WEBVTT - Smoke Blankets Northeast; Trump Gets Target Letter

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<v Speaker 1>From the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studios. This is Bloomberg day

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<v Speaker 1>Break for Thursday, June eighth.

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<v Speaker 2>Coming up today, Smoke blankets the Northeast and it could

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<v Speaker 2>last a few more days.

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<v Speaker 1>Former President Donald Trump learns he's under criminal investigation.

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<v Speaker 2>President Biden vetos a bill aimed at killing his student

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<v Speaker 2>debt relief, and.

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<v Speaker 1>We hear from Ray Delio and Brian Monahan at this

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<v Speaker 1>year's a Bloomberg invest conference in New York.

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<v Speaker 3>Germany blames Russia for the destruction of a dam in

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<v Speaker 3>southern Ukraine, blast New York City Sue's thirty counties for

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<v Speaker 3>blocking deals to How's migrants. I'm Michael Barnard Moore Ahead.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm John stash Eward Sports. The Mets in Atlanta lost

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<v Speaker 4>their fifth in the row. The Nuggets beat they hate

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<v Speaker 4>and lead the NBA Finals two games to one.

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<v Speaker 5>That's all straight Ahead on Bloomberg day Break, the Business

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<v Speaker 5>news you need to sturn your day in just one

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<v Speaker 5>fifteen minute podcast each morning on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 5>Business app, and everywhere you get your podcasts.

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<v Speaker 6>Good morning, I'm Nathan.

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<v Speaker 1>Hager and I'm Garen Moscow. Here are the stories We're

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<v Speaker 1>following today, we.

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<v Speaker 2>Want to get an update first on the smoky blanket

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<v Speaker 2>billowing across the East coast. It could stay with us

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<v Speaker 2>a few more days. Let's get the details from Bloomberg's

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<v Speaker 2>John Tucker, John and Nathan.

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<v Speaker 7>The hazen smoke from those fires in Quebec and Ontario

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<v Speaker 7>will return today and tomorrow. Our meteorologist Rob Carolyn tells

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<v Speaker 7>us a low pressure system over Atlantic Canna is going

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<v Speaker 7>to start to pull away over the next few days.

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<v Speaker 8>Shouldn't be as bad across the Tri state area. Visibilit

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<v Speaker 8>would be a bit better, but there will be some smoke.

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<v Speaker 8>And yesterday the Boston area escaped the smoke, and they

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<v Speaker 8>should do so again today. And it definitely looks hazy

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<v Speaker 8>in Washington today.

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<v Speaker 7>Now the wildfire smoke is hazardous in partant because it

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<v Speaker 7>contains tiny inhalible particles. The health experts recommend everybody limited

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<v Speaker 7>their time outdoors now. The air quality index in New

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<v Speaker 7>York City reached three hundred and ninety two yesterday. That's

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<v Speaker 7>a level considered to be hazardous for all groups, including

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<v Speaker 7>healthy people. For comparison's sake, two one hundred is the

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<v Speaker 7>equivalent of smoking an entire pack of cigarettes. Breathing polluted

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<v Speaker 7>air also linked to an increased risk for dementia, and

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<v Speaker 7>Nathan and Karen being at work could be the safest place.

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<v Speaker 7>Modern buildings, air handling and ventilation systems are operated to

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<v Speaker 7>optimize the indoor air quality and use high efficiency filters.

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<v Speaker 7>In New York, I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, John, thank you. Well. Another major story we're

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<v Speaker 1>following this morning takes us to politics. Former President Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump has been notified that he is a target in

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<v Speaker 1>a classified documents case. Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has the story.

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<v Speaker 9>The notification in a letter from the Justice Department, saying

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<v Speaker 9>that this is the result of the federal probe. Prosecutors

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<v Speaker 9>have been building a case, including testimony from former aids,

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<v Speaker 9>including former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. Meadows has testified

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<v Speaker 9>before federal grand juries in Washington and Miami for Special

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<v Speaker 9>counsel Jack Smith. The Justice Department is required to notify

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<v Speaker 9>individuals if they are a target based on somebstantial evidence

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<v Speaker 9>linking that person to the commission of a crime. In

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<v Speaker 9>San Francisco, I'm at Baxter, Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, Ed, thank you. On Capitol Hill today, House Republicans

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<v Speaker 2>had planned to vote on holding FBI Director Christopher Ray

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<v Speaker 2>in contempt. Now that's been called off. House Oversight Chairman

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<v Speaker 2>James Comber says the FBI has quote caved and is

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<v Speaker 2>letting all members of his committee see a disputed document.

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<v Speaker 2>Republicans claim the document links President Biden to wrongdoing by

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<v Speaker 2>an unnamed foreign national.

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<v Speaker 1>Meantime, Nathan President Biden has vetoted bill aimed at killing

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<v Speaker 1>his high profile student dead relief program, and a White

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<v Speaker 1>House video, the President said he'll keep fighting to make

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<v Speaker 1>sure college is cheaper.

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<v Speaker 10>Some of the same members of Congress who supported this

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<v Speaker 10>bill voted through huge tax custs for corporations and the

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<v Speaker 10>wealthy as well, But when it comes to hard working

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<v Speaker 10>Americans trying to get ahead dealing with the student debt relief,

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<v Speaker 10>that's where they drew the line.

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<v Speaker 1>President Biden did not address some of the Congressional Democrats

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<v Speaker 1>who broke with him on the bill. Senators Joe Manchin

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<v Speaker 1>and Joe Tester and Democrat turned independent Kirsten Cinema join

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<v Speaker 1>with Republicans to vote against the student debt relief measure.

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<v Speaker 2>Well Karen uk. Prime Minister Rishi Sunek is in Washington

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<v Speaker 2>later today, he takes part in a joint news conference

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<v Speaker 2>with President Biden. That's on the heels of a meeting

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<v Speaker 2>with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy yesterday.

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<v Speaker 5>When our bond is stronger, the world is safer, and

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<v Speaker 5>democracy grows further when we've.

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<v Speaker 11>Stood together, I agree with you, the world hos benefited.

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<v Speaker 11>And what we need to do now is figure out

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<v Speaker 11>how do we make sure that relationship is strong to

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<v Speaker 11>deal with the challenges of the future. I know that's

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<v Speaker 11>what we're going to be talking about, but particularly strengthening

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<v Speaker 11>our economies because that's what it's all about.

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<v Speaker 2>And Prime Minister soon next joint news conference with President

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<v Speaker 2>Biden is set for one thirty pm Eastern And.

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<v Speaker 1>Return to Wall Street now, Nathan, and we've been speaking

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<v Speaker 1>with some high profile names at the Bloomberg invest conference

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<v Speaker 1>in New York. Bank of America CEO Brian moynihan tells

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<v Speaker 1>us higher capital requirements will hit lending. That's after reports

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<v Speaker 1>that large US banks may have to boost their capital

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<v Speaker 1>by an average of twenty percent today.

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<v Speaker 12>It's a fairly straightforward. If our capital ratios go up

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<v Speaker 12>by hundred basis points, we basically you simply put you

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<v Speaker 12>can't make about one hundred and fifty million dollars loans

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<v Speaker 12>and because people say, well you have more capite, you

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<v Speaker 12>make more loans. But if we took risk on that capital,

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<v Speaker 12>we wouldn't have that capital ratio. So it has to

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<v Speaker 12>be a riskless build. A capital can't be out there

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<v Speaker 12>taking risk.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank of America CEO Brian Lenahan spoke with a Bloomberg's

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<v Speaker 1>David west End. Stay tuned for more of that interview

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<v Speaker 1>coming up shortly on Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 2>We also heard from Wherry Daly, O Bloomberg invest Karen,

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<v Speaker 2>the billionaire founder Bridgewater Associates, thinks we're getting close to

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<v Speaker 2>the end of FED interest rate hikes.

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<v Speaker 13>The interest rates are now at a level that they're

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<v Speaker 13>probably going to stay at, but they're probably not going

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<v Speaker 13>to rise much from a year, and there's tightness and

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<v Speaker 13>the consequences of that are going to be a weaker

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<v Speaker 13>economy going forward.

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<v Speaker 2>Ry Dalio predicts the US economy will get weaker from here.

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<v Speaker 2>Catch the full conversation and all our best interviews each

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<v Speaker 2>day on the daily Bloomberg Talks podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>Nathan. We also caught up with Kim Kardashian. She was

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<v Speaker 1>at the Super Return Conference in Berlin, the reality TV

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<v Speaker 1>starter an entrepreneur, presented her debut private equity fund to

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<v Speaker 1>a crowd of curious investors, and she spoke with David Rubinstein.

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<v Speaker 14>I'm honestly most looking forward to my relationships with the founders.

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<v Speaker 14>I love hearing people's stories and hearing what their magic

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<v Speaker 14>sauces behind their company and why they wanted to start

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<v Speaker 14>the company that they did, and what their vision is

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<v Speaker 14>and just hope that I can help that.

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<v Speaker 1>And Kim Kardashian's private equity fund, Sky Partners, is targeting

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<v Speaker 1>up to twelve investments, each requiring anywhere from one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>to five hundred million dollars of equity.

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<v Speaker 2>And you take a look at some of the other

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<v Speaker 2>stories making news in New York and around the world.

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<v Speaker 2>We're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Nathan.

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<v Speaker 3>Germany blame Russian President Vladimir Putin for the destruction of

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<v Speaker 3>the Kakova Dam in southern Ukraine. Germany was joined by

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<v Speaker 3>other European NATO members and denouncing it as a war crime.

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<v Speaker 3>The US has yet to make an assessment on what

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<v Speaker 3>caused them to collapse. State Department spokesman Vedant Patel says,

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<v Speaker 3>while it is still trying to figure out what happened,

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<v Speaker 3>the US government is mobilizing humanitarian resources.

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<v Speaker 15>I'm certainly not going to get into internal assessments, but

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<v Speaker 15>I will note that we continue to be in close

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<v Speaker 15>touch with Ukrainian authorities on providing assistance to the civilians displaced,

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<v Speaker 15>as well as continuing to assess what transpired.

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<v Speaker 3>Ukrainian authorities are Russian supplies of drinking water to areas

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<v Speaker 3>affected by flooding from the collapse dam. Supreme Court justices

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<v Speaker 3>and other federal justices release their annual reports disclosing paid travel,

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<v Speaker 3>outside income, investments, significant gifts, and the source of spousal income.

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<v Speaker 3>Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito have asked for an extension,

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<v Speaker 3>which means their filings won't arrive until after the end

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<v Speaker 3>of the term. President Joe Biden has invited thousands of

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<v Speaker 3>LGBTQ individuals to the White House today to celebrate Pride Month.

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<v Speaker 3>Biden plans to announce new initiatives to protect communities from attacks.

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<v Speaker 3>White House spokesperson Karine Jean Pierre.

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<v Speaker 16>We believe that not only does this community need to

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<v Speaker 16>be celebrated and continue to be celebrated, as he's done

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<v Speaker 16>many times before in this past two years. But we

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<v Speaker 16>also need to make sure that we let the community

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<v Speaker 16>know that the President has their back and we're going

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<v Speaker 16>to continue to fight for them.

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<v Speaker 3>White House spokesperson Karine Jean Pierre is the first openly

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<v Speaker 3>gay press secretary. It's the next chapter in the battle

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<v Speaker 3>over the flood of migrants to New York City and

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<v Speaker 3>Upstate counties. The Big Apple sued thirty upstate in Long

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<v Speaker 3>Island Counties for issuing executive orders blocking local hotels and

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<v Speaker 3>motels from contracting to house migrants sent from the city.

