1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg pm L podcast. I'm pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you at the grocery store 5 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p L podcast 6 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:28,520 Speaker 1: on iTunes, SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com pim Fox. 7 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: There has been a lot of discussion about the Kremlin's 8 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:34,920 Speaker 1: response to the election of Donald Trump as the next 9 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 1: president of the US, and our Bloomberg News reporter Henry 10 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: Meyer has dug in and gotten a sense from behind 11 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:48,560 Speaker 1: the scenes in Moscow what actually are Russian officials expecting 12 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: from President elect Trump's administration and just how excited they 13 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:54,319 Speaker 1: may be. Henri, thank you so much for joining us. 14 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:56,279 Speaker 1: You wrote this terrific story. Can you just give us 15 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: a snapshot of what the mood is among Russian officials 16 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: right now? I mean, I think what you're seeing at 17 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 1: the moment, you know, behind the scenes is a sense 18 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:13,360 Speaker 1: of growing alarm, principally because they have seen how the 19 00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 1: accusations of Russian interference in the election, of the ties 20 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 1: between Russia and Donald Trump are now snowballing, and there 21 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 1: is a sense that they don't know where this is heading. 22 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 1: Can you speak about Rex Tillerson and the Russian view 23 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 1: of his role not only in the administration, but his 24 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 1: role in the general US Russia relations. I mean, when 25 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 1: his appointment was announced, there was a sense that this 26 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: is someone we can do business with. It was very 27 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 1: positively received. Obviously, during his confirmation hearing, there was a 28 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: different message that went out from Rex to listen, he 29 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: called Russia a threat. The assumption here was that he 30 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 1: had to take a tougher line on Russia in order 31 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: to win um, you know, the confidence of lawmakers and 32 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,640 Speaker 1: and and get confirmed in his job. But I think 33 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:19,639 Speaker 1: that they do now believe that a number of appointees 34 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: of Donald Trump you may turn out to have a 35 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 1: different view than Trump has on Russia, a more hawkish 36 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: view and and and that's a problem. One of the 37 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: policies that Russia would most like to see changed coming 38 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: out of the US, I mean, first and foremost obviously 39 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 1: they want to see sanctions lifted, you know, whatever the 40 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 1: Russians say, and they put on a brave face and 41 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: talk about how sanctions have actually had a positive impact 42 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:54,640 Speaker 1: by by getting them to become more self sufficient. It's 43 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:59,079 Speaker 1: been a huge drag on growth because it's limited financing. 44 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: So that is probably the biggest thing they're looking for. 45 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:07,239 Speaker 1: Other than that, they would be very happy to work 46 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 1: together with the US on fighting terrorism. That's something they've 47 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 1: been pushing for for a long time. And as well, 48 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 1: to that point, why hasn't the US been more cooperative 49 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 1: with Russia and fighting terrorism? Well, Syria has been a 50 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: huge area of disagreement. I mean, the US and Russia 51 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 1: have tried to to reach agreement on that, but you know, 52 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:34,080 Speaker 1: they they've always fell apart these agreements. So you know, 53 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:39,119 Speaker 1: they are hoping that if Trump doesn't place any importance 54 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 1: on Assad's departure as the outgoing administration did, that they 55 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: can in fact find some common ground. Now Henry, the 56 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: nominee for US Ambassador to the United Nations, South Carolina 57 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: Governor and Nikki Hailey Calls said in a question during 58 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 1: her nomination hearing, said, I don't think that we can 59 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 1: trust them, meaning the Russians. Is this rhetoric or is 60 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: this just unveiling of of what the administration really feels. Well, 61 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:17,280 Speaker 1: that's what the Russians are asking themselves. I mean, you know, 62 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:21,559 Speaker 1: they certainly believe that you know that there's that there isn't. 63 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 1: These people have to take a tough line, you know, 64 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: and otherwise they're not going to get confirmed. Um. You know. 65 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 1: On the other hand, UM, I think they understand that 66 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 1: that there will be people in the administration who do 67 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 1: not share Trump's views. Now the issue is is he 68 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 1: going to rain them in, is he going to make 69 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 1: sure that everyone sticks to to to his stuns or not. 70 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: But they understand they will be dissenting voices within the administration. 