1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 2: As we watch the aftermath of the hearings, in the 7 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 2: headline on the terminal says it all. Trump's fedpick draws 8 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 2: Democratic fire at confirmation hearing. Of course, we're talking about 9 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:38,599 Speaker 2: Steven Myron, someone we've spoken with more than once on 10 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 2: this program, as chair of the Council of Economic Advisors 11 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 2: in the White House. A lot of questions about FED 12 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 2: independence and the idea that this revolving door would keep 13 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 2: swinging one by the way that Meron himself criticized before 14 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 2: the revolving door between the Federal Reserve and the Executive Branch, 15 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 2: knowing this is just a four and a half month 16 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 2: term that he's up for here and he's not resigning 17 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 2: his chairmanship. He'll be returning to the political position at 18 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 2: the White House. 19 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 3: After this is done. 20 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 2: So there are a lot of questions by Democrats, namely 21 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,639 Speaker 2: about FED independence and Senator Elizabeth Warren, who we just mentioned. 22 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 2: She joined us last evening to give us a sense 23 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 2: of where she was going in this conversation went straight 24 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 2: for Myron and his relationship with Donald Trump. 25 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 4: Let's listen, so let me ask you the question for 26 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 4: the third time. We want to understand your independence. Donald 27 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 4: Trump stated that the BLS faked the job numbers before 28 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 4: the election to try and boost Kamala's chances of victory. 29 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 3: Do you agree with that? 30 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 4: Yes or no? 31 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,559 Speaker 5: The beer of Labor Statistics did not take corrective action 32 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 5: to improve the quality of steadily. 33 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 4: Agree with the statement that they faked numbers. 34 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 5: I believe that they were complacently allowing the data stage. 35 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 4: You do have any evidence that they faked numbers? 36 00:01:57,560 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 5: Well, as I said moments ago, the data have steadily 37 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 5: to twaruality and I'm healthy. 38 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 6: This. 39 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 2: By the way, this approach was tried by several senators, 40 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 2: several Democratic senators, including Chris van Holland I'm pretty sure 41 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 2: they never got an answer. Bloomberg's Michael McKee is in 42 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 2: Washington to cover this hearing for US our International policy 43 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 2: and economics correspondent, and joins US Live Now from Capitol Hill. 44 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 3: Did we ever get an answer to that question. 45 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 7: Michael, We never got an answer to that question, nor 46 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 7: did we get an answer to the question of who 47 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 7: won the twenty twenty presidential race, because Myron dodged that 48 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 7: question as well from Elizabeth Warren. But basically, the Democrats 49 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:38,959 Speaker 7: pointed out the inconsistencies in his testimony and the inconsistencies 50 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 7: with the paper he wrote last year that suggested major 51 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 7: reforms at the FED, including a four year prohibition on 52 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:50,119 Speaker 7: anyone going from the FED back to a presidential administration. 53 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 7: And obviously he wants to go back after a four 54 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 7: month hiatus at the FED. He had no explanation other 55 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 7: than it's a short term, so I would go back. 56 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 7: But it was an effort by the Democrats to hold 57 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:08,920 Speaker 7: him accountable, and they probably did if the court of 58 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 7: a public opinion mattered. But in this case, it's the 59 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 7: Republican senators on the committee who matter, and they basically 60 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 7: gave Myron a pass on everything, and it looks like 61 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 7: he will be reported out a committee to the Senate floor. 62 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 8: Mike, when it comes to that question of FED independence 63 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 8: is kind of drum that Myron has been banging for. 64 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 9: Quite some time. How does he suggest he can ensure independence. 65 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:33,359 Speaker 5: Well, he sort of. 66 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 7: He made the case that he would use his own 67 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 7: economic training and his own beliefs to come to the 68 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 7: conclusions he needed to about what monetary policy should be. 69 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 7: He didn't separate what his own beliefs were from what 70 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 7: the presidents were. He was asked specifically if he believed 71 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 7: in the president's views that he articulates so often on 72 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 7: truth Social about cutting interest rates, and he also danced 73 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 7: around that quote. So it's pretty obvious that Myron would 74 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 7: go to the Fed as a reliable vote for the president. 75 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 7: But one could make the case that there are reasons 76 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 7: to vote for a rate cut, as Chris Waller and 77 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 7: Mickey Bowman have said, and so it's kind of hard 78 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 7: for Democrats to score too many points in that regard. 79 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,480 Speaker 2: Well, so give us the real take, Michael mckeed, the 80 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:26,600 Speaker 2: purpose of this exercise, knowing that we have a Republican majority, 81 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 2: was this just about getting the poison out? Or will 82 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:32,160 Speaker 2: anything come from these clashes with Democrats? As he as 83 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 2: good as confirmed. 84 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 7: He's probably as good as confirmed. It's hard to believe 85 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 7: that the Senate wouldn't vote for him, given that most 86 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 7: of the members of the committee expressed their support, gave 87 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 7: him softball questions, didn't seem to really care about anything 88 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 7: that the Democrats raised. There were no follow up questions 89 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 7: from the Republican side, and the President has basically ordered 90 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:56,559 Speaker 7: the Senate to get him on the Federal Reserve Board 91 00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 7: by the time they meet September seventeenth. There are going 92 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 7: to be calendar issues for the Senate floor action because 93 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 7: they have a lot of nominations backed up. But if 94 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 7: the President wants at the Senate has shown they will 95 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 7: give him what he wants. 96 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:12,159 Speaker 3: Mike, you know me. 97 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 9: You know me for a while. 98 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:15,679 Speaker 8: You know I'm a market's girl at heart, so naturally, 99 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,800 Speaker 8: my favorite part of the testimony was when he was 100 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 8: asked whether the bond market is pricing in, or reacting to, 101 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 8: or considering the FED independence is really at risk, Myron 102 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 8: saying it's not, and that's not a real kind of 103 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 8: scenario that would even show up. 104 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 9: The natural follow would be, isn't that a done deal? 105 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 8: Isn't Wall Street already saying FED independence is not a 106 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 8: thing anymore? 