
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 1: for this team in general. You know a coach I

753
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 1: just Saturday who's just kind of getting his feet wet

754
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 1: to have a bye this weight and be able to

755
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 1: kind of regroup and assess after four games, which is

756
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 1: usually a good sample size, and so I think you

757
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 1: know you'll see scamatically probably their best game plan yet.

758
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 1: I think you'll see some adjustments. A running back like

759
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:17,400
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor by week is important. You know, he's averaging

760
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 1: twenty two touches per game this season. They're gonna use

761
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 1: him a ton in this one, so you know he

762
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:24,840
Speaker 1: hasn't been fully healthy this year. This might be the

763
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 1: healthiest he is now coming off. To buy this Minnesota defense,

764
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 1: this this is a bad defense. I mean last week

765
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 1: they forced two punts on ten linon drives. Detroit scored

766
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 1: in five of its last six possessions, the only one

767
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 1: they didn't score was a miss field goal, So essentially,

768
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 1: once Detroit got in a rhythm, they just couldn't stop them.

769
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 1: And the week before we saw something similar against the

770
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 1: Jets with Mike White, you know, the Jets scoring five

771
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 1: straight drives starting in the second quarter and extended to

772
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 1: you know, into the second half, and then in the

773
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 1: sixth one they could have scored six, it was a

774
00:38:57,560 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 1: turnover on downs at the one yard lone. So this

775
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 1: Viking defense just goes through these stretches where they just

776
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 1: can't stop anyone. They're twenty six and dvoa against number

777
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 1: one receivers and they're allowing the fourth most schedule adjusted

778
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:13,280
Speaker 1: receiving yards per game to number one. So Michael Pittman

779
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:14,880
Speaker 1: this year, he's been a little up and down, but

780
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:17,840
Speaker 1: when he gets fifty or more yards, which again the

781
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 1: Vikings are giving up, you know, eighty seven schedule adjusted

782
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 1: if he gets fifty or more yards, that's happened nine

783
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 1: times this year. The Colts are four to four and

784
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 1: one straight up in those games, and two of those

785
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:31,479
Speaker 1: losses were by one point, so they would have gone

786
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 1: seven to two against the spread versus a line of

787
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 1: four and a half or really any line above one,

788
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 1: you know in this in this spot here, So I

789
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:46,319
Speaker 1: think that that's important. And you look at this Minnesota team. Yes,

790
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:48,799
Speaker 1: they're ten and three, you know, they finally figured out

791
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 1: how to pull out some of these close games. But

792
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 1: they're being out gained four h four to three forty

793
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:55,760
Speaker 1: two on average.

794
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 2: They're being out negative point, negative point deferential. And they're

795
00:39:58,640 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 2: ten and three.

796
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 1: Too, Yeah, they I mean they're bringing out gained by

797
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:04,319
Speaker 1: sixty two yards a game. Now would you do guess

798
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:07,879
Speaker 1: the Colts are out gaining their opponents on average by

799
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,000
Speaker 1: three yards a game, three eighteen to three fifteen, So

800
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 1: the Colts are actually outgaining their opponents, Minnesota getting out

801
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 1: gained by sixty two yards.

802
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:17,359
Speaker 2: So it's really going on here.

803
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 1: Well, obviously if you see the Coats, you know it's

804
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:23,600
Speaker 1: that turnover. It's the turnovers, you know, But turnovers tend

805
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 1: to revert to the means. So Indianapolis they're minus fourteen

806
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 1: and turnover differential Minnesota is a plus six, and that

807
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 1: explains a lot of why in general, Minnesota's been one

808
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 1: of the luckiest teams in the league this year. Indianapoli

809
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:40,600
Speaker 1: has been one of the unluckiest. We have our action

810
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:45,839
Speaker 1: Network Luck rankings, Minnesota the second luckiest, Indianapolis twenty eighth.

811
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:48,280
Speaker 1: When you have a luck differential of more than fifteen,

812
00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 1: which you do here, it's a differential of twenty six,

813
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 1: with the Colts bottom five and the Vikings top five

814
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:57,439
Speaker 1: twenty eight and twenty fifty eight percent since week three

815
00:40:57,480 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 1: when we started tracking it. So these are the kind

816
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 1: of spots where you want to kind of, as you mentioned,

817
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 1: kind of fade the perception of some of the bad

818
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 1: memories of to Coke. Thieve, you know, they got rolled

819
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:10,959
Speaker 1: by Dallas. It'll happen. Dallas is one of the better

820
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 1: teams in the league. I mean, we saw Minnesota get

821
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 1: rolled by Dallas as well, you know, So it's really,

822
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,799
Speaker 1: you know, what are we really talking about here and

823
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 1: in these specific kind of spots, because remember, not only

824
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 1: is Indianapolis coming off a by which should benefit them

825
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 1: in a lot of ways, but Minnesota, because this game

826
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:28,600
Speaker 1: is on a Saturday, Minnesota is going to be on

827
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 1: short rest. So when you have a small road dog

828
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 1: of two and a half to seven against a home

829
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 1: favorite on short rest, the road dog forty seven and

830
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 1: twenty three with four pushes sixty seven percent against the spread,

831
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 1: going back to two thousand and five, and just you know,

832
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:49,759
Speaker 1: Week fifteen is one of those weeks where you know,

833
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 1: favorites have kind of been doing their thing. You know,

834
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:56,359
Speaker 1: historically Week twelve to fourteen, you see favorites start covering more,

835
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 1: the market starts to address. Week fifteen is historically been

836
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 1: a big underdog week. Just Week fifteen road Dogs coming

837
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:05,840
Speaker 1: off a loss fifty five, thirty two and two sixty

838
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 1: three percent against the spread since two thousand and five.

839
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 1: And that's not accounting for how big doss was, you know,

840
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,960
Speaker 1: how good or bad the team is, just straight up

841
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:16,719
Speaker 1: coming off the loss, they're covering over sixty percent at

842
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 1: the time. And when you have a Week fifteen road

843
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 1: dog on a losing streak of one to three games

844
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:26,200
Speaker 1: forty five, twenty two and two sixty seven percent against

845
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:28,800
Speaker 1: the spread since two thousand and five. So the trends

846
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 1: line up. I don't think there's as big of a

847
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:35,879
Speaker 1: gap between these two teams as the records indicate, and

848
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 1: just hoping Matt Ryan does not turn them all over

849
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:43,840
Speaker 1: five times in this one. So give me the Indianapolis

850
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 1: Colts plus four and a half at Minnesota on Saturday.

851
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, and there's some teams that we have

852
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 2: like a really good feel on. In some teams we've

853
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 2: got a really bad feel on this whole year. The

854
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 2: Cults are one of them that we've had a good

855
00:42:56,480 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 2: feel on, you know, kind of bought them after the

856
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,400
Speaker 2: Patriots game a couple of weeks, got off them. And

857
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:04,200
Speaker 2: then the reason we talked about that why we didn't

858
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 2: like them against the Colts or the Cowboys is both

859
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:11,880
Speaker 2: of those teams ability. And this this, this is why

860
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 2: the turn of their turners aren't all luck when they

861
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:19,320
Speaker 2: played teams that just can generate relentless elite pressure against

862
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 2: the statue esque you know, old Matt Ryan, it's gonna

863
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 2: lead to bad things. But that's not the case here.

864
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 2: You're not facing a defense that generates elite pressure. Their

865
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:31,240
Speaker 2: pressure rate, I think is probably around twentieth in the league.

866
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 1: They're actually lower than that. Minnesota is twenty fourth in

867
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 1: pressure rate. And and they're not gonna bwitz either. So

868
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 1: they're just gonna kind of sit back. They don't play

869
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 1: much man coverage, just gonna kind of sit back and

870
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:45,840
Speaker 1: you know, let the let the Coats do what they

871
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 1: gotta do.

872
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:48,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, Cousins was a mess. The last time. He saw

873
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:50,759
Speaker 2: this Colts defense for what it was worth. But yeah,

874
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:52,399
Speaker 2: I think this is this time to buy the Colts.

875
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:56,799
Speaker 2: Good spot off by and liked that Cowboys game. Like

876
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 2: I mentioned, they bounced back from the last two blow

877
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 2: up upsets perfectly fine with outright wins as Rod. Even

878
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:06,960
Speaker 2: the Vikings win this game, they won nine Their last

879
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,239
Speaker 2: nine wins have all been by one possession, so it's

880
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:10,879
Speaker 2: a good chance to win this game by a field goal.

881
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 2: But they're due to lose one of these close games eventually, Vikings,

882
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 2: I'm sure wrestling. I think it's the right time to

883
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 2: buy the Colts.

