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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.

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Speaker 2: Podcasts.

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Speaker 1: Radio.

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Speaker 3: News.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

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Speaker 1: at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: We have been remiss. One of the interns at Macro

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Speaker 3: Policy Perspectives emailed me.

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Speaker 4: Okay.

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Speaker 3: I think out of Texas. You know, it's Julia. What

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Speaker 3: do you want? And she said, Julia's miffed. There's just

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Speaker 3: not enough Fed chat on Bloomberg surveillance. Joining us now

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Speaker 3: from the Texas sphere, Julia Coronado, president, founder, Macro Policy Perspectives. Julia,

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Speaker 3: are we talking less about the Fed because Chairman Warsh

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Speaker 3: wants us to talk less about the Fed?

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Speaker 4: I don't know if I would describe it that way, Tom.

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Speaker 5: I mean, right now we're talking less about the Fed

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Speaker 5: because it's the quiet period ahead of the FOMC meeting,

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Speaker 5: number one. And number two, we all know what they're

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Speaker 5: going to do. Why do we know what they're going

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Speaker 5: to do? Because we got good old-fashioned forward guidance from

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Speaker 5: leadership on the FOMC telling us that October was a

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Speaker 5: hold to gather more information. So I think that that's

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Speaker 5: the real answer is we already know what they're going

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Speaker 5: to do because we, in fact, did get forward guidance.

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Speaker 3: Can you glean, folks, full disclosure, Dr. Cornell has been

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Speaker 3: verbally shortlisted for governor and all that. Can you glean, Julia,

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Speaker 3: the governor and president's power or push against their newly

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Speaker 3: minted chairmen?

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I mean, look, there was already a rethinking of the

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Speaker 5: inflationary dynamics we're seeing before Chair Warsh walked into the

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Speaker 5: door of the FOMC, of the Federal Reserve. And that

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Speaker 5: kept going. So he walked into a really challenging situation.

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Speaker 5: If your goal is going to be to cut rates

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Speaker 5: or even to hold them steady, you are confronting a

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Speaker 5: committee that was increasingly worried about stickiness and inflation, persistence

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Speaker 5: and inflation. And I think that that's been borne out

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Speaker 5: by the data. And so, yeah, I do think the

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Speaker 5: committee dynamic is one very powerful, constraining force on Warsh.

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Speaker 5: And he read the tea leaves and knows that his

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Speaker 5: job is to lead that committee. So he signed on

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Speaker 5: to basically a hiking cycle.

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Speaker 4: Joy, as we think about the stickiness of this inflation,

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Speaker 4: is there an argument to be made that maybe this

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Speaker 4: is kind of the new normal if we're trying to

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Speaker 4: reshore some manufacturing in this country? That suggests higher prices.

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Speaker 4: If we're talking about limiting or eliminating immigration, that might

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Speaker 4: push up wages for those that are here. Is there

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Speaker 4: some structural changes that might suggest, hey, this 2% number

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Speaker 4: is probably not the right target anymore?

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Speaker 5: Well, I hear that argument being made, and that sends

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Speaker 5: shivers down my spine as a monetary policy aficionado. Once

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Speaker 5: we start making excuses for inflation, price stability starts slipping

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Speaker 5: away from us. We've done it in the past, and

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Speaker 5: I do hear rumblings about that. Again, I hear, well,

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Speaker 5: AI isn't interest rate sensitive. So if it's one of

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Speaker 5: the drivers of inflation, the Fed can't do anything about that.

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Speaker 5: I think actually what we've seen in markets in the

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Speaker 5: last few weeks illustrates that AI is interest rate sensitive.

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Speaker 5: And of course it is because it's the most capital

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Speaker 5: hungry sector we've had in decades. So of course, the

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Speaker 5: cost of capital is going to impact investor sentiment and

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Speaker 5: sensitivity to the numbers that they're putting out. So I

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Speaker 5: don't like that. I don't subscribe to that line of thinking.

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Speaker 5: I think it's very important that we remember why the

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Speaker 5: Federal Reserve was created in the first place.

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Speaker 3: It was out of the ashes of the railroad boom

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Speaker 3: and bust. Let's not do that.

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Speaker 5: The Fed doesn't need to crush the economy. but it

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Speaker 5: does need to keep inflation in check and it set

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Speaker 5: a target and it needs to kind of try and

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Speaker 5: meet that target.

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Speaker 3: Julia Carnato with us on Macro Policy Perspectives. Julia, do

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Speaker 3: you see evidence, and I'm looking at a 10-year where

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Speaker 3: Paul and I are starting to chat up a 499.

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Speaker 3: We're not there yet, but do you see before the

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Speaker 3: fact that the combination of inflation and real GDP could

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Speaker 3: shock and nominal GDP actually start to come down? Is

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Speaker 3: that a story we should be talking about?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think there's a number of things

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Speaker 5: that could slow down nominal GDP. I think what the

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Speaker 5: inflation pressures are telling us is that there is a

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Speaker 5: speed limit to the AI build out. And so and,

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Speaker 5: you know, consumer purchasing power is taking a hit and

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Speaker 5: really consumers are being held up by wealth effects. So

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Speaker 5: all of these things sort of tell us that yeah,

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Speaker 5: we could see some moderation in nominal GDP growth, you know,

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Speaker 5: in the year ahead.

