1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,160 Speaker 1: Let's give you something to worry about. It's Armstrong and 2 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:08,119 Speaker 1: Getty extra large, because four hours, simply enough, this is 3 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 1: Armstrong and Getty extra large. I don't know how many 4 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 1: years in a row we've been checking in with Ian 5 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:17,600 Speaker 1: Bremer to see what the biggest risks to the planet are, 6 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 1: but we've been doing it for quite a while. I 7 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 1: really only look forward to three things every year. Number one, 8 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:24,960 Speaker 1: two weeks off at Christmas. Number two, the Master's golf tournament. 9 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: Number three talking to Ian Bremer, the president of your 10 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 1: Asia Group, about the Global Um Global Risks List, the 11 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 1: top risks of three, for instance, and Mr Bremer joins us. Now, Ian, 12 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: how are you happy? Now? You're gonna talk to you guys? 13 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:42,839 Speaker 1: Now this is a podcast, So if you have to 14 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: use your salty language, you can. When we had you 15 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 1: on the radio show once you did drop an s bomb. 16 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 1: You're like a really filthy sailor who got a pH 17 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: d in polly Cy, but kind of like a merchant 18 00:00:55,880 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: marine exactly. We both spent six months in fc SEE 19 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 1: prison and thanks. Meanwhile, I was in the Stychelles, so 20 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, so you can't do much better 21 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 1: than your number one risk and that is a rogue Russia. 22 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 1: Explain that to us. Yeah, Well, I mean, the funny 23 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 1: thing is, the Risk report has a whole bunch of 24 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 1: things that are connected. It's a bunch of individual leaders 25 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: with a lot of power, surrounded by yes men, no 26 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:28,320 Speaker 1: checks and balances, and they can make really bad decisions. 27 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:32,399 Speaker 1: It's the Iranian leadership, it's the Chinese leader, it's the 28 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 1: Russian president, and it's a bunch of technic founders that 29 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 1: have the same sort of challenges, even if occations are 30 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 1: not as momentous on the nuclear front. Putin's number one. 31 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 1: It's pretty clear, and it's the worst decision that's been 32 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: made by any leader on the global stage since the 33 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: wall came down. And and you know, it's basically he's 34 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 1: got a chess player, he's a poker player. He made 35 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 1: a big all in that on a bad hand, and 36 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:01,639 Speaker 1: he's gotten called and now he's in very serious trouble 37 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 1: and he's not going anywhere. He's not gonna be forced 38 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: out of power. So the question is, as this war 39 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 1: doesn't end, but as they can't win, what will Russia 40 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 1: do as the most powerful rogue state globally? And that's 41 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 1: a danger to all of NATO while they are they 42 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: are the biggest nuclear power on the planet, so the 43 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 1: idea of them being you know, beholden to nobody is 44 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:26,080 Speaker 1: pretty troubling. Yeah, And you know, the funny thing is, 45 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: for me, the nuclear weapons strike is the least of 46 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 1: my worries because they you know, the leader is not 47 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 1: looking for armageddon, but it's all the things he can 48 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: do because he has his nuclear weapons, so you know, 49 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 1: fiber strikes, pipeline strikes, cyber attacks, espionage, disinformation. It's hard 50 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:49,640 Speaker 1: to imagine that Putin facing an expanded NATO, a much 51 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:53,079 Speaker 1: stronger Ukraine, and and feeling like he's losing the war 52 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: because he's fighting NATO. Not he's not just fighting Ukraine, 53 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:58,639 Speaker 1: he's fighting all of that support is gonna lash out 54 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 1: against at least for line NATO countries. And it's not 55 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 1: like he's gonna engage. He's not gonna do ballistic missile strikes. 56 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: But when he hits them with cyber and fiber and 57 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 1: the rest, and their massive economic consequences of that and 58 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 1: political disruption, what are they going to do to Putin 59 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 1: and the answers They don't have much more they can 60 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:18,079 Speaker 1: do to p Well and what worries me is that 61 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,359 Speaker 1: the old dodge of dictators and frankly democracies from time 62 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 1: to time too, is that if you've lost your legitimacy domestically, 63 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: you will invent or exacerbate some foreign issue so that 64 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: the folks can rally around you. And Putin, as as 65 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: you've indicated, has made such a horrific decision that ought 66 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: to so diminish his legitimacy as a leader. I mean, 67 