1
00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:02,600
Speaker 1: The volume.

2
00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:08,559
Speaker 2: This week on Prime Cuts, Baby Chad Millman, Sharper Square,

3
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,960
Speaker 2: John Middlecuff on the Buffalo Bill's resurgence, My top takes

4
00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:21,400
Speaker 2: the week. How about them Rams? There were two games

5
00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:23,680
Speaker 2: this week on the docket that I really really liked.

6
00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:25,840
Speaker 2: One of them I talked about this on FS. One

7
00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:30,520
Speaker 2: was the Rams tonight minus four, three and a half

8
00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:34,200
Speaker 2: against Derek Carr and the Saints. McVeigh in a short

9
00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:37,280
Speaker 2: week has won six of seven games. Offensive coaches on

10
00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,440
Speaker 2: a short week can be really really good against defensive coaches.

11
00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:45,400
Speaker 2: They can do little tweaks with their quarterback and their offense.

12
00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:48,400
Speaker 2: An offensive culture, I think always has a bit of

13
00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:52,000
Speaker 2: an advantage on a short week, especially if you're playing

14
00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:53,840
Speaker 2: at home. And McVeigh is six and one in these

15
00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:57,040
Speaker 2: spots now seven and one. And also I don't think

16
00:00:57,120 --> 00:00:59,320
Speaker 2: Dennis Allen's a very good coach. The last two weeks

17
00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:04,520
Speaker 2: I've watched mcy work Ron rivera of the Commanders. Commanders

18
00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:08,440
Speaker 2: late game situational football was embarrassing, and I thought Dennis

19
00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:12,240
Speaker 2: Allen's halftime move right before half was a swing and

20
00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:16,280
Speaker 2: a miss. So you know, I go on and on

21
00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:19,520
Speaker 2: about this, but May is having an unbelievable year. If

22
00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,240
Speaker 2: you watch all the motions and all the shifting and

23
00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:26,760
Speaker 2: all the manipulation on virtually every play, Saints lineup. They

24
00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:28,959
Speaker 2: don't use motion. I mean most of the time they

25
00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,959
Speaker 2: don't use motion. They line up. They don't put the

26
00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:35,679
Speaker 2: defense in conflict. It's much easier for a defense to

27
00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:39,760
Speaker 2: just line up, see what you're doing, and go. The

28
00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:45,360
Speaker 2: Rams are using shifts and motions and these multiple sets

29
00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:48,840
Speaker 2: where you've got three receivers, jumbo sets. It puts a

30
00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:51,840
Speaker 2: lot of conflict and a lot of decision making. Throw

31
00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:55,760
Speaker 2: in some motion. The Niners with Kyle Shanahan lead the

32
00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:59,080
Speaker 2: league in motion, along with Miami with an offensive coach,

33
00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:02,520
Speaker 2: and the Rams that offensive coach. It is checkers and

34
00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:08,720
Speaker 2: chess and McVeagh, McDaniel, Andy Reid, Shanahan. It's a different

35
00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:12,520
Speaker 2: looking sport. I mean it's a different looking sport. So

36
00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:15,320
Speaker 2: and mcveay's had his way two and oh against defensive

37
00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:18,040
Speaker 2: coach Pete Carroll one to oh against Ron Rivera want

38
00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,519
Speaker 2: to know, against Dennis Allen, two and oh against Arizona.

39
00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:22,320
Speaker 2: He lost earlier in the year when the Rams were

40
00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:26,000
Speaker 2: kind of beat up to Mike Tomlin, the Steelers but

41
00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:30,200
Speaker 2: since Thanksgiving, Matt Stafford fourteen touchdowns, one pick and a

42
00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:34,240
Speaker 2: passer rating of over one fourteen. And I think, you know,

43
00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,880
Speaker 2: one of the things that jumps out to me is

44
00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:40,520
Speaker 2: that mcvah and less Need the GM really work hand

45
00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:42,640
Speaker 2: in hand, and that's really really important. I remember when

46
00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:44,760
Speaker 2: Jim Harball was with the Niners with Trent and Balkey,

47
00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:48,240
Speaker 2: and they couldn't stand each other. And there's some situations

48
00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:50,720
Speaker 2: in the NFL where the gms and the coaches aren't close.

49
00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,240
Speaker 2: Mickey Loomis and Sean Payton when they were in New

50
00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:57,440
Speaker 2: Orleans were best friends. Really matters. But you know, less

51
00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:02,040
Speaker 2: Need and mc mcvay's got a great sense for offense.

52
00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:06,680
Speaker 2: They find Puka Nakua in the fifth round, and they

53
00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,520
Speaker 2: also go, get here's a prime example of an offensive culture.

54
00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,960
Speaker 2: So dots and the interior offensive lineman for the Rams,

55
00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:16,480
Speaker 2: they pick him up in a trade on the interior

56
00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:19,640
Speaker 2: the online from the Steelers. Steelers weren't going to start

57
00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:24,919
Speaker 2: Dotson the guard. He's now the fourth highest redded guard

58
00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:27,600
Speaker 2: in the NFL with Sean McVay. Steelers weren't going to

59
00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:30,480
Speaker 2: start him. So and I go on and on about this,

60
00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:36,320
Speaker 2: but McVeigh is the preparation, the in game management, and

61
00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:38,600
Speaker 2: I think a lot of times that the media beats

62
00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,280
Speaker 2: up on coaches for some clock stuff late in games.

