Speaker 1: The volume.
Speaker 2: This week on Prime Cuts, Baby Chad Millman, Sharper Square,
Speaker 2: John Middlecuff on the Buffalo Bill's resurgence, My top takes
Speaker 2: the week. How about them Rams? There were two games
Speaker 2: this week on the docket that I really really liked.
Speaker 2: One of them I talked about this on FS. One
Speaker 2: was the Rams tonight minus four, three and a half
Speaker 2: against Derek Carr and the Saints. McVeigh in a short
Speaker 2: week has won six of seven games. Offensive coaches on
Speaker 2: a short week can be really really good against defensive coaches.
Speaker 2: They can do little tweaks with their quarterback and their offense.
Speaker 2: An offensive culture, I think always has a bit of
Speaker 2: an advantage on a short week, especially if you're playing
Speaker 2: at home. And McVeigh is six and one in these
Speaker 2: spots now seven and one. And also I don't think
Speaker 2: Dennis Allen's a very good coach. The last two weeks
Speaker 2: I've watched mcy work Ron rivera of the Commanders. Commanders
Speaker 2: late game situational football was embarrassing, and I thought Dennis
Speaker 2: Allen's halftime move right before half was a swing and
Speaker 2: a miss. So you know, I go on and on
Speaker 2: about this, but May is having an unbelievable year. If
Speaker 2: you watch all the motions and all the shifting and
Speaker 2: all the manipulation on virtually every play, Saints lineup. They
Speaker 2: don't use motion. I mean most of the time they
Speaker 2: don't use motion. They line up. They don't put the
Speaker 2: defense in conflict. It's much easier for a defense to
Speaker 2: just line up, see what you're doing, and go. The
Speaker 2: Rams are using shifts and motions and these multiple sets
Speaker 2: where you've got three receivers, jumbo sets. It puts a
Speaker 2: lot of conflict and a lot of decision making. Throw
Speaker 2: in some motion. The Niners with Kyle Shanahan lead the
Speaker 2: league in motion, along with Miami with an offensive coach,
Speaker 2: and the Rams that offensive coach. It is checkers and
Speaker 2: chess and McVeagh, McDaniel, Andy Reid, Shanahan. It's a different
Speaker 2: looking sport. I mean it's a different looking sport. So
Speaker 2: and mcveay's had his way two and oh against defensive
Speaker 2: coach Pete Carroll one to oh against Ron Rivera want
Speaker 2: to know, against Dennis Allen, two and oh against Arizona.
Speaker 2: He lost earlier in the year when the Rams were
Speaker 2: kind of beat up to Mike Tomlin, the Steelers but
Speaker 2: since Thanksgiving, Matt Stafford fourteen touchdowns, one pick and a
Speaker 2: passer rating of over one fourteen. And I think, you know,
Speaker 2: one of the things that jumps out to me is
Speaker 2: that mcvah and less Need the GM really work hand
Speaker 2: in hand, and that's really really important. I remember when
Speaker 2: Jim Harball was with the Niners with Trent and Balkey,
Speaker 2: and they couldn't stand each other. And there's some situations
Speaker 2: in the NFL where the gms and the coaches aren't close.
Speaker 2: Mickey Loomis and Sean Payton when they were in New
Speaker 2: Orleans were best friends. Really matters. But you know, less
Speaker 2: Need and mc mcvay's got a great sense for offense.
Speaker 2: They find Puka Nakua in the fifth round, and they
Speaker 2: also go, get here's a prime example of an offensive culture.
Speaker 2: So dots and the interior offensive lineman for the Rams,
Speaker 2: they pick him up in a trade on the interior
Speaker 2: the online from the Steelers. Steelers weren't going to start
Speaker 2: Dotson the guard. He's now the fourth highest redded guard
Speaker 2: in the NFL with Sean McVay. Steelers weren't going to
Speaker 2: start him. So and I go on and on about this,
Speaker 2: but McVeigh is the preparation, the in game management, and
Speaker 2: I think a lot of times that the media beats
Speaker 2: up on coaches for some clock stuff late in games.
Speaker 2: It's fast moving, it's fluid. Nobody's perfect. But I'll take
Speaker 2: the offensive guys over the defensive guys every time. And
Speaker 2: I also think one of the advantages the Rams have
Speaker 2: because they don't have good special teams. They're not a
Speaker 2: super Bowl team in my opinion. They're a team that
Speaker 2: can go. They'll probably end up getting into the playoffs
Speaker 2: and facing Detroit in Detroit, and I would probably take
Speaker 2: the Lions. They have more experience, they have a dominant
Speaker 2: offensive line. Jared Goff is very good at home when
Speaker 2: he gets on his spot and not rushed, and the
Speaker 2: Rams pass rush can be a little hit and miss.