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 1: he's going to have to take some extraordinary steps to 68 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 1: get the people to rally around him. In other words, 69 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: he's gonna have to cook up some pretty serious foreign conflicts, 70 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 1: and he's done some incredibly unpopular things. I mean, his 71 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 1: decision to call up an additional three hundred thousand reservists 72 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 1: from the population and throw them into the eat grinder 73 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 1: of the front line. We know there's been a hundred 74 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 1: thousand Russian casualties in this war so far. It hasn't 75 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 1: even hit the one year date, and and not going 76 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 1: to end anytime soon. You know, these parents are not 77 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 1: going to be happy on the ground in Russia, the 78 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,479 Speaker 1: community is not going to be happy so long term. Increasingly, 79 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: people around Putin feel like dead enders. They're folks that 80 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 1: know that, you know, whatever they do, whether this peace 81 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: or whether there's war, they end up in the Hague. 82 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: And and that leads to bad decision making. Hey, speaking 83 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 1: of the folks around Putin, Uh, we have come across 84 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: quite a few accounts of the number of oligarchs and 85 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:41,039 Speaker 1: insiders who have slipped on apparently the very very slippery 86 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 1: floors in Russia and fallen out of windows, for instance, 87 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:48,039 Speaker 1: are committed suicide by shooting themselves ten times. Um, did 88 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 1: you buy those reports? Is that stuff legit? You know 89 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 1: it's about twenty mid tier aliars have have jumped out 90 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:59,919 Speaker 1: of windows, probably already dead. Um. And uh, you know 91 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: the funny that you kind of have to ask yourself, 92 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 1: why doesn't Putin just execute them? I mean, you know, 93 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:09,720 Speaker 1: everybody knows who's responsible for their death. I think, you know, 94 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: maybe a taller dictator might feel more confident. Wow, now 95 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 1: that's analysis. Yeah, exactly how much backing does Putin have 96 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:24,279 Speaker 1: from China at this point or early on? You know 97 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,719 Speaker 1: they were kinda together on this, but are they still 98 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:30,720 Speaker 1: early on? Meaning before the war? Remember that that big 99 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 1: statement everyone talks about when he went to the Olympics. 100 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:37,359 Speaker 1: That was February four, twenty days before they started attacking. Um. 101 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 1: China is not providing any military support to Russia, and 102 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,600 Speaker 1: lord knows the Russians wanted. They're also not breaking any 103 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 1: American sanctions because they don't want secondary sanctions that hit 104 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: Chinese companies. China's growth is not exactly staggering right now. UM, 105 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 1: So the Russians are left with almost no friends. Keep 106 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 1: in mind, when we were fighting the Soviets in the 107 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: Cold War, the world was kind of divided into Europe 108 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:02,160 Speaker 1: was divided it into. Today, the Russians have made in 109 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 1: Ukraine and everyone is either with the West or on 110 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,480 Speaker 1: the sidelines. There's really the only people that are actively 111 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 1: supporting Russia is Belarus, which isn't really a country at 112 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 1: this point. There United Nations mission actually is literally co 113 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:20,359 Speaker 1: located inside the Russian mission. It's kind of pathetic. Um, 114 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 1: the North Koreans who are providing ammunition for the Russians, 115 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 1: and when the North Koreans or the military support that 116 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 1: you have face, you're not doing that well. And then Iran, 117 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 1: which is a rogue state uh in harmony with the 118 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:37,200 Speaker 1: Russians providing a lot of drones and probably ballistic missiles 119 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 1: and that is a danger. But that's about it. That's 120 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:44,160 Speaker 1: all the Russians have at this point, so they're really isolated. 121 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:46,599 Speaker 1: You'll remember in Bali about a month and a half 122 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:48,720 Speaker 1: ago we had the G twenty. The Russians didn't even 123 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:51,039 Speaker 1: show because they knew they were going to be isolated, 124 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,719 Speaker 1: didn't want to be embarrassed. Yeah, no, this is the 125 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 1: global risks fore and not for the next fifteen years. 