107 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 7: Well, it depends on whether you're in the administration or not. 108 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 7: For Myron, he can say it's a theoretical question, and 109 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:51,039 Speaker 7: I can't answer these hypotheticals because that hasn't happened. There 110 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 7: are people on Wall Street who think FED independence has 111 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 7: been compromised, but we haven't seen a huge reaction in 112 00:05:56,920 --> 00:06:00,280 Speaker 7: the markets. We've seen what maybe the beginning of that, 113 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 7: but right now it seems that the markets have made 114 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,159 Speaker 7: their peace with the idea of a twenty five basis 115 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,279 Speaker 7: point cut, and that's keeping the long end pinned the 116 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 7: short end pinned down. Rather, the long end is exhibiting 117 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 7: some concern, but not what you'd expect if they thought 118 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 7: that the FED had gone completely off the rails. That 119 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 7: may still be out there. 120 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 3: Michael, it's great to have you in Washington. 121 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 2: As always, Michael McKee live from Capitol Hill, as we 122 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 2: had the voice now of Claudia Som We've been looking 123 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 2: forward to this conversation on the wake of the hearing 124 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 2: Chief Economists, News, Century Advisors. Claudia, it's great to have 125 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 2: you back with us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 126 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 3: What were your. 127 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 2: Thoughts listening to this back and forth over FED independence? 128 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 2: Would confirming Stephen Myron for the board actually change the 129 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:45,599 Speaker 2: story here? Knowing that he plans to go back to 130 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 2: the White House. 131 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:50,280 Speaker 10: So it was a pretty wild hearing. It lived up 132 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:53,800 Speaker 10: to expectations. This really wasn't about Stephen Myron and his 133 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 10: ability to serve as a FED governor. It was about 134 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 10: Federal Reserve independence, and very specifically, what that means is 135 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 10: who is in control of the interest rate decisions? Is 136 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 10: it the President or is it the Federal Open Market Committee? 137 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 10: Right we're at, you know, and that's this big question mark. 138 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 10: And we've seen a whole series of events that have 139 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 10: kind of pushed us in the direction of this White 140 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 10: House really trying to exert a lot of control over 141 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 10: interest rates. And to me, you know, in En Myron's 142 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 10: hearing today, it is absolutely the case. And he said 143 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 10: this as well. Presidents when they nominate someone to the 144 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 10: FED Board, it's someone whose views they agree with, right 145 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 10: like that the president does have an influence on the FED. 146 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 10: This is not some pure like totally devoid of any 147 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 10: political contact. But there was more to this confirmation, and 148 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 10: what to me was the real shocker was the idea 149 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 10: that the White House is going to send him to 150 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 10: the FED and keep him on staff at the White House, 151 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 10: which I mean, a pretty clear reading of the Federal 152 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 10: Reserve Act says that it's not okay, but it just 153 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 10: fits within a proof a series of actions that really 154 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 10: are put pushing us towards a FED that's under the 155 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 10: control of the president. And that, to me, that action 156 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 10: was one that really caused concern, not the back and 157 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 10: forth about you know, he's been in politics and he'll 158 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 10: be independent. I mean, those are words. That's it. 159 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 8: Well, Claudia, if we can dive into perhaps some of 160 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 8: the policy and some of the kind of proposals that 161 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 8: he was suggesting that very much have aligned with what 162 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 8: have you heard from the White House broadly, The one 163 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 8: that stuck out to me is the fact that he 164 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 8: said there's no inflationary effect when it comes to tariffs. 165 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 9: He was pushed about whether tariffs are taxes. 166 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 8: His response was, any policy can be modeled as a 167 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 8: tax on Americans. 168 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 9: As an economist, is that true? Yeah, See, this was. 169 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 10: Part of the hearing that was really complicated in the 170 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 10: you know, he right now is the chairman of the 171 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 10: Council of Economic Advice, He's part of the White House. 172 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 10: Part of his job is to defend those tariffs, right. 173 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 10: That is not when he would be at the FED 174 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 10: board like that is not his deal. It's how do 175 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 10: you react to these tariffs? It's not selling them. He 176 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:05,559 Speaker 10: got questioning time and again about these tariffs, and he 177 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 10: got really very few questions of any about his views 178 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 10: on monetary policy. What do you think the neutral interest 179 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 10: rate is? What do you think? 180 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 11: Like? 181 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 10: So, I you know, he you're not going to have 182 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 10: a political official stand before Congress and undermine throw under 183 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 10: the bus the president's key proposals, right, I mean those 184 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:27,599 Speaker 10: you know Democrats were asking. He's asked no questions to 185 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 10: get him to like, He's not going to do it. 186 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 10: He's in the administration, and he's also a presidential appointee, right, 187 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:36,200 Speaker 10: So I think, you know, find whatever he did a 188 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:39,440 Speaker 10: lot of hedging. He you know, tiptoed around issues. I 189 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,439 Speaker 10: didn't appreciate when he tiptoed around something that I thought 190 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 10: were very directly about the Federal Reserve. But you know 191 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 10: it was it was a strange hearing. 192 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 8: Well, Claudia, we are less than twenty four hours away 193 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 8: from a job support tomorrow, and I feel like the 194 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:55,719 Speaker 8: closest he got to discussing the labor marketing and even 195 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 8: discussing those dynamics was talking about immigration, and he connected 196 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 8: the dots between the immigration policy, the White House's border policy, 197 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 8: and inflation when it comes to housing. Can you just 198 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 8: connect those dots for our global and our political audience 199 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 8: frankly about how that relationship should work in theory? 