884
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 1: All right, So that is gonna wrap it for the

885
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:26,240
Speaker 1: week fifteen six pack. Let's see, we got some Mike White,

886
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:31,719
Speaker 1: Tom Bray, Tever Lawrence, Daniel Jones, Desmond Ritter, and Matt Ryan.

887
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 1: So yeah, another kind of full spectrum of quarterbacks.

888
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:38,359
Speaker 2: Yere Forrady and Ryan. Don't expect many scrambles if you're

889
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:39,240
Speaker 2: following us on those.

890
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 1: Games, Mike either. Really yeah, we're taking all those hits, okay.

891
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 1: So yeah, to recap, Stuck has the Jags plus four

892
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:53,360
Speaker 1: and a half, the Jets plus one, and the Bucks

893
00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 1: plus three and a half, And I have the Gemon

894
00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:02,839
Speaker 1: plus four and a half, Falcons plus four and a half,

895
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:04,800
Speaker 1: and the Cults plus four and a half.

896
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:07,919
Speaker 2: That one lots of dogs. I have so many dogs

897
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 2: this week. So it was music to my ears. And

898
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 2: you said, week fifteen, let's hope that we get another

899
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 2: week fifteen dog week because lots of dogs for me

900
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 2: and us.

901
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:20,160
Speaker 1: This weekend fifteen and sixteen tend to be the weeks

902
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:24,359
Speaker 1: historically anyway, Obviously anything can happen, but historically fifteen and

903
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 1: sixteen have been the weeks where the dogs tend to

904
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:28,720
Speaker 1: bounce back because you know, it always goes in ebbs

905
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:31,760
Speaker 1: and flows. Like you start the season, dogs are usually great,

906
00:45:32,200 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 1: especially the first you know, couple two, three, four weeks.

907
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 1: Then you start to see favorites rebound a little bit,

908
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:41,319
Speaker 1: you know, they get undervalued, and then you know, kind

909
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 1: of evens out. But favorites really start to pick up

910
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 1: steep steam around Thanksgiving, and we've seen.

911
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:49,160
Speaker 2: That the last couple of weeks favorites have been killing

912
00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:51,759
Speaker 2: it when they were so and I think that and

913
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:53,799
Speaker 2: that's fact. They'd into a lot of my A lot

914
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 2: of our reasoning today is just like let me look

915
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:58,279
Speaker 2: at the Bengals and like I think that some of

916
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 2: these favorites that have been killing it are a bit

917
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 2: overbyed and some of these dogs that have been losing

918
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 2: our a bit underbey. So hopefully it's a good Bilo

919
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:06,640
Speaker 2: cell high storm.

920
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 1: And we have six dogs all from one to four

921
00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 1: and a half points, so we don't have any of

922
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 1: those like you know, like you know, I was tempted

923
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:18,120
Speaker 1: to maybe take the Bears or something like that, but

924
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 1: you know, we don't have any of those. Like all

925
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 1: of our dogs are live dogs here, you know. And

926
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 1: now it's time for the week fifteen Coaches Pep Talk.

927
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 2: This is by far the worst team that has ever

928
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 2: sat in this locker room. You know, for locker room.

929
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:36,400
Speaker 2: We should be playing, but there's not one of you,

930
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 2: not one of you that's learn to how to win.

931
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:42,759
Speaker 1: This week's Coaches pep Talk comes to us from our

932
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:48,880
Speaker 1: boss Man Action Network content concho Chad Millman, courtesy at

933
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:53,360
Speaker 1: a Favorites podcast, And we're dedicated this one to Jeff Saturday,

934
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:56,640
Speaker 1: you know, dedicated it a couple to Hacket and he

935
00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 1: got it done you last few weeks. So this week

936
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 1: we really need at least I really need just Saturday,

937
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:05,959
Speaker 1: uh to get his team up bounced back after after

938
00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 1: some disappointing showings and uh and take it to this

939
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 1: overrated Vikings team.

940
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:13,080
Speaker 2: So for you, I hope you, I hope you'd never

941
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:17,360
Speaker 2: doubted the Broncos plus time last week down twenty seven nothing.

942
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 2: Our PEP talks have worked. So let's let's send this

943
00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:22,759
Speaker 2: to We don't have any Broncos money this week, Let's

944
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:23,520
Speaker 2: send it to Saturday.

945
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just want you to punch a hole in

946
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:30,719
Speaker 1: their fucking chest, run it up their fucking throat, hit

947
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:34,799
Speaker 1: people in the fucking mouth. That's it, all right, Let's

948
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:36,759
Speaker 1: jump into our favorite total of the week. All right,

949
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 1: I'll start this one off after. I mean, both of

950
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 1: our totals last week talk about some unders that were

951
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:45,720
Speaker 1: never in doubt. I don't think either of our totals

952
00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:48,800
Speaker 1: had like a point for what the entire first quarter,

953
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 1: maybe into the second, if I'm not mistaken. I mean

954
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 1: it was just he kind of knew those were gonna

955
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 1: hit with Cincinnati and UH and the Jets games like that,

956
00:47:57,400 --> 00:48:00,319
Speaker 1: so hopefully we could keep it going this week. I'm

957
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 1: going Carolina Pittsburgh under thirty seven and a half. I mean,

958
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:07,880
Speaker 1: what are we really talking about here? Sam Donold versus

959
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:11,839
Speaker 1: either Mitch Drubisky or Mason Rudolph will apparently split first

960
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 1: team reps this week, which you know he's been the

961
00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 1: third string quarterback pickets in the concussion protocol, but if

962
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 1: he didn't have a real chance to start, I doubt

963
00:48:18,640 --> 00:48:21,640
Speaker 1: he would be splitting first team reps with Trubisky. So

964
00:48:22,480 --> 00:48:25,359
Speaker 1: a good chance you get Mason Rudolph here this day

965
00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:28,640
Speaker 1: and age. With this new NFL concussion protocol, you usually

966
00:48:28,640 --> 00:48:34,440
Speaker 1: don't see guys clear it in a week. So betting,

967
00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:37,120
Speaker 1: we get we get one of the backups for Pittsburgh.

968
00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:42,880
Speaker 1: And okay, this Panther team this week not gonna go

969
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 1: to the Panthers bet you know, don't see a ton

970
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 1: of value either way. And if you're betting, you're betting

971
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:51,799
Speaker 1: again Yeah, I mean, if you're betting against them, then

972
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:54,239
Speaker 1: you know you do have the Talin spot. But you

973
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 1: know they are at home, they've been kind of rolling,

974
00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 1: and again Pittsburgh might start a third springer, But if

975
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:00,440
Speaker 1: you bet on them, then you're going to against the

976
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 1: tom win, you know spot. So's I rather go with

977
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 1: the under here, and that's because we saw last week,

978
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:11,960
Speaker 1: what did Carolina have successless running the football, they again

979
00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 1: ran it over forty times for over two hundred yards,

980
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 1: and when they tried to throw the ball, which I

981
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:18,279
Speaker 1: don't know why, of all things, you would ever try

982
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:19,919
Speaker 1: to throw the ball four straight times with the goal

983
00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:23,919
Speaker 1: line with Sam Garnold. But I digress know that that's

984
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:27,240
Speaker 1: not the strength of the team. Well, Pittsburgh number eleven

985
00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:29,399
Speaker 1: in run defense DVO. They've been good against the run

986
00:49:29,440 --> 00:49:31,719
Speaker 1: of a year except except last week. They did have

987
00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:34,960
Speaker 1: some hiccups, but that is a raven team that you know,

988
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 1: they got Ronnie Stanley back, they had their backs healthy.

989
00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 1: I think they kind of caught Pittsburgh GoF guard a

990
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 1: little bit, and you know, it was it is what

991
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 1: it is. But I still I do expect Pittsburgh to

992
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:49,399
Speaker 1: be able to stop the run here. Pittsburgh's issue has

993
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:52,839
Speaker 1: been explosive pass players. You know, they give up an

994
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:56,359
Speaker 1: NFL high eleven point seven yards per completion and they

995
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:59,000
Speaker 1: give up the six highest rate of twenty plus yard

996
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:02,440
Speaker 1: passing plays at fifteen and a half percent. But you

997
00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:04,279
Speaker 1: don't really have to worry about that as much with

998
00:50:04,360 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 1: a team like the Carolina Panthers, because Carolina, in Sam

999
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:14,920
Speaker 1: Donald's two starts, has called a design run. And this

1000
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 1: is excluding neil downs or not even using kneel downs. Here,

1001
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 1: they've called a designed run on sixty four percent of

1002
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:26,240
Speaker 1: their plays. They've had one hundred and thirty six plays

1003
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 1: that weren't kneel downs, and they've called a run sixty

1004
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:31,160
Speaker 1: four percent of the time. And you could get even

1005
00:50:31,160 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 1: more runs, you know, if you get like a quarterback

1006
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:36,240
Speaker 1: scramboy or something. I'm not even counting that with Sam Donald.