126 00:06:56,960 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: But um, the question of succession in Russia fascinates me 127 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 1: because anytime he got an oligarch like Putin is so 128 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 1: you know, gathered the power to himself personally, What the 129 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: hell is the future gonna look like when this guy 130 00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 1: finally croaks. Well, it's not going to be someone like 131 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: Alexey Navalny who's languishing in a heavy labor camp right now. 132 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 1: It's not you know, Boris Nemsoft type who was like 133 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 1: a real opposition democrat and was assassinated walking outside the 134 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 1: Kremlin a few years ago. It's probably a person or 135 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: people from around the military complex in Russia. It could 136 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 1: be someone like Progoshon, who is the founder and owner 137 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 1: of the Wagner Group, which is this paramilitary organization that 138 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 1: has tens of thousands of well trained troops that are 139 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: doing some of the damage right now, both on the 140 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 1: ground in Ukraine but also in Libya and Mali in 141 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: other countries. It could be someone like the Minister of Defense. 142 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 1: It's not. In other words, this is a Putinus successor, 143 00:07:58,000 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 1: is not someone who is suddenly going to say, wow, 144 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 1: we need to really open up to the Americans. We 145 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: just got it all wrong. And if we could only 146 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: find a way to engage with those good guys in 147 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 1: the West, and that's that, that's not the way they feel. 148 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 1: They feel like the West has humiliated them intentionally for decades. 149 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 1: So I remember when they had the voulte in there 150 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 1: in China with the weird thing where they came over 151 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 1: and hustled that one old dude out of there. You 152 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 1: tweeted out that she was now the most powerful person 153 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 1: in the world. Explained that, yeah, well, I mean, China's 154 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 1: the second most powerful country in the world's second largest economy, 155 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: technologically not quite a parody with the US, but close 156 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:43,199 Speaker 1: um and Juan Ping has surrounded himself only with loyalists, 157 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 1: and that wasn't true when he became president ten years ago. 158 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 1: Back then, there was a need for consensus building on policy. 159 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 1: You had hardliners, you had technocrats, you had economic pragmatists, 160 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: you had Shanghai faction, you had those that you know 161 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: came up through the Beijing Communist Party. App right, it's 162 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: not true anymore. Now. It's basically you're supporting jan thing. 163 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 1: And the problem with that is he doesn't get the 164 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: same level of information, doesn't benefit from the same level 165 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 1: of internal part up policy debate. And that's that's how 166 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:16,320 Speaker 1: you can move from zero COVID to everybody gets COVID 167 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:19,199 Speaker 1: in a week and the and the Chinese aren't aren't 168 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 1: ready for it. It's because they're not having these thoughtful, 169 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 1: coordinate debates. I mean, you know, China's always been authoritarian um, 170 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 1: but but it hasn't been a closed decision system in 171 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: terms of policy leaders. Now is, and that of course 172 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: makes it a much greater risk on the global stage, 173 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 1: you know, speaking of the zero COVID thing, it's it's 174 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: so easy for those of us who are lovers of 175 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 1: liberty to see the least tremor in China and say, 176 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,840 Speaker 1: look at that resistance to the communists. How much trouble 177 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 1: are they in over the zero COVID shutdown, which costs 178 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:56,439 Speaker 1: them tremendous amounts of revenue both going out and in. 179 00:09:56,600 --> 00:09:59,080 Speaker 1: People don't tend to talk about that, but also caused 180 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 1: a hell of a lot of resent going forward, they 181 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,120 Speaker 1: might see millions die. How big a problem is this 182 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 1: for the communists? Well, they won't see millions die because 183 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 1: they won't admit to it. So far, As of this morning, 184 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:11,640 Speaker 1: the Chinese government said that thirty seven people have died 185 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 1: from COVID in the last month, um, which is uh. 186 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 1: I mean, maybe who knows, maybe they're shooting them after 187 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 1: they die from COVID. There's not It's ridiculous, it's ludicrous. 188 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 1: It's not believable at any level. I mean literally, you know, 189 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 1: you've got some provinces where you've got nine of the 190 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: population that's gotten COVID in the past weeks that they're 191 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 1: probably experiencing hundreds of thousands of death that might be 192 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 1: a million or more, and they're just not going to 193 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,319 Speaker 1: talk about it. And you know, the dead don't protest, 194 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:42,080 Speaker 1: so that's not going to be much of an issue. 