1 00:00:15,370 --> 00:00:22,490 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hello, dear listeners. Before we dive into another cautionary tale, 2 00:00:22,570 --> 00:00:25,410 Speaker 1: I wanted to let you know that I'm taking your questions. 3 00:00:25,770 --> 00:00:28,010 Speaker 1: Do you have any queries about one of the stories 4 00:00:28,050 --> 00:00:31,210 Speaker 1: we've covered? Are you curious about how we make the show, 5 00:00:31,690 --> 00:00:34,010 Speaker 1: or is there anything else I can help with. I 6 00:00:34,090 --> 00:00:36,690 Speaker 1: want to hear from you, so send any questions you 7 00:00:36,770 --> 00:00:39,330 Speaker 1: might have, however big or small, and I'll do my 8 00:00:39,370 --> 00:00:41,690 Speaker 1: best to answer them in a special Q and A 9 00:00:41,850 --> 00:00:44,370 Speaker 1: episode when you get in touch. 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You could also 19 00:01:12,810 --> 00:01:15,570 Speaker 1: find the email address and number in our show notes. 20 00:01:16,210 --> 00:01:23,850 Speaker 1: And now on with the episode. Denise Milani was a 21 00:01:23,930 --> 00:01:27,610 Speaker 1: thirty two year old Check swimwear model. Paul Frampton was 22 00:01:27,650 --> 00:01:31,370 Speaker 1: a divorced particle physicist more than twice her age. What 23 00:01:31,490 --> 00:01:34,690 Speaker 1: happened next was a tale as old as time they 24 00:01:34,730 --> 00:01:39,090 Speaker 1: met online. She send messages by turns steamy and adoring. 25 00:01:39,530 --> 00:01:42,050 Speaker 1: They arranged to meet in Bolivia, where she was doing 26 00:01:42,050 --> 00:01:46,690 Speaker 1: a photo shoot. Alas when Professor Frampton arrived in Lapaz 27 00:01:46,890 --> 00:01:49,050 Speaker 1: to meet her face to face for the first time, 28 00:01:49,450 --> 00:01:52,090 Speaker 1: she had had to dash to another shoot in Europe. 29 00:01:52,450 --> 00:01:55,370 Speaker 1: Could she meet him in Brussels instead? And would he 30 00:01:55,450 --> 00:01:59,930 Speaker 1: mind terribly collecting an empty suitcase of hers from Lapaz 31 00:02:00,330 --> 00:02:05,010 Speaker 1: and bringing it with him. I'm Tim Harford, and you're 32 00:02:05,050 --> 00:02:31,370 Speaker 1: listening to cautionary Tales. This is another of our cautionary conversations. 33 00:02:31,650 --> 00:02:35,250 Speaker 1: I'll be discussing a story of disaster, or in this case, 34 00:02:35,290 --> 00:02:38,010 Speaker 1: a whole class of stories, and I'll attempt to learn 35 00:02:38,090 --> 00:02:41,210 Speaker 1: some lessons with the help of an expert. And today 36 00:02:41,290 --> 00:02:44,810 Speaker 1: I am beyond thrilled because I'm joined by Maria Knakova, 37 00:02:45,050 --> 00:02:48,970 Speaker 1: one of the most exciting nonfiction writers working today. Maria 38 00:02:49,050 --> 00:02:52,210 Speaker 1: studied at Harvard and Columbia as a PhD in psychology. 39 00:02:52,450 --> 00:02:54,970 Speaker 1: Has written for The Atlantic, The New York Times, and 40 00:02:55,010 --> 00:02:58,370 Speaker 1: The New Yorker. Is a New York Times best selling author. Oh, 41 00:02:58,450 --> 00:03:00,970 Speaker 1: and by the way, she's also spent some time as 42 00:03:00,970 --> 00:03:05,130 Speaker 1: a professional poker player. Maria's first book was Mastermind, How 43 00:03:05,170 --> 00:03:07,930 Speaker 1: to Think Like Sherlock Holmes, and her most recent book 44 00:03:08,050 --> 00:03:11,970 Speaker 1: is The Brain Melting Brilliant The Biggest Bluff. But today 45 00:03:12,010 --> 00:03:14,610 Speaker 1: I think we may linger on her second book, The 46 00:03:14,730 --> 00:03:18,410 Speaker 1: Confidence Game. Maria, welcome to cause Me Tales. Thanks so 47 00:03:18,490 --> 00:03:20,130 Speaker 1: much for having me to him. It's always such a 48 00:03:20,130 --> 00:03:22,850 Speaker 1: pleasure at talking to you. Well, the pleasure is all mine. 49 00:03:22,930 --> 00:03:26,170 Speaker 1: And well, gosh, Denise Milani and Paul Frampton. We should 50 00:03:26,210 --> 00:03:28,930 Speaker 1: probably make it clear early on the real Denise Milani 51 00:03:29,050 --> 00:03:32,250 Speaker 1: did not, in fact strike up a relationship with Professor Frampton. No, 52 00:03:32,490 --> 00:03:35,210 Speaker 1: she did not, and she was shocked when she found 53 00:03:35,250 --> 00:03:37,570 Speaker 1: out that she was in the middle of all of this, 54 00:03:38,090 --> 00:03:41,450 Speaker 1: and gave some very funny press conferences where she denied 55 00:03:41,490 --> 00:03:45,450 Speaker 1: all knowledge of Paul Frampton. Because how often when you 56 00:03:45,490 --> 00:03:49,450 Speaker 1: meet a supermodel online, is it really that supermodel? I 57 00:03:49,490 --> 00:03:52,290 Speaker 1: guess I've never met anybody even pretending to be a 58 00:03:52,370 --> 00:03:55,090 Speaker 1: supermodel online, Although I have met a few people pretending 59 00:03:55,130 --> 00:03:57,810 Speaker 1: to be a crown Prince of Nigeria, I haven't given 60 00:03:57,850 --> 00:04:01,650 Speaker 1: people any detail about how this story unfolds. But from 61 00:04:01,690 --> 00:04:04,530 Speaker 1: what I've said already, it's obvious from the outside what 62 00:04:04,770 --> 00:04:07,370 Speaker 1: is going to happen, but it wasn't obvious to Paul Frampton. 63 00:04:07,490 --> 00:04:09,770 Speaker 1: And he was a very smart guy. He was a 64 00:04:09,850 --> 00:04:12,250 Speaker 1: very smart guy, but he was very smart in a 65 00:04:12,370 --> 00:04:17,090 Speaker 1: very different way. Right physicist, tenured professor, has theories and 66 00:04:17,250 --> 00:04:20,250 Speaker 1: has always been lauded for his brilliance from the time 67 00:04:20,250 --> 00:04:23,050 Speaker 1: he's a little boy, and everyone clearly tells him how 68 00:04:23,090 --> 00:04:26,450 Speaker 1: brilliant he is. Because he has tenure at UNC Chapel 69 00:04:26,530 --> 00:04:29,930 Speaker 1: Hill and he is doing well and publishing papers, and 70 00:04:30,050 --> 00:04:33,650 Speaker 1: he's admired, and he's divorced. One of the reasons he's 71 00:04:33,650 --> 00:04:38,330 Speaker 1: divorced is because, as his ex wife puts it, he's 72 00:04:38,410 --> 00:04:41,730 Speaker 1: like a child. And I think this is very crucial. 73 00:04:41,810 --> 00:04:44,810 Speaker 1: He has a very very high opinion of himself, which 74 00:04:44,890 --> 00:04:47,290 Speaker 1: is something that we will come back to. You will 75 00:04:47,370 --> 00:04:51,490 Speaker 1: not find a supermodel on a Mere Mortals dating site, 76 00:04:51,810 --> 00:04:55,690 Speaker 1: and if she's forty years younger than you are and 77 00:04:56,210 --> 00:05:00,890 Speaker 1: you're not Harrison Ford, then chances are that's probably not 78 00:05:00,930 --> 00:05:03,930 Speaker 1: who you think it is. Yea. And yet, and yet, 79 00:05:04,810 --> 00:05:08,090 Speaker 1: when you think so highly of yourself, when you think, oh, 80 00:05:08,130 --> 00:05:10,850 Speaker 1: I'm this brilliant man. She must be attracted to my mind. 81 00:05:11,410 --> 00:05:15,730 Speaker 1: And when you lack that common sense, that skepticism, that 82 00:05:16,330 --> 00:05:19,570 Speaker 1: inedibility that I think a lot of people now have 83 00:05:19,730 --> 00:05:23,130 Speaker 1: when they are online natives. But when you're over a 84 00:05:23,170 --> 00:05:25,410 Speaker 1: certain age, you're not an online native. This is something 85 00:05:25,450 --> 00:05:28,010 Speaker 1: that's relatively new to you. I think a lot of 86 00:05:28,050 --> 00:05:33,610 Speaker 1: that skepticism stops. You describe this story very vividly in 87 00:05:33,650 --> 00:05:35,530 Speaker 1: the Confidence Game. What are the points you make is 88 00:05:35,570 --> 00:05:41,410 Speaker 1: that con artists are quite good at making people feel special. Yeah. 89 00:05:41,410 --> 00:05:45,250 Speaker 1: So Paul Frampton his a tenured professor, he's a brilliant man, 90 00:05:45,290 --> 00:05:48,530 Speaker 1: and he's an unusual character. But we all have that 91 00:05:48,570 --> 00:05:52,450 Speaker 1: capacity to view ourselves as special in some way, absolutely, 92 00:05:52,490 --> 00:05:55,770 Speaker 1: and that is I think the brilliant thing that the 93 00:05:55,810 --> 00:06:01,250 Speaker 1: best con artists do. They figure out why you're special 94 00:06:01,290 --> 00:06:04,210 Speaker 1: to yourself, right, what is it about you that you 95 00:06:04,250 --> 00:06:06,530 Speaker 1: think is unique? And they mirror it back to you 96 00:06:06,650 --> 00:06:09,570 Speaker 1: and then some because we're the center of our own movie, 97 00:06:09,690 --> 00:06:13,490 Speaker 1: we're our protagonist. But we also don't see the world objectively. 