1007
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:39,120
Speaker 1: So you saw that against kind of with the Ravens

1008
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:42,560
Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh. Baltimore runs for over two hundred yards. They're

1009
00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 1: very efficient on the ground. But Baltimore only had twenty

1010
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:49,360
Speaker 1: three called passes. I think only fifteen pass attempts in

1011
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:53,200
Speaker 1: that game. And so it still ends what sixteen to

1012
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:57,120
Speaker 1: forty because you know, if you play a team like

1013
00:50:57,280 --> 00:50:59,799
Speaker 1: the Bengals in Burrow, they're gonna throw the ball on you.

1014
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 1: That's when Pittsburgh's defense starts giving up a big number.

1015
00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 1: But I trust Pittsburgh defense in this spot against Carolina,

1016
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:10,920
Speaker 1: and you look at Pittsburgh's d coming on strong lately,

1017
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:13,239
Speaker 1: held each of their last three opponents to sixteen to

1018
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:16,760
Speaker 1: seventeen points. Indian Wana, Baltimore or not exactly a murderer's

1019
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:19,880
Speaker 1: role of offenses, but again, neither is Carolina. You go

1020
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:22,680
Speaker 1: back even further, Pittsburgh has held six of its last

1021
00:51:22,719 --> 00:51:26,920
Speaker 1: eight opponents to eighteen points or last. The two exceptions

1022
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:30,319
Speaker 1: Philly put up thirty five and Cincinnati put up thirty seven.

1023
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 1: Those are two of the best offenses in the league,

1024
00:51:32,239 --> 00:51:36,480
Speaker 1: So against a team like this, Pittsburgh should reliably allow

1025
00:51:38,239 --> 00:51:41,400
Speaker 1: under twenty points. And then on the other side, Pittsburgh's

1026
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 1: only averaging fifteen point three points per game on the

1027
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 1: road in seven road games. They've been held under twenty

1028
00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:49,560
Speaker 1: points in five of their seven road games, and they're

1029
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 1: averaging about four and a half points less per game

1030
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:57,920
Speaker 1: on the road than they are at home, and Carolina

1031
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:00,759
Speaker 1: just fifteen and a half points per game allowed over

1032
00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 1: their past four and at home under Wilkes. They've only

1033
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:07,320
Speaker 1: played three games at home under Steve Wilkes since he

1034
00:52:07,360 --> 00:52:12,360
Speaker 1: took over three points allowed, fifteen points allowed, ten points allowed,

1035
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 1: so they haven't even allowed more than fifteen at home.

1036
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:18,840
Speaker 1: The average is nine point three under Wilkes, and Pittsburgh

1037
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 1: is running more of these days to they've called a

1038
00:52:21,680 --> 00:52:24,520
Speaker 1: design run. Over forty five percent of the time in

1039
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:27,719
Speaker 1: their last three games after doing so about thirty six

1040
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:30,799
Speaker 1: percent of the time in their first ten. So I

1041
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:32,600
Speaker 1: think both of these teams run a lout. I think

1042
00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:34,840
Speaker 1: both of these teams have a lot of trouble scoring.

1043
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:36,960
Speaker 1: I think both of these teams play conservatively, you know.

1044
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:38,759
Speaker 1: I think you can always count on Tom Win to

1045
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:40,360
Speaker 1: kick a field goal in a spot where maybe you

1046
00:52:40,400 --> 00:52:42,880
Speaker 1: should go for it. And the Panthers kind of the

1047
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 1: same way. Tomlin rode under seventy three fifty three and

1048
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:49,680
Speaker 1: one all time fifty eight percent. Give me under thirty

1049
00:52:49,719 --> 00:52:56,920
Speaker 1: seven and a half in Carolina Pittsburgh.

1050
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:57,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, dominate it at all. I get more confused by

1051
00:52:57,760 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 2: the concussion Bertocal with each passing week kind of started

1052
00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:02,719
Speaker 2: to get a grasp Like, for the most part, all

1053
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:03,920
Speaker 2: the data I have says like, if you get the

1054
00:53:03,960 --> 00:53:07,240
Speaker 2: concussion the week before, you're like after the two of stuff,

1055
00:53:07,239 --> 00:53:09,960
Speaker 2: you're pretty much like ninety percent of people are out right,

1056
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 2: So like that's become my assumption. But then it's like

1057
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:19,480
Speaker 2: this week, Russell Wilson, there's like word that he might play.

1058
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:24,000
Speaker 2: He was knocked unconscious, but early the week like we

1059
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:25,960
Speaker 2: only care about health, and then he's at practice today

1060
00:53:26,000 --> 00:53:29,080
Speaker 2: and people are like he's trending out, and then Tyler Huntley,

1061
00:53:29,239 --> 00:53:32,239
Speaker 2: who gets like bent backwards, gets a concussion. It looks

1062
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:35,359
Speaker 2: like he's trying to play, so like, what's going on?

1063
00:53:35,800 --> 00:53:39,560
Speaker 1: Well, I think it still depends on whether you actually

1064
00:53:39,640 --> 00:53:42,480
Speaker 1: had a concussion or not. I think I think hunt

1065
00:53:42,480 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 1: We didn't actually get a concussion. I believe he said

1066
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:46,960
Speaker 1: that on I want to say, maybe it was Marlon

1067
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:49,160
Speaker 1: Humphrey's eye, so I forget where he said it, but

1068
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:51,520
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure I saw hunt We say maybe it

1069
00:53:51,560 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 1: was just an interview, but that he didn't actually get

1070
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:56,160
Speaker 1: a concussion. I think Pickett got when I'm pretty sure

1071
00:53:56,200 --> 00:53:58,399
Speaker 1: Russ got, which I think Russ is kind of you're

1072
00:53:58,440 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 1: you're still allowed to like I think you're about to

1073
00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:02,480
Speaker 1: practice with a non contact jersey on or something like that.

1074
00:54:03,120 --> 00:54:07,440
Speaker 1: So sometimes you see these quarterbacks participate in practice, but

1075
00:54:07,480 --> 00:54:10,160
Speaker 1: they still have to get cleared. So I think the

1076
00:54:10,200 --> 00:54:12,000
Speaker 1: thinking with Huntley is just that I don't think he

1077
00:54:12,040 --> 00:54:14,680
Speaker 1: had a concussion, so he'll probably get queered Wilson. I

1078
00:54:14,680 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 1: would guess it's more gamesmanship, you know. I don't I

1079
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:21,640
Speaker 1: doubt that he actually gets cleared. I mean, because if

1080
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 1: he plays.

1081
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 2: It's gonna confuse me more about this because he's a

1082
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:27,759
Speaker 2: quarterback who got knocked unconscious to ad a concussion the

1083
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:30,319
Speaker 2: week before, And.

1084
00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:31,279
Speaker 1: To be honest, I think you know, Hackett kind of

1085
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:33,200
Speaker 1: alluded earlier in the week to like you were gonna

1086
00:54:33,320 --> 00:54:37,280
Speaker 1: kind of prioritize the safety. So I mean I would

1087
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:39,640
Speaker 1: I would highly doubt that he actually plays. But you know,

1088
00:54:40,200 --> 00:54:42,719
Speaker 1: some some every team is different with you know how

1089
00:54:42,760 --> 00:54:45,520
Speaker 1: direct they are injuries. Like some you know will kind

1090
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:47,880
Speaker 1: of give you okay'll rule a guy out on like Tuesday,

1091
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:49,480
Speaker 1: even if you do, you don't have to to like

1092
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:53,759
Speaker 1: Friday or Saturday. And some teams will kind of do

1093
00:54:53,840 --> 00:54:56,279
Speaker 1: what the Bengals do, the Patriots do, put everyone on them.

1094
00:54:56,320 --> 00:54:59,480
Speaker 1: So it's all different. But yeah, I would expect, I

1095
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:03,040
Speaker 1: do expect, help me to clear. But Wilson, I doubt it.

1096
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 1: I pick it, I doubt it.

1097
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:09,160
Speaker 2: For my favorite total, I'm going with the Kansas City

1098
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:16,080
Speaker 2: Chiefs Houston Texans under forty nine and a half. I

1099
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:21,279
Speaker 2: just think that this total has gone up too much.