195 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 1: And all those people that did protests when they were 196 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:49,559 Speaker 1: angry and really fed up with with zero COVID lockdowns, 197 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: they weren't arrested, but they all got visits from local police. 198 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 1: They were made to sign pledges that said that they 199 00:10:56,720 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 1: understood that what they did was illegal and if they 200 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 1: did it again, there would be very serious consequences. That 201 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 1: lose their jobs, that probably lose their liberties. And you know, 202 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 1: these were not professional activists, they weren't anarchists. They were 203 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 1: just regular people that had enough and they were pretty scared. 204 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 1: I mean, we've spoken with some of them. They were 205 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:17,199 Speaker 1: surprised that the Chinese government was able to find them 206 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 1: and track them down. They shouldn't be, it's a surveillance state, 207 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 1: but they were. And so I personally don't think that 208 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 1: there's any meaningful threat to shijin Ping or to Communist 209 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:30,640 Speaker 1: Party rule as a consequence of all these challenges they've 210 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 1: had with zero COVID going forward. Kind of a general 211 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 1: question before we go back into the particular risks, how 212 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 1: do you grade the the scariness of the world right now. 213 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: I don't want to be guilty of present is um 214 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 1: and you know, ignore the fact that the world has 215 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 1: always been kind of a scary place, but it seems 216 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 1: particularly unsettled right now. UM. I think there are three 217 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:57,200 Speaker 1: different things to think about. The first is that democracies 218 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:01,199 Speaker 1: like the United States and Brazil and like in Europe 219 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,319 Speaker 1: are stronger and more resilient than people think. And everyone 220 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 1: wants to panic and say, oh my god, we could 221 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: be an authoritarian state. It could be fascism that had 222 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 1: their brains destroyed by four years of Trump this kind 223 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 1: of thing, or social media are watching too much cable 224 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 1: um that that's overstated by a long margin, and that 225 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 1: should make us feel much more comfortable about where we are, 226 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 1: how we live, what the future boats um compared to 227 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 1: a lot of what we hear in the headlines um. 228 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 1: On the other hand, we have all these issues I've 229 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,320 Speaker 1: just been talking about where things, especially from a guy 230 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 1: like Putin with six thousand nuclear warheads. I mean, there's 231 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 1: a meaningful chance. It's not a high chance that we 232 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,599 Speaker 1: could see a nuclear war between Russia and Ukraine. I 233 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 1: could launch anook and then we could be fighting the 234 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 1: Russians directly. I'm not saying it's a fifty percent chance, 235 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:48,199 Speaker 1: but it's at least a five percent chance. That's higher 236 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:50,079 Speaker 1: than at any point since the Cuban missile crisis. So 237 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 1: that's a that's a horrible thing to think about and 238 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:57,320 Speaker 1: then more broadly, um, you have the fact that fifty 239 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 1: years of globalization, where the world was getting wealthy and 240 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 1: where a global middle class was getting bigger, we now 241 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 1: get eight billion people on the planet. We just hit 242 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 1: that mark a couple of weeks ago, more than ever before, 243 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 1: and yet a majority of the people on the planet 244 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 1: are getting poorer. We're having more people slipping into poverty, 245 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:17,960 Speaker 1: more women slipping into the informal economy, more kids leaving 246 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: school because of the pandemic, because of the high inflation, 247 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 1: because of the Russia War, because of the supply chain 248 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: challengesn't because of climate change, and long term, we've got 249 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:30,880 Speaker 1: to do something to turn that around. That that is 250 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:33,839 Speaker 1: not sustainable. That's not a one year issue, but that's 251 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:36,719 Speaker 1: like a generational issue. We can't end up in this 252 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 1: fundamental fragmentation between the West and the South. And that's 253 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 1: right now where we're heading. Well, you know, that actually 254 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 1: reminded me of something I'm meant to ask about China, 255 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:49,839 Speaker 1: and that is um And again, this is more long 256 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:54,680 Speaker 1: term than immediate. But China's demographic situation, the aging of 257 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:57,959 Speaker 1: their population is astounding. The more you look into tell 258 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 1: us about that, Well, it's the worst defographic trend of 259 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 