Speaker 2: Their special teams aren't good, their secondaries Young got torched
Speaker 2: over the top a couple of times tonight first half
Speaker 2: and second half. That's what Rams games are. But they've
Speaker 2: scored at least twenty seven points, I think, in four
Speaker 2: straight games. And I thought they should have beaten the Ravens.
Speaker 2: It was a go either way game, but we'd seen
Speaker 2: other teams in the NFC go out to Baltimore, Detroit
Speaker 2: and Seattle and get smoked. The Rams went out there
Speaker 2: and went toe to toe with Baltimore, a really good
Speaker 2: football team. So I just think you're looking at a
Speaker 2: Rams team that has made over the last six weeks.
Speaker 2: They are a completely different football team. A lot of
Speaker 2: it is on offense. Their special teams weren't good early,
Speaker 2: are not good now. Their secondary is okay, it's okay now.
Speaker 2: It's the offensive improvement. Guys have gotten healthy. Stafford's getting
Speaker 2: time to throw, Kyra and Williams the running back, small
Speaker 2: guy but very powerful, shifty, and mcveigh's offense is really
Speaker 2: a ball control offense. You know, you think McVeigh, you
Speaker 2: know you think these offensive coaches. You know it's big,
Speaker 2: over the top plays. It really isn't with McVeigh. He
Speaker 2: was at his best when Gurley was in his prime,
Speaker 2: and now Williams in his prime. That's really when he's
Speaker 2: at his best when he can rely on a fifteen
Speaker 2: to eighteen carry running back. And also Cooper Cup's a
Speaker 2: big receiver. Puka Nakup is a big receiver. He uses
Speaker 2: those highly effectively. So it is all rolling for the Rams.
Speaker 2: Now they're hot. It was a coaching mismatch. They get
Speaker 2: a scheduling break and they feel like a playoff team.
Speaker 2: You know, Philadelphia, the Eagles really remind me of the
Speaker 2: Kansas City Chiefs. I still think they're a really good
Speaker 2: football team. They've just had a brutal schedule. They can't
Speaker 2: catch a break. There's some fatigue. They're not very good
Speaker 2: in the back end of their defense, and they find themselves.
Speaker 2: They're going to make the playoffs because of Dallas's lost.
Speaker 2: They got a break there. They're gonna make the playoffs.
Speaker 2: And outside of San Francisco, I think they could win
Speaker 2: every single game. I mean, I watched them play the
Speaker 2: Rams earlier this year, pushed them around in Los Angeles.
Speaker 2: I've watched them play the Cowboys twice. They match up
Speaker 2: fine Detroit. If Detroit had to go on the road
Speaker 2: to Philadelphia, I'd take Philadelphia Jared Goff on the road cold,
Speaker 2: whether or not the same quarterback. So I think Philadelphia's fine.
Speaker 2: You know, it's recency biased. They just lost again. They
Speaker 2: look cooked. They're not a great team. Kansas City's not
Speaker 2: a great team. I mean the Kadarius Tony if they
Speaker 2: were a great team, wouldn't get on the field again.
Speaker 3: They need him.
Speaker 2: They need Canarius Tony in Philadelphia. For all the misgivings
Speaker 2: about the Eagles, they had this game one. You know,
Speaker 2: these have been close games with Buffalo Dallas. They got whacked,
Speaker 2: but they won a close game against Dallas. Earlier they
Speaker 2: were in a close game against Buffalo. This is a
Speaker 2: good football operation. It's a good intense football team, and
Speaker 2: I think Philadelphia is gonna be fine. There are teams
Speaker 2: in this league. You know, if you have a bad CEO,
Speaker 2: the business gets worse over time. You saw that with
Speaker 2: Brandon Staley and the Chargers. They got worse every week.
Speaker 2: They opened the season nearly beating Miami, looked really interesting,
Speaker 2: and then a poorly run business gets bet Washington. The
Speaker 2: Commanders with Ron Rivera, they were a viable team seven
Speaker 2: weeks ago. They just get worse. It feels like every
Speaker 2: week you can see some of these defensive coaches they
Speaker 2: feel Jurassic. They're out of touch. You know. Meanwhile, you've
Speaker 2: got Shane Steichen taking Gardner Minshew and beating the Steelers.
