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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Thursday, March Madness episode

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Speaker 2: of the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Peralta at

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Speaker 2: Sports Talk Matt to follow me on Twitter. This podcast

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Speaker 2: a lot of business stuff I gotta get into and

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Speaker 2: then I have four bets to go on top of

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Speaker 2: Auburn mid minus one today in Birmingham up against Iowa.

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Speaker 2: The move has come on Auburn all right. The number

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Speaker 2: went to pick and now that now it's one and

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Speaker 2: a half. In climbing it might get to two, we

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Speaker 2: don't know. But the late money, overnight money has come

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Speaker 2: in on Auburn now maybe it gets bought back down

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Speaker 2: and you can get a pick, but that pick still holds.

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Speaker 2: I like Auburn tonight today in Birmingham. Minus one is

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Speaker 2: what the number I laid you might be to get

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Speaker 2: a pick. It's one and a half. Now, So I've

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Speaker 2: got two college basketball bets to give you, guys. I

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Speaker 2: have two NHL bets to give you guys as well.

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Speaker 2: I'll explain why here in just one second. But before

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Speaker 2: we do anything else, a couple quick things. First. Have

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Speaker 2: All right, So our friends at all mos Stakes want

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Speaker 2: and I don't blame them one second for one bit,

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Speaker 2: because look, the spring means March and March madness. It

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Speaker 2: means outside grilling because we've got friends coming over. We're

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Speaker 2: gonna be watching sports and watching basketball for the next

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Speaker 2: three weeks. This is the best thing that we do

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Speaker 2: as a country. I says all the time. You can

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Speaker 2: have the Super Bowl, but we've got forty two states

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Speaker 2: that are represented, including the Creighton Blue Jays out of Omaha, Nebraska,

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Speaker 2: who are going to be playing in this and encompasses

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Speaker 2: so many different walks of life and is just so

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Speaker 2: out at Omaha Steaks dot com. All right, so two

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Speaker 2: and one night last night, we got ourselves a win.

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Speaker 2: So we went one to oh zero in two two

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Speaker 2: and one. All right, so we're flat pretty much for

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Speaker 2: the week. Down the juice a little bit, three and

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Speaker 2: three on the week. So we head to Thursday, I'll

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Speaker 2: have five units plus in play. There is a possibility

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Speaker 2: that at some point during the day today I will

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Speaker 2: add to the card. Okay, but a lot of the games,

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Speaker 2: the competitive games are being played right in the middle

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Speaker 2: of primetime, the late night games not so much. Late

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Speaker 2: night games are all orpreneurs, all gonna be blowouts. The

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Speaker 2: one seeds are all playing late at night. They do

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Speaker 2: it on purpose because they know that the games would

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Speaker 2: get really lop Siday and no one's gonna watch. So

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Speaker 2: they want to have the competitive games in the really

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Speaker 2: big window, in the good window. So if there's something

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Speaker 2: else that I like, I will jump in and I'll

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Speaker 2: add on to it. So we got a hockey. I mean,

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Speaker 2: my gosh, that Minnesota Wild game finished with twelve goals.

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Speaker 2: We played over six. We doubled up the first half unders.

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Speaker 2: It didn't hit for us. It's now one in three

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Speaker 2: to first half unders. And I'm just telling you this.

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Speaker 2: When something gets really trendy, the book starts shading. The

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Speaker 2: books know what people are going to bet, so they

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Speaker 2: start dropping it down. I saw a total tonight with

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Speaker 2: one thirty seven for the game and sixty two and

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Speaker 2: a half for the first half under. I was like,

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Speaker 2: that's not the math.

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Speaker 1: Guys. See what they're doing.

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Speaker 2: They're giving you bad numbers because they know you're going

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Speaker 2: to bet under blindly. Okay, be very careful with this,

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Speaker 2: That's all I'm saying. Just be careful. One in three already.

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Speaker 2: I'll be very curious if it goes seventeen and fifteen

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Speaker 2: over thirty two games. You lay any juice and you

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Speaker 2: make zero money on this. Okay, you can potshot it

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Speaker 2: and pick and choose if you want ensure West Virginia

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Speaker 2: Maryland the first game.

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Speaker 1: Of the day today.

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Speaker 2: Very well, you could bet a first peer, a first

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Speaker 2: half under and feel fairly good about it. I think

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Speaker 2: that probably does hit first game, sleepy empty building. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: probably a decent play, but maybe not because I thought

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Speaker 2: the play that was the highest scoring first half of

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Speaker 2: the season for Arizona State. They couldn't miss hit everything.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Nevada was completely shell shocked. And we're gonna

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Speaker 2: follow that because the Mountain West Conference over their last

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Speaker 2: sixteen tournament games. Do you know the straight up record

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Speaker 2: of the Mountain West Conference in the NAA Tournament two

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Speaker 2: and fourteen? Straight up two and fourteen, and there are

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Speaker 2: two games now. I think San Diego State probably wins.

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Speaker 2: They won the Mountain West Conference tournament. They probably win

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Speaker 2: their games day. So I'm not really gonna get involved

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Speaker 2: with San Diego State, they probably win. But Northwestern in

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Speaker 2: Boise State, I am getting involved with Northwestern nineteen and

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Speaker 2: thirteen ats. They were ten and four away from home.

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Speaker 2: They won at Rutgers. They want at Illinois. This team

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Speaker 2: can play away from home. This team can play in

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Speaker 2: hostile environments. This team can play away from the friendly

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Speaker 2: confines of their own building. Boise nine eight and one

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Speaker 2: on the road ats this year, there were sixteen fourteen

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Speaker 2: to two ats overall. Now, kempom has Boise State winning

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Speaker 2: this game, but kem pom's numbers don't always account for

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Speaker 2: the neutral court. Boo booie for Northwestern. Let's go. It's

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Speaker 2: on you to come up with a big w here. Now,

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Speaker 2: Utah State lost their last three games away from home,

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Speaker 2: and they lost by ten in.

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Speaker 1: To Utah State.

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Speaker 2: Sorry, Boise State, sorry put ninety to Boise State lost

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Speaker 2: their last three games away from home and lost by

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Speaker 2: ten to Utah State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

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Speaker 2: I've seen people lik in Boise. I see people following

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Speaker 2: the ken poms numbers. Free throws are gonna be the key.

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Speaker 2: They're the key to every game, but they're gonna be

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Speaker 2: a really big key for this game. You got the

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Speaker 2: fifty five fIF fifty fifth, fifty five fifty fifth ranking

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Speaker 2: free throw shooting team against one hundred and two for Northwestern.

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Speaker 2: You got to hit your free throws Northwestern in this game,

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Speaker 2: you can't be average. You got to be better than

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Speaker 2: average hitting your free throws. The pick and roll defense,

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Speaker 2: boise is going to be able to play it. They've

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Speaker 2: seen a lot of it in the Mountain West Conference.

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Speaker 2: But I think Northwestern just has too many talented players

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Speaker 2: and they've played such a better brand of competition. I'm

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Speaker 2: not the highest guy in the Big Ten, but the

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Speaker 2: Big Ten Conference is way better than the Mountain West Conference.

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Speaker 2: Small number one and a half Northwestern minus one and

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Speaker 2: a half up against Boise State. I'm taking Northwestern for

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Speaker 2: one point one units. Let's continue the trend. Missouri is

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Speaker 2: taking on Utahs State. Missouri is the dog in this game.

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Speaker 2: They're catching one and a half points in this one.

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Speaker 2: Why well, Utah State was twenty one to twelve ats

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Speaker 2: managed in the Mountain West Conference final where they lost

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Speaker 2: to San Diego State Missouri sixteen sixteen and one ats

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Speaker 2: on the year. Ken Pum again has this as a

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Speaker 2: three point win for Utah State. Here's the thing. This

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Speaker 2: is a battle of top fifteen efficient offenses in college basketball,

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Speaker 2: but Utah States defense on paper is better. They're sixty

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Speaker 2: six right now out to the top one hundred for Missouri.

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Speaker 2: The Aggies shot just thirty three percent in the Mountain

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Speaker 2: West Conference Final overall against San Diego State, and they

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Speaker 2: were four for twenty four from behind the arc. Here

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Speaker 2: are a couple of key stats for the Utah State Aggies.

