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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Wednesday

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Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Peralti. You guys can follow me across all of

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Speaker 1: my socials at Sports Talk Matt and we just have

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Speaker 1: to laugh. Woh, that was bad. So I was right.

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Speaker 1: I said, be careful, maybe bet half units as I

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Speaker 1: go into this is the transition period that I often

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Speaker 1: I have struggled with in the past, and I'm clearly

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Speaker 1: struggling when you go from the end of football into

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Speaker 1: the This is kind of like that bridge time where

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Speaker 1: we're not fully I'm not fully connected to the NBA.

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Speaker 1: We're not into you know, we're just into conference time

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Speaker 1: here for college basketball and hockey. I just need to

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Speaker 1: get back to watching hockey and getting more into the

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Speaker 1: rhythm of hockey. There will be trends that will jump

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Speaker 1: into It happens all the time as we get to

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Speaker 1: know February and whatnot. But this has always been a

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Speaker 1: little bit of an interesting time because I am obviously

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Speaker 1: doing very well in football. We've been very successful in

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Speaker 1: the NFL this year. But now we're getting into the

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Speaker 1: other sports and on days where we don't have football, well,

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Speaker 1: I got smacked. And this is Look, I didn't do

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Speaker 1: as badly as the person. I saw a guy who

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Speaker 1: took twenty and a half and at minus four ninety

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Speaker 1: five odds, he bet fifty bucks to win ten and well,

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Speaker 1: the Spurs lost by twenty one points. Ye Iowa State

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Speaker 1: guts smoked at KU. I told you going into that

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Speaker 1: it's really rare to ever get points for Ku at

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Speaker 1: home and fall allen. They won't be a dog again

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Speaker 1: this year after what just happened. That game they won

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Speaker 1: by twenty as three and a half point dogs, and

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Speaker 1: then zero zero after one. That game ended two to

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Speaker 1: one between Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh's other game was a

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Speaker 1: debt under in the first half in the first period

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Speaker 1: as well. So all in three down over three and

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Speaker 1: a half units, and look, I think it's it's one

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Speaker 1: of those one of those nights, and you're just like, okay,

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Speaker 1: those are three really bad bets. I knew I was

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Speaker 1: in trouble with the basketball bet because one of my friends,

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Speaker 1: who was a very good NBA handicapper, was on. He

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Speaker 1: liked the thunder, and I was like, oh boy, okay,

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Speaker 1: I don't like being up against him and being opposite

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Speaker 1: him on certain plays and that was one of them.

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Speaker 1: So what do we do? What? We just keep rolling. However,

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Speaker 1: here's how today it's going to go. Wednesday, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: bet the NFL okay because these numbers are moving, So

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Speaker 1: we're gonna bet the Saturday games today. Wednesday, We're gonna

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Speaker 1: bet the Sunday games Tomorrow. We worry about Friday Friday,

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Speaker 1: and then we'll get into the player props on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: In Sunday live stream will be Saturday again this week Sunday,

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Speaker 1: we will do all four games. It'll be a quicker

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Speaker 1: than normal live stream, but we're talking about all four games,

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Speaker 1: taking you up to kickoff of the first game of

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Speaker 1: the weekend between the Bills and the Broncos, So stay

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Speaker 1: tuned for that. Will give you a picks on Bill's

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Speaker 1: Broncos and then Seattle in the forty nine ers coming

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Speaker 1: up here for today. But we are going to do

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Speaker 1: that Wednesday, Thursday. For Saturday and Sunday. I do have

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Speaker 1: two NBA player props that I'm going to give you

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Speaker 1: guys on the Betting pros app later today. And there

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Speaker 1: is a hard rock bet of the Day coming today

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Speaker 1: for a game that's today on Wednesday for a pick

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Speaker 1: for today. We are eleven and seven on the hard

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Speaker 1: rock bets of the day, so we'll do that coming

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Speaker 1: up for today, so stay tuned for all of that.

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Speaker 1: So let's start talking about Denver and their home game

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Speaker 1: against the Broncos. This is going to be really interesting. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's just go through a couple of trends. You guys

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Speaker 1: know I'm a trend better Broncos pick them. Okay, some

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Speaker 1: books are at one and a half on either side.

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Speaker 1: We're just playing money line, Okay, Broncos money line. Sean Payton,

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Speaker 1: head coach of the Broncos. When in the postseason his

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Speaker 1: teams are on extended rest, he is four and oher

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Speaker 1: straight up. He's never lost in this situation. He's two

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Speaker 1: and two against the spread, but this is a money

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Speaker 1: line play, so it doesn't matter what the number. He's

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Speaker 1: never lost. His four and oh mark straight up is

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Speaker 1: the best of any head coach in the playoffs since

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Speaker 1: two thousand and three. He is a tremendous coach when

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Speaker 1: you give him extra time. The Broncos and the Bills.

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Speaker 1: This is gonna be very interesting because Josh Allen as

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Speaker 1: a favorite of three points or less or as an

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Speaker 1: underdog in the playoffs is now three and five ATS,

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Speaker 1: so that's not great. But Buffalo is a second half

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Speaker 1: team and they did very well again in the second

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Speaker 1: half against the spread. In Josh Allen's career in the

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Speaker 1: second half, if you want to bet, I can have spreads.

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Speaker 1: Allen is eighty seven fifty and three in the second

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Speaker 1: half against the spread in his career, which is incredible

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Speaker 1: that it is an amazing mark. Over the last two seasons,

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Speaker 1: he's twenty eight and nine in the second half ATS wise,

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Speaker 1: fourteen and one ATS in the second half against teams

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Speaker 1: above five hundred. Interesting stat from the Action Network that

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Speaker 1: I saw last night Sean McDermott when he is coaching

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Speaker 1: a team that the week prior when three for three

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Speaker 1: in the red zone are better than next week, they're

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Speaker 1: just three and eight ATS in one in seven ats

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Speaker 1: over the last seven games. Look. I like the Broncos

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Speaker 1: for a variety of reasons. Mostly it's their defense, mostly

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Speaker 1: is what they're capable of doing. But the Bills are

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Speaker 1: really banged up. Josh Allen has a foot, a knee,

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Speaker 1: and a finger issue all hurt again. Jacksonville the helmet

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Speaker 1: throw where his hand hit the helmet of his center.

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Speaker 1: That hurt his hand. He hurt the knee when it

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Speaker 1: got twisted. He hurt the foot running. You've got Ed

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Speaker 1: Oliver has a bicep injury. Dalton king Kaid has a

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Speaker 1: knee in a calf, Matt Mulano has an ankle. You

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Speaker 1: just go through this. This is you know. Jordan Poyer

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Speaker 1: didn't practice yesterday. He has a hamstring. Terrell Shavers wide receiver,

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Speaker 1: didn't practice yesterday. He had a knee injury. Matt Prater,

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Speaker 1: the kicker, didn't practice yesterday. He has a quad and

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Speaker 1: a calf. He was nursing that before the game as well.

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Speaker 1: They are banged up. Okay. Dray greenlaw for the Broncos

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Speaker 1: was limited, but he did practice. Getting him back was huge.

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Speaker 1: That was talked about by Sean Payton after practice that

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Speaker 1: he just does so much for that defense day. Getting

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Speaker 1: Drake greenlog back is such a huge thing for Denver

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Speaker 1: going into this game. The injury report is really really ugly,

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Speaker 1: and the NFL did the Bills no favors. They played

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Speaker 1: the first game on Sunday on the road. They're playing

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Speaker 1: the first game on Saturday on a short week against

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Speaker 1: a team off of buy at home at altitude, it's

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Speaker 1: just too much. I know Josh Allen is incredible. I

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Speaker 1: know he's superman. He can't do it by himself, and

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Speaker 1: not against this defense, not against this crowd, the mile

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Speaker 1: high attitude, the mile high energy. I just think the

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Speaker 1: Broncos find a way. I don't think the unders. A

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Speaker 1: good play will probably be on that later in the week,

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Speaker 1: but right now, I think the first play you got

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Speaker 1: to make because I do think this number is gonna climb.

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Speaker 1: I do think Broncos money is gonna steadily come in here.

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Speaker 1: I think the Broncos go off as a one and

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Speaker 1: a half or a two point favorite here, and I

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Speaker 1: think that's the right side. I'm taking the Broncos money

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Speaker 1: line one point one units Broncos to win. Broncos on

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Speaker 1: the money line to knock out the Buffalo Bills. I

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Speaker 1: know I fitted the Bills last week and I lost.

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Speaker 1: I could be wrong again here, but I just you know,

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Speaker 1: you want to talk about a referee trend. Carl Scheffers

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Speaker 1: is the referee for this game since two thousand and nine.

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Speaker 1: The Broncos are eight and one straight up at home

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Speaker 1: with him as the referee. Okay, let's see what happens

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Speaker 1: on this But home teams are above five hundred straight

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Speaker 1: up for twelve straight seasons with him as the head official.

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Speaker 1: Home teams do fairly well. Home teams in fifteen playoff

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Speaker 1: games eleven and four with Carl Scheffers as the head referee.

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Speaker 1: So there you go. We go to Seattle and the

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers. My goodness, gracious, if you want to

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Speaker 1: talk about banged up, if you want to talk about injuries,

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Speaker 1: there is nothing worse than the forty nine ers injury report.

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Speaker 1: I mean, just really really bad. This team now being

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Speaker 1: without George Kittle. They got smoked at Seattle in week eighteen,

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Speaker 1: which was for the number one seed and it was

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Speaker 1: for the division, and Seattle worked them. This number now

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Speaker 1: is seven. The best stat is it. Sam Darnold as

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Speaker 1: a favorite of six points or more is thirteen and

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Speaker 1: oh straight up and ten and three against the spread.

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Speaker 1: Donald winning those thirteen games when he's favored by six

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Speaker 1: points or more, he's averaging winning it by sixteen points

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Speaker 1: per game, not just winning these games for blowing their

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Speaker 1: teams out. His thirteen and oh straight up mark is

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Speaker 1: tied with Bo Nix, who is also thirteen to oh

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Speaker 1: in this spot for the best mark in the NFL

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Speaker 1: since two thousand and three. The Seahawks have won ten

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Speaker 1: straight games at home in Seattle with fans in the stands.

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Speaker 1: They did lose a wild card game against the Rams

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Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty with no fans during COVID, but

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Speaker 1: when they have fans in there really difficult. Seahawks have

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Speaker 1: won seven consecutive games outright entering their buy before the

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Speaker 1: divisional round. Teams that have won seven straight games off

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Speaker 1: a by in the divisional round have not fared well

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Speaker 1: at all. If you're looking for a silver lining for

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Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. The number is two to eight

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Speaker 1: against the spread since two thousand and three, But I

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Speaker 1: think that's mostly because teams that are on buys tend

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Speaker 1: to get a little rusty, and then the team is

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Speaker 1: coming off of a win, they normally are rolling. That

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Speaker 1: situation here I don't think is happening because of the

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Speaker 1: injuries and because of how banged up this team is

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Speaker 1: in playing at home in the divisional round, I think

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Speaker 1: is just a really big advantage. I know it's a

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Speaker 1: big number, but I just I mean, brought Purty eight

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Speaker 1: and four straight up on short rest. He's been great,

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Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan with an incredible job, and Robert Sala Frankly

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Speaker 1: an incredible job with the defense last week. I just

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Speaker 1: think we're asking too much of this forty nine Ers

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Speaker 1: team after getting manhandled. I just can't see it. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna lay it with Seattle. I'm gonna lay the seven

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Speaker 1: points here. I don't think this number goes much farther

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Speaker 1: south than seven. I think if it does go to

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Speaker 1: six and a half, I think the professionals are gonna

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Speaker 1: hammer the Seahawks at minus seven. I'm gonna come in

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Speaker 1: and do Seahawks minus seven for one point one units.

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Speaker 1: So a reminder about the two NBA player props which

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Speaker 1: will hit you on the Betting pros app. Download the

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Speaker 1: Betting pros app and go and search at Sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: I will put two NBA player props coming up on

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Speaker 1: the Betting pros app later on today, so be a

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Speaker 1: searching for that. But it is now time for the

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Speaker 1: hard Rock Bet of the Day. It is being brought

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Speaker 1: is a very big week as we count down to

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Speaker 1: Your team may be knocked out of the playoffs, but

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Speaker 1: that does not mean that to sit on the sidelines.

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Speaker 1: Plenty of things to get involved with at hard rock Bet.

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Speaker 1: New promos dropping every single day at hard rock Bet.