Speaker 2: You've got Sean McVay. I think Sean McVay right now,
Speaker 2: week to week is doing the best job of coaching
Speaker 2: in the entire league really outplayed the Commanders from the
Speaker 2: very beginning. And you just saw a classic, young, smart,
Speaker 2: progressive offensive head coach just getting better offensively every week.
Speaker 2: It's amazing. He takes a rookie Puka Nakua, he takes
Speaker 2: Kyron Williams, who's now like the third best offensive player
Speaker 2: in the league behind Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey. Folks,
Speaker 2: that's coaching. Coaching is get the most out of your players.
Speaker 2: And here in Los Angeles, nobody got less than Brandon Staley,
Speaker 2: and nobody gets more than Sean McVay. The job he
Speaker 2: has done this year is absolutely remarkable. He is squeezing
Speaker 2: every ounce out of a defense that's Aaron Donald and kids,
Speaker 2: and an offense which is guys mostly Stafford Cup, Tyler Higbee,
Speaker 2: probably Rob Hanstein didn't play today, the right tackle a
Speaker 2: little bit out of their prime, and then kids kyn
Speaker 2: Williams and Puka Nakua. It is a marvel to watch
Speaker 2: the Rams play. And I know I live in Los
Speaker 2: Angeles and you're thinking, oh, Colin, you're going overboard. This
Speaker 2: team was picked to win five games in Vegas, and
Speaker 2: they have an opportunity to win ten. All right, everybody,
Speaker 2: welcome in. It's the Colin Coward Podcast. You know who
Speaker 2: I am, I hope by this point in my life.
Speaker 2: And this is John Middlecoff three and out podcast at
Speaker 2: the volume you see him all the time on our
Speaker 2: digital stuff accounts and a former NFL scout. We start
Speaker 2: with the obvious one. I did like Buffalo to win.
Speaker 2: I do think this this league week to week. It
Speaker 2: depends on the spot you're in. I think San Francisco
Speaker 2: is unique in where their bad game is still good enough,
Speaker 2: you know, to go to Cleveland and almost win if
Speaker 2: they hit field goals. But most of the teams in
Speaker 2: this league have just bad Sundays. They're off a big win,
Speaker 2: they're you know, they're This was a spot for Buffalo.
Speaker 2: James Cook now is becoming a real part of this offense.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 2: All of a sudden, Dallas on the road falls behind.
Speaker 2: Dack's not the same quarterback behind. Are you surprised, however?
Speaker 2: How the Bills ran the ball on the Dallas defense.
Speaker 2: It was I don't remember seeing the Dallas defense run
Speaker 2: defense that poor for a couple of years.
Speaker 1: To me, one thing that Dallas over the last month,
Speaker 1: why a lot of us have been buying in Is
Speaker 1: because of their physicality, like just their overall toughness, and
Speaker 1: today Buffalo kicked their ass. I mean that was a beatdown.
Speaker 1: And I think I said last week when we watched
Speaker 1: Buffalo pull that crazy game out against Kansas City, it's
Speaker 1: hard to take them seriously when all their games are
Speaker 1: like that. They were like the better version of the Chargers.
Speaker 1: They just found a way to win some of them.
Speaker 1: But today you gotta give them their ceiling. I mean,
Speaker 1: they have a couple wins this year that Miami win
Speaker 1: early in the season. Miami's pretty good. That game against
Speaker 1: Dallas today, like their ceiling is pretty high. When they're
Speaker 1: on obviously playing at home, the division is still open,
Speaker 1: like the division is not set. Miami schedule is very hard.
Speaker 1: They played Dallas, they play the Ravens, then they finished
Speaker 1: with Buffalo. You look at buffalo schedule, at the Chargers,
Speaker 1: who mailed that thing in the Pats, and then they finished,
Speaker 1: like we said, with Miami. Listen, they've kind of reeled
Speaker 1: me back in because today was as much about Josh
Speaker 1: Allen just going Lebron James or Steph Curry. It was
Speaker 1: more the defense annihilated McCarthy's offense. And like you said,
Speaker 1: the run game. What has Buffalo always lacked. It's they've
Speaker 1: never had a run back beside Josh, Well, if you
Speaker 1: can get a guy, you don't need him to get
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty yards every game. But if you
Speaker 1: can rely on an individual to be one hundred yard
Speaker 1: a game guy in cold weather games, hard not to
Speaker 1: like Buffalo and look at him a little differently after
Speaker 1: the last sixty minutes, right right, you know.
Speaker 2: I was thinking about the Steeler teams with Tomlin when
Speaker 2: Ben was in his prime. Is that and they had like,
Speaker 2: you know, a lavian bell, And that's what Buffalo reminds
Speaker 2: me of. They didn't win, you know, they got a
Speaker 2: Super Bowl, no question, a couple with Ben. But this
Speaker 2: is what Buffalo reminds me. A defensive coach, a defensive
Speaker 2: culture with a star quarterback that's about seventy percent of
Speaker 2: the offense. And they when they had the star running
Speaker 2: back kind of in his prime as an energy, a twitchy,
Speaker 2: energy player. There's always Pittsburgh always had a star receiver
Speaker 2: on the outside. They draft and developed receivers better than Buffalo.
Speaker 2: But this is what this is really what they remind
Speaker 2: me of. This is a big Ben's Steeler team with
Speaker 2: a defensive coach, defensive culture that has enough offensive pieces
Speaker 2: to win. And I when I watch them today, I'm like,
Speaker 2: not everybody peaks at the right time. Rams are a
Speaker 2: totally different team than six weeks ago. Don't even look
Speaker 2: like the same team. I mean, that's a dangerous team.
Speaker 2: Now they're blowing people out. So I do you buy
Speaker 2: my bills? Look like a Steeler comp Ben Josh Allen
Speaker 2: defensive coach where they're very, very energized running back.
Speaker 1: Yeah, don't hate it at all. And like the Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: they're comfortable playing outside.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: That's and look at the AFC. It's hard to know
Speaker 1: how the seeding is gonna shake out, but they would
Speaker 1: be comfortable. We've seen them go on the road in
Speaker 1: Kansas City and play well, go on the road in
Speaker 1: Baltimore and play yeah, right, Cleveland problem, Miami, no problem,
Speaker 1: they won't. They view Miami as an inferior team. Right,
Speaker 1: So you go listen if this team gets in there
Speaker 1: and they have a chance to run the table and
Speaker 1: get to eleven and six. I mean a couple of
Speaker 1: weeks ago, it fell like the building was on fire.
Speaker 1: And this is where you got to give McDermott and
Speaker 1: Josh and some of the guys internally some credit. They
Speaker 1: handled it. They kept you know, kind of the train
Speaker 1: on the tracks a little lucky. However, you want to
Speaker 1: look at last week it played out they won the game,
Speaker 1: and today they beat the living shit out of the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: And that was Listen, a lot of people were betting
Speaker 1: on the Bills. It's another thing to be up thirty
Speaker 1: to three, and the Cowboys struggled to get over one
Speaker 1: hundred yards of offense with five minutes left to go
Speaker 1: in the game. I don't think anyone saw that. And
Speaker 1: that's kind of a rough reflection on Dallas that, you know,
Speaker 1: the Eagles, obviously, the story today changed. The defensive coordinators,
Speaker 1: guys are sick, they're working through some stuff. But how's
Speaker 1: that team going to go on the road and beat
Speaker 1: the Niners? Because you want to take Dallas seriously as
Speaker 1: this NFC contender, this team to go to the Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: and then you watch a game like today, you're.
Speaker 2: Like, how does that happen? Chad Millman Sharper Square, I'm
Speaker 2: kind of on a heater. I don't want to brag
Speaker 2: about it.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, how much of a heater?
Speaker 2: Four straight winning weeks four and one. Last week I
Speaker 2: had a little bit of an early Denver Bronco Sean Payton,
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson September slump. But shit is rolling downhill now.
Speaker 2: I'm like McVeigh and Stafford and Puka Nakua.
Speaker 3: Here's the thing. No matter how successful you are and
Speaker 3: whatever field you're in, yeah, when you're winning bets, it
Speaker 3: just like the whole day is brighter. And I say
Speaker 3: that like it just it doesn't matter how much you're
Speaker 3: wagering on it. You just feel good. Last week, we
Speaker 3: do our podcast on Sunday nights at seven point thirty.
Speaker 3: Normally I am biting fingernails and sweating until seven twenty
Speaker 3: nine because I don't know how our day is going
Speaker 3: to end because of all the games that matter so much.
Speaker 3: Last week we were so locked in at seven o'clock,
Speaker 3: I was doing dishes because like it was like I
Speaker 3: was done, it was over, and it just it felt lovely.
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna take the Steelers plus two at the
Speaker 2: Bengals Pittsburgh. That's a second look at a backup quarterback.
Speaker 2: They're a desperate team. Veteran coach. Great as an underdog.
Speaker 2: They are a cornered animal. Steelers plus two sharper square.
Speaker 3: Totally sharp. This was a two and a half. It
Speaker 3: got bumped down. Look, you have a couple of advantages.