71 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Henry Meyers, our politics and international 72 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: affairs reporter for Bloomberg News, joining us from Moscow, and 73 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 1: he gets to write fabulous sentences like this from Putin. 74 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 1: I find it hard to believe that he President elect 75 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 1: Trump rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals. 76 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 1: Although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. I'm 77 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: not going to even try to top that one. This 78 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg pim Fox. I have been looking at headlines 79 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 1: crossing my terminal all morning about just how optimistic everybody is, 80 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 1: whether it's consumer confidence rising to the highest level since 81 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: two thousand two, or some investor surveys, fund manager surveys 82 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 1: coming out of US and Bank of America Maryland showing 83 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 1: the most optimism since the financial crisis. But is this warranted? 84 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 1: I want to bring in John Augustine c E c 85 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,839 Speaker 1: IO of Huntington's Bank, who's going to answer that question 86 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:58,840 Speaker 1: for us? John, thank you for being here. Do you 87 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 1: think people are too optimistic? No, we don't. We just 88 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: don't think so. We think that was a game changer 89 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:06,039 Speaker 1: the election. We think we're in a we're in somewhat 90 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:09,719 Speaker 1: of a time out around confirmation hearings. Now, what what 91 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 1: we notice now is the economic numbers are also picking up. UH. 92 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 1: To support let's say, all these consumer numbers and business 93 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 1: surveys that have been coming out, we think the the 94 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 1: economic numbers are impressive as well, to go along with 95 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 1: this pickup we've seen in confidence and animal spirits. And 96 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 1: we'll see how the FED reacts to that. If that's 97 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 1: the case. Do you not find it ironic that the 98 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 1: central theme of not only the US presidential election, but 99 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 1: also seemingly the Brexit vote and a variety of other 100 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: populist movements around the world is inequality and the lack 101 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: of economic growth. When you're saying things, look pretty good. 102 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 1: What what I would say to that is the populism 103 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 1: movement seems to us to be about economic wealth at 104 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: home at this point in time, and how can it 105 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 1: be directed that way versus spread out among other countries. 106 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 1: So tariffs and protectionist policies that may make goods from 107 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 1: overseas and at least in the case the United States 108 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 1: overseas more expensive for US as long as the dollar 109 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: doesn't decrease in value. Yeah, in general, one of our thoughts, 110 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 1: one of our top ten thoughts this year at Huntington's 111 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 1: is about populism and is about in general, we would 112 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 1: view it as inflationary. We've taken steps in portfolios there 113 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 1: of our customers already, so yes, what would be some 114 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 1: of those steps, Well, we look at we started a 115 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 1: gold position, for instance in December. Then we're moving into 116 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: tips as well. Our fixed income team is looking treasury 117 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 1: inflation protective securities. Okay, so and just a gold ETFs 118 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 1: or actual gold E G L D E t f S. 119 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 1: So we're trying to think about that. In December, our 120 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 1: risk of inflation flipped with the risk of recession. Now 121 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 1: it's higher over the next six to twelve months, so 122 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 1: We're we're following a very deliberate pattern to try to 123 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 1: look out for our customers as we see this as 124 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 1: a little bit of a game changer. John, you help 125 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 1: oversee about seventeen and a half billion dollars as chief 126 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: investment