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Speaker 1: Download the hard rock Bet app and make your first

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Speaker 1: deposit two day. Let's talk some college basketball here between

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Speaker 1: Utah and Texas Tech. So Utah is a team that

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Speaker 1: we're gonna bet at home over for a while until

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Speaker 1: it knocks out. Utah is ten and zero at home

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Speaker 1: to the over. However, they are four and two to

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Speaker 1: the under when they're on the road, and Utah is

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Speaker 1: on the road at Texas Tech. Three of the last

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Speaker 1: four games for Texas Tech have gone under, including a

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Speaker 1: home game against Winthrop, in road games at Houston and

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Speaker 1: at Colorado. The total for this game is one sixty

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Speaker 1: and a half and when you go to Kempom, this

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Speaker 1: would be a one fifty seven type of situation here

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Speaker 1: between these two teams. I think this is going to

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Speaker 1: be a low scoring game. This is going to be

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Speaker 1: a slow game because of just what Utah does average

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Speaker 1: and what Texas Tech does one eighty eight in average

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Speaker 1: possession length. Utah is one ninety second in average possession length.

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Speaker 1: Utah is three point shooting at home is pretty good

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Speaker 1: on the road not very good. It's still one hundred

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Speaker 1: and ninth in college basketball. They're one hundred and nineteenth

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Speaker 1: and two point shooting. They are one hundred and seventh

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Speaker 1: in three throw shooting. Now, Texas Tech can hit threes.

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Speaker 1: That's why they're expected to win this game going away

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Speaker 1: by seventeen and a half points. But it's Techs defense

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Speaker 1: that I think will be the difference here. They are

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Speaker 1: thirty four fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency. They're one hundred

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Speaker 1: and eleventh in effective field goal percentage, but they're eighty

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Speaker 1: seconds in three point percentage defense. They're not great on

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Speaker 1: twos or one hundred and forty six with two point defense.

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Speaker 1: But Utah tends to shoot a lot of threes. They

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Speaker 1: want to get up and down and shoot threes, and

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Speaker 1: they don't hit a bunch of threes when they're on

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Speaker 1: the road. Techs offense on the other side, nineteenth adjusted

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Speaker 1: efficiency on offense, they're fifty fifth and three point shooting,

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Speaker 1: they're forty first in turnover percentage. They are sorry, they're

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Speaker 1: twenty fourth in three point shooting and one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifth and two point percentage. They don't hit their free throws,

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Speaker 1: which is good for the under. They're two hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventy seventh in free throw shooting seventy four point three

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Speaker 1: percent for Utah. That's one hundred and seventh in free

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Speaker 1: throw shooting. So I just think this game, this total

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Speaker 1: is too high for what I think these two teams

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Speaker 1: are going to look like. At one sixt and a half,

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Speaker 1: Like I mentioned, Kempom has this at one fifty seven

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Speaker 1: and eighty. You know, from a final perspective, you can

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Speaker 1: get involved. You know you're going to take a look

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Speaker 1: at where this game might wind up falling uh a

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Speaker 1: seventeen point win. The line is seventeen, so KEMPOM has

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Speaker 1: this right where the number is at seventeen and a half.

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Speaker 1: So I think the under is a better play in this.

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Speaker 1: And if you look at one sixty and a half,

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Speaker 1: that's what it was against Colorado was one sixty one

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Speaker 1: and a half. That game went under. Houston's a bit

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Speaker 1: of an anomaly just because of where you are playing

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Speaker 1: the defense of Houston. But one sixty eight and a half,

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Speaker 1: one sixty three, one sixty two. The last three games

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Speaker 1: for Utah have all been, you know, pretty high. Two

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Speaker 1: of those three games have been at home. Colorado one

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Speaker 1: sixty three went under on the road. Washington one fifty

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Speaker 1: seven and a half went on the road, went under

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Speaker 1: by eighteen and a half. Cal one fifty two and

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Speaker 1: a half one two two game went under by one,

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Speaker 1: but it did go under. Last three true road games

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Speaker 1: for Utah have all gone under. And we're going to

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Speaker 1: do it again here road game. Utah under one sixty

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Speaker 1: and a half. That is our hard rock bet of

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Speaker 1: the day, Utah Texas Tech under one sixty and a

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Speaker 1: half for one point one units. We are eleven and seven.

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Speaker 1: There that and hopefully we can get back on the

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Speaker 1: winning track after a really bad Tuesday. Check out the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros app for two NBA player props coming at

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Speaker 1: you later on today. We will do Sunday's games tomorrow,

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Speaker 1: Wednesday's games today to recap, We're going Broncos money line,

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Speaker 1: Seattle minus seven, and the hard rock bet of the

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Speaker 1: day of Utah Texas Tech under one sixty and half minus.

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Speaker 1: Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me across all my

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Speaker 1: socials at Sports Talk Matt every morning. Wherever you guys

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts. It is the Daily Juice. Sermo Santo

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Speaker 1: di Santo