1100
00:55:21,840 --> 00:55:24,920
Speaker 2: It's risen a bit. Not sure why. And historically, if

1101
00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:29,319
Speaker 2: you look at these big favorites in totals that are

1102
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:32,480
Speaker 2: above forty five. The under has been a good bet

1103
00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:35,160
Speaker 2: historically over the past thirty years. Reason for that is

1104
00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:39,759
Speaker 2: either the underman team you know, steps up and usually

1105
00:55:39,760 --> 00:55:41,359
Speaker 2: that's on defense and they try to keep this close,

1106
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:43,759
Speaker 2: or the favorite, which in this case the Chiefs go

1107
00:55:43,840 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 2: up by a lot and they sit on it. Just

1108
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:50,200
Speaker 2: like we saw what was Miami up thirty five nothing

1109
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:55,440
Speaker 2: at the half and that kid still stayed under I

1110
00:55:55,480 --> 00:55:56,960
Speaker 2: believe somehow.

1111
00:55:56,520 --> 00:56:00,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, twenty eight or twenty seven nothing then.

1112
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, twenty seven nothing was under forty.

1113
00:56:03,320 --> 00:56:04,399
Speaker 1: Five and a half by the way I.

1114
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:09,680
Speaker 2: Have yeah, yeah, And now you have a Texans team

1115
00:56:09,880 --> 00:56:13,359
Speaker 2: that might not have well, won't have Damian Pierce at

1116
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:19,319
Speaker 2: running back. They likely they won't have Nico Collins, or

1117
00:56:19,360 --> 00:56:21,760
Speaker 2: they won't have Brandon Cooks. They might not have Vico Collins.

1118
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:25,480
Speaker 2: It's going to be you know, Davis Mills throwing the

1119
00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 2: Chris Moore or Jeff Driscoll in there, who played well

1120
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:30,799
Speaker 2: last week. But you kind of saw the the Chief's

1121
00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:32,480
Speaker 2: not got to see like what the Texans are doing

1122
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:34,520
Speaker 2: with them. I think that some of the Driscoll pack,

1123
00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:37,920
Speaker 2: which just caught the Cowboys off guard. Yeah, So I mean, like,

1124
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:40,680
Speaker 2: what is the Texas offense gonna do not really sure

1125
00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:43,920
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, well, I love the I love Chiefs is

1126
00:56:43,920 --> 00:56:46,040
Speaker 2: a big favorite. Going under a lot of times that

1127
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 2: happens at home in these types of games. They just

1128
00:56:48,280 --> 00:56:50,839
Speaker 2: don't want to show a lot and I think their

1129
00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:53,879
Speaker 2: defense is not going to take much to show off here,

1130
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:56,600
Speaker 2: but it kind of got embarrassed last week by Russell Wilson.

1131
00:56:57,120 --> 00:56:59,919
Speaker 2: And I think Chiefs will build a big lead here,

1132
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:03,960
Speaker 2: sit on it, and get the hell out of Dodge.

1133
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:06,640
Speaker 2: And I think this total has gone up a bit

1134
00:57:06,680 --> 00:57:10,680
Speaker 2: too much like it looks if Chiefs gonna score forty

1135
00:57:10,880 --> 00:57:12,880
Speaker 2: they do, it's gonna go over. But you know, I

1136
00:57:12,880 --> 00:57:15,759
Speaker 2: think that they'll probably get like thirty one thirty four

1137
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:19,960
Speaker 2: to you know, let's call it like thirty one fourteen,

1138
00:57:20,600 --> 00:57:25,840
Speaker 2: maybe thirty one seventeen even still stays under. So yeah,

1139
00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:27,400
Speaker 2: not now that this is at forty nine and a half,

1140
00:57:27,480 --> 00:57:28,200
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go under.

1141
00:57:29,080 --> 00:57:32,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, And remember, coming out of last week, no one

1142
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:34,520
Speaker 1: really knew what the Texas were going to do with

1143
00:57:34,560 --> 00:57:38,200
Speaker 1: that Jeff Driscoll, Davis Mills platoon. Now you got some

1144
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:41,280
Speaker 1: tape on it, and also lose your best offensive player

1145
00:57:41,920 --> 00:57:45,080
Speaker 1: in Danny Pierce. So I think, you know, Chris Moore

1146
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:47,640
Speaker 1: probably not getting another ten catches for a Hundbuck twenty

1147
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:51,520
Speaker 1: four this time around. And you the pass defense has

1148
00:57:51,560 --> 00:57:55,400
Speaker 1: been respectable. I think they are what seventeenth in Dvoa,

1149
00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:58,240
Speaker 1: And they don't really allow a ton I mean, obviously

1150
00:57:58,320 --> 00:58:00,360
Speaker 1: on the ground they do. But if you're bet the

1151
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:02,560
Speaker 1: Chiefs under you rather the Chiefs get it that way.

1152
00:58:02,800 --> 00:58:04,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, they don't allow it. They just think and they

1153
00:58:04,800 --> 00:58:08,240
Speaker 2: they're gonna sit and just their cover two drop safeties

1154
00:58:08,800 --> 00:58:11,479
Speaker 2: and then just make the Chiefs work it down the field,

1155
00:58:11,560 --> 00:58:13,000
Speaker 2: which is just gonna heat clock.

1156
00:58:13,200 --> 00:58:17,680
Speaker 1: Yep, Stuck is going Chiefs Texans under forty nine and

1157
00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 1: a half. I'm going Panthers Steelers under thirty seven and

1158
00:58:20,880 --> 00:58:24,080
Speaker 1: a half. Now it's time for a favorite teaser of.

1159
00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:34,600
Speaker 2: The Oh yeah, six point teasers. Don't don't change, don't

1160
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 2: tease me, try to please. Yeah. I actually I'm gonna

1161
00:58:43,560 --> 00:58:45,400
Speaker 2: switch it up. I'm gonna have the same one as you.

1162
00:58:45,480 --> 00:58:47,640
Speaker 2: Originally I was gonna go with the Steelers, but Mason

1163
00:58:47,680 --> 00:58:49,320
Speaker 2: Rudolf is scaring me. I's still my tease. That may

1164
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:52,280
Speaker 2: be smaller with the with the Seahawks if just if

1165
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:53,880
Speaker 2: I get involved in that game. But I'm gonna go

1166
00:58:54,680 --> 00:58:59,760
Speaker 2: with the Bills down to minus one and a half

1167
00:59:00,080 --> 00:59:03,960
Speaker 2: and the Ravens up to plus eight and a half.

1168
00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:08,840
Speaker 2: Number one. The Ravens like the totals thirty seven and

1169
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:12,760
Speaker 2: the Bills total is forty two. Lower totals. You're teasing

1170
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:14,560
Speaker 2: through the seven and three, which is what you want

1171
00:59:14,600 --> 00:59:17,720
Speaker 2: to do. The Dolphins are a mess on offense right now,

1172
00:59:18,160 --> 00:59:20,800
Speaker 2: and we know that their secondary is very poor. The

1173
00:59:20,840 --> 00:59:23,080
Speaker 2: Bills have historically over the past couple of years just

1174
00:59:23,120 --> 00:59:25,680
Speaker 2: absolutely dominated this Dolphins team, and they did earlier this

1175
00:59:25,760 --> 00:59:28,480
Speaker 2: year and again they lost due to cramps. Stay out

1176
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:30,080
Speaker 2: gained them by like two hundred and fifty yards. Was

1177
00:59:30,080 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 2: just a really fluky game. I'm sure the Bills have

1178
00:59:32,440 --> 00:59:36,080
Speaker 2: been waiting for this. The Dolphins. Also, you'll talk about conditions.

1179
00:59:36,520 --> 00:59:38,600
Speaker 2: We could get snow here, could get a snover. I

1180
00:59:38,600 --> 00:59:40,640
Speaker 2: want to bring that up. If there's like the right

1181
00:59:40,680 --> 00:59:44,200
Speaker 2: amount of snow and the total will keep coming down

1182
00:59:44,880 --> 00:59:47,840
Speaker 2: and the wind doesn't really impact Josh Allen that much,

1183
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:49,360
Speaker 2: but there's a right amount of stow. You can't have

1184
00:59:49,400 --> 00:59:51,439
Speaker 2: like a blizzard, the total will keep coming down. Because

1185
00:59:51,440 --> 00:59:53,080
Speaker 2: everyone wants to bet the under, and then you wait

1186
00:59:53,160 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 2: till the bottom of the market and bet the over.

1187
00:59:54,400 --> 00:59:58,160
Speaker 2: That's what a snover is historically like seventy percent. It's subjected.

1188
00:59:58,200 --> 00:59:59,920
Speaker 2: You got it for if you have the right amount

1189
00:59:59,920 --> 01:00:02,680
Speaker 2: of we won't know until like an hour before kick,

1190
01:00:02,720 --> 01:00:04,280
Speaker 2: and that's when you get like the bottom of the market.