officer at Huntington's. Have you started to reduce the 127 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 1: cash allocation in your client's portfolios. It's been consistently low, 128 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 1: you know, that's one of the things we've lost as 129 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 1: investment managers on the buy side where we are that 130 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 1: we've lost really since the Great Recession as cash as 131 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 1: an asset class. So it's been consistently low. We really 132 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:44,680 Speaker 1: can't get it much lower. We we go down about 133 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 1: two percent. That's just for cash flow purposes. So these 134 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:51,719 Speaker 1: scenario that you're portraying really is a bullish one one 135 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 1: that would favor stocks. How much of the bond allocation 136 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 1: are you shifting to stocks? What's the new allocation for today? 137 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 1: So in percent overweight stocks versus bonds, we did take 138 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: some profits in high yield bonds. Recently we move those 139 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 1: proceeds to tips, so we're looking at more defensive allocation 140 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,840 Speaker 1: within the bonds. When did you shift the tem percent 141 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: overweight in stocks over the past two weeks. Excuse me, 142 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 1: the tem percent overweight in stocks that was mid year 143 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 1: last year, Okay, But the the high yield problems, it's 144 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 1: because you think that the yields have just gotten too 145 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 1: low relative to where the fundamentals are correct correct, and 146 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:36,679 Speaker 1: we still have a cyclical stance in stocks where we're 147 00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 1: looking at smaller MidCap us primarily keeping dollars. Here's the 148 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 1: stock market kind of rotates as it does generally in January. 149 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 1: I noticed also that you're looking at technology, uh, and 150 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 1: Microsoft is one example. What are some of the characteristics 151 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 1: that led you to microsoft restructuring being completed more towards 152 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:01,679 Speaker 1: the cloud, let's say, and more towards revenues annuity type 153 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,679 Speaker 1: revenues coming out of that. So in our view, restructuring 154 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 1: is done. Profit growth has has increased and been elevated 155 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 1: out of that. Now to us in our equity team, 156 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 1: there's a consistency to that that we like. How insulated 157 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,080 Speaker 1: do you think the US economy is from what's going 158 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:22,719 Speaker 1: on around the rest of the world. Um, let's see policy. 159 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 1: Let's say, if if the economic numbers started getting better 160 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 1: before the election, that's what we're coming to realize now. 161 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 1: Now the question to us is how much will the 162 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 1: new administration, for lack of a better term, juice the 163 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 1: economic numbers to get us from one to three percent 164 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 1: and then the US is the relative leader in the world. 165 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 1: Are you hedging against possibly being wrong? And if so, 166 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:51,319 Speaker 1: how we're not hedging yet. I mean, the first place 167 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 1: we moved is in the bond bond portfolios. If we 168 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 1: don't see policy initiatives come out pro growth US policy 169 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: initiatives come out the second area, then we would look 170 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: to trim as US small and mid caps, which, like 171 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 1: a lot of stocks, have had a good run. So 172 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 1: we're waiting for the agenda to come out. We think 173 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,320 Speaker 1: we're in this time out around confirmation hearings right now, 174 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 1: and we still suggest that this administration and these cabinet 175 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 1: members it's going to be bold whatever comes out of 176 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 1: the group energy. Give me your thoughts on energy. Yeah, 177 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 1: fifty five dollars a barrel. That's what's the futures market, 178 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 1: and market has a fifty five out the rest of 179 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 1: the year. The oil companies say they can make money 180 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:40,080 Speaker 1: there and it's a big turnaround in profits this year. 181 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: That's the sector right that in financials or the two 182 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:47,559 Speaker 1: sectors X Mobile X on Mobile slumberge Valerio is interesting 183 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 1: because it's is a big export. Now, what about ten 184 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 1: year treasuries? What level would the yield have to go 185 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 1: to to be attractive? Again to you, nominal GDP. So 186 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 1: with what we've noticed, very definitively since the election, the 187 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:08,599 Speaker 1: tenure treasury yield was hanging out since the Great Recession 188 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 1: at real year over year GDP growth rate. Now that's flipped. 189 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:17,680 Speaker 1: It's trying to get up to nominal year over year GDP, 190 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,680 Speaker 1: which is about two point nine percent now, so north 191 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,960 Speaker 1: at two point nine, then we'd look at it. Thanks 192 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 1: very much for spending time with us. Thank you for 193 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: interesting and um, I guess since you're in Columbus, Ohio, 194 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:31,920 Speaker 1: do you think it's just a quick thing. Is it 195 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 1: a better view from Columbus the economy than it is, 196 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 1: let's say, on the two coasts. In my view, I've 197 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: always been in Ohio in Chicago and Colorado have always 198 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:44,400 Speaker 1: been in the interior. And yes, it's always good having 199 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 1: a view that you can look both ways outwards. Thank 200 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 1: you very much. John Augustine. Augustine he is the chief 201 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 1: investment officer for a Huntington's National Bank. They have approximately 202 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 1: seventeen and a half billion assets under management. Based in Columbus, Ohio, 203 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: and you can follow him on Twitter at John Underscore. 204 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: Augustine pim Fox. I'm very glad that we get to 205 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 1: talk about something that I've ever seen a lot of 206 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 1: catastrophic headlines about recently. For example, a Business Insider has 207 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,200 Speaker 1: a headline today there will be no one in charge 208 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:30,559 Speaker 1: of America's nuclear arsenal when Trump takes office. I want 209 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 1: to bring in Jonathan Bernstein. He's a Bloomberg View columnist. 210 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 1: He's also uh teaches political science at the University of 211 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: Texas at San Antonio, and he wrote a really great 212 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 1: column talking about how the empty Trump administration will struggle Jonathan, 213 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 1: how empty is the administration at this point? Well? Very um. Eventually, Um, 214 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:58,200 Speaker 1: they're supposed to put thousands of people into the executive branch. Um, 215 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 1: we have a so far they put twenty nine. Um. 216 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,840 Speaker 1: That is, they've named twenty nine people. Of course, nobody's 217 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:06,719 Speaker 1: been confirmed yet, and a lot of them aren't even 218 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 1: ready for the Senate attack. Out of a thousand, out 219 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 1: of thousands, really, um, about a thousand yet confirmed by 220 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 1: the Senate and then out of those, we have about 221 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:22,320 Speaker 1: six hundred and nineties that one of the experts seem 222 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 1: to think are the top positions out of those nine. Well, 223 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 1: we've got news that says that President elect Donald Trump 224 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 1: is asking about fifty senior Obama administration officials to stay 225 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 1: on in their roles. That's according to Trump spokesman Sean Spicer. 226 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 1: That's fifty, and it includes such roles as a special 227 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 1: envoy to the Global Coalition fighting the Islamic State in 228 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 1: Iraq and Syria. That's uh, Brett McGurk, Is that enough 229 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 1: or are are we really just you know, fifty out 230 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 1: of a thousand. That doesn't sound like quite a lot. Well, 231 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 1: there are people that keep the lights on. There are 232 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 1: permanent civil servants who will do the work of the 233 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 1: of the various agencies um as caretakers. And it's not 234 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 1: unusual too for for administrations take time. The Obama administration 235 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 1: was ahead of this space, but not way ahead of 236 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 1: this space. And actually they had some stumbles around just 237 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 1: after he was sworn in, which load them further. So 238 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: you know, it's not, if not as catastrophic as the 239 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 1: initial number makes it sound, but it's bad. So what 240 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 1: are the potential consequences of this. Well, there's there's really two. 241 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 1: First of all, the agencies and the departments are not 242 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 1: going to work as well without UM people in place. 243 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:43,840 Speaker 1: They will continue to carry on what they're doing, but 244 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 1: how well will they react to new things? You know, 245 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 1: not necessarily all that Well? Which departments do you think 246 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 1: are most at risk for being less efficient than usual? 247 00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:57,320 Speaker 1: You know, I would guess if I had to say, 248 00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 1: the ones that you don't read about in the headlines, 249 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: or the ones that have sort of that may be 250 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 1: called on to suddenly do things. So you know, we 251 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 1: have no FEMA director named by the new UM the 252 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 1: Emergency Management Agency named by the new administration, so sorry, 253 00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 1: might get lower. Yeah, um. But the National Security Council, right, 254 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 1: I mean there are vacancies there. Okay. The National Security 255 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 1: Council is in a different category because those people are 256 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 1: not confirmed by Congress. It's not clear how many people 257 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: they have. We have competing articles, some of which say 258 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 1: they're ready to go and some would say it's chaos. Uh, 259 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 1: And you start to wonder, well, who is leaking to 260 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 1: try to undermine who. We have a lot of reports 261 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 1: about bickering between the incoming national Security advisor and the 262 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 1: incoming Secretary Defense, UM, perhaps other factions going on. Some 263 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 1: of this is normal for administration, but the level of 264 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 1: it seems to be way beyond normal. Is it normal 265 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 1: to turf out all ambassadors political ambassadors, people that had 266 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:06,119 Speaker 1: in a political appointment to become US ambassador to foreign nations? 267 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 1: Is it is it normal to turf them all out 268 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 1: on inauguration day? There was a story about that UM 269 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:16,639 Speaker 1: that sort of treated as as a real explorer. It 270 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: seems like it's a minor I'm not a specific expert 271 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 1: in the ambassadors, but from what I can tell, it's 272 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:28,360 Speaker 1: a fairly minor issue. UM, they're not doing that as 273 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:32,639 Speaker 1: far as I can tell. With the UM career diplomats right, 274 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:37,280 Speaker 1: the career diplomats so and most of the other people 275 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,959 Speaker 1: the political pointe's expect to leave anyway, We do have, 276 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 1: you know, again, career people below them at all of 277 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:46,760 Speaker 1: the importance in all of the important country. So it's 278 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:49,360 Speaker 1: not like nobody can turn the lights on. But again, 279 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 1: there there are several of these stories that sort of 280 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 1: imply more cast than usual. Just real quick, Jonathan, do 281 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 1: you expect the rank and file the careers to around 282 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: that's a very good question. We don't know the answer yet. Um. 283 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:07,919 Speaker 1: One of the things that I wrote about this week is, 284 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:13,719 Speaker 1: you know, most career civil servants, despite the you know, 285 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: popular image, they're very good professionals. They take their jobs seriously. Um. 286 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:24,440 Speaker 1: But if you ask me, having no new supervision, plus 287 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: a president coming in who in some cases has disdained 288 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:30,679 Speaker 1: for the mission of their agencies, you've got a question. 289 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:34,640 Speaker 1: What happens? Jonathan Bernstein, thanks very much, Bloomberg of you columnist, 290 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. President elect Donald Trump selected Sonny Perdue, 291 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 1: the former governor of Georgia, to be his Secretary of Agriculture, 292 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 1: and here to tell us more about the nominee is 293 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 1: Alan bure Our, Bloomberg markets reporter when it comes to 294 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 1: everything agriculture, and of course he is the co host 295 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:10,760 Speaker 1: of the great radio program Politics, Policy and Power UH 296 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:15,639 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg Studios in Washington, d C. And 297 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 1: you can follow Allen on Twitter at Allen BURGA B 298 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 1: B J E R G A. Allen. Um, go ahead, 299 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,679 Speaker 1: give us the lowdown on Sunny Purdue. Well, thanks for 300 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 1: having me on the show, and let me get down 301 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:30,919 Speaker 1: to my rural roots here pim and UH having the 302 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: j and the Twitter that everybody is very considerate towards 303 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:37,439 Speaker 1: that all the time talking about Sunny Purdue. Um. He 304 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:40,919 Speaker 1: is uh former governor of Georgia, the first governor of 305 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:44,639 Speaker 1: Georgia since reconstruction from the Republican Party. So his election 306 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:46,960 Speaker 1: in two thousand two into two thousand three was a 307 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:50,119 Speaker 1: big deal. Governed a little bit as a centrist, but 308 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 1: at the same time a very traditional profile for an 309 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:55,679 Speaker 1: agricultural secretary. You know, governor of a state with a 310 00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,919 Speaker 1: large rural population. Now it is different that his orientation 311 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,120 Speaker 1: is more Southern. A lot of your agriculture secretaries will 312 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:06,400 Speaker 1: be Midwestern governors, and that matters in agriculture, your regional orientation, 313 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 1: because it makes you more aware of some crops than others. 314 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:12,360 Speaker 1: He will be seen as a cotton guy, a peanut guy. 315 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 1: He has a doctorate in veterinary medicine, so he understands 316 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,159 Speaker 1: animal agriculture as well. But we really don't know what 317 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,639 Speaker 1: he thinks about ethanol and bile fields. Producers are watching 318 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:24,439 Speaker 1: that pretty closely. I should also just mention that he 319 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 1: has no relation to the Purdue family, famed for UH 320 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 1: the Purdue farms chicken. No, he does not, because I 321 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:34,200 Speaker 1: feel like I have to mention that, and that is 322 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 1: important to know because when you have all these billionaires 323 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 1: in the cabinet, that would be a very logical association 324 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:44,120 Speaker 1: to make Lisa. But he is a cousin to Senator 325 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:48,160 Speaker 1: David Purdue, a Republican of Georgia, and after Jeff's sessions, 326 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 1: David Perdue may have been Donald Trump's biggest supporter in 327 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,679 Speaker 1: the Senate was stumping for him early, was also pushing 328 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:58,120 Speaker 1: for his cousin to be Secretary of Agriculture. Purdue met 329 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: with Donald Trump and Trumps how we're way back November 330 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:03,440 Speaker 1: thirty to talk about this job. It got held up 331 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 1: because there was a hope that agriculture could be a 332 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:09,479 Speaker 1: way to diversify Trump's cabinet. A lot of Hispanics were 333 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 1: brought in um including lieutenant governor former Lieutenant governor of California, 334 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:15,719 Speaker 1: Abel Maldonado. But in the end they kind of ran 335 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:17,679 Speaker 1: into a time crunch and they went back to the 336 00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:20,360 Speaker 1: tried and true, which turned out to be sunny Perdue. Well, so, 337 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,879 Speaker 1: what exactly are the main issues that he's going to 338 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 1: be facing? I mean, is it ethanol? Well, ethanol is 339 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 1: going to be a big one because you have a 340 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,160 Speaker 1: lot of people in Trump administration who are very skeptical 341 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 1: of ethanol policy and agriculture. Even though rural votes helped 342 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,400 Speaker 1: put Donald Trump in the White House, the farm vote 343 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 1: can be across purposes with the Trump administration. Um, you know, 344 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 1: immigration reform is a big deal to these folks because 345 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:45,399 Speaker 1: of the agricultural workforce. So is trade because agriculture actually 346 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,560 Speaker 1: has a net trade surplus. It's one of the few 347 00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 1: industries that that do in the United States. So Sunny Perdue, 348 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 1: interestingly enough, supported an immigration crackdown when he was in Georgia, 349 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 1: and and that may actually make him a little more 350 00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,639 Speaker 1: amenable to what Donald Trump may have to say. But 351 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 1: in trade, there's a real fear in the agricultural community 352 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 1: that Donald Trump is going to do something on manufacturing 353 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:07,200 Speaker 1: that's going to make China angry and they're going to 354 00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 1: cut off their sales of soybeans. And it's a lot 355 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 1: of years. China is the number one buyer of US 356 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 1: agricultural goods. Sonny produced business background he once ran a 357 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 1: grain and fertilizer business. Is that creating some pushback from 358 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,439 Speaker 1: opponents of the nomination. Well, there's a lot of concern 359 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 1: you know that this is another voice of big agriculture 360 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 1: um and actually that also was echoed in the Obama administration. 361 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:35,159 Speaker 1: Even you know, the previous Secretary, Tom Vilsack was very 362 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 1: supportive of things like organic farming, agriculture and such, but 363 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,240 Speaker 1: he was from the number one US ethanol state. You know, 364 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,159 Speaker 1: with Sonny Purdue, you know, you take a look at 365 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 1: some of these mergers that are going on with you know, 366 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 1: Bearman Santo, is he going to speak out as a 367 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,199 Speaker 1: critical voice on some of this? Also, he was a 368 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 1: big supporter of the expansion of the poultry industry in Georgia, 369 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 1: and and a lot of folks who care about animal welfare, 370 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:59,439 Speaker 1: environmental sustainability, they look at sort of these megapoultry forms 371 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:03,359 Speaker 1: farms as as the poster child of environmental waste in 372 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 1: modern agriculture. So this isn't the only nomination that is 373 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:12,640 Speaker 1: getting making headlines today. Steve Minusian President Elect Trump's nominee 374 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 1: for Treasury Secretary, is currently at the moment testifying in 375 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:21,240 Speaker 1: front of Senate. What are the big issues that he's facing. Well, 376 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,680 Speaker 1: so he is speaking right now, and it's a very 377 00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:27,399 Speaker 1: traditional looking hearing. You know, he has his fiancee and 378 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,359 Speaker 1: his three children there. Um, there's a lot of hard 379 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 1: hits from him from senators like Elizabeth Warren and others 380 00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:37,240 Speaker 1: that this guy ran a foreclosure machine during the financial crisis. 381 00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 1: Of course, you know, profiting during the financial crisis. He's 382 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:44,240 Speaker 1: saying that this was a loan modification machine he was running. 383 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 1: That he was trying to help people as much as 384 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,199 Speaker 1: he could, but in the end, he was running a business. Um. 385 00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:50,439 Speaker 1: And then there's that big interest in business and that 386 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,400 Speaker 1: experience in business that will make him a good practical 387 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:55,640 Speaker 1: Treasury secretary. That seems to be where the fault lines 388 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:59,480 Speaker 1: are being drawn right now. Alan, in your role additional 389 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 1: role co host of Politics, Policy and Power, can you 390 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 1: characterize what it has been like to be in Washington 391 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:09,359 Speaker 1: and try to read the tea leaves of what is 392 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 1: going to happen tomorrow and after tomorrow. It's an incredibly 393 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,119 Speaker 1: complex picture with a lot of moving pieces. I mean, 394 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 1: let's look at the inauguration itself. You're experiencing a lower 395 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 1: number of people coming to town and yet higher security 396 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,440 Speaker 1: for those people because you just don't know how the 397 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:28,439 Speaker 1: volatile combination of people who have come to see Trump 398 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,919 Speaker 1: and the people who have come to march against Trump. 399 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,159 Speaker 1: How that's going to mix from a policy standpoint. You know, 400 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:36,400 Speaker 1: you have a lot of these nominations that are sort 401 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 1: of being rushed through Capitol Hill right now. There's some 402 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,480 Speaker 1: concern about ethics and about the potential amount of time 403 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:43,000 Speaker 1: that they have to take a look at these folks. 404 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer from New York is trying to slow walk 405 00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,159 Speaker 1: some of the nominations, maybe drag out the process a 406 00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 1: little bit while the Democrats make their points um. And then, 407 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,880 Speaker 1: of course you have these huge questions about foreign policy 408 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 1: coming up in the next few weeks. You simply do 409 00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,159 Speaker 1: not know what u s foreign policy is going to 410 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,119 Speaker 1: look like. That, of course, gives us a lot of 411 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 1: smart people to talk about a lot of smart things 412 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 1: on the show. Thank you so much. Alan berga Bloomberg 413 00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 1: News reporter as well as co host of Politics, Policy 414 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 1: and Power coming up after us on Bloomberg Radio This. Yeah, 415 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 1: thanks for listening to the Bloomberg pian L podcast. You 416 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 1: can subscribe and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, or 417 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:31,920 Speaker 1: whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Pim Fox. I'm out 418 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,760 Speaker 1: there on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm out there on 419 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:38,080 Speaker 1: Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. You 420 00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio