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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It's good to the whims without further ado.

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Speaker 3: That's what the game's all about.

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Speaker 2: All of a sudden, you feel like you can't miss.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna leave it up.

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Speaker 2: If you tried that again, absolutely, Welcome to the Action

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Speaker 2: Network Podcast Wednesday NBA edition. I'm your host Matt Moore.

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Speaker 2: Joining is always by Raheem Palmer and Brandon Anderson. We're

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Speaker 2: gonna be going through some second half prop for this week.

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Speaker 2: That's our big show this week as we get sack

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Speaker 2: for the second half of the NBA season. As a reminder,

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Speaker 2: all of our odds are provided by bet MGM, except

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Speaker 2: for the ones that Brandon is gonna make up because

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Speaker 2: he's just a smart little bunny.

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Speaker 3: Well.

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Speaker 2: Also lets you know about the other shows on the

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Speaker 2: Action Network Podcast. Make sure to check out the favorite

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Speaker 2: so Simon Hunter and Chad Millman also on the The

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Speaker 2: Action Network Podcast. You're going to have the obviously March

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Speaker 2: Madness is around the corner. You're gonna want to be

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Speaker 2: checking the feed because those guys do an incredible job

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Speaker 2: breaking down everything college basketball. They are the sharpest minds

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Speaker 2: you are gonna hear. Check it out on the Action

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Speaker 2: Network College Basketball podcast on this feed right here. This week,

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Speaker 2: we are going to break down some props that Brandon

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Speaker 2: has come up with. We'll also do our back to

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Speaker 2: the Future segment where we talk about futures that we wish.

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Speaker 2: We had made no picks this week because we're on

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Speaker 2: a Wednesday and there's only two games, and the Thursday

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Speaker 2: lines aren't out yet, so we don't have enough to

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Speaker 2: choose from because well we're still betting on them. I

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Speaker 2: already have the Wizard's money line because I'm gonna degenerate,

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Speaker 2: but in general, we don't have enough to really go through.

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Speaker 2: We'll be back next week with picks. However, this week

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Speaker 2: we'll start with our marquee.

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Speaker 1: The marquee.

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Speaker 2: Look you here the chatter from the crowd. So Brandon's

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Speaker 2: come up with some second half props for us based

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Speaker 2: off of where the league is at and asking us to,

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Speaker 2: you know, put theoretical bets down on the future and

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Speaker 2: what's gonna happen in the second half of the season.

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Speaker 2: Brandon take it away.

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Speaker 4: All right, guys, we're gonna do the mid season pop quiz.

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Speaker 4: We're gonna start out with a couple of playoff seeds here.

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Speaker 4: So first question, over under the two point five seed

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Speaker 4: for the Milwaukee Bucks. And we'll say over in this

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Speaker 4: case means better, So that would be a one or

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Speaker 4: two seed. Under means worse than that. So rahiem over

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Speaker 4: under two and a half seed at Milwaukee.

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Speaker 5: We're gonna go with the over. I mean to me,

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Speaker 5: you know they're gonna get Drew Holliday back. Giannis is like,

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Speaker 5: you know, he's playing incredible. I think they've been you know,

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Speaker 5: the Bucks have been tested some things out, you know, defensively,

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Speaker 5: they're getting rid of the drop coverage, so I think,

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Speaker 5: you know.

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Speaker 3: I think this is a time where they going to run.

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Speaker 3: And then you.

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Speaker 5: Also look at the Sixers in the nets. I mean

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Speaker 5: the Sixers. They can have Embiid and Ben Simmons out

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Speaker 5: with COVID nineteen protocols. The Sixers still don't impress me yet.

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Speaker 5: I mean, you know, they're just nine and seven against

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Speaker 5: teams five hundred and above.

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Speaker 3: The Jazz was one of their first wins against you know,

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Speaker 3: a good team.

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Speaker 5: They've been beating up on bad competition, so I think

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Speaker 5: they I think the Bucks eventually passed the Sixers.

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Speaker 2: I do, all right, I'll take the under. I'll go

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Speaker 2: further out because I think, like, look, the Sixers are,

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Speaker 2: They've been a more consistent team. Their win profile is better.

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Speaker 2: The Bucks have had trouble with facing teams above five hundred. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: if you really look at it, the the majority of

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Speaker 2: who the Bucks are going to face in the second

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Speaker 2: half of the season, They're gonna face a lot of

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Speaker 2: good teams because the NBA loads up on that second

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Speaker 2: half schedule as far as the national TV game, so

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Speaker 2: they're gonna have to face a lot of good teams,

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Speaker 2: and they haven't been great in that spot. The Sixers

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Speaker 2: have been consistent. The Sixers have just knocked off consistent wins.

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Speaker 2: I think this dip that we saw from them was

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Speaker 2: a little bit of smoking mirrors. I expect the Nets

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Speaker 2: to get better. They had Blake Griffin during the All

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Speaker 2: Star break, and everybody's like, yeah, but Blake Griffin's wash.

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Speaker 2: How surprised are you going to be? Really if Blake

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Speaker 2: shows up and it's like, oh wow, Blake's back. He

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Speaker 2: was in Detroit, and I like Detroit. I do, but

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Speaker 2: most some people don't prefer the beauty, full sights and

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Speaker 2: sounds of Detroit, Michigan.

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Speaker 3: Hello Detroit.

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Speaker 2: I expect him to be a little bit rejuvenated. Plus,

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Speaker 2: league people still believe that Andre Drummond winds up with them.

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Speaker 2: The Lakers are on the list, but the expectation from

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Speaker 2: people around the league is that Drummon's gonna wind up

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Speaker 2: a Net as well. And even if you're not high

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Speaker 2: on Andre drummonds impact, just having another big, they can

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Speaker 2: finish at the rim, they can block shots. It just helps.

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Speaker 2: So I think the Nets are gonna get better as

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Speaker 2: the season goes on, not worse. So I'll take the

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Speaker 2: under and think that they're gonna the Bucks are gonna

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Speaker 2: finish three or higher in the Eastern Conference. Randon, what

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Speaker 2: do you think?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I'm leaning over on this one. Milwaukee

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Speaker 4: is the steadiest of those three teams at the top.

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Speaker 4: They've already had their injury and Drew Holiday, where Brooklyn

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Speaker 4: and Philly both have guys that tend to get injured,

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Speaker 4: and I don't know how it's going to hold up

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Speaker 4: the rest of this season, and they're certainly gonna want

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Speaker 4: guys healthy for the playoffs. So I just think Milwaukee

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Speaker 4: is safe and reliable. I think they're gonna hold steady.