98 00:06:13,530 --> 00:06:16,050 Speaker 1: We think we do. We think that we're all objective, 99 00:06:16,090 --> 00:06:18,290 Speaker 1: but we see it through our own lens, through our 100 00:06:18,290 --> 00:06:21,370 Speaker 1: own little pink colored glasses. And yes, I'm using the 101 00:06:21,370 --> 00:06:24,490 Speaker 1: cliche of the rose colored glasses, but I'm doing that 102 00:06:24,530 --> 00:06:27,930 Speaker 1: for a reason, because what the psychological research shows is 103 00:06:27,970 --> 00:06:31,370 Speaker 1: that the vast majority of people have this optimism bias 104 00:06:31,370 --> 00:06:34,090 Speaker 1: about the world and about themselves. You think you're more 105 00:06:34,130 --> 00:06:36,770 Speaker 1: intelligent than average, you think you're slightly better at looking 106 00:06:36,770 --> 00:06:40,650 Speaker 1: than average, you're nicer than average, and then on negative traits, 107 00:06:40,730 --> 00:06:42,850 Speaker 1: you think that you're oh, definitely, you're not even close 108 00:06:42,890 --> 00:06:45,570 Speaker 1: to average. You're much lower on all the negative traits. 109 00:06:45,690 --> 00:06:50,090 Speaker 1: All of those things you lack completely. And con artists 110 00:06:50,130 --> 00:06:53,850 Speaker 1: are really good at listening to you, at figuring out 111 00:06:53,890 --> 00:06:57,050 Speaker 1: what your biases are, what your hopes are, how you 112 00:06:57,050 --> 00:06:59,730 Speaker 1: see yourself, how you see your world, and then they 113 00:06:59,770 --> 00:07:01,530 Speaker 1: mirror it back to you. And of course you believe 114 00:07:01,770 --> 00:07:05,530 Speaker 1: because it's your version of reality. And so there are 115 00:07:05,610 --> 00:07:07,610 Speaker 1: so many cases that are just if you tweak the 116 00:07:07,650 --> 00:07:11,050 Speaker 1: details slightly, it could happen to you. And online dating, 117 00:07:11,250 --> 00:07:14,810 Speaker 1: when people pull out your hard strings, you don't necessarily 118 00:07:14,810 --> 00:07:18,330 Speaker 1: stop to think weight is this a con? You say, 119 00:07:18,890 --> 00:07:21,090 Speaker 1: I've been looking for a love for so long. I'm 120 00:07:21,170 --> 00:07:23,930 Speaker 1: so glad that here's someone who finally sees the real me, 121 00:07:24,370 --> 00:07:27,530 Speaker 1: who appreciates the real me who understands the real meat. 122 00:07:28,010 --> 00:07:30,450 Speaker 1: This is what I deserve, this is what I've been 123 00:07:30,490 --> 00:07:34,570 Speaker 1: working for, and then the penny never drops. Yeah, I 124 00:07:34,650 --> 00:07:37,770 Speaker 1: mean quite struck. I've been interested in chat bots. Chatbots 125 00:07:37,930 --> 00:07:40,050 Speaker 1: work very well in certain environments, and one of the 126 00:07:40,130 --> 00:07:43,450 Speaker 1: environments they work well in is online dating. Chatbots are 127 00:07:43,490 --> 00:07:46,290 Speaker 1: really good at flirting, they're really good at sexting. Yeah, 128 00:07:46,530 --> 00:07:48,810 Speaker 1: because when you're in the middle of that and you're 129 00:07:48,850 --> 00:07:51,690 Speaker 1: just not thinking clearly, wishful thinking really really takes over. 130 00:07:51,890 --> 00:07:55,130 Speaker 1: It's emotional. This is like the most emotional thing that exists, right, 131 00:07:55,170 --> 00:07:59,090 Speaker 1: it's love. It's preying on something that's no longer logical. 132 00:07:59,130 --> 00:08:01,690 Speaker 1: And the con artists first thing they want to do 133 00:08:01,850 --> 00:08:04,570 Speaker 1: is get at your emotions because those parts of our 134 00:08:04,610 --> 00:08:07,610 Speaker 1: brain are at odds constantly. Yeah, And I mean I've 135 00:08:07,610 --> 00:08:10,330 Speaker 1: seen the photos of Denise Melanie. She's a very beautiful 136 00:08:10,330 --> 00:08:13,530 Speaker 1: woman that she is. So we should take the story 137 00:08:13,530 --> 00:08:16,210 Speaker 1: of Paul Frampton forward a bit. He's in Lapaz. He 138 00:08:16,250 --> 00:08:19,610 Speaker 1: gets this message from somebody he believes is Denise Milani 139 00:08:19,850 --> 00:08:21,930 Speaker 1: who is flirting with him, and he's told to pick 140 00:08:22,010 --> 00:08:24,930 Speaker 1: up this suitcase and he meets some guy outside the 141 00:08:24,970 --> 00:08:28,570 Speaker 1: hotel right in a dark alley, and the guy hands 142 00:08:28,650 --> 00:08:32,210 Speaker 1: him not a designer bag, not like this luxury suitcase 143 00:08:32,290 --> 00:08:35,290 Speaker 1: that you would think someone like Denise Melani would travel with, 144 00:08:35,450 --> 00:08:39,810 Speaker 1: but just a nondescript, empty black duffel. This thing probably 145 00:08:39,850 --> 00:08:43,210 Speaker 1: costs two dollars. He takes this empty bag and he 146 00:08:43,290 --> 00:08:47,250 Speaker 1: stuffs his dirty laundry into it and decides, Okay, great, 147 00:08:47,410 --> 00:08:50,850 Speaker 1: let's go to the airport. Great idea. But a friend 148 00:08:50,890 --> 00:08:54,530 Speaker 1: of his is saying, Paul, there are drugs in the 149 00:08:54,610 --> 00:08:57,170 Speaker 1: learning of this bag, but he can't accept that information 150 00:08:57,210 --> 00:08:59,370 Speaker 1: that's coming in. Yeah. That's one of the things that 151 00:08:59,570 --> 00:09:02,690 Speaker 1: over and over and over in all of these stories 152 00:09:02,690 --> 00:09:05,290 Speaker 1: of Connor to send their victims that have looked at 153 00:09:05,330 --> 00:09:10,370 Speaker 1: over the years, it's a really common refrain where people 154 00:09:10,490 --> 00:09:13,330 Speaker 1: point out the red flags. But when you're in it, 155 00:09:13,930 --> 00:09:19,650 Speaker 1: when you're the one who's emotionally invested, you dismiss them. 156 00:09:19,730 --> 00:09:21,850 Speaker 1: You say no, no, no, no, that's not a red flag, 157 00:09:22,090 --> 00:09:25,810 Speaker 1: and then you can coct these elaborate tales about why 158 00:09:26,410 --> 00:09:29,330 Speaker 1: this is actually not a red flag. If Denise Melanie 159 00:09:29,370 --> 00:09:31,930 Speaker 1: were a con artist, she would never be so stupid 160 00:09:31,970 --> 00:09:34,170 Speaker 1: as to give me a bag full of drugs, because 161 00:09:34,210 --> 00:09:38,130 Speaker 1: obviously I'd suspect that and not do that because I'm 162 00:09:38,170 --> 00:09:41,250 Speaker 1: not an idiot. That sounds very stupid what I'm saying it, 163 00:09:41,370 --> 00:09:44,490 Speaker 1: but that's what goes on in people's minds. What's the 164 00:09:44,490 --> 00:09:47,170 Speaker 1: moment when he starts to realize that things might be 165 00:09:47,210 --> 00:09:50,370 Speaker 1: about to get difficult for him? He successfully