Speaker 3: One no Jamar Chase. Two buying or selling very high
Speaker 3: on the Bengals, buying very low on the Steelers. Three
Speaker 3: no Dj Reader. And that is a huge deal in
Speaker 3: the middle of the defensive line for the Bengals. Not
Speaker 3: only is he great against the run, he's phenomenal against
Speaker 3: the past. So you're really going to be limiting your
Speaker 3: pass rush capabilities against Mason Rudolph. And don't think like,
Speaker 3: all right, we're going from Kenny Pikett to Mitch Trubisky
Speaker 3: to Mason Rudolph. He's been all the same. They're all
Speaker 3: the same, They're the same quarterback. And then you just
Speaker 3: mentioned the most important thing. Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin as
Speaker 3: a dog, most profitable coach the past twenty years. Mike
Speaker 3: Tomlin as a dog at home, Mike Tomlin as a
Speaker 3: dog in the division, Mike Tomlin as a dog late
Speaker 3: in the year, Mike Tomlin as a dog off a
Speaker 3: loss of more than seven like every category. It starts
Speaker 3: at sixty percent and gets up to ninety percent. No
Speaker 3: joke against the spread. So yes, the wise guys, they're
Speaker 3: going to be on the steers.
Speaker 2: I'm not getting the best number at Pickham. I thought
Speaker 2: it was one of the bets of the year. I'll
Speaker 2: take Dallas plus one and a half of the Dolphins.
Speaker 2: I have a theory very good teams who are physically
Speaker 2: humiliated on big TV games come back the following week.
Speaker 2: It's not just losing, it's being humiliated, physically pushed around.
Speaker 2: And Dallas is a physical team. Miami's not.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: I do think they generate since Week five of very
Speaker 2: nice pass for us. That's a Fangio defense. But I
Speaker 2: think Dallas has something to prove. I think they were embarrassed.
Speaker 2: I think they're a good football team. I'm going to
Speaker 2: take Dallas to win by about a touchdown plus one
Speaker 2: and a half here Sharper square.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the wise guys are on the Cowboys. This opened
Speaker 3: it too. It's been bet down. There's places where it's
Speaker 3: one you mentioned pick him as well, like it would
Speaker 3: not surprise me and some of the rumblings I've heard
Speaker 3: in the market from professional betters. If Dallas ended up
Speaker 3: as the favorite in this game. So I will say
Speaker 3: it's very important you get Dallas as an underdog if
Speaker 3: you like them, because the trends start to work against
Speaker 3: you if they become the favorite in terms of covering.
Speaker 3: So you want to get them at the plus number.
Speaker 3: But for all the reasons you said like, there are
Speaker 3: a lot of trends that will back up the idea
Speaker 3: that when you are a team that has been blown
Speaker 3: out and then you are going on the road again
Speaker 3: as an underdog, you are the team that people should
Speaker 3: be backing. So in agreement so far, two for two
Speaker 3: Kyle Cowhert.
Speaker 2: The number has been bumped up. All of our odds
Speaker 2: provided by Draft Kings. I'm talking to Chad Milman CCO
Speaker 2: Action Network Patriots plus seven at the Broncos. Whether could
Speaker 2: be crappy? Seven's a lot of points, Denver, can Nicholan
Speaker 2: dime you? Bailey Zappi is okay, He's not great. But
Speaker 2: my takeaway is this is a low scoring, ugly, crappy
Speaker 2: weather game. At six, I would probably stay away. At seven,
Speaker 2: I would take New England. That's a lot of points
Speaker 2: in lousy weather. We've had huge rain through southern California.
Speaker 2: It's all moving into the mountains Denver, Colorado over the
Speaker 2: next two to three days. Patriots plus seven sharper square.
Speaker 3: Sharp ish, Like, there's a lot better games on the board.
Speaker 3: There's not a huge edge with the Patriots at plus seven.
Speaker 3: The challenge for this game is that the Broncos prior
Speaker 3: to last week had been living off of turnover. Yes,
Speaker 3: that's how they were winning these games. Right, stuff always
Speaker 3: evens out, It always evens out, except they're playing Bailey Zape.
Speaker 3: So what is the formula for winning for the Broncos.
Speaker 3: They're playing bad quarterbacks and getting turnovers. So what are
Speaker 3: they getting they're getting I would argue Bailey Zapi is
Speaker 3: not a good quarterback in bad weather, in altitude, in
Speaker 3: a hostile situation. This is Taylor made to be a
Speaker 3: turnover masterpiece for the Denver Broncos. Look at what happened
Speaker 3: last week with the Chiefs, Right, the Patriots were in
Speaker 3: position to keep that game close. They come out of
Speaker 3: the locker room. Bailey Zappy second throw he's rolling out,
Speaker 3: throws it directly to a Chiefs defensive back, like doesn't
Speaker 3: even There's not even a Patriots receiver there. And that
Speaker 3: is going to happen two or three times in a game,
Speaker 3: and a couple of those times, at least one of
Speaker 3: those times, the Broncos are going to catch the ball,
Speaker 3: and that's going to be the way the game changes.
Speaker 3: I would not be comfortable betting the Patriots in the spot.
Speaker 3: I would bet the under though.
Speaker 2: All Right, one more dog Ravens plus five and a
Speaker 2: half at the Niners. They're a bit beat up, but
Speaker 2: Harbaugh's an underdog. NFC teams facing for the first time
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson. Now, the Niners have excellent linebackers, Twitchy Fred Warner.
Speaker 2: They should be able to be more than competent against Lamar.
Speaker 2: But if you've never faced and you don't have anybody
Speaker 2: in practice to duplicate it, it can be an avalanche.
Speaker 2: Five and a half is a silly number. This is
Speaker 2: a very close, physical game, hard to run on the Ravens.
Speaker 2: I'm taking the points all day here. I think it's
Speaker 2: a good game. I like the Niners. Five and a
Speaker 2: half seems almost disrespectful. Sharper square.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the wise guys are on the Ravens here.
Speaker 3: I will say I'm conflicted. I'm conflicted because a I've
Speaker 3: got a decent sized bed on Christian McCaffrey at twenty
Speaker 3: five to one to win the MVP. And let's face it,
Speaker 3: this is the mv people, right, you got Brock Purdy
Speaker 3: at about minus two hundred, you got Lamar Jackson at
Speaker 3: about three to one, and depending on the book, you've
Speaker 3: got Christian McCaffrey is the third shortest odds or Dak
Speaker 3: Prescott or Dak Prescott's third shortest, and McCaffrey is four shortest.
Speaker 3: So in my heart of hearts, what I'm hoping for
Speaker 3: is Christian McCaffrey is dominant and that the Niners win
Speaker 3: the game, and that the next two weeks it's just
Speaker 3: a coronation for Christian McCaffrey, and I win my Christian
Speaker 3: McCaffrey twenty five to one MVP bet. The problem is
Speaker 3: that everything you just said, Lamar Jackson against the NFC,
Speaker 3: that's not a sort of quirky to take sixteen and
Speaker 3: one anomaly. It's because there's nobody like Lamar Jackson that
Speaker 3: these NFC teams can prepare when they are playing him
Speaker 3: number two. There are like some concerns. I haven't seen
Speaker 3: the injury reports from today, but look, i'msted and Hargrave
Speaker 3: on the defensive line for the Niners when they were
Speaker 3: missing last week, the Cardinals gained nearly four hundred yards, right,
Speaker 3: and they kept it close. So, and we also don't
Speaker 3: know about Leonore is he going to be playing in
Speaker 3: the defensive backfield. When he started to play that defensive
Speaker 3: backfield was much better. So I do think there are
Speaker 3: some concerns. But I generally think the wise guys are
Speaker 3: looking at this and saying, the public is so high
Speaker 3: in the Niners. And there are reasons to be high
Speaker 3: in the Niners. Right. They are undefeated when Deebo Samuel
Speaker 3: and Trent Williams are playing, and they are beating teams
Speaker 3: by double digits, they are a legit team. I do
Speaker 3: believe the Niners will win the Super Bowl, and I
Speaker 3: do believe we will look back on this team and
Speaker 3: think it is historically great for the past generation. With
Speaker 3: the combination of Kyle Shanahan. Who you think this? I
Speaker 3: think this. A lot of people who cover football think this.
Speaker 3: He's a brilliant coach who has had bad injury luck
Speaker 3: and not exactly the perfect people for what is an
Speaker 3: incredible system. And I think he has that. He's had
Speaker 3: luck on his side for health. But I think this
Speaker 3: week the Ravens are probably going to be the sharp side.
Speaker 2: All right, Tampa Bay, let's go to some favorites minus
Speaker 2: one and a half. C J. Bethard probably plays Jacksonville's
Speaker 2: in a funk. Trevor Lawrence is banged up. I don't
Speaker 2: think he's been healthy in three weeks. We have to
Speaker 2: be honest about this. Baker Mayfield, with weapons and reasonable protections,
Speaker 2: the best quarterback in his division. He plays with a
Speaker 2: great deal of confidence and emotion. I think he feels
Speaker 2: really good right now. Todd Bowles is letting him kind
Speaker 2: of control the offense. I know they're a favorite. I
Speaker 2: tend to like dogs, but CJ. Bethard is an average,
Speaker 2: average backup. I'm gonna take the Buck Sharper square.