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Speaker 4: I don't know that they'll be the one set again,

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Speaker 4: but I feel pretty good about getting a top two

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Speaker 4: seed for them all right, Next up, same question, Denver

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Speaker 4: Nuggets over under four point five seed out last Matt,

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Speaker 4: Let's start with you.

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Speaker 2: Oh Man. Put me on the spot here because I

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Speaker 2: said there was no way they were gonna get get

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Speaker 2: a top four seed like two weeks ago, and then

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Speaker 2: they rattle off a big win streak going into that

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Speaker 2: West the East Coast road trip. So I'm gonna go over.

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Speaker 2: I think they wind up sneaking in. Nope, I'm changing

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Speaker 2: my mind. I'm going under. I'm going under. They're not

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Speaker 2: gonna make it look the Jazz aren't slipping like they're

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Speaker 2: they're too far up. I think the Jazz slipped, but

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Speaker 2: I don't think that they fall all the way to five.

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Speaker 2: The Lakers are gonna get a d backed and then

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Speaker 2: they're gonna rattle off a win streak and they're gonna

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Speaker 2: be fine. The Clippers are gonna keep chugging along. They're

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Speaker 2: gonna be fine. So basically what I'm saying is, I'm

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Speaker 2: basically saying it Nuggets, Blazers and Suns, and I just

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Speaker 2: think the Sun has been a better team this year,

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Speaker 2: like the Sun's win profile is really good. The Sun's

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Speaker 2: been more consistent. The Suns don't have as many injury

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Speaker 2: concerns as the Nuggets do. Like Paul Milton, like they're

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Speaker 2: supposed to get Gary Harris, Paul Millsap, Michael Green back

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Speaker 2: after the All Star break. There's an expectation that at

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Speaker 2: least most of those guys will be back. Problem is,

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Speaker 2: Denver has done this last two years where they've been

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Speaker 2: injured and rattle off a bunch of wins. They go

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Speaker 2: in the All Star break and it's like, hey, the

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Speaker 2: Nuggets are playing well, and after the All Star break

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Speaker 2: they get everybody back healthy, and then they play worse

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Speaker 2: when everybody's healthy. It's just a weird thing with Denver. Again,

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Speaker 2: I always think that whenever Denver is in a good spot,

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Speaker 2: that's when you fade them. So they're in a good spot,

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna fade them. I will say under four

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Speaker 2: and a half and say that they're gonna finish with

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Speaker 2: a fifth or worse seed in the Western Conference.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm going under as well. I just think the

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Speaker 5: teams in front of them are playing too well. You

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Speaker 5: got the Jazz, Suns, Lakers, and Clippers. I think you

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Speaker 5: know Lakers are gonna get Ad back, the Bryan's going

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Speaker 5: to try to make his MVP push. The Clippers, I mean,

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Speaker 5: they've already been playing well, but they're really gonna get rolling.

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Speaker 5: I think the Suns, to me, they're just a solid

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Speaker 5: regular season team. I think the Nuggets are one of

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Speaker 5: those teams that I'm going to be looking to play

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Speaker 5: in a playoff because they're going to be a underdog

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Speaker 5: and maybe they'll come in as the fifth of sixty

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Speaker 5: underdog against somebody, and if they played a Jazz in

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Speaker 5: the second round, I'll probably be all over the Nuggets.

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Speaker 3: So I'm going with the under.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that I would lean slightly over here.

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Speaker 4: But I think the key with Denver is they're just

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Speaker 4: gonna want to sit in that four or five seed slot,

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Speaker 4: and I don't think they're going to really care which

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Speaker 4: one they get because if they're fighting with Phoenix there,

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Speaker 4: that means that LA is probably two and three and

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Speaker 4: they're happy right where they're at.

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Speaker 3: And at that point, the under may.

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Speaker 4: Be the better bet because who really cares about home

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Speaker 4: court this year? But I think they're happy in that

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Speaker 4: four or five slot.

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Speaker 2: I'll say this, if the Nuggets are the are in

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Speaker 2: the five spot and the Lakers are in the four,

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Speaker 2: they'll tank down and get six.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I agree with that. All right.

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Speaker 4: Next question more playoff wins, not serious, just straight up

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Speaker 4: number of wins. The Utah Jazz or the Philadelphia seventy

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Speaker 4: six Ers. Let's start with their Philly guy, Rahim, I gotta.

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Speaker 5: Go with the Sixers just because they're in the East.

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Speaker 5: I just I think the Jazz have a tougher role.

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Speaker 5: I'll keep it short, and that's pretty much what it is.

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Speaker 2: This is a really good one that you didn't have

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Speaker 2: on your sheet. Sorry, no, it's all right. It's a

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Speaker 2: really good one. I'm glad you asked it. It's making

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Speaker 2: me think I will say, I'll go sixers. I'll go sixers. Look,

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Speaker 2: because I think we feel pretty good that they're the

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Speaker 2: top three teams in the East, and then there's kind

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Speaker 2: of like everybody else right, like we're That's kind of

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Speaker 2: where we're at, is that there's the three top teams

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Speaker 2: in the Eastern Conference and then there's the rest, and

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Speaker 2: so there's no real risk of the Sixers being upset

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Speaker 2: in the first round. Okay, there's I think a slight

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Speaker 2: chance of the Jazz being upset in the first round,

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Speaker 2: like a little, tiny, little little nugget of concern for

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Speaker 2: the Jazz being knocked out in the first round and

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Speaker 2: then the second round, Like, look at the teams that

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Speaker 2: Utah is gonna have to face. Utah is facing one

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Speaker 2: of the Clippers, the Suns, the Lakers, the Nuggets, or

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Speaker 2: the Blazers. Those teams are just way better than anybody

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Speaker 2: that the Sixers are likely to face in the second round,

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Speaker 2: even if it's even if they get they slide to

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Speaker 2: two and they get the Bucks, or they slide to

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Speaker 2: three and have to face the Nets. Like, I don't

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Speaker 2: think there's a I think there's a pretty good chance

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Speaker 2: the Sixers get the one seed and that they face

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Speaker 2: the winner of the four or five in the East,

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Speaker 2: which come on, come on, So I'll say Sixers. And

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of Jazz slander being thrown on this podcast,

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Speaker 2: and I'm okay with that, but I just want to

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Speaker 2: say that, like I recognize how good the like this is,

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Speaker 2: but this is where I think what Raheem said, I

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Speaker 2: think we're in the same place, which is, hey, great

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Speaker 2: job by the Jazz. They're really good. We cannot wait

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Speaker 2: to bet against them. In the playoffs, like, that's where

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Speaker 2: we're are we are is that where.