1191
01:00:04,640 --> 01:00:06,960
Speaker 2: But the first game, the Bills is cramped up. They

1192
01:00:06,960 --> 01:00:08,480
Speaker 2: had a bunch of starters out to and lost a

1193
01:00:08,480 --> 01:00:10,960
Speaker 2: couple during the game. Cramped up during that game. Well,

1194
01:00:11,040 --> 01:00:12,680
Speaker 2: now what are the what are the Dolphins going to do?

1195
01:00:13,440 --> 01:00:15,400
Speaker 2: They are number one? They were just at the forty

1196
01:00:15,480 --> 01:00:20,320
Speaker 2: nine ers at the Chargers and now they head two

1197
01:00:20,440 --> 01:00:25,680
Speaker 2: Buffalo in what twenty three weather in December? The Dolphins

1198
01:00:25,760 --> 01:00:29,240
Speaker 2: last week in the stadium that you were in, they

1199
01:00:29,240 --> 01:00:31,680
Speaker 2: said it was cool. It was it fifty to fifty

1200
01:00:31,720 --> 01:00:35,400
Speaker 2: five degrees. Heaters, they were using heaters. What are they

1201
01:00:35,520 --> 01:00:37,080
Speaker 2: I mean? Then, now you're going to Buffalo for your

1202
01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:41,280
Speaker 2: third straighter. This is a brutal spot for Miami. And look,

1203
01:00:41,320 --> 01:00:43,160
Speaker 2: teams are now just taking away the middle of the

1204
01:00:43,160 --> 01:00:47,240
Speaker 2: field against Tua. They're just playing more press man and

1205
01:00:47,240 --> 01:00:50,640
Speaker 2: then with inside leverage and they're dropping their linebackers back.

1206
01:00:50,880 --> 01:00:53,680
Speaker 2: Bill is one of the best coach teams in the

1207
01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:57,800
Speaker 2: NFL Dolphins. Now, what on like a short week, third

1208
01:00:57,840 --> 01:00:59,120
Speaker 2: straight road game, how much are they going to be

1209
01:00:59,120 --> 01:01:01,200
Speaker 2: able to fix their just teams are been trying to

1210
01:01:01,200 --> 01:01:02,800
Speaker 2: make to a throw to the sidelines and he can't

1211
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:06,400
Speaker 2: do it. So McDaniel's gonna have to get in the

1212
01:01:06,480 --> 01:01:08,480
Speaker 2: lab and come up with something. I don't necessarily think

1213
01:01:08,480 --> 01:01:10,760
Speaker 2: it's this week and now that you're gonna throw wins

1214
01:01:10,800 --> 01:01:15,640
Speaker 2: in there for Tua, I don't. I don't think it's

1215
01:01:15,640 --> 01:01:18,160
Speaker 2: gonna end well for the Dolphins. Secondary is still really poor.

1216
01:01:18,680 --> 01:01:23,160
Speaker 2: Allen should get his Bills get their revenge here, and

1217
01:01:23,440 --> 01:01:27,000
Speaker 2: the Ravens should keep this close. Stefanski, who's been awful

1218
01:01:27,040 --> 01:01:29,960
Speaker 2: by the way, is a favorite, and within the division,

1219
01:01:31,480 --> 01:01:33,600
Speaker 2: Ravens are healthy in the backfield. We saw hotly in

1220
01:01:33,640 --> 01:01:36,880
Speaker 2: a game I was at last year. Take the Ravens

1221
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:39,920
Speaker 2: all the way back against the Browns and you know

1222
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:43,560
Speaker 2: you're getting eight and a half here with the Ravens.

1223
01:01:44,480 --> 01:01:47,920
Speaker 2: Much better special teams, better coach team, and that defense

1224
01:01:48,040 --> 01:01:50,120
Speaker 2: is trending up. They've been number one against the run

1225
01:01:50,160 --> 01:01:53,439
Speaker 2: since adding Rokwan Smith to Sean Watson. Still doesn't look great.

1226
01:01:53,520 --> 01:01:57,240
Speaker 2: They've only scored sixteen offensive points in two games since

1227
01:01:57,280 --> 01:01:59,480
Speaker 2: he's returned. Still think there's gonna be some Russ like this,

1228
01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:01,480
Speaker 2: I can start reason game to me, So yeah, I

1229
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:04,160
Speaker 2: think the Ravens will keep this close. And for what

1230
01:02:04,240 --> 01:02:07,480
Speaker 2: it's worth, like the two like, I'm I'm money on

1231
01:02:07,600 --> 01:02:09,360
Speaker 2: parlaying more teams. So well, I'll get this when we

1232
01:02:09,400 --> 01:02:12,760
Speaker 2: get to the Chargers. That's what teaser. I think you agree, right, yeah,

1233
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:13,880
Speaker 2: So that's that's mine as well.

1234
01:02:14,440 --> 01:02:16,840
Speaker 1: With Buffalo, you know had the Circle does of a

1235
01:02:16,880 --> 01:02:20,280
Speaker 1: revenge spot. Obviously that was the famous infamous ten door

1236
01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:23,640
Speaker 1: seed throw everything game. But guess you know, if you

1237
01:02:23,680 --> 01:02:25,800
Speaker 1: spec if you expect Buffalo to win this game, and

1238
01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:27,800
Speaker 1: they are favored by seven and a half, you know,

1239
01:02:27,880 --> 01:02:30,360
Speaker 1: teasing them down. All nine of Buffalo's wins have come

1240
01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:33,560
Speaker 1: by three or more, so they wouldn't get you. You know,

1241
01:02:33,560 --> 01:02:35,720
Speaker 1: if they win, they'll probably win by field goal here.

1242
01:02:36,160 --> 01:02:38,560
Speaker 1: And then all five of Miami's losses have been by

1243
01:02:38,600 --> 01:02:42,000
Speaker 1: six or more. So when Miami loses, it's usually you know,

1244
01:02:42,120 --> 01:02:44,960
Speaker 1: trends more toward the blowout than you know, a one

1245
01:02:45,000 --> 01:02:48,720
Speaker 1: score kind of very close game at the end. And

1246
01:02:48,760 --> 01:02:52,600
Speaker 1: then the Ravens the same way. Cleveland's only won by

1247
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:56,160
Speaker 1: nine or more, which you would need to cover the

1248
01:02:56,200 --> 01:03:00,360
Speaker 1: teas for Cleveland in three of their thirteen games because

1249
01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:03,080
Speaker 1: they don't have any wins obviously, But Baltimore, all four

1250
01:03:03,080 --> 01:03:05,120
Speaker 1: of their losses have been by four points for less.

1251
01:03:05,160 --> 01:03:08,720
Speaker 1: So uh, you know, I think even with Huntley that

1252
01:03:08,720 --> 01:03:10,400
Speaker 1: I think they'll be all right. You know, this run

1253
01:03:10,480 --> 01:03:15,200
Speaker 1: game is uh, it's coming back into shape. And remember

1254
01:03:15,280 --> 01:03:16,920
Speaker 1: I think we talked about this last week. Hunt we

1255
01:03:17,320 --> 01:03:19,160
Speaker 1: every one of his career games has been closed. I

1256
01:03:19,200 --> 01:03:21,680
Speaker 1: think he has. I think he's like two in three

1257
01:03:21,720 --> 01:03:23,960
Speaker 1: in his starts, you know, obviously left last week, but

1258
01:03:24,240 --> 01:03:26,240
Speaker 1: the losses are like by one, one in three or

1259
01:03:26,280 --> 01:03:29,040
Speaker 1: something like that. So Baltimore just tends to play these

1260
01:03:29,080 --> 01:03:33,000
Speaker 1: close games. Hardball is thirty three twenty two sixty percent

1261
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:36,560
Speaker 1: as a road dog in his career and UH in

1262
01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:39,400
Speaker 1: the division week ten on thirteen, two and two eighty

1263
01:03:39,440 --> 01:03:42,520
Speaker 1: seven percent, And that's just covering, you know, the regular number,

1264
01:03:42,520 --> 01:03:44,640
Speaker 1: not even with the with the six and as you mentioned,

1265
01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:47,880
Speaker 1: stefan Ski four and twelve against the spread twenty five

1266
01:03:47,920 --> 01:03:52,960
Speaker 1: percent UH in the division all time. So yeah, like

1267
01:03:52,960 --> 01:03:55,680
Speaker 1: like Buffalo, like Baltimore with the AD and six.