flies from 166 00:09:50,370 --> 00:09:53,490 Speaker 1: Bolivia to Buenos Aires. So he's been in the airport 167 00:09:53,530 --> 00:09:55,650 Speaker 1: at this point for I believe thirty six hours something 168 00:09:55,690 --> 00:09:58,810 Speaker 1: like that, and Denise has been promising to send these 169 00:09:58,810 --> 00:10:01,250 Speaker 1: tickets to Brussels and they just aren't coming. And so 170 00:10:01,330 --> 00:10:03,890 Speaker 1: finally his friend, who's a very good friend, sends him 171 00:10:03,970 --> 00:10:07,650 Speaker 1: a ticket home, not to Brussels. And Paul's like, okay, fine, 172 00:10:07,650 --> 00:10:09,410 Speaker 1: I'll take this ticket because I'm sick of being in 173 00:10:09,410 --> 00:10:12,130 Speaker 1: the airport, but I will meet the love of my 174 00:10:12,210 --> 00:10:15,610 Speaker 1: life soon. And he sits waiting for his flight and 175 00:10:15,730 --> 00:10:18,170 Speaker 1: they announce his name. When they announce my name, my 176 00:10:18,210 --> 00:10:20,730 Speaker 1: first reaction is oh shit, like what's wrong? Right of 177 00:10:20,810 --> 00:10:23,730 Speaker 1: what happened? His reaction is, oh, I'm getting upgraded to 178 00:10:23,770 --> 00:10:26,250 Speaker 1: first class. That's what he thinks, because that's how you 179 00:10:26,290 --> 00:10:29,290 Speaker 1: treat professors. Because that's how you treat professors. So his 180 00:10:29,410 --> 00:10:32,730 Speaker 1: reaction isn't there's something potentially wrong. His reaction is I 181 00:10:32,810 --> 00:10:34,970 Speaker 1: deserve this, and things always happened to the people who 182 00:10:35,050 --> 00:10:36,850 Speaker 1: deserve them, which is why Denise is waiting for me. 183 00:10:37,010 --> 00:10:39,410 Speaker 1: I'm getting upgraded and all these wonderful things are happening. 184 00:10:39,530 --> 00:10:43,290 Speaker 1: It is not an upgrade. It is actually a detention 185 00:10:43,690 --> 00:10:47,530 Speaker 1: with a lovely police escort because, as we all knew, 186 00:10:47,730 --> 00:10:50,650 Speaker 1: there are drugs in the lining of the bag, as 187 00:10:50,690 --> 00:10:53,930 Speaker 1: his friend has told him, and even still he thinks 188 00:10:53,970 --> 00:10:57,290 Speaker 1: it's funny, he thinks it's a joke. Just the level 189 00:10:57,410 --> 00:11:01,490 Speaker 1: of disconnect with reality is truly mind boggling at that point. 190 00:11:01,690 --> 00:11:06,170 Speaker 1: And it's not until he's actually in jail and in 191 00:11:06,210 --> 00:11:11,010 Speaker 1: a cell and he realized that there are very harsh 192 00:11:11,010 --> 00:11:16,250 Speaker 1: penalties for drug smuggling when you're stuck in Argentina. That's 193 00:11:16,290 --> 00:11:19,250 Speaker 1: when he says, oh, maybe something's wrong. And then Denise Mlanney, 194 00:11:19,370 --> 00:11:22,890 Speaker 1: the real Denise mlani appears on television saying that ain't me. 195 00:11:23,450 --> 00:11:26,530 Speaker 1: And when he sees that, it's one of those moments 196 00:11:26,530 --> 00:11:30,290 Speaker 1: where he's a little bit heartbroken because probably even in jail, 197 00:11:30,730 --> 00:11:34,370 Speaker 1: he still harbored the fantasy that at least he did 198 00:11:34,370 --> 00:11:38,650 Speaker 1: this for Denise there's a personal angle here for me, 199 00:11:38,730 --> 00:11:42,210 Speaker 1: because Paul Frampton is actually well was friends with my 200 00:11:42,290 --> 00:11:45,450 Speaker 1: late father. They studied physics together and they kept in touch. 201 00:11:46,090 --> 00:11:49,330 Speaker 1: When I read this and talked to my father and 202 00:11:49,370 --> 00:11:52,010 Speaker 1: found out this had happened to Paul and that he 203 00:11:51,450 --> 00:11:56,050 Speaker 1: was he was in jail in Argentina, my natural reaction was, oh, 204 00:11:56,170 --> 00:11:59,290 Speaker 1: old physicists are vulnerable people. I need to look out 205 00:11:59,290 --> 00:12:01,410 Speaker 1: for my dad. But actually, then I think maybe that's 206 00:12:01,450 --> 00:12:03,530 Speaker 1: the wrong reaction. Maybe the reaction should have been I 207 00:12:03,610 --> 00:12:07,330 Speaker 1: need to think about myself, because it's not just elderly 208 00:12:07,330 --> 00:12:11,450 Speaker 1: physicists who get targeted by we'll be talked. Yeah, I 209 00:12:11,490 --> 00:12:14,210 Speaker 1: think that that is the wrong lesson because while Paul 210 00:12:14,490 --> 00:12:17,770 Speaker 1: is a very unusual person, romance cons and cat fishing 211 00:12:17,850 --> 00:12:21,770 Speaker 1: scams and those types of things, they really happened to anyone. 212 00:12:22,090 --> 00:12:25,330 Speaker 1: Someone I knew from childhood. An old friend of mine 213 00:12:25,490 --> 00:12:29,570 Speaker 1: who has since gone on to a very successful career. 214 00:12:30,090 --> 00:12:36,410 Speaker 1: She met someone online and he was a medical student, brilliant, 215 00:12:36,690 --> 00:12:40,050 Speaker 1: worked with all these Nobel prize winning people. He didn't 216 00:12:40,090 --> 00:12:42,250 Speaker 1: seem to have any friends of his own. She never 217 00:12:42,330 --> 00:12:45,050 Speaker 1: met his family, but all of her friends loved him 218 00:12:45,090 --> 00:12:48,330 Speaker 1: at first, and everything seemed hunky dory, and then he 219 00:12:48,450 --> 00:12:52,330 Speaker 1: became more and more controlling. Anyway, long story short, because 220 00:12:52,330 --> 00:12:54,690 Speaker 1: it's not about him. He was a cone artist and 221 00:12:54,810 --> 00:12:56,730 Speaker 1: his name was not what he said it was. He 222 00:12:56,770 --> 00:12:58,530 Speaker 1: didn't go to the school he said he went to. 223 00:12:59,010 --> 00:13:01,930 Speaker 1: He had forged IDs, he'd forged everything. She was living 224 00:13:01,970 --> 00:13:06,610 Speaker 1: with a complete stranger, and she almost married him. And 225 00:13:06,730 --> 00:13:08,890 Speaker 1: she's a very intelligent person who, as I say, is 226 00:13:09,130 --> 00:13:12,410 Speaker 1: very successful at what she does. And if you look 227 00:13:12,410 --> 00:13:15,330 Speaker 1: at her, she's not Paul Frampton. You would say she's smart, 228 00:13:15,570 --> 00:13:19,010 Speaker 1: she's savvy, and yet in this particular case, it didn't 229 00:13:19,010 --> 00:13:22,770 Speaker 1: matter because she was in love. Yeah, and that's the rub, right, 230 00:13:23,130 --> 00:13:36,450 Speaker 1: you think, hallelujah, cautionary tales will be back after the break. 231 00:13:46,410 --> 00:13:48,610 Speaker 1: You've got to laugh about Paul Frampton, even though it's 232 00:13:48,610 --> 00:13:51,770 Speaker 1: also very sad. But she the more I reread The 233 00:13:51,810 --> 00:13:55,450 Speaker 1: Confidence Game, the more I thought, these are not funny, 234 00:13:55,650 --> 00:13:59,410 Speaker 1: These are tragedies, These are heartrending betrayals, are very sad story. 235 00:13:59,490 --> 00:14:03,770 Speaker 1: I agree. As an aside to another story, also from 236 00:14:03,810 --> 00:14:07,850 Speaker 1: The Confidence Game, that was also crazy, the Knodler Art fraud, 237 00:14:08,130 --> 00:14:11,250 Speaker 1: one of the biggest arts of the century. A fraudulent 238 00:14:11,490 --> 00:14:13,970 Speaker 1: Jackson Pollock, and the woman who was in charge of 239 00:14:13,970 --> 00:14:17,570 Speaker 1: the gallery, Ann Freedman, had this Pollock hanging in her 240 00:14:17,610 --> 00:14:21,730 Speaker 1: apartment and at some point someone pointed out that, hey, 241 00:14:22,290 --> 00:14:26,410 Speaker 1: Pollock's signature is misspelled, and you would think that that's 242 00:14:26,410 --> 00:14:28,930 Speaker 1: a red flag, right, And she said, no, no, it 243 00:14:28,930 --> 00:14:32,210 Speaker 1: means it's authentic even more because this wasn't a misspelling, 244 00:14:32,530 --> 00:14:34,970 Speaker 1: and she had this whole story about how he must 245 00:14:34,970 --> 00:14:38,410 Speaker 1: have lifted the brush. Then no forger would be stupid 246 00:14:38,490 --> 00:14:42,090 Speaker 1: enough to misspell Pollock. So this is clearly a real painting. 