200 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 10: Right, So I think absolutely going into tomorrow's employment report, 201 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,560 Speaker 10: we should be thinking a lot about how much immigration 202 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:21,960 Speaker 10: policy has changed in the United States in just the 203 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 10: last few years. Is that it will these big declines 204 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 10: in immigration in the country arise in deportations that should 205 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 10: be showing up in terms of slower job growth because 206 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 10: we have less labor supply. There can be other things 207 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 10: going on, but that will almost certainly be present in 208 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 10: tomorrow's numbers that we can't read it out easily. Myron 209 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 10: was talking about the inflation effects, and here, you know, 210 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:47,679 Speaker 10: he was highlighting the how fewer people coming into the country, 211 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 10: there's less household formation, there's less demand for housing. So 212 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 10: that's not gonna that'll help push down house price inflation, 213 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 10: totally fine. What he didn't mention is it's also the 214 00:10:57,200 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 10: case that immigrants come, they work, they help deal with 215 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:04,440 Speaker 10: labor shortages and keep you know, wages from really exploding, 216 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 10: and then potentially have that passed on to consumers. So 217 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 10: my read and what I think the you know, different 218 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,199 Speaker 10: FED officials have talked about is on inflation. It's kind 219 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:15,079 Speaker 10: of a mixed bag in terms of exactly how immigration 220 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:19,079 Speaker 10: sorts itself out. In the labor market, it's a pretty 221 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 10: clear it's going to slow things down in terms of 222 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:23,720 Speaker 10: our workforce, which means it's pretty clear it's going to 223 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 10: slow things down in terms of our growth as a country. 224 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 8: So, Claudia, in your from your perspective, We've heard from 225 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 8: folks on both sides of the aisle. We heard from 226 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 8: Elisabe Bourne on the show last night. We've heard from 227 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 8: plenty of Republicans in the White House as well. Everyone's 228 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 8: saying the economy is receiving, things are slowing down. Recession 229 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 8: is right around the corner. From your perspective, where are we. 230 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 10: So I would agree that things are slowing down. I 231 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:51,320 Speaker 10: do not see a recession right around the corner. I 232 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 10: am watching very carefully what's happening in the labor market. 233 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 10: That will be decisive and you know, whether things really 234 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 10: start to go south quickly. Several policies that as we 235 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:05,360 Speaker 10: could expect to have slower growth from those terres, they 236 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:08,679 Speaker 10: are attacks and that slows things down. At least in 237 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 10: the near term, maybe far in the future. They create production, 238 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,320 Speaker 10: but they're going to slow things down. It's attacks we've 239 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 10: had less immigration that slows things down. We've had a 240 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 10: lot of uncertainty that slows things down. So is in 241 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:21,560 Speaker 10: a question of like where do we go from here? 242 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 10: Are these very temporary effects? Are they ones that deepen 243 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 10: and that? So I think that's the question we're in 244 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 10: right now. I see much lower growth that we've had 245 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 10: in recent years, but I don't see the falling off 246 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 10: the cliff. But I think it is appropriate for the 247 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,719 Speaker 10: Fed and it went else to be watching that risk carefully. 248 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 2: Tomorrow's the first jobs report since President Trump fired the 249 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 2: head of BLS. There was a lot of talk about 250 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 2: the quality of data in this hearing. Today, Steven Myron 251 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 2: would not acknowledge questions refuse to answer questions about the 252 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 2: political motivations that President Trump had ascribed to the head 253 00:12:57,360 --> 00:12:59,560 Speaker 2: of the BLS. How are you going to look at 254 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 2: the data tomorrow now that this has taken place, and 255 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 2: will the market's second guess the number they see. 256 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 10: I'm going to look at the data like I always 257 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,200 Speaker 10: look at the data. This is the absolute best read 258 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 10: that we have on the US labor market. We have 259 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 10: world class statistics. Yes they can be better, anything can 260 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 10: be better, but they will give us a good read. 261 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 10: It's going to be complicated, but it is not complicated 262 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 10: because our data are falling apart. It's complicated because the 263 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:27,920 Speaker 10: economy is complicated when we have these moments where labor 264 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 10: supply is moving one direction, labor demands moving and it's 265 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 10: really hard to read the data. And so I think 266 00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 10: tomorrow I'm just going to be looking at lots of pieces, 267 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 10: keeping an eye on the jobs numbers, keeping an eye 268 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 10: on the unemployment rate, looking at wage growth, Like you 269 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 10: really have to look at all these pieces. And you know, 270 00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:47,080 Speaker 10: we never take one number and run with it. That's 271 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 10: just how it works in terms of measurement. But I 272 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 10: have no qualms about spending a lot of time sifting 273 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:56,160 Speaker 10: through the data and trying to answer the question of 274 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 10: like where are we headed? What's going on? 275 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,600 Speaker 2: Well, you wonder you know, in the coming months, we'll 276 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:05,200 Speaker 2: see how the Trump administration handles the data. If this 277 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:09,679 Speaker 2: sends more people to private research, if ADP starts to 278 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 2: rise on your list of credibility here versus government data, 279 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 2: I know it's already a cottage industry, But are more 280 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 2: economists going to be looking at private research because of this? 281 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 10: We you know, the using other data sources has been 282 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 10: a growing trend for a very long time. And that's 283 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 10: not just that's not necessarily about data quality coming out 284 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 10: of the federal statistics. It's also sometimes you want a 285 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 10: more granular approach, you want more timely approaches. So they 286 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 10: are just not things the government statistics have been able 287 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 10: to offer because they're cost prohibitive the way that they 288 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 10: do their work. And so so I don't I have 289 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 10: no problem with the going out, but the idea that 290 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 10: we're going to be I don't think we're not there yet, 291 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 10: But any time that is spent trying to figure out 292 00:14:56,880 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 10: our the government data fabricated or somehow like, that's just 293 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 10: going to be such a waste of time. And I don't, 294 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 10: like I said, we're not there yet, there's no reason 295 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 10: to do that, but I mean we really should recognize 296 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:10,360 Speaker 10: for it. This is this is this is going to 297 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 10: undermine the federal statistics that we have that well could 298 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 10: be improved, are really very valuable. So we're not in 299 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 10: a we're not in a good place. This is this 300 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 10: is pretty risky. 301 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, keep this in mind. 302 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 2: At eight thirty tomorrow morning, Claudia Som What a pleasure 303 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 2: to have you always on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thanks 304 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 2: for the insights today following the Stephen Meyern hearing, Chief Economists, 305 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 2: New Century Advisors, and some food for thought ahead of 306 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 2: tomorrow's jobs data. Of course, we'll have that life for 307 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 2: you when it breaks at eight thirty am. 308 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 309 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 3: more coming up after this. 310 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 311 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm E's durn 312 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 1: on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 313 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 314 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 315 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Thursday edition of Balance of Power. 