1268
01:03:56,120 --> 01:03:57,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Ravens we going to run the ball

1269
01:03:57,800 --> 01:04:01,520
Speaker 2: here against h and they'll use their tight end, which

1270
01:04:01,560 --> 01:04:04,640
Speaker 2: is what Huntley did to come back against the Browns

1271
01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:08,720
Speaker 2: last week. The Browns really weak at linebacker. I know

1272
01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:10,520
Speaker 2: the Ravens have lost some pieces for the year, and

1273
01:04:10,560 --> 01:04:12,360
Speaker 2: I are they've had some of the worst injury luck

1274
01:04:12,880 --> 01:04:15,479
Speaker 2: in the NFL. And Lamar Jackson is out right now,

1275
01:04:15,920 --> 01:04:20,160
Speaker 2: but everyone else practice today. They are really healthy and

1276
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:23,000
Speaker 2: their defense is I think one of the most underrated

1277
01:04:23,400 --> 01:04:25,760
Speaker 2: in the NFL right now, since adding Rokland Smith, since

1278
01:04:25,920 --> 01:04:29,000
Speaker 2: getting some of their depth pieces back, you know on

1279
01:04:29,040 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 2: the edge, and then Marcus Williams came back last week.

1280
01:04:31,720 --> 01:04:33,920
Speaker 2: I think this defense is going to keep the Ravens

1281
01:04:33,920 --> 01:04:38,160
Speaker 2: in a lot of games, and this one should be close. Yep.

1282
01:04:38,640 --> 01:04:42,160
Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more so those are.

1283
01:04:41,120 --> 01:04:42,360
Speaker 2: And I'll be there if we need, if we need

1284
01:04:42,400 --> 01:04:46,160
Speaker 2: any interference from if I need to run on the field.

1285
01:04:47,120 --> 01:04:50,920
Speaker 1: Might need to play quarterback. Yeah, Buffalo season and down

1286
01:04:50,920 --> 01:04:52,000
Speaker 1: from seven and a half to one and a half

1287
01:04:52,000 --> 01:04:55,920
Speaker 1: against Miami on Saturday, and then the Ravens also on Saturday,

1288
01:04:56,040 --> 01:04:59,640
Speaker 1: teathing them down from tease them up from two and

1289
01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:01,520
Speaker 1: a half to eight and a half. Excuse me all

1290
01:05:01,560 --> 01:05:04,240
Speaker 1: right now? It's time for moneyline underdog parlay.

1291
01:05:07,240 --> 01:05:12,160
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1292
01:05:12,360 --> 01:05:13,640
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

1293
01:05:14,640 --> 01:05:16,600
Speaker 1: All right, yeah, you hit your eighth one last week.

1294
01:05:16,680 --> 01:05:20,080
Speaker 1: I'm still stuck on five. So why don't you go

1295
01:05:20,160 --> 01:05:22,520
Speaker 1: first and tell the people where you're going this week.

1296
01:05:23,080 --> 01:05:27,680
Speaker 2: It's a really, really short underdog. It's by the time

1297
01:05:27,720 --> 01:05:30,760
Speaker 2: you listen this three, they're gonna be pick plus one

1298
01:05:30,880 --> 01:05:35,640
Speaker 2: minus one. I'm gonna go with the Raiders here. I

1299
01:05:35,680 --> 01:05:41,120
Speaker 2: do think that I think that there's some injury variants

1300
01:05:41,120 --> 01:05:44,520
Speaker 2: that could work in their favor here. Second straight road

1301
01:05:44,560 --> 01:05:49,520
Speaker 2: game for the Patriots who are banged up, and I

1302
01:05:49,600 --> 01:05:52,320
Speaker 2: just don't trust their offensive play calling right now. Last

1303
01:05:52,360 --> 01:05:55,200
Speaker 2: week they got really fortunate against Arizona. I mean Kyle

1304
01:05:55,280 --> 01:05:57,960
Speaker 2: Murray went down and then just a no offensive line.

1305
01:05:58,840 --> 01:06:00,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was super careful with that. I mean that

1306
01:06:00,720 --> 01:06:01,960
Speaker 1: could have that changed the game when.

1307
01:06:01,840 --> 01:06:08,320
Speaker 2: He Yeah, it was Arizona was a corpse and like

1308
01:06:08,400 --> 01:06:11,120
Speaker 2: they it's it was just a game where they just

1309
01:06:11,240 --> 01:06:13,400
Speaker 2: I think they quit. But yeah, so I think that

1310
01:06:13,440 --> 01:06:16,360
Speaker 2: the Raiders, who still playoff hopes here, they've they're like

1311
01:06:16,440 --> 01:06:18,920
Speaker 2: in every game and they've been up by seventeen a bunch,

1312
01:06:19,000 --> 01:06:21,720
Speaker 2: and I'm just not a believer in this Patriots offense

1313
01:06:21,800 --> 01:06:23,880
Speaker 2: right now. The defense is very up and down. Like

1314
01:06:23,920 --> 01:06:26,720
Speaker 2: their overall matches are really good, but they'll have weeks

1315
01:06:26,720 --> 01:06:29,080
Speaker 2: where like they just don't look as good and that's

1316
01:06:29,200 --> 01:06:32,000
Speaker 2: because of their youth. But on offense, like you could

1317
01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:36,680
Speaker 2: be down. Ramandre Stevenson, Davian Harris might still be out,

1318
01:06:37,120 --> 01:06:40,640
Speaker 2: DeVante Parker wasn't in practice today, Jakoby Myers could be

1319
01:06:40,680 --> 01:06:42,360
Speaker 2: out like they are. They are banged up on office.

1320
01:06:42,360 --> 01:06:45,959
Speaker 2: They had some offense injuries on the offensive line. So yeah,

1321
01:06:46,000 --> 01:06:48,880
Speaker 2: I think that this I make the Raiders, you know,

1322
01:06:48,960 --> 01:06:52,720
Speaker 2: like a two ish a little over a two point

1323
01:06:52,760 --> 01:06:55,919
Speaker 2: favorite with some of the injuries. Because the Raiders also

1324
01:06:55,960 --> 01:06:59,600
Speaker 2: could get back hunter Renfro, they could get Darren Waller back,

1325
01:07:00,240 --> 01:07:03,000
Speaker 2: who both practiced today and came off ir They need

1326
01:07:03,040 --> 01:07:06,000
Speaker 2: to basically went out to get to the playoffs, which

1327
01:07:06,040 --> 01:07:08,360
Speaker 2: is wild because we were saying this last year, like

1328
01:07:08,400 --> 01:07:10,240
Speaker 2: the Raiders are dead, but they somehow did they got

1329
01:07:10,240 --> 01:07:11,800
Speaker 2: to the playoffs, So I think that maybe they'll still

1330
01:07:11,840 --> 01:07:14,040
Speaker 2: have hope. I remember how we're dead the Raiders were

1331
01:07:14,120 --> 01:07:17,200
Speaker 2: last year, and they somehow got in the playoffs. So yeah,

1332
01:07:17,200 --> 01:07:21,000
Speaker 2: I think they'll they'll show up here, and I think

1333
01:07:21,040 --> 01:07:22,880
Speaker 2: that there's some value going with the Raiders.

1334
01:07:23,480 --> 01:07:25,200
Speaker 1: I mean, they've kind of done this all year. You know,

1335
01:07:25,240 --> 01:07:27,320
Speaker 1: they lose these horrible games and then they come back

1336
01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:30,480
Speaker 1: and they win games after you kind of write them off.

1337
01:07:30,520 --> 01:07:34,120
Speaker 1: So yeah, team, Yeah, Patriots are all kinds of banged up.

1338
01:07:34,720 --> 01:07:38,560
Speaker 1: I'm actually going with the Arizona Cardinals plus one twenty

1339
01:07:38,600 --> 01:07:41,720
Speaker 1: here against the Broncos. This is kind of time when

1340
01:07:42,480 --> 01:07:44,280
Speaker 1: I want to back to the Cardinals. It's when they're on

1341
01:07:44,360 --> 01:07:47,120
Speaker 1: the road. Cliff is actually fourteen Well, the Cardinals are

1342
01:07:47,120 --> 01:07:50,600
Speaker 1: fourteen and eight straight up, sixty four percent on the

1343
01:07:50,720 --> 01:07:55,080
Speaker 1: road under Cliff Kingsbury. So it's the one time where

1344
01:07:55,520 --> 01:07:59,320
Speaker 1: they kind of exceed expectations. This Bronco team is super

1345
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:02,160
Speaker 1: banged up. To Courtland seconds, he's gon to miss another week.

1346
01:08:02,160 --> 01:08:06,240
Speaker 1: He already talked about Russell Wilson and and even Kendall Hinton,

1347
01:08:06,280 --> 01:08:09,520
Speaker 1: who's been filling in at receiver. He's not practicing with

1348
01:08:09,560 --> 01:08:11,520
Speaker 1: a hamstring. So I mean they could be down and

1349
01:08:11,560 --> 01:08:13,439
Speaker 1: they're already down a bunch of running backs, they could

1350
01:08:13,440 --> 01:08:16,800
Speaker 1: be down a bunch of receivers. The one thing that

1351
01:08:16,840 --> 01:08:19,320
Speaker 1: Cardinals tended to do well is funnel the ball away

1352
01:08:19,320 --> 01:08:21,080
Speaker 1: from wide receivers. So I don't think Judy is going

1353
01:08:21,120 --> 01:08:24,280
Speaker 1: to put up another three touchdown game in this spot.