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Speaker 4: And, you know, we've been on.

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Speaker 5: A hockey stick in terms of CapEx outlays and announced plans.

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Speaker 5: Even if that growth rate slows, you know, you're going

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Speaker 5: to see, you know, some more moderate numbers. So I

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Speaker 5: think some moderation in nominal GDP growth is probably a

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Speaker 5: baseline expectation for 2027.

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Speaker 3: What's the real wage doing right now? Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Well, real wages are not growing. The labor market is

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Speaker 5: not tight.

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Speaker 3: It is fine.

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Speaker 5: It is very balanced. But we do not see any

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Speaker 5: indications in the wage growth measure, any of the wage

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Speaker 5: growth measures, really, that wages are firming or accelerating. And

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Speaker 5: that means that this sticky inflation is taking a toll

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Speaker 5: on consumer purchasing power.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Paul.

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Speaker 3: I got to be honest, I didn't come up with

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Speaker 3: that question. No? That was from Adam Farstrup's deck.

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Speaker 4: Adam Farstrup's deck, exactly.

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Speaker 3: And Schroeder's came up with that question for me to

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Speaker 3: get me to Julia Cardano.

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Speaker 4: We love that. Hey, Julia, as we think about AI,

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Speaker 4: it just seems to be everywhere. It's in everyone's conversation,

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Speaker 4: it seems like. What are the economic impacts from AI,

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Speaker 4: all this spending? If you strip out AI, what does

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Speaker 4: it mean for GDP growth? What does it mean for

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Speaker 4: underlying inflation? We're just trying to figure out you know,

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Speaker 4: how this is impacting other parts of the economy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I mean, it really is kind of drawing in all

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Speaker 5: heat and light, isn't it? I mean, it's, it is

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Speaker 5: holding up the economy. There's plenty of ripple effects from

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Speaker 5: the data center build out the AI build out into,

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Speaker 5: you know, the suppliers of the components. You can see

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Speaker 5: its footprint in the labor market. You're seeing construction hiring

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Speaker 5: and manufacturing hiring and transportation and warehousing and adding more jobs,

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Speaker 5: even as other sectors slow down. So you can see

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Speaker 5: that it really is the main driver. And then again,

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Speaker 5: if we turn back to the consumer, consumption's been running

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Speaker 5: ahead of real income growth.

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Speaker 3: Why?

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Speaker 5: Because of AI-led wealth effects. So It's not just the U.S. either,

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Speaker 5: because U.S. GDP for all of the capex boom we're

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Speaker 5: in the middle of is still only growing around 2%.

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Speaker 6: Why?

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Speaker 5: Because a lot of that demand is being exported. So

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Speaker 5: the chips and the components. So it's a global GDP driver,

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Speaker 5: not just a U.S. GDP driver.

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Speaker 3: But it's quite material.

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Speaker 4: It really is the story. Right.

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Speaker 3: I feel more at peace now after talking to Dr. Coronado.

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Speaker 3: We've done our obligatory Fed chat. It's just, you know,

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Speaker 3: it's like Dr. Julia. It's therapy.

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Speaker 4: Get it done.

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Speaker 3: Julian Coronado, thank you so much. Macro Policy Perspectives here.

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Speaker 3: Stay with us.

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Speaker 7: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on

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Speaker 1: Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Obviously, I think it's 13 days I heard away from

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Speaker 3: the election. Vote early, vote often. Jennifer Lawless with us,

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Speaker 3: professor at University of Virginia. Wonderful, wonderful. Jennifer, you have

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Speaker 3: it in your note. Thank you. I've got to bounce

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Speaker 3: off Jeff Green's tour de force. The first line of

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Speaker 3: young men blackpilling out. I've checked out. Professor Lawless, how

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Speaker 3: much of America would you guess is checked out of

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Speaker 3: this election?

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Speaker 6: Well, Ordinarily in midterm elections, the majority of the nation

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Speaker 6: is checked out. But we've learned over the last decade

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Speaker 6: that Donald Trump is a very motivating force for people

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Speaker 6: on both sides of the aisle. And midterm turnout has

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Speaker 6: increased in 2018 and 2022. It was higher than in

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Speaker 6: previous cycles. And my bet is that we'll see record

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Speaker 6: turnout this time. So at least a third of the

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Speaker 6: country will still be tuned out and, you know, very

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Speaker 6: turned off. But I do think that people will show

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Speaker 6: up at the polls and more than 10 million have

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Speaker 6: already cast ballots.

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Speaker 4: Interesting. Is the Senate in play, Professor, do you think? Oh, unquestionably.