316 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Credi Gupta in Washington dueling hearings. 317 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:14,160 Speaker 2: We've been dealing so far with the hearing for FED 318 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 2: nominee Steven Myron, but in a separate hearing room in 319 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 2: the United States Senate today, the Senate Finance Committee, we 320 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 2: found R. 321 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 6: FK. 322 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 2: Junior, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, in what 323 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 2: was a very chippy conversation, in fact, downright confrontational, with 324 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 2: yelling by some Democratic members and the Secretary himself. If 325 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 2: you look at some of the back and forth with 326 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 2: the likes of Senator Elizabeth Warren Mark Warner, who incidentally 327 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 2: is going to join us in the late edition of 328 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 2: Balance of Power, you'll know what I mean. But even 329 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 2: some Republicans had words with Secretary Kennedy, including Bill Cassidy, 330 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 2: a doctor, of course from Louisiana. Shouldn't be a big surprise, 331 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 2: but even John Barrosso, Wyoming senator, part of the leadership, 332 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 2: got into this idea of vaccine policy and keeping promises 333 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,000 Speaker 2: that were made during his confirmation hearings. 334 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 11: Let's listen, Secretary Kennedy and your confirmation hearings. You promised 335 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 11: to uphold the highest standards for vaccines. Since then, I've 336 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:18,920 Speaker 11: grown deeply concerned. The public has seen measles outbreaks, leadership 337 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 11: in the National Institute of Health questioning the use of 338 00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:25,639 Speaker 11: mRNA vaccines. The recently confirmed Director of Centers for Disease 339 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:30,120 Speaker 11: Control and Prevention fired Americans don't know who to rely on. 340 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:35,639 Speaker 2: Pretty important to be coming from that Republican in particular, 341 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:39,159 Speaker 2: We're going to be getting some insights from doctor Leslie 342 00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:42,640 Speaker 2: Canter from Rutgers School of Public Health in just a moment, 343 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 2: but we want to set the baseline and stay on 344 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 2: Capitol Hill. In a quick conversation with Bloomberg's health reporter 345 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,440 Speaker 2: Jessica Nix, who's in the Capital for this hearing, which, 346 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 2: by the way, just concluded about a half an hour ago. Jessica, 347 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:56,639 Speaker 2: it's great to have you on the beat for us 348 00:17:56,640 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 2: here today. This was a bypartisan affair. Rfk Jr. Did 349 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 2: he dispel any concerns about his approach to health? 350 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:10,399 Speaker 12: That's a really great question. It didn't really seem like 351 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 12: he did dispel any of those concerns from the Democratic 352 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 12: side or even on the Republican side. One of the 353 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,880 Speaker 12: most interesting points of the entire almost three hour long 354 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:23,400 Speaker 12: hearing was different Republicans who brought up Operation Warp Speed. 355 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:28,320 Speaker 12: Kennedy obviously has cut different contracts for mRNA vaccines, has 356 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 12: said that he doesn't really trust mRNA vaccines in the past. 357 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,640 Speaker 12: Even Cassidy brought up, how would you even consider Operation 358 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 12: Warp Speed a success for Donald Trump if you're saying 359 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:42,400 Speaker 12: this about mRNA vaccines. So we saw that rift within 360 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 12: Republicans and Kennedy for one of the first times since 361 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 12: Kennedy has taken on HHS secretary. 362 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 9: Well, just good. 363 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 8: Just to clarify for our audience at the end of 364 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:57,119 Speaker 8: the day, does this policy or do these recommendations or 365 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,719 Speaker 8: views that he's making clear in Washington actually show up 366 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 8: when it comes to when someone goes to a pharmacy 367 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 8: and ultimately asks for a vaccine. 368 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 9: Have we seen that trickle through just yet? 369 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:12,000 Speaker 12: Yes, we have, specifically with COVID vaccines. If you remember 370 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 12: a few weeks ago, the Food and Drug Administration changed 371 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 12: COVID recommendations to just people who are sixty five and 372 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,919 Speaker 12: older or if you have an underlying condition, unless you 373 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 12: have a prescription from a doctor, then you're able to 374 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,159 Speaker 12: go to a pharmacy and possibly get that vaccine. But 375 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:29,320 Speaker 12: it's created a ton of confusion about where you can 376 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:31,479 Speaker 12: get the vaccine, if you can get the vaccine, if 377 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,119 Speaker 12: you can just go to your pharmacy like normal, And 378 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 12: a lot of his decisions have also trickled down to 379 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 12: important vaccine panels, specifically the one with CDC called the 380 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 12: Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices or ASIP. They kind of 381 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 12: set the tone for what insurance companies cover vaccines, and 382 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 12: also whether vaccines would be offered for free under different 383 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:56,879 Speaker 12: federally mandated vaccine programs. They're changing vaccinations as well, and 384 00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 12: policy with vaccines too. They've got a meeting, very high 385 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 12: anticipated meeting coming up in literally two weeks, also to 386 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:09,399 Speaker 12: discuss the COVID vaccine RSV vaccines MMRV is also on 387 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 12: the schedule. And then of course COVID, which is the 388 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:13,440 Speaker 12: one that everyone's very confused about right now. 389 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I know Senator Bulcassidy was urging them to postpone 390 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:18,640 Speaker 2: that meeting. 391 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 3: Jessica, it's great to have you. Many thanks. 392 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 2: Jessica Nix, Bloomberg Health Reporter, live on Capitol Hill. As 393 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 2: we add the voice of doctor Leslie Canzer, Chair and 394 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 2: Professor at the Department of Urban Global Public Health at 395 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,960 Speaker 2: Rutgers University School of Public Health. Doctor, welcome back to 396 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:35,120 Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's been some time, and it's 397 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,719 Speaker 2: good to have you back. As part of our conversation. 398 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 2: It feels to me like more questions were raised than 399 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:43,440 Speaker 2: answered in this hearing today. 400 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 3: Do you agree. 401 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,480 Speaker 13: I agree that it was a very contentious hearing. I 402 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:51,960 Speaker 13: think the thing that is very clear and very concerning 403 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 13: for those of us who care about public health and 404 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:58,480 Speaker 13: the health of the American public is that we have 405 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 13: essentially an aj A secretary who is decimating their own agency. 406 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:08,160 Speaker 13: What we know, beyond the confusion that is being sewn 407 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:13,920 Speaker 13: about vaccines, is that thousands, thousands of CDC employees, even 408 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 13: if we just stick with the Centers for Disease Control 409 00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:20,359 Speaker 13: for a moment, thousands of people have been fired. We 410 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 13: now do not have a director who is qualified at 411 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 13: the head of the CDC, and we've had several high 412 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 13: level resignations of key scientists and leaders. So that is 413 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:37,440 Speaker 13: something that has certainly happened and was not resolved by 414 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:38,160 Speaker 13: today's hearing. 415 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 8: Doctor, can you just explore the hypothetical for me here 416 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 8: in the case of another pandemic or another wave or 417 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:53,399 Speaker 8: another variation of the COVID kind of infection, what is 418 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,399 Speaker 8: the actual policy here, as you suggest, with the scientists, 419 00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 8: with the heads of these departments gone, what actually happens 420 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 8: operationally to deal with the situation like that. 421 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:06,159 Speaker 13: Yeah, well, you didn't have me here to terrify people, 422 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 13: and I don't want to speculate too much on what 423 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 13: another pandemic could look like. Obviously that would be an 424 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 13: extreme situation, and frankly, in terms of COVID, we got 425 00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 13: lucky because in fact, the mortality rate was relatively low. 426 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 13: If we did get hit with a disease that had 427 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,959 Speaker 13: a higher mortality rate, we know we lost millions of 428 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:32,479 Speaker 13: lives in the United States. 429 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:33,359 Speaker 3: It could be worse. 430 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,399 Speaker 13: But let's stick with what's happening right now, which is 431 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:40,439 Speaker 13: frankly bad enough, which is that we are losing in 432 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,359 Speaker 13: many communities what we used to call herd immunity, but 433 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 13: we try to call community immunity. 434 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:47,679 Speaker 9: For things like the measles. 435 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 13: So we've had more than two times the number of 436 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:55,000 Speaker 13: measles outbreaks this year as we had even just a 437 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 13: year ago, and one in five kids under the age 438 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 13: of five who got the measles ended up in the hospital. 439 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:06,919 Speaker 13: So that is something that's happening right now without any 440 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:10,359 Speaker 13: further changes in policy. So I think we have to 441 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 13: be very worried about a committee of now wildly unqualified 442 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 13: people changing the vaccination schedule. 443 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 9: Even more, I. 444 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:24,040 Speaker 2: Want to ask you about Susan Monarez, who of course 445 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 2: was at the head of the CDC and was fired 446 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:31,200 Speaker 2: by RFK Junior. There was a conversation in this hearing 447 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,240 Speaker 2: today about why, and I first want to mention the 448 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 2: fact that ahead of this hearing, Manarez wrote an op 449 00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 2: ed in the Wall Street Journal. Those seeking to undermine vaccines, 450 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 2: she writes, use a familiar playbook, discredit research. We can 451 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 2: advisory committees and use manipulated outcomes to unravel protections that 452 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 2: generations of families have relied on to keep deadly diseases 453 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:57,439 Speaker 2: at bay. Once trusted experts are removed and advisory bodies 454 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 2: are stacked, she writes, the results are predetermined, and that 455 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:05,280 Speaker 2: is not reform, it is sabotage. RFK Junior today talked 456 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:09,160 Speaker 2: about the need to fire Susan Monarez because she lied 457 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:13,000 Speaker 2: to Americans when she said she was fired for refusing 458 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:16,640 Speaker 2: to adopt or endorse vaccine recommendations that were not supported 459 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 2: by science. 460 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,159 Speaker 3: Did she deserve to be fired, of course not. 461 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 13: And what's cyronic here is that, for the first time 462 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 13: in our history, the director of the CDC actually went 463 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:34,879 Speaker 13: through a Senate confirmation, and many people were skeptical about 464 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:39,159 Speaker 13: doctor Manares and whether she would just rubber stamp some 465 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 13: of these unscientific changes to particularly vaccination policy, when she 466 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:50,640 Speaker 13: would not would not do that. RFK tried to fire her, 467 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,280 Speaker 13: he's not actually authorized to do that, and the White 468 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:58,640 Speaker 13: House followed up. You have multiple high level career scientists 469 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,199 Speaker 13: who are saying the exact same thing. There's absolutely no 470 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:07,360 Speaker 13: reason to doubt doctor Manaz's explanation, and I think that 471 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 13: she is pointing toward exactly what has happened here. Secretary 472 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:18,360 Speaker 13: Kennedy has started an organization and has been a vaccine 473 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:22,880 Speaker 13: skeptic and underminer for a long time now, and he 474 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:26,280 Speaker 13: now has a much larger bully pulpit and in fact 475 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:31,479 Speaker 13: is overseeing, ironically, the organizations that make vaccine policy for 476 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 13: this country. I think, like most of my public health 477 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:40,360 Speaker 13: and healthcare colleagues, twenty leading organizations today asked for him 478 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 13: to step down, including the American Public Health Association, and 479 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,520 Speaker 13: I am certainly in agreement with that being what would 480 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 13: be most appropriate given the actions of the last couple 481 00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:52,360 Speaker 13: of weeks. 482 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:57,440 Speaker 8: Doctor Cantorer, we've seen that skepticism manifest most realistically and 483 00:25:57,600 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 8: in real time when it comes to the COVID vaccines. 484 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,159 Speaker 8: But can you just walk us through the other places 485 00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,160 Speaker 8: of the healthcare policy that is in the United States 486 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:07,320 Speaker 8: right now where you are starting to see that show 487 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:09,120 Speaker 8: up sure. 488 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,560 Speaker 13: I mean I mentioned one already, which is in the 489 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,920 Speaker 13: measles outbreaks and the worries that people have about the measles, mumps, 490 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 13: and rubella vaccine. I think COVID is a very important 491 00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:27,439 Speaker 13: place that we know that many people do remain vulnerable, 492 00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 13: including people like healthy pregnant women. And the American Academy 493 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:38,520 Speaker 13: of Pediatrics actually has now broken with the new guidelines 494 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:42,240 Speaker 13: from the federal government and said that children up to 495 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,959 Speaker 13: age two absolutely need to be vaccinated. So that is 496 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,920 Speaker 13: another place, and I think more and more we are 497 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:54,040 Speaker 13: hearing about parents who've heard a lot of this rhetoric 498 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,719 Speaker 13: opting their children out of certain vaccines. I think the 499 00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:02,280 Speaker 13: most concerning public policy development was out of Florida yesterday 500 00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:07,760 Speaker 13: when they announced that for any vaccines over which the 501 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:11,600 Speaker 13: Florida Health Commissioner has jurisdiction, which is not all of them, 502 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:13,320 Speaker 13: they will no longer be. 503 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:14,720 Speaker 9: Required for schools. 