1354
01:08:24,479 --> 01:08:28,000
Speaker 1: And uh, you know this Bronco team, I mean it's

1355
01:08:28,120 --> 01:08:30,040
Speaker 1: you know, they had the good game against the Chiefs,

1356
01:08:30,040 --> 01:08:33,120
Speaker 1: but Russ got injured along the way. I don't trust

1357
01:08:33,160 --> 01:08:35,160
Speaker 1: Brett Rippon to do the same. And I still think

1358
01:08:35,160 --> 01:08:37,760
Speaker 1: the Cardinals have enough talent, you know, with Hopkins and

1359
01:08:37,800 --> 01:08:40,160
Speaker 1: guys like that, and it's essentially going to be a

1360
01:08:40,160 --> 01:08:43,360
Speaker 1: toss up, well scoring game here. I think the Cardinals

1361
01:08:43,400 --> 01:08:46,080
Speaker 1: get it done here as they usually do on the

1362
01:08:46,160 --> 01:08:49,519
Speaker 1: road for whatever reason. So give me Cards plus one twenty.

1363
01:08:50,479 --> 01:08:52,519
Speaker 2: I might go under the Broncos game again. I mean

1364
01:08:52,560 --> 01:08:55,760
Speaker 2: that with the way the defense is playing, both of

1365
01:08:55,760 --> 01:08:59,040
Speaker 2: these offensive lines, by the way, are mass backup quarterbacks

1366
01:08:59,080 --> 01:09:03,240
Speaker 2: most likely, like the Cardinals offensive line, is legitimately a

1367
01:09:03,240 --> 01:09:06,360
Speaker 2: hard show. And now you don't get married to run around,

1368
01:09:06,840 --> 01:09:09,200
Speaker 2: so that, yeah, I don't mind like this, this is

1369
01:09:09,200 --> 01:09:12,439
Speaker 2: a coin flip game. It's the script. Last week, it

1370
01:09:12,560 --> 01:09:14,120
Speaker 2: was the first game, but it was still the script.

1371
01:09:14,120 --> 01:09:17,960
Speaker 2: It was the Broncos losing a really close game, and

1372
01:09:18,439 --> 01:09:21,439
Speaker 2: that probably you'll find a way to maybe lose another

1373
01:09:21,560 --> 01:09:24,599
Speaker 2: This game could be like nine to six. Yeah.

1374
01:09:24,720 --> 01:09:26,720
Speaker 1: The only thing I mean I worry about, like if

1375
01:09:26,800 --> 01:09:28,080
Speaker 1: ripping's starting, you know, yount.

1376
01:09:27,880 --> 01:09:30,920
Speaker 2: Worry about turnovers. Yeah, I mean, but you know you

1377
01:09:30,960 --> 01:09:32,880
Speaker 2: could also have turnovers like on the other side of

1378
01:09:32,880 --> 01:09:34,639
Speaker 2: the field. But yeah, there's more turnover variants here.

1379
01:09:34,960 --> 01:09:37,080
Speaker 1: McCoy the more likely, like mccoye, who'll just get it

1380
01:09:37,080 --> 01:09:38,880
Speaker 1: out quick and average like five yards in a tempt

1381
01:09:38,880 --> 01:09:42,120
Speaker 1: But you know, still have Hopkins, still have Brown, you

1382
01:09:42,200 --> 01:09:46,080
Speaker 1: have some explosion for the Cardinals. But all right, so

1383
01:09:46,160 --> 01:09:49,559
Speaker 1: if we parlay those two, we get about what over

1384
01:09:49,600 --> 01:09:52,519
Speaker 1: a three x payout one hundred gets you back for

1385
01:09:52,760 --> 01:09:57,160
Speaker 1: twenty three twenty plus one hundred, So hopefully we can't

1386
01:09:57,160 --> 01:09:59,160
Speaker 1: I can get back on the board. You've been been

1387
01:09:59,200 --> 01:10:03,519
Speaker 1: over five hundred these to date. Now it's time for

1388
01:10:04,400 --> 01:10:06,400
Speaker 1: the best of the rest. Games that we haven't covered

1389
01:10:06,400 --> 01:10:09,599
Speaker 1: in any other segment, but are still, as they say,

1390
01:10:10,160 --> 01:10:14,000
Speaker 1: meaningful to some That's gonna be a touchdown, but that

1391
01:10:14,080 --> 01:10:17,680
Speaker 1: may be meaningful to some of you, you know what I mean.

1392
01:10:18,120 --> 01:10:18,439
Speaker 2: All right?

1393
01:10:18,479 --> 01:10:21,519
Speaker 1: First up, we got the Eagles at the Bears. Eagles

1394
01:10:21,520 --> 01:10:24,200
Speaker 1: favored by nine on the road, total forty eight and

1395
01:10:24,200 --> 01:10:28,800
Speaker 1: a half. Justin Fields misspractice Wednesday with an illness. Chase

1396
01:10:28,800 --> 01:10:33,040
Speaker 1: Claypool misspractice as well with a leg injury. I believe

1397
01:10:33,080 --> 01:10:36,519
Speaker 1: it is so not really sure what to expect of

1398
01:10:36,560 --> 01:10:38,920
Speaker 1: this Bear offense. Usually you want to fade teams like

1399
01:10:38,960 --> 01:10:40,640
Speaker 1: the Eagles whore just on this on a roll of

1400
01:10:40,640 --> 01:10:43,960
Speaker 1: scoring thirty plus. But I don't know what's going on

1401
01:10:44,000 --> 01:10:46,800
Speaker 1: with the Bears here, So I don't really have much here.

1402
01:10:46,840 --> 01:10:50,559
Speaker 2: But what about you? Yeah, I would lean Bears here,

1403
01:10:51,120 --> 01:10:53,759
Speaker 2: but their defense is so bad. It's an awful spot

1404
01:10:53,760 --> 01:10:56,120
Speaker 2: for the Eagles. Like they blow off the Giants. You know,

1405
01:10:56,120 --> 01:10:59,160
Speaker 2: you get the Cowboys on deck, you're going to Chicago.

1406
01:10:59,160 --> 01:11:02,000
Speaker 2: We talked about some of the Eagles roads struggles. Haven't

1407
01:11:02,000 --> 01:11:04,680
Speaker 2: looked like the same team, and you know last week

1408
01:11:04,680 --> 01:11:06,599
Speaker 2: they get that fourth down pass, so you're just playing

1409
01:11:06,600 --> 01:11:08,519
Speaker 2: from ahead, and that's what you don't want to play

1410
01:11:08,560 --> 01:11:11,280
Speaker 2: the Eagles from behind? So can the Bears keep this close?

1411
01:11:11,320 --> 01:11:14,439
Speaker 2: And the Bears with Fields generally all year, I've just

1412
01:11:14,439 --> 01:11:17,400
Speaker 2: like lost a ton of close games. So they've been

1413
01:11:17,400 --> 01:11:20,519
Speaker 2: able to keep games closed, you know, sneaking back doors

1414
01:11:20,520 --> 01:11:22,880
Speaker 2: and it's just because of him making plays. But can

1415
01:11:22,920 --> 01:11:25,120
Speaker 2: their defense. Get any stops is the question. The defense.

1416
01:11:25,120 --> 01:11:27,599
Speaker 2: I mean, maybe you get guys like you know, Kyler

1417
01:11:27,600 --> 01:11:30,200
Speaker 2: Gordon and Brisker Back. I think they both practice today.

1418
01:11:30,760 --> 01:11:33,799
Speaker 2: But look at the Bears defense, man, I mean, it's

1419
01:11:34,120 --> 01:11:37,120
Speaker 2: it is just look at just if you're a casual

1420
01:11:37,200 --> 01:11:40,760
Speaker 2: NFL fan to just pull up Google Bears depth chart

1421
01:11:41,160 --> 01:11:44,120
Speaker 2: and look at their defense. It doesn't take a rocket

1422
01:11:44,120 --> 01:11:47,439
Speaker 2: side just to know how bad it is. So can

1423
01:11:47,479 --> 01:11:51,760
Speaker 2: they get any stops against the Eagles? I don't know

1424
01:11:51,920 --> 01:11:55,800
Speaker 2: fields plays and Claypool plays. It's not The number is

1425
01:11:55,840 --> 01:11:57,880
Speaker 2: a bit inflated for a bad spot for the Eagles.