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Speaker 3: We're at, Rahem, That's exactly where we're at.

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Speaker 5: I just think, I mean, I just think they have

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Speaker 5: they just have the They're gonna face teams that just

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Speaker 5: have guys who can dominate them. If they face the Clippers,

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Speaker 5: they can't handle their wings. If they face Jokic, Jokic

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Speaker 5: is gonna go off. If they face the Lakers, they

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Speaker 5: gotta deal with Athony Davis and Lebron James. It's just

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Speaker 5: too They just have too much against them. And I

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Speaker 5: think the Sixers, they're one of the best teams in

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Speaker 5: the East.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'm going.

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Speaker 4: The opposite direction on this one, and only slightly. I

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Speaker 4: actually think I feel more confident in Utah's playoff outcome

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Speaker 4: as being like a tough second round out, Like they

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Speaker 4: lose them six in the second round, they're gonna push

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Speaker 4: someone hard, They're gonna.

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Speaker 3: Fight all the way.

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Speaker 4: They're probably not gonna have a big ceiling beyond that.

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Speaker 4: But I don't think that I see much potential of

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Speaker 4: the upset. Philadelphia feels more volatile to me. I see

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Speaker 4: them getting upset in the first round as a two

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Speaker 4: or three seed depending on we don't know where like

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Speaker 4: Boston or Toronto or Miami might end up. Those teams

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Speaker 4: could push them. Philadelphia is also a team to me

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Speaker 4: that in the wrong matchup, I could see them losing

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Speaker 4: in four or five, just because it just doesn't work

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Speaker 4: for them and they don't have an adjustment, and so

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Speaker 4: I think that I'll lean Utah.

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Speaker 3: I don't love either of these teams.

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Speaker 4: I'm ready to bet against both of them in the playoffs,

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Speaker 4: but I'll take Utah.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 4: Next question, a little fun here over under one point

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Speaker 4: five five New York Knickerbocker postseason wins. So we're counting

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Speaker 4: playing games here one point five postseason wins. Rahiem, what

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Speaker 4: do you think over under?

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Speaker 3: I'm going under and I'm going big on it.

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Speaker 5: One of the Yeah, the Knicks are one of the

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Speaker 5: teams that I'm looking to fade over the second half

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Speaker 5: of a year. I mean, when you look at their

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Speaker 5: schedule they have they have the seventh toughest schedule in

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Speaker 5: the league coming coming back from the break. Coming out

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Speaker 5: of the break, they face the Bucks, Thunder, Net Sixers,

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Speaker 5: Magic Sixers again, Willards twice Bucks and in the heat,

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Speaker 5: that's a that's the stretch that can almost knock them

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Speaker 5: out of the playoffs. And then when you look at

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Speaker 5: the Knicks, your opponents are only shooting thirty thirty two

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Speaker 5: and a half percent on open threes, despite the fact

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Speaker 5: that the Knicks give up the fifth highest frequency of

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Speaker 5: three point field goal to attempts at thirty nine percent.

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Speaker 3: So that's gonna regress.

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Speaker 5: And I think the Knicks are going to be looking

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Speaker 5: at a play in spot rather than the playoff spot.

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Speaker 3: So I'm fading them.

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Speaker 2: That was so in fact that I'm going to go

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Speaker 2: the other way. But but I have to agree with

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Speaker 2: you under their biggest reason is this, I'm actually not

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Speaker 2: gonna be looking to faith them over a second half

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Speaker 2: of the season. I think they'll they'll push through the

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Speaker 2: regular season just fine. I think even if they slide

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Speaker 2: to the playing game, that's still a pretty good outcome

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Speaker 2: for them. For me, it's just about the playoffs. Tibbs teams.

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Speaker 2: The big advans that TIBs teams have as they play hard,

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Speaker 2: they play really hard, but they do not have another gear.

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Speaker 2: That's been their problem in all of the playoff series

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Speaker 2: that we've seen tis in is they play great in

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Speaker 2: the regular season and they do not have another gear

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Speaker 2: that they can get to that's as hard as they play,

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Speaker 2: and they can't go any higher. Like there's no higher

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Speaker 2: ceiling for this next team than what they've played night tonight.

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Speaker 2: That's it, Like, who are.

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Speaker 3: You looking at?

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Speaker 2: Being like that guy can take his game to another level.

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Speaker 2: Julius Randall can't play.

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Speaker 3: Better than this.

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Speaker 1: Julius Randall, I love the guy.

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Speaker 2: I've loved the guy since college. Can't play better than this.

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Speaker 2: R J. Barrett can't play better than this manual quickly

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Speaker 2: can't play better than this, Like there's no guy on

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Speaker 2: that roster that you're just like he can get it

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Speaker 2: to another level in the playoffs, like there's no there's

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Speaker 2: that guy doesn't exist, And so I think I have

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Speaker 2: to go under here. I think if he winds up

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Speaker 2: in a play in game, it's gonna be like even

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Speaker 2: if they make it out of the play in right

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Speaker 2: then I can't see them taking a game off of

333
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Speaker 2: either of the top two seeds in the in the

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Speaker 2: in the East, I can't. I can't see it. So

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Speaker 2: I'll take the under as sad as I am because

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Speaker 2: I do like the Knicks this year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm under.

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Speaker 4: Also, I think that New York's best chance to go

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00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,600
Speaker 4: over here would be to be the nine or ten

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Speaker 4: seed and win two play in games, then to make

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Speaker 4: it into the playoffs before they get absolutely.

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Speaker 3: Trounced by someone. So I could see that.

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Speaker 4: But even there, I think they maybe get one awesome win,

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Speaker 4: everyone gets excited, and then they lose by like twenty

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Speaker 4: in the next game.

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Speaker 3: So I'm under.

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Speaker 4: Also, all right, we've been talking divisions all season, the

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Speaker 4: Southwest and the Southeast because everyone knows the names of

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Speaker 4: these divisions, but that's the one where Miami and Dallas

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Speaker 4: have been.

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Speaker 3: The favorites are still the favorites.

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Speaker 4: So next question, will Miami, Miami and Dallas both win

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Speaker 4: the division plus one fifty or any other result than

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Speaker 4: both of those teams winning the division minus won seventy five?

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Speaker 3: Matt, what do you think? I mean?