504 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:18,520 Speaker 13: So I just want to remind people that vaccines are 505 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 13: not just about individual immunity. We need a large proportion 506 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,720 Speaker 13: of people to get them or else a disease can 507 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:28,879 Speaker 13: take hold in a community. 508 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,760 Speaker 8: But doctor Cantor, if I went to a CVS or 509 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:35,520 Speaker 8: a Walgreens across the street. 510 00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 9: Would I be able to get a vaccine if I 511 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:38,640 Speaker 9: asked for. 512 00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:42,920 Speaker 13: It depends what state you're in. So, for example, I'm 513 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,719 Speaker 13: coming to you from New Jersey, where I'm very proud 514 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 13: to say that many pharmacies are continuing to make COVID 515 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 13: vaccines available to anybody who is eligible and without a prescription. 516 00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 13: In some states, they are requiring people to have a 517 00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:03,679 Speaker 13: doctor prescription, and some states are working to make sure 518 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,960 Speaker 13: that their head of the state Department of Health can 519 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 13: act as that sign off doctor. But then there are 520 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:15,199 Speaker 13: sets of states where pharmacies believe that they're going to 521 00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:19,360 Speaker 13: have trouble getting reimbursements and they've announced that they are 522 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:23,160 Speaker 13: not going to make COVID vaccines as available. So this 523 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:28,400 Speaker 13: is becoming not just two Americas, but potentially fifty Americas, 524 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:32,680 Speaker 13: where your access to the vaccine may depend on your 525 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,080 Speaker 13: own state and their ability to develop workarounds. 526 00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:41,680 Speaker 2: Fifty Americas. We could invoke that vision on so many 527 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:43,880 Speaker 2: days here on this program. Doctor, thank you for being 528 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,880 Speaker 2: with us. Doctor Leslie Cantrid, Chair Professor, Department of Urban 529 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,880 Speaker 2: Global Public Health at Rutgers University's School of Public Health. 530 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,680 Speaker 2: Really interesting conversation We're going to continue to unpack this 531 00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,800 Speaker 2: hearing with Rfka Junior on the late edition of Balance 532 00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:58,640 Speaker 2: of Power in a conversation you will not want to 533 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,959 Speaker 2: miss with Senator Mark Warner, Democrat from Virginia. Loomed large 534 00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:06,239 Speaker 2: in that conversation as voices were raised, specifically over the 535 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:09,760 Speaker 2: COVID nineteen vaccine warp, speed and the number of people 536 00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 2: who died in this country. The Secretary refused to give 537 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:17,880 Speaker 2: the Senator a number. Stay with us on Balance of Power. 538 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 2: We'll have much more coming up after this. 539 00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 540 00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 541 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,920 Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 542 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,000 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 543 00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 544 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:44,840 Speaker 2: Well, happy kick off the football season. I should say 545 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,440 Speaker 2: that as well to my good friend Kaylie Lyons. 546 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 3: She must be so excited at home with the family. 547 00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:53,080 Speaker 2: And I mentioned that because this is the pre eminent 548 00:29:53,600 --> 00:30:00,080 Speaker 2: season for sports gambling, right, football brings the dollars and 549 00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,200 Speaker 2: there's a tie in here. Don't worry to what's happening 550 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 2: in Washington, because now the lawmakers are back in town, 551 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:07,760 Speaker 2: they're going to be attempting to do a little bit 552 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 2: of a fix on the President's big, beautiful bill. Don't worry, 553 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,200 Speaker 2: I'm going to connect the dots here for you because, 554 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 2: as you might have heard, and we've talked about this 555 00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:20,040 Speaker 2: a bit, the bill changes the way tax deductions work 556 00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 2: for gambling losses. You're only allowed to deduct ninety percent 557 00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,200 Speaker 2: of your losses. It used to be one hundred and 558 00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:30,760 Speaker 2: so there are big concerns about what this means for 559 00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:35,200 Speaker 2: the business. Whether you're on the Las Vegas Strip, Fremont, 560 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 2: whether you're gaming on your phone. This is a massive 561 00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,800 Speaker 2: growth industry. You hear us talk about draft kings and 562 00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:47,160 Speaker 2: all the rest on here. You can't hide from sports gambling. 563 00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:51,480 Speaker 2: And so there is an attempted fix here. The representative 564 00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:55,280 Speaker 2: from Nevada introducing the Fair Bet Act, which would return 565 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,520 Speaker 2: the deduction back to one hundred percent of losses. So 566 00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:00,880 Speaker 2: we'll see where this goes in the days and weeks ahead, 567 00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:02,920 Speaker 2: but it's something we wanted to talk about with a 568 00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:10,880 Speaker 2: true stakeholder. Derek Stevens is the mayor essentially of Fremont Street, 569 00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:15,800 Speaker 2: He's the CEO of Circa Resort and Circa Sports and 570 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,240 Speaker 2: is known for having one of the coolest sports books 571 00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:21,480 Speaker 2: in the world. You've seen pictures of the pool out there. 572 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:24,080 Speaker 2: This is where producer James goes when he's in Las Vegas. 573 00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,080 Speaker 2: They actually get in the pool and the sports book is 574 00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:28,800 Speaker 2: outdoors with this massive Derek. 575 00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:29,480 Speaker 3: It's great to see. 576 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 2: Am I am I describing this pretty well so far 577 00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:33,560 Speaker 2: because I've been looking forward to talking with you and 578 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,280 Speaker 2: I want to know if this legislative. 579 00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:37,960 Speaker 3: Fix is going to help save your business. 580 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:40,800 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it's gonna help. 581 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:41,040 Speaker 10: Uh. 582 00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 6: It's gonna help save uh, save a lot of the industry. Uh. 583 00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:47,640 Speaker 6: You know, our business is one of them. But I 584 00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,080 Speaker 6: think I think simply when you look at what happened 585 00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:53,400 Speaker 6: in the Big Blue, Beautiful Bill, there was an element 586 00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,960 Speaker 6: that occurred in the middle of the night that was unintended. 587 00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:59,880 Speaker 6: It's simply an unintended consequence. Uh. It doesn't matter what 588 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:04,480 Speaker 6: side of the aisle you're on. Neither Republicans nor Democrats 589 00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:07,640 Speaker 6: want this to occur because effectively, what it's going to do, 590 00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,040 Speaker 6: it's going to take people that bet frequently, some of 591 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,920 Speaker 6: the large better some of the professional betters and even 592 00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,680 Speaker 6: just some of the larger recreational betters, and you're basically 593 00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:22,000 Speaker 6: forcing them to no longer bet legally. You're forcing US 594 00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 6: citizens to go offshore and bet illegally. Under the current situation, 595 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,640 Speaker 6: the ability to duct one hundred percent of your losses 596 00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:33,360 Speaker 6: is very very important. Under what got passed to the 597 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,640 Speaker 6: big beautiful bill, you'll end up getting taxed on a 598 00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:40,520 Speaker 6: substantial amount of phantom income and people that want to 599 00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:44,000 Speaker 6: want to make sure that they file an appropriate tax 600 00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 6: return are being forced to bet outside the country. And 601 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,240 Speaker 6: that's very unfortunate because it's going to impact It will 602 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,880 Speaker 6: impact all states that have regulated gaming, and it will 603 00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:56,240 Speaker 6: impact a lot of Americans that just don't want to 604 00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:56,560 Speaker 6: do that. 605 00:32:58,080 --> 00:32:59,560 Speaker 3: How much time do you have to fix it? 606 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 2: And by the way, way I should mention that Derek 607 00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,920 Speaker 2: Stevens also owns the d in the Golden Gate. He's 608 00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:08,440 Speaker 2: got a couple of major businesses here. How much time 609 00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,240 Speaker 2: do you have to fix that before it actually potentially 610 00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:14,080 Speaker 2: impacts business or is that happening already. 611 00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:17,320 Speaker 6: Well, I think everyone's working at it behind the scenes. 612 00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:19,400 Speaker 6: But I think there's going to be a reconciliation bill 613 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 6: that's going to have to come in December. The Big 614 00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:27,000 Speaker 6: Beautiful Bill does not go into effect until January first, 615 00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:32,880 Speaker 6: and I think the elimination of this ninety percent deductibility 616 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:34,360 Speaker 6: and going back to where we were with one hundred 617 00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:37,960 Speaker 6: percent deductibility, that's going to be one of many things 618 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:41,200 Speaker 6: that comes comes into this reconciliation bill that will have 619 00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:45,400 Speaker 6: to take place at some point in December. US House 620 00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:51,680 Speaker 6: Representative Titus, as you had mentioned, is implemented misproposal for 621 00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:57,000 Speaker 6: the Fair Bed Act. It's gotten bipartisan support also in 622 00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:01,760 Speaker 6: the Senate. We've got bipartisan support from Senate as well. 623 00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:04,440 Speaker 6: This is just something that needs to be put into 624 00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:06,400 Speaker 6: a bill so that we can go back to where 625 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:10,360 Speaker 6: we were. The impact, I think is a bit misunderstood 626 00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:14,160 Speaker 6: from a political perspective because it would have a big 627 00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:18,360 Speaker 6: impact on the handle within every state that has legalized 628 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:20,440 Speaker 6: sports wagering in the country. 629 00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:21,920 Speaker 3: Interesting. 630 00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:24,200 Speaker 2: Wow, Well, there's a lot at play here. And I'm 631 00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:28,520 Speaker 2: assuming that you're talking to Representative Titus and the senators 632 00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,799 Speaker 2: that you mentioned. Have you been lobbying actively with your 633 00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:33,880 Speaker 2: representatives here in Washington. 634 00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:39,080 Speaker 6: Sure, we've been talking with Representative Russia Dollar. We've we've 635 00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:42,600 Speaker 6: been talking. We've been talking with Representative Titus. We've talked 636 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:46,280 Speaker 6: to a number of Senators, Senator tech Cruz, Senator Mastow, 637 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:50,960 Speaker 6: and I feel very comfortable that I think people are 638 00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:54,120 Speaker 6: now getting to the point where there's enough awareness that 639 00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,839 Speaker 6: people are are are raising their eyes and saying, oh 640 00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,520 Speaker 6: my this was This is not good. I think everyone 641 00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:04,160 Speaker 6: understand it also impacts the number of recreational individuals that 642 00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:07,160 Speaker 6: that happened to go to casinos this. The only ones 643 00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:11,279 Speaker 6: that win out of this deal are the illegal bookmakers. 644 00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:15,760 Speaker 6: Every state loses in this deal, every state and every 645 00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:20,040 Speaker 6: legalized sports book, as well as the US consumer. So 646 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,600 Speaker 6: this is one that just needs to be fixed. It's 647 00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:24,880 Speaker 6: it's it's it's very black and white. It needs to 648 00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:25,440 Speaker 6: be fixed. 649 00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:29,040 Speaker 2: You make a pretty good case, and it sounds like 650 00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:31,959 Speaker 2: you're not too nervous. I have to admit there's something else, Derek. 651 00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:33,600 Speaker 2: I'd love to ask you about a couple of things 652 00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:35,759 Speaker 2: while you're here. It's a pleasure to spend time with 653 00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,400 Speaker 2: you on Bloomberg. There's something else in that. In that 654 00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,239 Speaker 2: big beautiful bill, it's no tax on tips. What does 655 00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:45,000 Speaker 2: that mean for your employees and just for service workers 656 00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:46,120 Speaker 2: throughout Las Vegas? 657 00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:46,920 Speaker 3: Was this a good idea. 658 00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,359 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean it was a good idea. I think 659 00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:53,480 Speaker 6: that I think the implementation, you know, there's going to 660 00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:55,719 Speaker 6: be a few hiccups on the implementation, but certainly I 661 00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,640 Speaker 6: could tell you Las Vegas is a is a very 662 00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:02,719 Speaker 6: good representative area, you know, within the country to to 663 00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,520 Speaker 6: talk about no tax on tips because it's the highest 664 00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:10,800 Speaker 6: percentage of of tip compensation of any of any city 665 00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:14,000 Speaker 6: in the country. I could certainly tell you for our employees, 666 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:17,000 Speaker 6: they're very excited about it. You know, as the details 667 00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:19,799 Speaker 6: came out with a twenty five thousand dollars maximum, that's 668 00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,920 Speaker 6: still very very impactful. I could tell you. I mean, 669 00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:24,799 Speaker 6: I think this is this is something that's gonna going 670 00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:28,600 Speaker 6: to help spur the economy on because because this money 671 00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,839 Speaker 6: is gonna get spent or it's gonna get reinvested. Our 672 00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:34,880 Speaker 6: our employees are are excited about this thing kicking it. 673 00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:38,799 Speaker 6: They actually initially thought it went in, uh it went 674 00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:41,520 Speaker 6: in about a month ago, and got real aggressive and 675 00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:44,600 Speaker 6: started asking about why why why were they still being 676 00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:47,960 Speaker 6: tax on tips. But after going through an explanation saying no, 677 00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:50,560 Speaker 6: this is gonna this is gonna happen on January first, 678 00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,040 Speaker 6: I could tell you I could tell you, Uh, there 679 00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:57,960 Speaker 6: are hundreds of thousands, hundreds of thousands of people that 680 00:36:58,000 --> 00:36:59,920 Speaker 6: are excited about this, and I think it's gonna be 681 00:36:59,920 --> 00:37:01,840 Speaker 6: a big impact in their daily lives. 682 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:03,239 Speaker 3: Mm hmm. 683 00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:07,160 Speaker 2: What's what's going on with business in Las Vegas right now, Derek? 684 00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:10,360 Speaker 2: We've seen it drop in visitors for six straight months. 685 00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,799 Speaker 2: I was just there in April, as a matter of fact, 686 00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:15,680 Speaker 2: and I was it was packed. I was in line 687 00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:17,960 Speaker 2: for everything that I tried to do. And I wonder 688 00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,160 Speaker 2: if there's a difference between the strip and Fremont, or 689 00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:22,880 Speaker 2: if you're just just seeing a different story than the 690 00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,920 Speaker 2: narrative out there, is business on the upswing or not? 691 00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:30,920 Speaker 6: Well, it's interesting, interesting question. What when you when you 692 00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:35,360 Speaker 6: see the headlines that's saying that visitations down, that's true, right, 693 00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:38,480 Speaker 6: visitation's been down, you know, anywhere from three percent to 694 00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:43,239 Speaker 6: ten percent month over month. But that's by bodies. When 695 00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:47,920 Speaker 6: you take a look at revenue within within this, Let's say, 696 00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:50,520 Speaker 6: for example, the state of Nevada with the game of 697 00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:54,000 Speaker 6: Control board, revenue was up the month of June. The 698 00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:56,279 Speaker 6: numbers came out and in the month of in the 699 00:37:56,320 --> 00:38:01,080 Speaker 6: month of June, overall, overall revenue news in in downtown 700 00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:05,560 Speaker 6: Las Vegas up double digits. Overall revenue on the strip 701 00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:10,399 Speaker 6: up three percent. So revenues are up, you get visitations down, 702 00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:12,799 Speaker 6: so that this is kind of where I think you're 703 00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,879 Speaker 6: seeing a little bit of a bifurcation in the US 704 00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:20,359 Speaker 6: economy right now. The I would say, the middle high 705 00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:24,360 Speaker 6: to high end not impacted, seems to be very very strong. 706 00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:28,560 Speaker 6: It's uh, it's it's down at the more the lower middle, 707 00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:32,800 Speaker 6: the lower middle that that's being impacted, where the cost 708 00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:35,680 Speaker 6: of the cost of inflation is taking their toll, the 709 00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:38,960 Speaker 6: cost of the cost of transportation, the cost of a flight, 710 00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:42,840 Speaker 6: cost of hotels, and I think that's that's the segment 711 00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:47,000 Speaker 6: that we're missing in Las Vegas. But really in tourism 712 00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:50,359 Speaker 6: in general, I mean it's the same same situation when 713 00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,800 Speaker 6: you take a look at the tourism board in Hawaii, 714 00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:57,040 Speaker 6: take a look at how tourism is impacting New York, 715 00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:01,200 Speaker 6: Miami and such. It's it's really the lower end that's 716 00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:04,880 Speaker 6: kind of getting hurt. And the one thing I would say, though, 717 00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,640 Speaker 6: is I'm a bit hopeful going forward because as of 718 00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:11,359 Speaker 6: right now, it looks as if interest rates are coming down, 719 00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:14,560 Speaker 6: and these interest rates are hurting that low end. I mean, 720 00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:16,440 Speaker 6: right now, I believe you know, we're looking at at 721 00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:20,520 Speaker 6: least one hundred and twenty five basis points, maybe one hundred. 722 00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,279 Speaker 6: You know, the market is indicating about one hundred and 723 00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:27,200 Speaker 6: forty basis points of where the interest rates would come down. 724 00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:29,600 Speaker 6: And I think that's going to really create a situation 725 00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:34,320 Speaker 6: where by by lowering adjustable rate mortgages, by lowering costs 726 00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:38,520 Speaker 6: on financing your car, lowering a number of other expenses, 727 00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,799 Speaker 6: that's going to help bring the economy back into a 728 00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:44,879 Speaker 6: more broad sense as opposed to just a top end sense. 729 00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:48,040 Speaker 2: Listen to you, Derek Stevens. You need to join us 730 00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:51,160 Speaker 2: on our next FED special. This is actually fascinating to 731 00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:54,680 Speaker 2: hear you cut this all up. Just lastly, I'm just 732 00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:57,000 Speaker 2: curious what's going to happen tonight. You got a big 733 00:39:57,120 --> 00:40:00,880 Speaker 2: night here, Eagles, Cowboys. I'm guessing that the pool's going 734 00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:03,520 Speaker 2: to be full circa swim By the way, if you haven't, 735 00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:05,760 Speaker 2: this is what I was referring to. It's a massive 736 00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,359 Speaker 2: swimming pool. They have like a forty foot tall HD 737 00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:11,239 Speaker 2: screen that somehow, Derek, you can see in the light 738 00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:14,440 Speaker 2: of day. I still don't understand how that possibly works. 739 00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,239 Speaker 2: But you've got a You've got an incredible amount of 740 00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,120 Speaker 2: money here in the Circus survivor pool. 741 00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:21,960 Speaker 3: It's over sixteen million dollars. 742 00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:24,839 Speaker 2: What's the crowd going to be like tonight and how 743 00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:26,920 Speaker 2: important is football season for your business? 744 00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:29,839 Speaker 6: Oh, it's going to be crazy. This is a great, 745 00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:34,680 Speaker 6: great day. Yeah. Stadium Swim is our rooftop location. It's 746 00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:40,080 Speaker 6: one hundred and forty three foot diagonal screen jointly jointly 747 00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:43,239 Speaker 6: developed with Daktronics, you know, publicly traded company. They did 748 00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:45,640 Speaker 6: a great job and with their help, we make sure 749 00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:47,319 Speaker 6: that there's no glare and you can always see it 750 00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:50,359 Speaker 6: clearly whether it's day or night. We'll have about five 751 00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:54,200 Speaker 6: thousand people out at Stadium Swim and it's completely sold out. 752 00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:57,319 Speaker 6: It's been sold out for weeks now and then and 753 00:40:57,360 --> 00:41:00,800 Speaker 6: then within the casino within Circa, we've got the world's 754 00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:04,880 Speaker 6: largest sports book that's an inside venue and that's completely 755 00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:08,000 Speaker 6: sold out as well. So we're very excited about that. 756 00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,800 Speaker 6: When you talk about our football contest, I just can't 757 00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:14,279 Speaker 6: believe how much demand there are for football contests. Last 758 00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,560 Speaker 6: year we had two football contests and we had a 759 00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:20,640 Speaker 6: total of twenty million dollars worth of entries. There were 760 00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:23,920 Speaker 6: one thousand dollars to enter. They were called Circa Million 761 00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:26,840 Speaker 6: and Circus Survivor, and we had twenty million dollars of entries. 762 00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:30,840 Speaker 6: We still have two days to go on those two contests, 763 00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:34,319 Speaker 6: plus our new contest called Circa Grandissimo, which is one 764 00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:38,840 Speaker 6: hundred thousand dollars entry fee contest. These numbers are going crazy. 765 00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:42,239 Speaker 6: We may have an excess of thirty million dollars of 766 00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:44,719 Speaker 6: entries into our football contest. And the way it works 767 00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:46,120 Speaker 6: is you have to show up in Nevada, so that 768 00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:49,240 Speaker 6: just adds to a little bit of Nevada tourism. 769 00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:52,319 Speaker 2: Well, this is why we're talking about this legislation. This 770 00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:57,080 Speaker 2: is big business, big money, and Derek Stevens is right 771 00:41:57,080 --> 00:42:00,520 Speaker 2: in the middle of it from Circa the d and 772 00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:02,680 Speaker 2: the Golden Gate. It's really a pleasure to have you 773 00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:04,440 Speaker 2: with us here. When producer James comes out there, you 774 00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:06,600 Speaker 2: got to help them get one of those couches at 775 00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:07,080 Speaker 2: the stage. 776 00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,200 Speaker 6: Oh no, so question about it. You know a guy, 777 00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:17,240 Speaker 6: we will be able to help out, no problem. 778 00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:19,759 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 779 00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:22,800 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple 780 00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,960 Speaker 2: Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can 781 00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:29,040 Speaker 2: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime 782 00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:31,760 Speaker 2: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.