63
00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:46,400
Speaker 2: It's fast moving, it's fluid. Nobody's perfect. But I'll take

64
00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:49,400
Speaker 2: the offensive guys over the defensive guys every time. And

65
00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:51,560
Speaker 2: I also think one of the advantages the Rams have

66
00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:54,000
Speaker 2: because they don't have good special teams. They're not a

67
00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:56,200
Speaker 2: super Bowl team in my opinion. They're a team that

68
00:03:56,240 --> 00:04:00,400
Speaker 2: can go. They'll probably end up getting into the playoffs

69
00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:03,160
Speaker 2: and facing Detroit in Detroit, and I would probably take

70
00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:05,800
Speaker 2: the Lions. They have more experience, they have a dominant

71
00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,320
Speaker 2: offensive line. Jared Goff is very good at home when

72
00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:10,600
Speaker 2: he gets on his spot and not rushed, and the

73
00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:12,640
Speaker 2: Rams pass rush can be a little hit and miss.

74
00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:16,679
Speaker 2: Their special teams aren't good, their secondaries Young got torched

75
00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:18,800
Speaker 2: over the top a couple of times tonight first half

76
00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,360
Speaker 2: and second half. That's what Rams games are. But they've

77
00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,080
Speaker 2: scored at least twenty seven points, I think, in four

78
00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:26,160
Speaker 2: straight games. And I thought they should have beaten the Ravens.

79
00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:28,599
Speaker 2: It was a go either way game, but we'd seen

80
00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:31,800
Speaker 2: other teams in the NFC go out to Baltimore, Detroit

81
00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,240
Speaker 2: and Seattle and get smoked. The Rams went out there

82
00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:36,360
Speaker 2: and went toe to toe with Baltimore, a really good

83
00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,520
Speaker 2: football team. So I just think you're looking at a

84
00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:43,200
Speaker 2: Rams team that has made over the last six weeks.

85
00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:46,200
Speaker 2: They are a completely different football team. A lot of

86
00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,279
Speaker 2: it is on offense. Their special teams weren't good early,

87
00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:51,479
Speaker 2: are not good now. Their secondary is okay, it's okay now.

88
00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:55,280
Speaker 2: It's the offensive improvement. Guys have gotten healthy. Stafford's getting

89
00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,640
Speaker 2: time to throw, Kyra and Williams the running back, small

90
00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:03,640
Speaker 2: guy but very powerful, shifty, and mcveigh's offense is really

91
00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,440
Speaker 2: a ball control offense. You know, you think McVeigh, you

92
00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:10,839
Speaker 2: know you think these offensive coaches. You know it's big,

93
00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:13,599
Speaker 2: over the top plays. It really isn't with McVeigh. He

94
00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:15,640
Speaker 2: was at his best when Gurley was in his prime,

95
00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,360
Speaker 2: and now Williams in his prime. That's really when he's

96
00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,840
Speaker 2: at his best when he can rely on a fifteen

97
00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:24,760
Speaker 2: to eighteen carry running back. And also Cooper Cup's a

98
00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:27,560
Speaker 2: big receiver. Puka Nakup is a big receiver. He uses

99
00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:31,360
Speaker 2: those highly effectively. So it is all rolling for the Rams.

100
00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,520
Speaker 2: Now they're hot. It was a coaching mismatch. They get

101
00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:37,440
Speaker 2: a scheduling break and they feel like a playoff team.

102
00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:40,400
Speaker 2: You know, Philadelphia, the Eagles really remind me of the

103
00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:42,560
Speaker 2: Kansas City Chiefs. I still think they're a really good

104
00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:46,320
Speaker 2: football team. They've just had a brutal schedule. They can't

105
00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:48,800
Speaker 2: catch a break. There's some fatigue. They're not very good

106
00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,679
Speaker 2: in the back end of their defense, and they find themselves.

107
00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:54,159
Speaker 2: They're going to make the playoffs because of Dallas's lost.

108
00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:56,000
Speaker 2: They got a break there. They're gonna make the playoffs.

109
00:05:57,600 --> 00:05:59,760
Speaker 2: And outside of San Francisco, I think they could win

110
00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:03,279
Speaker 2: every single game. I mean, I watched them play the

111
00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:06,280
Speaker 2: Rams earlier this year, pushed them around in Los Angeles.

112
00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:08,880
Speaker 2: I've watched them play the Cowboys twice. They match up

113
00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:12,520
Speaker 2: fine Detroit. If Detroit had to go on the road

114
00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,520
Speaker 2: to Philadelphia, I'd take Philadelphia Jared Goff on the road cold,

115
00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:19,200
Speaker 2: whether or not the same quarterback. So I think Philadelphia's fine.

116
00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:23,360
Speaker 2: You know, it's recency biased. They just lost again. They

117
00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:26,520
Speaker 2: look cooked. They're not a great team. Kansas City's not

118
00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:28,960
Speaker 2: a great team. I mean the Kadarius Tony if they

119
00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:30,760
Speaker 2: were a great team, wouldn't get on the field again.

120
00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:31,520
Speaker 3: They need him.

121
00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:36,719
Speaker 2: They need Canarius Tony in Philadelphia. For all the misgivings

122
00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:41,600
Speaker 2: about the Eagles, they had this game one. You know,

123
00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,719
Speaker 2: these have been close games with Buffalo Dallas. They got whacked,

124
00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,000
Speaker 2: but they won a close game against Dallas. Earlier they

125
00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:49,960
Speaker 2: were in a close game against Buffalo. This is a

126
00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:53,000
Speaker 2: good football operation. It's a good intense football team, and

127
00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:56,039
Speaker 2: I think Philadelphia is gonna be fine. There are teams

128
00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,479
Speaker 2: in this league. You know, if you have a bad CEO,

129
00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,240
Speaker 2: the business gets worse over time. You saw that with

130
00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:04,760
Speaker 2: Brandon Staley and the Chargers. They got worse every week.

131
00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:09,080
Speaker 2: They opened the season nearly beating Miami, looked really interesting,

132
00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:13,920
Speaker 2: and then a poorly run business gets bet Washington. The

133
00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:17,600
Speaker 2: Commanders with Ron Rivera, they were a viable team seven

134
00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,080
Speaker 2: weeks ago. They just get worse. It feels like every

135
00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:22,720
Speaker 2: week you can see some of these defensive coaches they

136
00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:26,640
Speaker 2: feel Jurassic. They're out of touch. You know. Meanwhile, you've

137
00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:31,840
Speaker 2: got Shane Steichen taking Gardner Minshew and beating the Steelers.

138
00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:36,000
Speaker 2: You've got Sean McVay. I think Sean McVay right now,

139
00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:38,040
Speaker 2: week to week is doing the best job of coaching

140
00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,640
Speaker 2: in the entire league really outplayed the Commanders from the

141
00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:44,560
Speaker 2: very beginning. And you just saw a classic, young, smart,

142
00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:48,640
Speaker 2: progressive offensive head coach just getting better offensively every week.

143
00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:51,560
Speaker 2: It's amazing. He takes a rookie Puka Nakua, he takes

144
00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:54,000
Speaker 2: Kyron Williams, who's now like the third best offensive player

145
00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:58,080
Speaker 2: in the league behind Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey. Folks,

146
00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:01,800
Speaker 2: that's coaching. Coaching is get the most out of your players.

147
00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,720
Speaker 2: And here in Los Angeles, nobody got less than Brandon Staley,

148
00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:08,840
Speaker 2: and nobody gets more than Sean McVay. The job he

149
00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:12,960
Speaker 2: has done this year is absolutely remarkable. He is squeezing

150
00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:16,480
Speaker 2: every ounce out of a defense that's Aaron Donald and kids,

151
00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:20,840
Speaker 2: and an offense which is guys mostly Stafford Cup, Tyler Higbee,

152
00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,560
Speaker 2: probably Rob Hanstein didn't play today, the right tackle a

153
00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:26,720
Speaker 2: little bit out of their prime, and then kids kyn

154
00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:30,960
Speaker 2: Williams and Puka Nakua. It is a marvel to watch

155
00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:32,680
Speaker 2: the Rams play. And I know I live in Los

156
00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:36,840
Speaker 2: Angeles and you're thinking, oh, Colin, you're going overboard. This

157
00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,680
Speaker 2: team was picked to win five games in Vegas, and

158
00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:48,000
Speaker 2: they have an opportunity to win ten. All right, everybody,

159
00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,640
Speaker 2: welcome in. It's the Colin Coward Podcast. You know who

160
00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:52,640
Speaker 2: I am, I hope by this point in my life.

161
00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:57,199
Speaker 2: And this is John Middlecoff three and out podcast at

162
00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,000
Speaker 2: the volume you see him all the time on our

163
00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:03,040
Speaker 2: digital stuff accounts and a former NFL scout. We start

164
00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,959
Speaker 2: with the obvious one. I did like Buffalo to win.

165
00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:07,960
Speaker 2: I do think this this league week to week. It

166
00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:10,520
Speaker 2: depends on the spot you're in. I think San Francisco

167
00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:14,000
Speaker 2: is unique in where their bad game is still good enough,

168
00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:15,760
Speaker 2: you know, to go to Cleveland and almost win if

169
00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:18,040
Speaker 2: they hit field goals. But most of the teams in

170
00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:20,400
Speaker 2: this league have just bad Sundays. They're off a big win,

171
00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:23,840
Speaker 2: they're you know, they're This was a spot for Buffalo.

172
00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:27,400
Speaker 2: James Cook now is becoming a real part of this offense.

173
00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:28,000
Speaker 3: Uh.

174
00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:31,199
Speaker 2: All of a sudden, Dallas on the road falls behind.

175
00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:35,080
Speaker 2: Dack's not the same quarterback behind. Are you surprised, however?

176
00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:40,880
Speaker 2: How the Bills ran the ball on the Dallas defense.

177
00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:44,080
Speaker 2: It was I don't remember seeing the Dallas defense run

178
00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:47,400
Speaker 2: defense that poor for a couple of years.

179
00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:51,080
Speaker 1: To me, one thing that Dallas over the last month,

180
00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:52,760
Speaker 1: why a lot of us have been buying in Is

181
00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:56,880
Speaker 1: because of their physicality, like just their overall toughness, and

182
00:09:56,960 --> 00:10:01,280
Speaker 1: today Buffalo kicked their ass. I mean that was a beatdown.

183
00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:04,600
Speaker 1: And I think I said last week when we watched

184
00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:08,240
Speaker 1: Buffalo pull that crazy game out against Kansas City, it's

185
00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:10,439
Speaker 1: hard to take them seriously when all their games are

186
00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:12,920
Speaker 1: like that. They were like the better version of the Chargers.

187
00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:14,600
Speaker 1: They just found a way to win some of them.

188
00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:18,400
Speaker 1: But today you gotta give them their ceiling. I mean,

189
00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:20,440
Speaker 1: they have a couple wins this year that Miami win

190
00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:23,319
Speaker 1: early in the season. Miami's pretty good. That game against

191
00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:26,320
Speaker 1: Dallas today, like their ceiling is pretty high. When they're

192
00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,600
Speaker 1: on obviously playing at home, the division is still open,

193
00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:32,720
Speaker 1: like the division is not set. Miami schedule is very hard.

194
00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:35,559
Speaker 1: They played Dallas, they play the Ravens, then they finished

195
00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:39,000
Speaker 1: with Buffalo. You look at buffalo schedule, at the Chargers,

196
00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:42,160
Speaker 1: who mailed that thing in the Pats, and then they finished,

197
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:45,640
Speaker 1: like we said, with Miami. Listen, they've kind of reeled

198
00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:48,440
Speaker 1: me back in because today was as much about Josh

199
00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,400
Speaker 1: Allen just going Lebron James or Steph Curry. It was

200
00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:56,240
Speaker 1: more the defense annihilated McCarthy's offense. And like you said,

201
00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,360
Speaker 1: the run game. What has Buffalo always lacked. It's they've

202
00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:01,559
Speaker 1: never had a run back beside Josh, Well, if you

203
00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:03,320
Speaker 1: can get a guy, you don't need him to get

204
00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:04,840
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty yards every game. But if you

205
00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,720
Speaker 1: can rely on an individual to be one hundred yard

206
00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:11,280
Speaker 1: a game guy in cold weather games, hard not to

207
00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:13,640
Speaker 1: like Buffalo and look at him a little differently after

208
00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,199
Speaker 1: the last sixty minutes, right right, you know.

209
00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:19,040
Speaker 2: I was thinking about the Steeler teams with Tomlin when

210
00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,960
Speaker 2: Ben was in his prime. Is that and they had like,

211
00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:26,200
Speaker 2: you know, a lavian bell, And that's what Buffalo reminds

212
00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,560
Speaker 2: me of. They didn't win, you know, they got a

213
00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:32,120
Speaker 2: Super Bowl, no question, a couple with Ben. But this

214
00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:35,240
Speaker 2: is what Buffalo reminds me. A defensive coach, a defensive

215
00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:38,200
Speaker 2: culture with a star quarterback that's about seventy percent of

216
00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:41,400
Speaker 2: the offense. And they when they had the star running

217
00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:46,160
Speaker 2: back kind of in his prime as an energy, a twitchy,

218
00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,920
Speaker 2: energy player. There's always Pittsburgh always had a star receiver

219
00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:53,960
Speaker 2: on the outside. They draft and developed receivers better than Buffalo.

220
00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:58,080
Speaker 2: But this is what this is really what they remind

221
00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:00,640
Speaker 2: me of. This is a big Ben's Steeler team with

222
00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:06,960
Speaker 2: a defensive coach, defensive culture that has enough offensive pieces

223
00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:10,440
Speaker 2: to win. And I when I watch them today, I'm like,

224
00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:13,520
Speaker 2: not everybody peaks at the right time. Rams are a

225
00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:16,199
Speaker 2: totally different team than six weeks ago. Don't even look

226
00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,360
Speaker 2: like the same team. I mean, that's a dangerous team.

227
00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:22,000
Speaker 2: Now they're blowing people out. So I do you buy

228
00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:26,079
Speaker 2: my bills? Look like a Steeler comp Ben Josh Allen

229
00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:29,560
Speaker 2: defensive coach where they're very, very energized running back.

230
00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:31,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, don't hate it at all. And like the Pittsburgh

231
00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:33,479
Speaker 1: they're comfortable playing outside.

232
00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:34,120
Speaker 2: Right.

233
00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:36,440
Speaker 1: That's and look at the AFC. It's hard to know

234
00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,520
Speaker 1: how the seeding is gonna shake out, but they would

235
00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:41,559
Speaker 1: be comfortable. We've seen them go on the road in

236
00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,520
Speaker 1: Kansas City and play well, go on the road in

237
00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:48,840
Speaker 1: Baltimore and play yeah, right, Cleveland problem, Miami, no problem,

238
00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:52,760
Speaker 1: they won't. They view Miami as an inferior team. Right,

239
00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:55,400
Speaker 1: So you go listen if this team gets in there

240
00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:57,200
Speaker 1: and they have a chance to run the table and

241
00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:59,240
Speaker 1: get to eleven and six. I mean a couple of

242
00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:01,319
Speaker 1: weeks ago, it fell like the building was on fire.

243
00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:03,480
Speaker 1: And this is where you got to give McDermott and

244
00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,760
Speaker 1: Josh and some of the guys internally some credit. They

245
00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:09,560
Speaker 1: handled it. They kept you know, kind of the train

246
00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:12,240
Speaker 1: on the tracks a little lucky. However, you want to

247
00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:14,320
Speaker 1: look at last week it played out they won the game,

248
00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:16,960
Speaker 1: and today they beat the living shit out of the Cowboys.

249
00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:19,240
Speaker 1: And that was Listen, a lot of people were betting

250
00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:21,840
Speaker 1: on the Bills. It's another thing to be up thirty

251
00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:24,120
Speaker 1: to three, and the Cowboys struggled to get over one

252
00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:26,160
Speaker 1: hundred yards of offense with five minutes left to go

253
00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:28,160
Speaker 1: in the game. I don't think anyone saw that. And

254
00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:31,760
Speaker 1: that's kind of a rough reflection on Dallas that, you know,

255
00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:35,320
Speaker 1: the Eagles, obviously, the story today changed. The defensive coordinators,

256
00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:38,400
Speaker 1: guys are sick, they're working through some stuff. But how's

257
00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:39,679
Speaker 1: that team going to go on the road and beat

258
00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:43,040
Speaker 1: the Niners? Because you want to take Dallas seriously as

259
00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:45,959
Speaker 1: this NFC contender, this team to go to the Super Bowl,

260
00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:48,559
Speaker 1: and then you watch a game like today, you're.

261
00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:52,920
Speaker 2: Like, how does that happen? Chad Millman Sharper Square, I'm

262
00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:54,679
Speaker 2: kind of on a heater. I don't want to brag

263
00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:55,120
Speaker 2: about it.

264
00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:56,800
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, how much of a heater?

265
00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:01,160
Speaker 2: Four straight winning weeks four and one. Last week I

266
00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,640
Speaker 2: had a little bit of an early Denver Bronco Sean Payton,

267
00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:08,400
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson September slump. But shit is rolling downhill now.

268
00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:11,000
Speaker 2: I'm like McVeigh and Stafford and Puka Nakua.

269
00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:16,280
Speaker 3: Here's the thing. No matter how successful you are and

270
00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:21,400
Speaker 3: whatever field you're in, yeah, when you're winning bets, it

271
00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:25,160
Speaker 3: just like the whole day is brighter. And I say

272
00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:28,160
Speaker 3: that like it just it doesn't matter how much you're

273
00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:33,240
Speaker 3: wagering on it. You just feel good. Last week, we

274
00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,600
Speaker 3: do our podcast on Sunday nights at seven point thirty.

275
00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:41,360
Speaker 3: Normally I am biting fingernails and sweating until seven twenty

276
00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:43,600
Speaker 3: nine because I don't know how our day is going

277
00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:46,240
Speaker 3: to end because of all the games that matter so much.

278
00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:50,360
Speaker 3: Last week we were so locked in at seven o'clock,

279
00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:53,520
Speaker 3: I was doing dishes because like it was like I

280
00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:56,880
Speaker 3: was done, it was over, and it just it felt lovely.

281
00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:58,920
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna take the Steelers plus two at the

282
00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:03,280
Speaker 2: Bengals Pittsburgh. That's a second look at a backup quarterback.

283
00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:07,760
Speaker 2: They're a desperate team. Veteran coach. Great as an underdog.

284
00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:11,840
Speaker 2: They are a cornered animal. Steelers plus two sharper square.

285
00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:13,960
Speaker 3: Totally sharp. This was a two and a half. It

286
00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:16,720
Speaker 3: got bumped down. Look, you have a couple of advantages.

287
00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:21,920
Speaker 3: One no Jamar Chase. Two buying or selling very high

288
00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,760
Speaker 3: on the Bengals, buying very low on the Steelers. Three

289
00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,240
Speaker 3: no Dj Reader. And that is a huge deal in

290
00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,760
Speaker 3: the middle of the defensive line for the Bengals. Not

291
00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,120
Speaker 3: only is he great against the run, he's phenomenal against

292
00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:36,960
Speaker 3: the past. So you're really going to be limiting your

293
00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:40,000
Speaker 3: pass rush capabilities against Mason Rudolph. And don't think like,

294
00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:42,920
Speaker 3: all right, we're going from Kenny Pikett to Mitch Trubisky

295
00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,960
Speaker 3: to Mason Rudolph. He's been all the same. They're all

296
00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:49,120
Speaker 3: the same, They're the same quarterback. And then you just

297
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:52,840
Speaker 3: mentioned the most important thing. Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin as

298
00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,960
Speaker 3: a dog, most profitable coach the past twenty years. Mike

299
00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,920
Speaker 3: Tomlin as a dog at home, Mike Tomlin as a

300
00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,520
Speaker 3: dog in the division, Mike Tomlin as a dog late

301
00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:03,720
Speaker 3: in the year, Mike Tomlin as a dog off a

302
00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:07,360
Speaker 3: loss of more than seven like every category. It starts

303
00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:10,200
Speaker 3: at sixty percent and gets up to ninety percent. No

304
00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:14,720
Speaker 3: joke against the spread. So yes, the wise guys, they're

305
00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:15,840
Speaker 3: going to be on the steers.

306
00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:18,600
Speaker 2: I'm not getting the best number at Pickham. I thought

307
00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:20,400
Speaker 2: it was one of the bets of the year. I'll

308
00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:22,920
Speaker 2: take Dallas plus one and a half of the Dolphins.

309
00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:26,400
Speaker 2: I have a theory very good teams who are physically

310
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:30,480
Speaker 2: humiliated on big TV games come back the following week.

311
00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:35,360
Speaker 2: It's not just losing, it's being humiliated, physically pushed around.

312
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,360
Speaker 2: And Dallas is a physical team. Miami's not.

313
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:39,160
Speaker 3: Now.

314
00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:41,520
Speaker 2: I do think they generate since Week five of very

315
00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,600
Speaker 2: nice pass for us. That's a Fangio defense. But I

316
00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:47,520
Speaker 2: think Dallas has something to prove. I think they were embarrassed.

317
00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,240
Speaker 2: I think they're a good football team. I'm going to

318
00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:52,400
Speaker 2: take Dallas to win by about a touchdown plus one

319
00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:53,680
Speaker 2: and a half here Sharper square.

320
00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:55,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, the wise guys are on the Cowboys. This opened

321
00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:59,520
Speaker 3: it too. It's been bet down. There's places where it's

322
00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:03,360
Speaker 3: one you mentioned pick him as well, like it would

323
00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:06,120
Speaker 3: not surprise me and some of the rumblings I've heard

324
00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:09,000
Speaker 3: in the market from professional betters. If Dallas ended up

325
00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:11,840
Speaker 3: as the favorite in this game. So I will say

326
00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,199
Speaker 3: it's very important you get Dallas as an underdog if

327
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:16,479
Speaker 3: you like them, because the trends start to work against

328
00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:19,359
Speaker 3: you if they become the favorite in terms of covering.

329
00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,720
Speaker 3: So you want to get them at the plus number.

330
00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:24,000
Speaker 3: But for all the reasons you said like, there are

331
00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:25,960
Speaker 3: a lot of trends that will back up the idea

332
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,359
Speaker 3: that when you are a team that has been blown

333
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:30,600
Speaker 3: out and then you are going on the road again

334
00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:34,359
Speaker 3: as an underdog, you are the team that people should

335
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:38,480
Speaker 3: be backing. So in agreement so far, two for two

336
00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:39,400
Speaker 3: Kyle Cowhert.

337
00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:42,520
Speaker 2: The number has been bumped up. All of our odds

338
00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,359
Speaker 2: provided by Draft Kings. I'm talking to Chad Milman CCO

339
00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:48,280
Speaker 2: Action Network Patriots plus seven at the Broncos. Whether could

340
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,199
Speaker 2: be crappy? Seven's a lot of points, Denver, can Nicholan

341
00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:56,679
Speaker 2: dime you? Bailey Zappi is okay, He's not great. But

342
00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:59,960
Speaker 2: my takeaway is this is a low scoring, ugly, crappy

343
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,879
Speaker 2: weather game. At six, I would probably stay away. At seven,

344
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 2: I would take New England. That's a lot of points

345
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:09,000
Speaker 2: in lousy weather. We've had huge rain through southern California.

346
00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,040
Speaker 2: It's all moving into the mountains Denver, Colorado over the

347
00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:15,680
Speaker 2: next two to three days. Patriots plus seven sharper square.

348
00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:21,520
Speaker 3: Sharp ish, Like, there's a lot better games on the board.

349
00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:24,919
Speaker 3: There's not a huge edge with the Patriots at plus seven.

350
00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:30,879
Speaker 3: The challenge for this game is that the Broncos prior

351
00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,600
Speaker 3: to last week had been living off of turnover. Yes,

352
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,119
Speaker 3: that's how they were winning these games. Right, stuff always

353
00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 3: evens out, It always evens out, except they're playing Bailey Zape.

354
00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,840
Speaker 3: So what is the formula for winning for the Broncos.

355
00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:49,800
Speaker 3: They're playing bad quarterbacks and getting turnovers. So what are

356
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:52,879
Speaker 3: they getting they're getting I would argue Bailey Zapi is

357
00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:58,360
Speaker 3: not a good quarterback in bad weather, in altitude, in

358
00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:03,399
Speaker 3: a hostile situation. This is Taylor made to be a

359
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:07,520
Speaker 3: turnover masterpiece for the Denver Broncos. Look at what happened

360
00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:11,280
Speaker 3: last week with the Chiefs, Right, the Patriots were in

361
00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,399
Speaker 3: position to keep that game close. They come out of

362
00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:18,560
Speaker 3: the locker room. Bailey Zappy second throw he's rolling out,

363
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 3: throws it directly to a Chiefs defensive back, like doesn't

364
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:26,159
Speaker 3: even There's not even a Patriots receiver there. And that

365
00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 3: is going to happen two or three times in a game,

366
00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:30,600
Speaker 3: and a couple of those times, at least one of

367
00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:32,280
Speaker 3: those times, the Broncos are going to catch the ball,

368
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,159
Speaker 3: and that's going to be the way the game changes.

369
00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 3: I would not be comfortable betting the Patriots in the spot.

370
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:38,400
Speaker 3: I would bet the under though.

371
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,200
Speaker 2: All Right, one more dog Ravens plus five and a

372
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,119
Speaker 2: half at the Niners. They're a bit beat up, but

373
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:48,840
Speaker 2: Harbaugh's an underdog. NFC teams facing for the first time

374
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson. Now, the Niners have excellent linebackers, Twitchy Fred Warner.

375
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:58,879
Speaker 2: They should be able to be more than competent against Lamar.

376
00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:01,400
Speaker 2: But if you've never faced and you don't have anybody

377
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,000
Speaker 2: in practice to duplicate it, it can be an avalanche.

378
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,159
Speaker 2: Five and a half is a silly number. This is

379
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 2: a very close, physical game, hard to run on the Ravens.

380
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 2: I'm taking the points all day here. I think it's

381
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 2: a good game. I like the Niners. Five and a

382
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 2: half seems almost disrespectful. Sharper square.

383
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the wise guys are on the Ravens here.

384
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:23,640
Speaker 3: I will say I'm conflicted. I'm conflicted because a I've

385
00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:27,280
Speaker 3: got a decent sized bed on Christian McCaffrey at twenty

386
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,520
Speaker 3: five to one to win the MVP. And let's face it,

387
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 3: this is the mv people, right, you got Brock Purdy

388
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 3: at about minus two hundred, you got Lamar Jackson at

389
00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:39,360
Speaker 3: about three to one, and depending on the book, you've

390
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,400
Speaker 3: got Christian McCaffrey is the third shortest odds or Dak

391
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 3: Prescott or Dak Prescott's third shortest, and McCaffrey is four shortest.

392
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:50,440
Speaker 3: So in my heart of hearts, what I'm hoping for

393
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 3: is Christian McCaffrey is dominant and that the Niners win

394
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 3: the game, and that the next two weeks it's just

395
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 3: a coronation for Christian McCaffrey, and I win my Christian

396
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 3: McCaffrey twenty five to one MVP bet. The problem is

397
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:08,120
Speaker 3: that everything you just said, Lamar Jackson against the NFC,

398
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:12,119
Speaker 3: that's not a sort of quirky to take sixteen and

399
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 3: one anomaly. It's because there's nobody like Lamar Jackson that

400
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,880
Speaker 3: these NFC teams can prepare when they are playing him

401
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,920
Speaker 3: number two. There are like some concerns. I haven't seen

402
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 3: the injury reports from today, but look, i'msted and Hargrave

403
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:28,399
Speaker 3: on the defensive line for the Niners when they were

404
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:32,360
Speaker 3: missing last week, the Cardinals gained nearly four hundred yards, right,

405
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,120
Speaker 3: and they kept it close. So, and we also don't

406
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:36,760
Speaker 3: know about Leonore is he going to be playing in

407
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 3: the defensive backfield. When he started to play that defensive

408
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 3: backfield was much better. So I do think there are

409
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 3: some concerns. But I generally think the wise guys are

410
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 3: looking at this and saying, the public is so high

411
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 3: in the Niners. And there are reasons to be high

412
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 3: in the Niners. Right. They are undefeated when Deebo Samuel

413
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 3: and Trent Williams are playing, and they are beating teams

414
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:59,120
Speaker 3: by double digits, they are a legit team. I do

415
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 3: believe the Niners will win the Super Bowl, and I

416
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:03,639
Speaker 3: do believe we will look back on this team and

417
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,919
Speaker 3: think it is historically great for the past generation. With

418
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 3: the combination of Kyle Shanahan. Who you think this? I

419
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 3: think this. A lot of people who cover football think this.

420
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,360
Speaker 3: He's a brilliant coach who has had bad injury luck

421
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 3: and not exactly the perfect people for what is an

422
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 3: incredible system. And I think he has that. He's had

423
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,879
Speaker 3: luck on his side for health. But I think this

424
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 3: week the Ravens are probably going to be the sharp side.

425
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,960
Speaker 2: All right, Tampa Bay, let's go to some favorites minus

426
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 2: one and a half. C J. Bethard probably plays Jacksonville's

427
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:36,880
Speaker 2: in a funk. Trevor Lawrence is banged up. I don't

428
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 2: think he's been healthy in three weeks. We have to

429
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:44,119
Speaker 2: be honest about this. Baker Mayfield, with weapons and reasonable protections,

430
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 2: the best quarterback in his division. He plays with a

431
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 2: great deal of confidence and emotion. I think he feels

432
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 2: really good right now. Todd Bowles is letting him kind

433
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 2: of control the offense. I know they're a favorite. I

434
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,439
Speaker 2: tend to like dogs, but CJ. Bethard is an average,

435
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 2: average backup. I'm gonna take the Buck Sharper square.

436
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 3: No real consensus on what side is the right side here.

437
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 3: The Bucks were two and a half point underdogs when

438
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 3: this game opened. Before we have the insight on Trevor Lawrence,

439
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 3: I will say what's interesting here. Baker Mayfield no joke.

440
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:25,400
Speaker 3: He was elite against the Green Bay Packers, like I think.

441
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 3: He was twenty one of twenty eight north of three

442
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 3: hundred yards, four touchdowns and all season long, the wise

443
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 3: guys have been backing the Bucks, and the Bucks have

444
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 3: been one of those teams where for three quarters they're amazing,

445
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 3: but there'll be four or five drives in the game

446
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 3: where Mike Evans drops a ball or Baker throws a pick,

447
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,679
Speaker 3: and like it just puts the game a little bit

448
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 3: out of reach for them. But they've generally played really,

449
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 3: really well. So I can't fault you for liking Baker

450
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,879
Speaker 3: in this spot. It's a scary spot because you're also

451
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,160
Speaker 3: backing Baker after he was just as good as he's

452
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 3: ever been. I know, but we see j Bether. Yeah,

453
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:07,679
Speaker 3: you're taking a short home favorite.

454
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to games. I want you to

455
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 2: talk me into so. I have two rules in life.

456
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 2: Number one, don't do meth no winners. Number two, always

457
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 2: take a team favored by four because the odds makers

458
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 2: are telling you, we'd rather do three. That's what we

459
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,159
Speaker 2: want to do. We can't. This team's better Rams tonight.

460
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 2: They're just better than the Saints. It'll be a coaching mismatch.

461
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 2: Now it's down at three and a half, but at four,

462
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,440
Speaker 2: I thought it was a great bet. Bears minus four

463
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 2: to four and a half. I have been betting best

464
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 2: quarterback in games. But I think ibra Flus is coaching

465
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 2: for his job. I don't think Arizona's guy's coaching for

466
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 2: a job. I think Justin Field is playing for his job. Oh,

467
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 2: this is a this is a big game, a Dome

468
00:24:55,720 --> 00:25:01,160
Speaker 2: team going to crappy weather. It'll be it won't be

469
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 2: a blizzard. The weather is kind of unseasonably mild in

470
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:07,360
Speaker 2: the Midwest. But I think the urgency and intensity here.

471
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 2: Also remember last year how teams after they played the Niners,

472
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 2: like all lost. We're not tracking it this year as much,

473
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:18,160
Speaker 2: and the numbers aren't the same, but when you play,

474
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,919
Speaker 2: when you play San Francisco, there are repercussions. They're a

475
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 2: really physical team. I think Arizona played spirited football. It's

476
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 2: a really bad roster. The Bears aren't a bad roster.

477
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 2: I want to take Chicago Sharper square a square.

478
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 3: The wise guys are on the Cardinals. The game was

479
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 3: at four and a half, it got that down to four.

480
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,439
Speaker 3: I'd actually take it one step further. I don't think

481
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 3: ebra Fluis is playing for his job. I think he's

482
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 3: auditioning for his next coordinator job. I think Justin Fields

483
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 3: is auditioning for the next team he's going to play on.

484
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:55,199
Speaker 3: I think that as a Bears fan, we saw what

485
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,439
Speaker 3: we saw last week against the Browns in that second

486
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 3: half where just Fields was like seven of nineteen for

487
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:06,959
Speaker 3: sixty yards, and that offense was not able to execute,

488
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:10,239
Speaker 3: And at some point that's on the quarterback and his

489
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 3: inability to find the right receivers and so, and on

490
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 3: the coach for coaching a defense that gave up the

491
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 3: game to Joe Flacco and had a ten point lead.

492
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 3: There's a stat that we had that we were talking

493
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 3: about on the Favorites podcast. The Bears, I think this season,

494
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 3: or of only the last two seasons, have had ten

495
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 3: point leads in the fourth quarter six times. They're three

496
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 3: and three. Everybody else in the league the past two

497
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 3: seasons something like ninety three and one. Literally, it's like

498
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:43,400
Speaker 3: a ninety three percent win rate. So there's a lot

499
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 3: of issues with that Bears team. I think that what

500
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,159
Speaker 3: we got in the Cardinals is a team that is

501
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 3: just always going to be undervalued. And I don't think

502
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 3: if you look at the market, there's going to be

503
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 3: any professional better who says, oh yeah, I'm comfortable betting

504
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 3: the Bears is more than a field goal favorite, which

505
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 3: is why the line moved down. Also, don't get Kyler

506
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 3: Murray against the spread on the road fifteen and five.

507
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 3: So you're talking about a guy who was very good

508
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 3: at covering the spread, and by the way, he also

509
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:13,400
Speaker 3: covered it last weekend that number was bouncing around. So

510
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 3: I like what. I like what Kyler Murray can do here?

511
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:19,120
Speaker 3: All right?

512
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 2: Finally, dumpster dive, what's something that I would probably be

513
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 2: appalled with, but you think is pretty tasty? Mean you

514
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 2: all say this. I thought about Eagles minus twelve, they're

515
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 2: bound to win.

516
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think look in any other scenario, you're looking

517
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 3: at Raiders plus ten against the Chiefs, You're looking at

518
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 3: Giants plus twelve against the Eagles. I'm not going to

519
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 3: ask you to do those things. I'm not going to

520
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:49,919
Speaker 3: do those things this week. I think there's a lot

521
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 3: of wonkingition in those games, and I think professional betters

522
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 3: are sort of divided on really betting those numbers. They're

523
00:27:56,320 --> 00:28:00,120
Speaker 3: not really looking to do it. And I interest you

524
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 3: in the Atlanta Falcons minus one.

525
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, but by the way MacIntyre's on this, he's like,

526
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,239
Speaker 2: that's the sharp side this week it is.

527
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 3: I mean, look that number. I bet Atlanta at plus

528
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 3: two and a half, and I know what I said.

529
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:16,919
Speaker 3: I said, you got to be wary of those games

530
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 3: that bounce from the one side as the underdog is

531
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 3: now the favorite. But the Colts are really kind of frauds.

532
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:27,639
Speaker 3: And I don't like Shane Steichen. He should be getting

533
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 3: votes for Coach of the Year what he has done

534
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 3: with that team, what he has done with Gardner Minshew,

535
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,399
Speaker 3: who I think had won two games as a starter

536
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 3: before this season, Like he has put them in a position.

537
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 3: But also you've got to think about the teams they've

538
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 3: beaten during the streak that they've been on have not

539
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 3: been very good. And now, if you want to talk

540
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 3: about a coach who is coaching for his job, you're

541
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 3: talking about Arthur Smith, and he's putting Taylor Heineke back

542
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 3: in there. Also, because the Colts defense is just trash,

543
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 3: like they can't really stop the run. They were good

544
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:01,959
Speaker 3: before Grover Stewart on his ped suspension, they haven't been

545
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 3: good since they're in the middle of transitioning that defense.

546
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 3: It's just not a very good defense, so I think.

547
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 3: And also the Falcons offensive line, which was really injured.

548
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 3: They had many players who were out or questionable heading

549
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 3: into the game against the Panthers back at home on turf,

550
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 3: Arthur Smith is gonna have to be as creative as

551
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 3: he possibly can to keep this team in the hunt.

552
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 3: I like the Falcons here. There's one more that I like,

553
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 3: probably not worth your time. It's a corner TV game.

554
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 3: Are you ready? Tennessee Titans plus two and a half.

555
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, the way Seattle won, people fall in love

556
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 2: with their They really have some really fun young athletes.

557
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 2: But vayble at home, they're getting what three? What is

558
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 2: it now?

559
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 3: Two and a half? Did it move to three? I

560
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 3: haven't even noticed did it?

561
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 2: It may have moved to three.

562
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 3: I'm checking right now. If it did, all the better

563
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 3: then go get go get that, really, because that's that's

564
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 3: the game that the wise guys love. And I know

565
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 3: it sounds they like.

566
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 2: Tennessee plus two and a half. That's the that's they

567
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:09,959
Speaker 2: love it, love it?

568
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 3: Why explain love so on the team that just had

569
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 3: the dramatic win in prime time by the team that

570
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 3: just had the devastating loss. Mike Vrabel as an underdog.

571
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 3: He's twenty six and twenty eight straight up as an underdog,

572
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 3: right like, this is a guy who just wins when

573
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 3: he is counted out and his team is not supposed

574
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 3: to win, let alone in the amount of time that

575
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 3: he covers as an underdog. Him and Tomlin are the

576
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 3: two guys that wise guys love to cover. They love

577
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 3: to cover in these exact spots, like to bet on

578
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 3: in these exact spots. So yeah, the wise guys are

579
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 3: digging themselves. Some Tennessee Titans.

580
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 2: Chad Millman, Happy Holiday, CCO Action Network All lads provided

581
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 2: by Draft King. Great talking to you, buddy.

582
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 3: Great seeing you too, brother. Happy Holidays to you and

583
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 3: the entire crew.

584
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 1: The volume