247 00:14:42,330 --> 00:14:44,410 Speaker 1: And the fact that someone could have pointed this out 248 00:14:44,410 --> 00:14:47,170 Speaker 1: to her and she concocted this whole explanation is just 249 00:14:47,370 --> 00:14:51,050 Speaker 1: also crazy. But people do this over and over, intelligent people. 250 00:14:51,450 --> 00:14:53,730 Speaker 1: One of the things that body struck me reading that 251 00:14:53,850 --> 00:14:56,970 Speaker 1: story is she managed to get herself in so deep 252 00:14:57,090 --> 00:14:59,450 Speaker 1: over such an extended period of time. Yeah, I mean 253 00:14:59,490 --> 00:15:02,450 Speaker 1: here we're talking over a decade, Anne Freedman. She needs 254 00:15:02,450 --> 00:15:05,050 Speaker 1: a La Fear of Rosales who brings a little painting 255 00:15:05,530 --> 00:15:10,490 Speaker 1: from mister X, this anonymous collector, and establish a relationship 256 00:15:10,490 --> 00:15:14,410 Speaker 1: that lasts years and years and years. And these paintings 257 00:15:14,450 --> 00:15:19,010 Speaker 1: are authenticated and they're purchased and they're exhibited. It's just 258 00:15:19,050 --> 00:15:22,410 Speaker 1: this miracle. And so by the time that everything starts 259 00:15:22,410 --> 00:15:27,010 Speaker 1: crumbling and crashing and we get a misspelled park, which 260 00:15:27,050 --> 00:15:30,290 Speaker 1: I still can't quite believe happened. By that time, everyone 261 00:15:30,410 --> 00:15:33,490 Speaker 1: is in so deep, and everyone's reputations are so embroiled 262 00:15:33,490 --> 00:15:36,850 Speaker 1: in this. It's not that they are incapable of seeing 263 00:15:36,850 --> 00:15:39,370 Speaker 1: it on a logical level, but on an emotional level, 264 00:15:39,370 --> 00:15:42,810 Speaker 1: they no longer can, and they truly truly convince themselves 265 00:15:43,250 --> 00:15:48,210 Speaker 1: that this is real. And she's ended up selling millions 266 00:15:48,210 --> 00:15:51,450 Speaker 1: of dollars worth of work that she's received. She believes 267 00:15:51,490 --> 00:15:54,610 Speaker 1: it's genuine, it's forged, she sells it on and then 268 00:15:54,690 --> 00:15:59,010 Speaker 1: as it all starts to unravel, she is this forged works, 269 00:15:59,050 --> 00:16:02,850 Speaker 1: staunchest defender. Doesn't matter how much evidence, how many people 270 00:16:02,890 --> 00:16:06,130 Speaker 1: tell her it's forged. She's the champion of this work. 271 00:16:06,810 --> 00:16:09,410 Speaker 1: She is, and I think that also part of it 272 00:16:09,490 --> 00:16:11,970 Speaker 1: is that it's become her reputation right. This is what 273 00:16:12,090 --> 00:16:16,930 Speaker 1: has established her as a force in the modern arts scene. 274 00:16:17,130 --> 00:16:22,970 Speaker 1: Abstract expressionism is such a hot selling point of twentieth 275 00:16:22,970 --> 00:16:26,850 Speaker 1: century art, and she had unearthed all these treasures. That's 276 00:16:26,890 --> 00:16:29,890 Speaker 1: what made Anne Freedman and Friedman. So if you're giving 277 00:16:29,970 --> 00:16:33,850 Speaker 1: up the story, you're saying, my reputation is built on 278 00:16:33,890 --> 00:16:36,770 Speaker 1: a lie. I wasn't able to see this. I was duped. 279 00:16:36,810 --> 00:16:39,690 Speaker 1: What does that say about you? Your identity, your self worth, 280 00:16:39,930 --> 00:16:45,810 Speaker 1: everything is in There's this really amazing moment when everything's 281 00:16:45,850 --> 00:16:51,330 Speaker 1: fallen apart and her lawyer phones her and says, Rosales 282 00:16:52,010 --> 00:16:55,530 Speaker 1: has confessed. Rosales got this Chinese guy to paint all 283 00:16:55,530 --> 00:16:58,530 Speaker 1: of these paintings. And when Freedman puts the phone down, 284 00:16:58,690 --> 00:17:01,050 Speaker 1: her first instinct is, no, that's not right. I know 285 00:17:01,130 --> 00:17:04,450 Speaker 1: the paintings are genuine, and she still can't accept even 286 00:17:04,450 --> 00:17:06,450 Speaker 1: when the con artist is saying, yeah, yeah, I caned you. 287 00:17:06,770 --> 00:17:09,890 Speaker 1: I mean, that just shows the power of bully. Most 288 00:17:09,970 --> 00:17:13,170 Speaker 1: people who are victims of con artists never get that 289 00:17:13,850 --> 00:17:17,530 Speaker 1: moment of reckoning. Never get the con artist has been caught, 290 00:17:17,610 --> 00:17:20,850 Speaker 1: has confessed. You have the person, you have everything, you 291 00:17:20,890 --> 00:17:23,570 Speaker 1: have all the evidence, and you know, beyond a shadow 292 00:17:23,570 --> 00:17:26,450 Speaker 1: of a doubt that this is not real. Most people 293 00:17:26,930 --> 00:17:29,490 Speaker 1: can still cling to that illusion that it was real. 294 00:17:30,010 --> 00:17:32,930 Speaker 1: And that's the moment that illusion was taken away from 295 00:17:32,970 --> 00:17:37,090 Speaker 1: an Friedman. It reminds me of the very famous book 296 00:17:37,130 --> 00:17:39,410 Speaker 1: when prophecy fails. We tell the story in one of 297 00:17:39,850 --> 00:17:42,930 Speaker 1: one of our first cautionary tales of the cult who 298 00:17:42,930 --> 00:17:45,450 Speaker 1: believed that the UFO is going to come and then 299 00:17:45,490 --> 00:17:47,290 Speaker 1: they're going to take the true believers off to the 300 00:17:47,330 --> 00:17:49,690 Speaker 1: planet Clarion, and then they're going to destroy the world. 301 00:17:49,770 --> 00:17:53,650 Speaker 1: And Leon Festinger, this great psychologist, sent his grad students 302 00:17:53,730 --> 00:17:56,610 Speaker 1: in to join this cult, and so they were there 303 00:17:56,850 --> 00:17:59,490 Speaker 1: when the aliens did not show up, and then half 304 00:17:59,530 --> 00:18:02,410 Speaker 1: the cult leave and the other half, Yeah, double down, 305 00:18:02,490 --> 00:18:05,650 Speaker 1: We've actually saved the world even met and they start 306 00:18:05,690 --> 00:18:08,650 Speaker 1: issuing press releases. It's crazy. I love that story so 307 00:18:08,730 --> 00:18:13,570 Speaker 1: much because it just illustrates beautifully how cons work and 308 00:18:13,610 --> 00:18:16,330 Speaker 1: the moment that the red flags are no longer just 309 00:18:16,370 --> 00:18:19,170 Speaker 1: like red flags. Now it's like a fire. You say no, 310 00:18:19,250 --> 00:18:22,370 Speaker 1: there are no flames, there's no fire. Everything's fine, and 311 00:18:22,530 --> 00:18:25,290 Speaker 1: you double down and you believe even more. One of 312 00:18:25,330 --> 00:18:28,730 Speaker 1: the things that I was really surprised to find during 313 00:18:28,770 --> 00:18:32,450 Speaker 1: my research is how often victims of con artists pay 314 00:18:32,570 --> 00:18:35,970 Speaker 1: the legal fees of the con artists when the con 315 00:18:36,090 --> 00:18:38,530 Speaker 1: artists go on trial. That just makes me so sad. 316 00:18:38,650 --> 00:18:41,490 Speaker 1: It's it's sickening because they say no, no, it's a 317 00:18:41,530 --> 00:18:44,450 Speaker 1: travesty of justice. You know, this person's getting railroaded. It's 318 00:18:44,450 --> 00:18:48,130 Speaker 1: a government conspiracy. You have no idea how many mental 319 00:18:48,170 --> 00:18:50,890 Speaker 1: hoops that they jump through to justify it. And then 320 00:18:51,930 --> 00:18:55,650 Speaker 1: those same people they end up being the best targets 321 00:18:55,730 --> 00:18:59,450 Speaker 1: for new con artists because they've already gone through all 322 00:18:59,490 --> 00:19:01,690 Speaker 1: of this rationalization. So it ends up that the best 323 00:19:01,770 --> 00:19:04,850 Speaker 1: victim is someone who's already been victimized, because they're going 324 00:19:04,890 --> 00:19:08,610 Speaker 1: to fall forward again rather than say, oh no, I'm 325 00:19:08,690 --> 00:19:12,130 Speaker 1: used up. Kind of the anchoring tale of the Confidence Game, 326 00:19:12,170 --> 00:19:16,290 Speaker 1: which is the story of the great impostor, Ferdinand Demara, 327 00:19:16,650 --> 00:19:22,490 Speaker 1: this mythical but real figure who impersonated multiple people over decades. 328 00:19:22,810 --> 00:19:25,130 Speaker 1: And Demara, we should say, has done things like he's 329 00:19:25,170 --> 00:19:28,290 Speaker 1: pretended to be a surgeon, He's actually performed surgery on real, 330 00:19:28,330 --> 00:19:31,090 Speaker 1: live humans. He dropped out of high school. Right that. 331 00:19:31,170 --> 00:19:33,890 Speaker 1: This is not someone with any background to do this whatsoever. 332 00:19:34,210 --> 00:19:37,050 Speaker 1: This is someone who just goes beyond just being a 333 00:19:37,090 --> 00:19:40,610 Speaker 1: con artist. He plays literally with people's lives. His biographer, 334 00:19:41,290 --> 00:19:45,090 Speaker 1: Robert Crechton, actually captures a lot of this. So Crechton 335 00:19:45,130 --> 00:19:47,530 Speaker 1: has been traveling all over the country with Demara and 336 00:19:47,690 --> 00:19:50,530 Speaker 1: Crechton knows all of this about him. He's writing about him, right, 337 00:19:50,610 --> 00:19:54,330 Speaker 1: he's his biographer, and he knows this is a con artist. 338 00:19:54,330 --> 00:19:56,890 Speaker 1: He knows who Damara really is, a high school dropout. 339 00:19:57,170 --> 00:20:00,090 Speaker 1: And at the time, Crechton's wife is pregnant at home 340 00:20:00,530 --> 00:20:04,890 Speaker 1: and Demara somehow convinces Crechton that it would be a 341 00:20:04,970 --> 00:20:10,410 Speaker 1: really good idea if they fired their doctor. They're ob gyn, 342 00:20:10,570 --> 00:20:15,890 Speaker 1: and he Demara delivered his wife's baby, and Krechton from 343 00:20:15,930 --> 00:20:21,570 Speaker 1: California calls his wife and in all seriousness, proposes this 344 00:20:22,010 --> 00:20:24,850 Speaker 1: and she's obviously saying, are you out of your mind? 345 00:20:25,530 --> 00:20:27,770 Speaker 1: No way in hell, but has a happy end egg 346 00:20:27,850 --> 00:20:30,610 Speaker 1: She tells him exactly what she thinks of this idea, 347 00:20:30,730 --> 00:20:33,010 Speaker 1: and a normal doctor delivers a baby and the baby 348 00:20:33,090 --> 00:20:36,170 Speaker 1: is fine, but can you believe it? And then the 349 00:20:36,210 --> 00:20:39,250 Speaker 1: baby's now a little older and there are two daughters 350 00:20:39,290 --> 00:20:42,450 Speaker 1: at home and Crechton now and his wife. Now his 351 00:20:42,490 --> 00:20:45,690 Speaker 1: wife has met Demara. They let him babysit the kids, 352 00:20:46,730 --> 00:20:51,850 Speaker 1: which is just insane. The whole thing is yes, yeah, 353 00:20:52,050 --> 00:20:55,450 Speaker 1: what Demara was doing. It actually baffles me. He wasn't 354 00:20:55,490 --> 00:20:58,890 Speaker 1: a straightforward fraud where he's trying to gain financially or 355 00:20:58,890 --> 00:21:01,130 Speaker 1: it didn't seem to be he's just pretending to be 356 00:21:01,170 --> 00:21:04,090 Speaker 1: all these people that he's not because well, because I 357 00:21:04,090 --> 00:21:06,730 Speaker 1: don't know why he was doing it. Well, what I 358 00:21:06,810 --> 00:21:10,970 Speaker 1: have come to believe is almost no cons are just 359 00:21:11,410 --> 00:21:14,450 Speaker 1: for money, because most con artists, even the ones who 360 00:21:14,490 --> 00:21:19,570 Speaker 1: actually commit financial cons, they are perpetually broke because they 361 00:21:19,730 --> 00:21:23,050 Speaker 1: use the money for their other endeavors and for their cons, 362 00:21:23,090 --> 00:21:25,410 Speaker 1: and they could have made more money in simpler ways. 363 00:21:25,730 --> 00:21:28,170 Speaker 1: If you're smart enough to perpetrate a lot of these cons, 364 00:21:28,210 --> 00:21:31,050 Speaker 1: you typically are smart enough to get a job that 365 00:21:31,090 --> 00:21:34,210 Speaker 1: would be a lot simpler where you could actually make 366 00:21:34,450 --> 00:21:36,690 Speaker 1: more money. But I think that at the end of 367 00:21:36,690 --> 00:21:40,170 Speaker 1: the day, it's for power. It's for that feeling of 368 00:21:40,210 --> 00:21:44,650 Speaker 1: control over other people's realities and their people's lives. I 369 00:21:44,770 --> 00:21:48,410 Speaker 1: use the phrase playing god before I think that's exactly 370 00:21:48,570 --> 00:21:52,290 Speaker 1: what it is. It really is playing God. You get 371 00:21:52,290 --> 00:21:55,330 Speaker 1: to craft a world for someone else to live in, 372 00:21:55,410 --> 00:21:58,530 Speaker 1: and they believe in it, and you get to manipulate 373 00:21:58,530 --> 00:22:01,090 Speaker 1: what they're doing. I mean, what a rush of control. 374 00:22:01,610 --> 00:22:03,850 Speaker 1: And that's why I also think that what you and 375 00:22:03,890 --> 00:22:07,970 Speaker 1: I do, we're obviously we're not con artists, but you 376 00:22:08,050 --> 00:22:12,570 Speaker 1: have to realize that kind of storytelling, journalism. It has 377 00:22:12,650 --> 00:22:16,290 Speaker 1: some of those same roots for kind of creating worlds. 378 00:22:16,450 --> 00:22:20,250 Speaker 1: World set are realistic and that people want to inhabit, 379 00:22:20,730 --> 00:22:24,770 Speaker 1: and we do it because we want to hopefully clarify 380 00:22:24,810 --> 00:22:27,930 Speaker 1: and make people's lives better. Con artists, the motives are different. 381 00:22:28,050 --> 00:22:31,770 Speaker 1: They do it because they want to manipulate and control, 382 00:22:32,050 --> 00:22:35,130 Speaker 1: and they do it for personal gain, and their purposes 383 00:22:35,130 --> 00:22:39,130 Speaker 1: are much more nefarious. It is absolutely extraordinary. There is 384 00:22:39,170 --> 00:22:44,130 Speaker 1: a cautionary tale that has fascinated me about a particular 385 00:22:44,170 --> 00:22:48,610 Speaker 1: con which is the Howard Hughes autobiography. I don't know 386 00:22:48,610 --> 00:22:51,650 Speaker 1: how familiar you are with this conn Yeah, in a nutshell, 387 00:22:51,970 --> 00:22:56,930 Speaker 1: a writer, Clifford Irving proposes to ghostwrite the autobiography of 388 00:22:56,930 --> 00:23:00,130 Speaker 1: Howard Hughes, who's this famous for clues and convinces the 389 00:23:00,130 --> 00:23:04,090 Speaker 1: publishers that Howard Hughes is in on this and is collaborating. 390 00:23:04,250 --> 00:23:06,210 Speaker 1: And he just takes the bet that Howard Hughes is 391 00:23:06,250 --> 00:23:09,210 Speaker 1: so reclusive that he will never show up and say, 392 00:23:09,570 --> 00:23:11,170 Speaker 1: I don't know who this guy is in this project 393 00:23:11,210 --> 00:23:13,370 Speaker 1: has nothing to do with me, But what I think 394 00:23:13,410 --> 00:23:16,610 Speaker 1: is interesting and feels unusual. Maybe it's not unusual about 395 00:23:16,610 --> 00:23:19,050 Speaker 1: this particular con is that Clifford Irving doesn't seem to 396 00:23:19,050 --> 00:23:22,090 Speaker 1: have thought through the exit. Yeah, like, what's going to 397 00:23:22,130 --> 00:23:24,810 Speaker 1: happen after he's taken the money from the publisher? What 398 00:23:24,890 --> 00:23:27,690 Speaker 1: if Howard Hughes does say, I think this has nothing 399 00:23:27,690 --> 00:23:30,290 Speaker 1: to do with me. He hasn't thought through And most 400 00:23:30,290 --> 00:23:32,890 Speaker 1: con artists do, I think, think very carefully about how 401 00:23:32,930 --> 00:23:35,250 Speaker 1: to get out of the situation. Well, yes and no. 402 00:23:35,610 --> 00:23:38,450 Speaker 1: It seems to me that this was his first con 403 00:23:38,730 --> 00:23:42,490 Speaker 1: right before he was a middling author and nothing really successful. 