1426
01:11:57,920 --> 01:12:00,479
Speaker 2: I had I'd lean Bears. Maybe if it's to ten,

1427
01:12:00,520 --> 01:12:03,920
Speaker 2: I'm definitely pulling. We'll see lean of the Bears watching

1428
01:12:03,960 --> 01:12:06,080
Speaker 2: injury report as of now. Uh.

1429
01:12:06,320 --> 01:12:09,080
Speaker 1: And then we got the Titans at the Chargers. Chargers

1430
01:12:09,080 --> 01:12:14,200
Speaker 1: savory by three at home, the total forty seven and

1431
01:12:14,240 --> 01:12:19,120
Speaker 1: a half. This Titans team just seems just be unraveling

1432
01:12:19,280 --> 01:12:20,160
Speaker 1: a lot of injuries.

1433
01:12:20,240 --> 01:12:21,479
Speaker 2: They are who I thought they were.

1434
01:12:22,840 --> 01:12:24,799
Speaker 1: That's really good these last couple of weeks for them.

1435
01:12:25,400 --> 01:12:28,040
Speaker 2: I haven't had all the Titans fans were flooding. My

1436
01:12:28,160 --> 01:12:33,080
Speaker 2: messages have disappeared after the past couple weeks of fading them. Yeah,

1437
01:12:33,080 --> 01:12:34,760
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the Charters here, but by the way,

1438
01:12:34,800 --> 01:12:37,720
Speaker 2: like the games ending on two have increased in frequency

1439
01:12:37,880 --> 01:12:41,559
Speaker 2: over the past seven years, and because after the extra

1440
01:12:41,600 --> 01:12:43,639
Speaker 2: point has been moved back and the Charter has always

1441
01:12:43,640 --> 01:12:46,320
Speaker 2: played these like weird games, I hate to have them

1442
01:12:46,360 --> 01:12:48,920
Speaker 2: try to win by margin, especially against like the Titans,

1443
01:12:49,320 --> 01:12:52,360
Speaker 2: like they could easily like win this game on you

1444
01:12:52,400 --> 01:12:53,760
Speaker 2: know they tied at the end and go for two

1445
01:12:54,040 --> 01:12:56,320
Speaker 2: by one. So I'm gonna I'm gonna this will be

1446
01:12:56,360 --> 01:12:58,400
Speaker 2: my by the way, instead of lying the two of

1447
01:12:58,479 --> 01:12:59,920
Speaker 2: the lines last week, remember I have money line them

1448
01:12:59,960 --> 01:13:05,320
Speaker 2: with with the Cowboys. Yes, well, I'm gonna do the

1449
01:13:05,360 --> 01:13:08,439
Speaker 2: same thing this week. I'm gonna par money line parlay

1450
01:13:08,439 --> 01:13:11,200
Speaker 2: of the Chiefs with the Chargers. I don't trust the

1451
01:13:11,240 --> 01:13:14,160
Speaker 2: Charges win by more than three here, just ever, and

1452
01:13:14,320 --> 01:13:17,639
Speaker 2: like they'll miss an extra point or something weird'll happen.

1453
01:13:18,120 --> 01:13:20,639
Speaker 2: But I do think that the Titans are sinking ship.

1454
01:13:20,800 --> 01:13:23,639
Speaker 2: So many injuries on the defense. Talked about Denico Aucher,

1455
01:13:23,680 --> 01:13:25,800
Speaker 2: will see if he's back, but their secondary he's had

1456
01:13:25,840 --> 01:13:29,040
Speaker 2: a ton of injuries the offense, so trailing Burks might

1457
01:13:29,080 --> 01:13:32,559
Speaker 2: not be back Still it's just nothing is going right,

1458
01:13:32,560 --> 01:13:35,360
Speaker 2: and I think the Chargers are Look, they're gonna get

1459
01:13:35,400 --> 01:13:38,040
Speaker 2: gashed a bit in the run game, that's for sure.

1460
01:13:38,320 --> 01:13:40,200
Speaker 2: Maybe they'll get a couple of defenders back the O.

1461
01:13:40,240 --> 01:13:42,479
Speaker 2: Their defense really played up last week. I think they

1462
01:13:42,479 --> 01:13:44,240
Speaker 2: can carry that lamentum over. And then I think the

1463
01:13:44,320 --> 01:13:47,599
Speaker 2: Chargers offense is extremely underrated. If you look at their

1464
01:13:47,640 --> 01:13:51,360
Speaker 2: season long metrics, there's obviously looks really poor, But some

1465
01:13:51,400 --> 01:13:53,479
Speaker 2: of those games they didn't have Corey Lindsley, who's so

1466
01:13:53,600 --> 01:13:56,000
Speaker 2: important to this offensive line. One of the reasons I

1467
01:13:56,040 --> 01:13:59,200
Speaker 2: love the Chargers last week. Also, you didn't have you know,

1468
01:13:59,400 --> 01:14:01,840
Speaker 2: Mike william you didn't have Keenan Allen. If you just

1469
01:14:01,880 --> 01:14:04,040
Speaker 2: isolate games when they're both on the field at the

1470
01:14:04,080 --> 01:14:06,720
Speaker 2: same time, it's top five offense ePaper played this year,

1471
01:14:07,200 --> 01:14:09,400
Speaker 2: and you saw that in full effect last week. Also,

1472
01:14:09,840 --> 01:14:13,479
Speaker 2: Justin Herbert wasn't fully healthy for long stretches of this season,

1473
01:14:13,520 --> 01:14:16,920
Speaker 2: and he certainly looked at last week. So I think

1474
01:14:16,920 --> 01:14:20,000
Speaker 2: the Chargers find a way to get this win. I'm

1475
01:14:20,080 --> 01:14:22,719
Speaker 2: in the money line them with the Chiefs and hopefully

1476
01:14:22,720 --> 01:14:25,880
Speaker 2: I don't have the sweat Texans. Texans is the goal

1477
01:14:25,920 --> 01:14:26,360
Speaker 2: line late.

1478
01:14:27,360 --> 01:14:31,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, this Titan defense is kind of falling apart.

1479
01:14:31,280 --> 01:14:32,960
Speaker 1: They're still good against the run, but I just don't

1480
01:14:33,000 --> 01:14:35,840
Speaker 1: think they have enough guys at corner right now to

1481
01:14:36,120 --> 01:14:40,040
Speaker 1: cover this fully healthy Charger team. Like it's a good

1482
01:14:40,120 --> 01:14:42,439
Speaker 1: matchup for Tennessee in terms of, yeah, they can run,

1483
01:14:42,479 --> 01:14:45,800
Speaker 1: the charge is a terrible and rundee. But you know,

1484
01:14:45,800 --> 01:14:47,479
Speaker 1: we saw Derrick Henry go off in the first half

1485
01:14:47,600 --> 01:14:49,840
Speaker 1: last week and it was still a sixteen point game.

1486
01:14:50,439 --> 01:14:54,479
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think this is you know, this is

1487
01:14:54,520 --> 01:14:56,680
Speaker 1: a brable spot, you know, when he's a dog by

1488
01:14:56,760 --> 01:15:00,200
Speaker 1: field goaler more. But this Titan team just I think

1489
01:15:00,240 --> 01:15:02,000
Speaker 1: this Charger team is kind of trending up right now

1490
01:15:02,080 --> 01:15:04,960
Speaker 1: with the injury lucket and health and kind of seems

1491
01:15:05,000 --> 01:15:05,720
Speaker 1: trending the other way.

1492
01:15:06,280 --> 01:15:08,559
Speaker 2: Cook at Joey Bosa back too, for what it's worth.

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01:15:09,160 --> 01:15:11,360
Speaker 1: All Right, That is gonna wrap it up for the

1494
01:15:11,520 --> 01:15:17,559
Speaker 1: week fifteen Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel. Be sure

1495
01:15:17,600 --> 01:15:20,519
Speaker 1: to check out Stucky on Twitter at Stucky two and

1496
01:15:20,600 --> 01:15:22,200
Speaker 1: me at Chris Raybon, and you can find us at

1497
01:15:22,200 --> 01:15:25,120
Speaker 1: those same handles on the free award winning Action Network app,

1498
01:15:25,520 --> 01:15:30,200
Speaker 1: where you can follow our bets and track yours as

1499
01:15:30,240 --> 01:15:34,080
Speaker 1: well Actionnetwork dot com for all of our vetting content

1500
01:15:34,439 --> 01:15:38,400
Speaker 1: and fancy wabs dot com for a DFS tools and models.

1501
01:15:38,680 --> 01:15:50,519
Speaker 1: Until next time, let's get this twenty steady. Action Network

1502
01:15:50,560 --> 01:15:54,240
Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you

1503
01:15:54,280 --> 01:15:57,120
Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty

1504
01:15:57,160 --> 01:15:59,200
Speaker 1: four to seven at one eight hundred gambler