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Speaker 6: I mean, depending on which predictions you look at and

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Speaker 6: depending on which polls you give more weight to, there

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Speaker 6: are up to a dozen seats that could potentially flip.

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Speaker 6: But the Democrats don't need a dozen seats. And I

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Speaker 6: think that if the election was held today. they would

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Speaker 6: likely take back the Senate, probably not by a huge margin,

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Speaker 6: but by one or two seats.

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Speaker 4: If you're the Republican National Committee chairperson, what are you

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Speaker 4: doing today? You've got a president who's got very low

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Speaker 4: approval ratings pursuing policies, whether it's tariffs or a war

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Speaker 4: in Iran that don't poll well in general. I mean,

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Speaker 4: what do you do here?

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Speaker 6: Well, I think we're seeing two strategies, and they're both

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Speaker 6: potentially smart, but regardless, they're the only options. The first

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Speaker 6: is for candidates in very close races to distance themselves

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Speaker 6: from Donald Trump. And we're seeing Trump allow that a

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Speaker 6: little bit more than we have in previous cycles. John

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Speaker 6: Sununu in New Hampshire, for example, has said, run an

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Speaker 6: ad where he basically says he's not Donald Trump and

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Speaker 6: the Democrats are mischaracterizing him that way. In a previous cycle,

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Speaker 6: Donald Trump would get very angry if a Republican was

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Speaker 6: trying to distance himself.

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Speaker 4: That's one option.

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Speaker 6: The other option is to really drive up voter turnout

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Speaker 6: and to make sure that those low propensity voters who

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Speaker 6: turned out when Trump was at the top of the ticket,

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Speaker 6: who are part of the MAGA base, turn out even

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Speaker 6: when Trump isn't on the ticket. So I think there's

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Speaker 6: this two-pronged strategy, but Basically, both are Hail Mary passes

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Speaker 6: for the Republicans at this point.

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Speaker 3: Jennifer Lawless, you are definitive in the study of women

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Speaker 3: in the American election history as well. I've heard almost

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Speaker 3: zero about women in this midterm election.

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Speaker 4: Is that odd?

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Speaker 6: Typically, we talk about every election as the year of

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Speaker 6: the woman.

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Speaker 4: Can women make gains?

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Speaker 6: Are women going to get a record number of seats

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Speaker 6: in the House or Senate. This time around, identity politics

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Speaker 6: just doesn't seem to be playing much of a role.

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Speaker 6: Women won several contested primaries. You know, there are women

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Speaker 6: who are obviously spending tons of money in this race.

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Speaker 6: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, for example, just put a million dollars of

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Speaker 6: her own money into the Michigan Senate race. But this

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Speaker 6: time around, it's really about partisanship all the way.

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Speaker 4: Professor, is it too early to think about 2028? Because

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Speaker 4: I don't read anything, hear anything about that.

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Speaker 3: I listen to you. Exactly. Get in front of the script.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I don't even know who we should be

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Speaker 4: thinking about at this point in time.

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Speaker 6: My bet is that we'll start talking about 2028 about

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Speaker 6: 48 hours after the election. The problem, of course, for

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Speaker 6: candidates that are interested in running for president is that

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Speaker 6: many of them are up for reelection this time around.

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Speaker 6: So John Ossoff, for example, who would be a very

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Speaker 6: credible candidate and a strong contender for 2028, first has

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Speaker 6: to win back, win his Senate seat. And so it

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Speaker 6: would be gauche to discuss running for 2028 until he

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Speaker 6: gets that 2026 victory.

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Speaker 3: The view from Charlottesville, can the Democrats run to the center?

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Speaker 3: To Paul's good question on 28, is this a seismic

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Speaker 3: change where both parties leave the culture wars and the

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Speaker 3: rest of it, the polarity, and they run to the middle?

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Speaker 6: I don't think so. I think we've reached an era

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Speaker 6: of American politics where it's all about turnout and And

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Speaker 6: we are polarized, and we are generally split in terms

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Speaker 6: of who affiliates with the Democrats and the Republicans. And

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Speaker 6: keep in mind, by the way, that the electorate is

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Speaker 6: far more moderate than the candidates they elect. They're just

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Speaker 6: given these choices on the left and the right. But

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Speaker 6: because we're so polarized, we've gotten to the point where

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Speaker 6: whether there's a D or an R in front of

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Speaker 6: a candidate's name tells us almost everything we need to know.

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Speaker 6: So the goals for these candidates now is to drive

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Speaker 6: up turnout among their supporters and to win over independents.

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Speaker 4: It's not about running to the middle anymore.

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Speaker 3: Jennifer Lawless, thank you so much for wisdom this morning

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Speaker 3: at the University of Virginia. Professor Lawless, just definitive on

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Speaker 3: the study of our election system. Stay with us.

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Speaker 7: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on

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00:14:04,190 --> 00:14:07,449
Speaker 1: Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Many talk, very few do. So you're a freshman and

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Speaker 3: mostly you're worried about which happy hour are we going to?

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Speaker 4: Exactly. That's how we rolled.

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Speaker 3: It was a little different for Sean Henry at Georgia

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Speaker 3: Tech as a freshman. He said, I just think I

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Speaker 3: want to be entrepreneurial and figure out prime Amazon prime

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Speaker 3: for people that are priming. And it is stored studio.

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Speaker 3: We're thrilled he could join us today after leaving Georgia Tech.

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Speaker 3: After they supported him and said, if it screws up,

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Speaker 3: you can come back. After taking beverages of their choices

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Speaker 3: with Kleiner Perkins and Founder Fund.

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Speaker 4: Not bad.

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Speaker 3: Not bad. Sean Henry's here after commencement. What was it

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Speaker 3: like your commencement speak when you came back at Georgia Tech?

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Speaker 8: You know, if I can tease them on air, I

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Speaker 8: really was hopeful for that, that honorary degree when I

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Speaker 8: gave the commencement. But no, more than anything, it's kind

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Speaker 8: of like the young entrepreneurial journey work. I stand up

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Speaker 8: there and say, I don't have all the answers, but

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Speaker 8: this is the best I have.

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Speaker 3: All the parents have a total cow. OMG, you're not

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Speaker 3: completing school. Was there pushback when you exited Georgia Tech

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Speaker 3: and said, I'm going to beat Amazon at Prime?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I think with the scale and ambition of the mission,

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Speaker 8: it was quite daunting to anyone we said it to

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Speaker 8: back then. But that was really what enabled me to

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Speaker 8: go and found the business. I ended up at Teal Fellow,

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Speaker 8: and Georgia Tech was the most open door in the world,

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Speaker 8: telling my parents directly, if it doesn't work, we'll have

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Speaker 8: them back.

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Speaker 3: Very cool. What's the next step now? I'm not big

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Speaker 3: on what we're working at this valuation, but is the

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Speaker 3: next step Jassy and Amazon Bayou? Is the next step

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Speaker 3: Somebody else buys you. What's the next step for Stuart?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, we completed a $ 250 million Series F at $ 3

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Speaker 8: billion earlier this year. And to your point, that's still

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Speaker 8: roughly one one-thousandth of the Amazon market cap, which is 36%

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Speaker 8: of U.S.

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Speaker 4: E-commerce.

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Speaker 8: And we really exist to serve the rest of that market,

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Speaker 8: enable all independent merchants with prime level speeds and costs.

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Speaker 4: But we're not there yet, to be honest. We are

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Speaker 4: better than the industry. The average U.S.

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Speaker 8: E-commerce business, 86% of them don't offer free delivery. The

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Speaker 8: average delivery speed is between five and six days. It

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Speaker 8: costs that business 12 plus dollars. Meanwhile, Amazon's delivering tomorrow

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Speaker 8: for four to five dollars with free returns and free

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Speaker 8: upfront promise and more. So we're closing that gap where

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Speaker 8: today stored offers two day delivery across the US, across Canada,

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Speaker 8: across Europe. But we're still in the pursuit of scale.

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Speaker 8: Scale is what enables us to place units close to consumers,

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Speaker 8: get that last mile density, get that speed and cost

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Speaker 8: and trust of Prime.

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Speaker 3: Sounds like a CEO. He's got a dumb cold, Paul.

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Speaker 4: So you guys made an acquisition today that helps you

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Speaker 4: get there. Talk to us about what Steward did today.

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Speaker 3: Exactly.

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Speaker 8: And that's part of that added scale I was hitting at.

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Speaker 8: So we just closed the acquisition of AMS Fulfillment, a

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Speaker 8: 20 plus year operator, over 10 million annual e-commerce orders

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Speaker 8: and packages, over 600 employees across over a million square

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Speaker 8: feet of fulfillment infrastructure. And as I said, what we've

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Speaker 8: really found is that more scale spins our flywheel of

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Speaker 8: speed and cost. Earlier this year as part of the

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Speaker 8: Series F, we also announced Stored Labs, which is a

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Speaker 8: very dedicated investment behind robotic deployment. We're partnering with some

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Speaker 8: of the most advanced agentic robotic companies out there, as

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Speaker 8: well as a data foundry. And so now as we

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Speaker 8: add more scale, we're not only adding 20 years of

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Speaker 8: operational learnings, we're adding all that volume onto our intelligence

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Speaker 8: and scale flywheel in the business. And so really what

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Speaker 8: happens is packages get faster and cheaper for every Stored customer,

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Speaker 8: not just the new customers. And to the AMS team,

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Speaker 8: they get the extended network of stored. All their customers

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Speaker 8: get our technology, and they also benefit from cheaper and faster.

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Speaker 3: How do you move the boxes? How do you deal

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Speaker 3: with the huge challenge that FedEx and others had of airlines, railroads, trucks?

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Speaker 3: How do you deal with old technology?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, we spent a decade building all of the technology in-house,

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Speaker 8: and that was the hardest part.

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Speaker 4: You nailed it from day one.