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<v Speaker 3>New York Mayor Eric Adams says the suit is aimed

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<v Speaker 3>at ending xenophobic bignitry. Meanwhile, Mayor Adams plans to direct

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<v Speaker 3>a cumulative sixty billion dollars of contractual work to minority

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<v Speaker 3>and women owned businesses by twenty thirty. The goal is

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<v Speaker 3>requiring the city to more than double as annual rate

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<v Speaker 3>of contracts to underrepresented communities. Global News twenty four hours

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<v Speaker 3>a day, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists,

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<v Speaker 3>nantilists and over one hundred and twenty countries. Him Michael Barr,

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<v Speaker 3>this is Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 2>Nathan, thanks Michael time for the Bloomberg Sports update. For that,

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<v Speaker 2>we bring in John Staneshauer. All right, anything Game.

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<v Speaker 4>Three of the NBA Finals eating Miami, and some triple

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<v Speaker 4>double history. Denver's Nicola Jokis and Jamal Murray first teammates

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<v Speaker 4>to both have them in the Finals game. But more

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<v Speaker 4>than that, they're the first teammates in any NBA game,

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<v Speaker 4>regular or postseason to both have triple doubles and both

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<v Speaker 4>score at least thirty points. Jokid score thirty two at

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<v Speaker 4>twenty one rebounds. Murray went for thirty four, got his

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<v Speaker 4>tenth board with nine seconds left. They both had tennis.

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<v Speaker 4>Says Denver, Meat the heat one oh nine ninety four

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<v Speaker 4>and leading the series now two to one. Now that

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<v Speaker 4>shot fifty one percent, the heat only thirty seven. Denver

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<v Speaker 4>was plus twenty five in rebound. Game four tomorrow, another

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<v Speaker 4>loss for the Mets, second night in a row in Atlanta,

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<v Speaker 4>where they had a four to one lead sixth inning,

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<v Speaker 4>Braves again came back, won seven to five on a

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<v Speaker 4>Michael Harris to run homer in the eight off Adam Ottavino.

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<v Speaker 4>The Mets have lost five in a row. Yankees in

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<v Speaker 4>White Sox Air Quality Now doubleheader today starting at four.

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<v Speaker 4>Rory McElroy t he's off today at the Canadian Opened.

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<v Speaker 4>His first public reaction to the PGA Live merger. McElroy

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<v Speaker 4>had been the most outspoken against lib which he says

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<v Speaker 4>he still hates and he admits to a feeling of

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<v Speaker 4>being a sacrificial lamb, but he said the merger was

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<v Speaker 4>somewhat inevitable.

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<v Speaker 17>PIF and the Saudeas want to spend money in the

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<v Speaker 17>game of golf. It is they they want to do

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<v Speaker 17>this and they weren't going to stop. So Hi, can

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<v Speaker 17>we you know the thing for me and this is

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<v Speaker 17>one thing that I've always thought about, how can we

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<v Speaker 17>get that money into the game but use it the

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<v Speaker 17>right way.

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<v Speaker 4>Mcklroy supported in BATTLEPGA Commissioner Jay Monahan. They'll play the

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<v Speaker 4>women's semifinals today at the French Open. Lionel Messi will

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<v Speaker 4>play Angel League Soccer in Miami.

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<v Speaker 5>John stash Ellen.

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<v Speaker 4>Bloomberg Sports.

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<v Speaker 5>From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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<v Speaker 5>Boston to Washington, d C. Nationwide on Syrias Exam, the

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<v Speaker 5>Bloomberg Business Appen Bloomberg dot Com.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Daybreak, Good morning, I'm Nathan Hagar. Millions

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<v Speaker 2>of Americans are waking up this morning following visions of

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<v Speaker 2>apocalyptic orange skies. Wildfires from Canada have sent smoke billowing

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<v Speaker 2>across the Northeast, and air quality warnings have been up

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<v Speaker 2>from Massachusetts through New York City, all the way into Washington,

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<v Speaker 2>DC and beyond. So how much longer can this last?