404 00:23:42,930 --> 00:23:45,730 Speaker 1: But it's not like he committed cons or fraud in 405 00:23:45,770 --> 00:23:48,490 Speaker 1: the past, so because of that, he would have an 406 00:23:48,490 --> 00:23:52,570 Speaker 1: exit strategy. Con artists, as you say, often they do 407 00:23:52,650 --> 00:23:55,570 Speaker 1: have a very careful script for Okay, how do I 408 00:23:55,610 --> 00:23:57,930 Speaker 1: get out of this the last stages of the con. Now, 409 00:23:57,970 --> 00:23:59,690 Speaker 1: if the con is good enough, you never get there, 410 00:23:59,930 --> 00:24:02,170 Speaker 1: but there's always here's what we do in the end. 411 00:24:02,210 --> 00:24:06,690 Speaker 1: If the mark wise ends up as they get more successful, 412 00:24:06,810 --> 00:24:08,530 Speaker 1: as they get away with it and don't need that 413 00:24:08,530 --> 00:24:12,850 Speaker 1: exit strategy, the hubris gets the best of them. They 414 00:24:12,890 --> 00:24:15,050 Speaker 1: think that they're going to keep getting away with it 415 00:24:15,130 --> 00:24:18,370 Speaker 1: over and over and over. Let's once again use our 416 00:24:18,410 --> 00:24:22,770 Speaker 1: profession think about the journalists who were fabulousts or plagiarists 417 00:24:22,770 --> 00:24:26,490 Speaker 1: who got caught. Eventually, they usually get caught with something 418 00:24:26,650 --> 00:24:29,530 Speaker 1: so brazen that you think, oh my god, how does 419 00:24:29,610 --> 00:24:32,210 Speaker 1: anyone possibly think that they could get away with us? 420 00:24:32,370 --> 00:24:33,850 Speaker 1: He keeps saying, Oh, I got away with that, I 421 00:24:33,850 --> 00:24:37,250 Speaker 1: got away with that. I'm never gonna get caught. I'm God, Clifford. 422 00:24:37,770 --> 00:24:43,690 Speaker 1: He took Howard Hughes and he just starts there and says, Oh, 423 00:24:43,730 --> 00:24:45,770 Speaker 1: I think I can get away with this. It's not 424 00:24:45,810 --> 00:24:49,370 Speaker 1: like he's had a successful career at this and this 425 00:24:49,450 --> 00:24:52,130 Speaker 1: is probably why because his first one he did not 426 00:24:52,250 --> 00:24:55,330 Speaker 1: have an exit strategy, so he, I think safe to say, 427 00:24:55,370 --> 00:24:58,770 Speaker 1: would never have made a successful con artist. But here, 428 00:24:59,170 --> 00:25:01,130 Speaker 1: what's equally surprising to the fact that he had no 429 00:25:01,170 --> 00:25:04,770 Speaker 1: exit strategy, it's how much money he was paid and 430 00:25:04,850 --> 00:25:08,850 Speaker 1: how far he was able to take it before Howard 431 00:25:09,130 --> 00:25:12,490 Speaker 1: you stepped in it. I mean, this guy made millions 432 00:25:12,570 --> 00:25:16,370 Speaker 1: at the time, and it got pretty far into the 433 00:25:16,450 --> 00:25:20,890 Speaker 1: process before it all unraveled. And how do you not 434 00:25:21,010 --> 00:25:23,930 Speaker 1: see this coming? Well, I think you are a sense 435 00:25:24,090 --> 00:25:27,730 Speaker 1: believe your own eyes and believe that you're that good. 436 00:25:28,170 --> 00:25:30,730 Speaker 1: This guy's not hiding. He thinks he's going to get 437 00:25:30,730 --> 00:25:33,930 Speaker 1: away with it. We've been talking about stories from the 438 00:25:34,010 --> 00:25:37,450 Speaker 1: Confidence Game, but you have written two other rather wonderful books, 439 00:25:37,570 --> 00:25:41,890 Speaker 1: and I wanted to talk briefly about a story in Mastermind, 440 00:25:41,930 --> 00:25:44,370 Speaker 1: which is your book about how to think like Sherlock Holmes, 441 00:25:44,930 --> 00:25:46,930 Speaker 1: and that's the case of the Cottingly Fairies. We have 442 00:25:46,930 --> 00:25:49,810 Speaker 1: a cautionary tale about the cotting Lea fairies. It's two 443 00:25:49,850 --> 00:25:54,490 Speaker 1: little girls who persuades Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, the creator 444 00:25:54,570 --> 00:25:59,850 Speaker 1: of the most brilliantly rational figure in literary history, that 445 00:25:59,930 --> 00:26:01,490 Speaker 1: there are are fairies at the bottom of the garden 446 00:26:01,530 --> 00:26:04,450 Speaker 1: by faking these photographs. I mean, this one is funny. 447 00:26:04,850 --> 00:26:09,810 Speaker 1: It's hilarious. Yes, it also has its sad aspects to it. Yes, 448 00:26:09,930 --> 00:26:14,010 Speaker 1: I wanted to ask In Mastermind, you talk about Conan 449 00:26:14,250 --> 00:26:17,850 Speaker 1: Doyle's life outside Charlock Holmes, and I I was a 450 00:26:17,850 --> 00:26:21,490 Speaker 1: little puzzled because there's this other famous case where he 451 00:26:21,570 --> 00:26:24,530 Speaker 1: intervened in a miscarriage of justice. Conan Doyle seems to 452 00:26:24,530 --> 00:26:26,530 Speaker 1: be He's not just a guy who writes that a 453 00:26:26,530 --> 00:26:28,810 Speaker 1: smart guy. He is a smart guy. He's a very 454 00:26:28,890 --> 00:26:32,730 Speaker 1: rational man, and yet he falls for this this fairy story. Literally, 455 00:26:32,770 --> 00:26:35,490 Speaker 1: this fairy story so what was it about him that 456 00:26:35,570 --> 00:26:38,250 Speaker 1: made him so rational in some circumstances And he just 457 00:26:38,290 --> 00:26:40,490 Speaker 1: fell head over heels for this one. That's such a 458 00:26:40,490 --> 00:26:42,650 Speaker 1: great question. You know, he wasn't just a writer. He 459 00:26:42,730 --> 00:26:45,610 Speaker 1: was a doctor and the only reason he became a 460 00:26:45,650 --> 00:26:48,610 Speaker 1: writer was because his practice actually wasn't going well. And 461 00:26:48,690 --> 00:26:51,490 Speaker 1: so she started the first Charlock Holmes stories as he 462 00:26:51,530 --> 00:26:54,130 Speaker 1: waited for patients who did not come. But he was 463 00:26:54,610 --> 00:26:56,450 Speaker 1: The reason I mentioned this is he was part of 464 00:26:56,450 --> 00:27:01,730 Speaker 1: the scientific community. He went to lectures in Germany to 465 00:27:01,770 --> 00:27:05,890 Speaker 1: hear about the latest discoveries of microbes. You know, he 466 00:27:06,290 --> 00:27:09,610 Speaker 1: was someone with a really keen scientific mind. So also, 467 00:27:09,650 --> 00:27:12,250 Speaker 1: by the way, an expert photographer. Yes, one of his 468 00:27:12,370 --> 00:27:14,610 Speaker 1: first yes, I think his first work was published in 469 00:27:14,610 --> 00:27:18,010 Speaker 1: the British Jirle of Photography. Yes, he's someone who throughout 470 00:27:18,050 --> 00:27:21,010 Speaker 1: most of his life was just this paragon of rationality. 471 00:27:21,010 --> 00:27:23,570 Speaker 1: Of course, he saw a miscarriage of justice. He created 472 00:27:23,570 --> 00:27:27,290 Speaker 1: Sherlock Holmes, and that something seems to happen. We can't 473 00:27:27,330 --> 00:27:30,690 Speaker 1: just look at it in a vacuum. The fairies didn't 474 00:27:30,730 --> 00:27:36,250 Speaker 1: just magically appear. He had experienced a lot of personal misfortune. 475 00:27:36,450 --> 00:27:40,210 Speaker 1: Son died in the war, wife incredibly sick. That made 476 00:27:40,290 --> 00:27:45,290 Speaker 1: him very despondent, wanting to believe that he can somehow 477 00:27:45,290 --> 00:27:49,130 Speaker 1: communicate with the other side that life doesn't end in death, 478 00:27:49,170 --> 00:27:52,130 Speaker 1: which I think a lot of people feel when they 479 00:27:52,170 --> 00:27:57,050 Speaker 1: lose people they love. And also context of the times, 480 00:27:57,290 --> 00:28:02,130 Speaker 1: this is a moment in time where spiritualism is actually 481 00:28:02,170 --> 00:28:06,890 Speaker 1: getting a little bit more credibility in the mainstream. So 482 00:28:07,090 --> 00:28:11,570 Speaker 1: William James, who we know as the father of modern psychology, 483 00:28:12,130 --> 00:28:16,850 Speaker 1: happens to head up the Spiritualist Society and wants to 484 00:28:16,930 --> 00:28:21,130 Speaker 1: run studies and psychological experiments on the other side and 485 00:28:21,210 --> 00:28:25,610 Speaker 1: these unseen psychic powers and psychic forces, because so many 486 00:28:25,690 --> 00:28:30,450 Speaker 1: unknown forces are actually being discovered scientifically, radio waves, X rays, 487 00:28:30,490 --> 00:28:32,770 Speaker 1: all these things that we can't see. There's so much 488 00:28:32,810 --> 00:28:35,850 Speaker 1: invisible in the world that we're now bringing signs to 489 00:28:35,890 --> 00:28:41,210 Speaker 1: bear on. That said, when two girls appear and show 490 00:28:41,250 --> 00:28:45,690 Speaker 1: this evidence of fairies, even at the time, almost nobody 491 00:28:45,730 --> 00:28:48,490 Speaker 1: believes them because if you look at the photographs, they're bad. 492 00:28:48,810 --> 00:28:51,930 Speaker 1: These are not good fakes. And as we know, what 493 00:28:51,970 --> 00:28:54,250 Speaker 1: they did was they cut out fairies from a book 494 00:28:54,410 --> 00:28:58,530 Speaker 1: and they just pasted them, you know, into these landscapes. 495 00:28:58,570 --> 00:29:02,210 Speaker 1: It's a very crude forgery. Beyond that one of the 496 00:29:02,250 --> 00:29:06,410 Speaker 1: girls is an apprenticet of photography studio, and as you said, 497 00:29:06,650 --> 00:29:11,010 Speaker 1: Conandoel himself was a photographer. And yet I think he 498 00:29:11,130 --> 00:29:14,650 Speaker 1: just wants to believe. What I find really interesting is 499 00:29:14,690 --> 00:29:17,810 Speaker 1: that even as he's being deceived by the fairies, he 500 00:29:17,970 --> 00:29:21,090 Speaker 1: is still writing Sherlock Holmes, and Sherlock Holmes doesn't believe 501 00:29:21,130 --> 00:29:24,290 Speaker 1: in spiritualism. It's just hilarious because I think on some 502 00:29:24,450 --> 00:29:28,730 Speaker 1: level Conan Dowell must understand what's going on, but it's 503 00:29:28,730 --> 00:29:31,570 Speaker 1: subconscious and he's bringing it out in his fictional creation. 504 00:29:32,410 --> 00:29:36,210 Speaker 1: He really wanted to believe. And Ann Friedman, yeah, really 505 00:29:36,290 --> 00:29:38,690 Speaker 1: wanted to believe that she had found these rothcoes in 506 00:29:38,730 --> 00:29:41,610 Speaker 1: these pollocks. And Paul Fampton really wanted to believe there 507 00:29:41,650 --> 00:29:45,130 Speaker 1: was a supermodel waiting for him in Russells. Never underestimate 508 00:29:45,170 --> 00:29:47,450 Speaker 1: our need to believe, in our desire, to believe in 509 00:29:47,450 --> 00:29:51,130 Speaker 1: our hopefulness and our eternal optimism that good things happen 510 00:29:51,210 --> 00:29:55,410 Speaker 1: to us. Yeah, your Most Fast book is the biggest bluff. 511 00:29:55,610 --> 00:29:58,810 Speaker 1: It is an absolute classic. It's a wonderful Everyone needs 512 00:29:58,810 --> 00:30:00,490 Speaker 1: to read it. I feel like everyone has read it. 513 00:30:00,530 --> 00:30:02,130 Speaker 1: But if you haven't read it, go and read it 514 00:30:02,530 --> 00:30:07,490 Speaker 1: all about your quest to try to become a championship 515 00:30:07,570 --> 00:30:11,010 Speaker 1: level poker player. Given what we've been talking about, I 516 00:30:11,050 --> 00:30:14,290 Speaker 1: wanted to ask, what are the similarities or differences between 517 00:30:14,290 --> 00:30:17,650 Speaker 1: a bluff and a con The answer to that is 518 00:30:17,690 --> 00:30:23,050 Speaker 1: the answer to why not all marketers or pr people, 519 00:30:23,290 --> 00:30:26,730 Speaker 1: or politicians or writers are all con artists either, because 520 00:30:26,850 --> 00:30:29,450 Speaker 1: it's so easy to say, well, it's all deception. Why 521 00:30:29,490 --> 00:30:32,850 Speaker 1: isn't everything a con And that's intention. So a con 522 00:30:32,970 --> 00:30:38,250 Speaker 1: artist is someone who takes advantage of your confidence, your 523 00:30:38,370 --> 00:30:42,490 Speaker 1: trust in them for their own personal gain, and it 524 00:30:42,650 --> 00:30:48,130 Speaker 1: is deception with a nefarious edge, with intent to do 525 00:30:48,250 --> 00:30:53,650 Speaker 1: something harmful, something that is good for the con artist, 526 00:30:54,370 --> 00:30:59,210 Speaker 1: and what they say is all in service of that. 527 00:31:00,450 --> 00:31:05,850 Speaker 1: When you're talking about white lies, or storytelling in journalistic sense, 528 00:31:05,970 --> 00:31:09,930 Speaker 1: or a bluff and poker, the intention is not nefarious. 529 00:31:10,130 --> 00:31:11,570 Speaker 1: In the case of a writer, it's to make the 530 00:31:11,610 --> 00:31:14,170 Speaker 1: world clearer. In the case of a politician who's not 531 00:31:14,210 --> 00:31:16,610 Speaker 1: a con artist, it's to make the world a better place. 532 00:31:16,850 --> 00:31:18,770 Speaker 1: In the case of a bluff, you're playing a game 533 00:31:18,890 --> 00:31:21,650 Speaker 1: with rules, right, You're playing poker. Bluffing is part of 534 00:31:21,650 --> 00:31:25,010 Speaker 1: the game, and so you're just engaging in deception that 535 00:31:25,050 --> 00:31:27,570 Speaker 1: everyone is aware of. Everyone knows that within the rules 536 00:31:27,610 --> 00:31:31,130 Speaker 1: of this game is to deceive other people so that 537 00:31:31,210 --> 00:31:34,210 Speaker 1: you can win. It's a very different tone of deceiving 538 00:31:34,210 --> 00:31:36,970 Speaker 1: someone for your own personal ends. Now, there are con 539 00:31:37,090 --> 00:31:40,850 Speaker 1: artists in absolutely every profession. We talked very briefly about 540 00:31:40,850 --> 00:31:43,610 Speaker 1: writers who are fabulous or plagiarists or who deceive their 541 00:31:43,650 --> 00:31:46,930 Speaker 1: con artists. They're con artists in the poker world, people 542 00:31:47,050 --> 00:31:50,490 Speaker 1: who pretend to be someone else, who steal your money. 543 00:31:50,690 --> 00:31:52,810 Speaker 1: That's not within the rules, that's not part of the game. 544 00:31:52,810 --> 00:31:57,890 Speaker 1: That's not bluffing, that is actual malicious intent. The way 545 00:31:57,930 --> 00:31:59,530 Speaker 1: I always say, you know how to draw the line 546 00:31:59,530 --> 00:32:03,370 Speaker 1: between con artists is take a snake oil snailsman, and 547 00:32:03,690 --> 00:32:06,050 Speaker 1: one of them knows he's selling snake oil. Right. He 548 00:32:06,130 --> 00:32:09,770 Speaker 1: knows that this is actually, you know, to bull oil 549 00:32:09,890 --> 00:32:12,250 Speaker 1: with fruit coloring, and is probably not going to kill you. 550 00:32:12,290 --> 00:32:13,730 Speaker 1: But it's definitely not going to do any of the 551 00:32:13,770 --> 00:32:15,370 Speaker 1: things he says. But he can make a lot of 552 00:32:15,370 --> 00:32:17,610 Speaker 1: money at fairs selling it, so he's going to do it. 553 00:32:17,810 --> 00:32:21,050 Speaker 1: That's a con artist, right, he knows exactly what he's doing. 554 00:32:21,330 --> 00:32:24,450 Speaker 1: Now imagine he convinces someone else to sell that with him, 555 00:32:24,570 --> 00:32:27,690 Speaker 1: and that person becomes a true believer. They actually think 556 00:32:27,730 --> 00:32:31,530 Speaker 1: it cured them and they think they're selling this miracle 557 00:32:31,570 --> 00:32:34,130 Speaker 1: snake oil, and they come up to you and they say, here, 558 00:32:34,170 --> 00:32:36,530 Speaker 1: by this, it's amazing. They're not a con artist. There 559 00:32:36,850 --> 00:32:39,170 Speaker 1: might be a little gullible, but they're a victim. They're 560 00:32:39,210 --> 00:32:42,890 Speaker 1: a true believer. They're someone who actually believes what they're selling. 561 00:32:43,170 --> 00:32:46,290 Speaker 1: Exact same action, right, You're selling snake oil, and yet 562 00:32:46,290 --> 00:32:47,850 Speaker 1: one of the people who's selling it as a con 563 00:32:47,930 --> 00:32:50,370 Speaker 1: artist and the other person isn't. And I think that's 564 00:32:50,410 --> 00:32:53,010 Speaker 1: the test you always have to subject people to to 565 00:32:53,010 --> 00:32:55,490 Speaker 1: try to figure out is this a con or not, 566 00:32:55,650 --> 00:32:59,090 Speaker 1: because otherwise the word loses all meaning. We do need 567 00:32:59,130 --> 00:33:02,810 Speaker 1: to have that intention very clear. Of course, it's hard 568 00:33:02,810 --> 00:33:04,650 Speaker 1: to get into other people's minds and know what their 569 00:33:04,690 --> 00:33:07,130 Speaker 1: intention really is. You know, is this person a true 570 00:33:07,130 --> 00:33:10,690 Speaker 1: believer or is this person a con artist? And can 571 00:33:10,730 --> 00:33:12,610 Speaker 1: you give me any advice as to how not to 572 00:33:12,690 --> 00:33:17,010 Speaker 1: be calmed or is it just like the weather, it's 573 00:33:17,050 --> 00:33:19,690 Speaker 1: just one of these things. So it's going to rain, 574 00:33:19,770 --> 00:33:21,850 Speaker 1: you're gonna get wet, it's gonna relate, you'll be calmed. Well, 575 00:33:21,890 --> 00:33:24,450 Speaker 1: I think that has to be your attitude. When I 576 00:33:24,570 --> 00:33:28,410 Speaker 1: finished writing The Confidence Game, my initial reaction was lock 577 00:33:28,490 --> 00:33:31,170 Speaker 1: myself in a room, throw away the key, and never 578 00:33:31,330 --> 00:33:34,370 Speaker 1: interact with the outside world again because people suck. I 579 00:33:34,450 --> 00:33:36,650 Speaker 1: got past that. There was a reason that was my 580 00:33:36,690 --> 00:33:39,650 Speaker 1: initial reaction, because you realize that we're all susceptible to it. 581 00:33:40,050 --> 00:33:42,890 Speaker 1: But that means you also don't get to live. So yes, 582 00:33:43,210 --> 00:33:45,850 Speaker 1: you always just have to say one day it might happen, 583 00:33:45,890 --> 00:33:49,530 Speaker 1: and that's okay. You still can protect yourself against the 584 00:33:49,570 --> 00:33:54,010 Speaker 1: worst of it. My best advice is whenever things are 585 00:33:54,050 --> 00:33:56,370 Speaker 1: happening that are good, that's when you need to be 586 00:33:56,410 --> 00:33:59,290 Speaker 1: the most skeptical. When things are too good to be true, 587 00:33:59,410 --> 00:34:02,290 Speaker 1: they probably are, but nothing's too good for me. Really 588 00:34:02,290 --> 00:34:04,530 Speaker 1: try to get past that and try to say, Okay, 589 00:34:04,530 --> 00:34:06,130 Speaker 1: things are really good. This is when I need to 590 00:34:06,170 --> 00:34:08,890 Speaker 1: ask questions. Don't assume every single person's out to get you, 591 00:34:09,090 --> 00:34:12,090 Speaker 1: as they're not, but verify and don't be afraid of 592 00:34:12,090 --> 00:34:14,530 Speaker 1: looking like an asshole, because one of the reasons we 593 00:34:14,570 --> 00:34:17,290 Speaker 1: often don't verify is because we don't want to be Oh, 594 00:34:17,330 --> 00:34:18,890 Speaker 1: you know, I hate to be the guy who brings 595 00:34:18,930 --> 00:34:21,690 Speaker 1: this up. But be the guy who brings it up, 596 00:34:21,810 --> 00:34:25,370 Speaker 1: that's okay. At this stage, I would normally ask my 597 00:34:25,410 --> 00:34:27,490 Speaker 1: guest to tell me how the story ends. I'd ask 598 00:34:27,530 --> 00:34:30,490 Speaker 1: you to tell me how the story ends. For Paul Frampton. 599 00:34:30,610 --> 00:34:32,850 Speaker 1: But actually, if it's okay, I'm going to tell you 600 00:34:32,930 --> 00:34:36,050 Speaker 1: how the story ends. Yes, as I mentioned, he was 601 00:34:36,090 --> 00:34:38,810 Speaker 1: friends with my father, and so he went to jail 602 00:34:39,130 --> 00:34:42,530 Speaker 1: for a few years. He got back to the UK 603 00:34:42,730 --> 00:34:47,170 Speaker 1: in the end, and I saw him in the spring 604 00:34:47,210 --> 00:34:49,970 Speaker 1: of twenty twenty two. And the good news is he 605 00:34:50,050 --> 00:34:53,930 Speaker 1: was in great form. Is very happy, very cheerful, very charming. 606 00:34:54,290 --> 00:34:56,530 Speaker 1: The bad news is it was at my father's funeral, 607 00:34:56,730 --> 00:34:59,970 Speaker 1: and so perhaps being happy, cheerful and charming was not 608 00:35:00,450 --> 00:35:02,570 Speaker 1: exactly how he should have behaved, but maybe it was 609 00:35:02,570 --> 00:35:05,650 Speaker 1: in character. And the funny thing was we only spoke briefly, 610 00:35:06,090 --> 00:35:08,250 Speaker 1: but he told me that it had an argument with 611 00:35:08,330 --> 00:35:11,730 Speaker 1: my father, or a gentle argument with my father over 612 00:35:11,770 --> 00:35:16,410 Speaker 1: who was the most famous me, my father's son, or him, 613 00:35:16,450 --> 00:35:19,290 Speaker 1: Professor Paul Frampton, who'd been profiled in the New York 614 00:35:19,330 --> 00:35:22,010 Speaker 1: Times for being the victim of one of the most 615 00:35:22,010 --> 00:35:25,770 Speaker 1: famous scams in history. But there you go. He's flourishing, 616 00:35:26,210 --> 00:35:28,930 Speaker 1: and I was glad to see it. Of course he 617 00:35:29,090 --> 00:35:32,650 Speaker 1: is so glad. He's flourishing. Narcissism gets you very far 618 00:35:32,690 --> 00:35:38,410 Speaker 1: in life. Riah Clickova, thank you so much, Thank you 619 00:35:38,490 --> 00:35:49,930 Speaker 1: so much to this has been an absolute pleasure. Cautionary 620 00:35:49,930 --> 00:35:53,410 Speaker 1: Tales is written by me Tim Harford with Andrew Wright. 621 00:35:54,490 --> 00:35:58,250 Speaker 1: It's produced by Alice Fines with support from Edith Rousselow. 622 00:35:59,050 --> 00:36:01,850 Speaker 1: The sound design and original music is the work of 623 00:36:01,930 --> 00:36:06,050 Speaker 1: Pascal Wise. The show wouldn't have been possible without the 624 00:36:06,090 --> 00:36:11,730 Speaker 1: work of Jacob Weisberg, Bryan Dilley, her Barton, Greta con Latle, Millard, 625 00:36:12,090 --> 00:36:17,290 Speaker 1: John Schnars, Carlie Migliori, Eric Sandler, Maggie Taylor, Nicole Mrano, 626 00:36:17,610 --> 00:36:22,930 Speaker 1: and Morgan Ratner. Cautionary Tales here's a production of Pushkin Industries. 627 00:36:23,290 --> 00:36:26,370 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please remember to share, rate 628 00:36:26,490 --> 00:36:30,250 Speaker 1: and review. It helps us for mysterious reasons, and if 629 00:36:30,250 --> 00:36:33,050 Speaker 1: you want to hear the show, add free sign up 630 00:36:33,090 --> 00:36:36,250 Speaker 1: for Pushkin Plus on the show page and Apple Podcasts, 631 00:36:36,610 --> 00:37:11,370 Speaker 1: or at pushkin dot fm, slash Plus by