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Speaker 2: I'm this is I gotta to lay the one seventy

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Speaker 2: five here. Look, neither of these teams are leading right

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Speaker 2: now as far as I can tell. Miami's in the

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00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:31,840
Speaker 2: league just barely. They're up by a half a game

360
00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:37,080
Speaker 2: over Charlotte for the Southeast Division. You know, there's a

361
00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,440
Speaker 2: lot of indications the Heat were seven and three before

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Speaker 2: the All Star breaks. It looks at they're riding the

363
00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,480
Speaker 2: ship and starting to get together, and maybe that's that's fine.

364
00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,240
Speaker 2: They're not the team they were last year. They're definitely

365
00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:48,520
Speaker 2: not the team they were in the bubble, because it

366
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Speaker 2: turns out the Goran Drags can't play like Chris Paul

367
00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 2: for you know, more than a three week span, but

368
00:16:56,240 --> 00:17:02,080
Speaker 2: like Dallas. Like Dallas is eight Heat in sixteen. San

369
00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:06,400
Speaker 2: Antonio is eighteen and fourteen. The Grizzlies are sixteen and sixteen.

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00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:09,760
Speaker 2: Everyone else is live, like everyone else is live, and

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00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,200
Speaker 2: Charlotte's live. As much as I don't think Charlotte's good,

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Speaker 2: Charlotte's locked with this division, which is insane to me.

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Speaker 2: I also think the Hawks, and they get DeAndre hunterback,

374
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Speaker 2: I think they can rattle off a bunch of wins

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Speaker 2: like there's too many outcomes that are reasonable to mess

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Speaker 2: up both of these. So I will lay the one

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Speaker 2: seventy five.

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00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,800
Speaker 5: I'm gonna I'm gonna take the plus one fifty when

379
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:35,160
Speaker 5: I look at the Yeah, I'm gonna take the because

380
00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:38,280
Speaker 5: when I look at the Heat, these are two teams,

381
00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:40,320
Speaker 5: both the Heat and the and the Massage.

382
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Speaker 3: There are two teams that got estimated by COVID.

383
00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,200
Speaker 5: They both had slow starts coming out of the bubble,

384
00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:48,200
Speaker 5: and they're both slowly starting to put it together.

385
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Speaker 3: I think one of the things that Heat have been unlucky.

386
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Speaker 5: To me when you look at all their three point shooters,

387
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:57,680
Speaker 5: Tyler Harroll, who's going from thirty eight percent to thirty

388
00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,159
Speaker 5: five percent, Duncan Robinson's going from forty four and a

389
00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,360
Speaker 5: half percent to thirty nine percent, Kelly Olennock has gone

390
00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:06,440
Speaker 5: from forty percent to thirty one percent. Jimmy Butler's gone

391
00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,000
Speaker 5: from twenty four percent to twenty one percent. You're adding

392
00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:13,720
Speaker 5: COVID absences and the injuries the Butler, Hero Drogic and

393
00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:16,119
Speaker 5: Bruce and Bradley, and you got a team that's just

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Speaker 5: struggling to find his footing.

395
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Speaker 3: And then you know they've also they're twenty ninth a

396
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Speaker 3: turnover percentage.

397
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Speaker 5: I think over the second half of the year, and

398
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Speaker 5: as we saw over the last ten games, which they're

399
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Speaker 5: going seven.

400
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:27,320
Speaker 3: And three, they're starting to get rolling.

401
00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:29,920
Speaker 5: The Mavericks are one of those teams that you know,

402
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:32,840
Speaker 5: they've been disappointing, and a lot of that was Lucas

403
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:36,159
Speaker 5: slow start. You know, you look at the Mavericks or

404
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,200
Speaker 5: the last ten games, they're eight and two and they're

405
00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:41,960
Speaker 5: just a game back. They're one game back, and they

406
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,800
Speaker 5: played the Spurs tonight in a game in which you

407
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Speaker 5: told me the other day, Matt, you said, you like

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00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:51,960
Speaker 5: the Mavericks. So they win this game and they have

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00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:55,679
Speaker 5: the league. So I just think, I mean, we know

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00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:58,360
Speaker 5: that the Mavericks and the Spurs are gonna they're gonna

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Speaker 5: be one and two.

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Speaker 3: For that division.

413
00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:02,480
Speaker 5: And then when I look at the Heat, I think

414
00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:04,600
Speaker 5: the heat or poison to make a run. I think

415
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,920
Speaker 5: the rest of that the division is young. I love

416
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 5: the Hornets. You know, we're a great shooting three point

417
00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:12,680
Speaker 5: shooting teams, but I just think they're the best team

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00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:13,800
Speaker 5: in that division, so I'm gonna take it.

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Speaker 2: I also point out that the Mavericks are four and

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Speaker 2: one in their division play and the Spurs are four

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00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 2: and five. That's a big that's a big advantage for tiebreaker,

422
00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:29,359
Speaker 2: like being up four wins and the four games in

423
00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 2: the lost column and division is a huge deal. The

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00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,960
Speaker 2: Grizzlies are three and five, The Pelicans are four and three.

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00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:37,200
Speaker 2: The Pelicans are kind of interesting, right, like they're six under,

426
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:39,160
Speaker 2: but like I can see them making like a really

427
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,000
Speaker 2: big push at some point.

428
00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,399
Speaker 3: I'm just I'm concerned with the Pelicans defense.

429
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 5: I mean, for the first fifteen games of the year,

430
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:50,880
Speaker 5: they could they could play defense, and they couldn't play offense.

431
00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:53,160
Speaker 5: They speed to pace up. Now they can play offense

432
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 5: and can't play defense. Yeah, right, And what's next?

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00:19:58,240 --> 00:19:59,200
Speaker 3: All right? Next up?

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00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 4: Got most likely East eight seed, that's post plan. So

435
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 4: most likely eight seed Knicks, Hornets, Bulls or Hawks here.

436
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:11,840
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, this is game theory. I gotta think

437
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:12,199
Speaker 2: about here.

438
00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:15,960
Speaker 5: Okay, so I I told you I don't like the

439
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:19,560
Speaker 5: Knicks as much as I you know, I've enjoyed the

440
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 5: Bulls this year. They have a really tough schedule. I mean,

441
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,080
Speaker 5: coming out of break, they have the Sixers, Heat, Raptors. Okay,

442
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 5: see Spurs, Nuggets, Pistons, Jazz, Calves, Spurs, Warriors, Suns, Jazz,

443
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:34,199
Speaker 5: and Nets. When I look at the you know, to me,

444
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 5: the Hawks have a pretty good, you know, easy schedule.

445
00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:41,479
Speaker 5: So I'm actually gonna go with them as much as

446
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:43,680
Speaker 5: I want to take the Hornets because you know, you're

447
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 5: fifth and three point shooting. They have a great offensive,

448
00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 5: the eighth offensive rating over the last two weeks. I

449
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:52,879
Speaker 5: gotta go with the Hawks. I mean, they have an

450
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 5: easy schedule, they got a new coach, they have some

451
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 5: guys coming back from injury. I think it's it's all

452
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 5: setting up for them to make a good run.

453
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 2: So this is complicated because the eighth seed has got

454
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:09,120
Speaker 2: to be the team that loses the first playing game

455
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:15,359
Speaker 2: or wins both of the playing games from nine to ten. Right,

456
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,239
Speaker 2: So if you come in and you're the seven, and

457
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,040
Speaker 2: you lose once but win the second one, then you're

458
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 2: the eighth or you gotta win twice in the playing game,

459
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:26,919
Speaker 2: so you got to factor in like all of that

460
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:28,920
Speaker 2: in the year analysis trying to figure this one out,

461
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 2: which I love because I'm a nerd. I'll say I'm

462
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 2: gonna go with the Bulls. I'm gonna go the Bulls

463
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 2: because I think either the Bulls wind up in the

464
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 2: ninth spot and can win twice, like if it's Hornets

465
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,920
Speaker 2: in the eighth spot at season's end, I think they'll

466
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 2: lose to whoever's in the seventh spot and then I'll

467
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 2: take the Bulls to beat that team, or if the

468
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 2: Bulls are in the eighth spot, I can see them

469
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,639
Speaker 2: losing to like the Hawks or whoever's in the seven

470
00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,399
Speaker 2: and then beating that because there are scenarios with the

471
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,359
Speaker 2: Knicks hold on at the five and one of the

472
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,439
Speaker 2: better teams that we think with the Heat wind up

473
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 2: in that seventh spot and then they like trounce the Bulls,

474
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 2: but then the Bulls beat the two teams below them.

475
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:10,879
Speaker 2: So I will take Chicago because I'm not a hater

476
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 2: like Raheem and Brandon are.

477
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson is a hater.

478
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:18,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, i think I'm on the Hawks on this one

479
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 4: kind of similar to what Raheem said. I just feel

480
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:22,639
Speaker 4: like we got to pick one of these teams to

481
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:26,400
Speaker 4: win essentially a playoff game, and I guess I'm taking Tree,

482
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 4: Young and Capella and hoping that they get healthy. And

483
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 4: I don't love any of these picks. Maybe I'd rather

484
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:34,679
Speaker 4: take the Pacers. Can I play the field? It's my

485
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 4: own question. I'll take the Hawks. Let's go to the last,

486
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 4: same question, most likely eight seeded post play in Blazers, Spurs,

487
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 4: Grizzlies or Mavericks.

488
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 3: Matt, what do you.

489
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:48,160
Speaker 2: Think another really are really good one? So I'll take

490
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:52,640
Speaker 2: the Spurs in the spot. Let's assume the Mavericks because

491
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 2: they were, like we have to hold on to some

492
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 2: priors and they should have been better in preseason. I'm

493
00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 2: still a little EH on them, but let's go ahead

494
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:02,119
Speaker 2: and assume that they go up there. I trust the Warriors.

495
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,200
Speaker 2: I'm not fading the Blazers anymore. I'm just not Look,

496
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 2: there's every reason to think the Blazers are not as

497
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 2: good as a record. I can give you about ten

498
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,439
Speaker 2: thousand reasons why the Blazers are not as good as

499
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 2: a record, but they keep winning games. In large part

500
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:17,919
Speaker 2: I think just to spite me. I think that's that's

501
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,160
Speaker 2: pretty much what their motivation is, is just to make

502
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 2: my life miserable as I have. I do have Blazers

503
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,360
Speaker 2: in the play in at plus one hundred from preseason,

504
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure they're gonna get out of it just

505
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 2: to spite me. So let's get the Blazers out of there. Grizzlies,

506
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 2: I'm not I just don't believe that they're I like

507
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 2: the team a lot. I think that they're really fun.

508
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 2: I don't I expect them to lose in the playans.

509
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 2: I especially don't like Memphis having to win in the

510
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 2: play in tournament. But the Spurs I feel pretty good

511
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 2: about winning in the play in tournament. I think if

512
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,479
Speaker 2: they can get into the play in I think they

513
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 2: can win. I think they probably lose to whoever the

514
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 2: seven seed is, whether it's the Mavericks or the Blazers

515
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 2: or the Warriors. And so then I've got this shot

516
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 2: for the Either the Spurs need to win twice, which

517
00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,199
Speaker 2: I can trust them to do in that kind of environment,

518
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 2: or they need to lose once and win once. I

519
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 2: did the Spurs the best stut there.

520
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,199
Speaker 5: Yeah, I grew a mad on the Spurs. I mean,

521
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,360
Speaker 5: I think that when I look at this, the Grizzlies

522
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 5: were intriguing. They just got Justin will I'm justice Winslow back.

523
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 5: They're gonna be getting Jaron Jackson back at some point,

524
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 5: and I think they still have the pain of, you know,

525
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 5: losing last year and the playoff playing game against the Blazers.

526
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 5: So I kind of wanted to select them, but I

527
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 5: can't go away from the Spurs. I mean, your veteran team,

528
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 5: you know, you got Pop. I'm gonna trust you know,

529
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 5: veteran veteran teams with you know Pop, So I'm going

530
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 5: with them.

531
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,160
Speaker 4: Interesting. The Spurs I think actually be my last pick here.

532
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 4: Really I see them somewhat as the West version of

533
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 4: the Knicks, a Thibodeaux type team with a high floor

534
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,159
Speaker 4: but not really a playoff ceiling.

535
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:50,880
Speaker 3: Like I don't, I don't.

536
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 4: It's tough to say that about Pop, but I don't

537
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 4: know that these players, they're gonna have the worst line

538
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 4: up in whatever matchups they're doing. So so if we're

539
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,199
Speaker 4: picking them to win, we're picking only because of Pop,

540
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,159
Speaker 4: and I'd just rather pick the star talent. So I

541
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 4: think I'm gonna take the MAVs here under the premise

542
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 4: that even if they win the division, they might be

543
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 4: the seven or eight seed. I could totally see them

544
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 4: lose that first game and have to have like Luca

545
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,399
Speaker 4: heroics just to sneak in or something like that. I

546
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 4: don't think they're gonna fall too far out. I think

547
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 4: they're gonna end up somewhere in that range. So I

548
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 4: don't know who here, but I feel like the MAVs

549
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,400
Speaker 4: are going to make the playoffs, but somewhere near the bottom.

550
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 3: So I like them to be the eighth seed here.

551
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 4: All right, next question, We've been doing back to the

552
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 4: futures all season, so we're going kind of a double

553
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,240
Speaker 4: back to the future here, back to.

554
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 2: The future.

555
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 4: If only one of them wins it, who's more likely

556
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 4: to win LaMelo Ball Rookie of the Year or Jordan

557
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 4: Clarkson sixth Man of the Year?

558
00:25:58,200 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 3: Raheem, What do you think I mean?

559
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 5: When you look get odds on bet MGM right now,

560
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,360
Speaker 5: they have LaMelo Ball at minus five hundred and they

561
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 5: have Clarkson at minus three fifty. So the minus five

562
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 5: hundred and this is not removing the veig They give

563
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 5: LaMelo an eighty three chance at winning and Clarkson at

564
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 5: minus three fifty, he has a seventy seven percent chance

565
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 5: of winning. Now, mind you, this isn't removing the viig

566
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 5: It takes a little work to do that. But I'm

567
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 5: gonna trust the market here. I think LaMelo is just

568
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 5: I mean, he's rolling right now since he's taken over

569
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 5: in the starting lineup. He's averaging twenty points, six assists,

570
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,440
Speaker 5: and six rebounds, And I mean the Hornets are rolling

571
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 5: right now, and I.

572
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 3: Think, you know, he's a big part of that.

573
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 5: So as great as Clarkson has been off the bench,

574
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 5: I could see somebody else stealing it from him before

575
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 5: somebody stole it from Mellow.

576
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 3: So that's what I'm going with.

577
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 2: So I bet Justin Fan obi Toppin versus LaMelo ball,

578
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 2: and if neither one wins, then I don't have to

579
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 2: pay him. So I'm gonna say Clarkson is more likely

580
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 2: because I don't want to have to pay Justin Fan

581
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 2: because it physically pays me every time I have to

582
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 2: pay Justin Fan. I also think, look, I actually do

583
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 2: think that's a better one. Second half of the season,

584
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 2: Tyrese Haliburton goes off, Kings make a run that's plausible.

585
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 2: What six man is really going to be able to

586
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 2: grab it? Given the voting habits of the voters, both

587
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,439
Speaker 2: of these are locks. But if we look at like

588
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 2: the voting history, if you score a lot of points

589
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 2: and you come off the bench for a winning team,

590
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 2: you're winning it. Jordan Clarkson scores a lot of points,

591
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 2: comes off the bench for a winning team like this

592
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 2: is this is pretty simple. If the Hornets fade. If

593
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 2: the Hornets fade, which is possible because I don't think

594
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 2: that they're that good, then LaMelo absolutely takes a tumble.

595
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,399
Speaker 2: I think that anybody could really make a run at this.

596
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:49,160
Speaker 2: LaMelo has been good, been good. Hornets are good, fun guy,

597
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 2: fun flashy passes, but LaMelo is not. I don't think

598
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:54,679
Speaker 2: he's been some sort of like transformational player. He's just

599
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 2: been the best of a bad rookie class. There's been

600
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 2: solid players. I like Patrick Williams, like, there's a lot

601
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 2: of guys whose career like long term I like a

602
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 2: lot more than LaMelo's, So I'll take Clarkson on that end.

603
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I gotta go with LaMelo here.

604
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 4: I just have a really hard time coming up with

605
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,639
Speaker 4: anything other than LaMelo winning it. But the only way

606
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 4: I see him losing the Rookie of the Year is

607
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 4: if he ends up hurt and misses a stretch. Halliburton

608
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 4: is the only one that I think is even in

609
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,919
Speaker 4: the mix, and in order for him to steal it, like,

610
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:29,880
Speaker 4: we don't do Rookie of the Year based on oh,

611
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 4: he carried the Kings of the playoffs, which is not

612
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 4: gonna happen anyway.

613
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 2: What if Ant really starts to put together What if

614
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 2: Ants starts shooting like thirty five percent for three?

615
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, wow, big news for my guys.

616
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 4: He's he's literally the worst player in the league right

617
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 4: now by like every advanced metric and I don't know.

618
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 4: I mean, we the Wolves have nothing else, so he's

619
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 4: gonna have to play and put up points that I think,

620
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 4: I'll say it if someone was gonna steal it, I

621
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 4: think he's more likely to steal it than Halliburton, because

622
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 4: you're gonna need someone, you know, like maybe.

623
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 2: We got we got two guys that you're like, they

624
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 2: could steal it. They could. Who's stealing it from Clarkson?

625
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 3: Who's my hot take?

626
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 4: I don't think Jordan Clarkson is the best six man

627
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:14,959
Speaker 4: on his own team.

628
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson is a hater.

629
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 4: I think Joe Ingalls is the more valuable sixth man.

630
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 4: I don't know who steals it. Clarkson's gonna win, LaMelo's

631
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 4: gonna win. I just think LaMelo is more likely to win.

632
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 2: You are just standing for the LaMelo.

633
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 3: Oh man.

634
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 4: All right, let's let's zoom ahead to the finals, because

635
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 4: I want to know, gentlemen, even odds, does the finals

636
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 4: feature at least one of the Nets or Lakers or

637
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 4: any other matchup?

638
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 3: Raheem, what do you think.

639
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 5: I'm going Nets to Lakers. I just I don't see

640
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 5: anybody in the East beating the Nets. I just think

641
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 5: they just have too much firepower and I can't bet

642
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 5: against that. I mean, and then I think one of

643
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 5: the good things about this NETS team is that Harden

644
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 5: he tends to fade in the playoffs because he has

645
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 5: to carry you know, these teams, and he doesn't have

646
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 5: that problem. I mean, him and Durant have only played

647
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 5: eleven games. Durant's gonna come in healthy, Kyrie's you know,

648
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 5: they're they're low managing him. They have all the shooting.

649
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 5: I just don't see any team beating them. So, I

650
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 5: mean the Lakers kind of have a tougher path, but

651
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 5: they're still the favorites. So there's just no way that

652
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 5: we're not gonna have finals with one of these teams.

653
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 2: So all right, I bet preseason on Nets Lakers. I

654
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 2: added at the All Star Break Nets Lakers, so I

655
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 2: have a healthy position there. So I'm going to now

656
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 2: hedge and go the other way, and I'm gonna say Nets.

657
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 2: I'm gonna say Nets Clippers, and I'm actually gonna bet

658
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 2: that probably sometime in the next day or so. I'm

659
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 2: actually gonna put a small position on that because numbers

660
00:30:58,880 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 2: are really good.