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Speaker 8: We looked out, and today it's kind of popular right

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Speaker 8: now in 2026 to say, I'm a physical intelligence and

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Speaker 8: physical AI business. But when we started, physical was... kind

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Speaker 8: of a bad word in venture capital. It was the

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Speaker 8: WeWork days and all these other problems that had occurred.

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Speaker 8: And we said, no, you have to build all the

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Speaker 8: software and all the physical network in one. That's the

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Speaker 8: only way you get prime level delivery. So exactly to

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Speaker 8: your point, we actually spent the first six, seven years

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Speaker 8: of the decade history of Stored really just building that

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Speaker 8: top to bottom, all the WMS, warehouse management, transportation management,

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Speaker 8: labor management, billing management, inventory and demand planning, order orchestration,

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Speaker 8: front-end checkout technology. And really at year seven or eight,

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Speaker 8: once we had built this vertically integrated stack, we reached

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Speaker 8: that point of, ah, it's working. Now we can really

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Speaker 8: add scale to this system and keep closing that gap farther.

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Speaker 8: And that's really what we've been doing. The last four years,

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Speaker 8: we've now grown over 10X.

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Speaker 4: What's the marketplace? I think of delivery. I just think

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Speaker 4: of Amazon. What percentage of that e-commerce market does Amazon

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Speaker 4: control and And then the rest of you guys, what

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Speaker 4: do you guys make up?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, so Amazon spends about $ 212 billion a year in

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Speaker 8: 2025 on delivery just for themselves. And they're 36% of

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Speaker 8: the nearly $ 2 trillion US e-commerce market. And so if

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Speaker 8: you trend that out to the other two thirds, they're

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Speaker 8: largely left behind. Think about your average online experience. It's slow,

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Speaker 8: it's bad tracking, it's unclear returns. And what we really

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Speaker 8: preach to our customers is today, that delivery infrastructure is

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Speaker 8: actually a marketing cost. It's actually a customer acquisition and

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Speaker 8: loyalty cost. And that's what Prime has realized. And others

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Speaker 8: just don't have the infrastructure or scale to achieve that

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Speaker 8: on their own.

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Speaker 3: Interesting. We don't care. OK, I'm looking. You beat Duke

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Speaker 3: by three points. Duke, Georgia Tech. I mean, it was ugly.

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Speaker 3: Then Virginia Tech lost. What are you going to do

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Speaker 3: with Boston College this weekend? You going down there to

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Speaker 3: see the game?

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Speaker 8: I won't be there myself, but as a proud rambling

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Speaker 8: wreck and as a board member, as we were talking about,

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Speaker 8: I do root for every game, and I hope we

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Speaker 8: give it to Boston College this weekend ahead.

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Speaker 3: That was for you, 92.9 FM Boston. Good morning. Sean Henry,

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Speaker 3: thank you so much. Chief Executive Officer, Stored Studio from Georgia.

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Speaker 3: It's just a hugely wonderful place. a wonderful story about

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Speaker 3: a freshman in school saying, I have an idea. Peter Thiel,

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Speaker 3: thank you so much. He is a Thiel scholar. Sean Henry,

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Speaker 3: I should say. Stay with us.

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Speaker 7: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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00:20:59,830 --> 00:21:03,010
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on

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00:21:03,130 --> 00:21:06,380
Speaker 1: Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 1: Or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Damien's here, so we can talk about, you know,

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Speaker 3: Peru's peso curve. But Michael Dean's here. Introduce him. This

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Speaker 3: is just glorious.

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Speaker 4: Michael Dean's the rock star of auto analysts over there. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: in London. For some reason, he's here in New York.

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Speaker 4: I don't know what.

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Speaker 2: I had to steal him and bring him down, Paul.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he is the coolest guy in our city,

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Speaker 2: James Long. I mean, dude, he goes to the paddock

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Speaker 2: and all. He covers Ferrari and Porsche, covers all the

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Speaker 2: great auto companies out of Europe.

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Speaker 4: So I want to ask Michael Dean, if I'm Volkswagen,

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Speaker 4: what am I doing here? I mean, am I into EVs?

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Speaker 4: Am I not into EVs? Do I cut my investment?

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Speaker 4: I'm cutting workforce. I don't know what your European auto

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Speaker 4: company's what the focus is here because the US seems

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Speaker 4: like they backed off from the EVs. We're just going

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Speaker 4: to build the big trucks. That's what sells here in

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Speaker 4: the US. What are the European auto companies doing?

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Speaker 9: You definitely have to be in EVs. So they're certainly

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Speaker 9: going down that road, but they have to restructure. And

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Speaker 9: they just announced the new strategy 2030. And they're going

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Speaker 9: to have to lose another 50,000 jobs. They're going to

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Speaker 9: have to cut capacity. They're going to have to reduce

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Speaker 9: capacity in China as well. So things are really tough

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Speaker 9: for the Europeans.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think the issue is, and this goes, I'm

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Speaker 4: not going to blame Damien on this one.

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Speaker 3: It's the Chinese.

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Speaker 4: I was in Paris for 12 days in the past

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Speaker 4: couple weeks. I probably was in four or five BYD taxis.

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Speaker 4: They're beautiful, aren't they? They're phenomenal.

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Speaker 3: I know.

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Speaker 4: I was in Paris as well.

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Speaker 10: I didn't see you.

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Speaker 4: Oh, well, we don't go to the same spots, my friend.

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Speaker 9: So they also show 50% of the show now is

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Speaker 9: Chinese brands.

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Speaker 4: Is that right?

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Speaker 3: Michael, where Damien lives, I mean, Damien pops out of

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Speaker 3: the garage in the Maserati Gran Turismo, just like Jon Hamm.

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Speaker 3: in the Apple show. So that's like super expensive car.

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Speaker 3: Help us with Europe's luxury cars that so many Americans drive.

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Speaker 3: Like they're in a BMW X5 and they aspire to

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Speaker 3: an X7 or someday I'm going to own a Porsche.

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Speaker 3: It seems like it's just been lost.

437
00:23:08,930 --> 00:23:11,730
Speaker 9: Yeah, I wouldn't call BMW luxury, but certainly for the

438
00:23:11,770 --> 00:23:12,850
Speaker 9: pure luxury.

439
00:23:13,350 --> 00:23:14,670
Speaker 4: That's about as luxury as I go.

440
00:23:14,930 --> 00:23:18,750
Speaker 9: So Ferrari is selling less cars, making more money. The

441
00:23:18,770 --> 00:23:20,409
Speaker 9: same with Lamborghini, same with Bentley.

442
00:23:20,450 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 3: But what the price point, Damien's always talking Maserati and Lamborghini,

443
00:23:25,060 --> 00:23:27,980
Speaker 3: because that's the way he rolls. The price point for

444
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:32,380
Speaker 3: mere mortals down there, I mean, it's really threatened. Right?

445
00:23:32,619 --> 00:23:33,220
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's tough.

446
00:23:33,300 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 9: Prices are going up. So that's not going to change.

447
00:23:37,140 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 2: Well, I think it's those price insensitive buyers out there

448
00:23:39,980 --> 00:23:42,590
Speaker 2: that are really driving up the price for a luxury vehicle. No,

449
00:23:42,630 --> 00:23:45,510
Speaker 2: but seriously, I mean, isn't Porsche going, they're trying to

450
00:23:45,730 --> 00:23:47,410
Speaker 2: eat a little bit of the cake that Ferrari built, right?

451
00:23:47,450 --> 00:23:49,030
Speaker 4: They're going to that super luxury.

452
00:23:49,109 --> 00:23:51,369
Speaker 3: I saw Matt Miller had the, yeah. Oh, my word.

453
00:23:51,470 --> 00:23:54,310
Speaker 9: So the Mission S is their concept, which is going

454
00:23:54,330 --> 00:23:55,910
Speaker 9: to be launched in a couple of years. It's above

455
00:23:55,930 --> 00:23:59,290
Speaker 9: the 911, probably priced about half a million dollars. What

456
00:23:59,310 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 9: a fantastic car. But Tesla stole its thunder. So they

457
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:07,020
Speaker 9: launched the Tesla Roadster on exactly the same day. And

458
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,580
Speaker 9: Porsche can compete with a flying car.

459
00:24:09,780 --> 00:24:13,500
Speaker 4: All right. Let's talk about Tesla. What is this Tesla

460
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:14,900
Speaker 4: story in the marketplace these days?

461
00:24:15,910 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 10: Well, it's flying cars, for one.

462
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 4: Well, you're talking to somebody who has a pilot's license

463
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:21,880
Speaker 4: over here, right?

464
00:24:21,900 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 2: So Mike Dean, you know, David Dwyer, we had a

465
00:24:24,020 --> 00:24:26,139
Speaker 2: lot of pilots up there in BI, very smart people.

466
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,100
Speaker 10: Yeah, so I can certainly fly one.

467
00:24:28,340 --> 00:24:32,340
Speaker 9: But, you know, it's Optimus robots, it's FSD, full-service driving.

468
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 4: Are people still buying that argument?

469
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 10: I think so.

470
00:24:35,180 --> 00:24:36,050
Speaker 3: Look at the valuation.

471
00:24:36,070 --> 00:24:36,979
Speaker 4: They have to. You're right.

472
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:39,990
Speaker 3: Michael Dean, Damien Sassar was two of our brightest at

473
00:24:40,030 --> 00:24:43,070
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence. So, Damien, take this. I'm going to take

474
00:24:43,190 --> 00:24:48,750
Speaker 3: a prosperous country to Indonesia. Yeah. They're buying like 114%

475
00:24:48,750 --> 00:24:50,350
Speaker 3: Chinese cars, right?

476
00:24:52,030 --> 00:24:54,340
Speaker 2: I don't know if Indonesia is the real end market,

477
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 2: but I think what you have to look at when

478
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:57,780
Speaker 2: it comes to autos and it comes to Indonesia is

479
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:00,080
Speaker 2: they are flooding the markets with aluminum right now. And

480
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 2: I think there's a wedge going on in the base

481
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 2: metals complex.

482
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:03,250
Speaker 4: Here we go. Here we go.

483
00:25:03,660 --> 00:25:06,359
Speaker 2: Where you're basically looking at copper supply really falling off

484
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:07,660
Speaker 2: a cliff. And this is going to be a real

485
00:25:07,740 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 2: Q127 story, in my opinion. So, you know, there's just

486
00:25:10,550 --> 00:25:12,869
Speaker 2: not a lot of copper production. We have 14,000 plus

487
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,290
Speaker 2: on LME copper. It's going higher, in my opinion. And

488
00:25:15,310 --> 00:25:17,310
Speaker 2: that's what I'm pricing it to my models. But then

489
00:25:17,350 --> 00:25:19,750
Speaker 2: if you look at aluminium, which, again, another huge input.

490
00:25:20,470 --> 00:25:22,510
Speaker 2: it's going in the other direction. It might break below 3,000.

491
00:25:22,490 --> 00:25:27,090
Speaker 2: The technicals don't look good. And so Indonesia is obviously

492
00:25:27,170 --> 00:25:29,230
Speaker 2: a huge smelter. They're a huge copper producer, a huge

493
00:25:29,290 --> 00:25:32,889
Speaker 2: aluminum producer. It's really their incremental supply that's driving down

494
00:25:32,910 --> 00:25:33,730
Speaker 2: the aluminum price.

495
00:25:33,970 --> 00:25:37,210
Speaker 3: Mike Dean, when I look at Europe and I look

496
00:25:37,430 --> 00:25:41,510
Speaker 3: at the political response to the auto realities you're truly

497
00:25:41,670 --> 00:25:44,830
Speaker 3: expert in, what do you preserve? I mean, Francine talking

498
00:25:44,850 --> 00:25:48,629
Speaker 3: to Merz yesterday of Germany. What do the politicians actually

499
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 3: do about these Chinese realities.

500
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,010
Speaker 9: Well, that's a good point. But finally, the EU has

501
00:25:54,070 --> 00:25:58,250
Speaker 9: done something. So they're putting curbs on hybrids. They're extending

502
00:25:59,170 --> 00:26:02,290
Speaker 9: the emission legislation so you can have combustion cars beyond 2035.

503
00:26:02,290 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 9: So these are small things, but finally, they're doing something.

504
00:26:06,490 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 3: So do you have a winner in all this in Europe,

505
00:26:09,540 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 3: in the US? Does your team have somebody who seems

506
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:17,470
Speaker 3: to be GM yesterday with a $ 20 gazillion share buyback?

507
00:26:17,530 --> 00:26:20,030
Speaker 3: I mean, is there somebody out there that survives?

508
00:26:20,170 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 9: Yeah, if you're not exposed to Europe and the Chinese invasion,

509
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:26,060
Speaker 9: then sure. So GM for one.

510
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 2: Mike, let me ask you this. What are gas prices

511
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,700
Speaker 2: like there? We hear about diesel. We hear about TTF.

512
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,620
Speaker 2: I mean, TTF, not gas, is up, what, 200% now?

513
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 4: I mean, year-to-date.

514
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:40,870
Speaker 2: Talk to us a little bit about, from your perspective,

515
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,370
Speaker 2: are you seeing gas prices being prohibitive? Are people not

516
00:26:44,050 --> 00:26:46,590
Speaker 2: willing to traverse that much? I mean, what are you thinking?

517
00:26:46,850 --> 00:26:48,670
Speaker 9: Yeah, so funny enough, I was driving into the office

518
00:26:48,710 --> 00:26:54,510
Speaker 9: this morning. So, diesel, $ 6. 00. that's still pretty cheap compared

519
00:26:54,710 --> 00:26:57,540
Speaker 9: to Europe. So it's starting to have an impact and

520
00:26:57,580 --> 00:27:02,190
Speaker 9: you're seeing higher take-up of battery electric vehicles. But that's

521
00:27:02,250 --> 00:27:05,020
Speaker 9: morally because the Chinese imports are so cheap rather than

522
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:06,430
Speaker 9: it's the actual fuel price.

523
00:27:06,890 --> 00:27:09,479
Speaker 3: Michael, in England, like if Arsenal wins, do they get

524
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,859
Speaker 3: a ring? Do they get some big, ginormous ring?

525
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:16,160
Speaker 9: It's funny you mention Arsenal because Brighton, my team, beat

526
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 9: them 3-0 a couple of years ago.

527
00:27:18,500 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 3: A couple of years ago. We turned to Dan Sassauer,

528
00:27:22,740 --> 00:27:26,179
Speaker 3: surveillance jeweler, this just out from front office sports. Let

529
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,420
Speaker 3: me hear it. Knick fans can buy one of 200

530
00:27:29,420 --> 00:27:32,730
Speaker 3: replica championship rings for $ 19, 905.

531
00:27:32,290 --> 00:27:32,740
Speaker 4: Is that all?

532
00:27:32,750 --> 00:27:37,790
Speaker 3: Is that all? I don't know if this is legitimate.

533
00:27:37,950 --> 00:27:38,970
Speaker 3: I mean, it looks.

534
00:27:39,470 --> 00:27:40,330
Speaker 10: It's got to be a replica.

535
00:27:40,670 --> 00:27:44,669
Speaker 3: It's front office sports. I need to be careful with this, folks.

536
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:46,379
Speaker 3: But there's your pricing, Paul.

537
00:27:46,430 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 4: How much do you think those rings cost?

538
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:49,660
Speaker 2: Did we get a number on what they actually cost?

539
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,500
Speaker 4: No, I haven't seen that. They were massive.

540
00:27:52,619 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 3: Massive. Yeah.

541
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 4: But those things, Tom, I think that price point will

542
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 4: sell out in a day.

543
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 3: In a day. I wonder if this tweet, I mean,

544
00:27:59,660 --> 00:28:02,830
Speaker 3: there's so much. spam out there. I'm hesitant to say it,

545
00:28:02,890 --> 00:28:05,450
Speaker 3: but it fits with Damien. I mean, Damien would be first.

546
00:28:05,490 --> 00:28:07,250
Speaker 2: Were you guys crying when the banner went up in

547
00:28:07,290 --> 00:28:08,510
Speaker 2: Madison square garden last night?

548
00:28:08,570 --> 00:28:11,490
Speaker 4: I was right next to the one I remember 73.

549
00:28:11,490 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 4: I was nine years old. It was awesome.

550
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:14,180
Speaker 5: Yep.

551
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 4: So I'm surprised you weren't there. Cause all the sleds

552
00:28:16,340 --> 00:28:16,620
Speaker 4: were there.

553
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 3: I'm surprised you weren't there.

554
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,260
Speaker 4: Well, maybe I was. Nah, it was a beautiful night.

555
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:25,780
Speaker 3: Side coming in here with some knowledge, unlike American sport leagues,

556
00:28:26,270 --> 00:28:31,630
Speaker 3: The English Premier League does not issue official championship rings. Instead,

557
00:28:31,690 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 3: winners receive a trophy and 40 silver medals distributed to players, coaches,

558
00:28:38,950 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 3: and staff who make five league appearances.

559
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 4: Okay, all right.

560
00:28:43,860 --> 00:28:45,260
Speaker 3: That's good stuff. Much more equitable.

561
00:28:45,500 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 9: But as I say, watch out for Brighton this season.

562
00:28:47,780 --> 00:28:51,550
Speaker 9: Third in the table. We're definitely a contender. And I

563
00:28:51,570 --> 00:28:52,460
Speaker 9: haven't said that before.

564
00:28:52,810 --> 00:28:55,890
Speaker 4: And Breitner, the mighty fighting, what are they? What's their mascot?

565
00:28:55,950 --> 00:28:56,890
Speaker 3: Seagulls. The seagulls.

566
00:28:57,090 --> 00:28:59,350
Speaker 4: The seagulls. You got that now?

567
00:28:59,370 --> 00:29:01,210
Speaker 3: And they're doing better than Tottenham, right?

568
00:29:01,470 --> 00:29:03,610
Speaker 10: Well, everybody's doing better than Tottenham.

569
00:29:03,710 --> 00:29:07,469
Speaker 3: I needed that. Mike Dean, go away. The tots are

570
00:29:07,550 --> 00:29:10,410
Speaker 3: ascended and they will do fine. This is a real treat, folks.

571
00:29:10,450 --> 00:29:12,650
Speaker 3: We never, I mean, he's too, he can't come on

572
00:29:12,670 --> 00:29:12,930
Speaker 3: with us.

573
00:29:13,010 --> 00:29:14,510
Speaker 4: No, no, he's too busy.

574
00:29:14,810 --> 00:29:16,630
Speaker 3: He's too busy. I mean, he doesn't speak to us.

575
00:29:16,670 --> 00:29:17,330
Speaker 10: No, his people.

576
00:29:17,430 --> 00:29:22,130
Speaker 3: Davian Sassauer, Michael Dean of Bloomberg Intelligence. truly read and

577
00:29:22,190 --> 00:29:25,460
Speaker 3: listened to across all of global wall.

578
00:29:25,260 --> 00:29:29,860
Speaker 1: Street this is the bloomberg surveillance podcast available on apple

579
00:29:30,020 --> 00:29:34,220
Speaker 1: spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts listen live

580
00:29:34,330 --> 00:29:38,630
Speaker 1: each weekday 7 to 10 a.m eastern on bloomberg.com the

581
00:29:38,750 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: iheart radio app and the Bloomberg Business app. You can

582
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 1: also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always

583
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:47,900
Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Terminal.