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<v Speaker 2>When will it end? Bloomberg Meteorologist Rob Carolyn is here

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<v Speaker 2>with us Live to help answer some of those questions. Rob,

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<v Speaker 2>you know it's bad when the sky's orange during the day.

0:11:54.240 --> 0:11:56.559
<v Speaker 2>Is it gonna be as bad in the East.

0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:59.600
<v Speaker 8>Coast as it was yesterday? Well, Nathan, the worst of

0:11:59.640 --> 0:12:01.680
<v Speaker 8>it yes was in the Tri State area. That's where

0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:04.439
<v Speaker 8>we saw those visibilities under two miles in very heavy smoke,

0:12:04.480 --> 0:12:07.320
<v Speaker 8>and the visibility is pour this morning around southern New York.

0:12:07.400 --> 0:12:10.120
<v Speaker 8>I'm looking at visibilities right now under two miles from

0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:12.720
<v Speaker 8>the Hudson River Valley across Long Island and into the city.

0:12:12.800 --> 0:12:15.439
<v Speaker 8>So it gets a little bit better as the day

0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:17.200
<v Speaker 8>goes on in New York. Some of the smoke's going

0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:19.440
<v Speaker 8>to disperse, but it's certainly going to be hazy much

0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:21.600
<v Speaker 8>of the Boston area yesterday missed out on it. We

0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:24.360
<v Speaker 8>had visibilities in ten miles. There was some smoke, but

0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:26.400
<v Speaker 8>certainly nothing like what we saw in New York City.

0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:28.000
<v Speaker 8>We did have quite a bit of haze in the

0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:31.480
<v Speaker 8>district in Baltimore that continues today. The big problem is

0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:34.040
<v Speaker 8>we are stuck in a stagnant weather pattern. Low pressure

0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:37.400
<v Speaker 8>is stalled over eastern New England and eastern Canada. That's

0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:40.360
<v Speaker 8>what's pulling all of this smoke out of Quebec and Ontario,

0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:43.760
<v Speaker 8>and it will continue to do so today, tomorrow and

0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:46.320
<v Speaker 8>into Saturday. It looks like a system coming out of

0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:48.320
<v Speaker 8>the western United States is going to help kick this

0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:50.680
<v Speaker 8>low out and weaken it. So we'll start to see

0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:53.880
<v Speaker 8>gradual improvement by Sunday in the air quality across the

0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:57.080
<v Speaker 8>northeast Ohio River Valley in mid Atlantic region. It definitely

0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:59.360
<v Speaker 8>gets better into next week as the weather pattern starts

0:12:59.400 --> 0:12:59.959
<v Speaker 8>to change.

0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:03.679
<v Speaker 2>Is a stalled weather pattern like this unusual, rob I mean,

0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:07.000
<v Speaker 2>when you see scenes like this, the words climate change

0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:10.000
<v Speaker 2>immediately come to mind. Is that something that's on your radar?

0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:12.719
<v Speaker 8>Well, we've been in a very blocky pattern so far

0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:15.360
<v Speaker 8>the spring. Nathan just a week ago we were sitting

0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:18.000
<v Speaker 8>underneath high pressure and we had sunshine for eight days

0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:21.360
<v Speaker 8>over the northeastern United States. It's not unusual to see

0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:23.679
<v Speaker 8>the blocks develop in the spring and continue into the

0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:26.760
<v Speaker 8>early summer. What seems to be driving this block is

0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:29.480
<v Speaker 8>the fact that we've got the Greenland ice sheet melting

0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:32.360
<v Speaker 8>more than normal that has been forming a cold pool

0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:35.800
<v Speaker 8>of water south of Greenland. Right now, that cold pool

0:13:35.800 --> 0:13:37.800
<v Speaker 8>of water is closer to the East coast than it's

0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:40.080
<v Speaker 8>been the last couple of springs and summers, and that's

0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:43.240
<v Speaker 8>what's been leading to this persistent pattern of upper level

0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:46.960
<v Speaker 8>low pressure system developing over the Northeastern United States at

0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:49.160
<v Speaker 8>times through the spring and early summer. So that could

0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:51.880
<v Speaker 8>be attributed to the changes that we're seeing with the

0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:53.319
<v Speaker 8>climate in the northern hemisphere.

0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:56.120
<v Speaker 2>Just thirty seconds left, Rob, your advice for people how

0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:57.720
<v Speaker 2>to deal with this smoke for this week?

0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:00.040
<v Speaker 8>Well, the smoke yesterday in New York was on the

0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:02.760
<v Speaker 8>president since the like the seventeen eighties, you'd have to

0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:05.560
<v Speaker 8>go back that far into the climate pass to come

0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:08.480
<v Speaker 8>up with something like this. I would say people with

0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:11.040
<v Speaker 8>respiratory's distress stay inside. Those folks who have to go

0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:13.160
<v Speaker 8>out and ninety five. Mass are probably a good idea

0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:15.800
<v Speaker 8>in the Tristate area. You should be okay in Boston

0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:18.640
<v Speaker 8>and VC today. Just don't do anything strenuous, especially if

0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:20.400
<v Speaker 8>you suffer from respiratory distress.

0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:23.960
<v Speaker 2>Really appreciate this, Rob. Thank you, Bloomberg Meteorologist Rob Carolyn.

0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:26.160
<v Speaker 2>We're going to be checking back with you throughout the

0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:29.120
<v Speaker 2>morning here on Bloomberg Daybreak. But we want to turn

0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:32.320
<v Speaker 2>now from apocalyptic weather to the outlook from one of

0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:35.760
<v Speaker 2>Wall Street's biggest banks. The United States has to be

0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:38.520
<v Speaker 2>a beacon of stability and strength in the world. That's

0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:42.119
<v Speaker 2>the word from Bank of America CEO and Chairman Brian moynihan.

0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:44.880
<v Speaker 2>He's talking about the US economy in the wake of

0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:47.480
<v Speaker 2>a drawn out debt ceiling battle and where he sees

0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:50.760
<v Speaker 2>things going from here. One Hand sat down for a

0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:53.800
<v Speaker 2>wide ranging interview with David weston Man at the Bloomberg

0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:56.400
<v Speaker 2>invest Conference in New York. Let's listen to part of

0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:57.160
<v Speaker 2>that conversation.

0:14:57.320 --> 0:14:59.720
<v Speaker 12>Now, YEO, when I ask people, is this disruptive? And

0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:02.720
<v Speaker 12>not all the experts tell me yes and no and yes.

0:15:02.800 --> 0:15:04.440
<v Speaker 12>In the hand there's a lot of issuance, But no,

0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:06.840
<v Speaker 12>everybody knew it was coming and so it may move

0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:10.240
<v Speaker 12>sort of trading markets around, but fundamentally, the idea of

0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:13.560
<v Speaker 12>the government was gonna run out of money was not

0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:15.720
<v Speaker 12>something people were planning on. So we'll see.

0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:17.800
<v Speaker 18>Does it put any kind of a crip in your

0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:20.360
<v Speaker 18>ability to lend? I mean money has to come from somewhere.

0:15:20.800 --> 0:15:22.400
<v Speaker 12>Well, there's a lot of money sitting at the FED,

0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:24.400
<v Speaker 12>and you have a night repo facility and money funds

0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:26.560
<v Speaker 12>has just been put back, and so the dynamics of

0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:28.560
<v Speaker 12>how this all moves around is interesting. I don't think

0:15:29.680 --> 0:15:31.360
<v Speaker 12>in the worry b it took deposits out of the

0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:35.480
<v Speaker 12>banking system, but you know, there's I'm not sure people

0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:36.840
<v Speaker 12>see that as a big issue. And by the way,

0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:39.560
<v Speaker 12>the Treasury secretary, I think they said today they will

0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:42.760
<v Speaker 12>do this on a non disruptive basis, because they don't.