1: any major country ever in peace time. At one point 260 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 1: four billion people right now. The population maxed last year 261 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 1: and assume me two years ago, and uh, they are 262 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 1: heading towards the range of projections are between nine million 263 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 1: to five hundred million. By so I mean, in other words, 264 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 1: that population is going to go down by either a 265 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 1: third to two thirds in the course of in the 266 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 1: course of a few generations. That is uh. You know, 267 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 1: you know, for so many years we talked about the 268 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 1: coming China century. Right there's no China century in that 269 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 1: environment there. You might have a China decade, you might 270 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 1: have a China decade. It's not even clear that China 271 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 1: is going to become the largest economy. It's possible they won't. 272 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 1: But if they do, they're not going to maintain a 273 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 1: dominant position at all for long. They can't because the 274 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 1: population just won't wow it, it it won't be there. They 275 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 1: won't be able to grow the way they will need. 276 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 1: So in the United States we deal with a low 277 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 1: birth rates by importing plucky young Venezuelans and folks from 278 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 1: a Central American all over the world. Does China have kids? 279 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 1: We have some kids. You know occasionally, but not not barely. 280 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 1: Two point one per woman, a lot, a lot more 281 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: than in China, is the point. Well, China would have 282 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:27,560 Speaker 1: to change fundamentally though to have any sort of significant 283 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 1: immigration right. Well, first of all, when Jumping took power 284 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 1: ten years ago, the first thing he did as a 285 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 1: major policy was he got rid of the one policy, 286 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 1: had no impact. Then he got rid of the two 287 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 1: child policy, had no impact. So that ain't working. So 288 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 1: you're not you're not getting Chinese women to have more kids. 289 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 1: They refuse um and you know, especially as they get wealthier. Um, 290 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 1: you wouldn't expect that trying to change without massive economic 291 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: intervention that China is not planning on doing. And it's 292 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 1: it's almost inconceivable that they would open up immigration in 293 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 1: a way that would have a meaningful packed on that. 294 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 1: The population is so culturally homogeneous. It's just it's almost inconceivable. 295 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: That's fascinating. Okay, one more thing before we get to 296 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:11,880 Speaker 1: number three on the risk list, which I just blew 297 00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 1: my mind. But back to the theme of loadsome regimes 298 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 1: and how how rock solid they are. The protests in 299 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 1: Iran again dramatic, moving morally powerful, how significant, um bigger 300 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 1: than two thousand nine all over the country, but leaderless, 301 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 1: very hard to shut down as a consequence, but not 302 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 1: really much of a threat to creating a new regime. 303 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 1: And so far the i r C, the Revolutionary Guard 304 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 1: cores UM has not been using UM anywhere near the 305 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 1: level of violence that is available to them. UM. Some 306 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 1: have died, certainly, but I mean we're not talking about 307 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 1: like going in and just clearing out with with guns 308 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:04,199 Speaker 1: and heavy weapons, except in the Kurdish region where they 309 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:06,919 Speaker 1: have done some of that, but not not as much 310 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:09,159 Speaker 1: of a problem for the regime as a whole. Uh, 311 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 1: there's been no willingness to UH to to in any 312 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 1: way compromise on the way that head scarves are mandated 313 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 1: or the way that the religious police can impose their 314 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:26,160 Speaker 1: will in unilateral and arbitrary fashion. So what you have 315 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 1: is a regime that is run by an eighty three 316 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 1: year old who is not very good health, supported by 317 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:34,880 Speaker 1: the military that's been kind of kicking the can and 318 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 1: hoping that this is going to eventually stop. But there's 319 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,399 Speaker 1: willing to deal with this level of instability at the 320 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 1: same time that providing all the support to Russia and 321 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:47,119 Speaker 1: they are getting closer to a nuclear weapon, and what 322 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 1: that means is Iran is not likely to implode. Rather, 323 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 1: we're getting closer to confrontation between Iran, Israel, the Saudiast, 324 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: the United States UM in trying to prevent them from 325 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: becoming a nuclear weapons state. Lovely to look forward to. 326 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 1: I've seen a bunch of different interviews with you on 327 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 1: this this list, so I know this one one of 328 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 1: the one of the headlines was written for the first 329 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 1: time by a robot or a bot or whatever. What's 330 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 1: up with that? Yeah, my my risk was written by 331 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 1: a bot of was called weapons of mass disruption. We 332 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 1: input at the risk and we said what would you 333 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 1: call this? And that's sort of came up with thought 334 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 1: that was pretty good, Like I can fire a bunch 335 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 1: of my people and that's pretty cool. So, you know, 336 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 1: certainly the headline writers for the New York Post, we're 337 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:34,679 Speaker 1: not going to need those guys going forward. What the 338 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 1: risk is about is that the United States, you know, 339 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 1: is creating these tools that actually really disrupt democracy and 340 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 1: we saw that. We saw that in Brazil this weekend. 341 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: You know, I mean the same social media that allowed 342 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 1: Trump to build his popularity and build you know conspiracy 343 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:58,679 Speaker 1: theories that made people really believe that the stolen and 344 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:00,639 Speaker 1: if their patriots they should come out and support him 345 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 1: and occupy the capital. That's exactly the playbook that Bolson 346 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 1: Arrow has been playing for the last year, that the 347 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,120 Speaker 1: only way he can lose the fitz Reagan's using these 348 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 1: algorithms on social media UM to challenge democracy and the 349 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:16,639 Speaker 1: problem in the coming year UM is that increasingly the 350 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 1: power of these AI tools both to be used to 351 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:24,199 Speaker 1: create malware that will help cyber tax and also to 352 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 1: create bots that you and I can't tell aren't human beings. 353 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: And the danger of that in terms of the ability 354 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:38,360 Speaker 1: to promote disinformation for elections around political movements and extremism UM, 355 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,439 Speaker 1: as well as the next time we have a game stopped, 356 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 1: meme stock episode and disrupting markets. We just never dealt 357 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,640 Speaker 1: with anything like this in democracies and we're not ready 358 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,119 Speaker 1: for it. So it's a it's a pretty meaningful danger, 359 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 1: and it's one that you know the companies are aware of, 360 00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 1: but their business models are aligned to maximizing engagement and data, 361 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 1: which means that they really don't want to fix the problem. 362 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 1: For ways to fix the problem, you just verify everybody online, 363 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,840 Speaker 1: but they won't do that because it would destroy their 364 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,679 Speaker 1: market cap. Yeah, I've got to admit that all of 365 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,439 Speaker 1: this stuff is so interesting, and we we bow in 366 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 1: appreciation to your expertise and the rest of it. But 367 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:19,439 Speaker 1: this section in particular just blew my mind the idea 368 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 1: that AI, through its sheer, you know, productivity, it can 369 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 1: churn out so much content that the bulk of the 370 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,439 Speaker 1: content is going to make it harder and harder to 371 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,399 Speaker 1: find the truth. And then you combine that with the 372 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:35,479 Speaker 1: algorithms for its distribution and tweaking people the way they 373 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 1: want to be tweaked. I mean, truth seeking is going 374 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:42,919 Speaker 1: to become It seems it's already hard. Oh yeah, it 375 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:46,119 Speaker 1: seems like it's gonna get damn near impossible. And even 376 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 1: even worse than that, I think empathy seeking is going 377 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 1: to become impossible because we treat you, we still treat 378 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 1: human beings in a different way because we feel like, 379 00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 1: you know, we are they and they deserve a level 380 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:05,680 Speaker 1: of engagement and solicitousness and trust and all the rest. 381 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:09,280 Speaker 1: And suddenly, when we can no longer determine who is 382 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,479 Speaker 1: a human being and who is a bot, it's not 383 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:14,359 Speaker 1: just we get fooled by bots and treat them like humans. 384 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 1: It's also that we stopped treating human beings like humans, 385 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 1: we start treating them like bosts. Never you ever been 386 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 1: on Twitter? Yeah, yeah, exactly. But you know, if you 387 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:28,080 Speaker 1: think that's bad, that's nothing. That's nothing. Can we get 388 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:29,800 Speaker 1: the bots to argue with each other and then just 389 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:31,359 Speaker 1: lock them in a room and leave them alone or 390 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:34,679 Speaker 1: all the way down? I think that's a brilliant idea. 391 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:38,080 Speaker 1: The problem is that they can those bots can fucking multitask. 392 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:41,040 Speaker 1: That's the problem. Yeah. Yeah, Well I was gonna say 393 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 1: I don't give a crap about empathy, but no, so 394 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:48,440 Speaker 1: I so you Uh yeah, I heard you say that 395 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:50,879 Speaker 1: you could. I don't argue with people on Twitter. I 396 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 1: think that's a real waste of your time. But um, 397 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 1: you could end up in an argument with someone and 398 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 1: it is a computer and you don't know it. And 399 00:21:56,800 --> 00:22:00,920 Speaker 1: that's coming this year, and that's coming this year. Ye yeah, 400 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 1: I think that. I think that the advances. The people 401 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,320 Speaker 1: I talked to that are very involved in these new 402 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 1: AI startups, one of whom as a founder, tells me that, 403 00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: you know, the Turing tests will be fundamentally broken. Uh, 404 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 1: sometime in the next twelve months, meaning that you could 405 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:20,919 Speaker 1: no longer with a fifteen minute conversation between you and 406 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:26,639 Speaker 1: something online through texts not videos, Yet UM would not 407 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:28,639 Speaker 1: be able to distinguish whether that was a human being 408 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:31,119 Speaker 1: or not. Well, let me be the first to welcome 409 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:36,200 Speaker 1: our new robot overlords. UM. You know, the Polish people 410 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 1: I think are underappreciating in the United States. Maybe it's 411 00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,880 Speaker 1: because I grew up in Chicago Lands surrounded by Polish Americans, 412 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 1: but I mean the Poles have endured horrors and hardships 413 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,440 Speaker 1: and shown courage the likes of which we could only 414 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 1: hope to imitate over the last century. And you cite 415 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:58,159 Speaker 1: the upcoming Polish parliamentary elections as a likely target of 416 00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:02,440 Speaker 1: Russian aggressive inner parents. What would that look like? Well, 417 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:07,399 Speaker 1: because Poland, after the United States, is providing the most 418 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:12,199 Speaker 1: defense support for the Ukrainians, and they're on the front lines, 419 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 1: and they're arguing for much sharper policies. They're the ones 420 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 1: that want the US to send to do a no 421 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 1: fly zone, to send advanced battle tanks UM and UH 422 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 1: and and aircraft bombers fighters into Ukraine to let them 423 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,639 Speaker 1: like actually take the war to Russia. I mean, this 424 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:35,600 Speaker 1: is massively oscillatory stuff. But the Poles, who have been 425 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 1: housing millions of Ukrainians in their homes over the past year. 426 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 1: I feel like if it wasn't for Ukraine, this war 427 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 1: would be im Poland. And you'll remember that one Ukrainian 428 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:50,080 Speaker 1: air defense missile actually went down in Poland after the 429 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:55,720 Speaker 1: Russians were attacking border targets and killed two Polish farmers, right, So, 430 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,400 Speaker 1: I mean they're part of the war, and and uh, 431 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 1: the response to that aggressiveness, the Russians have a very 432 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:06,640 Speaker 1: strong interest in doing what they can um to undermine 433 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:10,200 Speaker 1: those in Poland that are trying to promote that kind 434 00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:14,080 Speaker 1: of political argument. And so yeah, I think that first 435 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 1: of all, we've seen far more Russian cyber attacks against 436 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,360 Speaker 1: Poland than any other NATO state. Um, just a few 437 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 1: weeks ago, they were engaged in all these attacks against 438 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 1: logistical companies. Some were humanitarians, some were providing devents logistics, 439 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 1: and suddenly they all got hit by Russian Now where 440 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 1: expect we'll see a lot more of that. Wouldn't surprise 441 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 1: me if we see hits on pipelines, critical infrastructure in Poland, 442 00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,879 Speaker 1: as well as espionage efforts I mean, frankly and the 443 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 1: worst you could even imagine a fascination attempts. I mean, 444 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,639 Speaker 1: these are the kinds of things. Remember when the Iranian 445 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:47,120 Speaker 1: has tried to kill John Bolton? Remember that? Yeah, I mean, 446 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:48,680 Speaker 1: you know, they're hard, They're horrible at the stuff. The 447 00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 1: Russians are better at this stuff. So I mean silence 448 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 1: fy versus By and James Bond. But this is the 449 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:57,639 Speaker 1: position the Russians increasingly see themselves. So you put a 450 00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 1: nuclear exchange at five per cent, Well, where do you 451 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,439 Speaker 1: put to China invading Taiwan for the next year, in 452 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:11,840 Speaker 1: the next year functionally at zero? I mean, yeah, long term, 453 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:16,400 Speaker 1: it's a threat. In there were Taiwanese presidential elections. If 454 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:20,679 Speaker 1: the Chiwanese were to elect someone who supported independence, that 455 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:24,159 Speaker 1: would be a much greater risk scenario. But for now, 456 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:27,320 Speaker 1: Taiwan is so economically critical to both the Americans and 457 00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,160 Speaker 1: the Chinese we really don't want to fight over Um. 458 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 1: Here's the question. A guy like you, the first thing 459 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:34,840 Speaker 1: you do in the morning is probably a feed moose 460 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,399 Speaker 1: your dog. But after that, what do you check for? 461 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:43,160 Speaker 1: What's yours demanding? Little fuck? Yeah? What's your first uh 462 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 1: choice to look at the headline New York Times Financial Time. 463 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,200 Speaker 1: Where where do you look first? Actually, believe it or not, 464 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:55,040 Speaker 1: it's probably thirty minutes of in the background listening to 465 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 1: NPR Morning Edition while I'm going about my morning of blutions. 466 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 1: Got you yours. It's just such a tradition. I love radio. 467 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 1: I like listening to you know, to baseball on the radio. 468 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,400 Speaker 1: Just do something about it that I find deeply relaxed. 469 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 1: You're aware of that there are liberals. I they are liberals. 470 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 1: They are. Yeah, as it turns out, yes they are, clearly. 471 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,359 Speaker 1: But my shows on TBS, for Christ's sake, and I 472 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:30,360 Speaker 1: had Steve Bannon on, it didn't stop me there you go. Well, hey, congratulations, 473 00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:35,320 Speaker 1: I just saw years in the Eurasia group, and we 474 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 1: we enjoy the report every year thirty well twenty five 475 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,159 Speaker 1: years as the talk show, the arm Strong Show. Yeah, 476 00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:48,240 Speaker 1: we're we're common law married in most states, I think us. Yeah, 477 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 1: but anyway, it's always a pleasure. I wish we had 478 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,359 Speaker 1: time to talk about some of the other points, like 479 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:56,119 Speaker 1: water stress, although the radio ranches underwater currently now, so 480 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 1: that's not going to be as top of mind for folks. 481 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:01,959 Speaker 1: But um, great to talk to you. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, 482 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 1: but let's do it again soon. Thanks a million, whenever 483 00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:06,200 Speaker 1: you want. Hey, great talk you guys. All right, thanks. 484 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,240 Speaker 1: He wouldn't answer. He didn't give me a straight answer 485 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 1: on the how sky of the world is clearly dodging. 486 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,439 Speaker 1: It's because he's building. You know how people have a 487 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:21,400 Speaker 1: panic room. He's got a panic palace, twenty stories underground, impenetrable, 488 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 1: built entirely of titanium and diamonds. I go back and 489 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 1: forth in this in my own mind. Actually, Like there's 490 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:31,800 Speaker 1: a new book out about uh Reagan in the State 491 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:33,880 Speaker 1: of Things between the United States and the Soviet Union 492 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:35,960 Speaker 1: in the eighties, and I read them thing I yeah, yeah, yeah, 493 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,000 Speaker 1: I don't remember that, or I was too young to 494 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,359 Speaker 1: like fully appreciate it. Are you look at night or whatever. 495 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:44,679 Speaker 1: On the other hand, people like Henry Kissinger, who has 496 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 1: been around a hundred years, say this is unsettled now 497 00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 1: since World War Two on the global stage. So yeah, 498 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:54,639 Speaker 1: and I think he would Ian would agree. And he 499 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,439 Speaker 1: made reference to this that your rogue states of the 500 00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 1: past could stir up some pretty serious ship, but they 501 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:04,639 Speaker 1: didn't have nuclear weapons like RAN's gonna have in a 502 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 1: cup of coffee or so, and you know, in in 503 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:13,480 Speaker 1: North Korea, I'm convinced North Korea is overrated as a 504 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 1: global threat. Honestly, dopey little hermit kingdom only does his 505 00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,960 Speaker 1: generate you know, noise so that he can tell his 506 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,440 Speaker 1: his people, look, we're under threat, keep me as your dictator, 507 00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,640 Speaker 1: and then try to find a grain of rice to eat. Um. 508 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,879 Speaker 1: But you know, some of these other regimes, they definitely 509 00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:35,640 Speaker 1: heightened the tension Pakistan. You know, talk about underrated regimes 510 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:40,479 Speaker 1: for for instability Pakistan, and they're hanging by a thread. 511 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:45,040 Speaker 1: That government anyway, extra large