661
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 3: I think I think it was. It was feature one

662
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 3: of them.

663
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, Now, for this question, at least one of

664
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 4: the Nets or Lakers is a hit, or any other

665
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 4: matchup the other side, I.

666
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 2: Would still I would still probably go the other way.

667
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 2: And the reason I would say any other matchup is

668
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 2: I think the Clippers can beat the Lakers, and I

669
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 2: think the Sixers can beat the Nets. I also, honestly,

670
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 2: I think the Bucks can beat the Nuts. Like I

671
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 2: know that's gonna drive Rahem nuts because of how much

672
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 2: he likes to fade the Bucks and how much money

673
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 2: he's made off of them. But look, you have to

674
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 2: be you have to be a absolutely like you have

675
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 2: to be a well oiled machine offensively in terms of

676
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 2: your execution with certain guys that can punish you. Like

677
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 2: it was Jay Crowder last year, it was Fred van

678
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 2: Vliet the year before. It wasn't the primary threats because,

679
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 2: like I did the work on this, they cover the

680
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 2: like they're gonna stay on Joe Harris. The Bucks will

681
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 2: stay on Joe Harris. The Bucks are switching more. The

682
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 2: Bucks have rim protection the but like the Bucks have

683
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: and the Bucks have drew Holliday, Chris Middleton and Jannis

684
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 2: to throw it Harden, Durant and Kyrie, like I get,

685
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 2: like they're gonna get theirs. I get it. But if

686
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 2: you're trying to build a wall in transition versus Jannis,

687
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 2: if you're gonna layer your defense, which is what you

688
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 2: have to do to stop Jannis, like you could stop him,

689
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 2: but you gotta layer it, who are the nets layering

690
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 2: against Yannis? Who's who are they building a wall with?

691
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 3: I agree with that.

692
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 5: I think that's a that's a that's a series. I mean,

693
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 5: I think that they played the second game in which

694
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 5: Hearten came back, and I think that'll.

695
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 3: Be indicative of what the series look like.

696
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:54,880
Speaker 5: It'll be a six to seven game series where firepower

697
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 5: is gonna win out.

698
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 2: I'll take any other I'll take any other outcome because

699
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 2: I think there's one team in the West it can

700
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,959
Speaker 2: be the Lakers and that's the Clippers. But I do

701
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 2: think that there's two teams in the East that can

702
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 2: beat the Nets. So I'll take any other outcome.

703
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with all of that logic.

704
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 4: I'm just going to take the Nets or Lakers in

705
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 4: the finals, just based on math really that I just

706
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 4: think by the time that we get there, I think

707
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 4: that we're going to see both of those teams as

708
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 4: somewhat prohibitive favorites.

709
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 3: I think they're going to be clear favorites.

710
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 4: I guess, I'll say, and for both clear favorites not

711
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 4: to get there, I just don't feel like the math

712
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 4: works that way. It's COVID season, so you never know.

713
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 4: Maybe that maybe one team gets upset normally and the

714
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 4: other team has a player missing or something like that.

715
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 4: I can see it. That's why I was even odds here.

716
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 4: But I think I'll take the one of Nets or Lakers,

717
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 4: and probably both, But I guess we'll see once we

718
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 4: get there.

719
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 2: Does it wrap up for our marquee event. Thanks for

720
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 2: Brandon for put up in a moment those great questions

721
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 2: because they were awesome. Before we move on, though, gods

722
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 2: hell you about the Athletic Brewing Company. You know, we

723
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 2: talk a lot of this podcast about edges putting the

724
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 2: work in, finding opportunities and betting on them. And one

725
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:10,879
Speaker 2: easy way to lose your edge is to get absolutely

726
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 2: hammered and start betting games. And that's why we want

727
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 2: to tell you about our friends at the Athletic Brewing Company.

728
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 2: So Athletic Brewing Company was founded by these two guys,

729
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 2: Bill and John who loved crap beer, but they realized

730
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 2: the flavors they loved weren't available and non alcoholic like

731
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Speaker 2: at all. So they started Athletic Brewing and now they've

732
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 2: won awards, expanded the brewery. I mean, these guys are

733
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Speaker 2: killing you. Athletic Brewery sent us beers to drink because

734
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,320
Speaker 2: they're not an alcoholic, they're only fifty to seventy calories apiece,

735
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Speaker 2: and they actually taste great. So if you're looking to

736
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,239
Speaker 2: hammer a second half line without getting hammered yourself, these

737
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Speaker 2: beers are a great option. So if you want to

738
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 2: support the show, head to Athletic Brewing dot com check

739
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740
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Speaker 2: This gets new customers fifteen percent off their first order,

741
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 2: and if you order two or more six packs, shipping

742
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 2: is always free. Athletic use the action code fifteen on

743
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 2: that first order and enjoy the flavor while keeping that

744
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 2: gambling edge. All right, guys, let's move on and we're

745
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 2: gonna I have a new segment for you. I have

746
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,880
Speaker 2: to surprise you because Matt Mitchell surprised me with this.

747
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 2: This one is called thanks for Nothing.

748
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 1: Good teams win and great teams cover put some teams

749
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:24,760
Speaker 1: do neither. This is thanks for nothing.

750
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 2: It's too light, it's too late.

751
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 1: So we really did John.

752
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 2: This is I'm gonna ask you, guys, the team in

753
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 2: the first half of the season that lost and failed

754
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 2: to cover and bothered you the most? What team gave

755
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 2: you the most issues betting on in the first half

756
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:50,919
Speaker 2: of the season that both failed to win and cover

757
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 2: and so thanks for absolutely nothing. And I will go

758
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 2: ahead and tell you mine is the Dallas Mavericks. Thanks

759
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 2: for nothing, MAVs. I put a lot on their win

760
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 2: total at forty one and a half. Last year, I

761
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:07,359
Speaker 2: was like, these guys can't defend worth a damn. They're

762
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 2: not gonna be any good. These guys are gonna be

763
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,360
Speaker 2: This is gonna be a middling team at most. I

764
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:14,399
Speaker 2: don't think they can win thirty nine games. Instead, they

765
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 2: were like the sixteed for half the season and wound

766
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 2: up in the seventh spot. And so this year I'm like, well, okay,

767
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 2: they got better on defense by adding Richardson, Like it's

768
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 2: another year with Luca and KP. Luca was so dominant

769
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 2: last year, so I went on the over this year

770
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 2: and now they're just absolutely falling apart, and game by

771
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 2: game they've been infuriating to bet, with so many spots

772
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:38,399
Speaker 2: where like they just looked like they were absolutely outclassed.

773
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 2: And then notably one time, I was like, oh, this

774
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 2: is a great spot to fade the MAVs. They haven't

775
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 2: looked right. I'm totally betting against them versus the Clippers

776
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:50,320
Speaker 2: and they beat them by fifty Thanks for nothing, MAVs, Rahiem,

777
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 2: what's yours?

778
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with the Indiana Pacers for me to

779
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 5: just easily one of the most disappointing teams all year

780
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 5: to just fourteen and twenty one against the Spray, and

781
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,280
Speaker 5: for whatever reason, the market just seems.

782
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:07,919
Speaker 3: To overvalue them. I don't understand why they were up.

783
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,400
Speaker 3: They were playing the Knicks last week. I think they

784
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 3: were up ninety eight, ninety.

785
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 5: Three, and they only scored twice for the rest of

786
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 5: the game.

787
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:20,720
Speaker 3: This is one of the most frustrating teams.

788
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:25,360
Speaker 5: I thought the addition of the new coach, Nate Gurkin,

789
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:27,879
Speaker 5: I thought he would, you know, change some things up.

790
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 5: But this team is only seventeenth in offensive rating this year.

791
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 5: This team can't score. I thought they were they would

792
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 5: push the pace. I thought they would, you know, shoot

793
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 5: three more. They're not doing that.

794
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 3: So it's just like, honestly, they could have Jarres Laverton TJ.

795
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 2: Warren cut him a break man. Jeris Lavert had cancer.

796
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 5: But I'm just saying they had Oladipo for you know,

797
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 5: half the season at this point.

798
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 2: But they were great there. They were great at the

799
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 2: start of the season when everybody was healthy. You remember,

800
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 2: they were like the story they were playing the best

801
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,360
Speaker 2: basketball in December and early January.

802
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:03,839
Speaker 3: They were.

803
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 2: They were absolutely great, but they had they had to

804
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:10,280
Speaker 2: move depot for a number of reasons, and then I mean, understand,

805
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,480
Speaker 2: but the market is still over valuing this team. So

806
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 2: it's just like a lot of times, it's just you know,

807
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:18,959
Speaker 2: their their favorites every night and they're just not coming through.

808
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 2: They're just they're just easily for me, They've been one

809
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 2: of the most disappointing teams.

810
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 3: I have to stay away from them.

811
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 2: Brandon, what's yours?

812
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 4: So the MAVs are the first team that came to mind,

813
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:34,959
Speaker 4: and Uh, rather than going with the team, I'm gonna

814
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 4: go with my usual props and go with thanks for

815
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 4: nothing entire Cleveland Calves backcourt. Every time Calling Sexton or

816
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,919
Speaker 4: Darius Garland shows up in my props, I swear to god,

817
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 4: someone is leaking that I took them to the players

818
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:56,440
Speaker 4: themselves so they can actively sabotage me. Darius Garland will

819
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:59,400
Speaker 4: put up like seven assists at assists, nine ass at assists,

820
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 4: and then they'll be like, oh, over under five and

821
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 4: a half assists, and I'll be like, oh, we got

822
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 4: easy money here. I'll talk about it, I'll play it up.

823
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:10,399
Speaker 4: It's gotten so bad that one of my buddies, who's

824
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 4: a big Cleveland Cavs fans. I actively warn him now

825
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 4: when I'm betting on one of the Cavs guards, like,

826
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:18,720
Speaker 4: hey man, sorry, your guy's gonna have a bad game tonight.

827
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:22,319
Speaker 3: It's happening. So thanks for nothing, sexcelland.

828
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 2: Oh man, that's that's a great one.

829
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:26,319
Speaker 3: I love that. All right.

830
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 2: That's gonna wrap it up for the Action Network Podcast.

831
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us. Really appreciate you guys hanging on

832
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 2: and joining us on this ride. We're gonna be there

833
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 2: for you all throughout the regular season. A couple of

834
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 2: programming reminders for you. We're gonna start doing Clubhouse on

835
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:44,399
Speaker 2: your app. Get the Clubhouse App. We're gonna be doing

836
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 2: those on Thursdays before the Big Slate, breaking down our bets.

837
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 2: On Friday, I am on the NBA bet Cast on

838
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 2: League Pass on the Bulls game. Sich I got that out.

839
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 2: You can find it on the League Pass option streaming options,

840
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 2: the NBA bet Cast. I'll be on there with the

841
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 2: guys from yall whose Sportsbook Starting next week, Every Wednesday,

842
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 2: you can catch Raheem and I on Heat Check, a

843
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 2: new show that we're doing breaking down the Wednesday slate.

844
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 2: We're gonna give you props. We're gonna give you sidees.

845
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 2: We're gonna give you totals. We're gonna give you all

846
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,240
Speaker 2: the great analysis. We're fitting that in in the window

847
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:18,279
Speaker 2: about two hours, hour and a half before tip. Check

848
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 2: the Action Network handle at Action Network HQ for that.

849
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 2: On Fridays, it's gonna be Chad Millman, Justin Fan and

850
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 2: Preston Johnson, Sports Cheetah, whoever really loves They're gonna be

851
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,280
Speaker 2: doing the Friday slates. Rahema and I are on Wednesdays

852
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:33,840
Speaker 2: with Chris Raybond. We have so much content for you

853
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 2: guys to break down the NBA betting slates. Make sure

854
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 2: to check it out. You got to be following us

855
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 2: at Action Network HQ. Follow Raheem, follow Brandon follow me.

856
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 5: I have a column coming out today on the MVP.

857
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 5: I'm posting my betting model for the most Valuable Player.

858
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 5: There's two There's two different models. There's a linear regression

859
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:56,320
Speaker 5: model and a logistic regression model. One of the models

860
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 5: actually predicts voting share and the other one predicts the

861
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 5: probability of a guy winning.

862
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 3: You guys will be surprised to see who I have first.

863
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 3: So check that out today on the Action Network.

864
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:09,320
Speaker 2: I love it when you talk regression to me, Rahim.

865
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 2: You can also check out my coverage of the trade

866
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 2: deadline that's on there. I have a huge piece coming

867
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 2: out on the Jazz spoiler alerts, not super high on

868
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 2: their chances long term, big surprise there for me. You

869
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:23,839
Speaker 2: can check that out on the Action Network. Check out

870
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 2: Brandon's props article, which is absolutely killing at this season.

871
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 2: And we'll talk to you guys again next time on

872
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,439
Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast NBA Edition.

873
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:40,760
Speaker 6: We're finished talking