0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:44.640
<v Speaker 12>They just ran down to thirty nine billion. We're still

0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:46.200
<v Speaker 12>able to pay the bills, so they don't need to

0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:47.880
<v Speaker 12>get there tomorrow, and they'll build it up over time,

0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:49.400
<v Speaker 12>but their goal is to get back in a more

0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:53.040
<v Speaker 12>regular way. The best news about this whole dialogue is

0:15:53.240 --> 0:15:55.800
<v Speaker 12>they've got an agreement that extends a period of time,

0:15:55.880 --> 0:15:58.080
<v Speaker 12>so we shouldn't have to deal with this for a while,

0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:00.280
<v Speaker 12>which is really critical because the United States has to

0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:02.720
<v Speaker 12>be the beacon of stability strength in the world. And

0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:05.360
<v Speaker 12>at times when this discussion is going on and you

0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:08.920
<v Speaker 12>travel the world, everybody gets fixated on it because United

0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:11.760
<v Speaker 12>States is the benchmark of benchmarks, and if it goes

0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:14.600
<v Speaker 12>completely somehow accidentally, it's a real problem. And so they

0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:17.600
<v Speaker 12>get all fixated all this sort of activity in the

0:16:17.680 --> 0:16:19.920
<v Speaker 12>planning for it. What would happen in all our company?

0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:22.320
<v Speaker 12>It just it would just be better if it didn't

0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:24.000
<v Speaker 12>go on. But it's a political process, and.

0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:26.600
<v Speaker 18>There are reports and I don't think it's unexpected anybody

0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:29.520
<v Speaker 18>that there's going to be increase in capital requirements. If

0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:32.040
<v Speaker 18>that goes forward, will it have any effect on your

0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:33.040
<v Speaker 18>ability to make loans?

0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:37.320
<v Speaker 12>There are multiple discussions which could get sort of pushed together.

0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:42.360
<v Speaker 12>There's the standards for the final finalization of BASEL, which

0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:45.000
<v Speaker 12>is this broad set of things that's going on. This

0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:47.440
<v Speaker 12>stress test is going on that we forget about if

0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:50.280
<v Speaker 12>that's going on also, and that result in some surprises

0:16:50.320 --> 0:16:53.280
<v Speaker 12>the industry in terms of capital demands last year. And

0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:58.200
<v Speaker 12>then and then there's the question of applying standards that

0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:00.880
<v Speaker 12>applied to the g said banks the biggest bank broader

0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:03.080
<v Speaker 12>in the platform because the size of some of the banks,

0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:05.120
<v Speaker 12>and so all three of those things get mixed together

0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:06.760
<v Speaker 12>a little bit. But you know, at the end of

0:17:06.800 --> 0:17:09.919
<v Speaker 12>the day, it's a fairly straightforward. If our capital ratios

0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:13.280
<v Speaker 12>go up by one hundred basis points, we basically, you know,

0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:17.440
<v Speaker 12>simply put, you can't make about one hundred fifty million

0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:21.359
<v Speaker 12>dollars a loans. And because people say, well, you have

0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:23.080
<v Speaker 12>more capital, make more loans. But if we took risk

0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:25.040
<v Speaker 12>on that capital, we wouldn't have that capital ratio. So

0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:27.720
<v Speaker 12>it has to be a riskless build. A capital can't

0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:29.520
<v Speaker 12>be out there taking risk. It's the only thing you

0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:31.919
<v Speaker 12>really do is leave in the cash or buy treasury securities.

0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:36.040
<v Speaker 12>And that's not a very productive use of money. So

0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:39.960
<v Speaker 12>and if you had it, and that's the problem. And

0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:41.960
<v Speaker 12>so every time capital goes up, there's a there's a

0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:42.960
<v Speaker 12>countervailing effective.

0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:43.919
<v Speaker 8>It impacts lending.

0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:46.600
<v Speaker 18>So I see, actually a survey was done in this

0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:49.440
<v Speaker 18>room of the likeli overcession in Q one of twenty

0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:51.000
<v Speaker 18>th eighty four, and it looks like, what is that

0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:53.359
<v Speaker 18>sixty five percent of the people agree with your research.