Speaker 3: No real consensus on what side is the right side here.
Speaker 3: The Bucks were two and a half point underdogs when
Speaker 3: this game opened. Before we have the insight on Trevor Lawrence,
Speaker 3: I will say what's interesting here. Baker Mayfield no joke.
Speaker 3: He was elite against the Green Bay Packers, like I think.
Speaker 3: He was twenty one of twenty eight north of three
Speaker 3: hundred yards, four touchdowns and all season long, the wise
Speaker 3: guys have been backing the Bucks, and the Bucks have
Speaker 3: been one of those teams where for three quarters they're amazing,
Speaker 3: but there'll be four or five drives in the game
Speaker 3: where Mike Evans drops a ball or Baker throws a pick,
Speaker 3: and like it just puts the game a little bit
Speaker 3: out of reach for them. But they've generally played really,
Speaker 3: really well. So I can't fault you for liking Baker
Speaker 3: in this spot. It's a scary spot because you're also
Speaker 3: backing Baker after he was just as good as he's
Speaker 3: ever been. I know, but we see j Bether. Yeah,
Speaker 3: you're taking a short home favorite.
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to games. I want you to
Speaker 2: talk me into so. I have two rules in life.
Speaker 2: Number one, don't do meth no winners. Number two, always
Speaker 2: take a team favored by four because the odds makers
Speaker 2: are telling you, we'd rather do three. That's what we
Speaker 2: want to do. We can't. This team's better Rams tonight.
Speaker 2: They're just better than the Saints. It'll be a coaching mismatch.
Speaker 2: Now it's down at three and a half, but at four,
Speaker 2: I thought it was a great bet. Bears minus four
Speaker 2: to four and a half. I have been betting best
Speaker 2: quarterback in games. But I think ibra Flus is coaching
Speaker 2: for his job. I don't think Arizona's guy's coaching for
Speaker 2: a job. I think Justin Field is playing for his job. Oh,
Speaker 2: this is a this is a big game, a Dome
Speaker 2: team going to crappy weather. It'll be it won't be
Speaker 2: a blizzard. The weather is kind of unseasonably mild in
Speaker 2: the Midwest. But I think the urgency and intensity here.
Speaker 2: Also remember last year how teams after they played the Niners,
Speaker 2: like all lost. We're not tracking it this year as much,
Speaker 2: and the numbers aren't the same, but when you play,
Speaker 2: when you play San Francisco, there are repercussions. They're a
Speaker 2: really physical team. I think Arizona played spirited football. It's
Speaker 2: a really bad roster. The Bears aren't a bad roster.
Speaker 2: I want to take Chicago Sharper square a square.
Speaker 3: The wise guys are on the Cardinals. The game was
Speaker 3: at four and a half, it got that down to four.
Speaker 3: I'd actually take it one step further. I don't think
Speaker 3: ebra Fluis is playing for his job. I think he's
Speaker 3: auditioning for his next coordinator job. I think Justin Fields
Speaker 3: is auditioning for the next team he's going to play on.
Speaker 3: I think that as a Bears fan, we saw what
Speaker 3: we saw last week against the Browns in that second
Speaker 3: half where just Fields was like seven of nineteen for
Speaker 3: sixty yards, and that offense was not able to execute,
Speaker 3: And at some point that's on the quarterback and his
Speaker 3: inability to find the right receivers and so, and on
Speaker 3: the coach for coaching a defense that gave up the
Speaker 3: game to Joe Flacco and had a ten point lead.
Speaker 3: There's a stat that we had that we were talking
Speaker 3: about on the Favorites podcast. The Bears, I think this season,
Speaker 3: or of only the last two seasons, have had ten
Speaker 3: point leads in the fourth quarter six times. They're three
Speaker 3: and three. Everybody else in the league the past two
Speaker 3: seasons something like ninety three and one. Literally, it's like
Speaker 3: a ninety three percent win rate. So there's a lot
Speaker 3: of issues with that Bears team. I think that what
Speaker 3: we got in the Cardinals is a team that is
Speaker 3: just always going to be undervalued. And I don't think
Speaker 3: if you look at the market, there's going to be
Speaker 3: any professional better who says, oh yeah, I'm comfortable betting
Speaker 3: the Bears is more than a field goal favorite, which
Speaker 3: is why the line moved down. Also, don't get Kyler
Speaker 3: Murray against the spread on the road fifteen and five.
Speaker 3: So you're talking about a guy who was very good
Speaker 3: at covering the spread, and by the way, he also
Speaker 3: covered it last weekend that number was bouncing around. So
Speaker 3: I like what. I like what Kyler Murray can do here?
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 2: Finally, dumpster dive, what's something that I would probably be
Speaker 2: appalled with, but you think is pretty tasty? Mean you
Speaker 2: all say this. I thought about Eagles minus twelve, they're
Speaker 2: bound to win.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think look in any other scenario, you're looking
Speaker 3: at Raiders plus ten against the Chiefs, You're looking at
Speaker 3: Giants plus twelve against the Eagles. I'm not going to
Speaker 3: ask you to do those things. I'm not going to
Speaker 3: do those things this week. I think there's a lot
Speaker 3: of wonkingition in those games, and I think professional betters
Speaker 3: are sort of divided on really betting those numbers. They're
Speaker 3: not really looking to do it. And I interest you
Speaker 3: in the Atlanta Falcons minus one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but by the way MacIntyre's on this, he's like,
Speaker 2: that's the sharp side this week it is.
Speaker 3: I mean, look that number. I bet Atlanta at plus
Speaker 3: two and a half, and I know what I said.
Speaker 3: I said, you got to be wary of those games
Speaker 3: that bounce from the one side as the underdog is
Speaker 3: now the favorite. But the Colts are really kind of frauds.
Speaker 3: And I don't like Shane Steichen. He should be getting
Speaker 3: votes for Coach of the Year what he has done
Speaker 3: with that team, what he has done with Gardner Minshew,
Speaker 3: who I think had won two games as a starter
Speaker 3: before this season, Like he has put them in a position.
Speaker 3: But also you've got to think about the teams they've
Speaker 3: beaten during the streak that they've been on have not
Speaker 3: been very good. And now, if you want to talk
Speaker 3: about a coach who is coaching for his job, you're
Speaker 3: talking about Arthur Smith, and he's putting Taylor Heineke back
Speaker 3: in there. Also, because the Colts defense is just trash,
Speaker 3: like they can't really stop the run. They were good
Speaker 3: before Grover Stewart on his ped suspension, they haven't been
Speaker 3: good since they're in the middle of transitioning that defense.
Speaker 3: It's just not a very good defense, so I think.
Speaker 3: And also the Falcons offensive line, which was really injured.
Speaker 3: They had many players who were out or questionable heading
Speaker 3: into the game against the Panthers back at home on turf,
Speaker 3: Arthur Smith is gonna have to be as creative as
Speaker 3: he possibly can to keep this team in the hunt.
Speaker 3: I like the Falcons here. There's one more that I like,
Speaker 3: probably not worth your time. It's a corner TV game.
Speaker 3: Are you ready? Tennessee Titans plus two and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, the way Seattle won, people fall in love
Speaker 2: with their They really have some really fun young athletes.
Speaker 2: But vayble at home, they're getting what three? What is
Speaker 2: it now?
Speaker 3: Two and a half? Did it move to three? I
Speaker 3: haven't even noticed did it?
Speaker 2: It may have moved to three.
Speaker 3: I'm checking right now. If it did, all the better
Speaker 3: then go get go get that, really, because that's that's
Speaker 3: the game that the wise guys love. And I know
Speaker 3: it sounds they like.
Speaker 2: Tennessee plus two and a half. That's the that's they
Speaker 2: love it, love it?
Speaker 3: Why explain love so on the team that just had
Speaker 3: the dramatic win in prime time by the team that
Speaker 3: just had the devastating loss. Mike Vrabel as an underdog.
Speaker 3: He's twenty six and twenty eight straight up as an underdog,
Speaker 3: right like, this is a guy who just wins when
Speaker 3: he is counted out and his team is not supposed
Speaker 3: to win, let alone in the amount of time that
Speaker 3: he covers as an underdog. Him and Tomlin are the
Speaker 3: two guys that wise guys love to cover. They love
Speaker 3: to cover in these exact spots, like to bet on
Speaker 3: in these exact spots. So yeah, the wise guys are
Speaker 3: digging themselves. Some Tennessee Titans.
Speaker 2: Chad Millman, Happy Holiday, CCO Action Network All lads provided
Speaker 2: by Draft King. Great talking to you, buddy.
Speaker 3: Great seeing you too, brother. Happy Holidays to you and
Speaker 3: the entire crew.
Speaker 1: The volume