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Speaker 2: They are twenty four and one this year when they

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Speaker 2: hit forty four percent or more of their threes, which

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Speaker 2: is obvious, right this is a three point bombing team.

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Speaker 2: They're twenty and one on the year when they hit

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Speaker 2: thirty five percent or more. Clearly, four for twenty four

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Speaker 2: is nowhere near either one of those numbers. Missouri is

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Speaker 2: gonna have to close out on the shooters, but they're

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Speaker 2: long and they're athletic, and I think they can do it.

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Speaker 2: Missouri is twenty two to oh this year when they

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Speaker 2: make forty five percent of their shots. They're twenty four

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Speaker 2: and one this year straight up when they hit forty

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Speaker 2: two percent of their shots. Both of those stats are

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Speaker 2: key to take a look at. Missouri's got to get

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Speaker 2: easy baskets, hit their twos when they're open, and they

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Speaker 2: got to close out on the three point shooters, and

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Speaker 2: they got to keep them under thirty five percent. Okay,

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Speaker 2: if Utah State is hitting more than thirty five percent

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Speaker 2: of their threes, we're in trouble and this bet probably

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Speaker 2: is dead. But I like Missouri just again, the level

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Speaker 2: of competition they've played Alabama, They've played very difficult teams,

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Speaker 2: They've played in hostile environments. They're going to be way

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Speaker 2: more athletic than Utah State. They're going to be way

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Speaker 2: longer than you toss State, and I think Missouri's athletes

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Speaker 2: will be the biggest difference when they close out on shooters,

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Speaker 2: getting hands in faces and then not fouling. Don't put

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Speaker 2: Utah State on the foul line, don't give them three shots,

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Speaker 2: don't give them the easy opportunities. I think Missouri wins

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Speaker 2: the game outright. You can take money line if you'd like,

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Speaker 2: sprinkle it for sure, but I'm taking plus one and

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Speaker 2: a half. I'm fading the Mountain West Conference, gaving Missouri

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Speaker 2: plus one and a half, Northwestern minus one and a half,

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Speaker 2: in Auburn minus one. If you notice what I am eyeballing,

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Speaker 2: I'm not laying big points and I'm not taking big points. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I'm uninterested in games. You could say, Matt, these are

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Speaker 2: coin flip games. In a lot of ways, they are right,

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Speaker 2: But I'm looking for edges and I'm not like, I

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Speaker 2: don't want to.

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Speaker 1: Do I don't want to lay six. I don't want

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Speaker 1: to lay seven.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I don't want to be sweating out free throws

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Speaker 2: at the end and get burned by some dumb foul

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Speaker 2: from some senior who doesn't want to watch their career end. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I'm not interested in that. So I'm looking for three

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Speaker 2: points or less for a lot of games in these tournaments.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking for the lower point spreads.

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Speaker 2: I want to get involved with games I think I

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Speaker 2: know who's gonna win the game, where I can predict

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Speaker 2: who's gonna win the game, and I'll bet those sides

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Speaker 2: minus one, minus one and a half plus one and

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Speaker 2: a half. The three bets in the NSAA tournament today

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Speaker 2: that I've got going, I very well might add.

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Speaker 1: Okay, there may be something later tonight.

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Speaker 2: There may be something that jumps off the page, something

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Speaker 2: from BVB that I love that I get involved with

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Speaker 2: the Dave Sheriff and I bounce back and forth and

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Speaker 2: we got to pick that I love that I may add,

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Speaker 2: but for right now.

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Speaker 1: Those are the three bets going into the NSAA tournament.

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Speaker 2: Now, I got two bets in hockey before you go, wait, Matt,

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Speaker 2: come on, man, this is everyone's bet in basketball. Listen.

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Speaker 2: I'm twenty nine and twenty six in college basketball. But oh,

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Speaker 2: I've missed my last three bets in college basketball. Somebody

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Speaker 2: made the funny joke on the Discord channel. They said,

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Speaker 2: this is like Michael Jordan playing baseball when you bet basketball, Like,

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Speaker 2: why just bet hockey? The numbers would bear it out. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I'm thirty six and twenty five up ten units betting

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Speaker 2: in the NHL since coming back. Okay, So, like, I

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Speaker 2: can't not bet hockey because we've been so good at hockey.

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Speaker 2: What I have to bet hockey This is there's a

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Speaker 2: huge slate of games in the NHL, and there's two

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Speaker 2: teams that are playing that we've made a ton of

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Speaker 2: money on, Winnipeg in Vancouver. So I want to get involved.

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Speaker 2: I can't not get involved. Okay, I've got a couple

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Speaker 2: of leans that I can give you as well if

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Speaker 2: you want even more in hockey. But let's start with

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Speaker 2: the Jets and the Bruins. Look, Winnipeg is twenty one

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Speaker 2: to ten and three to the under at home.

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Speaker 1: They're at home.

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Speaker 2: The Boston Bruins are sixteen sixteen and one to the

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Speaker 2: under on the road this year. They're five and five

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Speaker 2: over their last ten and the last time these teams played,

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Speaker 2: it was three to two in Boston. We've got the

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Speaker 2: starting goaltenders in Hellebuck in Ollmark, one to two in

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Speaker 2: the Vesna, seeing each other across the ice. See the

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Speaker 2: goalie fight that we saw nearly with Flurry versus Biddington

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Speaker 2: from last night. Referees to let that go, man, that

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Speaker 2: should have been a brawl. Come on, guys, get out

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Speaker 2: of the way. Let the goalie fight happen. This is awesome.

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Speaker 2: This is minor league.

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Speaker 1: Hockey in the NHL. It's phenomenal. What are you doing?

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Speaker 1: Let them go?

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Speaker 2: But they know goalies. No Ollmark knows, Hellabuck knows. These

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Speaker 2: guys are competing for the Vesna. These guys are competing

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Speaker 2: against each other for this trophy. Third game of the

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Speaker 2: road trip for the Bruins. They haven't been scoring many goals.

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Speaker 2: Bruins have scored six goals in two games. That's not great.

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Speaker 2: They've given up eleven that stops tonight. This is a

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Speaker 2: low scoring game. Bruins defense gets fixed, they get chewed

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Speaker 2: out by Jim Montgomery. Jets play more conservatively, Bruins do

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Speaker 2: as well. Allmark, hellabuck six. We're going under under even

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Speaker 2: money six even money Bruins and the Winnipeg Jets might

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Speaker 2: be a little sweaty.

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Speaker 1: But even money, we're doing it. Bruins Jets under.

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Speaker 2: Now, you can bet Vegas in Calgary to the over.

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Speaker 2: If you want not gonna yell at you go and

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Speaker 2: do that. That's a bet that I nearly made, looked

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Speaker 2: long and hard at it. But the bet that I

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Speaker 2: did make is Vancouver and Arizona.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: So here is going to be the very interesting thing

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Speaker 2: when we're looking at what's going to happen over the

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Speaker 2: next couple of weeks. We've got teams that simply don't

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Speaker 2: care anymore, okay, and Vancouver is very close to being

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Speaker 2: one of those teams that doesn't care anymore. We know

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Speaker 2: Arizona doesn't care anymore.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: Vancouver has sixty three points, Arizona has sixty one points.

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Speaker 2: Arizona is twenty five, thirty two and eleven. Vancouver is

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Speaker 2: twenty nine thirty two and five. Okay, sixty three points.

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Speaker 2: Vancouver is eight one and one to the over on

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Speaker 2: the road and the Coyotes are seven and three to

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Speaker 2: the over at home. I don't know why this is

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Speaker 2: six and a half minus one ten. I don't really

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Speaker 2: understand this. I kind of had to go back and

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Speaker 2: do like four or five double takes on this, going

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Speaker 2: like wait, I've got Demco, I've got I would can't

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Speaker 2: say the guy the kid's name, Vaymelka. I think it's

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Speaker 2: how you say the kid's name. I don't I don't

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Speaker 2: know actual goes numbers, but this is minus one ten

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Speaker 2: for over six and a half. Like, look at the

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Speaker 2: look at the Vancouver in the way they've played recently

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Speaker 2: for one four three, three two five two five two.

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Speaker 1: Now they've won, which is crazy.

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Speaker 2: Vancouver has won five games in a row and they've

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Speaker 2: won let's see seven of nine, which is kind of like, wait,

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Speaker 2: why is Vancouver playing hard?

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Speaker 1: But they're playing hard?

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Speaker 2: Okay, Dempko's got a three point four to one goals

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Speaker 2: against average here, and like most goaltenders for you know,

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Speaker 2: for Vancouver, he has a four point one to three

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Speaker 2: goals against average on the road.

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Speaker 1: Hi four point one. That's not good.

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Speaker 2: In case you in case you need to know about

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Speaker 2: this starting goaltender for the Arizona Coyotes equally, you know,

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Speaker 2: not phenomenal here three point seven on the road, three

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Speaker 2: point zero one at home, but still over three for

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Speaker 2: goals against average and in the you know for for

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Speaker 2: his last five games four two six one six goals

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Speaker 2: giving up. All these games are at home. Arizona's had

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Speaker 2: a crazy long road trip, which is really you know,

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Speaker 2: fortuitous for them to have this level. I think this

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Speaker 2: is the longest home stand of the year for Arizona.

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Speaker 2: Let me double check that. Let's see they've played now, No,

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Speaker 2: they had another game after that, so I guess that

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Speaker 2: the road trip to Colorado. They played one, two, three,

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Speaker 2: four games at home, then a game, then a road

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Speaker 2: trip to Colorado, and then played one two in a row.

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Speaker 2: And they have two more Vancouver tonight and then Chicago

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Speaker 2: coming up on Saturday to close it out, where they

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Speaker 2: Gobo go on the road to at Winnipeg, at Edmonton,

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Speaker 2: at Colorado.

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Speaker 1: Have fun.

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Speaker 2: You're the Coyotes, Uh yeah, not great, but you're just

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Speaker 2: looking at I mean the Coyotes. They want the first

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Speaker 2: pick in the draft, and you know they're just at home.

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Speaker 2: They're giving up a ton of goals. The Coyotes, they're

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Speaker 2: five to four, four to three. Last two games on

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Speaker 2: the road it was three to two, but four to one, six',

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Speaker 2: two five to, four six.' one every game but one

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Speaker 2: of this home stand stretch where every game's been A

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Speaker 2: home extep one has.

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Speaker 1: Been over it's gone over six and a. Half goals don't.

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Speaker 2: Overthink this coyotes In the canucks over six and a

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Speaker 2: half one point, one units minus. One ten i'm taking

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Speaker 2: it gold. Overthink it we're jumping in, on it. All

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Speaker 2: right so five, bets going they're all minus. ONE ten

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Speaker 2: i guess one's. Even money so it's five point four

352
00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:24,080
Speaker 2: units in, play tonight maybe more, coming Potentially but auburn

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Speaker 2: minus one minus one ten to win, one unit one point,

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00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:31,560
Speaker 2: One units northwestern minus one and a half mins, one

355
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:36,800
Speaker 2: ten one point units taking plus little dog action fading

356
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 2: This with missouri plus one and a Half on Missouri

357
00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,920
Speaker 2: Against utah state at minus one ten at mis, one

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Speaker 2: ten we're going under six Even money bruins And the

359
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:51,240
Speaker 2: jets for, one unit and we're going over six and

360
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,400
Speaker 2: a Half for Vancouver in arizona for one point one

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Speaker 2: units again In the, discode channel Bettingpros dot COM's last

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00:18:58,040 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 2: chat to get. Into it there may be SOMETHING else

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Speaker 2: i will. Add today it's gonna be a busy Four, Days, Thursday, Friday.

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Speaker 2: Saturday sunday welcome To. THE madness i talked To the

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Speaker 2: discord CHANNEL and I Was. Mat paroll follow Me on

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Speaker 2: twitter At Sports. Talk matt every single morning it Is

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Speaker 2: THE The L, juice podcast being brought to You by benham

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Speaker 2: jam