0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:56.200
<v Speaker 18>Isn't that good to know you've got kind of ratification there.

0:17:56.480 --> 0:17:59.280
<v Speaker 12>One thing we always careful if somebody educated me once

0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:02.159
<v Speaker 12>that the four action recession by economists is always like

0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:04.879
<v Speaker 12>fifteen or twenty percent, so and above that means that

0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:05.520
<v Speaker 12>they're convinced.

0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:08.679
<v Speaker 18>So when we talk about costs, what about headcount? I

0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:10.240
<v Speaker 18>know you said that it's not so much you're laying

0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:12.440
<v Speaker 18>officer's not hiring as many as you were a year ago.

0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:15.080
<v Speaker 12>This goes back to economic who and I even talk

0:18:15.160 --> 0:18:18.520
<v Speaker 12>to customers. So last May we hired thirty three thousand people.

0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:21.040
<v Speaker 12>Excuse me, this May we hired you know, six seven hundred.

0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:23.640
<v Speaker 12>And that's all because the turnover rate fell because last

0:18:23.680 --> 0:18:25.560
<v Speaker 12>year were in the middle of great recognation and now

0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:29.159
<v Speaker 12>it's completely different. So we went from twelve percent turnover

0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:30.880
<v Speaker 12>in the company, which is sort of the long term

0:18:30.920 --> 0:18:33.360
<v Speaker 12>level we're at pre pandemic, down to six, up to fifteen,

0:18:33.400 --> 0:18:35.919
<v Speaker 12>and now back down getting close to six. So we

0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:37.480
<v Speaker 12>don't have to hire as many people, yet we keep

0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:38.520
<v Speaker 12>managed to head count down.

0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:40.439
<v Speaker 18>More broadly, do you think the job marker is a

0:18:40.440 --> 0:18:42.080
<v Speaker 18>bit softer than what the FED realizes.

0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:45.199
<v Speaker 12>I think if you talk to employers today in a

0:18:45.240 --> 0:18:49.800
<v Speaker 12>technology spaces there's always specialized things like welders in certain

0:18:49.840 --> 0:18:54.159
<v Speaker 12>businesses and high and manufacturing help explosion that was just

0:18:54.200 --> 0:18:58.879
<v Speaker 12>having been out there. But in general it's much less

0:18:59.080 --> 0:19:01.479
<v Speaker 12>tight than it was in the spot market and that's

0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:03.719
<v Speaker 12>why the curt rates going down. All that stuff. You

0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:05.720
<v Speaker 12>see it in the amount of hires and you know,

0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:09.360
<v Speaker 12>so job postings are still high. I'm not sure CEOs

0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:11.360
<v Speaker 12>that I talked to are pushing people to fill those

0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:13.440
<v Speaker 12>as much as film when you have to, and that

0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:17.120
<v Speaker 12>has a dampening effect on the labor market that won't

0:19:17.119 --> 0:19:20.440
<v Speaker 12>show up any agorams. Employment still at you know, three

0:19:20.480 --> 0:19:22.959
<v Speaker 12>point seven percent of employment is still very strong. And

0:19:23.000 --> 0:19:26.160
<v Speaker 12>so the big debate when if you want to drive

0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:27.639
<v Speaker 12>your econ is crazy, say how can you have an

0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:30.920
<v Speaker 12>unemployment list recession? And you know, they can't quite get there,

0:19:30.920 --> 0:19:32.920
<v Speaker 12>and that's kind of the interesting question. And so even

0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:37.399
<v Speaker 12>the highest predictors of unemployment don't even get the five percent,

0:19:37.560 --> 0:19:39.320
<v Speaker 12>which is hard to square.

0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:43.600
<v Speaker 6>This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on

0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:47.359
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<v Speaker 14>And I'm Karen Moscow.

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<v Speaker 1>Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you

0:20:30.480 --> 0:20:33.680
<v Speaker 1>need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak